Effects of Free Trade Area Creation between Russia & the Pacific Rim's MegaTrade Agreements
An analysis of trendsgives reason to assume that Russia is seeking to extend the regime of trade liberalization with the Pacific Rim countries. The assessment showed that Russia applies hig-her tariff and non-tariff barriers on imports from the Pacific Rim countries, than the opposite. Using a partial equilibrium model the author indicates the following positive trade effects for Russia and the mega trade agreements of the region (TTP, RCEP & APEC): trade creation effect prevails over trade diversion effect; general welfare and bilateral trade tend to increase. The resulting estimatesallow comparing gains and losses for the Russian economy in the context of possible bilateral trade liberalization with the Pacific Rim mega trade agreements. Firstly, it is more preferable for Russia to create a free trade area with the potential participants of RCEP, if one considers the trade creation & trade diversion effects ratio, as well as loss of tariff revenue. Secondly, despite a disproportionate rise in importsthan exports to all described mega trade agreements of the region, the evaluation showed that the lowestmodulo negative trade balance for Russia will be possible in the case of conclusion FTA with the TTP countries. Third, Russia may obtain the maximum increase in the export & import under the FTA creation with the APEC countries. While the value trade growth for Russia will be highest in the case of FTA creation with the TTP. On the basis of prolongation of the trends the long-term prospects for the Russian economy from trade liberalization with the mega trade agreements of the Pacific Rim were identified.