Redditors in Recovery: Text Mining Reddit to Investigate Transitions into Drug Addiction
TABLE V: One-Year Survival Probability by Top Drug Mention
['[BOLD] Drug Name Ecstasy', '[BOLD] Surv. Prob. 0.987', '[BOLD] Drug Name fentanyl', '[BOLD] Surv. Prob. 0.820']
We then approximated the addictive potential of certain drugs by measuring the average survival probability of users who share a common drug of choice. The subject is a routine user of Heroin and an active participant in r/Opiates. His top 3 drug utterances are Heroin, oxycodone, and Buprenorphine with Heroin representing approximately 35% of his total drug mentions. Furthermore, LIWC dimensions of the subject’s posts are consistent with Redditors who do not survive 1 year. Our survival model suggests that certain drug utterances were highly explanatory in influencing the probability of substance abuse – for instance, a user with higher Heroin mentions (as a percentage of total drug mentions) is associated with a higher probability of substance abuse, while higher LSD and Ecstasy mentions are associated with lower probabilities. This particular example directly conflicts with the current national drug classifications outlined by the DEA, who classifies drugs into five “schedules” based on their dependence potential as well as the level of accepted medical use. As it currently stands, drugs including Heroin, LSD, marijuana, and Ecstasy are classified as Schedule I, while most other opioids along with cocaine are classified as Schedule II. Our models, however, suggest that the drugs of choice for individuals who are likely to transition are often not the drugs labeled as Schedule I, with the exception of Heroin. In our model, users whose drugs of choice are Ecstasy, LSD, and marijuana have a higher predicted survival rate which may suggest that these drugs could be better classified as Schedule II or lower. Similarly, their lower associated survival probabilities may be justification for a higher classification for drugs like Buprenorphine, oxycodone, and cocaine.