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# Predicting critical crashes? A new restriction for the free variables.

## 1 Introduction

Several authors have noticed the signature of log-periodic oscillations prior to large stock market crashes , , . Unfortunately good fits of the corresponding equation to stock market prices are also observed in quiet times. To refine the method several approaches have been suggested:

* Logarithmic Divergence: Regard the limit where the critical exponent $`\beta `$ converges to 0.
* Universality: Define typical ranges for the free parameters, by observing the best fit for historic crashes.

We suggest a new approach. From the observation that the hazard-rate in  has to be a positive number, we get an inequality among the free variables of the equation for stock-market prices.

Checking 88 years of Dow-Jones-Data for best fits, we find that $`25\%`$ of those that satisfy our inequality, occur less than one year before a crash. We compare this with other methods of crash prediction, i.p. the universality method of Johansen et al., which followed by a crash only in $`9\%`$ of the cases.

Combining the two approaches we obtain a method whose predictions are followed by crashes in $`54\%`$ of the cases.

## 2 The hazard rate

In  Johansen et al suggest, that during a speculative bubble the crash hazard rate $`h(t)`$, i.e, the probability per unit time that the crash will happen in the next instant if it has not happened yet, can be modeled by by

$$h(t)B_0(t_ct)^\alpha +B_1(t_ct)^\alpha \mathrm{cos}(\omega \mathrm{log}(t_ct)+\psi ).$$

By assuming that the evolution of the price during a speculative bubble satisfies the martingale (no free lunch) condition, they obtain a differential equation for the price $`p(t)`$ whose solution is

$$\mathrm{log}\left(\frac{p(t)}{p(t_0)}\right)=\kappa _{t_0}^th(t^{})𝑑t^{}$$

before the crash. Here $`\kappa `$ denotes the expected size of the crash.

This implies that the evolution of the logarithm of the price before the crash and before the critical date $`t_c`$ is given by:

$$()\mathrm{log}(p(t))p_c\frac{\kappa }{\beta }B_0(t_ct)^\beta \frac{\kappa }{\sqrt{\beta ^2+\omega ^2}}B_1(t_ct)^\beta \mathrm{cos}(\omega \mathrm{log}(t_ct)+\varphi )$$

With $`\beta =1\alpha `$, $`p_c`$ the price at the critical date, and $`\varphi `$ a different phase constant.

Now the hazard rate is a probability and therefore positive. This leads to a necessary condition:

$`0`$ $`h(t)`$
$``$ $`0`$ $`B_0(t_ct)^\alpha +B_1(t_ct)^\alpha \mathrm{cos}(\omega \mathrm{log}(t_ct)+\psi )`$
$``$ $`0`$ $`B_0+B_1\mathrm{cos}(\omega \mathrm{log}(t_ct)+\psi )`$
since $`t<t_c`$. At some times near the critical date $`\mathrm{cos}(\omega \mathrm{log}(t_ct)+\psi )`$ takes on the values $`1`$ and $`1`$. This implies the necessary conditions

$$0B_0\pm B_1|B_1|B_0.$$

On the other hand these conditions are also sufficient for $`h(t)0`$ since $`\mathrm{cos}(\omega \mathrm{log}(t_ct)+\psi )`$ is always between $`1`$ and $`1`$.

To summarize, if the assumptions of Johansen et al are valid, we must have $`|B_1|B_0`$ prior to a critical crash.

## 3 88 Years of Dow Jones

To check this model of speculative bubbles, we have investigated the Dow Jones index from $`1912`$ to $`2000`$. This period contains $`23668`$ trading days.

Johansen et al define a crash as a continuous drawdown (several consecutive days of negative index performance) larger than $`15\%`$. The following diagram shows the drawdowns of the Dow Jones index from $`1912`$ to $`2000`$. Observe that there have been $`4`$ drawdowns larger than $`15\%`$ namely in the years $`1929`$, $`1932`$, $`1933`$ and $`1987`$.

As our basic data set, we have calculated numerically the best fit of equation $`()`$ to a sliding window of $`750`$ trading days, every $`5`$ trading days. This yields $`4761`$ best fits. The complete data set is available at http://btm8x5.mat.uni-bayreuth.de/$`\stackrel{~}{}`$bothmer .

In what follows, we will call a crash prediction successful, if it was issued at most one year before a crash. With this definition there are $`229`$ best fits that could possibly give a successful crash prediction. By predicting crashes randomly, one would obtain a successful prediction in $`4.8\%`$ of the cases.

### 3.1 Mean square errors $`\chi `$

The first approach to detecting speculative bubbles is to look for good fits of $`()`$ to the Dow Jones Index. If the mean square error $`\chi `$ of the fit is sufficiently small one issues a crash prediction.

The next figure shows the mean square errors of all our best fits compared with the best fits before a crash. Unfortunately small errors also occur in quiet times.

If one issues a crash prediction if the mean square error is smaller then $`0.75`$ one obtains:

|  | before crash | not before crash |
| --- | --- | --- |
| no crash prediction ($`\chi 0.75`$) | $`175`$ | $`2799`$ |
| crash prediction ($`\chi <0.75`$) | $`72`$ | $`1732`$ |

I.e. only $`72/(72+1732)3.9\%`$ of the predictions are successfull. Since this is worse than issuing random predictions, we conclude that one can not predict a crash by looking only at the mean square error. This observation has also been made by Sornette and Johansen.

### 3.2 Critical Times $`t_c`$

If the model of Johansen et al is correct one should expect that a crash occurs close to the critical date $`t_c`$. Using this one can issue a crash prediction when the critical date $`t_c`$ is less than one year away. Using our dataset this lead to:

|  | before crash | not before crash |
| --- | --- | --- |
| no crash prediction ($`t_ctoday+1year`$) | $`93`$ | $`2652`$ |
| crash prediction ($`t_c<today+1year`$) | $`136`$ | $`1879`$ |

I.e $`136/(136+1879)6.7\%`$ of the predictions are successful. This is slightly better that random predictions, but still not very good.

### 3.3 Universality

Johansen et al suggest that speculative bubbles exhibit universal behavior. This would imply that $`\beta `$ and $`\omega `$ take on roughly the same values for each speculative bubble. The following diagram shows the distribution of $`\omega `$ before crashes compared with the distribution during other times.

One can clearly observe an unexpected peak around $`\omega =9`$ before the crashes. If we issue a crash prediction in the range $`7<\omega <13`$ we obtain:

|  | before crash | not before crash |
| --- | --- | --- |
| no crash prediction | $`150`$ | $`3728`$ |
| crash prediction ($`7<\omega <13`$) | $`79`$ | $`803`$ |

I.e $`79/(79+803)8.9\%`$ of the predictions are successful.

The distribution of $`\beta `$ before crashes and not before crashes is:

Here we observe a tendency toward lower values of $`\beta `$, but no clear peak. We interpret this as evidence, that one should look for logarithmic divergence, i.e. the limit of $`\beta `$ tending to $`0`$, as suggested by Vandewalle et al. . We will investigate this approach in a later paper.

### 3.4 Positive hazard rate

In section 2 we have explained that in the model of Johansen et al. the hazard rate $`h(t)`$ must be positive. We proved that this is equivalent to

$$|B_1|B_0.$$

From our best fits we can calculate the value

$$\kappa (B_0|B_1|),$$

which should also be positive during a speculative bubble, since $`\kappa `$ is a positive number. Consequently we can issue a crash warning if $`\kappa (B_0|B_1|)`$ is positive. With our dataset we obtain:

|  | before crash | not before crash |
| --- | --- | --- |
| no crash prediction ($`\kappa (B_0|B_1|)0`$) | $`133`$ | $`4255`$ |
| crash prediction ($`\kappa (B_0|B_1|)>0`$) | $`96`$ | $`276`$ |

I.e $`96/(96+276)25,8\%`$ of the predictions are successful. This is already a practical success rate, but we can do even better, if we combine this with universality.

### 3.5 Positive hazard rate and universality

Combining the last two approaches we issue a crash prediction, if the hazard rate is everywhere positive and $`\omega `$ is in the range of section 3.3. This gives

|  | before crash | not before crash |
| --- | --- | --- |
| no crash prediction | $`164`$ | $`4476`$ |
| crash prediction | $`65`$ | $`55`$ |
| ($`\kappa (B_0|B_1|)>0`$ and $`7<\omega <13`$) |  |  |

I.e $`65/(65+55)54.1\%`$ of the crash predictions are successfull.

The following diagram shows when these crash predictions where issued. For every trading day we have plotted the number of crash predictions during the past year and the drawdown of the Dow Jones index.

Notice that the crashes of $`1929`$ and $`1987`$ have been predicted well in advance. The crashes of $`1932`$ and $`1933`$ have not been directly predicted, but we argue that they are in the aftermath of $`1929`$ and represent the bursting of the same speculative bubble. The crash predictions of $`1997`$ where followed by two small crashes in October $`1997`$ and $`1998`$, which didn’t quite reach $`15\%`$. One could argue that they represent a crash in two steps.

## 4 Summary

We have derived a new restriction of the free variables in the model of Johansen et al  for stock market prices during a speculative bubble. This restriction alone yields crash predictions with a $`25\%`$ successrate for the Dow Jones index. This is an improvement over the $`9\%`$ successrate obtained by using universality. Combining our approach and the universality method we obtain a success rate of $`54\%`$.

We think that these results represent strong evidence for the model of Johansen et al describing speculative bubbles in the stock market.


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# Gas Metallicity of Narrow-Line Regions in Narrow-Line Seyfert 1 Galaxies and Broad-Line Seyfert 1 Galaxies

## 1. INTRODUCTION

Seyfert nuclei are typical active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in the nearby Universe. They have been broadly classified into two types based on the presence or absence of broad ($``$ 2000 km-1) permitted lines in their optical spectra (Khachikian & Weedman 1974); Seyfert nuclei with broad lines are type 1 (hereafter S1) while those without broad lines are type 2 (S2). This difference can be explained by the “unified model” in which it is considered that the broad-line region (BLR) is surrounded by a dusty torus and that the BLR in S2s is obscured by the edge-on view torus from the observer (e.g., Antonucci & Miller 1985; Antonucci 1993). Therefore only narrow ($``$ 2000 km-1) lines, which arise from narrow-line regions (NLRs), are seen in the spectra of S2s. In addition to these two types of Seyfert nuclei, narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxies (NLS1s) also comprise a sub-class of the Seyfert nuclei. Since NLS1s exhibit only narrow (i.e., $``$ 2000 km-1) permitted lines in their optical spectra, NLS1s are recognized as a distinct type of ordinary broad-line S1s (BLS1s). However, NLS1s also show several characteristics of S1s (e.g., Osterbrock & Pogge 1985); e.g., small line flux ratios of \[O iii\]$`\lambda `$5007/H$`\beta `$ ($``$ 3), strong Fe ii and some high-ionization emission lines, and non-absorbed X-ray spectra. Therefore, it is believed that the BLR of NLS1s is not obscured but the line width of the BLR is narrow for some reason.

One possible idea to explain the origin of the narrow BLR emission of NLS1s is that NLS1s have a smaller mass black hole than BLS1s (e.g., Boller, Brandt, & Fink 1996; Laor et al. 1997). If the BLR in NLS1s is the same as the BLR in BLS1s but the gas motion is more quiescent because of the smaller black hole mass, the narrowness of the BLR emission can be successfully explained. The steep and highly variable X-ray spectra, which are also the common properties of NLS1s (e.g., Boller et al. 1996; Turner et al. 1999a; Leighly 1999a, 1999b), can be also explained by introducing the small black hole mass (e.g., Wang, Brinkmann, & Bergeron 1996; Hayashida 2000; Mineshige et al. 2000; Lu & Yu 2001; Puchnarewicz et al. 2001).

Recently, it has been proposed that NLS1s may be relatively young AGNs with a black hole still in a growing-up phase (e.g., Mathur 2000a, 2000b; Mathur, Kuraszkiewicz, & Czerny 2001; see also Komossa & Mathur 2001; Mathur 2001). If NLS1s possess a smaller mass black hole than BLS1s while the luminosity is similar between NLS1s and BLS1s, a mass accretion rate for the same black hole mass is larger in NLS1s than in BLS1s. This implies that the mass accretion in NLS1s is more efficient than in BLS1s, which leads to the above hypothesis. Indeed some observations suggest that the mass accretion rate in NLS1s is high, close to the Eddington rate (e.g., Pounds, Done, & Osborne 1995; Kuraszkiewicz et al. 2000; Pounds & Vaughan 2000; Wandel 2000; Puchnarewicz et al. 2001). Moreover, Wandel (2002) reported that NLS1s have the smaller black hole mass than the value inferred from the correlation between the black hole mass and spheroidal mass of the host galaxy (see also Wandel 1999, 2000; Mathur et al. 2001), which is consistent with the hypothesis that NLS1s possess a growing black hole in their nucleus.

In the framework of this scheme, the gas metallicity of NLS1s has been discussed very recently. Wills et al. (1999) found a negative correlation between the emission-line width of H$`\beta `$ and the line flux ratio of N v $`\lambda `$1240/C iii\]$`\lambda `$1909, which can be interpreted as a result of a nitrogen overabundance in BLRs of NLS1s (see also Wills, Shang, & Yuan 2000; Shemmer & Netzer 2002). The observed strong fluorescent Fe K$`\alpha `$ and optical Fe ii emission, and the unusual spectral feature at 1 keV, which are seen in spectra of some NLS1s, may suggest the overabundance of iron in NLS1s (Turner, George, & Netzer 1999; Ulrich et al. 1999; Collin & Joly 2000; see also Boller et al. 2002). In order to investigate the gas metallicity of NLS1s and BLS1s further, it seems crucial to examine the gas metallicity in NLS1s via various approaches. Therefore, in this paper, we study the gas metallicity of NLRs in NLS1s and compare it with that in BLS1s using some optical diagnostic emission-line flux ratios.

## 2. DATA

The gas metallicity in NLRs of AGNs has been often investigated for S2s (e.g., Shields & Oke 1975; Storchi-Bergmann & Pastoriza 1989, 1990; Storchi-Bergmann 1991; Alloin et al. 1992; Kraemer et al. 1994; Schmitt, Storchi-Bergmann, & Baldwin 1994; Radovich & Rafanelli 1996; Kraemer, Ruiz, & Crenshaw 1998) while it has been scarcely studied for S1s (e.g., Kraemer et al. 1999). One reason for this is that the accurate measurement of the narrow component of permitted lines is rather difficult for S1s. Thus high-quality spectra and their careful analysis are required to measure the narrow-component flux of permitted lines.

Recently, Rodríguez-Ardila, Pastoriza, & Donzelli (2000) presented high-quality optical spectra of 7 NLS1s111 CTS H34.06, Mrk 1239, CTS J03.19, CTS J04.08, NGC 4748, CTS J13.12, and 1H 1934–063. and 16 BLS1s222 CTS C16.16, MCG –5-13-17, CTS H34.03, CTS B31.01, Fairall 1146, CTS M02.30, CTS J07.02, CTS J10.09, CTS R12.15, CTS J14.05, CTS J15.22, CTS M17.17, CTS G03.04, 1H 2107–097, CTS A08.12, and CTS F10.01. Note that we do not use the data of CTS A08.12 in the following analysis since the flux of the \[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583 emission of this object is not presented in Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000).. They carefully removed the underlying stellar continuum and multiple Fe ii emission lines from the observed spectra. Then they deconvolved the narrow component of permitted lines from the broad component and measured various emission-line fluxes accurately. We basically refer the data 333 Note that there is a type-setting error in the Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000) paper; i.e., a second header of Table 4 in the Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000) paper was cut in the editing process. The second set of line fluxes (when the object names are repeated) corresponds in fact to other emission lines organized as follows: \[O i\]$`\lambda `$6300, \[Fe x\]$`\lambda `$6374, H $`\alpha \lambda `$6563, \[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6584, \[S ii\]$`\lambda `$6717, \[S ii\]$`\lambda `$6731, \[Ar iii\]$`\lambda `$7135, \[O ii\]$`\lambda `$7325, \[S iii\]$`\lambda `$9069, and $`E`$($`BV`$). of Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000) in this paper to investigate the gas metallicity of NLRs in NLS1s and BLS1s.

In order to see some possible correlations among narrow emission-line flux ratios in a larger sample of Seyfert nuclei, we also refer the data compiled by Nagao, Murayama, & Taniguchi (2001c). Their sample contains $``$350 Seyfert nuclei. Since their work is based on the data compilation from the literature, the measurement of emission-line flux ratios is done in heterogeneous ways. Therefore, we refer their results only when we see general trends of emission-line flux ratios and we never use them to discuss the difference in the properties of the NLR emission between NLS1s and BLS1s.

## 3. PREVIOUS DIAGNOSTICS FOR THE GAS METALLICITY OF NLR

### 3.1. The \[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583/H$`\alpha `$ Method

The gas metallicity in NLRs of S2s has been sometimes studied by using the emission-line flux ratio of \[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583/H$`\alpha `$ (e.g., Storchi-Bergmann & Pastoriza 1989, 1990; Storchi-Bergmann 1991; Radovich & Rafanelli 1996). Using photoionization models, Storchi-Bergmann & Pastoriza (1989, 1990) showed that this emission-line flux ratio is sensitive to the nitrogen abundance but rather insensitive to the gas density and the ionization parameter (i.e., a number density ratio of ionizing photons to hydrogen atoms). Note that the nitrogen abundance is important since the N/O abundance ratio in galactic H ii regions is known to scale with the O/H abundance ratio (e.g., Shields 1976; Pagel & Edmunds 1981; Villa-Costas & Edmunds 1993; van Zee, Salzer & Haynes 1998; Izotov & Thuan 1999). Therefore the nitrogen abundance, N/H, scales with $`Z^2`$, where $`Z`$ is the gas metallicity. The data of H ii regions show that these scaling relations hold approximately for $`Z0.2Z_{}`$.

We show the histograms of the emission-line flux ratio of \[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583/H$`\alpha _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$ for the NLS1s and the BLS1s in the sample of Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000) in Figure 1. The data are not corrected for the dust extinction because the effect of the dust extinction on this flux ratio is negligibly small. The average and median values of \[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583/H$`\alpha _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$ for the NLS1s and those for the BLS1s are given in Table 1. There is no apparent difference in this flux ratio between the two populations. It is also suggested by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistical test that the two frequency distributions of the flux ratio of \[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583/H$`\alpha _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$ are statistically indistinguishable ($`P_{\mathrm{KS}}=0.912`$). As shown in Figure 2, we cannot find an apparent correlation between the flux ratio of \[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583/H$`\alpha _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$ and full-width at half maximum (FWHM) of the broad component of the H$`\alpha `$ emission. The corresponding correlation coefficient is 0.009, which implies that there is no meaningful correlation between the two quantities. This result seems contrary to the result of Wills et al. (1999), who found an apparent negative correlation between the emission-line flux ratio of N v $`\lambda `$1240/C iii\]$`\lambda `$1909, which is sensitive to the nitrogen abundance, and the FWHM of the broad component of the H$`\beta `$ emission.

### 3.2. The SSCK Method

Based on the intensive photoionization model calculations and the careful calibrations with observations, Storchi-Bergmann et al. (1998, hereafter SSCK) proposed the revised diagnostics for the gas metallicity of NLRs in AGNs. They showed that the oxygen abundance of the NLR gas in AGNs can be expressed by

$`12+\mathrm{log}(\mathrm{O}/\mathrm{H})_{\mathrm{SSCK1}}`$ $`=`$ $`8.34+0.212x0.012x^2`$ (1)
$`0.002y+0.007xy0.002x^2y`$
$`+6.52\times 10^4y^2`$
$`+2.27\times 10^4xy^2`$
$`+8.87\times 10^5x^2y^2`$
where $`x`$ \[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583/H$`\alpha _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$ and $`y`$ \[O iii\]$`\lambda `$5007/H$`\beta _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$, and

$`12+\mathrm{log}(\mathrm{O}/\mathrm{H})_{\mathrm{SSCK2}}`$ $`=`$ $`8.6430.275u+0.164u^2`$ (2)
$`+0.655v0.154uv`$
$`0.021u^2v+0.288v^2`$
$`+0.162uv^2+0.0353u^2v^2`$
where $`u`$ log (\[O ii\]$`\lambda `$3727/\[O iii\]$`\lambda `$5007) and $`v`$ log (\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583/H$`\alpha _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$). These methods weakly depend on the gas density; the derived values should be subtracted by the correction term, 0.1 $`\times `$ log ($`n_\mathrm{H}`$/300 cm-3) where $`n_\mathrm{H}`$ is the hydrogen density (see SSCK for more details). We apply these relations to the data of Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000). For the objects whose gas density is not given in Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000) (CTS H34.03, CTS M02.30, CTS J14.05, CTS G03.04, and 1H 2107-097), we assume the gas density to be 300 cm-3. The average and median values of the derived 12 + log (O/H)SSCK1 and 12 + log (O/H)SSCK2 are given in Table 2. Here the effect of the dust extinction is corrected by adopting the values of $`A_V`$ presented by Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000) and the extinction curve of Cardelli, Clayton, & Mathis (1989). There is no tendency that the NLS1s are metal rich compared to the BLS1 as implied by some earlier studies. To the contrary, the derived oxygen abundances may be larger in the sample of BLS1s than in the sample of NLS1s. We show the relationships between the FWHM of the broad component of the H$`\alpha `$ emission and the derived oxygen abundances in Figure 3. The object with a larger FWHM of the H$`\alpha `$ emission seems to be more oxygen abundant when equation (1) is applied, though this tendency is not significant. On the other hand, such a tendency is not seen when equation (2) is applied.

### 3.3. Remarks on the Two Methods

Do the above results presented in §3.2 suggest that the NLR of NLS1s is not metal rich compared to that of BLS1s? Recently, Véron-Cetty, Véron, & Gonçalves (2001) pointed out that the broad component of permitted lines in the optical spectra of NLS1s is well fitted by a Lorentzian profile and thus the decomposition of the narrow component of permitted lines from the broad component by Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000) may be inaccurate, since the broad components of permitted lines were fitted by a Gaussian profile by Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000) (see also Moran, Halpern, & Helfand 1996; Leighly et al. 1999b; Gonçalves, Véron, & Véron-Cetty 1999; Sulentic et al. 2002). If this claim is the case, the flux ratio of \[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583/H$`\alpha _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$ may be inappropriate for the metallicity diagnostics because the selection of the fitting function for the broad component of permitted lines affects the measurement of not only the broad component but also the narrow component of permitted lines.

Indeed, the derived oxygen abundances of the NLR gas of the NLS1s and the BLS1s by using equations (1) and (2) should be suspected if we take account of the following two facts. First, most of the derived oxygen abundances suggest very sub-solar metallicities. This is especially remarkable when equation (1) is adopted: the median value of the derived oxygen abundances corresponds to $`Z0.32Z_{}`$. Second, the derived oxygen abundances are not consistent to each other. That is, the average and median values of the derived oxygen abundances are systematically different: the oxygen abundances derived by using equation (2) are larger than that by using equation (1) by $``$0.3 dex. This difference is more clearly shown in Figure 4, in which we compare the two kinds of the inferred oxygen abundances. Although SSCK also mentioned that the oxygen abundance derived by equation (2) tends to be higher than the one derived by equation (1) by $``$0.11 dex, the difference in the sample of Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000) is much larger than that reported by SSCK. This may imply that the methods proposed by SSCK are inappropriate to estimate the gas metallicities of NLRs, at least for S1s. Thus it seems to be safe to avoid using the narrow component of permitted lines for the investigation of the gas properties of NLRs in S1s.

## 4. NEW DIAGNOSTICS FOR THE GAS METALLICITY OF NLR

### 4.1. Correlations among Forbidden Emission-Line Flux Ratios

As mentioned in the last section, it seems desirable to use only forbidden lines for studies of the gas metallicity of NLRs in S1s. Furthermore, it seems ideal to use only low-ionization forbidden emission lines to discuss the gas properties. This is because low-ionization line-emitting regions and high-ionization line-emitting regions may be spatially segregated (e.g., Baker 1997; Murayama & Taniguchi 1998a, 1998b; Nagao, Taniguchi, & Murayama 2000; Nagao, Murayama, & Taniguchi 2001b, 2001c; see also Hes, Barthel, & Fosbury 1993). Taking the above two constraints into account, we examine whether or not the forbidden emission-line flux ratios of \[O i\]$`\lambda `$6300/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583, \[O ii\]$`\lambda `$3727/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583, and \[S ii\]$`\lambda \lambda `$6717,6731/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583 can be useful estimators for the nitrogen abundance of gas clouds in the NLRs.

In Figure 5, we show the relationship among the three forbidden emission-line flux ratios. Here we use the data of Nagao et al. (2001c) in order to find possible correlations among the three flux ratios. Since the data are not corrected for the dust reddening, we also show the effect of the reddening correction, which is calculated by adopting the extinction curve of Cardelli et al. (1989), in Figure 5. As shown apparently, positive correlations are seen among the three flux ratios. The corresponding correlation coefficients are 0.674 and 0.561 for \[O ii\]$`\lambda `$3727/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583 versus \[O i\]$`\lambda `$6300/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583 and \[S ii\]$`\lambda \lambda `$6717,6731/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583 versus \[O i\]$`\lambda `$6300/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583, respectively. These correlation coefficients imply that there are meaningful correlations among the three flux ratios. What makes these correlations? Or, can these correlations be interpreted as sequences of the nitrogen abundance? In order to investigate these issues, we perform photoionization model calculations. The model methods and the results are presented in the following sections.

### 4.2. Photoionization Models

To investigate the origin of the correlations presented in the last section, we carry out photoionization model calculations by using the publicly available code $`Cloudy`$ version 94.00 (Ferland 1997, 2000). Here we assume uniform density gas clouds with a plane-parallel geometry. The parameters for the calculations are (I) the hydrogen density of a cloud ($`n_\mathrm{H}`$), (II) the ionization parameter ($`U`$), (III) the chemical composition of the gas, and (IV) the shape of the spectral energy distribution (SED) of the input continuum radiation.

We perform several model runs covering the following ranges of parameters: 102.0 cm-3 $``$ $`n_\mathrm{H}`$ $``$ 105.0 cm-3 and 10-3.5 $``$ $`U`$ $``$ 10-2.0.

For the chemical composition of the gas clouds, we assume the case that the metals are all scaled keeping solar proportions except for nitrogen; the nitrogen abundance scales with $`Z^2`$ (this assumption is altered in some calculations presented in §5). We calculate the models covering a metallicity range of 0.25 $``$ $`Z/Z_{}`$ $``$ 3.0, which corresponds to 8.27 $``$ 12 + log (O/H) $``$ 9.35 and 6.77 $``$ 12 + log (N/H) $``$ 8.92. The adopted elemental abundances of the solar ones relative to hydrogen are taken from Grevesse & Anders (1989) with extensions by Grevesse & Noels (1993). We also examine the case that a part of heavy elements is depleted into dust grains. In this case, 90% of Mg, Si, and Fe, 50% of C and O, and 25% of N and S are locked into dust grains, as estimated for the Orion H ii region (e.g., Baldwin et al. 1991, 1996). This corresponds to the case that the gas clouds in NLRs contain unnegligible dust grains. However, we ignore grain opacity, heating and cooling, since their properties in photoionized gases are highly uncertain. Although the heating process by grain photoelectrons is important for enhancing some high-ionization emission lines (e.g., Shields & Kennicutt 1995), it does not affect our results significantly since we use only low-ionization emission lines.

We adopt two types of SED for the calculations; for both the SEDs, we adopt the following function:

$$f_\nu =\nu ^{\alpha _{\mathrm{uv}}}\mathrm{exp}\left(\frac{h\nu }{kT_{\mathrm{BB}}}\right)\mathrm{exp}\left(\frac{kT_{\mathrm{IR}}}{h\nu }\right)+a\nu ^{\alpha _\mathrm{x}}$$
(3)
(see Ferland 1997). We adopt the following parameter set (see Nagao et al. 2001a for more details): (i) the infrared cutoff of the big blue bump component, $`kT_{\mathrm{IR}}`$ = 0.01 Ryd, (ii) the slope of the low-energy side of the big blue bump, $`\alpha _{\mathrm{uv}}`$ = –0.5, (iii) the UV–to–X-ray spectral index, $`\alpha _{\mathrm{ox}}`$ = –1.35, (iv) the slope of the X-ray power-law continuum, $`\alpha _\mathrm{x}`$ = –0.85 or –1.15, and (v) the characteristic temperature of the big blue bump, $`T_{\mathrm{BB}}`$ = 4.9 $`\times `$ 105 K or 11.8 $`\times `$ 105 K. Hereafter the continua with ($`\alpha _\mathrm{x}`$, $`T_{\mathrm{BB}}`$) = (–0.85, 4.9 $`\times `$ 105 K) and (–1.15, 11.8 $`\times `$ 105 K) are denoted as “BLS1-like SED” and “NLS1-like SED”, respectively. Note that the parameter $`a`$ in equation (3) is determined from the adopted value of $`\alpha _{\mathrm{ox}}`$. The last term in equation (3) is not extrapolated below 1.36 eV or above 100 keV. Below 1.36 eV the last term is simply set to zero. Above 100 keV the continuum is assumed to fall off as $`\nu ^3`$.

The calculations are stopped when the temperature falls to 3000 K, below which the gas does not contribute significantly to the observed optical emission-line spectra.

### 4.3. Results of Model Calculations

In Figure 6, we present the results of the models with the metallicity of $`Z=Z_{}`$. These model results are used to investigate whether or not the gas density, the ionization parameter, or the combination of both two parameters drives the correlations presented in §4.1. Here the models with the NLS1-like SED and the BLS1-like SED are presented. It is apparently shown that the emission-line flux ratios of \[O i\]$`\lambda `$6300/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583, \[O ii\]$`\lambda `$3727/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583, and \[S ii\]$`\lambda \lambda `$6717,6731/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583 are insensitive to the ionization parameter for any type of the adopted ionizing SEDs. The predicted emission-line flux ratios vary by less than a factor of 2 when the ionization parameter is changed between 10-3.5 and 10-2.0. This is mainly because we use only low-ionization forbidden emission lines. Although the three emission-line flux ratios are rather sensitive to the gas density, the model grids for varying gas densities are perpendicular to the observed correlations for any type of the adopted ionizing SEDs, as shown in Figure 6. These results do not depend on whether or not the heavy elements are depleted into dust grains, as shown in Figure 6. Therefore, we conclude that the observed correlations among the three emission-line flux ratios are not significantly attributed to the effects of the gas density, the ionization parameter, or both.

Then, are the correlations attributed to the nitrogen abundance (i.e., the gas metallicity) ? In Figure 7, we show the results of model calculations in which the gas metallicity is varied between $`0.25Z/Z_{}3.0`$. Here the NLS1-like SED and the BLS1-like SED are adopted for the ionizing continuum together with $`U=10^{3.0}`$. It is shown that the metallicity sequences can well explain the observed correlations in the flux ratios of the low-ionization forbidden lines for both cases, the models with the non-depleted abundances and with the depleted abundances. We thus conclude that the observed correlations among the flux ratios of the low-ionization forbidden lines are mainly attributed to the variety of the gas metallicity. Since the narrow component of permitted lines is not used and only forbidden lines are used, these diagrams presented in Figure 7 can be powerful diagnostics for the gas metallicity in the NLR of AGNs, especially for S1s.

Here we mention that the flux ratio of \[O i\]$`\lambda `$6300/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583 seems to be the most appropriate diagnostic for gas metallicity among the three emission-line flux ratios. This is because the flux ratio of \[O ii\]$`\lambda `$3727/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583 and \[S ii\]$`\lambda \lambda `$6717,6731/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583 are sensitive to the gas density while that of \[O i\]$`\lambda `$6300/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583 is not, unless the gas density is high ($`10^4`$ cm-3). The flux ratio of \[O ii\]$`\lambda `$3727/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583 is sensitive to the dust extinction, additionally.

### 4.4. Application to NLRs in NLS1s and BLS1s

Now we apply our new method to the investigation of the gas metallicity of NLRs in NLS1s and BLS1s. In Figure 8, we plot the data of Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000) on the diagnostic diagrams presented in §4.3. It appears that the NLS1s have smaller flux ratios of \[O i\]$`\lambda `$6300/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583, \[O ii\]$`\lambda `$3727/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583, and \[S ii\]$`\lambda \lambda `$6717,6731/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583 than the BLS1s. The average and median values of these three emission-line flux ratios for the NLS1s and BLS1s are given in Table 1. These values imply that there are differences in the emission-line flux ratios between the NLS1s and the BLS1s, though the statistical significance is low; i.e., $`P_{\mathrm{KS}}=`$ 0.133, 0.533, and 0.767 for the flux ratios of \[O i\]$`\lambda `$6300/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583, \[O ii\]$`\lambda `$3727/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583, and \[S ii\]$`\lambda \lambda `$6717,6731/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583, respectively (see Table 1). Here it should be noted that the photoionization models predict larger ratios of \[O i\]$`\lambda `$6300/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583 for NLS1s than for BLS1s, if the difference in the SED of ionizing photons between NLS1s and BLS1s is taken into account. The data of Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000) exhibit the opposite trend from the prediction of the photoionization models. It is thus suggested that the gas metallicity in NLRs of the NLS1s is possibly higher than that of the BLS1s, at least for the sample of Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000).

In Figure 9, we show the relationship between the FWHM of the broad component of the H$`\alpha `$ emission and the flux ratio of \[O i\]$`\lambda `$6300/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583 for the sample of Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000). Being different from Figures 2 and 3, it appears to be a positive correlation between them. Its correlation coefficient is 0.681, which implies that there is a meaningful correlation between them. This is consistent with the result of Wills et al. (1999); that is, the object with narrower BLR emission tends to exhibit higher nitrogen abundance.

## 5. DISCUSSION

As investigated in §3 and §4, the inferred difference in the gas metallicity of NLRs between NLS1s and BLS1s depends on the adopted diagnostics. When equation (1) is used to estimate the gas metallicity, it is suggested that NLS1s tend to have metal-poorer NLR gas than BLS1s, though the difference is not significant. Contrary to this result, the diagnostics examined in §4 suggest that NLS1s appear to possess metal-richer NLR gas than BLS1s. There appears to be no significant difference in the estimated metallicity by using equation (2). Why the results are inconsistent in each other? Which is a reliable diagnostics to estimate the gas metallicity in NLRs? Here we discuss these issues in order to understand how the gas metallicity is different, or not, between NLS1s and BLS1s.

As discussed by Nagao et al. (2001c), it is sometimes difficult to measure fluxes of the narrow component of permitted lines for S1s. Since the method using either equation (1) or (2) requires the flux of the narrow component of permitted lines, the oxygen abundances derived at §3 can suffer from this effect and thus he derived values may contain large errors. In addition to this uncertainty, there is another effect which may diminish the reliability of the metallicity diagnostics adopted in §3. Véron-Cetty et al. (2001) reported that the broad Balmer lines in the spectra of NLS1s are well fitted by a Lorentzian profile rather than a Gaussian profile (see also Moran et al. 1996; Leighly 1999b; Gonçalves et al. 1999; Sulentic et al. 2002). When the broad component is fitted by a Lorentzian profile instead of a Gaussian profile, the measurement of the narrow component of the line is affected. This results in larger ratios of \[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583/H$`\alpha _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$ and \[O iii\]$`\lambda `$5007/H$`\beta _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$ compared to the case when the broad component of permitted lines is fitted by a Gaussian profile as done by Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000) (see Figure 8 of Véron-Cetty et al. 2001). Therefore, the ratios of \[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583/H$`\alpha _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$ and \[O iii\]$`\lambda `$5007/H$`\beta _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$ in the data of Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000) may be underestimated if a Lorentzian profile is a better function to measure the broad component of permitted lines than a Gaussian profile which Rodríguez-Ardila et al. (2000) adopted. In order to see how the underestimation of the flux ratios of \[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583/H$`\alpha _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$ and \[O iii\]$`\lambda `$5007/H$`\beta _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$ affects the inferred oxygen abundance, we consider the case in which the two flux ratios are underestimated by a factor of 10. We assume \[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583/H$`\alpha _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$ = 2.0, \[O iii\]$`\lambda `$5007/H$`\beta _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$ = 10.0, and \[O ii\]$`\lambda `$3727/\[O iii\]$`\lambda `$5007 = 0.1, which would be measured as \[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583/H$`\alpha _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$ = 0.2, \[O iii\]$`\lambda `$5007/H$`\beta _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$ = 1.0, and \[O ii\]$`\lambda `$3727/\[O iii\]$`\lambda `$5007 = 0.1, respectively. In this situation, the oxygen abundances are also underestimated by a factor of $``$0.28 for log (O/H)SSCK1 and by a factor of $``$0.30 for log (O/H)SSCK2. This result suggests that we might underestimate the oxygen abundance in §3 if the Lorentzian profile is the representative function for the broad component of permitted lines. This may be the reason why the results derived in §3 and §4 are inconsistent; the oxygen abundance of gas in NLS1s may be selectively underestimated when the SSCK method is applied, due to the Lorentzian profile of broad components of permitted lines in the spectra of NLS1s. Although the reason why the broad component of the permitted lines is well fitted by Lorentzian is not clear, Dumont & Collin-Souffrin (1990) showed that the Lorentzian profile could be produced if the BLR emission is produced at gas clouds in a disk-like geometry around a supermassive black hole (see also Véron-Cetty et al. 2001; Sulentic et al. 2002). We do not discuss the origin of the Lorentzian profile further since this issue is beyond the purpose of this paper. Since the diagnostics investigated in §4 consist of only forbidden lines and thus are free from the above uncertainties, we conclude that the results obtained in §4 are more reliable than those obtained in §3. Therefore, it can be concluded that the metallicity of gas clouds in NLRs is higher in NLS1s than in BLS1s.

Here we mention that the diagnostics investigated in §4 may also have a possible drawback. As shown in Figure 7, the correlations among the emission-line flux ratios of \[O i\]$`\lambda `$6300/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583, \[O ii\]$`\lambda `$3727/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583, and \[S ii\]$`\lambda \lambda `$6717,6731/\[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583 can be explained by the photoionization models in the parameter ranges of $`n_\mathrm{H}10^{25}`$ cm-3 and 0.5 $`Z/Z_{}`$ 3.0. The inferred range of the gas density is consistent with the previously reported values (e.g., Tsvetanov & Walsh 1992; Storchi-Bergmann, Wilson, & Baldwin 1992; Schmitt et al. 1994). However, the model values of metallicity would contain possible uncertainties if the nitrogen production is delayed relative to the oxygen production. The delay is significant if the timescale for the increase in the metallicity by star formation activity is comparable to or shorter than the lifetime of the nitrogen-producing stars, i.e., $`10^8`$ yr (e.g., Hamann & Ferland 1993, 1999; Henry, Edmunds, & Köppen 2000; see also Hamann et al. 2002). This effect results in that the abundance ratio of N/H become to be below the solar value at $`Z=Z_{}`$. Although this offset is only weakly present in the data of H ii region (van Zee et al. 1998), it could be substantial in AGNs (see, e.g., Hamann & Ferland 1999). Taking this effect into account, one can formulate the nitrogen abundance of the gas as

$$\mathrm{log}\frac{(\mathrm{N}/\mathrm{H})}{(\mathrm{N}/\mathrm{H})_{}}=2\mathrm{l}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{g}(Z/Z_{})q$$
(4)
where $`q`$ is the logarithmic offset. Hamann et al. (2002) mentioned that the $`q`$ value might reach up to $``$0.2–0.5 for gas in AGNs. In order to investigate the effect of this delay on our diagnostics, we perform further model calculations. The adopted parameters are the same as those of the models presented in Figures 7 and 8 except for the $`q`$ value, which is altered from $`q=0`$ to $`q=0.5`$. The results are shown in Figure 10. The diagrams in Figure 10 suggest that the gas metallicity of NLRs is $`1.0Z/Z_{}3.0`$ for the BLS1s while $`Z/Z_{}2.5`$ for the NLS1s. These values are larger than those suggested by the diagrams in Figure 8. Therefore, the diagnostics investigated in §4 may be invalid when we estimate the absolute values of the gas metallicity since the true $`q`$ value for the NLR in AGNs is unclear. We can, however, use the diagnostics to compare the gas metallicities between NLS1s and BLS1s unless the $`q`$ value is systematically different between NLS1s and BLS1s. Since there is no reason to exist such a difference in the $`q`$ value between the two populations of S1s, the conclusion that the gas metallicity in NLRs tends to be relatively higher in NLS1s than in BLS1s seems valid, even if the uncertainty of the $`q`$ value is taken into account.

Finally, we discuss the effect of the inhomogeneity of NLRs on our results. It is known that there are significant density gradients in NLRs (e.g., Kraemer et al. 2000). Since the \[O i\]$`\lambda `$6300 transition has higher critical density ($`1.8\times 10^6`$ cm-3) than the transitions of \[O ii\]$`\lambda `$3727, \[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6583, \[S ii\]$`\lambda `$6717, and \[S ii\]$`\lambda `$6731 ($`4.5\times 10^3`$ cm-3, $`8.7\times 10^4`$ cm-3, $`1.5\times 10^3`$ cm-3, and $`3.9\times 10^3`$ cm-3, respectively), gas clouds with $`n_\mathrm{H}>10^5`$ cm-3 may selectively radiate the \[O i\]$`\lambda `$6300 emission. Therefore our one-zone photoionization models may be inappropriate to investigate the gas metallicity of NLRs if such a high-density gas cloud contributes to emission-line spectra of NLS1s and BLS1s differently. Indeed there are significant differences in the emission-line fluxes of some high-ionization emission line such as \[Fe vii\]$`\lambda `$6087 and \[Fe x\]$`\lambda `$6374 between S1s and S2s, which is due to the different contribution of dense gas clouds in NLRs (e.g., Murayama & Taniguchi 1998a; Nagao et al. 2000, 2001c). However, it has been already shown by Nagao et al. (2000, 2001c) that there is no systematic difference in the high-ionization emission lines between NLS1s and BLS1s. This suggests that the contribution from the dense gas clouds to emission-line spectra is not so different between NLS1s and BLS1s. Therefore, our conclusions seem valid even if possible density inhomogeneity is taken into account.

## 6. SUMMARY

In order to explore possible differences in the gas metallicity between NLS1s and BLS1s, we have focused on the gas in NLRs. It is found that the results depend on the applied diagnostics. The emission-line flux ratio of \[N ii\]$`\lambda `$6538/H$`\alpha _{\mathrm{narrow}}`$, which has been often used to discuss the gas metallicity of NLRs in S2s, is not significantly different between NLS1s and BLS1s. Some other diagnostics in which the narrow component of permitted lines is used also suggest that there is little or no systematic difference in the gas metallicity between NLS1s and BLS1s. On the other hand, the diagnostics which consist of only forbidden emission lines, which are newly proposed in this paper, suggest that the gas metallicity of NLRs in NLS1s tend to be higher than that in BLS1s. This complex situation may be solved if the Lorentzian profile, rather than the Gaussian profile, is the representative function for the broad component of permitted lines in the spectra of NLS1s. Since the results derived by using only forbidden emission-line fluxes do not suffer from the uncertainty of the fitting function for the broad component of permitted lines, it can be concluded that the gas metallicity of NLRs tends to be higher in NLS1s than in BLS1s.

We would like to thank Gary Ferland for providing his code $`Cloudy`$ to the public. Alberto Rodríguez-Ardila kindly provided information about the emission-line flux ratios of some Seyfert galaxies. YS is supported by a Research Fellowship from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science for Young Scientists. This work was financially supported in part by Grant-in-Aids for the Scientific Research (Nos. 10044052, 10304013, and 13740122) of the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology.


text:
# High-Resolution X-ray Imaging of the Colliding Wind Shock in WR 147

## 1 Introduction

Massive, early-type binaries with powerful stellar winds can generate a complex region of shock-heated plasma with temperatures in excess of $`10^7`$ K when these winds collide (Prilutskii & Usov PU1976 (1976); Cherepashchuk C1976 (1976)). X-ray observations provide a direct probe of the conditions within the collision zone and also of the unshocked attenuating material along the line of sight in the system (e.g. Stevens et al. SBP1992 (1992); Pollock et al. Po1999 (1999); Pittard & Stevens PS1997 (1997)). Single early-type and Wolf-Rayet (WR) stars are also known to be X-ray emitters. The most viable model currently proposed is that the $`10^610^7`$ K X-rays are generated by shocks in the wind resulting from the unstable nature of the line-driven acceleration (e.g. Owocki et al. OCR1988 (1988); Feldmeier et al. FPP1997 (1997)). Direct spectroscopic evidence of clumps/shocks in WR winds was first noted by Moffat et al. (MDLR1988 (1988)).

Emission from colliding winds is often observable as a strong high-temperature X-ray excess above that expected from the individual stars, together with phase-locked orbital variability resulting from the changing line of sight into the system (e.g. Pollock Po1987 (1987); Chlebowski C1989 (1989); Williams et al. W1990 (1990); Chlebowski & Garmany CG1991 (1991); Corcoran C1996 (1996)). Recent Chandra observations have revealed spectral features which are noticeably different to those from single early-type stars, including strong forbidden line emission (Corcoran et al. CISP2001 (2001); Pollock et al. Po2002 (2002); Skinner et al. SGSS2001 (2001)). In all previous X-ray observations, the colliding wind emission has remained spatially unresolved, and contaminated by the emission from the individual winds.

Non-thermal radio emission from WR stars is also a good indicator of wind-wind interaction (e.g. Dougherty & Williams DW2000 (2000)). Such emission is thought to be synchrotron radiation arising from electrons accelerated to relativistic velocities in the wind-wind collision zone (Eichler & Usov EU1993 (1993)). The presence of nonthermal radio emission from WR 147 (AS 431) was reported by Caillault et al. (C1985 (1985)) and Abbott et al. (ABCT1986 (1986)). Later observations with MERLIN at 5 GHz resolved two radio sources (WR 147S and WR 147N) separated by $`0.6`$″(Moran et al. M1989 (1989)). The southern thermal source (WR 147S) was coincident with the WR star, and the northern source (WR 147N) was proposed to be responsible for the observed nonthermal emission. Independent observations with the VLA confirmed this hypothesis (Churchwell et al. C1992 (1992); Skinner et al. SINZ1999 (1999)). Moran et al. (M1989 (1989)) further suggested that WR 147 could have an unseen companion associated with the northern radio source.

WR 147 attracted the attention of many astronomers when radio, infrared and optical observations at high spatial resolution provided unambiguous evidence of its binarity (Williams et al. W1997 (1997), hereafter W97; Niemela et al. N1998 (1998), hereafter N98). New, higher resolution MERLIN observations by W97 revealed that at 5 GHz both sources are elongated with sizes of $`170\times 253`$ mas (WR 147S) and $`267\times 79`$ mas (WR 147N), and that they had a separation of $`575\pm 15`$ mas. The UKIRT infrared and HST optical images revealed for the first time a faint companion star located to the north of the nonthermal source associated with WR 147N. Crucially, the relative positions of the sources revealed that the companion star, although close to the nonthermal radio emission, was located slightly ($``$ 60 mas) more distant from the WR star. The resulting picture is thus consistent with the nonthermal emission arising in a colliding winds shock between the two stars, with the wind of the WN8 star dominating.

The spectral type of the companion is currently somewhat uncertain, as the excessive reddening towards this object ($`A_V12`$ mag; Churchwell et al. C1992 (1992)) makes it hard to get a (blue) classification spectrum. Based on ram pressure arguments, a companion with a late-O or early-B spectral type is expected to have a sufficiently strong stellar wind to produce the bow-shock at its observed position111The latest attempt (Lepine et al. L2001 (2001)) based on STIS/HST resolved spectra yields an O5-7I(f) type, which seems a little luminous for the observed magnitude difference.. Although the mass-loss rate and wind velocity are not known for the OB star, the wind momentum ratio can be directly determined from the geometry, specifically by comparison of the position of the nonthermal source with those of the stars (i.e. the ratio $`r_{\mathrm{OB}}/D`$, cf. Usov U1992 (1992)). Estimates for the wind momentum ratio,

$$\eta =\frac{(\dot{M}v_{\mathrm{}})_{\mathrm{OB}}}{(\dot{M}v_{\mathrm{}})_{\mathrm{WN}}},$$
(1)
range from $`0.011_{0.009}^{+0.016}`$ (W97) to $`0.028_{0.027}^{+0.172}`$ (N98). This value can then be used to estimate the wind momentum of the OB star if we know that of the WN star (see Section 3.1). The inclination angle can also be estimated from the observed geometry: W97 deduced $`i=41^{}`$, and Contreras & Rodríguez (CR1999 (1999), hereafter CR99) determined $`i=45\pm 15^{}`$ from VLA observations.

With WR 147 revealed as a colliding winds source it was expected that most of the X-ray emission could be from the wind-wind collision. A recent observation with ASCA (Skinner et al. SINZ1999 (1999)) determined the emission to be thermal (although multi-temperature) with the dominant component at $`kT1`$ keV. This is slightly harder than the characteristic temperature from single early-type stars ($`0.5`$ keV). A high absorption column ($`N_\mathrm{H}>10^{22}\mathrm{cm}^2`$) in agreement with estimates based on the visual extinction was also confirmed. The intrinsic luminosity in the $`0.510`$ keV band was estimated as $`L_\mathrm{x}=3.5\times 10^{32}\mathrm{erg}\mathrm{s}^1`$, which gives $`\mathrm{log}\mathrm{L}_\mathrm{x}/\mathrm{L}_{\mathrm{bol}}6.5`$, 0.5 dex greater than the canonical value of $`7`$ from single early-type stars.

WR 147 is the second closest WR star ($`D650`$ pc; Morris et al. M2000 (2000)) and one of a small number of WR systems where the companion stars have been spatially resolved (other examples being WR 86 and WR 146 - N98). Of these, only WR 147 has a sufficiently great separation between the stars for us to attempt to spatially resolve the wind-wind interaction region at X-ray energies. This in turn is currently only possible with the recently launched Chandra X-ray Observatory, which combines a superb mirror with sub-arcsecond resolution (van Speybroeck et al. vS1997 (1997)) and accurate, stable pointing. In this paper we report on the analysis of a 5 ksec observation of WR 147 with the High Resolution Camera (HRC-I).

## 2 HRC-I Analysis

Chandra (Weisskopf et al. WOvS1996 (1996)) observed WR 147 with the HRC-I instrument (Murray et al. M1997 (1997)) on 2000 July 10 12:11 UT to 14:09 UT for a total exposure time of 4.87 ksec. The HRC-I is a microchannel plate imager with excellent spatial and temporal resolution but poor energy resolution. Each photon detected by the HRC-I is time and position tagged. The size of the electronic readout is $`6.429\mu \mathrm{m}`$ ($`0.13175`$″, referred to as ‘one pixel’) which oversamples the point-spread-function (PSF). All Chandra data which have undergone reprocessing have benefited from improvements made to the crossed-grid charge detector signals. This has reduced the 50 per cent encircled energy radius from 4.0 to 3.2 pixels (0.527″ to 0.422″; Juda et al. J2000 (2000)). Softer photons are brought to a slightly tighter focus than harder energies. Our analysis is based on the pipeline processed data from the Rev1 Chandra X-ray Center (CXC) reprocessing.

The CXC has measured the on-orbit performance of the Pointing Control and Aspect Determination (PCAD) system on Chandra (see Sec. 5.4 and Table 5.1 of the Proposer’s Observatory Guide, hereafter POG), and determined that the standard processing is capable of placing a reconstructed X-ray image on the celestial sphere to an accuracy of $`0.76`$″(RMS) radius. The image was dithered during the observation and these effects were removed during post-processing. We also checked that pointing transients had damped out by the time that the actual observation began, and that the pointing remained stable during the observation.

A total of 115420 events were noted after the standard level 2 processing, which yields a count rate across the entire detector of $`23.7\mathrm{cts}\mathrm{s}^1`$. This implies a background rate of slightly less than $`10^5\mathrm{cts}\mathrm{s}^1\mathrm{arcsec}^2`$. We therefore expect only 1 background count within the source area of WR 147 shown in Fig. 1. Running the source detection software yielded one reliable source in addition to WR 147, “Source 2” in Table 1. We did not find an optical counterpart to this source in the Tycho-2 catalogue from the Hipparcos mission (Hôg et al. H2000 (2000)), but a counterpart was found on images from the Palomar Sky Surveys (POSS). Its position has been measured on red and blue plates of the (original) POSS-I survey with the PMM machine for the USNO-A2.0 catalogue (Monet et al. M1999 (1999)) to be $`\mathrm{20\hspace{0.33em}36\hspace{0.33em}30.100},+\mathrm{40\hspace{0.33em}21\hspace{0.33em}23.32}`$ (J2000). The offsets in RA and Dec from the Chandra detection are +0s.018 and +0.22″, close to the estimated astrometric precision (0.3″) of the USNO-A2.0 catalogue. The I magnitude of the coincident source is $`12`$, which is slightly too faint for Tycho.

We also measured the star’s coordinates from SuperCosmos (e.g. Hambly et al. H1998 (1998)) scans of glass copies of the POSS-II survey. It appears on the overlap region of two red plates giving coordinates $`\mathrm{20\hspace{0.33em}36\hspace{0.33em}30.058},+\mathrm{40\hspace{0.33em}21\hspace{0.33em}22.97}`$ and $`\mathrm{20\hspace{0.33em}36\hspace{0.33em}30.074},+\mathrm{40\hspace{0.33em}21\hspace{0.33em}22.91}`$ (J2000). These positions are independent of each other, coming from reductions using different sets of Tycho2 stars centred about 5 degrees apart. The mean offsets from these coordinates to the Chandra Source 2 are -0.014s and -0.16″, in the opposite sense to the POSS-I offsets. The sets of stellar coordinates from the POSS-I and POSS-II plates are consistent within the uncertainties of their measurement but the difference (0.54″) might also reflect proper motion of the star between the epochs of the POSS-I and POSS-II survey observations.

Finally a search in the 2MASS catalogue also revealed a possible match for the second source, although the positional accuracy is too poor to help to register the HRC-I image. In any event, because we have only one X-ray source additional to WR 147 in the field, which could be a line-of-sight coincidence with the star measured off the POSS, we will not use these offsets to refine the alignment of the X-ray and optical/radio positions, and must accept some astrometric uncertainty in our analysis of the Chandra data.

The accuracy of the radio positions of WR 147 and their tie to the optical frame comes via the phase reference source, and the uncertainty is not much more than 10 mas in each coordinate. On the other hand, the uncertainty in the X-ray positions relative to the optical frame is a combination of the source centroid on the detector (as listed in Table 1), and of the tie of the X-ray to the optical frame. It is this last factor which dominates the uncertainty in the relative radio/X-ray positioning. As already noted, the standard processing is accurate in a statistical sense to 0.76″(RMS). However, the Chandra and SuperCosmos-POSS-II positions of source 2 suggests that the positioning of the X-ray frame is accurate to -0.014s and -0.16″, which is consistent with the uncertainties in the position of the source centroids on the X-ray detector and also comparable to the SuperCosmos uncertainties. If we were to incorporate this shift, the X-ray peak would lie on the western edge of the radio bow shock. Hence the intrinsic astrometry appears to be much more accurate for our observation than indicated by the RMS uncertainty, and we can confidently state that the X-ray peak is definitely not cospatial with the WR star.

However, we would need to be able to align the X-ray and optical frames to a positional accuracy of better than 0.05″($`<0.4`$ pixels) to distinguish between the position of the radio bow shock or the companion star. This is clearly beyond the capability of our current dataset. Therefore in Fig. 2 we have added an offset ($`0.00965\mathrm{s},0.1387\mathrm{}`$) to the actual X-ray data so that the peak emission matches up with the centre of the nonthermal radio emission from the bowshock. This offset is well within the nominal accuracy of the Chandra aspect solution. In summary the X-ray peak is certainly not cospatial with the WR star, but could be cospatial with either the nonthermal radio peak or the northern optical component.

Another crucial question concerns whether the detected emission is consistent with an extended object. To address this point we constructed several independent tests. We first extracted a PSF at the position of WR 147 using monochromatic source photons of energy 1.5 keV. This is a sensible approximation to the actual spectrum which is sharply peaked at $`1.5`$ keV (Skinner et al. SINZ1999 (1999)). We then extracted radially averaged surface brightness plots of the PSF and WR 147, and found that the full width half maximum (FWHM) of the former was $`0.45\mathrm{}`$ (in good agreement with the $`0.4\mathrm{}`$ quoted in the POG), compared to $`1.0\mathrm{}`$ for the WR 147 data.

In a second test we fitted a Gaussian function to the PSF and the HRC-I data of WR 147, and used a maximum likelihood method to determine the optimal FWHM. Despite experiencing complications in our fit to the PSF data due to its extended wings, we again found that the FWHM of the WR 147 data ($`0.85\mathrm{}`$) was significantly larger than that of the PSF ($`0.5\mathrm{}`$). Finally, in a third test we investigated how the likelihood varied if we assumed that the source was a circular region of constant surface brightness and adjusted its radius. When fitting to the PSF, we found that the likelihood declined rapidly as the radius was increased. In contrast, the likelihood was almost constant for a source radius between 0 and 5 pixels when fitting to the WR 147 data. (i.e. for a circular source up to a radius of 0.66″). This contrast in behaviour again supports the inference that WR 147 is extended. We therefore conclude that WR 147 is resolved at X-ray energies, and note that to the best of our knowledge this is the only stellar system where this is the case.

While the HRC-I has poor spectral resolution, previous ASCA data (Skinner et al. SINZ1999 (1999)) determined that there were essentially no X-ray photons from WR 147 with energies between 0.4-1.0 keV. Since the extinction by dust towards WR 147 is very high, we conclude that there essentially all X-ray photons with energies below 1.0 keV are absorbed. It is therefore highly likely that (at least the majority of) the emission detected in the HRC-I is from the wind-wind collision zone, and we again note consistency with our conclusion that we are seeing extended emission from WR 147.

## 3 Theoretical X-ray Emission Maps

Based on the above conclusions, we now explore the feasibility of using X-ray imaging to constrain some of the fundamental parameters of this system. This involves computing a grid of synthetic emission maps from hydrodynamical calculations of the wind-wind collision. Since there is some small possibility that each star is also contributing to the observed emission, we also attempt to determine the relative luminosities of each of the three possible components (i.e. each star plus the wind-wind collision).

### 3.1 Estimates of the Wind Parameters

To estimate the X-ray luminosity from each component, we first need to obtain values for some essential parameters, such as the mass-loss rates of the stars.

On account of its proximity, WR 147 has been extensively studied over different energy bands, and the wind parameters of the WN8 star are well determined. Tight constraints were derived by Morris et al. (M2000 (2000)) using ground-based optical and near-infrared observations, combined with high resolution space-based ISO observations. They obtained a clumping-corrected mass-loss rate of $`\dot{M}_{\mathrm{WN}}=1.5\times 10^5\mathrm{M}_{}\mathrm{yr}^1`$ (with filling factor $`f(\mathrm{radio})10\%`$), substantially lower than derived from optical or radio observations under assumptions of homogeneity. The terminal wind velocity, obtained from helium recombination lines and fine structure transitions in the infrared, was also revised downwards to $`v_{\mathrm{}_{\mathrm{WN}}}950\mathrm{km}\mathrm{s}^1`$. The abundances of the WN8 wind (which affect our calculation of the X-ray emission from the wind-wind collision in Section 3.3) are also fairly well determined (cf. Morris et al. M2000 (2000)). From information contained in their paper we have adopted the following relative abundance by mass (sum = 1): $`\mathrm{H}=0.09`$, $`\mathrm{He}=0.9`$, $`\mathrm{C}=10^4`$, $`\mathrm{N}=0.01`$, $`\mathrm{O}=8\times 10^4`$, $`\mathrm{Ne}=1.2\times 10^3`$, $`\mathrm{Mg}=4.8\times 10^5`$, $`\mathrm{Si}=10^3`$, $`\mathrm{S}=2.1\times 10^4`$, $`\mathrm{Ar}=2.4\times 10^5`$, $`\mathrm{Ca}=4.7\times 10^5`$, $`\mathrm{Fe}=2\times 10^3`$, $`\mathrm{Ni}=8.8\times 10^6`$. For the OB companion we assume solar abundances.

As for almost every colliding winds system, the wind parameters of the companion are not well determined. It is not even possible to place a reliable upper limit on the mass-loss rate of the wind of the companion star from the non-detection of flux in the high resolution radio images, since the position of the star is on the edge of the nonthermal source where the flux gradient is very steep. Furthermore, the values of $`\eta `$ derived by W97 and N98 depend on the value of $`r_{\mathrm{OB}}`$ (cf. Usov U1992 (1992)), which is the difference of two rather similar separations, each with observational errors, and hence very uncertain. We therefore choose to average the results of W97 and N98 in the observational frame, and determine a projected stellar separation of 639 mas. Then using the projected radio separation deduced by MERLIN (575 mas), we obtain $`\eta =0.012_{0.005}^{+0.008}`$, independent of inclination.

Given this wide range, we investigate the X-ray emission properties from a series of colliding winds models with varying $`\eta `$ and inclination, $`i`$, as listed in Table 2. To reduce the number of free parameters we fix the terminal velocity of the companion star at $`1000\mathrm{km}\mathrm{s}^1`$, although there is plenty of scope for a higher velocity. With all of the other parameters fixed, this leads to the mass-loss rate of the OB star varying directly with the chosen value of $`\eta `$. As it is possible that the X-ray emission from the wind-wind collision is somewhat contaminated by emission from the individual winds, model X-ray luminosities lower than observed are to be preferred, and we have weighted our parameter space accordingly.

### 3.2 X-ray Emission from the Stars

We first attempt to estimate the X-ray luminosity from the WN and OB stars. There is a broad consensus that X-ray emission from early-type stars is generated from shocks within the stellar wind (cf. Owocki et al. OCR1988 (1988); Feldmeier et al. FPP1997 (1997)). However, it is very difficult to make reliable estimates of the intrinsic emission from each star as the variation in the observed luminosity between similar objects can be very large. Despite this, the following calculations give a rough impression of what we might expect for the intrinsic luminosity from each star. For OB stars, Sciortino et al. (S1990 (1990)) note a strong correlation between the intrinsic X-ray emission and the wind momentum rate:

$$\mathrm{log}L_\mathrm{x}=0.53_{0.12}^{+0.10}\mathrm{log}(\dot{M}v_{\mathrm{}})+17.8_{2.7}^{+3.5}$$
(2)
Substitution of the values of $`\dot{M}`$ and $`v_{\mathrm{}}`$ from Table 2 gives $`L_\mathrm{x}10^{32}\mathrm{erg}\mathrm{s}^1`$ (although with an uncertainty of $`\pm `$3 orders of magnitude). Taking the central values on the constants in Eq. 2 (and assuming a 0.01-10.0 keV band) we find that this is between 5 and 35% of the intrinsic colliding winds emission from our models (see Section 3.3).

Estimates of the intrinsic X-ray luminosity from WN8 stars have been made by Wessolowski (W1996 (1996)) and Pollock (Po1987 (1987)), and again the variance between objects can be large. This is partially caused by large uncertainties due to the small exposure durations that many of these stars were observed for. Therefore, perhaps the most accurate estimate can be made from the ROSAT observations of WR 16 (HD 86161; WN8h, v=8.44) and WR 40 (HD 96548; WN8h, v=7.85), neither of which were convincingly detected during WR 16’s 7554s PSPC exposure or WR 40’s 45386s HRI exposure, giving $`L_\mathrm{x}<10^{31}\mathrm{erg}\mathrm{s}^1`$ for WN8 stars. Thus the OB companion is more likely than the WR star to contaminate the emission from the wind-wind collision zone.

### 3.3 X-ray Emission from the Wind-Wind Collision

In this section we determine some of the basic properties of the wind collision region, using both analytical and numerical methods. We use the results from previous observations as a starting point, and therefore assume that the wind momentum ratio lies between $`0.0050.02`$ and the orbital inclination between $`3060^{}`$ (cf. W97, N98, CR99). The full range of computed models is listed in Table 2.

First we use an analytical approximation (cf. Eichler & Usov EU1993 (1993)) to estimate the half-opening angle of the contact discontinuity, measured from the line between the secondary star and the shock apex. For the models in Table 2 we find that $`\theta 31^{}`$ (models $`\mathrm{cw}\mathrm{\_}1\mathrm{cw}\mathrm{\_}3`$), $`\theta 26^{}`$ (models $`\mathrm{cw}\mathrm{\_}4\mathrm{cw}\mathrm{\_}6`$), and $`\theta 19^{}`$ (models $`\mathrm{cw}\mathrm{\_}7\mathrm{cw}\mathrm{\_}9`$).

The combined kinetic power of the two winds for the parameters in Table 2 is approximately constant at $`4.3\times 10^{36}\mathrm{erg}\mathrm{s}^1`$ (as it is dominated by the WN8 wind for which we assume fixed parameters). An indication of which wind dominates the X-ray emission can be found (to first order) by evaluating the characteristic cooling parameter, $`\chi `$, of each wind. To do this we simply make use of Eq. 8 in Stevens et al. (SBP1992 (1992)), while noting that WN8 abundances lead to a similar overall emissivity as solar abundances. Values for $`\chi _{\mathrm{WN}}`$ and $`\chi _{\mathrm{OB}}`$ are listed in Table 2, and since $`\chi _{\mathrm{WN}}`$ and $`\chi _{\mathrm{OB}}`$ are always $`1`$, the emission from the shocked winds is close to the adiabatic limit. In such circumstances, the denser wind dominates the emission (cf. Myasnikov & Zhekov MZ1993 (1993)), and we indeed find from hydrodynamical models that $`L_{\mathrm{cw},\mathrm{WN}}20L_{\mathrm{cw},\mathrm{OB}}`$. In this regard, however, the results from hydrodynamical models are in conflict with estimates from the relevant equations in Usov (U1992 (1992)), which predict that $`L_{\mathrm{cw},\mathrm{WN}}L_{\mathrm{cw},\mathrm{OB}}`$. This is a worrying revelation as these equations are widely used in the literature, and we investigate this discrepancy in a further paper (Pittard & Stevens PS2002 (2002)).

To obtain accurate estimates of the X-ray emission from the wind-wind collision, and to generate synthetic emission maps with which to compare to the Chandra data (see Section 3.4), we have computed hydrodynamical models of the wind collision, calculated using VH-1 (Blondin et al. BKFT1990 (1990)), a Lagrangian-remap version of the third-order accurate Piecewise Parabolic Method (PPM; Colella & Woodward CW1984 (1984)). The stellar winds were modelled as ideal gases with adiabatic index $`\gamma =5/3`$. Although the wind collision is largely adiabatic, for completeness we included radiative cooling via the method of operator splitting. The cooling curve for the temperature range $`4.0<\mathrm{log}T<9.0`$ was generated using the Raymond-Smith plasma code (Raymond & Smith RS1977 (1977)), which specifies an effectively thin plasma in ionization equilibrium.

The simulations were calculated with the assumption of cylindrical symmetry - the orbital period of WR 147 is likely to be of order thousands of years, so all orbital effects are negligible. The large orbital separation also implies that the winds are likely to collide at very near their terminal velocities. We therefore assume that we can treat the winds as being instantaneously accelerated to their terminal velocities at the stellar surface of each star, and do not consider radiative driving effects. For simplicity in this first investigation, we also assume that the post-shock ion and electron temperatures equalize very rapidly. While the equilibration timescale can be significant compared to the flow timescale for wide systems (e.g. WR 140 - see Zhekov & Skinner ZS2000 (2000)), the exact situation is currently unclear with the importance of possible electron heating mechanisms in collisionless shocks still being debated.

Model cw\_5 lies in the middle of our grid of simulations with $`\eta =0.012`$ and $`i=45^{}`$. The latter specifies the orbital separation as $`415/\mathrm{cos}i=587\mathrm{AU}`$, and the former the mass-loss rate of the companion as a reasonable $`1.7\times 10^7\mathrm{M}_{}\mathrm{yr}^1`$. The computations were performed using grids spanning either $`400\mathrm{x}\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}300}`$ cells ($`\mathrm{cw}\mathrm{\_}1\mathrm{cw}\mathrm{\_}6`$) or $`600\mathrm{x}\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}400}`$ cells ($`\mathrm{cw}\mathrm{\_}7\mathrm{cw}\mathrm{\_}8`$) with orbital separations of a minimum of 125 or 290 cells respectively.

In Fig. 3 we show the wind collision morphology for $`\eta =0.02`$ and $`i=45^{}`$. On account of its adiabaticity and approximately equal terminal velocities, the colliding winds region is stable to both thermal and Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities. The intrinsic emission calculated using Raymond-Smith emissivities (with appropriate abundances for the two winds) from model cw\_1 is within a factor of 2 of the measured emission (see Table 2). Since the observed luminosity possibly includes a significant contribution from intrinsic shocks in the wind of each star (cf. Owocki et al. OCR1988 (1988)), luminosities for the wind-wind collision which are slightly lower than the observed value are preferred.

### 3.4 Synthetic Images

To help to determine if the morphology seen in Fig. 2 is the result of colliding winds emission we have calculated theoretical X-ray images using the hydrodynamical models as input data.

We would normally need to know which star is in front, as the stellar winds are themselves strong absorbers of X-rays. However, as a result of the long orbital period of WR 147, its orbital elements are unknown, and we do not know which star is in front. Nevertheless, this is not problematical because in WR 147 the absorption by the winds is actually very low (a rough estimate of the wind absorption along a line of sight through the WR wind to the region of wind collision gives $`N_\mathrm{H}2\times 10^{19}\mathrm{cm}^2`$ cf. Usov U1992 (1992)). The low wind column is a direct consequence of the wide separation of the stars and the fact that the sightline to the wind collision region passes through the outermost, least dense regions of the winds. Therefore we can effectively ignore the exact direction of the line of sight into the system, which considerably simplifies the calculation of synthetic images of the wind-wind collision.

As the absorption from spherical winds is negligible, we assume that the total column to WR 147 ($`N_\mathrm{H}=2.2\times 10^{22}\mathrm{cm}^2`$; Skinner et al. SINZ1999 (1999)) is independent of orientation. It is well known that the WR stars in Cyg OB2 suffer more reddening than would be normally expected. A correlation between stellar luminosity and reddening (Reddish R1967 (1967)) suggests that some of the reddening is circumstellar, possibly left over from star formation. For the extinction we use Morrison & McCammon (MM1983 (1983)) cross-sections.

As noted in the previous section, we find that the combined intrinsic spectrum is dominated by the shocked WN8 wind, so for simplicity we use WN8 emissivities for both winds. As $`L_{\mathrm{cw},\mathrm{WN}}L_{\mathrm{cw},\mathrm{OB}}`$, this has little effect on the resulting emission. We also incorporate the HRC-I effective area from data distributed with the PIMMS source code, and assume a distance of 650 pc (Morris et al. M2000 (2000)). The size in degrees of each cell in the hydrodynamic grid varies with each model (e.g. for model cw\_2 each cell is $`2.142\times 10^6`$ degrees square). Each HRC-I pixel is $`3.66\times 10^5`$ degrees square, so for model cw\_2 each HRC-I pixel covers the same area of sky as 292 hydrodynamic cells. We have therefore rebinned the synthetic images to the same scale as the HRC-I pixels, and have positioned the WR star at coordinates ($`\mathrm{20\hspace{0.33em}36\hspace{0.33em}43.64},+\mathrm{40\hspace{0.33em}21\hspace{0.33em}07.4}`$), to match the centroid position of the radio contours in Fig. 2. The companion star has been set at a position angle of $`351^{}`$ from the WR-star (cf. W97 and N98). All images are convolved with a Gaussian profile of $`0.4\mathrm{}`$ FWHM to approximate the HRC-I PSF.

Fig. 4 shows the synthetic images from each hydrodynamic model assuming a 5 ksec exposure. For ease of comparison, each image has the same field of view as Fig. 2 and the same contour levels (i.e. contours linearly spaced by 0.366 cts). The number of counts in each image is listed in Table 2. The contours of the actual observation in Fig. 2 have a small additional broadening through our use of CSMOOTH, which is estimated to result in a total net smoothing of approximately $`0.42\mathrm{}`$ FWHM. Therefore this should not overly affect the comparison. The offset mentioned in Sec. 2 has again been applied.

Of immediate note is the gratifying fact that the predicted FWHM from the synthetic images ($`0.70.8\mathrm{}`$) is in rough agreement with the value inferred from the data in Sec. 2. We also note that it appears to correlate with $`\eta `$ and $`i`$. The range in model luminosity is apparent from the number and extent of the contour levels in each image, and it is evident that model cw\_1 is too bright and model cw\_9 too faint. Because of the self-consistent generation of each model, the position of the peak emission lies at approximately the same coordinates in each image. However, the contours appear more circular and more limb brightened for higher values of the system inclination, $`i`$ (see also Fig. 5). For instance, models cw\_3 and cw\_4 have essentially the same count rate, yet the emission from model cw\_4 is much more concentrated as witnessed by its larger number of contours.

The difference in the concentration of the emission between the models is best illustrated through profiles across the shock cone as shown in Fig. 5. The profile is clearly broader with increased $`\eta `$ and increased $`i`$. While this width can only be used in comparison with observations to determine some combination of $`\eta `$ and $`i`$ (they cannot be determined independently from this comparison alone), it is perhaps possible for these to be uniquely determined if further additional comparisons between the models and the data are made. For instance, the normalization of the profile is dependent on the X-ray luminosity from the colliding WN8 wind, since the shocked WR wind dominates the total colliding winds X-ray luminosity. With fixed values for $`\dot{M}_{\mathrm{WN}}`$ and $`v_{\mathrm{}_{\mathrm{WN}}}`$, and since the shocked WN8 wind is largely adiabatic, $`L_{\mathrm{cw}}f/D`$. Here $`f`$ is a measure of the shape of the wind-wind collision (and so is a function of $`\eta `$), and the separation of the stars, $`D_{\mathrm{sep}}`$, is related to the seperation on the sky, $`D_{\mathrm{sky}}`$, by $`D_{\mathrm{sep}}=D_{\mathrm{sky}}/\mathrm{sin}i`$. Hence $`L_{\mathrm{cw}}`$ is a (complicated) function of $`\eta `$ and $`i`$.

The width of the emission and the luminosity therefore yield two constraints on two unknowns, and in principle $`\eta `$ and $`i`$ may be determined. We note that the observed circularity of the emission also appears to vary, and it may be possible to use this as an additional constraint in the determination of these parameters. Due to the weakness of the emission from the shocked OB wind, it is, however, clearly not possible to separately determine $`\dot{M}_{\mathrm{OB}}`$ and $`v_{\mathrm{}_{\mathrm{OB}}}`$ from X-ray observations.

From the contour maps in Fig. 4 we see that model cw\_5 has 5 contour levels, in good agreement with the number of levels in Fig. 2. However, the number of counts in the synthetic image is only 45, approximately one third of the counts in the actual data. Although the peak brightness is approximately correct, the synthetic image is significantly more compact than the actual data. In particular the synthetic emission does not extend as far south as the position of the WN8 star, whereas the actual X-ray emission clearly does. For comparison, the lowest contour of model cw\_3 extends approximately the same distance in RA as model cw\_5, but further in DEC (+40 21 07.58 to +40 21 08.59).

The intrinsic luminosity of model cw\_5 is $`63`$% of the ASCA value, whereas the number of simulated HRC-I counts for a 5 ksec exposure is only $`32`$% of the actual number of HRC-I counts. Therefore, the HRC-I count rate from models cw\_1 to cw\_9 is underestimated. This suggests that either: i) the simulated spectrum is too hard (from comparing the collecting area of ASCA SIS with Chandra HRC-I as a function of energy), or ii) simple fits to the ASCA SIS spectum return a value for the characteristic absorption column that is higher than the actual value. These two possibilities can each be influenced in two ways. The spectrum could be softened by reducing the terminal velocity of the WR star (since the emission from the shocked companion wind is insignificant its terminal velocity is irrelevant). However, this is a fairly well defined parameter (see Morris et al. M2000 (2000)). Alternatively, the spectrum could be softened if one or both stars contributed comparable luminosity (to the wind-wind collision) through emission from intrinsic shocks in their winds, since it is well known that such emission is generally softer than emission from colliding winds. Adressing point ii), we note that an overestimate of the absorbing column would be consistent with the degradation of the SIS detectors onboard ASCA (see Pittard et al. Pi2000 (2000)). One must also be careful interpreting ‘characteristic values’ when fitting single- or two-temperature models to multi-temperature plasmas (cf. Strickland & Stevens SS1998 (1998)). However, estimates from the visual extinction give $`N_\mathrm{H}=2.5\pm 0.4\times 10^{22}\mathrm{cm}^2`$, so there doesn’t seem to be much room to maneuver in this regard.

It is tempting to conclude from the above discussion, and the fact that the X-ray flux in Fig. 2 is more extended in a north-south direction than predicted by any of the synthetic images in Fig. 4, that the most likely cause for this discrepency is the softening of the X-ray spectrum by comparable intrinsic emission from the stars. If true, and if the contamination is significant, it would seem that there is little hope that $`\eta `$ and $`i`$ can be determined. While this would be disappointing for obvious reasons, we note that the S/N of the bottom data contour in Fig. 2 is very poor, and caution against this potential over-interpretation. Since the absorption is so high towards WR 147, it is also expected that essentially all of the X-ray photons from the individual stars (which are softer than those from the wind-wind collision) will be absorbed. On the other hand, it is indeed possible that we are detecting the few photons in the high energy tail of the stellar emission.

We continue our analysis by performing a maximum likelihood fit of our models against the data. We find that the three models with $`\eta =0.02`$ are most favoured, and that the general trend is for $`i=60^{}`$ to also be favoured. Model cw\_3 appears to be preferred over the others because its contours are simultaneously broad (as suggested by the East-West extension of the data in Fig. 2) and not too concentrated (which, for example, counts against model cw\_1). The quality of our data does not warrant further detailed fitting, but there is clearly some promise that a future (deeper) observation could be used to perform a consistency check on the best-fit parameter range determined by W97, N98, and CR99.

Since we are unable to completely rule out the possibility of contamination by stellar wind photons we have also examined the effect of adding X-ray emission at the positions of the stars, where the resultant simulated image has again been smoothed by a suitable Gaussian. Fig. 6 shows the contours for differing ratios between the three components based on model cw\_3, with a small adjustment in the normalization of the predicted colliding winds emission. Table 3 specifies the ratio of the individual contributions. Again the actual data and the position of the stars are superimposed.

It is immediately obvious from Fig. 6 that the simulated emission is still too concentrated. However, it does become more extended, and in particular the addition of emission from the WR star spreads the contours much further south to give qualitative agreement with the actual data. The addition of stellar contributions slightly improves the fitted likelihood in all 3 cases, although by a similar amount each time such that it is not clear which luminosity ratio is favoured.

The biggest problem between the data and our models is a lack of emission in our models at declinations greater than approximately $`+\mathrm{40\hspace{0.33em}21\hspace{0.33em}08.6}`$. This difference may be due to the incorrect alignment of the X-ray and radio data, the poor S/N of the lower contour levels, the emission from the individual stellar winds extending further from the stars than expected, or because our models do not adequately represent the actual emission from the wind collision region.

## 4 Conclusions

The HRC-I X-ray maps presented in this paper show evidence for the first direct (i.e. spatially resolved) detection of X-ray emission from the wind-wind collision zone of a massive early-type binary. The data from WR 147 has a FWHM of $`0.8\mathrm{}`$, roughly double that of the PSF. Models of the wind collision zone are also in rough quantitative agreement, and in particular predict a FWHM consistent with that measured. To our knowledge this is the first time that X-ray emission has been resolved in a stellar system.

A future exposure of longer duration is necessary to accurately align the X-ray and optical/radio frames, to potentially constrain the inclination and wind momentum ratio, to determine if the angular scale of the observed emission is consistent with models of the wind collision, and to determine the exact contribution of the individual stars to the X-ray emission. Since the shocked WN8 wind dominates the colliding winds X-ray emission, it is unlikely that separate values for $`\dot{M}_{\mathrm{OB}}`$ and $`v_{\mathrm{}_{\mathrm{OB}}}`$ can be determined from X-ray observations of this system.

Finally, we note the discovery that there is sometimes a discrepancy between estimates of the X-ray luminosity ratio of the shocked winds computed using the equations in Usov (U1992 (1992)) and calculations directly from hydrodynamic simulations. While the ease of application of the elegant equations in Usov (U1992 (1992)) have led to their widespread use, this issue is examined in more detail in a further paper (Pittard & Stevens PS2002 (2002)).

###### Acknowledgements.

JMP would like to thank PPARC for the funding of a PDRA position, and D. Strickland for use of his image generating program. We gratefully acknowledge the efforts of the Chandra team, in particular on the spectral resolution of the HRC and in determining the spatial extent of a detected source. We would also like to thank the referee K. Gayley for his detailed critique, which led to significant improvements in the final manuscript. This work has made use of NASA’s Astrophysics Data System Abstract Service.


text:
# A disintegrating cosmic string

## 1 Introduction

An exact solution of Einstein’s equations is known  which describes a snapping cosmic string. The string is represented by Minkowski space minus a wedge, the deficit angle representing a string of constant tension. At some event, the string snaps and the two ends move apart at the speed of light. This generates an impulsive spherical gravitational wave, inside which the Minkowski space is complete (i.e. there is no string).

It has recently been argued  that this solution may be considered as the impulsive limit of the Robinson–Trautman family of type N solutions  in spite of the fact that, in a convenient coordinate system, the metric in this impulsive limit includes the product of two delta distributions. This interpretation is here confirmed by investigating the physical interpretation of a sandwich wave constructed from a particular member of this family of solutions.

Specifically, we present a particular Robinson–Trautman solution in which the gravitational wave is non-zero only for a finite interval. It is well known that these waves have spherical wavefronts. Behind the wave, in this case, is an expanding spherical region of Minkowski space. However, ahead of the spherical shock front, the Minkowski space contains a cosmic string. In the Robinson–Trautman interval, there is also a topological singularity in which the initial deficit angle reduces uniformly to zero through the wave. This solution is therefore interpreted as describing a cosmic string which, rather than snapping, disintegrates to zero in a finite time, and in which the regions of disintegration propagate along the string with the speed of light.

## 2 The Robinson–Trautman type N solutions

The Robinson–Trautman solutions of Petrov type N (which are necessarily vacuum) with zero cosmological constant are given by the line element

$$\mathrm{d}s^2=2\mathrm{d}u\mathrm{d}r+\left[K(u)2r(\mathrm{log}P)_u\right]\mathrm{d}u^22\frac{r^2}{P^2}\mathrm{d}\zeta \mathrm{d}\overline{\zeta }.$$
(1)
where $`K(u)`$ can be interpreted as the Gaussian curvature of the 2-surfaces $`2P^2\mathrm{d}\zeta \mathrm{d}\overline{\zeta }`$, and $`P(u,\zeta ,\overline{\zeta })`$ is a solution of the equation

$$2P^2_\zeta _{\overline{\zeta }}(\mathrm{log}P)=K(u).$$
(2)
A general solution of this equation can be expressed as

$$P=\left(1+\frac{1}{2}KF\overline{F}\right)\left(F_\zeta \overline{F}_{\overline{\zeta }}\right)^{1/2},$$
(3)
where $`F=F(u,\zeta )`$ is an arbitrary complex function of $`u`$ and $`\zeta `$, holomorphic in $`\zeta `$. Also, it is always possible to use a coordinate transformation to put $`K=1,0,+1`$. Finally, it can be shown that, using a natural tetrad, the only remaining component of the Weyl tensor is given by

$$\overline{\mathrm{\Psi }}_4=\frac{1}{r}\left[P^2\left(\mathrm{log}P\right)_{u\zeta }\right]_\zeta =\frac{P^2}{2r}F_\zeta \left[\frac{1}{F_\zeta }\left(\mathrm{log}F_\zeta \right)_{u\zeta }\right]_\zeta .$$
(4)
These solutions always contain singular points on each wave surface, forming singular lines, but these are generally not well understood.

We will concentrate here on the case in which $`K=1`$, and first consider the Minkowski background. In this case, we can put $`F=\zeta `$, which is then a stereographic coordinate. Putting $`\zeta =\sqrt{2}\mathrm{cot}\frac{\theta }{2}e^{i\varphi }`$ and $`u=tr`$, the metric (1) takes the form

$$\mathrm{d}s^2=\mathrm{d}t^2\mathrm{d}r^2r^2(\mathrm{d}\theta ^2+\mathrm{sin}^2\theta \mathrm{d}\varphi ^2),$$
(5)
from which it is clear that the wave surfaces $`u=`$ const. are expanding concentric spheres.

Let us also consider a family of solutions in which $`F=\zeta ^{c+au}`$, where $`c`$ and $`a`$ are constants. This represents an expanding gravitational wave with amplitude proportional to $`a`$. On any wave surface $`u=`$ const., $`Z=\zeta ^{c+au}`$ represents the stereographic coordinate. However, if $`\mathrm{arg}\zeta [0,2\pi )`$, $`Z`$ includes an excess angle of $`(c+au1)2\pi `$.

## 3 A sandwich Robinson–Trautman wave

Let us now use the above solution with $`K=1`$ to construct a sandwich gravitational wave.

First, let us take the region inside some expanding circle $`u=b`$ to be part of Minkowski space (5). This is a particular case of the Robinson–Trautman metric (1) with $`F=\zeta `$ and $`\mathrm{arg}\zeta [0,2\pi )`$. Then, let us consider a Robinson–Trautman wave in the region $`0ub`$ with $`F=\zeta ^{c+au}`$, as shown in figure 1. In this case, $`b`$ represents the duration of the wave. In order for the solution to be continuous at $`u=b`$, it is necessary that $`c=1ab`$. Finally, let us consider the region ahead of the wave, in which $`u<0`$, also to be part of Minkowski space. For this to be continuous on the wavefront $`u=0`$, it is necessary that this region is represented by the metric (1) with $`F=\zeta ^{1ab}`$. According to the above calculation, it can be seen that this part of Minkowski space has a deficit angle given by $`2\pi ab`$.

## 4 Conclusion

As described above, we have constructed a very simple sandwich Robinson–Trautman wave by putting

$$F(u,\zeta )=\{\begin{array}{ccc}\zeta ^{1ab}\hfill & \mathrm{for}u<0& \\ \multicolumn{3}{c}{}\\ \zeta ^{1a(bu)}\hfill & \mathrm{for}0ub& \\ \multicolumn{3}{c}{}\\ \zeta \hfill & \mathrm{for}u>b& \end{array}$$
(6)
with $`\mathrm{arg}\zeta [0,2\pi )`$. This wave is of type N for $`0ub`$ with

$$\overline{\mathrm{\Psi }}_4=\frac{a\left(1+\frac{1}{2}(\zeta \overline{\zeta })^{1a(bu)}\right)^2}{2\left(1a(bu)\right)r\zeta ^2}(\zeta \overline{\zeta })^{a(bu)}.$$
(7)
which is unbounded at both poles ($`\theta =0,\pi `$) representing the continuations of the strings through the gravitational wave region.

This solution represents a snapping cosmic string in a Minkowski background in which the tension (deficit angle) of the string reduces uniformly to zero over a finite interval of retarded time. This decay of the cosmic string may be considered to generate the gravitational wave.

The above solution is obviously not complete in the sense that the disintegration of the string does not follow from field equations and initial data. Moreover, the solution above does not contain its own time reverse, as this would include a region in which the ingoing and outgoing waves would interact. However, if some external reason is given for a string to break, the above solution could describe its subsequent development.

Similar solutions can easily be constructed. For example, $`a`$ could be negative, and a string could occur behind the wave rather than in front of it. Also, a string could be generated and then destroyed, although for this, the energies associated with the string and the wave would need to be explained. In general it is known that, for a Robinson–Trautman type N solution, some singularities must occur due to the nature of the holomorphic function $`F(u,\zeta )`$. The above example shows that these singularities may be associated with string-like structures. The development or decay of such structures may be considered to generate the waves, but this should really be associated with a complete theory for the string.

As well as describing an interesting physical situation, the above solution appears to give some insight into the character of the singularities that are known to occur in Robinson–Trautman type N solutions. Further, since this solution clearly reduces to the known solution for a snapping string with an impulsive gravitational wave in the limit as $`b0`$, while $`ab`$ remains finite, this also confirms the interpretation of the impulsive Robinson–Trautman solutions given previously .