Issues of considering the interval uncertainty in evaluating the efficiency of investment projects in Russia’s non-stationary economy
Importance Investment projects often allow increasing production volumes, cutting costs, solving some environmental, social issues and accelerating the pace of economic growth at the level of the entity and the State. Implementation of innovation often turns to be a long and expensive process. That is why it is so important to select projects at the pre-investment stage. Whereas the project is evaluated before its implementation, and indicators and scenarios are not clear, it is important to assess uncertainty and risks. The research focuses on the interval uncertainty that is especially interesting as one of the most frequent situations, when possible effects are known, but not the probability of their occurrence. Objectives The research determines issues of contemporary methods and models for evaluating the efficiency of investment projects under the interval uncertainty in the non-stationary economy of Russia. Methods Using methods of systems analysis, I investigate national and foreign literature on the interval uncertainty. Results I make up a pivot table on approaches to considering the interval uncertainty, and describe weaknesses in the Hurwicz criterion used in Russia. The article presents a critical analysis of the criterion substantiation, indicating weaknesses. I suggest using a more specific concept of the interval uncertainty, thus reducing the frequency of using this model. Conclusions and Relevance The article demonstrates the need to further develop approaches to evaluating the efficiency of projects under risks and uncertainty, and formulating a more accurate method for considering the interval uncertainty. The method should implement the above comments, thus increasing the quality and reasonableness of investment solutions.