THE METHOD OF STOCHASTIC FORECASTING OF BENEFICIAL PERIODS FOR THE SALE OF GOODS
The research is devoted to the development of a forecasting method based on the analysis of stochastic market processes. However, the three classic problems of the theory of stochastic processes have been adapted to this method. The statistics of market price fluctuations are accompanied by the model of change in cost over time. The solution of these problems has made possible the reduction of forecast results to a sales chart in the form of recurrent rectangles. Their height indicates only beneficial periods for the sale of goods and doesn't reflect the production volume. An algorithm has been created to develop corresponding application software with practical significance. The software replaces the market price fluctuations and change in cost models with a recurrent function of beneficial periods for the sale of goods. The software has been proved efficient during experimental research and has been tested in one of the confectionary shops in Orenburg city.