Scenarios for the development of the provincial region export potential
The transformation of the international economic space under the influence of geopolitical factors, social shocks and the formation of new value chains determine the need to search for new growth factors for Russian regions as subjects of the global economy. The purpose of the study is to identify the drivers of the growth of the provincial region export potential, to search for possible scenarios for its development. The subject of the study is the export potential of the Republic of Mari El, which is part of the Volga Federal District. The theoretical platform of the research was formed by scientific works on the problems of globalization and integration of international economic relations, scenario development of socio-economic systems, foreign economic activity of regions. Within the framework of this study, the dynamics and structure of the region's exports are analyzed. The significance of the region's industries within the national economy is compared with the share of exports in the total export volume of the Republic of Mari El. The analysis of the region's exports based on the BCG matrix is presented. It contains a grouping of goods in the export basket according to the ratio of their attractiveness in foreign markets and the growth rate of the industry. It is concluded that the industries with national significance have the greatest export potential. They are as follows: electrical equipment and lighting devices; machinery, equipment and vehicles; food products and agricultural raw materials; pulp and paper products. Three alternative scenarios for the development of the export potential of the provincial region are proposed, which involve the diversification of exports by including new product positions and industries of local importance.