text:
# Lower Bounds for the Total Stopping Time of 3𝑋+1 Iterates

## 1. Introduction

The $`3x+1`$ problem concerns the behavior under iteration of the $`3x+1`$ function $`T:𝐙𝐙`$ given by

(1)
$$T(n)=\{\begin{array}{cc}\frac{n}{2}\hfill & \text{if }n0(mod2)\hfill \\ \frac{3n+1}{2}\hfill & \text{if }n1(mod2)\hfill \end{array}$$

The notorious $`3x+1`$ Conjecture asserts that for each $`n1`$, some iterate $`T^{(k)}(n)=1`$. It has been verified for all $`n<2.702\times 10^{16}`$ by Oliveira e Silva , whose subsequent computations have extended this bound to $`1.000\times 10^{17}.`$ The dynamical behavior of the $`3x+1`$ function has been extensively studied. It is a deterministic process which nevertheless appears to exhibit a kind of pseudorandom behavior. Surveys on the $`3x+1`$ problem can be found in Lagarias , Müller  and Wirsching .

To study the behavior of iterates of the $`3x+1`$ function on the positive integers quantitatively, we make the following definitions. For each $`n`$ we call the minimal $`k`$ such that $`T^{(k)}(n)=1`$ the total stopping time of $`n`$ and denote it $`\sigma _{\mathrm{}}(n)`$, letting $`\sigma _{\mathrm{}}(n)=\mathrm{}`$ if it is otherwise undefined. A rescaled version of the total stopping time, which we call the stopping time ratio $`\gamma (n)`$, defined by

(2)
$$\gamma (n):=\frac{\sigma _{\mathrm{}}(n)}{\mathrm{log}n}.$$

A trajectory converges if it has a finite total stopping time, and we consider it to consist of $`n`$ and all its iterates up to the first iterate $`k`$ with $`T^{(k)}(n)=1.`$ Its parity sequence $`𝐯(n)`$ is the zero-one vector of length $`\sigma _{\mathrm{}}(n)`$ giving the residue $`(mod2)`$ of $`n`$ and its iterates up to $`T^{(k1)}(n)`$. The ones-ratio $`\rho (𝐯)`$ of a zero-one vector $`𝐯`$ is the ratio of the number of ones in the vector to its length. By extension the ones ratio $`\rho (n)`$ of a convergent trajectory is defined to be the fraction of odd integers appearing in its parity sequence, i.e. the ones-ratio $`\rho (𝐯(n))`$. For example, the trajectory of $`n=3`$ is $`(3,5,8,4,2,1)`$, with total stopping time $`\sigma _{\mathrm{}}(3)=5`$, parity sequence $`𝐯(3)=(1,1,0,0,0)`$ and ones-ratio $`\rho (3)=\frac{2}{5}=0.4.`$ In this case $`\gamma (3)=\frac{5}{\mathrm{log}3}4.5512.`$

This paper is concerned with rigorous results concerning the behavior of the stopping time ratio $`\gamma (n).`$ It is well known that $`\gamma (n)\frac{1}{\mathrm{log}2}`$ for all $`n`$, and that equality holds exactly for $`n=2^k`$ for $`k1.`$ In this paper our object is to get lower bounds for the stopping time ratio, of the form $`\gamma (n)\gamma ,`$ for some constant $`\gamma >\frac{1}{\mathrm{log}2},`$ that hold for infinitely many $`n`$. We note that study of the size of the stopping time ratio is essentially the same as studying the size of the ones-ratio, as given by the following bounds. For any convergent trajectory one has

(3)
$$\gamma (n)\frac{1}{\mathrm{log}2\rho (n)\mathrm{log}3},$$

while if $`\rho (n).61`$ then, for any positive $`ϵ`$,

$$\gamma (n)\frac{1}{\mathrm{log}2\rho (n)\mathrm{log}3}+ϵ,$$

holds provided $`n`$ is sufficiently large, with $`n>n_0(ϵ)`$. (It is believed that the condition $`\rho (n).61`$ should hold for all sufficiently large integers, see below, while to get a uniform bound in terms of $`ϵ`$ as above, one needs only assume $`\rho (n)c_0<\frac{\mathrm{log}2}{\mathrm{log}3}.63092.`$) Our actual analysis will be based on study of the ones-ratio.

As background, we review the current conjectures about the size of the stopping time ratio. These conjectures were suggested by theoretical results proved for stochastic models; these models make predictions about the total stopping time function which successfully match experimental evidence for iterates of the $`3x+1`$ function. Simple models for average-case behavior of the stopping time function appear in Crandall , Lagarias , Rawsthorne , Lagarias and Weiss  and Borovkov and Pfeifer . These models predict that the average value of $`\gamma (n)`$ should be

$$\frac{2}{\mathrm{log}4/3}6.95212,$$

which corresponds to a ones-ratio of $`\frac{1}{2},`$ and that nearly all values of $`\gamma (n)`$ should be within $`O((\frac{1}{\sqrt{\mathrm{log}n}})^{1+ϵ})`$ of this value. This is well supported by experimental evidence.

Lagarias and Weiss  also developed stochastic models to describe the maximal values attained by the total stopping time. These models are are analyzed using the theory of large deviations. They predict that the limit superior of $`\gamma (n)`$ as $`n\mathrm{}`$ should be a certain constant $`\gamma _{BP}41.677647`$, which corresponds to a ones-ratio of about $`0.609091.`$ (This constant is the solution to a certain functional equation given in .) The occurrence of values close to the extremal one are extremely rare events whose probability can be estimated in the stochastic models, see \[9, Section 6\]). For example, the largest value to be expected for $`n<10^{17}`$ is about $`32,`$ and Oliveira e Silva’s record number is $`n=1,008,932,249,296,231`$ with $`\sigma _{\mathrm{}}(n)=1142`$ and $`\gamma (n)33.0558.`$ Backwards search methods have uncovered some larger integers which have larger values of $`\gamma (n)`$. V. Vyssotsky  found that $`\gamma (n)35.2789`$ for

$$n=37,664,971,860,959,140,595,765,286,740,059,$$

which has $`\sigma _{\mathrm{}}(n)=2565`$. He also found the current record value for $`\gamma (n)`$ of about $`36.40`$, coming from a number around $`10^{110}`$.

We now turn to the problem considered here, that of obtaining bounds $`\alpha `$ such that there are provably infinitely many positive $`n`$ having $`\gamma (n)\gamma .`$ The current best value of $`\alpha `$ is that associated to the family of numbers $`n=2^k1.`$ It is well known that after $`k`$ iterations one reaches $`T^{(k)}(n)=3^k1.`$ Since this number cannot get to $`1`$ any faster than a power of $`2`$ (which in fact occurs for $`k=2`$), one obtains the rigorous lower bound

(4)
$$\gamma (2^k1)\frac{\mathrm{log}2+\mathrm{log}3}{(\mathrm{log}2)^2}3.729.$$

This corresponds to a ones ratio about $`0.387`$. It is expected that the numbers $`3^k1`$ for most $`k`$ have iterates behaving like a “random” integer, in which case the lower bound (4) could be significantly improved for infinitely many $`k`$. However, as far as is currently known, it could be the case that for each $`ϵ>0`$ the bound

$$\sigma _{\mathrm{}}(3^k1)<(\frac{1}{\mathrm{log}2}+ϵ)\mathrm{log}(3^k1),$$

holds for all sufficiently large $`k`$; if so then (4) could not be improved upon, asymptotically as $`k\mathrm{}.`$.

The object of this paper is to improve this lower bound, as follows.

###### Theorem 1.1.

There exist infinitely many $`n1`$ having a convergent trajectory with a ones-ratio of at least $`\frac{14}{29}0.4827`$. Thus there is an infinite set of positive integers $`n`$ such that $`\gamma (n)`$ is finite and

(5)
$$\gamma (n)\frac{29}{29\mathrm{log}214\mathrm{log}3}6.14316.$$

This result is proved by a study of all $`3x+1`$ trees to depth $`60`$, by extensive computation, involving paths with up to $`29`$ ones. In the rest of the paper we describe $`3x+1`$ trees, the form of proof certificates for lower bounds of the kind in Theorem 1.1 and the computations.

## 2. 3X + 1 Trees

The $`3x+1`$ iteration when run backwards from any fixed integer $`a`$ produces a tree of preimages of $`a`$.

A $`3x+1`$ tree $`𝒯_k(a)`$ is a rooted, labelled tree of depth $`k`$, representing the inverse iterates $`T^j(a)`$ for $`0jk`$. The inverse map $`T^1(n)`$ is multivalued:

$$T^{(1)}(n)=\{\begin{array}{cc}\{2n\}\hfill & \text{if }n0\text{ or }1(mod3)\text{,}\hfill \\ \{2n,\frac{2n1}{3}\}\hfill & \text{if }n2(mod3)\text{.}\hfill \end{array}$$

The root node $`a`$ is at depth 0, and a node labelled $`n`$ at depth $`d`$ of the tree is connected by an edge to a node labelled $`T(n)`$ at depth $`d1`$ of the tree111We adopt a convention of “unrolling” any cycles under $`T`$, so that the same node label may appear at different levels of the tree if a cycle is present, cf. Figure 1.. Thus the depth of a node is the number of edges in a path from it to the root node. As described in , the nodes labelled $`n0(mod3)`$ give rise only to a linear chain of nodes labelled $`n^{}0(mod3)`$ at higher levels. It is convenient to remove all such nodes and study a “pruned” tree $`𝒯_k^{}(n)`$ consisting of nodes $`n0(mod3)`$. That is, we study the inverse map on the set of positive integers $`n0(mod3)`$ given by

$$T_{}^{}{}_{}{}^{(1)}(n)=\{\begin{array}{cc}\{2n\}\hfill & \text{if }n1,4,5\text{ or }7(mod9)\text{,}\hfill \\ \{2n,\frac{2n1}{3}\}\hfill & \text{if }n2\text{ or }8(mod9)\text{.}\hfill \end{array}$$

Figure 1 presents some examples of $`𝒯_k(a)`$ and $`𝒯_k^{}(a)`$. (Nodes $`n5(mod9)`$ are circled to indicate that they have some preimage $`T^1(n)0(mod3)`$, and nodes $`n0(mod3)`$ are indicated with a square.)

We assign to each edge of a $`3x+1`$ tree between depth $`d`$ and $`d1`$ an edge label $`0`$ or $`1`$, which is the value $`n(mod2)`$ of the endpoint node at depth $`d`$. Traversing a path from a leaf node labelled $`n`$ in $`𝒯_k^{}(a)`$ at depth $`d`$ to the root node $`a`$, the successive edge labels encode the initial part of the parity vector $`𝐯(n)`$ of $`n`$, and the zero-one weight vector $`𝐰(n;a)`$ is the reversal of the vector $`𝐯(n)`$ to the root and gives the sequence of edge labels from the root node to the node $`n`$. The weight $`w`$ of such a path is the sum of the edge labels on the path, and we sometimes say that the node $`n`$ has weight $`w(n)`$. Note that $`\frac{w(n)}{d}`$ is the ones-ratio of this vector along the path. The max-weight $`w_{max}(a)`$ of a tree $`𝒯_k^{}(a)`$ is the largest weight among all paths from a leaf node to the root node. Thus $`\frac{w_{max}(a)}{k}`$ is the maximal ones-ratio among any path in the tree $`𝒯_k^{}(a)`$ from a depth $`k`$ node to the root.

The structure of a pruned $`3x+1`$ tree $`𝒯_k^{}(a)`$ of depth $`k`$ is its isomorphism class as a rooted, edge-labelled tree. That is, we say that two pruned $`3x+1`$ trees $`𝒯_k^{}(a)`$ and $`𝒯_k^{}(b)`$ have the same structure if they are isomorphic as rooted trees by an isomorphism that preserves edge labels. The structure of a “pruned” $`3x+1`$ tree $`𝒯_k^{}(a)`$ is completely determined by knowledge of $`a(mod3^{l+2})`$, where $`l=w_{max}(a).`$ To demonstrate this, we grow the tree from the root, labelling each new node $`n(mod3^m)`$, where $`m`$ is determined recursively, as follows. The root node is assigned $`m=w_{max}(a)+2.`$ For each node $`n(mod3^m)`$ at level $`d`$, we assert $`m2`$, and if $`n1,4,5`$ or $`7(mod9)`$ there is a single edge labelled $`0`$ to a node at level $`d+1`$ labelled $`2n(mod3^m)`$. If $`n2`$ or $`8(mod9)`$, there is one node at depth $`d+1`$ as above plus a second edge labelled $`1`$ to a node at depth $`d+1`$ labelled $`(2n1)/3(mod3^{m1})`$. Since we started with $`m=w_{max}(a)+2`$ at the root node, and since no path has more than $`w_{max}(a)`$ edge labels of $`1`$, the value of the exponents $`m`$ stays at least $`2`$ all the way to, and including, the leaves at level $`k`$.

We can improve on this bound, in one circumstance. We say that a tree $`𝒯_k^{}(a)`$ is critical at max-weight (or max-level) $`l`$ if it has max-weight $`w_{max}(a)=l`$ and if all nodes at depth $`k1`$ have weights $`w_{max}(a)1`$ or less in their path to the root. The structure of a critical tree is completely determined by $`a(mod3^{l+1})`$ where $`l=w_{max}(a)`$, rather than $`a(mod3^{l+2})`$. The proof is the same as before, noting that the exponent $`m2`$ on every node up to and including depth $`k1`$, but $`m=1`$ may occur on some leaf nodes, on paths of weight exactly $`w_{max}(a)`$.

For trees of depth $`k`$ one has $`lk`$, and the case $`l=k`$ is necessarily critical, so by the discussion above all pruned tree structures $`𝒯_k^{}(a)`$ are determined by $`a(mod3^{k+1})`$. Thus there are at most $`23^k`$ distinct pruned tree structures $`𝒯_k^{}(a)`$ of depth $`k`$. The actual number $`R(k)`$ of distinct tree structures is smaller but still grows exponentially in $`k`$.

We now suppose given as data a congruence class $`a(mod3^{l+1})`$, and from it we may grow a “pruned” $`3x+1`$ tree with root $`a`$ to the (unique) depth $`k`$ at which it becomes critical with max-weight $`l`$. We represent $`a(mod3^{l+1})`$ as a ternary (or $`3`$-adic) vector $`𝐜=𝐜(a)=(c_0,c_1\mathrm{},c_l)`$ of length $`l+1`$, where

$$a=(c_lc_{l1}\mathrm{}c_0)_3=\underset{j=0}{\overset{l}{}}c_j3^j,$$

with $`c_j\{0,1,2\}.`$ We label this tree $`𝒯_{[l]}^{}(𝐜)`$. Using the procedure above, we can construct node labels for this tree consisting of such $`3`$-adic vectors of variable length $`m`$ at each node. Figure 2 illustrates this, depicting the “pruned” tree $`𝒯_5^{}(4)`$, which is critical with max-weight $`2`$, and the same tree $`𝒯_{[2]}(011)`$ computed using root value $`4(mod27).`$

We define the ones-ratio $`\rho (𝐜)`$ for a critical tree $`𝒯_{[l]}^{}(𝐜)`$ to be

$$\rho (𝐜):=\frac{l}{k},$$

where $`k`$ is the depth of the tree, and $`l`$ is its criticality level.

## 3. Lower Bound Certificates

We describe a finite set of information (“certificates”) that are sufficient to yield proof that there are infinitely many $`n1`$ having a finite total stopping time whose ones-ratio satisfies the lower bound

(6)
$$\rho (n)\alpha .$$

###### Definition 3.1.

A prefix code $`𝒞`$ for ternary sequences is a finite set of codewords $`𝐜=(c_0,c_1,\mathrm{},c_l)\{0,1,2\}^{l+1}`$ of varying lengths $`l=l(𝐜)`$ having the properties:

* If $`𝐜,𝐜^{}𝒞`$ with $`𝐜𝐜^{}`$, then $`𝐜`$ is not a prefix of $`𝐜^{}`$ or vice-versa.
* Any infinite sequence $`𝐬=(s_1,s_2,s_3,\mathrm{})\{0,1,2\}^_0`$ has an initial segment $`(s_1,s_2,\mathrm{},s_{l+1})`$ that is a codeword in $`𝒞`$.

###### Definition 3.2.

A (lower bound) certificate for ones-ratio $`\alpha `$ consists of:

* A finite list $`𝒞`$ of residue classes $`a(mod3^{l+1})`$ for various lengths, $`l=l(a)`$, which are exhaustive, in the sense that their associated vectors $`𝐜(a)`$, together with the additional vector $`𝐜_0=0`$, form a (ternary) prefix code.
* With each $`a𝒞`$ with $`a(mod3^{l+1})`$ is given a critical path vector $`𝐰(a)\{0,1\}^k`$, where $`k`$ satisfies

$$l/k\alpha ,$$

such that $`𝐰(a)`$ has weight at most $`l`$, and if it has weight exactly $`l`$, then a one occurs in its last coordinate, and $`𝐰(a)=𝐰(n;a)`$ for some leaf node of this $`3x+1`$ tree, i.e. $`𝐰(a)`$ is a labelled path in the $`(3x+1)`$ tree of $`a(mod3^{l+1})`$, from the root node to some node at depth $`k`$.

The certificate vector certifies that the associated critical tree $`𝒯_{[l]}^{}(𝐜(a))`$ with max-level $`l`$ has depth222A single path is a $`3x+1`$ tree sometimes can be grown to a depth greater than $`k`$, from knowledge of $`a(mod3^{l+1})`$, as long as it has weight at most $`l`$, and if exactly weight $`l`$ then it has a one in its last coordinate. $`k^{}`$ with $`k^{}k`$ and has ones-ratio $`l/k^{}\alpha `$.

As an example, we present in Table 1 a certificate for level $`\alpha =1/3`$.

In this table the numbers $`a(mod3^{l+1})`$ are represented in their ternary expansion, so form a suffix code, rather than a prefix code. (The vectors $`𝐜(a)`$ reverse the order of the digits.) This certificate has max-weight $`4`$ and max-depth $`12`$, and consists of $`12`$ different trees.

###### Definition 3.3.

A strong lower bound certificate for ones-ratio $`\alpha `$ consists of a finite list $`𝒞`$ as above satisfying:

* Same as (i) above.
* With each $`a(mod3^{l+1})𝒞`$ are given two critical path vectors $`𝐰_j(a)\{0,1\}^{k_j}`$, with weights $`l_jl`$, respectively, such that neither is a prefix of the other, and where $`k_j`$ and $`l_j`$ satisfy

$$l_j/k_j\alpha ,$$

and if $`𝐰_j`$ has weight exactly $`l`$ then it has a 1 in its last coordinate, and each $`𝐰_j(a)`$ can be found as a labeled path of length $`k_j`$ from the root in the $`3x+1`$ tree of $`a(mod3^{l+1})`$.

As an example, there exists a strong lower bound certificate for $`\alpha =\frac{1}{3}`$ which has max-weight $`4`$ and max-depth $`12`$, the same as the lower bound certificate above, but which consists of $`42`$ trees. It appears in Table 2 below.

###### Theorem 3.1.

(i) The existence of a lower bound certificate for ratio $`\alpha `$ implies: Given any $`a1`$ with $`a0`$ $`(mod3)`$, not in a cycle, there exist infinitely many $`n`$ having

(7)
$$T^{(k)}(n)=a,$$

for some $`k1`$, and such that the ones-ratio $`\rho (n;a):=\rho (𝐰(n;a))`$ of the path from $`n`$ to $`a`$ has

(8)
$$\rho (n;a)=l/k\alpha ,$$

(ii) The existence of a strong lower bound certificate for ones-ratio $`\alpha `$ implies: Given any $`a1`$ with $`a0`$ $`(mod3)`$ the number of $`nx`$ with $`T^{(k)}(n)=a`$ for some $`k1`$ and with

(9)
$$\rho (n;a)=l/k\alpha ,$$

is at least $`c(a)x^\delta `$ for certain $`c(a)>0`$ and $`\delta =\delta (a)>0`$.

###### Proof.

(i) Since $`a`$ is not in a cycle, all the nodes in the (infinite) “pruned” $`3x+1`$ tree $`𝒯^{}(n)`$ with root node $`a`$ have distinct values.

We can find an infinite path $`𝐬=(s_1,s_2,s_3,\mathrm{})\{0,1\}^_0`$ from the root node $`a`$ in $`𝒯^{}(a)`$ which contains infinitely many nodes satisfying (8). View $`a`$ as a 3-adic integer, encoded as

$$𝐜(a)=(c_0,c_1,c_2,c_3,\mathrm{})\{0,1,2\}^_0;$$

in which $`c_00`$ and $`c_j=0`$ for all sufficiently large $`j`$. Then $`𝐜(a)`$ has a prefix in the certificate $`𝒞`$, of length $`l+1`$, say. By property (ii) of the certificate, there exists a path in the associated tree $`𝒯_{[l_1]}^{}(𝐜(a))`$ from leaf node $`n`$ to $`a`$ with

$$T^{(k_1)}(n_1)=a$$

and

(10)
$$\rho (n;a)=\frac{l_1}{k_1}\alpha ,$$

where $`k_1`$ is the depth of $`𝒯_{[l]}^{}(c(𝐚))`$. Now $`n_1_0`$ is not in a cycle and $`n_10`$ $`(mod3)`$, so we can repeat the same construction; finding a prefix of $`𝐜(n_1)`$ of length $`l_2+1`$, say, with tree $`𝒯_{[l_2]}^{}(𝐜(n_1))`$ of depth $`k_2`$ having a path from leaf node $`n_2`$ to $`n_1`$ with

$$T^{(k_2)}(n_2)=n_1$$

and

$$\rho (n_2,n_1)=\frac{l_2}{k_2}\alpha .$$

Thus

$$T^{(k_1+k_2)}(n_2)=a$$

and

(11)
$$\rho (n_2,a)\mathrm{min}[\frac{l_2}{k_2},\frac{l_1}{k_1}]\alpha .$$

Continuing inductively, we find an infinite chain $`an_1n_2n_3\mathrm{}`$ for which (7) and (8) hold.

(ii) We use a similar argument. Suppose first that $`a`$ is not in a cycle. Then at the first round we find two different paths in $`𝒯_{[l_1]}^{}(𝐜(a))`$ with $`n_1a`$, $`n_1^{}a`$ satisfying (8). At the $`j`$-th stage we produce $`2^j`$ distinct elements $`n_ja`$ satisfying (8). Furthermore, if the largest depth tree $`𝒯_{[l]}^{}(𝐜)`$ for $`𝐜𝒞`$ is $`d`$ then, all the elements $`n_j`$ are at depth at most $`jd`$ from the root node $`a`$, hence each such element satisifes $`n_j2^{jd}a`$. Let $`\pi _a^\alpha (x)`$ count the number of elements $`x`$ which satisfy (7) and (8). It follows that for $`2^{jd}ax<2^{(j+i)d}a`$ we have

(12)
$$\pi _a^\alpha (x)2^j>\frac{1}{2}\left(\frac{x}{a}\right)^{1/d}=c(a)x^{1/d}$$

with $`c(a)=\frac{1}{2}a^{1/d}`$.

Now suppose that $`a`$ is in a cycle, i.e. is periodic. Then in the first tree $`𝒯_{[l]}^{}(𝐜(a))`$ at least one of the two preimages $`n_1`$ and $`n_1^{}`$ of $`a`$ that satisfies (9) cannot be in the periodic cycle containing $`a`$. Let it be $`n_1`$, and we may then apply the argument above to the tree with root $`n_1`$ for which

$$\pi _{n_1}^\alpha (x)\frac{1}{2}(n_1)^{1/d}x^{1/d}.$$

But any such element $`nn_1a`$ by adjoining the path from $`n_1`$ to $`a`$, and the inequality (11) gives

$$\rho (n,a)\mathrm{min}[\rho (n,n_1),\rho (n_1,a)]\alpha .$$

Thus

(13)
$$\pi _a^\alpha (x)\pi _{n_1}^\alpha (x)\frac{1}{2}(n_1)^{1/d}x^{1/d}\frac{1}{4}a^{1/d}x^{1/d},$$

since $`n_12^da`$. ∎

Theorem 3.1 reduces the problem of finding lower bounds for $`\rho (n)`$ for infinitely many $`n`$ to that of finding suitable certificates, resp. strong certificates. Such certificates can be searched for by computer, as we describe next. We note that for any fixed $`\alpha >\frac{1}{2}`$ the stochastic models studied in Lagarias and Weiss  predict that the number of $`nx`$ that have $`\rho (n)\alpha `$ is bounded above by $`x^{\gamma (\alpha )+o(1)}`$ for a certain exponent $`\gamma (\alpha )<1.`$ (The value $`\gamma (\alpha )`$ is effectively computable as the fixed point of a certain functional equation.) It follows that strong lower bound certificates for such $`\alpha `$, if they could be found, would produce a lower bound qualitatively of the correct form as what would be expected from the stochastic model predications, but (presumably) with a much smaller exponent than $`\gamma (\alpha )`$.

## 4. Computational Results

We may search for lower bound certificates resp. strong lower bound certificates by a “greedy” algorithm, as follows.

### Certificate Search Algorithm

* Input Data: $`\alpha `$ with $`0<\alpha <1`$.
* Initialization: $`𝒞=\{𝐜_{ij}:i\{1,2\},j\{0,1,2\}\}`$ with $`𝐜_{ij}=(i,j)\{0,1,2\}^2`$. Set level $`l=1`$. Declare all vectors $`𝐜_{ij}𝒞`$ open.
* Tree Test Step: Select an open vector $`𝐜𝒞`$, and let $`l+1`$ be the length of $`𝐜`$. Compute $`𝒯_l^{}(𝐜)`$ and determine its depth $`d=d(l,𝐜)`$. If $`l/d\alpha `$ declare the vector $`𝐜`$ closed. Otherwise split $`𝐜`$ into three vectors of length $`l+2`$, $`(𝐜,0)`$, $`(𝐜,1)`$ and $`(𝐜,2)`$, at level $`l+1`$. Update $`𝒞`$ by deleting $`𝐜`$ and adding the three new vectors. Declare the three new vectors open.
* Termination Test: If all $`𝐜𝒞`$ are closed, halt. Otherwise, repeat the tree test step.

In order to keep the set of open prefixes $`𝒞`$ as small as possible during this algorithm, it is convenient to choose at each test step to examine an open prefix vector that is one of those currently of greatest level.

This algorithm is not guaranteed to halt, but if it does, it produces a lower bound certificate for ratio $`\alpha `$. The correctness of the algorithm is based on the observation that $`𝒞`$ is a prefix code at all times: the “splitting” step replacing $`𝐜`$ by $`(𝐜,0)`$, $`(𝐜,1)`$ and $`(𝐜,2)`$ preserves the prefix code property. It is also easy to see that the algorithm will find a certificate $`𝒞`$ if any certificate exists for ones-ratio $`\alpha `$, and it will be one of minimal depth.

The algorithm above is easily modified to give a Strong Certificate Search Algorithm. It is exactly the same, except that the rule for closing a node is modified: A vector $`𝐜𝒞`$ at level $`l`$ is declared closed (only) if $`l/d\alpha `$ and at least two paths of weight $`l`$ exist from the root to a leaf of $`𝒯_l^{}(𝐜)`$. If the algorithm halts, it produces a strong lower bound certificate for ones-ratio $`\alpha `$.

We searched by computer for certificates and strong certificates, for different values of $`\alpha `$. The certificate and strong certificate for level $`\alpha =1/3`$ presented in Table 1 and Table 2 were found in this way. The size of certificates grows rapidly with increasing $`\alpha `$. Table 3 presents data giving the maximal value of $`\alpha `$ for which a certificate exists in which all trees have a critical path containing at most $`l`$ ones, for $`1l<29`$, as well as a (not necessarily maximal) value of $`\alpha `$ for which a certificate exists for $`l=29`$.

###### Theorem 4.1.

A lower bound certificate $`𝒞`$ exists for ones-ratio $`\alpha =\frac{14}{29}0.4827`$.

###### Proof.

The certificate was found by computer search, of size indicated in Table 3. The computer search required examining trees to depth $`60`$, with some paths having $`29`$ ones, although the path with the largest ones ratio occured in a tree of depth $`58`$, having $`28`$ ones. It is an interesting feature of this certificate that the “worst” tree is not one of maximal depth in the search. ∎

Proof of Theorem 1.1. Since $`a=1`$ is in a cycle, we cannot apply Theorem 3.1(i) directly. Instead we consider $`n=41`$ and note that $`\rho (n)>\frac{55}{100}`$ and $`\gamma (n)>20`$. Now we apply Theorem 3.1(i) to $`n=41`$ using $`\alpha =\frac{14}{29}`$ and the certificate of Theorem 4.1. Then the elements $`n41`$ produced in Theorem 3.1(i) have $`n411`$ hence

$$\rho (n)\mathrm{min}[\rho (n;41),\rho (41)]\frac{14}{29},$$

as required.

The corresponding results for strong certificates are given in Table 4, giving the maximal value of $`\alpha `$ for which a strong certificate exists having trees with all critical paths having at most $`l`$ ones. This table is slightly less extensive because larger searches were required. The breakpoint values of $`\alpha `$ are not the same as for certificates. In many cases they do not involve a larger depth for the largest tree, but sometimes do.

Let $`\pi _\alpha (x)`$ count the number of $`n`$ with $`1<nx`$ which have finite total stopping time and ones-ratio $`\rho (n)\alpha .`$

###### Theorem 4.2.

A strong certificate $`𝒞`$ exists for ones-ratio $`\alpha =\frac{28}{59}0.4745`$. Furthermore there is a positive constant $`c`$ such that

$$\pi _\alpha (x)>cx^{1/59}.$$

###### Proof.

The proof is similar to that for Theorem 4.1. The bound for the exponent $`x^{1/59}`$ comes from (13). ∎

We remark on the size of the certificates versus the computation needed to find them. Although the certificates are large, they can be verified without computing the entire tree $`𝒯_{[l]}^{}(𝐜)`$; one simply backtracks along the given test path(s). However to find a minimal depth certificate, it appears necessary to calculate much of the tree $`𝒯_{[l]}^{}(𝐜)`$. Thus a much larger computation seems needed to find the certificate then to check it afterwards. Note that Lagarias and Weiss \[9, Theorem 3.1\] showed that the expected number of leaves in a “pruned” $`3x+1`$ tree of depth $`d`$ is $`\left(\frac{4}{3}\right)^d`$.

We now briefly describe the search method to find the maximal value of $`\alpha `$ for a given level $`l`$, the largest number of ones allowed in a critical path in a certificate. We initialize the search with $`\alpha `$ taken to be the maximal value at level $`l1`$, and with the given certificate. Given a current test value of $`\alpha `$, a rational number, we proceed with the algorithm above, looking for a certificate at level $`l`$. If one exists, we determine the critical path in the certificate having the largest ones-ratio, which gave a value $`\alpha ^{}`$, which is our current champion. Then we take as a new test value $`\alpha =\alpha ^{}+\frac{1}{10000}`$ and search it to level $`l`$ for a certificate. If we get a new certificate by level $`l`$, we continue. Otherwise, if some tree remains unclosed at level $`l`$, we halt the computation, and the current value of $`\alpha ^{}`$ is maximal at level $`l`$. This search procedure works because the maximal value $`\alpha `$ must be a rational number with denominator no larger than the maximal depth $`k\frac{l}{\alpha }`$, which in our search is always less than $`100`$. All such values fall inside the Farey sequence of order $`100`$, and the members of this Farey sequence differ by more than $`\frac{1}{10000}`$.

The straightforward method of computation to determine the critical path for a given $`3x+1`$ tree is to compute the entire tree. If the maximal level $`l`$ to be searched is known in advance (as it is in the incremental search algorithm above) then we can get a speedup by pruning all branches of the tree at the point where they cannot contribute any critical path, i.e. even if extended to the full allowed depth $`k=\frac{l}{\alpha }`$ with all edge labels $`1`$ they never have ones-ratio exceeding $`\alpha .`$

To conclude the computational results, we give statistics on the structure of the certificates found, as described by the number of open vectors remaining at a given level $`l^{}l`$ of the certificate search; this value counts the number of prefixes in the certificate having length at least $`l^{}`$. We present data on these values for different values of $`\alpha `$.

This data is plotted on a logarithmic scale in Figure 3. When extrapolated, this data makes some indication of what depth of tree one is likely to have to search to get a certificate for larger values of $`\alpha `$ than we obtained. The rate of increase of $`\alpha `$ must slow down as $`l`$ increases, so we view this extrapolation as indicating a lower bound on the depth to which one will have to search. We note, however, that the data in Figure 3 exhibits some irregular jumps the value of $`\alpha `$, including a strange non-increase in the value of $`\alpha `$ from level $`l=5`$ to $`l=6`$.

## 5. Discussion

(1) How large a lower bound can the method of this paper produce?

The stochastic models for $`3x+1`$ trees (branching random walk models) studied in Lagarias and Weiss  predict that with probability one a random tree grown to a large depth $`k\mathrm{}`$ will contain a path $`𝒫`$ having $`\gamma (𝒫)>\gamma _{BP}ϵ,`$ for any fixed $`ϵ>0.`$ However the method of proof given above requires the lower bound $`\gamma _0`$ to be achieved for all trees at some given depth 333 We actually require only that each such tree contain some subtree containing the root vertex, of possibly smaller depth, having a path which achieves the given bound $`\gamma \gamma _0`$, and not just for “almost all” trees of that depth. In terms of the stochastic models of  and , we are sampling an exponential number of trees (namely independently drawing $`3^k`$ trees at depth $`k`$) out of the double-exponential number of possible trees in the branching random walk model at this depth, and demanding that they all have $`\gamma (𝒫)\gamma _0`$. In our deterministic situation, if this event ever occurs at some level $`k`$ , it yields a rigorous proof of the lower bound. In the analogous stochastic model, we should expect this cutoff event to occur at some finite level $`k`$ with probability one whenever the set of “exceptional trees” with $`\gamma <\gamma _0`$ has an exponentially small probability, less than $`3^k`$, for all sufficiently large $`k`$. In  a large deviations analysis based on exactly this idea produced the constant $`\gamma _{BP}.`$ We conclude that the stochastic model supports the heuristic that this proof method should be expected to work for any $`\gamma _0<\gamma _{BP}`$, provided that we can search trees to a sufficient depth, depending on $`\gamma _0.`$

To gain more confidence in this heuristic, it would be interesting to make the stochastic model analysis of  more precise, and to obtain a prediction for each $`\gamma _0`$, of what depth $`k`$ one should expect to have to go to before an independently generated sample of $`3^k`$ trees of that depth $`k`$ for the branching random walk, contains no maximal path with $`\gamma (𝒫)<\gamma _0`$ with probability at least $`\frac{1}{2}.`$

(2) Can a lower bound on the ones-ratio of $`\frac{1}{2}`$ be attained?

It remains surprising (to us) that a search to depth $`60`$ of all trees was insufficient to produce a rigorous proof of the bound

$$\gamma _0\frac{2}{\mathrm{log}4/3}6.95212,$$

a bound which is believed to apply to the vast majority of initial values $`n`$. The statistical evidence provided by the cutoff values for increasing values of the ones ratio from $`0.41`$ through $`0.48`$, when extrapolated, seem to indicate that a search to max-weight $`l`$ of at least $`38`$, which corresponds to trees of depth $`76`$, will be needed. We experimented on growing a few trees starting from the certificate with ones-ratio $`0.48`$ to see how deep they had to become before a path with ones ratio of $`0.50`$ or greater appeared; these seemed to require depth around $`68`$. If this represents the “knee” of the curve for $`0.50`$ in Figure 3, then perhaps the depth necessary for a certificate might be smaller, say $`72`$. In any case this would require a very large computation.

With regard to extending the computations further, we note that the certificate search algorithm of §4 is well suited to parallel and distributed computation, since each open vector can be analyzed separately. Thus it should be possible to search to considerably greater depth using a network of machines. We leave a rigorous proof of the lower bound $`\frac{1}{2}`$ as a challenge to future researchers.


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# Empirical relations for cluster RR Lyrae stars revisited

## 1 Introduction

In recent years we have conducted a series of studies aimed at deriving empirical relations between the Fourier parameters of the light curves and the physical parameters of the RR Lyrae stars (Jurcsik & Kovács 1996; Kovács & Jurcsik 1996, 1997; hereafter JK96, KJ96, KJ97, respectively). The method is purely empirical, and based on the assumption that the period and the shape of the light curve are directly correlated with the physical parameters (or quantities related to them), such as the absolute magnitude $`M_V`$, intrinsic color $`(BV)_0`$ and metal abundance \[Fe/H\]. Therefore, it is hoped that once the formulae are derived for a representative sample, the relative values of the above physical parameters can be determined for any other RR Lyrae star, assuming that accurate light curve parameters in $`V`$ color are available.

The advantage of this method would be the utilization of very accurate observables (period, Fourier parameters) in calculating individual stellar parameters. If it were possible to fit a large number of calibrating objects (in the present study, globular cluster variables) with the accuracy of the observational noise, this would imply a precise calculation of the relative physical parameters from the derived formulae. In addition to the more practical applications of relative distance and reddening determinations, the ultimate goal is to reach the level of accuracy at which a direct (star by star) comparison with the evolutionary calculations becomes possible.

In JK96 we used Galactic field RR Lyrae stars for the derivation of the \[Fe/H\] formula. The expression was shown to give reliable abundances also for cluster stars, except perhaps at the low abundance end, where our formulae predict somewhat higher abundances. (However, we note that this result is based on the average cluster values obtained from direct abundance analyses of giants and not of RR Lyrae stars. Recent spectroscopic investigations of Behr et al. (1999) indicate that substantial abundance differences might exist even within the horizontal branch.)

The relations for $`M_V`$ and $`(BV)_0`$ were obtained from globular cluster stars (see KJ96 and KJ97). If we assume that cluster and field RR Lyrae stars cover overlapping evolutionary stages and physical parameter space, then these latter formulae can also be applied to the field stars. The validity of this statement depends crucially on the completeness of the calibrating sample. Recent ccd photometric studies of cluster RR Lyrae stars allow us to satisfy this condition more closely in the present investigation than in our former studies, and revisit the problem of absolute magnitude and color calibrations. Both the quality and the quantity of these new data lead to better determination of the number of significant Fourier parameters entering in the formulae and, at the same time, to a more accurate calculation of the regression coefficients.

## 2 The new empirical formulae

The clusters and the corresponding number of variables together with the sources of the data are summarized in Table 1. This table contains all fundamental mode RR Lyrae (RRab) stars from the given sources, except those with: (a) obvious amplitude modulation (Blazhko effect), (b) clear outlier status due to e.g., cluster non-membership, (c) poor quality light curves, (d) short periods and sinusoidal light curves (e.g., V73, 76, 169, 185, 189 in $`\omega `$ Cen and V70 in M3). Fourier parameters of the $`V`$ light curves and average colors used in this paper are given in Table 2.222Table 2 is available only in electronic form at CDS (ftp 130.79.128.5)

Color indices and average $`V`$ colors are calculated from the same source, except for M5. In the case of this cluster we average the $`V`$ values used by KJ97 and the ones published by Kaluzny et al. (2000) for all common stars in the two publications. In comparison with KJ96 and KJ97, we see that there is more than a factor of two increase in the number of stars in all colors (this is so even though in the present data sets we have omitted all photographic and less accurate ccd data used in our previous analyses). The large sample enables us to deal with separate data sets and obtain further information on the statistical significance of the various regressions.

For deriving the relations between the Fourier parameters, absolute magnitudes and colors, we follow the same methodology as in our former studies. For example, in the case of $`M_V`$, the best regression is obtained from the minimization of the following expression

$`𝒟^2={\displaystyle \frac{1}{N^{}}}{\displaystyle \underset{j=1}{\overset{N_c}{}}}{\displaystyle \underset{i=1}{\overset{N_j}{}}}\left[V_j(i)\stackrel{~}{d}_jm_0{\displaystyle \underset{k=1}{\overset{N_p}{}}}m_k_k(i)\right]^2,`$ (1)
where $`N^{}=NN_cN_p`$, $`N`$ is the total number of stars, $`N_c`$ is the number of clusters, $`N_p`$ is the number of the Fourier parameters, $`N_j`$ is the number of stars in the $`j`$-th cluster, $`V_j(i)`$ is the observed average magnitude of the $`i`$-th star in the $`j`$-th cluster. The Fourier parameters (including the period) are denoted by $`_k(i)`$. The least-squares minimization leads to the determination of the relative reddened distance moduli $`\stackrel{~}{d}_j`$ and the regression coefficients $`m_k`$. The zero point of the magnitude scale $`m_0`$ is absorbed in the distance moduli and should be determined from some direct distance calibration (e.g., parallaxes, Baade-Wesselink analyses, double-mode variables, etc., however, please note that the absolute magnitude scale of the RR Lyrae stars is still an unsettled issue — e.g., Stanek et al. 2000 vs. Feast 1999 and Kovács 2000).

For each fixed $`N_p`$ we check all possible combinations from the period $`P`$ and from the first five Fourier amplitudes and phases ($`A_1`$, …, $`A_5`$; $`\phi _{21}`$, …, $`\phi _{51}`$ — see Simon & Teays (1982) and JK96 for the definition of these quantities). After finding the best fit, we repeat the procedure with another $`N_p`$ ($`8`$). The optimum fit is obtained at the lowest parameter number for which the fitting accuracy $`𝒟`$ starts to become constant. Throughout this paper we use linear combinations of the Fourier parameters. We have not found any clear sign of preference for using nonlinear combinations either for the fitting or for the fitted quantities.

Three observables, related to static (or more accurately, to pulsation-cycle-averaged) stellar parameters, are studied. The first one is the intensity averaged $`V`$ magnitude. The advantage of this quantity is that it is directly related to the absolute magnitude $`M_V`$ of the static star (cf. Bono, Caputo & Stellingwerf 1995). The disadvantage of the $`V`$ magnitude is that it is strongly affected by inhomogeneous cluster reddening which may be important in some clusters. From this point of view, a better approach is fitting reddening-free quantities, such as $`W=VR_V(BV)`$ and $`X=VR_I(VI)`$, where $`R_V`$ and $`R_I`$ are the extinction ratios (e.g., Cardelli, Clayton & Mathis 1989; Liu & Janes 1990). Here we set $`R_V=3.1`$, $`R_I=2.5`$ (the latter value corresponds to the Kron-Cousins system in $`I`$ color). We use magnitude averages both in $`W`$ and in $`X`$, because there does not seem to be a strong preference toward other averages when a comparison is made between the static and average color indices in the nonlinear pulsation models (Bono et al. 1995). The observed and intrinsic quantities are related through the true distance modulus

$`W=W_0+d,`$ (2)
and similar expression holds also for $`X`$. Our task is to derive relations between the Fourier parameters and the intrinsic quantities. For the calculation of the distance modulus in the case of other values of $`R_V`$ and $`R_I`$ than the ones used in this paper, the expressions derived here for $`W_0`$ and $`X_0`$ can still be used but the distance modulus should be modified according to KJ97.

The price we have to pay for eliminating reddening in $`W`$ and $`X`$ is the amplification of the observational noise due to the large values of $`R_V`$ and $`R_I`$. If the reddening is sufficiently small, it is obvious that using $`W`$ and $`X`$ is not the best idea, because of the unnecessarily amplified observational noise. Therefore, for any noise in the reddening and in the $`B`$ and $`V`$ magnitudes, there is an optimum trade-off between filtering out reddening fluctuations and keeping the effect of observational noise at minimum. Indeed, the expression for the variance of $`W=V\alpha (BV)`$ shows this property

$`\sigma _W^2`$ $`=`$ $`(R_V\alpha )^2\sigma _E^2+\alpha ^2\sigma _B^2+(1+\alpha )^2\sigma _V^2`$ (3)
$``$ $`2\alpha (1+\alpha )K\sigma _V\sigma _B.`$
Here $`\sigma _E`$, $`\sigma _B`$ and $`\sigma _V`$ are the standard deviations of the reddening, $`B`$ and $`V`$ magnitudes, respectively, and $`K`$ is the correlation coefficient of $`V`$ and $`B`$. Although tests with the observed data and the study of the above equation indicate that $`\alpha 1.5`$ – $`2.0`$ would be more preferable than $`\alpha =R_V`$, the gain is only about 10% in the increase of the fitting accuracy. This improvement does not seem to justify the giving up of the more transparent approach based on standard extinction ratios.

A general problem in searching for the best-fitting linear combination in the form of Eq. (1) is that the Fourier parameters $`_k(i)`$ are not independent. For the period and the total amplitude this correlation has been known for a long time (Preston 1959). As is shown in Fig. 1, there are approximate correlations also with the other Fourier parameters. Note that the scatter in these diagrams has a physical origin, because the accuracy of the low-order Fourier parameters is very high (better than $`1\%`$ if only the observational errors are considered, but may be less accurate than this in the case of hidden Blazhko variables — see also Sect. 2.1 for the discussion of the total errors in the Fourier parameters). One of the reasons for the scatter in Fig. 1 is that there are metallicity differences between the clusters. Assuming constant \[Fe/H\] for a given cluster, we would expect straight lines shifted vertically in the $`P\phi _{31}`$ diagram (see JK96). Because of the relatively narrow range, overlapping distributions of \[Fe/H\] in different clusters and chemical inhomogeneity in several clusters, this ridge structure is not seen in the figure. Other phases show similar progression, due to their tight interrelations with $`\phi _{31}`$ (JK96, see Kovács & Kanbur 1998 for an update of these relations). The scatter in the amplitudes is only partially due to metallicity effects (they yield much weaker correlation with \[Fe/H\] than the phases — see JK96). Because of the significant amplitude dependence of the luminosity and temperature, the rest of the scatter is attributed to the variation of these quantities.

The problem of the internal correlation of the Fourier parameters can be circumvented by constructing an orthogonal set with the aid of principal component analysis (see Kanbur, Mariani & Iono 2000). Although this approach certainly results in a better posed numerical scheme, both methods should end up with the same conclusion, because both of them use linear combinations of the same set of Fourier parameters. More sophisticated methods, such as the one mentioned, could be instrumental in the future studies of the finer (high frequency) details of the light curves, when the Fourier decomposition becomes a non-useful concept.

### 2.1 The absolute magnitude $`M_V`$

Because we have a large number of stars observed in $`V`$ color, we are in the position to test the significance of the derived formulae on two independent data sets. In Table 3 we show the distribution of the clusters in the two sets. The clusters are sorted in the two groups by following the guideline of yielding about the same number of stars and including good quality large samples in both sets.

In searching for the best fitting formula, we successively leave out those stars which can be regarded as outliers. This could be a somewhat delicate procedure, especially in the case of small sample size or noisy data, such as the samples used in our former investigations. In this work we are more conservative than in our previous studies and confine ourselves to secure outliers which exceed the $`3\sigma `$ limit. The list of these stars is given in Table 4. We see that there are 17 variables which do not conform to the relation required by the rest of the sample. This means a $`4\%`$ chance that the derived formula yields incorrect results in a randomly chosen sample of RRab stars (assuming that the sample does not contain ‘obvious’ Blazhko variables or stars with blended components). The chance of error may be even smaller, because some of the discarded stars might be Blazhko variables which would have been omitted if we had longer photometry available. Some of the stars listed in Table 4 show reasonably clear signs of observational or other defects. For example, V20 in N1851 and V16 in M2 have excessive scatter in their light curves. Blending or unresolved close components might be suspected in V118 of $`\omega `$ Cen and in V01446 and V02575 of Sculptor. Additional, more detailed examination of these and other stars are needed to clarify the reasons for their outlier status.

Fig. 2 shows the significance of the derived formulae. The standard deviations at $`N_p=0`$ are equal to the averages of the standard deviations of the observed magnitudes in each cluster. We see that the decrease of the unbiased estimates of the standard deviations for parameter numbers greater than 2, is very small. Therefore, the present data seem to suggest the existence of a relation which contains only 2 parameters. This is in conflict with our previous result, where we argued for the validity of a 3 parameter formula. Before we draw a conclusion, it is necessary to test if the smaller change of $`𝒟`$ in the case of the high parameter fits is statistically significant. Because of the complexity of the fitting procedure (e.g., the use of noisy Fourier parameters), it is not possible to apply standard methods of analysis of variances (e.g., Sachs 1982). Instead, direct numerical tests are performed. More specifically, in testing data set $`C`$, the procedure below is followed.

For each parameter number $`N_p`$, synthetic data are generated by using the formula obtained from the given data set. Then, Gaussian noise is added both to these data and to all Fourier parameters i.e., the test data have the following form:

$`v_j(i)=\stackrel{~}{d}_j+\xi _j(i)+{\displaystyle \underset{k=1}{\overset{N_p}{}}}m_k[_k(i)+\eta _k(i)].`$ (4)
In these tests the role of the exact values of the relative distance moduli $`\stackrel{~}{d}_j`$ is not essential. Therefore, we take simply the average $`V`$ magnitudes in each cluster as very rough substitutes for the exact values. The noise components are chosen in such a way as to yield the observed standard deviation at the given $`N_p`$. Because the observed standard deviation is a result of the errors of the Fourier parameters and of the average magnitudes, $`\sigma _\xi `$ is slightly smaller than the observed standard deviation. Unfortunately, the accurate values of the errors of the Fourier parameters are not known. Although the formal statistical errors can be computed, because of the larger dispersion of the interrelations, there might be additional sources of errors (e.g., Blazhko effect, background contamination). From the updated relations of Kovács & Kanbur (1998) we think that the values of $`\sigma (A_i)=0.01`$ and $`\sigma (\phi _{i1})=0.03`$ are reasonable estimates for the overall total errors of the low-order Fourier parameters. These values are used at all $`N_p`$ in the following simulations. The adjusted standard deviations of $`\xi _i`$ are $`0.057`$, $`0.041`$, $`0.039`$, $`0.038`$ and $`0.037`$ for $`N_p=1`$, $`2`$, $`3`$, $`4`$ and $`5`$, respectively. We note that these standard deviations are up to $`0.002`$ smaller than the observed ones shown in Fig. 2.

For each realization of the data generated above, standard parameter searches are performed, similar to the observed data. By repeating the analysis for many realizations, information is obtained on the significance of the regression at parameter number $`N_p`$.

The following statistical parameters are calculated:

* $`P_i`$: probability of the identification of the parameter set used in the generation of the synthetic data.
* $`\sigma _{par}^{max}`$: maximum of the relative standard deviations of the regression coefficients ($`\sigma _{par}^{max}=max\{\sigma (m_k)/|m_k|\}`$).
* $`\mathrm{\Delta }=𝒟^2(N_p)𝒟^2(N_p+1)`$ and its standard deviation $`\sigma _\mathrm{\Delta }`$.
* $`S=(\mathrm{\Delta }_{obs}\mathrm{\Delta }_{test})/\sigma _\mathrm{\Delta }`$, the significance of the $`N_p+1`$ versus the $`N_p`$ parameter fits.

The results of the above test on data set $`C`$ are shown in Table 5.

We see that the two parameter regressions are undoubtedly very significant in all test quantities. Furthermore, a little closer examination of the three and four parameter regressions leads to the conclusion that these higher parameter formulae are also significant (although the four parameter one might be close to the detection limit). The present data render any further increase of the parameter number to be statistically insignificant. This result is basically in line with the conclusion of KJ96, although here we get $`A_3`$ and $`\phi _{51}`$ for the higher parameters, whereas in KJ96 we obtained $`\phi _{31}`$. This difference is attributed to the smaller data set used in KJ96 and to the interrelations between the Fourier parameters, already mentioned at the beginning of this section. We return to the compatibility of this work and that of KJ96 in Sect. 4.

In column 5 the $`\mathrm{\Delta }_{test}`$ values are positive, although we would expect zero, since at any $`N_p`$ the higher parameter regressions fit only the noise, which should give zero $`\mathrm{\Delta }_{test}`$ on the average, because this quantity is calculated from the unbiased estimates of the standard deviations (see Eq. (1)). The reason why we get small positive values is that in the $`N_p+1`$ parameter search, those parameter combinations are selected which yield the smallest dispersion from the ones which employ $`N_p+1`$ parameters from the first 10 Fourier components. Therefore, there is a better chance to get some decrease in the dispersion then if we had only one additional component to use in the $`N_p+1`$ parameter fit.

We note that if we did not use noise in the Fourier parameters, we would reach the same conclusion about the parameter number, although with an even higher significance.

Formulae obtained for $`M_V`$ with various parameter numbers from data sets $`A`$, $`B`$ and $`C`$ are given in Table 6.

The $`10\%`$ difference between the coefficients of $`\mathrm{log}P`$ of the formulae derived on sets $`A`$ and $`B`$ can be accounted for by the errors in the coefficients (the $`1\sigma `$ relative errors of the regression coefficients are $`4\%`$ for both data sets). The two formulae yield also very similar $`M_V`$ values. A comparison made on a sample of $`500`$ stars compiled from Galactic field and cluster variables, gave $`0.011`$ mag for the standard deviation of the differences between the $`M_V`$ values computed from these formulae. Considering the total range of $`M_V`$ (which is $`0.6`$ mag for this large data set and $`0.4`$ mag for the clusters), this standard deviation corresponds to compatibility at the 2% level. For data set $`C`$ we see changes in the coefficients with the variation of the parameter number. This is primarily due to the interrelations among the Fourier parameters. As is expected, the differences between the various $`M_V`$ estimates obtained from the high- and low-parameter formulae are rather small. By using the above large data set, we get $`\sigma =0.012`$ and $`0.008`$, if we compare the two and three, and three and four parameter formulae, respectively. Since — as we have already seen — the three and possibly even the four parameter formulae are significant, this comparison gives some indication on the accuracy to be gained by the application of the high parameter formulae (however, this gain is partially counterbalanced by the statistical errors of $`M_V`$ — see Appendix A). This level of change in $`M_V`$ is not very important in simple applications (e.g., in distance modulus calculations), but could have interesting consequences when empirical evolutionary tracks are attempted to be calculated.

Fig. 3 displays the correlation between the observed and calculated magnitudes. (It is noted that M107 and M4 are not plotted. For M107 the reddened distance modulus is equal to that of M3. The cluster M4 is omitted, because plotting would result in a large crowding in the figure due to its high observed brightness.) The calculated magnitudes are obtained from the three parameter fit to the magnitude averaged values. This yields the following formula for data set $`C`$

$`V_0=1.880\mathrm{log}P0.971A_1+0.909A_3+const..`$ (5)
The slight difference between this and the corresponding formula in Table 6 is due to the different ways of averaging of the observed magnitudes. The above formula fits the data with $`\sigma =0.040`$ mag. The nice correlation with the variables of the individual clusters is very comforting. This shows that with a good chance, no important physical dependence in $`V_0`$ (or in $`M_V`$) are missed in the above derivation. The method could have been a failure if $`M_V`$ were a single function of \[Fe/H\] and, at the same time, the clusters were chemically homogeneous. This situation would lead to ‘truly horizontal branches’, which would mean the absorption of all physical parameters into the (incorrect) distance moduli and the lost of any correlation with the Fourier parameters. Both chemical inhomogeneities and complex parameter dependence of $`M_V`$ prevent this situation from happening. Since most of the clusters have reasonably small \[Fe/H\] dispersion, we can conclude that the empirical \[Fe/H\]—$`M_V`$ relation is rather loose, as has already been shown in KJ96.

### 2.2 The $`PLC`$ relation for $`B`$, $`V`$

We use the data sets given in Table 7 to find the optimum formula for the reddening-free quantity $`W`$. By following the same procedure as in the $`M_V`$ fit, outliers are omitted iteratively. The list of the 7 stars which were left out from the final samples is given in Table 4. On the basis of the small number of outliers we find similar ‘applicability ratio’ of the derived formulae as in the case of the $`M_V`$ fit. The variation of the fitting accuracy as a function of the parameter number is shown in Fig. 4. The single parameter nature of $`W`$ seems to be very strongly indicated. This result is at variance with the conclusion of KJ97, who argued for the significance of a 3 parameter relation. The reason of this contradiction is that KJ97 used considerably smaller sample with larger observational noise (e.g., photographic data for N3201 and M107). This resulted in a somewhat biased selection of the outliers, and a concomitant overestimation of the parameter number. Nevertheless, as we shall see in Sect. 4, the derived formulae give similar results.

Table 8 shows that data sets $`a`$ and $`b`$ yield almost the same single parameter formulae. In the last row we also display the two parameter formula which might be suspected as the highest parameter relation allowed by the present data set for $`W_0`$. Although the absolute change in $`𝒟`$ is similar to the one observed between the three and four parameter formulae for $`M_V`$, here the statistical significance is even lower, because of the more than a factor of two lower number of data. Indeed, repeating the same type of numerical test as in the case of $`M_V`$, we get a significance ratio of $`S=1.7`$. Furthermore, for the occurrence rate $`P_i`$ of the two parameter formula and for the largest parameter error $`\sigma _{par}^{max}`$ we obtain 55% and 39%, respectively. All these results leave only a rather slim chance for the statistical significance of the two parameter formula for $`W_0`$. In addition, if the predicted $`W_0`$ values are compared on the large data set mentioned above, they agree with $`\sigma =0.014`$ mag standard deviation. This, with the total ranges of $`0.8`$ and $`0.7`$ mag for $`W_0`$ on the field & cluster, and cluster variables, respectively, corresponds to compatibility at the 2% level. Therefore, in the following we consider only the single parameter formula as a statistically significant relation.

The strong correlation of the period with $`W`$ for the individual cluster variables is shown in Fig. 5. As for the $`M_V`$ regression, we emphasize the importance of this correlation from the point of view of the separation of the dependence of $`W`$ on the period, from that of on the distance modulus.

The single parameter dependence of $`W_0`$ establishes a period-luminosity-color $`(PLC)`$ relation for RRab stars. The existence of this type of relation is very basic for Cepheids (e.g., Udalski et al. 1999). On the other hand, for RR Lyrae stars, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that the existence of this relation is exhibited and an accurate formula is given. Other works devoted to the study of the relations between the main physical and observed parameters of RR Lyrae stars have also revealed certain aspects of the $`M_V`$ and $`W_0`$ relations derived in this paper. For example, Nemec, Nemec & Lutz (1994) found $`M_V`$$`\mathrm{log}P`$ – \[Fe/H\] relations, whereas Castellani & De Santis (1994) claimed the existence of a $`\mathrm{log}T_{\mathrm{eff}}`$$`\mathrm{log}P`$$`A_B`$ (blue amplitude) relation. Sandage (1981) derived a $`P`$$`L`$$`A`$ relation by combining theoretical and empirical data. The results given in this paper are distinct from the above ones, because our formulae have been derived by using large data sets, which are based on the best currently available observations. In addition, our approach is completely empirical, without resorting to theoretical assumptions and few parameter (e.g., period, $`B`$ amplitude) searches. As a result, the formulae are more accurate. For example, the relative accuracy of the coefficient of $`\mathrm{log}P`$ in the expression for $`W_0`$ derived from data set $`c`$ is $`2.4\%`$ (for a complete error formula see Appendix A).

From the formula of Table 8 and Eq. (5), one can derive a relation for the intrinsic color index $`(BV)_0`$. When the zero point is fitted with the one established for $`(BV)_0`$ by KJ97, we get

$`(BV)_0=0.189\mathrm{log}P0.313A_1+0.293A_3+0.460.`$ (6)
A more conservative expression is obtained if the two parameter counterpart of Eq. (5) in conjunction with the above single parameter formula for $`W_0`$ is applied

$`(BV)_0=0.209\mathrm{log}P0.187A_1+0.453.`$ (7)
This second formula is given to aid those applications in which only limited information is available on the light curves and when the goal is to compute average quantities on large samples or when one needs to combine less accurate data with the above expressions (e.g., reddening estimations). In any case, Eqs. (6) and (7) yield very similar results. By repeating the same compatibility test as for $`M_V`$, we obtain $`\sigma =0.004`$ mag for the standard deviation of the differences of the $`(BV)_0`$ values obtained from these two equations. With the total $`(BV)_0`$ range of $`0.11`$ mag for the RRab stars, this result implies compatibility at the 4% level. A similar conclusion can be drawn if a comparison is made between the present formulae and the one given in KJ97 (see Sect. 4 for details).

### 2.3 The $`PLC`$ relation for $`V`$, $`I`$

In KJ97 we made an attempt to derive a formula also for the other reddening-free quantity $`X`$, which contains $`V`$ and $`I`$. However, due to the small amount of direct cluster data available then, we combined those data with the ones for field stars, through the application of the $`W_0`$ and $`(BV)_0`$ formulae. This is certainly not an independent derivation of the formula for $`X_0`$. Here we are in the position to give a direct estimate on $`X_0`$, based solely on cluster variables.

Because the available data are still not too extensive, we cannot make tests on independent data sets as we did in the case of $`W_0`$. By proceeding exactly in the same way as in the case of the $`W`$ fit, we obtain the result shown in Fig. 6 (for the list of the outliers, see Table 4). It is clear that the single parameter dependence of $`X_0`$ is very strongly suggested. For the 109 variables we get

$`X_0=2.513\mathrm{log}P+const..`$ (8)
This expression fits the data with $`\sigma =0.037`$ mag. The error of the coefficient of $`\mathrm{log}P`$ is only $`3\%`$ (see Appendix A for the complete error formula). To exhibit the tightness of the correlation of Eq. (8) with the observations, Fig. 7 displays the fit to the variables of the individual clusters.

Due to the single parameter dependence of $`X_0`$, the present result is in conflict with the one given in KJ97. We recall the same facts as in the case of $`W_0`$ to explain this contradiction (see also next section for further discussion of the question related to the number of parameters in $`X_0`$ and $`W_0`$).

In the same way as in the case of $`(BV)_0`$, the following expressions can be derived for the intrinsic color index

$`(VI)_0=0.253\mathrm{log}P0.388A_1+0.364A_3+0.648,`$ (9)
or, by using the two parameter formula for $`V_0`$

$`(VI)_0=0.278\mathrm{log}P0.232A_1+0.640.`$ (10)
Assuming standard extinction ratios (see Sect. 2), the zero points in these formulae are consistent with those of $`(BV)_0`$ in the sense that they yield the same reddening with $`\sigma _{\mathrm{\Delta }E(BV)}=0.023`$ for the clusters with simultaneous $`B`$, $`V`$ and $`I`$ observations ($`\mathrm{\Delta }E(BV)`$ denotes the difference between the reddenings obtained from the $`BV`$ and $`VI`$ indices). It is suspected that at least part of this large scatter is due to zero point errors of the various color indices in the individual clusters. Color indices calculated from Eqs. (9) and (10) agree with $`\sigma =0.005`$ mag.

## 3 The problem of $`T_{\mathrm{eff}}`$ consistency

The derived expressions for the dereddened colors can be utilized in calculating effective temperatures. By using the stellar atmosphere models of Castelli, Gratton & Kurucz (1997), simple linear formulae can be obtained for $`\mathrm{log}T_{\mathrm{eff}}`$ as a function of the color index, gravity $`\mathrm{log}g`$ and metal abundance \[M/H\]. For further reference, here we repeat these formula from Kovács & Walker (1999)

$`\mathrm{log}T_{\mathrm{eff}}`$ $`=`$ $`3.88400.3219(BV)_0+0.0167\mathrm{log}g+`$ (11)
$`+`$ $`0.0070[\mathrm{M}/\mathrm{H}],`$
$`\mathrm{log}T_{\mathrm{eff}}`$ $`=`$ $`3.90200.2451(VI)_0+0.0099\mathrm{log}g+`$ (12)
$``$ $`0.0012[\mathrm{M}/\mathrm{H}].`$
The range of validity of these formulae covers the parameter regime of cluster RRab stars, in particular, $`2.5<`$\[M/H\]$`<0.5`$. Therefore, the various temperature estimates are to be compared on the set of 383 cluster variables with $`V`$ observations (see Table 1). It is mentioned that while Eq. (12) fits the corresponding model values with $`\sigma (\mathrm{log}T_{\mathrm{eff}})=0.001`$, for Eq. (11) this accuracy is only $`0.003`$. Better fitting formulae with $`(BV)_0`$ can be obtained by choosing narrower parameter ranges. Nevertheless, these formulae are very similar to Eq. (11), and therefore, it is not surprising that tests made with them have led to the same conclusions as the ones to be discussed below.

By using Eqs. (6) and (9), the \[Fe/H\] formula of JK96 and the expression given for $`\mathrm{log}g`$ by Kovács & Walker (1999), we can compute the temperature for the two color indices and compare the two estimates. The result is shown in Fig. 8. A similar correlation is obtained if Eqs. (7) and (10) are used for the color indices. The standard deviation of the $`\mathrm{log}T_{\mathrm{eff}}`$ differences is $`0.0026`$ mag. Considering the total range of $`0.04`$ mag, this size of dispersion does not seem to be small enough, although it is worth recalling the accuracy of the $`T_{\mathrm{eff}}`$ values obtained from the $`BV`$ index (see above). More importantly, it is well known and is also clearly exhibited in Eq. (11) that $`T_{\mathrm{eff}}(BV)`$ has a strong \[M/H\] dependence. Since this quantity is a function of $`\phi _{31}`$, we would expect some dependence on this Fourier phase to be observable at least in one of the color indices. Although the effect is small, the absence of $`\phi _{31}`$ is somewhat puzzling. We suspect that noise, limited \[Fe/H\] range of the globular clusters and delicately distributed $`\phi _{31}`$ dependence between the two colors are responsible for this contradiction. In the following we show a derivation of the relation between the two color indices, which might support the above conjecture.

The idea is to avoid distance-dependent quantities, such as $`X`$, and utilize more accurate multicolor observations. It is easy to see that the quantity $`Q=VI1.24(BV)`$ is reddening-free (assuming standard extinction ratios — see Sect. 2), independent of the distance, and enables us to use the more accurate data on field RRab stars. By employing the sample of 25 variables from KJ97, with the omission of the outlier SS Leo, the following formula is obtained

$`Q=0.477+0.397\mathrm{log}P0.060\phi _{31}.`$ (13)
This expression fits the 24 variables with $`\sigma =0.011`$ mag. The single parameter regression contains the period and yields $`\sigma =0.016`$ mag. Because of the low number of data points, higher order regressions are not considered, but they all settle down at around $`\sigma =0.0095`$ mag. The relative errors of the regression coefficients in the above equation are 7% and 18%, for the coefficients of $`\mathrm{log}P`$ and $`\phi _{31}`$, respectively.

Adding cluster variables to this sample increases the noise considerably. Fig. 9 shows the regression for this large sample. (The variables of M4 are omitted, because of their specific extinction ratios — see KJ97 and references therein.) In spite of the large scatter, this sample of 121 stars yields a very similar formula, basically with the same parameters: $`Q=0.431+0.409\mathrm{log}P0.051\phi _{31}`$. The significance of the two parameter formula is also very similar to the one obtained on the sample of field stars. The large scatter in this figure draws the attention to the importance of accurate photometry if more sophisticated problems, such as the one here, are studied. The majority of the outlying points in the upper left and middle right parts of the figure correspond to variables from IC4499 and N1851, respectively. Reddening could not be the cause of this scatter, because IC4499 has a relatively large reddening of $`E_{BV}=0.22`$, whereas N1851 has a low one of $`E_{BV}=0.03`$. The cause of the discrepancy apparent in these clusters is not known. Less accurate photometry with zero point errors, as well as peculiar extinction ratios are suspected to be the main possible agents in the systematic displacements of most of the variables of these clusters. For example, zero point errors of $`0.02`$ mag in the color indices might easily cause such a discrepancy.

Fig. 10 shows the improvement of the compatibility of the temperatures derived from the different colors, if Eq. (13) is used to calculate $`VI`$. Although some of the metal rich stars have become ‘overcorrected’, there is a definite improvement, indicating that the predicted $`\phi _{31}`$ dependence from the theoretical temperatures and the one obtained from the above, completely independent derivation agree fairly well. However, it is also noted that because $`(VI)_0`$ is not calculated independently, the temperatures in this figure are highly correlated, which also decreases the scatter. We mention that metal rich stars are very sensitive to the contribution of $`\phi _{31}`$ in the color relation $`Q`$. For example, switching to the relation for $`Q`$ obtained from the larger sample (see above), metal rich stars become even less discrepant.

In closing this section we emphasize that the above test has been used to demonstrate only that there is a hope to derive consistent sets of equations for both color indices, but it is not claimed at this stage that we found the final formulae. The more definitive statement about this rather delicate issue may come only when additional, more accurate cluster data will become available.

## 4 Distance moduli, reddenings, comparison with KJ96 and KJ97

Average values and standard deviations of $`E_{BV}`$ and those of the various distance moduli are summarized in Table 9. Abundances — computed by the formula of JK96 — are also listed for completeness. Except for the calculation of \[Fe/H\], data sets without the outliers, as given in Table 4 were used. For \[Fe/H\] we employed the full set $`C`$ of Table 3. The outliers (which were discrepant in respect of the average cluster \[Fe/H\] values) are listed in the note to Table 9. These variables have been omitted in the calculation of the averages and standard deviations. Reddening has always been calculated from the $`B`$ and $`V`$ colors and not from the less extensive (and probably also less accurate) $`I`$ data. Because of the still debated issue of the luminosity of the RR Lyrae stars, we show only relative distances, all normalized to zero for IC4499.

As we have already noted in our former papers, and is also clearly seen in Table 9, in some clusters the derived metallicity values exhibit considerable scatter. It is worth noting that recent spectroscopic analysis of the horizontal branch stars in M13 by Behr et al. (1999) also revealed substantial inhomogeneities. It is seen that most of the clusters have metallicities around $`1.5`$ and there are only a few with \[Fe/H\]\>$`1.0`$ or \[Fe/H\]\<$`1.9`$. This distribution of \[Fe/H\] signals some warning in respect of the unbiased coverage of the possible evolutionary stages by the present sample. Specifically, one should exercise some caution in extrapolating the results of this paper to more metal abundant variables, such as the ones observed in the Galactic field.

Reddening could also be inhomogeneous, with an observed overall standard deviation of $`0.014`$ mag. Because observational noise is also present in the data, the true dispersion of $`E_{BV}`$ is smaller than this formal value. A more accurate upper limit on the overall reddening dispersion can be derived with the aid of some basic equations connecting various noise properties. Denoting the standard deviations of the residuals of the $`V_0`$, $`W_0`$ and $`(BV)_0`$ regressions by $`\sigma (V)`$, $`\sigma (W)`$ and $`\sigma (BV)`$ respectively, it is easy to see that the following relations hold for these quantities

$`\sigma ^2(V)`$ $`=`$ $`\sigma _V^2+R_V^2\sigma _E^2,`$ (14)
$`\sigma ^2(W)`$ $`=`$ $`(1+R_V)^2\sigma _V^2+R_V^2\sigma _B^2`$ (15)
$``$ $`2R_V(1+R_V)K^{},`$
$`\sigma ^2(BV)`$ $`=`$ $`\sigma _V^2+\sigma _B^2+\sigma _E^22K^{},`$ (16)
where $`K^{}=K\sigma _V\sigma _B`$, $`K`$ and the other quantities have the same meaning as in Eq. (3). Elimination of $`\sigma _V`$ and $`\sigma _B`$ from these equations results in the following expression for $`\sigma _E`$

$`\sigma _E^2`$ $`=`$ $`{\displaystyle \frac{(1+2R_V)\sigma ^2(V)+R_V^2\sigma ^2(BV)\sigma ^2(W)}{2R_V^2(1+R_V)}}`$ (17)
$``$ $`{\displaystyle \frac{K^{}}{R_V(1+R_V)}}.`$
Although the correlation coefficient $`K`$ is not known, it can be safely assumed that it is positive (e.g., random background contamination influences both colors in a similar way). From Tables 6 and 8 we get $`\sigma (V)=0.040`$ and $`\sigma (W)=0.041`$. A direct fit to the observed $`(BV)`$ values yields $`\sigma (BV)=0.014`$. These values and the $`K^{}>0`$ condition leads to the upper limit of $`0.012`$ mag for $`\sigma _E`$. This constraint yields also a lower limit for $`\sigma _V`$. From Eq. (14) we get $`\sigma _V>0.018`$ mag. (This latter quantity is very sensitive to the value of $`\sigma _E`$. The value quoted was obtained from the formal value of $`\sigma _E=0.0115`$.) These limits are average values, deviations from them might occur in the individual clusters.

In comparing the $`d_W`$ and $`d_X`$ distance moduli, we see that substantial differences might exist between them. Unfortunately, these true distance moduli derived from medium wavelength optical photometry are rather sensitive to zero point errors. Indeed, if the zero points are changed by $`\mathrm{\Delta }V`$, $`\mathrm{\Delta }B`$ and $`\mathrm{\Delta }I`$, assuming standard extinction ratios, the difference between the derived distance moduli from $`W`$ and $`X`$ becomes $`d_Wd_X=5.5\mathrm{\Delta }V3.1\mathrm{\Delta }B2.5\mathrm{\Delta }I`$. With the commonly admitted zero point errors of $`0.01`$ mag, it is very easy to accumulate a difference of $`0.1`$ mag between the two types of distance moduli.

As we have already noted at the beginning, the present data sets are much more extensive then the ones used in our previous studies. Therefore, it is a matter of interest to check the difference between the old and new formulae. For the following reasons, in this comparison we restrict ourselves only to $`M_V`$ and $`(BV)_0`$. For the $`VI`$ index the data are still limited and the result of the comparison depends on whether we rely solely on the fit obtained from cluster variables, or incorporate the data available on field stars (as it was done in KJ97). Therefore, it is not possible to make a consistent comparison. For $`(VK)_0`$, there are only field data available with sufficient accuracy. In addition, because of their limited number, the result depends on the selection of the outliers. Therefore, we do not deal with this color either.

The comparison for $`M_V`$ and $`(BV)_0`$ is made on the same large data set of 500 stars which was already employed for similar tests in Sect. 2. The results are displayed in Fig. 11. We can conclude that both quantities were reasonably well approximated already in KJ96 and KJ97.

## 5 Discussion and conclusions

In an effort to utilize the steadily increasing number of light curves accumulated during the various photometric surveys and ccd works on individual clusters, we revisited the problem of absolute magnitude and intrinsic color calibrations in terms of the Fourier parameters of the light curves in $`V`$ color. The amount of data used in this paper is more than a factor of two larger than the one used in our similar studies conducted a few years ago. The increase of the data base is beneficial for the following reasons: (i) the larger data sets enable us to derive statistically more significant relations; (ii) the number of parameters entering in the finally adopted formulae does not depend on the omission of the outliers, whose treatment could be a delicate problem in the case of small sample size; (iii) with the larger number of variables, it is hoped that there is a better representation of the various evolutionary stages and also physical parameters, most importantly luminosity levels and abundances. It is this latter point which is perhaps the most crucial in the applicability of the derived formulae. In the present sample most of the data concentrate around \[Fe/H\]$`1.5`$ and only a few clusters occupy the extremes close to \[Fe/H\]$`=1.0`$ and $`2.0`$. Therefore, some degree of caution is necessary when extrapolating the present results to variables with different metallicities, and especially beyond the high metallicity end (e.g., metal rich Galactic field variables).

The effective temperatures calculated from the expressions for $`BV`$ and $`VI`$ agree with $`\sigma (\mathrm{\Delta }\mathrm{log}T_{\mathrm{eff}})=0.003`$. The lack of higher level compatibility is due to the absence of phase dependence in our formulae which is required by the explicit \[Fe/H\] dependence in $`T_{\mathrm{eff}}`$, predicted by stellar atmosphere models and by our formulae derived earlier for \[Fe/H\]. The test presented in Sect. 3 suggests that the limited \[Fe/H\] coverage of the cluster data together with the still sufficiently high observational noise in the cluster data, are probably the main sources of the lack of better agreement between the various temperature estimates.

For the absolute magnitude $`M_V`$, a highly significant three parameter formula has been derived with period $`P`$ and Fourier amplitudes $`A_1`$ and $`A_3`$. There is also an indication for the presence of the Fourier phase $`\phi _{51}`$, although with a much lower significance. In certain applications (e.g., in computing averages on large representative samples) there are very little differences between the high and low parameter formulae. In the case of less accurate data, one can use even the two parameter formula as it is given in Table 6.

For the reddening-free quantities $`W=VR_V(BV)`$ and $`X=VR_I(VI)`$ we obtained basically single parameter formulae. Although these $`PLC`$ relations are rather tight and well defined, it is worth remembering that this is not entirely consistent with the requirement posed by stellar atmosphere models (see above).

Although the accurate value of the observational noise is not known, from the standard deviations of the residuals of the various regressions we may have estimates both on the observational noise and also on the dispersion of the reddening. For the latter quantity an upper limit was obtained, with $`\sigma _E<0.012`$ mag. This value puts a lower limit on the average observational noise, giving $`\sigma _V>0.018`$ mag. From this result and the fit of the reddening- and distance-free quantity $`Q=VI1.24(BV)`$ we can conclude that although the presently available ccd photometric data on cluster variables allow us to derive more accurate empirical relations than ever before, the average colors (mostly due to crowded field effects) may still be not accurate enough to address more sophisticated questions, such as the higher level compatibility of the temperature estimates obtained from various colors.

From the point of view of applicability, it is worth mentioning that the estimated probability that the present formulae give incorrect (i.e., $`3\sigma `$ discrepant) result is less than 5% (assuming that they are employed on RRab stars with stable light curves, which cover approximately the same \[Fe/H\] range as the ones in our sample). The formal statistical accuracy of the individual estimates are better than $`\sigma (M_V)0.01`$ and $`\sigma (W_0)\sigma (X_0)0.005`$. Therefore, these formulae are suitable (under the condition just mentioned) for the accurate calculation of relative absolute magnitudes, distance moduli and reddenings. When combined with stellar atmosphere models, the formulae are very useful in mapping the instability strip (Jurcsik 1998) and comparing with the predictions of pulsation models (Kolláth, Buchler & Feuchtinger 2000). Further improvement of the formulae requires more accurate cluster data together with a better sampling at the low and high metallicity limits. Considering the steady progress in cluster photometry, we think that these goals are reachable in the very near future.

###### Acknowledgements.

We are grateful to Christine Clement, Janusz Kaluzny and Arkadiusz Olech for allowing us use of their data in the present analysis. Stimulating discussions with Shashi Kanbur on the statistical aspects are acknowledged. The supports of the following grants are acknowledged: otka t$``$024022, t$``$026031 and t$``$030954.

## Appendix A

In the following we give a summary of the statistical error formulae for $`M_V`$, $`W_0`$ and $`X_0`$. Starting with the two parameter expression for $`M_V`$ (see the 3rd row of Table 6), assuming that the period is error-free, the variance can be written in the following form

$`\sigma _{M_V}^2=0.805^2\sigma _{A_1}^2+\sigma ^2{\displaystyle \underset{i,j=1}{\overset{3}{}}}K_{ij}p_ip_j,`$ (18)
where $`\sigma =0.0416`$, $`p_1=1`$, $`p_2=\mathrm{log}P+0.22488`$, $`p_3=A_10.32161`$, and the symmetric correlation matrix $`K_{ij}`$ is given in Table A.1. We see that the $`K_{1i}`$ elements are zero (lower than $`10^5`$), because the corresponding sample averages have been subtracted from the parameters. In the same way as above, for the three parameter expression of $`M_V`$ (see the 4th row of Table 6), we get

$`\sigma _{M_V}^2=1.158^2\sigma _{A_1}^2+0.821^2\sigma _{A_3}^2+\sigma ^2{\displaystyle \underset{i,j=1}{\overset{4}{}}}K_{ij}p_ip_j,`$ (19)
where $`\sigma =0.0399`$, $`p_1`$$`p_3`$ are the same as above, $`p_4=A_30.09926`$. Table A.2 displays the correlation matrix.

Because $`W_0`$ and $`X_0`$ depend only on the period, their error formulae are simpler

$`\sigma _{W_0}^2`$ $`=`$ $`0.0405^2[0.00581+2.113(\mathrm{log}P+0.22395)^2],`$ (20)
$`\sigma _{X_0}^2`$ $`=`$ $`0.0366^2[0.00917+4.311(\mathrm{log}P+0.23329)^2].`$ (21)