TRANSITION TO AN INTENSIVE INNOVATION GROWTH MODEL
Rising global competition and limits of catch-up innovation development orients emerging economies towards qualitative transformations of National Innovation Systems (NIS) for an intensive innovation growth. This process will determine the architecture of international relations, regional and global power balances. The article analyses theoretical provisions related to the opportunities, prospects and factors of this transformation. Some “technology-push” (General Purpose Technologies, emerging technologies, etc.) and “demand-pull” (disruptive innovations) theories are briefly reviewed. Despite contradictions between theories, it is assumed that emerging economies innovation capacity would be determined by their potential to realize both breakthrough technologies and disruptive innovations. Analysis of theories also reveals that innovative institutions and culture as most important factors in this transformation. Still, comparison of institutions and resources of most developed nations with emerging economies gives limited grounds to believe in the possibility of their NIS radical transformation. Nevertheless, we are witnessing an improvement in the institutional and cultural characteristics of emerging economies. A hypothesis of this study, that allows to redefine potential for NIS transformations of emerging economies, is the sectoral nature of innovation institutions development. It is assumed that in certain industries, sectors or clusters favorable conditions for intensive innovation development are formed, which then can diffuse to the general economy. This makes NIS transformation more realistic (less resources and efforts are needed) and manageable. The communities of practice and innovation are defined as key agents of change. In conclusion, it is noted that even with a sectoral approach, the success of NIS transformation is not predetermined. Depending on how successfully emerging economies will develop their innovative institutions and culture, it can either widen the development gap between them and the developed nations, or, alternatively, create new opportunities for their leadership.