APPLYING SYSTEM ANALYSIS METHODS FOR THE ESTIMATION OF FOREST FIRE THREATS
The paper presents a review of methods for controlling forest fire threats by way of modeling and system analysis. To solve this urgent problem it is proposed to reduce it to a set of sub-problems: modeling the spread of a forest fire, modeling smoke rates and environmental risks rates, estimation of health risks for the population, estimation of economic damage. Application of the proposed approach to the estimation of forest fire threats will help forecast the dynamics of the threat and estimate it, and also to take preventive measures that are adequate to the threat level.