SCENARIO CONDITIONS AND WAYS OF INDUSTRIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE ARKHANGELSK REGION
The paper discusses possible scenarios for the industrial sector development in the Arkhangelsk region and analyses the industry structure. The largest contribution to the gross regional product (GRP) of the Arkhangelsk Region is made by the manufacturing industry. In terms of GRP per capita, the Nenets Autonomous Area (part of the Arkhangelsk Region) ranks first in the country. Industrial production increases by the factor of 1.2-1.5 annually. The article highlights key strategic areas of the Arkhangelsk Region development, pointing out that climatic changes and growing importance of the northern territories due to more active exploration can have a positive effect on the region. Among negative factors there can be named ageing population and increased migration (out-migration). In the long term, the region can be seriously challenged by the growing competition between the regions within Russia for investment, administration and human resources. For the region to compete successfully, there should be created favorable working and living conditions for the population, especially for qualified personnel. The region has a number of important advantages that should be used to overcome the difficulties encountered in creating a competitive economy and social sphere: a developed machine- building cluster; access to the sea; rich natural resources; a developed transport hub; unique natural, cultural and historical attractions. This paper provides recommendations on possible ways of developing the industrial sector in the region. Deep processing of locally produced raw materials at both new and modernized industrial plants require urgent attention. It is clear that under any scenario the economic development of the Arkhangelsk Region will be linked to the development of the Russian continental shelf and resources of the Arctic zone. Other scenarios in the rapidly changing and rather unpredictable geopolitical and economic situation in the world seem quite unrealistic.