Iran in 2020: under the yoke of sanctions and coronavirus
The article analyzes the main trends in the socio-economic and political development of the Islamic Republic of Iran after returning American unilateral sanctions and in the context of COVID-19 pandemic. The authors make extensive use of Persian-language media publications, reports from the Majlis Research Center, the Central Bank, as well asopinion polls. Reviewing the situation in Iran in the first months of the Coronavirus, they analyze the government’s efforts to minimize its consequences and give their assessments of the socio-economic and political development of Iran in the near future. Iran became the second center of distribution of COVID-19 after China. However, the authorities, while imposing some restrictions, did not impose a strict isolation regime. Lack of quarantine in some areas led to the spread of the disease throughout the country.The forced closure of enterprises, air routes and even land borders led to significant financial losses, an increase in unemployment, and a decrease in the living standards of the population. The socio-economic crisis caused by the pandemic is of a global nature. It resulted in a drop in oil prices. The situation in is Iran is aggravated by the economic recession, due to oil export sanctions and reduction in country’s income which can lead to a sharp decline in economic activity and to a critical situation of the Iranian society. The government in the face of cuts of oil and non-oil revenues and taxes is trying to compensate for the loss of business and the population, but the US pressure does not allow it to receive financial assistance from international institutions, and the internal capabilities are limited. The government privatizes state property to obtain financial resources. The religious factor plays an important role in government programs. Islamic foundations also support the population.However, the closure of mosques and the restriction of religious activity displease Shiite clerics. Iranian society does not accept social distancing measures and does not apply special rules and . It is not ready refuse gatherings and meetings since their traditions are based on the principle of collectivism. In the context of the socio-economic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic there is a rise of radical trends in political sphere. All of the above trends may lead to instability and pose a threat to public security in the future. The emerging trends could pose a threat to the country's stability in the future.