Galveston County District Attorney Kurt Sistrunk told Criss Wednesday his office only this week received the recordings.<|endoftext|>مایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله آزاد سازی مالی، ساختار بازار و نفوذ اعتباری

چکیده انگلیسی

مقدمه انگلیسی

The last three decades have witnessed a wave of financial liberalization that has increased less developed countries’ access to international capital markets and to foreign financial banks. Financial liberalization was regarded as a means to foster competition in the financial sector, increasing access to credit for firms. As a result, an increased growth rate was expected. In some countries this was observed (Claessens et al., 2001 and Micco et al., 2007). In others, while the access and conditions faced by larger firms improved, the effects on smaller firms have been mixed or negative. For example, focusing on a specific type of liberalization, i.e., the entry of foreign banks, the study of Gormley (2010) for India showed a reduction in lending to small and medium enterprises after financial liberalization. What could explain this wide divergence in the results of financial liberalization? We suggest that one possible explanation for this contradictory evidence is that the impact of financial liberalization depends on the market structure of the domestic banking system prior to liberalization. Assume that financial liberalization is defined as the entry of foreign banks coupled to improved access to international capital markets. We show that if the domestic banking market is competitive, financial liberalization leads to the expected positive results. On the other hand, when markets are initially non-competitive, liberalization can lead to the exclusion of smaller (or weaker) businesses from the credit market, while the stronger companies are served by international banks. Thus, we show that the ex ante competitive situation in the financial market can explain the diverging observations on the effects of financial liberalization. The proponents of financial liberalization have argued that the entry of foreign banks would reduce costs by the use of improved financial technology; because they would demand improved financial regulation; and because they would be less corrupt and would not lend to related firms in banking conglomerates. Opponents of liberalization pointed out that foreign entrants are at a disadvantage because they have less information about clients and the domestic legal system, and because their lobbying capacity is lower than that of domestic banks. One of the implications of the informational disadvantages is that for foreign banks, the entrepreneurial rent received by entrepreneurs should be higher, ceteris paribus, than for domestic banks. Since increased competition by foreign banks will weaken domestic banks and reduce their lending, these two effects could combine to reduce total lending in the economy post-liberalization. This combination of advantages and weaknesses suggests that foreign banks tend to cherry pick firms with good internal accounting systems, solid financial positions and therefore a low probability of default. Given their better technology and lower loan origination costs, they can outcompete the domestic banks for these clients, leaving the riskier and more information-demanding clients for domestic banks, which can apply their relatively better monitoring ability. In these conditions, each type of bank specializes in the type of firm in which it has a comparative advantage, and this should lead to an increase in efficient lending. However, this conclusion rests on the assumption that the entry of foreign banks reduces or does not alter the cost of funds for domestic banks. If the entry of foreign banks were to raise the cost of funds for domestic banks, the effects of entry would be different. In particular, if the domestic banking system is imperfectly competitive, and the cost of funds is initially kept artificially low due to the lack of alternatives for savers, post-liberalization, the increased access to the international financial markets and the increased competition for domestic funds by foreign banks leads to an increase in the cost of funds for local banks. This may lead to a reduction in lending to the riskiest clients. There is empirical evidence for these effects. Rashid (2011), using data from 81 developing and emerging countries for the period 1995–2009, shows that foreign banks compete for deposits with the domestic banking system, and that this leads to an increase in the reliance on costlier (and more volatile) non-deposit funds by domestic banks. Moreover, the author presents evidence that increases in the share of deposits by foreign banks leads to a decline in credit to the private sector. Another paper, by Detriagache et al. (2008), uses data from the banking sector of 62 low income countries. They show that increased foreign bank penetration is associated with lower access to credit by the private sector and that foreign banks have a safer (less risky) loan portfolio.1 Why would foreign banks lend to a less risky loan portfolio than domestic banks in emerging economies? One possibility is that there are costs associated to operating in countries in environments that are different, with legal systems that are often inefficient or corrupt. In this regard, Mian (2006) has shown, using a sample of 80.000 loans in Pakistan, that the greater the physical and cultural distance between the headquarters of a foreign bank and a local subsidiary, the less willing they are to grant loans that are informationally complex, even though they are willing to lend to sound firms requiring relational contracting. Greater distance also makes banks less likely to bilaterally renegotiate loan contracts, and less successful at recovering from defaults. Several models have used information problems as the basis of their explanations for the observed phenomena. In their paper, Detriagache et al. (2008) propose a model in which, prior to the entry of foreign banks, domestic banks may find it convenient to reduce monitoring costs by pooling creditors, therefore implicitly providing a subsidy to weaker borrowers. When foreign banks arrive, with improved ability to screen hard numerical information, they compete in advantageous conditions for the financial needs of larger firms. This produces a segmentation of the credit market, reducing the average quality of firms being pooled by domestic banks and, under certain conditions on the monitoring cost, a pooling equilibrium is no longer feasible. In a separating equilibrium, loans become too expensive for weak borrowers, who drop out of the market. Foreign bank entry only benefits more transparent firms, while other firms are either indifferent or worse off. Rueda Maurer (2008), using the arguments of Detriagache et al. (2008), notes that different levels of credit protection may lead to credit constraints for opaque small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs), and tests this conclusion in a cross-section of 22 transition countries. Similarly, Gormley (2011) uses a model where information acquisition is relatively more expensive for foreign banks but these banks have a lower cost of funds. Initially, if screening costs are high, there is a pooling equilibrium. This equilibrium is broken by the entry of foreign firms, which cream-skim the firms that can use large amounts of capital (so that the lower financing cost of foreign banks offsets their higher screening costs), lowering the average quality of firms that remain for domestic banks. Now pooling may not be feasible and if screening costs are high, some banks exit the market, reducing lending to weaker firms. In this paper we present a complementary explanation for the observation that foreign entry may either increase or reduce firm’s access to loans. In our model it is the initial intensity of competition in the domestic financial market that drives the results. Consider a continuum of potential entrepreneurs with different wealth levels, who can invest in risky projects but whose individual assets are insufficient to carry out their projects without a loan from the credit market. Moreover, the ownership of assets by agents is private information and there is ex-post moral hazard, modeled as an incomplete verifiability of returns. The fact that a share of the returns is non-verifiable ex-post gives rise to entrepreneurial rent, as defined in Holstrom and Tirole (2011). The extent of entrepreneurial rent depends on factors such as the quality of the legal institutions in a country. The moral hazard problem reduces the surplus that can be contracted with a lender to an amount smaller than the surplus of the project. This means that entrepreneurs with small amounts of wealth will not receive loans and will be unable to set up their projects, even though it would be efficient to do so, if the capital were available. Moreover, we assume that domestic banks have the advantage of facing a lower rate of entrepreneurial rents, relative to foreign lenders. This is explained by better knowledge of the idiosyncracies of the legal system, or better monitoring ability due to immediacy. However, foreign banks have the advantage of a lower cost of funds, either because they have better access to less expensive international funds, or because of better financial and administrative technology. Consider a small, closed and capital constrained economy, so that under a competitive domestic financial market, the internal deposit rate is higher than the world rate. When the economy liberalizes, the entry of foreign banks does not change the competitive situation of the internal financial system. However, the supply of loanable funds ceases to be restricted, as the domestic financial system has access to lower cost foreign capital. Since foreign banks have a lower cost of funds, but face higher entrepreneurial rents, they lend to select wealthier entrepreneurs, whose contractible surplus relative to the loan size is higher.2 Therefore, these agents face lower lending costs after entry through two channels: the lower financing costs after liberalization and by the fact that they operate with more efficient foreign banks. The remaining entrepreneurs who gain access to credit operate with domestic banks, which face relatively lower entrepreneurial rents than foreign banks. These entrepreneurs benefit from the lower costs of funds after liberalization because competition transfers the lower rates from banks to borrowers. Moreover, the lower costs of funds leads to an increase in the number of potential entrepreneurs with access to loans for their projects. With a supply of capital that is no longer constrained by domestic

مایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله آزاد سازی مالی، ساختار بازار و نفوذ اعتباری

چکیده انگلیسی

مقدمه انگلیسی

The last three decades have witnessed a wave of financial liberalization that has increased less developed countries’ access to international capital markets and to foreign financial banks. Financial liberalization was regarded as a means to foster competition in the financial sector, increasing access to credit for firms. As a result, an increased growth rate was expected. In some countries this was observed (Claessens et al., 2001 and Micco et al., 2007). In others, while the access and conditions faced by larger firms improved, the effects on smaller firms have been mixed or negative. For example, focusing on a specific type of liberalization, i.e., the entry of foreign banks, the study of Gormley (2010) for India showed a reduction in lending to small and medium enterprises after financial liberalization. What could explain this wide divergence in the results of financial liberalization? We suggest that one possible explanation for this contradictory evidence is that the impact of financial liberalization depends on the market structure of the domestic banking system prior to liberalization. Assume that financial liberalization is defined as the entry of foreign banks coupled to improved access to international capital markets. We show that if the domestic banking market is competitive, financial liberalization leads to the expected positive results. On the other hand, when markets are initially non-competitive, liberalization can lead to the exclusion of smaller (or weaker) businesses from the credit market, while the stronger companies are served by international banks. Thus, we show that the ex ante competitive situation in the financial market can explain the diverging observations on the effects of financial liberalization. The proponents of financial liberalization have argued that the entry of foreign banks would reduce costs by the use of improved financial technology; because they would demand improved financial regulation; and because they would be less corrupt and would not lend to related firms in banking conglomerates. Opponents of liberalization pointed out that foreign entrants are at a disadvantage because they have less information about clients and the domestic legal system, and because their lobbying capacity is lower than that of domestic banks. One of the implications of the informational disadvantages is that for foreign banks, the entrepreneurial rent received by entrepreneurs should be higher, ceteris paribus, than for domestic banks. Since increased competition by foreign banks will weaken domestic banks and reduce their lending, these two effects could combine to reduce total lending in the economy post-liberalization. This combination of advantages and weaknesses suggests that foreign banks tend to cherry pick firms with good internal accounting systems, solid financial positions and therefore a low probability of default. Given their better technology and lower loan origination costs, they can outcompete the domestic banks for these clients, leaving the riskier and more information-demanding clients for domestic banks, which can apply their relatively better monitoring ability. In these conditions, each type of bank specializes in the type of firm in which it has a comparative advantage, and this should lead to an increase in efficient lending. However, this conclusion rests on the assumption that the entry of foreign banks reduces or does not alter the cost of funds for domestic banks. If the entry of foreign banks were to raise the cost of funds for domestic banks, the effects of entry would be different. In particular, if the domestic banking system is imperfectly competitive, and the cost of funds is initially kept artificially low due to the lack of alternatives for savers, post-liberalization, the increased access to the international financial markets and the increased competition for domestic funds by foreign banks leads to an increase in the cost of funds for local banks. This may lead to a reduction in lending to the riskiest clients. There is empirical evidence for these effects. Rashid (2011), using data from 81 developing and emerging countries for the period 1995–2009, shows that foreign banks compete for deposits with the domestic banking system, and that this leads to an increase in the reliance on costlier (and more volatile) non-deposit funds by domestic banks. Moreover, the author presents evidence that increases in the share of deposits by foreign banks leads to a decline in credit to the private sector. Another paper, by Detriagache et al. (2008), uses data from the banking sector of 62 low income countries. They show that increased foreign bank penetration is associated with lower access to credit by the private sector and that foreign banks have a safer (less risky) loan portfolio.1 Why would foreign banks lend to a less risky loan portfolio than domestic banks in emerging economies? One possibility is that there are costs associated to operating in countries in environments that are different, with legal systems that are often inefficient or corrupt. In this regard, Mian (2006) has shown, using a sample of 80.000 loans in Pakistan, that the greater the physical and cultural distance between the headquarters of a foreign bank and a local subsidiary, the less willing they are to grant loans that are informationally complex, even though they are willing to lend to sound firms requiring relational contracting. Greater distance also makes banks less likely to bilaterally renegotiate loan contracts, and less successful at recovering from defaults. Several models have used information problems as the basis of their explanations for the observed phenomena. In their paper, Detriagache et al. (2008) propose a model in which, prior to the entry of foreign banks, domestic banks may find it convenient to reduce monitoring costs by pooling creditors, therefore implicitly providing a subsidy to weaker borrowers. When foreign banks arrive, with improved ability to screen hard numerical information, they compete in advantageous conditions for the financial needs of larger firms. This produces a segmentation of the credit market, reducing the average quality of firms being pooled by domestic banks and, under certain conditions on the monitoring cost, a pooling equilibrium is no longer feasible. In a separating equilibrium, loans become too expensive for weak borrowers, who drop out of the market. Foreign bank entry only benefits more transparent firms, while other firms are either indifferent or worse off. Rueda Maurer (2008), using the arguments of Detriagache et al. (2008), notes that different levels of credit protection may lead to credit constraints for opaque small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs), and tests this conclusion in a cross-section of 22 transition countries. Similarly, Gormley (2011) uses a model where information acquisition is relatively more expensive for foreign banks but these banks have a lower cost of funds. Initially, if screening costs are high, there is a pooling equilibrium. This equilibrium is broken by the entry of foreign firms, which cream-skim the firms that can use large amounts of capital (so that the lower financing cost of foreign banks offsets their higher screening costs), lowering the average quality of firms that remain for domestic banks. Now pooling may not be feasible and if screening costs are high, some banks exit the market, reducing lending to weaker firms. In this paper we present a complementary explanation for the observation that foreign entry may either increase or reduce firm’s access to loans. In our model it is the initial intensity of competition in the domestic financial market that drives the results. Consider a continuum of potential entrepreneurs with different wealth levels, who can invest in risky projects but whose individual assets are insufficient to carry out their projects without a loan from the credit market. Moreover, the ownership of assets by agents is private information and there is ex-post moral hazard, modeled as an incomplete verifiability of returns. The fact that a share of the returns is non-verifiable ex-post gives rise to entrepreneurial rent, as defined in Holstrom and Tirole (2011). The extent of entrepreneurial rent depends on factors such as the quality of the legal institutions in a country. The moral hazard problem reduces the surplus that can be contracted with a lender to an amount smaller than the surplus of the project. This means that entrepreneurs with small amounts of wealth will not receive loans and will be unable to set up their projects, even though it would be efficient to do so, if the capital were available. Moreover, we assume that domestic banks have the advantage of facing a lower rate of entrepreneurial rents, relative to foreign lenders. This is explained by better knowledge of the idiosyncracies of the legal system, or better monitoring ability due to immediacy. However, foreign banks have the advantage of a lower cost of funds, either because they have better access to less expensive international funds, or because of better financial and administrative technology. Consider a small, closed and capital constrained economy, so that under a competitive domestic financial market, the internal deposit rate is higher than the world rate. When the economy liberalizes, the entry of foreign banks does not change the competitive situation of the internal financial system. However, the supply of loanable funds ceases to be restricted, as the domestic financial system has access to lower cost foreign capital. Since foreign banks have a lower cost of funds, but face higher entrepreneurial rents, they lend to select wealthier entrepreneurs, whose contractible surplus relative to the loan size is higher.2 Therefore, these agents face lower lending costs after entry through two channels: the lower financing costs after liberalization and by the fact that they operate with more efficient foreign banks. The remaining entrepreneurs who gain access to credit operate with domestic banks, which face relatively lower entrepreneurial rents than foreign banks. These entrepreneurs benefit from the lower costs of funds after liberalization because competition transfers the lower rates from banks to borrowers. Moreover, the lower costs of funds leads to an increase in the number of potential entrepreneurs with access to loans for their projects. With a supply of capital that is no longer constrained by domestic supply, there is an increase in the number of entrepreneurs that receive funding. However, when the initial market structure is one of


AN inquest into the car crash that killed Princess Diana will be held January 6, the royal family's coroner announced overnight.<|endoftext|>2010 (see Table S-3, p. 6). As Pete Peterson will tell you, it is this $56 trillion fiscal exposure that will bankrupt the United States.

    My suggestion for “something” would be to first gift the federal government’s common shares (including voting rights) in the troubled banks to the American People, and then contribute them to the Social Security and Medicare trust funds on their behalf. Like David Swensen’s “equity-oriented” Yale Endowment Fund and taking advantage of what Albert Einstein called the more powerful force in the universe (compound interest), capital appreciation and common stock dividends over a 75-year horizon would go a long way towards curing the $56 trillion fiscal exposure of the federal entitlement trust funds.

    Another suggestion to would be for the federal entitlement trust funds to invest in the AAA-rated, TALF asset-backed securities (which with leverage from the Fed could have returns of up to 20%). Wow! So not only would these ABSs throw off massive amounts of interest income to finance Social Security & Medicare disbursements, but their investment by the federal entitlement trust funds would create such a monster demand that it will certainly restart the ABS markets of the shadow banking system.

  29. Returning to my first suggestion above, to “fix the financial system” I would have created ultra-clean new banks with tabula rasa (zero legacy) loan portfolios under the resolution authority of “prompt corrective action” by putting the entire loan portfolio (legacy & toxic) of troubled old banks into conservatorship for orderly liquidation (sort of like runoff mode for insurance companies). (The ultra-clean new banks would own the operating assets of the troubled old banks.)

    Why the *entire* loan portfolio? First, the FDIC would not need to go through the labor-intensive determination of going through a bank’s portfolio loan by loan to see which now-performing loan could become toxic. Second, under the watchful eye and heavy hand of bank regulators, equity investment in “virgin” ultra-clean new banks would be safe and suitable for the federal entitlement funds. Third, an ultra-clean bank with a tabula rasa portfolio means that it would have no excuse not to lend to creditworthy borrowers (Blanchard’s chart 12 on credit standards). Under the Fed’s 10% reserve ratio a $100 billion capitalization could have created $1 trillion in fresh lending capacity overnight! Fourth, bank profits from spread income due to the Fed’s near-zero QE interest environment and zero exposure to credit bubble-vintage legacy loans would have provided *lush* common stock dividends for the federal entitlement trust funds.

    Thus just like killing two birds with one stone, for the same issuance of federal debt, President Obama could have recapitalized the banks and cured the $56 trillion fiscal exposure of the Social Security and Medicare funds. In fact, because it would avoid touching the third rail of committing political suicide by raising taxes and/or cutting benefits, Congress should have been more the eager to fund the trillions necessary to give the finance system a “fresh start” recapitalization.

    Also note that a semi-permanent, passive, diffused ownership stake by the American people (including voting rights) solves the nationalization issue of corporate control, and the problem of exit policy (Blanchard’s chart 14).

    Unfortunately the second suggestion of ultra-clean new banks is now foreclosed by Geithner’s stress test. However two things that could derail it are:
    1) the horizon of the stress test was to the end of 2010 [1]. This means that it completely ignored the pay-option ARM default wave, which assuming a 12 month delay from rescheduled resets (whose negative amortization ceilings are now slowed by ultra-low interest rates) will not peak until summer 2012 [2] [3].
    2) political outrage over the Private-Public Investment Partnership (PPIP) where the FDIC could be abused as a toxic waste dump to dispose of now performing (and thus high priced) but later to toxic pay-option ARMs and their RMBS and CMO derivatives [4 [5]. In fact maybe PPIP may not be needed since the 19 banks passed their stress tests relatively unscathed!

    In closing, apologies to Simon and James for repeating my “pet policy” solution but I did so because it addresses all of Blanchard’s concerns. Nevertheless, the federal government’s common stock shares in say, CitiGroup and Bank of American can still be gifted to the American people and then contributed to the Social Security & Medicare trust funds on their behalf; and these federal entitlement trust funds can still invest in AAA-rated TALF asset-backed securities, which would have the salutary benefit of creating monster demand thereby restarting the ABS markets of the shadow banking system.

    The missed opportunity though is that like killing two birds with one stone, the same issuance of now low-interest federal debt could have been used to fix the US financial system and the $56 trillion fiscal exposure of the US federal entitlement trust funds–thereby providing relief for the federal budget. Why so much silo thinking by Geithner, Summers & Co.? All this to save the unsecured creditors of troubled banks?

    [1] See footnote 7 on page 8 of the Fed’s “Supervisory Capital Assessment Program: Overview of Results” (May 7, 2009). My guess is that the Fed DID NOT COUNT the 2011 and 2012 pay-option ARM resets in its stress tests. Like being in the eye of a hurricane, 2009 and early 2010 will be a quiescent period for residential real estate defaults.
    [2] Gopalm, Prashant, “Good News: Option ARM Resets Delayed,” Business Week, April 16, 2009 (see chart for reset schedule).
    [3] “A Second Mortgage Disaster On The Horizon? New Wave Of Mortgage Rate Adjustments Could Force More Homeowners To Default,” CBS 60 Minutes [video], December 14, 2008.
    [4] Christie, Rebecca, “FDIC May Let Investors Buy Toxic Assets Without Treasury Stake,” Bloomberg, April 30, 2009.
    [5] “The Greatest Boondoggle in History: Banks Buoyed at Taxpayers’ Expense,” Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker [video], Posted May 08, 2009 (“While much of the focus is on the stress tests and banks’ efforts to raise cash, the real story is Geithner’s Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP), says William Black, an Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. The PPIP is the “greatest boondoggle in the history of the world,” says Black, a former bank regulator who was counsel to the Federal Home Loan Bank Board during the S&L crisis. As occurred during the S&L era, Black says the PPIP will allow banks to exchange “trash for cash” and turn “real losses into faulty gains.” If the goal of Tim Geithner and other regulators was “to rip off the American taxpayer for the benefit of the least-deserving wealthiest people you can imagine, well–mission accomplished,” Black says.”)

  30. that’s kind of it, but the dollar wouldn’t be a competitive means of exchange without the backing of the us government which is in turn backed by the ability of the government to tax its citizens.

    dollars carry implicit insurance in that respect — the insurance is the competitive advantage.

    of course that has a problem — because of this the currency gets overvalued, which creates a lot of distortions, which has the potential of causing the currency to become less valuable.

  31. Coffee Boy

    Actually all of those. Regardless of your opinion on how they conducted their jobs within the public spotlight (as prominent politicians, civil servants, and businesspeople), they have much more of a firsthand knowledge about the demands of balancing politics and economics than any sideline pundit ever will. Prof. Johnson obviously is not a “sidelined pundit” having been chief economist at the IMF, but my point is that you don’t have to agree with someone’s politics for them to make a good professor. I would love to attend a course taught by every single one of the people you mentioned above. I may not agree with all their views, but I will always appreciate that their opinions are battle-tested, and taht they had a job that involved “being involved.” There are too many people whose job is glorified punditry…say what you want about the financial elite and financial oligarchy…they are still adding a LOT more value than the talking heads on CNBC.

  32. CANADA is a modern country that has reduced both the total debt and % of GDP Coffee Boy

    It takes a bunch of things for that to happen though. As best as I can tell the top 3 are:

    1) You need moderately high taxes (empirically speaking lower taxes = more spending since there is no “cost”, politicians compete on who can give the most away)

    2) You need a moderate liberal government to hold power for a long time. See point 1 and what has happened in Canada (and of course the US) when “conservative” politicians take power and cut taxes.

    3) You need meaningful economic activity and a moderate amount of income inequity (too much and you get South America, too little and you get the USSR).

  33. I’m a lifelong Democrat, thanks. I didn’t say

2010 (see Table S-3, p. 6). As Pete Peterson will tell you, it is this $56 trillion fiscal exposure that will bankrupt the United States.

    My suggestion for “something” would be to first gift the federal government’s common shares (including voting rights) in the troubled banks to the American People, and then contribute them to the Social Security and Medicare trust funds on their behalf. Like David Swensen’s “equity-oriented” Yale Endowment Fund and taking advantage of what Albert Einstein called the more powerful force in the universe (compound interest), capital appreciation and common stock dividends over a 75-year horizon would go a long way towards curing the $56 trillion fiscal exposure of the federal entitlement trust funds.

    Another suggestion to would be for the federal entitlement trust funds to invest in the AAA-rated, TALF asset-backed securities (which with leverage from the Fed could have returns of up to 20%). Wow! So not only would these ABSs throw off massive amounts of interest income to finance Social Security & Medicare disbursements, but their investment by the federal entitlement trust funds would create such a monster demand that it will certainly restart the ABS markets of the shadow banking system.

  29. Returning to my first suggestion above, to “fix the financial system” I would have created ultra-clean new banks with tabula rasa (zero legacy) loan portfolios under the resolution authority of “prompt corrective action” by putting the entire loan portfolio (legacy & toxic) of troubled old banks into conservatorship for orderly liquidation (sort of like runoff mode for insurance companies). (The ultra-clean new banks would own the operating assets of the troubled old banks.)

    Why the *entire* loan portfolio? First, the FDIC would not need to go through the labor-intensive determination of going through a bank’s portfolio loan by loan to see which now-performing loan could become toxic. Second, under the watchful eye and heavy hand of bank regulators, equity investment in “virgin” ultra-clean new banks would be safe and suitable for the federal entitlement funds. Third, an ultra-clean bank with a tabula rasa portfolio means that it would have no excuse not to lend to creditworthy borrowers (Blanchard’s chart 12 on credit standards). Under the Fed’s 10% reserve ratio a $100 billion capitalization could have created $1 trillion in fresh lending capacity overnight! Fourth, bank profits from spread income due to the Fed’s near-zero QE interest environment and zero exposure to credit bubble-vintage legacy loans would have provided *lush* common stock dividends for the federal entitlement trust funds.

    Thus just like killing two birds with one stone, for the same issuance of federal debt, President Obama could have recapitalized the banks and cured the $56 trillion fiscal exposure of the Social Security and Medicare funds. In fact, because it would avoid touching the third rail of committing political suicide by raising taxes and/or cutting benefits, Congress should have been more the eager to fund the trillions necessary to give the finance system a “fresh start” recapitalization.

    Also note that a semi-permanent, passive, diffused ownership stake by the American people (including voting rights) solves the nationalization issue of corporate control, and the problem of exit policy (Blanchard’s chart 14).

    Unfortunately the second suggestion of ultra-clean new banks is now foreclosed by Geithner’s stress test. However two things that could derail it are:
    1) the horizon of the stress test was to the end of 2010 [1]. This means that it completely ignored the pay-option ARM default wave, which assuming a 12 month delay from rescheduled resets (whose negative amortization ceilings are now slowed by ultra-low interest rates) will not peak until summer 2012 [2] [3].
    2) political outrage over the Private-Public Investment Partnership (PPIP) where the FDIC could be abused as a toxic waste dump to dispose of now performing (and thus high priced) but later to toxic pay-option ARMs and their RMBS and CMO derivatives [4 [5]. In fact maybe PPIP may not be needed since the 19 banks passed their stress tests relatively unscathed!

    In closing, apologies to Simon and James for repeating my “pet policy” solution but I did so because it addresses all of Blanchard’s concerns. Nevertheless, the federal government’s common stock shares in say, CitiGroup and Bank of American can still be gifted to the American people and then contributed to the Social Security & Medicare trust funds on their behalf; and these federal entitlement trust funds can still invest in AAA-rated TALF asset-backed securities, which would have the salutary benefit of creating monster demand thereby restarting the ABS markets of the shadow banking system.

    The missed opportunity though is that like killing two birds with one stone, the same issuance of now low-interest federal debt could have been used to fix the US financial system and the $56 trillion fiscal exposure of the US federal entitlement trust funds–thereby providing relief for the federal budget. Why so much silo thinking by Geithner, Summers & Co.? All this to save the unsecured creditors of troubled banks?

    [1] See footnote 7 on page 8 of the Fed’s “Supervisory Capital Assessment Program: Overview of Results” (May 7, 2009). My guess is that the Fed DID NOT COUNT the 2011 and 2012 pay-option ARM resets in its stress tests. Like being in the eye of a hurricane, 2009 and early 2010 will be a quiescent period for residential real estate defaults.
    [2] Gopalm, Prashant, “Good News: Option ARM Resets Delayed,” Business Week, April 16, 2009 (see chart for reset schedule).
    [3] “A Second Mortgage Disaster On The Horizon? New Wave Of Mortgage Rate Adjustments Could Force More Homeowners To Default,” CBS 60 Minutes [video], December 14, 2008.
    [4] Christie, Rebecca, “FDIC May Let Investors Buy Toxic Assets Without Treasury Stake,” Bloomberg, April 30, 2009.
    [5] “The Greatest Boondoggle in History: Banks Buoyed at Taxpayers’ Expense,” Yahoo! Finance Tech Ticker [video], Posted May 08, 2009 (“While much of the focus is on the stress tests and banks’ efforts to raise cash, the real story is Geithner’s Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP), says William Black, an Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. The PPIP is the “greatest boondoggle in the history of the world,” says Black, a former bank regulator who was counsel to the Federal Home Loan Bank Board during the S&L crisis. As occurred during the S&L era, Black says the PPIP will allow banks to exchange “trash for cash” and turn “real losses into faulty gains.” If the goal of Tim Geithner and other regulators was “to rip off the American taxpayer for the benefit of the least-deserving wealthiest people you can imagine, well–mission accomplished,” Black says.”)

  30. that’s kind of it, but the dollar wouldn’t be a competitive means of exchange without the backing of the us government which is in turn backed by the ability of the government to tax its citizens.

    dollars carry implicit insurance in that respect — the insurance is the competitive advantage.

    of course that has a problem — because of this the currency gets overvalued, which creates a lot of distortions, which has the potential of causing the currency to become less valuable.

  31. Coffee Boy

    Actually all of those. Regardless of your opinion on how they conducted their jobs within the public spotlight (as prominent politicians, civil servants, and businesspeople), they have much more of a firsthand knowledge about the demands of balancing politics and economics than any sideline pundit ever will. Prof. Johnson obviously is not a “sidelined pundit” having been chief economist at the IMF, but my point is that you don’t have to agree with someone’s politics for them to make a good professor. I would love to attend a course taught by every single one of the people you mentioned above. I may not agree with all their views, but I will always appreciate that their opinions are battle-tested, and taht they had a job that involved “being involved.” There are too many people whose job is glorified punditry…say what you want about the financial elite and financial oligarchy…they are still adding a LOT more value than the talking heads on CNBC.

  32. CANADA is a modern country that has reduced both the total debt and % of GDP Coffee Boy

    It takes a bunch of things for that to happen though. As best as I can tell the top 3 are:

    1) You need moderately high taxes (empirically speaking lower taxes = more spending since there is no “cost”, politicians compete on who can give the most away)

    2) You need a moderate liberal government to hold power for a long time. See point 1 and what has happened in Canada (and of course the US) when “conservative” politicians take power and cut taxes.

    3) You need meaningful economic activity and a moderate amount of income inequity (too much and you get South America, too little and you get the USSR).

  33. I’m a lifelong Democrat, thanks. I didn’t say “overseeing the financial industry” was a prerequisite to being one of the top political economy experts. But if you’re going to


il too, but there is more possibility going by trend in such firms.
    d) I think off late retail jewellery firms have been boosted by easy availability of equity funding for such companies. Now we are against two things a) possible bubble in gold b) easy availability of equity for retail jewellery which is boosting their rapid expansion. In an informal chat one of my other friend who also supplies to such firms said, easy equity funding and charm of listing is luring many firm to expand rapidly to be able to raise equity in near future.

    2) Continuous increase in gold price itself must have boosted the operating profit, so profit should be discounted to that extent to reflect normalised levels.
    3) The entry barrier in this segment work against the company itself. It will be very difficult for Thangamayil to attract customers from other family owned stores, when it expands in new geography. With cash profit margin varying between 3-5% in the last few years, any pressure on margins or profitability due to decline in gold prices will result in steep decline in profits. Not just gold prices in international market, but even the adverse movement in rupee will impact the gold prices in INR.
    4) Lastly, significant drop though is a black swan event, but with existing leverage (operating and financial) can result in steep losses.

  2. Hi Anil,

    Your arguments are good. I also suspect that a lot of farm credit or MNREGA money is getting diverted to gold. Where I differ from you is that it will continue. Also, even if gold price stabilizes here, Indians are unlikely to stop or delay buying. More because middle class India does not have a more stable/emotional asset class to invest in. Additionally, wedding season buying is probably never going to go away in India.
    Rise in gold prices have definitely helped profits going up, but also we need to remember that high prices has reduced volume growth a great deal. So, over a 3-4 year period I suspect it evens out. Also, the valuations at the current level are reasonable.

    The company is expanding in mostly very small towns and cities, so they are taking away customers from unorganized players.

  3. Hi Abhishek,

    Good analysis as always. I see few problems with this company though it appears a value buy at current valuation, so here are my 2 cents.

    1. Rapid expansion in a bid to grow manifold overnight. The announcements on BSE show they have added at least 10 stores in last 6-9 months. As each stores requires huge amount of working capital, this leads to even higher debt and that comes with higher interest rates. We have seen this with Subhiksha, Coutons and Cantabil.
    2. The sales growth will likely be tepid in future as they move out of their traditional stronghold of Madurai. This is a trust based business and it takes a long time to establish it in new places where existing players will give it a tough time. I think this is evident to some extent in numbers where in spite of expansion, the growth is slowing down.
    3. While the jury is still out on gold price trend, the risks are definitely higher at this point and any adverse shock in gold prices will take its toll on Thangamayil due to huge inventory. Agreed that the stock is very liquid, however, they will need to retain this inventory as nobody likes to visit an empty store.
    4. There is no real brand differentiation of this chain with many others operating throughout India so pricing will always be competitive unlike Titan or TBZ where they have successfully built a premium image and demand a premium price in a commodity market.
    5. The rapid expansion by all players, listed or unlisted, is indicative of a bubble. Any demand shock will take its toll on a highly leveraged player like Thangamayil.

    1. Good points Tarun. Here is what I think. Let me know your thoughts...

      1. The difference between a gold retailer and a grocer or apparel retailer is in the merchandise inventory. There is no market for old clothes, so the inventory is marked down heavily for people like Subhiksha, Coutons and Cantabil.GOld, on the other hand, does not lose its value that quickly.
      2. Its focus in more on moving to smaller towns and cities. Out of its total branch network, only a handful (Madurai, Tuticorin, Salem and Coimbatore branches) are in municipal corporations. The rest are in medium-sized towns and some in the rural areas, in places such as
      Dharapuram, Cumbum, Theni, Krishnagiri and Vallakoil.
      3.Gold price is not going down in a hurry till the external economy improves. My take (and I reserve the right to be wrong!!) is that economic recovery is a long way off. So, no immediate threat of gold price collapsing. But it is a key monitorable risk.
      4. Titan, TBZ are targetting urban upper middle class or rich people. These guys are targetting semi-urban/rural middle class and rich. When do you think Titan is going to open a store in rural Tami Nadu? Maybe 10/15 years to go for that. Till then what the people have got is players like Thangamayil and their brethren. Also, what is the brand difference between Titan and TBZ? Nothing to my mind.
      5.The rapid expansion and regular IPO absolutely looks like it will end up in trouble :-) Bubble will form only when the valuation goes through the roof. Bubbles form at 50-60-100 PE. At 8-9 PE, a lot of the risks may be there in the price.

      The point is if I want Titan I have to pay 40 times earnings. Here I have to pay 8 times. Sure there are problems, otherwise this would also be 40 times. Question is, is the possible reward more than the risk. I think it is; for atleast the next 12-15 months. After that will need to reassess.

  4. Sourced from Equitymaster's 5 minute wrap - a email newsletter:-

    The new set of rules by the Basel Committee (Basel III), which mandates capital and regulatory standards for global banks, has re-designated gold. In other words gold has been reclassified as a Tier I asset for commercial banks from a Tier III capital under Basel I and II. Now, for capital adequacy purposes, banks need to assign weights to Tier I, II and II capital. As Tier III capital, gold was earlier given a weightage of 50%. So, Rs 100 worth of gold was valued at Rs 50 earlier. But under Basel III, gold is treated as Tier I capital and accounted at full value. So instead of buying perpetual bonds or government debt, banks have every reason to buy gold. Basel III comes into effect from 1st January 2013. And needless to say that the demand from commercial banks worldwide is certain to drive up prices. In the past too, demand for gold from central banks has been a major boost for gold prices.

  5. Dear Abhishek, I have been following TJL for a few months and trying to read as much as possible about the company, i feel this company is having a better growth strategy than others and chances of it getting into a very big problem is less compared to others like TBZ due to low fixed working cost compared to others.

    As the gold prices are suddenly going doing and so is the price of this stock, as the net profit for this year will probably be affected. Do you think its a right time to start accumulating this stock.

    Jewellers in Mohali

  7. indian gold jewellery price is getting fluctuated these days, but still it is hard to miss, as it attract the hoards of people towards itself.

Blog Archive<|endoftext|>Your Cart is Empty

Gold Foil Covered Choc Hearts

Gold Foil covered Chocolate Hearts

Delicious milk chocolate hearts covered in Gold foil. Ideal for special events and wedding celebrations, etc. Approx 100 to 125 pieces. Approx 30 mm wide x 35 mm long. Based on the calculations of 8 gm per piece.

"Pre-Order" product. Please allow a few extra days to get these in freshly made for your order.

Customer Reviews

Based on 1 review Write a review<|endoftext|>Mr Kenny and the Hicks family's American lawyer, Michael Ratner, are trying to get access to Mr Hicks before he faces a planned military tribunal.<|endoftext|>The Unbound Artist/The Unintentional Artist

There is no such thing as an unbound artist.

Art is the act of painful creation whereby something that should be easy and natural is bound and therefore forced by necessity through a convoluted and strained escape transforming the very essence of the created thing.

This is why I think human beings are art.

Often the artist is not even aware they are an artist…they unintentionally and through circumstance find themselves thrust into the role. A role of communication through pain and  censorship.

It is a cliche that the best artist is the suffering artist. It is a cliche because it is assumed by many that one can impose suffering on oneself. The reality however is that self-imposed suffering is not suffering but the achievement of a desire. To put it another way – the one who places the shackles upon themselves is not bound but rather free…good art does not come from freedom.

The problem with much art in the west (it has been a problem for a

 bill in various sister concerns to manage sales. I am not suggesting this is happening with Thangamayil too, but there is more possibility going by trend in such firms.
    d) I think off late retail jewellery firms have been boosted by easy availability of equity funding for such companies. Now we are against two things a) possible bubble in gold b) easy availability of equity for retail jewellery which is boosting their rapid expansion. In an informal chat one of my other friend who also supplies to such firms said, easy equity funding and charm of listing is luring many firm to expand rapidly to be able to raise equity in near future.

    2) Continuous increase in gold price itself must have boosted the operating profit, so profit should be discounted to that extent to reflect normalised levels.
    3) The entry barrier in this segment work against the company itself. It will be very difficult for Thangamayil to attract customers from other family owned stores, when it expands in new geography. With cash profit margin varying between 3-5% in the last few years, any pressure on margins or profitability due to decline in gold prices will result in steep decline in profits. Not just gold prices in international market, but even the adverse movement in rupee will impact the gold prices in INR.
    4) Lastly, significant drop though is a black swan event, but with existing leverage (operating and financial) can result in steep losses.

  2. Hi Anil,

    Your arguments are good. I also suspect that a lot of farm credit or MNREGA money is getting diverted to gold. Where I differ from you is that it will continue. Also, even if gold price stabilizes here, Indians are unlikely to stop or delay buying. More because middle class India does not have a more stable/emotional asset class to invest in. Additionally, wedding season buying is probably never going to go away in India.
    Rise in gold prices have definitely helped profits going up, but also we need to remember that high prices has reduced volume growth a great deal. So, over a 3-4 year period I suspect it evens out. Also, the valuations at the current level are reasonable.

    The company is expanding in mostly very small towns and cities, so they are taking away customers from unorganized players.

  3. Hi Abhishek,

    Good analysis as always. I see few problems with this company though it appears a value buy at current valuation, so here are my 2 cents.

    1. Rapid expansion in a bid to grow manifold overnight. The announcements on BSE show they have added at least 10 stores in last 6-9 months. As each stores requires huge amount of working capital, this leads to even higher debt and that comes with higher interest rates. We have seen this with Subhiksha, Coutons and Cantabil.
    2. The sales growth will likely be tepid in future as they move out of their traditional stronghold of Madurai. This is a trust based business and it takes a long time to establish it in new places where existing players will give it a tough time. I think this is evident to some extent in numbers where in spite of expansion, the growth is slowing down.
    3. While the jury is still out on gold price trend, the risks are definitely higher at this point and any adverse shock in gold prices will take its toll on Thangamayil due to huge inventory. Agreed that the stock is very liquid, however, they will need to retain this inventory as nobody likes to visit an empty store.
    4. There is no real brand differentiation of this chain with many others operating throughout India so pricing will always be competitive unlike Titan or TBZ where they have successfully built a premium image and demand a premium price in a commodity market.
    5. The rapid expansion by all players, listed or unlisted, is indicative of a bubble. Any demand shock will take its toll on a highly leveraged player like Thangamayil.

    1. Good points Tarun. Here is what I think. Let me know your thoughts...

      1. The difference between a gold retailer and a grocer or apparel retailer is in the merchandise inventory. There is no market for old clothes, so the inventory is marked down heavily for people like Subhiksha, Coutons and Cantabil.GOld, on the other hand, does not lose its value that quickly.
      2. Its focus in more on moving to smaller towns and cities. Out of its total branch network, only a handful (Madurai, Tuticorin, Salem and Coimbatore branches) are in municipal corporations. The rest are in medium-sized towns and some in the rural areas, in places such as
      Dharapuram, Cumbum, Theni, Krishnagiri and Vallakoil.
      3.Gold price is not going down in a hurry till the external economy improves. My take (and I reserve the right to be wrong!!) is that economic recovery is a long way off. So, no immediate threat of gold price collapsing. But it is a key monitorable risk.
      4. Titan, TBZ are targetting urban upper middle class or rich people. These guys are targetting semi-urban/rural middle class and rich. When do you think Titan is going to open a store in rural Tami Nadu? Maybe 10/15 years to go for that. Till then what the people have got is players like Thangamayil and their brethren. Also, what is the brand difference between Titan and TBZ? Nothing to my mind.
      5.The rapid expansion and regular IPO absolutely looks like it will end up in trouble :-) Bubble will form only when the valuation goes through the roof. Bubbles form at 50-60-100 PE. At 8-9 PE, a lot of the risks may be there in the price.

      The point is if I want Titan I have to pay 40 times earnings. Here I have to pay 8 times. Sure there are problems, otherwise this would also be 40 times. Question is, is the possible reward more than the risk. I think it is; for atleast the next 12-15 months. After that will need to reassess.

  4. Sourced from Equitymaster's 5 minute wrap - a email newsletter:-

    The new set of rules by the Basel Committee (Basel III), which mandates capital and regulatory standards for global banks, has re-designated gold. In other words gold has been reclassified as a Tier I asset for commercial banks from a Tier III capital under Basel I and II. Now, for capital adequacy purposes, banks need to assign weights to Tier I, II and II capital. As Tier III capital, gold was earlier given a weightage of 50%. So, Rs 100 worth of gold was valued at Rs 50 earlier. But under Basel III, gold is treated as Tier I capital and accounted at full value. So instead of buying perpetual bonds or government debt, banks have every reason to buy gold. Basel III comes into effect from 1st January 2013. And needless to say that the demand from commercial banks worldwide is certain to drive up prices. In the past too, demand for gold from central banks has been a major boost for gold prices.

  5. Dear Abhishek, I have been following TJL for a few months and trying to read as much as possible about the company, i feel this company is having a better growth strategy than others and chances of it getting into a very big problem is less compared to others like TBZ due to low fixed working cost compared to others.

    As the gold prices are suddenly going doing and so is the price of this stock, as the net profit for this year will probably be affected. Do you think its a right time to start accumulating this stock.

    Jewellers in Mohali

  7. indian gold jewellery price is getting fluctuated these days, but still it is hard to miss, as it attract the hoards of people towards itself.

Blog Archive<|endoftext|>Your Cart is Empty

Gold Foil Covered Choc Hearts

Gold Foil covered Chocolate Hearts

Delicious milk chocolate hearts covered in Gold foil. Ideal for special events and wedding celebrations, etc. Approx 100 to 125 pieces. Approx 30 mm wide x 35 mm long. Based on the calculations of 8 gm per piece.

"Pre-Order" product. Please allow a few extra days to get these in freshly made for your order.

Customer Reviews

Based on 1 review Write a review<|endoftext|>The Unbound Artist/The Unintentional Artist

There is no such thing as an unbound artist.

Art is the act of painful creation whereby something that should be easy and natural is bound and therefore forced by necessity through a convoluted and strained escape transforming the very essence of the created thing.

This is why I think human beings are art.

Often the artist is not even aware they are an artist…they unintentionally and through circumstance find themselves thrust into the role. A role of communication through pain and  censorship.

It is a cliche that the best artist is the suffering artist. It is a cliche because it is assumed by many that one can impose suffering on oneself. The reality however is that self-imposed suffering is not suffering but the achievement of a desire. To put it another way – the one who places the shackles upon themselves is not bound but rather free…good art does not come from freedom.

The problem with much art in the west (it has been a problem for a long time) is that it is unrestrained and


As part of his deal, Mr. Delainey has agreed to cooperate in the continuing investigation.<|endoftext|>, it might be helpful in the event that you familiarized yourself with these two types to be able to choose which to play with. It may seem difficult to memorize a random number generator’s code, but it will eventually become easier. When you do obtain the hang of it, however, you can generate a number combination that allows you to win.

How exactly to Use Standard Deviation to Your Advantage

How exactly to Use Standard Deviation to Your Advantage

There are many different types of casino games that people play. There exists a game for everyone, no matter who you are or what sort of player you are. These games range from card games to video poker and everything among. Playing any of these games can be highly addictive and folks can lose their lives playing a game or two here and there. You’ll find nothing wrong with playing a casino game a few times, but the best way to learn the rules is to practice them normally as possible.

casino games

There are three main types of casino games: cards, table games, and progressive casino games. Cards include blackjack, baccarat, 카지노 신규 쿠폰 blackjack, roulette, poker, rummy, and bingo. Blackjack, baccarat, and bingo are the most popular ones. All of these games have a residence edge, which means that if you gamble your whole bankroll on one game then you will end up losing more money than you took out. Card games like blackjack, baccarat, roulette, and poker generally have a lower house edge than other types of games.

Some of the earliest types of gambling took place on the land owned by Native Americans. The earliest version of slots was installed onto the Pueblo Indian powwow tables. Today, most of the larger casinos use gadgets for blackjack, roulette, poker, slots, and bingo. In the early days of gambling, some tribes still used them as part of their gaming.

Most table games at today’s casinos are programmed to allow random number generators to choose numbers that will eventually appear during the course of the overall game. Many of these games also use lucky numbers or special cards. While cards have become popular casino games, many of the newer ones incorporate certain computer programs that help the players have a better chance of winning. Even though many of the newer games are based on simple luck, there are always some strategies that can be used to increase the chances of winning.

One of the oldest and most popular casino games is card games. While many people think about blackjack when they think of playing cards at a casino, there are actually a lot of various kinds of card games that are available today. There are progressive slot machines as well as instant lotto games that allow the players to win cash or other prizes. Blackjack may be the most popular card game for the most part casinos, but there are several varieties of it that exist on casino floors. The various types include Omaha, seven-card stud, joker poker, and get-rich-quick.

Because the Internet becomes more frequent throughout most homes, gambling generally has taken a leap into the twenty-first century. Online casinos have allowed many people to take advantage of this growing industry. These gambling venues offer a variety of advantages to players ranging from lower house advantages to great deals on software companies and equipment. Most websites that offer internet casino games do so with the help of software companies that make the chances and house edge for his or her games as accurate as you possibly can.

Probably the most difficult aspects of casino games is the ability to figure out the odds of success. Standard deviation can be used to calculate the chance or opportunity that is involved with any given gamble. Standard deviation uses the deviation of the actual outcome of a set number of trials and compares it to the common of all possible outcomes over the entire history of gambling to find out the true probability of the outcome. When Standard deviation is combined with the odds of winning, then it becomes referred to as pai gow poker.

This technique of computing the expected losses and house advantages helps to quantify casino games and help players better understand how they are performing. In addition, it helps players to know how exactly to maximize their winnings. Paired with analysis skills, the info gathered by the standard deviation can be hugely helpful when making wagers. The house advantage for each game can be hugely high or extremely low according to the standard deviation used to compute it. A skilled gambler can greatly increase his likelihood of winning by maximizing his house advantage.

Advice for COPING WITH a Gambling Problem

Advice for COPING WITH a Gambling Problem

Gambling refers to any activity that occurs in which a reward could be obtained, usually for some kind of award or outcome. Gambling may take many forms, however they all essentially involve some sort of chance. Some individuals play in casinos to win money or to simply pass the time. Other folks are more in to the betting aspect, such as lottery players or sports gamblers.

Gambling as we know it today began because the Roman Empire once the rich people of your day would bet on the results of events. As history progressed, so too did gambling. Gambling has become so widely accepted that there are a multitude of games to play and even more places where one can gamble. Some examples of the forms of gambling include lotteries, bingo, online betting, horse betting, poker, craps, lotto, slot machines, and online slot machines.

For those who have a genuine love of gambling, you might be surprised to hear there are healthier choices than to enjoy the bad habit. Probably the most obvious and popular ways to stop gambling is to not gamble at all. This can do a number of things for you. First, you will feel better about yourself and become less likely to keep doing items that may bring harm to your life in the future. Second, when you have a problem, you might decide that you are actually talented enough to pursue the things that you love rather than giving directly into temptation.

If you decide not to gamble any more, however, there are different ways to approach quitting. One of the easiest ways 온라인 바카라 사이트 to start it is to wait until your “lucky” days are over and use the time off from gambling to evaluate the professionals and cons of continuing. You might find that you miss the thrill of gambling, but in the event that you evaluate it rationally and objectively, you can find definitely times when it really is good to play. By keeping your priorities straight, you can avoid the feelings of detachment that include gambling and continue on together with your life.

A lot of people who gamble choose a type of gambling that involves gambling with something they already have an interest in. The overall game of bingo, for example, includes a long history of being a lotteries favorite. People have a tendency to remember moments of these childhood with bingo halls as being fun and exciting. The mechanics of the overall game aren’t all that not the same as betting on a football or basketball game, so you can see why bingo appears like a logical choice for gambling.

Some gamblers also choose to bet on specific types of gambling events instead of on any type of gambling. These kinds of events include slots, horse races, bingo, video poker, roulette, and other gambling games. You can see why these games appeal to individuals who don’t necessarily have any interest in other types of betting. For instance, if you’re interested in making some quick cash at the casino, you may decide to bet on slots rather than other games. However, if you’d like to create a few dollars by playing video poker on occasion, you’ll want to be able to bet on those instead.

People who do choose to gamble on gambling events like slots or bingo need to remember numerous things. First of all, they have to make sure they will have a w-2g type of account at the casinos they plan to visit. If not, the overall game will be considered an illegal activity in the casinos, despite the fact that the chances of the individual doing anything illegal are low. If you do happen to bet on the incorrect types of events, however, it is possible to wind up facing serious monetary loss.

Finally, people who are coping with a gambling problem need to avoid becoming too mounted on a certain bet. While this might seem like a good idea for some gamblers, it could actually lead to financial disaster. Instead of seeing gambling as something that they have to do in order to survive, some people get so wrapped up in the act of gambling that they find yourself betting things without considering whether or not their money will go somewhere. Ultimately, they may find yourself losing everything that they have bet on. It is important, therefore, to help keep one’s wits about them also to stick to games that offer small odds.

Baccarat – A Fun Solution to Play Online Casino Poker

Baccarat – A Fun Solution to Play Online Casino Poker

Baccarat can be an old, classical card game, however, its rules can frequently be a little confusing to new players. However, once you understand the essential Baccarat rules this simple card game is a lot easier to learn than you might first think. Baccarat has been thought of as a casino game that simply required no real skill to play, however, contrary to this, it does require a certain mental acuity.

baccarat game

The initial

, it might be helpful in the event that you familiarized yourself with these two types to be able to choose which to play with. It may seem difficult to memorize a random number generator’s code, but it will eventually become easier. When you do obtain the hang of it, however, you can generate a number combination that allows you to win.

How exactly to Use Standard Deviation to Your Advantage

How exactly to Use Standard Deviation to Your Advantage

There are many different types of casino games that people play. There exists a game for everyone, no matter who you are or what sort of player you are. These games range from card games to video poker and everything among. Playing any of these games can be highly addictive and folks can lose their lives playing a game or two here and there. You’ll find nothing wrong with playing a casino game a few times, but the best way to learn the rules is to practice them normally as possible.

casino games

There are three main types of casino games: cards, table games, and progressive casino games. Cards include blackjack, baccarat, 카지노 신규 쿠폰 blackjack, roulette, poker, rummy, and bingo. Blackjack, baccarat, and bingo are the most popular ones. All of these games have a residence edge, which means that if you gamble your whole bankroll on one game then you will end up losing more money than you took out. Card games like blackjack, baccarat, roulette, and poker generally have a lower house edge than other types of games.

Some of the earliest types of gambling took place on the land owned by Native Americans. The earliest version of slots was installed onto the Pueblo Indian powwow tables. Today, most of the larger casinos use gadgets for blackjack, roulette, poker, slots, and bingo. In the early days of gambling, some tribes still used them as part of their gaming.

Most table games at today’s casinos are programmed to allow random number generators to choose numbers that will eventually appear during the course of the overall game. Many of these games also use lucky numbers or special cards. While cards have become popular casino games, many of the newer ones incorporate certain computer programs that help the players have a better chance of winning. Even though many of the newer games are based on simple luck, there are always some strategies that can be used to increase the chances of winning.

One of the oldest and most popular casino games is card games. While many people think about blackjack when they think of playing cards at a casino, there are actually a lot of various kinds of card games that are available today. There are progressive slot machines as well as instant lotto games that allow the players to win cash or other prizes. Blackjack may be the most popular card game for the most part casinos, but there are several varieties of it that exist on casino floors. The various types include Omaha, seven-card stud, joker poker, and get-rich-quick.

Because the Internet becomes more frequent throughout most homes, gambling generally has taken a leap into the twenty-first century. Online casinos have allowed many people to take advantage of this growing industry. These gambling venues offer a variety of advantages to players ranging from lower house advantages to great deals on software companies and equipment. Most websites that offer internet casino games do so with the help of software companies that make the chances and house edge for his or her games as accurate as you possibly can.

Probably the most difficult aspects of casino games is the ability to figure out the odds of success. Standard deviation can be used to calculate the chance or opportunity that is involved with any given gamble. Standard deviation uses the deviation of the actual outcome of a set number of trials and compares it to the common of all possible outcomes over the entire history of gambling to find out the true probability of the outcome. When Standard deviation is combined with the odds of winning, then it becomes referred to as pai gow poker.

This technique of computing the expected losses and house advantages helps to quantify casino games and help players better understand how they are performing. In addition, it helps players to know how exactly to maximize their winnings. Paired with analysis skills, the info gathered by the standard deviation can be hugely helpful when making wagers. The house advantage for each game can be hugely high or extremely low according to the standard deviation used to compute it. A skilled gambler can greatly increase his likelihood of winning by maximizing his house advantage.

Advice for COPING WITH a Gambling Problem

Advice for COPING WITH a Gambling Problem

Gambling refers to any activity that occurs in which a reward could be obtained, usually for some kind of award or outcome. Gambling may take many forms, however they all essentially involve some sort of chance. Some individuals play in casinos to win money or to simply pass the time. Other folks are more in to the betting aspect, such as lottery players or sports gamblers.

Gambling as we know it today began because the Roman Empire once the rich people of your day would bet on the results of events. As history progressed, so too did gambling. Gambling has become so widely accepted that there are a multitude of games to play and even more places where one can gamble. Some examples of the forms of gambling include lotteries, bingo, online betting, horse betting, poker, craps, lotto, slot machines, and online slot machines.

For those who have a genuine love of gambling, you might be surprised to hear there are healthier choices than to enjoy the bad habit. Probably the most obvious and popular ways to stop gambling is to not gamble at all. This can do a number of things for you. First, you will feel better about yourself and become less likely to keep doing items that may bring harm to your life in the future. Second, when you have a problem, you might decide that you are actually talented enough to pursue the things that you love rather than giving directly into temptation.

If you decide not to gamble any more, however, there are different ways to approach quitting. One of the easiest ways 온라인 바카라 사이트 to start it is to wait until your “lucky” days are over and use the time off from gambling to evaluate the professionals and cons of continuing. You might find that you miss the thrill of gambling, but in the event that you evaluate it rationally and objectively, you can find definitely times when it really is good to play. By keeping your priorities straight, you can avoid the feelings of detachment that include gambling and continue on together with your life.

A lot of people who gamble choose a type of gambling that involves gambling with something they already have an interest in. The overall game of bingo, for example, includes a long history of being a lotteries favorite. People have a tendency to remember moments of these childhood with bingo halls as being fun and exciting. The mechanics of the overall game aren’t all that not the same as betting on a football or basketball game, so you can see why bingo appears like a logical choice for gambling.

Some gamblers also choose to bet on specific types of gambling events instead of on any type of gambling. These kinds of events include slots, horse races, bingo, video poker, roulette, and other gambling games. You can see why these games appeal to individuals who don’t necessarily have any interest in other types of betting. For instance, if you’re interested in making some quick cash at the casino, you may decide to bet on slots rather than other games. However, if you’d like to create a few dollars by playing video poker on occasion, you’ll want to be able to bet on those instead.

People who do choose to gamble on gambling events like slots or bingo need to remember numerous things. First of all, they have to make sure they will have a w-2g type of account at the casinos they plan to visit. If not, the overall game will be considered an illegal activity in the casinos, despite the fact that the chances of the individual doing anything illegal are low. If you do happen to bet on the incorrect types of events, however, it is possible to wind up facing serious monetary loss.

Finally, people who are coping with a gambling problem need to avoid becoming too mounted on a certain bet. While this might seem like a good idea for some gamblers, it could actually lead to financial disaster. Instead of seeing gambling as something that they have to do in order to survive, some people get so wrapped up in the act of gambling that they find yourself betting things without considering whether or not their money will go somewhere. Ultimately, they may find yourself losing everything that they have bet on. It is important, therefore, to help keep one’s wits about them also to stick to games that offer small odds.

Baccarat – A Fun Solution to Play Online Casino Poker

Baccarat – A Fun Solution to Play Online Casino Poker

Baccarat can be an old, classical card game, however, its rules can frequently be a little confusing to new players. However, once you understand the essential Baccarat rules this simple card game is a lot easier to learn than you might first think. Baccarat has been thought of as a casino game that simply required no real skill to play, however, contrary to this, it does require a certain mental acuity.

baccarat game

The initial version of the game which was found in Europe was a variation on the traditional Italian game, Macao.


"I feel like the weight of the world has been lifted from my shoulders," Ms. McCorvey said at a downtown Dallas news conference.<|endoftext|> can you still eat carbs with the fasting and will it do the same thing? I understand Ketosis and Ketones are better for energy but I can not restrict myself from certain carb type foods for life. I will literally go insane.

  7. Great article, thank you very much. I’ve been trying to eat healthy for quite a while now, but it’s so confusing that everyone tells you differnt “truths” about our bodies and the food we need. I guess everyone needs to kinda find their own way eventually, but your thoughts and experience on the subject are really helpful!

  8. Do you include natural carbs like potatoes or maybe sweet potatoes in your diet? What should we look out for? I am going to make this a simple procedure by having a “produce box” delivered to my home every week!

  9. I first saw your video just less than 2 weeks ago and realized it was one of the missing pieces to fix my health issues. Although not confirmed by a doctor (who wanted me on statins despite not showing any likelyhood of heart disease whatsoever) I think I have been suffering from Metabolic Syndrome and insulin resistence due to high carbs and sugar intake. Not overweight but ridiculously sluggish and sleepy with brain fog in the middle of the day wanting to spontaneously pass out if I was not physically active. Going to IF has practically eradicated this problem in one week.

    Since then I have done a ton of research. I wish I had know 20 years ago.

    Doctors seem to know nothing.

Leave a Reply to Joseph Cancel reply

WordPress.com Logo

Google photo

Twitter picture

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Connecting to %s<|endoftext|>Extremely nerdy motherboard manicure you can do yourself

“…you can do yourself”

You have an unrealistically high opinion of my skillz with the nail polish brush, apparently.

1 Like

I was just about to say that. I might be able to get something that detailed on one or two nails of my other hand, but my dominant hand?

I can barely keep the paint on the nails, most of the time.

That said, it is cute, and I would totally wear it.

If you are willing to invest a couple years, I’d suggest training your non-dominant hand. I did it since I was a kid (at the beginning for fun, later I appreciated it a lot when I was doing computer maintenance it was priceless as you cannot flip a chassis so the annoyingly inaccessible screw or connector was reachable by the dominant hand). Incorporate little things into your daily routine (placing things so you reach for them by the nondominant hand, performing noncritical but skill-requiring tasks by it, and so on).

Can be as simple as watching TV with a bag of snacks reachable by left hand. (I exercised my broken shoulder by reaching for snacks. Nothing intense, but integrated to more exercise than the one I had prescribed. My rehab doc marveled how well it worked.) The main trick is to do such things so automatically this way you won’t have to think about it and therefore won’t forget doing it.

On the linked site it says something about using a PCB stencil to create the traces on the nail art:

“This instructalbe will show you how to make stencils that will allow you to make perfect designs on your nails - even with your non dominant hand!”

I’m assuming that it’s easier if instead of painting your nails, you photolithograph them. Perhaps you already dry them under a UV lamp.

But then again, I’ve never done this.

That could be actually doable! Use a colored UV-curable nail polish, overlay with a mask, expose, wipe uncured, overcoat with transparent layer, cure that. Check if the 404nm lasers can be used for local curing instead of the rather puny UV LED arrays. Also, there are 5W and even more powerful UV LEDs, lithography-friendly. Can be mounted on a piece of finned aluminium cut from a decommissioned CPU heatsink.

Another thought: what about some adhesive foil (or thin paper) with e.g. inkjet-printed pattern, and then a transparent gel topcoat?

Yet another thought: leverage a 3d printer. Put a pen or paint dispenser instead of the plastic nozzle, use a hand-holding jig to hold the fingertips in position (those air-drying craft modeling clays are wonderful for such jigs), a touch probe for accurate surface sensing, and the rest is a machine’s job.

Also, how do the UV-curable paints behave? If a thin layer is placed on a silicone paper and cured, and then another layer is placed on top and only partially cured (assuming that this turns the fluid material to sticky one), this could be used for pattern transfers (paint the pattern on the fully cured layer before adding the adhesive layer).

I tried painting my nails a little while back. I liked the concentration and attention to detail it requires (which is really my thing), but just didn’t care enough for the end result to actually do it regularly.

So doing something like this would be an extremely cool project, if I actually gave a damn about how my nails look.

1 Like
<|endoftext|>What is the Nation of Islam?

The Nation of Islam (NoI) was founded in 1930 as a peculiar fusion of Islam and a conservative variant of black nationalism.

The NoI considered whites to be devils and that the answer to American racism was the promotion of black business, racial separation and the creation of a black state.

Black historian Manning Marable describes how the NoI came to be “re-founded" by Louis Farrakhan in 1981:

“[In the 1970s] Most black radicals, influenced heavily by Malcolm X's public separation from and feud with the Nation in 1964-65, still viewed the organisation with a great deal of scepticism.

“… [Elijah] Muhammad [NoI leader] attempted to establish closer links with the US government and other foreign interests in an effort to resolve his group's ongoing political and economic troubles. By making peace with Chicago's political boss, Richard Daley, the Nation was able to eliminate most of the police surveillance and harassment against the sect.

“Imitating the FBI, Nation of Islam members in Philadelphia destroyed that city's Black Panther Party headquarters in retaliation for the group's public advocacy of Malcolm X's ideas.

“In 1972, Muhammad negotiated a $3 million interest-free loan from [Libyan dictator] Colonel Muamar Kadafi which was used to expand Black Muslim enterprises. Despite these gains, the Nation of Islam was still plagued by internal dissension.

“One of the Nation's most dynamic and powerful ministers, Hamaas Abdul Khaalis (Ernest McGhee) denounced the Nation as a corruption of the true faith, Sunni Islam, in 1972. Khaalis declared that Muhammad was ‘a lying deceiver' and stated that their leader ‘who inspired former dope addicts and prostitutes to monklike lives of sacrifice, discipline and hard work, was instead stealing his followers' money and leading them to hell'. For devout defenders of Muhammad, Khaalis' challenge could not remain unanswered. On 18 January 1973, at least five armed gunmen, all members of the Nation of Islam, entered Khaalis' Washington, DC, home and butchered five members of his family.

"With Muhammad's death in 1975, the leadership of the Nation of Islam passed to one of his sons, Wallace. Quickly and efficiently, Wallace Muhammad ‘Malcolmised' the [sect … a] mixture of racial mythology and religious dogma promulgated by Elijah Muhammad was abandoned in favour of the orthodox teachings of Islam; whites were permitted to attend services and in some instances even joined the group…

“Yet these dramatic changes did not occur without more dissension. Louis Farrakhan, perhaps the most charismatic minister in the Nation after the departure of Malcolm X, had quietly left the Nation by 1978. In February 1981, Farrakhan announced the creation of the ‘old’ NoI under his direction, following the tenets of Elijah Muhammad. Several thousand blacks soon flocked to Farrakhan’s group." (Race Reform and Rebellion, p 177-8)

The following Farrakhan has built up since 1978 is particularly suprising because of the part he played in the NoI’s feud with Malcolm X. In December 1964, writing as Louis X, Farrakhan wrote, “Malcolm shall not escape… Malcolm is worthy of death." Malcolm was shot down two months later in February 1965.

In 1994, Malcolm’s widow, Betty Shabazz, was asked on WNBC-TV if she thought Farrakhan had anything to do with her husband’s killing. She answered: "Of course. Yes… Nobody kept it a secret. It was a badge of honour. Everybody talked about it. Yes."

Moreover, Farrakhan’s NoI has continued Elijah Muhammad's tradition of links with the fascist right — believing that the Nazis, who also want racial separation, have something in common with the NoI.

In June 1961 a delegation of American Nazi Party members attended the NoI’s convention in Washington DC. In 1962 Nazi Party leader George Lincoln Rockwell, dressed in full Nazi regalia, declared to

 can you still eat carbs with the fasting and will it do the same thing? I understand Ketosis and Ketones are better for energy but I can not restrict myself from certain carb type foods for life. I will literally go insane.

  7. Great article, thank you very much. I’ve been trying to eat healthy for quite a while now, but it’s so confusing that everyone tells you differnt “truths” about our bodies and the food we need. I guess everyone needs to kinda find their own way eventually, but your thoughts and experience on the subject are really helpful!

  8. Do you include natural carbs like potatoes or maybe sweet potatoes in your diet? What should we look out for? I am going to make this a simple procedure by having a “produce box” delivered to my home every week!

  9. I first saw your video just less than 2 weeks ago and realized it was one of the missing pieces to fix my health issues. Although not confirmed by a doctor (who wanted me on statins despite not showing any likelyhood of heart disease whatsoever) I think I have been suffering from Metabolic Syndrome and insulin resistence due to high carbs and sugar intake. Not overweight but ridiculously sluggish and sleepy with brain fog in the middle of the day wanting to spontaneously pass out if I was not physically active. Going to IF has practically eradicated this problem in one week.

    Since then I have done a ton of research. I wish I had know 20 years ago.

    Doctors seem to know nothing.

Leave a Reply to Joseph Cancel reply

WordPress.com Logo

Google photo

Twitter picture

Facebook photo

Connecting to %s<|endoftext|>Extremely nerdy motherboard manicure you can do yourself

“…you can do yourself”

You have an unrealistically high opinion of my skillz with the nail polish brush, apparently.

1 Like

I was just about to say that. I might be able to get something that detailed on one or two nails of my other hand, but my dominant hand?

I can barely keep the paint on the nails, most of the time.

That said, it is cute, and I would totally wear it.

If you are willing to invest a couple years, I’d suggest training your non-dominant hand. I did it since I was a kid (at the beginning for fun, later I appreciated it a lot when I was doing computer maintenance it was priceless as you cannot flip a chassis so the annoyingly inaccessible screw or connector was reachable by the dominant hand). Incorporate little things into your daily routine (placing things so you reach for them by the nondominant hand, performing noncritical but skill-requiring tasks by it, and so on).

Can be as simple as watching TV with a bag of snacks reachable by left hand. (I exercised my broken shoulder by reaching for snacks. Nothing intense, but integrated to more exercise than the one I had prescribed. My rehab doc marveled how well it worked.) The main trick is to do such things so automatically this way you won’t have to think about it and therefore won’t forget doing it.

On the linked site it says something about using a PCB stencil to create the traces on the nail art:

“This instructalbe will show you how to make stencils that will allow you to make perfect designs on your nails - even with your non dominant hand!”

I’m assuming that it’s easier if instead of painting your nails, you photolithograph them. Perhaps you already dry them under a UV lamp.

But then again, I’ve never done this.

That could be actually doable! Use a colored UV-curable nail polish, overlay with a mask, expose, wipe uncured, overcoat with transparent layer, cure that. Check if the 404nm lasers can be used for local curing instead of the rather puny UV LED arrays. Also, there are 5W and even more powerful UV LEDs, lithography-friendly. Can be mounted on a piece of finned aluminium cut from a decommissioned CPU heatsink.

Another thought: what about some adhesive foil (or thin paper) with e.g. inkjet-printed pattern, and then a transparent gel topcoat?

Yet another thought: leverage a 3d printer. Put a pen or paint dispenser instead of the plastic nozzle, use a hand-holding jig to hold the fingertips in position (those air-drying craft modeling clays are wonderful for such jigs), a touch probe for accurate surface sensing, and the rest is a machine’s job.

Also, how do the UV-curable paints behave? If a thin layer is placed on a silicone paper and cured, and then another layer is placed on top and only partially cured (assuming that this turns the fluid material to sticky one), this could be used for pattern transfers (paint the pattern on the fully cured layer before adding the adhesive layer).

I tried painting my nails a little while back. I liked the concentration and attention to detail it requires (which is really my thing), but just didn’t care enough for the end result to actually do it regularly.

So doing something like this would be an extremely cool project, if I actually gave a damn about how my nails look.

1 Like
<|endoftext|>What is the Nation of Islam?

The Nation of Islam (NoI) was founded in 1930 as a peculiar fusion of Islam and a conservative variant of black nationalism.

The NoI considered whites to be devils and that the answer to American racism was the promotion of black business, racial separation and the creation of a black state.

Black historian Manning Marable describes how the NoI came to be “re-founded" by Louis Farrakhan in 1981:

“[In the 1970s] Most black radicals, influenced heavily by Malcolm X's public separation from and feud with the Nation in 1964-65, still viewed the organisation with a great deal of scepticism.

“… [Elijah] Muhammad [NoI leader] attempted to establish closer links with the US government and other foreign interests in an effort to resolve his group's ongoing political and economic troubles. By making peace with Chicago's political boss, Richard Daley, the Nation was able to eliminate most of the police surveillance and harassment against the sect.

“Imitating the FBI, Nation of Islam members in Philadelphia destroyed that city's Black Panther Party headquarters in retaliation for the group's public advocacy of Malcolm X's ideas.

“In 1972, Muhammad negotiated a $3 million interest-free loan from [Libyan dictator] Colonel Muamar Kadafi which was used to expand Black Muslim enterprises. Despite these gains, the Nation of Islam was still plagued by internal dissension.

“One of the Nation's most dynamic and powerful ministers, Hamaas Abdul Khaalis (Ernest McGhee) denounced the Nation as a corruption of the true faith, Sunni Islam, in 1972. Khaalis declared that Muhammad was ‘a lying deceiver' and stated that their leader ‘who inspired former dope addicts and prostitutes to monklike lives of sacrifice, discipline and hard work, was instead stealing his followers' money and leading them to hell'. For devout defenders of Muhammad, Khaalis' challenge could not remain unanswered. On 18 January 1973, at least five armed gunmen, all members of the Nation of Islam, entered Khaalis' Washington, DC, home and butchered five members of his family.

"With Muhammad's death in 1975, the leadership of the Nation of Islam passed to one of his sons, Wallace. Quickly and efficiently, Wallace Muhammad ‘Malcolmised' the [sect … a] mixture of racial mythology and religious dogma promulgated by Elijah Muhammad was abandoned in favour of the orthodox teachings of Islam; whites were permitted to attend services and in some instances even joined the group…

“Yet these dramatic changes did not occur without more dissension. Louis Farrakhan, perhaps the most charismatic minister in the Nation after the departure of Malcolm X, had quietly left the Nation by 1978. In February 1981, Farrakhan announced the creation of the ‘old’ NoI under his direction, following the tenets of Elijah Muhammad. Several thousand blacks soon flocked to Farrakhan’s group." (Race Reform and Rebellion, p 177-8)

The following Farrakhan has built up since 1978 is particularly suprising because of the part he played in the NoI’s feud with Malcolm X. In December 1964, writing as Louis X, Farrakhan wrote, “Malcolm shall not escape… Malcolm is worthy of death." Malcolm was shot down two months later in February 1965.

In 1994, Malcolm’s widow, Betty Shabazz, was asked on WNBC-TV if she thought Farrakhan had anything to do with her husband’s killing. She answered: "Of course. Yes… Nobody kept it a secret. It was a badge of honour. Everybody talked about it. Yes."

Moreover, Farrakhan’s NoI has continued Elijah Muhammad's tradition of links with the fascist right — believing that the Nazis, who also want racial separation, have something in common with the NoI.

In June 1961 a delegation of American Nazi Party members attended the NoI’s convention in Washington DC. In 1962 Nazi Party leader George Lincoln Rockwell, dressed in full Nazi regalia, declared to the NoI Chicago convention: “Elijah Muhammad is to the so-called Negro what Adolf Hitler was to the German people… Heil