Contamination of agricultural lands in Bryansk, Kaluga, Orel and Tula regions with <sup>137</sup>Cs as a result of the Chernobyl accident: current status and prognosis
Data on the current statues of agricultural lands in Bryansk, Kaluga, Orel and Tula regions contaminated with radiocesium as a result of the Chernobyl accident are presented in the article. Only 17% of agricultural companies located in 11 affected rayons of the four regions are currently engaged in agribusiness on lands with density of radiocesium contamination <37 kBq/m<sup>2</sup> (1 Ci/m<sup>2</sup>). The highest <sup>137</sup>Cs contamination levels are in the south-west rayons of Bryansk region, the maximum level is 1600 kBq/m<sup>2</sup>. The authors give estimation of future change in radiocesium contamination density in arable lands, grasslands and pasturelands in the rayons located in the affected regions. From 2015 overall reduction of weighted average density of radiocesium contamination of agricultural lands by 30% is expected to be in 2030. From 2030 75% of agricultural lands in 11 affected rayons in Bryansk, Kaluga, Orel and Tula regions will be related to zones of radioactive contamination. According to authors’ estimates in 42% of 231 agricultural properties in affected rayons radiocontamination level below 37 kBq/m<sup>2 </sup>is expected to 2050, in 88% of properties - to 2100 and 99% - to 2150. Complete decontamination of agricultural lands in Kaluga, Orel and Tula regions is expected to be achieved to 2090 and in Bryansk region - to 2180.