Forecasting Fertility Based on Economic Factors
The Object of the Study: Demographic situation, population reproduction. fertility, fertility factors by group: demographic factors directly included in the number of benefits, subsidies and other measures of state demographic policy, economic factors that have a direct or indirect impact on the demographic situation in General, and the birth rate of the population The Subject of Study: fertility Forecasting based on selected groups of factors, using statistical methods, in particular regression equations. The Puroose of the Puroose of the Study is : to Identify the dominant influence of GDP, per capita income, the level of specific budget expenditures and other economic indicators on the main indicators of fertility. The Main Provisions of the Article: according to the calculations of the coefficients of pair correlation, the main indicators of fertility, and the key indicator TFR in particular,- depend not only on the passage of "demographic waves", and the level of costs of the national project "Demography", but also on GDP and other socioeconomic indicators. Traditional fertility projections are based on models that link age-specific fertility rates and the total fertility rate to the number of female populations that vary with the passage of "demographic waves". The ideology of traditional forecasting is the theory of "demographic transition". This article proposes to expand the field of forecasting methods due to a more confident connection of demographic indicators with economic ones. In particular, it is assumed that economic growth, and the resulting increase in specific budget expenditures on social, including demographic, policy, income growth and housing security of the population, can "equalize" the demographic wave, lowering its height and reducing its amplitude. Economic factors, if they are positive, can mitigate the decline in fertility and increase its growth. This addition to the generally accepted, but almost "separated" from the economy theories of "demographic transition", allow to adjust the forecasts of the total fertility rate (TFR). For this correction, the article proposes to use regression equations. This group of equations is suitable when retrospective statistical series of economic indicators for a sufficiently long period of time are available for analysis, and there are official (or generally accepted expert forecasts) for the future. This is the difference between the equations used in the article and more complex mathematical constructions, which offer a certain explanation of the situation, but do not have a statistical base for forecasting. In addition, the proposed equations are simple and effective for use by practitioners, because they do not require complex mathematical programs and can be easily implemented in the Excel processor