UNIVERSAL SIMULATION MODEL OF LONG-TERM FLOOD FORECAST FOR MOUNTAIN RIVERS
The universal simulation model for forecasting streamflow during high water has been developed by the example of 34 medium and small rivers of the Altai-Sayan mountain country. The input factors of the model are monthly precipitation and average monthly air temperatures. Meteorological parameters are calculated as a percentage of their long-term average values with further averaging for the whole study area. We predict streamflow for 3 months ahead with three times less variance than that for forecasting the average long-term value. The forecast quality is characterized by the Nash-Sutcliffe index NSE >0,68 that is very high for long-term flood predictions.