Econometric modeling of indicators of labor market by Belarus regions. Part 2. Correlation and regression analysis
The introduction indicates the relationship of studies performed in this part of the work with the results obtained in the first part of the work. The goal of the study is the analysis of the dependence of one of the main indicators of the labor market - the number of unemployed on various factors in the Republic of Belarus and its regions. In the main part, based on official statistics, an econometric modeling of the number of unemployed and factors affecting this indicator (number of vacancies, GDP, investment in fixed assets, per capita income, number of economically active population) by regions of the Republic of Belarus and the country as a whole. To identify relationships between indicators, a linear pair correlation coefficient was used. The models of multiple linear regression of the number of unemployed on the most significant factors are built. Evaluation of the quality of the models was carried out based on the statistical tests of Shapiro-Wilk and Jarque-Bera about the normal distribution of residues, Breusch-Godfrey about the absence of autocorrelation of residues. A comparison was made of the quality of forecasts for multiple linear regression models and ARIMA. Forecast properties are estimated by comparison with real data of 2018. In the conclusion of the article, it is noted that in recent years the Republic of Belarus has been characterized by an increase in the number of vacancies and per capita income. Reducing unemployment is accompanied by an increase in GDP. A significant impact on the dynamics of the number of unemployed in the Republic of Belarus was rendered by the measures taken recently by the state to regulate the labor market, contributing to the expansion of demand and supporting effective labor supply.