METHOD OF EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF INDUSTRIAL RISKS ON THE EFFICIENCY OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS FOR DEVELOPING MISSED HYDROCARBON DEPOSITS
The article proposes the author's method of economic assessment of the feasibility of developing missed oil and gas hydrocarbon deposits at oil-producing enterprises. The method is based on a set of industry-specific risks identified by the authors that can significantly affect the profits from the development of the missed deposits. These are the risks of inaccurate estimates of reservoir permeability, changes in reservoir porosity, erroneous estimates of reservoir thickness, errors in determining fluid viscosity, erroneous determination of oil volume coefficient, mismatch between a half length of fracture from hydraulic fracturing and the projected production volume, the need to increase the length of the wellbore, erroneous estimation of oil reserves in the missed deposits, annual production capacity and oil recovery, reduction in the price of a barrel of oil, increase in tax rates. Innovative is the method of calculating the rate of discount, which is based not only on the combination of the cumulative method and the method of estimating the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), but also on the author's approach to calculating the degree of risk impact on this rate. This approach provides for a set of scenario calculations of changes in the net present value of an enterprise upon the occurrence of each risk event separately, as well as using trigonometric methods to determine the significance of each risk in the cumulative damage caused to the enterprise’s economy by their complex manifestation. The author's development was tested on the example of a missed oil-and-gas reservoir of the Troelzhanskoe field located in the Perm krai. The article presents the comparative results of the calculation of the performance indicators of the investment project in the development of this deposit, obtained using the traditional method of calculating the rate of discount and the author's methodology.