THE PREDICTION AND OPTIMIZATION OF THE SYSTEM OF TRAINING IN THE FIELD OF OPERATION OF AIR TRANSPORT ON THE BASIS OF THE PRINCIPLES OF DUALITY AND EXPERT STATISTICAL MODELING
The paper discusses the challenge of improving the efficiency of the training system in the field of air transport. As the conceptual foundations of model-oriented approach to forecasting and optimization, this system is considered the principle of duality and multistep use of models. Optimization modeling is a partial implementation of the principle of duality due to the mechanisms of achieving efficiency of the training system: the reduction and transformation and the creation of the Bank's professional activities on the one hand associated with the characterization of work functions in the professional standards, and with another - reflects the formalized components of educational resources that are aimed at the formation of certain competences of personnel in the field of operation of air transport. As the main form of statistical information defining changes in the training system, it is proposed to use a time series of volume indices of the needs of the labor market in specialists with higher education and graduating from universities. Specified approaches for the calculation of forecasting evaluations with different quality. After receiving the results of forecasting on the basis of expert information are invited to build valuation models and conduct selection method that has the highest priority for this model.