Analysis of the potential of human development and the mutual influence of life expectancy and population density by regions of Russia
The article shows that there is no unambiguous interpretation of the concept “potential”, and therefore, within the framework of the objects of research (regions, countries), we proposed our own interpretation: potential is the most possible benchmark for the development of the countries of the world (regions of the country) in specific (today's) socio-economic and other global and national conditions within the framework of the selected analytical indicator or indicator combination. We also analyzed the potential of human development by the indicator “life expectancy” and the development potential by the indicator “population density” in 85 subjects of the Russian Federation, and characterized the mutual influences of population density and life expectancy by regions of Russia according to the data for 2020. In our research, we used the method of critical values, a number of methods of systems analysis, analytical and statistical analysis, first of all, the grouping method, index analysis, correlation and regression analysis. As a result of the conducted research, we found that in modern Russian socioeconomic conditions: (1) the critical values of life expectancy in the regions of Russia are 69.94 years (first quartile) and 70.66 years (median), and the realized regional potential in terms of life expectancy is 71.91 years (third quartile); (2) the subjects (regions) of the Russian Federation are characterized by high differentiation in population density - from 4956.06 people per sq. km (Moscow) up to 0.007 people per sq. km (Chukotka Autonomous Okrug), in connection with which we developed an authorial “density index” to reduce the level of differentiation of regions without losing the quality of regional data analytics on population density in Russia; (3) the critical values for the regions of Russia in terms of population density are 5.12 people per sq. km (first quartile) and 22.36 people per sq. km (median), and the realized regional potential in terms of population density is 44.5 people per sq. km (third quartile); (4) the relationship between population density and life expectancy in the regions of Russia is positive, but it is moderate, while the following dependencies are characteristic for the subjects of the Russian Federation (on average): to ensure an average regional life expectancy (71 years), a population density of 30.5 people per square km is necessary and sufficient, and regions with very high life expectancy (73 years) are characterized by population density in the range of 47 to 72.5 people per sq. km.