Assessment of the applicability of autoregressive models of variability of monthly sums of atmospheric precipitation to predict it (on the example of the Cheremkhovsky district of the Irkutsk region)
On the example of the territory of the Cheremkhovsky district of the Irkutsk region, it is shown that for many parts of the earth's surface, forecasts with a lead time of 1 year of interannual changes in monthly amounts of atmospheric precipitation, for months of increased fire hazard, which are developed using autoregressive models of this process, are much more accurate than the forecasts obtained using traditional technique. As a result, it is advisable to take such forecasts into account when developing plans for the main activities of the units of the State Fire Service of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia.