Geo-simulation approach to modelling spatial objects and its application to creating thermokarst lake model using remote sensing data
The paper discusses various approaches to modelling complicated objects. As shown The geo-simulation approach is considered to be the most useful for modelling natural objects with spatial properties. The geo-simulation model of the dynamics of these fields is proposed on the basis of experimentally determined statistical properties of the thermokarst lake fields. An analysis of experimental data on the statistical properties of the fields of thermokarst lakes in the area of permafrost in Western Siberia was carried out using remote sensing for measurement of lake areas. The relationship between climatic changes and geo-cryological parameters was studied and a multiple regression equation to take account of temperature and precipitation changes in the model was determined. A geo-simulation software package was developed. This makes it possible to model the dynamics of the thermokarst lake fields, taking into account identified thermokarst and climate changes. The validity of the model and its accuracy in use were tested by comparing model results with experimental remote data. The results can be used for prediction of the thermokarst change dynamics in permafrost.