METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS OF THE TEMPERATURE RANGE "NEAR 0ºС" UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WESTERN ARCTIC
Meteorological conditions of the temperature range “near 0?С” are very uncomfortable and, in some cases, dangerous. Probability functions describing joint distribution of two meteorological variables are employed (in different ways) for the comprehensive analysis of their features. The analysis showed that the set of wind speed extremes associated with temperature range “near 0?С” is a mixture of two different subsets. Each of subsets can be well described by the Weibull distribution. They are labeled “black swans” and “dragons” according to the modern metaphoric terminology. The set of precipitation amount associated with temperature range “near 0?С” consists of “black swans” only. The outputs of the Earth system model INM CM4 have no “dragons”. An important index characterizing meteorological conditions “near 0?С” is the dates of transition of temperature through the zero degree level in spring and in autumn. It was shown that the global warming leads to shifting of these dates. At the end of the 21st century, the shift will be one month in the south and two and a half months in the north along the transect crossing the Kola Peninsula athwart.