Econometric Model of Monetary Policy Impact on Principal Macroindices: Parameters Assessment and Experimental Calculations Results
In the article, being oriented to the theoretical general equilibrium model, intended for the investigation of the monetary policy impact on principal macroindices on the basis of monthly data of Belarusian economy of 2001-2011, a structural econometric model is built. The time series analysis gives evidence that the majority of them are non-stationary - first order integrated ones. Substantiated is the possibility of building of a vector model of correction of errors for the calculation of interconnected set of indices of export, import, domestic demand, money supply, inflation, speculative flows of capital, interest rates, terms of trade, GDP and gold and foreign exchange reserves. The statistical evaluation of the model gives evidence of its adequacy as a whole and of the possibility of its use for the purpose of the study of effects of the exchange and monetary policies (EMP). On the basis of the model investigated are responses on EMP impulses and studied is a possible EMP reaction on external shocks, typical for Belarusian economy: external demand decrease, sharp deterioration of conditions of trade in mineral resources used as sources of power, growth of world prices for oil. On the basis of the research, conclusions for monetary policy for the purpose of the principal targeted macroindices' balancing are made.