FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FORAGE PRODUCTION AND DAIRY CATTLE ASSOCIATED WITH IT USING THE METHODS OF ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING
Introduction. In modern conditions, the role of economic methods is increasing in forecasting the development of individual branches of agriculture. The Astrakhan region is located in the south of Russia in the arid zone. Two-thirds of the arable land in the region is not used. The predominant emphasis on the cultivation of vegetables and potatoes led to the manifestation of numerous problems in the crop production of the Astrakhan region. The accumulation of harmful objects, the decrease in soil fertility, the negative balance of humus endanger the main means of agricultural production - irrigated and rainfed arable land. In this regard, the role of economic and mathematical methods increases in optimizing the structure of sown areas, expanding forage crops in the regional agro-industrial complex, and overcoming the negative balance of humus. Objects. The object of research was the area of fodder crops, gross fodder yields, the number of cattle, including cows, and their milk productivity. Materials and methods. The study used methods of economic and mathematical modeling in order to predict the development of fodder production and dairy cattle breeding in the regional agro-industrial complex. Results and conclusions. The research results showed that the areas of fodder crops, fodder production, the number of cattle, including cows and milk production have a positive trend line. However, the growth rates are insufficient and the region in the next 5-10 years, if the observed trend continues, will not be able to ensure food security for the population in terms of milk and dairy products through domestic production.