Status and development prospects of the feed industry in the Russian Federation
Purpose. Analysis of the state and forecast of possible scenarios of the development of the feed industry in the Russian Federation. Methods. The following research methods were used in the work: analysis, comparison, induction and deduction, strategic forecasting. The studies were carried out on the basis of materials presented on the information resources of the Federal State Statistics Service, the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia, the Federal Customs Service of Russia, the Union of Feed Makers of Russia. Based on the analysis of the condition, trends and patterns of development of the feed industry, possible scenarios of changes in the industry are predicted under certain conditions. Results. The production volumes of compound feeds, premixes and protein-vitamin-mineral supplements in the Russian Federation for 2011-2018 are given. The dynamics of changes in the number of pigs, cattle and production volumes of poultry meat is shown. More than half of compound feeds in Russia are produced by 25 enterprises, and the components from which premixes are made are imported. The average prices for compound feeds for pigs, cattle and poultry for 2013-2018 are presented. In 2018, 4.5 million tons of feed were exported from Russia, of which 3 million tons are meal and cake from sunflower, soybean, rape, as well as beet pulp, only 110 thousand tons of finished mixed feed were exported. The data on gross grain harvest in the Russian Federation as the main filler of animal feed are given. The development of the feed industry will be facilitated by an increase in the sown area of promising crops with a high content of protein - soy and lupine. Scientific novelty. The main problems that hinder the development of the feed industry are identified and three development scenarios are proposed - pessimistic, optimistic and most likely. The directions of the work of feed mills and science, as well as measures of state support that promote the development of the industry in an optimistic development scenario, are proposed.