Modeling of arable in land fund structure using mathematical methods (on the example of Belgorod region)
There is a practice of transforming the land fund in our world. It depends on the economic and political course, contributes to the solution of management tasks, taking into account the quantitative state of land and with a forecast for the future. To solve these problems, it is necessary to assess the tightness of the connection, find a specific mathematical function and obtain an interval forecast for the value of the dependent. The existing models of the spatial dynamics of the land fund aimed either at a statistical description or at a spatial-transitional description. In this article describes the method of land fund transformation in the Belgorod region. The author constructed an equation for the dependence of the arable land area on other land holdings, also appreciated of the density and connection was made, an interval forecast of the arable land area by 2025 was obtained. Based on the results of the established correlation, factor loads and regression analysis, an equation for the dependence of the areal characteristics of arable land and other land holdings participating in the study was constructed. The connection equation is recognized as a model, since both the parameters and the equation as a whole are statistically significant, which means that the resulting model of transformation of the land fund can be used for forecasting purposes.