ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION CONTROL SYSTEM OF A MINING ENTERPRISE USING RECURRENT FORECASTING BASED ON SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS
Modern energy strategies aimed at the development of the energy industry involve a significant change in the structure of the process of education, transmission, consumption of electric energy and energy efficiency through the introduction of modern technologies at all stages. The growth of capacities of industrial enterprises in the conditions of the wholesale market of electric energy and capacity in the modern energy system determines the need for the development of technologies for predictive management of the process of electric consumption of these enterprises. The introduction of such technologies at the control points of the operational management of enterprises will reduce the number of human errors, the number of emergency stops of the technological process, increase the reliability of the power system mode, rationally manage the process of power consumption of the enterprise. In this regard, forecasting demand and load consumption is an important stage in the functioning and planning of modern power systems. An accurate, correctly made forecast is the key to effective management of the process of power consumption and reliable operation of the enterprise. Forecasting errors lead to unbalanced supply and demand, which negatively affects operating costs, reliability and efficiency. Special attention should be paid to the power supply systems of mining enterprises with a number of key features: high unit power of individual consumers (mining excavation machines); frequent starts and stops of equipment; presence of variable reactive, including capacitive load; operation of mining machines in repeated short-term mode, etc. The methodology of recurrent data analysis of the time series Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) considered in this paper allows us to obtain acceptable deviations of the predicted values of electricity consumption from the actual ones, which makes it possible to increase the efficiency of the power supply system as a whole.