Non-Equilibrium Structural Models of the Real Sector of the Russian Economy
This paper aims at description of prospects of the Russian economy in the middle-term scenario, when changes of the drivers of the economic growth are possible. How and due to which factors the Russian economy will go out the world economic crisis of 2019, what is the role of the economic policy in this situation? In this paper we consider a macroeconomic model created upon the main ideas of the structural modeling, which enables us to describe the main trajectories of economic development in different scenarios. In its essence this model disaggregates the sphere of the real production of the Russian economy into the following sectors: E.O.M. (export-oriented markets), D.O.M. (domestic-oriented markets), N.M. (natural monopolies). Interactions between these sectors are reflected of the final form of the model: the system of two first difference equations describes dynamics of the output in E.O.M. and D.O.M. sectors. Since the dynamics of output in the N.M. sector is determined from the outputs of E.O.M. and D.O.M. sectors and the total output of the Russian economy depends on the total output of the real sector, we can consider the aggregated values in subsequent stages of econometric modeling. With account of conjuncture factors revealed by theoretical analysis, we create the macroeconometric model, which gives estimates of price indicators and production indices in the main branches of the real sector. The novelty of the proposed approach to applied macroeconomic modeling of the Russian economy, thus, consists in taking into account the inner structure of the Russian economy, on the one hand, and the specific methodology of modeling for description of nonstationary transitional dynamics of the real data, on the other. In this manner, we arrive at the stage of econometric modeling, where the method of cointegration analysis of Engle-Granger is used.