The probability of strong (M≥7.5) earthquakes in fault zones of Central Asia (tectonophysical analysis)
Based on the data on seismically active faults of Central Asia, the authors apply the Gutenberg-Richter law to study regularities of seismicity in large seismically active fault zones. Cumulative recurrence plots are constructed for earthquakes recorded only in the areas of active dynamic influence of the specified faults. Special attention is paid to changes in slope angles of the recurrence plots at the transition to the area of strong magnitudes. It is noted that the right-side end of the plot (i.e. distribution tail) becomes steeper or less steep relative to the main distribution for small magnitudes. The degree of non-linearity and the forms of the recurrence plot tail are used to rank the faults of Central Asia by potential relative seismic hazard. It is shown that the highest seismic hazard is associated with the faults that control earthquakes with magnitudes M>7.5, which recurrence plots show a trend to decrease the slope angle of the regression line in the area of strong magnitudes. It is highly probable that such earthquakes may reoccur in the fault zones in the next 50-100 years.