GPT3 = 2020 X 10 = chatGPT = 2022 chatGPT X 10 = GPT4 = 2023 Assumption 1: Model/data scaling is progressing for 6 more years (100x * 100x) Assumption 2: Squeeze more juice from the lemon with clever hacks like this (10x) GPT5 = 100,000 GPT4 = 2029 = AGI