The Use of Mathematical Modeling in the Analysis of Outbreaks of Chickenpox in Children's Organized Groups
The paper presents the results of a retrospective epidemiological analysis of the investigation data of 126 outbreaks with 10 or more cases of chickenpox that took place in pre-school educational institutions and schools in Moscow in 2007 - 2009. With the help of the mathematical modeling of the chickenpox spread process the presence of the hidden, unregistered sources of infection within a group of children was proved. It was shown that the development of the outbreak in a children's institution occurred, mainly, due to secondary sources of infection, and but not due new introduction of the virus into the collective.