MODERN MODELS FOR ASSESSING THE PROBABILITY OF BANKRUPTCY AND THEIR USE IN THE AUDIT OF ENTERPRISES
The article studies modern models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy and identifies the feasibility of their use in auditing the activities of enterprises. The levels of tools for diagnosing bankruptcy of an enterprise - the state level, the scientific level. The classification of models for assessing the risk of bankruptcy of enterprises according to various criteria in the context of Russian and foreign practices is carried out. Foreign models: based on accounting data, rating, actuarial, based on market value. Domestic models: quantitative and qualitative. To assess the probability of bankruptcy, one or several models are used, grouped by groups: the first group is the multiple discriminant analysis models (mda models), the second group is the logistic regression models (logit models), the third group is the expert solvency assessment model, and the fourth group rating models. The choice of a particular model is determined individually for enterprises, depending on the conformity of activity, the scale of the enterprise and the model chosen by the analyst. It is proved that each bankruptcy forecasting model has its own specifics, based on industry specifics of the business activity of the country in which it is most used. The negative consequences of applying one or another foreign model in the activities of Russian enterprises are determined. It is substantiated that the most adapted to the realities of the functioning of domestic enterprises models for determining the probability of bankruptcy include the model of R. Sayfullin and G. Kadykov, the model of the PAS coefficient, Tuffler and Tishou, the Altman model, the Springate model and the Lis model.