CONSTRUCTION ACCORDING TO GEODETIC DATA OF EXPECTED MODEL OF PROCESS MOVEMENTS OF THE CREST OF THE DAM OF SAYANO-SHUSHENSKAYA HYDROELECTRIC POWER STATION (AT THE STAGE OPERATION OF 2007-2009)
In article process of creation of dynamic model on the basis of geodetic data for forecasting of process of movements of controlled points of a crest of a dam of Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric power station for the purpose of studying of observed deformation processes of a construction at an operational phase of 2007-2009 is considered. The solution of the recurrent equation in the form of two first conditional moment functions of process of movements of observed points of the construction representing expected model which allows to find forecasts of movements of concrete points and precompute forecasting errors is shown. As the major influencing factors the hydrostatic pressure and temperature are chosen, and the residual part of process is presented by model noise components, i.e. by expansion of a vector of states. The sequence of performance of stages of estimation at creation of expected mathematical models depending on character of a predictive task for various temporary periods of operation is presented.