OIL INDUSTRY OF THE MIDDLE EAST IN THE GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEM
The article examines the oil industry of the world’s leading oil-producing region - the Middle East - during the period of geopolitical instability caused by such factors as the Arab Spring, the civil war in Syria, military actions in Iraq, etc. One of the reasons for political and military instability was the activity of the terrorist organization ISIS, which created in the region the oil market to finance its activity. It is shown how the partial lifting of sanctions on Iran affected oil export to other regions of the world. The paper provides a typology of Middle Eastern countries according to the level of their economic development, taking into account the role of the oil industry in the GDP of these countries. The influence of geopolitical events in the region on oil production, export volumes and oil prices is analyzed. Security of supplies to the global market is estimated. A forecast is given for the industry development in the Middle East in comparison with the theory of K. Hubbert about the so-called oil production peak. The presented forecasts are calculated using the old paradigm of global energy development, based on the indicators ‘growth of population and income,’ without taking into account the cyclical nature of technological development, with cycles currently lasting 20-25 years.