STATISTICAL MODELING IN SOLVING PROBLEMS OF IMPERFECTION OF INFORMATION BASE FOR RISK ASSESSMENT IN VOLUNTARY HEALTH INSURANCE
Article concerns the problems of risk assessment in voluntary health insurance (VHI) based on imperfect of information such as aggregated official Rosstat data, insurance company data and series of nationally representative surveys. Authors present approaches to solve informational problems by improvement of database of actuarial calculations, development and application of new calculation methods using some statistical techniques. Particular attention is given to multivariate probit model, as the most adequate method for assessing the interrelated risks. Mathematical formulation of model is presented. Authors’ proposal is tested by comparing the probability estimators of insured event (disease) calculated using traditional actuarial technique, based on official statistics, and on Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey - Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE) (2013), and using multivariate model estimation results. It is showed that latter method provides a more correct risk assessment in VHI.