ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STATE AND ANALYSIS OF THE WAYS OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE VOLGOGRAD REGION IN THE NEW ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
There are represented analyzes of the current state of agriculture in the region. There are singled out factors which restraining the agricultural development of the agrarian sector in the Volgograd region. The solution of these problems is necessary in the shortest possible time to ensure the food security non only in our region but also in the country. Based on the systems approach and expert mathematical tools, there is constructed a hierarchical model of the interrelations between decision-making levels in the process of choosing the optimal path of the industry development under the new economic conditions. There are described four contrasting scenarios for further agricultural development: innovative modernization, moderate development of agriculture, intensive development of crop production, intensive development of livestock. We identified the main points in constructing model: five factors that affect the development of the agricultural sector; six actors, which determine the development in the future to the greatest degree. Based on matrices of pairwise comparisons there were determined the degree of influence of actors on the development of the industry, the significance of goals for each actor, also there was determined the relative importance of alternatives from the point of view of each goal, and the resulting vectors of scenario priorities. Processing of received data in all phases of the approach are expert methods in the software environment.