Simulation of growing conditions and analysis of factors contribution in formation of high bonitet plantings of pine (Pinus Sylvestris L.) in the program Maxent (by the example of the Bugulminsko-belebeevsky upland within the republic of Bashkortostan
In the program MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling) spatial distribution of conditions is simulated for formation of highly bonitetny pine plantations on the territory of the Bugulminsko-Belebeevsky upland. The initial materials for building environmental factors were the WorldClim data, derivative rasters obtained according to the relief model SRTM-3, regional soil maps and vectorial road layers from OpenStreetMap. The location of highly bonitet pine plantations are defined according to the materials of forest management and satellite image of Landsat 8 OLI. Manipulations with vector and raster layers were carried out in the software with a free license SAGA GIS and QGIS. The rated model shows the acceptable quality - AUC value (area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is 0.78 units. According to the simulation results three areas of concentration of optimum conditions were singled out, the largest one is in the Northern part of the upland - in Bakalinsky and Sharansky districts, the smaller ones are - in the Central- Western (Tuimazinsky district) and Central- Eastern part (Belebeevsky district) of the upland. The total area of pine forests with bonitets 1A and IB - 5.5 thousand hectares, favorable conditions for their growth are simulated on the area 14.8 thousand ha. The determining influence in the rated model belongs to the factors «Max temperature of the warmest month (contribution is 47.0%). «Topographic humidity index» (contribution is 14.5%) and «Average temperature amplitude» (contribution is 10.9%). The value of these factors agrees with the literature data on the ecology of pine plantations. The identified locations with the best predicted conditions may serve as an additional substantiation when creating of highly productive pine forest crops.