Evaluation of investment agro-industrial projects: Criteria and risks
Subject The article addresses the issues of evaluation of investment agro-industrial projects, multicriteriality of expert evaluation and its relation to decision-making under risk. Objectives The aim of the study is to review the analytic hierarchy process to evaluate the criteria of agro-industrial projects and decisions taken by experts, taking into account the tenets of the prospect theory. Methods The study draws on the analytic hierarchy process as applied to the evaluation of agro-industrial projects, expert decisions based on the principles of the prospect theory, and the regression analysis. Results We developed a questionnaire and interviewed experts in the Republic of Bashkortostan and the Orenburg oblast. The most significant project criteria are net income and jobs, as for ethnic and social indicators, the most important ones are material well-being of the population and tension among nationalities. The study confirms the hypothesis about decisions taken by experts in accordance with the prospect theory, and evaluates the regression of correspondence of responses of the prospect theory to ranking the criteria by their importance. Conclusions and Relevance The analytic hierarchy process enables to calculate and compare the importance of criteria for evaluation of agro-industrial projects. Under risk, most of experts make decisions in accordance with basic principles of the prospect theory.