RESEARCH OF THE DYNAMICS OF RUSSIAN GDP IN THE CONDITIONS OF DIGITALIZATION OF THE ECONOMY
In the course of the study, a nonlinear dependence of the GDP dynamics on the increase in freight turnover was revealed. A regression model has been developed that determines the value of GDP depending on the dynamics of freight turnover. It should be stated that in Russia there is a rather low level of application of digital innovations, in comparison with foreign companies in developed countries, and continues to remain at a low level. Purpose. A hypothesis was put forward and proved that using a mathematical model, it is possible to obtain a forecast of Russia’s GDP for the next year based on the use of both a linear regression model reflecting the dependence of the GDP value on the dynamics of freight turnover, and using the AI-model “perceptron”, which includes the aggregate data reflecting the development of the economy. Method or methodology of the work. The work used research methods such as: monographic, analytical, linear regression and nonlinear mathematical model, as well as analysis, study and generalization. Results. A developed AI model (artificial intelligence model) “Perceptron” is presented, designed to predict Russia’s GDP based on input parameters representing a set of data reflecting the development of the real sector of the Russian economy in 2011-2019, including the dynamics of freight turnover. The experience of using artificial intelligence systems for forecasting time series, including the RF GDP, is considered. Field of application of the results: economics, financial sphere, forecasting and planning of economic and financial activities, economic security