Comparative analysis of the multi-year evolution of the principal vine diseases in Crimea
To simulate future scenarios of mildew and oidium progression on vines in a changing climate, major patterns have been established for seasonal and long-term (1987-2018) dynamics of the diseases in the vineyards of Crimea. The multi-year mildew dynamics in the ampelocenoses of the southwestern viticultural zone demonstrate continuity and uneven progression of the disease by years with a high rainfall dependence (r = 0.73-0.8) between May and August. Oidium in the vineyards of the South Coast has been evolving continuously and relatively constantly; it moderately depends on relative air humidity in May (r=0.52). The seasonal dynamics of the epiphytotic mildew process is governed by hydrothermal conditions, and vary greatly by years; for oidium, a relative continuity of the process and a shift in the onset of the disease to earlier periods were established, which is caused by climate change.