The dynamics of state breakups: an experience of conceptual modeling
The breakups of the states end with either the deep territorial disintegration, or with complete re-establishment of the state at the site of the former state including possible secession of margins, the change of the metropolis location, but with preservation of the Heartland territory. The disintegration mechanism is treated here as an act of extremely acute antagonistic conflict, which is the result of repressive, violent strategies of political actors who often were originally aimed at restoring the stability and legitimacy of the government and the regime in the state, retaining its integrity. For an explanation of the breakup dynamics, the several conceptual schemes of phase transitions and the interaction of variables are used, while the schemes are presented in graphical form. As an empirical data, the two well known cases of state breakup are taken: the Russian Empire in 1917-1918 and Yugoslavia in 1989-1991 because they differ in almost all features and allow us to use the research strategy using the “only one similarity” method. In each conceptual scheme the main “white spot” is identified - this is the condition for choice of certain direction of dynamics. The attempts (good and bad) to generalize reasons leading in both cases to the collapse allow clarifying some of the underlying causes of state breakups.