Influence of world oil price on economies of oil-exporter countries
This article describes the research of interconnection based on macro-economic indices and sharp fluctuations in oil prices. In the most part of works connected with oil prices’ influence on economy it is considered only from theoretical viewpoint. The main goal of the author is a research of empirical influence of oil prices’ fluctuations on countries’ economies. Some people say that oil plays a key role in countries’ economies who export oil and oil products. This article analyzes the data of Russia and Iran in the period from 1995 to 2012 with a help of VAR models (Vector autoregression). According to the research results the shock from oil prices’ changes in short period leads to economic rise, unemployment level, non-oil export and oil extraction in Russia, and in Iran it is inflation, unemployment and oil extraction rise. In medium-term period this shock leads to economic growth, non-oil export, oil extraction and FDI in Russia, and also growth of inflation, non-oil export and oil extraction in Iran. In long-term period it leads to economic growth, inflation and FDI in Russia, and also inflation, non oil export and oil extraction in Iran.