DYNAMICS OF POPULATION SIZE AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE POPULATION IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC ZONES OF THE KRASNOYARSK TERRITORY
Long distance from North to South and uneven economic development of the Krasnoyarsk Territory conditioned division of the Territory into social and economic zones to consider peculiarities of economic development in elaborating the demographic policy. The aim of the study was to monitor demographic and health and population processes in the social and economic zones to adjust demographic policies and develop prognostic scenarios. Objectives of the study: to analyze dynamics in population size and peculiarities of population distribution due to geographical features of the economic complex in social and economic zones of the Krasnoyarsk Territory; to analyze age and sex structure of the population, sex ratio and demographic burden in the social and economic zones; to elaborate scenarios of projected changes in the age structure and population size at the mezzo-territorial and macro-territorial levels. Materials and methods: to meet the study's aim and objectives we used cartographic and statistical methods for data collection, processing and analysis of the information received. We used census data for 1989, 2002 and 2010, as well as current population data for the Krasnoyarsk Territory in 2012, databases of Rosstat and Territorial Office of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Krasnoyarsk Territory (Krasnoyarskstat). Results. In 1989 - 2002, the maximum decline in population was registered in the Northern social and economic zone and Norilsk. Migration outflow of the Krasnoyarsk Territory recently reduced, and a steady growth due to migration of Krasnoyarsk and the adjacent Central social and economic zone is being registered since 2008. In other zones migration population decline continues and increases in the latitudinal direction with its minimum rates in the Southern Zone and the maximum - in the Northern Zone. In 2012, positive changes in the sex ratio started to emerge both in urban and rural population. Increased number of children and people over the working age resulted in higher total demographic burden in urban and rural areas. Conclusions. In the coming years more than a twofold decrease in the number of females entering the reproductive age is expected against the projected decline in births. Under these conditions, prognosis of labor and reproductive potentials of the Krasnoyarsk Territory is only pessimistic. Extrapolating the projected changes in the age structure and population size to the situation in the social and economic zones we can assume that decrease in the population size across all zones except for Krasnoyarsk is likely to be the most actual prognosis.