Prediction of Physical Wear of Buildings
Methods for determining the increase with time in the percentage of physical wear of residential buildings on the basis of its average values for selected groups ofbuildings and specified time intervals are proposed. As initial information for statistic processing, the array of data collected at the Moscow city Bureau of technicalinventory (BTI) is used. To obtain reliable results, calculations are conducted for the groups of buildings with close time of construction beginning from the 1951year of commissioning. Averaging is made for time intervals of 5 years for buildings, the year of determining the wear percentage of which, is within these intervals.The results obtained demonstrate a good correlation between the nature of increase in the average percentage of wear and the construction period.For more newhouses the average wear in the current interval of averaging is always less than for houses of earlier construction. An analysis of increasing the wear percentagefor certain groups of residential buildings testifies the non-linear nature of this process due to aging of structures and systems. In general, there is a slowdown inthe rate of wear over time. At this, for each curve corresponding to a specific group of buildings it is possible to select a line graph of approximation the closestto it. A similar procedure for houses, where the overhaul was made, made it possible to assess the reduction in wear of residential buildings after the overhaul“transferred” to future years. This value doesn’t show clear correlation with the age of buildings and was close to 20% on average.