DETERMINING THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPING RESPIRATORY DISORDERS IN NEWBORNS FROM MOTHERS WITH TYPE 1 DIABETES MELLITUS USING A MATHEMATICAL MODEL
Advances in obstetrics and endocrinology have made it possible to prolong pregnancy in women with diabetes mellitus (DM). However, the risks of adverse perinatal outcomes are still significantly higher. The purpose of the study is to develop and validate a predictive model for determining the likelihood of developing severe respiratory disorders in children born from mothers with type 1 diabetes mellitus. We examined 136 newborns from mothers with DM1. The main group (n=101) was divided into group 1 (n=45) with severe respiratory disorders and group 2 (n=56) - comparisons. The control of the correct operation of the model was carried out on an examination sample (n=35). Based on multivariate regression analysis, it was found that the most significant predictors are anemia of pregnant woman, gestational age and delivery by emergency caesarean section, z-score of body weight at birth, respiratory failure, hematological parameters. A predictive model for determining the probability of a severe course of respiratory disorders containing 4 parameters was developed, and its threshold value (0.467) was calculated. The diagnostic accuracy of the developed model was 84.1 % (95% CI 76.2-91.9 %). A classification scheme has been created that allows on the basis of scoring to classify an infant as a particular risk group