MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION OF THE OUTCOME OF THE DISEASE IN PATIENTS WITH DIABETES MELLITUS WITH ULCERATIVE NECROTIC LESION OF THE LOWER EXTREMITIES
Based on the analysis of 782 case histories of diabetic patients with ulcerative necrotic lesions of the lower extremities, a mathematical model was developed to predict the outcome of the disease. Using the method of step-by-step inclusion/exclusion of input predictors, two variants of a linear multidimensional model were constructed to predict the "Outcome of the disease" indicator for 14 and 8 clinical factor signs. The models were verified and evaluated for prediction quality. As a result, model 2 was chosen, which is based on 8 input signs (type of diabetes mellitus, severity of admission, number of bed days, presence of complications, insulin therapy, number of operations, presence of osteomyelitis of the foot, degree of foot lesion according to Wagner on the left) and has the best prognostic abilities. Model 2 has a sensitivity of 81.7(95%CI: 78.7-84.5) and a specificity of 70.4 (95% CI: 59.2-80.0). The adequacy of the model was confirmed on a test set using methods of comparative and correlation analysis.