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# Discovery of Newly Formed Broad Absorption Lines in a Radio-Loud Quasar

## 1 Introduction

Approximately 10% of all quasars are “radio loud”, in the sense that they are more luminous at radio than at optical wavelengths. Also for some unknown reason, about 10% of radio-quiet quasars show broad absorption lines (BAL) in their spectra. Only recently have a handful of radio-loud BAL quasars been discovered (Becker et al. 1997; Brotherton et al. 1998), thus changing our view that BALs only appear in radio-quiet quasars. These quasars will serve as a link between radio-loud and radio-quiet quasars, and will aid in understanding the structure and kinematics of powerful outflows in these quasars. This may eventually lead to a breakthrough in understanding the origin of the radio loudness and the radio-loud/radio-quiet dichotomy.

## 2 Observations

In a spectroscopic survey of a sample of 62 radio-loud quasars, we searched for emission line variations on a time scale of $``$10 years (Ma & Wills 1998; Ma 2000; Ma & Wills 2001). A BAL system was serendipitously discovered in the radio-loud quasar TEX 1726$`+`$344, which showed only narrow absorption lines just 12 years ago. This quasar has a radio flux of 23.0 mJy or a luminosity of $`10^{26.9}`$ W Hz-1 at 6 cm (Richards et al. 2001), a redshift of 2.43, and a V magnitude of 18.5 (Barthel, Tytler & Thomson 1990). The K-corrected ratio of radio-to-optical power $`R^{}`$ (Sramek & Weedman 1980; Stocke et al. 1992; Brotherton et al. 1998), commonly used as a measure of radio loudness, is derived to be $`10^{2.36}`$ and is well above the criterion $`R^{}>10`$ for radio-loud quasars.

We observed TEX 1726$`+`$344 on 2000 June 4, using the 2.7-m telescope at McDonald Observatory. A 2-arcsecond slit was used for a total exposure of 5000 seconds. The resolution is about 0.7 nm. The spectrum was corrected with a short exposure using an 8-arcsecond slit. The corrected spectrum is denoted in the upper panel of Fig. 1 by a solid line. The historical spectrum taken by Barthel et al. (1990) in 1988, after scaled to the continuum level of the 2000 spectrum, is indicated by a dotted line. This historical spectrum was taken using the 5-m Hale telescope with a 1-arcsecond slit in a 3600-second exposure, and has a resolution of about 0.4 nm. The direct division spectrum and the fitting curve are shown in the lower panel.

The continuum and the emission lines match well, as in most of the 62 quasars observed in a time interval of about 10 years. However, historical spectra of TEX 1726$`+`$344 in 1988 (Barthel et al. 1990) and also in 1990 (Lanzetta et al. 1991, not shown here) show only narrow absorption lines. The BALs blueward the SiIV $`\lambda `$139.7 and CIV $`\lambda `$154.9 emission lines in the new spectrum are dramatic, especially in the direct division spectrum.

The SiIV and the CIV absorption lines both have a redshift of 2.36, as compared to a redshift of 2.43 in the emission lines. The difference in the peaks between the absorption and the emission lines suggests that the absorbing gas has an outflowing velocity of 6000 km/s. Both absorption features are significant with restframe equivalent widths of 0.3 nm and 0.2 nm, respectively. The full width at half maximum (FWHM) of these BALs are approximately 1 nm in the restframe, corresponding to a velocity dispersion over 2000 km/s.

## 3 Modeling

The outflowing velocity and velocity dispersion coincide with those of a stellar remnant tidally disrupted by a central massive black hole. It has been suggested that tidal disruptions may be responsible for quasar broad emission lines (Shields 1989; Roos 1992). A main sequence star, after being tidally disrupted by a $`10^8M_{}`$ black hole in the center of a quasar, will be ejected at a high velocity. The head of the tidal debris will reach a distance of about $`10^{17}`$ cm in about 3 years, and the residual velocity will be 6000 km/s at this distance (Roos 1992). The thickness of the tidal debris is stretched at a velocity of $``$1000 km/s, and the density drops to $`10^9`$ cm-3 at this point. The column density of the dense tidal stream is on the order of $`10^{24}`$ cm-2 and is too dense to be responsible for the apparently un-saturated broad absorption lines in TEX 1726$`+`$344. However, as suggested by Ma (2000), the dense tidal stream is accompanied by faster-moving winds blown off of it due to radiation pressure. Both the density and the column density of the wind are two orders of magnitude smaller than those of the dense tidal stream.

A model of this piece of gas cloud with a density of $`10^7`$ cm-3 and a column density of $`10^{22}`$ cm-2, at a distance of $`10^{17}`$ cm to a central continuum source with a luminosity of $`10^{39}`$ W, can thus be studied. We have run a photoionization calculation using CLOUDY (Ferland 1996), and found that the ratio of CIV to total carbon is $`6.3\times 10^5`$. Assuming a solar abundance with C:H$`=3.55\times 10^4`$ (Grevesse & Anders 1989), we find that the column density of CIV of this piece of gas cloud is $`2.2\times 10^{14}`$ cm-2. This value coincides well with that derived from the equivalent width of the CIV broad absorption line.

Column densities for the CIV and SiIV absorbing ions can be estimated by (Wang et al. 1999)

$$N=\frac{W_\lambda }{\lambda }\frac{m_ec^2}{\pi e^2}\frac{1}{g\lambda f},$$
(1)
where $`W_\lambda `$ and $`\lambda `$ are the equivalent width and the wavelength, and $`g`$ and $`f`$ are the effective statistical weight and oscillator strength of the corresponding absorption lines, respectively. Following Wang et al. (1999) and taking the $`g`$ and $`f`$ values from Korista et al. (1991), we get the column density of CIV and SiIV to be $`2.4\times 10^{14}`$ and $`7.3\times 10^{13}`$ cm-2, respectively.

## 4 Discussions

We note that absorption line variations with large magnitudes have been observed in the low-redshift radio-quiet quasar PG 1126$``$041 (Wang et al. 1999). Numerous studies on the absorption line variability of Seyfert galaxies also exist in the literature (Malizia et al. 1997; Risaliti, Elvis & Nicastro 2002; Akylas et al. 2002), and have been modeled with a single cloud moving through the line of sight (Akylas et al. 2002). Hamann, Barlow & Junkkarinen (1997) have identified variable intrinsic absorption lines (FWHM$``$400 km/s) in a radio-quiet quasar Q2343$`+`$125. BAL variability at a moderate level ($`<`$40%) has been found in several radio-quiet quasars (Barlow 1993). In contrast to these previous studies, TEX 1726$`+`$344, a high luminosity radio-loud quasar developing BALs in a time interval of 12 years, represents a new phenomenon.

The popular disk-wind model (Murray et al. 1995) for both broad emission and absorption lines has been challenged by Ma & Wills (2001) because some radio-loud quasars were discovered to have dramatic CIV emission line variability, speculated to be due to the illumination of the jet pointing to the polar region of the quasar. The tidally disrupted stars model now seems to be the best candidate. The broad absorption lines in TEX 1726$`+`$344 will disappear in just a few years, if they were indeed caused by a tidal disruption event.

###### Acknowledgements.

The author wishes to thank Bev Wills for advice; Peter Barthel for making his data available in digital form; Gary Ferland for making his code CLOUDY available; and Angela Sinclair and Ariane Beck for help with the manuscript. This work makes uses of the NASA/IPAC Extragalactic Database (NED).


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# Bias in Absolute Magnitude Determination from Parallaxes

## 1 Introduction

The general methods for dealing with bias in the analysis of astronomical (or other) data were set out by Eddington (1913, 1940, see also Dyson 1926). Athough these are quite straightforward, the current literature shows that there is some uncertainty and misunderstanding in these matters. the present paper attempts to clarify the situation in the case of the derivation of absolute magnitudes from parallaxes.

Since the Hipparcos catalogue (Perryman et al. 1997) became available there has been increased use of parallaxes for absolute magnitude determination and future missions such as GAIA will lead to further work in this area. It is therefore important that there should be agreement on the question of bias correction.

If objects are selected for analysis on the basis of their observed parallaxes ($`\pi `$) or weighted (including selection or rejection) by the ratio of $`\pi `$ to its standard error, $`\sigma _\pi `$, then the result is subject to bias (Lutz & Kelker 1973). On the other hand, provided there is no selection or weighting according to $`\pi `$ or $`\pi /\sigma _\pi `$ and if the relative absolute magnitudes of the objects in a group are known then the method of reduced parallaxes can be used to convert relative values to absolute. In the next section the biases that can occur in this method are set out. Following this, the question of the determination of the absolute magnitudes of individual objects from their parallaxes will be considered.

## 2 The method of reduced parallaxes

There have been a number of discussions of bias applicable to the method of reduced parallaxes but none dealing entirely satisfactorily with the situation likely to arise in practice. For instance Turon & Crézé (1977) consider only the case when all the objects have identical absolute magnitudes (i.e. there is no dispersion in absolute magnitude) and the discusion of Ljunggren & Oja is not completely relevant to the present purpose and seems to confuse the intrinsic dispersion in absolute magnitude with the uncertainty in the mean absolute magnitude derived from parallaxes. It should be noted that they, and the analysis of Malmquist (1920) to which they refer, consider only the case when all the objects of the relevant class down to a certain apparent magnitude are measured for parallax in the area of sky considered.

In the case of recent discussions of the Hipparcos parallaxes of Cepheids (e.g. Feast & Catchpole 1997 (=FC), Oudmaijer et al. 1998, Groenewegen & Oudmaijer 2000) various views on bias corrections have been put forward, none entirely satisfactory. In that particular case it is now generally agreed that any correction is negligibly small (FC, Groenwegen & Oudmaijer 2000, Lanoix et al. 1999) and this is confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations (Pont 1999). However occasions may well arise when these corrections are significant.

In the method of reduced parallaxes it is assumed that the objects in the group under discussion have not been selected by their measured parallaxes $`(\pi )`$ or the ratio, $`\pi /\sigma _\pi `$. Consider first the case of objects with a mean absolute magnitude per unit volume, $`M_o`$, and an intrinsic dispersion $`\sigma _{M_o}`$. The method of reduced parallaxes may be written:

$$\overline{10^{0.2M}}=0.01\pi 10^{0.2m_o}.p/p$$
(1)
where the parallax is measured in milliarcsec, $`m_o`$ is the absorption free apparent magnitude and $`p`$ is the weight given by;

$$(0.01\sigma _T.10^{0.2m_o})^2=1/p$$
(2)
and where $`\sigma _T`$ is given by;

$$\sigma _T^2=\sigma _\pi ^2+b^2\pi _{M_o}^2(\sigma _{m_o}^2+\sigma _{M_o}^2).$$
(3)
Here,
$`b=0.2log_e10=0.4605,`$
$`\pi _{M_o}`$ is the photometric parallax of an object computed from $`(m_oM_o)`$.
$`\sigma _{m_o}`$ is the standard error of the reddening corrected apparent magnitude.
Equation 3 is from Koen & Laney (1998).
Equation 1 gives an unbiased estimate of $`10^{0.2M_o}`$ only if $`\sigma _{M_o}`$ is zero.

Put $`x=(m_oM_o)`$. This will differ from the true distance modulus by $`ϵ`$ (say), due to observational errors in $`m_o`$ and intrinsic dispersion in $`M_o`$. It is then evident that equation 1 yields an estimate of;

$$\overline{10^{0.2M}}=\overline{10^{0.2(M_o+ϵ)}}=\overline{e^{bM_o}}.\overline{e^{bϵ}}.$$
(4)
Consider objects all of the same $`m_o`$ (and $`x`$). From Malmquist (1920) or more compactly, from Feast (1972) where some of the present nomenclature and sign convention is used, we find;

$$\overline{e^{bϵ}}=e^{0.5b^2\sigma _t^2}v(xb\sigma _t^2)/v(x)$$
(5)
where;

$$\sigma _t^2=\sigma _{m_o}^2+\sigma _{M_o}^2$$
(6)
and $`v(x)`$ is the frequency distribution of $`x`$ which would have been found if a complete survey had been made. Note that this is the case whether or not the objects under consideration actually form a complete survey.

Evidently at any $`m_o`$ an unbiased estimate of $`\overline{10^{0.2M_o}}`$ is obtained by multiplying the r.h.s. of equation 1 by the reciprocal of the r.h.s. of equation 5. Summed over all $`m_o`$, as in a practical case, the final result will depend $`v(x)`$ which in general will depend on $`x`$. Furthermore if one were analysing parallaxes over a significant galactic volume (as may well be possible with GAIA data), $`v(x)`$ might not be the same in all heliocentric directions. In such cases the problem would benefit from Monte Carlo simulations (Pont 1999, Sandage & Saha 2002). However if the underlying density distribution is constant then the r.h.s of equation 5 becomes $`10^{2.5b^2\sigma _t^2}`$ (see for instance Feast (1972) equation 9). Thus provided $`\sigma _t`$ is constant for the objects studied, this is simply a constant bias factor.

The relation between natural and logarithmic quantities shows that if $`\sigma _1`$ is the standard error of the mean value of $`M_o`$ derived as above, then;

$$M_o=5log(\overline{10^{0.2M_o}})0.23\sigma _1^2.$$
(7)
Thus for the case of a constant underlying space density the best estimate of $`M_o`$ is given by;

$$M_o=5log(\overline{10^{0.2M}})+1.151\sigma _t^20.23\sigma _1^2$$
(8)
Note that the coefficient of $`\sigma _t^2`$ in this equation is different from that in the conversion between $`M_o`$ and $`M_m`$, the mean value for objects of a given $`m_o`$ (=1.38). This latter factor is the well-known Malmquist (1920) bias, first given explicitly by Eddington (1914).

In the case of the Hipparcos parallaxes of Cepheids discussed by FC, the bias terms in equation 8 are negligibly small. The total bias correction is 0.010mag and this would change the PL zero-point from –1.43 to –1.42. The very small bias correction is due to the method of analysis adopted by FC. This was to reduce the intrinsic scatter about the PL relation by the combined use of a PL and PC relation for reddening correction and the determination of relative absolute magnitudes. If this is not done it might be necessary to consider whether Cepheids are distributed uniformly throughout a strip in the PL plane, at least at long periods. In that case, and assumimg $`\sigma _{m_o}`$ is small and a constant space density distribution, equation 5 above would need to be replaced by;

$$\overline{e^{bϵ}}=3sinh(2b\mathrm{\Delta })/2sinh(3b\mathrm{\Delta })$$
(9)
where $`\mathrm{\Delta }`$ is the halfwidth of the strip in magnitudes. If one adopts $`2\mathrm{\Delta }0.7`$mag at $`V`$ from the longer period LMC Cepheids (Caldwell & Coulson 1986), the correction factor would be $`+0.05`$mag.

The above considers the case when the objects have a mean absolute magnitude per unit volume of $`M_o`$ with a gaussian scatter $`\sigma _{M_o}`$. In a number of cases the relative absolute magnitudes of the objects concerned are known through the measurement of some auxilliary quantity, $`y`$, and a relation of the form;

$$M_o=Ay+B$$
(10)
where A is a known constant. Two separate cases then arise. if the measuring error in $`y`$, $`\sigma _y`$, introduces an error in $`M_o`$ which is negligibly small compared with the intrinsic dispersion in $`M_o`$ at a given $`y`$, then the results given above apply in this case with obvious modifications to equation 1 (see Feast 1987). If this is not the case, then the quantities $`v(x)`$ etc. have to be replaced by $`P(x)`$ etc., where $`P(x)`$ is the distribution in $`x`$ of the objects actually under discussion (i.e. taking into account that only a fraction, $`f(x)`$, of all the objects may have been observed at a given $`x`$ (see Feast 1972). This procedure essentially involves using the inverse solution of equation 10. In the case of the Hipparcos Cepheids, the quantity $`y`$ is the period and this is very accurately known, so that the earlier discussion holds in this case.

Even in the case of Mira variables, the percentage uncertainty in the periods probably makes a much smaller contribution to the uncertainty in $`M_o`$ than the intrinsic dispersion. Thus equation 8 can be applied to the discussion of the Hipparcos parallaxes of these stars by Whitelock & Feast (2000). These workers found an infrared PL zero-point of $`+0.84\pm 0.14`$. Using their data one obtains from equation 8 a correction of $`0.02`$mag, making the zero-point $`+0.86\pm 0.14`$.

There is another source of bias that should be discussed. In an analysis it is necessary to work with $`m_o`$, the absorption free absolute magnitude. Evidently if absorption is present, objects of a given $`m_o`$ will have a range of uncorrected apparent magnitudes and selection according to apparent magnitude will affect the bias correction. In general absorption increases with distance. Thus if the fraction of objects of a given apparent magnitude observed decreases with increasing apparent magnitude, this will have the effect of reducing the fraction of objects of a given $`x`$ whose true distance modulus is greater than ($`m_oM_o`$). Thus absorption, if it affects the bias, is likely to do so by reducing the number of objects in the sample whose lumniosities are greater than the average at a given $`m_o`$. This means for instance that, if anything, the coefficient of the second term of the r.h.s of equation 8 will need decreasing. Thus the value of $`M_o`$ produced from an unchanged equation 8 would be too faint.

## 3 Observations of Individual Objects

Provided there is no systematic error in the measuring process, an observed parallax is not in itself biased. This was, in fact, clearly recognized by Lutz & Kelker (1973) who point out that the distribution of measured parallaxes about the true parallax is expected to be gaussian. So provided the objects concerned are not chosen or weighted by their measured $`\pi `$ or by $`\sigma _\pi /\pi `$, an analysis is not subject to bias of the Lutz-Kelker type. This has been stressed recently by e.g. Whitelock & Feast (2000) and Groenewegen & Oudemaijer (2000).

It is of interest to consider the case when only one object of a class is measured, as in the important Hubble Space telescope (HST) observations of the parallaxes of RR Lyrae and $`\delta `$ Cephei (Benedict et al. 2002a, Benedict et al. 2002b). These stars were presumably chosen as bright members of their class and their HST parallaxes subsequently measured. The absolute magnitudes derived from the parallaxes are therefore not subject to Lutz-Kelker bias. However, since the method of determining an absolute magnitude from a single object is effectively the method of reduced parallaxes applied to one member alone of the class, the bias corrections outlined above will be required, i.e. for the case of an adopted uniform space distribution of the objects of the class, equation 8, if an estimate of $`M_o`$ is required. If the best estimate of the absolute magnitude of the individual object itself is wanted then, obviously, the term in $`\sigma _t`$ in equation 8 is not required.

In the case of $`\delta `$ Cephei (Benedict et al. 2002b) and adopting their parallax, apparent magnitude and reddening, and with $`\sigma _{M_o}=0.21`$ (Caldwell & Coulson 1986), $`\sigma _1=0.1`$ and assuming $`\sigma _{m_o}`$ can be neglected one obtains an estimate of $`M_o`$ of $`3.41\pm 0.10`$ and a zero-point of the PL relation adopted by FC of $`1.36\pm 0.10`$. Alternatively one can use the PL and PC relations together for the reasons discussed above to obtain the reddening and absolute magnitude. This gives $`M_o=3.37\pm 0.10`$ and a PL zero-point of $`1.32\pm 0.10`$ which may be compared with the FC zero-point (corrected as above) of $`1.42\pm 0.12`$ (where the standard error of FC has been increase from $`0.10`$ for reasons given in Feast 1999). Evidently the agreement is good, as it is with other Cepheid zero-point estimates (see e.g. Feast 2002). Note that, although uncertainty in the reddening is a limiting factor in these determinations of absolute magnitude, it is not important in the use of Cepheids as distance indicators so long as a consistent reddening scale is used for both calibrators and programme stars. This is most easily accomplished using a standard PC relation. The application of the Cepheid scale to derive the distance of the LMC is made somewhat uncertain by the need for rather poorly known metallicity corrections. However, this is not a problem in their use in the HST “key” programme on extragalactic Cepheids (Freedman et al. 2001) since the weighted mean metallicity of these galaxies is close to solar (Feast 2001).

In the case of RR Lyrae, using the adopted parallax, apparent magnitude and reddening from Benedict et al. (2002a) and assuming RR Lyrae variables of the relevant metallicity (\[Fe/H\] = –1.39) uniformly fill an instability strip of width $`0.4`$mag, as is the case in globular clusters (see Sandage 1990, especially fig. 16), one obtains as an estimate of the absolute magnitude of RR Lyrae variables at an \[Fe/H\] of –1.39, $`M_o=+0.64\pm 0.11`$. It has of course to be realized that, especially in the case of single objects, the uncertainty in any applied bias corrections is large.

Obviously the same general arguments apply if more than one object of a class is observed. Bias of the Lutz-Kelker type arises when the individual absolute magnitudes of objects derived from parallaxes are combined by weighting them using the observed parallaxes. The effect of this on the weighting is illustrated in a practical case in Feast (1998). In some at least of these cases there will also be selection by apparent magnitude, so that corrections such as that given by equation 8 will apply in addition to the Lutz-Kelker correction.

## 4 Conclusion

The bias corrections to the absolute magnitude scales of Cepheids, RR Lyraes and Miras discussed in this paper are all relatively small. However, with the forthcoming great improvements in parallax measurements expected from GAIA and other space missions, bias corrections of this type will become increasingly significant relative to other sources of uncertainty.

## Acknowledgments

I am grateful to the referee (Dr G.F. Benedict) for his comments.


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# Measurement of the Flux of Ultrahigh Energy Cosmic Rays from Monocular Observations by the High Resolution Fly’s Eye Experiment.

The High Resolution Fly’s Eye Collaboration

## Abstract

We have measured the cosmic ray spectrum above $`10^{17.2}`$ eV using the two air fluorescence detectors of the High Resolution Fly’s Eye observatory operating in monocular mode. We describe the detector, photo-tube and atmospheric calibrations, as well as the analysis techniques for the two detectors. We fit the spectrum to a model consisting of galactic and extra-galactic sources.

The highest energy cosmic rays detected so far, of energies up to and exceeding $`10^{20}`$ eV, are very interesting in that they shed light on two important questions: the nature of their origin in astrophysical or other sources and their propagation to us through the Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation (CMBR). The production of pions from interactions of CMBR photons and Ultra High Energy Cosmic Rays (UHECR) is an important energy loss mechanism above $`10^{19.8}`$ eV, and produces the Greisen-Zatsepin-K’uzmin (GZK) effect gr ; zk ; $`e^+e^{}`$ production in the same collisions is a weaker energy-loss mechanism above a threshold of $`10^{17.8}`$ eV. We report here the flux of UHECR from $`10^{17.2}`$ eV to over $`10^{20}`$ eV, measured in monocular mode, with the High Resolution Fly’s Eye (HiRes) detectors.

The HiRes observatory consists of two air-fluorescence detector sites separated by 12.6 km and located at the U.S. Army Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Cosmic rays interacting in the upper atmosphere initiate particle cascades known as extensive air-showers. Passage of charged particles excites nitrogen molecules causing emission of (mostly) ultraviolet light. The fluorescence yield has been previously measured by Kakimoto et al. kakimoto , and more recently by Nagano et al. nagano  For this analysis, we used the fluorescence spectrum compiled by Bunner bunner  and normalized it to the yield of Kakimoto. By measuring the longitudinal development of the fluorescence signal, one can infer the arrival direction, energy and average composition of the primary cosmic ray. HiRes was designed to measure the fluorescence light stereoscopically. However our two detectors trigger and reconstruct events independently. In this “monocular” mode our current data have significantly better statistical power and cover a much wider energy range than our stereo sample.

The two HiRes detector sites, referred to as HiRes-I and HiRes-II, are operated on clear, moon-less nights. Over a typical year, each detector accumulates up to 1000 hours of observation. The HiRes-I site has been in operation since June of 1997 hr1\_det . It consists of 21 detector units, each equipped with a $`5`$m2 spherical mirror and 256 photo-tube pixels at its focal plane. Each photo-tube covers a $`1^{}`$ cone of sky. These 21 mirrors cover elevation angles between 3 and 17. The HiRes-I electronics perform sample-and-hold integration in a 5.6 $`\mu `$s window, which is long enough to contain signals from all reconstructible events. The HiRes-II site was completed in late 1999 and began observations that year. This site uses the same type of mirrors and photo-tubes as HiRes-I, but contains 42 mirrors, in two rings, covering elevation angles from 3 to 31. HiRes-II uses an FADC data acquisition system operating at 10 MHz hr2\_det . Both the HiRes-I and -II sites provide $`2\pi `$ azimuthal angle coverage.

To determine the correct shower energies, the air fluorescence technique requires accurate measurement and monitoring of photo-tube gains. Two methods of calibration are used. Pulses from a YAG laser are distributed to mirrors via optical fibers. They provide a nightly relative calibration. A stable, standard light source is used for a more precise monthly absolute calibration. Overall, the relative photo-tube gains were stable to within 3.5% and the absolute gains were known to $`\pm 10\%`$ hr\_cal .

A second variable in the energy measurement is atmospheric clarity. Light from air showers is attenuated by: (a) molecular (Rayleigh), and (b) aerosol scattering. The former is approximately constant, subject only to small variations in the atmospheric overburden. The aerosol concentration varies with time. HiRes measures the aerosol content by observing scattered light from two steerable laser systems. The laser observed by HiRes-I has been in operation since 1999. The vertical aerosol optical depth from ground to 3.5 km altitude, $`\tau _A`$, is measured each hour (the vertical transmission through the aerosol is $`T=e^{\tau _A}`$). Over two years, these measurements yielded an average $`\tau _A`$ at 355 nm of 0.04 hr\_atm . The RMS of the distribution is 0.02, and the systematic uncertainty in the mean is no larger than this. The average aerosol ground-level horizontal extinction length, $`\mathrm{\Lambda }_H`$, was determined to be 25 km. Because about half of our data were collected before the steerable lasers were in operation we used these averages in our analysis and simulation.

Between June 1997 and February 2003, the HiRes-I detector operated for approximately 3600 hours. From this, 2820 hours of good weather data were analyzed. We selected 5.5 million downward, track-like events. For each of these, a shower-detector plane was determined from the pattern of photo-tube hits. We excluded events containing an average number of photo-electrons per photo-tube of less than 25, where fluctuations in signals are too great to permit reliable reconstruction. We also cut out tracks with angular speed in excess of $`3.33^{}/\mu `$s; for these events (typically within 5 km of HiRes-I) the shower maxima appear above the field of view. We selected 12,709 events for reconstruction.

Determination of the shower geometry is possible in monocular mode. The impact parameter, $`R_p`$, and the angle of the shower in the plane containing the shower and the detector, $`\psi `$, are found by fitting the photo-tube trigger times to the angles at which they view the shower. However, HiRes-I monocular events are too short in angular spread for reliable pure-timing fit. For this analysis, the expected form of the shower development was used to constrain the time fit to yield realistic geometries. The shower profile is assumed to be described by the Gaisser-Hillas parameterization gh , which has been found to be in good agreement with previous HiRes measurements hr\_prof  and with CORSIKA/QGSJET simulations csong ; corsika ; qgsjet . This technique is called the Profile-Constrained Fit (PCF). We allowed the shower maximum, $`x_m`$ to vary in 35 g/cm2 steps between 680 and 900 g/cm2, matching the expected range of $`x_m`$ for proton to iron primaries. After reconstruction, we require a minimum track arc length of 8.0 and a maximum depth for the highest elevation hit of 1000 g/cm2. Significant contamination from the forward-beamed direct Čerenkov light degrades the reliability of the PCF. Therefore, we rejected tracks with $`\psi >120^{}`$ and those with two or more angular bins of the shower with $`>`$25% Čerenkov light. A total of 6,920 events remained.

Monte Carlo studies were performed to assess the reliability of the PCF method. The simulated events were subjected to the same selection criteria and cuts imposed on the data. An RMS energy resolution of better than 20% was seen above $`10^{19.5}`$ eV. However, the resolution degrades at lower energies to about 25% at $`10^{18.5}`$ eV. These Monte Carlo results were cross-checked by examination of a smaller set of stereo events where the geometry is more precisely known. Comparing the energies reconstructed using monocular and stereo geometries, we obtained resolutions similar to those seen in simulation.

The simulation is also used to calculate the aperture. To verify the reliability of this calculation, we compared Monte Carlo distributions of many geometrical and physical variables to the actual data, and consistently found good agreement. The Monte Carlo predictions for the zenith angle and impact parameter ($`R_p`$), in particular, are sensitive to the detector operating parameters. We use input parameters representative of actual running conditions, and again see good agreement between data and simulation. For example, we show the comparison of $`R_p`$ distribution at three energies in Figure 1.

The analysis of HiRes-II monocular data was similar to that for HiRes-I. The data sample was collected during 142 hours of good weather between Dec. 1999 and May 2000. This period represents the first stable running of the HiRes-II detector. At the end of this period, a considerable change was made in the trigger, so that subsequently collected data will be analyzed separately. With the greater elevation coverage at HiRes-II, it was feasible to reconstruct the shower geometry from timing alone (the PCF is unnecessary). Therefore we were able to loosen some cuts for the HiRes-II fits. At this stage 104,048 downward-going events remained.

With the geometry of the shower known, we fit the measured shower profile to the Gaisser-Hillas parameterization gh . The events were required to have a good fit to the Gaisser-Hillas function, to have a track length greater than 10 for upper ring or multi-mirror events, a track length greater than 7 for lower ring events, an angular speed less than $`11^{}/\mu `$s (the larger cut for HiRes-II reflects its extended elevation coverage), a zenith angle less than 60, and a shower maximum visible in our detector. There was also a cut on the size of the Čerenkov light subtraction at $`<`$ 60% of signal. Again, the same selections and cuts were applied to both simulated and real events. There were 781 events left after these cuts. These simulations also gave excellent reproduction of the data, as seen, for example, in the comparison of the number of photo-electrons per degree of track in Fig. 2.

For both HiRes-I and HiRes-II events, the photo-electron count was converted to a shower size at each atmospheric depth, using the known geometry of the shower, and corrected for atmospheric attenuation. We integrated the resulting function over $`x`$ and then multiplied by the average energy loss per particle to give the visible shower energy. A correction for energy carried off by non-observable particles to give the total shower energy ($`10\%`$csong  was then applied.

The monocular reconstruction apertures are shown in Fig. 3. Both approach $`10^4`$ km2sr above $`10^{20}`$ eV. We restrict our result for HiRes-I to energies $`>10^{18.5}`$ eV; below this the PCF technique is unstable. Due to longer tracks and additional timing information, the RMS energy resolution for HiRes-II remains better than 30% down to $`10^{17.2}`$ eV. However, the HiRes-II data become statistically depleted above $`10^{19}`$ eV.

We calculated the cosmic ray flux for HiRes-I above $`10^{18.5}`$ eV, and for HiRes-II above $`10^{17.2}`$ eV. This combined spectrum is shown in Fig. 4, where the flux $`J(E)`$ has been multiplied by $`E^3`$. The error bars represent the 68% confidence interval for the Poisson fluctuations in the number of events. The HiRes-I flux is the result of two independent analyses tareq ; zhang .

The largest systematic uncertainties in the energy scale are the absolute calibration of the photo-tubes ($`\pm 10`$%) hr\_cal , the fluorescence yield ($`\pm 10`$%) kakimoto ; nagano , and the correction for unobserved energy in the shower ($`\pm 5`$%) csong ; linsley . Excluding atmospheric effects, the energy scale uncertainty is $`\pm 15`$%. This translates to a systematic uncertainty in the flux, $`J(E)`$, of $`\pm 27`$%.

We estimate the atmospheric contribution to the energy error by repeating the event reconstruction with $`\tau _A`$ varied by $`\pm 1`$ RMS value, from 0.04 to 0.06 and 0.02. While a $`\pm 0.02`$ change in $`\tau _A`$ represents a $`\pm 50`$% change in aerosol concentration, that contribution to the attenuation at these levels is small, and a 0.02 change modifies the transmission by only $`10`$% at 25 km from the detector. We found the reconstructed geometries of HiRes-I events above $`10^{18.5}`$ eV to be insensitive to changes in assumed $`\tau _A`$, and we saw a maximum change in the energy of $`\pm 13`$% at $`10^{20}`$ eV, decreasing to $`\pm 6`$% at $`10^{18.5}`$ eV. The geometries of the HiRes-II events do not depend on $`\tau _A`$ at all, and the change in energy scale for these are typically 6% or less. Taking the HiRes-I average energy shift, 9%, the overall systematic uncertainty in energy scale, including atmospheric effects, then becomes $`\pm 17`$%.

We also recalculated the aperture and the flux with $`\tau _A`$ changed by $`\pm 0.02`$. From these we obtained an average atmospheric uncertainty in $`J(E)`$ of $`\pm 15`$%, and an uncertainty in the flux of $`\pm 31`$%. The overall systematic uncertainties in the flux, including the energy-dependent atmospheric contribution (with a slope in $`|\mathrm{\Delta }J(E)|`$ of about 5% per decade of energy) are indicated by the shaded region in Figure 4. The relative calibration uncertainty between the two detector sites is less than 10%.

Our data contain two events at or above $`10^{20}`$ eV, measured at $`1.0`$ and $`1.5\times 10^{20}`$ eV. Assuming a purely molecular atmosphere ($`\tau _A=0.0`$), we obtain lower energy limits of $`0.9`$ and $`1.2\times 10^{20}`$ eV. In the energy range where both detectors’ data have good statistical power, the results agree with each other very well. However, our flux values are on average 13% lower than the stereo spectrum reported by Fly’s Eye fester . This difference can be explained by a 7% offset in the energy calibration alone, well within the stated uncertainty of the two experiments.

The GZK effect predicts a suppression in the UHECR flux above $`10^{19.8}`$ eV. We fit our data to a model consisting of galactic and extra-galactic sources waxman , that includes the GZK effect. We use the extra-galactic source model of Berezinsky et al. kn:berezinsky , where we assume a uniform (over the Universe) proton source distribution with a maximum at-source energy of $`10^{21}`$ eV, and a galactic spectrum consistent with observations that the composition changes from heavy to light near $`10^{18}`$ eV. The $`\chi ^2`$ of this fit is 48.5 for 37 degrees of freedom, and the fit is shown in Fig. 4. Details can be found in hires\_astroph . In this model the fall-off above $`\mathrm{log}E`$ of 19.8 is due to crossing the pion production threshold, and the second knee comes from $`e^+e^{}`$ pair production pile-up.

For comparison, the published AGASA spectrum agasa  is shown in Fig. 4. Compared to the HiRes monocular spectrum, the AGASA flux values are about 60-70% higher. The AGASA data contain 11 events above $`10^{20}`$ eV and 24 above $`10^{19.8}`$ eV, with an integrated exposure of $`1.0\times 10^3`$ km2sr-yr. The HiRes data have two events at or above $`10^{20}`$ eV, and 10 above $`10^{19.8}`$ eV, with exposures of $`2.4`$ and $`2.2\times 10^3`$ km2sr-yr. at these two energies. If we were to increase the HiRes energy scale by $`17`$% (one RMS systematic deviation), the number of events above $`10^{20}`$, and $`10^{19.8}`$ eV would become three and 20. A decrease in energy scale of $`17`$% changes these numbers to one and 6.

This work is supported by US NSF grants PHY-9321949 PHY-9974537, PHY-9904048, PHYS-0245428, PHY-0140688, by the DOE grant FG03-92ER40732, and by the Australian Research Council. We gratefully acknowledge the contributions from the technical staffs of our home institutions and the Utah Center for High Performance Computing. The cooperation of Colonels E. Fischer and G. Harter, the US Army, and the Dugway Proving Ground staff is greatly appreciated.


text:
# Three Epochs of Star Formation in the High Redshift Universe

## 1 Introduction

An important challenge in modern cosmology is to understand how the cosmic “dark ages” ended (for a recent review, see Barkana & Loeb, 2001). There is growing theoretical evidence indicating that the first luminous objects to form in the universe were very massive stars with typical masses $`M_{}100\text{M}\text{}`$ (Bromm, Coppi & Larson, 1999, 2002; Abel, Bryan & Norman, 2000, 2002; Nakamura & Umemura, 2001). These stars formed out of metal-free gas in dark matter (DM) halos of mass $`10^510^6\text{M}\text{}`$ at redshifts $`z20`$ (e.g., Tegmark et al., 1997; Fuller & Couchman, 2000). Typically, simulations predict that the halos hosting this process should contain either one or a few dense massive clumps of baryonic matter, with the most massive clump situated nearest to the center of the halo being the one to collapse first and to presumably form a very massive star (VMS). On the other hand, conditions in the universe less than $`10^9`$ yr after the big bang must have allowed for the formation of low-mass stars, with typical masses of $`1\text{M}\text{}`$, as is implied by the ages of the oldest globular clusters in the Galactic halo with metallicities of $`Z10^2\text{Z}\text{}`$ (e.g., Ashman & Zepf, 1998; Bromm & Clarke, 2002). In this paper, we investigate the question: How and when did the transition from the formation of very massive stars at high redshifts to that of more normal, low-mass stars at later times take place?

Observations have recently provided hints to the character of star formation at $`z5`$. The abundance of C IV in the low-column density Ly$`\alpha `$ forest indicates that the intergalactic medium (IGM) was enriched with heavy elements to a level of $`Z10^{3.5}\text{Z}\text{}`$ already at $`z5`$ (Songaila, 2001). In addition, abundance patterns in Ly$`\alpha `$ systems out to $`z4.6`$ are suggestive of an early, prompt nucleosynthetic inventory of heavy elements from a generation of very massive stars (Qian, Sargent & Wasserburg, 2002).

Elucidating the cosmic star formation history in the high redshift universe is crucial for predicting what observatories such as the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) will observe at $`z>5`$ less than a decade from now. In particular, it is important to ascertain the rates and properties of high redshift supernovae (SNe) which are likely to be the brightest beacons heralding the end of the “dark ages” (Miralda-Escudé & Rees, 1997). Similarly, gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are expected to trace the formation history of massive stars out to very high redshifts (Totani, 1997; Wijers et al., 1998; Blain & Natarajan, 2000). In fact, the top-heavy initial mass function (IMF) predicted for the first stars favors the massive stars which are the likely source of GRB progenitors. Constraining how stars form at high $`z`$, therefore, is of great relevance for interpreting the results of the upcoming Swift satellite (Bromm & Loeb, 2002).

Here, we examine processes related to star formation in the high redshift universe using a simple analytical model that synthesizes a number of recent theoretical and observational results into a coherent framework. This idealized model is intended to emphasize the basic physical mechanisms, and we will complement it with detailed numerical simulations in future work.

The organization of the paper is as follows. In §2 we describe our high-redshift star formation model. A discussion of the various stellar populations that form at high $`z`$ is given in §3, while §4 presents observational consequences. Finally, §5 contains our conclusions and the outlook for future work.

## 2 Epochs of Star Formation at High Redshift

### 2.1 Cosmic Star Formation History

In general, VMSs will impart three forms of feedback on the IGM (e.g., Ciardi et al., 2000b): radiative, chemical, and mechanical. Owing to their high effective temperatures, $`T_{\mathrm{eff}}10^5`$K, these stars produce a large quantity of UV photons, roughly 10 times as many per stellar baryon as those from a “normal” stellar population characterized by a Salpeter IMF (Tumlinson & Shull, 2000; Bromm, Kudritzki & Loeb, 2001b). Upon its death after only $`3\times 10^6`$yr, a VMS explodes as a supernova and enriches the IGM with heavy elements, provided the star is not more massive than $`260\text{M}\text{}`$, in which case it is predicted to collapse entirely into a massive black hole without any concomitant metal ejection (Fryer, Woosley & Heger, 2001). We propose that this radiative and chemical feedback gives rise to two fundamental transitions in the cosmic star formation history at high $`z`$. The feedback from mechanical energy input into the IGM might lead to a distinct new population of stars, to be discussed in §3.

To assess the global feedback exerted by VMSs on the IGM, we need to know their formation rate. We calculate this rate according to the “single-burst” model of VMS formation introduced by Santos, Bromm & Kamionkowski (2002). This model adopts the observationally favored scenario in which the formation of cosmic structure has progressed hierarchically from small to large scales as described by the cold dark matter (CDM) model with a cosmological constant. Specifically, we assume a $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$CDM model with density parameters in matter $`\mathrm{\Omega }_m=1\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda }=0.3`$ and in baryons $`\mathrm{\Omega }_B=0.045`$, a Hubble parameter of $`h=H_0/(100\mathrm{k}\mathrm{m}\mathrm{s}^1\mathrm{Mpc}^1)=0.7`$, and a scale-invariant power spectrum of density fluctuations with a normalization $`\sigma _8=0.9`$. The abundance and merger history of the DM halos is given by the extended Press-Schechter formalism (Lacey & Cole, 1993). Within merging halos, stars form in gas that is able to cool efficiently, via either molecular or atomic hydrogen lines. These cooling mechanisms become effective at different minimum temperatures, $`T_{\mathrm{crit}}400`$ K and $`10^4`$K for molecular and atomic hydrogen, respectively (e.g., Barkana & Loeb, 2001). These temperature thresholds correspond to redshift-dependent minimum DM halo masses

$$M_{\mathrm{crit}}(z)10^8\text{M}\text{}\left(\frac{\mu }{0.6}\right)^{3/2}\left(\frac{T_{\mathrm{crit}}}{10^4\text{K}}\right)^{3/2}\left(\frac{1+z}{10}\right)^{3/2}\text{ ,}$$
(1)
where $`\mu `$ is the mean molecular weight ($`\mu =0.6`$ for ionized gas, and $`\mu =1.2`$ for neutral gas). Finally, the star formation efficiency is chosen to be $`\eta _{}=0.10`$. The “single-burst” model now assumes that VMS formation is accompanied by strong negative feedback effects on the star-forming gas (see below for a detailed discussion). In essence, VMSs are only allowed to form out of gas that has never perviously experienced star formation, in merging DM halos that cross $`M_{\mathrm{crit}}(z)`$ for the first time.

We only consider mergers in which the two progenitor halos are within a factor of 100 of each other in mass, although our results are quite similar (within a factor of 2) if this ratio is as low as 10 or as high as 300. We impose this limit because very minor mergers will not set off a burst of VMS formation, and also because they take a long time. Dynamical friction cannot cause halos to merge within a Hubble time if their mass ratio is large. Any uncertainty in the allowed mass ratio is significantly smaller than the uncertainty in the value of $`\eta _{}`$.

Figure 1 shows the resulting star formation histories. We here presume that VMS formation will have ceased at latest by $`z7`$, close to the estimated redshift of reionization (Barkana, 2002, and references therein). The precise redshift where VMS formation ends is uncertain, and is determined by the feedback effects that we will discuss below. For the sake of comparison, in Figure 1 we also show an analytical fit to the star formation history obtained by Springel & Hernquist (2002) from a series of cosmological simulations that incorporate a self-regulated model of quiescent star formation in a multi-phase interstellar medium. This latter history describes the formation of a normal, predominantly low-mass population of stars (see §3). Note that the Springel & Hernquist results were obtained for a cosmology with a slightly smaller value of $`\mathrm{\Omega }_B=0.04`$ than for our current analysis.

### 2.2 Radiative Feedback and the First Transition in the Star Formation History

In a hierarchical model of structure formation, the very first stars will form in small DM halos where gas cooling has to rely on the presence of molecular hydrogen. Initially, therefore, star formation proceeds along the molecular branch in Figure 1, and is characterized by a top-heavy IMF. This latter prediction follows from the microphysics of H2 cooling, leading to characteristic values of the gas temperature and density, thus imprinting a characteristic mass scale of a few $`100\text{M}\text{}`$ (Bromm et al., 2002). The very first stars derive from $`34\sigma `$ peaks and, albeit rare, efficiently produce Lyman-Werner (LW) photons with energies (11.2-13.6eV) just below the hydrogen ionization threshold. The LW photons are therefore free to propagate through an otherwise neutral IGM, readily destroying H2 in neighboring halos (Haiman, Rees & Loeb 1997, 2000; Ricotti, Gnedin & Shull 2001; but see Ciardi, Ferrara & Abel 2000a).

Very massive stars produce approximately $`10^4`$ LW photons per stellar baryon (Bromm et al., 2001b). Roughly, one can then estimate the redshift where star formation in low-mass halos (relying on H2 cooling) is no longer possible by demanding that there be of order one dissociating LW photon for each molecule in the IGM:

$$10^4f_{\mathrm{LW}}f_{\mathrm{diss}}\rho _{}(z_{12})f_{\mathrm{H}_2}\rho _\mathrm{B}\text{ .}$$
(2)
Here, $`\rho _\mathrm{B}=4.1\times 10^{31}`$g cm-3 is the comoving density in baryons, $`f_{\mathrm{LW}}`$ the escape fraction of LW photons from the star-forming halo, $`f_{\mathrm{diss}}`$ the fraction of absorptions that lead to dissociation, $`f_{\mathrm{H}_2}`$ the molecule fraction in the IGM, and

$$\rho _{}(z)=_z^{\mathrm{}}\psi _{}(z^{})\left|\frac{\mathrm{d}t}{\mathrm{d}z^{}}\right|dz^{}$$
(3)
is the comoving density in stars, with $`\psi _{}(z)`$ being the comoving star formation rate (SFR), in this case given by the molecular track in Figure 1, and the other symbols have their usual meaning (e.g., Bromm & Loeb, 2002).

In Figure 2, we evaluate this criterion with $`f_{\mathrm{LW}}=0.1`$, $`f_{\mathrm{diss}}=0.1`$ (Glover & Brand 2001) and $`f_{\mathrm{H}_2}=10^3`$, finding $`z_{12}30`$. We interpret this redshift as the approximate boundary between the first two epochs of cosmic star formation. Notice that this is a rather conservative estimate, as the fraction of gas in molecular form is only $`10^610^3`$, and the required number of LW photons might therefore be significantly smaller than the value derived from equation (2). It is also worth pointing out that such an early transition redshift is a direct consequence of the predicted top-heavy IMF for the first stars, with a factor $`10`$ enhancement in the production of LW photons per stellar baryon compared to the case of a standard Salpeter IMF (Bromm et al., 2001b). We have verified that this transition redshift is not very sensitive to variations within factors of a few in $`f_{\mathrm{LW}}`$ and $`f_{\mathrm{diss}}`$.

At lower redshifts, star formation can now only proceed in halos that are massive enough to cool via atomic hydrogen lines (corresponding to masses $`M10^8\text{M}\text{}`$). To form stars, the gas has to cool below the $`10^4`$K that can be reached by atomic line cooling. Ultimately, therefore, star formation in these massive halos still relies on cooling due to H2 which is expected to form in dense regions that are shielded from the LW background (Oh & Haiman, 2002). The same physical reasoning that leads to the prediction of a top-heavy IMF in small, $`10^6\text{M}\text{}`$, halos should then also apply to these more massive halos, regardless of whether H2 is initially present in them or not. The formation of stars along the atomic track (see Figure 2) during epoch 2 consequently proceeds with the same top-heavy IMF as in epoch 1.

The break in the star formation rate at $`z=30`$ is artificially sharp due to the simplicity of our modeling. In reality, this is likely to be a smoother transition because the molecular gas will not be dissociated instantaneously, and will not be completely dissociated in more massive halos (Machacek, Bryan & Abel, 2001). We do believe, however, that this transition will be rapid. The mean free path of LW photons at $`z=30`$ is $`\lambda _{\mathrm{mfp}}10\mathrm{Mpc}`$ (physical), much larger than the typical separation of $`10^6\text{M}\text{}`$ halos at this redshift ($`30\mathrm{kpc}`$). Photons travel this mean free path in $`10^7\mathrm{yr}`$, which is short compared to the Hubble time. For these reasons, a roughly uniform background of LW photons should be set up very quickly. The number of sources increases exponentially with time, so the background radiation level will increase rapidly until it is intense enough to dissociate most of the molecules in the universe.

The timescale for photodissociation of a molecule is inversely proportional to the intensity of the radiation field in the Lyman-Werner bands, $`J_{\mathrm{LW}}`$, and also depends on how well the molecule is shielded from the radiation. Oh & Haiman (2002) give the relationship as

$$t_{\mathrm{diss}}=2.1\times 10^4J_{21}^1f_{\mathrm{shield}}^1\mathrm{yr},$$
(4)
where $`J_{21}=J_{\mathrm{LW}}/10^{21}\mathrm{erg}\mathrm{cm}^2\mathrm{s}^1\mathrm{Hz}^1\mathrm{sr}^1`$, and $`f_{\mathrm{shield}}`$ takes into account the effects of $`\mathrm{H}_2`$ self-shielding and is given by $`f_{\mathrm{shield}}=\mathrm{min}[1,(N_{\mathrm{H}_2}/10^{14}\mathrm{cm}^2)^{0.75}]`$ (Draine & Bertoldi 1996). Thus, the dissociation time at fixed column density depends only on the background radiation intensity, approximately given by

$$J_{\mathrm{LW}}\frac{10^4hc}{4\pi m_\mathrm{H}}\rho _{}(z)\mathrm{exp}[\tau _{\mathrm{IGM}}],$$
(5)
assuming $`10^4`$ LW photons are produced per baryon of star formation (see above). The constants in this expression have their usual meaning. The optical depth of the IGM to LW photons is estimated to be $`\tau _{\mathrm{IGM}}23`$ (e.g., Ciardi et al., 2000a; Ricotti et al., 2001), reducing the UV flux by about an order of magnitude. Our formula for $`J_{\mathrm{LW}}`$ neglects the redshifting of photons out of the LW bands, but photons travel a mean free path in a small fraction of the Hubble time and so should be absorbed long before redshift effects become important.

In Figure 3 we show the dissociation time compared to the Hubble time as a function of redshift for different neutral hydrogen column densities. We also show the lifetime of a VMS for comparison. We have calculated the curves in Figure 3 for a molecular fraction of $`10^3`$, and with $`\tau _{\mathrm{IGM}}=2`$. A $`10^6\text{M}\text{}`$ halo at $`z=30`$ would have a hydrogen column density of $`4\times 10^{20}\mathrm{cm}^2`$ if it were a uniform sphere, and about 10 times larger if it had an isothermal density distribution (Glover & Brand, 2001). To relate this to the rarity of the peaks, we again consider $`z=30`$. A 3-sigma peak has a mass of only $`4\times 10^3\text{M}\text{}`$, and so does not collapse. The extremely rare peaks in the density field are thus responsible for dissociating the hydrogen molecules. The masses of halos corresponding to 4-, 5-, and 6-sigma peaks are $`5\times 10^5,1\times 10^7,\mathrm{and}1\times 10^8\text{M}\text{}`$, respectively. For a truncated isothermal sphere, this corresponds to column densities towards the center of the halos of $`N_\mathrm{H}6\times 10^{21},2\times 10^{22},\mathrm{and}4\times 10^{22}\mathrm{cm}^2`$. Comparing these column densities with the respective curves in Figure 3, we see that the dissociation timescales are always less than the Hubble time for even the rarest objects by $`z=30`$. Thus we tentatively conclude that this transition is indeed likely to be rapid.

### 2.3 Chemical Feedback and the Second Transition in the Star Formation History

Here, we make the simplifying assumption that all VMSs have masses in the range $`140M260\text{M}\text{}`$, and that they consequently explode as pair-instability supernovae (PISNe) which completely disrupt the star without leaving behind a compact remnant (Fryer et al. 2001; but see Umeda & Nomoto 2002). PISNe are predicted to have substantial metal yields, of order $`y=M_Z/M_{}0.50`$ (Heger & Woosley, 2002). The heavy elements that are produced in the SN explosions will enrich the host halo, and a fraction, $`f_{\mathrm{mix}}`$, of them will escape into the general IGM as a result of SN-driven outflows (e.g., Madau , Ferrara & Rees, 2001; Mori, Ferrara & Madau, 2002; Thacker, Scannapieco & Davis, 2002). While in §3 we predict that some low mass star formation will occur simultaneously with VMS formation, these stars will explode as type II supernovae which have a much lower metal yield ($`1\text{M}\text{}`$ per supernova). This means that their contribution to the metallicity of the universe is small as long as there is comparable star formation in VMSs, and we thus ignore any contribution from low mass stars in the following calculation.

With the star formation history described in Figure 2, we now calculate the resulting metal enrichment of the IGM

$$Z_{\mathrm{IGM}}(z)=yf_{\mathrm{mix}}\frac{\rho _{}(z)}{\rho _\mathrm{B}}\text{ ,}$$
(6)
where $`\rho _{}(z)`$ is the cumulative density in stars as given in equation (3). The crucial uncertainty is the fraction, $`f_{\mathrm{mix}}`$, of metals that are able to escape the star forming system, and to get mixed into the general IGM. For simplicity, we assume that all the metals escaping a star forming halo are mixed uniformly into the IGM. To bracket the likely cases, we calculate $`Z_{\mathrm{IGM}}(z)`$ for two values of the mixing efficiency: $`f_{\mathrm{mix}}=0.05`$ and 0.5. It appears likely that the presence of metals is the key determinant in ending the epoch of high-mass star formation (Omukai, 2000; Bromm et al., 2001a). These authors find that very massive stars can no longer form once the gas is enriched to a level in excess of $`Z_{\mathrm{crit}}10^{3.5}\text{Z}\text{}`$. The criterion for the second transition in the cosmic star formation history is then

$$Z_{\mathrm{IGM}}(z_{23})Z_{\mathrm{crit}}\text{ .}$$
(7)
In Figure 4, we show that this condition results in the approximate range, $`15z_{23}20`$, with the limits corresponding to the two assumptions for the mixing efficiency. In a somewhat different context, Schneider et al. (2002) have carried out a similar calculation, finding a transition redshift, $`z20`$, that is broadly consistent with our estimated range.

In reality, not all locations in the universe will have a metallicity close to the mean value calculated in equation (6). In fact, the gas in a star forming halo is likely to be rapidly enriched to a level $`Z_{\mathrm{crit}}`$ locally (see §3.3), in contrast to the rather slow enrichment of the general IGM. A substantial fraction of the Pop III metal production, however, is expected to escape from the shallow DM potential wells at high redshifts (e.g., Madau et al. 2001; Mori et al. 2002). In addition, the enriched gas has to travel much shorter distances between neigboring halos at these early times, and it might therefore have been easier to establish a uniform metal distribution in the IGM. The mean IGM metallicity in equation (6) would then indeed be a good indicator of when the universe as a whole will undergo the transition from predominantly Pop III to predominantly Pop II star formation. Clearly, a more realistic understanding of how the metals are mixed, and to what degree of homogeneity, can only be gained from numerical simulations.

In addition to the metal enrichment due to supernovae, the IGM could also be enriched due to winds from the first stars. The importance of such winds, however, is predicted to be small in the absence of metals and dust grains in the stellar atmosphere (e.g., Kudritzki 2002).

### 2.4 Implications

The sequence of star-forming modes proposed in this section is expected to apply equally to an individual halo (going through different ‘stages’ of star formation), and in a statistical sense to the universe as a whole (going through different ‘epochs’). It will be very interesting to determine the degree of synchronization in the star-formation modes between spatially disjoint regions of the universe. Is it possible that stars in a given location form in a different mode from that in a neighboring region? Or is the VMS feedback sudden enough to coordinate the star formation activity in a global fashion? We emphasize that answers to these important questions must await the results from full numerical simulations, and cannot be obtained from the simple analytical model presented in this paper.

By examining Figure 4, it appears that the IGM could reach a level of metal enrichment from VMS formation which is already close to that inferred for the low-column density Ly$`\alpha `$ forest at $`z5`$ (Songaila, 2001). Within the context of our model, the IGM would have been enriched with a ‘bedrock’ of metals, corresponding to $`Z_{\mathrm{IGM}}Z_{\mathrm{crit}}`$, already at $`z_{23}15`$. Again, a more realistic assessment of this hypothesis requires sophisticated numerical simulations.

## 3 Stellar Populations at High z

### 3.1 Three Basic Populations

As a consequence of our picture for high redshift star formation, we predict three distinct stellar populations at $`z5`$ (see Table 1). VMSs form out of gas with $`Z<Z_{\mathrm{crit}}`$ and constitute the ‘classic’ Population III. Low-mass stars, with typical masses of $`1\text{M}\text{}`$, that form out of already enriched gas with $`Z>Z_{\mathrm{crit}}`$ make up Population II. These stars are actually observed, e.g., in the halo of our Galaxy. Finally, we propose a mechanism for producing a novel Population II.5: intermediate-mass stars, forming out of gas with $`Z<Z_{\mathrm{crit}}`$, that owe their existence to the mechanical, SN-driven feedback from VMSs.

### 3.2 The Formation of Population II.5 Stars

We assume that the immediate progenitor of a star is a centrally concentrated, self-gravitating gaseous clump with a mass close to the Bonnor-Ebert value (e.g., Palla, 2002)

$$M_{\mathrm{BE}}700\text{M}\text{}\left(\frac{T}{200\mathrm{K}}\right)^{3/2}\left(\frac{n}{10^4\mathrm{cm}^3}\right)^{1/2}.$$
(8)
Here, the temperature and density are normalized to the characteristic values that follow from the microphysics of H2 cooling (see Bromm et al., 2002). Depending on the details of how the gas is accreted onto the nascent hydrostatic core in the center of the gravitationally unstable clump (e.g., Omukai & Palla, 2001; Ripamonti et al., 2002), the resulting stellar mass is expected to be somewhat smaller. We take this uncertainty into account by expressing the final stellar mass as $`M_{}\alpha M_{\mathrm{BE}}`$, and choose the efficiency to be $`\alpha 0.3`$. This value is close to that inferred for the formation of stars in the present-day universe (McKee & Tan, 2002). For Pop III stars we then have $`M_{}200\text{M}\text{}`$, in agreement with the results from numerical simulations. Notice that the effective star formation efficiency introduced in § 2.1 is given by $`\eta _{}f_{\mathrm{cool}}\alpha `$, where $`f_{\mathrm{cool}}`$ is the fraction of the gas that is incorporated into the cold, dense clumps.

As pointed out in § 2.3, the primordial gas cannot cool below $`200`$ K as long as $`Z<Z_{\mathrm{crit}}`$. A decrease in the stellar mass, therefore, has to rely on achieving higher densities, beyond the value of $`10^4`$cm-3 that characterizes Pop III star formation. We propose that such a boost in density can naturally occur in the cooled, dense shell behind a SN-driven shock wave, in the following way.

An exploding VMS drives a blast-wave into the surrounding medium that shock-heats the gas to a post-shock temperature approximately given by $`T_{\mathrm{ps}}(m_\mathrm{H}/k_\mathrm{B})u_{\mathrm{sh}}^2`$, where $`u_{\mathrm{sh}}`$ is the (time-dependent) shock speed. Initially, the shock will evolve adiabatically with only a modest increase in density, $`n_{\mathrm{ps}}/n_0(\gamma +1)/(\gamma 1)=4`$ for $`\gamma =5/3`$. Here, $`n_0`$ is the density of the undisturbed, preshock gas. Eventually, however, the shocked gas will be able to cool and, evolving roughly isobarically (e.g., Shapiro & Kang, 1987; Yamada & Nishi, 1998), reach much higher compression factors.

To assess whether the post-shock gas can cool sufficiently, we have implemented a simple one-zone model, solving for the thermal and chemical evolution in a homogeneous parcel of gas. The chemical reaction network and the cooling processes pertaining to primordial gas are described in Bromm et al. (2002). Under the assumption of isobaricity, the density evolves according to $`nn_0T_{\mathrm{ps}}/T`$. Assuming that the post-shock gas is initially fully ionized, the only free model parameters are $`n_0`$ and $`u_{\mathrm{sh}}`$. In Figure 5, we show the resulting temperature evolution for $`n_0=10^2`$cm-3, characteristic of the gas in the vicinity of a VMS (see Bromm et al., 2002), and $`u_{\mathrm{sh}}=200`$ km s-1, corresponding to $`T_{\mathrm{ps}}5\times 10^6`$K. In this case, the gas cools to $`T_f200`$ K within $`t10^2t_H(z=20)10^6`$yr, which is shorter than the lifetime of a VMS. The overall compression in the case of Figure 5 is then $`n_fn_0T_{\mathrm{ps}}/T_f10^4n_0`$. In general, the characteristic mass of a Pop II.5 star can be written as

$$M_{}(\mathrm{II}.5)10\text{M}\text{}\left(\frac{n_0}{10^2\mathrm{cm}^3}\right)^{1/2}\left(\frac{u_{\mathrm{sh}}}{200\mathrm{k}\mathrm{m}\mathrm{s}^1}\right)^1.$$
(9)
This expression implicitly assumes that the post-shock gas is able to cool to $`T_f200`$ K in a time that is short compared to the Hubble time. This requirement constrains the shock speed to be $`u_{\mathrm{sh}}300\mathrm{k}\mathrm{m}\mathrm{s}^1`$. The characteristic mass of a Pop II.5 star is consequently reduced by at least an order of magnitude compared to the Pop III case.

Within our model, the formation of Pop II.5 stars is directly linked to the death of a Pop III VMS. An important quantity then is the efficiency, $`\eta `$, of the formation process which we define as the mass ratio of intermediate mass (Pop II.5) stars to very massive (Pop III) stars

$$\eta \frac{M_{\mathrm{II}.5}}{M_{\mathrm{III}}}\frac{ϵ\mathrm{\Delta }M_{\mathrm{shell}}}{M_{}(\mathrm{III})},$$
(10)
where $`\mathrm{\Delta }M_{\mathrm{shell}}`$ is the mass of the cooled, dense shell, $`ϵ`$ the efficiency of forming stars out of this material, and $`M_{}(\mathrm{III})250\text{M}\text{}`$ the typical mass of a Pop III star. We assume that roughly one-half of the mass that has been swept up by the end of the energy-conserving (Sedov-Taylor) phase ends up in the dense shell

$$\mathrm{\Delta }M_{\mathrm{shell}}0.5\frac{4\pi }{3}R^3\rho _00.5\frac{E_0}{u_{\mathrm{sh}}^2},$$
(11)
where $`E_010^{53}`$erg is the kinetic energy of a PISN (Fryer et al., 2001). Taking the shock velocity at the onset of the radiative phase to be $`u_{\mathrm{sh}}300`$ km s-1, we thus estimate $`\mathrm{\Delta }M_{\mathrm{shell}}10^{4.5}\text{M}\text{}`$. In equation (10), we conservatively assume that only a small fraction of the dense material in the shell is available to form stars, $`ϵ0.01`$, and we therefore predict the efficiency of forming Pop II.5 stars to be small: $`\eta 10^2ϵ1`$.

We would like to stress that the considerations presented here can only serve to physically motivate the possibility of such an intermediate stellar population. To fully explore the viability of our proposal, we plan to investigate the propagation of a VMS SN with numerical simulations (for numerical work on shock-induced star formation in the present-day universe, see Vanhala & Cameron 1998 and references therein).

### 3.3 Implications

We propose that the three stellar populations discussed here can form only in certain of the epochs introduced in § 2. According to our metallicity criterion, Pop III star formation occurs exclusively during the first two epochs. As we have argued above, the formation of Pop II.5 stars is induced by the death of a Pop III star. Only the second epoch, however, is conducive to such a triggered star formation mechanism. In epoch 1, Pop III stars form in low-mass halos that are already severely disrupted by a single PISN. It is only later, in epoch 2 of the cosmic star formation history, that the then substantially more massive halos can survive a VMS explosion, and consequently enable the triggered formation of intermediate-mass, Pop II.5 stars. To see this more clearly, consider the binding energy of a halo of mass $`M`$, collapsing at redshift $`z`$ (Barkana & Loeb, 2001):

$$E_b10^{54}\mathrm{erg}\left(\frac{M}{10^8\text{M}\text{}}\right)^{5/3}\left(\frac{1+z}{25}\right).$$
(12)
Using equation (1), we evaluate this expression for $`MM_{\mathrm{crit}}(z25)`$, resulting in

$$E_b\{\begin{array}{cc}10^{49}\mathrm{erg}\hfill & \text{for H}\text{2}\text{ cooling}\hfill \\ 10^{53}\mathrm{erg}\hfill & \text{for H cooling}\hfill \end{array}\text{ .}$$

It is evident that the criterion for the formation of Pop II.5 stars, $`E_bE_010^{53}`$erg, is fulfilled in halos that cool via atomic hydrogen lines, but not in those that cool via H2.

Within the framework presented in this paper, Pop II stars can clearly form in epoch 3, at which point we assume that most of the IGM is enriched to a level in excess of $`Z_{\mathrm{crit}}`$. It is likely, however, that Pop II star formation already ensues during epoch 2. The metal enrichment due to VMSs is so efficient that the host system is expected to reach the critical metallicity well before the general IGM does. In fact, one can estimate that already one single VMS could enrich the $`10^7\text{M}\text{}`$ of gas in the typical star-forming halo in epoch 2 to the critical level:

$`Z_{\mathrm{halo}}`$ $`=`$ $`{\displaystyle \frac{M_Z}{M_B}}`$
$`=`$ $`{\displaystyle \frac{10^2\text{M}\text{}}{10^7\text{M}\text{}}}10^{3.3}\text{Z}\text{}Z_{\mathrm{crit}},`$
where we have assumed for simplicity that none of the metals have escaped the halo, corresponding to the limiting case of $`f_{\mathrm{mix}}=0`$ (see § 2.3).

During epoch 2, therefore, we expect all three stellar populations to occur almost simultaneously in a given star forming system. In Table 1, we summarize the association of the various stellar populations with the distinct epochs of star formation.

We now tentatively suggest how these stellar populations might relate to the different classes of SNe as proposed by Qian & Wasserburg (2002). These authors (henceforth QW) account for the observed abundance patterns in low-metallicity Galactic halo stars within the framework of three distinct classes of SNe. At the beginning of the nucleosynthetic chain, a generation of very massive stars explodes to enrich the primordial material mostly with Fe, but producing no elements beyond the iron peak. It seems natural to identify the QW VMS SNe with the Pop III PISNe discussed here. According to QW, at some later stage in the chemical enrichment history, more normal, type II, SNe begin to contribute nucleosynthetic products. More specifically, QW distinguish between a class of high-frequency and low-frequency type II SNe, named SN II(H) and SN II(L), respectively. The H events produce mainly the heavy r-process elements but no Fe, whereas the L events contribute mainly the light r-process elements as well as Fe. These two classes of SN II are postulated on purely phenomenological grounds, and it is presently not known what kind of progenitor stars could physically give rise to them. There are, however, some indications that the H events correspond to the explosion of comparatively low-mass stars that are only barely able to reach the SN stage (see QW and references therein). Given that Pop II.5 stars are more massive than Pop II stars by $``$one order of magnitude, we speculate that Population II.5 might predominantly give rise to SNe II(L), whereas Population II could lead to both the H and L events. Again, we summarize these proposed identifications in Table 1.

Regardless of the detailed correspondence discussed above, our general model for the character of star formation at high redshift seems to provide a promising astrophysical context for the QW proposal. More work, both observational and theoretical, is required to explore this possible connection further.

## 4 Observational Consequences

### 4.1 Supernova Rates as Star Formation Tracer

#### 4.1.1 Modeling

The cosmic supernova rate as a function of redshift is potentially an excellent tracer of the different modes of star formation envisaged in this paper. A number of authors have previously advocated this method of tracing star formation, predicting supernova rates based on the metallicity of the IGM at high redshifts (Miralda-Escudé & Rees, 1997), or on the empirically determined star formation rate out to $`z5`$ (e.g., Madau, Della Valle & Panagia, 1998; Sadat et al., 1998; Dahlén & Frannson, 1999). In our study, we use theoretical estimates of the cosmic star formation rate to predict the number of supernovae from VMSs and from regular stars (Pop II) out to much higher redshifts. Observational determinations of these rates will constrain the three epochs of star formation which we are proposing. Including observational selection functions is beyond the scope of this paper. We will, however, present rough estimates of the flux limit and wavelength coverage needed in order to observe SN explosions at high redshift. The observational capability of NGST has recently been studied for high-$`z`$ type II SNe (Dahlén & Frannson, 1999), and in a preliminary fashion for PISNe from VMSs (Heger et al., 2002).

We use the results of recent cosmological simulations by Springel & Hernquist (2002) to model the Pop II star formation history of the universe. These simulations agree roughly with observations of the star formation rate out to $`z5`$, but extend to much higher redshifts than are currently probed by direct observations, and also reproduce the mean density of stars in the universe. These authors provide a simple analytical fit to the SFR as follows:

$$\psi _{}(z;\mathrm{II})=K\frac{b\mathrm{exp}[a(zz_m)]}{ba+a\mathrm{exp}[b(zz_m)]},$$
(13)
where the normalization is $`K=0.15\text{M}\text{}\mathrm{yr}^1\mathrm{Mpc}^3`$ and the fitting parameters are $`a=3/5`$, $`b=14/15`$, and $`z_m=5.4`$. The time delay between the formation and explosion of a massive star is $`<20\mathrm{Myr}`$, and therefore the Type II supernova rate should trace the star formation rate almost exactly. For a Salpeter IMF, there is one Type II supernova (SN II) per $`150\text{M}\text{}`$ of star formation, and we consequently divide the SFR by this factor (which we call $`M_{\mathrm{SN}}(\mathrm{II})`$) to obtain the Pop II SN rate. Hernquist & Springel (2002) find that the SFR at $`z<z_m`$ in their simulations actually has a power-law dependence on the expansion rate, rather than evolving exponentially with redshift; however the fit given in the above equation is sufficient for our present purposes.

For the PISN rate we use the VMS star formation rate in Figure 2. The typical lifetime of a VMS is $`3\mathrm{Myr}`$ so we can again assume the SN rate traces the SFR closely. We take typical VMSs to have masses of $`250\text{M}\text{}`$ and assume they all die as supernovae to calculate the VMS supernova rate (i.e. $`M_{\mathrm{SN}}(\mathrm{III})=250\text{M}\text{}`$). VMSs are predicted to end their lives as pair-instability supernovae if $`M<260\text{M}\text{}`$, and these should be very energetic and luminous events. Bear in mind, however, that the mass function, and hence end state of Pop III stars is still somewhat uncertain, making this supernova rate a crude estimate.

We also calculate the rate of Pop II.5 supernovae, using the result from the last section that the Pop II.5 SFR is directly proportional to the Pop III SFR, with constant of proportionality $`\eta 1`$. Due to the uncertain nature of the Pop II.5 IMF we must make simple assumptions to get the mass in stars formed per supernova. The characteristic stellar mass was shown to be about $`10\text{M}\text{}`$, so we assume that half of the stellar mass goes into stars that can explode. We further assume that the average mass of a Pop II.5 supernova progenitor is $`20\text{M}\text{}`$. From this we find that $`M_{\mathrm{SN}}(\mathrm{II}.5)40\text{M}\text{}`$ for Pop II.5 supernovae. We expect these supernovae to be of Type II, although with very low metallicity.

We convert these rates per unit volume into rates observed per unit time and per unit redshift interval:

$`{\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{d}N}{\mathrm{d}t_{obs}dz}}`$ $`=`$ $`{\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{d}N}{(1+z)\mathrm{d}t_{em}\mathrm{d}V}}{\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{d}V}{\mathrm{d}z}}`$ (14)
$`=`$ $`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{M_{\mathrm{SN}}}}{\displaystyle \frac{\psi _{}(z)}{(1+z)}}{\displaystyle \frac{c}{H_0}}{\displaystyle \frac{4\pi f_{sky}r^2(z)}{\sqrt{\mathrm{\Omega }_m(1+z)^3+\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda }}}}.`$
Here $`\mathrm{d}V`$ is a comoving volume element, $`M_{\mathrm{SN}}`$ is the mass in stars formed per supernova for the relevant stellar population, $`f_{sky}`$ the fraction of the sky observed, and $`c/H_0`$ the Hubble length. Note that the Pop II.5 and Pop III supernova rates differ only in their respective values for $`M_{}`$ calculated above. The respective time intervals in the observer and emitter frames, $`\mathrm{d}t_{obs}`$ and $`\mathrm{d}t_{em}`$, are related by the factor of $`(1+z)`$ in the denominator. The comoving distance to redshift $`z`$ is

$$r(z)=\frac{c}{H_0}_0^z\frac{\mathrm{d}z^{}}{\sqrt{\mathrm{\Omega }_m(1+z^{})^3+\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda }}}.$$
(15)
#### 4.1.2 Results

The results for our cosmological parameters are shown in Figure 6, where we plot the number of supernovae that could be observed per year and per square degree. Note that this figure does not incorporate magnitude limits or observational selection functions, but does simply show the predicted number of supernovae that can in principle be observed.

The redshift distribution of SNe follows the star formation rate, peaking at $`z5`$ for Pop II, and showing the same break at $`z=30`$ for PISNe as in Figure 2. We expect the transition from predominantly PISNe to Pop II SNe to occur around a redshift of $`z1520`$ (see Figure 4), and we therefore show the rates for both types of supernova in this redshift range. As this transition occurs, we expect the Pop II SN rate to gradually drop below the solid line towards higher redshifts as Pop II star formation switches off. Similarly we expect the Pop III (Pop II.5) rate to drop below the dashed (dotted) line towards lower redshifts as Pop III star formation ceases. We do not expect any VMSs at $`z15`$, but we extend our calculation down to $`z=7`$ because the reionization of the universe at roughly this redshift provides a robust lower limit for the end of VMS formation (e.g., Oh et al., 2001). That the PISN and Pop II SN rates are so similar at the transition redshifts is because the star formation rate for Pop III at $`z15`$ which we predict analytically is similar to the rate (for Pop II) found in the simulations of Springel & Hernquist (see Figure 1). Again, we emphasize that the break in the VMS supernova rate at $`z=30`$ is artificially sharp, reflecting the abrupt transition in the underlying star formation rate.

In terms of total numbers of supernovae, we predict $`2\times 10^6`$ PISNe per year over the whole sky (above $`z=15`$), or about 50 per square degree per year. This still comprises only $`0.4`$% of all supernovae, as we find $`4\times 10^8`$ SNeII per year (all sky), a value comparable to previous estimates (Miralda-Escudé & Rees, 1997; Madau et al., 1998). This number can be understood by a simple order of magnitude estimate as follows. About 10% of the baryons in the universe are in stars by the present time, giving a local density in stars of $`\rho _{}0.1\mathrm{\Omega }_b\rho _{\mathrm{crit}}6\times 10^8\text{M}\text{}/\mathrm{Mpc}^3`$ for our cosmological parameters (Peebles, 1993). The size of the observable universe is $`10`$ Gpc out to $`z=5`$ (most of the star formation happens later than $`z=5`$ because there is very little physical time before this), so the total mass in stars in this volume, ignoring redshift evolution effects, is $`10^{21.5}\text{M}\text{}`$. About 10% of the mass in stars goes into stars which can explode, so the mass in supernovae is $`10^{20.5}\text{M}\text{}`$. The mass weighted average for a supernova progenitor’s mass is $`30\text{M}\text{}`$, and the age of the universe is $`14\mathrm{Gyr}`$. The number of supernovae per year is then

$$\frac{\mathrm{d}N}{\mathrm{d}t_{\mathrm{obs}}}\frac{10^{20.5}}{30\times 14\times 10^9\mathrm{yr}}7\times 10^8\mathrm{SNe}\mathrm{yr}^1,$$
(16)
similar to our numerical integration of the calculated SN rate. All calculations of the SN rate based on the cosmic SFR are expected to yield an answer around this value.

#### 4.1.3 Observational Prospects

We now address the question of whether any of these supernovae at very high redshift could be observed in the foreseeable future. Type Ia supernovae have a peak B-magnitude of $`M_B19`$, with Type II supernovae being about 2.5 magnitudes fainter (e.g., Filippenko, 1997). VMSs are predicted to end their lives as pair instability supernovae if their mass is in the range $`140\text{M}\text{}<M<260\text{M}\text{}`$ (Heger & Woosley, 2002), but they have not yet been observed and their luminosity is not well known. Heger & Woosley (2002) have shown that they can produce large masses of 56Ni during supernova nucleosynthesis. If the light curve is powered by 56Ni decay, then these supernovae should be brighter than Type Ia’s by a large factor (the ratio of their 56Ni production). Preliminary results from Heger et al. (2002) show that reality is somewhat more complicated, and these authors find that a PISN is only a factor of a few brighter than a type Ia. Because of this uncertainty in luminosity, we will calculate the apparent brightness of a type Ia SN at large redshifts, and scale this up for the brighter PISN. The apparent brightness in a flat universe is given by

$$f_\nu (z)=\frac{L_{(1+z)\nu }}{4\pi (1+z)r^2(z)},$$
(17)
where $`L_\nu `$ is the monochromatic luminosity of the source at redshift $`z`$. For $`z=20`$, $`M_B=19`$, and our cosmological parameters we obtain

$$f_\nu (\lambda _{\mathrm{obs}}9\mu \mathrm{m},z=20)5\mathrm{nJy}.$$
(18)
The observed wavelength of $`9\mu \mathrm{m}`$ is the redshifted $`B`$-band. If the flux does not drop off too much in the rest frame near-UV, then there should be a similar flux level in the near-IR ($`\lambda <5\mu \mathrm{m}`$) where NGST should have sub-nJy sensitivity (Barkana & Loeb, 2001). This indicates that even a Type Ia SN should be observable with NGST out to $`z20`$, and PISNe should be easily observable if they are at least a few times brighter. Type II supernovae, on the other hand, will be very hard to detect at these high redshifts because they are typically a factor of 10 fainter. For this reason, even though we predict Pop II.5 supernovae to be more numerous than PISNe, we expect that they will not be nearly as useful as observational probes of the high redshift universe. Of course observing them would be useful for assessing the efficiency of low mass star formation, and for testing our shock compression model.

Marri & Ferrara (1998) have discussed the feasibility of using gravitational lensing magnification due to intervening mass concentrations to observe high redshift supernovae more easily, and potentially bring even type II supernovae within reach of NGST at $`z10`$. Similar considerations also apply to our calculations, and this may help in obtaining detailed observations of PISNe. It is important to be able to identify them reliably, distinguish them from other types of supernova, and measure their redshift if we are to use them for cosmological purposes. To be able to do this, we need a sample of SNe that are bright enough for spectroscopic observations. Since none have been observed locally, we need the additional lensing magnification to investigate SNe in detail at high redshift.

### 4.2 Metal Poor Halo Stars

If our mechanism for producing extremely low metallicity, low mass stars (Pop II.5 in our terminology) via shock compression occurs in reality, then some of these stars should still be present in the halo of our galaxy. They would of course be very old ($`14`$ Gyr), so only the lowest mass stars with $`M0.8\text{M}\text{}`$ would remain (Girardi et al., 2000; Siess, Livio & Lattanzio, 2002). We can use our model to predict how many such stars we would expect to find in a typical Milky Way-sized halo and, given a model for the stellar halo density profile, their number density in the solar neighborhood (we use a similar approach to that of Hernandez & Ferrara 2001). Significant uncertainties in this calculation are the efficiency of producing Pop II.5 stars (as discussed in §3.2), the fraction of them that end up in the halo as opposed to the bulge, and their mass function.

The star formation rate of Pop II.5 stars is given by $`\psi _{}(z;\mathrm{II}.5)=\eta \psi _{}(z;\mathrm{III})`$ in the redshift range when they form. There is a slight difference to the way $`\psi _{}(z;\mathrm{III})`$ is calculated for this problem, in that we are interested in the stars that end up in the Milky Way (MW) halo. Therefore, instead of the usual Press-Schechter mass function in the Santos et al. (2002) model, we use the Extended Press-Schechter mass function of halos at redshift $`z`$ which will end up in a halo the mass of the MW at $`z=0`$ (Lacey & Cole, 1993).

For a MW mass (total) of $`M_{\mathrm{MW}}=10^{12}\text{M}\text{}`$ we find that $`10^{7.5}\text{M}\text{}`$ of Pop III stars are formed in MW progenitor halos, over the redshift range from $`z=30`$ to $`z=15`$ in which we expect Pop II.5 stars to form. Interestingly, because the metal yield of PISNe is $`0.5`$, this results in a MW metal enrichment of

$$Z0.5\times \left(\frac{10^{7.5}\text{M}\text{}}{10^{12}\text{M}\text{}}\right)\left(\frac{\mathrm{\Omega }_m}{\mathrm{\Omega }_b}\right)\left(\frac{\text{Z}\text{}}{0.02}\right)10^2\text{Z}\text{},$$
(19)
similar to the metallicity of the lowest metallicity globular clusters and thick disk stars (\[Fe/H\]$`=2.2`$, Freeman & Bland-Hawthorn 2002).

For a given value of $`\eta `$, this mass in Pop III stars gives us the corresponding mass in Pop II.5 stars:

$$M_{\mathrm{II}.5}10^{7.5}\text{M}\text{}\left(\frac{\eta }{1.0}\right)\left(\frac{\eta _{}}{0.1}\right).$$
(20)
We now wish to convert this into the number density of Pop II.5 stars that could be observable in the MW halo today. First, we have argued that the characteristic mass of Pop II.5 stars is $`10\text{M}\text{}`$, so most of these stars will have died long before the present. We parameterize this in a very simple way by assuming that some fraction, $`f_{\mathrm{imf}}0.1`$ of the mass in stars formed goes into stars with $`M<0.8\text{M}\text{}`$. A second poorly constrained process is where in the MW these stars reside. It is expected that most of the earliest forming stars will be incorporated into the bulge of the MW, with a small fraction in the halo (White & Springel, 2000). We introduce $`f_{\mathrm{halo}}0.1`$ as the fraction of Pop II.5 stars which end up in the halo. Finally we make the reasonable assumption that most of the Pop II.5 stars remaining today are near the end of their lives (i.e. their mass function is increasing to higher masses at $`M<1\text{M}\text{}`$), so we get the number of halo stars by dividing their total mass by $`0.8\text{M}\text{}`$. This gives us the total number of Pop II.5 stars in the MW halo:

$$N_{\mathrm{II}.5}10^{5.5}\text{M}\text{}\left(\frac{\eta }{1.0}\right)\left(\frac{f_{\mathrm{halo}}}{0.1}\right)\left(\frac{f_{\mathrm{imf}}}{0.1}\right).$$
(21)
To relate this to the observed number density of low metallicity halo stars we distribute the Pop II.5 stars in a halo with density profile $`\rho (r)=\rho (r_{})r_{}^3/(r_c^3+r^3)`$, where the solar orbital radius, $`r_{}=8.0\mathrm{kpc}`$ (Reid, 1993), is assumed much larger than the core radius, $`r_c`$, of the halo profile (needed for finite halo mass). This distribution only diverges logarithmically at large radii, so the mass of the halo is quite insensitive to the uncertain cutoff radius and core radius (we take $`r_{\mathrm{cut}}/r_{\mathrm{core}}=300`$ for definiteness). Using this profile, together with the total number of stars from the previous paragraph, the number density of Pop II.5 stars in the solar neighborhood is

$$n_{\mathrm{II}.5}10\mathrm{stars}/\mathrm{kpc}^3\left(\frac{\eta }{1.0}\right)\left(\frac{f_{\mathrm{halo}}}{0.1}\right)\left(\frac{f_{\mathrm{imf}}}{0.1}\right).$$
(22)
We can make a crude comparison of this prediction with the results of observational searches for metal poor halo stars (e.g., Beers et al., 2000). Using their Figure 5, we see that most of their stars are within 2 kpc of the sun, which we take to be the radius of their survey (covering 1940 square degrees of the sky). Also from that figure, they have $`5`$ stars with \[Fe/H\]$`3.5`$, and none with \[Fe/H\]$`4.0`$. If we identify these stars with Pop II.5, this gives them an observed space density of $`n3\mathrm{kpc}^3`$. This is similar to our theoretical estimate above, given the uncertainty associated with some of our parameters.

The observed stars all have a metallicity very close to our critical metallicity, so it is not clear if they are very low metallicity Pop II stars or if they were formed by our Pop II.5 mechanism. We have shown that, with reasonable modeling assumptions, it is possible to produce these stars from primordial gas, and that their metallicity could be due to pollution from Pop III supernovae which triggered their formation (it could also be partly due to pollution from swept up gas as they travel through the galactic disk). Current observational searches are beginning to give us a clearer picture of the number of very low metallicity stars in the galactic halo, and we anticipate that this will continue with future observations. On the theoretical side, numerical simulations can in principle reduce the uncertainties in our Pop II.5 model by determining the values of $`\eta `$, $`f_{\mathrm{halo}}`$, and possibly also of the IMF from the mass spectrum of collapsing clumps, although this is a very challenging problem to simulate accurately.

## 5 Summary and Conclusions

We have investigated the history of star formation in the high redshift universe, focusing on the role played by very massive Pop III stars. We have argued that this history is shaped by the various feedback effects exerted by those stars, resulting in three distinct epochs of star formation.

The first impact Pop III stars have on their surroundings is radiative, as their soft UV flux dissociates the molecular hydrogen in other minihalos (Haiman et al., 1997, 2000). Because of their copious UV emission, and the small molecular fraction ($`10^410^6`$) in minihalos, this photodissociation is likely to happen quickly, and fairly completely. A numerical investigation of this process was performed by Machacek et al. (2001), who simulated this suppression of star formation in low mass halos by incorporating a uniform soft UV background into a cosmological simulation. While this assumption does not allow them to follow the detailed build-up of the UV radiation field as Pop III star formation switches on, it does give a good indication of the overall effect. It was found that the UV radiation can effectively suppress star formation due to molecular cooling in low mass halos, delaying their collapse from redshift $`z30`$ to $`z20`$.

It is encouraging that both analytic and numerical calculations agree quite well. In Figure 2, we find that once a significant UV radiation field has been set up by $`z30`$, further star formation is strongly inhibited until more massive halos start to form, and the SFR does not recover to its $`z30`$ value until $`z20`$. This is all in good agreement with the simulation results, except that Machacek et al. (2001) did find that more massive halos of $`M10^7\text{M}\text{}`$ were able to retain some molecular hydrogen. Hence, these halos were still able to cool via molecular lines, indicating that the SFR should not go all the way down to the atomic cooling curve, but it is likely to drop most of the way. Future simulations will be able to follow this dissociation process in detail, taking into account the effect of self-shielding, with a time-varying radiation field generated by point sources at the sites of Pop III star formation. In summary, the radiative feedback from Pop III stars results in the transition, at $`z30`$, between the first two epochs of star formation at high redshift.

The second impact Pop III stars have on surrounding material is chemical, and we identify this feedback as the main effect governing the transition from forming predominantly very massive stars to forming normal, lower mass ones (e.g., Omukai, 2000; Nishi & Tashiro, 2000; Bromm et al., 2001a; Schneider et al., 2002). With the assumption that VMSs can only form in gas with a metallicity lower than a critical value, $`Z_{\mathrm{crit}}10^{3.5}\text{Z}\text{}`$, we estimate that most of the star-forming material in the IGM has reached this level in the redshift range $`z1520`$, which delineates the second transition in the star formation history, between epochs 2 and 3.

An important issue is whether such a well-defined transition redshift between massive and more normal star formation actually occurs. This depends on how synchronized different parts of the universe are in crossing the critical metallicity threshold, which in turn depends on how well the supernova ejecta are mixed through the IGM at high redshifts. It has been suggested (Madau et al., 2001) that enrichment becomes more synchronized and uniform at higher redshifts. Dark matter halos are of much lower mass and have shallower potential wells, making it easier for metals to escape the halo. Supernovae from VMSs are predicted to be very energetic, with explosion energies significantly larger than the binding energy of halos at $`z20`$ (Barkana & Loeb, 2001). Furthermore, the universe is much denser at high redshift and halos are consequently much closer together, again making it easier to pollute the IGM uniformly with metals. It is also possible, however, that enrichment at high redshifts is similar to that at low redshifts, where it has been shown to be very inhomogeneous and incomplete (e.g., Gnedin, 1998; Cen & Ostriker, 1999; Aguirre et al., 2001a, b). If this were the case, the transition redshift at which the mean mass-weighted metallicity of the universe crosses the critical threshold would not be a very meaningful quantity. Which of these two cases is true is an important and interesting question, and can only be addressed theoretically by more detailed cosmological simulations which can resolve star-forming halos at high redshifts.

The demise of Pop III stars in SN explosions opens up the possibility for a new stellar population which we have termed Population II.5. These stars are characterized by masses, $`M_{}10\text{M}\text{}`$, intermediate to that of Pop III and Pop II stars, and by extremely low metallicities, below the critical value that would normally lead to the formation of VMSs. This possibility relies on the gas in the vicinity of the SN being compressed in a radiative shock, leading to a significant increase in density, and thus possibly to a reduction of the fragment mass, $`M_{\mathrm{BE}}\rho ^{1/2}`$, to values much lower than the one realized in primordial gas. During an intermediate epoch, therefore, low- and high-mass stars might form almost simultaneously. A similar idea had already been proposed in a prescient paper by Cayrel (1986), primarily to explain the so-called G-dwarf problem, i.e., the observed lack of metal-poor stars in our Galaxy (see also Kashlinsky & Rees, 1983; Nakamura & Umemura, 2001).

It is to be expected that the mass range of Pop II.5 stars extends down to $`1\text{M}\text{}`$, and these stars at the low-mass end of the Pop II.5 IMF should still be around today. Intriguingly and possibly providing a case in point, the recent discovery of the extremely metal poor star CS 29498-043 with \[Fe/H\]$`=3.7`$ and a significant overabundance of Mg and Si, has been tentatively interpreted as hinting at a new class of stars (Aoki et al., 2002). Ongoing surveys of extremely metal-poor halo stars, much improved in size and quality, should soon be able to test our prediction further.

Many of the uncertainties in our argument have to be addressed with detailed numerical simulations, and we plan to do so in future work. The framework presented in this paper does provide a coherent context for these numerical studies, and it highlights the important physical questions that define the challenge of elucidating the end of the cosmic “dark ages”.

We are grateful to Andrea Ferrara, Alex Heger, Marc Kamionkowski, Robert Kirshner, Avi Loeb, Thomas Matheson, Mike Santos, Volker Springel, and Jerry Wasserburg for helpful discussions. We thank the anonymous referee for comments that improved the presentation of this paper. This work was supported in part by NSF grants ACI 96-19019, AST 98-02568, AST 99-00877, and AST 00-71019.