About aviation service provider process modeling for safety risk assessment
Modern Russian and international requirements for aviation service providers (ASP) imply the development and application of a Safety Management System (SMS). An SMS is a dynamic risk management system based on the principles of a Quality Management System in structure, scalable in proportion to the operational risks of a competing organization, and applied in the context of a Safety Culture. One of the basic principles of modern Quality Management System application is the use of a process approach. The article discusses the possibility of modeling processes within the SMS for quantitative safety risk assessment based on Bayesian Belief Network. Two options for the development of hazards in the framework of ASP operational processes are discussed. On the example of the process of aircraft de/anti-icing, the possibility of a practical solution to the problem of mathematical modeling of the operational process of ASP is shown, with the court the «outputs» of the process affect the hazards. The developed mathematical model of the aircraft de/anti-icing process allows to determine: level of safety performance indicator for the aggregate of ASPs, taking into account the problem in the organization of the aircraft de/anti-icing process, the level of safety risk for all of the identified hazard and the level of safety risk for each of the identified hazards.