Rural Population of the Bryansk Region: Reproduction and Demographic Forecast
The decline in the population of the Bryansk region from 2010 to 2018 (at the beginning of the year) by 67 235 people equal to 5.3% is largely due to the decrease in the number of the rural population. The defining characteristic of demographic processes in the region is a low birth rate and a high mortality rate of population. Having such a regime of population reproduction, the Bryansk region needs an inflow of population. The natural decline and outflow of the rural population have affected to an increase in the number of small settlements, namely, endangered villages, with the population being older than the working age and with the less-developed social and economic infrastructure. There is no simple population reproduction in the village. The postponement of childbearing becomes more and more characteristic of it. The mortality rate of the rural population remains high (17.8‰). The most probable for the Bryansk region, by the beginning of 2036, the population will be reduced by 160.5 thousand people, including the rural population - by 93.6 thousand people according to the average forecast scenario. The region will be characterized by low birth rates, a reduction in mortality, an increase in life expectancy, which in turn, will lead to an increase in the average age of the population, including rural (its ageing) and a decrease in the number of working age population. Reducing the number of people in the working age can cause shortage of manpower in the labour market.