Economic factors of mortality and life expectancy
The aim of the article is to demonstrate the capabilities of public methods of mathematical statistics to identify economic factors of mortality and life expectancy. The author substantiates the possibility to analyze and predict mortality and life expectancy based on economic factors. He offers economic methods of analyzing and predicting mortality and does not neglect the theories of "demographic transition", "epidemic transition", traditional methods of development and use of "tables of mortality". The method of statistical analysis and prediction of mortality and life expectancy based on the methods of linear correlation and selection of coefficients of the regression equations is provided. The equations of interrelations between the overall mortality rate and life expectancy with the GDP per capita indicator were developed. Alternative forecasts of the overall mortality rate and life expectancy were developed based on the official GDP forecasts. It was concluded that the mortality rate may decline again, and life expectancy will reach the standard indicator of 79 years (by 2036), but only if the GDP growth rate reaches the standard values established by the Ministry of Economic Development in the forecast until 2036.