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# Ultrahigh Energy Neutrinos in the Light of SuperK

## Abstract

We propose a novel approach for studying neutrino oscillations with extragalactic neutrinos. We show that measurement of the neutrino induced upward hadronic and electromagnetic showers and upward muons could be used to detect $`\nu _\mu \nu _\tau `$ oscillations. We find significant signal to background ratios for the hadronic/electromagnetic showers with energies above 10 TeV to 100 TeV initiated by the extragalactic neutrinos. We demonstrate that a kilometer-size neutrino telescope has a very good chance of detecting neutrino oscillations.

Recent SuperK data on atmospheric neutrinos indicate $`\nu _\mu \nu _\tau `$ oscillations with mixing being nearly bi-maximal superk , in agreement with previously reported results on the atmospheric anomaly by Kamiokande kamioka  and MACRO macro  and consistent with limits from other experiments, e.g., CHOOZ chooz . Direct detection of $`\nu _\tau `$ appearance is extremely difficult because at low energies, the charged-current cross section for producing a tau is small and the tau has a very short lifetime. Several long-baseline experiments with accelerator sources of $`\nu _\mu `$ MINOS ; K2K ; ICARUS ; NOE ; OPERA  have been proposed with the goal of detecting tau neutrinos from oscillations, thus confirming the SuperK results. Until recently, the only convincing evidence of neutrino oscillations involved indirect measurements, namely the disappearance of the expected neutrino fluxes from the sun and atmospheric neutrinos. A recent breakthrough in the study of neutrino oscillations came from the SNO experiment of a direct observation of solar neutrino conversion into other active flavor SNO1 . SNO measurement of the elastic scattering rate is consistent with the precision elastic scattering measurement by SuperK fukuda , and both experiments are in very good agreement with the theoretical prediction for the $`{}_{}{}^{8}B`$ flux bachall .

We have recently discussed complementary way of detecting neutrino oscillations, namely the possibility of a kilometer-size neutrino telescope detecting neutrino oscillations using extragalactic sources of high-energy neutrinos such as Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) and Gamma Ray Bursts (GRB) irs ; drs00 ; drs01 . The large distances involved for astrophysical sources, on the order of one to thousands of Megaparsecs, make the next generation of neutrino experiments potentially sensitive to neutrino mass differences as low as $`\mathrm{\Delta }m^210^{17}`$ eV2. Assuming maximal mixing, over such long baselines, half of the neutrinos arriving at the earth would be $`\nu _\tau `$’s in oscillation scenarios, the other half being $`\nu _\mu `$’s. The effect of attenuation of the neutrino flux due to interactions of neutrinos in the Earth is qualitatively different for $`\nu _\mu `$ and $`\nu _\tau `$ halzen . Muon neutrinos are absorbed by charged current interactions, while tau neutrinos are regenerated by tau decays. The Earth never becomes opaque to $`\nu _\tau `$, though the effect of $`\nu _\tau \tau \nu _\tau `$ interaction and decay processes is to degrade the energy of the incident $`\nu _\tau `$. The identical spectra of $`\nu _\mu `$ and $`\nu _\tau `$ incident on the Earth emerge after passage through the Earth with distinctly different spectra. The preferential penetration of $`\nu _\tau `$ through the Earth is of great importance for high energy neutrino telescopes such as AMANDA, NESTOR and ANTARES.

Here we consider $`\nu _\mu `$ and $`\nu _\tau `$ propagation through the Earth and show that the energy spectrum of the $`\nu _\tau `$ becomes enhanced at low energy. The degree of enhancement depends on the initial neutrino flux. We consider initial fluxes $`F_\nu ^0E^n`$ for $`n=1,2,3.6`$, a GRB flux waxman  and an AGN flux stecker . We solve the coupled transport equations for lepton and neutrino fluxes as indicated below.

Let $`F_{\nu _\tau }(E,X)`$ and $`F_\tau (E,X)`$ be the differential energy spectrum of tau neutrinos and tau respectively at a column depth $`X`$ in the medium. Then, one can derive the following cascade equation for neutrinos as,

$`{\displaystyle \frac{F_{\nu _\tau }(E,X)}{X}}={\displaystyle \frac{F_{\nu _\tau }(E,X)}{\lambda _{\nu _\tau }(E)}}+{\displaystyle _E^{\mathrm{}}}𝑑E_y\left[{\displaystyle \frac{F_{\nu _\tau }(E_y,X)}{\lambda _{\nu _\tau }(E_y)}}\right]{\displaystyle \frac{dn}{dE}}(\nu _\tau N\nu _\tau X;E_y,E)`$
$`+`$ $`{\displaystyle _E^{\mathrm{}}}𝑑E_y\left[{\displaystyle \frac{F_\tau (E_y,X)}{\rho _\tau ^{dec}(E_y)}}\right]{\displaystyle \frac{dn}{dE}}(\tau \nu _\tau X;E_y,E)+{\displaystyle _E^{\mathrm{}}}𝑑E_y\left[{\displaystyle \frac{F_\tau (E_y,X)}{\lambda _\tau (E_y)}}\right]{\displaystyle \frac{dn}{dE}}(\tau N\nu _\tau X;E_y,E)`$
and for taus as,

$`{\displaystyle \frac{F_\tau (E,X)}{X}}={\displaystyle \frac{F_\tau (E,X)}{\lambda _\tau (E)}}{\displaystyle \frac{F_\tau (E,X)}{\rho _\tau ^{dec}(E,X,\theta )}}+{\displaystyle _E^{\mathrm{}}}𝑑E_y\left[{\displaystyle \frac{F_{\nu _\tau }(E_y,X)}{\lambda _{\nu _\tau }(E_y)}}\right]{\displaystyle \frac{dn}{dE}}(\nu _\tau N\tau X;E_y,E).`$
The first term in Eq. (1) is a loss due to the neutrino interactions, the second is the regeneration term due to the neutral current, the third term is a contribution due to the tau decay and the last term is the contribution due to tau interactions. In Eq. (2), the first term is a loss due to tau interactions, the second term is a loss due to the tau decay, while the last term is a contribution from neutrino charged current interactions. As a practical matter, tau decays are more important than tau interactions at the energies considered here, though interactions become more important at higher energies seckel . Here $`\lambda (E)`$ is the interaction length and $`\rho _\tau ^{dec}(E,X,\theta )`$ is the decay length for tau. The charged and neutral current energy distributions, $`dn/dE`$, and the total cross section, $`\sigma _{\nu T}^{tot}(E)`$ are calculated taking into account recent improvements in our knowledge of the small-x behavior of the structure functions gqrs98 .

To demonstrate the importance of regeneration of tau neutrinos from tau decays, we evaluate the tau neutrino flux for several input neutrino spectra and compare to the attenuated $`\nu _\mu `$ flux. For the incoming neutrino spectrum we use power law spectrum, i.e. $`F_\nu ^0(E)=K\left(\frac{E_0}{E}\right)^n`$. In Fig. 1 we show the energy dependence of the the ratio of fluxes for nadir angles $`\theta =0^0`$, $`\theta =30^{}`$ and $`\theta =60^{}`$ for $`\nu _\mu `$ and $`\nu _\tau `$.

For small nadir angles, $`\theta =0`$ and $`30^{}`$ and $`F_\nu ^0(E)1/E`$ we find that enhancement of tau neutrinos is in the energy range of $`10^2`$ GeV and $`10^5`$ GeV, while for $`\theta =60^{}`$, the enhancement extends up to $`10^6`$ GeV. In contrast the $`\nu _\mu `$ flux is attenuated for all the nadir angles. When the incoming flux is steeper, $`n=2`$, the $`\nu _\tau `$ flux appears to be attenuated at high energies, although less than the $`\nu _\mu `$ flux. For $`n=3.6`$, the energy dependence of these two fluxes is very similar, they are both reduced at high energies, and the effect is stronger for smaller nadir angle, since in this case the column depth is larger and there are more charged current interactions possible. In case of the AGN quasar model stecker , for example, we find that the $`\nu _\tau `$ flux is a factor of $`2`$ to $`2.5`$ times larger than the input flux, for nadir angle, $`\theta =0`$ and $`E=10^210^4`$ GeVirs . For larger angles, the effect is smaller.

The appearance of high energy tau neutrinos due to $`\nu _\mu \nu _\tau `$ oscillations of extragalactic neutrinos can be observed by measuring the neutrino induced upward hadronic and electromagnetic showers and upward muons. Charged-current interactions of the upward tau neutrinos below and in the detector, and the subsequent tau decay create muons or hadronic and electromagnetic showers. The background for these events are muon neutrino and electron neutrino charged-current and neutral-current interactions, where in addition to extragalactic neutrinos, we also include the background from atmospheric neutrinos.

In Fig. 2a) we show that tau neutrinos give significant contributions to upward hadronic/EM showers, signaling the $`\nu _\tau `$ appearance. The solid lines show the event rates including contributions for $`\nu _\tau ,\nu _\mu `$ and $`\nu _e`$. The dashed lines are from $`\nu _\mu +\nu _e`$, assuming equal neutrino and antineutrino fluxes of each flavor. We note that in the case of the $`E^1`$ flux, the contributions from tau neutrinos are large, a factor of 4 times larger than the muon neutrino plus electron neutrino contribution at zero nadir angle. For horizontal showers, the enhancement factor is smaller, about 2 for all the energy thresholds that we consider. Similarly, for $`E^2`$ flux, the tau neutrino contribution is a factor of 1.7 times larger than the muon neutrino plus electron neutrino contributions for upward showers. The rates for AGN quasar model stecker , at zero nadir angle, are comprised of 60% tau neutrino induced events, decreasing to about 40% tau neutrino induced events for horizontal showers, translating to 25-80 shower events for $`E_{\mathrm{shr}}^{\mathrm{min}}=10`$ TeV and 6-45 events for $`E_{\mathrm{shr}}^{\mathrm{min}}=100`$ TeV with negligible atmospheric background drs00 .

We note that for the $`E^1`$ flux, the shower event rates for $`\nu _\tau +\nu _\mu +\nu _e`$ are a factor of 3.3-3.7 larger than in the $`\nu _\mu +\nu _e`$ contributions in the no-oscillation scenario for $`E_{\mathrm{shr}}^{\mathrm{min}}=1100`$ TeV for $`\theta =0^{}`$. They are a factor of 1.6 enhanced for the horizontal shower rate. For the $`E^2`$ flux, the enhancement is a factor of 1.4-1.6 relative to the $`\nu _\mu +\nu _e`$ no-oscillation shower rate for $`E_{\mathrm{shr}}^{\mathrm{min}}=1100`$ TeV. In the case of AGN models, if one assumes oscillations, the shower event rates are factor of 1.8-2.1 larger at zero nadir angle, decreasing to 1.5 for nearly horizontal showers drs00 . Given the uncertainties in the normalizations of the extragalactic neutrino fluxes, combining muon rates and hadronic/EM rates offer the best chance to test the $`\nu _\mu \nu _\tau `$ oscillation hypothesis.

As concluded in earlier work gqrs96 ; gqrs98 , in general, an energy threshold of between 10 TeV and 100 TeV for upward muons and showers is needed in order to reduce the background from atmospheric neutrinos. We find that diffuse AGN neutrino fluxes, as well as neutrinos from GRBs can be used to detect tau appearance. By measuring upward showers with energy threshold of 10 TeV, and upward muons, the event rates exceed the atmospheric background and are about a factor of 1.5-2 larger than in the no-oscillation scenario drs00 .

To determine the relative enhancement of the hadronic/EM signal compared to the muon signal, one can compare the rates for horizontal events, where tau neutrino pileup is small. For example, Fig. 2b) shows a clear distinction between oscillation and no-oscillation scenarios, even in directions near horizontal, where there is no pileup. Even with a small tau neutrino pileup, the oscillation scenario can be distinguished from the no-oscillation scenario.

The detection of $`\nu _\mu \nu _\tau `$ oscillations with a point source might also be possible. With the resolution for the planned neutrino telescopes of $`2^{}`$, the atmospheric background is reduced by $`3.8\times 10^3`$. For upward showers, this gives less than 1 event per year for $`E_{\mathrm{shr}}^{\mathrm{min}}=1`$ TeV, and even less for higher energy thresholds. Thus, if the point source has a flat spectrum, $`F_{\nu +\overline{\nu }}=10^{16}E^1`$, then one would be able to detect tau neutrinos by measuring upward showers with $`E_{\mathrm{shr}}^{\mathrm{min}}=1`$ TeV. In the more realistic case, when the point source has a steeper spectrum ($`E^2`$), such as Sgr A\* markoff98 , a normalization of $`10^7`$/(cm2s sr GeV) would be sufficient for the detection of tau neutrinos with threshold of 1 TeV. Time correlations with variable point sources would further enhance the signal relative to the background.

We have demonstrated that extragalactic sources of neutrinos can be used as a very-long baseline experiment, providing a source of tau neutrinos and opening up a new frontier in studying neutrinos oscillations.

Acknowledgements

This work has been supported in part by the DOE under Contract DE-FG02-95ER40906 and in part by National Science Foundation Grant No. PHY-9802403.


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# References

The maximum entropy tecniques and the statistical description of systems
B.Z. Belashev1) and M.K. Suleymanov2,3)

1) Institute of Geology, Karelian Research Centre, RAS, Petrozavodsk, Russia
2) LHE JINR, Dubna, Moscow region, Russia
3) NPI ASCR, Rez near Prague, Czech Republic

Abstract

The maximum entropy technique (MENT) is used to determine the distribution functions of physical values. MENT naturally combines required maximum entropy, the properties of a system and connection conditions in the form of restrictions imposed on the system. It can, therefore, be employed to statistically describe closed and open systems. Examples in which MENT is used to describe equilibrium and non-equilibrium states, as well as steady states that are far from being in thermodynamic equilibrium, are discussed.

Statistical characteristics are widely used in high-energy physics to analyse experimental data . A simple analytical technique is employed by estimating the entropy of nuclear reaction products a parameter which is sensitive to order-disorder transition, and provides evidence for the formation of ordered systems during a reaction .

Entropy methods for simulation of processes are being increasingly applied to various processes . An example of such an approach is the study of dynamic symmetry and internal chaos in models of interacting bozons  conducted using the maximum entropy technique (MENT) .

MENT provides an efficient tool for solving inverse problems . Its application to statistical problems is promising. It is desirable, however, to test MEM for models that have already been proven to be reliable for statistical descriptions. In the present study, the applicability of MENT was tested by describing the equilibrium and non-equilibrium state of systems.

The goal of a statistical description of a system is to determine the distribution functions of physical values represented by an integral image in the results of observation. If distribution functions are assessed only on the basis of observation data on a system, then, from a mathematical point of view, an incorrect inverse problem arises in which the requirements of the existence, uniqueness and stability of a solution are not met. The condition of maximum entropy makes it possible to meet this requirement automatically. Only one solution of the problem is selected out of all. This solution has a maximum entropy, is most probable and, therefore, most stable. The resultant solution is obviously positive because the MENT estimate is in exponential form and agrees with one of the main properties of the distribution function — non-negativity. Other properties of the distribution function, e.g. normalization in MENT, can be preset as additional restrictions.

The theory of MENT is based on the second law of thermodynamics which describes the thermodynamic equilibrium of a closed system by maximum entropy. Attempts have been made to generalize this principle by arguing that entropy in internal dissipative processes is maximum . The requirement of maximum entropy, the property of a system and condition of connection in the form of restrictions placed on the system are naturally combined in MENT so that it can be used to statistically describe the equilibrium and non-equilibrium states of open and closed systems.

The mathematical structure of an entropy functional is related to the type of the quantum statistics of a physical data carrier and the extent of filling of quantum degrees of freedom . The entropy functional

$$H=\underset{\xi =1}{\overset{N}{}}f(\xi )\mathrm{ln}f(\xi ),$$
(1)
where $`f(\xi )`$ is the distribution function estimate and $`\xi `$ is an independent variable, is used for fermions and bozons with a low probability of filling of energy levels, such as photons of incoherent electromagnetic radiation, hadrons and $`\gamma `$-quanta. When the filling of energy levels is highly probable, a different form of a functional, like the one used in radioastronomy or spectral analysis , is selected:

$$H=\underset{\xi =1}{\overset{N}{}}\mathrm{ln}f(\xi )$$
(2)
We will use the most common form of an entropy functional (1).

1. Boltzman’s distribution

Let us use MENT to determine the distribution of $`N`$-particles on the $`K`$-levels of energy $`E_i`$, which has a maximum entropy, total energy $`E`$ and the number of particles $`N`$ being retained:

$`{\displaystyle \underset{i=1}{\overset{K}{}}}n_iE_i=E`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{i=1}{\overset{K}{}}}n_i=N`$
Let us formulate the problem of estimating the probability $`f_i=\frac{n_i}{N}`$ of finding a particle on level $`E_i`$ as a variation problem on a conditional extremum with the Lagrange factors $`\lambda `$ and $`\mu `$ in the form:

$$\underset{i=1}{\overset{K}{}}f_i\mathrm{ln}f_i+\lambda \left(NE\underset{i=1}{\overset{K}{}}f_iE_i\right)+\mu \left(1\underset{i=1}{\overset{K}{}}f_i\right)\mathrm{max}.$$
(4)
Let us equate the first variation of this relation (4) on $`f_i`$ to zero. We will then have a relation:

$$\mathrm{ln}f_i1\mu \lambda E_i=0$$
(5)
which gives an expression for probability $`f_i`$:

$$f_i=\frac{1}{Z}\mathrm{exp}(\lambda E_i).$$
(6)
This distribution function is identical to the Boltzman distribution function if factor $`\lambda `$ is understood as inverse temperature $`\lambda =1/kT`$, and factor $`\mu =\mathrm{ln}(Z/e)`$.

The requirement of maximum entropy in a closed system with a constant number of particles and constant energy results in Boltzman distribution.

2. Non-equilibrium distribution

Let us use the MENT algorithm to describe the state of a two-level system (levels 1 and 2) which has magnetic moment $`M`$ and consists of $`N`$-particles with magnetic moment $`m`$. Let us consider that a magnetic field is absent, the system is not in equilibrium and the magnetic moments of the particles located on levels 1 and 2 have opposite directions.

Let $`f(1)`$ and $`f(2)`$ are the probabilities of finding a particle on levels 1 and 2, respectively. Equations for the complete probability and polarization $`P`$ of the system will be regarded as connection conditions:

$$f(1)+f(2)=1$$
(7)
$$f(1)f(2)=M/Nm=P.$$
(8)
To estimate $`f(1)`$ and $`f(2)`$, we will use a conventional MENT scheme with a functional:

$$f(1)\mathrm{ln}f(1)f(2)\mathrm{ln}f(2)+\mu (1f(1)f(2))+\lambda (P+f(2)f(1))\mathrm{max}.$$
(9)
The formulas

$`\mathrm{ln}f(1)1\mu \lambda =0`$
$`\mathrm{ln}f(2)1\mu +\lambda =0`$
obtained from condition (9) give expressions for probabilities:

$`f(1)=\mathrm{exp}(1\mu \lambda )`$
$`f(2)=\mathrm{exp}(1\mu +\lambda ).`$
The substitution of these expressions in conditions (7) and (8) determines a relationship between Lagrange factors:

$`\mathrm{exp}(1\mu )2\text{ch}(\lambda )=1`$
$`\mathrm{exp}(1\mu )2\text{sh}(\lambda )=P.`$
Dividing the first equation by the second one, we will have expression:

$$P=\text{th}(\lambda )$$
(13)
for the polarization $`P`$ of the system. Comparing it with an expression for the polarization of the equilibrium state of a two-level system with magnetic moment $`M`$ in magnetic field $`H`$ :

$$P=\text{th}(mH/kT)$$
(14)
we conclude that taking $`\lambda =mH/kT`$, we thus characterize a non-equilibrium state as quasi-equilibrium with magnetic field $`H`$ which agrees with given polarization $`P`$ or magnetic moment $`M`$:

$$H(P)=(kT/2m)\mathrm{ln}[(1+P)/(1P)].$$
(15)
The result obtained implies that if there is a magnetic field which is switched off instantly, the thermodynamically equilibrium state of a two-level system becomes non-equilibrium and cannot change immediately. Therefore, at moments of time that are small in comparison with the relaxation time of the system this state is described as quasi-equilibrium, provided there is a magnetic field which decreases gently in magnitude.

3. Steady states of open systems

The steady states of open systems that are far from equilibrium are observed in many processes. Systems with autocatalytic chemical reactions were among the first to show characteristic types of behaviour of such systems, such as double stability, oscillation and wave generation interpreted by the mechanism of autocatalysis . An example of such a reaction is Belousov-Zhabotinsky s reaction with cerium sulphate $`Ce_2(SO_4)_3`$, malonic acid $`CH_2(COOH)_2`$, potassium bromate $`KbrO_3`$ and ferroine that are vigorously mixed and supplied to reaction volume from which reaction products are simultaneously removed. Cerium, which catalyzes the reaction, contributes to the production of two molecules from one molecule of an intermediate product of $`HbrO_2`$:

$$HBrO_2+BrO_3^{}+3H^++2Ce^{3+}2HBrO_2+2Ce^{4+}+H_2O.$$
(16)
In this case, the catalyst is not spent, but its valency changes. Ferroine adds a red colour to the solution, if there is an excess of trivalent cerium ions, and a blue colour if there is an excess of quadrivalent cerium ions. If the time of staying of the reagents in the reaction zone is too short to adjust direct and inverse reaction rates, then such phenomena as bistability and chemical hours (periodic alternation of bistable states with an excess of tri- or quadrivalent cerium ions) occur in the system. The colour of the reaction solution varies with a period of several minutes. If the reagents are not mixed, waves are generated and travel.

To exemplify the steady states of open systems, let us discuss a simple model of autocatalysis  represented by two conjugate chemical reactions:

$$A+2X\underset{k_2}{\overset{k_1}{}}3X,X\underset{k_4}{\overset{k_3}{}}B.$$
(17)
The concentration of intermediate product $`X`$ is accepted as the only state variable. Substances $`A`$ and $`B`$ are either continuously supplied to the system or are removed from it, thereby providing the constancy of their concentrations $`a`$ and $`b`$. Substance $`A`$ is a catalyst. It increases the amount of intermediate product $`X`$ which, at the same time, is transformed to substance $`B`$.

At equilibrium, the rates of direct and inverse reactions are equal:

$`k_1ax^2`$ $`=k_2x^3`$
$`k_3x`$ $`=k_4b.`$
This relation determines in the only manner the concentration of intermediate product $`x`$ and the reagent concentration ratio $`a/b`$:

$`x={\displaystyle \frac{k_4b}{k_3}}={\displaystyle \frac{k_1a}{k_2}}`$
$`{\displaystyle \frac{b}{a}}={\displaystyle \frac{k_1k_3}{k_2k_4}}.`$
When a steady state is far from equilibrium, it is characterized by the balancing of the total effects of direct and inverse reactions in the form of a cubic equation:

$$k_2x^3+k_1ax^2k_3x+k_4b=0.$$
(20)
Using the conventional MENT scheme to describe such a steady state with connection condition (20)

$$x\mathrm{ln}x+\lambda (k_2x^3+k_1ax^2k_3x+k_4)\mathrm{max},$$
(21)
we come to the equation:

$$\mathrm{ln}x=\lambda (3k_2x^2+2k_1axk_3)$$
(22)
which can easily be solved graphically.

It is much more difficult now to trace a relationship between Lagrange factor $`\lambda `$ and concentration $`x`$ because of a lack of an analytical expression. However, the characteristics of the process described can be determined from relation (22). This equation can have either one or two solutions. In the latter case, bistability exists in an open chemical system and the phenomenon of chemical hours can occur. In this case, the values of concentrations x corresponding to these states are found to be quantitatively dependent and obviously positive and the states are most stable in accordance with MENT.

A relationship between Lagrange factor $`\lambda `$, concentration $`x`$ and other parameters of the problem can easily be shown for the case when equation (22) has one solution. The graphs of the logarithm in the left part and those of a parabola in the right part of the equation touch each other and, consequently, have a common tangent. Let us transform the equality of the derivatives of these functions

$$\frac{1}{x}=\lambda (6k_2x+2k_1a)$$
(23)
into a quadratic equation:

$$6k_2\lambda x^22k_1a\lambda x+1=0.$$
(24)
Because the solution is unique, the discriminant of this quadratic equation must be equal to zero:

$$4k_1^2a^2\lambda ^224k_2\lambda =0.$$
(25)
Lagrange factor $`\lambda `$ can thus be expressed by the relation:

$$\lambda =\frac{6k_2}{k_1^2a^2},$$
(26)
and concentration $`x`$ , which passes to a bistable mode, by the relation:

$$x=\frac{k_1a}{6k_2}.$$
(27)
The value. It has been shown experimentally that transition to a bistable mode occurs before thermodynamic equilibrium sets in.

MENT is a convenient technique for simulation of systems because it allows to use not only empirical but also a priori information. One can estimate the sensitivity of the distribution function to one or another condition. To model complex statistical systems on a computer, special MENT algorithms  are used.

Conclusions

1. MENT is an up-to-date and promising technique, which can efficiently be used to solve statistical problems. The MENT estimate of the distribution function agrees with the density properties of probability. The non-negativity property is satisfied automatically because the MENT solution has an exponential form, and normalization can be considered one of additional conditions observed when applying the technique.

2. Generalizing the second law of thermodynamics for open systems, one can use MENT for their statistical description.

3. When describing equilibrium and non-equilibrium states on the basis of conventional statistical models, MENT gives known results and new results when used to describe the steady states of open systems with autocatalytic reactions.

4. A simple scheme, observation data and a priori information used as restrictions make MENT a convenient tool for describing and modelling various processes, including those in high-energy physics.


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# Automated classification of variable stars for ASAS data

## 1. Introduction

In its test-implementation, the ASAS project measured 50 fields ($`2\times 3`$ deg2 each) in $`I`$-band with a 135 mm f/1.8 telephoto lens during the years 1997-2000. Pojmanski detected about 3900 variables stars, he listed among them 380 periodic variable stars. We propose an automated method which classifies a subsample from ASAS stars in a two step procedure by: 1) finding a satisfactory Fourier decomposition for the light curve, 2) applying Autoclass (Cheesemen 1996), a Bayesian classifier, on the parameters obtained for each light curve. Several tests were done and the best classification was obtained when Period, Amplitude, Skewness and Amplitude ratio (first overtone/fundamental amplitudes of the Fourier decomposition) were used as the input parameters. The subsample is formed by 458 stars which have a fair periodic behaviour, and some time series with aliasing periods have been removed.

## 2. Results

For a fraction of red giant stars, a clear relation between period and amplitude can be seen (cf. Fig. 1, left). This relation is also seen in infrared photometry (van Loon, these proceedings). The classes found are (see Fig. 1, right): small amplitude and sinusoidal curves ($``$100), Eclipsing binaries ($``$144), Cepheids ($``$48), SARV ($``$40), SR ($``$81), Mira ($``$45). The RR Lyrae stars are too few (too faint) to form a group, so they might be recovered as extreme objects in some classes. Some classes are divided in subgroups. For instance, the eclipsing binaries are classified in three subgroups, which correspond approximately to EA, EB, and EW, but with some mixture. The decomposition in Fourier series is not optimal for such a separation. Principal components analysis will be applied to separate the different types of eclipsing systems. The subgroups of SRs will be studied to see if they corresponds to real physical distinctions.

## 3. Conclusion

With the method we propose on the ASAS sample, we show that an Automated Classification can be reached with a level of incorrect classification of about 5%. This rate has to be reduced when very large datasets will be considered. There are, of course, irreducible classification ambiguities from the light curve alone (e.g. RRc and eclipsing binaries of EW type unless measured with very accurate photometry), but multi-colour photometry and/or spectroscopy can help to lift the ambiguity.

Our acknowledgements go to Prof. B.Paczynski, Dr C.Alard & Dr A.Gautschy for their fruitful discussions and comments.

## 4. Internet Links

ASAS Home Page: http://archive.princeton.edu/asas/
For this work: http://www.astro.princeton.edu/leyer/ASAS/
See also HAT Home Page: http://www.astro.princeton.edu/bakos/HAT

## References

Cheeseman, P., Stutz, J. 1996, ”Bayesian classification (AutoClass): Theory and results” in Advances in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, U.M. Fayyad, G.Piatetsky-Shapiro, P.Smyth, & R.Uthurusamy, Eds.

Pojmanski, G. 2000, AcA 50, 177


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# Stellar and circumstellar evolution of long period variable stars

## 1 Introduction

LPVs are particularly interesting red giants for two main reasons. On the one hand, the brightest LPVs are luminous enough to be observed at large distances, providing information on the host galaxy (Van Loon et al., 1999a). On the other hand, although their precise ranges of masses and ages remain controversial, it is clear that they are large enough. Thus LPVs are very good tracers of the galactic history. Moreover the final evolution along the AGB, and peculiarly the carbon surface enrichment and the change of the envelope chemistry, is very complex. It depends on many factors (as convection, overshooting, internal chemical process, mass-loss, pulsation, etc.), the relative effects of which depend on the mass and metallicity, among other things.

In a previous paper (Mennessier et al., 2000), hereafter Paper I, HIPPARCOS astrometric data and multi-wavelength photometric measurements of a sample of 800 LPVs (semi-regular a and b, irregular L and Mira with O,S and C spectral types) were analyzed using the LM algorithm (Luri, Mennessier et al., 1996). V,K and IRAS 12 and 25 luminosities were calibrated. The LM algorithm classified the stars according to the galactic population (associated with the initial mass and metallicity of the stars) and to the circumstellar envelope thickness and expansion. Several groups were obtained in this classification:

* Bright disk (BD) and disk (disk 1 or D1) LPVs with bright and expanding envelopes.
* Not so young and massive disk population (disk 2 or D2) divided into two subgroups: one with a thin envelope (denoted f) and another one with a bright and expanding envelope (denoted b).
* Old disk (OD) population, showing a similar separation (b and f) according to envelope properties.
* Some LPVs were included in the extended disk (ED) population.

These groups were obtained by combining K and IRAS results.

From kinematic properties, the disk 1 population was found to be 1-4 $`10^9`$ yr old, disk 2 population 4-8 $`10^9`$ yr old and the old disk population older than 8 $`10^9`$ yr, up to $`10^{10}`$ yr or even more. An extended disk was assumed to be composed of very old, metal-deficient stars.

The lower limits of the main sequence initial mass, $`_{ms}`$, were estimated to be in the range 2-1.4 $`_{\mathrm{}}`$ , 1.4-1.15 $`_{\mathrm{}}`$, and 1.15-1 $`_{\mathrm{}}`$ for disk 1, disk 2 and old disk populations respectively. Moreover, in paper I, statistical estimates were done to quantify how much groups and various variability and spectral types attract or repel each other.

Each star of the sample was assigned to a galactic population and its individual K and IRAS 12 and 25 absolute magnitudes were estimated. A table with these values is available in electronic form at CDS 111via anonymous FTP to cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsweb.u-strasbg.fr/cgi-bin/qcat?J/A+A/.They also are available in the ASTRID specialized database 222http://astrid.graal.univ-montp2.fr.

In this paper, we use the estimated individual stellar absolute magnitudes (K) together with properties of the circumstellar envelopes (deduced from IRAS absolute magnitudes) and the assigned galactic population to define an evolutive scenario of simultaneous stellar and circumstellar evolution of LPVs along the Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB). We aimed to link the chemical evolution from O-rich to C-rich LPVs or OH emitters (through the intermediate states of S and/or Tc LPVs) and the stellar and circumstellar evolution, depending on the galactic population, i.e. on the initial mass, as discussed in sect. 2.

In Sect. 3 we examine the first stages of O-rich LPVs and their correlation with initial mass. More precisely, we propose and critically study several possible explanations for the gap observed in the distribution of O-rich LPVs, separating those with and without a circumstellar shell.

Sect. 4 is dedicated to the brightest O and C-rich LPVs and points out candidates for peculiarities like Hot Bottom Burning (HBB). Special attention is given to the case of R Cen, a star in a He-shell flash.

Finally, a global stellar and circumstellar evolutive scenario is proposed in Sect.5, which takes into account the differences between galactic populations and explains both chemical and variability-type changes.

## 2 Chemical evolution

It is well known that K and IRAS absolute magnitudes reflect the properties of various parts of the star. The K magnitude depends mainly on the characteristics of the stellar surface, whereas IRAS fluxes are linked to envelope thickness and dust composition. Using both types of magnitudes, information about the stellar and circumstellar properties can be obtained.

Here we mainly use the individual absolute magnitudes and assigned galactic populations estimated in Paper I. It is convenient to recall that our sample was found to be representative of the LPV population as far as the kinematics and the brightest luminosities are concerned, but is under-representative for K and IRAS faint stars  (see Paper I).

### 2.1 From O-rich to C-rich LPVs

Figure 1 shows the distribution of the individual estimated K absolute magnitudes and 25-12 333$`m_{25}=2.072.5\times \mathrm{log}F_{25}`$ and $`m_{12}=3.632.5\times \mathrm{log}F_{12}`$ indices deduced from the estimated IRAS absolute magnitudes according to the assigned kinematical groups and spectral types. A bimodal distribution of stars with a deficit in the number of stars around 25-12=-0.2 is clear, mainly for the lower mass stars (disk 2 and old disk). Sect. 3 will examine in detail this gap for O-rich stars. In the present section we focus on the fact that this area contains mainly C-rich stars belonging to disk population. Moreover it corresponds to the range of the (25-12) index with the lowest ratio of known variable stars among the IRAS sources with colors similar to LPVs colors (Paper I, fig.4).

This gap has already been reported by Habing (1989) and interpreted as the separation between stars with and without a circumstellar envelope. The deficit is very marked in regions I and II of Habing’s IRAS color-color diagram 444- index is higher than ours by 1.56 mag., which correspond to non-variable and variable (mainly O-rich) stars, and slighter in region VII, which contains C-rich variable stars, in agreement with our results. Thus, stars with a thin circumstellar envelope (f) are clustered around 25-12=0 and almost all of them are O-rich LPVs. However, the kinematical study allowed us to assess the differences according to the initial mass of the stars.

The most massive stars can evolve to C-rich LPVs after a number of dredge-ups that enrich the external shells of the star in Carbon. In these stars the C/O ratio becomes larger than 1 and when it is around 1, the star is an S star. At the same time, strong changes take place in the circumstellar envelope, which becomes dominated by C-rich grains. The 25-12 index increases in conformity with the loop in the IRAS (25-12,60-25) color-color diagram predicted by Willems and de Jong (1988) and calculated by Chan and Kwok (1988). The areas occupied by O-rich and C-rich disk LPVs in figure 1 reflect this loop. Indeed the 25-12 index decreases from stars with a thin circumstellar envelope (f) to O-rich LPVs with a thick envelope (b) and increases again for C LPVs.

However, our luminosity calibrations suggest that the phenomenon does not strongly induce a difference in the K distributions of O-rich and C-rich disk LPVs. Moreover, the (K,IRAS) luminosity diagrams of figures 2 and 3 show that the loop is caused by both the decreasing 12 and 25 luminosities when the star becomes C-rich, but that this decrease is stronger in the 25 filter.

C-rich irregular and SRb stars mainly belong to the disk 1 population (Paper I, sect.6.4). They are mainly located at the upper end of the AGB. Therefore, the change from a more regular variable star (Mira) to a less regular one (L or SRb) may be associated with an increase in the non-linear behaviour of the massive pulsating LPVs due to interactions of the pulsation phenomenon and a very thick and dynamically unstable envelope.

### 2.2 Peculiar evolutive phases

The above global evolutive scenario along the AGB can be refined by examining stars which correspond to peculiar short-lived stages during which the star fundamentally changes (S or Tc stars), or to one of the most advanced stages of evolution (OH emitters).

#### 2.2.1 Tc stars

According to the models, the s-elements processed in a star can be brought to the surface by convective dredge-ups. When a sufficient quantity of s-elements has been brought to its surface, an O-rich star becomes an S star. S stars present a C/O ratio close to 1 and are generally considered as a transition phase between O-rich and C-rich stars.

Some S stars are enriched in Tc, indicating that this material was brought to the surface by recent (in the last few million years) dredge-ups, as modeled by Mowlavi (1998) in agreement with the results obtained by van Eck et al.(1998) who compared Tc and no-Tc S stars. Our list of Tc-rich S LPVs is taken from van Eck’s thesis (1999).

On another hand some O-rich LPVs (i.e. LPVs classified with an M spectral type) can also be enriched in Tc. Such peculiar stars were studied by Little et al. (1987) and they offer great potential as a possible constraint on the modelization of dredge-ups. Table 1 shows the individual estimated absolute magnitudes and the assigned group of these Tc stars.

We would like to highlight the correlation between location in the plane (12,25) of Tc LPVs and the limit between O-rich and C-rich regions, regardless of their S or M spectral type (see figure 4). The only exception is R And, which will be discussed later in this paper.

However no differences are found between Tc O-rich and Tc S LPVs. Tc O-rich LPVs have the same 12 and 25 luminosities as O-rich stars. They are probably LPVs enriched in Tc by a recent dredge-up, but not efficient enough either to make the C/O ratio close to 1 or to drastically alter the circumstellar envelope. Tc S LPVs are mainly assigned to disk population (10/12), which is not valid for Tc O-rich LPVs. This suggests that the dredge-up is more efficient in changing the C/O surface ratio up to 1 for more massive stars. No definitive conclusions can be reached owing to the scarcity of Tc LPVs in the sample.

It is also important to note that all these stars are more luminous than $``$ -6.5 mag in K, in agreement with Van Eck et al. (1998), the bolometric correction for this type of stars being around 3 mag. This confirms the predicted location of the first thermal pulse (Mowlavi, 1998) and the quite early operative third dredge-up on the TP-AGB (Van Eck, 1999).

Finally, some individual Tc stars in our sample have specific properties that require a specific discussion:

* NQ Pup and HR Peg are both assigned to the disk 1 population. Their faint K and IRAS luminosities (table 1) are questionable but they are at the limit between O-rich and C-rich areas, like the other Tc S LPVs (fig. 4). None of these stars show signs of dust emission (Jorissen and Knapp, 1998). They are probably among the least massive stars in the disk population.
* $`\chi `$ Cyg, for which Jorissen and Knapp (1998) find questionable IRAS fluxes, presents no peculiarities here. Indeed its 25-12 color index is close to zero but our estimated IRAS luminosities indicate the presence of an envelope. It is assigned to the disk 1 population and its location in the diagrams is compatible with a star of large initial mass in transit between O-rich and C-rich phases, after a recent dredge-up.
* R And can at first seem enigmatic. Assigned to the old disk population, it is the most luminous star our sample in 12 and 25 bands for its K luminosity and it has almost the smallest 25-12 index (see figure 4). Our classification is probabilistic and thus a few stars can be misclassified, but this does not seem to be the case for R And. Indeed, the observed 25-12 color index is -0.9, in agreement with that estimated from the IRAS absolute magnitudes (-0.8).

This star probably has a very thick envelope and in the diagrams it is close to the OH LPVs belonging to the old disk population (see figure 5). A mass close to the limit at which an O-rich LPVs can become either an OH emitter or a carbon star may account for its characteristics.

#### 2.2.2 R Hor and Tc enrichment

R Hor was found to be Tc enriched by Little et al. (1987) but not confirmed as such by Van Eck (1999) and it is the only Tc star assigned to the extended disk population. A Bayesian classification process can lead to some misclassification, but R Hor is at the limit of the O-rich LPVs area, close to two C-rich LPVs (RS Lup and V CrB) (see table 3). Thus, its Tc enrichment is questionable.

Another point is the way of enrichment in Tc and in C of such a deficient and low mass star. V CrB was reported as probably ”metal poor” by Hron et al. (1998) from ISO data. This agrees with our assignation to ED (table 3), which seems a priori doubtful for a Carbon star.

If this is confirmed, it would be an interesting constraint to evolutive models.

#### 2.2.3 non-Tc S-type stars

Some of the non-Tc S stars in our sample can be extrinsic S stars. These stars are not enriched in s-elements by internal nucleosynthesis and dredge-ups but by mass transfer from a more evolved companion. This is probably the case of X Aqr, BD Cam, V Cnc and SX Peg, for which a duplicity flag is given in the HIPPARCOS catalog. Except for X Aqr, they are in figure 4 at the lower limit in K of the old disk population with thin envelope (ODf), to which they are assigned. Moreover, the four of them have a K luminosity under -6.5 mag i.e. below the threshold of thermal pulses on AGB, confirming the Van Eck’s (1999) result.

There are three other non-Tc S stars in our sample. They are the least luminous in 12 and 25 bands and have the largest 25-12 index among stars with their K absolute magnitudes. AD Cyg is assigned to the bright disk and it is more luminous than all C stars. It is a massive star and we can assume that its evolution along the AGB is very rapid. On the other hand, in the (K,25-12), (K,12), and (K,25) planes, R Lyn and GZ Peg are close to the line on which AD Cyg and three extrinsic S stars assigned to disk 2 population with a thin envelope (D2f) (BD Cam, V Cnc, SX Peg) are located. These locations seem to confirm the non-Tc character of these stars, which are probably extrinsic S stars. However, given the difficulties in detecting duplicity, we failed to confirm this result.

Although the number of extrinsic S stars in our sample prevented us from reaching any definitive conclusion, these results suggest that an extrinsic S enrichment can accelerate the evolution along the AGB with formation of a circumstellar envelope closer to a carbon than to a silicated composition, before any enrichment by the star’s own nucleosysthesis and dredge-ups.

#### 2.2.4 OH stars

Some O-rich LPVs are maser emitters on the radio frequencies corresponding to OH bands, the masers being pumped by infrared photons.

These stars emit at the principal frequencies of the main transition (1665/67 MHz) and some also emit at 1612 MHz. The star is classified as OHII or OHI according to a stronger or a lower emission at the secondary frequency with respect to the main band. All of them are O-rich LPVs.

A systematic research of OH masers for stars in the solar neighbourhood has been carried out by Sivagnanam et al. (1989 and 1990), Lewis et al. (1995) and Szymczack et al. (1995).

Individual estimated absolute magnitudes and assigned groups of OH stars in our sample are given in table 2. Figure 5 shows their location in the distributions of the various absolute magnitudes. The distinction between OHI and OHII is not useful for our purposes because no difference was found between them in our analysis.

As expected, no OH star was found with a thin envelope, i.e. assigned to an f group. At a given K, they are the brightest in the 12 and 25 bands and all (except R Leo) have a 25-12 index corresponding to a thick circumstellar envelope. Their K luminosity distribution is the same as that of non-OH O-rich LPVs. However, our previous V calibration (Mennessier et al., 1999) indicates the extent to which the presence of a thick envelope induces an absorption in the visible range and confirms that after a new growth of the envelope the star becomes fainter and fainter in the visible range and turns into an OH-IR source. All these results agree with the current model of OH sources: a maser emission pumped by photons of an infrared thick envelope that depends on the mass of the star and the mass-loss ratio.

Finally, the kinematic assignation of OH emitters also provides information about these stars. Ten stars were assigned to the disk 1 population and they can thus be considered LPVs with massive progenitors. However we found that this population group is rather attractive for C-rich stars and repulsive for O-rich stars (Paper I). These ten OH emitters have a K luminosity brighter than about -8 mag. They are located in the same area as the Tc S LPVs in the (K,25-12), (K,12) and (K,25) planes. Thus such stars probably have a mass at the limit of the capability to be sufficiently enriched in Carbon by successive dredge-ups. As discussed in Sec. (4.2) some of them could be Hot Bottom Burning candidates.

The other OH sources of the sample, assigned to the disk 2 or old disk population, are less massive.

## 3 How to explain the gap for observed O-rich LPVs

As seen in Sect.2.1 the distribution of O-rich LPVs is clearly bimodal in the diagrams of figure 1, separating shell and no-shell stars. This gap may a priori be formed by several scenarios of the circumstellar shell formation, but one must not forget that the sample selection can also induce such an effect. Therefore, we must take both physics and sampling into account when examining the validity of the proposed hypotheses.

### 3.1 Several hypotheses

Our sample is composed of variable stars observed by HIPPARCOS, i.e., selected from criteria based on visual magnitude. As seen in Paper I, this selection effect is the most prominent in comparison with the other ones: availability of K magnitude and IRAS detection. A priori and with regard to the selection effects, we propose three possible explanations for the striking gap observed for O-rich LPVs in figures 1, 2 and 3:

1. During its evolution along the AGB, the star presents two stages of variability. Initially it is irregular or semi-regular of type b, then the pulsation stops and thereafter the star becomes variable for a second time as a semi-regular of type a or Mira and its circumstellar envelope grows.
2. The first thermal pulses induce an irregular variability of the star. Thereafter, the pulsation becomes more regular and a significant mass loss is the source of the circumstellar envelope formation. Owing to the composition of the silicated envelope, the 12 and 25 (more 25 than 12) luminosities suddenly and strongly increase. After this rapid phase the evolution quietly continues.
3. At the beginning of the thermal pulses the SRb or irregular variables slowly develop a circumstellar envelope that grows and becomes sufficiently thick to make the star undetectable in V magnitude. The envelope expands and becomes more transparent and thus the star becomes again visible in the visual magnitudes.

Obviously, reality may be more complex than these three proposed scenarios, and other explanations based on other results may be suggested. The following section is dedicated to the analysis of the three above proposed hypothesis.

### 3.2 Consequences of each hypothesis

First of all, The first hypothesis is not realistic. It has no convincing physical justification and no such behaviour is found in the models. We will thus discard it immediately.

The other two are plausible. Let us examine their coherence using Figure 6, which shows the distributions of the individual estimated K absolute magnitudes and V-K indices from the V and K luminosities estimated for each group. Figure 6 also distinguishes the spectral types and the envelope thickness. A small number of stars assigned to the disk 1 or extended disk population have a 25-12 index close to 0. They are marked in the figure 6 as ”simuf” type points.

In the case of the third hypothesis, when the circumstellar envelope grows more luminous in K, higher values of V-K are initially found; then V-K decreases when the envelope expands. The star crosses back over the limit of visibility, being more luminous in K and with a larger V-K index.

In the case of the second hypothesis, the change in the infrared fluxes is rapid and there is no reason for a corresponding drastic change in K luminosity, but the absorption in V band suddenly increases. Thus, the stars belonging to the b group may be only visible (i.e. in our sample) from a more luminous lower limit in K than that of the f group. Briefly, in the second hypothesis, from one side to the other of the gap, the star has the same K luminosity but the K distribution of the sample after the gap can be truncated for faint values because of an increase in V-K. In the third hypothesis the gap corresponds to a time for which the star is invisible. Thereafter it is brighter in K.

At this stage neither hypotheses 2 nor 3 can be rejected. The data available are too scarce to decide between them. The reality may be a mixture of both, but as long as these two hypotheses are considered, it is obvious that the observed gap results from a circumstellar phenomenon. On the contrary, a discontinuity in the stellar evolution along the AGB can be excluded.

### 3.3 Differences according to the galactic populations

The (K,12) and (K,25) diagrams (fig. 2 and 3) allow us to extend our analysis. They show the extent to which the evolution depends on the galactic population, i.e. on the initial mass and metallicity. We remark that the faint K luminosity truncation of the sample of stars with a thick envelope assigned to disk 2 population (D2b) is far lower than the one assigned to the old disk population (ODb). This difference between disk 2 and old disk populations favours the second hypothesis. Indeed such a difference is difficult to explain by an individual increase in K during the time of invisibility of the star assumed by the hypothesis 3. On the other hand, a less massive star has a less efficient mass loss with a formation of a less thick envelope and is thus less absorbed in the V band. Therefore, in the case of hypothesis 2, at a given K for a thin envelope star (f), old disk population LPVs have a larger probability than disk 2 population stars to be in our V-selected sample just after the circumstellar envelope formation.

The location of carbon stars also reinforces hypothesis 2. Indeed, a few C-rich LPVs have a 25-12 index close to zero but they cannot be stars just reaching the AGB. This is obvious when we examine the figure 1 except for the 4 carbon stars belonging to the disk 2 population fainter than -7 mag. However, if we consider these 4 stars as having evolved from O-rich LPVs belonging to the truncated faint part of the b distribution, everything is consistent.

## 4 Peculiar evolution of bright massive LPVs

The end of the evolution of massive LPVs on AGB induces complex phenomena and deserves a more detailed study, presented in this section.

### 4.1 Luminosity boundary of C stars

The luminosity boundary of carbon stars is an important constraint for the models. We find the brightest C stars around K=-9.2, independent of metallicity (fig.1), in agreement with the theoretical boundary: $`M_{bol}`$=-6.4 (Boothroyd et al.,1993).

However, in our individual estimates of absolute magnitude some O-rich LPVs are brighter in K than the brightest C stars (see table 3). This could be due to Hot Bottom Burning (HBB) that prevents carbon star formation. One of them, R Cen, is even brighter than the $`3\sigma `$ upper limit of the AGB population from our calibration (K=-9.4 for the disk 1 population, Paper I). The properties of this exceptional star will be a guide to investigate the massive bright LPVs.

### 4.2 R Cen and Hot Bottom Burning

R Cen has a very long period (more than 500 days) and its light curve presents a double maximum. It may have already changed from being a first overtone pulsator to a fundamental one, but this assumption does not agree with pulsation models (Ya’ari and Tuchmann, 1996) for a high luminosity star with a period around 500 days. Moreover, the hypothesis that R cen is a first overtone pulsator accounts for the peculiar shape of its light curve by a resonance phenomenon with the ratio P1/P3 close to 2 (Barthes, 1998). This author suggests that this peculiarly massive star (more than $`3_{\mathrm{}}`$ and maybe $`5_{\mathrm{}}`$) is a candidate star in the Hot Bottom Burning phase. Indeed this phenomenon stops the Carbon-enrichment of the surface. This agrees with the fact that this star is nearly the brightest in K,12 and 25 luminosities.

Two other candidates are proposed by Barthes (1998): T Cas and X Oph. In Paper I, we assign both these stars to the disk population (see table 3), in agreement with young and initially massive LPVs. Our estimated luminosities confirm T Cas as an HBB candidate. X Oph is more intriguing because its mass is probably at the lowest limit of carbon star formation (sect.2.2.4).

Another peculiarity of R Cen is the appearance of the silicate band of its ISO-SWS spectrum (Justtanont et al., 1998). Let us examine the O-rich LPVs assigned to the disk 1 population with an estimated high luminosity. V774 Sgr and SV Cas have IRAS-LRS spectra (IRAS Science Team, 1986) with a similar appearance as that of R Cen; they also have a relatively early spectral type (M5 and M6.5 respectively), and so they may also be HBB candidates. IM Cas and V539 Cas have a high luminosity, an early spectral type (M2) and their IRAS-LRS spectra are close to that of R Cen one in the same way as T Cas and X Oph. Another possible candidate could be Y Vel, which has a late spectral type LPV (M8-M9.5).

At least YZ Per has an IRAS-LRS spectrum close to that of R Cen, an early spectral type (M1-M3), but it is classified as a supergiant of class Iab and so it may be at the most advanced end of the AGB or may be a post-AGB.

IRAS luminosities and 25-12 indices of V4028 Sgr and V613 Mon indicate that they probably are in the first stages on the AGB. This is confirmed by the IRAS-LRS spectrum of V4028 Sgr in which no SiO feature is present. Unfortunately no IRAS-LRS spectrum of V613 Mon is available.

### 4.3 R Cen and He-shell flash

Another interesting property of R Cen was studied by Hawkins et al. (2001) in a recent paper. They present evidence of a steadily decreasing period of R Cen from 550 to 505 days during the last 50 years. They suggest that it is caused by a He-shell flash, in a similar way to R Hya, R Aql, W Dra and T UMi (Wood and Zarro, 1981).

W Dra and T UMi have no available HIPPARCOS data and so we could not estimate their luminosities. R Aql is an OH emitter and a remark similar to X Oph (sect.4.2) applies.

Wood and Zarro (1981) deduce a value between -5.3 and -5.5 mag. for the bolometric luminosity of R Hya, in agreement with our estimation (K=-8.58). They also find that the time scale for the period change of R Hya corresponds to a longer time after the maximum luminosity of the He-shell flash than that of R Aql. This could explain the Tc enrichment of R Hya and its M6-M9S spectral type.

The period change for R Cen is steeper than for R Hya and thus Hawkins et al. (2001) give two possible explanations: either R Cen is in a stage right after the beginning of the flash, with a total mass less than 2-3 $`_{\mathrm{}}`$ or it is in a stage right after where the luminosity of the flash reaches the stellar surface with a much larger range of allowed stellar mass. We find that R Cen is the most K luminous LPV but its 25-12 index is this of an S star, at the limit between O and C-rich LPVs, and is assigned to BD, the group of the most massive stars. Therefore, our results strongly favor the second possibility: R Cen is in a stage right after the luminosity of the flash reaches the stellar surface.

Furthermore the He-shell flash enhances the efficiency of the third dredge-up (Herwig, 2000), that can explain the very peculiar location, compared to the one of that HBB candidates, of R Cen in the diagram (K,25-12). This so luminous O-rich LPV might become a carbon star exceptionally brighter than the usual luminosity limit accepted for these stars. A few such luminous carbon stars exist in the Magellanic Clouds as observed by van Loon et al. (1999b) and modeled by Frost et al. (1998).

## 5 Conclusion

Our results confirm that the AGB evolution depends on the initial mass of the progenitor on the main sequence. The study of LPVs with peculiar properties, often associated with transition states in the stellar evolution, elucidates some points of the very complex evolution along the AGB. The simultaneous study of the behaviour of the circumstellar envelope provides further information on the evolutive state of the stars along the AGB. However, this study is mainly statistical and so results for individual stars can be erroneous because the confidence level of a probabilistic discrimination can never reach 100%.

The proposed evolutive scenario, schematically represented in figure 7, is:

* At the beginning of the variability phase, stars belonging to the disk 2 or old disk population (i.e., with a not too large initial mass $`_{ms}`$) are irregular L or semi-regular SRb O-rich variables. They begin to slowly produce an envelope. Thereafter the envelope expands, and the IRAS luminosities of the star rapidly grow brighter. They become O-rich SRa or Mira. Depending on smaller or greater $`_{ms}`$, they can evolve either to OH emitters and finally OH-IR sources or, for the more massive, to be enriched in s elements and then in carbon by successive dredge-ups and finally become a C-rich Mira. The least massive stars leave the AGB with no special transformation of their surface abundance.
* The disk 1 and bright disk population LPVs seem to very rapidly build a bright expanding envelope. They can also evolve to OH or C-rich stars. Although this population is not attractive for O-rich LPVs, a tenth of OH Mira belong to it. They are probably not massive enough to be sufficiently Carbon enriched. A few may be HBB stars.

If the mass of the star is high enough, after a number of dredge-ups the external shells of the star can be enriched in Carbon. The C/O ratio becomes larger than 1. When C/O is around 1, the star is an S star. At the same time, strong changes take place in the circumstellar envelope, which becomes dominated by carbonated grains, and the 25-12 index increases in conformity with the loop drawn in the IRAS color-color diagram, as predicted by Willems and de Jong (1988) and calculated by Chan and Kwok (1988). Our luminosity calibrations in 12 and 25 clearly show that the star becomes fainter in both luminosities but more in 25 than in 12. The C-rich irregular and SRb stars seem to be the most evolved and massive .

The study of LPVs enriched in Tc confirms that they are at different stages along the AGB but after a recent dredge-up. It allows us to confirm the location of the first dredge-up at $`M_{bol}=3.5`$ and the quite early operative third dredge-up on the TP-AGB

The no-Tc S-type LPVs (except R And), are faint in K, 12 and 25, and they are confirmed as extrinsic S stars enriched not by their own nucleosynthesis but by mass exchange from a more evolved companion. The extrinsic enrichment in s-elements may accelerate the evolution along the AGB and lead to the formation of an envelope closer to being carbonated than silicated before any intrinsic enrichment by successive dredge-ups.

The examination of the brightest LPVs allows us to propose a list of stars with peculiar spectral, envelope and luminosity properties that may be Hot Bottom Burning candidates. The most luminous of them, R Cen, a star in a He-shell flash, could become, before leaving AGB, a C-rich LPV brighter than the usual luminosity limit of carbon stars.

###### Acknowledgements.

This study was supported by the PICASSO program PICS 348 and by the CICYT under contract ESP97-1803 and AYA2000-0937. We thank N.Mowlavi and R.Alvarez for constructive remarks and A.Gomez and S.Van Eck for fruitful discussions of our preliminary results.


text:
# THE QCD PHASE DIAGRAM, EQUATION OF STATE, AND HEAVY ION COLLISIONS

## 1 Introduction: the beginning of our field

Since I happen to present the last talk at this conference, let me start with some historic remarks, on the early days of our field in general and the role of Helmut Satz in particular. I know Helmut longer than the topic of conference, “Statistical QCD”, existed: we first met I think in 1975 in Dubna, a year after my Ph.D.111 Very characteristically, I could not find any material from that time, by Helmut had made and kept very nice photos: thanks Helmut once again.. Already then I have been stronhly influenced by his general style, which I would characterize as “ forceful but kind”. (At this meeting he has demonstrated the same qualities once again, as the chairman of the last session, saving myself from a cascade of difficult questions after this talk.)

Speaking of our field, let me define it as the intercept of (i) the theory of hot/dense matter $`different`$ from the usual hadronic matter (such as nuclear matter); with (ii) the phenomenology of high energy heavy ion collisions222There are also phenomenology of neutron stars and cosmological applications: but they are still struggling to be in the mainstream. . Of course the first use of thermodynamics for hadronic collisions were suggested 50 years ago by Fermi . Soon after Landau  argued that hydrodynamics should also be applicable, provided the system is macroscopically large, its size $`L`$ is much larger than a micro scale $`l`$, the mean free path. (Below I will return to the fundamental question of our field, whether the system created in heavy ion collisions does or does not satisfy this criterium. ) When the first hadronic resonance, $`\mathrm{\Delta }`$, has just been discovered, Landau and S.Z.Belenkij  promtly introduced the “resonance gas”, supporteed by the Beth-Ulenbeck result for the second virial coefficient. Hagedorn  in 1960’s developed this idea into dual bootstrap approach for resonances, and introduced his famous limited T. As it was understood later, it is indeed a maximal T in a hadronic phase in which there is confinement and QCD strings. It was very important that from the start Hagedorn and others made practical applications of the statistical model to various hadronic reactions333I also studied some of them as part of my Ph.D. in early 1970’s, and concluded that for reactions like low energy $`\overline{p}pn\pi `$ the thermodynamics indeed works remarcably well, provided (i) one uses microcanonical approach for strangeness etc; (ii) the freeze-out happens at fixed desnity, not volume. Both of them have surfaced now again..

Of course in the early 70’s, when QCD has been discovered, its ideas were soon applied to hot/dense matter. Based on asymptotic freedom, Collins and Perry  suggested that the high T and/or density matter should be close to the ideal gas. The first perturbative corrections were evaluated . The part of gluonic polarization tensor due to high T  (unlike that due to virtual gluonic loops) $`screens`$ the charge: thus the name of this new phase, Quark-Gluon Plasma, QGP. Its excitations are quasiparticles similar to “plasmons” etc of the usual plasma. Furthermore, it was found in  that static magnetic field is not screened: thus the infrared divergences and other non-perturbative phenomena survive in the magnetic sector. First resummations of (what was later called) Hot Thermal Loops into a plasmon term have also been done  by the end of 1970’s. (Its consistent application to many other problems have been worked out by Braaten, Pisarski and others a decade later.) My other paper  addressed such practical questions as new flavor, photon and dilepton production from QGP, as well as the first take on the $`J/\psi `$ suppression444 Of course, the famous 1986 paper by Matsui and Satz have superseeded it, by showing that in sufficiently hot QGP the $`J/\psi `$ is not even bound. However later, Satz, Kharzeev and others have also worked out gluonic excitation to continuum., by gluon excitation similar to photoeffect.

By the end of 70’s Helmut was the first to realize that in order for this field to be shaped one has to take it all together: he called the first Quark Matter conference - the famous Bielefeld meeting of 1980 (soon reinforced by the next one in 1982) - which have defined the field and created our community.

Since at the time I still was, so to say, in a confined phase, I could not attend these meetings. As I also felt that something should be done at that moment, I wrote the first review article  in which available theory results were combined with potential applications to high energy collisions.

## 2 The QCD phase diagram, version 2001

Let me start with general remarks about the phases of QCD. Basically, starting from the hadronic phase there are three directions to go: (i) High T leading to QGP, the perturbative phase without any condensates. (ii) High density direction, which leads us to very rich world dominated by quark pairing providing a set of Color Superconducting phases, with broken color group, sometimes with broken chiral symmetry or even broken parity. (iiI) Increasing number of light quarks $`N_f`$ which brings another strange conformal world, without condensates but with the infrared fixed point. Very few studies have been done, on the lattice  and with instantons (see ): both have indicated that the critical $`N_f`$ can be as low as 7 or 5.

All this large variety of phases (including of course the hadronic phase we live in) and their boundaries can be understood with remarcably small set of dynamical tools. Basically, if one is interested in asymptotically large $`T,\mu `$, the one-gluon exchange should be used. If not, the instanton-induced t’Hooft Lagrangian is enough. It generates attraction in $`three`$ different channels: (i) quark-antiquark, leading to chiral symmetry breaking; (ii) quark-quark channel leading to color superconductivity; and (iii) attraction between instanton and anti-instanton, mediated by light quarks, which leads to their pairing in QGP and conformal phase. The competition of these three attractions defines the phase boundaries.

Let me now make a quick update on recent news, starting with the T direction. Important work by the Bielefeld group (see Laermann, this proceedings) have fixed the critical mass of the quark, in the case when it is the same for 3 flavors. Its value indicate that in QCD we would nearly certainly have a cross-over, not the first order transition.

Addressing the fate of this cross-over line along the $`\mu `$ direction, Fodor and Katz  have found the first numerical evidences that the location of the critical endpoint E is at $`T160MeV,\mu _B700MeV`$, see fig.1(a).

Going further to the high density we find intense theoretical activity. The main news is the “stress” which is provided by the non-zero strange quark mass on the Color-Flavor-Locked (CFL) phase leads to spontaneous breaking of the $`Pparity`$, with the non-zero kaon condensate, as first shown by Bedaque and Schafer . More details on the resulting phase diagram in the plane of chemical potentials for baryon and electric charge has been provided by Kaplan ad Reddy : the most surprising feature is that the recovery of pure CFL phase happens only at extremely high density, at $`\mu _b`$ of the order of millions of GeV. (One will find details on it in T.Schafer’s talk in this proceedings.)

The second time in this field there were two papers from the Stony Brook and the (now) MIT teams, submitted to hep-ph on the same day555The first time, in 1998, those were papers by Alford,Rajagopal and Wilczek, and Rapp,Schafer, Shuryak and Velkovky, which have revived this field. : both are the first attempts to “try the ice” by looking into possible crystalline phases of quark matter. This time however the content of the papers are rather different. Rapp, Zahed and myself  have looked at frozen $`\overline{q}q`$ (or sigma) field with non-zero momentum: a phenomenon similar to the so called Pierls instability in 1d and Overhauser spin waves in 2d. We found that given very strong pairing force, it may well compete with the 2-flavor Color Superconductivity at $`\mu _b1200MeV`$.

Alford, Bowers and Rajagopal  have considered a different crystal, in which $`qq`$ (or diquark) condensate has the non-zero momentum: it is similar to the so called LOFF phase proposed (but not observed yet) for ordinary superconductors. Its tentative place is a narrow region along the border between 2- and 3-flavor-like superconducting phases.

There are multiple works on unusual properties of excitations. Let me single out two nice papers by Son, Stephanov and Zhitnitsky  who have addressed the $`\eta ^{}`$ and instantons at very high $`\mu `$. They have shown this to be the first example of relatively simple “instanton liquid”, in this case a 4-d dilute Coulomb plasma with the $`\eta ^{}`$ being the exchange field which gets massive due to the Debye mechanism. They have also shown that in this phase there can exist metastable domain walls made of the $`\eta ^{}`$ field: maybe bubbles made of such membranes can ocasionally be produced in heavy ion collisions.

## 3 Heavy ion collisions

### 3.1  Physics of the freeze-out

As shown in several talks at this conference, statistical description of particle composition which worked well before also does so at RHIC. The only new number to know is $`\mu _b45MeV`$: the resulting predictions agree with measured particle ratios quite well.

However, Does the success of statistical description imply that we deal with macrosopically large systems? Not really: the same thermal models provide nearly equally good description of hadronic yields from very low energy reactions like $`\overline{p}p`$ annihilation at rest to high energy $`e^+e^{}`$ annihilation into hadrons. In the latter case we are quite sure the system is rather dilute: and thus excellent predictions of the thermal model here remains (a long standing) puzzle.

Fitting the matter composition from particular data set, one gets a point at the $`T\mu _b`$ diagram. What kind of pattern one should eventually see when many such points are collected? Cleymans and Redlich  have suggested a smooth chemical freeze-out line at $`T\mu _b`$ plane: they have empirically shown that it is nearly a semi-circle approximately correspondnf to energy per particle E/N about 1 GeV. However I would suggest a different picture (see Fig. 1(a)), namely two crossing lines, (i) the QGP phase boundary; and (ii) chemical freeze-out line defined by hadronic rates. Their nature is quite different: the first is a place of rapid changes in thermodynamics, the second is of kinetic nature and depends on things like expansion rate, and is in principle different for different nuclei and impact parameters. Although at the phase diagram it looks like two lines are nearly parallel and their crossing would be difficult to detect, it looks more promising in other observables. Strangeness content is one of them: see the $`K^+/\pi ^+`$ ratio in Fig.1(b), in which the change of behavior is really striking. My prediction is that instead of a round maximum shown (corresponding to this cemi-circle), we should see instead a peak sue to the crossing of two lines666In a particular model similar behavior but with $`two`$ discontinuities has been demonstrated previously by M.Gazdzicki et al, hep-ph/0006236. . Taking more data around the maximum, which we may call “the strangest point” marked S in Fig.1(a) is therefore very interesting and directly linked to the QGP phase boundary.

What happens after chemical freeze-out is still hotly debated. As emphasized by Rafelski, in spite of baryon-rich environment at SPS, the anti-hyperon production is not strongly suppressed by annihilation, and their spectra show the same shape as hyperon’s, even a small $`p_t`$. The same is true for $`\overline{p}`$ as well. Logically speaking, there are two options: (i) either there is no interaction after chemical freeze-out (as Rafelski argued); or (ii) there exist back reactions, compensating for the annihilated anti-baryons. Rapp and myself as well as C.Greiner  have shown that (contrary to disbelief of many) the rates of those are quite sufficient to nearly completely compensate the annihilation. The key element here is the well pion overpopulation phenomenon: after chemical equilibration point (at which $`\mu _\pi `$ is set to zero), the number of pions is conserved while T goes down: it means that $`\mu _\pi `$ grows, reaching about 70 MeV. Since annihilation $`\overline{N}Nn\pi `$ include $`n6`$ pions, the inverse rate gets a big help from $`exp(n\mu _\pi /T)`$ factor.

“Life after chemical freeze-out” has been recently studied by Derek Teaney , as part of hydro studies to be discussed below. Incorporating non-zero $`\mu `$’s for $`all`$ species, he calculated the thermodynamics of the resulting chemically non-equilibrium resonance gas. (As above for pions, particle numbers per entropy are kept the same as at the chemical freeze-out point.) It turns out $`p(ϵ)`$ (and thus hydro) hardly change, but $`ϵ(T)`$ (and thus spectra) did changed quite a lot. Remarkably, new EoS of the resonance gas seem to match that of RQMD: if it is used for description of the hadronic phase, the results no longer depend on where transition from hydro to RQMD takes place.

### 3.2  Heavy ion collisions: flows and EoS

According to Landau, a decisive test of the macroscopic behavior is $`hydrodynamical`$ flows. Is this criterium satisfied by elementary pp or $`e^+e^{}`$ collisions? With appearence of the first multiparticle production data from accelerators in 1970’s, the answer seemed affirmative at first ,, but more accurate $`\pi ,K,p`$ spectra from ISR had shown  that in this case there is no sign of transverse expansion777 It has been argued in  that the vacuum pressure may balance transverse pressure: the suggested picture resembled rather a string-like model than a hydro explosion. of matter. Beccatini at this conference have shown fits to more modern high energy data, which indicate something like transverse flow, but with the velocity only $`v_t0.2`$ or so, much less than hydro predicts (and the RHIC data show), $`v_t0.6`$.

Early BEVALAC data have displayed collective phenomena such as directed flow and “squeeze-out”, and hydro description had been attempted . Eventually however, it has been also concluded that at such energies ($`E1AGeV`$) the NN mean free path $`l_{m.f.p.}1.5fm`$ is not small enough compared to nuclear size $`L6fm`$ to justify it. Hadronic cascade models took the lead from that time on, and (such as event generators RQMD we use) have provided good description of AGS and SPS data. At AGS and even more so at SPS, much stronger collective expansion effects have been observed. At SPS the mean transverse velocity $`v_t`$ reached by matter is about 1/2. Although it has been successfully described hydrodynamically , these works did not shed much light at the EoS of very dense matter becauseat AGS/SPS conditions most of the acceleration happens at late times, in hadronic matter driven by relativistic pions. So, its hydro description is just “dual” to hadronic cascades.

The decisive shift occured when $`noncentral`$ collisions at high energies have been studied experimentally at SPS and RHIC, and theoretically, by our group , as well as by U.Heinz and collaborators . Based on these works and RHIC data, we can now see that we are finally approaching the macrosopic regime. Finally, we got a Bang, not fizzle.

I would concetrate here on our last paper from the set , in which systematic study of radial and elliptic flow has been made, with detailed predictions of their energy, centrality and $`p_t`$ dependence as a function of EoS (the $`only`$ input for hydro). Our Hydro-to-Hadrons (H2H) model uses hydro in QGP and “mixed” phases, but switch to hadronic cascade (RQMD) in the hadronic phase. Thus, in contrast to others, we have differential freeze-out of different species, which is very important aspect of the calculation. Its comparison with large set of SPS and RHIC data looks to me very convincing: the model describes radial and elliptic flows in great details. Of course, only few examples can be given here: I selected 2 cases in which the model was not anticipated to work, and surprized us.

One is “crossing” of $`\pi ^{}`$ and $`\overline{p}`$ spectra at $`p_T2.0\text{GeV}`$ shown in Fig.2. As shown in the l.h.s., even schematic hydro/thermal model with appropriate transverse velocity $`v_t0.6`$ explains it. The r.h.s. shows our predictions (both data and model have absolute normalizations: no free parameters). What is unusual about it is that hydro/thermal description seem to work even at the largest measured $`p_t`$: so far, no power-like tail due to hard processes is seen888One more argument that it is not jet fragmentaion of any kind is this very point that they would lead to the $`\overline{p}/\pi ^{}`$ ratio much less than 1..

Let me now jump to Fig. 3(a) which shows the impact parameter dependence of elliptic flow. First note that at SPS the difference between theory and data is substantial, especially at more peripheral collisions. However, this difference completely disappears999If STAR data were compared with pure hydro results, e.g. reported by U.Heinz et al, they are also below. However, “viscosity” of hadronic matter at freeze-out, taken care of by RQMD in our model, naturally explains this difference. at RHIC, where even very peripheral collisions demonstrate large elliptic flow. Another important feature of elliptic flow, also well reproduced by hydro Fig. 3(b), is its strong growth with the transverse momentum.

Last but not least: combining all these hydro results, we were able to show that the whole body of data (i) cannot be described by EoS $`without`$ the QCD phase transition; and that (ii) it is best described by EoS in which the jump in energy density (“latent heat”) is about $`\mathrm{\Delta }ϵ800MeV/fm^3`$, or $`\mathrm{\Delta }ϵ/T_c810`$. This happen to be in excellent agreement with the lattice results, which the Beilefeld group and others have predicted for years.

## 4  How QGP happened to be produced so quickly at RHIC?

Heavy ion physics entered a new era when Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) at Brookhaven National Laboratory have taken first data in summer 2000. These data (see e.g. ) have shown that heavy ions collisions (AA) at highest energies significantly differ $`both`$ from the hh collisions and the AA collisions at lower (SPS/AGS) energies. Already the very first multiplicity measurements by PHOBOS collaboration have shown that particle production per participant nucleon is no longer constant, as was the case at lower (SPS/AGS) energies, but grows more rapidly. Long-anticipated semi-hard processes have shown up.

If they are perturbative “mini-jets”, cut at scale $`p_t>1.52GeV`$, the predicted mini-jet multiplicity is expected to be $`dN_g/dy200`$ for central AuAu collisions at $`\sqrt{s}=130AGeV`$. However, other RHIC data have provided serious arguments against the mini-jet scenario. Those are: (i) Strong collective phenomena such as flows desribed above (ii) Jet quenching: Spectra of hadrons at large $`p_t`$, especially the $`\pi ^0`$ spectra from PHENIX, agree well with HIJING for peripheral collisions, but show much smaller yields for central ones. Counting from expected Cronin effect (which in pA collisions is about factor 2) we see a suppression of about order of magnitude. It has not been the case at SPS and it can only happen if the outgoing high-$`p_t`$ jets propagate through dense matter, with $`dn_g/dy1000`$. (iii) Furthermore, this estimate is also supported by STAR data on elliptic asymmetry parameter $`v_2(p_t)`$ at large transverse momenta $`p_t>2GeV`$, see . Note also that the result is consistent with the $`maximal`$ possible value evaluated from the final entropy at freeze-out, $`(dN/dy)_\pi 1000`$.

In summary, these data are quite consistent with the Quark-Gluon Plasma (QGP) (or Little Bang) scenario in which entropy is produced promptly and subsequent expansion is close to adiabatic expansion of equilibrated hot medium.

How this happened remains an outstanding question. One option is significant reduction of the pQCD cut-off relative to $`1.52GeV`$ expected from pp. The other is the subject of the next section.

## 5 The instanton/sphaleron mechanism of entropy production at RHIC

In spite of significant progress related to instanton-induced effects in QCD vacuum and hadrons (see e.g. review ), very little has so far been made toward understanding high energy processes. This is mostly because it is difficult to translate many of our non-perturbative tools to Minkowski space.

The non-perturbative fields in the QCD vacuum (and inside hadrons) are not some shapeless objects, with typical size $`1fm^11/\mathrm{\Lambda }_{QCD}`$, as was assumed in the 70’s. Instead it is concentrated in $`smallsize`$ instantons, with size $`\rho 1/3fm`$, which also generate “constituent quarks” of similar size. When hadrons are boosted to high energies, they become thin disks: and substructure just mentioned makes their partons to be correlated in the transverse plane. Furthermore, what is a part of hadronic wave function in one reference frame, becomes the parton-parton interaction in another. This consideration alone implies importance of the instanton-induced high energy scattering.

We cannot describe here long history of the so called soft pomeron, starting from Pomeranchuck and Gribov in 1960’s. Phenomenologically it is still in very good shape. where a supercritical pole with the intercept $`\mathrm{\Delta }0.08`$. Perturbative BFKL gluon ladder gives the pQCD version of high energy behavior, with a supercritical pole with the intercept $`\mathrm{\Delta }1/2`$: it seem to work for hard processes, with large $`Q`$.

For long time people have constructed multi-peripheral models with ladders made of hadrons. Recent story started with Kharzeev and Levin who kept t-channel gluons but tried to substitute the gluonic “rungs” of the BFKL ladder by those with a pair of pions, or sigma meson, to improve it. They used the gg-$`\pi \pi `$ non-perturbative vertices known from the low energy theorem. Their estimated value for $`\mathrm{\Delta }`$ was close to $`\mathrm{\Delta }_{phen}`$. Introducing $`instantons`$ into the problem, I re-analyzed  the contribution of the colorless scalar channel generated by operator $`G_{\mu \nu }^2`$, using the gg-$`\pi \pi `$ and gg$`scalarglueball`$ couplings determined previously from the calculation of appropriate Euclidean correlators, see . The result turns out to reduce thos of the KL paper, with $`\mathrm{\Delta }0.05`$ only, and pions and glueball contributions being roughly equal.

The next important step has been done by two groups, Kharzeev, Kovchegov and Levin  and M.Nowak, I. Zahed and myself . These works considered inelastic processes, with multi-gluon production. Basically, instead of the glueball peak at $`M1.7GeV`$ in the cross section $`\sigma _{ggany}(s)`$ in the colorless scalar channel, these authors argue that a particular $`colored`$ object is produced, the $`sphaleron`$. The cross section as a function of the mass is also believed to have a peak, around 2.5-3 GeV, with a width given by $`classical`$ instability of this configuration. So, in a way, it is a resonance, although not a hadron due to non-zero color.

Hard processes, involving scales $`Q^2>>Q_0^21GeV^2`$ are adequately described by pQCD: the result of parton collisions is their re-scattering, see fig.4(a). The multiple production of N partons is suppressed in pQCD by extra powers of $`\alpha _s(Q^2)`$. It is however not true at the $`semihard`$ scale $`Q^2Q_0^2`$ because here non-perturbative effects $`exp[const/\alpha _s(Q_0^2)]`$ become comparable or dominant. Specifically for instantons, the so called instanton diluteness parameter101010For comparison, in electroweak theory it is about $`10^{80}`$ or so. $`(n\rho ^4)(1/3)^40.01`$, were n (taken from the phenomenology and/or lattice studies ) is the resulting instanton density in Euclidean space-time, including all interactions and condensates in the vacuum. Compared to $`(\alpha _s(Q_0)/\pi )^n`$ one may expect it to dominate over pQCD for processes in the order $`n>2`$. And the non-perturbative phenomena like instanton-induced production indeed are multi-gluon ones, see fig.4(b).

Note that not necessarily one pair of gluons collides (the figure depict 3\*3 as an example), also several gluons are produced in one act. This happens because of the large field strength of the instanton $`A_\mu ^{inst}1/g`$, which makes processes with any number of gluons of the same orders in g.

Furthermore, the intermediate stage of the process (shown by the horizontal dashed lines) indicate $`coherence`$ of the outgoing gluons: they are first produce in the form of specific gluomagnetic field configuration, the turning points, which I study right now .

Before we outline results of the specific calculations, let me emphasize the basic quantum mechanics of the process (see the right-hand side of Fig.1). Instantons are classical solutions describing tunneling from one classical vacuum (in which $`G_{\mu \nu }=0`$ and the $`A_\mu `$ is pure gauge) to another: naturally the energy is zero on it. However if during tunneling some energy is deposited into classical field, from two or more colliding gluons, after the system appears from under the barrier it may propagate in real time. Schematic example of that is shown in the right hand side of fig.4 for three cases, with deposited energy ranging from zero (the original instanton) to that of the barrier maximum.

The top point is known as $`sphaleron`$111111Which means “ready to fall” in Greek. configuration , first found in the electroweak theory. Intensive studies of the instanton-induced processes also were done in this context in early 1990’s, driven basically by possible observability of baryon number violating processes in electroweak theory. The so called “holy grail function” showed that processes with multiple quanta production indeed lead to growing cross section, reaching its maximum at the sphaleron mass and then decreasing. However, since in electroweak theory the maximal cross section has been found to be still very far from observability, the interest to this direction have mostly disappeared around 1993 or so.

The results obtained so far are in reasonable agreement with data, and explain few qualitative points: (i) The pomeron intercept is small ($`\mathrm{\Delta }_{phen}0.08`$ because it is proportional the $`first`$ power of the instanton diluteness parameter $`(n\rho ^4)`$. (ii) This mechanism also explains small size of the Pomeron, (as seen e.g. from the Pomeron slope $`\alpha ^{}(0)1/(2GeV)^2`$): the reason is small instanton size. (iii) Byproduct: at classical level no odderon appears. This is related to non-trivial property of instantons/sphalerons: they are always in some SU(2) subgroup of SU(3); and in SU(2) there is no real distinction between quark and anti-quark.

In my recent paper  it was suggested that the instanton/sphaleron mechanism may be a way toward the solution of this “early entropy” puzzle. In a way, high entropy may come directly from “sublimation” of strong vacuum gluon fields and of the vacuum quark condensate.

Assuming it to be the dominant process behind the logarithmic growth of the pp cross section, I estimated the probability of the sphaleron production directly from data. Although the cross section of prompt production is surprisingly small in mean parton-parton collision, two orders of magnitude below geometric cross section $`\pi \rho ^2`$, the total number of parton-parton collisions in $`central`$ AA collision is so huge that the number of “promptly-produced objects” (mini-jet pairs or sphalerons) in AA collisions per unit rapidity is estimated  $`\frac{dN_{prompt}}{dy}100`$.

Although this number is similar to estimated mini-jet production events, this scenario provides significantly larger amount of the entropy produced. Indeed, the mini-jets are just plane waves: they are classically stable and weakly interacting. The sphalerons are kind of resonances existing already at the classical level. They explode into spherical expanding shells of strong field, which rapidly sweep the whole volume and may convert it into Quark-Gluon Plasma121212In heavy ion case partons produced do not hadronize immediately, as is the case for hh collisions. Each QCD “turning point” cluster decays into several gluons plus (with some probablity) up to the whole $`\overline{u}u\overline{d}d\overline{s}s`$ set of quarks . Key signature of these decays may then be a deviation from the “hot glue scenario”: $`\overline{u}u\overline{d}d\overline{s}s`$ should be there much earlier than it is possible due to pQCD effects.

## 6 Conclusions

Let me try to summarize the status of our field, which is a 21-year old youngster, full of life and experimentation, open to whatever those will bring. This makes this field rather unique among other fields in high energy and nuclear physics. Helmut and other “old-timers” have all reasons to be proud of it. In particular:
(i) We finally have excellent dedicated machine, RHIC, and look forward for other observables and for the LHC era for a decade to come.
(ii) The field is growing well. It has enough open questions to provide challenges/ attract many 1-st rate young theorists.
(iii) Our understanding of the QCD phase diagram has grown enormously. All kind of symmetries – color, flavor,translations and even parity – can be broken under appropriate conditions.
(iv) Amazingly, the Optimists were right: only factor 2 in multiplicity (from SPS to RHIC) made a lot of difference! It is a Bang, not a (so often predicted) fizzle. And yes, we do see the “QGP push”. We seem to finally approach the macroscopic limit: hydro works, jets are quenched, ellipticity is very large, even at large $`p_t`$. The EoS is being determined. Remarkably, it seem to confirm $`quantitatively`$ the values of $`T_cand\mathrm{\Delta }ϵ`$ what lattice had predicted all along.
Outlook: Yes, there are many questions left open: but those are being addressed as we speak. One outstanding question discussed above is how so large entropy has been generated so quickly. The other problem I did not mentioned is what exactly is the shape of the freezeout surface, in view of current HBT data.