DYNAMICS OF DANGEROUS SNOWFALL IN THE PERM REGION FOR THE PERIOD 1969-2013
The analysis of main characteristics (incidence and intensity) of very heavy snowfalls during 1969-2013 in the Perm region is carried out. Very heavy snowfall is a dangerous weather phenomenon of winter season. Study of this phenomenon has important social and economic value. Predictability of dangerous phenomena in advance is the most important problem of meteorology. The main method of the dangerous phenomena forecast is still synoptic-statistical, that is why knowledge of climatic distribution of main characteristics of dangerous snowfalls is necessary. Calculation of incidence and average intensity of dangerous snowfalls is carried out, their dynamics is shown, spatial distribution and temporary variability are analyzed. For the estimation of spatial distribution the schematic maps were built using the Surfer program on the basis of interpolation by the Kriging method. The peculiarities concerning a geographical position and a structure of a relief are revealed. It is established that the greatest frequency of very heavy snowfall incidence was fixed in the 70-90th years of the XX century. The tendency to a significant decrease of this phenomenon recurrence is revealed.