Uncertainties and risks of gas field development design and management
Risk management has currently become one of the most important functions of control of gas organizations. The risk classification based on sources of occurrence described in the paper allows to evaluate the efficiency of this or other risk management schematic and innovation projects in general. A gas field being developed is a multi-purpose complex system of a single life cycle with uncertainties. It is extremely important to evaluate risks, develop and fulfill measures for their mitigation, i.e. «manage risks» for systems of such type. Evaluation of the probability of the risk degree requires a large volume of statistic information which is most frequently absent. In this case decisions are made in uncertainty conditions, when the probability of this or other result is unknown. Risk management is a special situation of uncertainty management when making decisions on design and control of functioning of systems solving poorly structured problems. The paper gives a list of uncertainties which gas field development design and control specialists need to deal with. The risk during the decision making process occurs as the result of uncertainty. Measures for risk management during gas field development are proposed. Logical stages of risk management are given. Attention is drawn to the value of strategic and operational risks. A conclusion on the necessity of risk calculation at all field design and operation stages and their obligatory evaluation when choosing an alternative in development designs is made.