FORTUNE OF RUSSIAN REFORMS
On the basis of the retrospective historical analysis of the previous cycles of the Russian modernizations the author attempts to find the reference points of barriers overcoming which could lead the right way of Russian development during its critical historical period. According to the analysis of Russian modernizations cycles our country as a great power has objectively been compelled to accept globalization challenges, but subjectively each time Russia was not ready for it. The periods of openness to the world were changed in Russia by long periods of self-isolation with reapprised of values and search for original ways of development. All of this led to instability fraught with catastrophic scenarios of domestic evolution. Nowadays Russia is facing the next stage of reforms along with aggravation of international situation. At the same time a huge scale of problems facing Russia considerably surpasses available economic, personnel and demographic resources. It is obvious that Russia must abandon inertial approach to interstate and domestic problems, passive defense that is often covered with imitation of activity, and cautious wait-and-seeing behavior leads to delayed reaction to events instead of cause-and-effect relations. The article offers the problem-solving toolkit and possible scenarios of international development in context of security of the Russian Federation.