Falsifiability of scientific theories and the Duhem problem. (Analytical review)
The criterion of falsifiability is the cornerstone of the methodological doctrine of K. Popper. According to Popper, a theory is falsifiable and, therefore, scientific if there is at least one statement describing some phenomena in the world with which the prediction derived from this theory is incompatible. If falsified, the theory must be rejected. However, P. Duhem showed that scientific theories are tested experimentally only in conjunction with a number of auxiliary assumptions, the truth of which is implicitly assumed by the experimenter. At the same time, the result of the experiment, which contradicts the predictions of the system «theory and auxiliary assumptions», does not in itself say which component of this system is false. Identifying faulty components is what constitutes the Duhem problem. A promising way to solution of this problem may be associated with the application of Bayes' theorem and the methods of mathematical probability theory and statistics.