Theoretical and Applied Aspects of Measuring the Economic Growth Potential of Russian Regions
The paper presents a new direction in methodology of modeling the potentials of regional economic growth developed by the authors in their previous studies. The proposed approach is based on decomposition of the extended production function in the Mankiw - Romer - Weil model and measuring statistically unobserved composition factors characterizing innovative, investment and human potential of regional development. This model enables defining the weight vectors of initial indicators for different groups of spatial entities. Detected weights of statistically observed indicators are the basis for structural analysis of economic growth specifics in different regions. Multiway Data Analysis is the basic method to define these potentials quantitatively. Based on this method of multivariate analysis with statistically observed indicators describing various components of regional economic growth in the period from 2001 to 2015, obtained were estimates of each of the three specified potentials per year per Russian Federation constituent member under consideration. The dynamic analysis in form of such calculations assists in comparing the potentials in individual regions. The information gained also helps in the dynamic analysis of different potentials within regions concerning cities numbering over a million inhabitants. A detailed retrospective study of the regional growth made it possible to carry out an integrated analysis and form identical groups thereafter. The time series obtained can serve as statistical tools for determining the contribution of the three composition factors of growth to each constituent member of the Russian Federation through repeated application of Multiway Data Analysis already to these factors. By way of such calculation the aggregate potential of economic growth for the group of the regions under consideration can be formed