Development of Mathematical Model of Gas-Dynamic Phenomena Forecasting Method According to Geological Data in Conditions of Verkhnekamskoie Potash Salt Deposit
Article proposes a statistical approach in predicting the gas-dynamic danger in potash mines, which can significantly reduce the dependence of the final prediction results on subjective factors by introducing a model of informative strictly defined criteria. Obtaining the most appropriate forecasting models of reality is only possible through an integrated approach, displaying factors of generation, migration, accumulation and preservation for a long period of geological time gas clusters and centers of gas-dynamic phenomena in the salt rock mass. In the mathematical model development for of gas-dynamic phenomena`s prediction method on geological data a parametric mathematical model of forecasting method was used based on discriminant analysis, which is a powerful statistical method and in depth of data analysis and the results significance is among the most effective methods of statistical analysis. In case of compliance with conditions of multidimensional data normal distribution and equality of covariance matrices the parametric model leads to optimal results in forecasting. In case of non-compliance with these restrictions in the use of robust evaluation model allows to compensate the incorrect prediction`s probability growth. A statistical analysis of geological information in the field of gas-dynamic phenomena (GDP) in the potash mines was performed. Learning samples were formed, the mathematical model of forecasting method for zones dangerous because of GDP was developed based on multivariate discriminant analysis with classical and robust statistical procedures. Decision rules to predict the geological data of areas dangerous because of GDP were obtained for conditions of Verkhnekamskoie potash salt deposit. Forecast maps were created for zones dangerous because of GDP for the Ust-Yaivinskii mine field conditions on the base of PJSC "Uralkali" and Polovodovskii area of Verkhnekamskoie potash salt deposit. The adequacy estimation was given for the method of forecasting mining operations` practice on potash layers dangerous because of GDP in conditions of potash mine fields PJSC "Uralkali".