STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF AVERAGE PRICES FOR ELECTRICITY IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION
The current economic and political situation in the Russian Federation and the world as a whole has given a special importance to research in the field of energy prices aimed at development of tools for information support system of strategic planning at the micro-, meso-, and macro-levels.The article presents results of dynamics analysis and forecasting of average prices for electricity sold for population and industrial enterprises in the Russian Federation monthly, time period: 1998-2016. The comparative analysis of dynamics intensity allowed making a conclusion that prices for population are increasing at a higher rate.Investigation of time series structure on the basis of spectral analysis and calculation of autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions has proved the existence of trend and cyclical components. Taking into account the structure of time series, modeling and forecasting average prices for electricity sold for population and industrial enterprises on a second-degree polynomial in view of variability of adaptive polynomial models, as well as models of autoregression of integrated moving average is conducted.The high quality of the forecast is confirmed by the differences' coefficient of G. Theil calculated on the actual values of average electricity prices released for industrial enterprises and population in August - September 2016.