# How much Collection Power does a Splinterlands Chaos Legion pack give, on average?

(Edited)

I did the math, so you don't have to :)

As someone relatively new to Splinterlands and looking to get a higher collection power for my account, I was curious on a couple questions given the new Chaos Legion launch:

• How much power does a Chaos Legion pack give, on average?
• How would potions affect how much power I get per pack?
• Is it better to buy packs or buy cards on market, for maximum collection power?

## How much power per Chaos Legion pack, on average?

We have Chaos Legion collection power information from previous PeakD announcements, and we also have rarity drop chances on the official Splinterlands docs. It works out to be:

RarityCollection Power% chance
Legendary5000.8%
Epic1004%
Rare2020%
Common575.2%

On top of this, there is a 2% chance a card will turn gold. Gold cards have different collection power values:

RarityCollection Power
Legendary12500
Epic2500
Rare500
Common125

We can use the trusty expected value equation to turn our odds and values into a concrete number:

This might look scary - but simply says that the average collection power you get in a card will be the sum of all odds multiplied by their collection power values.

By using this equation and the above facts, we can calculate that a card should, on average, give you 23.32 power.

But wait!

There is an extra piece of information to consider. We know that each pack has 5 cards, and 1 card is guaranteed to be rare or higher. This means that 4 cards in the pack will have a certain average collection power (no guarantees), and 1 card will have a different average collection power (guaranteed rare or higher).

To calculate the average collection power when there is a guarantee, we need to create a new rarity table:

• The usual chance of getting a rare or higher drop is 24.8% (0.8% legendary, 4% epic, 20% rare)
• Now, the chance is 100%
• Therefore, to normalise, we need to multiply odds by 100% / 24.8% = 4.032
RarityNew odds (on the guaranteed rare or higher roll)
Legendary3.23%
Epic16.13%
Rare80.65%
Common0%

Using these numbers, we can calculate an expected collection power of 71.61 for the guaranteed rare or higher card.

Therefore, each Chaos Legion pack will provide 164.91 collection power (on average).

(Note: during presale, there is a 2% chance to get a promo card. We don't know how much CP this might give, but will add to the benefit).

This means, to get 15,000 power (the threshold for Silver III) you need to buy 91 packs, assuming you're averagely lucky.

## How would potions affect how much power I get per pack?

Legendary potions double the legendary chances per card, from 0.8% to 1.6%. Gold potions double the chances of a gold card, from 2% to 4%.
This naturally raises our collection power per pack, but by how much?

Here's the math:

For legendary potions, we can construct a new rarity table:

Rarity% chance
Legendary1.6%
Epic3.97%
Rare19.84%
Common74.6%

Note: I've made an assumption here that the odds of getting a non-legendary have been reduced proportionately to their previous weights. There is nothing I can find on official docs / Discord that actually explains the logic here (if anyone knows, please leave a comment!)

Again, using the expected value equation we find that:

• The collection power of a card using a legendary potion is 29.11.
• The collection power of a card using a legendary potion, where rare or higher is guaranteed, is 89.36.
• Therefore, the collection power of a pack where you use legendary potions on all 5 cards is 205.78.

Another note: it is not super clear whether your "rare or higher" card is affected by a potion, but I have just assumed it applies as normal.

Repeating the analysis for gold potions:

• The collection power of a card using a gold potion is 30.89.
• The collection power of a card using a gold potion, where rare or higher is guaranteed, is 94.84.
• Therefore, the collection power of a pack where you use gold potions on all 5 cards is 218.4.

So for collection power maximisation purposes, gold potions are better than legendary potions.

## Is it better to buy packs or buy cards on the market, for maximum collection power?

It is hard to calculate this. For pre-sale, it entirely depends on the price of VOUCHER which we must consider as part of the pack cost.

After pre-sale, looking at Peakmonsters today (16 Oct 2021) shows the best CP per USD cards going for ~30-32 CP per USD. Seeing as each Chaos Legion pack will be \$4 USD pack, and gives us an average collection power of 164.9 CP, this means the pack gives 41.2CP per USD. This is better than the market today, which indicate to buy Chaos Legion packs.

Of course, we don't know what will happen to the market after Chaos Legion launches though.

Common wisdom from card games suggests that if you really want to maximize CP, you should probably wait to buy cards on the market - opening packs will always be a gamble where you slightly lose in the long run (on average). It's still fun though!

All of my calculations were done on Google Sheets, feel free to DM me if you'd like to take a closer look:

Hope you enjoyed and learnt something that can help you with your Chaos Legion strategy! This is my first post on PeakD so apologies if I messed up somewhere.

@yoog

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Hello, @yoog! This is @traciyork from the @ocd (Original Content Decentralized) curation team. We noticed you shared your first post here on Hive - congratulations and welcome! I'm not that familiar with Splinterlands but I'd say this was an awesome explanation of the Chaos Legion pack.

It would also be awesome if you could do an introduction post, so our community can get to know you better. For information on how to write an intro post, please check out the SELF INTRODUCTION section of the post 3 things Newbies should do in their first week on Hive.

Speaking of community, we have many different ones here on the blockchain, devoted to all kinds of interests. Here's a link so you can check them all out - Hive Communities . I think you'll find these two particularly interesting to start off with -

Splinterlands

Hive Gaming Community

Also, as Hive can sometimes be quite confusing, the newly launched Newbies Guide should be helpful to you, as it is a growing repository of useful and easy to understand posts about how the Hive ecosystem works.

Please be aware that Hive is a bit different from other social media platforms since you are monetizing your blog, so it is important not to include content that you don't own without sources (and it shouldn't exceed 50% of the post). For more information, check this post - Why and How People Abuse and Plagiarise by hivewatchers.

Since you're new, you may run into an RC (Resource Credits) error when trying to comment/post because you don't yet have enough Hive in your account yet. For assistance with a temporary delegation to get you started, be sure to check out the Gift Giver site.

For now, @lovesniper will follow your account and we are looking forward to seeing your intro post. Also, please mention (also known as tagging) @traciyork & @lovesniper in your intro post in order for us to be notified, so we can consider your post for OCD curation. Lastly, feel free to hop into the OCD Discord server if you have any questions!

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Great post about the upcoming Chaos Legion! WOW! And your first post on HIVE as well? Welcome! You've been manually curated by rosiew at 1UP!

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Good post about Chas Legions and the pre-sale. You've been upvoted by rosiew.
Your post has been manually curated by @monster-curator Team!

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Congratulations @yoog! You have completed the following achievement on the Hive blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :

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Good work, thanks for calculating, we need this important imformation!

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This is awesome! I really enjoy posts like these. It saves me time instead of doing the math myself lol

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