text:
# Cascade-based attacks on complex networks

\[Phys. Rev. E 66, 065102 (2002)\]

## Abstract

We live in a modern world supported by large, complex networks. Examples range from financial markets to communication and transportation systems. In many realistic situations the flow of physical quantities in the network, as characterized by the loads on nodes, is important. We show that for such networks where loads can redistribute among the nodes, intentional attacks can lead to a cascade of overload failures, which can in turn cause the entire or a substantial part of the network to collapse. This is relevant for real-world networks that possess a highly heterogeneous distribution of loads, such as the Internet and power grids. We demonstrate that the heterogeneity of these networks makes them particularly vulnerable to attacks in that a large-scale cascade may be triggered by disabling a single key node. This brings obvious concerns on the security of such systems.

Complex networks are an essential part of a modern society Strogatz:2001 ; AB:2002 . It has been shown that many networks, such as the world-wide web (WWW), the Internet, and electrical power grids, present a surprisingly small average distance between nodes and a highly organized distribution of links per node WS:1998 ; BA:1999 ; AJB:2000 . Generally, the average distance will not be affected by the removal of a random subset of nodes, but it will increase significantly if the removed nodes are among the most connected ones AJB:2000  (see also Refs. cohen:2000 ; callaway:2000 ; cohen:2001 ). The existence of a giant connected component in the network, however, does not depend on the presence of highly connected nodes. For instance, the WWW has homepages with many thousands of hyperlinks and can remain well connected after the removal of all homepages with five or more hyperlinks Broder:2000 . In addition, the giant component itself is typically a small-world network Watts:book  even after the removal of all highly connected nodes Alessandro:2002 . These pioneering studies on network security address mainly static properties, $`i.e.`$, the effect of different network architectures. They suggest that the network connectivity, and hence its functionability, is robust against random failure of nodes AJB:2000 ; cohen:2000 ; callaway:2000  and to some extent is even robust against intentional attacks Broder:2000 ; Alessandro:2002 . Here we show that for many physical networks, the removal of nodes can have a much more devastating consequence when the intrinsic dynamics of flows of physical quantities in the network is taken into account. In a power transmission grid, for instance, each node (power station) deals with a load of power. The removal of nodes, either by random breakdown or intentional attacks, changes the balance of flows and leads to a global redistribution of loads over all the network. This can trigger a cascade of overload failures Watts:2002 ; Moreno:2002 , as the one that happened on August 10, 1996 in the western United States power grid Carreras:2000 ; Sachtjen:2000 . Another example is the Internet pastor:2001 ; willinger:2002 ; goh:2002 , where the load represents the amount of information a node (router) is requested to transmit per unit of time, and overloads correspond to congestion congestions . Internet collapses caused by congestion have been reported since its very beginning Jacobson:1998 . In this Rapid Communication, we introduce a model for cascading failure in complex networks and show that it is applicable to realistic networks such as the Internet and power grids.

For a given network, suppose that at each time step one unit of the relevant quantity, which can be information, energy, etc., is exchanged between every pair of nodes and transmitted along the shortest path connecting them. The load at a node is then the total number of shortest paths passing through the node Newman:2001 ; Goh:2001 ; HK:2002 . The capacity of a node is the maximum load that the node can handle. In man-made networks, the capacity is severely limited by cost. Thus, it is natural to assume that the capacity $`C_j`$ of node $`j`$ is proportional to its initial load $`L_j`$,

$$C_j=(1+\alpha )L_j,j=1,2,\mathrm{}N,$$
(1)
where the constant $`\alpha 0`$ is the tolerance parameter, and $`N`$ is the initial number of nodes. When all the nodes are on, the network operates in a free-flow state insofar as $`\alpha 0`$. But, the removal of nodes in general changes the distribution of shortest paths. The load at a particular node can then change. If it increases and becomes larger than the capacity, the corresponding node fails. Any failure leads to a new redistribution of loads and, as a result, subsequent failures can occur. This step-by-step process is what we call a cascading failure, or a cascade. It can stop after a few steps but it can also propagate and shutdown a considerable fraction of the whole network comment . A fundamental question is: under what conditions can such a global cascade take place?

Here we focus on cascades triggered by the removal of a single node. If a node has a relatively small load, its removal will not cause major changes in the balance of loads, and subsequent overload failures are unlikely to occur. However, when the load at the node is relatively large, its removal is likely to affect significantly loads at other nodes and possibly starts a sequence of overload failures. Our result is the following: global cascades occur if (1) the network exhibits a highly heterogeneous distribution of loads; (2) the removed node is among those with higher load. Otherwise, cascades are not expected. The distribution of loads is in turn highly correlated with the distribution of links: networks with heterogeneous distribution of links are expected to be heterogeneous with respect to load so that on average, nodes with larger number of links will have higher load Goh:2001 . This result confirms the robust-yet-fragile property of heterogeneous networks, which was first observed in Ref. AJB:2000  for the attack on several nodes. The cascade effect is important, however, because a large damage can be caused in this case by the attack on a single node. While a network with more links can be more resistant against cascading failures, in practice the number of links is limited by cost.

Now we provide evidence for our result. We study cascades triggered by random breakdown and by intentional attacks. To simulate the former, we choose a trigger at random among all the nodes of the network, as can occur in networks such as power grids Carreras:2000 . In the case of attack the targeted node is selected from those with highest loads or largest degrees (number of links at a node). We consider heterogeneous networks with algebraic (scale-free) distribution $`P`$ of links, as observed in real systems Redner:1998 ; FFF:1999 ; BA:1999 ; AB:2002 ,

$$P(k)k^\gamma ,$$
(2)
where $`k`$ denotes the degree and $`\gamma `$ the scaling exponent, and compare them with an equivalent homogeneous configuration. These networks are generated according to the procedure in Refs. NSW:2001 ; Motter:2002 , where the nodes are connected randomly for a given degree distribution, and self- and repeated links are forbidden. The damage caused by a cascade is quantified in terms of the relative size $`G`$ of the largest connected component,

$$G=N^{}/N,$$
(3)
where $`N`$ and $`N^{}`$ are the numbers of nodes in the largest component before and after the cascade, respectively.

Figure 1 shows the relative size $`G`$ of the largest component after cascading, as a function of the tolerance parameter $`\alpha `$, for a scale-free network. We can see that on average $`G`$ remains close to unity in the case of random breakdowns but it is significantly reduced under intentional attacks, even for $`\alpha `$ unrealistically large. Indeed, the size of the largest component is reduced by more than $`20\%`$ for $`\alpha =1`$, $`i.e.`$, for a capacity as large as two times the capacity required for the system to operate when all the nodes function normally. This result is in agreement with intuition, because in the case of random breakdown the trigger is probably one of the many nodes with small load, while in the case of intentional attack it is a node with very large load. The damage is larger for smaller values of $`\alpha `$, as it is for load-based attacks when compared with degree-based attacks. For instance, in the load-based attack for $`\alpha =0.2`$, more than $`60\%`$ of the nodes are affected. For the 5000-node networks used in our simulations, it means that a cascade triggered by the attack on a single node shuts down and disconnects more than 3000 others!

Figure 2 shows the corresponding results for a homogeneous network with the same number of nodes and exactly 3 links per node. To make a meaningful comparison we display in the inset results for an algebraic network with about the same average degree (actually larger, which strengthens our conclusions). The homogeneous network does not experience cascading failures due either to random breakdown or to intentional attacks for $`\alpha `$ as small as $`0.05`$. For the heterogeneous (scale-free) network, for the same value of $`\alpha `$, cascades triggered by the attack on a key node can reduce the largest connected component to less than $`10\%`$ of the original size, as shown in the inset. Therefore, homogeneous networks appear to be more robust against attacks than the heterogeneous ones. This conclusion does not rely on the particularities of these models, as the same was also observed for classes of networks with exponential and Poisson-like distributions of degrees ($`e.g.`$, the Erdös-Rényi model ER ): their homogeneity makes them relatively resistant to cascades triggered by attacks. The networks corresponding to the inset of Fig. 2 are generated according to the same scaling distribution of those in Fig. 1, except that in this case the minimal number of links at a node is set to be 2. Therefore, this inset shows that the fragility of scale-free networks is due to their heterogeneity and does not rely on the presence of nodes with degree one, which are easily disconnectable. Naturally, the increase of the average degree reduces the damage of the cascade, as can be seen from a comparison between Fig. 1 and the inset of Fig. 2.

Many real-world networks are heterogeneous and as such are expected to undergo large-scale cascades if some vital nodes are attacked, but rarely in the case of random breakdown. As an example we consider the Internet at autonomous system level Internet , which displays an algebraic distribution of links AJB:2000 . The damage caused by triggers of higher load or degree is much larger than that by random breakdown, as shown in Fig. 3. The cascading failures are rarely triggered by random breakdown for $`\alpha >0.05`$, but more than $`20\%`$ of the nodes can be disconnected with the intentional attack on only one node for $`\alpha 0.4`$. We have also considered the electrical power grid of the western United States power-grid . The degree distribution in this network is consistent with an exponential Amaral:2000  and is thus relatively homogeneous. The distribution of loads, however, is more skewed than that displayed by semirandom networks NSW:2001 ; Motter:2002  with the same distribution of links, indicating that the power grid has structures that are not captured by these models. As a result, global cascades can be triggered by load-based intentional attacks but not by random or degree-based removal of nodes, as shown in Fig. 4. We see that the attack on a single node with large load reduces the largest connected component to less than a half of its initial size, even when the network is highly tolerant ($`e.g.`$, $`\alpha =1`$).

Our result is thus that real networks are naturally evolved to be quite resistant to random failure of nodes, but the presence of a few nodes with exceptionally large load, which is known to be ubiquitous in natural and man-made networks, has a disturbing side effect: the attack on a single important node (one of those with high load) may trigger a cascade of overload failures capable of disabling the network almost entirely. Such an event has dramatic consequences on the network performance, because the functionability of a network relies on the ability of the nodes to communicate efficiently with each other. What is the use, say, of having a phone if you cannot call anybody?

We conclude with some thoughts on the meaning of our results for security. An effective attack relies on identifying vulnerabilities and is far from being random. Our society is geographically distributed in a way that natural hazards are by no means random editorial . An example is the crowding of people, communication, transportation, and financial centers around seismic areas, like the Pacific Rim. Natural disasters and intentional attacks can then have devastating consequences on the complex networks underlying the society. These consequences will be more severe if the damage on one or few nodes is capable of spreading over the entire network. In this sense a cascade-based attack can be much more destructive than any other strategies of attack previously considered AJB:2000 ; Broder:2000 ; Motter:2002 ; callaway:2000 ; cohen:2001 ; sole:2001 ; jeong:2001 ; HKYH:2002 .

The authors thank Réka Albert and Duncan J. Watts for providing the Internet and power-grid data, respectively. This work was supported by AFOSR under Grant No. F49620-98-1-0400 and by NSF under Grant No. PHY-9996454.


format: text

text:
# The spin periods of magnetic cataclysmic variables

## 1. The sample of mCVs

As shown in Figure 1, the mCVs occupy a wide range of parameter space in the spin period ($`P_{\mathrm{spin}}`$) versus orbital period ($`P_{\mathrm{orb}}`$) plane. This indicates that accretion occurs by a variety of different types of magnetically controlled flow. However, certain regions of the diagram are sparsely populated. In order to understand this distribution we use a model of magnetic accretion to investigate the rotational equilibria of these systems. First we discuss the systems included in Figure 1 and their characteristics.

### 1.1. Synchronous polars

We include 67 synchronous polars ranging from CV Hyi with a period of 77.8 min to V1309 Ori with a period of 7.98 hr. Magnetic field strength estimates exist for 52 of these, spanning the range $`\mu _13\times 10^{33}10^{35}`$ G cm3. It is apparent that a true period gap no longer exists for polars, however we note that there are 22 synchronous systems with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}=P_{\mathrm{orb}}>2.5`$ hr and a further 45 systems with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}=P_{\mathrm{orb}}<2.5`$ hr.

### 1.2. Asynchronous polars

There are 5 systems in which $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}`$ and $`P_{\mathrm{orb}}`$ differ by around 2% or less. These are assumed to be polars that have been disturbed from synchronism by a recent nova explosion. The systems are V1432 Aql with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}=1.003`$ (Friedrich et al 1996), BY Cam with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}=0.992`$ (Silber et al 1992), V1500 Cyg with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}=0.983`$ (Schmidt & Stockman 1991), V4633 Sgr with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}=1.023`$ (Lipkin et al 2001), and CD Ind with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}=0.989`$ (Schwope et al 1997). In Figure 1 these systems are essentially indistinguishable from the synchronous polars.

### 1.3. Nearly synchronous intermediate polars

Slightly further away from synchronism than the asynchronous polars are 4 recently discovered systems that may best be described as nearly synchronous intermediate polars. The systems are V381 Vel with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}=0.910`$ (Tovmassian, these proceedings), RXJ0524+42 with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}=0.866`$ (Schwarz, these proceedings), HS0922+1333 with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}=0.882`$ (Tovmassian, these proceedings) and V697 Sco with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}=0.737`$ (Warner & Woudt 2002). Two of these systems lie in the ‘period gap’. We suggest that all four systems are intermediate polars in the process of attaining synchronism and evolving into polars.

### 1.4. Conventional intermediate polars

We include 22 systems that we classify as conventional intermediate polars. These all have spin to orbital period ratios in the range $`0.25>P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}>0.01`$ and $`P_{\mathrm{orb}}>3`$ hr. The systems are V709 Cas (Norton et al 1999), 1RXSJ154814.5–452845 (Haberl, Motch & Zickgraf 2002), 2236+0052 (Woudt & Warner, these proceedings), V405 Aur (Allan et al 1996), YY Dra (Haswell et al 1997), PQ Gem (Duck et al 1994), V1223 Sgr (Taylor et al 1997), AO Psc (Taylor et al 1997), HZ Pup (Abbott & Shafter 1997), UU Col (Burwitz et al 1996), FO Aqr (de Martino et al 1999), V2400 Oph (Buckley et al 1997), BG CMi (de Martino et al 1995), TX Col (Norton et al 1997), 1WGA1958.2+3232 (Norton et al 2002), TV Col (Vrtilek et al 1996), AP Cru (Woudt & Warner 2002), V1062 Tau (Hellier, Beardmore & Mukai 2002), LS Peg (Rodriguez-Gil et al 2001), RR Cha (Woudt & Warner 2002), RXJ0944.5+0357 (Woudt & Warner, these proceedings), and V1425 Aql (Retter, Leibowitz & Kovo-Kariti 1998). The orbital period of 1RXSJ154814.5–452845 is currently uncertain, and the two possible values are both shown in Figure 1, connected by a horizontal line.

### 1.5. EX Hya-like systems

There are a further 4 intermediate polars that lie below the ‘period gap’. These all have $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}>0.1`$ and $`P_{\mathrm{orb}}<2`$ hr. Given their location on the $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}`$ versus $`P_{\mathrm{orb}}`$ diagram, we refer to these as ‘EX Hya-like’ systems for convenience. The systems are HT Cam (Kemp et al 2002), RXJ1039.7–0507 (Woudt & Warner 2003a), V1025 Cen (Hellier, Wynn & Buckley 2002) and EX Hya (Allan, Hellier & Beardmore 1998). The systems DD Cir (Woudt & Warner 2003b) and V795 Her (Rodriguez-Gil et al 2002) lie within the ‘period gap’ with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}0.1`$ and may be included with these systems.

### 1.6. RXJ1914.4+2456 and RXJ0806.3+1527

RXJ1914 (a.k.a. V407 Vul) and RXJ0806 are X-ray sources that each display a single coherent periodiocity at 569s and 321s respectively. They have been suggested to be double degenerate systems, where the modulation represents the orbital period of either a polar, an Algol-like system or an electrically powered star (Cropper et al 1998, these proceedings; Ramsay et al 2000, 2002a, 2002b; Marsh & Steeghs 2002; Wu et al 2002; Israel et al 1999, 2002, these proceedings). It has also been suggested that the systems are face-on stream-fed intermediate polars (Norton, Haswell & Wynn 2002), in which case the periods observed are beat periods between the white dwarf spin and orbital periods caused by the accretion stream flipping from one pole to the other twice in each synodic period. For stream-fed flow, the orbital periods must be $`<2.37`$ h for RXJ1914 and $`<1.33`$ h for RXJ0806. We include these systems in Figure 1 under the assumption that they are intermediate polars. Their data points are shown with ‘tails’ indicating the upper limits on their spin and orbital periods.

### 1.7. Rapid rotators

Finally there are a mixed bag of 6 objects that are characterized by rapidly rotating white dwarfs. They all lie in the region of the diagram defined by $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}<0.01`$, but with a large range of orbital periods. They include the very long outburst interval SU UMa star, WZ Sge (Patterson et al 1998) with a proposed spin period of 28 s, the propeller system AE Aqr (Choi, Dotani & Agrawal 1999) with a 33 s spin period, the ‘DQ Her systems’ V533 Her (Thorstensen & Taylor 2000) and DQ Her (Zhang et al 1995), and also XY Ari (Hellier, Mukai & Beardmore 1997) and the long orbital period old nova GK Per (Morales-Rueda, Still & Roche 1996).

## 2. Spin equilibria

The spin rate of a magnetic white dwarf accreting via a disc reaches equilibrium when the rate of angular momentum accreted by the white dwarf is equal to the braking effect of the magnetic torque on the disc close to its inner edge. The inner edge of such a disc may then be defined as the point where the magnetic stresses exceed the viscous stresses.

Most models for this equilibrium spin period find that the inner edge of the disc, at radius $`R_{\mathrm{in}}`$, is roughly equal to the magnetospheric radius $`R_{\mathrm{mag}}`$ and also to the corotation radius, $`R_{\mathrm{co}}`$, that is the radius at which a particle in a Keplerian orbit would orbit the white dwarf at the same rate as the white dwarf spins on its axis. This implies that systems whose white dwarfs have low surface magnetic moments will be rapid rotators, whilst systems whose white dwarfs have high surface magnetic moments will be slow rotators.

In turn, this leads to the requirement for truncated accretion disc formation of $`R_{\mathrm{in}}R_{\mathrm{mag}}R_{\mathrm{co}}<<R_{\mathrm{circ}}`$ (i.e. the circularisation radius at which material would first go into orbit around the white dwarf). With this hierarchy of radii, the spin and orbital periods of the system must then satisfy $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}<<0.1`$. Whilst this condition is clearly satisfied for the rapid rotators like DQ Her, V533 Her, XY Ari and GK Per, it is clearly not true for all intermediate polars.

Indeed, systems with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}>0.1`$ are unlikely to possess discs, since this implies $`R_{\mathrm{in}}R_{\mathrm{mag}}R_{\mathrm{co}}>R_{\mathrm{circ}}`$. King & Wynn (1999) showed that the spin period of EX Hya can be understood as an equilibrium situation in which the magnetospheric and corotation radii extend out to the inner Lagrangian point, $`R_{\mathrm{mag}}R_{\mathrm{co}}b`$. They used simulations of the accretion flow for parameters appropriate to EX Hya to show that a range of equilibrium spin periods are possible, but that the maximum possible spin to orbital period ratio is $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}0.68`$, in remarkable agreement with the periods of EX Hya. King & Wynn further suggested that a continuum of spin equilibria should exist appropriate to a range of magnetic moments and orbital periods. The aim of the work reported below was to explore this parameter space.

## 3. The magnetic model

The equation of motion of plasma in a magnetic field is

$$\rho \frac{\mathrm{d}v}{\mathrm{d}t}=P_{}\left[\frac{B^2}{8\pi }\right]+\frac{1}{R}\left[\frac{B^2}{4\pi }\right]\widehat{n}+\mathrm{\Phi }_{\mathrm{grav}}$$
(1)
If we assume the tension term is the dominant force, then the magnetic acceleration is given by

$$a_{\mathrm{mag}}=\frac{1}{R\rho }\left[\frac{B^2}{4\pi }\right]\widehat{n}$$
(2)
This in turn may be parameterized by introducing the drag parameter $`k`$ via

$$a_{\mathrm{mag}}=k(r,t,\rho )[\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{K}\mathrm{\Omega }_{}]$$
(3)
where $`\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{K}`$ is the angular speed of the material orbiting the white dwarf with Keplerian velocity and $`\mathrm{\Omega }_{}`$ is the angular speed of the magnetic field lines.

Up to this point, the model is appropriate for any form of magnetic interaction. However, if we now assume that the accertion flow takes the form of diamagnetic blobs, we may express $`k`$ in terms of the magnetic timescale $`t_{\mathrm{mag}}`$ or the magnetic field strength $`B`$, the Alfvén speed $`c_\mathrm{A}`$, and the blob density $`\rho `$ and length $`l`$.

$$k\frac{P_{\mathrm{orb}}}{t_{\mathrm{mag}}}\frac{B^2(r,\theta )}{c_\mathrm{A}\rho l}$$
(4)
The blob density is approximated by

$$\rho \frac{\dot{M}4\pi ^2}{P_{\mathrm{orb}}^2c_\mathrm{s}^3}$$
(5)
and the blob length by

$$l\frac{P_{\mathrm{orb}}c_\mathrm{s}}{2\pi }$$
(6)
where the sound speed is

$$c_\mathrm{s}\left(\frac{kT}{m_\mathrm{H}}\right)^{1/2}$$
(7)
with $`T3000`$ K.

The model outlined above is implemented in a computer code and may be used to allow systems to evolve to their rotational equilibrium. Other examples of the use of the model are presented in King & Wynn (1999), Hellier, Wynn & Buckley (2002) and Ultchin, Regev & Wynn (2002).

## 4. Results

The results of running the model to establish the allowed range of equilibrium spin periods are shown in Figure 2, and Figure 3 shows some example accretion flows corresponding to different regions of the parameter space explored. The model was run for 10 different orbital periods (80 m, 2 h, 3 h, … 10 h) for each of 11 different values of the $`k`$ parameter. These $`k`$ values have been converted into the corresponding value of the white dwarf surface magnetic moment $`\mu _1`$, assuming the diamagnetic blob prescription of Equation 4. Lines on Figure 2 connect the points for each orbital period. The line for an orbital period of 80 m essentially reproduces that obtained by King & Wynn appropriate to EX Hya. It should be noted that there is some latitude in applying the conversion from $`k`$ to $`\mu _1`$ (mostly from the assumed values of $`\rho `$ and $`l`$ describing the blobs), so the envelope of equilibrium periods may shift laterally in the plane. Also, the calculations were performed for a single value of white dwarf mass (0.7 M) and different values will shift the results slightly in the vertical direction. Nonetheless it is encouraging that the predicted equilibrium spin periods lie in the range at which many mCVs are seen. It should also be noted that the estimated magnetic field strengths for the intermediate polars that display polarized emission (e.g. PQ Gem, BG CMi, V2400 Oph and LS Peg) lie within the region covered by the results.

In the envelope of allowed parameter space shown on Figure 2, we note that the region with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}<0.1`$ corresponds to $`R_{\mathrm{mag}}R_{\mathrm{co}}<R_{\mathrm{circ}}`$ and so indicates regions where truncated accretion discs may form. The region with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}0.1`$ corresponds to $`R_{\mathrm{mag}}R_{\mathrm{co}}R_{\mathrm{circ}}`$ and the region with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}0.6`$ corresponds to $`R_{\mathrm{mag}}R_{\mathrm{co}}b`$.

If we now assume that all mCVs are at their equilibrium spin period we can place the intermediate polars on Figure 2 by tracing across at the appropriate $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}`$ value to intersect the equilibrium line for the appropriate orbital period. In this way, most of the squares have been placed on Figure 2. For the few systems that have $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}>0.6`$ (i.e. EX Hya and the 4 nearly synchronous intermediate polars) we have simply placed them above the mid-point of the plateau part of the relevant curves at the appropriate $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}`$ value. We note that in cases where $`\dot{P}_{\mathrm{spin}}`$ is measured for intermediate polars, several are spinning up whilst a similar number are spinning down, and FO Aqr has been seen to do both. Hence the assumption that intermediate polars are close to their equilibrium spin periods is a good one with only small deviations apparent on short timescales.

## 5. Synchronisation

We now use the results obtained above to investigate the polar synchronisation condition. We may assume that systems become synchronized once the magnetic locking torque is equal to the accretion torque. Hence

$$\frac{\mu _1\mu _2}{a^3}=\dot{M}(GM_1R_{\mathrm{mag}})^{1/2}$$
(8)
where the surface magnetic moment on the secondary may be approximated by

$$\mu _2=2.8\times 10^{33}P_{\mathrm{orb}}^{9/4}\mathrm{G}\mathrm{cm}^3$$
(9)
from Warner (1996) with $`P_{\mathrm{orb}}`$ in hours. The magnetospheric radius is approximated by the corotation radius,

$$R_{\mathrm{mag}}R_{\mathrm{co}}=\left(\frac{GM_1P_{\mathrm{spin}}^2}{4\pi ^2}\right)^{1/3}$$
(10)
and the mass accretion rate $`\dot{M}`$ is set to the secular value given by

$$\dot{M}=2.0\times 10^{11}\times P_{\mathrm{orb}}^{3.7}\mathrm{M}_{}\mathrm{yr}^1$$
(11)
for $`P_{\mathrm{orb}}>2.7`$ h (McDermott & Taam 1989) and

$$\dot{M}=2.4\times 10^{15}\times \frac{M_1^{2/3}P_{\mathrm{orb}}^{1/6}}{\left(1\frac{15q}{19}\right)\left(1+q\right)^{1/3}}\mathrm{g}\mathrm{s}^1$$
(12)
for angular momemtum loss by gravitational radiation (Warner 1995) which we assume to be dominant at $`P_{\mathrm{orb}}<2.7`$ h. The mass ratio is $`q=M_2/M_1`$ where we assume a primary mass of $`M_1=0.7`$ M and a secondary mass given by $`M_2=0.091P_{\mathrm{orb}}^{1.44}`$ M.

Solutions to Equation 8 are plotted as diagonal lines on Figure 4. Each line connects points at which synchronisation will occur for a given orbital period. The lines shown are for orbital periods of 3 h, 4 h, … 10 h, as those for shorter orbital periods lie to the upper left of the region plotted. Where these diagonal lines intersect the equilibrium spin period lines for their respective orbital periods, gives the points at which systems will synchronize. The locus of these points is shown by the thick line which simply connects the various intersection points. Hence, systems lying below the thick line will not be prone to synchronise, whilst those lying above will tend to do so.

## 6. Predictions

From Figures 2 and 4 it can be seen that the intermediate polars above the period gap virtually all lie below the sychronisation line. The two systems just above the line are RR Cha and RXJ0944.5+0357 with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}`$ of 0.161 and 0.168 respectively. We suggest these three are probably normal intermediate polars and within the errors of our calculation are consistent with sitting below the synchronisation line. Lying well above the synchronisation line are the two nearly synchronous intermediate polars V697 Sco and HS0922+1333 with $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}`$ of 0.737 and 0.882 respectively. We suggest that these two systems are on their way to synchronism. A similar fate should hold for the rest of the intermediate polars above the period gap that have relatively high white dwarf magnetic moments.

At short orbital periods, the picture is rather different. All 6 of the EX Hya-like intermediate polars, plus the two nearly synchronous intermediate polars RXJ0524+42 and V381Vel, lie above the synchronisation line and so should be synchronised. We suggest the reason for them not being synchronised could be that the secondary stars in the EX Hya-like systems have low magnetic moments (i.e. less than predicted by Equation 9) and so are unable to come into synchronism.

It is also apparent from Figure 2 that virtually all the intermediate polars have $`\mu _1<5\times 10^{33}`$ G cm3 whereas virtually all of the polars have $`\mu _1>5\times 10^{33}`$ G cm3. This discrepancy between the intermediate polar and polar magnetic fields has been noted in the past, and poses the question: where are the synchronous systems with low white dwarf magnetic moments? We can suggest three possibilities for the answer.

Firstly, it may be that the systems with a low white dwarf magnetic moment do synchronize, but in the synchronous state they are primarily EUV emitters and so unobservable. Alternatively it may be that when systems with low white dwarf magnetic moment evolve to short orbital periods, for some reason they simply do not synchronize, but remain on the spin equilibrium line where the rest of the EX Hya-like systems reside. Finally there is the possibility raised by Cummings (these proceedings) that the magnetic fields in intermediate polars are buried by their high accretion rate and so are not really as low as they appear. In this picture, one could envisage that as intermediate polars evolve towards shorter orbital periods, when they reach the period gap the mass transfer shuts off, the magnetic field of the white dwarf re-surfaces, and the systems synchronize before re-appearing below the period gap as conventional, high field, polars.

## 7. The magnetic moment distribution of white dwarfs in mCVs

The results shown in Figure 4 can also be used to characterize the theoretical distribution of mCVs as a function of the white dwarf surface magnetic moment. We assume that the number of systems varies according to

$$N(\mu _1)\mathrm{d}\mu _1\mu _1^n\mathrm{d}\mu _1$$
(13)
where $`n`$ is a number to be determined. We may integrate under the equilibrium curves shown in Figure 4 to get the predicted number of systems within a given range of $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}`$. The number in a given bin is then

$$N\left[\frac{\mu _1^{1n}}{1n}\right]_{\mathrm{log}\mu _1+\frac{\mathrm{\Delta }\mathrm{log}\frac{P_{\mathrm{spin}}}{P_{\mathrm{orb}}}}{G}}^{\mathrm{log}\mu _1}$$
(14)
where $`G`$ is the gradient of a cubic fit to each of the equilibrium curves in Figure 4. The range of spin to orbital period ratios was divided into eight logarithmic bins, seven of which were 0.25 wide in log space and the eighth corresponded to synchronous systems. The integration was carried out over the magnetic moment range $`10^{32}\mathrm{G}\mathrm{cm}^3<\mu _1<10^{35}\mathrm{G}\mathrm{cm}^3`$ and at the spin to orbital period ratio (for a given orbital period) indicated by the thick line in Figure 4, we assume that systems become synchronized. The predicted number of systems was averaged over orbital periods of 3, 4, 5, and 6 hours assuming systems to be distributed evenly in orbital period, and the final result was normalised to the number of known mCVs with orbital periods greater than 3 h.

The best fit value of the power law index $`n`$ was found to be at 1.95, with a reduced chi-squared of $`\chi _r^2=0.56`$, as shown in Figure 5, although values between $``$1.85 and 2.05 are also valid ($`\chi _r^2<1`$). The cumulative histograms comparing the observed number of systems with that predicted by Equation 13 with $`n=1.95`$ is shown in Figure 6, and Table 1.

## 8. Conclusions

We have demonstrated that there is a range of parameter space in the $`P_{\mathrm{spin}}/P_{\mathrm{orb}}`$ versus $`\mu _1`$ plane at which spin equilibrium occurs for mCVs. Using the results of numerical simulations we can infer the surface magnetic moments of the white dwarfs in intermediate polars to be mostly in the range $`10^{32}\mathrm{G}\mathrm{cm}^3<\mu _1<5\times 10^{33}\mathrm{G}\mathrm{cm}^3`$. Most of the intermediate polars with orbital periods greater than 3 h lie below the synchronisation line, whilst most systems with orbital periods less than 2 h lie above it and should be synchronized. High magnetic moment intermediate polars at long orbital periods will evolve into polars. Low magnetic moment intermediate polars at long orbital periods will either: evolve into EX Hya-like systems at short orbital periods; evolve into low field strength polars which are (presumably) unobservable, and possibly EUV emitters; or, if their fields are buried by high accretion rates, evolve into conventional polars once their magnetic fields re-surface when mass accretion turns off. EX Hya-like systems may have low magnetic field strength secondaries and so avoid synchronisation.

We have also shown that the distribution of mCVs above the period gap follows the relationship $`N(\mu _1)\mathrm{d}\mu _1\mu _1^2\mathrm{d}\mu _1`$. Recent data from G. Schmidt (private communication), concerning the magnetic field strength distribution of isolated white dwarfs, reveals a drop off in the number at high magnetic field strengths in those systems too.

## References

Abbott, T.M.C., & Shafter, A.W., 1997, ASP Conf. Ser. 121, 679

Allan, A., Horne, K., Hellier, C., Mukai, K., Barwig, H., Bennie, P.J., & Hilditch, R.W., 1996, MNRAS, 279, 1345

Allan, A., Hellier, C., & Beardmore, A.P., 1998, MNRAS, 295, 167

Buckley, D.A.H., Haberl, F., Motch, C., Pollard, K., Schwarzenberg-Czerny, A., & Sekiguchi, K., 1997, MNRAS, 287, 117

Burwitz, V., Reinsch, K., Beuermann, K., & Thomas, H.C., 1996, A&A, 310, L25

Choi, C.S., Dotani, T., & Agrawal, P.C., 1999, ApJ, 525, 399

Cropper, M., 2003, these proceedings

Cropper, M., Harrop-Allin, M.K., Mason, K.O., Mittaz, J.P.D., Potter, S.B., & Ramsay, G. 1998, MNRAS, 293, L57

Cummings, A., 2003, these proceedings

de Martino, D., Mouchet, M., Bonnet-Bidaud, J.M., Vio, R., Rosen, S.R., Mukai, K., Augusteijn, T., & Garlick, M.A., 1995, A&A, 298, 849

de Martino, D., Silvotti, R., Buckley, D.A.H., Gänsicke, B., Mouchet, M., Mukai, K., & Rosen, S.R., 1999, A&A, 350, 517

Duck, S.R., Rosen, S.R., Ponman, T.J., Norton, A.J., Watson, M.G., & Mason, K.O., 1994, MNRAS, 271, 372

Friedrich, S., Staubert, R., Lamer, G., Koenig, M., Geckeler, R., Baessgen, M., Kollatschny, W., Oestreicher, R., James, S.D., & Sood, R.K. 1996, A&A306, 860

Haberl, F., Motch, C., & Zickgraf, F.J., 2002, A&A, 387, 201

Haswell, C.A., Patterson, J., Thorstensen, J.R., Hellier, C., & Skillman, D.R., 1997, ApJ, 476, 847

Hellier, C., Mukai, K., & Beardmore, A.P., 1997, MNRAS, 292, 397

Hellier, C., Beardmore, A.P., Mukai, K., 2002, A&A, 389, 904

Hellier, C., Wynn G.A., & Buckley, D.A.H., 2002, MNRAS, 333, 84

Israel, G.L., 2003, these proceedings

Israel, G.L., Panzera, M.R., Campana, S., Lazzati, D., Covino, S., Tagliaferri, G., & Stella, L., 1999, A&A, 349, L1

Israel, G.L., Hummel, W., Covino, S., Campana, S., Appenzeller, I., Gässler, W., Mantel, K.-H., Marconi, G., Mauche, C.W., Munari, U., Negueruela, I., Nicklas, H., Rupprecht, G., Smart, R.L., Stahl, O., & Stella, L., 2002, A&A, 386, L13

Kemp, J., Patterson, J., Thorstensen, J.R., Fried, R.E., Skillman, D.R., & Billings G., 2002, PASP, 114, 623

King, A.R., & Wynn, G.A., 1999, MNRAS, 310, 203

Lipkin, Y., Leibowitz, E.M., Retter, A., & Shemmer, O., 2001, MNRAS, 328, 1169

Marsh, T.R., & Steeghs, D., 2002, MNRAS, 331, L7

McDermott, P.N., Taam, R.E., 1989, ApJ, 342, 1019

Morales-Rueda, L., Still, M.D., & Roche, P., 1996, MNRAS, 283, 58

Norton, A.J., Hellier, C., Beardmore, A.P., Wheatley, P.J., Osborne, J.P., & Taylor, P., 1997, MNRAS, 289, 362

Norton, A.J., Beardmore, A.P., Allan, A., & Hellier, C., 1999, A&A, 347, 203

Norton, A.J., Haswell, C.A., & Wynn, G.A., 2002, astro-ph/0206013

Norton, A.J., Quaintrell, H., Katajainen, S., Lehto, H.J., Mukai, K., & Negueruela, I., 2002, A&A, 384, 195

Patterson, J., Richman, H., Kemp., J., & Mukai, K., 1998, PASP, 110, 403

Ramsay, G., Cropper, M., Wu, K., Mason, K.O., Hakala, P. 2000, MNRAS, 311, 75

Ramsay, G., Hakala, P., & Cropper, M. 2002a, MNRAS, 332, L7

Ramsay, G., Wu, K., Cropper, M., Schmidt, G., Sekiguchi, K., Iwamuro, F., & Maihara, T., 2002b, MNRAS, 333, 575

Retter, A., Leibowitz, E.M., & Kovo-Kariti, O., 1998, MNRAS, 293, 145

Rodriguez-Gil, P., Casares, J., Martinez-Pais, I.G., Hakala, P., & Steeghs, D., 2001, ApJ, 548, L49

Rodriguez-Gil, P., Casares, J., Martinez-Pais, I.G., & Hakala, P.J., 2002, ASP Conf. Ser., 261, 533

Schmidt, G.D., & Stockman, H.S., 1991, ApJ, 371, 749

Schwarz, R., 2003, these proceedings

Schwope, A.D., Buckley, D.A.H., O’Donoghue, D., Hasinger, G., Trümper, J., & Voges, W., 1997, A&A, 326, 195

Silber, A., Bradt, H.V., Ishida, M., Ohashi, T., & Remillard, R.A., 1992, ApJ, 389, 704

Taylor, P., Beardmore, A.P., Norton, A.J., Osborne, J.P., & Watson, M.G., 1997, MNRAS, 289, 349

Thorstensen, J.R., & Taylor, C.J., 2000, MNRAS, 312, 629

Tovmassian, G., 2003, these proceedings

Ultchin, Y., Regev, O., Wynn, G.A., 2002, MNRAS, 331, 578

Vrtilek, S.D., Silber, A., Primini, F., Raymond, J.C., 1996, ApJ, 465, 951

Warner, B., 1995, Cataclysmic Variable Stars, CUP

Warner, B., 1996, Ap&SS, 241, 263

Warner, B., & Woudt, P.A., 2002, PASP, 114, 1222

Woudt, P.A., & Warner, B. 2002, MNRAS, 335, 44

Woudt, P.A., & Warner, B., 2003a, astro-ph/0210565, MNRAS, in press

Woudt, P.A., & Warner, B., 2003b, astro-ph/0301241, MNRAS, in press

Woudt, P.A., & Warner, B. 2003c, these proceedings

Wu, K., Cropper, M., Ramsay, G., & Sekiguchi, K., 2002, MNRAS, 331, 221

Zhang, E., Robinson, E.L., Stiening, R.F., & Horne, K., 1995, ApJ, 454, 447


text:
# The SED of the TeV BLLac 1ES 1426+428 after correction for the TeV–IR absorption

## 1 Introduction

The very high energy emission from extragalactic objects (and BL Lacs in particular) is likely affected by absorption due to the $`\gamma `$-$`\gamma `$ collision and pair production process on the diffuse extragalactic IR background radiation (IRB). Since the expected optical depths are energy–dependent and can be very high (see Fig. 1), the original spectra are expected to be modified both in shape and intensity. Although this gives the opportunity for an independent measurement of the IR background on cosmological distances, it also constitutes a problem, since at present we cannot disentangle the two contributions: to constrain the IRB we should model the initial incident spectrum, but to model the original blazar spectrum we need to know the amount of absorption, since also in the most simple SSC models the physical parameters derived from the synchrotron peak are not sufficient to univocally constrain the full blazar SED, even not considering variability effects. Simultaneous X-ray – TeV observations and data at energies not (or less) affected by absorption (e.g. $`<`$ 100$``$200 GeV) are needed, as well as more TeV sources located at different redshifts.
Even if the uncertainties on the IRB intensity and shape are still very large , it is nevertheless interesting to see how the intrinsic blazar spectra would be according to present estimates of the IRB, and if our emission models can account for them. In this respect, the case of the extreme BL Lac 1ES 1426$`+`$428 is of particular interest, since it is the TeV source with the highest redshift known (z$`=`$0.129), and its spectrum has been measured by HEGRA up to 10 TeV , i.e. at energies where the optical depth is expected to be very high (see Fig 1, right).
As a working hypothesis, therefore, we have adopted two possible models for the IRB (Fig.1 left) to reconstruct the 1ES 1426$`+`$428 intrinsic TeV spectrum, and studied the resulting global SED applying a “finite injection time” SSC model, which is fully described in .

## 2 The TeV spectrum of 1ES 1426+428

1ES 1426+428 is a low power, high synchrotron peak ($`\nu _{peak}>100`$ keV) BL Lac, according to the most recent BeppoSAX observation (Feb. 1999, $`\alpha _x=0.9`$, ). Fig. 2 shows its SED in the TeV range, with data from HEGRA  (1999-2000, 1-10 TeV, re-analyzed for better energy resolution and sensitivity at high energies ), Whipple  (2001, 0.3-2 TeV) and CAT  (1999-2000, 0.3-1 TeV).
Fig. 2 shows also the corresponding absorption–corrected points (using IRB “model 1”) and power-law model spectra before and after absorption.
With both IRB models, the large optical depths yield intrinsic fluxes $`>10^{10}`$erg cm-2 s$`^1`$with hard spectra ($`\alpha <1`$), implying a Compton peak above 10 TeV with an apparent luminosity $`>10^{46}`$erg cm-2 s$`^1`$. If we assume an X-ray flux during the TeV observations not far from the historical data (as suggested by the XTE ASM lightcurves), the resulting global SED (Fig. 3) seems characterized by a high Compton dominance ($`L_c/L_s>10`$) and a relatively high apparent bolometric luminosity ($`>10^{46}`$erg cm-2 s$`^1`$): these results are not expected in the standard “blazar sequence” scenario , for which objects with high peak frequencies should have low bolometric luminosities ($`<10^{45}`$erg cm-2 s$`^1`$) and a $`L_c/L_s1`$.

To see if such an SED could be accounted for, we have tried various fits with our SSC model, both assuming or not the BeppoSAX X-ray slope also in the TeV range. Within this model, the pure SSC fits (Fig. 3 left) seem not able to provide at the same time high Compton luminosities and hard spectra: the decline of the cross section in the Klein-Nishina regime prevents the TeV electrons from scattering efficiently the synchrotron peak photons, while the scattering in the more efficient Thomson regime occurs with photons of lower energy density (optical and IR), yielding steep spectra in the TeV range. These effects can be counterbalanced (Fig. 3 center and right) assuming an additional contribution to the energy density of the seed photons in the Thomson regime, which we have preliminarly parameterized as a black body spectrum peaked at $`\nu _02\times 10^{13}`$ Hz (in the comoving frame). This “ambient” contribution could be supposed to originate from other parts of the jet (e.g. in a spine-layer scenario ) or outside the jet itself. Model parameters are reported in Table 1.

Concluding, if the assumed IR background will be confirmed, the intrinsic SED of 1ES 1426+428 will require a revision of the “standard” blazar sequence scenario. However, our SSC model seems still able to account for such hard and luminous TeV spectra, but with the addition of an external contribution to the seed photon energy density. In the near future, we hope to resolve the ambiguity in the interpretation of TeV data with the new generations of Ĉerenkov Telescopes (e.g. H.E.S.S.): their lower energy thresholds ($`<0.1`$ TeV) will provide us with data from both the absorbed and (almost) not absorbed part of the spectrum, and their better sensitivity will permit more detailed studies of the correlated X-ray – TeV variability, allowing to more reliably model the full BL Lac SED and thus to constrain the IRB.


text:
# The Future of Microwave Background Physics

## 1 Where We Are Now

The cosmic microwave background is one of the best-studied sources of cosmological information (see Kamionkowski and Kosowsky (1999); Durrer (2001); Hu and Dodelson (2002) for reviews). It is nearly isotropic on the sky, with small temperature fluctuations at the level of one part in $`10^5`$. These fluctuations arise from several basic physical mechanisms in the early Universe at a redshift $`z1100`$: gravitational redshift, temperature fluctuations at the last scattering surface, Doppler shifts from peculiar velocities at the last scattering surface, and diffusion damping through the thickness of the last scattering surface Kosowsky (2002); Hu (2003). In addition, further temperature fluctuations and spectral distortions arise from gravitational and scattering effects at comparatively recent epochs, with $`z<3`$. Simple arguments show that the microwave background should also have small polarization fluctuations, roughly an order of magnitude smaller than the temperature fluctuations Kosowsky (1999).

### 1.1 Power Spectra

The temperature fluctuations have been measured and studied in detail for the past decade, beginning with the watershed COBE detection Gorski et al. (1994), while the first measurement of polarization fluctuations by Kovac and collaborators has been discussed at this conference. So far, on angular scales down to about a degree, the temperature fluctuations appear to possess a Gaussian random distribution Park et al. (2001); Shandarin et al. (2002). To the extent that the fluctuations are Gaussian, they are described completely by their power spectra. A parity-invariant distribution of primordial fluctuations will result in four non-zero power spectra: temperature $`C_l^T`$, two polarization $`C_l^E`$ and $`C_l^B`$, and the cross-correlation $`C_l^{TE}`$ Kamionkowski et al. (1997a); Zaldarriaga and Seljak (1997); Lue et al. (1999) (where $`l`$ is the multipole moment, inversely proportional to angular scale with $`l=200`$ corresponding to one degree). These are the observables we will primarily consider here, although additional non-Gaussian temperature structure in the maps will also be very interesting to probe.

Theoretically, we can model how well a given measurement will probe the power spectrum, given its sky coverage, angular resolution, and sensitivity Knox (1995); Kamionkowski et al. (1997a); Zaldarriaga and Seljak (1997). Experimentally, the MAP satellite will map the full sky with an angular resolution of around 12 arcminutes and an effective sensitivity of around 25 $`\mu `$K, in five frequency bands ranging from 30 GHz to 150 GHz. A few ground-based experiments have displayed higher angular resolution and sensitivity over far smaller regions of the sky; see Max Tegmark’s contribution to these proceedings for a current compilation of power spectrum measurements.

### 1.2 Cosmological Parameters

The intense interest in microwave background temperature fluctuations has been fueled largely by the realization that the power spectrum contains much information about cosmological parameters which describe the fundamental properties of the Universe Jungman et al. (1996); Zaldarriaga et al. (1997); Bond et al. (1997): the Hubble parameter $`h`$; the densities of baryons $`\mathrm{\Omega }_b`$, dark matter $`\mathrm{\Omega }_{cdm}`$, and “dark energy” $`\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda }`$; the primordial power spectrum of scalar perturbations parameterized by an amplitude $`A_s`$ and power law index $`n_s`$; the same for tensor fluctuations $`A_t`$ and $`n_t`$; and the optical depth to the surface of last scattering $`\tau `$.

The ability of the microwave background to constrain these parameters hinges on the existence of acoustic oscillations of the primordial plasma at the last scattering surface. These oscillations are phase-coherent in simple cosmological models, since each $`k`$-mode has a characteristic cosmological time at which it enters the horizon, and result in the well-known series of “acoustic peaks” in the power spectrum. The amplitudes and angular scales of these peaks in turn depend on the entire set of cosmological parameters. Precision measurements of the power spectrum constrain the parameters, with only one essential degeneracy. The microwave background provides, by far, the single most powerful set of constraints on the basic properties of the Universe, and indeed is on the verge of giving definitive answers to most of the historically most important and vexing questions of classical observational cosmology.

### 1.3 Parameter Constraints

Extracting parameter constraints from microwave background power spectrum measurements is conceptually simple, but somewhat difficult in practice. Finding the best-fit cosmological model for a given power spectrum is not hard, but evaluating an error region requires looking around in a multi-dimensional parameter space. Approximations based on linear extrapolations of the likelihood in the above parameters give the right qualitative answer Jungman et al. (1996), but are inadequate to support the currently available data. Brute-force analyses on parameter space grids have been performed Wang et al. (2002), but are not in general sufficiently accurate or flexible for upcoming data.

Monte Carlo techniques are much better, provided that the power spectra for a given cosmological model can be evaluated efficiently enough Christensen et al. (2001); Knox et al. (2001); Lewis and Bridle (2002). To this end, it is convenient to use a different set of cosmological parameters which better reflect the physical effects determining the acoustic peak structure in the power spectra. The following set of physical parameters has several advantages, including being largely uncorrelated and having nearly linear power spectrum dependence Kosowsky et al. (2002a):

* $`𝒜r_s(a_{})/D_A(a_{})`$, where $`r_s(a_{})`$ is the sound horizon at the time of last scattering, and $`D_A(a_{})`$ is the angular diameter distance to the surface of last scattering. This parameter determines the angular scale of the acoustic peaks.
* $`\mathrm{\Omega }_bh^2`$, the baryon density.
* $`𝒱\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda }h^2`$, the vacuum energy density.
* $`a_{}\mathrm{\Omega }_{\mathrm{mat}}/\mathrm{\Omega }_{\mathrm{rad}}`$, the ratio of matter to radiation energy density at last scattering.
* $`(\mathrm{\Omega }_{\mathrm{mat}}^2+a_{}^2\mathrm{\Omega }_{\mathrm{rad}}^2)^{1/2}h^2`$, which is approximately a degenerate direction in the space of physical parameters. It is fixed if the number of neutrino species is assumed known.
* $`𝒵e^{2\tau }`$, which parameterizes the effect of reionization.
* $`n`$, the primordial scalar perturbation power spectrum index.
* $`𝒮`$, the amplitude of the CMB power spectrum due to scalar perturbations at large $`l`$ for $`n=1`$; for fixed $`𝒮`$, varying $`𝒵`$ changes the power spectrum only at large scales.
* $`𝒯`$ and $`n_T`$, the tensor perturbation amplitude and spectral index. Note it is far more convenient to use $`𝒮`$ and $`𝒯`$ separately, rather than their sum and ratio as is customary.

These parameters allow an extremely efficient evaluation of the power spectrum for a given set of cosmological parameters over a large region of parameter space via simple functional approximations; they make Monte Carlo evaluations of parameter space error regions far less demanding computationally Kosowsky et al. (2002a). Also, the parameters give insight into the fundamental physical effects the cosmological parameters have on the power spectrum. Some conclusions are immediate; for example, with these parameters, it is clear that power spectrum measurements at angular scales $`l>1000`$ will give very little additional constraint on any physical parameters besides $`n`$ and $`𝒮`$, because the change in the power spectrum for $`l>1000`$ when the other parameters are varied is negligible. A full sky map with MAP’s angular resolution and sensitivity will provide 1-$`\sigma `$ constraints of approximately 0.5% for $`𝒜`$, 2% for $`𝒮`$, 3% to 5% for $``$, $``$, and $`n`$, 30% for $``$; $`𝒱`$ is essentially undetermined by the CMB alone Kosowsky et al. (2002a).

## 2 The Microwave Background and Fundamental Physics

Beyond simple cosmological parameter estimation, the microwave background can provide other data with potential impact on fundamental physics.

### 2.1 Primordial Power Spectrum

Generally, the primordial power spectra of scalar and tensor perturbations have been parameterized as power laws. This approximation appears to be fairly good in the case of scalar perturbations, and slow-roll models of inflation predict power law spectra. However, more complicated inflation models generically predict departures from exact power laws Salopek et al. (1989), and the microwave background fluctuations have considerable power to measure the primordial power spectrum without prior assumptions about its shape.

The angular scales between $`l=1000`$ and $`l=3500`$ are largely unaffected by variations in the physical parameters in the previous section, and thus reflect the primordial power spectrum directly. However, this is only a factor of 3 in angular scale. To constrain the primordial perturbations over a significantly wider range of scales, the region between $`l=2`$ and $`l=1000`$ must be probed, but here the microwave background fluctuations vary greatly with the other cosmological parameters. The temperature fluctuations alone exhibit a virtual degeneracy between the primordial power spectrum and the effect of the other cosmological parameters on this range of scales Wang et al. (1999). The power spectrum in this range cannot be probed effectively by temperature fluctuations alone, without further assumptions or other measurements of the cosmological parameters. However, the acoustic peaks in the polarization power spectrum are generally out of phase with those in the temperature power spectrum, which breaks this degeneracy to a large extent. Accurate measurement of both the temperature and polarization power spectrum between $`l=2`$ and $`l=3500`$ has the potential to measure directly the primordial power spectrum of scalar perturbations over a significant range in wavenumber Tegmark and Zaldarriaga (2002).

### 2.2 Initial Conditions

Usually, “adiabatic” initial conditions are assumed, which means that the fractional density fluctuations in each particle species are identical. Again, this is the natural prediction of the simplest inflationary models, but in general other fluctuations are possible. Efforts have been made to classify all such “isocurvature” fluctuations Bucher et al. (2000), although no mathematically rigorous classification has yet been obtained. Arbitrary initial conditions greatly expand the parameter space of possible models and reduce the ability to determine the cosmological parameters Bucher et al. (2002); Trotta et al. (2001). The current CMB measurements show that the primordial perturbations are not far from adiabatic; power spectrum measurements of both temperature and polarization have the potential to put fairly sharp limits on the contributions from any other isocurvature components, which in turn could constrain the number of dynamical fields in inflation and their couplings to each other.

### 2.3 Gaussianity

The statistical distribution of the temperature fluctuations on the sky, and not just their power spectrum, is another way to probe the characteristics of the primordial perturbation. Simple inflation models predict the primordial perturbations should be Gaussian random distributed; departures from this prediction would signify a more complicated inflation mechanism or other new physics Bernardeau and Uzan (2002). Gaussianity is a highly special case of all possible fluctuation patterns; no single definitive test for non-Gaussianity exists. Various techniques have been developed in the context of the microwave background (e.g. Rocha et al. (2001); Winitzki and Kosowsky (1997); Ferreira and Magueijo (1997)), but so far all measurements of the temperature fluctuations down to sub-degree angular scales show no statistically significant departure from Gaussianity Park et al. (2001); Shandarin et al. (2002); Kunz et al. (2001).

### 2.4 Gravitational Waves

Inflation generically predicts primordial tensor perturbations, or gravitational waves, with an amplitude proportional to the energy scale of inflation. Tensor perturbations can be cleanly separated from scalar perturbations by observing a B-polarization signal, which is produced by tensor but not by scalar perturbations Kamionkowski et al. (1997b); Kamionkowski and Kosowsky (1998); Zaldarriaga and Seljak (1997). Current measurements of the temperature power spectrum limit the amplitude of tensor perturbations to be no larger than around 20% of the scalar perturbation amplitude. Recently, Knox and collaborators have shown that the B-polarization induced by gravitational lensing provides a lower limit to the amplitude of tensor perturbations which can be detected via microwave background polarization, corresponding to an inflation energy scale of around $`3\times 10^{15}`$ GeV Knox and Song (2002). If inflation occurred at energy scales higher than this, we can eventually expect direct confirmation of the inflationary scenario via detection of the microwave background polarization signal produced by the inevitable inflationary gravitational waves. Note this energy scale is generally below the coupling-constant unification scale in GUT models of particle physics.

### 2.5 Topology

A novel application of full-sky microwave background maps is a strong test for non-trivial large-scale topology of the Universe. While the assumption of local homogeneity and isotropy determines the Friedmann equation governing the expansion of the Universe, it says nothing about large-scale topology (see Lachieze-Rey and Luminet (1995) for a review). Cornish, Spergel, and Starkman Cornish et al. (1998) have proposed an elegant topological test using the cosmic microwave background. They noticed that since the last scattering surface is a sphere, any non-trivial topology, which translates into intersecting the last scattering surface with multiple copies of itself, will lead to circles on the sky with identical temperature patterns. (This is actually only approximately true, because part of the observed temperature fluctuation comes from Doppler shifts at the last scattering surface instead of temperature fluctuations.) The number of these circles and their relative directions and orientations can be used to reconstruct the topology of the Universe Weeks (1998). Only a small number of topologies are possible in Universes with positive or zero spatial curvature, but negatively curved ones can support a rich variety of topologies, including some relatively small compared to the curvature scale Hodgson and Weeks (1994). The MAP satellite has sufficient resolution to perform this test. Related ideas have also been studied Levin et al. (1998); Bond et al. (2000); see Levin (2002) for a recent review.

### 2.6 What Cosmology Offers High-Energy Theorists

Here is a brief list of cosmological information that is relevant to fundamental physics, probed mostly by the microwave background:

* The primordial power spectrum of fluctuations over three decades in wavelength.
* Limits on or characterization of non-Gaussianity in the primordial fluctuations.
* Limits on or characterization of any isocurvature components in the primordial fluctuations.
* Detection of primordial gravitational waves, or a limit on their amplitude.
* Limits on or detection of global topology.
* Expansion rate of the Universe at the epoch of nucleosynthesis Carroll and Kaplinghat (2002).
* Expansion rate of the Universe at recent epochs, either from direct observation of standard candles like SNIa Perlmutter et al. (1999); Garnavich et al. (1998) or from nonlinear fluctuations in the microwave background (see below).
* Constraints on dark matter properties. These come from galaxies and clusters, but are less clean than microwave background conclusions, and are currently in an unsettled state (see, e.g., de Blok et al. (2001)).
* Direct detection of gravitational radiation from the early Universe. This is the other potential direct source of information about the early Universe besides the microwave background, and could potentially probe the electroweak phase transition and similar epochs Kamionkowski et al. (1994); Kosowsky et al. (2002b).

This is the ground on which high-energy theorists must meet cosmologists. A general and largely unaddressed question is in what ways these sources of information can constrain fundamental theories of matter and its interactions. Optimistically, eventually we will have a candidate “theory of everything” with unavoidable cosmological predictions, and the above data sources will serve as a strong test of any such theory.

## 3 Small-Scale Nonlinear Fluctuations

At small angular scales, $`l>3500`$, the power spectrum of microwave background fluctuations becomes dominated by secondary effects from nonlinear structures at recent epochs, not by the primary fluctuations from linear perturbations in the early Universe. MAP will produce the definitive measurement of microwave background temperature fluctuations out to $`l=800`$, and the upcoming Planck satellite will measure the temperature (and polarization) fluctuations out to $`l=3000`$ in many frequency bands before the end of this decade. At that point, observations of the primary temperature anisotropies will largely be exhausted. Presently, attention is shifting to the small-scale, non-linear fluctuations, and particularly the fluctuations induced by clusters of galaxies, the largest gravitationally bound objects in the Universe. Clusters are potentially powerful tracers of the growth of cosmic structure, and thus have the potential for further probes of the fundamental properties of the Universe, though these conclusions will necessarily be accompanied by more severe systematic challenges than for probes based on the primary, linear CMB fluctuations. Below, several interesting aspects of nonlinear CMB fluctuations are sketched.

### 3.1 Thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect

The largest non-linear signal is that of the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect Birkinshaw (1999); Carlstrom et al. (2002), the spectral distortion that occurs when microwave background photons, with an initially blackbody spectrum, are Compton scattered by hot electrons, generally in clusters of galaxies. Lower energy photons are boosted to higher energies; the spectrum amplitude at the “null” of the effect, around 218 GHz (depending slightly on the density and temperature of the electrons), remains constant. In the direction of galaxy clusters, therefore, the microwave radiation appears cooler for frequencies below the null, hotter for frequencies above. The amplitude of this effect can be as large as 1 mK for large clusters of galaxies, much larger than the primary temperature fluctuations. The total spectral distortion is proportional to the product of the electron density and the electron temperature, integrated along the line of sight.

The thermal SZ effect has now been detected for numerous clusters of galaxies, at roughly arcminute angular resolution (e.g. Mauskopf et al. (2000); Reese et al. (2002)). Besides providing direct information about the density and temperature of the gas in galaxy clusters, the great utility of the SZ effect is its independence of cluster redshift: since the induced spectral distortion remains as the microwave background radiation propagates, a given galaxy cluster will produce the same observed SZ distortion independent of its distance from the observer. This is in marked contrast to other methods of observing clusters from their direct emission of radiation. SZ observations hold the promise of cluster catalogs with relatively simple and complete selection functions, which in turn are necessary for any use of galaxy clusters as precision cosmological probes.

### 3.2 Kinematic Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect

A related but smaller nonlinear effect results from the Doppler shift experienced by photons scattering from electrons moving with a coherent peculiar velocity. This bulk velocity induces a blackbody temperature shift of the microwave photons proportional to the radial component of the electrons’ peculiar velocity. (In the mildly nonlinear regime of structure, this effect is known as the Ostriker-Vishniac effect Jaffe and Kamionkowski (1998).) In galaxy clusters, the typical amplitude of this temperature shift is a few $`\mu `$K, much smaller than the thermal effect. The two can be separated by their spectral dependences, in principle. Even though galaxy clusters are highly dynamic objects with significant internal bulk flows due to mergers, the average kinematic SZ signal provides a largely unbiased measure of the cluster’s peculiar radial velocity Nagai et al. (2003). If the kinematic SZ distortion can be extracted reliably for individual galaxy clusters, then galaxy clusters can be used as tracers of the cosmic peculiar velocity field out to redshifts beyond $`z=1`$. Current peculiar velocity surveys extract velocities by estimating the distance to galaxies and then subtracting the inferred Hubble velocity from the observed redshift velocity to obtain a peculiar velocity Willick et al. (1997). Such a procedure quickly becomes dominated by systematic errors at cosmologically modest distances due to the difficulty of accurate distance estimation. The great advantage of the kinematic SZ effect, in comparison, is that it provides a direct peculiar velocity estimate without requiring a distance determination. A peculiar velocity map over a substantial portion of the observable Universe will provide a sharp test of the gravitational instability paradigm of structure growth Juszkiewicz et al. (1999) and a strong consistency check with surveys of the cosmic density field Dodelson et al. (2002); Percival et al. (2001).

### 3.3 Weak Gravitational Lensing

As the microwave background radiation propagates from the last scattering surface to the observer, its geodesics will be altered by the presence of intervening matter inhomogeneities. This gravitational lensing has only small effects on the power spectrum of the microwave background fluctuations Seljak (1996), but does change the pattern of the radiation, inducing a specific form of non-Gaussianity Bernardeau (1997). Lensing creates a correlation between two-point correlations on degree scales and four-point correlations on smaller scales. Recently, algorithms have been developed to reconstruct the lensing mass distribution given a lensed temperature map. Temperature information alone can give the correct qualitative structure, while a high-sensitivity polarization map on scales of a few arcminutes can determine the projected lensing mass distribution to good accuracy on sub-degree scales Hu and Okamoto (2002). The lensing mass distribution can also be determined from shear measurements of background galaxies on comparable angular scales, providing a valuable cross-check. Microwave background lensing has the advantage of a well-defined source redshift, along with completely different systematic errors for these challenging observations.

### 3.4 Strong Gravitational Lensing

In the sky regions of galaxy clusters, the large mass concentration significantly distorts the microwave background temperature pattern. This strong gravitational lensing signal has several distinct features. Most notably, it produces a double-lobe distortion aligned with the temperature gradient of the background fluctuations Seljak and Zaldarriaga (2000). This distortion can be used to reconstruct the cluster mass profile, in principle: while observations of background galaxy shapes yield only information about the relative shear field of the mass distribution, lensing of the microwave background provides direct information about the displacement field induced by the mass distribution. The characteristic angular scale of the strong lensing distortion is an arcminute; on this scale, the primary CMB fluctuations have essentially no power. Thus, in certain regions of the sky where the primary fluctuations are especially regular, the lensing displacement field from a cluster can likely be modelled with good precision and used to estimate cluster masses. Since the displacement is estimated directly, this method has no mass sheet degeneracy, like optical galaxy lensing estimates of cluster masses, and has no uncertainties related to the background source redshift. Ultimately, the accuracy of this cluster mass determination method will depend on how well the background microwave temperature distribution can be modelled, and on how well the blackbody lensing distortion can be separated from the blackbody kinematic SZ distortion. Accurate cluster mass determination is crucial for directly measuring $`N(M,z)`$, the number density of clusters at a given mass and redshift. This function is a highly sensitive probe of the recent growth of structure and constrains the cosmological constant or other “dark energy” contributions, as well as small neutrino masses.

## 4 Future Experimental Prospects: ACT

Experimental techniques for measuring the microwave background radiation are, remarkably, advancing at an accelerating pace. The various kinds of observations outlined in the previous section require, roughly, arcminute resolution maps with micro-Kelvin temperature sensitivity. Such measurements are on the menu for the coming half-decade. As an example, I provide a brief overview of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), an experimental collaboration between Princeton, U. Pennsylvania, Rutgers, NASA Goddard, NIST, and several other smaller partners. This collaboration exhibits many technological and organizational characteristics which we anticipate will come to dominate the microwave background field over the coming decade. Experiments of comparable scope and ambition are also being planned by other groups.

The ACT collaboration plans to construct a custom-designed 6-meter off-axis telescope which is optimized to minimize the systematic errors which can easily dominate any precision measurement of the microwave background radiation. It will scan the sky at fixed elevation by rotating on a turntable; the entire telescope, including ground screens, will rotate as a unit to eliminate any change in side lobes. Constant-elevation scans greatly aid in controlling systematic errors, since the atmospheric emission changes by many hundreds of $`\mu `$K for elevation changes smaller than a degree. A similar design philosophy was used successfully in the Saskatoon Wollack et al. (1993) and MAT Miller et al. (2002) experiments. The telescope will be cited on Cerro Toco in the Atacama Desert of the Chilean Andes, near the site for the ALMA interferometer. Site studies show that the atmospheric signal at microwave frequencies will generally be smaller than our detector noise for all scales $`l>100`$. At this latitude, scans at a constant 45 elevation with an amplidude of $`\pm 1.5^{}`$ can be combined over 24 hours to produce a map of an annular region of sky approximately 2 wide by 120 degrees around. About half the scan will cover the galactic plane and will be useful for galactic astronomy; the other half will be of cosmological quality.

ACT’s novel detector technology will enable it to produce maps of unprecedented sensitivity and angular resolution. We plan to build a “camera” composed of bolometer arrays at three different frequencies, each array containing 1024 square-millimeter transition edge sensor detectors Irwin et al. (1996); Lee et al. (1996). These bolometers are very fast, enabling rapid scanning of the sky. Each individual bolometer’s sensitivity is within a factor of two of the bolometers planned for the Planck satellite; packing them into a large array gives ACT the raw detector sensitivity required for achieving a nominal angular resolution of 1.7’ (at 150 GHz) with a nominal sensitivity per pixel of near 1 $`\mu `$K for a three-month observing campaign. The largest technological challenge of the experiment is fabricating the detector arrays with their associated SQUID multiplexors Chervenak et al. (1999) and other back-end electronics. Current state-of-the-art bolometer arrays employ tens of bolometers; we aim to increase this by a factor of a hundred. The anticipated time scale for building the experiment and observing for two seasons is five years.

The microwave observations from ACT will be combined with an integrated optical and X-ray observing campaign aimed at the galaxy clusters discovered via their SZ signals. Optical observations with the Southern African Large Telescope (currently under construction) and other large telescopes will provide redshifts and galaxy velocity dispersions for hundreds of clusters out to redshift unity, while X-ray observations will give information about gas temperature and density. Through this combination of observations, we aim to construct the most complete and useful cosmological cluster sample to date. We will begin to probe all of the small-scale signals outlined in the previous section.

As spectacular as the advances in microwave background physics have been over the past decade, we can reasonably expect another decade of comparable discovery, with remarkable implications for cosmology, fundamental physics, and astrophysics.

At the time of this writing, the Atacama Cosmology Telescope is a currently pending NSF proposal; Lyman Page (Princeton University) is the Principal Investigator. The author thanks all of the collaborators on this proposal, who are too numerous to list here. This work has been supported in part by NASA’s Space Astrophysics Research and Analysis Program, and by the Cottrell Scholar program of the Research Corporation.