Modeling of Crisis Cyclic Dynamics of the Evolution of Socio-Economic Systems of the Countries of the European Part of the CIS. Part II
The work is devoted to the macroeconomic description of the main trends of cyclical development and modeling of the evolution of transformational crisis economic systems of the European part of the CIS countries in the conditions of integration and global instability. In the process of research the methods of evolutionary-institutional theory, econometric modeling and analytical evaluation were used. A retrospective analysis of the socio-economic dynamics of the countries of the European part of the CIS in the period from 1991-2017 is carried out. The study shows that while maintaining the existing structure of the economy, the exit from the transformation crisis cycle can be associated only with the growth of the world economy, which, obviously, will be followed by the growth of consumer demand for the main export goods of the national economy. The reasons and the main factors that complicate the exit of the economy of these countries from the crisis cycle and reduce the effectiveness of the anti-crisis policy of the state are substantiated. The research shows that the national economies have not created a strong banking and financial system that is resistant to the manifestations of the global financial and cyclical crisis. The unjustified level of liberalization of banking institutions, integration into various international institutions, attraction of doubtful foreign investments at any cost led to the bankruptcy of the financial system. The result of blind transplantation of market institutions of management was the loss of state acyclic regulation of the economy, especially in terms of solving social problems and long-term strategy of socio-economic cyclical development of their countries. It is shown that in the current situation of instability, Russia needs to draw adequate conclusions, which should form the basis of the strategy of maintaining national economic interest with a focus on the formation of a sustainable economy. The scientifically grounded proposals on improvement of ways of regulation of cyclic fluctuations of macroeconomic dynamics in the conditions of instability, restoring order, innovative way of development and modernization of economy are formed. The developed proposals and mechanisms for effective regulation of the main problems in the development of socio-economic systems can be used to preserve and enhance the competitive advantages of the national economies of these countries as a whole.