FORECAST OF GROUND SURFACE VIBRATIONS AND EVALUATION OF THE DEPTH OF RISK OF CHANGES IN ENGINEERING AND GEOLOGICAL CONDITIONS OF TERRITORIES WITH ACTIVE TECTONICS
Intensive human activity, affecting the development of areas with active seismotectonics is inextricably linked with catastrophic natural phenomena. To reduce the consequences of emergency situations, it is necessary to improve the systems for timely forecasting and assessing the degree of danger of changes in engineering geological conditions for existing buildings and structures. The article presents the justification of the methodology for predicting earth surface oscillations to assess the degree of danger of changes in engineering geological conditions. For this purpose, the results of research at the Altai seismological testing site in the period 2003-2005 were used. before and after the active phase of the Chuisky (Altai) earthquake. Field measurements are performed by a set of electrometry methods, consisting of high-precision monitoring measurements of electrical resistivity and natural variable electromagnetic fields. Data logging was synchronized in time with seismological observations conducted at this site. According to the results of the research, regularities of the display of the anomalous manifestations of the electric field intensity were revealed and the criteria associated with the influence of tectonic processes were determined. Considered two models explaining the «preparation» of the earthquake. Taking into account physical and geological changes and analysis of publications, a preference has been made towards the connection of earthquakes with atmospheric electricity and radon initiating it. Depending on the period of atmospheric disturbances, the magnitude of the change in resistance and the anisotropy coefficient, the degree of danger of changes in engineering-geological conditions as a result of deformations of the earth’s surface is given. On the basis of the selected criteria and the experience of the studies carried out in the undermined territories, a method for predicting earth surface fluctuations of areas with active tectonics has been developed to assess changes in engineering and geological conditions.