Econometric construction of the output gap measure for the Russian economy for New Keynesian Phillipse Curve
This article considers such an economic indicator as a measure of the output gap. The measure of the output gap is one of the indicators used in the construction of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve, a modern macroeconomic model for estimating the inflation rate. The article defines the existing methods for estimating the output gap measure: one-dimensional and multidimensional methods, from which three one-dimensional methods are further considered - the Hodrick-Prescott filtration, the simple moving average and exponential moving average method - and the positive and negative sides of various methods are given. The article also discusses various indicators of the gross domestic product, based on which it is possible to build a measure of the output gap, and then the measure of the output gap itself is built using the three previously mentioned methods and the most suitable method for constructing the New Keynesian Phillips Curve is chosen - the simple moving average method.