USING TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TOOLS WHEN DEVELOPING AGROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS
Agricultural productivity depends to a large extent on the weather and climate conditions of the areas where agricultural complexes are located and the quality of hydrometeorological support. Currently, the regions of the Russian Federation are developing forecasts of agrometeorological parameters necessary for planning agricultural activities, primarily in the field of crop production (precipitation, soil moisture, heat supply during the growing season, etc.). In modern conditions, when the main climate-forming processes change, certain difficulties may arise. Climate change leads to the need to clarify the long-term average (monthly average, seasonal average, etc.) values, requires adjustment of long-term forecasting methods, etc. The solution of these problems is complicated by the fact that significant changes have begun relatively recently, and the corresponding series of observations have a small length. Therefore, improving the quality of predictive support for agricultural consumers of meteorological information may be associated with the use of new forecasting methods, including those based on new approaches. Taking into account the above, the aim of the work is to increase the success of agrometeorological forecasts for territories with insufficient meteorological data based on adapted technical analysis tools. We used the results of weather observations in the Voronezh Oblast for the period from 1965 to 2018. As an example, the thermal regime of the region was considered, however, methods of analysis and obtaining predictive methods can be implemented in relation to any weather and climate parameter. Based on the results of the work, predictive models based on the use of new technical analysis tools are proposed. The article presents a method for forecasting weather and climate conditions that affect the efficiency of agricultural production in areas with insufficient meteorological data. It can be used to improve the quality of recommendations issued to consumers during the planning of agricultural activities.