The practice of applying foreign MDA-models for predicting the probability of bankruptcy for the meat processing industry (by the example of the Irkutsk region)
The modern development of bankruptcy forecasting approaches suggests the use of mathematical models, including multiple discriminant analysis (MDA-models) and logistic regression. The article discusses the use of foreign MDA models for predicting the probability of bankruptcy: Altman (two-factor and for emerging markets), Lis, Springate, Tuffler, Fulmer for enterprises of the meat processing industry of the Irkutsk region. For the study, a number of meat processing plants were selected, the indicators of which had to fit into the “green”, “gray” and “red” zones. The above models confirmed the hypothesis that indicators are in the “green” zone for enterprises currently operating. The enterprises whose indicators should have fallen into the “gray” zone were not diagnosed by the presented models, which requires clarification of the boundaries of the “gray” zones for the models. Using historical data on the stoppage of production of one of the plants, the following results were obtained: 1 year before the stoppage of the enterprise, bankruptcy was predicted in two models (two-factor Altman and Taffler), 2 years in two models (Altman for emerging markets and Fulmer), 3 years - not a single model, for 4-5 years - two models (Fox and Springate). Such a wide spread of estimates in the forecasts is explained by different approaches to the choice of model coefficients and their weights. Thus, the above models correctly identify the enterprise from the “red” zone. The calculations performed demonstrate a certain effectiveness of the issued forecasts, although they require some adjustment due to the specifics of the industry under consideration. The study was conducted using open data from the Federal Tax Service.