ECONOMETRIC ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE NON-OBSERVED ECONOMY OF MOLDOVA
The non-observed economy is an integral part of the modern economic system, representing a threat to economic security in conditions of slow stagnation. The relevance of this study lies in the fact that the identification of factors influencing the non-observed economy makes it possible to develop proposals to combat this phenomenon. At the same time, some problems in econometrically modeling the dependence of the non-observed economy on socio-economic indicators are highlighted. The novelty and purpose of the study is the construction of models with one equation, where the endogenous variable is the level of the non-observed economy in value terms and the share of the non-observed economy in GDP. The main research methods are regression analysis and economic and mathematical modeling. At the first step of the study, the identified main factors of influence that determine the size of the shadow economy in twenty-eight countries of the world were systematized. In the next step, exogenous variables were identified based on the statistical data published by the National Bureau of Statistics of Moldova. The econometric analysis software EViews 9 was used to develop the models of the dependence of the non-observed economy in Moldova on socio-economic indicators. Single-equation models were tested and checked first-order and second-order autocorrelation of the regression errors and heteroscedasticity. The constructed models showed that the growth of the main sectors of the national economy and an increase in the unemployment rate lead to the growth of the non-observed economy in Moldova, while the rise in foreign trade turnover, namely imports, negatively affects the endogenous variable. There is a negative relationship between the freight turnover and the level of the non-observed economy.