ADAPTIVE TREND-SEASONAL MODEL, AS A TOOL FORECASTING SALES IN DIFFERENT BRANCHES
The article presents the results of the application of the adaptive trend-seasonal model (АТСМ) for the building of the forecast sales companies in various spheres of activity. Adaptation allows you to build a qualitative projection in the context of active changing external environment that leads not only to change the nature of trends in time series, but seasonality. The algorithm АТСМ easy enough that allows it to build using standard tools in Microsoft Excel. The article dealt with the specificity and the problem of forecasting sales, describes the principles of АТСМ, its contrast to the classical trend-seasonal model. Are examples of the building with the АТСМ forecast sales of industrial engineering, construction materials, print products. In the opinion are the benefits of АТСМ for forecasting sales: the possibility of adapting to changing conditions, the use of Excel for forecasting