Прогноз динаміки внутрішнього валового продукту України за допомогою нейронних мереж
The authors made attempt to forecast GDP and GDP growth of Ukraine in difficult conditions of uncertainty and information asymmetry by applying more flexible neural models that are able to absorb non-linear relationships between indicators of economic growth. The forecast was made for indicators which were divided into two groups, one group includes internal indicators for describing the state of Ukraine''s economy and external group of indicators, that determines the global trends in economic development. It is econometrically defined that the key impact factors for GDP dynamics and augmentation are increase of inside crediting of bank system of Ukraine, increase of balance of assets of the current operations of accounting balance, gross increase of the fixed capital, increase of the monetary stock, consumer price index, export part of the GDP, the part of the state costs in the GDP. The changes of these very factors must be considered within the process of anty-cycle regulation for economic development. The research shows that the changes in indices of the internal group are more influential for GDP and GDP growth forecast than external group of indicators. Tabl.: 1. Figs.: 6. Refs.: 19.