COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE MORTALITY OF THE POPULATION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND KUZBASS FROM MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION FOR THE PERIOD 2012-2020
The goal is to identify patterns of change in mortality rates from myocardial infarction in Kuzbass for the period from 2012 to 2020, in a comparative analysis with data for the Russian Federation. Material and methods. The analysis used data from the official statistics of the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS) on the number of deaths due to myocardial infarction in Kuzbass and the Russian Federation in 2012 and 2020. Causes of death from myocardial infarction are presented on the basis of a brief nomenclature based on the tenth revision of the International Classification diseases, injuries and causes of death (ICD 10). Results. During the analyzed period in the Russian Federation, starting from 2012, there has been a downward trend in mortality from MI. In Kuzbass, until 2014, there was a decrease in mortality from MI, and since 2015 there has been an increase in the mortality rate. In 2020, the death rate from myocardial infarction of the population of Kuzbass was marked by a record high value of 75.07 per 100 thousand of the population (32.4 % higher than last year), and in the Russian Federation there was also a slight increase in the indicator to 39.66 per 100 thousand of the population (6.3 % higher than last year). In order to establish a trend and identify the dynamics of the studied number of indicators as it would be outside the influence of «random» factors, the method of alignment by the method of least squares was applied, which is recognized as an effective method of analytical alignment of the trend. Logarithmic curves are selected for specific time series, which would most accurately reflect the features of the actual dynamics. The predicted values of mortality from myocardial infarction in Kuzbass and the Russian Federation were calculated. Conclusion. In Kuzbass for the period from 2012 to 2014 there is a decrease, and from 2015 to 2020. an increase in mortality rates due to myocardial infarction was noted. In Russian federation marked positive trends in the decrease in mortality rates from myocardial infarction since 2012 and a slight increase in 2020. A comparative analysis of the equalized levels of mortality from myocardial infarction in Kuzbass in dynamics revealed in general the existing tendency of its increase, which, despite the efforts being made, is possibly associated with the socio-economic living conditions of the Kuzbass population. The sharp increase in mortality in 2020 is possibly associated with the epidemiological situation in the context of a pandemic of a new coronavirus infection.