Long-range forecasting at Hydrometeorological Center of Russia
The basic forecasting methods used in the operational practice of the Hydrometcentre of Russia are discussed. The special role of the development and improvement of hydrodynamic models to increase the predictability and to improve the quality of forecasts is emphasized. The main types of operational and experimental products issued by the Hydrometcentre of Russia and NEACC are presented. A statistical interpretation scheme for hydrodynamic forecasts obtained on the basis of the SL-AV model is implemented in the framework of the MOS concept in order to improve the quality of surface temperature and precipitation forecasts. The important role of ensemble (including multimodel) forecasting systems for predicting the characteristics of extreme meteorological phenomena on seasonal and intra-seasonal time scales is shown. The potential of predicting heat waves on intraseasonal (up to 45 days) time intervals based on the hydrodynamic modeling is demonstrated. The examples of consensus forecasts issued during the sessions of the North Eurasian Climate Forums are presented. The main directions and prospects of further development and improvement of long-term forecasting methods are outlined.