Regional innovation security as a coherence of multi-cyclic self-organizing: experience in building an ideal model
The article reflects the results of constructing an ideal synchronization model of regional economic reproduction subcycles. Achieving coherence through the mechanisms of self-organization and self-regulation is viewed to be the means of overcoming geo-economic instability. The study models the phase conjugation of information and innovation subcycle with the production and investment one, organizational one and human capital dynamics. Based on logical imitation modeling, the research identifies the conditions of their highest coherence and self-regulation as the mechanisms to strengthen the cyclical dynamics of regional reproduction and achieve the stronger resistance to external fluctuations. Within the model construction the research also proposes the hypothesis about the transfer of the Kitchin cycles' dynamics from the innovation and technological sphere, respectively, to other subsystems of regional reproduction. Thus, regular crises are explained by a periodic violation of the coherence between subcycles of shorter length (taking into account their phase shift), which is analogous to the acoustic beat effect in the propagation of wave phenomena in natural environments. The same phenomenon becomes a factor of vulnerability of the regional system in relation to irregularly occurring and turbulently developing impulses of the external environment. The theoretical model and hypothesis are verified on the basis of empirical data on the Western border regions of Russia as the most vulnerable zone in modern geo-turbulent conditions. The study provides the long term (2000-2018) analysis of the phase conjugacy of the innovative product share in GRP (characterizing the innovation subcycle) and the ratio of investment to GRP (characterizing the investment and production subcycle). The results obtained made it possible to typologize the Western border regions according to the level of economic security in its cyclical aspect.