Удосконалення економіко-математичного моделювання результатів впровадження окремих елементів адаптивної антикризової політики компаній транспортної галузі України
In the article the dynamics of capacity of the transport industry in Ukraine is being analyzed, it is proved that the onset of crisis phenomena in the domestic transport industry correlates with macroeconomic crises (with a certain time lag). That is, the sectoral crisis phenomena in the transport and forwarding business is caused not so much by the influence of domestic factors that systematically restrain the work of domestic enterprises, but the impact of either global crises (2008-2009) or national military-political confrontations (2013-2015). The last type of crisis are force majeure circumstances with which classical methods and methods of crisis management are ineffective. That is, the whole range of issues of developing a comprehensive concept of crisis management logistics, corresponding economic-mathematical and informational support in the conditions of Ukrainian crisis systemic phenomena remains the current and unsolved problem. Taking into account national specifics, industry specifics of the transport industry and taking into account the current political and macroeconomic crisis. The article presents the results of research on two important and interrelated issues in the context of modeling the results of implementation of the adaptive anti-crisis strategy of domestic TECs (Transport-Expeditionary Companies), namely: improvement of the estimation model of the change in the results of the cumulative objective influence of external crisis factors and components of subjective anticrisis policy on the integrated result of logistics activity of an enterprise. As a result of crisis management, it is not just a change in revenue, profit, profitability, but a change in the predicted index of integrated financial stability; improvement of the estimated model of change in the overall current reserves of TEC in the framework of the implementation of anti-crisis measures of risk management (which will improve its financial stability through the possibility of releasing the formed reserves). The proposed multiplier ratio of the formed reserves of the existing economic risk is highly dependent on the audit results, the specifics of the particular transport company and the objectives of the adopted anti-crisis strategy. The results of the research of the improvement of the economic-mathematical modeling in crisis management in the transport sector, namely, the simulation and / or analysis of the results of the implementation of the adaptive anti-crisis strategy of domestic TECs, will allow to provide an adequate and systematic multimodal response to crisis phenomena. The results of the study which are presented in the article can be used both by domestic transport expeditionary companies and foreign companies in foreign markets of developing countries that are under the influence of similar phenomena of a political and a macroeconomic crisis.