Climate change as a risk factor for the Russian economy
The possible losses for the economies of different countries in such areas as market impact, non-market effects, and social-induced loss caused by the possible force majeure events of social nature are presented. Climate change in Russia is characterized by a significant increase in the temperature of the cold seasons, by the evaporation growth accompanied by the maintenance and even reduction of total precipitation for the warm season, by the increasing frequency of droughts, by the changes in annual river runoff and its seasonal redistribution, by the change in sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean basin and in the mouths of the northern rivers. The main warming-related risks are: an increased frequency, intensity and duration of droughts in some regions, extreme precipitation, floods, cases of dangerous waterlogging for agriculture in other regions; an increased fire hazard in forests and peatlands; the disturbance of the usual way of life of indigenous northern peoples; permafrost degradation causing damage to buildings and communications; the violation of ecological balance, the displacement of some species by others; an increase in electricity consumption for air conditioning in summer for most of the country. The positive changes are: the warming in the Arctic will increase the duration of navigation along the Northern Sea Route and will facilitate the development of oil and gas fields on the shelf; the heating season will be reduced by 2-3 days, and hence energy consumption will decrease; the northern border of agriculture will move to the north, thereby increasing the area of agricultural lands, especially in Western Siberia and the Urals.