Markov’s expert logical analysis applied to choose geological objects for their development
The article considers a multicriteria problem of objects choice with account of geological and economic risks that can be caused by the uncertainty of the data used. Models and methods of hierarchies and analytical networks analysis (AHP and ANP), widely used in the economics, can be effectively applied for construction of probabilistic models of geological objects in oil and gas companies’ strategy planning. The typical logic diagrams for uncertainty coefficients of porosity, gas-saturation, mean power of a reservoir and gas-bearing area are proposed. These uncertainty coefficients are aimed at accounting of the uncertainties parameters in the well-known formula for calculation of the initial and recoverable gas reserves from gas-bearing deposits. It is shown that analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and analytic network process (ANP) are the special cases of Markov chains (MC). It allows to apply powerful mathematical methods of MC theory in practical researches and stimulate the progress in researching the problems of multicriteria choice in decision making theory that arise in various spheres.