Determinants of revenue of hospitality enterprises in the post-pandemic period based on a scenario approach
The tourism industry is affected by health emergencies. According to the World Tourism Organization, as a result of the outbreak of coronavirus infection, the number of international tourists decreased by 60-80% in 2020, moreover, the global economy collapsed - all this caused serious global consequences for service providers. In connection with this situation, the topic of reducing the profitability of companies becomes especially relevant: in the conditions of uncertainty of the epidemiological situation, entrepreneurs need to calculate possible forecast options and the occurrence of concomitant risks of revenue reduction. Thus, each market participant has the opportunity to assess the consequences of the occurrence of a particular scenario. The purpose of the study is to forecast hotel revenue for 2022, taking into account the identified risks of reducing the profit of the hotel industry in the post-pandemic period. Tasks: determining the current state of the hotel industry, identifying the risks of loss of profitability, identifying the relationship between revenue and identified risks using correlation and regression analysis, identifying possible scenarios for the development of the epidemiological situation in 2022 and determining their impact on revenue, profit forecast for each scenario. The methods of expert assessment, correlation and regression analysis, comparative analysis and generalization, the construction of their own hypotheses are used in the work. As a result of this study, the revenue of a 4-star hotel was predicted according to three scenarios of the development of the post-pandemic period for 2021-2022. Significant risks of reducing the revenue of hotel enterprises in the post-pandemic period were: the average price per room, the level of employment of the population, the dynamics of tourist flow, both domestic and inbound.