IDENTIFICATION OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CAUSES OF REPRODUCTIVE CRISIS AND PROJECTION OF POPULATION REPRODUCTION IN RUSSIA WITH THE HELP OF NONLINEAR DYNAMICS METHODS
This paper covers contemporary issues of Russia's population reproduction and their social and economic causes. The urgency to identify a key cause of reproductive crisis and project of future dynamics of population reproduction in Russia with the help of mathematical modeling methods is justified. It is offered to carry out the identification of the causes of reproductive crisis in Russia based on a modernized method suggested by Hurst, applying which to the pre-reform period data the paths of birth dynamics reflecting development of reproduction processes in Russia during the post-Per-estroika period on condition of lack of an external economic impact on demographic system have been built. Comparing the actual dynamics with expected dynamics of the crude birth rate, we conclude that both positive and negative external economic impact on demographic system influences mainly not on the expected number of children, but the planned time of their birth. The results confirmed a positive effect of the Russian Federation Government measures for overcoming of reproductive crisis. To assess their influence on future dynamics of population reproduction, based on a modernized method suggested by Hurst, the following two forecasting paths of the crude birth rate dynamics have been built: the first path conforms to the scenario where a value of the crude birth rate is to tend to values between 8-10,5 births/1,000 people (probability is 0,182), in particular, through a negative external impact, the second path is to tend to values between 13-16,5 births/1,000 people (probability - 0,618), in particular, through a positive external impact. Notwithstanding that these scenarios significantly differ from each other, the paths of the crude birth rate dynamics for 2015-2041, corresponding to the reliable prediction time, forecasted according to the abovemen-tioned scenarios, are virtually identical. The analysis of the findings allowed for the conclusion that though activization of demographic policy in Russia after 2006 positively affected on the birth rate in the past, it is not capable of having a significant impact on the future dynamics of the birth rate, substantially determined by the current situation and conjuncture shifts