Foresight R&D as basis of naval developments
Object and purpose of research. This paper studies main principles and methods of naval developments, as well as general approaches to foresight R&Ds and their current challenges, and also the role of conceptual design as the final stage of these preliminary studies. The purpose of this work is to investigate the role of foresight R&D projects and their readiness levels upon the process of naval developments, as well as to ensure their improvement and steady advance. Materials and methods. The study follows the analytical method based on system analysis principles. Main results. The paper formulates main conditions that determine key role and critical effect of foresight R&Ds and their readiness levels upon the process of naval developments, as well as upon their improvement and steady advance. Case studies in this paper are Krylov State Research Centre developments in naval shipbuilding based on the principles and methods incorporated to the regulatory documents, including the principle of the necessity to pursue foresight R&Ds. Conclusion. Naval developments take a long time and require more and more resources, so their rational organization becomes a matter of utmost importance. Foresight R&Ds play a key role in conceptual design. However, appropriate and timely improvements of their readiness levels at later design stages remain a difficult task, often hindering the progress and creating risks. Adopted regulating documents contain all necessary provisions that determine the procedure of a naval R&D project, and their thorough implementation is a sure way to risk mitigation. Currently, Russian shipbuilding is working out organizational mechanisms intended to ensure foresight R&Ds which, along with proper execution of early design stages (preliminary studies and conceptual design), are a key to success in a naval project of whatever difficulty.