ADAPTIVE PREDICTION OF SPRING WHEAT GRAIN QUALITY IN THE FOREST-STEPPE ZONE WITH DIFFERENTIATION BY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION REGIMES
In a comprehensive agroecological assessment of spring wheat productivity cultivated in agrobiogeocenoses of the forest-steppe zone, an important place is given to the quality indicators of the obtained grain: the amount of grain gluten, the grain gluten deformation index, the number of grain α-amylase incidence, the grain nature. The theoretical approach proposed by the authors on adaptive interval analysis and prediction of agroecological objects was further developed in the formulated scientific hypothesis of the similarity of productivity and quality indicators of spring wheat related to the general object - the production process of spring wheat, limited by the temperature and precipitation conditions in this environment of agrobiogeocenosis. Obtaining predictive estimates of yield and quality indicators is based on measurements, calculations and prediction of the randomness of nature in field experiments. The developed mathematical apparatus of the hypothesis and the regularities revealed on its basis made it possible to explain possible variations in the amount of gluten, the fall number of α-amylase of grain, and other quality indicators of spring wheat acting in this environment for agrobiogeocenosis and in this interval of the growing season , temperature and precipitation modes. On the example of Novosibirsk 31 variety, the validity of the adaptive forecast of the group of spring wheat grain quality indicators as a group of similar indicators formed under the influence of temperature regimes, precipitation and other factors of the forest-steppe zone of the Krasnoyarsk Territory is substantiated. A computational experiment on the simulation of quality indicators, performed within the framework of the hypothesis and taking into account the probabilistic properties of the limiting factors of temperature and precipitation, has found special points of these indicators characteristic of the forest-steppe zone of the Krasnoyarsk Territory.