Dynamics of parameters in stochastic BMS models for oil and gas markets
The stochastic theory of asset portfolio management can be applied to build an optimal investment project for the development of oil and gas fields. Methods and quantitative estimates of adaptive BMS-models with stochastic switching are used, through which the minimum initial investment is found. The article presents graphs of the dynamics of the fundamental characteristics of BMS-models, which provide the construction of sufficiently accurate (with a normalized square deviation of no more than 9%) stochastic functions at each stability period, into which all spot daily price statistics from 1988 to the present can be divided. Graphs that show the nature and ranges of fluctuations in the parameters of BMS-models are provided, the statistical estimates of which for all stable periods were obtained from real trading data.