Uncertainties analysis with the example of adaptation of real field model
The article considers TDRM™ technology applied for accounting of initial information uncertainties during adaptation of an oil deposit hydrodynamic model. The technology is based on construction of a great number of unequally probable physically different hydrodynamic models followed by analysis of a model sensibility to initial data change. Finally, several mostly qualitative hydrodynamic models with maximum physical differences are chosen to build predictive calculations and to form a "decisions’ corridor". Application of the technology served the ground for reviewing of a formation geological concept with account of the revealed uncertainties, proved by reliability increase of predictive calculations.