Short-term tsunami forecast on the shore of Far East
The coast of the Far East is subject to such a dangerous natural phenomenon like the tsunami. Tsunamis are a danger not only to the population, onshore facilities, vessels at piers, but also for objects near the shoreline, on the shelf.The problem is as follows. The tsunami alarm should be declared timely and selectively only for coastal areas where the tsunami will be of a real threat. According to modern concept, the short-term tsunami forecast consists in a quantitative estimate of any property of the tsunami hazard that is made in advance. Properties that may be forecasted include the time of initial wave arrival, the time of maximum wave arrival, the amplitude of the maximal tsunami waves, and the duration of the tsunami hazard.The proposed method of tsunami forecast allows for detailed forecasting of the expected tsunami at any point based on information about the tsunami in the open ocean. The method operates in real time. To make the forecast, only data on location of the earthquake epicenter are required from the seismological service.The efficiency of the proposed method was confirmed by numerical experiments on modeling the operational forecasting of the 2011 Tohoku and 2014 Chile tsunamis.The method can be used both by regional tsunami warning service and by any facility, having access to the open-ocean level data in a real-time mode.