DEFINITION OF FACTORS AND INDICATORS OF VOLUMES OF WATER IN THE TOKTOGULSKY RESERVOIR WITH USE OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS
This article analyzed so the volume of water of Toktogul Gus data and determined the forecast volume of water of the reservoir. Using, the calculation algorithm of the scalar method and multivariate regression equations created a mathematical model to predict the volume of water. Forecast to determine the amount of water trapped in the Toktogul reservoir (tv) belong to the class of complex objects with a large number of independent factors. To obtain adequate mathematical model predicted the number of the volume of water in the tv, it is necessary to reduce the list of factors to a minimum, because the increasing number of factors laboriousness modeling grows as power function. In this regard, the need to produce according to the following criteria: factor not affecting the target function and correlated factors (having a strong internal communications). To study this issue, use the information on the volume of water in the Toktogul reservoir for years. Results of studies have shown that the two methods of obtaining the equation multiple regression are adequate and allow us to conclude on the suitability of these methods (models) for predicting the volume of water accumulation.