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# A Limit on the Cosmological Mass Density and Power Spectrum from the Rotation Curves of Low Surface Brightness Galaxies

## 1 Introduction

There has been considerable recent interest in the inner structure of dark matter halos. Simulations of structure formation with cold dark matter (CDM) have advanced to the point where they are able to predict the density profile of dark matter halos (e.g., Navarro, Frenk, & White 1997; hereafter NFW). The predicted form of these NFW halos is fairly universal, with the central halo concentrations depending upon the density of the universe at the time of halo formation. This depends on the cosmology, so a constraint on halo concentrations translates into one on cosmological parameters.

The rotation curves of spiral galaxies provide accurate tracers of the combined potential of dark and luminous mass. As such, they should provide a measure of concentration which can be mapped to cosmology. Unfortunately, the simulations provide accurate predictions only for the dark matter. Luminous mass can be a significant fraction of the total mass at small radii in bright spirals, making it difficult to extract a measure of the dark-only mass which simulations predict.

Fortunately, there is a class of dark matter dominated, low surface brightness (LSB) galaxies ideally suited for this experiment. The luminous mass of these objects is very diffuse, greatly reducing the impact of the stellar mass on the inferred halo parameters (e.g., de Blok & McGaugh 1997). In these systems, the luminous mass merely provides a convenient tracer of the dominant dark mass.

Useful constraints on the dark matter distribution require accurate, high resolution data. McGaugh, Rubin, & de Blok (2001) present a large sample of rotation curves for LSB galaxies with resolution sufficient to constrain the NFW concentration parameter. We have modeled these in detail (de Blok, McGaugh, & Rubin 2001; hereafter BMR). Further such data have been obtained by de Blok & Bosma (2002; hereafter BB). In this paper, we use the results of BMR and BB to obtain a constraint on cosmology.

BMR and BB find that cuspy NFW halos provide a poor description of the data. The most obvious interpretation is that real dark matter halos do not have the cusps. Halo models with constant density cores are more viable.

Nonetheless, cuspy halos do seem to be the generic prediction of CDM simulations, whereas soft-core isothermal halos enjoy no such theoretical basis or cosmological context. Moreover, it is often possible to find NFW fits to the rotation curves of individual galaxies, even if they are formally worse than isothermal halo fits. There is therefore some reason to persist with NFW halos despite the substantial observational evidence against them. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the consequences for cosmology if we insist that dark matter halos must have the cuspy NFW form.

In §2 we review the data, its interpretation, and the applicability of the NFW form. In §3 we discuss the relation of CDM halos to cosmological parameters and combine this with observations to place limits on cosmology. The implications of these limits are discussed in §4, as are some possible ways out. Conclusions are given in §5.

## 2 Data

The data we use here are the NFW fits to the high resolution hybrid H$`\alpha `$-Hi rotation curves of LSB galaxies described by BMR and BB. These are based on recent optical data (McGaugh et al. 2001; BB) combined with Hi data (van der Hulst et al. 1993; de Blok, McGaugh, & van der Hulst 1996; Swaters et al. 2002a) in order to optimize both the resolution and the radial extent of the data (see BMR). The observed rate of rise of these rotation curves is rather gradual compared to the rate of rise predicted by NFW halos for a broad range of plausible cosmologies (Fig. 1).

It was noted some time ago that the solid body nature of the rotation curves of low luminosity galaxies posed serious difficulties for cuspy halos (Moore 1994; Flores & Primack 1994; McGaugh & de Blok 1998a). A possible explanation offered for this was that the 21 cm data were adversely affected by beam smearing (van den Bosch et al. 2000). This might diffuse away the sharp signature of a cuspy halo, but is no guarantee that a cusp is present (van den Bosch & Swaters 2001).

The issue of beam smearing can be addressed by improving the resolution of the observations. McGaugh et al. (2001) and BB obtained H$`\alpha `$ long slit data with 1” - 2” spatial resolution. This improves on the previous 21 cm data by more than an order of magnitude. For the most part, the high resolution optical data confirms the gradual rate of rise of the rotation curves of LSB galaxies which had previously been indicated by the 21 cm data. Reports of the severity of beam smearing have been greatly exaggerated.

This is not to say that beam smearing was insignificant in all cases; there are certainly a few where it is apparent. However, it was not pervasive enough to hide the very distinctive signature of the cusps which are predicted for halos in the standard $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$CDM cosmology. Moreover, the objections of McGaugh & de Blok (1998a,b) to the CDM explanation for rotation curves were not based on detailed NFW fits to 21 cm data, but rather on the systematics of the shapes of rotation curves. These are well predicted by the light distribution, even in LSB galaxies where the luminous mass is insignificant. The cases where beam smearing was significant (e.g., F574-1: Swaters, Madore, & Trewhella 2000) had been discrepant from these relations; the improved optical data remedy this. This makes the problems with CDM discussed by McGaugh & de Blok (1998a) more severe, not less.

BMR and BB show that flat core, isothermal halos always provide a better description of the data than do NFW halos. There is a remarkable unanimity of results on this point. All high resolution rotation curve data show a strong preference for soft cores (Marchesini et al. 2002; Bolatto et al. 2002; Blais-Oullette et al. 2001; Salucci 2001; Borriello & Salucci 2001; Côté et al. 2000). So far as we are aware, there is no contradictory observational evidence which might prefer cuspy halos in galaxies which are dark matter dominated.

There are claims (e.g., Jimenez, Verde, & Oh 2002) that cuspy halos might do as well as halos with soft cores in high surface brightness (HSB) galaxies, but these are not obviously dark matter dominated (e.g., Palunas & Williams 2000). The role of stellar mass is a great impediment to any conclusions about cuspy halos in HSB galaxies. In cases where constraints beyond the rotation curve can be placed on stellar mass, it is very difficult to fit cuspy halos (e.g., Weiner, Sellwood, & Williams 2001). This is especially true in the Milky Way where many lines of evidence exclude a cuspy halo (Binney & Evans 2001; Bissantz & Gerhard 2001). For LSB galaxies, Jimenez et al. (2002) confirm the results of BMR.

The preference of the data for soft cores in LSB galaxies can no longer be attributed to resolution effects as suggested by van den Bosch et al. (2000). There are now many well resolved rotation curves for dark matter dominated galaxies from a number of independent sources. Contrary to the expectations of beam-smearing arguments, the best resolved rotation curves prove to be the least consistent with cuspy halos (de Blok et al. 2001). It is unlikely that any significant systematic effect afflicts the optical data as the rotation curves obtained for the same galaxies by independent observers are in good agreement (McGaugh et al. 2001; BB).

Given the strong observational evidence against cuspy halos, it is perhaps puzzling that their use persists. This is largely attributable to the convergence of many theoretical results: cuspy halos do appear to be a fundamental prediction of CDM (see below). Moreover, while NFW fits to rotation curve data are distinctly inferior to fits with isothermal halos, it is usually possible to find some combination of NFW parameters which more or less go through the data (Fig. 1). Given the importance of cuspy halos to the prevailing paradigm, and the lack of theoretical basis for halos with soft cores, the preference of the data for the latter might not, in itself, be seen as completely disastrous.

Fortunately, it is possible to apply further tests. In CDM models the parameters of NFW halos have a direct relation to cosmology. Not only must the NFW form fit (however crudely) individual rotation curves, but the statistics of the parameters of these fits must be consistent with the cosmology which gave rise to them. The work of BMR and BB provides, for the first time, a large, homogeneous sample of precise, high spatial resolution rotation curve data for dark matter dominated LSB galaxies to which this test can be applied. Here, we follow through on this to see what these data imply for cosmology.

## 3 Halo Parameters and Cosmology

### 3.1 Theoretical Framework: NFW Halos

Cosmological simulations make clear predictions about the radial density distribution of CDM halos (e.g., NFW). These have a simple form which has come to be known as the NFW halo. An NFW halo is specified by two parameters: a concentration $`c`$ and a scale such as the circular velocity at the virial radius, $`V_{200}`$. The rotation curve due to an NFW halo is

$$V_c^2(x)=V_{200}^2\frac{\mathrm{ln}(1+cx)cx(1+cx)^1}{x[\mathrm{ln}(1+c)c(1+c)^1]},$$
(1)
where $`x=R/R_{200}`$ and $`R_{200}`$ (in kpc) $`=V_{200}h^1`$ (in $`\text{km}\text{s}^1`$). Fits of this form to rotation curves are very sensitive to the concentration parameter $`c`$, which itself depends on cosmological parameters.

The precise form of the inner density profile is critical to the result, so this warrants further examination. The profiles of halos predicted by CDM have now been studied by many groups (Dubinski 1994; Cole & Lacey 1996; NFW; Tormen, Bouchet, & White 1997; Moore et al. 1998, 1999; Tissera & Dominguez-Tenreiro 1998; Nusser & Sheth 1998; Syer & White 1998; Avila-Reese, Firmiani, & Hernandez 1998; Salvador-Śole, Solanes, & Manrique 1998; Jing 2000; Jing & Suto 2000; Kull 1999). These investigations all either concur with the NFW halo profile, or find an even steeper cusp in the inner parts. If we parameterize the inner slope of the density profile by $`\gamma `$ so that $`\rho r^\gamma `$, then the NFW result is $`\gamma =1`$. Moore et al. (1998, 1999) find a steeper inner slope ($`\gamma =1.5`$) from high resolution simulations. It is unclear whether this difference in $`\gamma `$ is significant, or more a matter of the choice of fitting function. If the inner slope is very steep ($`\gamma >1`$), more severe limits would result than those we derive here for the NFW case. Given this, and the clear mapping between NFW halo parameters and cosmological ones, we restrict the analysis to the NFW case ($`\gamma =1`$) as the conservative limit.

There are some differences between these theoretical studies, but from an observational perspective these are unimportant. The one real exception to the many studies predicting $`\gamma 1`$ is the study of Kravtsov et al. (1998). They find111In addition to their analysis of their simulations, Kravtsov et al. (1998) examined the Hi data available at the time, and found that it indicated $`\gamma 0.2`$. This same value is found in subsequent optical data (de Blok et al. 2001). The agreement between these results is another indication that systematic errors are not significant. a shallower inner halo slope than NFW, with $`\gamma 0.4`$. This value is significantly discrepant from other studies, and was estimated perilously close to the limits of the simulations. These workers have now retracted the claim of shallow inner halo profiles (Klypin et al. 2001), and concur with other studies that the predicted slope is $`\gamma 1`$.

If we treat $`\gamma `$ as a free parameter, the data give a median $`\gamma 0.2`$, with essentially all well resolved data being consistent with $`\gamma =0`$ (de Blok et al. 2001). Though it is possible to fit NFW halos to much of the data, it is not the form favored by the data (§2). If CDM simulations produced a halo with a soft core, there would be little implication for cosmology. However, the vast majority of theoretical work on this subject predicts $`\gamma 1`$, with no room to treat $`\gamma `$ as a free parameter. If we accept this as the correct prediction of CDM, then the observed distribution of concentrations places interesting limits on cosmology.

### 3.2 The Halo Concentration–Cosmology Connection

The characteristic concentration of CDM halos depends on the density of the universe at the time of halo formation (NFW). This in turn depends on the density parameter ($`\mathrm{\Omega }_m`$), the distance scale ($`h`$), and the amplitude of the power spectrum on the relevant scales. The latter depends on both the normalization ($`\sigma _8`$) and shape of the power spectrum.

NFW provide a prescription which relates halo parameters to the cosmology in which they form. This is encapsulated by the program CHARDEN provided by Navarro (private communication). For a specified halo mass and set of cosmological parameters, CHARDEN gives the concentration and other parameters. We use CHARDEN to make several hundred realizations of the mean concentration parameter for a variety of cosmologies. The grid of realizations samples parameters in the ranges $`0.1<\mathrm{\Omega }_m<0.5`$, $`0.45<h<0.85`$, $`0.2<\sigma _8<2`$, and $`0.75<n<1.25`$, where $`n`$ is the scalar spectral index of the power spectrum. We consider only flat ($`\mathrm{\Omega }_m+\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda }=1`$) cosmologies. Open cosmologies give somewhat higher concentrations, all other things being equal. Since LSB galaxies require rather low concentrations, the constraints on an open cosmology would be tighter.

The results from CHARDEN are shown in Fig. 2, which plots the concentration parameter $`c`$ as a function of cosmic parameters. The concentration also depends weakly on halo mass, which could be plotted as a third axis. We show the case for $`V_{200}=163`$ $`\text{km}\text{s}^1`$ ($`M=10^{12}M_{}`$). This mass scale is appropriate to bright galaxies, and is somewhat higher than is typical for the LSB galaxies in our sample. The correlation of $`c`$ with $`V_{200}`$ goes in the sense that $`c`$ is higher for lower $`V_{200}`$, so adopting this mass scale for mapping between theory and observation is a conservative choice. That is, a lower mass halo more appropriate for an LSB galaxy would have a higher concentration. When required to match the low observed concentrations, a more stringent constraint on cosmology would be implied.

The top panel of Fig. 2 shows the dependence of $`c`$ on the shape parameter $`\mathrm{\Gamma }`$ which to a first approximation is the product $`\mathrm{\Omega }_mh`$. Here we use the common fitting formula

$$\mathrm{\Gamma }=\mathrm{\Omega }_mhe^{\left(\mathrm{\Omega }_b+\sqrt{2h}\frac{\mathrm{\Omega }_b}{\mathrm{\Omega }_m}\right)}0.32\left(n^11\right)$$
(2)
(e.g., White et al. 1996). The baryon density $`\mathrm{\Omega }_b`$ acts as small correction factor to the shape of the power spectrum for a given $`\mathrm{\Omega }_mh`$. An increase in $`\mathrm{\Omega }_b`$ depresses the relative amount of power on smaller scales, thus acting to lower halo concentrations. A similar effect can be obtained by tilting the spectrum ($`n<1`$), but these are rather weak effects compared to $`\mathrm{\Omega }_mh`$.

There is a clear call for a second parameter in the top panel of Fig. 2. This is the normalization of the power spectrum $`\sigma _8`$ (middle panel). The combination $`\sigma _8\mathrm{\Gamma }`$ seems to account for most components of the dependence of halo concentration on cosmology. There does remain some stiration at low concentration and more scatter than one would like. Motivated by the fact that the relevant dependence on the mass density in many structure formation problems is $`\mathrm{\Omega }_m^{0.6}`$, we define a modified shape parameter $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_{0.6}`$:

$$\mathrm{\Gamma }_{0.6}=\mathrm{\Omega }_m^{0.6}he^{\left(\mathrm{\Omega }_b+\sqrt{2h}\frac{\mathrm{\Omega }_b}{\mathrm{\Omega }_m}\right)}0.32\left(n^11\right).$$
(3)
This is identical to the usual shape parameter with the exception of the power of $`\mathrm{\Omega }_m`$. The result is a linear dependence of halo concentration on the product $`\sigma _8\mathrm{\Gamma }_{0.6}`$ (bottom panel of Fig. 2).

The realizations in the bottom panel of Fig. 2 are well described by the relation

$$c_{\mathrm{\Lambda },12}=1.88+23.9\sigma _8\mathrm{\Gamma }_{0.6}$$
(4)
where $`c_{\mathrm{\Lambda },12}`$ is specific to $`10^{12}M_{}`$ NFW halos in flat $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$CDM cosmologies. The residual scatter about this relation is small, with a standard deviation of 0.084 in the ratio of realized to predicted concentration. This relation for the characteristic concentration produced by a given cosmology can be used to map the observed concentrations to a limit on cosmology (§3.4).

### 3.3 Scatter in Concentrations

Equation (4) gives the characteristic concentration of NFW halos for a given set of cosmological parameters. Of course, not all halos of a given mass are identical — some scatter is expected about the nominal concentration. This issue has been investigated in detail by Jing (2000) and Bullock et al. (2001). Both groups find a lognormal distribution of concentration parameters with $`\sigma _c=0.18`$. This apparent consistency is marred by the fact that Jing (2000) uses the natural logarithm and Bullock et al. (2001) use the base 10 logarithm so that the same value of $`\sigma _c`$ actually corresponds to a broader distribution in the latter case. Nevertheless, there does seem to be broad agreement about the form the distribution should take even if the value of $`\sigma _c`$ is not uniquely fixed by simulations.

The histogram of observed concentrations is shown in Fig. 3. These data are taken from BMR and BB for the case of minimum disk. This choice is made to maximize the number of galaxies which can be included in the analysis, and to be conservative in the sense that minimum disk fits allow larger concentrations than do fits which include stars. There are other sources of data which we do not include here in order to maintain a consistent analysis: the mass models of BMR and BB have been constructed in an identical fashion. Other data for dark matter dominated galaxies are limited in number so far, so their inclusion or exclusion makes little difference to the histogram in Fig. 3. As discussed in §2, the independent analyses which do exist are entirely consistent with the findings of BMR and BB.

The distribution in Fig. 3 is broad: there are many galaxies with low ($`c<6`$) concentrations, and some with rather high concentrations ($`c>15`$). Though these are outside the nominal range one would expect for $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$CDM, there is a well defined central peak. There is, therefore, some hope that the anticipated lognormal distribution can be fit to the data if the relevant cosmological parameters are allowed to vary, and an explanation can be found for the outlyers.

The observed distribution of concentrations is robust. Fig. 3 shows three different selections of the data: 1. all of the data of BMR and BB (54 galaxies), 2. only those galaxies (45) with tolerable NFW fits ($`\chi ^2<2`$), and 3. only those (31) with good fits ($`\chi ^2<1`$). While there are of course some detailed differences between these, the overall shape of the distribution is unaffected. The central peak is unmoved; its width varies little. The large peak of galaxies with very low concentrations ($`c<2`$) never disappears. One might have hoped that by including only the best fits, a sensible distribution would emerge, and the galaxies with unacceptably low concentrations would disappear. Unfortunately, simply having a good NFW fit is no guarantee that the halo parameters correspond to any sensible cosmology: no cosmology ever produces halos with $`c<2`$.

The failure of the data in Fig. 3 to conform to the predictions of $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$CDM is not a data quality issue (McGaugh et al. 2001; BMR; BB). Many of the galaxies with $`\chi ^2<1`$ have $`\chi ^21`$, implying that the error bars have, if anything, been overestimated. This makes the many objects with $`\chi ^2>1`$ more problematic. These are generally the better data. NFW fits with $`\chi ^2<1`$ are usually obtained when the uncertainties222$`\mathrm{\Delta }\chi ^2`$ generally favors soft cores (BMR; BB). are large, not because the data look like cuspy halos. In addition to making cuts by $`\chi ^2`$, we have also made cuts by inclination and by subjective judgement of the data quality (de Blok, Bosma, & McGaugh 2003). The results are indistinguishable from those presented here.

There are many galaxies with concentrations which are either too small or too large for $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$CDM. There may be astrophysical explanations for these outlyers. An obvious explanation for the galaxies whose concentrations are too high for $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$CDM would be that they are not entirely dark matter dominated. An appropriately massive stellar disk, when subtracted off, might leave the right amount of dark matter. One has to be careful with such a procedure, as a heavy disk implies some compression of the original (cosmological) halo, which might end up with too low a concentration if one merely aims to get the “right” concentration currently. Moreover, it might be possible to choose a stellar mass-to-light ratio which simply gives a desired result. It is for this reason that a large sample of dark matter dominated galaxies is best for this experiment.

That said, it is not obvious that plausible stellar mass-to-light ratios will reduce the implied concentrations of the high-$`c`$ outlyers. In the cases where adequate photometry is available, BMR and BB present mass models with $`M_{}/L_R=1.4M_{}/L_{}`$. In none of the cases of high concentration does the inclusion of stars of this mass-to-light ratio significantly reduce $`c`$. Implausibly large mass-to-light ratios would be required to have an impact. The excess number of high-$`c`$ galaxies may therefore pose a genuine problem.

A more severe (and certainly genuine) problem is posed by the low-$`c`$ outlyers. This can not be solved by allowing stars to have mass, as this makes matters worse. Indeed, contrary to the case of high-$`c`$ galaxies, attributing even a small mass to the stars can have a significant downwards impact on $`c`$ if it is already low in the minimum disk case. More generally, these extremely low concentration galaxies embody the soft core problem for which many explanations have been hypothesized. We therefore postpone discussion of this problem until §4.4.

### 3.4 A Limit on Cosmology

In this section we derive a limit on cosmology by requiring that the peak of the distribution of observed concentrations $`c_p`$ follow from cosmology in the manner prescribed by NFW. Extracting the optimal value of $`c_p`$ from the data is at once both straightforward and challenging. Straightforward, because the peak position in Fig. 3 is well defined, and challenging, because the data do not agree with the NFW form. Properly, we would use the $`\chi ^2(c,V_{200})`$ of the fits from BMR and BB to compute the likelihood distribution and hence the optimal $`c`$. In practice, there is essentially zero likelihood because the NFW form provides such a poor description of so much of the data. In order to do this exercise at all, we overlook this small failing of the NFW model and work directly with the raw histogram of concentrations (Fig. 3). This is a generous thing to do, as it gives credit to fits which do not really fit, and the net result remains robust because the location of $`c_p`$ is the same regardless of how the data are subdivided.

In Table 1 we give several estimations of $`c_p`$. These include eyeball fits of the lognormal distribution, and the robust statistical estimators the median and the biweight location. Formal fits with the lognormal function are ill-defined for the same reason that the likelihood can not be used directly. Nonetheless, the eyeball fits do nicely describe much of the data: allowing the lognormal form to have a large scatter333The scatter is much larger than anticipated. A large scatter in $`c`$ should have a severe impact on the scatter in the Tully-Fisher relation. That it apparently does not leads to fine-tuning problems (McGaugh & de Blok 1998a; Bullock et al. 2001). ($`\sigma _c0.6`$) provides a plausible explanation for the high-$`c`$ outlyers (while offering no explanation for the low-$`c`$ galaxies). The skew of the distribution tends to make $`c_p`$ from the lognormal fits a bit lower than the median and biweight location. The latter are useful statistics because they are robust against outlyers, though even their interpretation is open to question since the many outlyers may simply be another indication that the underlying model is inappropriate.

We can now place a limit on cosmology by equating $`c_p`$ derived from the observations with $`c_{\mathrm{\Lambda },12}`$ from equation (4). In doing so, we are making the approximation that the observed concentrations apply to $`10^{12}M_{}`$ halos rather than the particular mass scale appropriate to each individual fit. In practice this is a very good approximation because the predicted $`c`$-$`V_{200}`$ relation is very flat (NFW), so the correction to $`c`$ when projected to the $`V_{200}`$ appropriate for a given galaxy is usually smaller than the uncertainty in $`c`$. Moreover, most LSB galaxy halos should be less massive than $`10^{12}M_{}`$, so $`c_p`$ should, if anything, be compared to the higher concentrations predicted for lower mass halos.

Evaluating equation (4) with the lognormal $`c_p=5.4`$ yields $`\sigma _8\mathrm{\Gamma }_{0.6}=0.15`$. For comparison, standard $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$CDM, with $`\mathrm{\Omega }_m=0.33`$, $`h=0.66`$, $`n=1.03`$ (Netterfield et al. 2001), $`\mathrm{\Omega }_bh^2=0.02`$ (O’Meara et al. 2001), and $`\sigma _8=0.96`$ (Pierpaoli, Scott, & White 2001) gives444 For these parameters, the ordinary shape parameter is $`\mathrm{\Gamma }=0.18`$, slightly less than used by Pierpaoli et al. (2001): $`\mathrm{\Gamma }=0.23`$. $`\sigma _8\mathrm{\Gamma }_{0.6}=0.28`$. This is nearly twice the value derived here, and predicts substantially higher concentrations: $`c_{\mathrm{\Lambda },12}=8.5`$ (Fig. 3). Such concentrated halos have a very distinctive dynamical signature and would be easily recognized by current observations (de Blok et al. 2003).

If dark matter halos were well described by cuspy halos, the peak of the distribution of concentration parameters would provide a useful measurement of $`\sigma _8\mathrm{\Gamma }_{0.6}`$. However, the NFW form, upon which this analysis is based, does not provide a good description of the data (BMR; BB). Instead, halos with lower density cores are preferred. Even persisting with NFW halos as we have done here, the observations demand rather low concentrations. Not only is $`c_p`$ lower than expected, but there is also the substantial population of galaxies with $`c<2`$ which have no explanation in the cuspy halo picture. The data are telling us that dark matter halos can not be as concentrated as nominally expected. Rather than attempt to use this method to measure cosmic parameters, we ask: what cosmology could produce tolerable concentrations? This leads to an upper limit on $`\sigma _8\mathrm{\Gamma }_{0.6}`$ which is quite firm as long as the NFW picture of halo formation holds.

In order to limit cosmology to parameters which might produce suitably low concentrations, we note that 95% of our realizations have $`c/c_{\mathrm{\Lambda },12}<1.15`$. A given $`c_p`$ cannot originate from a cosmology which produces halos more concentrated than this. The largest estimate of the peak concentration from Table 1 is $`c_p=6.4`$. Multiplying this by 1.15 to allow for the residual scatter about equation (4) leads to the limit

$$c_p<7.4.$$
(5)
The corresponding limit on cosmology is

$$\sigma _8\mathrm{\Gamma }_{0.6}<0.23.$$
(6)
This is a very hard limit, as we have adopted the largest estimate of the peak location from Table 1 and hedged upwards from there. The data certainly do not indicate such a large $`c_p`$, and the true vale of $`\sigma _8\mathrm{\Gamma }_{0.6}`$ must be much less if there has been no radical redistribution of mass subsequent to halo formation.

## 4 Discussion

In this section, we discuss possible interpretations of the concentration limit on cosmology. These come in several basic flavors:

1. CDM halos must have cusps, so the stated limits hold and provide new constraints on cosmological parameters.
2. Something (e.g., feedback; modification of the nature of dark matter) eliminates cusps and thus the constraints on cosmology.
3. The picture of halo formation suggested by CDM simulations is wrong.

The bulk of the dynamical data may well prefer the last of these interpretations, potentially with drastic consequences for CDM (McGaugh & de Blok 1998a,b; de Blok & McGaugh 1998; Sanders & Verheijen 1998; Sanders 2000; Sanders & McGaugh 2002). We focus the discussion here on items (1) and (2) which have a variety of sub-flavors.

### 4.1 Assumptions

As in any study of cosmological parameters, a number of assumptions must be made. Before trying to sort out possible interpretations, it is worth examining the validity of the assumptions underlying our analysis. Everything we do here is confined to the context of the currently standard $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$CDM cosmology. In order to map the rotation curve results to cosmological parameters, we have made a number of operative assumptions:

1. The NFW halo is the correct prediction of CDM.
2. The concentration parameter maps to cosmology via the NFW prescription.
3. NFW halos provide an adequate description of the data.
4. LSB galaxies reside in typical halos.

Assumption (1) has already been discussed in §3.1, and appears certainly to be true modulo only the remaining debate over the precise slope of the inner cusp. Since $`\gamma =1`$ is at the lower limit of predicted cusp slopes, this assumption is both valid and conservative. Steeper cusps would result in more stringent limits on cosmology. If we accept (1), (2) follows.

Assumption (3), that NFW halos provide an adequate description of the rotation curve data, is the most dubious (§2). The most obvious interpretation of these data is that dark matter halos do not have cusps (de Blok et al. 2001), or do not exist at all (Sanders & McGaugh 2002). However, the point of this paper is to explore the consequences if we insist on retaining cuspy halos.

Assumption (4) is important because we treat the concentrations determined from LSB galaxy rotation curves as a measure of that produced by cosmology. If for some reason halo concentration is correlated with surface brightness, then the cosmological measure will be biased. There is little reason to suspect such a bias in theory, and none empirically.

In most modern theories of galaxy formation (e.g., Dalcanton, Spergel, & Summers 1997; Mo, Mao, & White 1998; McGaugh & de Blok 1998a; van den Bosch & Dalcanton 2000) it is the spin of the halo and not its concentration which dictates the surface brightness. Concentration may be correlated with formation epoch, and scatter in the latter may well be the dominant cause of scatter in the former (Wechsler et al. 2002). It is not unreasonable to suppose that LSB galaxies form late (McGaugh & Bothun 1994), but this does not happen in theories where spin is the dominant factor determining surface brightness. Moreover, the range of formation times discussed by Wechsler et al. (2002) is far too small to explain the range of observed concentrations.

One could of course construct a theory which imposes a correlation between concentration and surface brightness. The motivation to do this is not independent of the problems discussed here, and faces a host of other problems (discussed in detail by McGaugh & de Blok 1998a). Most importantly, such an approach runs contrary to the remarkable empirical normalcy of LSB galaxies.

In terms of their physical properties (metallicity, gas content, etc.), LSB galaxies are quite normal for their part of the luminosity function. They adhere to the same Tully-Fisher relation as do brighter galaxies (Sprayberry et al. 1995; Zwaan et al. 1995; Tully & Verheijen 1997), and to the same baryonic Tully-Fisher relation (McGaugh et al. 2000; Bell & de Jong 2001; Verheijen 2001). This is usually interpreted to mean that LSB galaxies inhabit halos which are similar to those of HSB galaxies of the same mass. Invoking a correlation between concentration and surface brightness predicts a shift in the Tully-Fisher relation between HSB and LSB galaxies which is not observed.

The empirical normalcy of LSB galaxies includes not just the normalization of their asymptotic rotation velocities (the Tully-Fisher relation), but extends also to the shapes of their rotation curves. These are quite predictable given knowledge of their luminosity distribution (e.g., Persic & Salucci 1991; de Blok & McGaugh 1998; Sanders & McGaugh 2002). This obedience555The adherence of LSB galaxies to the scaling relation for rotation curve shape is also another indication that the data do not suffer from systematic errors. to scaling relations established for HSB galaxies is a strong indication that LSB galaxies are dynamically normal. There is, therefore, no reason to suspect that assumption (4) is invalid.

### 4.2 How Firm a Limit?

Proceeding with the above assumptions, we next examine the firmness of the concentration limit on cosmology. So long as we insist on having cuspy halos, this limit is valid. Indeed, we have been quite conservative in placing it. On every occasion where there has been any room to hedge, we have done so in the direction which maximized the allowed concentration. Hedges which act in this way include:

1. The adoption of minimal disks.
2. Ignoring adiabatic contraction.
3. Ignoring the angular momentum catastrophe.
4. The use of heavy halos to predict $`c_{\mathrm{\Lambda },12}`$.
5. Ignoring the low-$`c`$ spike in the distribution.
6. Adopting the largest estimate of $`c_p`$.
7. Making a generous allowance for scatter in the $`c_{\mathrm{\Lambda },12}`$-$`\sigma _8\mathrm{\Gamma }_{0.6}`$ relation.

These combine to make the limit $`\sigma _8\mathrm{\Gamma }_{0.6}<0.23`$ both conservative and hard. Taking the best-guess value of any of these effects would lead to a lower value, in some cases by a large factor.

Item (1) is very generous. Stars do have mass, but we have pretended they do not. Consequently, the concentrations we use do not refer to the primordial dark matter halo as they should, but rather to the present dark matter halo plus the stars. Subtracting off the stars lowers $`c`$, even in LSB galaxies where dark matter domination minimizes this effect but does not entirely eliminate it.

Items (2) and (3) depend on the galaxy formation process. The natural expectation is that whatever baryons collapse to form the disk will drag along some of the dark matter (2). This will make the present-day halo more concentrated than the primordial halo which CHARDEN computes. This effect is probably modest in LSB galaxies, but should act some — in the wrong direction. Item (3) is hard to quantify (Steinmetz & Navarro 2002), but could be quite severe, and again acts in the wrong direction.

The remaining items on the above list have been discussed as they arose in the analysis, and we will not repeat this here. The point is that there are many turns where we have adopted concentrations which are, if anything, too high. The fact that fiducial $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$CDM cosmologies predict still higher concentrations emphasizes the severity of this problem.

### 4.3 Implications for Cosmology

Having reviewed our assumptions and the validity of the concentration limit, we turn now to the first flavor of possible interpretations. If we insist that galaxy halos must have cusps, the limit imposed on cosmology is unavoidable. Here we consider the implications of this limit in the context of other cosmological constraints. In a subsequent section we will address the possibility of dodging these constraints by invoking processes which might alter cusps (e.g., feedback; warm or self-interacting dark matter).

The concentration limit $`\sigma _8\mathrm{\Gamma }_{0.6}<0.23`$ excludes a significant fraction cosmological parameter space, including that occupied by our fiducial $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$CDM parameters (§3.4). In order to satisfy this limit, we need to reduce the density of the universe at the time of halo collapse. This can be accomplished by lowering the matter density directly, or by delaying halo formation by suppressing the power spectrum on galaxy scales. We examine these possibilities in turn.

#### 4.3.1 Matter Density

For a standard power spectrum and baryon density, the concentration limit excludes $`\mathrm{\Omega }_m^{0.6}h>0.28`$ (Fig. 4). This limit is fairly restrictive, excluding some parameter combinations which are otherwise viable. $`\mathrm{\Omega }_m=1`$ is right out, and even $`\mathrm{\Omega }_m0.3`$ cannot be sustained. Cuspy halos and “standard” $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$CDM are mutually exclusive.

It may be possible to salvage the $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$CDM picture with cuspy halos if the density is low. For $`h=0.7`$, the concentration limit requires $`\mathrm{\Omega }_m<0.22`$. While this is lower than usually quoted for $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$CDM, it is actually in keeping with a number of recent determinations. Bahcall et al. (2000) give $`\mathrm{\Omega }_m=0.16\pm 0.05`$. A similar number is also given by Rines et al. (2001) — $`\mathrm{\Omega }_m=0.17\pm 0.05`$, and by Hoekstra et al. (2001) — $`\mathrm{\Omega }_m=0.13\pm 0.07`$ for a flat universe. These independent determinations are consistent with the findings presented here, and may be an indication of a rather small density parameter which is acceptable to many independent data sets (Peebles 1999). However, it may be hard to simultaneously reconcile such a low matter density with the requirement for both flatness $`\mathrm{\Omega }_m+\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda }1`$ (de Bernardis et al. 2000) and the limit on the cosmological constant from gravitational lensing, $`\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda }<0.7`$ (Kochanek 1996; Cooray, Quashnock, & Miller 1999).

#### 4.3.2 Power Spectrum

If a density parameter as low as $`\mathrm{\Omega }_m<0.22`$ is not acceptable, the requirement stipulated by the concentration limit may be satisfied by a decrease in the amplitude of the power spectrum on galaxy scales. This can be achieved either by a tilt or a decrease in the normalization $`\sigma _8`$, or some combination of both. For example, for $`\mathrm{\Omega }_m=0.33`$ and $`h=0.66`$, we need $`\sigma _80.8`$ (Fig. 5). Lately there have been contradictory tugs on the value of the normalization, with a combined analysis of the 2dF and CMB data suggesting $`\sigma _80.73`$ (Lahav et al. 2002), while high multipole CBI data suggest $`\sigma _81`$ (Bond et al. 2002).

The same effect could also be achieved by tilting the power spectrum ($`n0.9`$) or by introducing a break in the power spectrum at some appropriate scale. Such behavior is contrary to the scale-free nature of CDM, but might occur with warm dark matter or an admixture of hot dark matter. This may not be necessary as a purely cosmological solution appears to be least marginally viable. A universe with a low mass density or suppressed power spectrum (or both) could satisfy the concentration limit, though it would leave open many related questions.

### 4.4 Halo Modification

This section examines the second flavor interpretation, that some mechanism alters the initially cuspy form of dark matter halos. This approach has the advantage that it might explain why galaxy observations prefer halos with soft cores to those with cusps, with little or no consequence for cosmology. It has the rather substantial disadvantage that some drastic and poorly understood effect must be invoked to alter halos, thus destroying the elegance and predictive power of the NFW paradigm.

#### 4.4.1 Feedback

The mechanism most commonly invoked in this context is feedback. This is the notion that the action of star formation, most particularly winds and supernovae from massive stars, injects sufficient mechanical energy into the interstellar medium to alter the surroundings. The hope is that such feedback might mediate between the cosmological initial state of halos predicted by simulations and their current observed state.

The term feedback has come to be used to mean a great variety of things. We must immediately make a distinction between the relatively mild sort of feedback activity which is actually observed in galaxies, and the explosive feedback required to address the problems posed by soft core halos. There is no doubt that the former does occur (e.g., Martin 1998, 1999; Rupke, Veilleux, & Sanders 2002), and probably plays an important role in enriching the intergalactic medium. However, the amount of gas involved is generally a small percentage of a galaxy’s interstellar medium, which is a small fraction of its baryonic mass, which is a fraction of its dark mass. The observed examples of feedback are far too feeble to have any significant impact on the distribution of the dominant dark mass.

In the context of galaxy formation, feedback is invoked to do a variety of things which bear little relation to observed feedback. Feedback from some star formation might suppress further star formation. If this varies systematically with galaxy mass, it might translate the steep halo mass function predicted by CDM into the flat observed galaxy luminosity function. The dramatic loss of angular momentum experienced by baryons in live-halo simulations (the “angular momentum catastrophe”) leads to the formation of disks which are much too small. Feedback is invoked as a possible cure for this, though sensible numerical implementations have no such effect (e.g., Navarro & Steimentz 2000). Most importantly for our purposes here, explosive feedback is invoked to drive out so much gas that it gravitationally drags some of the dark mass with it, perhaps creating a soft core where initially there had been a cusp (e.g., Navarro, Eke, & Frenk 1996).

Supposing, for the moment, that explosive feedback might be able to turn cusps into cores, there are two possible interpretations. One is that all galaxies are affected so that the current dark matter distribution bears no resemblance to the cosmological prediction. In this case, observations of LSB galaxies are fossil records of the mass redistribution process with no implication for cosmology. In effect, this invokes a deus ex machina to render irrelevant all rotation curve data. A second, less extreme possibility is that cusp destroying feedback occurs only in some galaxies. In this case, feedback need only be invoked to explain galaxies with $`c<2`$. The cuspy halo fits to the remaining galaxies hold — as do the cosmological limits derived from them. Since all of the estimators in Table 1 already ignore the low concentration galaxies, the constraint $`\sigma _8\mathrm{\Gamma }_{0.6}<0.23`$ is unaltered.

A separate question is whether explosive feedback really happens and can have the desired effect of converting a dark matter halo with a cusp into one with a core. McGaugh & de Blok (1998a) raised an empirical objection to this scheme. The LSB galaxies in which this is an issue are quite gas rich (McGaugh & de Blok 1997; Schombert, McGaugh, & Eder 2001) — a curious state for galaxies which were supposed to have exploded so energetically that so much gas was swept out that the dark matter was pulled along with it. One does require the expulsion of a huge amount of mass for this mechanism to have any hope of working, as the dark matter can be dragged along with the gas only by the weak shackles of gravity. In order to arrive at the current observed state, LSB galaxies must undergo a double-whammy formation scenario. First, an intense knot of star formation must occur inside the primordial cuspy halo. Feedback from this star formation must completely detonate the baryonic component of the initial galaxy, sweeping out all gas and hopefully converting the dark matter cusp into a constant density core. Subsequent to this mass redistribution, some gas must reaccrete to reform the galaxy into its more tenuous present state. This seems like a lot to ask, and has the undesirable consequence of inserting an untestable intermediary step between prediction and reality.

The fundamental problem with invoking explosive feedback to redistribute mass is that it is a case of the tail wagging the dog. A small fraction of the minority baryons — those which form the first stars — must have a tremendous effect on the majority dark matter. This huge effect must be most severe where the dark mass is most strongly concentrated, and mediated only by the weak force of gravity.

Basic physics considerations make the required mass redistribution highly unlikely. Numerical simulations of feedback suggest much weaker effects. For example, MacLow & Ferrara (2000) find that feedback can be effective only in galaxies several orders of magnitude less massive than those considered here, and only in ejecting gas, not redistributing dark mass. Gnedin & Zhao (2002) put a strict limit on the possible effects of explosive feedback by examining the consequences of the instantaneous removal of all gas. They find that even this extreme fails to destroy the initial cusp. Hence, it seems unlikely that explosive feedback can have the mass redistributing effects which are required to address the cusp-core problem.

#### 4.4.2 Other Mass Redistribution Mechanisms

There could be mechanisms to redistribute mass besides feedback. Weinberg & Katz (2001) suggested that bars in disks could impart enough angular momentum to halo particles to alter the halo mass distribution. However, this process can only be effective when the disk is a significant fraction of the total mass. Hence this mechanism might at best work in HSB galaxies like the Milky Way. It can not, as Weinberg & Katz note, explain dark matter dominated LSB galaxies unless explosive feedback is invoked first. Whether this mechanism is viable even in principle has been questioned by Sellwood (2003).

Another dynamical mechanism invokes the inspiraling of supermassive black hole pairs (Milosavljević et al. 2002). This process might displace up to ten times the black hole mass, and could well be important in elliptical galaxies. However, the black hole mass–velocity dispersion relation (Merritt & Ferrarese 2001) predicts very small black hole masses for bulgeless, dynamically cold LSB galaxies: far too small to cause any significant redistribution of dark mass. For example, a galaxy comparable in mass to many of the LSB galaxies discussed here is M33. The limit on the central black hole mass in M33 is $`<3000M_{}`$ (Merritt, Ferrarese, & Joseph 2001). Unless LSB galaxies host abnormally massive black holes, and acquired them in pairs through mergers (which these galaxies appear not to have experienced), this mechanism can not apply to them.

#### 4.4.3 Dark Matter Physics

Mass redistribution mechanisms which invoke the interaction of baryons and CDM appear either not to be viable, or not to apply to LSB galaxies. One might next consider modifying the nature of dark matter in order to alter the cuspy halo prediction. Such ideas fall into two broad categories: those which prevent the formation of cusps in the first place, and those which might reduce their concentration to more tolerable levels. Either would relieve or eliminate the cosmological constraints imposed here in the strict context of pure CDM.

Perhaps the first case to consider is a mixed hot plus cold dark matter cosmogony. Neutrinos do appear to have mass, and so will affect structure formation at some level. Massive neutrinos have the effect of suppressing the power spectrum on small scales relative to what it would have been in their absence. This operates in the desired direction, though a fairly hefty neutrino fraction ($`\mathrm{\Omega }_\nu /\mathrm{\Omega }_m10\%`$) is probably needed to have a significant impact. This would require neutrinos near the current upper bound on their mass (a few eV). This may well be possible, but can at best reduce the concentrations of halos a bit. The halos should still have cusps, not cores. So while it may be possible in this fashion to relax somewhat the constraints on cosmology, the more basic question about the shape of the density distribution of the dark matter halo remains unaddressed.

An effect similar to a mixture of hot and cold dark matter can be obtained with warm dark matter (WDM). In this case, the mass of the particle is fine-tuned so that it is neither hot nor cold dynamically. Again, the power spectrum is reduced on small scales, and the halo profile may be affected as well (Bode, Ostriker, & Turok 2001). The latter point is controversial, as Knebe et al. (2002) find that halo cuspiness persists in WDM. Observationally, there are already serious objections to WDM. Fermionic WDM should have a characteristic phase space density which appears to be inconsistent with galaxy and cluster data (Sellwood 2000; Marchesini et al. 2002).

The net effect of H+CDM and WDM models are similar for this problem. Some suppression of the power spectrum on small scales makes the cosmological limits more palatable. The presence of soft cores in at least some galaxies remains a difficult issue.

More radical suggestions about the nature of dark matter have also been made to address the cusp-core problem. These include annihilating and self-interacting dark matter (SIDM: Spergel & Steinhardt 2000). Annihilating dark matter may form halos with a core (e.g., Craig & Davis 2001) but could over-suppress small scale power. SIDM produces a cusp for small interaction cross-sections, but can produce a core with sufficiently large cross-sections (Davé et al. 2001). The cross-section that works for galaxies does not work for clusters (Yoshida et al. 2000), so one must invoke a velocity-dependent cross-section. This seems rather contrived, and other objections have been raised: Kochanek & White (2000) argue that the gravothermal catastrophe will cause SIDM cusps to steepen faster than they flatten.

There remains ample room to consider further modifications to the nature of dark matter. On the one hand, these seem like a more promising approach to the problem of turning cusps into cores than does explosive feedback. On the other hand, the problem is considerably more subtle than just turning a cusp into a core. It is well established observationally that the distributions of dark and luminous matter are tightly coupled (Sanders & McGaugh 2002; see also McGaugh 2000). The cusp-core problem is just one manifestation of this more fundamental issue. None of the approaches we have reviewed have made any attempt to explain the full richness of the observational phenomenology. SIDM interacts with itself, but not with baryons. It is hard to imagine how any explanation of the coupling between baryons and dark matter can be achieved by modifications of cold dark matter which explicitly ignore the baryons.

## 5 Conclusions

We have examined the cosmological consequences of the rotation curve data for dark matter dominated LSB galaxies in the context of cuspy NFW halos. If we insist that dark matter halos must have the cusps suggested by current structure formation simulations, an interesting limit on cosmology follows. This concentration limit is

$$\sigma _8\mathrm{\Gamma }_{0.6}<0.23,$$
(7)
where $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_{0.6}`$ is a suitably modified shape parameter (equation 3). As a practical matter, this means either a low density universe ($`\mathrm{\Omega }_m<0.2`$) or one with a depressed power spectrum on small scales ($`\sigma _8<0.8`$).

Such a universe is marginally inconsistent with the nominal parameters of standard $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$CDM. However, it is consistent with a number of recent determinations of the density parameter, and with most other constraints. It does therefore appear to be possible to tweak cosmology in order to satisfy our concentration constraint.

If dark matter halos do not have cusps, then there is no constraint on cosmology. However, cuspy halos do appear to have become a fundamental tenant of CDM structure formation. If so, the implications for cosmology are unavoidable.

Adjusting cosmological parameters can only address the problem of halo concentration. It does nothing to explain the shape of the radial mass distribution in dark matter halos, which must be cuspy in the current paradigm. In many objects with well-determined rotation curves, this appears not to be the case. Tweaking cosmology is a necessary step, but only a partial solution to one aspect of a broader problem.

Various mechanisms have been proposed to convert cusps into constant density cores. These include explosive feedback and modifications of the nature of dark matter (e.g., warm or self-interacting dark matter). Some cusp altering mechanism does appear to be necessary. However, it is far from obvious that any of the ideas which have been discussed so far are viable. All suffer from serious problems, both empirical and theoretical. At this juncture, a satisfactory explanation of observed galaxy dynamics remains beyond galaxy formation theory.

We are grateful to many people for their support and encouragement, most especially Vera Rubin, Albert Bosma, Jerry Sellwood, and Jim Peebles. We thank the referee and editor for a thorough review. The work of SSM was supported in part by NSF grant AST0206078. Note Added — While this paper was in submission, some related results have appeared. Zentner & Bullock (2002) have performed a similar analysis, finding that a suppression of the power spectrum on small scales helps with the concentration problem. This appears to be in complete accord with our results. Swaters et al. (2002b) have very recently provided a new analysis of rotation curves in addition to those studies already cited. This work appears consistent with previous results insofar as $`\chi ^2`$ prefers halos with cores to those with cusps. There are a number of objects in common with our sample; adding the new independent cases into Fig. 3 makes no difference to our result.


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# New constraints on the running-mass inflation model

## I Introduction.

The recent observation of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) angular anisotropies toco ; b97 ; Netterfield ; halverson ; lee ; cbi ; vsa  have revealed an outstanding agreement between the data and the inflationary predictions of a flat universe and of a primordial scale invariant spectrum of adiabatic density perturbations (see e.g. debe2001 ; pryke ; stompor ; wang ; cbit ; vsat ; saralewis ; mesilk ; caro ).

Furthermore, CMB measurements are in perfect agreement with other types of data and a global consistent picture is slowly emerging. For example, the CMB constraint on the amount of matter density in baryons, $`\omega _b`$, is now consistent with the independent constraints from standard big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) (see e.g. hansen ). Also, the detection of power around the expected third peak, on arc-minutes scales, provides a new and independent evidence for the presence of non-baryonic dark matter (see e.g. mesilk ). At the same time, early data releases from the 2dFGRS and SDSS galaxy redshift surveys 2dfgrs ; sdss  are living up to expectations and combined analysis of all these datasets are placing strong constraints on most of the cosmological parameters efstathiou ; lahav ; mesilk . A combined analysis of both CMB and galaxy clustering is indeed necessary in order to break some of the degeneracies between the cosmological parameters that are affecting the single datasets. Recent combined analysis, for example, have provided important constraints on the amplitude of the matter fluctuations lahav ; mesilk , on the gravity waves background efstathiou , on the dark energy equation of state bean ; percival2 ; mortsell  and on the neutrino mass hannestadnu ; elgaroy .

Thank to this new evidence, it is now accepted that the structure in the Universe is caused by an almost scale-independent primordial density perturbation, existing before cosmological scales start to enter the horizon. Nearly exponential inflation can easily explain the origin of this perturbation, because it converts the quantum fluctuation of every light scalar field into a scale-independent classical perturbation. At the present time, there is no equally successful alternative explanation for the origin of this perturbation. In particular, there is no reason to expect the quantum-to-classical conversion to take place in extra space dimensions, though of course a string-theoretic description of such dimensions may play a vital indirect role by determining the form of the effective four-dimensional field theory.

In this paper, we combine the latest CMB and galaxy clustering data in order to place constraints on the inflationary model responsible for the primordial density perturbation. We will in fact assume the simple paradigm of a slowly-rolling inflaton field, whose perturbations are the seed for the primordial density perturbations treview ; book  111The alternative curvaton  is to make a ‘curvaton’ field responsible, different from the inflaton if indeed the latter exists.. If this hypothesis is correct, observation will be able to distinguish between the few simple and well-motivated inflation models that exist, because they give different predictions for the spectral index of the primordial density perturbation. From among such models, we focus in this paper on the running-mass model of inflation st97 ; st97bis ; clr98 ; cl98 ; c98 ; rs , which is the only one which can that can give a strongly scale-dependent (running) spectral index. Comparing with a suite of observations, we find that significant running is still allowed.

A similar attempt in constraining this kind of scale-dependence was made in cl99  and covi , where however only a limited subset of the CMB and LSS data then available was used. A model-independent approach is used instead in hannestad-run , where constraints in the plane $`n`$ and its first derivative $`dn/d\mathrm{ln}k`$ were obtained. The main difference with our approach is that there it is implicitly assumed that the scale dependence is small, while this is not necessary the case for the running mass model.

Our paper is organized as follows: In section II we discuss the running mass model. In section III we present our data analysis method and results. Finally, in section IV, we discuss our conclusions.

## II The Running Mass Model.

### II.1 The potential

The running-mass model st97 ; st97bis ; clr98 ; cl98 ; c98 ; rs  seems to be the only one which is both very well-motivated from the particle physics point of view and also presents a strong scale-dependence of the spectral index. The model is based on supersymmetry and identifies the inflaton field with a flat direction of the supersymmetric scalar potential. Global supersymmetry is broken during inflation by the large vacuum energy that drives inflation and so soft mass terms are generated for all scalar fields rsg . Taking the one-loop corrections to the tree-level potential into account, the most general expression for the potential along a flat direction, like the inflaton’s, can then be cast into the form

$$V=V_0+\frac{1}{2}m^2(\mathrm{ln}\varphi )\varphi ^2+\mathrm{}.$$
(1)
where $`m^2`$ is the soft inflaton mass and the dots indicate non-renormalizable terms which are supposed to be negligible because $`\varphi /M_\mathrm{P}`$ is exponentially small (the usually–dominant renormalizable quartic term is absent precisely because we are using a flat direction in the scalar field space). The mass dependence on the renormalization scale, in our case identified with the value of the inflaton field, is given by the renormalization group equation st97

$$\frac{\text{d}m^2}{\text{d}\mathrm{ln}\varphi }\frac{\text{d}m^2}{\text{d}\mathrm{ln}Q}=\beta _m,$$
(2)
and therefore is proportional to the inflaton couplings, as given below in Eq. (3).

Ignoring for the moment the running, a generic supergravity theory will generate a soft mass-squared with magnitude at least of order $`|m^2|V_0/M_\mathrm{P}^2`$, which is marginally too big to support inflation. This is a problem for any model of inflation, whether or not the mass term is the one that is supposed to dominate. In all models except the running mass model, the problem is solved either by imposing a global symmetry to protect the flatness of the potential, or by supposing that the mass-squared is accidentally suppressed. The running mass model instead accepts the generic value of the mass-squared at the Planck scale (or some other high scale), and relies on the loop correction to sufficiently reduce it in the regime where inflation takes place.

For a particle with gauge and Yukawa interactions, we have that at one loop $`\beta _m`$ is given by st97bis ; c98

$$\beta _m=\frac{2C}{\pi }\alpha \stackrel{~}{m}^2+\frac{D}{16\pi ^2}|\lambda |^2m_{loop}^2,$$
(3)
where the first term arises from gauge particles loops and the second from matter loops. Above $`C,D`$ are a positive group-theoretic numbers of order one, counting the degrees of freedom present in the loop, $`\alpha `$ is the gauge coupling, and $`\stackrel{~}{m}`$ is the gaugino mass, while $`\lambda `$ denotes a common Yukawa coupling and $`m_{\mathrm{loop}}^2`$ the common susy breaking mass-squared of the scalar particles interacting with the inflaton via Yukawa interaction. Note that the first term in Eq. (3) is always negative, while the second has no definite sign, since $`m_{\mathrm{loop}}^2`$ is defined as the mass squared splitting between scalar and fermionic superpartners and can have either sign. Also the case of a very-weakly-interacting inflaton gives $`\beta _m0`$ and so that the constant mass potential is recovered.

Over a sufficiently small range of $`\varphi `$, or for very small inflaton couplings, it is a good approximation to take a Taylor expansion of the running mass $`m^2(\mathrm{ln}\varphi )`$ and then we have:

$$V=V_0+\frac{1}{2}m^2(\mathrm{ln}\overline{\varphi })\varphi ^2\frac{1}{2}c(\mathrm{ln}\overline{\varphi })\frac{V_0}{M_\mathrm{P}^2}\varphi ^2\mathrm{ln}(\varphi /\overline{\varphi }),$$
(4)
where we have expanded around $`\overline{\varphi }`$, and rescaled the last term w.r.t. $`V_0/M_\mathrm{P}^2`$ for future convenience. The dimensionless constant $`c`$ is proportional to the mass beta function,

$$c=M_\mathrm{P}^2\beta _m/V_0$$
(5)
It has been shown cl98  that for small $`c`$, as is required by slow roll conditions, the linear approximation is very good over the range of $`\varphi `$ corresponding to horizon exit for scales between $`k_{\mathrm{COBE}}`$ and $`8h^1\text{Mpc}`$. In order to obtain also a crude estimation of the reionization epoch via the Press-Schechter formula, which involves the power spectrum at a scale of order $`k_{\mathrm{reion}}^110^2\text{Mpc}`$ (enclosing the relevant mass of order $`10^6M_{}`$), we shall assume that the linear approximation is adequate down to this ‘reionization scale’.

For studying the inflaton potential, it is very useful to introduce a new parameter $`\varphi _{}`$ via

$$m^2(\overline{\varphi })=\frac{V_0}{M_\mathrm{P}^2}c(\overline{\varphi })\left[\mathrm{ln}\left(\frac{\varphi _{}}{\overline{\varphi }}\right)+\frac{1}{2}\right].$$
(6)
Then Eq. (7) takes the simple form cl98

$$V=V_0\frac{1}{2}\frac{V_0}{M_\mathrm{P}^2}c\varphi ^2\left(\mathrm{ln}\frac{\varphi }{\varphi _{}}\frac{1}{2}\right),$$
(7)
leading to

$$\frac{V^{}}{V_0}=c\frac{\varphi }{M_\mathrm{P}^2}\mathrm{ln}\frac{\varphi }{\varphi _{}},$$
(8)
In typical cases the linear approximation is valid at $`\varphi =\varphi _{}`$, and that point is then a maximum or a minimum of the potential.

The running-mass model supposes that the relevant soft masses at the Planck scale (or some other high scale) have magnitude roughly of order

$$|\text{soft mass}|V_0^{\frac{1}{2}}/M_\mathrm{P}H,$$
(9)
and that the relevant couplings (gauge or Yukawa) are very roughly of order 1. In general, one of the loops will dominate over the others making only one soft mass relevant besides the inflaton mass. With these assumptions, the coupling $`c`$ defined by Eq. (5) is roughly

$$|c|10^1\text{ to }10^2.$$
(10)
A bigger value of $`|c|`$ is unviable because it would not allow inflation. On the other hand, using Eq. (7) as a very crude estimate of the inflaton mass at the Planck scale, one can see that a much smaller value of $`|c|`$ is probably not viable either, since it would require the inflaton mass at that scale to be suppressed below the estimate Eq. (9).

For scalar masses, the estimate Eq. (9) is expected to be valid provided that the following statements are true: (i) there is at most gravitational-strength coupling between the inflaton sector and the sector in which SUSY is spontaneously broken (ii) this breaking comes from an $`F`$ term as opposed to a $`D`$ term (iii) during inflation (in contrast to the situation in the vacuum) the $`F`$ term in the potential is not accurately canceled by the other, negative contribution to the potential. The third of these requirements is reasonable provided that the potential satisfies

$$V_0\text{ }>M_\mathrm{S}^4,$$
(11)
where $`M_S`$ is the SUSY-breaking scale in the vacuum.

The most economical assumption is that actually the mechanism of spontaneous SUSY breaking during inflation is basically the same as it is in the vacuum, making $`V_0`$ roughly of order $`M_\mathrm{S}^4`$. For respectively the cases of anomaly-mediated, gravity-mediated and (low-energy) gauge-mediated transmission of SUSY-breaking to the Standard Model sector, this leads to the rough estimates

$`V_0^{\frac{1}{4}}`$ $``$ $`10^{12}\text{GeV}`$ (12)
$`V_0^{\frac{1}{4}}`$ $``$ $`10^{10}\text{GeV}`$ (13)
$`V_0^{\frac{1}{4}}`$ $``$ $`10^6\text{GeV}.`$ (14)
The second case was assumed in the original works rsg ; st97 ; st97bis . It gives the correct normalization for the spectrum for reasonable parameters, but there is probably enough latitude to allow the first or even the third case.

We emphasize that the estimate Eq. (9) for the scalar soft masses in the inflaton sector is reasonable in all three cases, even though the soft masses in the Standard Model sector (evaluated of course in the vacuum, and of order $`100\text{GeV}`$) satisfy that estimate only in the second, gravity-mediated case. In the first (anomaly-mediated) case, this is because no-scale supergravity does not automatically suppress soft scalar masses during inflation, as it does in the vacuum treview . In the third (gauge-mediated) case it is because one can easily suppose that the gauge-mediation mechanism simply does not operate in the inflaton sector. If the relevant soft mass is a gaugino mass, the expectation of Eq. (9) is not so automatic because gaugino masses can be very small with some types of SUSY breaking, but it is not unreasonable either.

In summary, we expect $`c`$ in the range (10) in a typical running mass model of inflation. As we now see, this typically leads to significant scale-dependence of the spectral index.

### II.2 The spectrum and the spectral index

Now we come to the predicted spectrum and spectral index of the primordial density perturbation. We suppose that it is generated by the inflaton field perturbation, which means that it is purely adiabatic and gaussian. It is therefore specified by the curvature perturbation $`(k)`$, with $`k`$ as usual the comoving wavenumber. This quantity is gaussian and hence specified by its spectrum $`𝒫_{}(k)`$.

To give the prediction of the running mass model for the spectrum, it is convenient to define

$`sc\mathrm{ln}(\varphi _{}/\varphi _{\mathrm{COBE}}),`$ (15)
where the subscript COBE denotes the epoch of horizon exit for the COBE scale $`k_{\mathrm{COBE}}0.002(h/\text{Mpc})`$.

Instead of the spectrum $`𝒫_{}(k)`$ we work with the conventional quantity $`\delta _H\frac{2}{5}𝒫_{}^{1/2}`$. At the COBE scale, the prediction of the running-mass model is

$$\delta _H(k_{\mathrm{COBE}})=\frac{1}{5\pi \sqrt{3}}\frac{V_0^{\frac{1}{2}}}{M_\mathrm{P}\varphi _{}}|s|^1\mathrm{exp}(s/c).$$
(16)
As already mentioned, the observed value $`\delta _H(k_{\mathrm{COBE}})=1.9\times 10^5`$ is easily obtained, for choices of $`V_0`$ and $`\varphi _{}`$ that correspond to reasonable particle physics assumptions.

In this paper we concern ourselves with the dramatic scale-dependence of the spectrum, which is given by

$$\frac{\delta _H^2(k)}{\delta _H^2(k_{\mathrm{COBE}})}=\mathrm{exp}\left[\frac{2s}{c}\left(e^{c\mathrm{\Delta }N(k)}1\right)2c\mathrm{\Delta }N(k)\right],$$
(17)
where $`\mathrm{\Delta }N(k)N_{\mathrm{COBE}}N(k)\mathrm{ln}(k/k_{\mathrm{COBE}})`$. We plot the primordial power spectrum for the running mass model in comparison to the constant spectral index case in Figure 1.

To discuss the spectral index and its running, we need the first four derivatives of the potential,

$`M_\mathrm{P}^2{\displaystyle \frac{V^{}}{V_0}}`$ $`=`$ $`c\varphi \mathrm{ln}{\displaystyle \frac{\varphi }{\varphi _{}}}`$ (18)
$`M_\mathrm{P}^2{\displaystyle \frac{V^{\prime \prime }}{V_0}}`$ $`=`$ $`c\left(\mathrm{ln}{\displaystyle \frac{\varphi }{\varphi _{}}}+1\right)`$ (19)
$`M_\mathrm{P}^2{\displaystyle \frac{V^{\prime \prime \prime }}{V_0}}`$ $`=`$ $`{\displaystyle \frac{c}{\varphi }}`$ (20)
$`M_\mathrm{P}^2{\displaystyle \frac{V^{\prime \prime \prime \prime }}{V_0}}`$ $`=`$ $`{\displaystyle \frac{c}{\varphi ^2}}`$ (21)
Introducing $`s`$, the first four flatness parameters treview ; book  are (setting $`V=V_0`$ in the denominators)

$`ϵ`$ $``$ $`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}\left({\displaystyle \frac{M_\mathrm{P}^2V^{\prime \prime }}{V}}\right)^2{\displaystyle \frac{s^2\varphi ^2}{M_\mathrm{P}^2}}e^{c\mathrm{\Delta }N(k)}`$ (22)
$`\eta `$ $``$ $`{\displaystyle \frac{M_\mathrm{P}^2V^{\prime \prime }}{V}}se^{c\mathrm{\Delta }N(k)}c`$ (23)
$`\xi ^2`$ $``$ $`{\displaystyle \frac{M_\mathrm{P}^4V^{}V^{\prime \prime \prime }}{V}}cse^{c\mathrm{\Delta }N(k)}`$ (24)
$`\sigma ^3`$ $``$ $`{\displaystyle \frac{M_\mathrm{P}^6V^2V^{\prime \prime \prime \prime }}{V}}cs^2e^{2c\mathrm{\Delta }N(k)}.`$ (25)
The parameters are evaluated at the epoch of horizon exit for the scale $`k`$. The first parameter $`ϵ`$ is negligible because $`\varphi /M_\mathrm{P}`$ is taken to be exponentially small. The condition for slow-roll inflation is therefore just $`|\eta |1`$, which is satisfied in the regime $`\varphi \varphi _{}`$ provided that $`|c|1`$. This corresponds also to requiring $`|s|1`$.

Additional and generally stronger constraints on $`s`$ follow from the reasonable assumptions that the mass continues to run to the end of slow-roll inflation, and that the linear approximation remains roughly valid. Discounting the possibility that the end of inflation is very fine-tuned, to occur close to the maximum or minimum of the potential, we have the lower bound

$$|s|\text{ }>e^{cN_{\mathrm{COBE}}}|c|.$$
(26)
Note that for negative $`c`$, this constraint is very strong, requiring a very large value of $`s`$ even for small $`c`$ and a kind of fine-tuning between $`s`$ and $`c`$ to give a reasonable value of $`n1`$.

For positive $`c`$, we also obtain a significant upper bound by setting $`\mathrm{\Delta }N=N_{\mathrm{COBE}}`$ in Eq. (30), and remembering that slow-roll requires $`|n1|\text{ }<1`$:

$$|s|\text{ }<e^{cN_{\mathrm{COBE}}}(c>0).$$
(27)
In the simplest case, that slow-roll inflation ends when $`n1`$ actually becomes of order 1, this bound becomes an actual estimate, $`|s|e^{cN_{\mathrm{COBE}}}`$. As discussed in cl99 , this upper bound can be relaxed for positive $`s`$ if the running of the mass ceases before the end of slow-roll inflation. The approximate region of the $`s`$ versus $`c`$ plane excluded by these considerations is shown in Figure 2.

Since $`ϵ`$ is negligible, the spectral index is

$`n(k)`$ $`=`$ $`1+2\eta 6ϵ`$ (28)
$``$ $`1+2\eta .`$ (29)
This gives cl99

$$\frac{n(k)1}{2}=se^{c\mathrm{\Delta }N(k)}c.$$
(30)
The first derivative of the spectral index is given by

$$n^{}(k)\frac{\text{d}n(k)}{\text{d}\mathrm{ln}k}=2sce^{c\mathrm{\Delta }N(k)}.$$
(31)
Clearly the spectral index is not constant within cosmological unless $`s`$ or $`c`$ is very close to zero.

At the COBE scale,

$`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}1`$ $`=`$ $`2(sc)`$ (32)
$`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}`$ $`=`$ $`2sc.`$ (33)
The straight line $`s=c`$ in the $`s`$ vs $`c`$ plane corresponds to $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}=1`$. The scale independent case of constant $`n=1`$ is given by the origin $`s=c=0`$, while constant spectral index different from $`1`$ is realized either on the $`c=0`$ axis for $`s=(n1)/2`$ or on the $`s=0`$ axis for $`c=(n1)/2`$.

Taking cosmological scales to span a range $`\mathrm{\Delta }N10`$, we see that the running mass model generates a change $`\delta n10sc`$ in the spectral index. This change should eventually be detectable unless both $`|c|`$ and $`|s|`$ are towards the bottom of their expected ranges.

We will show in the following the allowed region both in the $`s,c`$ parameter space and in the $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}`$ vs $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}1`$ plane. Note in this respect that not all values of $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}`$ are allowed in the running mass models: from the definition above, we obtain the constraint

$$n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}\frac{(n_{\mathrm{COBE}}1)^2}{4},$$
(34)
so that a decreasing spectral index is possible only if $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}`$ is different from 1. Also Eq. (33) is symmetric under reflection with respect to the $`s+c=0`$ line, so fixing the variables $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}1`$ and $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}`$ determines two values of $`s,c`$. We will investigate in the following how strongly the data are sensitive to a variation of $`n^{}`$ and therefore able to disentangle this degeneracy. From all this, it follows that fitting for arbitrary value of $`n^{}`$ is not exactly equivalent to performing a fit for the running mass models.

These predictions for the spectral index and its derivative are to leading order in slow-roll. To second order, the spectral index is given to a good approximation by treview

$$\frac{n(k)1}{2}=s(1+1.06c)e^{c\mathrm{\Delta }N(k)}c,$$
(35)
We neglected a term of order $`\eta ^2`$, and the remaining (unknown) error is expected to be of order $`\sigma ^3`$. Both of these are negligible which means that the second-order correction should be rather accurate. We shall not include it though, because it just corresponds to a small rescaling of the quantity $`s`$, whose precise value depends on unknown physics treview . Note that it is in any case easy to obtain the results at next-to-leading order, by rescaling $`s`$ by the factor $`1/(1+1.06c)`$ or shift $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}1`$ by $`1.06n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}`$.

## III Observational constraints

### III.1 Method

We compare the recent cosmological observations with a grid of theoretical models computed with the public available CMBFAST sz  code. We restrict our analysis to flat, adiabatic, $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$-CDM models and we sample the various parameters as follows: $`\mathrm{\Omega }_{cdm}h^2\omega _{cdm}=0.01,\mathrm{}0.40`$, in steps of $`0.01`$; $`\mathrm{\Omega }_bh^2\omega _b=0.001,\mathrm{},0.040`$, in steps of $`0.001`$ and $`\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda }=0.0,\mathrm{},0.95`$, in steps of $`0.05`$. The value of the Hubble constant is given by $`h=\sqrt{\frac{\omega _{cdm}+\omega _b}{1\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda }}}`$

We allow for a reionization of the intergalactic medium by varying also the compton optical depth parameter $`\tau _c`$ in the range $`\tau _c=0.0,\mathrm{},0.20`$ in steps of $`0.05`$. Greater values of $`\tau _c`$ are in disagreement with recent estimates of the redshift of reionization $`z_R6\pm 1`$ (see e.g. gnedin ) which points towards $`\tau _c0.05`$. As discussed later, given a cosmological model, we checked for the consistency of the assumed optical depth with its expected values derived from a simple reionization scenario.

We vary the $`2`$ parameters of the running mass model in the range $`0.30<c<0.30`$ and $`0.47<s<0.47`$ in a $`50\times 50`$ grid. To save computing time, we compute the CMB anisotropies transfer functions for each cosmological model just one time and then we integrate them different times looping over $`c`$ and $`s`$.

For the CMB data, we use the recent results from the BOOMERanG-98, DASI, MAXIMA-1,CBI, and VSA experiments. The power spectra from these experiments were estimated in $`19`$, $`9`$, $`13`$, $`14`$ and $`10`$ bins respectively (for the CBI, we use the data from the MOSAIC configuration), spanning the range $`2\mathrm{}3500`$. However, since in this work we are interested only in comparing the data with the expected primary anisotropies, we limit our analysis to the region $`\mathrm{}<1500`$ which is likely not to be affected by secondary effects like Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (see e.g. nabila ).

The likelihood for a given theoretical model is defined by $`2\mathrm{l}\mathrm{n}=(C_B^{th}C_B^{ex})M_{BB^{}}(C_B^{}^{th}C_B^{}^{ex})`$ where $`M_{BB^{}}`$ is the Gaussian curvature of the likelihood matrix at the peak and $`C_B`$ are the experimental (theoretical) band powers. We discard the first bin of the CBI dataset ($`0<\mathrm{}<400`$), due to the asymmetric window function and the high sample variance.

We consider $`10\%`$, $`4\%`$, $`5\%`$, $`3.5\%`$ and $`5\%`$ Gaussian distributed calibration errors for the BOOMERanG-98, DASI, MAXIMA-1, VSA, and CBI experiments respectively and we include the beam uncertainties by the analytical marginalization method presented in sara .

In addition to the CMB data we incorporate the real-space power spectrum of galaxies in the 2dF 100k galaxy redshift survey using the data and window functions of the analysis of Tegmark et al. thx .

To compute $`^{2dF}`$, we evaluate $`p_i=P(k_i)`$, where $`P(k)`$ is the theoretical matter power spectrum and $`k_i`$ are the $`49`$ k-values of the measurements in thx . Therefore we have $`2ln^{2dF}=_i[P_i(Wp)_i]^2/dP_i^2`$, where $`P_i`$ and $`dP_i`$ are the measurements and corresponding error bars and $`W`$ is the reported $`27\times 49`$ window matrix. We restrict the analysis to a range of scales where the fluctuations are assumed to be in the linear regime ($`k<0.2h^1\mathrm{Mpc}`$). When combining with the CMB data, we marginalize over a bias $`b`$ considered to be an additional free parameter.

We also include the recent $`13`$ data points on the matter power spectrum obtained by Croft et al. croft  using Lyman $`\alpha `$ forest data from $`53`$ quasar spectra. The theoretical transfer functions are in this case computed up to redshift $`z=2.72`$ and compared by a simple chi-square analysis with the data, including the $`\pm 25\%`$ error in the data amplitude.

Moreover, following a similar approach used in a previous analysis covi  we use reionization bounds. Practically, we deduce for each theoretical model, the expected value of $`\tau _c^{th}`$,

$$\tau _c^{th}=\frac{0.035\mathrm{\Omega }_bh}{1\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda }}\left(\sqrt{(1\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda })(1+z_R)^3+\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda }}1\right)$$
(36)
from the reionization redshift $`z_R`$ estimated using a Press-Schechter formula. Taking $`f`$ to be the fraction of matter collapsed into objects with mass $`M=10^6M_{}`$, $`1+z_R`$ is given by

$$1+z_R\{\begin{array}{cc}\frac{\sqrt{2}\sigma (M)}{\delta _cg(1\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda })}\text{erfc}^1(f)\hfill & \hfill f1\\ \frac{\sigma (M)}{g(1\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda })}\hfill & \hfill f1\end{array}$$
(37)
where $`\sigma (M)`$ is the present, linearly evolved, rms density contrast with top-hat smoothing and $`\delta _c=1.7`$ is the overdensity contrast required for gravitational collapse; $`g(1\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda })`$ is the suppression factor of $`\sigma (M)`$ at the present epoch for the case of a non vanishing cosmological constant:

$`g(\mathrm{\Omega })={\displaystyle \frac{5}{2}}\mathrm{\Omega }\left({\displaystyle \frac{1}{70}}+{\displaystyle \frac{209}{140}}\mathrm{\Omega }{\displaystyle \frac{1}{140}}\mathrm{\Omega }^2+\mathrm{\Omega }^{4/7}\right)^1.`$ (38)
In the case of the running mass model, $`\sigma (M)`$ can become very large even for moderate values of $`c`$, if $`c\mathrm{ln}(k_R/k_{COBE})1`$, so that the reionization constraint is very powerful. To give a feeling of this strong dependence, we show in Figure 3 the value of $`z_R`$ as a function of $`c`$ for the simple cases $`s=c,s=c0.05`$ at fixed cosmological parameters.

For each model in the database with a given optical depth $`\tau _c`$ we then consider the further prior $`2ln^{rei}=[\tau _c\tau _c^{th}]^2/0.05^2`$ where the $`1\sigma `$ error should take into account the uncertainties due to the different reionization mechanisms.

Finally, we also include a constraint on the variance $`\sigma `$ on a mass scale of $`10^6h^1M_{}`$ of $`9\pm 1`$ consistent with the limits on the linear power spectrum obtained using measurements of substructure in gravitational lens galaxies in the analysis of dalal .

One should keep in mind that there are many caveats in the inclusion of all above constraints.

We attribute a likelihood to each value of $`c`$ and $`s`$ by marginalizing over the nuisance parameters. We then define our $`68\%`$ ($`95\%`$), confidence levels to be where the integral of the likelihood is $`0.16`$ ($`0.025`$) and $`0.84`$ ($`0.975`$) of the total value.

### III.2 Results

The likelihood contours in the $`cs`$ plane obtained analyzing the CMB data under the assumption of a set of “weak” priors ($`h=0.65\pm 0.2`$, $`t_0>11Gyrs`$) are plotted in Figure 4. As we can see, even if the space of models analyzed is quite broad, the CMB data is able to give strong constraints along the $`sc`$ direction. In particular, we obtain the constraint $`n_{COBE}=1+2(sc)=0.96_{0.04}^{+0.06}`$ and $`n_8=`$ at $`68\%`$ c.l… We found that including stronger priors ($`h=0.72\pm 0.08`$, $`\mathrm{\Omega }_m=0.3\pm 0.1`$) on the nuisance parameters does not change these results and does not improve significantly the constraints on $`n_{COBE}`$. Assuming negligible reionization ($`\tau =0`$) gives $`n_{COBE}=0.93_{0.03}^{+0.03}`$.

Also plotted in Figure 4 (Top Panel) are the likelihood contours obtained in the combined 2dFGRS-CMB analysis. As we can see, even the inclusion of the 2dF data does not improve significantly the CMB constraints. The combination of the 2dF data is extremely powerful in constraining parameters like $`\mathrm{\Omega }_m`$ and $`h`$, that define the epoch of equality and the position in the $`k`$ space of the matter spectrum. However, in the CMB+2dF combined analysis, we found $`n_{COBE}=0.97_{0.04}^{+0.05}`$ at $`68\%`$ c.l..

In the center panel of Figure 4 we report the likelihood contours obtained in the combined CMB+Ly-$`\alpha `$ analysis. As already noticed by hannestad-run , we find that the Lyman $`\alpha `$ data are able to restrict more strongly the scale dependence of the spectral index and therefore exclude the parameter space at large $`|c|`$; in particular at $`68\%`$ we have $`sc<0.026`$, so that a variation of the spectral index over cosmological scale of the order of 10% is allowed.

Finally, in the bottom panel of Figure 4 we plot the likelihood contours obtained in the combined CMB+reionization analysis. Also in this case part of the region of large $`s,c`$ is excluded, but still a sizable variation and values of $`|c|`$ up to 0.2 are allowed. It should be emphasized that this reionization constraint is only one of theoretical consistency. As one can see from Figure 3, the self-consistent value of $`z_R`$ becomes very large for $`c>0.10`$. If it turns out that $`z_R\text{ }<10`$, the top part of the allowed region ‘CMB $`+`$ Reionization’ will be excluded.

Focussing on the region ($`s+c>0`$ , $`c>0`$), we plot the likelihood contours in the $`2(sc)`$ vs. $`2sc`$ plane in Figure 5. As we explained before, $`2(sc)`$ gives the value of the spectral index $`n_{COBE}1`$ on COBE scales, while $`2sc=n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}`$ gives the bend in the spectrum.

As we can see from the figure, the recent CMB data alone constrains $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}<0.1`$ at $`95\%`$ C.L., while including the constraints from 2dF, Ly-$`\alpha `$, reionization redshift, limits the amount of deviation from scale invariance to $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}<0.05`$ at $`95\%`$ c.l.. Adding the strong lensing constraint from dalal , as discussed earlier, further constrains $`n^{}<0.04`$ at $`95\%`$ c.l.. It is important to notice that a lower spectral index $`n<0.95`$ is consistent with the lensing observation only if $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}>0`$. Note also that in all cases the best fit value of $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}`$ is not in the centre of the allowed region, but lower, towards the value $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}=0`$. Furthermore, the inclusion of a bend in the power spectrum, does not seem to affect in a considerable way the CMB constraint on $`n`$ since there is a weak correlation between these two variables.

The correlation between $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}`$ and the remaining parameters is investigated in Figure 6 where the likelihood function for $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}`$ is plotted in function of $`\omega _b`$, $`\omega _{cdm}`$ and the Hubble parameter, $`h`$.

As we can see, the correlation with these parameters is extremely small, meaning that the inclusion of a bending in the primordial spectrum would not drastically affect the actual constraints on the parameters considered. However, an increase in $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}`$ can allow larger (smaller) values of $`\omega _b`$ ($`\omega _{cdm}`$). The Hubble parameter $`h`$ is poorly constrained by CMB alone.

We have also considered the effect of variations in $`n_{COBE}`$ and $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}`$ on the predicted level of rms mass fluctuations in spheres of $`8h^1\text{Mpc}`$. At the moment, there is some sort of tension between the possible values of this parameter obtained from local cluster abundances ($`\sigma _80.75`$ for $`\mathrm{\Omega }_M=0.3`$, see e.g. seljakcluster ) and weak lensing ($`\sigma _80.9`$ for $`\mathrm{\Omega }_M=0.3`$ see e.g. refregier ).

In Figure 7 we plot the likelihood contours from the CMB analysis for $`\sigma _8`$ against $`n_{COBE}1`$ (Top Panel) and $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}`$ (Bottom Panel) respectively. As expected, increasing both $`n_{COBE}1`$ and $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}`$ increases the level of $`\sigma _8`$, but the correlation is not relevant enough to actually detect a bending in the spectrum with present observations.

We are in qualitative agreement with other recent constraints on a running spectral index hannestad-run . Precise comparison is difficult mainly because we did not consider a background of gravity waves (that can weaken our final result) since in the running-mass models this is negligible. Furthermore, we considered a more updated CMB dataset respect to the one considered in hannestad-run  and we considered different datasets other than CMB. Finally, hannestad-run  assumes that $`n^{}`$ can take any value, whereas the running-mass model excludes significantly negative $`n^{}`$ (Eq. (34)). The running-mass model also allows variation of $`n^{}(k)`$, but this is not very significant at the present level of observation.

We end this discussion of our results by commenting on a recent analysis by Caprini, Hansen and Kunz chk  which investigates the variation of $`n^{}(k)`$ that is allowed by observation. First, they assume that the flatness parameter $`\sigma ^3`$ is constant to the end of slow-roll inflation, and taking $`N_{\mathrm{COBE}}=50`$, they find $`\sigma ^3>3.5\times 10^4`$. The running-mass prediction Eq. (25) for $`\sigma ^3`$ is roughly constant to the end of slow-roll inflation if $`|c|\text{ }<1/50`$, and in this regime one needs $`|s|\text{ }<0.1`$ to have $`n`$ sufficiently close to 1; combining these results gives roughly $`|\sigma ^3|\text{ }<4\times 10^4`$ in agreement with chk . However, chk  assume next that instead $`V^{\prime \prime \prime \prime }`$ is roughly constant, and derives a bound $`M_\mathrm{P}^4V^{\prime \prime \prime \prime }/V>0.02`$. In contrast, the running-mass model predicts $`M_\mathrm{P}^4V^{\prime \prime \prime \prime }/V=c(M_\mathrm{P}/\varphi )^2`$ which is exponentially large (and of either sign) and strongly varying. Thus the bound on $`V^{\prime \prime \prime \prime }`$ of chk  does not apply to the running-mass model in any regime of its parameter space. We remind the reader again that, at the moment, the running-mass model is the only well-motivated model giving significant running of the spectral index.

## IV Conclusions

The rather full analysis that we have described confirms the general picture indicated by previous analyses covi . The allowed region in the $`c`$ vs $`s`$ plane depicted in Figure 4 should be compared with the region shown in Figure 2 which approximately delineates the theoretically disfavoured region, and also with the minimum value $`|c|\text{ }>10^2`$ which is probably needed to generate enough running of the mass even if we go from the Planck scale to $`100\text{GeV}`$. Combining all of these, we see that if $`|c|`$ is significantly above the minimum value, only the version of the model with $`c`$ and $`s`$ both positive is viable. In that case, the spectral index has significant running which will be detectable in the forseeable future. On the other hand, if $`|c|`$ is really of order $`10^2`$, all choices of the signs of $`c`$ and $`s`$ are possible except maybe negative $`c`$ with positive $`s`$. Furthermore, if that extreme case can be realized in a viable running-mass model the running of $`n`$ will be so small that it may never be detectable.

Looking at the observational situation in more detail, our results show that the CMB data can put very strong constraints on the value of the spectral index at large scales, $`n_{COBE}=1+2(sc)`$, but still allow a pretty large scale-dependence. Other information on the power spectrum, like Lyman $`\alpha `$ data, or strongest assumptions about the reionization epoch are needed to reduce the parameter space in the $`s+c`$ direction. Still values of $`|c|`$ of the order of 0.2, and therefore $`n_{\mathrm{COBE}}^{}`$ of the order $`0.04`$, are allowed. Note also that our allowed region is more or less symmetric under reflection with respect to the $`s+c=0`$ line: this means that the present data are not sensitive enough to distinguish the variation of $`n^{}`$ that is predicted by the running-mass model. Finally, we show that the inclusion of the running in the spectral index has a moderate effect on the present CMB determination of the physical matter densities in baryons $`\omega _b`$ and cold dark matter $`\omega _{cdm}`$.

Acknowledgements It is a pleasure to thank Steen Hansen, Carolina Odman and Joseph Silk for useful comments. We acknowledge the use of CMBFAST sz . AM is supported by PPARC.