Forecasting Estimates of Demand for Motor Fuels for Road Transportation and Oil Products for other Consumers of Final Energy Consumption (on the Example of Tula Region)
A heuristic model has been developed to calculate the demand for motor fuels for road transportation and oil products for other consumers of final energy consumption in an economic region. The calculations were carried out on the basis of statistical reports and forecasting materials for the Tula region. A two-stage calculation scheme is proposed: 1) adjustment of the model based on actual data for the reporting period 2005-2015 and the elaboration of proper statistical functions for the main drivers of the vehicles work in the prospective period; 2) the determination of the calculated values of the demand for motor fuels for certain segments of the road transport (motor vehicles owned by the public; cargo and passenger vehicles of common use; and general-purpose buses) in the period 2015-2035 by using built statistical functions and expert estimates based on publication data and common sense.