THE KYZYLSU RIVER (AMU-DARYA RIVER BASIN) RUNOFF DYNAMICS AND FORECAST IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
There is given an analysis of the Kyzylsu River (one of the Vakhsh River tributaries) run-off and the main meteorological parameters (air temperature and precipitation) changes over the long-term observation period from 1956 to 2020. The main paper's purpose is to assess the impact of climate change on river runoff. Statistical methods were used for the calculation of the analysis of the hydrometeorological parameters. As a result, the river basin climatic description and the causes of the river run-off changes were obtained and identified. The upward trend in air temperature and river runoff observed from 1999 to the present will continue for the next 10-20 years. The average annual air temperature will increase by 2.0 °C, and the amount of precipitation, while maintaining a cyclical pattern, will remain within the normal range by 2030. If that climate change trend continued, the average annual water discharge by 2030-2040 will increase by 6.5-8.1 m3/s or by 9-11 % of the values for 1956-2020. The average annual water consumption by 2030-2040 will increase by 6.5-8.1 m3/s or by 9-11 % of the values for 1956-2020. The results of the study are intended for decision-makers of water resources management and long-term planning in the climate change context.