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# The Ultra-luminous M81 X-9 source: 20 years variability and spectral states

## 1 INTRODUCTION

M81 is a nearby early type spiral galaxy well studied in all bands, from radio (e.g. Beck, Klein, Krause, 1985; Bietenholz et al., 1996) to optical and UV (e.g. Ho, Filippenko, Sargent, 1996) to X-rays, where it has been observed with all the major satellites. Einstein observations (Fabbiano, 1988) showed the presence of 10 individual X-ray sources in M81, and 3 sources that appear outside the optical contour of the galaxy. Among the latter ones, X-9 is the brightest X-ray source within 20’ from the M81 nucleus, with roughly half the flux of the M81 nucleus itself. If it is at the same distance of M81 (3.6 Mpc, Freedman et al., 1994) the Einstein luminosity of X-9 is $`3\times 10^{39}`$ erg s-1, well above the Eddington luminosity for 1$`M_{}`$ accretor in a binary system ($`1.3\times 10^{38}`$ erg s-1). X-9 appears on many ROSAT observations of the M81/M82 region, and is clearly visible in the ASCA-GIS field of an M81-centered observation (Ishisaki et al., 1996).

X-9 is optically coincident with the H II region MH9/10 (Miller & Hodge, 1994) of the Ho IX dwarf galaxy (Georgiev, 1991; Hill et al., 1993, D=3.4 Mpc,), a member of the M81 group. Miller (1995) points out that the pointlike blue object reported by Fabbiano (1988) within 10” from the X-ray source is indeed MH9/10, and reports an additional faint blue continuum object in the vicinities that he identifies as an OB association. A shock-heated superbubble with a 250 pc diameter was also found in this general area by Miller (1995), who suggested a tentative physical association between X-9 and this extended object. If X-9 is instead a compact X-ray source, its super-Eddington X-ray luminosity rules out spherical accretion onto a white dwarf of neutron star, leaving a black-hole binary as a possible candidate (e.g. Fabbiano, 1995). Another possibility, advanced by Ishisaki et al. (1996) and recently explored by Ezoe et al. (2000), is that X-9 is a background quasar. Figure 1 shows the position of X-9 with respect to M81 and Holmberg IX.

In this paper we present a comprehensive study of the X-ray behaviour of M81 X-9, by using all the available X-ray data, with a coverage extending from 1979 to 1999. Our analysis suggests that while a faint extended source may be indeed present, most of the X-ray emission originates from a highly variable point-like source, with the spectral variability signature of a black hole binary.

In Section 2 of this paper we present the data and their first reduction; in Section 3 we report the results of the data analysis, including spatial structure, variability, spectral analysis. In Sections 4 and 5 we discuss our results and draw our conclusions.

## 2 OBSERVATIONS AND DATA REDUCTION

Table 1 summarizes the log of all the X-ray observations of X-9. X-9 was observed with both Einstein  HRI and IPC (Giacconi et al., 1979) in 1979 (Fabbiano, 1988). It was then observed 23 times with ROSAT in a period of seven years from 1991 to 1998: 12 times with the PSPC (Position Sensitive Proportional Counter, Pfeffermann et al., 1987) and 11 times with the HRI (High Resolution Imager David et al., 1996). It was also observed in 1998 with BeppoSAX (Boella et al., 1997), and in 1999 with ASCA (Tanaka, Inoue & Holt, 1994). We therefore have observations spanning 20 years, with good coverage in the second half of this period. With this data, we can: (1) study the temporal behaviour of X-9 (using all instruments for light curves and fluxes); (2) study its spectral characteristics and how they vary with time, using ROSAT PSPC data, as well as the wider-band higher-resolution BeppoSAX and ASCA spectra; (3) re-examine the spatial properties suggested by Miller (1995), using the coadded good-resolution ($`7\mathrm{"}`$) ROSAT HRI data.

### 2.1 Einstein Data

The Einstein satellite observed M81 and the surrounding region in 1979. Three pointings were made: one with the IPC (Imaging Proportional Counter) in April and two with the HRI (High Resolution Imager) in May and September.

The IPC data cover a spectral energy range spanning from 0.2 to 3.5 keV and have a spatial resolution of $`1^{}`$. The source counts were extracted from a circular region of 180” centered on the centroid position (Fabbiano, 1988) yielding a count rate of $`0.066\pm 0.003`$ count s-1. A low resolution spectrum can be in principle obtained from IPC data, but the source falls in a region of the detector where the spectral calibration is highly uncertain. For this reason we only used these data to derive an estimate of the source flux, using the spectral models suggested by the other available spectral data (see Section 3.3 and Table 4 for details).

The Einstein HRI has a spatial resolution of $`3\mathrm{"}`$, and no spectral resolution. Photons from M81 were collected during two different observing period, then merged in the same file. However, the two relevant pointings are slightly offset. For this reason X-9 is in the HRI field only in the September data. The source counts (that thus refer just to September, as well as the exposure time in Table 1) were extracted from a 18” radius circle centered on the source centroid and the count rate is $`0.12`$ counts s-1. For full details on source counts and background extraction and events corrections we refer to Fabbiano (1988).

### 2.2 ROSAT Data

ROSAT data were processed using the IRAF(v. 2.11)/PROS (v. 2.5) software system (Tody, 1986; Worral et al., 1992). The twelve PSPC observations (see Table 1) were aligned using the nominal pointing directions. The result was then checked by comparing the position on the image array of three bright sources in the field of view. In order to achieve a better signal-to-noise ratio when determining the source position, the eight M81-pointed observations were coadded and the wavelet detection algorithm (Damiani et al, 1997) used in the galpipe pipeline analysis of ROSAT/PSPC data (Mackie et al., 1995) was applied to the coadded image. This algorithm is based on the application of a set of wavelet transforms of the image, evaluated on different radii, and allows the detection of both point-like and extended sources, the determination of source centroid position, and an estimation of its count-rate and size. The remaining four PSPC sequences (2P, 3P, 4P, 9P) were not used in this process because they show X-9 at a large off axis angle, so that the source image is highly degraded. The centroid coordinates were found to be 9h 57m 54s RA and $`69^{}03^{}46\mathrm{"}`$ Dec. The average count rate of the source is $`0.196\pm 0.002`$ cnt s-1, with a total exposure time of 146 ksec. The source radius (3.25’) was chosen to be the point where the radial profile of the source (in 20” bins) become consistent with the value of the field background (extracted from the source-subtracted image, from an annulus centered on the centroid position of the nucleus of M81, with radii 540” and 600”). The same coadded image was used to extract the spectral information (see Section 3.3). In order to conduct the different steps of time analysis, we examined the source emission in each individual observation. The radius for source photon selection depends on the position of X-9 on the detector plane, because of the increase of the radius of the PSF with increasing distance from the detector center (Boese, 2000). For the off-axis observations we used the source radius evaluated with the galpipe processing applied on each observation: 4’ to 5’ where X-9 position is between 20’ and 40’ away from the detector center. We have excluded any part of the selected region obscured by the instrumental PSPC ”ribs”.

The source is also visible in eleven HRI observations pointed on M81, with a total exposure time of 177 ksec and an average count rate of $`(5.31\pm 0.09)\times 10^2`$ cnt s-1. Among these, sequence rh180015n00 (2H in Table 1) has been excluded from the analysis because we were not able to detect any source in the whole field of view with the detection algorithm in the IRAF/PROS task xexamine, probably due to its short exposure time. This made it impossible to align this sequence with the other ones. The remaining observations were aligned by comparing and aligning the position of three bright sources in the field of view. The task xexamine was used to find the source centroid position from the longest live time observation (1H). The X-9 source coordinates are 9h 57m 54.3s RA and $`69^{}03^{}46.4\mathrm{"}`$ Dec, well within the error box associated with the PSPC detection. Thus the two determinations are consistent with each other and from now on we will use the more accurate HRI centroid coordinates. For each observation, source counts were extracted from a circular region with 1.3’ radius, as found with the ldetect IRAF/PROS algorithm (S. Dyson 1999, private communication).

### 2.3 BeppoSAX Data

X-9 is visible in the BeppoSAX observation of M81 performed on June 5th, 1998 (Pellegrini et al., 2000). The observation was processed with the SAXDAS software version 1.6.1 applying the standard corrections and event selections. It includes data from the Low (LECS, Parmar et al, 1997) and the Medium (MECS, Boella et al., 1997) Energy Concentrator System, which are sensitive in the 0.1–10 keV band (0.1–4.5 keV and 1.6–10.0 keV respectively), have an angular resolution of 2’ FWHM and an energy resolution $`\mathrm{\Delta }E/E=0.08`$ (FWHM) at 6 keV. The LECS and MECS exposure times are 23 and 69 ksec, respectively.

We have extracted the LECS spectrum of X-9 from a circular extraction region with radius of 4’, which ensures that we collect at least 80% of the photons of this faint source. The extraction region is centered at 9h57m52.7s RA, +$`69^{}03^{}47\mathrm{"}`$ Dec (J2000). The background was collected from a ring with inner and outer radii of 10.5’ and 13.8’, respectively, centered on the on-axis position, excluding the X-9 source regions defined above. The spectrum was rebinned to have at least 20 counts per energy bin. We have generated the LECS response matrix and ancillary response file using the task lemat in the LHEASOFT Release Version 5.0.1. We have taken peculiar care in the analysis of the MECS data, because of the partial source obscuration by the support ribs. A small 2’ extraction radius was chosen to exclude the ribs, and the MECS2 and MECS3 spectra were extracted separately. We have verified that, even with this small extraction region, the MECS3 spectrum is still severely distorted by the rib obscuration and therefore we have chosen to use only the MECS2 spectrum. We have used the standard MECS response matrix and the ancillary response file for an off-axis source located at 14’ (X-9 is at $`12^{}`$ offaxis) and an extraction radius of 2’, created using the on axis 2’ extraction radius file available from the Sax Data Center and correcting for the energy depndent vignetting effect. MECS background selection and rebinning are similar to those of the LECS.

### 2.4 ASCA Data

ASCA observed X-9 in 1999; all instruments were active. For this analysis, we used the archival event files, with the default screening and event selection criteria, were used. During the observation the GIS detectors (Gas Imaging Spectrometer; Kohmura et al., 1993) were in the PH normal mode. The source counts were extracted from a 6’ circular region around the source centroid and the background was subtracted from a source-free circular region in the same field. The count rates for the two GIS detectors in the (0.5-10.0) keV band are $`0.217\pm 0.003`$ (GIS2) and $`0.270\pm 0.003`$ (GIS3) count s-1, for an integration time of 38 ksec. For the spectral analysis, the most recent publicly released response files were used for each detector. We also estimated the expected contamination from the nucleus of M81 in the extraction region of X-9, by using the calibration image of Cyg X-1 provided by the HEASARC. We estimate that at least 7% of the counts extracted from the X-9 region belongs indeed to the nucleus of M81.

The two SIS (Solid-state Imaging Spectrometer; Burke et al.,, 1991) detectors were observing in 1CCD BRIGHT mode. Chip 1 on SIS0 and chip 3 on SIS1 were active. We extracted the source counts from a 4’ circular region around the source centroid. The contamination due to photons from the nucleus of M81 (which falls outside the chip) is less than 0.02% (Ebisawa 2000, private communication). The background photons were collected from the source-free region of each chip in the same observation. The response matrix and ancillary file were produced with the FTOOLS sisrmg and ascaarf (FTOOLS v3.5), separately for each detector. The two SIS count rates for X-9 are $`0.350\pm 0.004`$ (SIS0) $`0.288\pm 0.003`$ (SIS1) cnt s-1, for an integration time of 33 ksec.

We then compared the SIS and GIS spectra in order to estimate the amount of contamination from the nucleus of M81 to the spectrum of X-9 in the GIS data. The GIS spectrum shows a well detectable soft excess over the SIS spectrum. As the four instruments on board of ASCA observe the target simultaneously, this difference cannot be due to an intrinsic variation of the source emission: the most likely explanation is instead the contamination from the nuclear source. In order to check this hypothesis we extracted the spectrum of the nucleus of M81 from the two GIS fields (the radius of the extraction region is 6’). This spectrum is very well described by a power-law with $`\mathrm{\Gamma }=1.80_{0.01}^{+0.02}`$ ($`\chi ^2/\nu =314/326`$). We used this model to fit the soft excess found in the GIS data when the overall spectrum is modelled with the best fit SIS parameters (see Section 3.3 and Table 4 for details). This excess amounts to $`20\%`$ of the total photon flux, that is twice the expected contamination. As we where not able to fully explain the difference between the observations with the two instruments, we decided to exclude the GIS data set from the following analysis, retaining only the SIS data.

Incidentally, we note that in this observation (1999) the nucleus of M81 appears to be in a different spectral state with respect to that of the 1993 observations, reported by Ishisaki et al. (1996), where a thermal component was needed, in addiction to the power law, to fit the observed spectrum.

## 3 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

### 3.1 Spatial Properties

In order to establish the nature of X-9, it is very important to determine its shape and extension. Our wavelet detection analysis (see Section 2.2) suggests a radius of 3’.25 for this source in the PSPC image, which is larger than the predicted PSF radius for the relevant off axis angle (Boese, 2000) and suggests that X-9 could have an extended component: to check this hypothesis we used the better angular resolution HRI data. The main difficulty in this analysis is that X-9 is 12’.5 off axis, therefore the analytical formula for the bi-dimentional point spread function cannot be used, and alternative methods must be applied. We analysed the data from the HRI sequence 1H (that has the longest live-time) and compared the results to those from the point-like calibration source HZ43, whose data are in the IRAF calibration database. We chose the HZ43 observation at 12’ off axis which has the off axis angle closest to that of X-9. We did not use the coadded file obtained from the ten available observations of X-9, in order to avoid any small misalignement that could possibly affect the coadded image. As a first step, we applied to the 1H data the aspect correction required for data processed before the SASS7-B release111From http://hea-www.harvard.edu/rosat/rsdc\_www/aspfix.html as well as the dewobbling procedure of Harris et al. (1998). We found that this correction does not appreciably affect the data. The source centroid position, determined using the detection algorithm in the IRAF/PROS task xexamine, is 9h 57m 54.3s RA and $`69^{}03^{}46.4\mathrm{"}`$ Dec.

The X-ray contours of the calibration HZ43 image, smoothed with IRAF imsmooth with a 2 pixels Gaussian function, show that the PSF is distorted, with a larger width in the direction of the center of the detector (Figure 2, left panel). The contours from the 1H image, smoothed in the same way, show a similar distorted shape with comparable extension, but due to the smaller S/N ratio, the shape is less well determined (Figure 2, right panel). To compare the radial profile of the two sources, we selected two angular sectors (see Figure 2) centered on the source centroid positions: the internal one is in the direction of the detector center and the external one in the opposite direction. The relevant angles were selected on the calibration image, and then reported on the X-9 image. Counts were then extracted, for each sector, from 60 annuli each 2” wide around the source centroid, for a total radius of 2’. In order to make a direct comparison of the two profiles, both were normalized to the total encircled counts within a 2’ radius. In Figure 3 we plot both the internal and the external profiles for the two sources. In both profiles X-9 appears more extended than HZ43. In particular between 10” and 20” of the external sector there is an evident excess of X-9 with respect to the calibration curve that is well below the error bars. This excess corresponds to about 10% of the total emission, i.e. a luminosity of $`2.5\times 10^{38}`$ for a line of sight galactic $`N_H=4.1\times 10^{20}`$ cm-2, assuming a 1 keV thermal spectrum at the distance of Holmberg IX. This has led us to the conclusion that X-9 is likely to be a composite source, including a point like component (as supported by the time variability analysis, see next Section) and diffuse emission, which may be physically unrelated.

The comparison of the HRI image with the optical one from the POSS II archive confirms the coincidence of the center of the brightest X-ray countour with the faint blue object reported by Fabbiano as the probable optical counterpart of X-9 and identified by Miller (1995) with the H II region MH9/10 (Figure 1). Henkel et al. (1996) estimated the magnitude of this object (that appears extended on a size of 20”) to be $`m_B=20^m.1\pm 0^m.1`$. However, the angular resolution of our data is still insufficient to give strong constraints on the spatial distribution of X-9 and to argue on a physical association between the X-ray emission and the optical object.

### 3.2 Time Variability

We studied the temporal evolution of X-9 using Einstein, ROSAT, SAX and ASCA data. Source and background photons were extracted as explained in Section 2. Our data cover a period of $`20`$ years spanning from April 1979 to April 1999. We searched for short scale variability within each observation with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov and a Cramer-von Mises variability test. We excluded from this analysis the four PSPC off-axis observations, as the position of the source on the detector makes the lightcurve much more affected by the strong background variations caused by the detector wobbling. We report the results in Table 2. In four observations out of twenty two we detected variability with, at least, 90% confidence with both tests. We performed the same tests on the background field in the vicinity of the source, finding that the background emission is variable as well, with a typical time scale of the order of $`10^3`$ sec. This time scale was estimated from the oscillations of the background counts around the curve of uniform distribution hypothesis, and then compared with that of the source (evaluated in the same way). We found that in all cases there is no evident matching between the background and source time scales, and we conclude that the source variability we find is real, and not an artifact due to background variability. To check further the consistency of our results, we performed a different test (Collura et al., 1987) based on $`\chi ^2`$ statistics applied on the background subtracted light curves (created in 200s bins) for each observation. This test also checks for the variability time-scale through a pulse model. We thus consider to be variable only those observations with more than 90% chance of variability and with at least two methods. This includes observations 6P, 7P, 10P, 3H, 11H. From the inspection of the individual lightcurves (Figure 4) there is no striking evidence of either periodic or flare-like variability features. In the observation 7P we observe a source flux steadily increasing.

In order to study long term variability, we compared data from the different instruments using all the available observations. Source counts were extracted from each observation as described in Section 2 after correcting for the appropriate exposure map. Exposure maps for ROSAT/HRI were created using the analysis procedure tools developed by Snowden et al. (1994). For each PSPC observation we calculated the source flux in the (0.5-2.4) keV energy band using the parameters that best fit the PSPC spectra (see Section 3.3 and Table 4 for full details). For ROSAT/HRI and Einstein (IPC and HRI) observations we adopted the model used for PSPC data, correcting for the different count rate and instrumental response. The appropriate best fit models were used for ASCA and SAX. All fluxes were calculated in the (0.5-2.4) keV band. Results are reported in Figure 5, where each data point corresponds to one observation. Here we note that, in spite of being taken with different instruments, HRI and PSPC data are in good agreement, and this is particularly evident in the period that covers April 1992. Moreover SAX data are consistent with the trend shown by the last HRI observations, while the ASCA point shows a much higher flux. The source flux is clearly variable: in Figure 5 there is evidence of variability on time scales of months as well as a descending trend on longer time scale (few years) broken by some flare-like episodes. The data do not show any hint of periodical variability. A flare or a change in the physical status of the source could be responsible for the two high luminosity episodes shown by the two HRI observations 8H and 9H (at $`5.05\times 10^4`$ MJD) and by the ASCA observation.

We also searched for spectral variability in the PSPC data, by evaluating two different hardness ratios, both defined as

$$HR=\frac{hardsoft}{hard+soft}$$
(1)
using for each the energy bands showed in Table 3. We decided to use two different spectral hardness ratios because the first gives a measure of the spectral hardness over the whole PSPC band, while the second allows us to probe the spectral behaviour of the high energy part of the ROSAT/PSPC band. We did not use the data from ASCA, BeppoSAX and Einstein, as the statistics of X-9 allows to obtain only a single point from each observation and we cannot compare points from different instruments. We plot both hardness ratios in Figure 6. We find no significant variability of the hardness ratios, with the only exception of a single point showing a softer spectrum (observation 4P) in the high energy band ratio (HR2).

### 3.3 Spectral Analysis

We have performed model-fitting analysis of PSPC, BeppoSAX and ASCA spectral data of X-9. In order to achieve a good S/N ratio we summed the eight ROSAT-PSPC pointed observations of M81. PSPC Spectra were extracted from a circular region with radius 360”; background is from an annulus centered on the source, with radii 360” and 500” (internal and external respectively), excluding the slice falling on the instrumental rib. Spectral data from the Beppo-SAX and ASCA observations were extracted as explained in Section 2. We have thus obtained different spectra over a total energy range going from 0.5 to 10.0 keV. The analysis was performed using the XSPEC v.10 software tool (Arnaud, George and Tennant, 1992).

We examined several hypotheses to explain the strong X-ray emission of X-9, including the possibility that X-9’s Super-Eddington luminosity is the signature of an accreting black hole (see Fabbiano, 1995). We used the following spectral models to fit the spectra from the different instruments:

* an absorbed power-law (adequate to the hypothesis of a quasar or an X-ray binary);
* a Raymond spectrum with one or two temperatures (that could describe a supershell component);
* a multi-color black body disk (MCBB - adequate to a black hole candidate, as in Makishima et al. (2000).
* different combinations of the above models to check for multiple components.

The fit results are shown in Table 4. The quoted errors for the spectral parameters correspond to the 90% confidence level for 1 interesting parameter. We first analysed separately the different data sets (ROSAT/PSPC, SAX/LECS+MECS, ASCA/SIS). A simple power law gives a good fit for the PSPC and an acceptable fit for the SAX data, but with very different photon indexes ($`2.24\pm 0.24`$ for PSPC and $`1.4`$ for SAX). This could be the signature of either strong spectral variability or the presence of a soft component not immediately recognizable in the SAX data. In particular, the best fit for the MECS data is a power law with with $`\mathrm{\Gamma }=1.40\pm 0.20`$. The same simple model can be used to acceptably fit the composite MECS+LECS spectrum, obtaining $`\mathrm{\Gamma }=1.37\pm 0.18`$. We also checked for the presence of a Fe K$`\alpha `$ line, by adding to the power law model a Gaussian line with fixed energy either at E=$`6.4`$ keV or E=$`6.7`$ keV. The F-test performed after adding the line at E=$`6.4`$ keV (the best choice) indicates that adding this component is not justified if we retain 5% of F-test probability value as the confidence level for significative component addiction.

An alternative model for PSPC data is the MCBB, with a temperature of $`0.60\pm 0.06`$ keV. This model also gives an acceptable fit for ASCA data, with $`T=1.24\pm 0.03`$ keV, but is not adequate to fit the SAX data ($`\chi ^2/\nu =73/45`$).

We also made the assumption that the soft spectrum does not vary in the time span from the set of PSPC observations to the SAX observation, since we see no significant variability in the PSPC hardness ratio, and a rather small flux difference between PSPC and SAX measurements (see Figure 5). With this assumption we made a simultaneous fit of PSPC and MECS data, finding that an excellent fit can be obtained with a power law with $`\mathrm{\Gamma }=1.32_{0.38}^{+0.22}`$ plus a disk component (i.e. an MCBB), with $`T=0.29_{0.11}^{+0.16}`$ keV. The same model was then used to fit LECS+MECS and ASCA/SIS data. For LECS+MECS data we find a marginal improvement (F-test probability of 4%) of the fit probability related to the reduced $`\chi ^2`$, with respect to the simple power law model, and a set of fit parameters in very good agreement with those found for PSPC+MECS. For ASCA/SIS data the spectrum appears dramatically different: a much higher temperature for the disk component (T=$`1.24\pm 0.03`$ keV) is needed than for the other data sets, and there is no evidence for the presence of a power law component.

The Raymond-Smith model (marked with 4 in Table 4), gives a good fit only to the SAX data, but with a very high kT (basically confirming the hard power law), incompatible with the soft emission that may be expected from a superbubble (e.g. Wang & Helfand, 1986; Wang & Chu, 1999). Moreover, if we consider the results obtained with this model for the observations made with the other instruments, we find strong variations both in the temperature and in the emission measure. The latter is given as the model normalization (multiplied by a factor containing the distance), and we find that the three normalizations relevant to each instrument are not compatible with each other. The same happens for the temperature where the one found with SAX is at least one order of magnitude higher than that found with the two other data sets. As we do not expect such a high spectral variability in a few years period from a SNR, we can confidently reject this model as inadequate to account coherently for all the spectra we observe.

Concluding, the most plausible scenario for the spectral behaviour of X-9 is that of a composite power-law + MCBB, where the MCBB temperature and emission measure increase with increasing source luminosity.

## 4 DISCUSSION

Although $`10\%`$ of the emission observed in the ROSAT HRI could be extended, the temporal and spectral characteristics of X-9 strongly suggest that most of the emission is due to a compact object. The strong variability (up to a factor of $`4`$ in a monthly timescale) observed in the X-9 light curve (Figure 5) excludes the hypothesis of Supernova emission and points to a compact X-ray source. From the analysis of the spectral data sets, we see that this flux variation is correlated with a spectral variation.

The spectral behaviour of X-9 let us conclude that this source is not a far-away background QSO (as suggested by Ezoe et al. (2000), who analyzed a set of ASCA/GIS data pointed on M81), but rather an ultra-luminous binary in Ho IX. The best fit temperature from the ASCA spectrum ($`T1.2`$ keV) is well in excess of the typical values we would expect from AGNs (T$`0.1`$ keV for M$`>10^6M`$; Piro, Matt, Ricci, 1997). Moreover, the BeppoSAX low state spectrum (Figure 7) shows a very hard power law ($`\mathrm{\Gamma }1.3`$), by far harder than the $`\mathrm{\Gamma }1.7÷2.0`$ power law seen in AGN spectra Reynolds (1997).

The spectral characteristics instead resemble those seen in some time-variable X-ray binaries (see e.g. Tanaka & Lewin, 1995) and in particular are in very good agreement with those found for ultra-luminous sources in spiral galaxies by Makishima et al. (2000). Under this hypothesis we are observing a ”low” luminosity state with SAX and ROSAT ($`L_{(0.52.4)}3\times 10^{39}`$), and a more luminous ”high” state with ASCA ($`L_{(0.52.4)}=7.6\times 10^{39}`$ ergs s-1). According to the model described by Esin, Mc Clintock and Narayan (1997), the high state spectrum is dominated by a very hot disk, while in the low state the disk is either much colder or not visible at all. We have marginal evidence of its presence in the LECS+MECS spectrum, while the PSPC data clearly show a softer component that cannot be modelled with the simple power law used for the SAX data. As explained in Section 3.3, we can reasonably assume that the spectrum does not change much between PSPC and SAX observations, and make a simultaneous fit of the two data sets. The best fit is then a power law plus an MCBB component, whose temperature is $`1/3`$ of that found for ASCA data. This result suggests that some change in the structure of the emission region may have caused the observed change in the spectra.

The spectrum appears to be absorbed: the values of the $`N_H`$ are compatible for all spectra (ASCA, SAX and PSPC) and the mean value (weighted mean) is $`0.18\pm 0.02\times 10^{22}cm^2`$, that is $`4`$ times the Galactic line of sight value. This excess could be due to the presence of a diffuse medium in the region surrounding the source, as suggested by the HRI image (see Section 3.1) and by the optical images (Miller & Hodge, 1994) that show the presence of a H II region corresponding to the position of X-9.

### 4.1 The ”High State”

The ”high” state is crucial to derive some physical parameters of the system. In the hypothesis of an accreting black hole in the outer region of Holmberg IX, X-9 would be at a distance of 3.4 Mpc (from Georgiev, 1991, the distance modulus of Holmberg IX is 27.67 and the extinction is negligible)). In the ASCA data there is no evidence of a power-law continuum over the disk spectrum; this is consistent with the hypothesis that during the ASCA observation the disk was very close to the last stable orbit, and that its luminosity in the ASCA energy band was very high with respect to the reprocessed power-law continuum. We can then infer the inner radius directly from the normalization of the model as implemented in XSPEC. We find that, for a distance D = 3.4 Mpc, the inner radius is $`183\pm 9`$ km, assuming a face-on geometry (otherwise this number scales as $`(\mathrm{cos}\theta )^{1/2}`$, where $`\theta `$ is the inclination angle of the disk). For a Schwarzschild black hole the mass is related to the inner radius as:

$$R_{in}=\frac{6GM}{c^2}=8.86\frac{M}{M}km$$
(2)
that leads to a mass of $`21\pm 1M`$. The bolometric luminosity can be evaluated from the relation between maximum disk color temperature and inner radius, as in Makishima et al. (2000):

$$L_{bol}=4\pi (R_{in}/\xi )^2\sigma (T_{in}\kappa )^4$$
(3)
where $`\sigma `$ is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant, $`\kappa 1.7`$ is the ratio of the color temperature to the effective temperature (”spectral hardening factor”, e.g. Shimura & Takahara, 1995) and $`\xi =0.412`$ (Kubota et al., 1998) accounts for the fact that $`T_{in}`$ occurs at a radius somewhat larger that $`R_{in}`$. The above expression evaluated for the ASCA spectral parameters gives $`L_{bol}=8.1\times 10^{39}`$; this is a factor of $`3`$ in excess of the Eddington luminosity limit for a $`21\pm 1M`$ black hole that is

$$L_{Edd}\frac{4\pi GMm_pc}{\sigma _T}=1.3\times 10^{38}\frac{M}{M}=2.7\pm 0.1\times 10^{39}ergss^1M^1$$
(4)
where $`M`$ is the mass of the accretor, $`m_p`$ is the mass of the proton, $`\sigma _T`$ is the Thomson cross section. Even assuming an accretion efficiency $`\eta 1`$ we would need a black hole mass of at least $`54M`$ for the observed $`L_{bol}`$ to be compatible with the Eddington limit (where $`L_{bol}=\eta L_{Edd}`$). We then find the same inconsistency, in the derived physical parameter of the source reported by Mizuno et al. (1999) for two ultra-luminous sources in NGC 4565 and summarized by Makishima et al. (2000) for a larger sample of objects. Makishima et al. (2000) examine a number of possible solutions, and suggest that if these objects are rapidly spinning black holes, the high temperature can be explained by the accretion disk getting closer to the black hole, and thus hotter.

As we do not have independent estimates of the distance of X-9, we discuss here the possibility that the distance is somehow overestimated. If X-9 is closer than 3.4 Mpc, we could explain the apparent inconsistency between the mass evaluated from the MCBB spectral parameters and that required assuming the Eddington limit. In fact this quantities scales as:

$$M_{Edd}D^2M_XR_{in}D$$
(5)
so that the ratio of these two mass estimates is proportional to the distance. In order to make the two mass estimates agree, we should have overestimated the distance of X-9 by a factor of at least 2.6 (assuming $`\eta =1`$); this correction would give a distance of $`1.3`$ Mpc, and a new estimated accreting mass of $`8M`$, with a luminosity of $`1.0\times 10^{38}`$ ergs s-1. However, if we make this scenario even more realistic, we should take $`\eta 0.06`$, that is the typical value assumed for Schwarzschild black hole efficiency. In this case we would get D=145 kpc, M=$`0.88M`$, i.e. not a black hole anymore, but a white dwarf. However, this results has severe drawbacks: the location of the source would be in the intergalactic space between the Milky Way and M81, a rather unusual location for an otherwise tipically galactic source, and the spectrum we would expect from a source of this kind should be much softer than the one we actually observe, with a temperature of the order of $`10^2`$ keV (see e.g. Kahabka, 1998).

We can also exclude the possibility suggested by Stocke et al. (1994), from the study of MS 0317.7-6647, located in the vicinity of NGC1313. The authors suggest that this source could be inside our Galaxy, at the distance of $`150`$ pc, being an old isolated neutron star which is no longer rotating or pulsing, but is still emitting X-rays by slow accretion of interstellar gas onto its magnetic poles from the thick surrounding interstellar matter. If this were the case of X-9 too, the luminosity would be of the order of $`10^{31}`$. However, if the spectrum observed with ROSAT is in the temperature range predicted for this kind of sources (Colpi, Campana and Treves, 1993), the ASCA spectrum is much too hard. Moreover, the presence of the power law detected with SAX/MECS cannot be justified by this model, and the same holds for the spectral variability we observe between SAX and ASCA observations.

If we retain the location of the source to be in Holmberg IX (i.e. at a distance of 3.4 Mpc), we can follow the argumentation put forward by Makishima et al. (2000), who make the hypothesis that the accreting object is a Kerr black hole. In this case the disk can come closer to the central mass, and the last stable orbit can go down to 0.5 Schwarzschild radii, implying that the temperature can get higher, even if we neglect any strong relativistic effects. To apply this simple correction to our results, we remind that the last stable orbit radius of a rotating black hole is related to the mass as

$$R_{in}=\alpha \frac{6GM}{c^2}=8.86\alpha \frac{M}{M}km$$
(6)
where $`1/6<\alpha <1`$. In the extreme case of $`\alpha =1/6`$, corresponding to a maximally rotating black hole, we get $`M=126M`$. This mass implies $`L_{Edd}=1.9\times 10^{40}`$, that agrees well with the measured bolometric luminosity $`L_{bol}`$, if we assume a radiation efficiency of $`\eta 0.4`$ ($`L_{bol}=\eta L_{Edd}`$), as can be reached by a maximally rotating black hole, fed with a prograde disk (see, e.g, Shakura & Sunyaev, 1973).

Therefore, while the model of a non-rotating black hole leads to severe drawbacks, the hypothesis of a rotating black hole, along the line suggested by Makishima et al. (2000), may give a more self-consistent scenario, leading to a $`126M`$ black hole. It is worth noting that the existence of black holes of this mass is still quite controversial, being much smaller than galactic nuclear black holes ($`10^710^8M`$) and much larger than stellar sizes black holes ($`10M`$), thus suggesting new interesting scenarios to massive black holes formation. Madau & Rees (2000) suggested that such objects, with masses $`150M`$ can be the end product of pre-galactic star formation episodes: their progenitors would be zero-metallicity (Population III) very massive stars. The high mass limit would be relaxed to smaller values if X-9 is a beamed source. Beaming in ultra-luminous galactic sources has recently been advanced as an alternative scenario to the very massive black hole hypothesis (King et al., 2001)

### 4.2 The ”Low” State

The nearly constant PSPC hardness ratios and the good agreement between PSPC and LECS spectra suggest that no significant spectral changes have occured in the soft X-ray emission from X-9 during the ”low state” observations. The PSPC and SAX(MECS+LECS) spectra can be well described with a MCBB model with temperature T$`0.28`$ keV plus a power-law with photon index $`\mathrm{\Gamma }1.35`$.

The observed spectral features resemble those observed in the low state of galactic black hole candidate, such as the well studied Cyg X-1 (see, e.g. Gierlinski et al., 1999; Frontera et al., 2000), Nova Muscae (Esin, Mc Clintock and Narayan, 1997), or Sgr A (Narayan, Yi, Mahadevan, 1996). These sources are observed to spend most of their time in a low intensity state, characterized by a power law continuum and, for high enough accretion rates, a soft thermal component arising from the accretion disk. In most cases there is also evidence of fluorescent emission from Fe, with the detection of a line at 6.4 keV. These features are interpreted in the framework of the ADAF (Advection Dominated Accretion Flow, see, e.g, Esin, Mc Clintock and Narayan, 1997) model as the signature of a geometry where the disk is truncated far from the last stable orbit, and in the region between the disk and the compact object (the ADAF region) a substantial part of the energy is stored in the accreting gas rather than being radiated. When the accretion rate grows over a critical value, the ADAF disappears and the disk approaches the last stable orbit. In this high state the emission is dominated by the disk thermal spectrum, in a way similar to what we observe in the ASCA spectrum of this source.

However the power law index predicted by the ADAF model (and observed in the sources above – $`\mathrm{\Gamma }1.5`$) for the low state is larger than the index we measure in our data, suggesting that this model may not be entirely adequate to describe our source. A behaviour closer to that of X-9 was observed with ASCA in 1E 1740.7-2942, a bright source near to the Galactic center (Sakano et al., 1999; Sidoli et al., 1999). The broad band spectrum of this source strongly suggests that it is indeed a stellar mass black hole. Sakano et al. (1999) find that the 2.0-10.0 keV spectrum can be described with a power law of photon index $`\mathrm{\Gamma }`$ in the range 0.9-1.3. They do not find any evidence of thermal component, but this could be due to the harder energy band they use in their analysis (2.0-10.0 keV vs. 0.2-10.0 keV of our data). This source, indeed, shows no evidence for a line at 6.4 keV.

In summary, the low state spectrum of X-9 resembles closely the spectra of other black hole candidates in their low state, with the only difference of a slightly flatter power law index.

## 5 CONCLUSIONS

We have analysed all the available X-ray observations of the M81 region in order to understand the nature of the ultra-luminous X-ray source M81 X-9. Our results can be summarized as follows:

1. The X-ray source is a point-like object, possibly surrounded by a faint diffuse medium, that could account for about 10% of the total emission. This result needs a more accurate verification, that can only come from observations with high resolution X-ray cameras, like those on board of the Chandra Observatory. The optical counterpart appears to be a faint blue object, embedded in an H$`\alpha `$ cloud. The nature of this object is still unclear, and optical observations are also needed to clarify this point.
2. The flux of X-9 is strongly variable and this variability points to a compact object. This source was observed over twenty years with Einstein, ROSAT, ASCA and BeppoSAX, with almost countinous coverage during the last eight years. The light curves show non periodic flux variations of up to a factor of 4.
3. The ROSAT/PSPC and SAX data were all collected during low intensity states ($`L_X4\times 10^{39}`$ erg s-1) and have consistent spectral distributions, while the high state ASCA spectrum ($`L_X8\times 10^{39}`$ erg s-1) is significantly different. The observed spectrum can be well fit with a MCBB model with $`T1.24`$ keV for the high state ASCA data and with a colder ($`T0.3`$keV) MCBB plus a flat ($`\mathrm{\Gamma }1.3`$) power-law for the PSPC and SAX data.
4. The intensity and spectral variability of X-9 supports the scenario of an accreting black hole binary. From the ASCA best fit parameters we infer a Kerr black hole mass of $`126M`$, if at the distance of 3.4 Mpc and assuming non-beamed X-ray emission.

We thank Andreas Zezas for discussions on ultra-luminous sources in galaxies, Sam Dyson for help in the initial ROSAT data reduction, Rosario Iaria for discussions on accretion processes. This work was supported in part by NASA grant NAG5-2946 and NASA contract NAS8-39073(CXC) and in part by MURST. This research has made use of the HEASARC online database and of the ESO online DSS.


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# Detection of Accelerator-Produced Neutrinos at a Distance of 250 km

## Abstract

The KEK to Kamioka long-baseline neutrino experiment (K2K) has begun its investigation of neutrino oscillations suggested by atmospheric neutrino observations. Twenty-eight neutrino events have been detected in coincidence with the expected arrival time of the beam in the 22.5 kt fiducial volume of Super–Kamiokande, the far detector at 250 km distance. The expectation is $`37.8_{3.8}^{+3.5}`$, derived using measurements of neutrino interactions in a near detector and extrapolation using a beam simulation validated by a measurement of pion kinematics after production and focusing. The background is of order $`10^3`$ events.

The Standard Model of electroweak interactions has been tested with exceptional precision. The model, however, does not address the question of the origin of generations and their mixing. The existence of neutrino oscillations implies that neutrinos are massive and that lepton flavors are not conserved quantum numbers. It enables us to study relations between mass and flavor eigenstates in the lepton sector. Experiments on atmospheric neutrinos have found a significant deficit in the flux of $`\nu _\mu `$ which have travelled an earth scale distance. The interpretation of these results provides not only strong evidence of $`\nu _\mu \nu _\tau `$ (or $`\nu _\mu \nu _{\mathrm{s}terile}`$) oscillations but also evidence for different mixing properties in the lepton and quark sectors. For a neutrino energy $`E_\nu (\mathrm{GeV})`$ and a distance from the source $`L(\mathrm{km})`$, the oscillation probability can be written in terms of the mixing angle $`\theta `$ and the difference of the squared masses $`\mathrm{\Delta }m^2`$ (eV2) in two flavor approximation as  $`P(\nu _\mu \nu _x)=\mathrm{sin}^22\theta \mathrm{sin}^2(1.27\mathrm{\Delta }m^2L/E_\nu )`$.

The KEK to Kamioka long-baseline neutrino experiment (K2K) is the first accelerator-based experiment with hundreds of km neutrino path length. The intense, nearly pure neutrino beam (98.2% $`\nu _\mu `$, 1.3% $`\nu _e`$, and 0.5% $`\overline{\nu }_\mu `$) has an average $`L/E_\nu 200(L=250\mathrm{k}\mathrm{m},E_\nu 1.3\mathrm{GeV})`$. The neutrino beam properties are measured just after production, and the kinematics of parent pions are measured in situ to extrapolate the measurements at the near detector to the expectation at the far detector. K2K focuses on the study of the existence of neutrino oscillations in $`\nu _\mu `$ disappearance that is observed in atmospheric neutrinos, and on the search for $`\nu _\mu \nu _e`$ oscillation with well understood flux and neutrino composition in the $`\mathrm{\Delta }m^22\times 10^3\mathrm{eV}^2`$ region. In this letter, the first results on the event rates with 100 days of data taken from June 1999 to June 2000 corresponding to $`2.29\times 10^{19}`$ protons on target, and the performance of the critical components of the long-baseline neutrino experiment are described.

The K2K neutrino beam is a horn-focused wide band $`\nu _\mu `$ beam. The primary beam for K2K is 12 GeV kinetic energy protons from the KEK proton-synchrotron (KEK-PS). Every 2.2 s, approximately $`6\times 10^{12}`$ protons in nine bunches are fast-extracted in a single turn, making a 1.1 $`\mu \mathrm{s}`$ beam spill. These protons are focused onto a 30 mm diameter, 66 cm long aluminum target which is a current carrying element in the first of a pair of horn magnets operating at 250 kA. This design maximizes the efficiency of the toroidal magnetic field to focus positive pions produced in proton-aluminum interactions, while sweeping out negative secondary particles.

Downstream of the horn system, before the 200 m long decay volume where the pions decay to $`\nu _\mu `$ and muons, a gas-Cherenkov detector (PIMON) is occasionally put in the beam to measure the kinematics of the pions after their production and subsequent focusing. After the decay volume, an iron and concrete beam dump stops essentially all charged particles except muons with an energy greater than 5.5 GeV. Downstream of the dump there is a “muon monitor” (MUMON) consisting of a segmented ionization chamber and an array of silicon pad detectors. This monitors the residual muons spill-by-spill to check beam centering and muon yield. The ionization chamber consists of 5 cm wide strips covering roughly $`2\times 2\mathrm{m}^2`$ area with separate planes for horizontal and vertical read-out. The 26 silicon pads, each of $`10\mathrm{c}\mathrm{m}^2`$ transverse area, are distributed through a $`3\times 3\mathrm{m}^2`$ area.

Neutrino interactions near the production site are measured by a set of detectors with complementary abilities. The detectors are located approximately 300 m from the pion production target with approximately 70 m of earth eliminating virtually all prompt beam products other than neutrinos. A one kiloton water Cherenkov detector (1kt) uses the same technology and analysis algorithms as the far detector, Super–Kamiokande (SK). It has 680 20” photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) on a 70 cm grid lining a $`8.6\mathrm{m}`$ diameter, $`8.6\mathrm{m}`$ high cylinder. The PMTs themselves and their arrangement are the same as in SK, giving the same fractional coverage by photo-cathode (40%). A scintillating fiber detector (SciFi) with a 6 ton water target has tracking capability, and allows discrimination between different types of interactions such as quasi-elastic or inelastic. Downstream of the SciFi there is a lead glass array for tagging electromagnetic showers. A muon range detector (MRD), measures the energy, angle, and production point of muons from charged current (CC) $`\nu _\mu `$ interactions. It covers $`7.6\times 7.6\mathrm{m}^2`$ transverse area with four 10-cm iron plates, followed by eight 20-cm iron plates, all interleaved with drift tubes. The total mass is 915 tons. The 6632 drift tubes each has $`5\times 7\mathrm{c}\mathrm{m}^2`$ cross section, and are arranged in horizontal and vertical read-out planes.

The far detector for K2K is the SK detector located in the Kamioka Observatory, Institute for Cosmic Ray Research (ICRR), University of Tokyo, which has been taking data since 1996. Its performance and results have been documented in the literature. Event selection for this detector uses timing synchronization with the KEK-PS via the Global Positioning System (GPS).

The beam-line was aligned by GPS position survey. The precision of this survey for the line from the target to the far detector is better than 0.01 mr and the construction precision for the near site alignment is better than 0.1 mr. The predicted neutrino spectrum at 250 km is approximately the same over nearly 1 km, giving a required accuracy of $`3\mathrm{m}\mathrm{r}`$ for the pointing of the beam.

The steering and the monitoring of the $`\nu _\mu `$ beam are carried out based on the MUMON measurement. The $`\nu _\mu `$ and muons in the decay volume originate from the same pion decays, so the measured center position of the muon profile is correlated with the $`\nu _\mu `$ beam direction. The r.m.s. muon profile width is $`90\mathrm{c}\mathrm{m}`$ for both the horizontal and vertical directions. These measurements are used in tuning the beam direction at the start of every beam period, usually once per month. Since there is a magnetic field in and around the target, the direction of the secondary pions, which determines the direction of decay $`\nu _\mu `$ and muons, is sensitive to the position of the primary proton beam at the target. A 1 mm displacement of protons at the target face causes roughly 0.5 mr deflection to the opposite direction for muons observed by the MUMON. During beam tuning, the primary proton position at the target is adjusted so that the muon profile is centered on the SK direction within 0.1 mr. The center of the muon profile is measured to be stable spill-by-spill within $`\pm 1\mathrm{m}\mathrm{r}`$ in each dimension throughout the whole experimental period. The stability of the muon yield is directly related to the stability of the horn-focused $`\nu _\mu `$ beam. The yield normalized to proton intensity measured by a current transformer is stable spill-by-spill within a measurement uncertainty of $`2\%`$.

The characteristics and stability of the $`\nu _\mu `$ beam itself are directly monitored at the near site by the MRD using $`\nu _\mu `$ interactions with iron. The large transverse area of MRD makes it possible to measure the beam direction and width (profile), and the large mass makes it possible to measure the time stability of the $`\nu _\mu `$ event rate, profile and spectrum. The location of the center of the profile gives the beam direction. For the profile measurement, the starting point of a reconstructed muon track is regarded as the vertex of the $`\nu _\mu `$-iron interaction. The data reduction for the profile measurement requires: a) Only tracks around the time of the beam spill are accepted. b) Tracks with a common vertex are taken as a single event with the longest track assumed to be a muon. c) Muons entering or exiting the detector are rejected. d) Any muons with reconstructed energy lower than 0.5 GeV or higher than 2.5 GeV are rejected in order to avoid regions of small acceptance. The vertex distribution is corrected for geometrical acceptance to obtain the beam profile. As shown in Fig. 1(a), the horizontal profile is well centered on the SK direction. The profile width is well reproduced by the beam simulation which is described below. The profile center is plotted as a function of time in Fig. 1(b). The $`\nu _\mu `$ direction has been stable within $`\pm 1`$ mr throughout all data-taking periods. The vertical profile is also well centered on the SK direction and stable. For the event rate and kinematic distribution analyses no energy cut is made, but only events with vertices inside the fiducial volume defined by a cylinder of $`3\mathrm{m}`$ radius in the upstream 9 iron plates are accepted. The measured rate of $`\nu _\mu `$-iron events is typically 0.05 events/spill and can be monitored on a daily basis with good statistics. The event rate normalized to proton intensity is stable within the statistical error of the MRD measurement. The muon energy and angular distributions are also continuously monitored. They show no change as a function of time, implying the $`\nu _\mu `$ energy spectrum is stable throughout this period.

Comparison between expected and observed numbers of $`\nu _\mu `$ events at the far site is done with this knowledge of measured beam stability. To predict the $`\nu _\mu `$ beam characteristics at the far site, a normalization measurement at the near site and the extrapolation of the information from near to far are necessary. For the rate normalization, the 1kt is used so that any detector or analysis bias is suppressed. For the extrapolation, the beam simulation is used, which is validated by the PIMON measurement as described below. This simulation is based on GEANT with detailed description of materials and magnetic fields in the target region and decay volume. It uses as input a measurement of the primary beam profile at the target. Primary proton interactions on aluminum are modeled with a parameterization of hadron production data. Other hadronic interactions are treated by GEANT-CALOR.

Once the kinematic distribution of pions after production and focusing is known, it is possible to predict the $`\nu _\mu `$ spectrum at any distance from the source. The pion momentum and angular distribution is measured by the PIMON. Cherenkov photons generated by pions in the detector are focused by a pie-shaped spherical mirror to an array of PMTs of 8 mm effective diameter in its focal plane. Photons emitted by particles with the same velocity and incident angle with respect to the mirror arrive at the same position in the focal plane. This is independent of photon incident position with respect to the mirror. The photon distribution on the PMT array is a superposition of slices of the Cherenkov rings from particles of various velocities and angles. Measurements are made at seven indices of refraction, controlled by gas pressure, to give additional information on the velocity distribution of the particles. The indices of refraction are chosen so that the corresponding pion momentum interval is 400 MeV/c. The pion two-dimensional distribution of momentum versus angle is derived by unfolding the photon distribution data with various indices of refraction. The binning of extracted pion momentum and angular distributions are 1 GeV/c and 10 mr, respectively. To avoid background from 12 GeV primary protons, the index of refraction is adjusted below the Cherenkov threshold of 12 GeV protons $`(1\beta 2.6\times 10^3)`$. As a consequence, analysis is done for $`\mathrm{P}_\pi 2\mathrm{G}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{V}/\mathrm{c}`$, giving the $`\nu _\mu `$ energy spectral shape above 1 GeV. Figure 2 shows the inferred $`\nu _\mu `$ energy spectral shape at the near site and the far to near $`\nu _\mu `$ flux ratio along with the beam simulation result. The beam simulation is well validated by the PIMON measurement without any tuning.

The $`\nu _\mu `$ interaction rate at the near site is measured in the 1kt by detecting Cherenkov light emitted from produced charged particles. The vertices and directions of Cherenkov rings are reconstructed with the same methods as in SK. In the 1kt, however, an analog sum of signals from all PMTs is recorded by an FADC to select beam spills with only one event. The definition of events per spill is the number of peaks of the FADC signal with $`>1000`$ collected photo-electrons (p.e.) ($`100\mathrm{M}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{V}`$ deposited energy). The average number of events observed in the full detector is about 0.2/spill including entering background events due to cosmic rays or $`\nu _\mu `$ induced muons from upstream (about 1.5% of events in the fiducial volume defined below). Thus $`2`$ events occur in about 10% of those spills with $`1`$ event. Neutrino interactions are selected by requiring: a) There is no detector activity in the $`1.2\mu \mathrm{s}`$ preceding the beam spill. b) Only a single event is observed in the FADC peak search for that spill. c) The reconstructed vertex is inside the 25 t fiducial volume defined by a 2 m radius, 2 m long cylinder along the beam axis, in the upstream side of the detector. The detection efficiency of the 1kt detector for detecting CC interactions is 87% and for neutral current inelastic ($`\mathrm{NC}_{\mathrm{inel}}`$) interactions it is 55%. The expected ratio of CC to $`\mathrm{NC}_{\mathrm{inel}}`$ gives an overall efficiency of 72%. The main source of inefficiency is the 1000 p.e. threshold of the peak search in the FADC signal. The neutrino interaction simulator used for efficiency calculations is the same as that used in all SK analyses. Finally the number of $`\nu _\mu `$ events in 1kt is corrected for spills with multiple events. The average $`\nu _\mu `$ event rate per proton hitting the target is $`3.2\times 10^{15}`$. Correcting for efficiencies, relative target masses, and detector live times, the expected $`\nu _\mu `$ signal at the far site is estimated by applying the extrapolation from the experimentally validated beam simulation.

Accelerator-produced neutrino interactions at the far site, SK, are selected by comparing two Universal Time Coordinated (UTC) time stamps from the GPS system, $`T_{\mathrm{KEK}}`$ for the KEK-PS beam spill start time and $`T_{\mathrm{S}K}`$ for the SK trigger time. The time difference between two UTC time stamps, $`\mathrm{\Delta }(T)T_{\mathrm{SK}}T_{\mathrm{KEK}}TOF`$ where $`TOF`$ is the time of flight of a neutrino, should be distributed around the interval from $`0\mathrm{to}1.1\mu s`$ to match the width of the beam spill of the KEK-PS. Since the measured uncertainty of the synchronization accuracy for the two sites is $`<200\mathrm{n}\mathrm{s},`$ beam-induced events are selected in a $`1.5\mu \mathrm{s}`$ window. Data reduction similar to that used in atmospheric neutrino analyses at SK is applied to select fully contained (FC) neutrino interactions. The criteria are: a) There is no detector activity within 30 $`\mu `$s before the event. b) The total collected p.e. in a 300 ns time window is $`>200`$ ($`20\mathrm{M}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{V}`$ deposited energy). c) The number of PMTs in the largest hit cluster in the outer-detector is $`<10`$. d) The deposited energy is $`>30`$ MeV. Finally, a fiducial cut is applied accepting only events with fitted vertices inside the same $`22.5\mathrm{kt}`$ volume used for SK atmospheric neutrino analysis. The detection efficiency of SK is 93% for CC interactions and 68% for $`\mathrm{NC}_{\mathrm{inel}}`$ interactions, for a total of 79%. Similarly to the 1kt, the inefficiency is mainly due to the energy cut. Figure 3 shows the $`\mathrm{\Delta }(T)`$ distribution at various stages of the reduction. A clear peak in time with the neutrino beam from the KEK-PS is observed in the analysis time window. Twenty-eight FC events are observed in the fiducial volume. The arrival rate of neutrinos observed by the far detector is consistent with constant within statistical fluctuation. The $`1.5\mu \mathrm{s}`$ selection window gives an expected background from atmospheric neutrino interactions of order $`10^3`$ events.

The systematic uncertainty of the 1kt measurement is 5%, for which the leading terms are due to vertex fitting and its effect on the fiducial cut (4%), and the treatment of multiple events in a spill (3%). Other sources such as energy scale uncertainty are relatively small. The statistical uncertainty of the 1kt measurement is $`<1\%`$. The systematic uncertainty of the extrapolation from the near site measurement is estimated to be $`{}_{7}{}^{+6}\%`$ based on the PIMON measurement uncertainty and beam simulation uncertainty for low energy neutrinos. The systematic uncertainty in the SK measurement is $`3\%`$, mainly due to the fiducial cut. The systematic uncertainty term coming from uncertainty in the neutrino energy spectrum and cross section is small due to cancellations. The quadrature sum of all known uncertainties for the far site event rate prediction is $`{}_{10}{}^{+9}\%.`$ The resulting expectation is $`37.8_{3.8}^{+3.5}`$ events in the absence of neutrino oscillations. The observed and expected numbers for various categories are summarized in Table I. The number of Cherenkov rings and particle identification are reconstructed by the same algorithms as those used at SK, and the event category definitions are also the same. The expected number of events for analyses of CC interactions in the other near detectors are $`41.0_{6.6}^{+6.0}`$ for MRD (iron target) and $`37.2_{5.0}^{+4.6}`$ for SciFi (water target), each of which is consistent with the value based on 1kt analysis.

The crucial principles of K2K have been proven to work: The beam direction has been continuously monitored and controlled within $`\pm 1\mathrm{m}\mathrm{r}`$ for several months duration by controlling the proton position on target with millimeter accuracy and operating the horn magnet stably. Pion kinematics have successfully been measured in situ allowing prediction of the neutrino beam at the distance of 250 km with six to seven percent accuracy. Events at the far site have been identified by means of GPS timing, reducing backgrounds to a negligible level. Twenty-eight FC neutrino events have been observed where $`37.8_{3.8}^{+3.5}`$ are expected. The experiment expects to accumulate $`10^{20}`$ protons on target, providing sufficient statistics to study neutrino oscillations by spectral analysis for $`\nu _\mu `$ disappearance.

We thank the KEK and ICRR Directorates for their strong support and encouragement. K2K is made possible by the inventiveness and the diligent efforts of the KEK-PS machine group. We gratefully acknowledge the cooperation of the Kamioka Mining and Smelting Company. This work has been supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan and its grants for Scientific Research, the Japan Society for Promotion of Science, the U.S. Department of Energy, the Korea Research Foundation, and the Korea Science and Engineering Foundation.