A METHOD FOR PREDICTING REMAINING SERVICE LIFE ACCORDING TO THE PROBABLE DECREASE IN THE BEARING CAPACITY OF THE OPERATED BUILDING STRUCTURES
In this article we consider the issue of predicting changes in the load-bearing capacity of building structures of buildings and structures located in operating conditions for a long period of time that affect the reduction of the load-bearing capacity of the studied building structures. Referring to the previously published works and methods studied in them for making predictions of changes in various parameters of the technical condition of building structures, we offer to use another parameter - a probable decrease in load-bearing capacity, based on previously published works of other authors. To make a prediction, linear and nonlinear models of the development of changes in the load-bearing capacity of the structure were used; certain assumptions were made that significantly simplify the prediction process. Based on the offered models, we considered examples of constructing predictive models, including those to use a graphical method that provides visibility of the predicting process. The authors of the article have developed a diagram of the procedure for assessing the residual service life of building structures based on the most likely change in load-bearing capacity using linear and nonlinear predicting models. When making predictions, the authors used an interval method, taking into account all possible boundary conditions of operation of structures and changes in controlled parameters of structures.