Application of Technical Diagnostics for Calculation of theProbability of Technical Devices Fracture and Accident RiskAssessment
One of the main ways of ensuring safety of production facilities is the application of the information technologies based onthe methods and means of technical (technogenic) diagnostics.This concept includes the theory, methods and means of identifying technical state of technical devices. For assessment of theirsafety the set of measures is required: carry out non-destructivetesting, perform strength calculations (current, predictive, static,monotonous and cyclic loading, etc.), study of the state of theobject material, diagnostics of corrosion state of the degradingobject, etc. Methods for calculating the initial and residual resources for successive stages of degradation of the material of thetechnical device, formation and development of local fractureusing the criteria of mechanics of fracture, basic characteristicsof the mechanical properties of materials and regularities of theirchanges during operation play the most important role. The article shows the possibilities of calculating the probabilityof technical devices fracture using the results of non-destructivetesting and technical diagnostics. It is recommended to use values of fracture probabilities at calculating the risk of technicaldevice failure. Also, it is required to use additional informationabout the defects that can be obtained from the calibration characteristics (considering measurement errors), the defect detection diagram, and, also the reliability diagram. It is noted thatthe wide application of accident risk assessment methods usingaccident probability calculations is complicated by the lack ofmethods for calculating the probability of fracture of the particular technical device depending on the parameters of the defect.In addition, there are no methods for non-destructive testing, inwhich the requirements are recorded concerning the estimationof errors in measuring parameters of defects and reliability ofnon-destructive testing.