The dynamics of accounting reports as an indicator of the deterioration in bank’s financial standing
The purpose of the article is to predict the financial condition of banks in the Russian Federation using mathematical modeling tools. The main task is to develop a machine learning algorithm to predict the deterioration of the financial condition of banks. The article describes the construction of regression models that make it possible to predict bank ratings based on the published reporting forms of credit institutions. The built models are of two types: the first model predicts the current ratings of banks, the second predicts future ratings in three months time horizon. Combining the two models makes it possible to predict rating downgrades for any bank in Russia. The quality of the models was assessed, and conclusions were drawn from the results obtained.