Trends for the concentration of economic activity and uneven spatial development of Russia
Using quantitative methods and qualitative analysis, the article explores the spatial distribution of economic activity in Russia. We obtain the characteristics of the evolution of economic activity distribution by analyzing Markov chains and mobility indices. The study shows that the spatial concentration of production has continued in the modern Russian economy. Along with the preservation and enhancement of existing centers of resource specialization, a number of new ones have formed; at the same time, we are witnessing the weakening role of old centers. Our analysis of the evolution of distribution has pointed out the presence of an active «poverty trap», «wealth trap» and a tendency to the formation of a «medial» group of regions according to the level of economic activity. The final distribution of regions in terms of economic activity, achievable by maintaining the trend observed over the test period, shows the establishment of a rather large pole of relative poverty and a pole of wealth that concentrates a significant proportion of value-added production. The emerging group of regions with the average development level is relatively small. Under such circumstances, the regional policy aimed at stimulating regional development only galvanizes the processes of polarization. A more adequate policy seems to be aimed at leveling uneven territorial development in order to avoid excessive exacerbation of interregional disparities and inequalities.