The concept of technical scientific and technological cycles
Objectives The purpose of the article is to develop approaches to forecasting of the hypothetical 7th and higher technological modes and cycles. The tasks to be solved consist in identification of the essence and trends of the process of recurrence of development of open social and economic systems, and also the factors influencing this process for their use when forecasting hypothetical, and technological modes and cycles, which are higher in comparison with the existing ones. Methods To solve the assigned tasks, I used the analysis and synthesis, and also the methods of logical historical research, and a trend method. The novelty of the article is the development of a technical scientific and technological production cycles concept, periodization of which is based on the dominating power sources used in the corresponding production cycles. Despite all importance of the recurrence of the modern global economy development for problems of forecasting revealed by N.D. Kondratyev, its model (as well as any stochastic model) only studies the behavior of a system in the closed environment. Results The appearing new economic concepts, doctrines and models often complicate reality to such degree that economists are not only able to predict an approaching crisis, but also able rather precisely predict the change of separate parameters of business cycles. Such models not always allow revealing the essence, genesis, structure of the open system, studied behavior, the logics of its interaction with other systems, etc. Conclusions and Relevance Taking into account the ongoing financial and economic crises, it is necessary to organize the effective policy of the crisis prevention and crisis management, which is based on the ability to predict emergence of crisis and to select the economic tools, which allow in advance initiating and supporting it.