Statistical analysis of the social tension factors in Russia
The behavior of the mass of the Russian population in the form of protest movements is discussed and analyzed. The hypothesis of political causation for the protests by terms of socio-economic life isn’t rejected. The empirical basis of the study are the data on protest activity of the population in 2011-2012 years, formed on the basis of printed and electronic federal and regional media as well as the content of social networking in Internet. It rantains mathematical and statistical analysis of various forms of public discontent and protests of various kinds. Two integral indexes are obtained from the principal component analysis: the index of social tension, which accumulates all kinds of protests, and index of social dissatisfaction, and which reflects all forms of discontent. The numerical values of these indices allow a comparison and ranking of different regions of Russia on the socio-political and economic environment. There is a statistically significant linear relationship shown between the two indices. The found regression makes it possible to carry out a conditional forecast of changes in social tension with changing certain indicators of social and economic discontent of the population.