Radioecological assessment of forage agricultural land in the southwestern areas of the Bryansk region based on a set of statistical models
This paper presents a radioecological assessment of forage agricultural land in the southwestern districts of the Bryansk region based on data characterizing the variability of the radionuclides content in the soil. Concentration of <sup>137</sup>Cs in forage was calculated taking into account the probability distributions of <sup>137</sup>Cs soil contamination density and the soil to plant transfer factor. The processing data of the radioecological survey has shown the soil contamination density with <sup>137</sup>Cs of agricultural lands in the southwestern areas of the Bryansk region obeys a lognormal law. The authors have used statistical models and software modules for the radioecological assessment of forage lands. Risks of exceeding the <sup>137</sup>Cs content standards in forage obtained on soils with different texture have been calculated. The limiting levels of contamination of pastures and hayfields with <sup>137</sup>Cs, ensuring compliance with the specified risks for forage, have been estimated. The lowest limiting soil contamination density is characteristic of organic soils, which can be considered “critical” from the point of view of <sup>137</sup>Cs intake into forage. The authors have predicted the time of remediation of forage lands in the southwestern districts of the Bryansk region in the absence of protective measures based on a probabilistic approach. The time period during which the risk of forage contamination for sandy, sandy loam and clay loam soils will decrease to 10% varies for the areas under consideration in a wide range, not exceeding 64 years. It is concluded that it is advisable to substantiate the value of the acceptable risk of forage contamination, taking into account radiological and socio-economic aspects.