FORECASTING TIME SERIES MODELINGOF WHEAT CONSUMPTION, PRODUCTIONAND IMPORTS IN EGYPT USING ARIMA MODEL
Wheat is the major crops of the agriculture sector In Egypt, the increasing demand for wheat caused by the increasing population, and is the most important food commodities for the population is representing half the daily food of the people, forecasting is the main tool for predicting the production of wheat to determine the situation what would be the value of production in the future. This study mains are to ﬁ nd out the time series models and best model is identiﬁ ed for the objective to forecast the wheat demand and supply in Egypt. The study was developed time series models based on data on production, consumption and imports during 2016-2030 years, and best model is identiﬁ ed for the objective to forecast the wheat in Egypt. We have found that the best model is ARIMA (0,0,1) or simply (AR1) On the basis of this selected model, we have found that wheat consumption was increased about 18,54 million tons, with a minimum of about 9,48 million tons and a maximum of about 27,64 million tons, while the production was still 9,6 million tons and the import was about 9,5 million tons, which conﬁ rmed that Egypt will depend on the imports in the coming period, if the policy is not changed in the production of wheat