Discrimination of climate models, probabilistic approach
Methodology of climatic models discrimination based of probabilistic approach is presented. The method consists of the testing of specific climatic characteristics via their statistical comparison with the estimates obtained from the analysis of observational data. We propose the routine procedure of sample variance, spectral density, sample mean and linear trend analysis. The methodology allows taking into account the autocorrelation in the modeled and observationally based time series. We applied the methodology to CMIP3 numerical simulation outputs analysis. The statistical testing was successful for the models echam, echo и hadcm3.