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# A Brief History of Astronomical Brightness Determination Methods at Optical Wavelengths

## Abstract

In this brief article I review the history of astronomical photometry, touching on observations made by the ancient Chinese, Hipparchus and Ptolemy, the development of the concept (and definition) of magnitude, the endeavors of Argelander and Zöllner, work at Harvard at the end of the 19th century, and the development of photography, photomultipliers, and CCD’s and their application to astronomy.

…this brave o’erhanging firmament, this majestical roof fretted with golden fire….

Hamlet, II, ii, 308-310

The following introduction to photometry served as Chapter 1 to my recent University of Washington Dissertation; see Krisciunas (2001) for a summary. Chapter 2 (Krisciunas, Margon, & Szkody 1998) dealt with the identification of objects of interest, in particular RR Lyrae stars, carbon stars, asteroids, and cataclysmic variables, using the photometric system being used for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Chapter 3 involved the confirmation of RR Lyrae candidates from SDSS as bona fide RR Lyrae stars; light curves of six of these can be found in Ivezic et al. (2000). Chapters 4 and 5 (Krisciunas et al. 2000, 2001) dealt with Type Ia supernovae and the use of optical and infrared photometry to determine the extinction of these objects attributable to dust along the line of sight.

The first systematic observations of the heavens which can be considered “scientific” in any sense were carried out by the Chinese as early as the 14th century BC (Needham & Ling 1959, p. 459). During the Tang Dynasty (618$``$904 AD) the Chinese Astronomical Bureau consisted of 50 ranked officials directing as many as 500 to 900 personnel (Deane 1989, p. 139). For many centuries it was typical that their Astronomical Bureau employed three to four dozen “astronomers”. The prime motivation was revision of their luni-solar calendar and the designation of auspicious days for the carrying out of many state rituals. Any observations of the night sky necessarily involved knowledge of the stellar asterisms (i.e. constellations).

By the time Galileo was observing the heavens with a small refractor at the beginning of the 17th century, the Chinese had been recording celestial phenomena for nearly 3000 years. Many of those observations are of use to modern astronomers.

Chinese historical records contain observations of sunspots as far back as the first century BC (Needham & Ling 1959, p. 434), possible naked eye detections of Jupiter’s moon Ganymede in 364 BC (Xi 1981), plus observations of comets, novae, supernovae, and other variable stars (Needham & Ling 1959, p. 423; Clark & Stephenson 1977). The “historical supernovae” occurred in AD 185, 386, 393, 1006, 1054 (what is now the Crab Nebula in Taurus), 1181, 1572 (Tycho’s Supernova), and 1604 (Kepler’s Supernova).111As a final “historical supernova” we might consider Flamsteed’s star number 3 Cas, observed by him in 1680. It is very likely the progenitor of the Cas A supernova remnant (Ashworth 1980).

Clark & Stephenson (1977) discuss at length the Chinese records and try to identify the locations of the progenitors of the supposed supernovae using coordinates of known supernova remnants. Schaefer (1993, 1995, 1996) attempted to determine the peak brightnesses of the possible Type Ia supernovae (those of 185, 1006, 1572, and 1604) and found problems with the interpretation of the historical records, concluding that SN 185 might not even have been a supernova. For example, SN 185 was described to be “as large as half a mat”. Was this a description of its brightness or an admission that it was a non-stellar object such as a comet?

The concept of stellar magnitudes is at least as old as Ptolemy’s Almagest (ca. 137 AD). Ptolemy gives a list of 1022 stars arranged in 48 constellations, with ecliptic coordinates and a magnitude for each star. Ptolemy’s catalogue was based, or largely borrowed (with an incorrect value for precession) from the star catalogue of Hipparchus (ca. 137 BC). The literature on Ptolemy’s star catalogue is quite extensive (see Evans 1998, pp. 264-274), and we will not cover the subject here. Suffice it to say that the our sensory organs and the brain perceive stimuli (such as light, sound, and taste) proportional to the logarithm of the stimulus. This is known as the Weber-Fechner psychophysical law (Herrmann 1984, p. 73; Hearnshaw 1996, p. 73). Stars “of the first order” were called “first magnitude” by Ptolemy (or Hipparchus before him). The faintest stars visible to the unaided eye were designated to be of sixth magnitude.222Weaver (1946, p. 224) suggests that the choice of six magnitudes was probably connected with the use of the sexagesimal system for measuring time and angles.

The magnitude scale was defined in 1856 by Norman Pogson (Hearnshaw 1992) as follows: one star that has an apparent brightness 100 times that of a second star is by definition five magnitudes brighter. Thus, each magnitude corresponds to a ratio of luminosities equal to the fifth root of 100 (roughly 2.512). Even with this definition, there is always the problem of a zero point. One can read about stellar magnitudes, but until one takes a star atlas outside at night and sees what constitutes the brightness of an actual third, or second magnitude star, it is just an abstract number.

While observers through the late nineteenth century might agree on the magnitudes of the stars visible to the unaided eye, large systematic differences could be obtained with respect to stars seen in the telescope eyepiece. For example, Pogson found that Wilhelm Struve’s magnitude 11.9 corresponded with 17.9 of John Herschel, but both correspond to magnitude 15 on today’s scale (Hearnshaw 1992). Still, magnitudes are excellent relative units, since most observers can agree as to which of two stars is brighter.

The ability of the eye to discern differences of brightness allows one to discover and monitor the light curves of variable stars. This is usually called the “Argelander step method” after the German astronomer F. W. A. Argelander (1799$``$1875). Members of organizations such as the American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) use charts prepared from photographic or photoelectric photometry to make visual light curves of many thousands of variable stars, a task of great benefit to professionals needing to know, for example, when a particular dwarf nova has reached outburst so that they might aim an orbiting ultraviolet satellite at it (see Fig. 1).

One of the most impressive projects of the 19th century was the Bonner Durchmusterung, or BD, which contained the positions and magnitudes (to the nearest 0.1 mag) of 324,198 stars north of declination $`2^\mathrm{o}`$ (Ashbrook 1980). It was carried out with a 3.1-inch refractor at the Bonn Observatory under Argelander’s direction and was based on visual observations of stars transiting a reticle in the eyepiece. The telescope was set at a specific declination and the stars were allowed to drift through the field. The observer called off the magnitude and relative declination of each star transiting, and a recorder wrote this down and noted the sidereal time.

The BD was published between 1859 to 1862 and was then extended to southern skies. 133,659 stars with declinations from $`2^\mathrm{o}`$ to $`22^\mathrm{o}`$ were added by 1886, and the Cordoba Durchmusterung, carried out in Argentina and published between 1892 and 1914, added another 578,802 stars with declinations between $`22^\mathrm{o}`$ and $`62^\mathrm{o}`$. It was extended to the South Celestial Pole by 1932.

After its invention by L. J. M. Daguerre (1787$``$1851) and J. N. Niepce (1765$``$ 1833), photography developed slowly (Herrmann 1984, p. 81; Krisciunas 1988, p. 127). The first photograph of a star was obtained in 1850 by J. A. Whipple, working under the direction of W. C. Bond (1789$``$1859). They used the Harvard College Observatory 15-inch refractor (Jones & Boyd 1971, p. 76). However, stars fainter than first magnitude could not be registered, so Bond suspended further experiments until 1857, by which time photographic plates were sensitive enough to register sixth or seventh magnitude stars with the 15-inch.

A great leap in sensitivity was achieved in 1874 with the invention of dry gelatino-bromide plates by W. Abney (1843$``$1920). By 1880 the American H. Draper (1837$``$1882) was able to photograph the Orion Nebula (Holden 1882, p. 226). Large international projects such as the Carte du Ciel, begun in 1887, and the beautiful photographs of nebulae by Keeler at Lick Observatory, using the 36-inch Crossley reflector, showed that astronomical photography had come of age (Krisciunas 1988, pp. 73, 151). Details of photographic photometry are discussed by Weaver (1946).

In the 1850’s J. K. F. Zöllner (1834$``$1882) developed the first practical astronomical photometer, which embodied an application of the polarization of light. In the Zöllner photometer the focal image of a real star was compared with the focal image of an artificial star made visible in the same field of view. The brightness of the artificial star could be adjusted by the relative position angles of two Nicol prisms until it matched the real star, and the orientation of the prisms allowed the magnitudes of the stars to be derived (Weaver 1946, p. 214; Herrmann 1984, p. 73; Hearnshaw 1996, p. 61). In 1861 Zöllner published data on 226 stars and soon after supplied 22 such photometers to observatories in Russia, the United Stares, England, Holland and other countries.

After E. C. Pickering (1846$``$1919) became Director of Harvard College Observatory in 1877 he experimented with various photometers built on the polarization principle, but then opted for a new design. Pickering’s meridian photometer consisted of a horizontal telescope with two objectives of the same diameter and approximately same focal length. One objective was used to measure a standard star near the North Celestial Pole, while the other was used to observe some other target star. As in the Zöllner photometer, this system relied on the observer’s ability to judge when two light sources were of equal apparent brightness. Of course, this could lead to systematic differences from observer to observer, especially if the stars were very red, but measurements could be made to $`\pm `$ 0.1 mag. It was on the basis of observations with a meridian photometer that Pickering and his collaborators produced the Harvard Revised Photometry,333This forms the basis of the various editions of the Bright Star Catalogue. The “HR” numbers still in use today refer to Pickering’s numbering scheme. comprising 9110 stars brighter than magnitude 6.5 and ranging from the North Celestial Pole to the South Celestial Pole.

J. Stebbins (1878$``$1966) began experimenting with a selenium photocell at the University of Illionis and published the first photometric light curve of the moon’s brightness as a function of phase (Stebbins & Brown 1907). Three years later (Stebbins 1910) he published the most accurate set of photometric observations in existence at that time, a light curve of the eclipsing binary Algol ($`\beta `$ Persei). This was the first demonstration of the secondary minimum. His data had probable errors as low as $`\pm `$ 0.006 mag. With the adoption of the Pogson scale and the development of photographic and photoelectric photometry, by the beginning of the 20th century astronomers had a true system of brightness measurements $``$ a far cry from Ptolemy’s approximate magnitude scale.

Stebbins and two physicists at the University of Illinois, J. Kunz and W. F. Schulz, developed photometers with photoelectric cells as early as 1913. P. Guthnick in Berlin, and H. O. Rosenberg and F. Meyer in Tübingen were also pioneers in the field of photoelectric photometry at this time (Weaver 1946, p. 507 ff.; Hearnshaw 1996, p. 193 ff.). With the invention of the photomultiplier tube after 1945, however, photoelectric photometry came of age and replaced photographic photometry as the principal method of making brightness measurements of stars (Hearnshaw 1996, p. 411 ff.). An example of a photoelectric light curve is given in Fig. 2.

A photoelectric photometer allows one to measure the light of a small patch of sky by means of a diaphragm, a Fabry (field) lens, and a set of colored glass filters. One reimages the light of the telescope’s primary mirror on the photocathode of the photomultiplier tube, whose output is amplified. One can either operate the system by recording a DC signal on a strip chart recorder, or one can build pulse counting electronics, which allows one to detect individual photons. One of the advantages such a device is that one generally uses a diaphragm much larger than the seeing disk at one’s site (20 to 30 arcsec might be typical); changes in the astronomical seeing do not affect the data in any significant way. However, because one is measuring one star-plus-sky at a time, one must take separate sky readings, and the number of sky position/filter integrations one can take on a clear night is usually limited to a few hundred. Since many observations are of standard stars, one might only obtain a few dozen program observations on any night.

The most widely used photometric system is the UBV system of Johnson & Morgan (1953), which is based on three carefully selected broad-band filters with effective wavelengths of 360, 440, and 550 nm and the photoelectric response of a CsSb (S-4) photosurface such as that of the RCA 1P21 photomultiplier tube. R-band (700 nm) and I-band (900 nm) filters have been used as well (Johnson 1966), but a more red-sensitive photosurface such as the S-20 needs to be used to improve sensitivity at those wavelengths (Walker 1987, p. 217).

Many other photometric systems have been developed; see Hearnshaw (1996, p. 434 ff.) for a summary and further references. One of the most widely used is the system devised by B. Strömgren (1908$``$1987), which allows the determination of stellar radii, surface gravities, effective temperatures, and absolute magnitudes (Balona & Shobbrook 1984, Moon 1984, Moon & Dworetsky 1985). Another system which will become widely used in the near future is being used for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (Gunn & Knapp 1993; Fukugita et al. 1996).

One of the advantages of photomultipliers is their greater sensitivity compared to photographic methods. The quantum efficiency $``$ or QE, the efficiency of a light sensitive element in detecting photons $``$ of a photographic plate is typically one percent, though hypersensitized emulsions can achieve QE’s of 4$``$5 percent (Walker 1987, p. 266; Rieke 1994, p. 39). A photomultiplier tube can achieve a maximum QE in excess of 10 percent (Walker 1987, p. 217), and cooling a photomultiplier tube with dry ice or thermoelectrically will decrease the “dark current” substantially, resulting in increased sensitivity because of lower noise.

The modern imaging device of choice is the charge-coupled device, or CCD (McLean 1989; Janesick & Elliott 1992), which was first introduced to the world in 1970. When light illuminates a CCD, four processes occur: 1) charge generation; 2) charge collection; 3) charge transfer; and 4) charge detection. The charge generation occurs as a result of the the production of electron-hole pairs in the light sensitive chip. The charge collection takes place in the nearest discrete collecting sites, or pixels. The collection sites are defined by an array of electrodes, called gates. The charge transfer results from manipulating the voltages on the gates so that the electrons move down vertical registers from one pixel to the next, like a bucket brigade. A horizontal register at the end of each column collects the charges in a serial manner and transports them to an on-chip amplifier. Finally, the charge detection is accomplished when the individual charge packets are converted to output voltages.

There are two significant advantages of CCD’s over photomultiplier tubes. First of all, CCD’s can achieve QE’s in excess of 70 percent, allowing much fainter objects to be detected without the construction of a larger telescope. Secondly, because a CCD is an array detector, one can observe multiple objects in the same frame and measure the sky brightness as well. This alone increases observing efficiency by a factor of three or more. Observations of crowded fields, such as in globular clusters, are nearly impossible with photomultiplier tubes, but are now routine with CCD’s, providing one is using an appropriately sophisticated data reduction package such as DoPhot (Schechter, Mateo, & Saha 1993) or daophot (Stetson 1987, 1990).

One difference between photomultiplier tubes and CCD’s is that the former typically have peak QE in the B-band, while the latter have peak QE in the R-band. The development of special anti-reflection coatings and the use of back-illuminated CCD’s has not only boosted their QE’s, but has made them more equally sensitive over their whole range of wavelengths.

References

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# Using Immunology Principles for Anomaly Detection in Electrical Systems

## 1 Introduction

The immune system, with its cell diversity and variety of information processing mechanisms, is a cognitive system of complexity comparable to the brain. Understanding the way this organ solves its computational tasks suggests new engineering solutions or new ways to look at old problems.

Early fault detection and predictive maintenance are extremely important for the cost savings they provide, especially in large and complex systems with many pieces of equipment, as an electrical power network. In a system of such complexity (because of its many connections and diversity of equipment) it is difficult to make a complete catalog of all the possible, and probable, anomalous situations. On the other hand when, for example, a circuit breaker operates in response to an overload, the harm is already done, either to some equipment or to the stability of the network. With its ability to detect and react to novel situations and to unleash smooth early secondary responses, the immune system seems to be an adequate source of inspiration to develop algorithms for early detection of anomalous behavior in electrical systems.

After a short introduction to the characteristics of the immune system that are relevant for our purposes, the paper describes a three-module algorithm for anomaly detection. By analogy with the immune system, these modules will be called the $`B`$-module, the $`T`$-module and the $`D`$-module. However, it should be emphasized that we are not trying to imitate the immune system in all its features and detailed operation. Many of the detailed features of the immune system are dependent on the biological context where it operates and on the type of cell hardware that is used. It is our opinion that the correct way to profit from the clever evolutionary mechanisms developed by Nature is to obtain algorithmic inspiration from them but, at the same time, to find the implementation that is more appropriate for our problem. For example, the interaction between the $`B`$-module and the $`T`$ -module takes the reverse order of what is found in Nature, with a clone proliferation phase preceding $`T`$-identification.

The algorithmic modules developed in Section 2 have a wide range of applications to many different technological systems. As an illustration, a concrete case is dealt with in the last part of the paper, namely an application to fault detection in squirrel-cage electric motors. Another application that is being currently developed concerns aging and anomaly detection in power transformers of an electrical network.

## 2 The immune system paradigm

Some of the immune system features that are of interest for anomaly detection in complex technological systems are:  \-

* Uniqueness: the immune system of each individual is unique, each one being a different entity, in spite of their overall similarity. Similar pieces of equipment are also unique entities. For instance, electric motors of same type and with equal ratings have different aging processes when placed in different electrical and thermal stress conditions. Therefore they also require a protection system that is tuned to their specific vulnerabilities.
* Imperfect detection and mutation: by not requiring an absolutely precise identification of every pathogen, the immune system becomes flexible and increases its detection range. However, when a pathogen is detected, an hypermutation mechanism sharpens the identification. Because identification of pathogens is made by partial matching, a small number of the “detectors” ($`10^8`$ to $`10^{12}`$) is able to recognize non-self patterns on the order of $`10^{16}`$. Similarly, it is not an easy task to characterize precisely all the possible anomaly situations in a complex system. Therefore, an initial rough characterization of the anomalies and imperfect detection seems an useful feature. That is, initially a small number of detectors may be defined, which are at a later stage modified by the dynamics.
* Learning and memory: the immune system is able to learn the structure of the pathogens, and remember those structures. Future responses are much faster and, when made at an early stage of the infection, no adverse effects are felt by the organism. We underline the importance of this feature for smooth operation and cost savings, both in fault detection and in preventive maintenance.
* Novelty detection: the immune system can detect and react to pathogens that the body has never encountered before.
* Distributed detection: the detectors used by the immune system are small and efficient, highly distributed and not subjected to centralized control.

## 3 The algorithm

In the algorithm, the states of the system, both normal condition and anomaly states, are characterized by the values of $`N`$ variables. The $`N`$dimensional state vector is normalized in such a way that all variables take values in the interval $`[0,1]`$. The values of the state vector in normal conditions define the self $`S`$ of the system. The anomaly states are the non-self of the system.

The algorithm contains three modules. The $`T`$-module discriminates self from non-self (that is, from anomalies). The $`B`$-module reacts to all frequently occurring state vector values (self and non-self codes) and presents its results to the $`T`$-module. The $`B`$-module also plays a role in updating the $`T`$-module. For large distributed systems one considers also the implementation of $`D`$-modules which are essentially reduced state space $`T`$-modules. They are simple anomaly detection units that, when some potential abnormal situation is detected, report the situation to a central system which then makes a detailed analysis of the event.

### 3.1 The T-module

This module contains a set of detectors which are vectors in complementary space of the self, $`A=[0,1]^N\backslash S`$. Each element $`\stackrel{}{x}`$ of $`A`$ is able to detect anomalies inside a radius $`r_x`$ around it. That is, if $`|\stackrel{}{y}\stackrel{}{x}|<r_x`$, $`\stackrel{}{y}`$ being the current state of the system, an anomaly of type $`x`$ is reported.

Let the set of self patterns be known. Then, the algorithm defines $`d`$ detectors with radius $`r_x`$. Fig.1 illustrates, in a two-dimensional space, the basic idea. The small circles are the self patterns. To each point in the self corresponds a code (a set of vector coordinates) and an affinity neighborhood of normal operating conditions inside a radius $`r_s`$. The anomaly detectors are shown in the figure as large circles. The $`T`$-module is initialized by choosing points in $`A`$ at random with corresponding radius $`r_x`$, until a reasonable coverage of the space $`A`$ is obtained with $`d`$ detectors.

The $`T`$-module receives inspiration from the censoring mechanism for T-cells that occurs in the thymus. This negative selection process is implemented in the $`T`$-module as follows: Each candidate anomaly detector (immature $`T`$-detector) is generated at random. The affinity of this vector with those defining the self and the other already established detectors is measured by the Euclidean distance. If the new detector falls in the neighborhood domain of another detector or of a self code, it is deleted and another candidate detector is generated at random. Otherwise, the detector is included as an element $`\stackrel{}{x}`$ of the space $`A`$ (mature $`T`$-detector). The censoring mechanism is repeated until a pre-specified number $`d`$ of detectors is generated.

When a measurement $`\stackrel{}{y}`$ of the system arrives to the $`T`$-module, the algorithm verifies whether this code has affinity with one of the detectors or with the self. If it falls in the self domain, no detector is activated. If affinity is found with one of the detectors $`(\stackrel{}{x^{^{}}})`$, an anomaly of type $`\stackrel{}{x^{^{}}}`$ is reported. To avoid over-reaction to spurious situations, each detector is equipped with a counter and reports an anomaly only if the offending vector occurs more than a predefined number of times.

We notice at this point that, with random initialization, the $`T`$-module is not necessarily tuned to the most frequent, or probable, anomalous situations. On the other hand, some dangerous gaps may occur between the neighborhood domains of the detectors. This situation is corrected by dynamic interaction with the $`B`$-module.

By a mechanism to be described later on, the $`B`$-module generates vector codes corresponding to the most frequently occurring states of the system and sends these codes as alert codes to the $`T`$-module. When an alert code $`\stackrel{}{\widehat{x}}`$ coming from the $`B`$-module arrives to the $`T`$-module, the latter takes one of three actions:

a) If $`\stackrel{}{\widehat{x}}`$ is located inside a detector, the center of this detector is shifted to a position closer to the $`\stackrel{}{\widehat{x}}`$ code and, if $`\stackrel{}{\widehat{x}}`$ continues to occur, an anomaly is reported. That is, not only is an anomaly detected but also the detector becomes better tuned to this kind of anomaly.

b) If $`\stackrel{}{\widehat{x}}`$ is located outside all detector neighborhoods, at a distance at least $`r^{^{}}`$, a new detector is created at the position of the $`\stackrel{}{\widehat{x}}`$ code with radius $`r^{^{}}`$. As before, if this situation recurs, an anomaly is reported.

c) Finally, if $`\stackrel{}{\widehat{x}}`$ has affinity with a self pattern, nothing happens.

By itself or in interaction with the $`B`$-module, the $`T`$-module is an adaptive system. As an illustration, two typical situations are considered here. The first one is shown in Figs.1 and 2. Suppose that a non-self code (the star symbol in Fig.1) is detected several times. Then, the detector changes its code to increase the affinity to this type of anomaly, as shown in Fig.2. The second situation, shown in Fig.3, corresponds to a case in which no detector had affinity with the external code. In this case, if the situation occurs many times, the algorithm creates a new detector with a resolution defined by the smallest distance to the other detector boundaries, as shown in Fig.4. In this way the $`T`$-module modifies the initial set of detectors produced by the censoring mechanism. It may change their number, modify the space distribution and change the resolution, creating a system-specific anomaly detection device.

### 3.2 The B-module

The $`B`$-module plays a role in improving the $`A`$ space coverage of the $`T`$-module and, when used with a system that is known to be operating in normal conditions, may also be used to generate the self patterns.

The $`B`$-module has a total population of $`N_t`$ vectors

$$N_t=N_l+N_{l_c}$$

consisting of an initial population of $`N_l`$ vectors $`\left\{\stackrel{}{x_l}\right\}`$, randomly distributed in the whole space $`[0,1]^N`$, plus a variable number $`N_{l_c}`$ of clone vectors $`\left\{\stackrel{}{x_{l_c}}\right\}`$. The number of clone vectors changes as the system evolves. To keep the system computationally efficient their number is limited to a fraction of the initial population

$$N_{l_{c\mathrm{\_}\mathrm{max}}}=\beta N_l$$

The evolution of the total population is controlled by interaction with the state vectors generated by the system. This dynamical evolution has mutation and stimulation features.

#### 3.2.1 Mutation

A mutation process takes place every time an external code $`\stackrel{}{y}`$, coming from the system, arrives to the $`B`$-module. The mutation process begins by selecting, from the total population, a sample of $`p_m`$ vectors, $`\left\{\stackrel{}{x_m}\right\}`$. The mutation process operates only in this part of the population and in those codes that are close to the external signal $`\stackrel{}{y}`$.

The mutation process depends on the affinity between the vectors $`\stackrel{}{x_m}`$ in the sample and the external code $`\stackrel{}{y}`$. When the vector $`\stackrel{}{x_m}`$ and the code $`\stackrel{}{y}`$ are far way, as in zone A of Fig.5, no affinity is considered to exist and the code $`\stackrel{}{x_m}`$ is not changed. Also, in zone B, there is no modification. For codes $`\stackrel{}{x_C}`$ in zone C, the mutation process occurs in a deterministic way. The external code $`\stackrel{}{y}`$ is assumed to have mass one and the vectors in zone C mass $`m_l`$. The new code in the population corresponds to the center of mass of the two entities, given by

$$\stackrel{}{x_C}\left(t+1\right)=\frac{m_l\stackrel{}{x_C}\left(t\right)+\stackrel{}{y}}{1+m_l}$$

In zone D, the mutation process works in a random way. The new position of the population vector $`\stackrel{}{x_D}`$ is found using a random uniform distribution for each point of the line defined by the old position of the vector and the position of the external code

$$\stackrel{}{x_D}\left(t+1\right)=\stackrel{}{x_D}\left(t\right)+\eta \left(\stackrel{}{y}\stackrel{}{x_D}\left(t\right)\right)$$

When the external code appears repeatedly in the same region, the mutation process leads to a population cluster in that region. The speed of cluster formation depends on the parameters $`m_l`$ and $`\eta `$. The cluster code is computed by a hierarchical binary tree routine, a cluster being identified when a threshold parameter in the clustering algorithm is reached. The cluster center defines an alert code that is passed to the $`T`$-module to be processed as described before. If the code is identified as a self code it is eliminated from the population. Otherwise, it reports an anomaly and creates a new or improved detector in the $`T`$-module.

The mutation process is illustrated in Fig.6 which corresponds to an external code $`\stackrel{}{y}=(0.1,0.7)`$ being detected many times. A cluster is created around the external code.

It is also clear that, when either the nature of the self codes is not known or it is difficult to specify, the $`B`$-module, used with a system in normal operating conditions, may be used to generate the self codes.

#### 3.2.2 Stimulation

As new external codes arrive, the mutation process destroys the initial uniformity of the population, resulting sometimes in a highly sparse distribution. In this case, if an atypical external code appears, its detection may become difficult. This situation is even more critical when the external code is located near the boundary of the state-space or near an already formed cluster. In these cases, the mutation process has a high probability to fail because the areas C and D (Fig.5) are depleted. To overcome this drawback, a stimulation or cloning mechanism has been included in the algorithm to create new vectors in the region where the external code appears.

The cloning mechanism is activated when the rate of external codes arriving in a neighborhood exceeds a pre-specified threshold $`\alpha `$. If the rate is below this threshold there is no cloning and only the mutation process takes place. The number of clone vectors in the total population is limited to a maximum $`N_{l_{c\mathrm{\_}\mathrm{max}}}`$. As long as the stimulation threshold is exceeded in a given region, clones are added to the population in locations chosen at random in the regions B to D. If the number of clone vectors has reached its maximum value and more external codes continue arriving, at a rate above the stimulation threshold, the oldest clone in the population is replaced by the external code. After each cloning the mutation mechanism is activated as before.

A death mechanism is also introduced for the clone vectors. At each time one vector from the total population is chosen at random. If it belongs to the initial $`N_l`$ population nothing happens. However, if it belongs to the set of $`N_{l_c}`$ clone vectors, it is eliminated with probability

$$P_{die}=\frac{N_{l_c}}{N_{l_c}+N_l}$$

The stimulation mechanism is illustrated in Figs.7-11. The initial population in Fig.7 was exposed from time $`t=0`$ to $`t=150`$ to the code $`a=(0.4,0.4)`$, from $`t=151`$ to $`t=200`$ to the code $`b=(0.7,0.7)`$ and from $`t=201`$ to $`t=300`$ to the code $`c=(0.32,0.32)`$. Fig.8 shows the evolution of the total number of clone vectors. Notice that clones only start to be created after a certain number of occurrences of the external code. During a time interval, after the change of external code, only the random death mechanism is observed. In this example the saturation level $`N_{l_c}`$ is set at 400. Figs.9 -11 show three successive snapshots of the total population. Clones are denoted by a diamond symbol.

Memory is a hallmark of the immune system. As in the immune system, memory features are present in the algorithm at two levels. In the $`T`$-module the tuning of the position and range of the detectors acts as a long time memory of past anomaly situations. For the $`B`$-module the distribution of the population, both initial population and clones, has memory features at two different time scales.

### 3.3 D-modules

For large distributed systems like, for example, an electrical power distribution network it is not economic, in terms of computational power and communications, to keep a permanent monitoring of the whole system by a centralized facility. Therefore in these cases it is reasonable to distribute throughout the network a large number of simple monitoring systems, which report to the central unit only when some unusual condition appears as a candidate anomaly. Depending on the nature of the transferred data to the central unit, this one may then subject this particular network node to a finer analysis. The $`D`$-modules behave therefore as anomaly-presenting systems and may be constructed as simplified $`T`$-modules with a reduced state-space. For example, to monitor the power transformers in a network, the $`D`$-modules may only process the data related to the concentration of a particular gas type or the temperature at a few critical points. In case of a potentially anomalous situation, the central unit may then require the transfer of data from other monitoring devices. Although simplified, the $`D`$-modules may also be evolving units, learning both from their experience of local conditions and from periodic updates to benefit from experience collected at other points of the network.

## 4 Anomaly detection in squirrel-cage motors.

Here, the algorithm is applied to fault detection in squirrel-cage motors. These motors are critical components of many industrial equipments. They are fairly reliable machines, nevertheless they do suffer degradation and occasional failure. Environment, duty cycles and installation conditions may combine to accelerate motor failure. Their malfunction introduces costs in the industrial processes where they are inserted, these costs being often much higher than the actual cost of the motor.

A variety of fault detection techniques have been proposed  \- . Each one addresses a specific failure in one of the three motor components: the stator, the rotor, or the bearings. The signals to be monitored may be stator voltages and currents, output torque, rotor position and speed, air-gap flux density, temperature and vibrations. A large amount of research has concerned the stator current spectrum. The presence of some frequency components has been shown to be the signature of a fault condition.

Most methodologies based on the stator current spectrum are based on the assumption that the current drawn by a normal motor has only a significantly large component at the supply frequency. A machine malfunction would manifest itself by the appearance of other significant components, some frequencies being related to specific faults. However, it is difficult to distinguish in this way a normal operating condition from a potential failure. This is because spectral components may arise from a number of sources, including those related to normal operating conditions. Harmonic components may exist, caused by the motor design, by the power network or by fluctuations in the load torque, which are not related with an abnormal motor condition.

To consider a single component spectra as the representative pattern of normal motor condition is not correct. It is the actual current spectra, obtained when the motor is inserted in the production unit in typical conditions, that characterizes the normal operating conditions. It is this frequency spectrum, with or without harmonics, that characterizes the self state of the machine.

### 4.1 Fault detection: results and discussion

The single-phase stator current is sampled and converted to the frequency domain using a discrete Fourier transform. A sequence of spectra is obtained by a moving window on the current data. Only those harmonics with amplitude greater than $`50`$ dB and frequencies below $`200`$ Hz are kept. The $`200`$ Hz upper limit was chosen because most frequencies related to squirrel-cage motor faults occur in this interval. Harmonic amplitudes are normalized by the amplitude of the supply frequency.

A detailed anomaly detection system must consider the overall frequency spectrum pattern. Even discretizing the spectrum, this implies monitoring a very high-dimensional space, a process that requires considerable computer power. On the other hand, it is not necessary to be monitoring all frequencies in full detail all the time. The solution is to segment our anomaly-detection system into several subunits each one covering a frequency interval in the spectrum. The frequency resolution of all the subunits need not be same because, from experience, we already know what frequency intervals need to be monitored in more detail. All the subunits work in a similar fashion, the overall operating mode of the system being such that at each time only one subunit is active but the active one changes periodically. In this way an adequate fine covering of the energy spectrum is implemented, while keeping the computation requirements at a reasonable level.

A segmentation scheme of this type is applicable to any system where a good resolution of the operation conditions is desired. However if, at the same time, an overall continuous monitoring of the whole system is necessary, the outputs of the subunits may be looked at as components of a global coding vector that is sent for analysis to a central system. The central system may then operate on a slower time schedule.

#### 4.1.1 Results

The operation of the subunits is now illustrated using laboratory results from normal conditions and from two typical fault situations.

Each subunit monitors a frequency interval around a frequency value $`f_D`$. The interval is divided in two equal parts. For each part, the integral of the spectrum is computed, obtaining a data pair that is sent as the external code to the algorithm. The lower and higher intervals correspond to the absciss and ordinate coordinates in the figures.

As shown in Fig.12, even in normal operation, the stator current spectrum displays, in addition to the 50Hz component, other significant frequency components (near 100, 150 and 180Hz). Asymmetry in the power supply and misalignment are at the origin of these frequency components. Subunits covering these frequencies detect these components as self patterns of the motor, characterizing its normal condition state. Fig.13 shows the self patterns of three of these subunits. Notice that the subunits being centered exactly at 100, 150 and 180 Hz, the slip frequency makes the harmonics to contribute only to the integrated spectrum of the higher interval. We now illustrate the two fault situations, namely the case of rotor broken bars and the case of oscillatory load and unbalanced power supply.

##### Case 1: broken rotor bars

Broken rotor bars generate spectrum lines at frequencies

$$f_1=f\pm (2ks)f$$

$`s`$ being the slip frequency, $`f`$ the supply frequency, and $`k`$ an integer value (1, 2, 3,…). The amplitude of the sideband frequencies measures the seriousness of the anomaly.

A subunit algorithm centered at the supply frequency ($`50`$Hz) has been tested using laboratory measurements of the stator current of a squirrel-cage motor with different numbers of broken bars.

For the case of one broken bar the spectrum is shown in Fig.14. The initial population of $`T`$-detectors $`\left(n=33\right)`$ and the self pattern of this subunit are shown in Fig.15. As external codes come from the system (the hexagonal symbol in Fig.15), the $`B`$-module, through the stimulation and mutation processes, creates a new distribution of the vector population (Fig.16). The interaction between the $`B`$-module and the $`T`$-module leads to the detector shift shown in Fig.17 and to the reporting of an anomaly.

A more severe situation is shown in Fig.18 when the motor has four broken bars. The subunit now is the same as before. With four broken bars, the amplitude of the sideband components has increased, creating external codes near the boundary of state-space (Fig.18). After the stimulation and mutation processes illustrated in Fig.19, a new detector is created (Fig.20) to monitor and report this anomaly.

##### Case 2: oscillatory load plus an unbalanced power supply

An oscillation in the load torque at a multiple $`m`$ of the rotor speed creates spectral lines at frequencies

$$f_{load}=f\left(1\pm km\left(1s\right)\right)$$

$`k=1,2,3,\mathrm{}`$. Sideband frequency components of this type are shown in Fig.21.

With an unbalanced power supply, a negative sequence voltage appears at the stator winding. This creates frequency components

$$f_{umb}=f\left(1\pm k\left(1s\right)\right)$$

A subunit centered at 150Hz detects faults of these types. Already, when operating in normal conditions there is a small amplitude at this frequency which characterizes the self configuration of the system. When a situation of unbalanced operation arises, new external codes appear as shown in Fig.22. The external codes for the unbalanced condition interact with the B-module resulting in the final vector population shown in Fig.23. This then originates a new detector in the $`T`$-module of this subunit (Fig.24) and an anomaly is reported.

## 5 Conclusions

1. Equipments of the same type and equal ratings have different aging processes, depending on their particular location in the industrial process and stress conditions. Therefore normal operating conditions of the same type of equipment vary over a wide range of possibilities. On the other hand it is virtually impossible to make a complete catalog of all the possible and probable anomaly situations. By adapting itself to the actual operating conditions of the system, fault detection based on the specific immunity response algorithms seems to be an adequate device to characterize the particular nature of the normal conditions as well as to react to new and unexpected anomaly situations.
2. By being able to detect anomaly conditions at an early developing stage, immunity-based systems may provide substantial cost savings in industrial processes and be an useful tool to develop preventive maintenance schedules.
3. In the $`T`$\- plus $`B`$\- module system developed in this paper, each detected anomaly corresponds to a well defined code in the detection system. The code of the detected anomaly is then a useful piece of information for diagnosis and corrective measures.
4. By trial and chance over millions of years, Nature’s evolutionary processes have found very efficient processes to deal with all kinds of hostile environments. To obtain inspiration from these natural mechanisms seems to be a sensible approach. However some of the features of the biological processes are domain-specific and depend on the cell hardware that is used. Therefore it is appropriate to obtain algorithmic inspiration from Nature, but it would be ill advised to copy all the details of the biological process.
5. Organisms, as a first barrier to infection, also protect themselves by non-specific mechanisms like macrophages, cell apoptosis, etc. These non-specific mechanisms have a parallel with the devices used in the past for the protection of electrical power systems (circuit breakers, partial network shutdowns, etc.). What this analogy suggests is that it is high time to move beyond the non-specific protection mechanisms towards specific anomaly detection devices. Nature has been doing it for millions of years.

Acknowledgement

The authors are grateful to A. J. Marques Cardoso from University of Coimbra for providing the motor fault experimental data.


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# Field Effect Magnetization Reversal in Ferromagnetic Semiconductor Quantum Wells

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## Abstract

We predict that a novel bias-voltage assisted magnetization reversal process will occur in Mn doped II-VI semiconductor quantum wells or heterojunctions with carrier induced ferromagnetism. The effect is due to strong exchange-coupling induced subband mixing that leads to electrically tunable hysteresis loops. Our model calculations are based on the mean-field theory of carrier induced ferromagnetism in Mn-doped quantum wells and on a semi-phenomenological description of the host II-VI semiconductor valence bands.

\]

The strong dependence of transport properties in metallic multilayers on magnetic configuration has inspired a new field of research, spintronics, in which the electron spin degree of freedom is exploited. Semiconductors that become ferromagnetic when doped with magnetic elements, for example GaAs doped with Mn, are of special interest in this field in part because of their compatibility with conventional semiconductor technology and because of the larger range of possibilities for the control of device functionality. Ferromagnetism has already been observed in such systems at relatively high temperatures ($`T_c>`$100K)  and strategies for obtaining $`T_c`$’s larger than room temperature are of a great current interest in this scientific community.

Our interest here is in the magnetic properties of modulation doped quantum wells containing Mn local moments. We expect these systems to be unusual ferromagnets because of the reduced dimensionality of the itinerant hole system and the possibility of using confinement effects and doping profiles to manipulate their magnetic properties. For example, the ferromagnetic critical temperature can be tuned by an external electric field , as demonstrated in recent studies of (In,Mn)As field effect transistors. In this Letter we study their hysteresis properties which will be, we predict, extremely sensitive to external bias voltages. The interplay between local moment - itinerant hole exchange coupling, Zeeman coupling of the localized moments to external magnetic field, and the coupling of an external electric field to the orbital degrees of freedom of itinerant holes, makes it possible to vary the coercive field by over an order of magnitude with rather modest external electric fields. As a result, we predict that the magnetization orientation in quantum wells can be manipulated electrically without changing the magnetic field. Our calculations also suggest that capacitance measurements can be used to probe the magnetic state of biased ferromagnetic semiconductor quantum wells.

The system we consider is a (Cd,Mn)Te quantum well grown in the $`001`$ crystal direction. Unlike III-V host materials, where Mn acts as an acceptor, the Mn concentration and the itinerant hole density can be varied independently in II-VI hosts. The quantum effects discussed here are more pronounced when only one or two subbands are occupied, a condition that can easily be achieved with sizeable Mn concentrations in II-VI diluted magnetic semiconductor (DMS) quantum wells.

The Hamiltonian of a DMS system is written using an envelope function description of valence band electrons and a spin representation of their kinetic-exchange interaction  with d-electrons  on the Mn2+ ions:

$$=_m+_b+J_{pd}\underset{i,I}{}\stackrel{}{S}_I\stackrel{}{s}_i\delta (\stackrel{}{r}_i\stackrel{}{R}_I),$$
(1)
where $`i`$ labels a valence band hole and $`I`$ labels a magnetic ion. In Eq. (1), $`_m`$ describes the coupling of magnetic ions with total spin quantum number $`S=5/2`$ to an external field, $`\stackrel{}{S}_I`$ is a localized spin, $`\stackrel{}{s}_i`$ is a hole spin, and $`_b`$ is a four-band envelope-function Hamiltonian  for the valence bands. The four-band Kohn-Luttinger model describes only the total angular momentum $`j=3/2`$ bands, and is adequate at low hole densities when spin-orbit coupling is large. The degeneracy between heavy-hole ($`|j_z|=3/2`$) and light-hole ($`|j_z|=1/2`$) bands at the $`\mathrm{\Gamma }`$-point in the bulk is lifted by size quantization effects in a quasi-two-dimensional system. The resulting heavy-light gap is larger than the Fermi energy, in the relevant range of hole densities, allowing only the two heavy-hole bands to be occupied. The heavy holes have their spin aligned along $`\widehat{z}`$-axis ($`001`$ crystal direction) so that the band electron spin matrix elements get smaller when the magnetization tilts away from the growth direction. This leads, as discussed below, to very strong magnetic anisotropy with easy axes along and opposite to the growth direction. This anisotropy is reduced in magnitude but is still large when mixing between heavy- and light-hole bands is fully accounted for, as we show below. The exchange interaction between valence band holes and localized moments is believed to be antiferromagnetic , i.e. $`J_{pd}>0`$. For (Cd,Mn)Te, $`J_{pd}0.06`$ eV nm3.

Our mean-field theory is derived in the spin-density-functional framework and leads to a set of physically transparent coupled equations . The effective magnetic field seen by localized magnetic ions is the sum of the external magnetic field and the kinetic exchange coupling mean-field contribution from spin-polarized carriers:

$$\stackrel{}{H}_{eff}(\stackrel{}{R}_I)=\stackrel{}{H}_{ext}J_{pd}\stackrel{}{s}(\stackrel{}{R}_I)/g\mu _B,$$
(2)
where $`\stackrel{}{H}_{ext}`$ is the external magnetic field, $`\stackrel{}{s}(\stackrel{}{R}_I)`$ is the carrier spin density at Mn sites, and $`g=2`$ is the g-factor of the local moments. The mean polarization of a magnetic ion is given by

$$\stackrel{}{S}(\stackrel{}{R}_I)=SB_S\left(SH_{eff}(\stackrel{}{R}_I)/k_BT\right)\widehat{H}_{eff}(\stackrel{}{R}_I),$$
(3)
where $`B_S(x)`$ is the Brillouin function and $`\widehat{H}_{eff}(\stackrel{}{R}_I)`$ is the unit vector along the direction of the effective magnetic field defined in Eq.(2). The itinerant-hole spin-density is determined by solving the Schrödinger equation for holes which experience chemical quantum confinement and electrostatic external potentials, a local-spin-density-approximation exchange-correlation potential, and a spin-dependent kinetic-exchange potential $`h(z)`$. The field $`h(z)`$ is non-zero only in the ferromagnetic state. We assume that the magnetic ions are randomly distributed and dense on a scale set by the free carrier Fermi wavevector and that any desired density profile, $`N_{Mn}(z)`$, can be achieved during growth. This allows us to take a continuum limit where

$$h(z)=J_{pd}N_{Mn}(z)S(z).$$
(4)
Results presented in the following paragraphs are based on a self-consistent solution of Eqs. (2)-(4) in the zero temperature limit. This approach does not account for disorder associated with randomness in the Mn spin locations, which could have some importance in general, or for direct interactions between Mn spins on neighboring lattice sites. There is however a large body of literature, mostly concerning the magnetic field dependence of optical properties of paramagnetic DMS systems, that supports the reliability of these approximations for qualitative predictions.

The magnetization reversal properties of these quantum well ferromagnets are quite unusual as we now establish. We first discuss the dependence of the ground state energy on uniform magnetization orientation. As explained above we expect that quantum confinement and valence band spin-orbit coupling should conspire to yield a large anisotropy energy. In Fig. 1 we plot the change in the total band energy per particle $`E_b(\theta )`$ as a function of angle $`\theta `$ of the magnetization measured from the growth direction for several 2D densities $`p_{2D}`$. We assumed a (Cd,Mn)Te/(Cd,Zn)Te quantum well of the width $`w=10`$ nm with the valence band offset 150 meV and uniformly distributed Mn ions of density $`N_{Mn}=6\times 10^{20}`$ cm-3. The energy increase at non-zero angles, i.e., the growth direction easy-axis anisotropy, is consistent with experiment , and with the expectations based on $`001`$ growth quantum confinement effects explained above. If there were no heavy-light subband mixing at any orientation, the magnetic condensation energy would vanish for $`\theta =\pi /2`$ (the operators $`s_x`$ and $`s_y`$ vanish in the heavy-hole subspace) and the anisotropy energy per electron would equal $`JSN_{Mn}/245`$ meV, much larger than the values obtained in Fig. 1. This limit is reached, however, only when quantum well subband splittings are much larger than $`JSN_{Mn}`$ and we are not close to this limit. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the anisotropy energy we obtain is still several times larger than in bulk ferromagnetic semiconductors. It is interesting to note that the anisotropy energy per electron in these ferromagnets is nearly three orders of magnitude larger than in cubic transition metal ferromagnets.

For magnetization along the easy axis, heavy-light mixing is very weak permitting the use a single spin-split band model with effective mass $`m_{}=0.25m_0`$ and out-of-plane mass $`m_z=0.55m_0`$. In this (Cd,Mn)Te/(Cd,Zn)Te quantum well, the spin-splitting is about three times larger than the splitting between the two lowest majority-spin subbands. This enormous exchange gap between majority- and minority-spin states is the origin of the peculiar magnetic reversal properties in biased DMS quantum wells that we now discuss. Consider the effect of a field in the positive $`\widehat{z}`$-direction on the state where all spins are polarized in the negative $`\widehat{z}`$-direction. Because of the antiferromagnetic $`pd`$ coupling, spin-up holes are the majority carriers at zero external magnetic field. At the 2D hole densities of interest here, only the lowest spin-up subband is occupied and all spin-down subbands are empty, i.e., the itinerant system is fully polarized. When the magnetic field is applied, direct Zeeman coupling to a local moment competes with the local mean-field kinetic-exchange coupling which is proportional to the itinerant-hole spin-density. Since the carrier density is smaller at the edges of the quantum well than at the center, spin reversal starts from the well edges. This, in turn, creates an exchange barrier for the majority-spins which effectively narrows the quantum well in which they reside. At the same time an effective double-well potential develops for the minority spins as illustrated in Fig. 2. Note that because of the strong kinetic-exchange potential, the symmetric and antisymmetric minority-spin states in the unbiased double-well remain nearly degenerate throughout the whole meta-stable part of the hysteretic magnetization curve.

As the external magnetic field increases, the minority-spin energy levels are lowered and the majority-spin energy levels are raised. When the lowest down-spin energy level reaches the Fermi energy $`E_F`$, holes start to occupy the down-spin states. Our self-consistent calculations show that once this occurs, the magnetization reversal is rapidly completed and only the uniform down-spin state is stable.

This unusual process in which magnetization reversal and quantum confinement effects are linked suggests that the hysteresis curve can be modified by applying an external electric field, as shown in Fig. 2. We can parameterize the electric field between the front-gate and the quantum well, fixing the field at the back side of the well, by the total two-dimensional carrier density. We have calculated local moment magnetization loops for several carrier densities where $`p_{2D}=3\times 10^{11}`$ cm-2 corresponds to the balanced quantum well. The results are plotted in Fig. 3. Two effects contribute to the change of the hysteresis loop with applied electric field. First, the hole-density profile is compressed and moves toward one edge of the well, permitting an abrupt localized moment reversal throughout the depleted region of the quantum well. Second, the increase (decrease) of the 2D hole density enhances (suppresses) the kinetic-exchange coupling.

The hysteresis loops shown in Fig. 3 imply that, at a fixed magnetic field, the magnetization can be changed by applying an electric field. This possibility of narrowing or broadening hysteresis loops electrically is an attractive feature of ferromagnetic semiconductor quantum well systems. It is somewhat reminiscent of recent interest in current driven magnetization reversal in metallic ferromagnets and could be extremely useful if other obstacles (most obviously the low ferromagnetic transition temperatures) to the use of these systems in non-volatile memory devices can be overcome.

The interplay between quantum confinement and magnetization reversal in ferromagnetic semiconductor quantum wells is reflected in unusual magnetocapacitance effects. The inverse capacitance can be written as

$$C^1=C_b^1+C_c^1,$$
(5)
where $`C_b^1`$ is the inverse geometric capacitance, and $`C_c^1`$ is the inverse 2D-channel capacitance. The geometric capacitance depends only on the distance from the quantum well to the gate and on the barrier dielectric constant $`ϵ`$, and does not reflect the electronic structure of the 2D hole gas. The inverse channel capacitance

$$C_c^1=\frac{d\varphi _c}{dp_{2D}}=\frac{d}{dp_{2D}}\left(\frac{\overline{z}}{ϵ}p_{2D}+\frac{E_F}{e^2}\right)$$
(6)
is the sum of the electrostatic term related to the density dependent center of mass of the quasi-2D hole system and a thermodynamic term originating from the concentration dependent Fermi energy. This separation is physically sensible and convenient and can be made precise by the arbitrary choice of a reference position outside the quantum well; only the total capacitance is measurable. Fig. 4 demonstrates the similarity of electric and magnetic responses to the electric bias field, indicating the magnetic state of this quasi-2D system can be detected electrically. These curves are calculated by starting in the partially magnetized state at the balanced density, $`p_{2D}=3\times 10^{11}\mathrm{cm}^2`$; as explained previously the metastable state persists to the largest reversal fields for balanced quantum wells. When the density is varied, metastability is lost and the magnetization reversal is completed. The discontinuity in magnetization is accompanied by a discontinuity in the electrochemical potential difference between channel and gate that appears as a singularity in the capacitance.

In closing we remark that this unusual magnetization reversal process can be operative only if the system is always stable against coherent magnetization reorientation. We do not expect that this stability will hold for wider quantum wells, but believe that it does for the geometry considered here, as we now argue. Accounting for the coupling to an external field along the easy axis to the Mn spins, the total energy per electron as a function of the coherent spin orientation $`\theta `$ is:

$$E(\theta )=E_b(\theta )\mathrm{cos}(\theta )g\mu _BSH_{ext}N_{Mn}\zeta (H_{ext})w/p_{2D},$$
(7)
where $`\zeta (H_{ext})=(N_{Mn}^{}N_{Mn}^{})/(N_{Mn}^{}+N_{Mn}^{})`$ is the spatially averaged local moment polarization. Our band anisotropy energy results, summarized in Fig. 1, are accurately described by a uniaxial form, $`E_b(\theta )=K\mathrm{sin}^2(\theta )`$ with $`K=5\mathrm{m}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{V}`$ per electron for $`p_{2D}=3\times 10^{11}\mathrm{cm}^2`$. If $`K`$ were constant and the $`\zeta (H_{ext})`$ were equal to one, the coherent rotation field would be $`H_c=2K/(g\mu _BSN_{Mn}w/p_{2D})17mT`$. However $`\zeta `$ is reduced in the spatially inhomogeneous state and $`K`$ will be increased by the effectively narrower quantum well in which the majority spin electrons are confined. These two effects will combine to make the unusual reversal process discussed in this paper an operative one for quantum wells narrower than $`10\mathrm{n}\mathrm{m}`$.

We acknowledge useful discussions with Tomasz Dietl, Jacek K. Furdyna, Jürgen König, Hideo Ohno, and John Schliemann. The work was supported by DARPA, Indiana 21st Century Fund, Welch Foundation, and by the Ministry of Education of the Czech Republic under grant OC P5.10.


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# Probing Microquasars with TeV Neutrinos

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## Abstract

The jets associated with Galactic micro-quasars are believed to be ejected by accreting stellar mass black-holes or neutron stars. We show that if the energy content of the jets in the transient sources is dominated by electron-proton plasma, then a several hour outburst of 1–100 TeV neutrinos produced by photo-meson interactions should precede the radio flares associated with major ejection events. Several neutrinos may be detected during a single outburst by a 1 km2 detector, thereby providing a powerful probe of micro-quasars jet physics.

\]

Microquasars are Galactic jet sources associated with some classes of X-ray binaries involving both, neutron stars and black hole candidates (albeit with some notable differences between these two classes). During active states, the X-ray flux and spectrum can vary substantially between different sub-states, with a total luminosity that, during the so-called very high states, often exceeds the Eddington limit (typically a few times $`10^{38}`$ ergs s-1 in those sources). Their activity involves ejection of jets with kinetic power that appears to constitute a considerable fraction of the liberated accretion energy (in some cases the minimum jet power inferred exceeds the peak X-ray luminosity ), and that gives rise to intense radio and IR flares. Radio monitoring of some X-ray transients have revealed superluminal motions in currently three of the sources , indicating that at least in these objects the jets are relativistic. The Lorentz factors of the radio emitting blobs have been estimated to be (coincidently) $`\mathrm{\Gamma }2.5`$ in the two superluminal sources, GRS 1915+105  and GRO J1655-40 , and somewhat smaller ($`\mathrm{\Gamma }2`$) in the third one, XTE J1819 . Whether these are representative values or merely the result of selection effects is unclear at present; the class of microquasars may contain sources with much larger $`\mathrm{\Gamma }`$, rendered invisible by beaming away from us .

The temporal behavior of microquasars appears to be rather complex. They exhibit large amplitude variations over a broad range of time scales and frequencies, with apparent connections between the radio, IR, and soft/hard X-ray fluxes . The characteristics of the multi-waveband behavior depend on the state of the source, that is, whether the source is in a very high, soft/high or low/hard state . The ejection episodes are classified into several classes according to the brightness of synchrotron emission produced in the jet and the characteristic time scale of the event . The duration of major ejection events (class A) is typically on the order of days, while that of less powerful flares (classes B and C) is correspondingly shorter (minutes to hours). The correlations between the X-ray and synchrotron emission clearly indicates a connection between the accretion process and the jet activity. Whether radio and IR outbursts represent actual ejection of blobs of plasma or, alternatively, formation of internal shocks in a quasi-steady jet is unclear (cf. ref. ). In any case, since the overall time scale of outbursts (minutes to days) is much longer than the dynamical time of the compact object (milliseconds), it is likely that shocks will continuously form during the ejection event over a range of time scales that encompass the dynamical time, owing to fluctuations in the parameters of the expelled wind, leading to dissipation of a substantial fraction of the bulk energy at relatively small radii. The extremely rapid variations of the X-ray flux often seen in these sources supports this view (e.g., ref ). If a fraction of at least a few percent of the jet power is tapped for acceleration of electrons to very high energies, then emission of high-energy gamma-rays is anticipated, in addition to the observed radio and IR emission . EGRET upper limits for some X-ray novae have been considered in this context . A recently discovered microquasar which appears to have a persistent radio jet , seems to coincide with an unidentified EGRET source having a total luminosity in excess of its X-ray luminosity.

The content of jets in microquasars is yet an open issue. The synchrotron emission both in the radio and in the IR is consistent with near equipartition magnetic field, which is also implied by minimum energy considerations . However, the dominant energy carrier in the jet is presently unknown (with the exception of the jet in SS433). Scenarios whereby energy extraction is associated with spin down of a Kerr black hole favor $`e^\pm `$ composition (although baryon entrainment is an issue). However, the pair annihilation rate inferred from the estimated jet power implies electromagnetic domination on scales smaller than roughly 109 cm in the superluminal sources, and requires a transition from electromagnetic to particle dominated flow above the annihilation radius by some unspecified mechanism . Alternatively, in scenarios in which an initial rise of the x-ray flux leads to ejection of the inner part of the accretion disk, as widely claimed to be suggested by the anti-correlation between the X-ray and radio flares seen during major ejection events (cf. ref.  for a different interpretation), e-p jets are expected to be produced. A possible diagnostic of e-p jets is the presence of Doppler-shifted spectral lines, such as the Hα line as seen in SS433. The detection of such lines from jets having Lorentz factor well in excess of unity (as is the case in the superluminal microquasars) may, however, be far more difficult than in SS433, as the lines are anticipated to be very broad ($`\mathrm{\Delta }\lambda /\lambda `$ 0.1). Furthermore, the conditions required to produce detectable flux in such sources may be far more extreme than in SS433 . Here we propose another diagnostic of hadronic jets, namely emission of TeV neutrinos. As shown below, for typical parameters the neutrinos are produced on scales much smaller than the IR and radio emission and, therefore, can provide a probe of the innermost structure of microquasars jets.

The picture envisaged is the following: We suppose that on sufficiently small scales ($`10^{11}`$ cm) a significant fraction of the energy liberated during ejection events dissipates, e.g. through the formation of internal collisionless shocks, leading to the acceleration of a non-thermal power law distribution of protons (and electrons) up to the maximum energy achievable. Detailed studies  suggest that shock acceleration of protons may be highly efficient, and should produce a power law spectrum, $`dn_p(ϵ)/dϵϵ^2`$ (perhaps slightly steeper in the case of ultra-relativistic shocks). The fraction of energy carried by the power law component of electrons may depend sensitively on the injection process, but generally thought to constitute a few percent. In the following, we denote by $`\eta _P`$ the fraction of the total burst energy that is tapped for the acceleration of protons to nonthermal energies. We emphasize that $`\eta _p`$ represents essentially the product of the fraction of total burst energy that dissipates behind the shocks (which depends primarily on the duty cycle of shock formation) and the efficiency at which protons are accelerated to nonthermal energies by a single shock (that may approach 100%). Observations of $`\gamma `$-ray bursts, which are believed to arise from a similar process of jet kinetic energy dissipation (albeit with different Lorentz factors and luminosities ), suggest that a significant fraction of the jet energy is dissipated and converted to a power-law distribution of accelerated electrons .

As shown below, synchrotron emission by electrons contributes large opacity to photo-meson production over a range of radii that depends on the strength of the magnetic field. (Since the photo-meson opacity is contributed predominantly by thermal electrons, the analysis outlined below is rendered independent of the details of electron injection to nonthermal energies.) Between 12% to 25% of the injected proton energy is converted, by virtue of the large optical depth, into muon neutrinos having a flat spectrum in the range between 1 and $`100`$ TeV, which then freely escape the system.

Consider a jet of kinetic power $`L_j=10^{38}L_{j38}`$ erg s-1, and opening angle $`\theta =0.1\theta _1`$, with a corresponding proper energy density $`U_j=L_j/(\pi \theta ^2r^2\mathrm{\Gamma }^2c)`$, propagating in the background of X-ray photons emitted by the accretion disc, with luminosity $`L_x=10^{38}L_{x38}`$ erg s-1. In the scenario under consideration, significant fraction of the jet kinetic energy is dissipated via mildly-relativistic internal shocks in the jet at radii

$$r\mathrm{\Gamma }^2c\delta t=3\times 10^7\mathrm{\Gamma }^2\delta t_3\mathrm{cm},$$
(1)
where $`\delta _t=10^3\delta t_3`$ s is the source dynamical time.

The Thomson optical depth across the jet is given by

$$\tau _T=\sigma _Tn_pr\theta \mathrm{\Gamma }0.05\frac{L_{j38}}{\mathrm{\Gamma }r_8\theta _1},$$
(2)
where $`r=10^8r_8`$ cm and the proper proton number density in the jet is $`n_pU_j/(m_pc^2)`$. External photons can therefore penetrate the jet and interact with accelerated protons at radii larger than roughly $`10^7`$ cm. The proton energy, in the jet frame, for which interaction with external X-ray photons is at the $`\mathrm{\Delta }`$-resonance is

$$ϵ_{p,\mathrm{\Delta }}=0.3\mathrm{GeV}^2/\mathrm{\Gamma }ϵ_x=3\times 10^{14}(\mathrm{\Gamma }ϵ_x/1\mathrm{k}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{V})^1\mathrm{eV},$$
(3)
where $`ϵ_x`$ is the observed photon energy.

The time available, in the jet frame, for photo-pion interactions is $`r/\mathrm{\Gamma }c`$. Thus, the optical depth to photo-pion production at the $`\mathrm{\Delta }`$ resonance, contributed by the external photons, is

$$\tau _{p\gamma }c\sigma _{\mathrm{peak}}n_x\frac{r}{\mathrm{\Gamma }c}=1\frac{\mathrm{\Gamma }L_{x38}}{r_8}(ϵ_x/1\mathrm{k}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{V})^1,$$
(4)
where $`\sigma _{\mathrm{peak}}=5\times 10^{28}`$ is the cross section at the $`\mathrm{\Delta }`$-resonance and $`n_x`$ is the number density of background X-ray photons measured in the jet frame: $`n_x\mathrm{\Gamma }(L_x/ϵ_x)/(4\pi r^2c)`$. Thus, photo-meson interactions with external X-ray photons at the inner-most dissipation radii will convert a large fraction of the accelerated proton energy to high energy pions.

Additional contribution to the photo-meson optical depth comes from synchrotron photons produced inside the jet by the thermal electrons. For a relativistic shock, the mean electron energy assuming rapid equilibration time is $`0.5(\mathrm{\Gamma }_s1)m_pc^2`$, where $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_s`$ is the Lorentz factor of the shock. For the microquasars $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_s11`$ typically. This then yields for the (jet frame) peak energy of the synchrotron spectrum,

$$ϵ_{\gamma ,\mathrm{peak}}50\frac{\xi _1^{1/2}L_{j38}^{1/2}}{\mathrm{\Gamma }r_8\theta _1}\mathrm{keV},$$
(5)
where $`\xi =10^1\xi _1`$ is the equipartition parameter, defined through the relation $`B=\sqrt{8\pi \xi U_j}`$. Note, that $`ϵ_{\gamma ,\mathrm{peak}}`$ reduces to infrared energies at a radius of $`10^{13}`$ cm, with a corresponding light crossing time of order minutes, compatible with the variability time of IR baby flares.

Assuming the total energy density of synchrotron photons to be on the order of $`U_j`$ yields for the corresponding energy-dependent number density, defined as $`n_{\mathrm{syn}.}(ϵ)=ϵ(dn_{\mathrm{syn}.}/dϵ)`$,

$`n_{\mathrm{syn}.}(ϵ)`$ $`{\displaystyle \frac{U_j}{ϵ_{\gamma ,\mathrm{peak}}}}\left({\displaystyle \frac{ϵ}{ϵ_{\gamma ,\mathrm{peak}}}}\right)^\alpha `$ (6)
$``$ $`10^{20}\left({\displaystyle \frac{ϵ}{ϵ_{\gamma ,\mathrm{peak}}}}\right)^\alpha {\displaystyle \frac{L_{j38}^{1/2}}{r_8\mathrm{\Gamma }\theta _1\xi _1^{1/2}}}\mathrm{cm}^3,`$ (7)
where $`\alpha =1/2`$ for $`ϵ<ϵ_{peak}`$, and (assuming efficient electron injection) $`\alpha =1`$ for $`ϵ>ϵ_{peak}`$. The spectrum at $`ϵ<ϵ_{peak}`$ results from the fast cooling of electrons. The ratio of electron cooling time, $`t_{\mathrm{syn}}6\pi m_e^2c/\sigma _TB^2m_p`$, to the dynamical time, $`r/\mathrm{\Gamma }c`$, is

$$\frac{t_{\mathrm{syn}.}}{r/\mathrm{\Gamma }c}10^5\frac{\mathrm{\Gamma }^3r_8\theta _1^2}{L_{j38}\xi _1}.$$
(8)
We note that at radii $`r10^9`$ cm, inverse-Compton scattering of electrons is suppressed since scattering is in the Klein-Nishsina regime for photons carrying significant fraction of the synchrotron energy density. At these radii, the fast cooling of electrons indeed implies that the energy density of synchrotron photons is of order $`U_j`$. At larger radii, the energy density of synchrotron photons will be somewhat suppressed due to inverse-Compton emission.

A rough estimate of the energy loss rate of protons due to photo-meson interactions gives: $`t_{p\gamma }^1\sigma _{\mathrm{peak}}n_{\mathrm{syn}.}c(\mathrm{\Delta }ϵ_p/ϵ_p)`$, where $`\mathrm{\Delta }ϵ_p/ϵ_p0.2`$ is the average fractional energy loss in a single collision. Equating the latter with the acceleration rate $`eBc/ϵ_p`$, we obtain for the maximum proton energy,

$$ϵ_{p,\mathrm{max}}5\times 10^{15}\xi _1^{1/2}(\mathrm{\Gamma }r_8\theta _1)^{1/3}L_{j38}^{1/6}\mathrm{eV}.$$
(9)
We emphasize that the proton energy cannot in any case exceed the upper limit imposed by the requirement that the protons be confined to the system; viz., $`ϵ_p<\theta eBr2\times 10^{16}\xi _1^{1/2}L_{j38}^{1/2}\mathrm{\Gamma }^1`$ eV. Comparing the latter with eq. (9) then implies that the maximum proton energy is limited by photo-meson losses at radii $`r_8<10^2L_{j38}^2\mathrm{\Gamma }^4\theta _1^1`$, and by confinement at larger radii.

The comoving proton energy for which interaction with synchrotron peak photons is at the $`\mathrm{\Delta }`$-resonance is

$$ϵ_{p,\mathrm{peak}}=10^{13}\frac{\mathrm{\Gamma }r_8\theta _1}{(\xi _1L_{38})^{1/2}}\mathrm{eV}.$$
(10)
Consequently, protons may be accelerated to energy exceeding that required for photo-meson interaction with synchrotron peak photons for radii

$$rr_c=5\times 10^{11}\frac{L_{j38}^{1/2}\xi _1}{\mathrm{\Gamma }\theta _1}\mathrm{min}(L_{j38}/\mathrm{\Gamma },\xi _1^{1/2})\mathrm{cm}.$$
(11)
From eqs. (9) and (11) it is seen that for our choice of parameters protons can be accelerated to energies $`10^{16}\xi _1`$ eV in the region where photo-meson interactions take place. The contribution of synchrotron photons to the photo-meson optical depth is

$$\tau _{p\gamma }c\sigma _{\mathrm{peak}}n_{\mathrm{syn}.}\frac{r}{\mathrm{\Gamma }c}\frac{10}{\mathrm{\Gamma }^2\theta _1}\left(\frac{L_{j38}}{\xi _1}\right)^{1/2}\left(\frac{ϵ_p}{ϵ_{p,\mathrm{peak}}}\right)^\beta ,$$
(12)
where $`\beta =1/2`$ for $`ϵ_p>ϵ_{p,\mathrm{peak}}`$ and $`\beta =1`$ for $`ϵ_p<ϵ_{p,\mathrm{peak}}`$.

Eq. (12) implies that at all radii the photo-meson optical depth is large for protons of energy exceeding the threshold energy (10) for interaction with synchrotron peak photons. We therefore expect most of the energy of these protons to be lost to pion production. Neutral pions and charged pions are produced in the photo-meson interaction with roughly equal probabilities, and the decay of a charged pion produces 3 neutrinos, $`\pi ^+\mu ^++\nu _\mu e^++\nu _e+\overline{\nu }_\mu +\nu _\mu `$, each carrying $`5\%`$ of the initial proton energy. Due to the high photo-meson optical depth, neutrons produced in photo-pion interactions will lose their energy by photo-meson interactions on a time scale shorter then the neutron life time. This implies similar production rates of both negatively and positively charged pions and, hence, similar production rates of $`\nu _\mu `$ and $`\overline{\nu }_\mu `$.

High energy pions and muons may loose significant fraction of their energy by inverse-Compton scattering prior to decaying. Inverse-Compton scattering of synchrotron photons by high energy pions is in the Klein-Nishina regime for

$$ϵ_\pi ϵ_{\pi ,c}=\frac{(m_\pi c^2)^2}{ϵ_{\gamma ,\mathrm{peak}}}0.4\frac{\mathrm{\Gamma }r_8\theta _1}{(L_{j38}\xi _1)^{1/2}}\mathrm{TeV}.$$
(13)
Comparing this equation with Eq. (10), and noting that the energy of a pion produced by photo-pion interaction is $`20\%`$ of the initial proton energy, we find that pions produced by protons of energy exceeding the threshold energy satisfy $`ϵ_\pi ϵ_{\pi ,c}`$. Thus, the pion inverse-Compton scattering energy loss time is

$$\tau _{IC}\frac{3}{8c\sigma _Tn_{\mathrm{syn}.}}\frac{ϵ_\pi ϵ_{\gamma ,\mathrm{peak}}}{(m_ec^2)^2}=3\times 10^2\xi _1\left(\frac{ϵ_\pi }{1\mathrm{T}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{V}}\right)\mathrm{s},$$
(14)
and the ratio of the pion decay time to energy loss time is

$$\frac{\tau _{IC}}{\tau _{\mathrm{decay}}}10^2\xi _1.$$
(15)
We therefore expect pions to decay prior to significant energy loss. However, muons, the life time of which is $`100`$ times longer, may lose significant fraction of their energy before decaying. In the following we therefore conservatively assume that a single high energy $`\nu _\mu `$ (or $`\overline{\nu }_\mu `$) is produced in a single photo-pion interaction of a proton (or neutron), corresponding to conversion of $`1/8`$ of the energy lost to pion production to muon neutrinos. In terms of $`\eta _p`$, the fraction of jet energy injected as a power law distribution of protons, the flux at Earth of $`\nu _\mu `$ and $`\overline{\nu }_\mu `$ can be expressed as,

$`_{\nu _\mu }`$ $`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}\eta _p\mathrm{\Gamma }^1\delta ^3{\displaystyle \frac{L_j/8}{4\pi D^2}}`$ (16)
$`=`$ $`0.5\times 10^9\eta _{p,1}\mathrm{\Gamma }^1\delta ^3D_{22}^2L_{j38}\mathrm{erg}\mathrm{s}^1\mathrm{cm}^2,`$ (17)
where $`\delta `$ is the Doppler factor, $`D=10^{22}D_{22}`$ cm is the distance to the source, and $`\eta _p=0.1\eta _{p,1}`$. The factor $`1/2`$ is due to the fact that for a flat power-law proton distribution, and for the characteristic parameters invoked, roughly half the energy of the power-law component is carried by protons which lose most of their energy to pion-production \[see Eqs. (10,12)\].

Due to the high photo-meson optical depth at energies $`ϵ_p>ϵ_{p,\mathrm{peak}}`$, we expect a neutrino spectrum similar to the proton spectrum, $`dn_\nu /dϵ_\nu ϵ_\nu ^2`$, above $`1`$ TeV. The probability that a muon neutrino will produce a high-energy muon in a terrestrial detector is  $`P_{\nu \mu }1.3\times 10^6E_{\nu ,\mathrm{TeV}}^\beta `$, with $`\beta =2`$ for $`E_{\nu ,\mathrm{TeV}}<1`$ and $`\beta =1`$ for $`E_{\nu ,\mathrm{TeV}}>1`$. Thus, for a flat neutrino spectrum above 1 TeV, the muon flux at the detector is $`(P_0/E_0)_{\nu _\mu }`$, where $`P_0/E_0=1.3\times 10^6\mathrm{TeV}^1`$. The number of events detected in a burst of energy $`E=10^{43}E_{43}`$ erg is therefore

$$N_\mu 0.2\eta _{p,1}\mathrm{\Gamma }^1\delta ^3D_{22}^2E_{43}(A/1\mathrm{k}\mathrm{m}^2),$$
(18)
where $`A`$ is the effective detector area. For a persistent source (like SS433), the corresponding rate of neutrino induced muon detection is

$$\dot{N}_\mu 0.2\eta _{p,1}\mathrm{\Gamma }^1\delta ^3D_{22}^2L_{j,38}(A/1\mathrm{k}\mathrm{m}^2)\mathrm{day}^1.$$
(19)
For sources directed along our sight line $`\mathrm{\Gamma }^1\delta ^38\mathrm{\Gamma }^2`$ may exceed 100. Thus, if the fraction $`\eta _p`$ exceeds a few percent, several neutrinos can be detected during a typical outburst even from a source at 10 kpc. The typical angular resolution of the planned neutrino telescopes at TeV energies (e.g. ) should be $`\theta 1`$ degree. The atmospheric neutrino background flux is $`\mathrm{\Phi }_{\nu ,bkg}10^7ϵ_{nu,\mathrm{TeV}}^{2.5}/\mathrm{cm}^2\mathrm{s}\mathrm{sr}`$, implying a number of detected background events $`N_{bkg}3\times 10^2(\theta /\text{deg})^2t_{\mathrm{day}}\mathrm{km}^2`$ per angular resolution element over a burst duration $`1t_{\mathrm{day}}`$ day. The neutrino signals above $`10`$ TeV from a typical micro-quasar outburst should therefore be easily detected above the background.

The duration of the neutrino burst should be of the order of the blob’s ejection time. It should precede the associated radio outburst, or the emergence of a new superluminal component, that originate from larger scales ($`10^{15}`$ cm), by several hours.

As an example, let us consider the 1994 March 19 outburst observed in GRS 1915+105 . This source is at a distance of about 12 kpc, or $`D_{22}=3.5`$. From the proper motions measured with the VLA, a speed of 0.92c and angle to the line of sight of $`\theta 70^{}`$ are inferred for the ejecta, corresponding to a Doppler factor $`\delta 0.58`$. A conservative estimate of the total energy released during this event yields $`E_{43}=20`$ . From eq. (18) we then obtain, $`N_\mu 0.03\eta _{p,1}`$ for a 1 km2 detector. At $``$10 TeV this is above the background, but would require an average of $`30`$ outbursts for detection. We note that if a similar event were to occur in a source that is located closer to Earth, at a distance of say 3 kpc as in the case of the superluminal source GRO J1655-40 (which has a similar Doppler factor), or from a jet oriented at a smaller angle, then a few or even a single outburst may produce several muon events in such a detector. This suggests that even sources that are beamed away from us might be detectable during particularly strong outbursts.

As a second example consider the source SS433. This source, at a distance of 3 kpc, exhibits a steady jet that moves with a speed of $`0.3`$c. The presence of $`H_\alpha `$ lines indicates a baryonic content. A conservative estimate of the jet’s kinetic power yields $`L_j10^{39}`$ ergs s-1 . Thus of order $`10^3\eta _{p,1}`$ events per year per km2 are anticipated. This rate is consistent with the MACRO upper limit . Emission of TeV neutrinos from this source has been proposed earlier , although the mechanism invoked in this ref. is pp collisions.

Positive detection of TeV neutrinos from microquasar jets would imply a baryonic content (althogh non-detection does necessarily imply a pair dominated jet), and would have important consequences for the mechanisms responsible for the ejection and confinement of jets. It would also provide important information concerning dissipation and particle acceleration in shocks. Contemporaneous detections of gamma-rays may even enable us to infer the relative efficiencies at which electrons and protons are accelerated in shocks by comparing the total energies emitted as neutrinos and gamma-rays during outbursts, thereby resolving a long standing issue.

We thank F. Aharonian, R. Blandford, C. Dermer, and D. Eichler for useful comments. AL acknowledges support by the Israel Science Foundation. EW is partially supported by BSF Grant 9800343, AEC Grant 38/99 and MINERVA Grant.