Methodological Approaches to Forecasting Fixed Assets Reproduction and Investments Demand of the JSC RZD for the Long Range Period
The paper tackles the proposed methodological approaches to forecasting investment outlay needed for implementation of various reproduction scenarios of the JSC RZD fixed assets (FA). In the capacity of such scenario there may be regarded writing-off all the FA objects lying outside the service life term towards the end of the forecasting period, reaching the predetermined FA objects’ wear degree towards certain date, introduction of FA objects in accord with the company investment opportunities etc. The discussed methodological approaches rely on comprehensive forecasting system of the FA reproduction process and JSC RZD investment outlay, implemented with use of cost indicators (initial and depreciated costs, acquisitions and disposals as well as depreciation of FA) together with natural indices as calculated employing the data of statistical and other types reporting. Contemporary use of natural indices and cost indicators while forecasting the FA reproduction allows for lowering the uncertainty level at increase in the forecasting period duration as well as probability of various errors and tolerances. However not all the FA groups (subgroups) are subject to calculations with use of natural indices due to absence of necessary reporting. The developed methodological approaches consider that reproduction process implies not only the task of refunding cut-out FA but also the task of improving the FA species composition and plant-equipment ratio (i. e. that increase in engineering level of the JSC RZD incorporated enterprises may be observed). Various models evaluation of the JSC RZD owned FA relying on the developed methodological approaches is exercised by way of multiple-path calculations playing out FA reproduction alternatives. This makes possible to select optimal FA reproduction version and respective investment outlay basing upon the specified criteria.