RISK DIAGNOSTICS IN THE CONTEXT OF CONTROL AND SUPERVISORY ACTIVITY BY APPLYING OF BAYESIAN METHODS AND WALD’S SEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS
The article contents research results of application possibilities of methods of mathematical statistics while adapting of a risk-based approach within the frame of Control and Supervision Reform implementation. The possibilities of application of Bayes’ formula and Wald’s Sequential Analysis in order to precise mathematical probability of labeling of inspected organizations to this or that category of risk are considered. In order to choose of one of the considered methods the Author invites to proceed from the official test of a risk-oriented approach under Control and Supervision Reform. The Author offers to define the conditional probabilities in Bayes’ formula as a hit probability of occurrence frequency of violations in the interval of normally distributed values of this parameter. In its turn, the interval boundary is the condition for labeling of organizations to the one risk category or another. Author has come to conclusion that the method of consequential analysis should be preferably used if there is the information about values of several parameters (rather than one). At the same time, the application of this method will be restricted until the systematic evaluation of expenses which are incurred by audited organizations because of redundant control and supervision is realized.