The Iranian Deal Fate: D. Trump and Interest Groups
The article is devoted to the study of the process of discussing in the U.S. the possibility and need to revise the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015 by the international group of mediators “5+1” and Iran. In the context of the history of forming and basic parameters of the JCPOA the authors analyze the evolution of the President D. Trump’s attitude toward the agreement, policy of his administration, as well as basic understandings of the present and future of the Iranian deal of those interest groups (conservatives, neocon-servatives, realists, and neoliberals), which participate in forming the American foreign policy. It is underscored in the article that the American foreign policy elite turns out to be divided on the issue of the viability of the Iranian deal. The conservatives and neoconservatives demand the total withdrawal from the JCPOA and conclusion a new agreement, which would prevent the revival of the Iranian nuclear program. The Republican realists support the deal, however they see the possibility to preserve it only in the context of providing the regional balance of power. The neoliberals and their Democratic allies totally oppose the withdrawal from the agreement, because it can lead to heavy strategic losses for the U.S. and guarantee restarting the Iranian nuclear program. It is concluded that, if Democrats succeed in the 2018 midterm elections, the groups can start searching the bipartisan consensus.