FORECASTING IN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ORDER PLANNING
Due to their effect on financial performance, forecasting and order planning are high-priority issues with companies involved in research and development (R&D). Forecasting becomes increasingly important during the periods of uncertainty associated with global financial crises. With accurate forecasts, companies can reassign their resources accordingly in advance rather than take measures in response to changes already in effect, which can cause increased costs resulting from an unplanned redistribution of manufacturing or R&D facilities. Besides that, accurate forecasts can prevent demand-related stress. The authors take note of the fact that forecasting procedures in R&D organizations should include consideration of a full range of research, development, manufacturing, financial and marketing factors so that an optimal order portfolio is formed. The authors propose a suite of planning and forecasting tools that enable evaluation of multiple factors in R&D order planning. The article also covers key types of uncertainty that need to be managed during order planning, including demand and cycle uncertainty. Additionally, the authors have examined situations when even correctly performed forecasts fail to predict demand. In such cases, if demand is above the expected level, deficit can be prevented by means of contingency orders included in the regular portfolio. The authors also address such issues as possible forecast data sources and users. Furthermore, the article touches upon the components of the forecasting process and provides recommendations as to the use of the proposed tools for calculation of economic effectiveness and order portfolio maintenance costs.