Impact of global warming on the agriculture of arid zones of Middle Asia in the mid xxi century based on the ensemble of regional climate model projections
The assessment of global warming impacts on agroclimatic conditions of the growth of the leading agricultural crops of Central Asia (cotton, spring wheat and spring barley) is carried out. Future climate has been projected by the ensemble of regional climate model with high spatial resolution under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Calculations of the changes in agroclimatic indicators are performed using the ensemble mean climate changes as well as extremely strong and weak changes in the ensemble. By and large, based on ensemble mean projection for the mid XXI century, the boundaries of cotton cultivation can shift northwards up to 500 km and the area of cotton cultivation will increase significantly. Global warming in general will positively affect the agro-climatic conditions of cultivation of spring crops, grown on the rainfed lands of Central Asia. The expected growth of the hydrothermal coefficient (SCC), as a result of a shift in the vegetation period with an increase in temperature can amount to 25-30 % for the ensemble mean changes, and 45-50 % for the largest predicted warming in the ensemble.