Modelling of food security in the region
The article considers indicators that can be used for evaluating the condition of food security in the region. Given the approaches existing in scientific literature, the authors substantiated optimal and critical values of the ratios of sufficiency of consumption and affordability of food. Statistical data on the Vologda Oblast were processed and on this basis economic-mathematical models were built, which reflect the influence of various factors on food security. The authors have determined that the main factors include the per capita volume of import and domestic production of food, the level of intensity of agriculture and economic activity of population, and the proportion of residents with incomes below the subsistence level. Trend models were composed for each of the factor variables; these models, with the help of extrapolation method, were used for calculating forecast values and determining the parameters of the coefficients of sufficiency of consumption and economic affordability of food. The revealed relationships helped identify key areas of regional policy that contribute to improvement of food security in the Vologda Oblast.