Forecasting of the sustainable socio-economic development level of rural areas on the basis of strategic planning
The purpose of this study is to justify areas and activities that contribute to increasing the level of sustainable socio- economic development of rural areas identified through strategic planning. During the research general scientific methods were used, including monographic, index, strategic planning, forecasting, analysis, comparison. The strategic directions for the development of rural areas are defined: improvement of the living conditions of the population, arrangement of rural areas by objects of social, engineering and road infrastructure. The scientific novelty of the study is the proposal of managerial decisions, reflected in the raise of individual indicators that contribute to increasing the level of sustainable socio-economic development of rural areas based on the identified directions. These indicators include: the value of the average monthly wage of employees, average annual population, agricultural production, the amount of investment in fixed capital, the level of gasification of rural settlements, the amount of housing space per rural resident, the level of provision in rural areas of preschool education. The growth rates of indicators were derived on the basis of the conducted analytical study for the period from 2010 to 2018 and the current economic situation. Based on the results of the long-term forecasting, higher sustainability indexes were calculated for each rural municipal district of the Chelyabinsk region. In general the index of sustainability of rural territories of the region will increase by 15.9 % to the end of 2030. The increase in the level of well-being and the improvement of the quality of life of the rural population is affected by the increase in the volume of agricultural production, population, investment, wages, the level of communal infrastructure provision and pre-school education. The practical application of this study results is the possibility of using the above calculations in the program and strategic documentation at the municipal and regional levels.