Predictive epizootic situation modeling using fuzzy sets
According to the analysis of the factors contributing to the possible occurrence of outbreaks of influenza A in the territory of Taimyr, using the theory of fuzzy sets model predictive probability of epizootic it was built. The results show that the strongest (negative or positive) impact on the epizootic situation of influenza A in a particular area has the ease of migration routes (with respect to the meeting of the virus of influenza A during the migration), distance migration from wintering areas to breeding grounds degree predisposition species of birds to the virus of influenza A. it should be noted that the combined effect of several factors on the degree of influence commensurate with linear factors. The analysis of possible scenarios of infection. It showed that under favorable conditions for the development of epizootic diseases, the likelihood of the disease was 0.8 (80%), while the maximum impact of negative factors for the virus epizootic probability is 0.07 (6.67%) in the range of "average / above average "and 0.73 (73.3%) in the range of" average" The presented method opens up the possibility of further research perspectives for improving epidemiological modeling