Ensemble forecast of the development of thunderstorms in the north-west of European part of Russia and verification of modeling results
The article presents the results of an ensemble forecast of the development of thunderstorms using a low-dimensional convective cloud model. It is shown that the introduction of perturbations into the initial data leads to the development of clouds with different characteristics. In this case, the changes affect not only the maximum values in the course of cloud development, but also the very dynamics of development and the characteristics of the cells during the transition to the thunderstorm stage. The greatest variability was demonstrated by the microphysical parameters of precipitation and vertical velocities in the cloud. The modeling results showed a good agreement with the observational data and the advantages of the ensemble approach compared to the deterministic forecast.