Predicting food security of the region in the context of food affordability
Purpose. The study consists in the development and substantiation of forecast scenarios for ensuring the food security of the region in the context of food affordability. Materials and methods. The research technique is based on the development of predictive econometric models of the food affordability, including trend, simulation modeling and paired non-linear correlation-regression models, which not only makes it possible to identify the impact on the consumption level of two multidirectional factors at the same time (price changes and income), but also reflects the real purchasing power of the monetary income of the population. The empirical basis for forecast calculations was an assessment of trends in ensuring food security in the region for the period 2007-2019. Results. The results of the study indicate that during the period of fundamental changes in the modern agro-food policy of Russia, including the adoption of the Food Security Doctrine, the implementation of accelerated import substitution measures, it was not possible to significantly improve the quality and living standard of the population. It is substantiated that the degree of differentiation of population of Rostov region in terms of income, together with the Engel coefficient, approaches a critical level and does not allow ensuring the food affordability at the proper level. Predictive scenarios of food affordability have been developed: basic (inertial) and pessimistic. It is argued that the existing mechanism for ensuring food security in the long term is insufficient to improve the quality of life of population. Conclusions. Difficult macroeconomic conditions in the country against the backdrop of sanctions confrontations and a pandemic can significantly aggravate food affordability. In particular, meat consumption by 2030 may reach 82.2 % of the rational consumption rate, milk and fruits 76.7 and 65.2 %, respectively. A methodology for predicting the economic food affordability within the framework of ensuring food security is proposed, which can be used by public authorities at all levels to adjust key areas of agrarian socio-economic policy.