New Eurasia as a global environment for competition: the perspectives and the potential for preserving the integration
The article is dedicated to the analysis of the tendencies of the development of post-Soviet Eurasia. Contemporary Eurasia is not regarded as the perspective center for economic growth within the model of regionalization of the global economy, but, from the point of view of resources and logistics potential, that environment remains important at the global scale. The author considers that the activities of the non-regional actors in the post-Soviet space will be on the rise, and he regards this fact as an indication of the growing potential for the manipulations which are facilitated by the degradation of not only “soviet” but also “post-soviet” models of development. Eurasia is transforming into the environment of competition with the participation of the outside players. They do not regard Russia's dominating role both in the peripheral part of Eurasia and in its heartland as something taken for granted - neither from the political, nor from the economic point of view. The outside players will base their policy in post-Soviet Eurasia upon the multi-vector nature of the processes with the understanding that economic and institutional consolidation of the environment is not at all a priority for them. The author makes a point that the scenarios of chaotization and the creation of exterritorial enclaves might become quite a possible option. The internal transformation of some of the regions in proximity with Eurasia that interact with it politically and in the economic sphere increases the anti-integration potential. It creates a number of important challenges for Russia and demands reconsideration of the traditional approach to the political and economic processes. Basing on the conducted analysis, the author comes to the conclusion that the greatest of these challenges is the transformation of Eurasia and especially its Southern and South-East periphery into the environment for the competition between different extra-regional actors for influence, access to resources as well as for the control over the territorial potential. That would inevitably make Russia confront with the challenge to revise its strategy connected with the processes in Eurasia.