Macroeconomic Policy: Effect of Exceeding Difficulty
The aim of the study. Modern macroeconomic policy, based on very complex models, seems to have reached the peak of theoretical perfection, however, the power of its influence and success leaves much to be desired. There are numerous assessments that economic policy does not work, does not lead to a result - the achievement of the goal, they force us to return to the origins - the principle of «goals-tools», having considered its expanded interpretation and criticism. The purpose of the study is a theoretical analysis of the model-instrumental problems of developing economic policy, with the identification of the «effect of exceeding complexity», which in fact determines the entire set of discussions in this area, with the help of which the necessity of applying the principle of goals and instruments is substantiated. The research methodology is Tinbergen's theory of economic policy. The result is a substantiation of the limitations in «criticism of Lucas», as well as in Mundell’s «effective market classification», which has long been viewed as an extended version of the principle of goals and instruments. A model of system dynamics is presented, which makes it possible to demonstrate the presence of relationships between its parameters, revealing the impossibility of taking into account the entire set of feedback mechanisms. At the same time, the usefulness of direct formulations, without taking into account the entire set of relationships, is a useful tool for obtaining basic relationships and identifying the main properties of the system, which can then be adjusted taking into account additional circumstances. The fact that models have the opposite property to the «over-complexity effect» is sometimes more useful than overestimated complexity, which limits the adequacy of the model on a larger scale than simplicity. Economics tries to combat complexity through an increasing specialization of knowledge, but this must mean differentiating instruments in an effort to achieve mutually determinative development goals.