FORECASTING THE INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIAN REGIONS
The article focuses on the study of the underlying factors,that have a certain degree of influence on the indicators of innovation activity of Russian regions. As a rule, research conducted in the field offorecasting innovative development, as well as the innovative potential of the country's regions, is carried out in the form of a rating model, but such developments do not involve the use of predictive and analytical methods. In contrast to the rating model, the paper attempts to predict the innovative development of Russian regions under the influence of a number of characteristics of educational systems in the studied regions. For the study, 6 factors are selected that reveal various aspects of the innovative development of regions, and correlation and regression analysis is implemented in relation to these variables. Within the framework of the latter, a multiple linear econometric model is constructed, with respect to the data of which its residuals are checked (the Gauss-Markov Theorem). In order to identify the parameters of the model, the Least Squares Method is used. Parameters are investigated in the areas of their quality and adequacy. The resulting regression goes through the stages of checking for adequacy and quality. By results of the conducted econometric analysis the econometric model should identify a number of barriers during the quantitative transformation and display of communications between the studied phenomena.