LONG-TERM HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION FOR THE NOVOSIBIRSK WATER RESERVOIR.
Description of the model for prediction of water runoff and discharge in the region of Novosibirsk reservoir is presented. The model is based on linear and piecewise linear recovery of functions using minimum average risk criterion. Filling of a formal model with physical content was performed using various meteorological and hydrological parameters for prediction of water runoff and discharge at a 4-month lead. Experiments at 6 predicted months (August-September) were performed, and prediction estimates for the period of 2004-2008 were obtained. Analysis of the obtained results testifies to a relative prediction success.