Management of the value added made by the entity using imitating modeling
The research is directed to implementation of an automatic control system by economy of the entity. Three stages of the solution of this task are allocated. The first stage - forming and the forecast of the integrated indicator characterizing an economic condition of the entity. As such indicator, the value added of products made by the entity is accepted. Private indicators, which influence the size of an integrated economic indicator, are considered. The second stage -creation of an estimative vector. The general technique of quantitative assessment of an economic situation in the entity using the new operational characteristic - lengths of the «estimative» vector determining financial and statistical ratios is offered. The vector allows to divide in dynamics an array of initial information into two parts relating to the satisfactory and pre-crisis periods of work of the entity that gives the chance to construct separately forecast models of a key indicator for points of crisis and for points of a steady condition. For each group of points distributions of the corresponding indicators are constructed. The final stage - the planned imitating experiment for the purpose of achievement of optimum value of value added of products made by the entity -stay using imitating modeling of the ranges of change of rational values of the financial ratios recommended for use as corrective actions for ensuring satisfactory sizes of a key indicator. Flowcharts of the following stages of the solution of an objective are provided in article: procedures of forming of the considered indicators and also procedures of calculation of an estimative vector and determination of rational values of corrective actions. Results of two series of imitating experiments on separation of logarithmic normal distribution of the considered indicators for one of the metallurgical entities are shown.