The Future of the Russian Economy in the Eyes of "Fathers" and "Sons". The Fourth Sight
This article presents the results of the fourth step of the scenario forecast of Russian economy development with the use of expert-statistical Bayesian method, which was designed for conditions of fundamental uncertainty. Several steps of research give us an opportunity to monitor modifications in expert’s opinions about a future of the economy according to current changes. Bayesian method also enable us to estimate scenarios’ chances from the different points of view, to make an accent on different problems. At this stage, the model was based on a regional problematic in Russia. Numerical modeling shows us a tendency to a more pragmatic and administrative way of the economy development.