Models of optimal allocation of fire service human resources on the basis of territories fire risks typology
Introduction. The article is devoted to solving the interrelated problems of assessing the territorial situation of fires based on the approaches of the integral fire risks theory, the typology of territories on fire situation based on cluster analysis, the optimal distribution of human resources of the fire service in territorial clusters. The optimal distribution is based on the principles of the active systems theory. Methods. The study was conducted on the materials of Vietnam as a rapidly developing country with a fire situation that is complicated over time and has significant territorial differences. When solving the problem of typology takes into account the complex of factors reflecting economic, social, demographic, climatic indicators as well as indicators that account for the processes of urbanization, electrification, the development of trade and transport, provision of fire services personnel and technical means, characteristics of fires and fire fighting. The problem of typologization of Vietnam's provinces on characteristics of fire danger is given and its solution with the help of statistical software package Statistica 12 is found. An algorithm for solving the problem of territories typology by complex characteristics of fire danger is presented. Results. The selected clusters satisfy three conditions: compact location in Vietnam; similarity of socio-economic conditions and fire situation; similarity of their forces and means parameters. Specific performance indicators of fire service depending on the actual load on firefighter were investigated. Discussion. The complex specific indicator is formed, taking into account both the dead and injured in fires, which explains 82 % of the statistical data. Based on this indicator the goal function of territorial fire services and system target function that reflect efficiency of use of human resources is offered. Analytical dependences for the optimal distribution of human resources in clusters are found. Conclusions. Computational experiments have shown that the use of the human resources optimal allocation method developed in the article would reduce the complex specific indicator of the number of deaths and injuries in fires by about 10-12 % compared to the real situation.