South Korea between China and the USA
Tensions between the United States and China are worsening, so both sides are actively assembling a “support group”. In this context, the strengthening of the confrontation between Washington and Beijing puts Seoul in an unpleasant situation of choosing one from two greater evils. The United States are the main military and political ally and suzerain of the Republic of Korea (RK) in terms of the orientation of the majority of South Korean elite. China is a leading trading partner and the only lever of influence on North Korea. The course for a tough confrontation between the superpowers began under D.Trump administration, but has not changed since the change of presidents. The pressure of the United States on the RK is carried out in several directions: joining anti-Chinese sanctions in the economic sphere, strengthening the military presence, and participating in the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue of the USA, Japan, India and Australia). In turn, Beijing is als trying to pull Seoul in its direction, mainly through “soft power” and economic cooperation. Like the United States, it seeks to include South Korea in its economic structures. However, on the political front, his demands are rather not for the accession of the Republic of Korea to anti-American structures, but for a more independent policy from the United States. The experts of the Republic of Korea are trying to find a strategy that allows Seoul to please both sides, or to exit with least losses. But to say “we need a new strategy” is much easier than to describe the strategy in detail. The first point of view is that Korea should stop flirting with China and should fully support its strategic ally - the USA. The second is that Seoul must maneuver, maintaining contacts with both Beijing and Washington. Although South Korea has not yet decided on an explicit choice of the side, in the future, Seoul's joining the American projects is inevitable. South Korea will continue to demonstrate the independence of its foreign policy until the last moment, but in the end it will choose Washington.