MODELLING THE DYNAMICS OF STRUCTURE OF HANDICAPPED GROUP OF THE POPULATION ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE OREL REGION
A mathematical model of the changing age structure of the population of the region. The population is considered as a system consisting of three groups: working age, younger and older than itself. Model is a system of differential equations with respect to shares of the above three age groups in the general population and the corresponding initial conditions. The model parameters are the coefficients of fertility, mortality and age-side moves, obtained by treatment of statistical demographic data in a wide range of time. Adequate description of the model changes in the age structure was confirmed by comparison with known statistical data on the Orel region over a 14-year span from 2000 to 2013. The forecast for the next 13 years from 2014 to 2026. Confirmed for the Oryol region national trends of population aging and reducing the share of working-age population contingent in composition of population.