Modelling of the Sea of Azov long-term ice cover
Mathematical modelling of ice cover and thickness, and water temperature of the Sea of Azov for the period of 1920-2016 was done applying multi-compartment hydrological balance model modified to operate on a daily time step. Monitoring data from the coastal weather stations are model inputs. The simulation’s results were compared with values of ice cover and water temperature from the MODIS (Terra and Aqua) satellite data for 2006-2016 and with observations of ice thickness in the ports. It is indicated that the model can be used for creating a historical reanalysis of the Sea of Azov ice cover, as well as for operational forecasting. Long-term dynamics (from 1920 to present) of the Sea of Azov ice cover and thickness mean annual values is presented. Easing of ice conditions in the modern period was observed. Average ice extent of the Sea of Azov in the early 21st century is 16 %, which is almost by 2 times less than in the middle of the 20th century. However, according to the simulation’s results, the average ice thickness’ values during the last decade decreased insignificantly against a background of ice cover extent and duration decrease.