Progress and Decline of Insurgent Groups: The Case of the Free Syrian Army
The article examines the Free Syrian Army, one of the largest Syrian insurgent group that takes part in armed conﬂict against Bashar al-Assad’s government. The article reveals how the nature and characteristics of this insurgent group aﬀected its development during the Syria Civil War. The ﬁrst part of the article provides a general background of the group and its principles. The following part sketches out the theoretical framework providing the necessary anchor for the main hypothesis explored in the article, namely that the nature and character of the insurgent group determine its subsequent evolution. Starting from the assumption that there are three diﬀerent types of insurgent groups: political, religious and ethnic, the article focuses on the diﬀerences between the creation of ethnic and non-ethnic groups and deﬁnes how the nature of the group aﬀects the development of the Free Syrian Army. Furthermore, the article provides an analysis of how, between 2012 and2018, this insurgent group was able to manage and control its territory, develop its military potential and inﬂuence the numbers of its members. Finally, the Free Syrian Army is compared with another insurgent group, the 19th of April Movement (M-19), active in Colombia during 1970s-1990s. Through this lens, the article argues that by looking at the nature of an insurgent group, it can be possible to predict its capacity and chances of success.