Planning of basic indicators of activity with the application of cognitive modeling at industrial enterprises of the Russian Federation
The article is devoted to the currently relevant problem of cognitive modeling in industrial enterprises. The purpose of the article is to analyze the use of cognitive modeling in industrial enterprises. A comparison is made of the opinions of domestic and foreign authors on the cognitive model. The main theoretical aspects of cognitive modeling, unsolved problems in the field of modeling are considered. The advantages and disadvantages of the cognitive method are highlighted. It was noted that enterprise managers find it difficult to use cognitive modeling, despite numerous studies and ease of use. The authors identified a trend towards the development of cognitive modeling in industry. Thus, the article provides examples of the application of cognitive technologies at the enterprises of the oil and gas industry as a whole, at PJSC Gazprom Neft and scientific research. The main focus of the authors focus on the essence of cognitive maps. Examples of building cognitive maps by indicators, by factors and indicators are given. The authors found that for the flow of business processes it is necessary to identify the most promising branches of science and technology in Russia, based on the forecast of the long-term scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030. In turn, the authors analyzed the dynamics of GDP in accordance with the forecast of long-term socio-economic development in three options: conservative, moderately optimistic, and forced with the forecast up to 2030. The authors built a cognitive map of the systems and their units in the energy saving and energy efficiency industries, making relevant decisions based on the Concept of energy saving and energy efficiency improvement for the period 2011-2020 adopted in 2010. in PJSC Gazprom, causal relationships between systems and their units have been identified. It was concluded that cognitive modeling is a promising direction in the field of industry, which is used to manage the development of weakly structured systems, objects, situations. The use of cognitive models increases the validity of making management decisions in difficult situations.