ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE BIRTH RATE IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
The article is devoted to the current issue of fertility in Russia. Based on state statistics, the dependence of the birth rate in the regions of Russia on the following social economic factors was studied: population growth rates, real money incomes of the population, the number of children per woman, the unemployment rate among women, and the marriage rate. The article deals with the birth rate statistics in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, as well as analyzed the regions that showed the best and worst results. With the help of econometric modeling methods, a model that investigates the influence of these factors on the birth rate in Russian subjects has been constructed. The choice of inclusion of each factor in the model is explained. An assessment of the quality and accuracy of this model is given, the degree of influence of each individual factor on the resultant attribute is determined. Based on the data of confidence intervals, regions that are out of the general trend are highlighted. With their help, conclusions about the reasons for theleadership of certain regions against the background of a general decline in the birth rate throughout the country were made, the regions, in which the low birth rates in which played a decisive role in the process of reducing the birth rate, were highlighted.