Quantitative Assessment and Analysis of Technogenic Environmental Risks
The possibilities of the risk-analysis using while estimating, forecasting and choosing the environmental hazard control activities of port construction are analyzed. It is shown that the most more reasonable way to estimate the environmental risk in probabilistic and cost terms is a sum of expectation values of the damage from implementation of alternative scenarios of ecologically harmful developments. The proposed method application is demonstrated on the example of preliminary assessment of the environmental impact of Avant ports of the Big Port of Saint-Petersburg. One of the most advantageous aspects of such approach is a possibility of strictly justified decision making concerning project and management issues that proceeds from the interrelation of values of the prevented environmental risk and required expenses.