Character of Forming External Trade of Ukraine: Statistical Estimation
In the past two decades sizeable economic changes occurred in Ukraine affecting its international economic activity and launching the country’s position in a dramatic drift over ranking in the world trade statistics. Therefore, important questions of traversed path analysis and identification of priority areas of development have arisen. At the beginning of Ukraine’s independence its external trade statistics paid attention to the development of new methods of generating the knowledge base, but less attention was paid to the analysis of its activity. That situation was quite understandable, since the post-Soviet economy could not easily shift to new market mechanisms due to the slow reform progress. That’s why the country developed by inertia for a long time. That development also had a positive side, however domestic and global economic crisis finally pointed out the futility of such a path. The aim of this paper is to determine the features of modern Ukraine's external trade and to reveal its role in the international trade area. The results of the analysis have revealed that our country is losing its position in the U.S. market, but in the Russian Federation we have indisputable success. As for China, Belarus, Poland and Germany, Ukraine struggles for position in these markets. This dependence demonstrates a situation when some countries, such as the United States of America, with a high level of industry and economy do not need our products, meanwhile, on the other hand, the Russian Federation, is unable to buy products at higher prices. Therefore, not all the EU countries are satisfied with quality and price of our products. The results of the analysis can state that national producers lose their positions in the markets of international partners by increasing imports instead of exporting goods of national production. Index Ci shows that import is growing faster than export, thereby reducing the competitive position of Ukraine in the markets of the more developed countries, such as the United States of America and Germany. As for the Russian Federation, we can see the opposite tendency – the ability to compete with their producers confidently. Assessing the Ukraine’s position in the markets of major trading partners we can state that our country’s authority in the world trade area remains extremely low. Ukraine failed to enter the high-tech markets. As a result, it remains a raw materials appendix for rich countries. The structure of Ukraine’s external trade does not stimulate the economy to the innovation development. So, without immediate reforms in domestic policy and changes in external priorities Ukraine will not take up one of the leading positions in the world trade area.