MODELING OF STRUCTURAL BREAKS IN THE PROBLEM OF FORECASTING THE DYNAMICS OF THE GLOBALIZATION INDEX
The work is devoted to modeling the dynamic relationship of globalization and the level of socio-economic development in Russia. Vector error correction models for short time series are considered. Analysis and modeling of structural changes, the using of special tests take a special place in the work. The results of the calculations are compared with the counterparts in Switzerland and the Netherlands. The bidirectionality of this connection is justified. The priority of separate processes of globalization is shown. The relations between its actual and institutional components are determined.