THEORETIC-METHODOLOGICAL BASIS OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX
In article the author offered methodological approach to an assessment of economic risk in the fuel and energy complex (FEC), gave concepts of the analysis, estimates and managements of risk and supposed to carry out a complex assessment of economic risk from a position of system approach. The analysis of risk breaks into some steps. The main dangers menacing to activity of energy industry come to light. All information characterizing internal and external relations of object of research gathers. Further identify dangers and define their characteristics. The following step - definition of the factors caused by the maintenance of danger. The author traced cause and effect relationships: an emergency situation - a factor risk. The risk assessment in work presents as the process used for definition of probability (or frequencies) approaches of an adverse event and possible consequences of realization of danger. Realization of an assessment of economic risk in the power sphere presents step by step. In the beginning the form of representation of risk gets out. The author defined further criteria and admissible risk levels, carried out the frequency analysis where frequencies and defined probabilities of emergence of adverse events. The author also calculated quantitative indices characterizing risk, defined interrelations between the safety indicators characterizing a condition of energy industry and carried out forecasting which results allow to expect development of an adverse situation, for timely taking measures of safety. The author drew the conclusion about the acceptability of risk or development of recommendations of its decrease on the basis of calculations. The article gave the mathematical apparatus applied in calculations, based on probability theory and mathematical statistics. The assessment of risk turns into adoption of the administrative decision. Management of risk - process of optimum allocation of costs on decrease in different types of risk in the conditions of limited material resources.