THE FORECASTING OF THE LETHAL OUTCOMES IN HYPERTENSIVE ELDERLY PATIENTS IN THE CONCEPT OF THE GERIATRIC SYNDROMES
An integrated approach to the assessment of the health status of elderly patients with current positions of geriatric syndromes and defined contribution syndrome of cognitive impairment, anxiety-depressive syndrome for the formation medium-term forecasting of the lethal outcomes had been made. The studying of survival by the Kaplan-Meier method showed statistically significant differences in the examined patients with hypertension in older age groups who are serving on a cottage territorial center of social security of the population, compared with respondents unorganized population (criterion Gehana-Wilcoxon p=0,04; Cox p=0,05). The probability of the lethal outcomes in patients with hypertension in older age groups has increased 10,13 times (95% CI 1,2-81,8, p <0.05) if the patient is not taking antihypertensive medications. The presence of cognitive dysfunction syndrome (the clock drawing test less than 8 points) increases the risk of death by 1,36 times, anxious-depressive state (the geriatric depression scale more than 5 points) – 1,12 times. A model of the logistic regression predicting the likely medium-term development of the lethal outcomes in patients with hypertension in older age groups with regard to the main geriatric syndromes is constructed. The sensitivity of the model was 89%, specificity - 94%.