CONSTRUCTION OF THE ADMISSIBLE DOMAIN FOR THE INDEPENDENT VARIABLES OF A REGRESSION MODEL OF LOCOMOTIVE PERFORMANCE
The paper gives a brief overview of the work related to the modeling of railway transport objects: the growth of passenger traffic at the station level, travel in urban areas and the use of so-called intermodal models, between delays in the arrival of passenger trains and various characteristics of the railway system, direct and indirect influence of transport infrastructure on prices for housing and rent. An important problem arising in regression modeling of complex systems, including of a technical nature, associated with the construction of the domain of definition of models, is considered, since one of the main directions of their practical application is to predict the development of the research object in the future time period. In this case, the used values of the independent variables of the models must correspond to the proportions between them that have developed in the history of the analyzed process. The scope of the model definition is intended to establish such a correspondence. When it is formed, it is required to construct a linear regression for each explanatory variable, while the rest of such variables are included in it as independent ones. A method for calculating the relative width of the domain of definition of the regression model is considered. A linear regression model of the performance of a locomotive of the Krasnoyarsk railway has been built, while the following are used as independent variables: average daily mileage of a locomotive, section speed, average weight of a freight train. To assess the adequacy of the model, the traditional criteria in regression analysis were used: multiple determination, Fisher, average relative approximation error. Analysis of the values of the model adequacy criteria indicates its high quality. The region of definition of the model was formed, the relative width of which was 8%.