On Methodological Approaches to Solving the Problem of Uncertainty in the Management of Technological Innovations at an Enterprise
The paper is devoted to the issues of methodology of technological innovation management in conditions of uncertainty and indistinctness of information about the research object and about the environment of its functioning. The paper presents some results of a scientific discussion on the problem of uncertainty, relevance and the possibilities of accounting for uncertainty in economic management. The results of the study of the basic concepts and forms of uncertainty, including gnoseological and ontological as basic forms, stochastic and non-stochastic as forms determining the ability to predict the behavior of organizational systems are shown. A classification of uncertainty factors is presented that is relevant in assessing the effectiveness of technological innovations. On this basis, the established (the most significant) methodological approaches to solving the problem of uncertainty in the management of technological innovations are systematized, and author solutions are also proposed. In particular, in the solution of the target uncertainty, it was proposed to clarify the form of the targeted effect of technological innovations and a method for its evaluation was proposed; in the solution of natural uncertainty, the use of a fuzzy model of an organizational system based on the system methodology for assessing the effectiveness of technological innovations, the principles of forming this model are also proposed. The proposals presented in the paper on the development of methods for assessing the effectiveness of technological innovation from the standpoint of non-stochastic uncertainty were the result of research and generalizing of scientific positions that are developed in the theories of systemology, innovation, and investment capital.