Forecasting Fire Risk in Forest Ecosystems Using Solar Activity Index
Improving forest ecosystems protection management based on a long-term fire hazard forecasting has been studied. Fires long-term dynamics in terms of quantity in various forests has been investigated. Fire risk patterns in forest ecosystems have been established conditional to regional characteristics due to solar period. Fire dynamics and solar periods analytics over multi-year period of time have brought to light that conditions contributing to a high fire frequency in Leningrad and Tver regional forest ecosystems arise in years with maximum and minimum solar activity. A long-term forecast of high forest fire danger periods for the next solar cycle has been performed through parameters of solar activity - Wolf numbers.