Model development of HIV infection in the Republic of Tajikistan in the second decade of XXI century
The paper presents an assessment of the role of the transmission pathways in the development of the HIV epidemic in the Republic of Tajikistan (RT). Surveillance of HIV shows that in Tajikistan the deterioration of the epidemiological situation. As of 01.01.2015 in the country registered 6558 HIV-infected individuals (more than 1008 cases in comparison with 2013), of which: 4587 - 1971 men and woman. During the period 2002-2014 RT has been a steady downward trend in HIV transmission by injection: in 2004 - in 84,3% of cases of HIV infection occurred through injecting drug use, and in 2014 - in 48,2%, ie the specific weight of the transmission of the virus by the parenteral decreased 1.75 times. One of the significant factors of the spread of drug abuse in Tajikistan are drug trafficking and the presence of the drug industry in neighboring Afghanistan. Meanwhile, for the period 2009-2014 traced a clear a regular feature of the HIV epidemic in Tajikistan - a growing proportion of new HIV cases caused by unprotected heterosexual intercourse, indicating the activation of sexual transmission. The structure of the HIV pathogen sexual route of transmission was 26,5% in 2009, and in 2014 - 42,8%, ie, this figure increased by 1,6 times. Analysis of the features of the trends of the HIV epidemic in the Republic of Tajikistan and the comparative evaluation of the data obtained from similar works by other researchers suggest that both in our region and in the world in the second decade of the XXI century, depending on the importance of HIV transmission, formed a new model of development of the HIV epidemic.