ASSESSMENT OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE GROWTH OF TRANSPORT TARIFFS FOR CONSUMER INFLATION IN UZBEKISTAN
One of the negative effects of the global pandemic crisis on the economy was the disruption of global supply chains for the production and sale of products, which led to an increase in transport tariffs and accelerated global inflation. Developing countries have been hit the hardest by the pandemic crisis due to less adaptive capacity to external shocks than developed countries, and it is due to a less perfect export structure dominated by transport-intensive raw materials. Therefore, at the present stage of development, a balanced pricing policy for transport is required, in which the liberalization of transport tariffs would not cause significant damage to the welfare of the most of the population and would not hinder the public transport development. The research discloses an approach to assess the impact of transport tariffs on the consumer price index in Uzbekistan. The simulation results of price waves caused by a one-time increase in these tariffs are presented. The paper gives the analytical contribution of rise in prices related commodity groups to the increase in inflation. It is shown that the full effect of the initial increase in transport tariffs can exceed the direct impact by several times. The economic policy recommendations limiting the negative consequences for the population arising from this are provided.