MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF THE EVOLUTION OF HIV INFECTION IN SVERDLOVSK OBLAST
Sverdlovsk Oblast is among regions featuring high levels of HIV incidence and prevalence. The present paper describes a mathematical model of HIV spread up to the year 2025. Changes in the sizes of population groups featuring different levels of HIV contraction, i.e. core risk group (injection drug users), bridging groups, and the general population, have been assessed. The model is based on a system of linear differential equations that capture HIV transmission in a population with account of risk group vulnerability to HIV and of weighted coefficients of contact rates between subjects referred to different risk groups. To estimate the effectiveness of interventions aimed at controlling the spread of HIV, sensitivity analysis using Monte-Carlo method was carried out. The modelling suggests that preventive and therapeutic interventions undertaken in Sverdlovsk Oblast slowed down HIV spread and reduced HIV prevalence in the year 2014 compared with 2013.