Forecasting Long-term Development of Macroeconomic Systems Based on Agent Modeling
The article presents a tool for forecasting long-term development of macroeconomic systems and demonstrates how it can be used in theoretical and applied researches. Existing mathematical and computing models of economic processes are mostly based on the concept of equilibrium (CGE-models) and maximizing subjective expected utility as the main motive for the behavior of economic agents. We suggest a model of experimental economy, which is a result of interdisciplinary research. The model combines the concepts of simulation modeling, artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, economics and sociology. The macroeconomic system is represented as a set of microlevel processes and macrolevel influences. Economic processes are studied in close connection with demographics, as agents participate in various forms of economic relations, acting as labor, consumers and taxpayers. The model also takes into consideration the companies behavior and state control mechanisms. Economic agents make decisions based on the principles of bounded rationality. The model of experimental economy can be used both for theoretical research and for practical calculations. An example of theoretical study using this model is an analysis of micro-level economic cycles. In more practical terms, the model can be used in evaluating the efficiency of the state influences, such as credit policy and industrial development programs, on the economy.