Milk yield potential, viability and efficacy of milk production: quantitative estimates and modeling
In the paper, it is substantiated the application of quantitative indices to estimate and predict the total resistance, whole life milk productivity, rate of the herd turnover and efficiency of milk production. The parametrization of early proposed algorithmic model was completed, and its verification was carried on in series of numeric experiments using factual data on turnover of Kholmogor breeding herd. It was indicated that viability parameters estimated on the basis of cows culling in studied group or population of cows, may be used with the aim to predict the age dynamics of 305 d milk yield and whole life milk yield, with inclusion in model two additional linear functions of length of productive life: 1) the increase in the potential of resistance and 2) the decline in the potential of productivity. Predicted values of the whole life milk yield, with the use of interpolated indices, were coincided with the values obtained using factual data, within deviations of 5-6 percent.