Long-Term Forecasting of Electricity Demand in the Face of Uncertainty of the National Socio-Economic Development and Situation on Regional Energy Markets
The role of electricity in the economy and people's life has been increasing worldwide in recent years, and demand for it is ahead of other types of energy carriers. Meeting the increasing demand for electricity is a key task for the energy sector. Prediction of energy demand is an important part in developing prospects for the development of economy and energy sector in national and region level. The article describes a multi-stage approach to forecasting market demand for energy, taking into account uncertainty of the country's socio-economic development and situation on regional energy markets. Some forecast estimates of electricity demand in Russia and its regions are given. It is shown that the obtained dynamics of individual forecast indicators generally corresponds to existing global trends, that confirms the correctness of the presented approach.