Strong earthquake prediction within the south-western shelf of Sakhalin Island, and its realization during the August 2, 2007 Nevelsk earthquake
Materials of the long- and short-term predictions of the destructive earthquake with the magnitude MLH = 6.6 ± 0.6 within the south-western shelf of Sakhalin Island are described. The long-term prediction was issued in December 2005, and was affirmed by the Russian Council of Experts on earthquake forecast and seismic hazard assessment in August 2006. The August 17(18), 2006 Gornozavodsk earthquake with the magnitude MW = 5.6 was the beginning of realization of this forecast. After 6 days from its occurrence, short-term prediction of a much more serious seismic event in the alarm region was prepared. One year later the prediction proved to be correct with respect to the 2 August, 2007 Nevelsk earthquake with the magnitude MW = 6.2 (MLH = 6.2).