Application of Economic and Mathematical Modeling Methods when Elaborating a Municipality Development Strategy
Management of municipality strategic development requires solution of many problems, while the most difficult and responsible stages of this process include formation of a forecast and development plan of the territorial system. Today expert methods are often used, which have a number of drawbacks. At the same time, formalized methods are considered to a much lesser extent and practically not used in determining indicators of strategic development of municipalities. The study considers the Russian system for forecasting and planning, analyzes municipality development strategies and determines a typical structure of these documents, including sections “Basic provisions”, “Analysis”, “Analysis results”, “Development directions”, “Strategy implementation mechanisms”, “Forecast”. It reveals key problems of municipal developmentmanagement and shows their interrelation. It is determined that the existing approaches to forecasting and planning municipality development in most cases are limited to expert methods or data extrapolation. The authors present a concept for working out the economic-mathematical model of a municipality. The principles of model construction are defined. The article identifies schemes that include key stages of developing the economic-mathematical model of a municipality and linkages among variables. The proposed approach is tested on the data of the city of Salavat in the Republic of Bashkortostan. The work briefly describes the forecast for city development for the period up to 2030. The forecast estimates results help identify strengths and weaknesses of this territory, which subsequently allow municipal and regional authorities to develop necessary measures for further effective development of the city. The scientific novelty of the study is to justify the feasibility of using economic-mathematical modeling methods to solve forecasting and planning problems, when developing the strategy for socio-economic development of a municipality.