THE POSSIBILITIES OF USING INDICATORS FOR REAL GENERATIONS IN ASSESSING THE DYNAMICS OF FERTILITY
The article considers fertility rates in real cohorts by year of birth of women and by year of marriage registration, as well as the share of first marriages in real women generations. We estimate the presence of timing shifts and their possible impact on the total fertility rate dynamics by first and second births in modern Russia, on the basis of their analysis. We calculated the total fertility rates by the number of births, analyzed its dynamics in the period from 2012 to 2021 in Russia and the Sverdlovsk region. Next, we calculated the average number of first births by the age of 25 in real generations in Russia, the average number of children born in generations by the year of marriage in Russia and the region; the shares of women who entered into a first marriage in real women generations in Russia and in the region were analyzed, and calculations were made of the average number of second births in real women generations in Russia by the age of 30 and 32. The results of the study proved the dependence of the decline in the total fertility rate in recent years on the reduction in the average number of first births by the age of 25.