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# Long Period Variables in NGC 5128: II. Near-IR propertiesBased on observations collected at the European Southern Observatory, Paranal, Chile, within the Observing Programmes 63.N-0229, 65.N-0164, 67.B-0503, 68.B-0129 and 69.B-0292, and at La Silla Observatory, Chile, within the Observing Programme 64.N-0176(B).

## 1 Introduction

In intermediate-age populations ($`15`$ Gyr old) numerous bright asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars are located above the tip of the RGB. However, bright stars have also been detected above the tip of the RGB among old populations like Galactic globular clusters with $`[\mathrm{Fe}/\mathrm{H}]1.0`$ dex and in the Galactic bulge (Frogel & Elias frogel&elias88 (1988), Guarnieri et al. guarnieri+97 (1997), Momany et al. momany+03 (2003)), implying the presence of bright AGB stars in metal-rich and old populations. All of the bright giants above the RGB tip in globular clusters seem to be long period variables (LPVs; Frogel & Elias frogel&elias88 (1988), Frogel & Whitelock frogel&whitelock98 (1998)). The frequency of LPVs in old metal-rich globular clusters of the MW and in the Bulge has been studied by Frogel & Whitelock (frogel&whitelock98 (1998)). Old populations of lower metallicity are known not to have AGB stars brighter than the RGB tip.

The brightest LPVs in old stellar populations like the Galactic globular clusters and the old disk in the Milky Way reach $`M_K=8`$ (Mennessier et al. mennessier+01 (2001), Feast et al. feast+02 (2002), Momany et al. momany+03 (2003)). The higher mass (hence younger) LPVs in the LMC and in the disk of our galaxy can be more luminous, reaching $`M_K=9.4`$ (Hughes & Wood hughes&wood90 (1990), Mennessier et al. mennessier+01 (2001)).

There exists a long standing debate about the presence of intermediate-age population in dwarf elliptical galaxies and spiral bulges. On the basis of the Wide Field Camera 1 (WFC1) HST data, Holtzman et al. (holtzman+93 (1993)) and Vallenari et al. (vallenari+96 (1996)) concluded that the majority of stars in the Galactic bulge are of intermediate age. Other studies indicated mainly old metal-rich population (e.g. Frogel et al. frogel+90 (1990), Tiede et al. tiede+95 (1995)). Newer deep optical and near-IR CMDs suggest that the Bulge is old without even a trace of an intermediate-age population (e.g. Ortolani et al. ortolani+95 (1995), Feltzing & Gilmore feltzing&gilmore00 (2000), Zoccali et al. zoccali+03 (2003)). In the M32 dwarf elliptical galaxy the situation might be different, given the presence of an extended giant branch reaching $`M_K=8.7`$ ($`M_{bol}=5.5`$), indicative of an intermediate-age ($`4`$ Gyr) population, which has been revealed by near-IR photometry by Elston & Silva (elston&silva92 (1992)) and Freedman (freedman92 (1992)). However, it is of interest to note that in the deep optical $`VI`$ photometry of M32 with HST, no optically bright AGB stars have been found (Grillmair et al. grillmair+96 (1996)), which might be expected due to large bolometric corrections.

In the gE NGC 5128, Soria et al. (soria+96 (1996)), suggested the presence of up to 10% bright AGB stars belonging to an intermediate-age population, based on a $`VI`$ HST CMD. Marleau et al. (marleau+00 (2000)) made a similar suggestion based on $`JH`$ NICMOS data. Harris et al. (harris+99 (1999, 2000)), on the contrary, do not find any bright AGB stars in their $`VI`$ CMDs of two halo fields in NGC 5128. As mentioned above, $`V`$ and $`I`$ bands are not very sensitive indicators of these cool giants and thus some of them might have been confused with first ascent red giants, foreground stars and few stellar blends or stars with larger photometric errors. In the two fields observed in $`V`$ and $`K`$-bands with VLT (Rejkuba et al. rejkuba+01 (2001)), a large number of bright AGB stars have been detected extending up to bolometric magnitude of $`5`$. Most of these stars have been found to be variables in our long term monitoring programme with ISAAC at VLT. The LPV catalogue has been published by Rejkuba et al. (rejkuba+03 (2003)). Here we analyse near-IR properties of these variables and compare them with the LPV population found in the Magellanic Clouds and in the Galactic bulge, with the aim of constraining the contribution of intermediate-age stars to the NGC 5128 halo population.

## 2 The Catalogue

The LPV variables catalogue in NGC 5128 has been compiled and published by Rejkuba et al. (rejkuba+03 (2003)). The reader is referred to that paper for the details on the data reduction and the determination of periods. In summary, the observations consist of single-epoch 1-hour exposures in $`J_s`$ and $`H`$-bands and multi-epoch photometry in $`K_s`$-band obtained with ISAAC near-IR array at ESO Paranal Observatory with UT1 VLT. The two fields observed are located $`17^{}`$ north-east (Field 1) and $`9^{}`$ south (Field 2) from the center of NGC 5128.

$`K_s`$-band observations span a time interval of 1197 days, from April 1999 till July 2002, with 20 epochs in Field 1 and 23 in Field 2. One additional 45 min observation of Field 2 in $`K_s`$-band with SOFI at the NTT at La Silla Observatory brings the total number of epochs to 24 for that field. It should be noted that SOFI near-IR array is a scaled version of ISAAC and that the $`K_s`$-band filters at the two instruments are identical.

The photometry of this homogeneous data set has been performed with DAOPHOT and ALLFRAME software (Stetson stetson94 (1994)). The 50% completeness limits in $`K_s`$ and $`H`$-bands are at $`22.5`$ for Field 1 and $`21.5`$ for Field 2. In $`J_s`$-band 50% completeness is achieved at $`Js=23.25`$ for Field 1 and $`Js=22.5`$ for Field 2. To all $`K_s`$-band magnitudes from the catalogue (Rejkuba et al. rejkuba+03 (2003)) we have subtracted 0.1 mag. This was necessary in order to match the observed colors of foreground dwarf and giant stars with that of Bessell & Brett (bessell+brett88 (1988)) fiducials (see also Sect. 7.1 and Rejkuba rejkuba03 (2003)). We have re-checked the photometric calibration and most probably this 0.1 offset in $`K`$-band is due to an error in the aperture correction. It should be noted that the aperture corrections in such crowded fields are rather uncertain and very difficult to measure accurately.

There are total of 15574 sources in Field 1 and 18098 in Field 2 that were detected in at least 3 $`K_s`$-band epochs. Restricting the detection to $`J_s`$, $`H`$ and 3 $`K_s`$-band epochs the total number of objects is 13111 and 16434 in Fields 1 and 2, respectively. Among these there are more than 1500 variable stars. For 1046 red variables, with at least 10 $`K_s`$-band measurements, periods and amplitudes were determined with Fourier analysis and then refined with non-linear fitting of sinusoidal function:

$$K(t)=A\mathrm{cos}\left(2\pi \frac{(tt_0)}{P}\right)+B\mathrm{sin}\left(2\pi \frac{(tt_0)}{P}\right)+K_0$$
(1)
In the final catalogue (Rejkuba et al. rejkuba+03 (2003)) periods of variable stars are average values determined from the Fourier analysis and the non-linear sine-curve fitting algorithms, except in the cases where a visual inspection of the light curve clearly preferred one of the two cases. In most cases the two periods were nearly equal (see Rejkuba et al. rejkuba+03 (2003) for simulations and detailed discussion of period accuracy). Amplitudes, $`a=2\times \sqrt{A^2+B^2}`$, and average $`K`$-band magnitudes are derived from sine-curve fitting.

A close inspection of periods of LPVs lying away from the Mira PL relation indicated a problem of aliasing periods of $`1/2`$ and $`1`$ year. For a total of 39 variables the most significant period in Fourier periodogram was shorter, approximately 1/2 year, but they could be equally well fit by twice as long periods. These are listed by Rejkuba (rejkuba03 (2003); Tab. 1). Other 7 variables have possible shorter periods and for 6 more LPVs improved amplitudes and mean magnitudes have been determined, but their periods remained unchanged to within 3%. In the following analysis periods, amplitudes and mean magnitudes from the LPV catalogue (Rejkuba et al. rejkuba+03 (2003)) will be used except for those listed in Tab. 1 of Rejkuba (rejkuba03 (2003)). However, the results of our analysis are not influenced by this choice.

## 3 LPVs in near-IR color-magnitude diagrams

In Fig. 1 we show $`K_s`$. vs. $`J_sK_s`$ color-magnitude diagrams (CMDs) for all the stars detected in at least 3 $`K_s`$-band epochs as well as in $`J_s`$ and $`H`$-band images that had ALLFRAME photometric errors smaller than 0.25 mag. Field 1 CMD is displayed in the left and Field 2 in the right panel. Long period variable stars with reliably determined periods (significance parameter from Fourier analysis $`<0.7`$) are indicated with red circles and green boxes indicate those with less reliable periods (significance $`0.7`$). In the following analysis only those variables with better determined periods (significance $`<0.7`$) will be used. These are 280 LPVs in Field 1 and 617 LPVs in Field 2.

Dotted line at $`K_s=21.24`$ shows RGB tip magnitude measured from the $`K`$-band luminosity function (Rejkuba rejkuba03 (2003)). There is a plume of foreground Galactic stars that are bluer and well separated from the red giants in NGC 5128. According to field simulations from Marigo et al. (marigo+03 (2003)) they are mainly disk stars. In particular, old disk turn-off stars are expected to be distributed mainly at $`(J_sK_s)0.36`$, Galactic RGB and red clump stars have colors around $`(J_sK_s)0.65`$ and low mass dwarfs with $`M0.6`$ M are found around $`(J_sK_s)0.85`$. The fact that they are distributed in vertical sequences is entirely due to a range of distances that they span. No Galactic foreground contamination is expected at $`(J_sK_s)1.0`$, where red giants in NGC 5128 are located. The equivalent $`K_s`$ vs. $`HK_s`$ CMDs are shown in the two lower panels of Fig. 1. Here there is some overlap between the regions where foreground sources and red giants in NGC 5128 are located. It should be noted from these CMDs that, due to the much higher density of stars in Field 2 and slightly worse average seeing during the observations and higher total luminosity sampled, the limiting magnitude is brighter and the photometric scatter is much larger.

The $`K_s`$-band magnitude used to compose $`J_sK_s`$ and $`HK_s`$ colors in Fig. 1 is a single epoch measurement obtained closest in time to the respective $`J_s`$ or $`H`$-band epoch. The time separation between the two is less than 10 days. In contrast, the $`K_s`$ magnitude plotted on the y-axis is a mean value from all the epochs and it well represents mean magnitudes of AGB stars. If a mean $`K_s`$ magnitude is used for $`J_sK_s`$ and $`HK_s`$ color, a much larger scatter in color is observed in the part of the CMD where variable stars are found.

## 4 Amplitude distribution

Amplitudes of the LPVs in NGC 5128 were determined as peak-to-peak magnitude differences of the best fitting sinusoid light-curve. Fig. 2 shows the amplitude distribution of all the LPVs with well determined periods. The majority of variables have $`K`$-band amplitudes of around 0.7 mag, with median value of 0.77 in both Fields. The $`K`$-band amplitudes for LPVs in LMC (e.g. Wood et al. wood+83 (1983)) and in the Solar neighbourhood (e.g. Whitelock et al. whitelock+00 (2000)) range between 0.1 and 1.2 mag. Only a few LPVs in the Sgr I field in the Bulge have $`K`$-band amplitudes larger than 1 mag with the largest amplitude of 2.5 mag.

The dependence of the amplitudes on the mean magnitudes and on the periods is shown in Fig. 3. As was also found for Galactic Mira-like LPVs (Whitelock et al. whitelock+00 (2000)), there is a very weak correlation in the sense that longer period variables tend to have larger amplitudes. Similarly Glass et al. (glass+95 (1995)) found that the large-amplitude stars have periods longer than 350 days in the Sgr I field in the Galactic bulge.

There are only 32 (out of 897) variables with amplitudes smaller than $`\mathrm{\Delta }K<0.4`$. Such small amplitude variables usually tend to have fainter magnitudes. Our catalogue is much less complete for these variables. While some of them may have been detected as variable stars, no reliable periods could be measured for them. Semi-regular variables have smaller amplitudes making the detection of periodic variability even more difficult with a small number of observations. Additionally, some of them might not even be detected as variable due to combination of small amplitudes and photometric uncertainty. They might comprise the large majority of the “non-variable” AGB stars detected in Field 1 (see also the next section).

## 5 Luminosity function

The luminosity functions for all the variables with well determined periods is shown in Fig. 4 with solid line for Field 1 and dotted line for Field 2 LPVs. The luminosity functions in the two fields are very similar.

A detailed calculation of the expected number of LPVs in a $`10`$ Gyr old stellar population according to Renzini’s (renzini98 (1998)) work yields 250-500 LPVs in Field 1 and between 350 and 1500 LPVs in Field 2 (Rejkuba rejkuba03 (2003)). The large uncertainty of the expected number of LPVs in Field 2 comes from highly uncertain total luminosity of this field due to higher number of blends and difficulty to correctly estimate the sky background. The numbers of expected LPVs are in very good agreement with the 437 and 709 LPVs with measured periods in Fields 1 and 2, respectively. This would suggest that the majority of the LPVs belong to an old and metal-rich population similar to that of our Galactic bulge.

Taking into account the foreground Galactic contamination and a probable number of blends, LPVs account for at least 26% and 70% of the extended giant branch population in Fields 1 and 2, respectively (Rejkuba rejkuba03 (2003)). The completeness of the LPV catalogue in the two fields is rather similar as a function of period and amplitude and thus there seems to be an excess of non-variable bright AGB stars in Field 1. At least some 1150 stars brighter than the RGB tip cannot be accounted for by LPVs, foreground stars or blends in Field 1. In Field 2 this number is an order of magnitude lower and can well be accounted by the incompleteness of the variable star catalogue. Basically all the constant luminosity AGB stars in Field 1 are fainter than $`K_s19.8`$. As mentioned above they could be semi-regular variables with amplitudes up to about $`\mathrm{\Delta }K0.3`$ mag, the limit at which the LPV catalogue completeness starts to drop rapidly from $`70\%`$. Virtually no variables with $`\mathrm{\Delta }K0.1`$ or smaller are expected to be detected according to the completeness simulations (Rejkuba et al. rejkuba+03 (2003)). In Field 2 small amplitude variables could be hidden among blends. It should be noted that in the Galactic bulge and in old and metal-rich globular clusters, no constant luminosity stars are expected to be found above the RGB tip (Frogel & Whitelock frogel&whitelock98 (1998), Glass & Schultheis glass+schultheis02 (2002)). New, detailed searches for variable stars in the LMC indicate that the large majority of the stars above the RGB tip, as well as many fainter than the RGB tip, are variable (Wood wood00 (2000), Ita et al. ita+02 (2002), Kiss & Bedding kiss&bedding03 (2003)).

The positions of the brightest LPVs have been carefully checked on the best seeing images. They show that the three brightest Field 1 variables are much brighter than expected, due to blending. One of them, with $`<K>18.1`$ and $`J_sK_s=1.75`$, is actually blended with a background galaxy and the very blue bright LPV at $`J_sK_s=0.55`$ is contaminated by a bright neighbouring foreground star. The brightest 6 LPVs in Field 2 do not seem to suffer any blending.

The comparison of the Field 1 $`K`$-band luminosity function with the luminosity functions of the Galactic bulge (Zoccali et al. zoccali+03 (2003)) and of two bulge fields of the M31 (fields F3 and F4 from Stephens et al. stephens+03 (2003)) is shown in Fig. 5. All luminosity functions have been normalized in the range $`6.5<M_K<5.5`$. Taking into account the blends, NGC 5128 Field 2 luminosity function is similar to that of the Field 1 (see also Rejkuba rejkuba03 (2003)). The tip of the AGB is around $`M_K=7.5`$ in the Galactic bulge. However, Mira variables are known in Baade’s Window and in Sag I fields that can reach $`M_K=8`$ (Glass et al. glass+95 (1995), Shultheis & Glass schultheis+glass01 (2001)), similar to the AGB tip observed in the M31. In NGC 5128 there are many more AGB stars and the tip of the AGB is more than half a magnitude brighter, clearly implying the presence of the intermediate age population in the halo. The tip of the AGB, measured from the average $`K_s`$-band magnitude of the LPVs, is $`K_0=19.3`$. Rejkuba (rejkuba03 (2003)) has measured distance modulus of NGC 5128 of $`27.92\pm 0.19`$ mag, implying that the brightest AGB variables in NGC 5128, which are not brightened by blending, have $`M_K=8.65`$. Bolometric corrections were calculated from Montegriffo et al. (montegriffo+98 (1998)) and the brightest AGB variables in Field 1 have $`M_{bol}=5.3`$, while there are few Miras in Field 2 that reach reach $`M_{bol}=5.7`$ mag. The brightest LPV in Field 2 has actually $`M_K=9.78`$ and $`M_{bol}=6.43`$. Its red colors suggest that it is a long period variable. Its period is 696 days and it lies $`0.8`$ mag above the Mira PL relation (Rejkuba rejkuba03 (2003)). Its amplitude is 0.36 mag, rather low for its long period. Unless it is a blend of two perfectly aligned stars (hence not visible on $`0\stackrel{}{.}36`$ image), it is a good candidate for a hot-bottom burner (Blöcker & Schönberner bloecker+schoenberner91 (1991)).

## 6 Period distribution of LPVs

The distribution of periods for all the variables with good periods is shown in Fig. 6. The distributions for Field 1 and 2 are similar at the long period end, but there is a clearly larger percentage of stars with periods in the range of 250-300 days in Field 2. This is the same period range as the old and metal-rich LPVs in Galactic globular clusters. Since the completeness of the variable star catalogue in this period range is of the order of 80-90%, the larger number of short period variables in Field 2 indicates differences in the stellar populations.

The shortest periods are 160 and 155 days, respectively. The longest reliable periods are 1097 in Field 1 and 1229 in Field 2. Due to the limited time interval spanned by the observations, amounting to 1197 days, most of the variables with well determined periods, hence observed through at least one to two periods, have periods shorter than 600-700 days. If there is a larger population of variables with periods in excess of $`700`$ days, only those with larger amplitudes would be detected. The steep drop in the period distribution present already around P=500 days indicates that there is no significant population of such very long period variables. In the present distribution, LPVs with periods longer than 500 days make 10% and 11% of the population in Fields 1 and 2, respectively. For periods longer than 550 days, the contribution to the distribution drops to 4% and 6%. The average period of 897 LPVs with well determined periods is 395 days. For 52 variables, periods were revised by Rejkuba (rejkuba03 (2003)). If instead, for all the stars periods from the LPV catalogue (Rejkuba et al. rejkuba+03 (2003)) are used, the average period is 388 days.

There are 58 variables in Field 1 and 25 in Field 2 for which best fitting periods were shorter than 150 days. However, all of these period determinations are less secure. Some short period variables, belonging to Cepheid class are expected to be found in Field 1 where a conspicuous recent star formation is observed (Mould et al. mould+00 (2000), Rejkuba et al. rejkuba+01 (2001)). Their colors would be bluer than those of Miras and semi-regulars. Most of the blue variables detected in our fields are unfortunately blended with foreground stars.

The period distribution of LPVs in NGC 5128 can be compared with period distributions of LPVs in other stellar systems (see Fig. 7). In old and metal-rich Galactic globular clusters, Miras span a rather narrow range of periods $`140P310`$ (Feast et al. feast+02 (2002)), while local Miras have periods ranging from $`100`$ to $`550`$ days (Whitelock et al. whitelock+00 (2000)). According to Whitelock et al. (whitelock+91 (1991)) there is no significant population of Miras with periods longer than $`700`$ days in the Galactic bulge. However, their result is in disagreement with Harmon & Gilmore (harmon&gilmore88 (1988)) and Blommaert et al. (blommaert+98 (1998)). These last authors found some OH/IR variables with periods in excess of 2000 days in the Galactic bulge. Glass et al. (glass+95 (1995)) and Schultheis & Glass (schultheis+glass01 (2001)) have analysed Sgr I field and Baade’s window in the Galactic bulge. The average period of 70 LPVs in Sgr I field is $`P_{av}=333`$ day. In the Galactic Centre field the average period of LPVs is 427 days, while that of the OH/IR stars amounts to 524 days (Glass et al. glass+01 (2001)). Apparently, longer-period, hence younger, LPVs are concentrated more towards the Galactic Centre, where a mix of young and old populations is observed due to a recent ($`1`$ Gyr old) starburst.

Glass et al. (glass+95 (1995)) discussed the dependence of the type of LPVs discovered on the technique, in the sense that optical searches found principally shorter period Miras, while infrared techniques (IRAS and OH/IR sources) preferentially found longer period Miras. In our near-IR search, most of the short and longer period Miras should be discovered, with the exception of the most dust enshrouded OH/IR sources, if these were present. We find in our fields as well that the periods of the redder Miras are typically longer as shown by the shaded histogram in Fig. 7. Unfortunately due to rather low statistics it is not possible at this moment to make similar comparisons in other systems.

In the LMC LPVs (including Mira and SR variables) span a range of periods from about 20 to $`1000`$ days (e.g. Wood wood00 (2000), Cioni et al. cioni+01 (2001), Kiss & Bedding kiss&bedding03 (2003)).

It has been now quite firmly established that the period of Mira variables represents a good indicator of the stellar population to which it belongs (Feast & Whitelock feast+whitelock87 (1987)). Longer period Miras are expected to have higher mass progenitors and therefore belong to a younger population (e.g. Iben & Renzini iben+renzini83 (1983), Jura & Kleinmann 1992a ; 1992b , Kerschbaum & Hron kerschbaum&hron92 (1992), Feast & Whitelock feast+whitelock00 (2000)).

Unfortunately a precise empirical calibration of the initial mass or, equivalently, the age vs. period of Miras is lacking. It can be either inferred from the kinematical properties of Miras in the solar neighbourhood (Feast feast63 (1963), Feast & Whitelock feast+whitelock00 (2000)), or from the observations of Miras in simple stellar populations like star clusters. According to Feast & Whitelock (feast+whitelock87 (1987)), the kinematic age of a 400 day Mira is of the order of $`5`$ Gyr and an 850 day period Mira would be younger than about 4 Gyr. Feast (feast96 (1996)) on the other hand explored the metallicity dependence of the mass-period relation for Miras and suggested that a 400 day Mira with a solar metallicity would have a mass of $`1.4M_{}`$. According to models (Iben & Renzini iben+renzini83 (1983), Vassiliadis & Wood vassiliadis+wood93 (1993)) a 400 day Mira would have initial mass of about $`1.0M_{}`$. However, it should be remembered that the age of the AGB star with a $`1.0M_{}`$ progenitor will strongly depend on metallicity. The more metal-rich, the older the star, assuming a constant mass. For example, the turn-off age for a Z=0.004 star of $`1.0M_{}`$ is $`4.6`$ Gyr, while a same mass solar-metallicity turn-off star would be 7.7 Gyr old (Pietrinferni et al. 2003, in preparation). Turn-off age for a solar metallicity star of $`1.4M_{}`$ is less than 3 Gyr.

Miras in the old and metal-rich globular clusters have ages of the order of 10–12 Gyr, with corresponding masses of the order of $`0.60.7M_{}`$ and periods around $`250`$ days. Another empirical point, calibrating the mass-period relation is given by Nishida et al. (nishida+00 (2000)), who have determined periods of 3 Miras in the LMC star clusters with ages of 1.6 to 2.0 Gyr. All three Miras have similar periods ranging from 491 to 528 days and they follow the Mira PL relations determined from shorter-period stars (Feast et al. feast+89 (1989)).

NGC 5128 has a similar period distribution to Galactic bulge Miras, but there is a tail with some $`10\%`$ of the Miras having periods longer than 500 days. Unless this is purely due to age-metallicity-period degeneracy, we conclude that this is an evidence for an intermediate-age AGB component in the NGC 5128 halo.

## 7 Are there C-stars in NGC 5128?

### 7.1 Color-color diagram

Color-color diagrams for all the stars with ALLFRAME photometry errors smaller than 0.25 are shown in Fig. 8. Magnitudes have been de-reddened adopting a foreground reddening of $`\mathrm{E}(\mathrm{B}\mathrm{V})=0.11`$ and a Cardelli et al. cardelli+89 (1989) reddening law. A reddening vector corresponding to $`\mathrm{E}(\mathrm{B}\mathrm{V})=0.5`$ is plotted. As for Fig. 1, single-epoch $`K`$-band magnitudes closest in time to $`J`$ and $`H`$-band measurements are used to form colors. The solid (red) line is a Bessell & Brett (bessell+brett88 (1988)) fiducial to the Galactic giants and the dashed (blue) line is for dwarfs. Bessell & Brett filters have been transformed to the photometric system of ISAAC (Chris Lidman, private communication).

Carbon stars are typically found among intermediate-age metal-poor populations. Single stars enter the AGB phase as oxygen-rich (O-rich) and they can be converted to carbon-rich (C-rich) after the products of nuclear burning are brought up to the surface during thermal pulses. Due to the lower oxygen abundance of a metal-poor star, fewer C-atoms are needed to convert it into a C-rich star than is the case for a more metal-rich star. The ratio of the number of carbon-rich stars to oxygen-rich stars (C/M ratio) can therefore be used to derive metallicity gradients (Cioni & Habing, cioni+habing03 (2003)). Detecting carbon stars in NGC 5128 is important because their presence would be a definite proof of an intermediate-age and metal-poor component. Their origin might belong to a recently accreted metal-poor, LMC-like companion galaxy.

Carbon stars in the LMC have $`1.5<JK_s<2.0`$. Stars redder than $`JK_s>2.0`$ are obscured and can either be O-rich or C-rich (Cioni et al. cioni+01 (2001)). In the $`HK`$ vs. $`JH`$ color-color diagram, carbon stars are located redwards of $`HK0.4`$ and $`JH0.8`$. However, O-rich LPVs can also be found there. According to Bessell & Brett (bessell+brett88 (1988)) there should be no O-rich LPVs redder than $`HK1.0`$ and $`JH1.4`$ (see their Fig. A3). There are 11 stars in Field 1 and 15 in Field 2 with $`HK`$ and $`JH`$ colors consistent with being carbon stars and all but three of them have periods longer than 450 days and the average period of these stars is 526 days. Their mean amplitude is 1.2 mag. All of them have $`J_sK_s>2.5`$. Very red $`J_sK_s`$ colors and large amplitudes indicate that they probably have circumstellar shells.

A comparison of these stars with obscured C-rich and O-rich AGB variables in the LMC (Whitelock et al. whitelock+03 (2003)) is shown in Fig. 9. The LMC O-rich AGB stars are plotted with open circles and the C-rich stars with crosses. NGC 5128 candidate C-rich LPVs are plotted as filled blue circles (Field 1) and filled red squares (Field 2). In order to facilitate the comparison, ISAAC data have been transformed into the SAAO photometric system. Cohen et al. (cohen+81 (1981)) have shown that the $`(HK)`$ and $`(JH)`$ colors of optically visible C-rich stars in the Milky Way are correlated due to line blanketing by molecular absorption bands (shown as dashed line labelled “MW C-rich”). The correlation for the optically visible C-rich stars in the LMC (dashed line labelled “LMC C-rich”) was published by Costa & Frogel (costa+frogel96 (1996)), while the correlations for the obscured C-rich (green solid line labelled “MW C-rich”) and O-rich (magenta solid line labelled “MW O-rich”) Milky Way stars comes from Guglielmo et al. (guglielmo+93 (1993)). All four correlation equations are taken from van Loon (vanloonPhD (1999)), who transformed them to $`(HK)`$ and $`(JK)`$ on the SAAO system. Stars lying along the correlations for obscured O-rich and C-rich stars could belong to either category, but the majority lies along the lines where optically visible C-stars are found. These are bona fide C-star candidates. However, more C-stars could be present among the long-period stars with somewhat bluer colors, but without spectroscopy they cannot be distinguished from the obscured O-rich LPVs.

### 7.2 Period-color distributions

Color-log period diagrams for NGC 5128 LPVs are shown in Fig. 10. For comparison, a linear fit to the LMC color-log period relations (Feast et al. feast+89 (1989)) are shown as solid lines. They have been shifted to the ISAAC photometric system. It should be noted that these linear relations are valid only for $`P<420`$ day. As for Figs. 1 and 8, single-epoch $`K`$-band magnitudes closest in time to $`J`$ and $`H`$-band measurements were used to form colors. This produces a large scatter around the mean Period-color relation. The scatter is the largest in $`JH`$ vs. log(P) diagram where the phase difference between the observations is larger and thus some colors might even be non-physical.

$`(JH)_0`$ and $`(JK)_0`$ colors are likely to be affected differently by metallicity changes, but also by gravity and atmospheric extension. Whitelock et al. (whitelock+91 (1991)) have compared $`(JH)_0`$ and $`(JK)_0`$ vs. $`\mathrm{log}P`$ diagrams for the LMC, the Galactic globular clusters, the solar neighbourhood and the Galactic bulge. Their conclusion is that at a given period, colors of Miras in these different environments are very similar. However, Miras in the Sgr I field of the Galactic bulge (Glass et al. glass+95 (1995)) have redder $`(HK)_0`$ and slightly bluer $`(JH)_0`$ colors than the LMC Miras at a given period, while $`(JK)_0`$ colors do not show so large offset. Feast (feast96 (1996)) reports the mean $`(JK)_0`$ color-period relation for Sgr I Miras studied by Glass et al. (glass+95 (1995)) which has quite a different slope with respect to the LMC relation. He ascribes the difference to metallicity differences. The SgrI relation is shown in the $`(JK)_0`$ color–log P diagram as a long dashed line. It provides much better fit to NGC 5128 LPVs and suggests a similar metallicity as in the Galactic bulge. The large scatter around the color-period relation due to random phase $`J_s`$-band observations and possible abundance spread within NGC 5128 halo (e.g. Harris et al. harris+99 (1999), Rejkuba et al. rejkuba+01 (2001)) prevents us from drawing more quantitative comparison.

Some very red stars are present among the longest period variables in NGC 5128. This has also been seen in the LMC, the solar neighbourhood and the Bulge (Glass et al. glass+95 (1995), Kiss & Bedding kiss&bedding03 (2003)), and is ascribed to the presence of cool circumstellar shells arising from mass loss. Such shells contribute principally at longer wavelengths creating an infrared excess. Actually there are 113 sources in Field 1 and 236 in Field 2 with $`K_s`$-band magnitudes brighter than the RGB tip and no $`J_s`$ or $`H`$-band counterparts. Many of these could be dust enshrouded LPVs similar to those found in the central parts of the Milky Way by van Loon et al. (vanloon+03 (2003)). Unfortunately, periods could only be measured for a handful of them.

## 8 Conclusions

We have analysed near-IR properties of 897 LPVs with well determined periods and $`J_sHK_s`$ photometry in two halo fields in NGC 5128. Mostly they are found to be brighter than the tip of the RGB ($`K_s<21.24`$; Rejkuba rejkuba03 (2003)) with magnitudes ranging from about $`K=19`$ to $`K=21.5`$. They have periods between 155 and 1000 days and K-band amplitudes between 0.1 and 2 mag, characteristic of semi-regular and Mira variables. They obey the same period-luminosity relation as found in the Magellanic Clouds, Solar neighbourhood and the Galactic bulge (Rejkuba rejkuba03 (2003)). Here we have compared the colors, periods and amplitudes of these variables with those found in old stellar populations like Galactic globular clusters and Galactic bulge as well as with intermediate-age Magellanic Cloud long period variables.

There is an excess of short period, globular cluster-like, Mira variables in Field 2 showing the differences between the stellar populations of the two fields. The brightness of the AGB tip, which occurs around $`M_K=8.65`$ in NGC 5128, corresponding to $`M_{bol}=5.3`$, compared to $`M_K=8`$ in the Galactic bulge (Zoccali et al. zoccali+03 (2003)) and in the M31 bulge, (Stephens et al. stephens+03 (2003)) is an evidence for a $`4`$ Gyr old component (Mould & Aaronson mould&aaronson82 (1982)). Some 10% of the long period $`P>500`$ day Miras are expected to have ages younger than 7 Gyr and could be as young as $`34`$ Gyr old. Approximately two dozen C-star candidates are identified, but more could be present among the reddened long period variables. C-stars are expected to be found only among metal-poor AGB stars.

###### Acknowledgements.

We thank Chris Lidman for providing the transformation equations for ISAAC filters and Santi Cassissi for providing the stellar evolutionary tracks used to estimate ages. MR thanks M.-R. Cioni and A. Renzini for some interesting discussions. DM is sponsored by FONDAP Center for Astrophysics 15010003. TRB is grateful to the Australian Research Council and P. Universidad Católica for financial support and to the DITAC International Science & Technology Program.


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# The probability of making a correct decision in hypotheses testing as estimator of quality of planned experiments S.I. Bityukov, N.V. Krasnikov

## I Introduction

One of the common goals in the forthcoming experiments is the search for new phenomena. In estimation of the discovery potential of the planned experiments the background cross section (for example, the Standard Model cross section) is calculated and, for the given integrated luminosity $`L`$, the average number of background events is $`n_b=\sigma _bL`$. Suppose the existence of new physics leads to additional nonzero signal cross section $`\sigma _s`$ with the same signature as for the background cross section that results in the prediction of the additional average number of signal events $`n_s=\sigma _sL`$ for the integrated luminosity $`L`$. The total average number of the events is $`<n>=n_s+n_b=(\sigma _s+\sigma _b)L`$. So, as a result of new physics existence, we expect an excess of the average number of events. Let us suppose the probability of the realization of $`n`$ events in the experiment is described by function $`f(n;\lambda )`$ with parameter $`\lambda `$.

In the report the approach to estimation of quality of planned experiments is considered. This approach is based on the analysis of uncertainty, which will take place under the future hypotheses testing about the existence of a new phenomenon in Nature.

We consider a statistical hypothesis

$`H_0`$: new physics is present in Nature

against an alternative hypothesis

$`H_1`$: new physics is absent in Nature.

The value of uncertainty is defined by the values of the probability to reject the hypothesis $`H_0`$ when it is true (Type I error)

$`\alpha `$ = $`P(rejectH_0|H_0istrue)`$

and the probability to accept the hypothesis $`H_0`$ when the hypothesis $`H_1`$ is true (Type II error)

$`\beta `$ = $`P(acceptH_0|H_0isfalse)`$.

Here $`\alpha `$ is a significance of the test and $`1\beta `$ is a power of the test.

We propose to use as estimator of the quality of planned experiments the probability of making a correct decision in the future hypotheses testing $`1\widehat{\kappa }`$

$$1\widehat{\kappa }=1\frac{\widehat{\alpha }+\widehat{\beta }}{2},$$
(1)
and as estimator of the distinguishability of the hypotheses $`1\stackrel{~}{\kappa }`$

$$1\stackrel{~}{\kappa }=1\frac{\widehat{\alpha }+\widehat{\beta }}{2(\widehat{\alpha }+\widehat{\beta })},$$
(2)
where $`\widehat{\alpha }`$ and $`\widehat{\beta }`$ are the estimators of Type I error $`\alpha `$ and Type II error $`\beta `$ calculated by the applying of the equal-tailed test ($`\widehat{\alpha }=\widehat{\beta }`$).

The $`1\widehat{\kappa }`$ is the estimator of quality of planned experiments. This estimator allows to take into account systematics and statistical uncertainties b2  in determination of signal and background rates. The $`1\widehat{\kappa }`$ have no dependence on the choice what is $`H_0`$, what is $`H_1`$. This value is free from restrictions of such type. It is an advantage of our approach. We also propose to use an equal probability test b1  as a good approximation of the equal-tailed test for estimation of the probabilities $`\widehat{\alpha }`$ and $`\widehat{\beta }`$ in the case of Poisson distributions.

## II What is meant by the probability of making a correct decision in hypotheses testing?

Suppose that the probability of the realization of $`n`$ events in experiment is described by the function $`f(n;\lambda )`$ with parameter $`\lambda `$ and we know the expected number of signal events $`n_s`$ and expected number of background events $`n_b`$.

Let us determine what we mean by the probability of making a correct decision under the future hypotheses testing about the presence or absence of the new phenomenon in Nature in case of carrying out the planned experiment. Let us use the frequentist approach, i.e. consider all the possible results of the experiment in cases when both the hypothesis $`H_0`$ is true or the hypothesis $`H_1`$ is true, define the criterion for the hypothesis choice and calculate the probability of making a correct decision. It is possible, because we construct the critical area in such a way that the probability of incorrect and, correspondingly, correct choice in favour of one of the hypothesis have no dependence on whether true is $`H_0`$ or $`H_1`$. So, we will consider 2 conditional distributions of probabilities (see, Fig.1)

$$\{\begin{array}{cc}f_0(n)=f(n;n_s+n_b),\hfill & \\ f_1(n)=f(n;n_b)\hfill & \end{array}$$
(3)
making numerical calculations. We suppose that any prior suppositions about $`H_0`$ and $`H_1`$ can be included to $`f_0(n)`$ and $`f_1(n)`$.

After choosing a critical value (or a critical area) same way, it is possible to count up the estimators of Type I error $`(\widehat{\alpha })`$ and Type II error $`(\widehat{\beta })`$.

In the case of applying the equal-tailed test their combination

$$\widehat{\kappa }=\frac{\widehat{\alpha }+\widehat{\beta }}{2}$$
(4)
is the probability of making incorrect choice in favour of one of the hypothesis.

The explanation is very simple. In actuality we must estimate the random value $`\kappa =\alpha +\beta =\widehat{\kappa }+e`$, where $`\widehat{\kappa }`$ is a constant term and $`e`$ is a stochastic term. The $`\alpha `$ is a fraction of incorrect decisions if the hypothesis $`H_0`$ takes place. In this case the $`\beta `$ is absent because the hypothesis $`H_1`$ is not realised in Nature. Correspondingly, the $`\beta `$ is a fraction of incorrect decisions if the hypothesis $`H_1`$ takes place. In this case the $`\alpha `$ is absent. Let us the hypothesis $`H_0`$ be true then the Type I error equals $`\widehat{\alpha }`$ and the error of our estimator (Eq.4) is $`\widehat{e}=\widehat{\kappa }\widehat{\alpha }={\displaystyle \frac{\widehat{\alpha }+\widehat{\beta }}{2}}\widehat{\alpha }={\displaystyle \frac{\widehat{\alpha }\widehat{\beta }}{2}}`$. If hypothesis $`H_1`$ is true then the Type II error equals $`\widehat{\beta }`$ and the error of the estimator is $`\widehat{e}=\widehat{\kappa }\widehat{\beta }={\displaystyle \frac{\widehat{\alpha }+\widehat{\beta }}{2}}\widehat{\beta }={\displaystyle \frac{\widehat{\alpha }\widehat{\beta }}{2}}`$. By this mean the stochastic term takes the values $`\pm {\displaystyle \frac{\widehat{\alpha }\widehat{\beta }}{2}}`$ and if we require $`\widehat{\alpha }=\widehat{\beta }`$ then both errors of the estimation are equal to 0 ($`\widehat{\kappa }\widehat{\alpha }=\widehat{\kappa }\widehat{\beta }=0`$). As a result the estimator (Eq.4) gives the probability of making an incorrect decision in future hypotheses testing. Really, if $`\widehat{\alpha }=\widehat{\beta }`$ and the $`H_0`$ takes place in Nature then $`\widehat{\kappa }=(\widehat{\alpha }+\widehat{\beta })/2=2\widehat{\alpha }/2=\alpha `$. In the same manner $`\widehat{\kappa }=\beta `$ if the $`H_1`$ takes place. Accordingly, $`1\widehat{\kappa }`$ is the probability to make a correct choice under the given critical value.

Under the hypotheses testing we can also estimate the measure $`1\stackrel{~}{\kappa }`$ of distinguishability of the hypotheses $`H_0`$ and $`H_1`$ 111If we will use the geometric approach (let us the $`A`$ is a set of possible realizations of the result of the planned experiment if the hypothesis $`H_0`$ takes place in Nature and the $`B`$ is a set of possible realizations of the result of the planned experiment if the hypothesis $`H_1`$ takes place) then we have the total number of the possibilities for decision equals to $`AB`$ and the fraction of incorrect decisions will be $`\stackrel{~}{\kappa }={\displaystyle \frac{AB}{AB}}={\displaystyle \frac{\widehat{\alpha }+\widehat{\beta }}{2(\widehat{\alpha }+\widehat{\beta })}}`$.  by the calculation of

$$\stackrel{~}{\kappa }=\frac{\widehat{\alpha }+\widehat{\beta }}{2(\widehat{\alpha }+\widehat{\beta })}.$$
(5)
There are 3 possibilities.

* Distributions $`f_0(n)`$ and $`f_1(n)`$ have no overlapping, hence, the distributions are completely distinguishable and any result of the experiment will give the correct choice between hypotheses, i.e. $`\stackrel{~}{\kappa }=0`$.
* Distributions $`f_0(n)`$ and $`f_1(n)`$ coincide completely. It means, that it is impossible to get a correct answer, i.e. $`f_0(n)`$ and $`f_1(n)`$ are not distinguishable, i.e. $`\stackrel{~}{\kappa }=1`$.
* Distributions $`f_0(n)`$ and $`f_1(n)`$ do not coincide, but they have an overlapping, i.e. $`\stackrel{~}{\kappa }`$ is ratio of the probability of making incorrect choice to probability making correct choice in favour of one of the hypothesis.

## III The choice of critical area

Let the probability of the realization of $`n`$ events in the experiment be described by Poisson distribution with parameter $`\lambda `$, i.e.

$$f(n;\lambda )=\frac{\lambda ^n}{n!}e^\lambda .$$
(6)
In this case the estimators of Type I and II errors, which will take place in testing of hypothesis $`H_0`$ versus hypothesis $`H_1`$, can be written as follows:

$$\{\begin{array}{cc}\widehat{\alpha }=\underset{i=0}{\overset{n_c}{}}f(i;n_s+n_b)=\underset{i=0}{\overset{n_c}{}}f_0(i),\hfill & \\ \widehat{\beta }=1\underset{i=0}{\overset{n_c}{}}f(i;n_b)=1\underset{i=0}{\overset{n_c}{}}f_1(i),\hfill & \end{array}$$
(7)
where $`n_c`$ is a critical value. Correspondingly, the magnitude $`\widehat{\kappa }={\displaystyle \frac{\widehat{\alpha }+\widehat{\beta }}{2}}`$ will have minimal value under applying of the equal probability test b1  with critical value (see, Fig.1)

$$n_c=[\frac{n_s}{ln(n_s+n_b)ln(n_b)}],$$
(8)
where square brackets mean the integer part of a number. It is easy to show that the $`\widehat{\kappa }`$ has a minimum if we require $`f_0(i)=f_1(i)`$ (for discrete distributions it corresponds to condition $`f_0(i)f_1(i)`$), i.e.

$$\frac{n_b^{n_c}e^{n_b}}{n_c!}=\frac{(n_s+n_b)^{n_c}e^{(n_s+n_b)}}{n_c!}.$$
(9)
It is direct consequence of the equation

$$\widehat{\kappa }=\frac{\widehat{\alpha }+\widehat{\beta }}{2}=\frac{1}{2}(1\underset{i=0}{\overset{n_c}{}}(f_1(i)f_0(i))).$$
(10)
The value of $`\widehat{\kappa }`$ decreases with increasing of $`i`$ from $`0`$ up to $`i=n_c`$. As soon as $`f_0(i)>f_1(i)`$ the value of $`\widehat{\kappa }`$ increases.

Note that the equal probability test gives the results close to the results of the equal-tailed test in the case of Poisson distributions and we use it hereafter.

Following the given discourse, we can choose critical values so that $`\widehat{\kappa }`$ could be minimal and the probability of correct decision $`1\widehat{\kappa }`$ \- maximum for any pair of distributions. As a result it is possible to say, that the value $`1\widehat{\kappa }`$ under the optimum choice of critical value characterises the quality of planned experiment.

Notice, that such approach works for arbitrary distributions (see, Fig.2), including multidimentional ones.

## IV How to take into account the statistical uncertainty in the determination of $`n_s`$ and $`n_b`$?

Let the values $`n_s=\widehat{n}_s`$ and $`n_b=\widehat{n}_b`$ be known from Monte Carlo calculations. In this case they are random variables. These values can be considered as estimators of unknown parameters. Consequently, the values $`n_c`$, $`\alpha `$ and $`\beta `$ are also random variables. It means that $`1\widehat{\kappa }`$ is the estimator of the probability of making a correct decision in hypotheses testing. Let us consider how the uncertainties in the knowledge of $`n_s`$ and $`n_b`$ influence the value of magnitude of the Probability of Making a Correct Decision in hypotheses testing (PMCD) $`1\widehat{\kappa }`$. Suppose, as before, that the streams of signal and background events are Poisson’s.

Let us write down the density of Gamma distribution $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_{a,n+1}`$ as 222Here the traditional designations of Gamma-distribution $`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{\beta }}`$, $`\alpha `$ and $`x`$ is replaced by $`a`$, $`n+1`$ and $`\lambda `$, correspondingly.

$$g_n(a,\lambda )=\frac{a^{n+1}}{\mathrm{\Gamma }(n+1)}e^{a\lambda }\lambda ^n,$$
(11)
where $`a`$ is a scale parameter, $`n+1>0`$ is a shape parameter, $`\lambda >0`$ is a random variable, and $`\mathrm{\Gamma }(n+1)=n!`$ is a Gamma function.

Let us set $`a=1`$, then for each $`n`$ a continuous function

$$g_n(\lambda )=\frac{\lambda ^n}{n!}e^\lambda ,\lambda >0,n>1$$
(12)
is the density of Gamma distribution $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_{1,n+1}`$ with the scale parameter $`a=1`$ (see Fig.3). The mean, mode, and variance of this distribution are given by $`n+1,n`$, and $`n+1`$, respectively.

As it follows from the article Jaynes  (see, also Frodesen ) and is clearly seen from the identity b4  (Fig.4)

$$\underset{n=\widehat{n}+1}{\overset{\mathrm{}}{}}f(n;\lambda _1)+_{\lambda _1}^{\lambda _2}g_{\widehat{n}}(\lambda )𝑑\lambda +\underset{n=0}{\overset{\widehat{n}}{}}f(n;\lambda _2)=1,i.e.$$
(13)
$`{\displaystyle \underset{n=\widehat{n}+1}{\overset{\mathrm{}}{}}}{\displaystyle \frac{\lambda _1^ne^{\lambda _1}}{n!}}+{\displaystyle _{\lambda _1}^{\lambda _2}}{\displaystyle \frac{\lambda ^{\widehat{n}}e^\lambda }{\widehat{n}!}}𝑑\lambda +{\displaystyle \underset{n=0}{\overset{\widehat{n}}{}}}{\displaystyle \frac{\lambda _2^ne^{\lambda _2}}{n!}}=1`$

for any $`\lambda _10`$ and $`\lambda _20`$, the probability of true value of parameter of Poisson distribution to be equal to the value of $`\lambda `$ in the case of one observation $`\widehat{n}`$ has probability density of Gamma distribution $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_{1,1+\widehat{n}}`$. The Eq.(13) shows that we can mix Bayesian and frequentist probabilities in the given approach. This identity does not leave a place for any prior except uniform. The bounds $`\lambda _1`$ and $`\lambda _2`$ fix it.

It allows to transform the probability distributions $`f(i;n_s+n_b)`$ and $`f(i;n_b)`$ accordingly to calculate the probability of making a correct decision

$$\{\begin{array}{cc}\widehat{\alpha }=_0^{\mathrm{}}g_{n_s+n_b}(\lambda )\underset{i=0}{\overset{n_c}{}}f(i;\lambda )d\lambda =\underset{i=0}{\overset{n_c}{}}\frac{C_{n_s+n_b+i}^i}{2^{n_s+n_b+i+1}},\hfill & \\ \widehat{\beta }=1_0^{\mathrm{}}g_{n_b}(\lambda )\underset{i=0}{\overset{n_c}{}}f(i;\lambda )d\lambda =1\underset{i=0}{\overset{n_c}{}}\frac{C_{n_b+i}^i}{2^{n_b+i+1}},\hfill & \\ 1\widehat{\kappa }=1\frac{\widehat{\alpha }+\widehat{\beta }}{2}.\hfill & \end{array}$$
(14)
Here the critical value $`n_c`$ under the future hypotheses testing about the observability is chosen in accordance with test of equal probability (Eq.8) and $`C_N^i`$ is $`{\displaystyle \frac{N!}{i!(Ni)!}}`$. Also we suppose that the Monte Carlo luminosity is exactly the same as the data luminosity later in the experiment.

The Poisson distributed random values have a property: if $`\xi _iPois(\lambda _i),i=1,2,\mathrm{},m`$ then $`{\displaystyle \underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{}}}\xi _iPois({\displaystyle \underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{}}}\lambda _i)`$. It means that if we have $`m`$ observations $`\widehat{n}_1`$, $`\widehat{n}_2`$, $`\mathrm{}`$, $`\widehat{n}_m`$ of the same random value $`\xi Pois(\lambda )`$, we can consider these observations as one observation $`{\displaystyle \underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{}}}\widehat{n}_i`$ of the Poisson distributed random value with parameter $`m\lambda `$. According to Eq.(13) the probability of true value of parameter of this Poisson distribution has probability density of Gamma distribution $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_{1,1+_{i=1}^m\widehat{n}_i}`$. Using the scale parameter $`m`$ one can show that the probability of true value of parameter of Poisson distribution in the case of $`m`$ observations of the random value $`\xi Pois(\lambda )`$ has probability density of Gamma distribution $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_{m,1+_{i=1}^m\widehat{n}_i}`$, i.e. (see Eq.(11))

$`G(\widehat{n}_i,m,\lambda )=g_{(_{i=1}^m\widehat{n}_i)}(m,\lambda )=`$

$$\frac{m^{(1+_{i=1}^m\widehat{n}_i)}}{(_{i=1}^m\widehat{n}_i)!}e^{m\lambda }\lambda ^{(_{i=1}^m\widehat{n}_i)}.$$
(15)
Let us assume that the integrated luminosity of planned experiment is $`L`$ and the integrated luminosity of Monte Carlo data is $`mL`$. For instance, we can divide the Monte Carlo data into $`m`$ parts with luminosity corresponding to the planned experiment. The result of Monte Carlo experiment in this case looks as set of $`m`$ pairs of numbers $`((n_b)_i,(n_b)_i+(n_s)_i)`$, where $`(n_b)_i`$ and $`(n_s)_i`$ are the numbers of background and signal events observed in each part of Monte Carlo data. Let us denote $`N_b={\displaystyle \underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{}}}(n_b)_i`$ and $`N_{s+b}={\displaystyle \underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{}}}((n_s)_i+(n_b)_i)`$. Correspondingly (see page 98, Frodesen ),

$$\{\begin{array}{cc}\widehat{\alpha }=_0^{\mathrm{}}G(N_{b+s},m,\lambda )\underset{i=0}{\overset{n_c}{}}f(i;\lambda )d\lambda =\hfill & \\ \underset{i=0}{\overset{n_c}{}}C_{N_{s+b}+i}^i\frac{m^{1+N_{s+b}}}{(m+1)^{1+N_{s+b}+i}},\hfill & \\ \widehat{\beta }=1_0^{\mathrm{}}G(N_b,m,\lambda )\underset{i=0}{\overset{n_c}{}}f(i;\lambda )d\lambda =\hfill & \\ 1\underset{i=0}{\overset{n_c}{}}C_{N_b+i}^i\frac{m^{1+N_b}}{(m+1)^{1+N_b+i}}.\hfill & \end{array}$$
(16)
As a result, we have a generalized system of equations for the case of different luminosity in planned data and Monte Carlo data to calculate the PMCD $`1\widehat{\kappa }=1{\displaystyle \frac{\widehat{\alpha }+\widehat{\beta }}{2}}`$. The set of values $`C_{N+i}^i{\displaystyle \frac{m^{1+N}}{(m+1)^{N+i+1}}},i=0,1,\mathrm{}`$ is a negative binomial (Pascal) distribution with real parameters $`N+1`$ and $`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{m+1}}`$, mean value $`{\displaystyle \frac{1+N}{m}}`$ and variance $`{\displaystyle \frac{(1+m)(1+N)}{m^2}}`$.

## V A possible way to take into account the systematics

We consider here forthcoming experiments to search for new physics. In this case we must take into account the systematic uncertainty which have theoretical origin without any statistical properties. For example, two loop corrections for most reactions at present are not known. It means that we can only estimate the scale of influence of background uncertainty on the observability of signal, i.e. we can point the admissible level of uncertainty in theoretical calculations for given experiment proposal.

Suppose uncertainty in the calculation of exact background cross section is determined by parameter $`\delta `$, i.e. the exact cross section lies in the interval $`(\sigma _b,\sigma _b(1+\delta ))`$ and the exact value of average number of background events lies in the interval $`(n_b,n_b(1+\delta ))`$. Let us suppose $`n_bn_s`$. In this instance the discovery potential is the most sensitive to the systematic uncertainties. As we know nothing about possible values of average number of background events, we consider the worst case b3 . Taking into account Eqs.(7) we have the formulae 333Eqs.(17) realize the worst case when the background cross section $`\sigma _b(1+\delta )`$ is the maximal one, but we think that both the signal and the background cross sections are minimal. Also, we suppose that $`n_b(1+\delta )<n_s+n_b`$.

$$\{\begin{array}{cc}\widehat{\alpha }=\underset{i=0}{\overset{n_c}{}}f(i;n_b+n_s)\hfill & \\ \widehat{\beta }=1\underset{i=0}{\overset{n_c}{}}f(i;n_b(1+\delta ))\hfill & \\ 1\widehat{\kappa }=1\frac{\widehat{\alpha }+\widehat{\beta }}{2},\hfill & \end{array}$$
(17)
where $`n_c`$ is

$$n_c=[\frac{n_sn_b\delta }{ln(n_s+n_b)ln(n_b(1+\delta ))}].$$
(18)
## VI Conclusions

In this paper we have considered the probability of making a correct decision in hypotheses testing to estimate the quality of planned experiments. This estimator allows to measure the distinguishability of models. We estimate the influence of statistical uncertainty in determination of mean numbers of signal and background events and propose a possible way to take into account effects of one-sided systematic errors.

###### Acknowledgements.

The authors are grateful to V.A. Matveev and V.F. Obraztsov for the interest and useful comments, S.S. Bityukov, Yu.P. Gouz, G. Kahrimanis, A. Nikitenko, V.V. Smirnova, V.A. Taperechkina for fruitful discussions and E.A. Medvedeva for help in preparing the paper. The authors wish to thank the referee of JHEP. This work has been supported by grant RFBR 03-02-16933.
Sergei I. Bityukov, Division of experimental physics, Institute for high energy physics, 142281 Protvino, Russia
E-mail: Serguei.Bitioukov@cern.ch, bityukov@mx.ihep.su

Nikolai V. Krasnikov, Department of high energy physics, Institute for nuclear research RAS, Prospect 60-letiya Octyabrya 7a, 117312 Moscow, Russia
E-mail: Nikolai.Krasnikov@cern.ch


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# CHAOTIC INFLATIONARY UNIVERSE ON BRANE

## Abstract

The chaotic inflationary model of the early universe, proposed by Linde is explored in the brane world considering matter described by a minimally coupled self interacting scalar field. We obtain cosmological solutions which admit evolution of a universe either from a singularity or without a singularity. It is found that a very weakly coupled self-interacting scalar field is necessary for a quartic type potential in the brane world model compared to that necessary in general relativity. In the brane world sufficient inflation may be obtained even with an initial scalar field having value less than the Planck scale. It is found that if the universe is kinetic energy dominated to begin with, it transits to an inflationary stage subsequently.

PACS number(s) : 04.50.+h, 98.80.Cq

I. INTRODUCTION

It is now generally believed that the Einstein’s general theory of relativity (GTR) needs to be modified at a very high energy scale. Such a high energy perhaps was available in the universe shortly after the big bang. It is likely that the GTR may reduce to a limiting case of a more general theory. To accommodate such a theory one requires a framework where gravity may be quantized. But a consistent quantum theory of gravity is yet to emerge. The developmental works  in superstring and M-theory in the last few years have been recognised as important to build a consistent theory of quantum gravity. However, those theories need space-time dimensions more than the usual four dimensions for its consistent formulation. There have been an important paradigm shift in recent years to explore a higher dimensional universe from that of the previous approaches initiated by Kaluza and Klein  and others . In modern higher dimensional scenario, the fields of the standard model are considered to be confined to 3 + 1 dimensional hyper-surface (referred to as 3 brane) embedded in higher dimensional spacetime but the gravitational field may propagate through the bulk dimensions perpendicular to the brane which is referred to as the braneworld. According to Randall and Sundrum  although the extra dimensions is not compact, four dimensional Newtonian gravity is recovered in five dimensional anti-de Sitter spacetime ($`AdS_5`$) in the low energy limit. It is also found that the heirarchy problem in particle physics gets resolved in brane world. In the last couple of years a number of literature appeared in the braneworld cosmology which addressed isotropic  as well as anisotropic  brane cosmologies, since gravity in braneworld may differ considerably from the conventional four dimensional gravity. It is now generally accepted that inflation is an essential ingredient in modern cosmology which one obtains using the theories of particle physics. During the inflationary epoch, the scale factor of the universe grew exponentially (or quasiexponentially) allowing a small causally coherent region to become big enough to be identified with the present observable universe. Consequently the inflationary universe scenario provides a satisfactory solution to some of the conceptual issues in cosmology not understood in the standard Big-Bang theory. Maartens et al.  studied chaotic inflation on the brane using a massive scalar field. It was found that the Friedmann constraint equation which led to a faster Hubble expansion at high energies and a more strongly damped evolving scalar field, help very much to attain easily the condition for slow-roll inflation for a given potential. It was also found that the inflationary scenario in brane cosmology has the desired scale invariant Harrison-Zeldovich spectrum for density perturbation in accordance with the COBE data. Chaotic inflation on the FRW brane  was obtained with an assumption that the potential energy dominates over that of the kinetic energy of the scalar field. In GTR, Linde  has shown that chaotic scenario can be realised even when scalar field $`\varphi `$ obeys $`\frac{1}{2}\dot{\varphi }^2>>V(\varphi )`$ and attains the required condition for inflation in course of its evolution in FRW universe. In a subsequent paper Paul et al.  shown that Linde’s chaotic scenario is more general and can be accommodated even in an anisotropic universe. Chaotic model of the early universe is based on a single scalar field which can be formulated either as a theory of a massless self-interacting scalar field with quartic self-coupling ($`b_o`$) or a non-interacting massless scalar field with mass $`m`$. For a realistic inflationary universe scenario, one fixes either the mass or quartic coupling, $`m10^5M_4`$ ($`M_4`$ represents the Planck mass) or $`b_o10^{12}`$ weakly coupled field. For a sufficient inflation one requires initial values of the inflaton field $`\varphi _i>fewM_4`$. However, it is troublesome to assume $`\varphi _i>fewM_4`$ and use only the quadratic or quartic potential terms, as in these cases one is implicitly assuming that all non-renormalizable terms are absent or severly suppressed . However, considering two or more scalar field in the theory may improve the situation as it releive us from the problem of extremely large initial field values. Linde , Kanti and Olive  shown that the fine tunning of the quartic coupling $`b_o10^{12}`$ could be relaxed in the framework of a four dimensional theory of multiple scalar fields. They argued that the source of a large number of nearly identical scalar fields could be the result of compactification of a large extra dimension. It was also shown  that the multiplicity of the scalar field may resolve the problem of large initial condition necessary for chaotic inflation. In this paper we consider self-interacting scalar field to obtain brane cosmological solutions and look for inflation in the early universe considering the initial conditions for inflation in one case and in another case we look for inflation relaxing the conditions for inflation.

The paper is organized as follows : The field equations on the brane are written down in sec. II. In sec. III we obtain cosmological solution and in sec IV. a brief discussion.

II. BRANE FIELD EQUATION

In the five dimensional (bulk) space-time the Einstein’s field equation is given by

$$G_{AB}^{(5)}=\stackrel{~}{\kappa }^2\left[g_{AB}^{(5)}\mathrm{\Lambda }_{(5)}+T_{AB}^{(5)}\right]$$
(1)
with $`T_{AB}^{(5)}=\delta (y)[\lambda g_{AB}+T_{AB}]`$. Here $`\kappa _{(5)}`$ represents the five dimensional gravitational coupling constant, $`g_{AB}^{(5)}`$, $`G_{AB}^{(5)}`$ and $`\mathrm{\Lambda }_{(5)}`$ are the metric, Einstein tensor and the cosmological constant of the bulk space-time respectively, $`T_{AB}`$ is the matter energy momentum tensor. We have $`\stackrel{~}{\kappa }^2=\frac{8\pi }{M_5^3}`$. A natural choice of coordinates is $`x^A=(x^\mu ,y)`$ where $`x^\mu =(t,x^i)`$ are space-time coordinates on the brane. The the upper case Latin letters ($`A,B,\mathrm{}=0,\mathrm{},4`$) represents coordinate indices in the bulk spacetime, the Greek letters ($`\mu ,\nu ,\mathrm{}=0,\mathrm{},3`$) for the coordinate indices in the four dimensional spacetime and the small case latin letters ($`i,j=1,2,3`$) for three space. The space-like hypersurface $`x^4=y=0`$ gives the brane world and $`g_{AB}`$ is its induced metric, $`\lambda `$ is the tension of the brane which is assumed to be positive in order to recover conventional general theory of gravity (GTR) on the brane. The bulk cosmological constant $`\mathrm{\Lambda }_{(5)}`$ is negative and represents the five dimensional cosmological constant.

The field equations induced on the brane are derived using geometric approach  leading to new terms which carry bulk effects on the brane. The modified dynamical equations on the brane is

$$G_{\mu \nu }=\mathrm{\Lambda }g_{\mu \nu }+\kappa ^2T_{\mu \nu }+\stackrel{~}{\kappa }^4S_{\mu \nu }E_{\mu \nu },$$
(2)
where the effective cosmological constant $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$ and the four dimensional constant $`\kappa `$ on the brane are given by

$$\mathrm{\Lambda }=\frac{\mathrm{\Lambda }_5}{2}\left[\left(\frac{\lambda }{\lambda _c}\right)^21\right]$$

$$\kappa ^2=\frac{1}{6}\lambda \stackrel{~}{\kappa }^4,$$
(3)
respectively, and $`\lambda _c`$ is the critical brane tension which is

$$\lambda _c=6\frac{\mathrm{\Lambda }_5}{\stackrel{~}{\kappa }^2}.$$
(4)
However one can make the effective four dimensional cosmological constant zero by a choice of the brane tension. The extra dimensional corrections to the Einstein equations on the brane are of two types and are given by :

$``$ $`S_{\mu \nu }`$ : quadratic in the matter variables which is

$$S_{\mu \nu }=\frac{1}{12}TT_{\mu \nu }\frac{1}{4}T_{\mu \alpha }T_\nu ^\alpha +\frac{1}{24}g_{\mu \nu }\left[3T_{\alpha \beta }T_{\alpha \beta }(T_\alpha ^\alpha )^2\right].$$
(5)
where $`T=T_\alpha ^\alpha `$, $`S_{\mu \nu }`$ is significant at high energies i.e., $`\rho >\lambda `$,

$``$ $`E_{\mu \nu }`$ : occurs due to the non-local effects from the free gravitational field in the bulk, which enters in the equation via the projection $`𝐄_{AB}^{(5)}=C_{ACBD}^{(5)}n^Cn^D`$ where $`n^A`$ is normal to the surface ($`n^An_A=1`$). The term is symmetric and traceless and without components orthogonal to the brane, so $`𝐄_{AB}n^B=0`$ and $`𝐄_{AB}E_{\mu \nu }g_A^\mu g_B^\nu `$ as $`y0`$

The Robertson-Walker metric in the brane world is

$$ds^2=dt^2+a^2(t)\left[dr^2+\mathrm{\Sigma }_k^2(r)(d\theta ^2+sin^2\theta \varphi ^2)\right]$$
(6)
where $`\mathrm{\Sigma }_k^2(r)=sinr(sinhr)`$ for $`k=1(1)`$ and $`\mathrm{\Sigma }_k=r`$ for $`k=0`$ and $`a(t)`$ is the scale factor. In this paper we consider brane world described by a flat Robertson-Walker metric. We also set cosmological constant to be zero. The matter in it is assumed to be equivalent to that of a perfect fluid and therefore the energy momentum tensor is

$$T_{\mu \nu }=(\rho +p)u_\mu u_\nu +pg_{\mu \nu }$$
(7)
where $`u^\mu u_\mu =1`$, $`u^\mu `$ is the unit fluid velocity of matter and $`\rho `$ is the energy density and $`p`$ is the pressure of the matter fluid.

Using the metric (6) and the energy momentum tensor (7), the field equation (2) for a flat brane metric become

$$H^2=\frac{\kappa ^2}{3}\rho \left(1+\frac{\rho }{2\lambda }\right)+\frac{E}{a^4}$$
(8)
where $`\kappa ^2=8\pi G=8\pi /M_4^2`$ and $`E`$ is the black radiation term. The second term in the above equation is the quadratic correction in energy density $`\rho `$. In the high energy limit, $`\lambda \mathrm{}`$ and $`E=0`$ i.e., neglecting dark energy one recovers the standard four dimensional general relativistic results. In the very early universe the quadratic term in energy density dominates over the other terms giving rise to a new kind of variation of the Hubble parameter with the energy density on the brane. The conservation equation is

$$\frac{d\rho }{dt}+3H(\rho +p)=0.$$
(9)
We now consider scalar field minimally coupled to gravity to describe the matter content in the universe. For a homogeneous scalar field $`\varphi =\varphi (t)`$ the energy density and pressure are given by

$$\rho =\frac{1}{2}\dot{\varphi }^2+V(\varphi ),$$

$$p=\frac{1}{2}\dot{\varphi }^2V(\varphi ).$$
(10)
In the four dimensional general theory of relativity the condition for inflation is $`\frac{1}{2}\dot{\varphi }^2<<V(\varphi )`$ i.e., $`p<\frac{1}{3}\rho `$. Maartens et al.  obtained chaotic inflation scenario on the brane with this condition using a massive scalar field. It is known  that chaotic scenario can be realized even if $`\frac{1}{2}\dot{\varphi }^2>>V(\varphi )`$ in GTR. In this paper we consider two possibilities : (i) $`\frac{1}{2}\dot{\varphi }^2>>V(\varphi )`$ and (ii) $`\frac{1}{2}\dot{\varphi }^2<<V(\varphi )`$. In the first case we also look for subsequent inflation.

III. COSMOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS

CASE I : Let us consider first the case $`\frac{1}{2}\dot{\varphi }^2>>V(\varphi )`$, which is reasonable at early universe. In this case one obtains $`\rho =p=\frac{1}{2}\dot{\varphi }^2`$ which corresponds to stiff matter. Equation (9) therefore can be written as

$$\ddot{\varphi }+3H\dot{\varphi }=0.$$
(11)
On integrating we get

$$\dot{\varphi }=\pm \frac{C}{a^3}$$
(12)
where $`C`$ is an integration constant. Using the above relation we write

$$\left(\frac{\dot{a}}{a}\right)^2=\frac{\alpha ^2}{a^6}\left(1+\frac{\beta ^2}{a^6}\right)$$
(13)
where we use the symbols for simplification $`\alpha =\sqrt{\frac{4\pi C^2}{3M_4^2}}`$ and $`\beta ^2=\frac{C^2}{4\lambda }`$. Equation (13) can be easily integrated to obtain

$$a(t)=\left[\left(3\alpha t+A\right)^2\beta ^2\right]^{1/6}$$
(14)
where $`A`$ is an integration constant. Two models are possible depending upon the boundary conditions : (i) universe from a singularity when $`A=\beta `$ and (ii) universe without singularity when $`A=\beta ^2+a_o^6`$. We discuss below two models of the universe.

Model I : Universe from singularity

In this case we set $`A=\beta `$. The evolution of the the scale factor of the universe is given by

$$a(t)=\left(9\alpha ^2t^2+6\alpha \beta t\right)^{1/6}.$$
(15)
In the high energy limit, $`\beta =\frac{C^2}{4\lambda }\mathrm{}`$ i.e., the second term inside the bracket is comparatively larger one, therefore the scale factor evolves as

$$a(t)=\left(6\alpha \beta \right)^{1/6}t^{1/6},$$
(16)
and consequently the scalar field evolves as

$$\varphi (t)=\varphi _o\frac{2C}{\sqrt{6\alpha \beta }}t^{1/2}.$$
(17)
However in the low energy limit $`\beta =\frac{C^2}{4\lambda }0`$, one gets the scale factor which evolves as

$$a(t)=\left(3\alpha \right)^{1/3}t^{1/3},$$
(18)
and the corresponding scalar field evolution is given by

$$\varphi (t)=\varphi _o\frac{2C}{\sqrt{6\alpha }}\mathrm{ln}t.$$
(19)
The solutions obtained above for two different energy limits have different rates of expansion at the early epoch. The physical implications of this behaviour may be realised from the point of view of singularity, in the braneworld it approaches more slowly compared to that in GTR which is shown below

$$\frac{1}{a}\left(t\frac{da}{dt}\right)|_{Brane}=\frac{1}{6}<\frac{1}{a}\left(t\frac{da}{dt}\right)|_{GTR}=\frac{1}{3}.$$

However, one finds that the pre-inflationary stage continues for time $`t<<t_i=\left(\frac{3\alpha }{16\lambda b_o}\right)^{1/3}`$ in brane with a self interacting scalar field described by a potential $`V(\varphi )=\frac{1}{4}b_o\varphi ^4`$, where $`b_o`$ represents the coupling constant. It is evident that the kinetic energy decreases more rapidly than the potential energy and at $`t=t_i`$ the potential energy becomes important which leads to inflation. The inflationary scenario may be realized with a polynomial potential $`V(\varphi )\varphi ^n`$, with $`n>1`$.

Model II : Universe without singularity

Here we consider power law behavior of the scale factor given by (14), with $`a(t=0)=a_o=(A^2\beta ^2)^{1/6}`$ with $`A\beta `$. One gets a singularity free universe with a scalar field which evolves as $`\varphi =\varphi _o\pm \sqrt{\frac{2C^2}{3\alpha \beta }}t`$. However in the low energy limit, the scalar field evolves more slowly $`\varphi =\varphi _o\pm \frac{C}{3\alpha }ln(3\alpha t+A)`$.

The pre-inflationary stage in the above two models of the brane-world ends very soon as the kinetic energy density decreases faster than the potential energy and the universe transits to an inflationary stage which is discussed in the next section.

CASE II : The case $`\frac{1}{2}\dot{\varphi }^2<<V(\varphi )`$ is studied by Maartens et al.  for a massive scalar field. In this paper we consider a self interacting scalar field with a potential $`V(\varphi )=\frac{1}{4}b_o\varphi ^4`$, where $`b_o`$ is the coupling strength of the scalar field. The field equation can be written as

$$\left(\frac{\dot{a}}{a}\right)^2=\frac{2\pi b_o}{3M_4^2}\varphi ^4\left(1+\frac{b_o}{8\lambda }\varphi ^4\right)$$
(20)
and the scalar field equation becomes

$$3H\dot{\varphi }=b_o\varphi ^3.$$
(21)
Equations (20) and (21) are used to determine the scale factor of the universe which is given below

$$a(t)=a_oe^{\left[\frac{\pi }{M_4^2}\left(\varphi _o^2\varphi ^2\right)+\frac{\pi b_o}{24\lambda M_4^2}\left(\varphi _o^6\varphi ^6\right)\right]}.$$
(22)
In the low energy limit $`\frac{b_o}{\lambda }0`$, one recovers the solution obtained by Linde . However, in the high energy limit $`\frac{b_o}{\lambda }\mathrm{}`$, we get brane cosmological solution where the scale factor of the universe grows as

$$a(t)=a_oe^{\frac{\pi b_o}{24\lambda M_4^2}\left(\varphi _o^6\varphi ^6\right)}.$$
(23)
The scalar field evolves as

$$\varphi =\left[\varphi _o^2\sqrt{\frac{16\lambda M_4^2}{3\pi }}t\right]^{1/2}.$$
(24)
It is evident from the scale factor obtained in (23) that a huge inflation results in the brane as $`\frac{b_o}{\lambda }`$ is very large. It is important to determine the initial value of the scalar field to get sufficient inflation in order to explain the homogeneity and isotropy of the observed universe. At the end of inflation $`\varphi _f=\varphi _{end}`$, one obtains the number of e-folds of inflationary expansion, $`N_{COBE}=_{t_i}^{t_f}H𝑑t65`$. To get sufficient inflation in this case we obtain $`\varphi _{COBE}\left(\frac{1170}{\pi ^2b_o}\right)^{1/6}M_5`$. The amplitude of scalar perturbation during slow-roll inflation may be evaluated which is given by

$$A_S^2\left(\frac{512\pi }{75M_4^6}\right)\frac{V^3}{V^2}\left[\frac{2\lambda +V}{2\lambda }\right]^3|_{k=aH}\frac{\pi ^4b_o^4}{2025}\frac{\varphi ^{18}}{M_5^{18}}.$$
(25)
Using the result of COBE normalization  $`A_S2\times 10^5`$, we estimate the coupling constant of the scalar field which is $`b_o5.06\times 10^{16}`$. Thus $`\varphi _{COBE}`$ fixes the self interacting coupling constant of the inflaton field. It may be pointed out here that this is a tighter constraint compared to the usual 4D one. Thus in the brane world fine tunning problem is not very much improved compared to that in 4D FRW cosmology. The spectral index of the scalar spectrum $`n_s1=\frac{d\mathrm{ln}A_S^2}{d\mathrm{ln}k}|_{k=aH}`$, is given by

$$n_s1=\frac{576}{k}\left(\frac{\lambda }{b_o}\right)\varphi _{COBE}^{12}.$$
(26)
In the high energy limit $`\frac{b_o}{\lambda }\mathrm{}`$, which we are discussing here leads to spectral index very close to unity ( $`n_s1`$ ). In GTR, Linde  suggested that the observed part of the universe originates from a fluctuation region with $`\varphi (t=M_4^1)>3M_4`$ where $`M_41.2\times 10^{19}GeV`$. The lower bound of $`\varphi `$ ensures that there is sufficient inflation, which however becomes $`\varphi >7.85\times 10^2M_5`$ in the brane world scenario. As $`M_5<10^{17}`$ GeV, chaotic inflationary universe may be obtained from an initial distribution of scalar field having values even below the Planck mass scale.

IV. Discussions :

We studied chaotic inflationary universe model in brane world considering a minimally coupled self-interacting homogeneous scalar field. It is found that the chaotic inflation may be realized when the potential energy of the inflaton field dominates the kinetic energy to begin with. It is also found that when kinetic energy dominates initially, a pre-inflationary phase results, which subsequently transits to inflationary universe as the kinetic energy decreases much faster than the potential energy. The universe evolves out of a chaotic distribution of initial data which may not necessarily have values greater than Planck mass scale. In the above a sufficient inflation is obtained with a scalar field $`\varphi _i>7.85\times 10^2M_5`$ which is less than that required in the 4D case. A very weakly coupled ($`b_o10^{16}`$) scalar field is required on the brane compared to that ($`b_o10^{12}`$) required in GTR which, however, worsen the fine tunning problem. We also note that in the case of a universe created with a singularity, the rate of approach of singularity on the brane is much faster than that one gets in GTR.

Acknowledgement : I would like to thank the Inter-University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics (IUCAA) Pune for providing a facility where this work was carried out. I would also like to thank Prof. S. Mukherjee for providing facilities to work at IUCAA Reference Centre at North Bengal University.


text:
# Volume dependence of light hadron masses in full lattice QCD

## 1 INTRODUCTION

Lattice QCD has always been plagued by the fact that towards realistic quark masses the simulation costs increase drastically due to the large correlation lengths of the light states and the large lattice volumes that one employs in order to avoid finite-size (FS) effects. This difficulty has, in fact, prevented us until this day from carrying out simulations with truly physical parameters. Instead one resorts to computations with several un-physically large quark masses in FS-effect-free volumes, followed by an extrapolation to the physical quark mass. However, the chiral extrapolation introduces uncertainties that can be reduced only by increasing the overlap of lattice simulations with ChPT. It is thus inevitable to look out for feasible ways to obtain lattice results at light quark masses. Current approaches like overlap, domain-wall or improved staggered fermions are still very costly, especially if one goes beyond the quenched approximation. Faced with limited computer resources we therefore investigate the feasibility of an approach that restricts itself to the use of standard Wilson fermions.

The aim of the *GRAL* project is to carry out a systematic study of FS effects in the light hadron spectrum in the parameter regime accessible to us. With simulations on series of small to medium-sized lattice volumes (at fixed coupling and quark mass, respectively) we also want to address the issue of whether one can use formulae obtained from this investigation to extrapolate hadronic observables to the infinite volume.

## 2 VOLUME DEPENDENCE OF THE LIGHT HADRON MASSES

In 1983 M. Lüscher published a universal field theoretic formula for the shift in the mass of a stable particle enclosed in a finite box . The formula states for asymptotically large volumes that the FS mass-shift vanishes exponentially with increasing box size at a rate that depends on the particle considered and on the spectrum of light particles in the theory. If, in QCD, we consider a stable hadron in a box of size $`L^3`$ with periodic boundary conditions and sufficiently large (Euclidian) time-extent $`T`$, its mass $`M_H(L)`$ becomes a universal function of $`M_\pi L`$ (where, at fixed $`\beta `$, $`M_\pi =lim_L\mathrm{}M_\pi (L)`$) in the finite-volume continuum limit. Since FS effects probe the system at large distances and are thus insensitive to the form and magnitude of the UV cutoff, this function is expected to hold also for finite lattice spacings. With the (constant) LO chiral expression for the $`\pi `$-$`\pi `$ forward scattering amplitude the relative mass-shift for the pion is given by

$`{\displaystyle \frac{M_\pi (L)M_\pi }{M_\pi }}`$ $`=`$ $`{\displaystyle \frac{3}{8\pi ^2}}{\displaystyle \frac{M_\pi ^2}{F_\pi ^2}}{\displaystyle \frac{K_1(M_\pi L)}{M_\pi L}}`$ (1)
$``$ $`{\displaystyle \frac{3}{4(2\pi )^{3/2}}}{\displaystyle \frac{M_\pi ^2}{F_\pi ^2}}{\displaystyle \frac{e^{M_\pi L}}{(M_\pi L)^{3/2}}}`$ (2)
If we assume, for simplicity, the pion-nucleon forward scattering amplitude to be constant, too, then the formula for the nucleon involves a term that is—up to low-energy constants—proportional to the one for the pion. In addition it contains a term proportional to

$$\mathrm{exp}\left(M_\pi L\sqrt{1M_\pi ^2/(4M_N^2)}\right)/(M_\pi L).$$
(3)
On the other hand, in 1992 Fukugita *et al.* found a power-like $`L`$-dependence of the form

$$M_H(L)=M_H+c/L^3$$
(4)
in their data for the pion, rho and nucleon masses . The usual explanation for the apparent discrepancy is that Lüscher’s formula deals with asymptotically large lattice volumes where FS effects arise from a squeezing of the virtual pion cloud surrounding the hadron in a box with periodic boundary conditions. In contrast, Fukugita *et al.* ascribe the power-like behaviour of their data to a squeezing of the hadron itself (as it would occur for small lattice volumes). In this picture one expects a power-like dependence for sub-asymptotic lattice volumes that gradually changes into an exponential fall-off of the hadron masses towards larger box sizes.

## 3 GRAL STATUS

Table 1 summarises some details of our simulations. We use the standard unimproved Wilson action with two degenerate flavours of dynamical fermions. Our HMC codes are running on the APEmille at DESY/Zeuthen and on the cluster installation ALiCE at Wuppertal University. In addition to the already available SESAM ($`L=16`$) and T$`\chi `$L ($`L=24`$) ensembles we are generating configurations on smaller volumes with $`L`$ varying between 10 and 16. The figures referring to these runs are, where available, preliminary. With our simulations at $`\beta =5.32`$, $`\kappa =0.1665`$ we aim at a quark mass corresponding to $`M_\pi /M_\rho 0.5`$, i.e. below the smallest $`M_\pi /M_\rho `$ of 0.575(16) previously achieved by the SESAM/T$`\chi `$L project. In this article we focus on the ensembles at $`\beta =5.6`$, $`\kappa =0.1575`$ where we assume the largest, $`24^3\times 40`$-lattice to be free of FS effects.

## 4 RESULTS

The (preliminary) masses we obtain for the pion, rho and nucleon are displayed in Fig. 1.

The flat dashed curve represents Lüscher’s formula for the pion mass, Eq. (1), with $`M_\pi `$ and $`F_\pi `$ as obtained from the $`24^3`$-lattice. From this curve it is obvious that the data points at $`L=10,12,14`$ are outside the chiral regime. This can also be seen from $`F_\pi L`$, which takes the values 0.91(3), 1.10(3), 1.28(4), 1.46(4) and 2.19(6) for $`L=10,12,14,16,24`$, respectively. Since ChPT is a low-energy (large distance) expansion it is only valid for $`F_\pi L1`$ and $`M_\pi /(4\pi F_\pi )1`$; $`M_\pi /(4\pi F_\pi )`$ is 0.240(7) for $`L=24`$. Nevertheless we observe that the pion data can be well fitted from $`L=12`$ with the “semi-empirical” formula

$$M_\pi (L)=m_\pi +a_1\frac{3}{4(2\pi )^{3/2}}\frac{m_\pi ^{3/2}}{F_\pi ^2}\frac{e^{a_2m_\pi L}}{L^{3/2}}$$
(5)
where $`m_\pi `$, $`a_1`$ and $`a_2`$ are free fit-parameters. $`a_1`$ and $`a_2`$ are chosen such that their deviation from 1 indicates “how far away” we are from the original formula (1). For the rho (which cannot decay on the employed lattices) and the nucleon we adopt, for various practical reasons, the generic ansatz

$$M_{\rho ,N}(L)=m_{\rho ,N}+a_1\frac{e^{a_2m_\pi L}}{L^{3/2}},$$
(6)
i.e. we effectively drop the term proportional to (3). Here, $`m_\pi `$ is fixed to the value obtained from the pion fit. All the fits are displayed in Fig. 1, where the lines are solid within the fit range and dotted outside. For comparison the dash-dotted curves show $`1/L^3`$-fits of the form (4). The $`\chi ^2/\mathrm{dof}`$-values for the exponential fits are 0.20, 0.03 and 1.33 for pion, rho and nucleon, respectively. In contrast, for the $`1/V`$-fits $`\chi ^2/\mathrm{dof}`$ is 19, 8 and 4. The asymptotic mass $`m_\pi `$ ($`m_\rho `$, $`m_N`$) obtained from the fit deviates less than 1% from $`M_\pi `$ ($`M_\rho `$, $`M_N`$) at $`L=24`$ and lies thus well within the errors of $`M_\pi `$ ($`M_\rho `$, $`M_N`$).

## 5 CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK

We clearly see an exponential behaviour in our data for the light hadrons, as opposed to the $`1/L^3`$-dependence reported earlier by Fukugita *et al.*. However, the $`1/L^3`$-fits are acceptable when we shift the fit-range from $`(\mathrm{12..24})`$ towards smaller $`L`$, say $`(\mathrm{10..16})`$. Moreover, we have to allow for extra free parameters in Lüscher’s formula in order to achieve a good description of our data. These parameters are $`O(1000)`$ in the case of $`a_1`$ and about 2 in the case of $`a_2`$ (except for the nucleon where $`a_1=O(100)`$ and $`a_21`$) and vary with the left fit boundary. This, together with the $`F_\pi L`$-values mentioned above, suggests that we are in an intermediate, sub-asymptotic regime were we merely see the onset of the chiral behaviour predicted by Lüscher’s formula.

In a next step we will analyse our data at $`\beta =5.6`$, $`\kappa =0.158`$ and $`\beta =5.32`$, $`\kappa =0.1665`$ in order to check whether the observed volume-dependence is reproduced there. We will then address the question if and to what precision an extrapolation to the infinite volume is possible.

## ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The gauge configurations were produced on the cluster computer ALiCE at the University of Wuppertal and on the Quadrics/APE installation at DESY/NIC Zeuthen. Further numerical calculations were carried out on the Cray T3E at FZ/NIC Jülich. We thank the operating staffs in all these places for their support. BO thanks S. Dürr for useful discussions.