SPATIAL-TEMPORAL PREDICTION OF LANDSLIDE PROCESSES BASED ON THE GEOSYSTEM APPROACH
The article is devoted to solving the scientific problem of assessing the stability of the geological environment and forecasting exogeodynamic processes is determined by the increasing number of occurrence of complex natural and technological emergencies. The prediction of landslide processes is based on the assumption that future natural-technological emergencies are highly likely to occur under the same conditions in which they occurred in the past. The algorithm for predicting the occurrence of landslide processes disclosed in the article is carried out in four main stages: collecting and preparing data, systematizing data, building spatial models, and evaluating results. Experimental studies using Earth remote sensing data (ERS) were carried out on the basis of the Mordovia test polygon, which includes the marginal parts of forest-steppe geosystems of the Volga Upland in the forest province of the Oksko-Don lowland. The characteristics of indicators and the analysis of the intensity of the manifestation of landslide formation processes are given on the basis of hierarchical structuring of geosystems at the level of a class (subclass), group, type and kind of geosystems. It is shown in the work that a coupled analysis of landscape metric maps and landscape drawings can optimize the operational diagnostics of the development of exogeodynamic processes, and it is advisable to automate this process by forming ensembles of classifiers, by successively solving problems: forming a set of monoclassifiers, defining a metaclassifier algorithm, training mono-and metaclassifiers , evaluation of the effectiveness of the ensemble and its individual monomodels. The use of ensembles allows you to quickly analyze geosystems in order to analyze the development of natural processes and phenomena. Testing of ensembles at a number of research polygons showed the accuracy of the allocation of territories with landslide processes of more than 85 %.