ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF THE MARKET OF EXPORTED SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL PRODUCTS USING THE EXAMPLE OF AN INDIVIDUAL ENTERPRISE
The article substantiates the possibility of evaluating the market of exported scientific and engineering products using the example of the STATE ENTERPRISE "STATE INSTITUTE FOR DESIGNING ENTERPRISES OF COKE OVEN AND BY-PRODUCT PLANTS" (SE "GIPROKOKS"). The correlation models have been developed for the rate of changes of the SE "GIPROKOKS" scope of works, performed using the funds of foreign customers, depending on the rates of global steel production. The optimal model has been selected among them. A forecast model of changing global steel production has been constructed. The complex of indices has been calculated, which describe the forecast accuracy and adequacy of the obtained economic and mathematical models; the statistical significance of the model parameters has been evaluated. In order to assess the expected growth rate of work performed by the SE "GIPROKOKS" using the funds of foreign customers in future periods, the correlation-regression model received in the course of study may be used to reflect the dependence of this value on the rate of global steel production with 2 years' time lag. In its turn the forecast of global steel production can be made according to the trend forecast model received on the basis of the initial data for the time span from 1980 to 2015. It is clear that such forecast will not be scholastic only in the process of consistent overcoming of crisis instabilities which are characteristic of recent years' havoc development of the world economy. Directions of further study as a logical continuation of the present one can be as follows: substantiation of the feasibility of using individual methods for the forecast of the innovative market development in its individual components; further improvement of the system for measuring innovative activity and development of the innovative market facilities considering improvements in the statistical forms of reporting; developing methods for simultaneous comparison of the innovation market development in its individual components.