METHODOLOGY FOR ASSESSING THE RISK OF NOT ACHIEVING THE TARGETS FOR HOUSING IN THE CONTEXT OF THE PANDEMIC
Authors propose a method for assessing the risk of not reaching the planned indicators building of the total volume of housing in the Russian Federation, the main stages of implementation of which include modeling and verification of the model, model point and interval forecasting, forecast analysis, and risk assessment. The mathematical model of change of volume of dwelling-place is built on the retrieval of statistical data from 2005 to 2020. The construction of the model and executed prognostication are carried out by means of ППП Excel. A regressive analysis and least-squares method are fixed on the basis of the construction of the model. Comparison of prognosis and according to plan values of the area was shown, that plans on 2021-2022 were within the limits of the confidence interval and it will be executable with the different degree of risk, and plans on 2023-2024 have a maximal level of risk and are is unattainable. They require a revision considering development in the country of pandemic and possible decline of a number of workers in the building of dwellings building due to emigrants.