Application of a Vector Autoregressive Model for the Assessment of a Bond Between High-Tech Exports and the GDP of the Russian Federation
The analysis of the reasons for the sustainable economic growth in many countries shows and the one of its main factors is the ability to produce and sell goods and services with high added value both in the domestic and foreign markets (high-tech exports). This factor has an overall positive impact on the welfare of countries and the strengthening of their international trade positions. The study solves the following tasks: the analysis of the normative structure of high-tech exports, the right choice of the leading macroeconomic indicators for modeling, and the construction of a vector autoregressive model with an assessment of its parameters. The solution of these problems allows to achieve the goal of the research by estimating the size and direction of the statistical bond between high-tech exports (HE) and the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Russian Federation. The last thesis justifies the need to accelerate the development of high-tech industries to increase economic growth.