APPLICATION OF ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS IN ORDER TO DETERMINE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF STATE AND MUNICIPAL INCOME GENERATION
Subject/Topic Part of the cost of gross domestic product, the country's national wealth and income from foreign economic activity is transferred to such economic entities as state authorities (local authorities), business entities, and households in order to satisfy their social needs. The mechanism of accumulation of budget funds by economic entities as a result of the optimal (re) distribution of national income within the framework of the budget process is impossible without the effective income forecast. Goals/Objectives The aim of the study is to determine the dependence of federal budget revenues on the extraction of natural resources, as well as on the exchange rate, by the method of correlation and regression analysis in order to increase the efficiency of revenue generation of the state and municipalities. Methodology The methodological basis of this study was information from supranational organizations: the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the official data of state authorities: the website of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Federal Treasury, and the Bank of Russia. The information from leading providers of financial information for professional participants in financial markets - Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, was also used in the study. Results A correlation-regression model of the degree of influence of the exchange rate and the spot price of the Brent brand on the volume of federal budget revenues from the sale and use of oil resources is presented. It was revealed that the greatest elasticity of the federal budget revenues from oil exports depends on the spot price of the Brent oil brand. Conclusions and Relevance This analysis helps to improve the quality of forecasting federal budget revenues, and will also ensure the implementation of such a principle of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation as the effectiveness of budget funds.