Identification and Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Exchange Rate of the Russian Ruble
The most significant factors and processes that determine the exchange rate of ruble in the Russian economy in the short run are specified. It is shown that factors accelerating ruble’s devaluation, such as possible decline in oil prices, still persist. These factors also embrace recession and inflation in Russia’s economy, the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System, the RF budget deficit and accumulation of international reserves, as well as devaluation expectations. At the same time, a number of factors contribute to ruble’s revaluation, such as persistent trade surplus, reduced capital outflow, government debt policy, moderately strict monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, and a sharp drop in household income. Many of the factors mentioned reflect the unstable economic situation in the world markets, and through them global economic processes are extrapolated to Russia’s economy. Interaction of these groups of factors leads to the balanced exchange rate of ruble that is the subject to estimates and projections.