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# Cepheid, Tully-Fisher and SNIa Distances.

## 1. Status of the $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$-CDM Cosmology

One major motivation for studying Hubble’s Constant is the complicated nature of the current standard model in cosmology, $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$-CDM. In this model, to order of magnitude, $`\mathrm{\Omega }_{baryon}\mathrm{\Omega }_{CDM}\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda }`$ and this seems unnatural. The coincidence between the CDM and Baryon densities worried some authors (Peebles 1984, Shanks 1985) when CDM was first postulated. The coincidence between $`\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda }`$ and the others worried many more (eg Dolgov, 1983, Peebles and Ratra, 1988 and Wetterich, 1988). These fine-tuning problems of the standard model are compounded by the fact that the inflation model on which the standard model sits, was partly based on a fine-tuning argument, the flatness-problem; to begin by eliminating one fine tuning problem only to end up with several gives the appearance of circular reasoning!

Shanks (1985, 1991, 1999, 2001) noted that a simpler model immediately became available if H0 actually lay below 50 kms-1 Mpc-1. An inflationary model with $`\mathrm{\Omega }_{baryon}`$=1 is then better placed to escape the baryon nucleosynthesis constraint. Simultaneously, the low value of H0 means that the X-ray gas in the Coma cluster increases towards the Coma virial mass and the lifetime of an Einstein-de Sitter Universe extends to become compatible with the ages of the oldest stars. Now this model does predict a first acoustic peak in the CMB anisotropy at around l$``$330 which disagrees with the position of the first peak at l=220$`\pm `$10 found by the Boomerang experiment (Netterfield et al, 2002). However, the above fine-tuning problems of the $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$-CDM model plus the historical tendency for later data to overturn early confirmations of previous ‘concordance’ models such as the isocurvature model in the early 1980’s and the SCDM model in the early 1990’s suggests that it may be best, (a) to wait for MAP to confirm the Boomerang results before abandoning other models and (b) to continue to study Hubble’s Constant.

## 2. A New Era for Determining H0

Some 25 galaxies have had Cepheids detected by HST. Seventeen of these were observed by the HST Distance Scale Key Project (Freedman et al, 1994). Seven were observed in galaxies with SNIa by Sandage and collaborators (eg Sandage et al, 1996) and M96 in the Leo I Group was observed by Tanvir et al (1995). In Fig. 1 we use these data to update the comparison of I-band TF distances of Pierce & Tully (1992) with HST Cepheid distances. As can be seen, the result implies that TF distance moduli at Virgo underestimated by $``$22$`\pm `$5%. This reduces Tully-Fisher estimates of H0 from $``$85 to $``$65kms-1Mpc-1 (Giovanelli et al, 1997, Shanks 1997, Shanks, 1999, Sakai et al, 1999). The correlation of Cepheid residuals with line-width suggests TF distances may be Malmquist biased - possibly implying a bigger TF scale error at larger distances. This clear problem for TF distances, which previously has been the ‘gold standard’ of secondary distance indicators, warns that errors in the extragalactic distance scale may still be seriously underestimated!

## 3. NGC7790 Cepheid Metallicity Dependence?

New JKT 1.0m + CTIO 0.9m + UKIRT UBVK photometry of Cepheid Open Clusters by Hoyle et al. (2001) has uncovered an anomaly in the NGC7790 UBV 2-colour diagram, in that the F stars in the cluster show a strong UV excess with respect to zero-age main sequence stars (see Fig. 2). The result is confirmed by independent photometric data (Fry, 1997, Fry and Carney, 1997) as shown in Fig. 7b of Hoyle et al (2001). If the UV excess is caused by metallicity then NGC7790 would have \[Fe/H\]$``$ -1.5 ! To keep the Galactic Cepheid P-L relation as tight as previously observed implies that Cepheids may have a stronger metallicity dependence, $`\mathrm{\Delta }M0.66\mathrm{\Delta }[Fe/H]`$, than previously expected, in the sense that low metallicity Cepheids are intrinsically fainter. Currently we are obtaining metallicities for the F stars in NGC7790 in order to distinguish this interpretation from other explanations such as non-standard dust reddening towards this open cluster.

## 4. HST Cepheid Metallicity Dependence

Meanwhile, Allen & Shanks (2001) have found an $`3\sigma `$ correlation between dispersion around the Cepheid P-L relation and galaxy metallicity for HST Cepheid galaxies (see Fig. 3). This again suggests that the dependence of the Cepheid P-L relation on metallicity may be more complex than previously expected.

Allen & Shanks (2001) also obtain Cepheid distances via truncated maximum likelihood P-L fits to account for magnitude incompleteness caused by the above, non-negligible, dispersion in the HST P-L relations. They found that Cepheid galaxy distances at the limit of HST reach are too low. The higher than expected P-L dispersion for distant, metal-rich galaxies accentuates this effect. The conclusion is that current HST Cepheid distance moduli may be underestimated by more than 0.5 mag at the redshift of Virgo and Fornax due to both metallicity and statistical incompleteness bias. The TF distances discussed above are then underestimates by approximately 1 magnitude.

Eight HST Cepheid galaxies also have Type Ia distances. Correcting the Cepheid scale for metallicity and incompleteness bias as above and then using these distances to derive peak luminosities using the SNIa data from Gibson et al (2000), implies a strong correlation between Type Ia peak luminosity and metallicity. Such a scatter in SNIa luminosities could easily be disguised by magnitude selection effects at moderate redshifts. At higher redshift the correlation is in the right direction to explain away the need for a cosmological constant in the Supernova Hubble Diagram results, since galaxies at high redshift might be expected to have lower metallicity. Thus the conclusion is that if Cepheids have a strong metallicity dependence then so have SNIa and therefore SNIa estimates of q0 and H0 may require significant corrections for metallicity.

## 5. Conclusions - Implications for H0 and SNIa Cosmology

Our conclusions are as follows:-

* Key Project HST Cepheid distances imply Tully-Fisher distances at Virgo/Fornax are underestimated by $`22\pm 5`$%, reducing H0 from $``$85 to $``$65kms-1Mpc-1.
* TF distances may be Malmquist biased, suggesting there may be a bigger TF scale error at larger distances.
* If the UV excess of F stars in open cluster NGC7790 is caused by low metallicity then Cepheids have a strong metallicity dependence, $`\mathrm{\Delta }M0.66\mathrm{\Delta }[Fe/H]`$.
* Current HST Cepheid distances may be significantly underestimated at Virgo/Fornax redshifts due to metallicity and magnitude incompleteness bias, implying that values of H$`{}_{0}{}^{}<`$50kms-1Mpc-1 may still not be ruled out.
* If Cepheids have a strong metallicity dependence then so have SNIa . Thus significant metallicity corrections may need to be applied to the Type Ia Hubble Diagram before reliable estimates of q0 or H0 can be made.

## References

Allen, P.D. & Shanks, T. 2001, MNRAS, submitted, astro-ph/0102450

Dolgov, A.D., 1983, In ‘The Very Early Universe’, Eds. Gibbons, G.W., Hawking, S., & Siklos, S.T.C. CUP, pp. 449-458

Freedman, W. L. et al., 1994, ApJ, 427, 628.

Fry, A.M., 1997, PhD thesis, Univ. of North Carolina.

Fry, A.M. & Carney, B.W., 1997, AJ, 113, 1073.

Gibson, B. K. et al, 1999, ApJ, 512, 48.

Giovanelli, R., Haynes, M.P., da Costa, L.N., Freudling, W., Salzer, J.J., Wegner, G., 1997, ApJ, 477, L1.

Hoyle, F., Shanks, T. & Tanvir, N.R., 2001 MNRAS submitted, astro-ph/0002521.

Netterfield, B. et al., 2002, ApJ, 501, 604.

Peebles, P.J.E., 1984, ApJ, 284, 439.

Peebles, P.J.E. & Ratra, B. 1988, ApJ, 325, L17.

Pierce, M.J. and Tully, R.B., 1992 ApJ, 387, 47.

Sakai, S. et al, 1999, ApJ, 523, 540.

Sandage, A.R., Saha, A., Tammann, G. A., Labhardt, L., Panagia, N., Macchetto, F. D., ApJ, 1996, 460, L15.

Shanks, T., 1985, Vistas in Astronomy, 28, 595.

Shanks, T. et al., 1991, In ‘Observational Tests of Cosmological Inflation’, Eds. Shanks, T., Banday, A.J., Ellis, R.S., Frenk, C.S. & Wolfendale, A.W. pp. 205-210 Dordrecht:Kluwer.

Shanks, T., 1997, MNRAS, 290, L77.

Shanks, T., 1999, In Harmonising Cosmic Distance Scales, eds Egret D. & Heck, A., PASP, pp. 230-234.

Shanks, T., Allen, P.D., Hoyle, F. & Tanvir, N.R., 2001, In ‘IAU Symp. 201: New Cosmological Data and the Values of the Fundamental Parameters’, Eds. Lasenby, A.N. & Wilkinson, A., San Francisco:ASP in press.

Tanvir, N. R., Shanks, T., Ferguson, H.C. & Robinson, D.R.T. 1995, Nature, 377, 27.

Wetterich, C., 1988, Nucl. Phys. B302, 645.


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# References

I. Introduction

If one puts a load or stress ($`\sigma `$) on a solid or applies a voltage across an electrical circuit, a strain in the solid or a current through the circuit develops which grows linearly (Hooke’s law or Ohm’s law) with the stress or voltage. If the external load on the system increases beyond its threshold limit ($`\sigma _c`$), the system fails: stress $`\sigma `$ drops to zero due to fracture of the solid. The same occurs when the voltage on the network exceeds its limit and the current drops to zero due to the fuse of the circuit. Similar failures occur in dielectric materials when the electric field across the sample exceeds beyond its limit, and dielectric breakdown sets in. These failures usually nucleate around the defects in the solid and the failure behavior and its statistics therefore crucially depends on the disorder or impurity distribution within the sample. These (quasi-static) failure properties of disordered solids have been studied extensively in recent years .

The dynamics of these failures in such systems are quite intriguing and is being studied very intensively these days. The critical dynamics of failure and its universality class in the democratic (global load sharing) fiber bundle model  has been established very recently . These dynamics of failure are intrinsic and induced by the successive stress redistributions due to the failure of weaker fibers. However, an important kind of dynamical failure due to fatigue  occurs in such disordered systems when the fibers have an effective probability to fail under any stress , or as the micro-cracks within the solid grow at the crack-tips with time due to chemical diffusion in the atmosphere . The system then fails under a stress less than its normal strength ($`\sigma _c`$) and the time of failure ($`\tau `$) depends on the load applied on the sample: $`\tau 0`$ for $`\sigma <\sigma _c`$ and $`\tau 0`$ for $`\sigma \sigma _c`$.

Here, we study first a phenomenological theory of crack nucleation, following Griffith , at finite temperature ($`T`$) and estimate the average failure time $`\tau `$ at any stress $`\sigma `$ less than $`\sigma _c`$. We then develop a simple model of fatigue-failure in a democratic fiber bundle model containing identical fibers of strength $`\sigma _c`$ (homogeneous bundle), where the fibers have a finite noise-induced failure probability. We have derived analytically the failure time for the bundle as a function of the applied stress ($`\sigma `$) and the noise ($`\stackrel{~}{T}`$). This result for the model is compared with that obtained for the phenomenological theory of crack nucleation at finite temperature. It is also in broad agreement with some recent experimental observations on fatigue in disordered solids . Next, we derive the avalanche size distribution in this fixed strength model analytically and find robust power law decay. The above analytic results have been confirmed through the numerical studies on the same model. Finally we consider random fiber bundles with simple, yet nontrivial, distributions of the fiber strengths. Our numerical results show that for all these fiber bundles, the average time to failure $`\tau `$ decreases exponentially as the stress level $`\sigma `$ approaches bundle’s strength $`\stackrel{~}{\sigma _c}`$ from below and the avalanche size distributions show similar power law decay. We also discuss the plausibility of this (noise-induced) failure in other similar situations. In particular, we consider the validity of our model in quantum breakdown phenomena : for example, in dielectric breakdown where the microscopic failure of the dielectric grains acquire a finite probability at any electric field due to quantum tunneling. The failure time and its variation with the strength of the external field in such a quantum failure can give us an estimate of the tunneling frequencies involved.

II. Time for fracture in the Griffith nucleation model

Griffith in 1920, equating the released elastic energy of a growing crack inside a solid with the energy of the newly created crack surfaces, came to a quantitative estimate of the fracture strength of a solid containing an already existing fixed geometry micro-crack. Assuming the linear elasticity behavior up to the breaking point of a brittle solid, the released elastic energy becomes $`E_{el}=(\sigma ^2/Y)l_0^3`$ for a three dimensional elastic solid under stress $`\sigma `$, modulus of elasticity $`Y`$, containing a micro-crack of length $`l_0`$. The corresponding surface energy $`E_s=\varphi l_0^2`$ where $`\varphi `$ denotes the (crack) surface energy density. Using the concept of energy balance, Griffith equated the differential increment in the elastic energy $`dE_{el}`$ with the corresponding surface energy increment $`dE_s`$ as the crack propagates a further length $`dl`$ and got

$$\sigma _c=\frac{\mathrm{\Omega }}{\sqrt{l_0}},\mathrm{\Omega }=\sqrt{Y\varphi }$$
(1)
for equilibrium extension of the crack. Here $`\sigma _c`$ is the amount of stress for and above which the micro-crack propagates in no time (or in a small time dependent on the sound velocity) and causes a macroscopic failure of the sample.

This quasi-static picture can be extended to fatigue behavior of crack propagation for $`\sigma <\sigma _c`$. At any stress $`\sigma `$ less than $`\sigma _c`$, the cracks can still nucleate  for a further extension at any finite temperature $`T`$ with a probability $`\mathrm{exp}[E/k_BT]`$ and consequently the sample fails within a failure time $`\tau `$ given by

$$\tau ^1\mathrm{exp}[E(l_0)/k_BT],$$
(2)
where

$$E(l_0)=\varphi l_0^2\frac{\sigma ^2}{Y}l_0^3$$
(3)
is the crack (of length $`l_0`$) nucleation energy. Here $`k_B`$ is the Boltzman factor. One can therefore express (2) as

$$\tau \mathrm{exp}[A(1\frac{\sigma ^2}{\sigma _c^2})],$$
(4)
where (the dimensionless parameter) $`A=l_0^3\sigma _c^2/(Yk_BT)`$ and $`\sigma _c`$ is given by ($`1`$). This immediately suggests that the failure time $`\tau `$ grows exponentially for $`\sigma <\sigma _c`$ and approaches infinity if the stress $`\sigma `$ is much less than $`\sigma _c`$ when the temperature $`T`$ is small, whereas $`\tau `$ becomes vanishingly small as the stress $`\sigma `$ exceeds $`\sigma _c`$.

III. Fatigue in a homogeneous fiber bundle

Fatigue in fiber bundle model was first studied by Coleman in 1958 . Thermally activated failures of fiber have recently been considered and approximate fatigue behavior has been studied . We consider here a very simple fiber bundle model with noise-induced activated failure, for which the dynamics can be analytically solved.

Let us consider a homogeneous bundle of $`N`$ fibers under load $`L(=N\sigma )`$, each having identical failure strength $`\sigma _c`$. Without any noise ($`\stackrel{~}{T}=0`$), the model is trivial: the bundle does not fail (failure time $`\tau `$ is infinity) for stress $`\sigma <\sigma _c`$ and it fails immediately ($`\tau =0`$) for $`\sigma \sigma _c`$. We now assume that each such fiber has a finite probability $`P(\sigma ,\stackrel{~}{T}`$) of failure at any stress $`\sigma `$ induced by a non-zero noise $`\stackrel{~}{T}`$:

$$P(\sigma ,\stackrel{~}{T})=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}\frac{\sigma }{\sigma _c}\mathrm{exp}\left[\frac{1}{\stackrel{~}{T}}\left(\frac{\sigma _c}{\sigma }1\right)\right],& 0\sigma \sigma _c\\ 1,& \sigma >\sigma _c\end{array}\right\}.$$
(5)
As one can see, each fiber now has got a non-vanishing probability $`P(\sigma ,\stackrel{~}{T})`$ to fail under a stress $`\sigma <\sigma _c`$ at any non-zero noise parameter $`\stackrel{~}{T}`$. It may be noted that \[unlike $`T`$ in (2) or (4)\] $`\stackrel{~}{T}`$ is a dimensionless noise parameter. $`P(\sigma ,\stackrel{~}{T})`$ increases as $`\stackrel{~}{T}`$ increases and for $`\sigma \sigma _c`$, $`P(\sigma ,\stackrel{~}{T})=1`$. Unlike at $`\stackrel{~}{T}=0`$, the bundle therefore fails at $`\sigma <\sigma _c`$ after a finite time $`\tau `$. Here we assume each fiber to have a fixed threshold $`\sigma _c`$, while their breaking probability at any $`\sigma `$ ($`<\sigma _c`$) is due to noise-activated hopping over the barrier height ($`\sigma _c\sigma `$). This differs from the earlier model studies  where the load distribution is noise induced.

(a) Failure time

At $`\stackrel{~}{T}0`$ and under any stress $`\sigma `$ ($`<\sigma _c`$), some fibers fail due to noise and the load gets shared among the surviving fibers, which in turn enhances their stress value, inducing further failure. Denoting the fraction of fibers that remain intact at time $`t`$ by $`U_t`$, a discrete time recursion relation (see ) can be written as

$$U_{t+1}=U_t\left[1P(\frac{\sigma }{U_t},\stackrel{~}{T})\right],$$
(6)
where $`\sigma /U_t=L/(NU_t)`$ is the redistributed load per fiber among the $`NU_t`$ surviving fibers at time $`t`$. In the continuum limit, we can write the above recursion relation in a differential form

$$\frac{dU}{dt}=\frac{\sigma }{\sigma _c}\mathrm{exp}\left[\frac{1}{\stackrel{~}{T}}\left(\frac{\sigma _c}{\sigma }U1\right)\right],$$
(7)
giving

$$\tau =_0^\tau 𝑑t=\frac{\sigma _c}{\sigma }\mathrm{exp}\left(\frac{1}{\stackrel{~}{T}}\right)_0^1\mathrm{exp}\left[\frac{1}{\stackrel{~}{T}}\left(\frac{\sigma _c}{\sigma }\right)U\right]𝑑U$$
(8)
or

$$\tau =\stackrel{~}{T}\mathrm{exp}\left(\frac{1}{\stackrel{~}{T}}\right)\left[\mathrm{exp}\left(\frac{\sigma _c}{\sigma \stackrel{~}{T}}\right)1\right],$$
(9)
for $`\sigma <\sigma _c`$. For $`\sigma \sigma _c`$, starting from $`U_t=1`$ at $`t=0`$, one gets $`U_{t+1}=0`$ from (5) and (6), giving $`\tau =0`$.

For small $`\stackrel{~}{T}`$ and as $`\sigma \sigma _c`$, $`\tau \stackrel{~}{T}\mathrm{exp}\left[\left(\sigma _c/\sigma 1\right)/\stackrel{~}{T}\right]`$. This failure time $`\tau `$ therefore approaches infinity as $`\stackrel{~}{T}0`$. For $`\sigma <\sigma _c`$, one gets finite failure time $`\tau `$ which decreases exponentially as $`\sigma `$ approaches $`\sigma _c`$ or as $`\stackrel{~}{T}`$ increases and $`\tau =0`$ for $`\sigma \sigma _c`$. This last feature is absent in the earlier formulations . However, all these features are very desirable and are in qualitative agreement with the recent experimental observations . This is also comparable with the phenomenological results from Griffith theory discussed in the earlier section, although the crack size effect in the Griffith theory differs from that in the fiber bundle case. Our numerical study confirms the above analytic results \[obtained using the continuum version of the recursion relation (6)\] (see Fig. 1) well.

Fig. 1. The simulation results showing variation of average failure time $`\tau `$ against (a) stress $`\sigma `$ and (b) against noise $`\stackrel{~}{T}`$, for a bundle containing $`N=10^5`$ fibers. The theoretical results are shown by dotted and dashed lines \[from eqn. (9)\]. The insets show the simulation results for the variation of the fraction $`U`$ of unbroken fibers with time $`t`$ for different $`\stackrel{~}{T}`$ values \[1.2 (cross) and 1.0 (plus)\] in (a) and $`\sigma `$ values \[0.15 (cross) and 0.12 (plus)\] in (b). The dotted and dashed lines represent the theoretical results \[eqns. (10 & 9)\].

(b) Avalanche size distribution

From the recursion relations (6) or (7), one can see that in each unit time interval a number of fibers break giving an avalanche size for the breaking. The avalanche size therefore is given by $`dU/dt`$ and during the entire failure period $`\tau `$, different sizes of avalanches take place. Solving for $`U(t)`$ from (7) one gets

$$U(t)=\frac{\sigma \stackrel{~}{T}}{\sigma _c}\mathrm{ln}\left[\frac{\tau t}{\stackrel{~}{T}\mathrm{exp}(1/\stackrel{~}{T})}+1\right],$$
(10)
employing the expression (9) for $`\tau `$. One can easily check that $`U(t)=1`$ at $`t=0`$ and $`U(t)=0`$ at $`t=\tau `$ (see Fig. 1). Also as $`tt_c\tau `$, $`U(t)`$ decays as $`\mathrm{ln}(\tau t)(\tau t)^\beta `$ with $`\beta =0_+`$ from (10). Expressing $`dU/dt`$ as the avalanche size $`m`$, one gets from (10)

$$m^1\frac{\tau t}{\stackrel{~}{T}\mathrm{exp}(1/\stackrel{~}{T})}+1\tau t,$$
(11)
for $`\stackrel{~}{T}0`$.

Here the avalanche size $`m`$ can also be interpreted as the rate of breaking ($`dU/dt`$) and it varies with time as $`(\tau t)^\gamma `$, $`\gamma =1`$ as $`tt_c\tau `$. Since $`\tau t`$ corresponds to the cumulative probability $`_m^{\mathrm{}}D(m)𝑑m`$ of avalanches beyond $`t`$, one gets

$$D(m)m^\alpha ;\alpha =2$$
(12)
for the (differential) avalanche size distribution $`D(m)`$. Also, the exponent of power law decay in eqn. (12) is independent of stress $`\sigma `$ and the noise level $`\stackrel{~}{T}`$ which has been confirmed through numerical simulations (see Fig. 2).

Fig. 2. The simulation results for the distribution $`D(m)`$ of avalanches in the bundle with $`N=10^5`$ (averaged over $`10^3`$ realisations): $`\sigma =0.2,`$ $`\stackrel{~}{T}=0.8`$ (triangle), $`\sigma =0.15,`$ $`\stackrel{~}{T}=0.8`$ (circle) and $`\sigma =0.15,`$ $`\stackrel{~}{T}=1.0`$ (square). The dashed line corresponds to a decay power $`2.0`$.

It may be mentioned that such avalanches manifest in the ultrasonic emissions during the propagation of fracture in the solid and the ultrasonic amplitudes are also observed to have similar power law distribution .

IV. Simulation results for fatigue-failure in random fiber bundles

In order to investigate the fatigue behavior in random fiber bundles we consider three different kinds of fiber strength distributions $`\rho (\sigma _c)`$: (A) Uniform distribution of fiber strength where $`\rho (\sigma _c)=1`$ for $`0<\sigma _c1`$ and $`\rho (\sigma _c)=0`$ for $`\sigma _c>1`$, (B) Linearly increasing distribution of fiber strength where $`\rho (\sigma _c)=2\sigma _c`$ for $`0<\sigma _c1`$ and $`\rho (\sigma _c)=0`$ for $`\sigma _c>1`$ and (C) Linearly decreasing distribution of fiber strength where $`\rho (\sigma _c)=2(1\sigma _c)`$ for $`0<\sigma _c1`$ and $`\rho (\sigma _c)=0`$ for $`\sigma _c>1`$. It has been already shown analytically , from the dynamics of failure in all these three kinds of fiber bundles in the absence of any noise (vanishing $`T`$ or $`\stackrel{~}{T}`$ in (5)), the bundle’s strength $`\stackrel{~}{\sigma _c}=1/4`$ for model A, $`\stackrel{~}{\sigma _c}=\sqrt{4/27}`$ for model B and $`\stackrel{~}{\sigma _c}=4/27`$ for model C. We now consider the effect of the noise $`\stackrel{~}{T}`$ inducing the failure probability $`P(\sigma ,\stackrel{~}{T})=\mathrm{exp}\left[\frac{1}{\stackrel{~}{T}}\left(\frac{\sigma _c}{\sigma }1\right)\right]`$ for $`0<\sigma \sigma _c`$ and $`1`$ for $`\sigma >\sigma _c`$, in the (fatigue) dynamics of such bundles, where $`\sigma _c`$ is the strength of the individual fibers in the bundle.

We have studied these numerically, using Monte Carlo method (for bundles having $`N=10^5`$ or more fibers). We have considered bundles having the above three kinds (A, B and C) of $`\rho (\sigma _c)`$ one by one. The noise induced failure mentioned above is realised only in a Monte Carlo way. Taking averages typically over $`10^3`$ Monte Carlo runs the fraction of unbroken fibers $`U(t)`$ at any time $`t`$ at a fixed stress level $`\sigma (<\stackrel{~}{\sigma _c})`$ is noted. At any $`\sigma `$, the average failure time $`\tau `$ (when $`U(t)=0`$) is extracted. The form of the distributions and the variations of average time with noise $`\stackrel{~}{T}`$ and stress $`\sigma `$ are shown for the three types of bundles. We find that $`\tau `$ fits a form

$$\tau =\stackrel{~}{T}\mathrm{exp}\left(\frac{1}{\stackrel{~}{T}}\right)\left[\mathrm{exp}\left(\frac{\stackrel{~}{\sigma _c}}{\sigma \stackrel{~}{T}}+\frac{1}{\stackrel{~}{T}}\right)1\right]$$
(13)
for all types of bundles (indicated by dotted lines in Fig. 3). We find that this phenomenological form (13) is indeed very close to the analytic result (9) for the fixed strength fiber bundle; it is somewhat approximate for these bundles and fits better for lower noise ($`\stackrel{~}{T}`$) and stress ($`\sigma `$) levels. The avalanche size distributions in all these three models (A, B and C) have been studied numerically (see Fig. 4) and we find them to follow the same power law decay (12) with $`\alpha 2.0`$.

Fig. 3. Typical fiber strength distributions $`\rho (\sigma _c)`$ considered and the simulation results for fatigue behavior: (a) average failure time $`\tau `$ vs. noise $`\stackrel{~}{T}`$ (for three different stress values $`\sigma `$) and (b) $`\tau `$ vs. $`\sigma `$ (for three different noise values $`\stackrel{~}{T}`$) are shown for $`N=10^5`$ fibers. The time variation of fraction of surviving fibers are shown in the insets for the three models: (A) with uniform $`\rho (\sigma _c)`$, (B) with linearly increasing $`\rho (\sigma _c)`$ and (C) with linearly decreasing $`\rho (\sigma _c)`$; all having a cut off at $`\sigma _c=1`$. The dotted lines in (a) and (b) corresponds to the fit with expression (13) where $`\stackrel{~}{\sigma _c}0.245`$ in (A) (exact value=$`1/4`$ ), $`\stackrel{~}{\sigma _c}0.370`$ in (B) (exact value=$`\sqrt{4/27}`$ ), $`\stackrel{~}{\sigma _c}0.148`$ in (A) (exact value=$`4/27`$ ).

Fig. 4. The simulation results for the distributions $`D(m)`$ of avalanches ($`m`$) in the three random fiber bundles with $`N=10^5`$ (averaged over $`4\times 10^3`$ realisations): for model (A) with $`\sigma =0.07,`$ $`\stackrel{~}{T}=0.5`$ (square), for model (B) with $`\sigma =0.12,`$ $`\stackrel{~}{T}=0.4`$ (circle) and for model (C) with $`\sigma =0.04,`$ $`\stackrel{~}{T}=0.5`$ (triangle). The dashed line corresponds to a decay power $`2.0`$.

V. Summary and discussions

First, we have studied analytically the macroscopic failure of a homogeneous fiber bundle model where each fiber has an unique strength ($`\sigma _c`$). At zero noise ($`\stackrel{~}{T}=0`$) all the fibers of the bundle fail simultaneously for $`\sigma \sigma _c`$, while at $`\stackrel{~}{T}0`$ each fiber has got a non-vanishing failure probability \[given by eqn. (5)\] due to the thermal-like activation. The dynamics of failure of the bundle has been solved using the continuum version of the recursion relation (6) for global load sharing case. The resulting expression (8) for the average failure time ($`\tau `$) has qualitative features similar to that (4) obtained from the phenomenological nucleation rate theory applied for a Griffith’s crack. Both the forms have got the desirable features that $`\tau `$ decreases exponentially as $`\sigma `$ approaches $`\sigma _c`$ from below and $`\tau 0`$ for $`\sigma \sigma _c`$. As mentioned already, although the above features agree qualitatively with the experimental observations, the precise mathematical forms we obtained here differ from the experimentally indicated forms . As time $`t`$ approaches $`\tau `$, the fraction of unbroken fibers decay as $`(\tau t)^\beta `$, $`\beta =0_+`$ and its rate of breaking grows as $`(\tau t)^\gamma `$, with $`\gamma =1`$. The avalanche size distribution $`D(m)`$ is also obtained analytically for the dynamics. It is seen to have a robust power law governed decay behavior $`D(m)m^\alpha `$ with $`\alpha =2`$. Our numerical results also confirm this behavior. Next, we have studied numerically the dynamics and the average breaking time $`\tau `$ for bundles where the breaking strengths are not fixed and are given by the three simple distributions $`\rho (\sigma _c)`$. We find that for all the three cases, the average $`\tau `$ fits well a form (13), which is very close to the analytic form for $`\tau `$ in (9) for fixed failure threshold of the fibers. We have also investigated the avalanche size distributions in these models and obtained the same power law behavior, as for the fixed strength fibers.

As mentioned already, here the noise parameter ($`\stackrel{~}{T}`$ in (5)) can not be identified with temperature ($`T`$ in (2)) which scales with the (crack) energy. In fact, although this failure model and its dynamics are applied here to classical breakdown phenomena occurring in the fiber bundle model or (classical) percolating solids , they seem to be applicable to quantum breakdown due to tunneling as well. Failures in quantum percolating solids beyond their linear conducting or insulating regime, has not been studied much (see however ). In fact, like the fuse (or dielectric breakdown) problems of percolating (or non-percolating) systems of conductor-insulator networks, one can think of the field induced breakdown of a quantum percolating system where the phase of the system is determined through two energy scales: Fermi energy $`ϵ_f`$ and the mobility edge $`ϵ_c`$. For $`ϵ_f>`$ $`ϵ_c`$ the system is in conducting phase and it goes to insulating phase for $`ϵ_f<`$ $`ϵ_c`$. This metal-insulator transition at $`ϵ_f=`$ $`ϵ_c`$ (in higher than two dimensional systems) and the scaling property of conductivity for $`ϵ_f>`$ $`ϵ_c`$ have been studied extensively . For the insulating phase ($`ϵ_f<`$ $`ϵ_c`$), one can have electric field induced (Zener type) breakdown (similar to dielectric breakdown of non-percolating classical networks). This Zener breakdown of Anderson insulators or the quantum tunneling induced breakdown of impure (localised) insulators have not been studied much (see however ). Unlike a (classical) fiber bundle model considered here, where all the fibers are in parallel, one can consider a dielectric composed of several elements in series having non-zero failure probability for each element due to quantum tunneling (like the noise-induced activation considered here). Any microscopic failure of such an element would result in increased field on the surviving elements and this in turn would enhance their failure probability. A similar dielectric failure time ($`\tau `$) in such quantum or Anderson insulators is thus expected under electric field. Here $`\sigma `$ and $`\sigma _c`$ would be replaced by $`ϵ_f`$ and $`ϵ_c`$ respectively and $`\stackrel{~}{T}`$ would correspond to the inverse tunneling length determined by the electric field (with the Planck’s constant as the proportionality factor, incorporating the intrinsic noise) .

Our study here for fatigue breakdown in the model fiber bundles shows that the average failure time for the bundle at a stress value $`\sigma `$ less than the bundle strength $`\sigma _c`$ (for homogeneous fiber bundle) or $`\stackrel{~}{\sigma _c}`$ (for random fiber bundles), above which the bundle fails immediately, decreases exponentially as $`\sigma `$ approaches $`\sigma _c`$ or $`\stackrel{~}{\sigma _c}`$ from below. This has already been observed in several experiments qualitatively. We have demonstrated this fatigue behavior here both analytically and numerically for a homogeneous fiber bundle (section III) and also numerically for random fiber bundles with nontrivial strength distributions (section IV). We also believe that these observations will be useful in quantum breakdown phenomena.


text:
# Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Constraints on Brane Cosmologies

## Abstract

We examine constraints from Big Bang nucleosynthesis on type II Randall-Sundrum brane cosmologies with both a dark radiation component and a quadratic term that depends on the 5-dimensional Planck mass, $`M_5`$. Using limits on the abundances of deuterium and helium-4, we calculate the allowed region in the $`M_5`$–dark radiation plane and derive the precise BBN bound on $`M_5`$ alone with no dark radiation: $`M_5>13`$ TeV.

In brane cosmologies, the observable universe is a brane embedded in a higher-dimensional bulk. The standard-model fields are confined to our 3-brane, while gravity alone propagates in the bulk. Such models were proposed to explain the large gap between the energy scale of gravity and the energy scales of the other interactions; by adding a number of extra compact dimensions, the “true” Planck mass can be moved down to the TeV scale Arkani ; Anton .

An interesting variation on this idea was proposed by Randall and Sundrum Randall , who produced a set of models with a non-compactified extra dimension. In the type II Randall-Sundrum model, the brane has positive tension, and the bulk contains a negative cosmological constant. The cosmology produced in this model has been investigated in some detail Csaki ; Cline ; Binetruy . With the correct fine-tuning, the Friedmann equation in this scenario reduces to:

$$\left(\frac{\dot{a}}{a}\right)^2=\frac{1}{3M_4^2}\rho \frac{k}{a^2}+\frac{\mathrm{\Lambda }_4}{3}+\frac{1}{36M_5^6}\rho ^2+\frac{𝒞}{a^4},$$
(1)
where $`M_4=(8\pi G_N)^{1/2}`$ is the 4-dimensional Planck mass, and $`M_5`$ is the 5-dimensional Planck mass. In equation (1), the first three terms are identical to the corresponding terms in the conventional Friedmann equation, corresponding to the contribution from the total density, curvature, and cosmological constant, respectively. (The curvature and cosmological constant have no effect on Big Bang nucleosynthesis, so we will not discuss them further). The final two terms give the modification to the Friedmann equation in this brane scenario; the second of these is sometimes called “dark radiation”, because it scales as $`a^4`$; however, $`𝒞`$ can be positive or negative.

Constraints can be placed on both $`M_5`$ and $`𝒞`$ from Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) Cline ; Binetruy ; Langlois ; Barrow ; Ichiki ; Mizuno ; Maartens . These limits are based on the requirement that the change in the expansion rate due to the quadratic and dark radiation terms in equation (1) be sufficiently small that an acceptable 4He abundance be produced. With the exception of Ref. Ichiki , these limits are all rather rough. In Ref. Ichiki , the constraint on the dark radiation term was calculated in detail using limits from both BBN and the cosmic microwave background (CMB), assuming negligible contribution from the quadratic term. (For a further discussion of CMB limits on brane cosmologies, see Ref. ).

In this paper, we extend the calculation of Ref. Ichiki  to include both the contribution from the quadratic term and the dark radiation simultaneously, providing a constraint in the $`M_5`$, $`𝒞`$ plane. This also provides the first detailed calculation of the BBN limit on $`M_5`$ alone. Note that $`M_5`$ is already constrained by the requirement that the theory reduce to Newtonian gravity on scales $`>1`$ mm; this requirement gives Maartens

$$M_5>10^5\mathrm{TeV},$$
(2)
which is considerably stronger than limits that can be derived from BBN (which are on the order of a few TeV). However, it has been noted Mizuno  that the type II Randall-Sundrum model could be an effective theory, derived from a more fundamental theory, in which case the limit in equation (2) need not apply. It is therefore of interest to consider the BBN limit on $`M_5`$, both alone and in combination with the limit on the dark radiation.

The primordial production of 4He is controlled by a competition between the weak interaction rates (which govern the interconversion of neutrons and protons) and the expansion rate of the Universe. As long as the weak interaction rates are faster than the expansion rate, the neutron-to-proton ratio ($`n/p`$) tracks its equilibrium value. Eventually, as the Universe expands and cools, the expansion rate comes to dominate and $`n/p`$ essentially freezes out. The relatively large binding energy of 4He insures that nearly all the neutrons which survive this freeze-out are converted into 4He as soon as deuterium becomes stable against photodisintegration (see, e.g., Ref. Olive  for further details of this well-known story). In the standard cosmology \[i.e., one where the Friedmann equation takes the form $`(\dot{a}/a)^2\rho /(3M_4^2)`$\], $`n/p`$ freezes out at a temperature $`T1`$ MeV. Therefore, the primordial production of 4He is very sensitive to the expansion rate of the Universe at temperatures $``$1 MeV, and in fact this sensitivity has been exploited many times in bounding the number of light neutrino species.

Our analysis uses the sensitivity of primordial 4He to the expansion rate at $`T1`$ MeV to constrain the two additional “brane-terms” that appear in the type II Randall-Sundrum generalization of the Friedmann equation (equation 1). Specifically, we limit the additional energy density associated with the $`M_5`$ and dark radiation contributions by requiring that the primordial production of 4He in such brane cosmologies agree with the observed abundance of 4He. Note that the primordial production of 4He is weakly (log) dependent on the baryon density and so in principle constraints on such brane cosmologies would also involve constraints on the baryon density. However, unlike 4He, the abundance of deuterium is very sensitive to the baryon density and fairly insensitive to the expansion rate (which we verify in our detailed calculations). Therefore, we can use a comparison of the predicted deuterium abundance and its observed abundance to independently constrain the baryon density and then examine the subsequent constraints on $`M_5`$ and the dark radiation coming from 4He.

In order to constrain the additional brane-terms, we start with a standard BBN model and some conservative estimates of the primordial abundances of the light elements. We assume 3 light neutrino species and the standard updated nuclear reaction network. Because the dark radiation scales as $`a^4`$, it is convenient to parametrize it in terms of the effective number of additional neutrino species, $`\mathrm{\Delta }N_\nu `$, given by $`\mathrm{\Delta }N_\nu (𝒞/a^4)(3M_4^2/\rho _\nu )`$, where $`\rho _\nu `$ is the energy density contributed by a single, two-component massless neutrino, and $`\mathrm{\Delta }N_\nu `$ can be either positive or negative. (Note that a slightly different parametrization was used in Ref. Ichiki ). Then the brane Friedman equation can be completely specified by $`M_5`$ and $`\mathrm{\Delta }N_\nu `$.

We take the primordial deuterium abundance as inferred from QSO absorption line systems in the range

$$3\times 10^5<\mathrm{D}/\mathrm{H}<4\times 10^5,$$
(3)
and we take Yp (the primordial mass fraction of 4He) as inferred from low-metallicity HII regions to be

$$0.23<\mathrm{Y}_p<0.25,$$
(4)
(see, e.g., Ref. Olive ). For a fixed pair of $`M_5`$ and $`\mathrm{\Delta }N_\nu `$, we then scan over the baryon-photon ratio $`\eta `$ to see if a value of $`\eta `$ exists which produces deuterium and 4He abundances within the acceptable limits. In practice, the deuterium abundance is nearly insensitive to $`M_5`$ and $`\mathrm{\Delta }N_\nu `$, so the deuterium constraint limits $`\eta `$ to the range $`\eta =46\times 10^{10}`$ for most of our parameter range, and the upper and lower limits on 4He then give the contraints in the $`M_5`$ – dark radiation plane (although note that our procedure is “exact” in the sense described above; we do not assume a fixed bound on $`\eta `$). Our results are shown in Fig. 1, where we indicate the region in the $`M_5`$ – dark radiation plane consistent with our adopted range of primordial abundances. (All the brane-cosmologies in our allowed region produce acceptable primordial 7Li abundances.)

We can understand the shape of the excluded region shown in Fig. 1 as follows. The left and right contours of the allowed region correspond to Y$`{}_{p}{}^{}=0.23`$ (lowest allowed expansion rate) and Y$`{}_{p}{}^{}=0.25`$ (largest allowed expansion rate), respectively. The sensitivity of primordial 4He to the expansion of the Universe at $`T1`$ MeV constrains the additional energy density at that temperature to be within roughly half a neutrino species of the standard model. When $`M_5`$ is sufficiently large, we get the standard constraint on additional relativistic energy density, which appears in Fig. 1 as a vertical band. As $`M_5`$ decreases, the $`\rho ^2`$ term in the Friedmann equation starts to dominate at $`T1`$ MeV and our allowed region moves sharply to the left, so that the negative dark radiation energy density cancels the $`\rho ^2`$ contribution to the expansion.

Our investigation yields two new results: a precision determination of the BBN limit on $`M_5`$, and a combined limit on $`M_5`$ and $`𝒞`$. For $`𝒞=0`$, we derive the precise BBN limit on $`M_5`$ alone:

$$M_5>13\mathrm{TeV}.$$
(5)
Our limits on the dark radiation for large $`M_5`$ are

$$1.0<\mathrm{\Delta }N_\nu <0.5,$$
(6)
in rough agreement with Ref. Ichiki . When both the quadratic term and the dark radiation contribute significantly to the Friedman equation, our limits are given by the contours in Fig. 1. Although we can find acceptable solutions for very small $`M_5`$, the allowed region shrinks dramatically in this limit; a small $`M_5`$ requires both $`𝒞<0`$ and precise fine-tuning of $`𝒞`$.

###### Acknowledgements.

J.B. and A.C.G. were supported at Ohio State University under the NSF Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) program (PHY-9912037). R.J.S. and T.P.W. were supported by the Department of Energy (DE-FG02-91ER40690).