Daily Papers

The quadratic computational complexity of the attention mechanism in current Large Language Models (LLMs) renders inference with long contexts prohibitively expensive. To address this challenge, various approaches aim to retain critical portions of the context to optimally approximate Full Attention (FA) through Key-Value (KV) compression or Sparse Attention (SA), enabling the processing of virtually unlimited text lengths in a streaming manner. However, these methods struggle to achieve performance levels comparable to FA, particularly in retrieval tasks. In this paper, our analysis of attention head patterns reveals that LLMs' attention distributions show strong local correlations, naturally reflecting a chunking mechanism for input context. We propose Ltri-LLM framework, which divides KVs into spans, stores them in an offline index, and retrieves the relevant KVs into memory for various queries. Experimental results on popular long text benchmarks show that Ltri-LLM can achieve performance close to FA while maintaining efficient, streaming-based inference.

With recent generative models facilitating photo-realistic image synthesis, the proliferation of synthetic images has also engendered certain negative impacts on social platforms, thereby raising an urgent imperative to develop effective detectors. Current synthetic image detection (SID) pipelines are primarily dedicated to crafting universal artifact features, accompanied by an oversight about SID training paradigm. In this paper, we re-examine the SID problem and identify two prevalent biases in current training paradigms, i.e., weakened artifact features and overfitted artifact features. Meanwhile, we discover that the imaging mechanism of synthetic images contributes to heightened local correlations among pixels, suggesting that detectors should be equipped with local awareness. In this light, we propose SAFE, a lightweight and effective detector with three simple image transformations. Firstly, for weakened artifact features, we substitute the down-sampling operator with the crop operator in image pre-processing to help circumvent artifact distortion. Secondly, for overfitted artifact features, we include ColorJitter and RandomRotation as additional data augmentations, to help alleviate irrelevant biases from color discrepancies and semantic differences in limited training samples. Thirdly, for local awareness, we propose a patch-based random masking strategy tailored for SID, forcing the detector to focus on local regions at training. Comparative experiments are conducted on an open-world dataset, comprising synthetic images generated by 26 distinct generative models. Our pipeline achieves a new state-of-the-art performance, with remarkable improvements of 4.5% in accuracy and 2.9% in average precision against existing methods. Our code is available at: https://github.com/Ouxiang-Li/SAFE.

Graph-based deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Differently from traditional multivariate forecasting methods, neural graph-based predictors take advantage of pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on a (possibly dynamic) graph spanning the time series collection. The conditioning can take the form of an architectural inductive bias on the neural forecasting architecture, resulting in a family of deep learning models called spatiotemporal graph neural networks. Such relational inductive biases enable the training of global forecasting models on large time-series collections, while at the same time localizing predictions w.r.t. each element in the set (i.e., graph nodes) by accounting for local correlations among them (i.e., graph edges). Indeed, recent theoretical and practical advances in graph neural networks and deep learning for time series forecasting make the adoption of such processing frameworks appealing and timely. However, most of the studies in the literature focus on proposing variations of existing neural architectures by taking advantage of modern deep learning practices, while foundational and methodological aspects have not been subject to systematic investigation. To fill the gap, this paper aims to introduce a comprehensive methodological framework that formalizes the forecasting problem and provides design principles for graph-based predictive models and methods to assess their performance. At the same time, together with an overview of the field, we provide design guidelines, recommendations, and best practices, as well as an in-depth discussion of open challenges and future research directions.

This paper presents a new sequence-to-sequence pre-training model called ProphetNet, which introduces a novel self-supervised objective named future n-gram prediction and the proposed n-stream self-attention mechanism. Instead of optimizing one-step-ahead prediction in the traditional sequence-to-sequence model, the ProphetNet is optimized by n-step ahead prediction that predicts the next n tokens simultaneously based on previous context tokens at each time step. The future n-gram prediction explicitly encourages the model to plan for the future tokens and prevent overfitting on strong local correlations. We pre-train ProphetNet using a base scale dataset (16GB) and a large-scale dataset (160GB), respectively. Then we conduct experiments on CNN/DailyMail, Gigaword, and SQuAD 1.1 benchmarks for abstractive summarization and question generation tasks. Experimental results show that ProphetNet achieves new state-of-the-art results on all these datasets compared to the models using the same scale pre-training corpus.

Despite substantial progress in 3D human pose estimation from a single-view image, prior works rarely explore global and local correlations, leading to insufficient learning of human skeleton representations. To address this issue, we propose a novel Interweaved Graph and Attention Network (IGANet) that allows bidirectional communications between graph convolutional networks (GCNs) and attentions. Specifically, we introduce an IGA module, where attentions are provided with local information from GCNs and GCNs are injected with global information from attentions. Additionally, we design a simple yet effective U-shaped multi-layer perceptron (uMLP), which can capture multi-granularity information for body joints. Extensive experiments on two popular benchmark datasets (i.e. Human3.6M and MPI-INF-3DHP) are conducted to evaluate our proposed method.The results show that IGANet achieves state-of-the-art performance on both datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/xiu-cs/IGANet.

Lane detection is a challenging task that requires predicting complex topology shapes of lane lines and distinguishing different types of lanes simultaneously. Earlier works follow a top-down roadmap to regress predefined anchors into various shapes of lane lines, which lacks enough flexibility to fit complex shapes of lanes due to the fixed anchor shapes. Lately, some works propose to formulate lane detection as a keypoint estimation problem to describe the shapes of lane lines more flexibly and gradually group adjacent keypoints belonging to the same lane line in a point-by-point manner, which is inefficient and time-consuming during postprocessing. In this paper, we propose a Global Association Network (GANet) to formulate the lane detection problem from a new perspective, where each keypoint is directly regressed to the starting point of the lane line instead of point-by-point extension. Concretely, the association of keypoints to their belonged lane line is conducted by predicting their offsets to the corresponding starting points of lanes globally without dependence on each other, which could be done in parallel to greatly improve efficiency. In addition, we further propose a Lane-aware Feature Aggregator (LFA), which adaptively captures the local correlations between adjacent keypoints to supplement local information to the global association. Extensive experiments on two popular lane detection benchmarks show that our method outperforms previous methods with F1 score of 79.63% on CULane and 97.71% on Tusimple dataset with high FPS. The code will be released at https://github.com/Wolfwjs/GANet.

Learning-based optical flow estimation has been dominated with the pipeline of cost volume with convolutions for flow regression, which is inherently limited to local correlations and thus is hard to address the long-standing challenge of large displacements. To alleviate this, the state-of-the-art framework RAFT gradually improves its prediction quality by using a large number of iterative refinements, achieving remarkable performance but introducing linearly increasing inference time. To enable both high accuracy and efficiency, we completely revamp the dominant flow regression pipeline by reformulating optical flow as a global matching problem, which identifies the correspondences by directly comparing feature similarities. Specifically, we propose a GMFlow framework, which consists of three main components: a customized Transformer for feature enhancement, a correlation and softmax layer for global feature matching, and a self-attention layer for flow propagation. We further introduce a refinement step that reuses GMFlow at higher feature resolution for residual flow prediction. Our new framework outperforms 31-refinements RAFT on the challenging Sintel benchmark, while using only one refinement and running faster, suggesting a new paradigm for accurate and efficient optical flow estimation. Code is available at https://github.com/haofeixu/gmflow.

We present a novel model for Tracking Any Point (TAP) that effectively tracks any queried point on any physical surface throughout a video sequence. Our approach employs two stages: (1) a matching stage, which independently locates a suitable candidate point match for the query point on every other frame, and (2) a refinement stage, which updates both the trajectory and query features based on local correlations. The resulting model surpasses all baseline methods by a significant margin on the TAP-Vid benchmark, as demonstrated by an approximate 20% absolute average Jaccard (AJ) improvement on DAVIS. Our model facilitates fast inference on long and high-resolution video sequences. On a modern GPU, our implementation has the capacity to track points faster than real-time, and can be flexibly extended to higher-resolution videos. Given the high-quality trajectories extracted from a large dataset, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept diffusion model which generates trajectories from static images, enabling plausible animations. Visualizations, source code, and pretrained models can be found on our project webpage.

The theory of open quantum systems lays the foundations for a substantial part of modern research in quantum science and engineering. Rooted in the dimensionality of their extended Hilbert spaces, the high computational complexity of simulating open quantum systems calls for the development of strategies to approximate their dynamics. In this paper, we present an approach for tackling open quantum system dynamics. Using an exact probabilistic formulation of quantum physics based on positive operator-valued measure (POVM), we compactly represent quantum states with autoregressive transformer neural networks; such networks bring significant algorithmic flexibility due to efficient exact sampling and tractable density. We further introduce the concept of String States to partially restore the symmetry of the autoregressive transformer neural network and improve the description of local correlations. Efficient algorithms have been developed to simulate the dynamics of the Liouvillian superoperator using a forward-backward trapezoid method and find the steady state via a variational formulation. Our approach is benchmarked on prototypical one and two-dimensional systems, finding results which closely track the exact solution and achieve higher accuracy than alternative approaches based on using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample restricted Boltzmann machines. Our work provides general methods for understanding quantum dynamics in various contexts, as well as techniques for solving high-dimensional probabilistic differential equations in classical setups.

Medical Visual Question Answering (Med-VQA) answers clinical questions using medical images, aiding diagnosis. Designing the MedVQA system holds profound importance in assisting clinical diagnosis and enhancing diagnostic accuracy. Building upon this foundation, Hierarchical Medical VQA extends Medical VQA by organizing medical questions into a hierarchical structure and making level-specific predictions to handle fine-grained distinctions. Recently, many studies have proposed hierarchical MedVQA tasks and established datasets, However, several issues still remain: (1) imperfect hierarchical modeling leads to poor differentiation between question levels causing semantic fragmentation across hierarchies. (2) Excessive reliance on implicit learning in Transformer-based cross-modal self-attention fusion methods, which obscures crucial local semantic correlations in medical scenarios. To address these issues, this study proposes a HiCA-VQA method, including two modules: Hierarchical Prompting for fine-grained medical questions and Hierarchical Answer Decoders. The hierarchical prompting module pre-aligns hierarchical text prompts with image features to guide the model in focusing on specific image regions according to question types, while the hierarchical decoder performs separate predictions for questions at different levels to improve accuracy across granularities. The framework also incorporates a cross-attention fusion module where images serve as queries and text as key-value pairs. Experiments on the Rad-Restruct benchmark demonstrate that the HiCA-VQA framework better outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods in answering hierarchical fine-grained questions. This study provides an effective pathway for hierarchical visual question answering systems, advancing medical image understanding.

Fine-tuned vision-language models (VLMs) often capture spurious correlations between image features and textual attributes, resulting in degraded zero-shot performance at test time. Existing approaches for addressing spurious correlations (i) primarily operate at the global image-level rather than intervening directly on fine-grained image features and (ii) are predominantly designed for unimodal settings. In this work, we present RaVL, which takes a fine-grained perspective on VLM robustness by discovering and mitigating spurious correlations using local image features rather than operating at the global image level. Given a fine-tuned VLM, RaVL first discovers spurious correlations by leveraging a region-level clustering approach to identify precise image features contributing to zero-shot classification errors. Then, RaVL mitigates the identified spurious correlation with a novel region-aware loss function that enables the VLM to focus on relevant regions and ignore spurious relationships during fine-tuning. We evaluate RaVL on 654 VLMs with various model architectures, data domains, and learned spurious correlations. Our results show that RaVL accurately discovers (191% improvement over the closest baseline) and mitigates (8.2% improvement on worst-group image classification accuracy) spurious correlations. Qualitative evaluations on general-domain and medical-domain VLMs confirm our findings.

Imbalanced distributions are ubiquitous in real-world data. They create constraints on Deep Neural Networks to represent the minority labels and avoid bias towards majority labels. The extensive body of imbalanced approaches address categorical label spaces but fail to effectively extend to regression problems where the label space is continuous. Local and global correlations among continuous labels provide valuable insights towards effectively modelling relationships in feature space. In this work, we propose ConR, a contrastive regularizer that models global and local label similarities in feature space and prevents the features of minority samples from being collapsed into their majority neighbours. ConR discerns the disagreements between the label space and feature space and imposes a penalty on these disagreements. ConR addresses the continuous nature of label space with two main strategies in a contrastive manner: incorrect proximities are penalized proportionate to the label similarities and the correct ones are encouraged to model local similarities. ConR consolidates essential considerations into a generic, easy-to-integrate, and efficient method that effectively addresses deep imbalanced regression. Moreover, ConR is orthogonal to existing approaches and smoothly extends to uni- and multi-dimensional label spaces. Our comprehensive experiments show that ConR significantly boosts the performance of all the state-of-the-art methods on four large-scale deep imbalanced regression benchmarks. Our code is publicly available in https://github.com/BorealisAI/ConR.

We propose a novel convolutional architecture, named genCNN, for word sequence prediction. Different from previous work on neural network-based language modeling and generation (e.g., RNN or LSTM), we choose not to greedily summarize the history of words as a fixed length vector. Instead, we use a convolutional neural network to predict the next word with the history of words of variable length. Also different from the existing feedforward networks for language modeling, our model can effectively fuse the local correlation and global correlation in the word sequence, with a convolution-gating strategy specifically designed for the task. We argue that our model can give adequate representation of the history, and therefore can naturally exploit both the short and long range dependencies. Our model is fast, easy to train, and readily parallelized. Our extensive experiments on text generation and n-best re-ranking in machine translation show that genCNN outperforms the state-of-the-arts with big margins.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models that were initially proposed for realistic image generation have recently shown success in various perception tasks (e.g., object detection and image segmentation) and are increasingly gaining attention in computer vision. However, extending such models to multi-frame human pose estimation is non-trivial due to the presence of the additional temporal dimension in videos. More importantly, learning representations that focus on keypoint regions is crucial for accurate localization of human joints. Nevertheless, the adaptation of the diffusion-based methods remains unclear on how to achieve such objective. In this paper, we present DiffPose, a novel diffusion architecture that formulates video-based human pose estimation as a conditional heatmap generation problem. First, to better leverage temporal information, we propose SpatioTemporal Representation Learner which aggregates visual evidences across frames and uses the resulting features in each denoising step as a condition. In addition, we present a mechanism called Lookup-based MultiScale Feature Interaction that determines the correlations between local joints and global contexts across multiple scales. This mechanism generates delicate representations that focus on keypoint regions. Altogether, by extending diffusion models, we show two unique characteristics from DiffPose on pose estimation task: (i) the ability to combine multiple sets of pose estimates to improve prediction accuracy, particularly for challenging joints, and (ii) the ability to adjust the number of iterative steps for feature refinement without retraining the model. DiffPose sets new state-of-the-art results on three benchmarks: PoseTrack2017, PoseTrack2018, and PoseTrack21.

In this paper, we present a Hybrid Spectral Denoising Transformer (HSDT) for hyperspectral image denoising. Challenges in adapting transformer for HSI arise from the capabilities to tackle existing limitations of CNN-based methods in capturing the global and local spatial-spectral correlations while maintaining efficiency and flexibility. To address these issues, we introduce a hybrid approach that combines the advantages of both models with a Spatial-Spectral Separable Convolution (S3Conv), Guided Spectral Self-Attention (GSSA), and Self-Modulated Feed-Forward Network (SM-FFN). Our S3Conv works as a lightweight alternative to 3D convolution, which extracts more spatial-spectral correlated features while keeping the flexibility to tackle HSIs with an arbitrary number of bands. These features are then adaptively processed by GSSA which per-forms 3D self-attention across the spectral bands, guided by a set of learnable queries that encode the spectral signatures. This not only enriches our model with powerful capabilities for identifying global spectral correlations but also maintains linear complexity. Moreover, our SM-FFN proposes the self-modulation that intensifies the activations of more informative regions, which further strengthens the aggregated features. Extensive experiments are conducted on various datasets under both simulated and real-world noise, and it shows that our HSDT significantly outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods while maintaining low computational overhead. Code is at https: //github.com/Zeqiang-Lai/HSDT.

Transformers for time series forecasting mainly model time series from limited or fixed scales, making it challenging to capture different characteristics spanning various scales. We propose Pathformer, a multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways. It integrates both temporal resolution and temporal distance for multi-scale modeling. Multi-scale division divides the time series into different temporal resolutions using patches of various sizes. Based on the division of each scale, dual attention is performed over these patches to capture global correlations and local details as temporal dependencies. We further enrich the multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways, which adaptively adjust the multi-scale modeling process based on the varying temporal dynamics of the input, improving the accuracy and generalization of Pathformer. Extensive experiments on eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that Pathformer not only achieves state-of-the-art performance by surpassing all current models but also exhibits stronger generalization abilities under various transfer scenarios. The code is made available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/pathformer.

Multivariate Time Series Classification (MTSC) is crucial in extensive practical applications, such as environmental monitoring, medical EEG analysis, and action recognition. Real-world time series datasets typically exhibit complex dynamics. To capture this complexity, RNN-based, CNN-based, Transformer-based, and hybrid models have been proposed. Unfortunately, current deep learning-based methods often neglect the simultaneous construction of local features and global dependencies at different time scales, lacking sufficient feature extraction capabilities to achieve satisfactory classification accuracy. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Multiscale Periodic Time Series Network (MPTSNet), which integrates multiscale local patterns and global correlations to fully exploit the inherent information in time series. Recognizing the multi-periodicity and complex variable correlations in time series, we use the Fourier transform to extract primary periods, enabling us to decompose data into multiscale periodic segments. Leveraging the inherent strengths of CNN and attention mechanism, we introduce the PeriodicBlock, which adaptively captures local patterns and global dependencies while offering enhanced interpretability through attention integration across different periodic scales. The experiments on UEA benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed MPTSNet outperforms 21 existing advanced baselines in the MTSC tasks.

Why do we build local large language models (LLMs)? What should a local LLM learn from the target language? Which abilities can be transferred from other languages? Do language-specific scaling laws exist? To explore these research questions, we evaluated 35 Japanese, English, and multilingual LLMs on 19 evaluation benchmarks for Japanese and English, taking Japanese as a local language. Adopting an observational approach, we analyzed correlations of benchmark scores, and conducted principal component analysis (PCA) on the scores to derive ability factors of local LLMs. We found that training on English text can improve the scores of academic subjects in Japanese (JMMLU). In addition, it is unnecessary to specifically train on Japanese text to enhance abilities for solving Japanese code generation, arithmetic reasoning, commonsense, and reading comprehension tasks. In contrast, training on Japanese text could improve question-answering tasks about Japanese knowledge and English-Japanese translation, which indicates that abilities for solving these two tasks can be regarded as Japanese abilities for LLMs. Furthermore, we confirmed that the Japanese abilities scale with the computational budget for Japanese text.

We show that Web and Research Agents (WRAs) -- language model-based systems that investigate complex topics on the Internet -- are vulnerable to inference attacks by passive network adversaries such as ISPs. These agents could be deployed locally by organizations and individuals for privacy, legal, or financial purposes. Unlike sporadic web browsing by humans, WRAs visit 70{-}140 domains with distinguishable timing correlations, enabling unique fingerprinting attacks. Specifically, we demonstrate a novel prompt and user trait leakage attack against WRAs that only leverages their network-level metadata (i.e., visited IP addresses and their timings). We start by building a new dataset of WRA traces based on user search queries and queries generated by synthetic personas. We define a behavioral metric (called OBELS) to comprehensively assess similarity between original and inferred prompts, showing that our attack recovers over 73% of the functional and domain knowledge of user prompts. Extending to a multi-session setting, we recover up to 19 of 32 latent traits with high accuracy. Our attack remains effective under partial observability and noisy conditions. Finally, we discuss mitigation strategies that constrain domain diversity or obfuscate traces, showing negligible utility impact while reducing attack effectiveness by an average of 29%.

Galaxy number counts suggest that we are located within the Gpc-scale KBC void. The Hubble tension might arise due to gravitationally driven outflow from this void, as explored in detail by Haslbauer et al. We explore how the impact of the void on redshift decays at large distances. We define H_0(z) as the present expansion rate H_0 that would be inferred from observations in a narrow redshift range centred on z. We find H_0(z) in three different ways, all of which give similar results. We then compare these results with the observations of Jia et al., who were careful to minimise the impact of correlations between H_0 measurements from data in different redshift bins. We find reasonable agreement with their results for the Gaussian and Exponential void underdensity profiles, although the agreement is less good in the Maxwell-Boltzmann case. The latter profile causes severe disagreement with the observed bulk flow curve at z < 0.1 (Mazurenko et al.), so the tension with higher redshift data further highlights that the deepest part of the KBC void is probably near its centre. The observations show a decline of H_0(z) towards the background Planck value in qualitative agreement with the considered models, even if we use a larger void. The good overall agreement with the recent results of Jia et al. suggests that the local supervoid evident from the galaxy luminosity density out to a Gpc might also solve the Hubble tension while retaining a low background H_0 consistent with Planck data, assuming enhanced structure formation on >100 Mpc scales.

Mining data streams with multi-label outputs poses significant challenges due to evolving distributions, high-dimensional label spaces, sparse label occurrences, and complex label dependencies. Moreover, concept drift affects not only input distributions but also label correlations and imbalance ratios over time, complicating model adaptation. To address these challenges, structured learners are categorized into local and global methods. Local methods break down the task into simpler components, while global methods adapt the algorithm to the full output space, potentially yielding better predictions by exploiting label correlations. This work introduces iHOMER (Incremental Hierarchy Of Multi-label Classifiers), an online multi-label learning framework that incrementally partitions the label space into disjoint, correlated clusters without relying on predefined hierarchies. iHOMER leverages online divisive-agglomerative clustering based on Jaccard similarity and a global tree-based learner driven by a multivariate Bernoulli process to guide instance partitioning. To address non-stationarity, it integrates drift detection mechanisms at both global and local levels, enabling dynamic restructuring of label partitions and subtrees. Experiments across 23 real-world datasets show iHOMER outperforms 5 state-of-the-art global baselines, such as MLHAT, MLHT of Pruned Sets and iSOUPT, by 23\%, and 12 local baselines, such as binary relevance transformations of kNN, EFDT, ARF, and ADWIN bagging/boosting ensembles, by 32\%, establishing its robustness for online multi-label classification.

Recurrent All-Pairs Field Transforms (RAFT) has shown great potentials in matching tasks. However, all-pairs correlations lack non-local geometry knowledge and have difficulties tackling local ambiguities in ill-posed regions. In this paper, we propose Iterative Geometry Encoding Volume (IGEV-Stereo), a new deep network architecture for stereo matching. The proposed IGEV-Stereo builds a combined geometry encoding volume that encodes geometry and context information as well as local matching details, and iteratively indexes it to update the disparity map. To speed up the convergence, we exploit GEV to regress an accurate starting point for ConvGRUs iterations. Our IGEV-Stereo ranks 1^{st} on KITTI 2015 and 2012 (Reflective) among all published methods and is the fastest among the top 10 methods. In addition, IGEV-Stereo has strong cross-dataset generalization as well as high inference efficiency. We also extend our IGEV to multi-view stereo (MVS), i.e. IGEV-MVS, which achieves competitive accuracy on DTU benchmark. Code is available at https://github.com/gangweiX/IGEV.

CLIP, as a vision-language model, has significantly advanced Open-Vocabulary Semantic Segmentation (OVSS) with its zero-shot capabilities. Despite its success, its application to OVSS faces challenges due to its initial image-level alignment training, which affects its performance in tasks requiring detailed local context. Our study delves into the impact of CLIP's [CLS] token on patch feature correlations, revealing a dominance of "global" patches that hinders local feature discrimination. To overcome this, we propose CLIPtrase, a novel training-free semantic segmentation strategy that enhances local feature awareness through recalibrated self-correlation among patches. This approach demonstrates notable improvements in segmentation accuracy and the ability to maintain semantic coherence across objects.Experiments show that we are 22.3% ahead of CLIP on average on 9 segmentation benchmarks, outperforming existing state-of-the-art training-free methods.The code are made publicly available at: https://github.com/leaves162/CLIPtrase.

Dense visual prediction tasks have been constrained by their reliance on predefined categories, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where visual concepts are unbounded. While Vision-Language Models (VLMs) like CLIP have shown promise in open-vocabulary tasks, their direct application to dense prediction often leads to suboptimal performance due to limitations in local feature representation. In this work, we present our observation that CLIP's image tokens struggle to effectively aggregate information from spatially or semantically related regions, resulting in features that lack local discriminability and spatial consistency. To address this issue, we propose DeCLIP, a novel framework that enhances CLIP by decoupling the self-attention module to obtain ``content'' and ``context'' features respectively. The ``content'' features are aligned with image crop representations to improve local discriminability, while ``context'' features learn to retain the spatial correlations under the guidance of vision foundation models, such as DINO. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DeCLIP significantly outperforms existing methods across multiple open-vocabulary dense prediction tasks, including object detection and semantic segmentation. Code is available at magenta{https://github.com/xiaomoguhz/DeCLIP}.

Dense visual perception tasks have been constrained by their reliance on predefined categories, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where visual concepts are unbounded. While Vision-Language Models (VLMs) like CLIP have shown promise in open-vocabulary tasks, their direct application to dense perception often leads to suboptimal performance due to limitations in local feature representation. In this work, we present our observation that CLIP's image tokens struggle to effectively aggregate information from spatially or semantically related regions, resulting in features that lack local discriminability and spatial consistency. To address this issue, we propose DeCLIP, a novel framework that enhances CLIP by decoupling the self-attention module to obtain ``content'' and ``context'' features respectively. The context features are enhanced by jointly distilling semantic correlations from Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) and object integrity cues from diffusion models, thereby enhancing spatial consistency. In parallel, the content features are aligned with image crop representations and constrained by region correlations from VFMs to improve local discriminability. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DeCLIP establishes a solid foundation for open-vocabulary dense perception, consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance across a broad spectrum of tasks, including 2D detection and segmentation, 3D instance segmentation, video instance segmentation, and 6D object pose estimation. Code is available at https://github.com/xiaomoguhz/DeCLIP

Modern diffusion models encounter a fundamental trade-off between training efficiency and generation quality. While existing representation alignment methods, such as REPA, accelerate convergence through patch-wise alignment, they often fail to capture structural relationships within visual representations and ensure global distribution consistency between pretrained encoders and denoising networks. To address these limitations, we introduce SARA, a hierarchical alignment framework that enforces multi-level representation constraints: (1) patch-wise alignment to preserve local semantic details, (2) autocorrelation matrix alignment to maintain structural consistency within representations, and (3) adversarial distribution alignment to mitigate global representation discrepancies. Unlike previous approaches, SARA explicitly models both intra-representation correlations via self-similarity matrices and inter-distribution coherence via adversarial alignment, enabling comprehensive alignment across local and global scales. Experiments on ImageNet-256 show that SARA achieves an FID of 1.36 while converging twice as fast as REPA, surpassing recent state-of-the-art image generation methods. This work establishes a systematic paradigm for optimizing diffusion training through hierarchical representation alignment.

Continuous space-time video super-resolution (C-STVSR) endeavors to upscale videos simultaneously at arbitrary spatial and temporal scales, which has recently garnered increasing interest. However, prevailing methods struggle to yield satisfactory videos at out-of-distribution spatial and temporal scales. On the other hand, event streams characterized by high temporal resolution and high dynamic range, exhibit compelling promise in vision tasks. This paper presents EvEnhancer, an innovative approach that marries the unique advantages of event streams to elevate effectiveness, efficiency, and generalizability for C-STVSR. Our approach hinges on two pivotal components: 1) Event-adapted synthesis capitalizes on the spatiotemporal correlations between frames and events to discern and learn long-term motion trajectories, enabling the adaptive interpolation and fusion of informative spatiotemporal features; 2) Local implicit video transformer integrates local implicit video neural function with cross-scale spatiotemporal attention to learn continuous video representations utilized to generate plausible videos at arbitrary resolutions and frame rates. Experiments show that EvEnhancer achieves superiority on synthetic and real-world datasets and preferable generalizability on out-of-distribution scales against state-of-the-art methods. Code is available at https://github.com/W-Shuoyan/EvEnhancer.

For the past ten years, CNN has reigned supreme in the world of computer vision, but recently, Transformer has been on the rise. However, the quadratic computational cost of self-attention has become a serious problem in practice applications. There has been much research on architectures without CNN and self-attention in this context. In particular, MLP-Mixer is a simple architecture designed using MLPs and hit an accuracy comparable to the Vision Transformer. However, the only inductive bias in this architecture is the embedding of tokens. This leaves open the possibility of incorporating a non-convolutional (or non-local) inductive bias into the architecture, so we used two simple ideas to incorporate inductive bias into the MLP-Mixer while taking advantage of its ability to capture global correlations. A way is to divide the token-mixing block vertically and horizontally. Another way is to make spatial correlations denser among some channels of token-mixing. With this approach, we were able to improve the accuracy of the MLP-Mixer while reducing its parameters and computational complexity. The small model that is RaftMLP-S is comparable to the state-of-the-art global MLP-based model in terms of parameters and efficiency per calculation. In addition, we tackled the problem of fixed input image resolution for global MLP-based models by utilizing bicubic interpolation. We demonstrated that these models could be applied as the backbone of architectures for downstream tasks such as object detection. However, it did not have significant performance and mentioned the need for MLP-specific architectures for downstream tasks for global MLP-based models. The source code in PyTorch version is available at https://github.com/okojoalg/raft-mlp.

Mobile agents have attracted tremendous research participation recently. Traditional approaches to mobile agent training rely on centralized data collection, leading to high cost and limited scalability. Distributed training utilizing federated learning offers an alternative by harnessing real-world user data, providing scalability and reducing costs. However, pivotal challenges, including the absence of standardized benchmarks, hinder progress in this field. To tackle the challenges, we introduce FedMABench, the first benchmark for federated training and evaluation of mobile agents, specifically designed for heterogeneous scenarios. FedMABench features 6 datasets with 30+ subsets, 8 federated algorithms, 10+ base models, and over 800 apps across 5 categories, providing a comprehensive framework for evaluating mobile agents across diverse environments. Through extensive experiments, we uncover several key insights: federated algorithms consistently outperform local training; the distribution of specific apps plays a crucial role in heterogeneity; and, even apps from distinct categories can exhibit correlations during training. FedMABench is publicly available at: https://github.com/wwh0411/FedMABench with the datasets at: https://huggingface.co/datasets/wwh0411/FedMABench.

The YOLO series models reign supreme in real-time object detection due to their superior accuracy and computational efficiency. However, both the convolutional architectures of YOLO11 and earlier versions and the area-based self-attention mechanism introduced in YOLOv12 are limited to local information aggregation and pairwise correlation modeling, lacking the capability to capture global multi-to-multi high-order correlations, which limits detection performance in complex scenarios. In this paper, we propose YOLOv13, an accurate and lightweight object detector. To address the above-mentioned challenges, we propose a Hypergraph-based Adaptive Correlation Enhancement (HyperACE) mechanism that adaptively exploits latent high-order correlations and overcomes the limitation of previous methods that are restricted to pairwise correlation modeling based on hypergraph computation, achieving efficient global cross-location and cross-scale feature fusion and enhancement. Subsequently, we propose a Full-Pipeline Aggregation-and-Distribution (FullPAD) paradigm based on HyperACE, which effectively achieves fine-grained information flow and representation synergy within the entire network by distributing correlation-enhanced features to the full pipeline. Finally, we propose to leverage depthwise separable convolutions to replace vanilla large-kernel convolutions, and design a series of blocks that significantly reduce parameters and computational complexity without sacrificing performance. We conduct extensive experiments on the widely used MS COCO benchmark, and the experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance with fewer parameters and FLOPs. Specifically, our YOLOv13-N improves mAP by 3.0\% over YOLO11-N and by 1.5\% over YOLOv12-N. The code and models of our YOLOv13 model are available at: https://github.com/iMoonLab/yolov13.

Recent feature matching methods have achieved remarkable performance but lack efficiency consideration. In this paper, we revisit the mainstream detector-free matching pipeline and improve all its stages considering both accuracy and efficiency. We propose an Efficient Deep feature Matching network, EDM. We first adopt a deeper CNN with fewer dimensions to extract multi-level features. Then we present a Correlation Injection Module that conducts feature transformation on high-level deep features, and progressively injects feature correlations from global to local for efficient multi-scale feature aggregation, improving both speed and performance. In the refinement stage, a novel lightweight bidirectional axis-based regression head is designed to directly predict subpixel-level correspondences from latent features, avoiding the significant computational cost of explicitly locating keypoints on high-resolution local feature heatmaps. Moreover, effective selection strategies are introduced to enhance matching accuracy. Extensive experiments show that our EDM achieves competitive matching accuracy on various benchmarks and exhibits excellent efficiency, offering valuable best practices for real-world applications. The code is available at https://github.com/chicleee/EDM.

Image denoising is a fundamental challenge in computer vision, with applications in photography and medical imaging. While deep learning-based methods have shown remarkable success, their reliance on specific noise distributions limits generalization to unseen noise types and levels. Existing approaches attempt to address this with extensive training data and high computational resources but they still suffer from overfitting. To address these issues, we conduct image denoising by utilizing dynamically generated kernels via efficient operations. This approach helps prevent overfitting and improves resilience to unseen noise. Specifically, our method leverages a Feature Extraction Module for robust noise-invariant features, Global Statistics and Local Correlation Modules to capture comprehensive noise characteristics and structural correlations. The Kernel Prediction Module then employs these cues to produce pixel-wise varying kernels adapted to local structures, which are then applied iteratively for denoising. This ensures both efficiency and superior restoration quality. Despite being trained on single-level Gaussian noise, our compact model (~ 0.04 M) excels across diverse noise types and levels, demonstrating the promise of iterative dynamic filtering for practical image denoising.

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in deep learning-based pansharpening. Thus far, research has mainly focused on architectures. Nonetheless, model training is an equally important issue. A first problem is the absence of ground truths, unavoidable in pansharpening. This is often addressed by training networks in a reduced resolution domain and using the original data as ground truth, relying on an implicit scale invariance assumption. However, on full resolution images results are often disappointing, suggesting such invariance not to hold. A further problem is the scarcity of training data, which causes a limited generalization ability and a poor performance on off-training test images. In this paper, we propose a full-resolution training framework for deep learning-based pansharpening. The framework is fully general and can be used for any deep learning-based pansharpening model. Training takes place in the high-resolution domain, relying only on the original data, thus avoiding any loss of information. To ensure spectral and spatial fidelity, a suitable two-component loss is defined. The spectral component enforces consistency between the pansharpened output and the low-resolution multispectral input. The spatial component, computed at high-resolution, maximizes the local correlation between each pansharpened band and the panchromatic input. At testing time, the target-adaptive operating modality is adopted, achieving good generalization with a limited computational overhead. Experiments carried out on WorldView-3, WorldView-2, and GeoEye-1 images show that methods trained with the proposed framework guarantee a pretty good performance in terms of both full-resolution numerical indexes and visual quality.

Local graph clustering methods aim to detect small clusters in very large graphs without the need to process the whole graph. They are fundamental and scalable tools for a wide range of tasks such as local community detection, node ranking and node embedding. While prior work on local graph clustering mainly focuses on graphs without node attributes, modern real-world graph datasets typically come with node attributes that provide valuable additional information. We present a simple local graph clustering algorithm for graphs with node attributes, based on the idea of diffusing mass locally in the graph while accounting for both structural and attribute proximities. Using high-dimensional concentration results, we provide statistical guarantees on the performance of the algorithm for the recovery of a target cluster with a single seed node. We give conditions under which a target cluster generated from a fairly general contextual random graph model, which includes both the stochastic block model and the planted cluster model as special cases, can be fully recovered with bounded false positives. Empirically, we validate all theoretical claims using synthetic data, and we show that incorporating node attributes leads to superior local clustering performances using real-world graph datasets.

We propose a new localized inference algorithm for answering marginalization queries in large graphical models with the correlation decay property. Given a query variable and a large graphical model, we define a much smaller model in a local region around the query variable in the target model so that the marginal distribution of the query variable can be accurately approximated. We introduce two approximation error bounds based on the Dobrushin's comparison theorem and apply our bounds to derive a greedy expansion algorithm that efficiently guides the selection of neighbor nodes for localized inference. We verify our theoretical bounds on various datasets and demonstrate that our localized inference algorithm can provide fast and accurate approximation for large graphical models.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

Making statements about the performance of trained models on tasks involving new data is one of the primary goals of machine learning, i.e., to understand the generalization power of a model. Various capacity measures try to capture this ability, but usually fall short in explaining important characteristics of models that we observe in practice. In this study, we propose the local effective dimension as a capacity measure which seems to correlate well with generalization error on standard data sets. Importantly, we prove that the local effective dimension bounds the generalization error and discuss the aptness of this capacity measure for machine learning models.

Redundancies and correlations in the responses of sensory neurons seem to waste neural resources but can carry cues about structured stimuli and may help the brain to correct for response errors. To assess how the retina negotiates this tradeoff, we measured simultaneous responses from populations of ganglion cells presented with natural and artificial stimuli that varied greatly in correlation structure. We found that pairwise correlations in the retinal output remained similar across stimuli with widely different spatio-temporal correlations including white noise and natural movies. Meanwhile, purely spatial correlations tended to increase correlations in the retinal response. Responding to more correlated stimuli, ganglion cells had faster temporal kernels and tended to have stronger surrounds. These properties of individual cells, along with gain changes that opposed changes in effective contrast at the ganglion cell input, largely explained the similarity of pairwise correlations across stimuli where receptive field measurements were possible.

The higher-order correlation clustering problem is an expressive model, and recently, local search heuristics have been proposed for several applications. Certifying optimality, however, is NP-hard and practically hampered already by the complexity of the problem statement. Here, we focus on establishing partial optimality conditions for the special case of complete graphs and cubic objective functions. In addition, we define and implement algorithms for testing these conditions and examine their effect numerically, on two datasets.

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

We introduce LocoTrack, a highly accurate and efficient model designed for the task of tracking any point (TAP) across video sequences. Previous approaches in this task often rely on local 2D correlation maps to establish correspondences from a point in the query image to a local region in the target image, which often struggle with homogeneous regions or repetitive features, leading to matching ambiguities. LocoTrack overcomes this challenge with a novel approach that utilizes all-pair correspondences across regions, i.e., local 4D correlation, to establish precise correspondences, with bidirectional correspondence and matching smoothness significantly enhancing robustness against ambiguities. We also incorporate a lightweight correlation encoder to enhance computational efficiency, and a compact Transformer architecture to integrate long-term temporal information. LocoTrack achieves unmatched accuracy on all TAP-Vid benchmarks and operates at a speed almost 6 times faster than the current state-of-the-art.

We describe nonparametric deconvolution models (NDMs), a family of Bayesian nonparametric models for collections of data in which each observation is the average over the features from heterogeneous particles. For example, these types of data are found in elections, where we observe precinct-level vote tallies (observations) of individual citizens' votes (particles) across each of the candidates or ballot measures (features), where each voter is part of a specific voter cohort or demographic (factor). Like the hierarchical Dirichlet process, NDMs rely on two tiers of Dirichlet processes to explain the data with an unknown number of latent factors; each observation is modeled as a weighted average of these latent factors. Unlike existing models, NDMs recover how factor distributions vary locally for each observation. This uniquely allows NDMs both to deconvolve each observation into its constituent factors, and also to describe how the factor distributions specific to each observation vary across observations and deviate from the corresponding global factors. We present variational inference techniques for this family of models and study its performance on simulated data and voting data from California. We show that including local factors improves estimates of global factors and provides a novel scaffold for exploring data.

Time series clustering promises to uncover hidden structural patterns in data with applications across healthcare, finance, industrial systems, and other critical domains. However, without validated ground truth information, researchers cannot objectively assess clustering quality or determine whether poor results stem from absent structures in the data, algorithmic limitations, or inappropriate validation methods, raising the question whether clustering is "more art than science" (Guyon et al., 2009). To address these challenges, we introduce CSTS (Correlation Structures in Time Series), a synthetic benchmark for evaluating the discovery of correlation structures in multivariate time series data. CSTS provides a clean benchmark that enables researchers to isolate and identify specific causes of clustering failures by differentiating between correlation structure deterioration and limitations of clustering algorithms and validation methods. Our contributions are: (1) a comprehensive benchmark for correlation structure discovery with distinct correlation structures, systematically varied data conditions, established performance thresholds, and recommended evaluation protocols; (2) empirical validation of correlation structure preservation showing moderate distortion from downsampling and minimal effects from distribution shifts and sparsification; and (3) an extensible data generation framework enabling structure-first clustering evaluation. A case study demonstrates CSTS's practical utility by identifying an algorithm's previously undocumented sensitivity to non-normal distributions, illustrating how the benchmark enables precise diagnosis of methodological limitations. CSTS advances rigorous evaluation standards for correlation-based time series clustering.

Vision tasks are characterized by the properties of locality and translation invariance. The superior performance of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on these tasks is widely attributed to the inductive bias of locality and weight sharing baked into their architecture. Existing attempts to quantify the statistical benefits of these biases in CNNs over locally connected convolutional neural networks (LCNs) and fully connected neural networks (FCNs) fall into one of the following categories: either they disregard the optimizer and only provide uniform convergence upper bounds with no separating lower bounds, or they consider simplistic tasks that do not truly mirror the locality and translation invariance as found in real-world vision tasks. To address these deficiencies, we introduce the Dynamic Signal Distribution (DSD) classification task that models an image as consisting of k patches, each of dimension d, and the label is determined by a d-sparse signal vector that can freely appear in any one of the k patches. On this task, for any orthogonally equivariant algorithm like gradient descent, we prove that CNNs require O(k+d) samples, whereas LCNs require Omega(kd) samples, establishing the statistical advantages of weight sharing in translation invariant tasks. Furthermore, LCNs need O(k(k+d)) samples, compared to Omega(k^2d) samples for FCNs, showcasing the benefits of locality in local tasks. Additionally, we develop information theoretic tools for analyzing randomized algorithms, which may be of interest for statistical research.

Quantifying the similarity between two mathematical structures or datasets constitutes a particularly interesting and useful operation in several theoretical and applied problems. Aimed at this specific objective, the Jaccard index has been extensively used in the most diverse types of problems, also motivating some respective generalizations. The present work addresses further generalizations of this index, including its modification into a coincidence index capable of accounting also for the level of relative interiority between the two compared entities, as well as respective extensions for sets in continuous vector spaces, the generalization to multiset addition, densities and generic scalar fields, as well as a means to quantify the joint interdependence between two random variables. The also interesting possibility to take into account more than two sets has also been addressed, including the description of an index capable of quantifying the level of chaining between three structures. Several of the described and suggested eneralizations have been illustrated with respect to numeric case examples. It is also posited that these indices can play an important role while analyzing and integrating datasets in modeling approaches and pattern recognition activities, including as a measurement of clusters similarity or separation and as a resource for representing and analyzing complex networks.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We document a statistically significant positive correlation between the sentiment score and future equity market returns over short to medium term, which reverts to a negative correlation over longer horizons. Validation of this correlation pattern across multiple equity markets indicates its robustness across equity regions and resilience to non-linearity, evidenced by comparison of Pearson and Spearman correlations. Finally, we provide an estimate of the optimal horizon that strikes a balance between reactivity to new information and correlation.

Sparse autoencoders have recently produced dictionaries of high-dimensional vectors corresponding to the universe of concepts represented by large language models. We find that this concept universe has interesting structure at three levels: 1) The "atomic" small-scale structure contains "crystals" whose faces are parallelograms or trapezoids, generalizing well-known examples such as (man-woman-king-queen). We find that the quality of such parallelograms and associated function vectors improves greatly when projecting out global distractor directions such as word length, which is efficiently done with linear discriminant analysis. 2) The "brain" intermediate-scale structure has significant spatial modularity; for example, math and code features form a "lobe" akin to functional lobes seen in neural fMRI images. We quantify the spatial locality of these lobes with multiple metrics and find that clusters of co-occurring features, at coarse enough scale, also cluster together spatially far more than one would expect if feature geometry were random. 3) The "galaxy" scale large-scale structure of the feature point cloud is not isotropic, but instead has a power law of eigenvalues with steepest slope in middle layers. We also quantify how the clustering entropy depends on the layer.

Tangles were originally introduced as a concept to formalize regions of high connectivity in graphs. In recent years, they have also been discovered as a link between structural graph theory and data science: when interpreting similarity in data sets as connectivity between points, finding clusters in the data essentially amounts to finding tangles in the underlying graphs. This paper further explores the potential of tangles in data sets as a means for a formal study of clusters. Real-world data often follow a normal distribution. Accounting for this, we develop a quantitative theory of tangles in data sets drawn from Gaussian mixtures. To this end, we equip the data with a graph structure that models similarity between the points and allows us to apply tangle theory to the data. We provide explicit conditions under which tangles associated with the marginal Gaussian distributions exist asymptotically almost surely. This can be considered as a sufficient formal criterion for the separabability of clusters in the data.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

Systems of interacting objects often evolve under the influence of field effects that govern their dynamics, yet previous works have abstracted away from such effects, and assume that systems evolve in a vacuum. In this work, we focus on discovering these fields, and infer them from the observed dynamics alone, without directly observing them. We theorize the presence of latent force fields, and propose neural fields to learn them. Since the observed dynamics constitute the net effect of local object interactions and global field effects, recently popularized equivariant networks are inapplicable, as they fail to capture global information. To address this, we propose to disentangle local object interactions -- which are SE(n) equivariant and depend on relative states -- from external global field effects -- which depend on absolute states. We model interactions with equivariant graph networks, and combine them with neural fields in a novel graph network that integrates field forces. Our experiments show that we can accurately discover the underlying fields in charged particles settings, traffic scenes, and gravitational n-body problems, and effectively use them to learn the system and forecast future trajectories.

Deep neural networks conventionally employ end-to-end backpropagation for their training process, which lacks biological credibility and triggers a locking dilemma during network parameter updates, leading to significant GPU memory use. Supervised local learning, which segments the network into multiple local blocks updated by independent auxiliary networks. However, these methods cannot replace end-to-end training due to lower accuracy, as gradients only propagate within their local block, creating a lack of information exchange between blocks. To address this issue and establish information transfer across blocks, we propose a Momentum Auxiliary Network (MAN) that establishes a dynamic interaction mechanism. The MAN leverages an exponential moving average (EMA) of the parameters from adjacent local blocks to enhance information flow. This auxiliary network, updated through EMA, helps bridge the informational gap between blocks. Nevertheless, we observe that directly applying EMA parameters has certain limitations due to feature discrepancies among local blocks. To overcome this, we introduce learnable biases, further boosting performance. We have validated our method on four image classification datasets (CIFAR-10, STL-10, SVHN, ImageNet), attaining superior performance and substantial memory savings. Notably, our method can reduce GPU memory usage by more than 45\% on the ImageNet dataset compared to end-to-end training, while achieving higher performance. The Momentum Auxiliary Network thus offers a new perspective for supervised local learning. Our code is available at: https://github.com/JunhaoSu0/MAN.

In this study, we examine the efficacy of post-hoc local attribution methods in identifying features with predictive power from irrelevant ones in domains characterized by a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), a common scenario in real-world machine learning applications. We developed synthetic datasets encompassing symbolic functional, image, and audio data, incorporating a benchmark on the {\it (Model \(\times\) Attribution\(\times\) Noise Condition)} triplet. By rigorously testing various classic models trained from scratch, we gained valuable insights into the performance of these attribution methods in multiple conditions. Based on these findings, we introduce a novel extension to the notable recursive feature elimination (RFE) algorithm, enhancing its applicability for neural networks. Our experiments highlight its strengths in prediction and feature selection, alongside limitations in scalability. Further details and additional minor findings are included in the appendix, with extensive discussions. The codes and resources are available at https://github.com/geshijoker/ChaosMining/{URL}.

We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

Given a pair of partially overlapping source and target images and a keypoint in the source image, the keypoint's correspondent in the target image can be either visible, occluded or outside the field of view. Local feature matching methods are only able to identify the correspondent's location when it is visible, while humans can also hallucinate its location when it is occluded or outside the field of view through geometric reasoning. In this paper, we bridge this gap by training a network to output a peaked probability distribution over the correspondent's location, regardless of this correspondent being visible, occluded, or outside the field of view. We experimentally demonstrate that this network is indeed able to hallucinate correspondences on pairs of images captured in scenes that were not seen at training-time. We also apply this network to an absolute camera pose estimation problem and find it is significantly more robust than state-of-the-art local feature matching-based competitors.

The growing interest in machine learning problems over graphs with additional node information such as texts, images, or labels has popularized methods that require the costly operation of processing the entire graph. Yet, little effort has been made to the development of fast local methods (i.e. without accessing the entire graph) that extract useful information from such data. To that end, we propose a study of local graph clustering using noisy node labels as a proxy for additional node information. In this setting, nodes receive initial binary labels based on cluster affiliation: 1 if they belong to the target cluster and 0 otherwise. Subsequently, a fraction of these labels is flipped. We investigate the benefits of incorporating noisy labels for local graph clustering. By constructing a weighted graph with such labels, we study the performance of graph diffusion-based local clustering method on both the original and the weighted graphs. From a theoretical perspective, we consider recovering an unknown target cluster with a single seed node in a random graph with independent noisy node labels. We provide sufficient conditions on the label noise under which, with high probability, using diffusion in the weighted graph yields a more accurate recovery of the target cluster. This approach proves more effective than using the given labels alone or using diffusion in the label-free original graph. Empirically, we show that reliable node labels can be obtained with just a few samples from an attributed graph. Moreover, utilizing these labels via diffusion in the weighted graph leads to significantly better local clustering performance across several real-world datasets, improving F1 scores by up to 13%.

Deep neural networks are typically trained using global error signals that backpropagate (BP) end-to-end, which is not only biologically implausible but also suffers from the update locking problem and requires huge memory consumption. Local learning, which updates each layer independently with a gradient-isolated auxiliary network, offers a promising alternative to address the above problems. However, existing local learning methods are confronted with a large accuracy gap with the BP counterpart, particularly for large-scale networks. This is due to the weak coupling between local layers and their subsequent network layers, as there is no gradient communication across layers. To tackle this issue, we put forward an augmented local learning method, dubbed AugLocal. AugLocal constructs each hidden layer's auxiliary network by uniformly selecting a small subset of layers from its subsequent network layers to enhance their synergy. We also propose to linearly reduce the depth of auxiliary networks as the hidden layer goes deeper, ensuring sufficient network capacity while reducing the computational cost of auxiliary networks. Our extensive experiments on four image classification datasets (i.e., CIFAR-10, SVHN, STL-10, and ImageNet) demonstrate that AugLocal can effectively scale up to tens of local layers with a comparable accuracy to BP-trained networks while reducing GPU memory usage by around 40%. The proposed AugLocal method, therefore, opens up a myriad of opportunities for training high-performance deep neural networks on resource-constrained platforms.Code is available at https://github.com/ChenxiangMA/AugLocal.

Spurious correlations allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test distributions. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving correlation-inducing nuisance variables have guarantees on their test performance. Enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. However, nuisances, such as demographics or image background labels, are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. Here we derive mmd estimators used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, optimizing through these estimates achieves test performance similar to using estimators that make use of the full data.

Transformer architectures have achieved remarkable success in various domains. While efficient alternatives to Softmax Attention have been widely studied, the search for more expressive mechanisms grounded in theoretical insight-even at greater computational cost-has been relatively underexplored. In this work, we bridge this gap by proposing Local Linear Attention (LLA), a novel attention mechanism derived from nonparametric statistics through the lens of test-time regression. First, we show that LLA offers theoretical advantages over Linear and Softmax Attention for associative memory via a bias-variance trade-off analysis. Next, we address its computational challenges and propose two memory-efficient primitives to tackle the Theta(n^2 d) and Theta(n d^2) complexity. We then introduce FlashLLA, a hardware-efficient, blockwise algorithm that enables scalable and parallel computation on modern accelerators. In addition, we implement and profile a customized inference kernel that significantly reduces memory overheads. Finally, we empirically validate the advantages and limitations of LLA on test-time regression, in-context regression, associative recall and state tracking tasks. Experiment results demonstrate that LLA effectively adapts to non-stationarity, outperforming strong baselines in test-time training and in-context learning, and exhibiting promising evidence for its scalability and applicability in large-scale models. Code is available at https://github.com/Yifei-Zuo/Flash-LLA.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have achieved remarkable performance on graph-based tasks. The key idea for GNNs is to obtain informative representation through aggregating information from local neighborhoods. However, it remains an open question whether the neighborhood information is adequately aggregated for learning representations of nodes with few neighbors. To address this, we propose a simple and efficient data augmentation strategy, local augmentation, to learn the distribution of the node features of the neighbors conditioned on the central node's feature and enhance GNN's expressive power with generated features. Local augmentation is a general framework that can be applied to any GNN model in a plug-and-play manner. It samples feature vectors associated with each node from the learned conditional distribution as additional input for the backbone model at each training iteration. Extensive experiments and analyses show that local augmentation consistently yields performance improvement when applied to various GNN architectures across a diverse set of benchmarks. For example, experiments show that plugging in local augmentation to GCN and GAT improves by an average of 3.4\% and 1.6\% in terms of test accuracy on Cora, Citeseer, and Pubmed. Besides, our experimental results on large graphs (OGB) show that our model consistently improves performance over backbones. Code is available at https://github.com/SongtaoLiu0823/LAGNN.

Few-shot image classification(FSIC) aims to recognize novel classes given few labeled images from base classes. Recent works have achieved promising classification performance, especially for metric-learning methods, where a measure at only image feature level is usually used. In this paper, we argue that measure at such a level may not be effective enough to generalize from base to novel classes when using only a few images. Instead, a multi-level descriptor of an image is taken for consideration in this paper. We propose a multi-level correlation network (MLCN) for FSIC to tackle this problem by effectively capturing local information. Concretely, we present the self-correlation module and cross-correlation module to learn the semantic correspondence relation of local information based on learned representations. Moreover, we propose a pattern-correlation module to capture the pattern of fine-grained images and find relevant structural patterns between base classes and novel classes. Extensive experiments and analysis show the effectiveness of our proposed method on four widely-used FSIC benchmarks. The code for our approach is available at: https://github.com/Yunkai696/MLCN.

We identify rare and visually distinctive galaxy populations by searching for structure within the learned representations of pretrained models. We show that these representations arrange galaxies by appearance in patterns beyond those needed to predict the pretraining labels. We design a clustering approach to isolate specific local patterns, revealing groups of galaxies with rare and scientifically-interesting morphologies.

Recent advances in diffusion models have improved controllable streetscape generation and supported downstream perception and planning tasks. However, challenges remain in accurately modeling driving scenes and generating long videos. To alleviate these issues, we propose DreamForge, an advanced diffusion-based autoregressive video generation model tailored for 3D-controllable long-term generation. To enhance the lane and foreground generation, we introduce perspective guidance and integrate object-wise position encoding to incorporate local 3D correlation and improve foreground object modeling. We also propose motion-aware temporal attention to capture motion cues and appearance changes in videos. By leveraging motion frames and an autoregressive generation paradigm,we can autoregressively generate long videos (over 200 frames) using a model trained in short sequences, achieving superior quality compared to the baseline in 16-frame video evaluations. Finally, we integrate our method with the realistic simulator DriveArena to provide more reliable open-loop and closed-loop evaluations for vision-based driving agents. Project Page: https://pjlab-adg.github.io/DriveArena/dreamforge.

Humans have a powerful and mysterious capacity to reason. By working through a series of purely mental steps, we can make inferences we would not be capable of making directly -- despite the fact that we get no additional data from the world. Similarly, when large language models generate a series of intermediate steps (a chain of thought) before answering a question, they often produce better answers than they otherwise would. We investigate why and how chain-of-thought reasoning is useful in language models, testing the hypothesis that reasoning is effective when training data consists of local clusters of variables that influence each other strongly. These training conditions enable the chaining of accurate local inferences in order to estimate relationships between variables that were not seen together in training. We prove that there will exist a "reasoning gap", where reasoning through intermediate variables improves inference, for the simple case of an autoregressive density estimator trained on local samples from a chain-structured probabilistic model. We then test our hypothesis empirically in more complex models, training an autoregressive language model on samples from Bayes nets but only including a subset of variables in each sample. We test language models' ability to match conditional probabilities with and without intermediate reasoning steps, finding that intermediate steps are only helpful when the training data is locally structured with respect to dependencies between variables and that the combination of locally-structured observations and reasoning is much more data-efficient than training on all variables. Our results illustrate how the effectiveness of reasoning step by step is rooted in the local statistical structure of the training data.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

Representations learned via self-supervised learning (SSL) can be susceptible to dimensional collapse, where the learned representation subspace is of extremely low dimensionality and thus fails to represent the full data distribution and modalities. Dimensional collapse also known as the "underfilling" phenomenon is one of the major causes of degraded performance on downstream tasks. Previous work has investigated the dimensional collapse problem of SSL at a global level. In this paper, we demonstrate that representations can span over high dimensional space globally, but collapse locally. To address this, we propose a method called local dimensionality regularization (LDReg). Our formulation is based on the derivation of the Fisher-Rao metric to compare and optimize local distance distributions at an asymptotically small radius for each data point. By increasing the local intrinsic dimensionality, we demonstrate through a range of experiments that LDReg improves the representation quality of SSL. The results also show that LDReg can regularize dimensionality at both local and global levels.

Random walks are widely used for mining networks due to the computational efficiency of computing them. For instance, graph representation learning learns a d-dimensional embedding space, so that the nodes that tend to co-occur on random walks (a proxy of being in the same network neighborhood) are close in the embedding space. Specific local network topology (i.e., structure) influences the co-occurrence of nodes on random walks, so random walks of limited length capture only partial topological information, hence diminishing the performance of downstream methods. We explicitly capture all topological neighborhood information and improve performance by introducing orbit adjacencies that quantify the adjacencies of two nodes as co-occurring on a given pair of graphlet orbits, which are symmetric positions on graphlets (small, connected, non-isomorphic, induced subgraphs of a large network). Importantly, we mathematically prove that random walks on up to k nodes capture only a subset of all the possible orbit adjacencies for up to k-node graphlets. Furthermore, we enable orbit adjacency-based analysis of networks by developing an efficient GRaphlet-orbit ADjacency COunter (GRADCO), which exhaustively computes all 28 orbit adjacency matrices for up to four-node graphlets. Note that four-node graphlets suffice, because real networks are usually small-world. In large networks on around 20,000 nodes, GRADCOcomputesthe28matricesinminutes. Onsixrealnetworksfromvarious domains, we compare the performance of node-label predictors obtained by using the network embeddings based on our orbit adjacencies to those based on random walks. We find that orbit adjacencies, which include those unseen by random walks, outperform random walk-based adjacencies, demonstrating the importance of the inclusion of the topological neighborhood information that is unseen by random walks.

Differentially private learning algorithms inject noise into the learning process. While the most common private learning algorithm, DP-SGD, adds independent Gaussian noise in each iteration, recent work on matrix factorization mechanisms has shown empirically that introducing correlations in the noise can greatly improve their utility. We characterize the asymptotic learning utility for any choice of the correlation function, giving precise analytical bounds for linear regression and as the solution to a convex program for general convex functions. We show, using these bounds, how correlated noise provably improves upon vanilla DP-SGD as a function of problem parameters such as the effective dimension and condition number. Moreover, our analytical expression for the near-optimal correlation function circumvents the cubic complexity of the semi-definite program used to optimize the noise correlation matrix in previous work. We validate our theory with experiments on private deep learning. Our work matches or outperforms prior work while being efficient both in terms of compute and memory.

This study explores the recently proposed challenging multi-view Anomaly Detection (AD) task. Single-view tasks would encounter blind spots from other perspectives, resulting in inaccuracies in sample-level prediction. Therefore, we introduce the Multi-View Anomaly Detection (MVAD) framework, which learns and integrates features from multi-views. Specifically, we proposed a Multi-View Adaptive Selection (MVAS) algorithm for feature learning and fusion across multiple views. The feature maps are divided into neighbourhood attention windows to calculate a semantic correlation matrix between single-view windows and all other views, which is a conducted attention mechanism for each single-view window and the top-K most correlated multi-view windows. Adjusting the window sizes and top-K can minimise the computational complexity to linear. Extensive experiments on the Real-IAD dataset for cross-setting (multi/single-class) validate the effectiveness of our approach, achieving state-of-the-art performance among sample 4.1\%uparrow/ image 5.6\%uparrow/pixel 6.7\%uparrow levels with a total of ten metrics with only 18M parameters and fewer GPU memory and training time.

We introduce fast algorithms for correlation clustering with respect to the Min Max objective that provide constant factor approximations on complete graphs. Our algorithms are the first purely combinatorial approximation algorithms for this problem. We construct a novel semi-metric on the set of vertices, which we call the correlation metric, that indicates to our clustering algorithms whether pairs of nodes should be in the same cluster. The paper demonstrates empirically that, compared to prior work, our algorithms sacrifice little in the objective quality to obtain significantly better run-time. Moreover, our algorithms scale to larger networks that are effectively intractable for known algorithms.

The manifold hypothesis, which assumes that data lies on or close to an unknown manifold of low intrinsic dimension, is a staple of modern machine learning research. However, recent work has shown that real-world data exhibits distinct non-manifold structures, i.e. singularities, that can lead to erroneous findings. Detecting such singularities is therefore crucial as a precursor to interpolation and inference tasks. We address this issue by developing a topological framework that (i) quantifies the local intrinsic dimension, and (ii) yields a Euclidicity score for assessing the 'manifoldness' of a point along multiple scales. Our approach identifies singularities of complex spaces, while also capturing singular structures and local geometric complexity in image data.

Energy-energy correlators are constructed by averaging the number of charged particle pairs within jets, weighted by the product of their transverse momenta, as a function of the angular separation of the particles within a pair. They are sensitive to a multitude of perturbative and nonperturbative quantum chromodynamics phenomena in high-energy particle collisions. Using lead-lead data recorded with the CMS detector, energy-energy correlators inside high transverse momentum jets are measured in heavy ion collisions for the first time. The data are obtained at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 1.70 nb^{-1}. A similar analysis is done for proton-proton collisions at the same center-of-mass energy to establish a reference. The ratio of lead-lead to proton-proton energy-energy correlators reveals significant jet substructure modifications in the quark-gluon plasma. The results are compared to different models that incorporate either color coherence or medium response effects, where the two effects predict similar substructure modifications.

A modern challenge of Artificial Intelligence is learning multiple patterns at once (i.e.parallel learning). While this can not be accomplished by standard Hebbian associative neural networks, in this paper we show how the Multitasking Hebbian Network (a variation on theme of the Hopfield model working on sparse data-sets) is naturally able to perform this complex task. We focus on systems processing in parallel a finite (up to logarithmic growth in the size of the network) amount of patterns, mirroring the low-storage level of standard associative neural networks at work with pattern recognition. For mild dilution in the patterns, the network handles them hierarchically, distributing the amplitudes of their signals as power-laws w.r.t. their information content (hierarchical regime), while, for strong dilution, all the signals pertaining to all the patterns are raised with the same strength (parallel regime). Further, confined to the low-storage setting (i.e., far from the spin glass limit), the presence of a teacher neither alters the multitasking performances nor changes the thresholds for learning: the latter are the same whatever the training protocol is supervised or unsupervised. Results obtained through statistical mechanics, signal-to-noise technique and Monte Carlo simulations are overall in perfect agreement and carry interesting insights on multiple learning at once: for instance, whenever the cost-function of the model is minimized in parallel on several patterns (in its description via Statistical Mechanics), the same happens to the standard sum-squared error Loss function (typically used in Machine Learning).

Learning causal graphs from multivariate time series is a ubiquitous challenge in all application domains dealing with time-dependent systems, such as in Earth sciences, biology, or engineering, to name a few. Recent developments for this causal discovery learning task have shown considerable skill, notably the specific time-series adaptations of the popular conditional independence-based learning framework. However, uncertainty estimation is challenging for conditional independence-based methods. Here, we introduce a novel bootstrap approach designed for time series causal discovery that preserves the temporal dependencies and lag structure. It can be combined with a range of time series causal discovery methods and provides a measure of confidence for the links of the time series graphs. Furthermore, next to confidence estimation, an aggregation, also called bagging, of the bootstrapped graphs by majority voting results in bagged causal discovery methods. In this work, we combine this approach with the state-of-the-art conditional-independence-based algorithm PCMCI+. With extensive numerical experiments we empirically demonstrate that, in addition to providing confidence measures for links, Bagged-PCMCI+ improves in precision and recall as compared to its base algorithm PCMCI+, at the cost of higher computational demands. These statistical performance improvements are especially pronounced in the more challenging settings (short time sample size, large number of variables, high autocorrelation). Our bootstrap approach can also be combined with other time series causal discovery algorithms and can be of considerable use in many real-world applications.

Clustering aims to group unlabelled samples based on their similarities. It has become a significant tool for the analysis of high-dimensional data. However, most of the clustering methods merely generate pseudo labels and thus are unable to simultaneously present the similarities between different clusters and outliers. This paper proposes a new framework called High-dimensional Clustering onto Hamiltonian Cycle (HCHC) to solve the above problems. First, HCHC combines global structure with local structure in one objective function for deep clustering, improving the labels as relative probabilities, to mine the similarities between different clusters while keeping the local structure in each cluster. Then, the anchors of different clusters are sorted on the optimal Hamiltonian cycle generated by the cluster similarities and mapped on the circumference of a circle. Finally, a sample with a higher probability of a cluster will be mapped closer to the corresponding anchor. In this way, our framework allows us to appreciate three aspects visually and simultaneously - clusters (formed by samples with high probabilities), cluster similarities (represented as circular distances), and outliers (recognized as dots far away from all clusters). The experiments illustrate the superiority of HCHC.

Inspired by the fact that the neural network, as the mainstream for machine learning, has brought successes in many application areas, here we propose to use this approach for decoding hidden correlation among pseudo-random data and predicting events accordingly. With a simple neural network structure and a typical training procedure, we demonstrate the learning and prediction power of the neural network in extremely random environment. Finally, we postulate that the high sensitivity and efficiency of the neural network may allow to critically test if there could be any fundamental difference between quantum randomness and pseudo randomness, which is equivalent to the question: Does God play dice?

The Shapley value is one of the most widely used measures of feature importance partly as it measures a feature's average effect on a model's prediction. We introduce joint Shapley values, which directly extend Shapley's axioms and intuitions: joint Shapley values measure a set of features' average contribution to a model's prediction. We prove the uniqueness of joint Shapley values, for any order of explanation. Results for games show that joint Shapley values present different insights from existing interaction indices, which assess the effect of a feature within a set of features. The joint Shapley values provide intuitive results in ML attribution problems. With binary features, we present a presence-adjusted global value that is more consistent with local intuitions than the usual approach.

We propose a new approach for propagating stable probability distributions through neural networks. Our method is based on local linearization, which we show to be an optimal approximation in terms of total variation distance for the ReLU non-linearity. This allows propagating Gaussian and Cauchy input uncertainties through neural networks to quantify their output uncertainties. To demonstrate the utility of propagating distributions, we apply the proposed method to predicting calibrated confidence intervals and selective prediction on out-of-distribution data. The results demonstrate a broad applicability of propagating distributions and show the advantages of our method over other approaches such as moment matching.

This paper concerns a long-range random walk in random environment in dimension 1+1, where the environmental disorder is independent in space but has long-range correlations in time. We prove that two types of rescaled partition functions converge weakly to the Stratonovich solution and the It\^o-Skorohod solution respectively of a fractional stochastic heat equation with multiplicative Gaussian noise which is white in space and colored in time.

Weighted graphs are ubiquitous throughout biology, chemistry, and the social sciences, motivating the development of generative models for abstract weighted graph data using deep neural networks. However, most current deep generative models are either designed for unweighted graphs and are not easily extended to weighted topologies or incorporate edge weights without consideration of a joint distribution with topology. Furthermore, learning a distribution over weighted graphs must account for complex nonlocal dependencies between both the edges of the graph and corresponding weights of each edge. We develop an autoregressive model BiGG-E, a nontrivial extension of the BiGG model, that learns a joint distribution over weighted graphs while still exploiting sparsity to generate a weighted graph with n nodes and m edges in O((n + m)log n) time. Simulation studies and experiments on a variety of benchmark datasets demonstrate that BiGG-E best captures distributions over weighted graphs while remaining scalable and computationally efficient.

The last decade has seen a marked shift in how the internal structure of hadrons is understood. Modern experimental facilities, new theoretical techniques for the continuum bound-state problem and progress with lattice-regularised QCD have provided strong indications that soft quark+quark (diquark) correlations play a crucial role in hadron physics. For example, theory indicates that the appearance of such correlations is a necessary consequence of dynamical chiral symmetry breaking, viz. a corollary of emergent hadronic mass that is responsible for almost all visible mass in the universe; experiment has uncovered signals for such correlations in the flavour-separation of the proton's electromagnetic form factors; and phenomenology suggests that diquark correlations might be critical to the formation of exotic tetra- and penta-quark hadrons. A broad spectrum of such information is evaluated herein, with a view to consolidating the facts and therefrom moving toward a coherent, unified picture of hadron structure and the role that diquark correlations might play.

Pre-trained models have revolutionized natural language understanding. However, researchers have found they can encode artifacts undesired in many applications, such as professions correlating with one gender more than another. We explore such gendered correlations as a case study for how to address unintended correlations in pre-trained models. We define metrics and reveal that it is possible for models with similar accuracy to encode correlations at very different rates. We show how measured correlations can be reduced with general-purpose techniques, and highlight the trade offs different strategies have. With these results, we make recommendations for training robust models: (1) carefully evaluate unintended correlations, (2) be mindful of seemingly innocuous configuration differences, and (3) focus on general mitigations.

Correlation does not imply causation, but patterns of statistical association between variables can be exploited to infer a causal structure (even with purely observational data) with the burgeoning field of causal discovery. As a purely observational science, astrophysics has much to gain by exploiting these new methods. The supermassive black hole (SMBH)--galaxy interaction has long been constrained by observed scaling relations, that is low-scatter correlations between variables such as SMBH mass and the central velocity dispersion of stars in a host galaxy's bulge. This study, using advanced causal discovery techniques and an up-to-date dataset, reveals a causal link between galaxy properties and dynamically-measured SMBH masses. We apply a score-based Bayesian framework to compute the exact conditional probabilities of every causal structure that could possibly describe our galaxy sample. With the exact posterior distribution, we determine the most likely causal structures and notice a probable causal reversal when separating galaxies by morphology. In elliptical galaxies, bulge properties (built from major mergers) tend to influence SMBH growth, while in spiral galaxies, SMBHs are seen to affect host galaxy properties, potentially through feedback in gas-rich environments. For spiral galaxies, SMBHs progressively quench star formation, whereas in elliptical galaxies, quenching is complete, and the causal connection has reversed. Our findings support theoretical models of hierarchical assembly of galaxies and active galactic nuclei feedback regulating galaxy evolution. Our study suggests the potentiality for further exploration of causal links in astrophysical and cosmological scaling relations, as well as any other observational science.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Predicting the dependencies between observations from multiple time series is critical for applications such as anomaly detection, financial risk management, causal analysis, or demand forecasting. However, the computational and numerical difficulties of estimating time-varying and high-dimensional covariance matrices often limits existing methods to handling at most a few hundred dimensions or requires making strong assumptions on the dependence between series. We propose to combine an RNN-based time series model with a Gaussian copula process output model with a low-rank covariance structure to reduce the computational complexity and handle non-Gaussian marginal distributions. This permits to drastically reduce the number of parameters and consequently allows the modeling of time-varying correlations of thousands of time series. We show on several real-world datasets that our method provides significant accuracy improvements over state-of-the-art baselines and perform an ablation study analyzing the contributions of the different components of our model.

Both convolutional and recurrent operations are building blocks that process one local neighborhood at a time. In this paper, we present non-local operations as a generic family of building blocks for capturing long-range dependencies. Inspired by the classical non-local means method in computer vision, our non-local operation computes the response at a position as a weighted sum of the features at all positions. This building block can be plugged into many computer vision architectures. On the task of video classification, even without any bells and whistles, our non-local models can compete or outperform current competition winners on both Kinetics and Charades datasets. In static image recognition, our non-local models improve object detection/segmentation and pose estimation on the COCO suite of tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/video-nonlocal-net .

Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest shift/imbalance in covariates (i.e., secondary non-imaging data). Controlling for such nuisance variables is common within standard statistical analysis, but the ideas do not directly apply to overparameterized models. Consequently, recent work has shown how strategies from invariant representation learning provides a meaningful starting point, but the current repertoire of methods is limited to accounting for shifts/imbalances in just a couple of covariates at a time. In this paper, we show how viewing this problem from the perspective of Category theory provides a simple and effective solution that completely avoids elaborate multi-stage training pipelines that would otherwise be needed. We show the effectiveness of this approach via extensive experiments on real datasets. Further, we discuss how this style of formulation offers a unified perspective on at least 5+ distinct problem settings, from self-supervised learning to matching problems in 3D reconstruction.

An industrial process includes many devices, variables, and sub-processes that are physically or electronically interconnected. These interconnections imply some level of correlation between different process variables. Since most of the alarms in a process plant are defined on process variables, alarms are also correlated. However, this can be a nuisance to operators, for one fault might trigger a, sometimes large, number of alarms. So, it is essential to find and correct correlated alarms. In this paper, we study different methods and techniques proposed to measure correlation or similarity between alarms. The similarity indices are first analytically calculated and then studied and compared. The results are also validated using Monte-Carlo simulation.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

Vision Transformers achieved outstanding performance in many computer vision tasks. Early Vision Transformers such as ViT and DeiT adopt global self-attention, which is computationally expensive when the number of patches is large. To improve efficiency, recent Vision Transformers adopt local self-attention mechanisms, where self-attention is computed within local windows. Despite the fact that window-based local self-attention significantly boosts efficiency, it fails to capture the relationships between distant but similar patches in the image plane. To overcome this limitation of image-space local attention, in this paper, we further exploit the locality of patches in the feature space. We group the patches into multiple clusters using their features, and self-attention is computed within every cluster. Such feature-space local attention effectively captures the connections between patches across different local windows but still relevant. We propose a Bilateral lOcal Attention vision Transformer (BOAT), which integrates feature-space local attention with image-space local attention. We further integrate BOAT with both Swin and CSWin models, and extensive experiments on several benchmark datasets demonstrate that our BOAT-CSWin model clearly and consistently outperforms existing state-of-the-art CNN models and vision Transformers.

Long-range dependencies are critical for effective graph representation learning, yet most existing datasets focus on small graphs tailored to inductive tasks, offering limited insight into long-range interactions. Current evaluations primarily compare models employing global attention (e.g., graph transformers) with those using local neighborhood aggregation (e.g., message-passing neural networks) without a direct measurement of long-range dependency. In this work, we introduce City-Networks, a novel large-scale transductive learning dataset derived from real-world city roads. This dataset features graphs with over 10^5 nodes and significantly larger diameters than those in existing benchmarks, naturally embodying long-range information. We annotate the graphs using an eccentricity-based approach, ensuring that the classification task inherently requires information from distant nodes. Furthermore, we propose a model-agnostic measurement based on the Jacobians of neighbors from distant hops, offering a principled quantification of long-range dependencies. Finally, we provide theoretical justifications for both our dataset design and the proposed measurement - particularly by focusing on over-smoothing and influence score dilution - which establishes a robust foundation for further exploration of long-range interactions in graph neural networks.

Machine learning systems are known to be sensitive to spurious correlations between biased features of the inputs (e.g., background, texture, and secondary objects) and the corresponding labels. These features and their correlations with the labels are known as "spurious" because they tend to change with shifts in real-world data distributions, which can negatively impact the model's generalization and robustness. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of this issue, along with a taxonomy of current state-of-the-art methods for addressing spurious correlations in machine learning models. Additionally, we summarize existing datasets, benchmarks, and metrics to aid future research. The paper concludes with a discussion of the recent advancements and future research challenges in this field, aiming to provide valuable insights for researchers in the related domains.

Federated Learning (FL) is a way for machines to learn from data that is kept locally, in order to protect the privacy of clients. This is typically done using local SGD, which helps to improve communication efficiency. However, such a scheme is currently constrained by slow and unstable convergence due to the variety of data on different clients' devices. In this work, we identify three under-explored phenomena of biased local learning that may explain these challenges caused by local updates in supervised FL. As a remedy, we propose FedBR, a novel unified algorithm that reduces the local learning bias on features and classifiers to tackle these challenges. FedBR has two components. The first component helps to reduce bias in local classifiers by balancing the output of the models. The second component helps to learn local features that are similar to global features, but different from those learned from other data sources. We conducted several experiments to test \algopt and found that it consistently outperforms other SOTA FL methods. Both of its components also individually show performance gains. Our code is available at https://github.com/lins-lab/fedbr.

Visual autoregressive models typically adhere to a raster-order ``next-token prediction" paradigm, which overlooks the spatial and temporal locality inherent in visual content. Specifically, visual tokens exhibit significantly stronger correlations with their spatially or temporally adjacent tokens compared to those that are distant. In this paper, we propose Neighboring Autoregressive Modeling (NAR), a novel paradigm that formulates autoregressive visual generation as a progressive outpainting procedure, following a near-to-far ``next-neighbor prediction" mechanism. Starting from an initial token, the remaining tokens are decoded in ascending order of their Manhattan distance from the initial token in the spatial-temporal space, progressively expanding the boundary of the decoded region. To enable parallel prediction of multiple adjacent tokens in the spatial-temporal space, we introduce a set of dimension-oriented decoding heads, each predicting the next token along a mutually orthogonal dimension. During inference, all tokens adjacent to the decoded tokens are processed in parallel, substantially reducing the model forward steps for generation. Experiments on ImageNet256times 256 and UCF101 demonstrate that NAR achieves 2.4times and 8.6times higher throughput respectively, while obtaining superior FID/FVD scores for both image and video generation tasks compared to the PAR-4X approach. When evaluating on text-to-image generation benchmark GenEval, NAR with 0.8B parameters outperforms Chameleon-7B while using merely 0.4 of the training data. Code is available at https://github.com/ThisisBillhe/NAR.

The generalization of language models (LMs) is undergoing active debates, contrasting their potential for general intelligence with their struggles with basic knowledge composition (e.g., reverse/transition curse). This paper uncovers the phenomenon of linear correlations in LMs during knowledge composition. For explanation, there exists a linear transformation between certain related knowledge that maps the next token prediction logits from one prompt to another, e.g., "X lives in the city of" rightarrow "X lives in the country of" for every given X. This mirrors the linearity in human knowledge composition, such as Paris rightarrow France. Our findings indicate that the linear transformation is resilient to large-scale fine-tuning, generalizing updated knowledge when aligned with real-world relationships, but causing hallucinations when it deviates. Empirical results suggest that linear correlation can serve as a potential identifier of LM's generalization. Finally, we show such linear correlations can be learned with a single feedforward network and pre-trained vocabulary representations, indicating LM generalization heavily relies on the latter.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

We consider a number of graph kernels and proximity measures including commute time kernel, regularized Laplacian kernel, heat kernel, exponential diffusion kernel (also called "communicability"), etc., and the corresponding distances as applied to clustering nodes in random graphs and several well-known datasets. The model of generating random graphs involves edge probabilities for the pairs of nodes that belong to the same class or different predefined classes of nodes. It turns out that in most cases, logarithmic measures (i.e., measures resulting after taking logarithm of the proximities) perform better while distinguishing underlying classes than the "plain" measures. A comparison in terms of reject curves of inter-class and intra-class distances confirms this conclusion. A similar conclusion can be made for several well-known datasets. A possible origin of this effect is that most kernels have a multiplicative nature, while the nature of distances used in cluster algorithms is an additive one (cf. the triangle inequality). The logarithmic transformation is a tool to transform the first nature to the second one. Moreover, some distances corresponding to the logarithmic measures possess a meaningful cutpoint additivity property. In our experiments, the leader is usually the logarithmic Communicability measure. However, we indicate some more complicated cases in which other measures, typically, Communicability and plain Walk, can be the winners.

We propose a graph clustering formulation based on multicut (a.k.a. weighted correlation clustering) on the complete graph. Our formulation does not need specification of the graph topology as in the original sparse formulation of multicut, making our approach simpler and potentially better performing. In contrast to unweighted correlation clustering we allow for a more expressive weighted cost structure. In dense multicut, the clustering objective is given in a factorized form as inner products of node feature vectors. This allows for an efficient formulation and inference in contrast to multicut/weighted correlation clustering, which has at least quadratic representation and computation complexity when working on the complete graph. We show how to rewrite classical greedy algorithms for multicut in our dense setting and how to modify them for greater efficiency and solution quality. In particular, our algorithms scale to graphs with tens of thousands of nodes. Empirical evidence on instance segmentation on Cityscapes and clustering of ImageNet datasets shows the merits of our approach.

A comparison of the distances to the Huanan Seafood Market of early Covid cases with known links to the market versus cases without known links shows results apparently incompatible with a location model lacking proximity ascertainment bias. The sign of the difference instead agrees with a model in which such ascertainment bias is large. In the presence of such bias inferences based on the clustering of case locations become unreliable.

We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models. The approximation involves discarding, in a principled way, likelihood factors according to a notion of locality in a factor graph associated with the emission distribution. This allows the exponential-in-dimension cost of exact filtering and smoothing to be avoided. We prove that the approximation accuracy, measured in a local total variation norm, is "dimension-free" in the sense that as the overall dimension of the model increases the error bounds we derive do not necessarily degrade. A key step in the analysis is to quantify the error introduced by localizing the likelihood function in a Bayes' rule update. The factorial structure of the likelihood function which we exploit arises naturally when data have known spatial or network structure. We demonstrate the new algorithms on synthetic examples and a London Underground passenger flow problem, where the factor graph is effectively given by the train network.

A directed acyclic graph (DAG) provides valuable prior knowledge that is often discarded in regression tasks in machine learning. We show that the independences arising from the presence of collider structures in DAGs provide meaningful inductive biases, which constrain the regression hypothesis space and improve predictive performance. We introduce collider regression, a framework to incorporate probabilistic causal knowledge from a collider in a regression problem. When the hypothesis space is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we prove a strictly positive generalisation benefit under mild assumptions and provide closed-form estimators of the empirical risk minimiser. Experiments on synthetic and climate model data demonstrate performance gains of the proposed methodology.

Recent advancements in state space models, notably Mamba, have demonstrated significant progress in modeling long sequences for tasks like language understanding. Yet, their application in vision tasks has not markedly surpassed the performance of traditional Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Vision Transformers (ViTs). This paper posits that the key to enhancing Vision Mamba (ViM) lies in optimizing scan directions for sequence modeling. Traditional ViM approaches, which flatten spatial tokens, overlook the preservation of local 2D dependencies, thereby elongating the distance between adjacent tokens. We introduce a novel local scanning strategy that divides images into distinct windows, effectively capturing local dependencies while maintaining a global perspective. Additionally, acknowledging the varying preferences for scan patterns across different network layers, we propose a dynamic method to independently search for the optimal scan choices for each layer, substantially improving performance. Extensive experiments across both plain and hierarchical models underscore our approach's superiority in effectively capturing image representations. For example, our model significantly outperforms Vim-Ti by 3.1% on ImageNet with the same 1.5G FLOPs. Code is available at: https://github.com/hunto/LocalMamba.

We explore a generative machine learning-based approach for estimating multi-dimensional probability density functions (PDFs) in a target sample using a statistically independent but related control sample - a common challenge in particle physics data analysis. The generative model must accurately reproduce individual observable distributions while preserving the correlations between them, based on the input multidimensional distribution from the control sample. Here we present a conditional normalizing flow model (CNF) based on a chain of bijectors which learns to transform unpaired simulation events to data events. We assess the performance of the CNF model in the context of LHC Higgs to diphoton analysis, where we use the CNF model to convert a Monte Carlo diphoton sample to one that models data. We show that the CNF model can accurately model complex data distributions and correlations. We also leverage the recently popularized Modified Differential Multiplier Method (MDMM) to improve the convergence of our model and assign physical meaning to usually arbitrary loss-function parameters.

We study the approximability of an existing framework for clustering edge-colored hypergraphs, which is closely related to chromatic correlation clustering and is motivated by machine learning and data mining applications where the goal is to cluster a set of objects based on multiway interactions of different categories or types. We present improved approximation guarantees based on linear programming, and show they are tight by proving a matching integrality gap. Our results also include new approximation hardness results, a combinatorial 2-approximation whose runtime is linear in the hypergraph size, and several new connections to well-studied objectives such as vertex cover and hypergraph multiway cut.

Training deep neural networks (DNNs) using traditional backpropagation (BP) presents challenges in terms of computational complexity and energy consumption, particularly for on-device learning where computational resources are limited. Various alternatives to BP, including random feedback alignment, forward-forward, and local classifiers, have been explored to address these challenges. These methods have their advantages, but they can encounter difficulties when dealing with intricate visual tasks or demand considerable computational resources. In this paper, we propose a novel Local Learning rule inspired by neural activity Synchronization phenomena (LLS) observed in the brain. LLS utilizes fixed periodic basis vectors to synchronize neuron activity within each layer, enabling efficient training without the need for additional trainable parameters. We demonstrate the effectiveness of LLS and its variations, LLS-M and LLS-MxM, on multiple image classification datasets, achieving accuracy comparable to BP with reduced computational complexity and minimal additional parameters. Furthermore, the performance of LLS on the Visual Wake Word (VWW) dataset highlights its suitability for on-device learning tasks, making it a promising candidate for edge hardware implementations.

We decompose the evidence lower bound to show the existence of a term measuring the total correlation between latent variables. We use this to motivate our beta-TCVAE (Total Correlation Variational Autoencoder), a refinement of the state-of-the-art beta-VAE objective for learning disentangled representations, requiring no additional hyperparameters during training. We further propose a principled classifier-free measure of disentanglement called the mutual information gap (MIG). We perform extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments, in both restricted and non-restricted settings, and show a strong relation between total correlation and disentanglement, when the latent variables model is trained using our framework.

A variety of recent papers discuss the application of Shapley values, a concept for explaining coalitional games, for feature attribution in machine learning. However, the correct way to connect a machine learning model to a coalitional game has been a source of controversy. The two main approaches that have been proposed differ in the way that they condition on known features, using either (1) an interventional or (2) an observational conditional expectation. While previous work has argued that one of the two approaches is preferable in general, we argue that the choice is application dependent. Furthermore, we argue that the choice comes down to whether it is desirable to be true to the model or true to the data. We use linear models to investigate this choice. After deriving an efficient method for calculating observational conditional expectation Shapley values for linear models, we investigate how correlation in simulated data impacts the convergence of observational conditional expectation Shapley values. Finally, we present two real data examples that we consider to be representative of possible use cases for feature attribution -- (1) credit risk modeling and (2) biological discovery. We show how a different choice of value function performs better in each scenario, and how possible attributions are impacted by modeling choices.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) show promising results for graph tasks. However, existing GNNs' generalization ability will degrade when there exist distribution shifts between testing and training graph data. The cardinal impetus underlying the severe degeneration is that the GNNs are architected predicated upon the I.I.D assumptions. In such a setting, GNNs are inclined to leverage imperceptible statistical correlations subsisting in the training set to predict, albeit it is a spurious correlation. In this paper, we study the problem of the generalization ability of GNNs in Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) settings. To solve this problem, we propose the Learning to Reweight for Generalizable Graph Neural Network (L2R-GNN) to enhance the generalization ability for achieving satisfactory performance on unseen testing graphs that have different distributions with training graphs. We propose a novel nonlinear graph decorrelation method, which can substantially improve the out-of-distribution generalization ability and compares favorably to previous methods in restraining the over-reduced sample size. The variables of the graph representation are clustered based on the stability of the correlation, and the graph decorrelation method learns weights to remove correlations between the variables of different clusters rather than any two variables. Besides, we interpose an efficacious stochastic algorithm upon bi-level optimization for the L2R-GNN framework, which facilitates simultaneously learning the optimal weights and GNN parameters, and avoids the overfitting problem. Experimental results show that L2R-GNN greatly outperforms baselines on various graph prediction benchmarks under distribution shifts.

Humans recognize anomalies through two aspects: larger patch-wise representation discrepancies and weaker patch-to-normal-patch correlations. However, the previous AD methods didn't sufficiently combine the two complementary aspects to design AD models. To this end, we find that Transformer can ideally satisfy the two aspects as its great power in the unified modeling of patch-wise representations and patch-to-patch correlations. In this paper, we propose a novel AD framework: FOcus-the-Discrepancy (FOD), which can simultaneously spot the patch-wise, intra- and inter-discrepancies of anomalies. The major characteristic of our method is that we renovate the self-attention maps in transformers to Intra-Inter-Correlation (I2Correlation). The I2Correlation contains a two-branch structure to first explicitly establish intra- and inter-image correlations, and then fuses the features of two-branch to spotlight the abnormal patterns. To learn the intra- and inter-correlations adaptively, we propose the RBF-kernel-based target-correlations as learning targets for self-supervised learning. Besides, we introduce an entropy constraint strategy to solve the mode collapse issue in optimization and further amplify the normal-abnormal distinguishability. Extensive experiments on three unsupervised real-world AD benchmarks show the superior performance of our approach. Code will be available at https://github.com/xcyao00/FOD.

Multivariate time series is prevalent in many scientific and industrial domains. Modeling multivariate signals is challenging due to their long-range temporal dependencies and intricate interactions--both direct and indirect. To confront these complexities, we introduce a method of representing multivariate signals as nodes in a graph with edges indicating interdependency between them. Specifically, we leverage graph neural networks (GNN) and attention mechanisms to efficiently learn the underlying relationships within the time series data. Moreover, we suggest employing hierarchical signal decompositions running over the graphs to capture multiple spatial dependencies. The effectiveness of our proposed model is evaluated across various real-world benchmark datasets designed for long-term forecasting tasks. The results consistently showcase the superiority of our model, achieving an average 23\% reduction in mean squared error (MSE) compared to existing models.

Neural architectures that learn potential energy surfaces from molecular data have undergone fast improvement in recent years. A key driver of this success is the Message Passing Neural Network (MPNN) paradigm. Its favorable scaling with system size partly relies upon a spatial distance limit on messages. While this focus on locality is a useful inductive bias, it also impedes the learning of long-range interactions such as electrostatics and van der Waals forces. To address this drawback, we propose Ewald message passing: a nonlocal Fourier space scheme which limits interactions via a cutoff on frequency instead of distance, and is theoretically well-founded in the Ewald summation method. It can serve as an augmentation on top of existing MPNN architectures as it is computationally inexpensive and agnostic to architectural details. We test the approach with four baseline models and two datasets containing diverse periodic (OC20) and aperiodic structures (OE62). We observe robust improvements in energy mean absolute errors across all models and datasets, averaging 10% on OC20 and 16% on OE62. Our analysis shows an outsize impact of these improvements on structures with high long-range contributions to the ground truth energy.

We present a novel method for solving Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in a sparse convex framework using a least squares approach. The presented method focuses on the scenario when one is interested in (or limited to) a primal representation for the first view while having a dual representation for the second view. Sparse CCA (SCCA) minimises the number of features used in both the primal and dual projections while maximising the correlation between the two views. The method is demonstrated on two paired corpuses of English-French and English-Spanish for mate-retrieval. We are able to observe, in the mate-retreival, that when the number of the original features is large SCCA outperforms Kernel CCA (KCCA), learning the common semantic space from a sparse set of features.

We show that there is a general, informative and reliable procedure for discovering causal relations when, for all the investigator knows, both latent variables and selection bias may be at work. Given information about conditional independence and dependence relations between measured variables, even when latent variables and selection bias may be present, there are sufficient conditions for reliably concluding that there is a causal path from one variable to another, and sufficient conditions for reliably concluding when no such causal path exists.

We compare the (1,lambda)-EA and the (1 + lambda)-EA on the recently introduced benchmark DisOM, which is the OneMax function with randomly planted local optima. Previous work showed that if all local optima have the same relative height, then the plus strategy never loses more than a factor O(nlog n) compared to the comma strategy. Here we show that even small random fluctuations in the heights of the local optima have a devastating effect for the plus strategy and lead to super-polynomial runtimes. On the other hand, due to their ability to escape local optima, comma strategies are unaffected by the height of the local optima and remain efficient. Our results hold for a broad class of possible distortions and show that the plus strategy, but not the comma strategy, is generally deceived by sparse unstructured fluctuations of a smooth landscape.

Strong correlation brings a rich array of emergent phenomena, as well as a daunting challenge to theoretical physics study. In condensed matter physics, the fractional quantum Hall effect is a prominent example of strong correlation, with Landau level mixing being one of the most challenging aspects to address using traditional computational methods. Deep learning real-space neural network wavefunction methods have emerged as promising architectures to describe electron correlations in molecules and materials, but their power has not been fully tested for exotic quantum states. In this work, we employ real-space neural network wavefunction techniques to investigate fractional quantum Hall systems. On both 1/3 and 2/5 filling systems, we achieve energies consistently lower than exact diagonalization results which only consider the lowest Landau level. We also demonstrate that the real-space neural network wavefunction can naturally capture the extent of Landau level mixing up to a very high level, overcoming the limitations of traditional methods. Our work underscores the potential of neural networks for future studies of strongly correlated systems and opens new avenues for exploring the rich physics of the fractional quantum Hall effect.

We propose a novel machine learning approach for inferring causal variables of a target variable from observations. Our focus is on directly inferring a set of causal factors without requiring full causal graph reconstruction, which is computationally challenging in large-scale systems. The identified causal set consists of all potential regulators of the target variable under experimental settings, enabling efficient regulation when intervention costs and feasibility vary across variables. To achieve this, we train a neural network using supervised learning on simulated data to infer causality. By employing a local-inference strategy, our approach scales with linear complexity in the number of variables, efficiently scaling up to thousands of variables. Empirical results demonstrate superior performance in identifying causal relationships within large-scale gene regulatory networks, outperforming existing methods that emphasize full-graph discovery. We validate our model's generalization capability across out-of-distribution graph structures and generating mechanisms, including gene regulatory networks of E. coli and the human K562 cell line. Implementation codes are available at https://github.com/snu-mllab/Targeted-Cause-Discovery.

We study the scaling properties of avalanche activity in the two-dimensional Abelian sandpile model. Instead of the conventional avalanche size distribution, we analyze the site activity distribution, which measures how often a site participates in avalanches when grains are added across the lattice. Using numerical simulations for system sizes up to \(L = 160\), averaged over \(10^4\) configurations, we determine the probability distribution \(P(A, L)\) of site activities. The results show that \(P(A, L)\) follows a finite-size scaling form \[ P(A, L) \sim L^{-2} F\Big(A{L^2}\Big). \] For small values \(A \ll L^2\) the scaling function behaves as \[ F(u) \sim u^{-1/2}, \quad corresponding to \quad P(A) \sim 1{L}, \] while for large activities \(A \sim O(L^2)\) the distribution decays as \[ F(u) \sim \exp\big(-c_3 u - c_4 u^2\big). \] The crossover between these two regimes occurs at \[ A^* \sim 0.1 \, L^2, \] marking the threshold between typical and highly excitable sites. This characterization of local avalanche activity provides complementary information to the usual avalanche size statistics, highlighting how local regions serve as frequent conduits for critical dynamics. These results may help connect sandpile models to real-world self-organized critical systems where only partial local activity can be observed.

In this paper, we have studied the performance and role of local optimizers in quantum variational circuits. We studied the performance of the two most popular optimizers and compared their results with some popular classical machine learning algorithms. The classical algorithms we used in our study are support vector machine (SVM), gradient boosting (GB), and random forest (RF). These were compared with a variational quantum classifier (VQC) using two sets of local optimizers viz AQGD and COBYLA. For experimenting with VQC, IBM Quantum Experience and IBM Qiskit was used while for classical machine learning models, sci-kit learn was used. The results show that machine learning on noisy immediate scale quantum machines can produce comparable results as on classical machines. For our experiments, we have used a popular restaurant sentiment analysis dataset. The extracted features from this dataset and then after applying PCA reduced the feature set into 5 features. Quantum ML models were trained using 100 epochs and 150 epochs on using EfficientSU2 variational circuit. Overall, four Quantum ML models were trained and three Classical ML models were trained. The performance of the trained models was evaluated using standard evaluation measures viz, Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F-Score. In all the cases AQGD optimizer-based model with 100 Epochs performed better than all other models. It produced an accuracy of 77% and an F-Score of 0.785 which were highest across all the trained models.

The recent CLIP-based methods have shown promising zero-shot and few-shot performance on image classification tasks. Existing approaches such as CoOp and Tip-Adapter only focus on high-level visual features that are fully aligned with textual features representing the ``Summary" of the image. However, the goal of few-shot learning is to classify unseen images of the same category with few labeled samples. Especially, in contrast to high-level representations, local representations (LRs) at low-level are more consistent between seen and unseen samples. Based on this point, we propose the Meta-Feature Adaption method (MF-Adapter) that combines the complementary strengths of both LRs and high-level semantic representations. Specifically, we introduce the Meta-Feature Unit (MF-Unit), which is a simple yet effective local similarity metric to measure category-consistent local context in an inductive manner. Then we train an MF-Adapter to map image features to MF-Unit for adequately generalizing the intra-class knowledge between unseen images and the support set. Extensive experiments show that our proposed method is superior to the state-of-the-art CLIP downstream few-shot classification methods, even showing stronger performance on a set of challenging visual classification tasks.

The analysis of scientific data and complex multivariate systems requires information quantities that capture relationships among multiple random variables. Recently, new information-theoretic measures have been developed to overcome the shortcomings of classical ones, such as mutual information, that are restricted to considering pairwise interactions. Among them, the concept of information synergy and redundancy is crucial for understanding the high-order dependencies between variables. One of the most prominent and versatile measures based on this concept is O-information, which provides a clear and scalable way to quantify the synergy-redundancy balance in multivariate systems. However, its practical application is limited to simplified cases. In this work, we introduce SOmegaI, which allows for the first time to compute O-information without restrictive assumptions about the system. Our experiments validate our approach on synthetic data, and demonstrate the effectiveness of SOmegaI in the context of a real-world use case.

Image similarity metrics play an important role in computer vision applications, as they are used in image processing, computer vision and machine learning. Furthermore, those metrics enable tasks such as image retrieval, object recognition and quality assessment, essential in fields like healthcare, astronomy and surveillance. Existing metrics, such as PSNR, MSE, SSIM, ISSM and FSIM, often face limitations in terms of either speed, complexity or sensitivity to small changes in images. To address these challenges, a novel image similarity metric, namely CSIM, that combines real-time while being sensitive to subtle image variations is investigated in this paper. The novel metric uses Gaussian Copula from probability theory to transform an image into vectors of pixel distribution associated to local image patches. These vectors contain, in addition to intensities and pixel positions, information on the dependencies between pixel values, capturing the structural relationships within the image. By leveraging the properties of Copulas, CSIM effectively models the joint distribution of pixel intensities, enabling a more nuanced comparison of image patches making it more sensitive to local changes compared to other metrics. Experimental results demonstrate that CSIM outperforms existing similarity metrics in various image distortion scenarios, including noise, compression artifacts and blur. The metric's ability to detect subtle differences makes it suitable for applications requiring high precision, such as medical imaging, where the detection of minor anomalies can be of a high importance. The results obtained in this work can be reproduced from this Github repository: https://github.com/safouaneelg/copulasimilarity.

Exploiting spatial-angular correlation is crucial to light field (LF) image super-resolution (SR), but is highly challenging due to its non-local property caused by the disparities among LF images. Although many deep neural networks (DNNs) have been developed for LF image SR and achieved continuously improved performance, existing methods cannot well leverage the long-range spatial-angular correlation and thus suffer a significant performance drop when handling scenes with large disparity variations. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective method to learn the non-local spatial-angular correlation for LF image SR. In our method, we adopt the epipolar plane image (EPI) representation to project the 4D spatial-angular correlation onto multiple 2D EPI planes, and then develop a Transformer network with repetitive self-attention operations to learn the spatial-angular correlation by modeling the dependencies between each pair of EPI pixels. Our method can fully incorporate the information from all angular views while achieving a global receptive field along the epipolar line. We conduct extensive experiments with insightful visualizations to validate the effectiveness of our method. Comparative results on five public datasets show that our method not only achieves state-of-the-art SR performance, but also performs robust to disparity variations. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/ZhengyuLiang24/EPIT.

We develop a method for generating causal post-hoc explanations of black-box classifiers based on a learned low-dimensional representation of the data. The explanation is causal in the sense that changing learned latent factors produces a change in the classifier output statistics. To construct these explanations, we design a learning framework that leverages a generative model and information-theoretic measures of causal influence. Our objective function encourages both the generative model to faithfully represent the data distribution and the latent factors to have a large causal influence on the classifier output. Our method learns both global and local explanations, is compatible with any classifier that admits class probabilities and a gradient, and does not require labeled attributes or knowledge of causal structure. Using carefully controlled test cases, we provide intuition that illuminates the function of our objective. We then demonstrate the practical utility of our method on image recognition tasks.

When two different parties use the same learning rule on their own data, how can we test whether the distributions of the two outcomes are similar? In this paper, we study the similarity of outcomes of learning rules through the lens of the Total Variation (TV) distance of distributions. We say that a learning rule is TV indistinguishable if the expected TV distance between the posterior distributions of its outputs, executed on two training data sets drawn independently from the same distribution, is small. We first investigate the learnability of hypothesis classes using TV indistinguishable learners. Our main results are information-theoretic equivalences between TV indistinguishability and existing algorithmic stability notions such as replicability and approximate differential privacy. Then, we provide statistical amplification and boosting algorithms for TV indistinguishable learners.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

Several studies have compared the in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of models in computer vision and NLP. They report a frequent positive correlation and some surprisingly never even observe an inverse correlation indicative of a necessary trade-off. The possibility of inverse patterns is important to determine whether ID performance can serve as a proxy for OOD generalization capabilities. This paper shows with multiple datasets that inverse correlations between ID and OOD performance do happen in real-world data - not only in theoretical worst-case settings. We also explain theoretically how these cases can arise even in a minimal linear setting, and why past studies could miss such cases due to a biased selection of models. Our observations lead to recommendations that contradict those found in much of the current literature. - High OOD performance sometimes requires trading off ID performance. - Focusing on ID performance alone may not lead to optimal OOD performance. It may produce diminishing (eventually negative) returns in OOD performance. - In these cases, studies on OOD generalization that use ID performance for model selection (a common recommended practice) will necessarily miss the best-performing models, making these studies blind to a whole range of phenomena.

Modeling latent variables with priors and hyperpriors is an essential problem in variational image compression. Formally, trade-off between rate and distortion is handled well if priors and hyperpriors precisely describe latent variables. Current practices only adopt univariate priors and process each variable individually. However, we find inter-correlations and intra-correlations exist when observing latent variables in a vectorized perspective. These findings reveal visual redundancies to improve rate-distortion performance and parallel processing ability to speed up compression. This encourages us to propose a novel vectorized prior. Specifically, a multivariate Gaussian mixture is proposed with means and covariances to be estimated. Then, a novel probabilistic vector quantization is utilized to effectively approximate means, and remaining covariances are further induced to a unified mixture and solved by cascaded estimation without context models involved. Furthermore, codebooks involved in quantization are extended to multi-codebooks for complexity reduction, which formulates an efficient compression procedure. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets against state-of-the-art indicate our model has better rate-distortion performance and an impressive 3.18times compression speed up, giving us the ability to perform real-time, high-quality variational image compression in practice. Our source code is publicly available at https://github.com/xiaosu-zhu/McQuic.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

With the rapid development of facial manipulation techniques, face forgery detection has received considerable attention in digital media forensics due to security concerns. Most existing methods formulate face forgery detection as a classification problem and utilize binary labels or manipulated region masks as supervision. However, without considering the correlation between local regions, these global supervisions are insufficient to learn a generalized feature and prone to overfitting. To address this issue, we propose a novel perspective of face forgery detection via local relation learning. Specifically, we propose a Multi-scale Patch Similarity Module (MPSM), which measures the similarity between features of local regions and forms a robust and generalized similarity pattern. Moreover, we propose an RGB-Frequency Attention Module (RFAM) to fuse information in both RGB and frequency domains for more comprehensive local feature representation, which further improves the reliability of the similarity pattern. Extensive experiments show that the proposed method consistently outperforms the state-of-the-arts on widely-used benchmarks. Furthermore, detailed visualization shows the robustness and interpretability of our method.

We propose a new technique, Singular Vector Canonical Correlation Analysis (SVCCA), a tool for quickly comparing two representations in a way that is both invariant to affine transform (allowing comparison between different layers and networks) and fast to compute (allowing more comparisons to be calculated than with previous methods). We deploy this tool to measure the intrinsic dimensionality of layers, showing in some cases needless over-parameterization; to probe learning dynamics throughout training, finding that networks converge to final representations from the bottom up; to show where class-specific information in networks is formed; and to suggest new training regimes that simultaneously save computation and overfit less. Code: https://github.com/google/svcca/

How might one test the hypothesis that networks were sampled from the same distribution? Here, we compare two statistical tests that use subgraph counts to address this question. The first uses the empirical subgraph densities themselves as estimates of those of the underlying distribution. The second test uses a new approach that converts these subgraph densities into estimates of the graph cumulants of the distribution (without any increase in computational complexity). We demonstrate -- via theory, simulation, and application to real data -- the superior statistical power of using graph cumulants. In summary, when analyzing data using subgraph/motif densities, we suggest using the corresponding graph cumulants instead.

We propose a direct estimation method for R\'{e}nyi and f-divergence measures based on a new graph theoretical interpretation. Suppose that we are given two sample sets X and Y, respectively with N and M samples, where eta:=M/N is a constant value. Considering the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) graph of Y in the joint data set (X,Y), we show that the average powered ratio of the number of X points to the number of Y points among all k-NN points is proportional to R\'{e}nyi divergence of X and Y densities. A similar method can also be used to estimate f-divergence measures. We derive bias and variance rates, and show that for the class of gamma-H\"{o}lder smooth functions, the estimator achieves the MSE rate of O(N^{-2gamma/(gamma+d)}). Furthermore, by using a weighted ensemble estimation technique, for density functions with continuous and bounded derivatives of up to the order d, and some extra conditions at the support set boundary, we derive an ensemble estimator that achieves the parametric MSE rate of O(1/N). Our estimators are more computationally tractable than other competing estimators, which makes them appealing in many practical applications.

Despite the widespread application of latent factor analysis, existing methods suffer from the following weaknesses: requiring the number of factors to be known, lack of theoretical guarantees for learning the model structure, and nonidentifiability of the parameters due to rotation invariance properties of the likelihood. We address these concerns by proposing a fast correlation thresholding (CT) algorithm that simultaneously learns the number of latent factors and a rotationally identifiable model structure. Our novel approach translates this structure learning problem into the search for so-called independent maximal cliques in a thresholded correlation graph that can be easily constructed from the observed data. Our clique analysis technique scales well up to thousands of variables, while competing methods are not applicable in a reasonable amount of running time. We establish a finite-sample error bound and high-dimensional consistency for the structure learning of our method. Through a series of simulation studies and a real data example, we show that the CT algorithm is an accurate method for learning the structure of factor analysis models and is robust to violations of its assumptions.

Using data from the Galaxy and Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey, we investigate how galaxy properties correlate with the local environment, focusing on the two southern regions of the survey (G02 and G23) that have not previously been examined in this context. We employ two-point and marked correlation functions to quantify the environmental dependence of galaxy color, stellar mass, luminosity across the u, g, r, J, and K bands, as well as star formation rate (SFR) and specific star formation rate (sSFR). We also assess the impact of redshift incompleteness and cosmic variance on these clustering measurements. Our results show that u-r and g-r colors are most strongly correlated with local overdensity, followed by stellar mass. The sSFR exhibits a clear inverse relationship with density of the environment, consistent with the trend observed for u-band luminosity, which traces young stellar populations. In contrast, galaxies brighter in the g, J, and K bands preferentially inhabit denser regions. By comparing our measurements from the southern regions with those from the equatorial regions of GAMA, we find that cosmic variance does not significantly influence our conclusions. However, redshift incompleteness affects the clustering measurements, as revealed through comparisons of subsets within the G02 region. The measured correlations provide key constraints for models of galaxy assembly across mass and environment, while the environmental trends in color and near-infrared luminosity offer a means to trace stellar mass growth and quenching with redshift.

Autoencoders have been proposed as a powerful tool for model-independent anomaly detection in high-energy physics. The operating principle is that events which do not belong to the space of training data will be reconstructed poorly, thus flagging them as anomalies. We point out that in a variety of examples of interest, the connection between large reconstruction error and anomalies is not so clear. In particular, for data sets with nontrivial topology, there will always be points that erroneously seem anomalous due to global issues. Conversely, neural networks typically have an inductive bias or prior to locally interpolate such that undersampled or rare events may be reconstructed with small error, despite actually being the desired anomalies. Taken together, these facts are in tension with the simple picture of the autoencoder as an anomaly detector. Using a series of illustrative low-dimensional examples, we show explicitly how the intrinsic and extrinsic topology of the dataset affects the behavior of an autoencoder and how this topology is manifested in the latent space representation during training. We ground this analysis in the discussion of a mock "bump hunt" in which the autoencoder fails to identify an anomalous "signal" for reasons tied to the intrinsic topology of n-particle phase space.

In this manuscript we consider the problem of generalized linear estimation on Gaussian mixture data with labels given by a single-index model. Our first result is a sharp asymptotic expression for the test and training errors in the high-dimensional regime. Motivated by the recent stream of results on the Gaussian universality of the test and training errors in generalized linear estimation, we ask ourselves the question: "when is a single Gaussian enough to characterize the error?". Our formula allow us to give sharp answers to this question, both in the positive and negative directions. More precisely, we show that the sufficient conditions for Gaussian universality (or lack of thereof) crucially depend on the alignment between the target weights and the means and covariances of the mixture clusters, which we precisely quantify. In the particular case of least-squares interpolation, we prove a strong universality property of the training error, and show it follows a simple, closed-form expression. Finally, we apply our results to real datasets, clarifying some recent discussion in the literature about Gaussian universality of the errors in this context.

In this work we present a new method for the estimation of Mutual Information (MI) between random variables. Our approach is based on an original interpretation of the Girsanov theorem, which allows us to use score-based diffusion models to estimate the Kullback Leibler divergence between two densities as a difference between their score functions. As a by-product, our method also enables the estimation of the entropy of random variables. Armed with such building blocks, we present a general recipe to measure MI, which unfolds in two directions: one uses conditional diffusion process, whereas the other uses joint diffusion processes that allow simultaneous modelling of two random variables. Our results, which derive from a thorough experimental protocol over all the variants of our approach, indicate that our method is more accurate than the main alternatives from the literature, especially for challenging distributions. Furthermore, our methods pass MI self-consistency tests, including data processing and additivity under independence, which instead are a pain-point of existing methods.

Virtual sensing techniques allow for inferring signals at new unmonitored locations by exploiting spatio-temporal measurements coming from physical sensors at different locations. However, as the sensor coverage becomes sparse due to costs or other constraints, physical proximity cannot be used to support interpolation. In this paper, we overcome this challenge by leveraging dependencies between the target variable and a set of correlated variables (covariates) that can frequently be associated with each location of interest. From this viewpoint, covariates provide partial observability, and the problem consists of inferring values for unobserved channels by exploiting observations at other locations to learn how such variables can correlate. We introduce a novel graph-based methodology to exploit such relationships and design a graph deep learning architecture, named GgNet, implementing the framework. The proposed approach relies on propagating information over a nested graph structure that is used to learn dependencies between variables as well as locations. GgNet is extensively evaluated under different virtual sensing scenarios, demonstrating higher reconstruction accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art.

Formula alpha mining, which generates predictive signals from financial data, is critical for quantitative investment. Although various algorithmic approaches-such as genetic programming, reinforcement learning, and large language models-have significantly expanded the capacity for alpha discovery, systematic evaluation remains a key challenge. Existing evaluation metrics predominantly include backtesting and correlation-based measures. Backtesting is computationally intensive, inherently sequential, and sensitive to specific strategy parameters. Correlation-based metrics, though efficient, assess only predictive ability and overlook other crucial properties such as temporal stability, robustness, diversity, and interpretability. Additionally, the closed-source nature of most existing alpha mining models hinders reproducibility and slows progress in this field. To address these issues, we propose AlphaEval, a unified, parallelizable, and backtest-free evaluation framework for automated alpha mining models. AlphaEval assesses the overall quality of generated alphas along five complementary dimensions: predictive power, stability, robustness to market perturbations, financial logic, and diversity. Extensive experiments across representative alpha mining algorithms demonstrate that AlphaEval achieves evaluation consistency comparable to comprehensive backtesting, while providing more comprehensive insights and higher efficiency. Furthermore, AlphaEval effectively identifies superior alphas compared to traditional single-metric screening approaches. All implementations and evaluation tools are open-sourced to promote reproducibility and community engagement.

The Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) family of methods is foundational in multiview learning. Regularised linear CCA methods can be seen to generalise Partial Least Squares (PLS) and be unified with a Generalized Eigenvalue Problem (GEP) framework. However, classical algorithms for these linear methods are computationally infeasible for large-scale data. Extensions to Deep CCA show great promise, but current training procedures are slow and complicated. First we propose a novel unconstrained objective that characterizes the top subspace of GEPs. Our core contribution is a family of fast algorithms for stochastic PLS, stochastic CCA, and Deep CCA, simply obtained by applying stochastic gradient descent (SGD) to the corresponding CCA objectives. Our algorithms show far faster convergence and recover higher correlations than the previous state-of-the-art on all standard CCA and Deep CCA benchmarks. These improvements allow us to perform a first-of-its-kind PLS analysis of an extremely large biomedical dataset from the UK Biobank, with over 33,000 individuals and 500,000 features. Finally, we apply our algorithms to match the performance of `CCA-family' Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) methods on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 with minimal hyper-parameter tuning, and also present theory to clarify the links between these methods and classical CCA, laying the groundwork for future insights.

The convolution layer has been the dominant feature extractor in computer vision for years. However, the spatial aggregation in convolution is basically a pattern matching process that applies fixed filters which are inefficient at modeling visual elements with varying spatial distributions. This paper presents a new image feature extractor, called the local relation layer, that adaptively determines aggregation weights based on the compositional relationship of local pixel pairs. With this relational approach, it can composite visual elements into higher-level entities in a more efficient manner that benefits semantic inference. A network built with local relation layers, called the Local Relation Network (LR-Net), is found to provide greater modeling capacity than its counterpart built with regular convolution on large-scale recognition tasks such as ImageNet classification.

Mechanistic interpretability aims to understand the behavior of neural networks by reverse-engineering their internal computations. However, current methods struggle to find clear interpretations of neural network activations because a decomposition of activations into computational features is missing. Individual neurons or model components do not cleanly correspond to distinct features or functions. We present a novel interpretability method that aims to overcome this limitation by transforming the activations of the network into a new basis - the Local Interaction Basis (LIB). LIB aims to identify computational features by removing irrelevant activations and interactions. Our method drops irrelevant activation directions and aligns the basis with the singular vectors of the Jacobian matrix between adjacent layers. It also scales features based on their importance for downstream computation, producing an interaction graph that shows all computationally-relevant features and interactions in a model. We evaluate the effectiveness of LIB on modular addition and CIFAR-10 models, finding that it identifies more computationally-relevant features that interact more sparsely, compared to principal component analysis. However, LIB does not yield substantial improvements in interpretability or interaction sparsity when applied to language models. We conclude that LIB is a promising theory-driven approach for analyzing neural networks, but in its current form is not applicable to large language models.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Many clustering schemes are defined by optimizing an objective function defined on the partitions of the underlying set of a finite metric space. In this paper, we construct a framework for studying what happens when we instead impose various structural conditions on the clustering schemes, under the general heading of functoriality. Functoriality refers to the idea that one should be able to compare the results of clustering algorithms as one varies the data set, for example by adding points or by applying functions to it. We show that within this framework, one can prove a theorems analogous to one of J. Kleinberg, in which for example one obtains an existence and uniqueness theorem instead of a non-existence result. We obtain a full classification of all clustering schemes satisfying a condition we refer to as excisiveness. The classification can be changed by varying the notion of maps of finite metric spaces. The conditions occur naturally when one considers clustering as the statistical version of the geometric notion of connected components. By varying the degree of functoriality that one requires from the schemes it is possible to construct richer families of clustering schemes that exhibit sensitivity to density.

Pairwise clustering, in general, partitions a set of items via a known similarity function. In our treatment, clustering is modeled as a transductive prediction problem. Thus rather than beginning with a known similarity function, the function instead is hidden and the learner only receives a random sample consisting of a subset of the pairwise similarities. An additional set of pairwise side-information may be given to the learner, which then determines the inductive bias of our algorithms. We measure performance not based on the recovery of the hidden similarity function, but instead on how well we classify each item. We give tight bounds on the number of misclassifications. We provide two algorithms. The first algorithm SACA is a simple agglomerative clustering algorithm which runs in near linear time, and which serves as a baseline for our analyses. Whereas the second algorithm, RGCA, enables the incorporation of side-information which may lead to improved bounds at the cost of a longer running time.

We consider the problem of graph matching, or learning vertex correspondence, between two correlated stochastic block models (SBMs). The graph matching problem arises in various fields, including computer vision, natural language processing and bioinformatics, and in particular, matching graphs with inherent community structure has significance related to de-anonymization of correlated social networks. Compared to the correlated Erdos-Renyi (ER) model, where various efficient algorithms have been developed, among which a few algorithms have been proven to achieve the exact matching with constant edge correlation, no low-order polynomial algorithm has been known to achieve exact matching for the correlated SBMs with constant correlation. In this work, we propose an efficient algorithm for matching graphs with community structure, based on the comparison between partition trees rooted from each vertex, by extending the idea of Mao et al. (2021) to graphs with communities. The partition tree divides the large neighborhoods of each vertex into disjoint subsets using their edge statistics to different communities. Our algorithm is the first low-order polynomial-time algorithm achieving exact matching between two correlated SBMs with high probability in dense graphs.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

Explaining multivariate time series is a compound challenge, as it requires identifying important locations in the time series and matching complex temporal patterns. Although previous saliency-based methods addressed the challenges, their perturbation may not alleviate the distribution shift issue, which is inevitable especially in heterogeneous samples. We present ContraLSP, a locally sparse model that introduces counterfactual samples to build uninformative perturbations but keeps distribution using contrastive learning. Furthermore, we incorporate sample-specific sparse gates to generate more binary-skewed and smooth masks, which easily integrate temporal trends and select the salient features parsimoniously. Empirical studies on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that ContraLSP outperforms state-of-the-art models, demonstrating a substantial improvement in explanation quality for time series data. The source code is available at https://github.com/zichuan-liu/ContraLSP.

In high dimension, low sample size (HDLSS) settings, classifiers based on Euclidean distances like the nearest neighbor classifier and the average distance classifier perform quite poorly if differences between locations of the underlying populations get masked by scale differences. To rectify this problem, several modifications of these classifiers have been proposed in the literature. However, existing methods are confined to location and scale differences only, and often fail to discriminate among populations differing outside of the first two moments. In this article, we propose some simple transformations of these classifiers resulting into improved performance even when the underlying populations have the same location and scale. We further propose a generalization of these classifiers based on the idea of grouping of variables. The high-dimensional behavior of the proposed classifiers is studied theoretically. Numerical experiments with a variety of simulated examples as well as an extensive analysis of real data sets exhibit advantages of the proposed methods.

Suppose Alice trains an open-weight language model and Bob uses a blackbox derivative of Alice's model to produce text. Can Alice prove that Bob is using her model, either by querying Bob's derivative model (query setting) or from the text alone (observational setting)? We formulate this question as an independence testing problem--in which the null hypothesis is that Bob's model or text is independent of Alice's randomized training run--and investigate it through the lens of palimpsestic memorization in language models: models are more likely to memorize data seen later in training, so we can test whether Bob is using Alice's model using test statistics that capture correlation between Bob's model or text and the ordering of training examples in Alice's training run. If Alice has randomly shuffled her training data, then any significant correlation amounts to exactly quantifiable statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, regardless of the composition of Alice's training data. In the query setting, we directly estimate (via prompting) the likelihood Bob's model gives to Alice's training examples and order; we correlate the likelihoods of over 40 fine-tunes of various Pythia and OLMo base models ranging from 1B to 12B parameters with the base model's training data order, achieving a p-value on the order of at most 1e-8 in all but six cases. In the observational setting, we try two approaches based on estimating 1) the likelihood of Bob's text overlapping with spans of Alice's training examples and 2) the likelihood of Bob's text with respect to different versions of Alice's model we obtain by repeating the last phase (e.g., 1%) of her training run on reshuffled data. The second approach can reliably distinguish Bob's text from as little as a few hundred tokens; the first does not involve any retraining but requires many more tokens (several hundred thousand) to achieve high power.

Earthquakes are evaluated among the most destructive disasters for human beings, as also experienced for Turkiye region. Data science has the property of discovering hidden patterns in case a sufficient volume of data is supplied. Time dependency of events, specifically being defined by co-occurrence in a specific time window, may be handled as an associate rule mining task such as a market-basket analysis application. In this regard, we assumed each day's seismic activity as a single basket of events, leading to discovering the association patterns between these events. Consequently, this study presents the most prominent association rules for the earthquakes recorded in Turkiye region in the last 5 years, each year presented separately. Results indicate statistical inference with events recorded from regions of various distances, which could be further verified with geologic evidence from the field. As a result, we believe that the current study may form a statistical basis for the future works with the aid of machine learning algorithm performed for associate rule mining.

Link prediction, a fundamental task on graphs, has proven indispensable in various applications, e.g., friend recommendation, protein analysis, and drug interaction prediction. However, since datasets span a multitude of domains, they could have distinct underlying mechanisms of link formation. Evidence in existing literature underscores the absence of a universally best algorithm suitable for all datasets. In this paper, we endeavor to explore principles of link prediction across diverse datasets from a data-centric perspective. We recognize three fundamental factors critical to link prediction: local structural proximity, global structural proximity, and feature proximity. We then unearth relationships among those factors where (i) global structural proximity only shows effectiveness when local structural proximity is deficient. (ii) The incompatibility can be found between feature and structural proximity. Such incompatibility leads to GNNs for Link Prediction (GNN4LP) consistently underperforming on edges where the feature proximity factor dominates. Inspired by these new insights from a data perspective, we offer practical instruction for GNN4LP model design and guidelines for selecting appropriate benchmark datasets for more comprehensive evaluations.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

In visual-based Reinforcement Learning (RL), agents often struggle to generalize well to environmental variations in the state space that were not observed during training. The variations can arise in both task-irrelevant features, such as background noise, and task-relevant features, such as robot configurations, that are related to the optimal decisions. To achieve generalization in both situations, agents are required to accurately understand the impact of changed features on the decisions, i.e., establishing the true associations between changed features and decisions in the policy model. However, due to the inherent correlations among features in the state space, the associations between features and decisions become entangled, making it difficult for the policy to distinguish them. To this end, we propose Saliency-Guided Features Decorrelation (SGFD) to eliminate these correlations through sample reweighting. Concretely, SGFD consists of two core techniques: Random Fourier Functions (RFF) and the saliency map. RFF is utilized to estimate the complex non-linear correlations in high-dimensional images, while the saliency map is designed to identify the changed features. Under the guidance of the saliency map, SGFD employs sample reweighting to minimize the estimated correlations related to changed features, thereby achieving decorrelation in visual RL tasks. Our experimental results demonstrate that SGFD can generalize well on a wide range of test environments and significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in handling both task-irrelevant variations and task-relevant variations.

The goal of predictive data attribution is to estimate how adding or removing a given set of training datapoints will affect model predictions. In convex settings, this goal is straightforward (i.e., via the infinitesimal jackknife). In large-scale (non-convex) settings, however, existing methods are far less successful -- current methods' estimates often only weakly correlate with ground truth. In this work, we present a new data attribution method (MAGIC) that combines classical methods and recent advances in metadifferentiation to (nearly) optimally estimate the effect of adding or removing training data on model predictions.

We investigate the sets of joint probability distributions that maximize the average multi-information over a collection of margins. These functionals serve as proxies for maximizing the multi-information of a set of variables or the mutual information of two subsets of variables, at a lower computation and estimation complexity. We describe the maximizers and their relations to the maximizers of the multi-information and the mutual information.

Modelling interactions is critical in learning complex dynamical systems, namely systems of interacting objects with highly non-linear and time-dependent behaviour. A large class of such systems can be formalized as geometric graphs, i.e., graphs with nodes positioned in the Euclidean space given an arbitrarily chosen global coordinate system, for instance vehicles in a traffic scene. Notwithstanding the arbitrary global coordinate system, the governing dynamics of the respective dynamical systems are invariant to rotations and translations, also known as Galilean invariance. As ignoring these invariances leads to worse generalization, in this work we propose local coordinate frames per node-object to induce roto-translation invariance to the geometric graph of the interacting dynamical system. Further, the local coordinate frames allow for a natural definition of anisotropic filtering in graph neural networks. Experiments in traffic scenes, 3D motion capture, and colliding particles demonstrate that the proposed approach comfortably outperforms the recent state-of-the-art.

We are born with the ability to learn concepts by comparing diverse observations. This helps us to understand the new world in a compositional manner and facilitates extrapolation, as objects naturally consist of multiple concepts. In this work, we argue that the cognitive mechanism of comparison, fundamental to human learning, is also vital for machines to recover true concepts underlying the data. This offers correctness guarantees for the field of concept learning, which, despite its impressive empirical successes, still lacks general theoretical support. Specifically, we aim to develop a theoretical framework for the identifiability of concepts with multiple classes of observations. We show that with sufficient diversity across classes, hidden concepts can be identified without assuming specific concept types, functional relations, or parametric generative models. Interestingly, even when conditions are not globally satisfied, we can still provide alternative guarantees for as many concepts as possible based on local comparisons, thereby extending the applicability of our theory to more flexible scenarios. Moreover, the hidden structure between classes and concepts can also be identified nonparametrically. We validate our theoretical results in both synthetic and real-world settings.

We consider N classical particles interacting via the Coulomb potential in spatial dimension d and in the presence of an external trap, at equilibrium at inverse temperature beta. In the large N limit, the particles are confined within a droplet of finite size. We study smooth linear statistics, i.e. the fluctuations of sums of the form {cal L}_N = sum_{i=1}^N f({bf x}_i), where {bf x}_i's are the positions of the particles and where f({bf x}_i) is a sufficiently regular function. There exists at present standard results for the first and second moments of {cal L}_N in the large N limit, as well as associated Central Limit Theorems in general dimension and for a wide class of confining potentials. Here we obtain explicit expressions for the higher order cumulants of {cal L}_N at large N, when the function f({bf x})=f(|{bf x}|) and the confining potential are both rotationnally invariant. A remarkable feature of our results is that these higher cumulants depend only on the value of f'(|{bf x}|) and its higher order derivatives evaluated exactly at the boundary of the droplet, which in this case is a d-dimensional sphere. In the particular two-dimensional case d=2 at the special value beta=2, a connection to the Ginibre ensemble allows us to derive these results in an alternative way using the tools of determinantal point processes. Finally we also obtain the large deviation form of the full probability distribution function of {cal L}_N.

In this paper, we revisit the problem of sparse linear regression in the local differential privacy (LDP) model. Existing research in the non-interactive and sequentially local models has focused on obtaining the lower bounds for the case where the underlying parameter is 1-sparse, and extending such bounds to the more general k-sparse case has proven to be challenging. Moreover, it is unclear whether efficient non-interactive LDP (NLDP) algorithms exist. To address these issues, we first consider the problem in the epsilon non-interactive LDP model and provide a lower bound of Omega(sqrt{dklog d}{nepsilon}) on the ell_2-norm estimation error for sub-Gaussian data, where n is the sample size and d is the dimension of the space. We propose an innovative NLDP algorithm, the very first of its kind for the problem. As a remarkable outcome, this algorithm also yields a novel and highly efficient estimator as a valuable by-product. Our algorithm achieves an upper bound of O({dsqrt{k}{nepsilon}}) for the estimation error when the data is sub-Gaussian, which can be further improved by a factor of O(d) if the server has additional public but unlabeled data. For the sequentially interactive LDP model, we show a similar lower bound of Omega({sqrt{dk}{nepsilon}}). As for the upper bound, we rectify a previous method and show that it is possible to achieve a bound of O(ksqrt{d}{nepsilon}). Our findings reveal fundamental differences between the non-private case, central DP model, and local DP model in the sparse linear regression problem.

Ensuring equitable treatment (fairness) across protected attributes (such as gender or ethnicity) is a critical issue in machine learning. Most existing literature focuses on binary classification, but achieving fairness in regression tasks-such as insurance pricing or hiring score assessments-is equally important. Moreover, anti-discrimination laws also apply to continuous attributes, such as age, for which many existing methods are not applicable. In practice, multiple protected attributes can exist simultaneously; however, methods targeting fairness across several attributes often overlook so-called "fairness gerrymandering", thereby ignoring disparities among intersectional subgroups (e.g., African-American women or Hispanic men). In this paper, we propose a distance covariance regularisation framework that mitigates the association between model predictions and protected attributes, in line with the fairness definition of demographic parity, and that captures both linear and nonlinear dependencies. To enhance applicability in the presence of multiple protected attributes, we extend our framework by incorporating two multivariate dependence measures based on distance covariance: the previously proposed joint distance covariance (JdCov) and our novel concatenated distance covariance (CCdCov), which effectively address fairness gerrymandering in both regression and classification tasks involving protected attributes of various types. We discuss and illustrate how to calibrate regularisation strength, including a method based on Jensen-Shannon divergence, which quantifies dissimilarities in prediction distributions across groups. We apply our framework to the COMPAS recidivism dataset and a large motor insurance claims dataset.

Visual clustering is a common perceptual task in scatterplots that supports diverse analytics tasks (e.g., cluster identification). However, even with the same scatterplot, the ways of perceiving clusters (i.e., conducting visual clustering) can differ due to the differences among individuals and ambiguous cluster boundaries. Although such perceptual variability casts doubt on the reliability of data analysis based on visual clustering, we lack a systematic way to efficiently assess this variability. In this research, we study perceptual variability in conducting visual clustering, which we call Cluster Ambiguity. To this end, we introduce CLAMS, a data-driven visual quality measure for automatically predicting cluster ambiguity in monochrome scatterplots. We first conduct a qualitative study to identify key factors that affect the visual separation of clusters (e.g., proximity or size difference between clusters). Based on study findings, we deploy a regression module that estimates the human-judged separability of two clusters. Then, CLAMS predicts cluster ambiguity by analyzing the aggregated results of all pairwise separability between clusters that are generated by the module. CLAMS outperforms widely-used clustering techniques in predicting ground truth cluster ambiguity. Meanwhile, CLAMS exhibits performance on par with human annotators. We conclude our work by presenting two applications for optimizing and benchmarking data mining techniques using CLAMS. The interactive demo of CLAMS is available at clusterambiguity.dev.

We study differentially private (DP) algorithms for recovering clusters in well-clustered graphs, which are graphs whose vertex set can be partitioned into a small number of sets, each inducing a subgraph of high inner conductance and small outer conductance. Such graphs have widespread application as a benchmark in the theoretical analysis of spectral clustering. We provide an efficient (epsilon,delta)-DP algorithm tailored specifically for such graphs. Our algorithm draws inspiration from the recent work of Chen et al., who developed DP algorithms for recovery of stochastic block models in cases where the graph comprises exactly two nearly-balanced clusters. Our algorithm works for well-clustered graphs with k nearly-balanced clusters, and the misclassification ratio almost matches the one of the best-known non-private algorithms. We conduct experimental evaluations on datasets with known ground truth clusters to substantiate the prowess of our algorithm. We also show that any (pure) epsilon-DP algorithm would result in substantial error.

We revisit the flat-sky approximation for evaluating the angular power spectra of projected random fields by retaining information about the correlations along the line of sight. With broad, overlapping radial window functions, these line-of-sight correlations are suppressed and are ignored in the Limber approximation. However, retaining the correlations is important for narrow window functions or unequal-time spectra but introduces significant computational difficulties due to the highly oscillatory nature of the integrands involved. We deal with the integral over line-of-sight wave-modes in the flat-sky approximation analytically, using the FFTlog expansion of the 3D power spectrum. This results in an efficient computational method, which is a substantial improvement compared to any full-sky approaches. We apply our results to galaxy clustering (with and without redshift-space distortions), CMB lensing and galaxy lensing observables. For clustering, we find excellent agreement with the full-sky results on large (percent-level agreement) and intermediate or small (subpercent agreement) scales, dramatically out-performing the Limber approximation for both wide and narrow window functions, and in equal- and unequal-time cases. In the case of lensing, we show on the full sky that the angular power spectrum of the convergence can be very well approximated by projecting the 3D Laplacian (rather than the correct angular Laplacian) of the gravitational potential, even on large scales. Combining this approximation with our flat-sky techniques provides an efficient and accurate evaluation of the CMB lensing angular power spectrum on all scales.

We study the statistics of the local resolvent and non-ergodic properties of eigenvectors for a generalised Rosenzweig-Porter Ntimes N random matrix model, undergoing two transitions separated by a delocalised non-ergodic phase. Interpreting the model as the combination of on-site random energies {a_i} and a structurally disordered hopping, we found that each eigenstate is delocalised over N^{2-gamma} sites close in energy |a_j-a_i|leq N^{1-gamma} in agreement with Kravtsov et al, arXiv:1508.01714. Our other main result, obtained combining a recurrence relation for the resolvent matrix with insights from Dyson's Brownian motion, is to show that the properties of the non-ergodic delocalised phase can be probed studying the statistics of the local resolvent in a non-standard scaling limit.

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying cause-effect relationships from observations of a scene or system, is an inherent mechanism in human cognition, but has been shown to be highly challenging to automate. The majority of approaches in the literature aiming for this task consider constrained scenarios with fully observed variables or data from stationary time-series. In this work we aim for causal discovery in a more general class of scenarios, scenes with non-stationary behavior over time. For our purposes we here regard a scene as a composition objects interacting with each other over time. Non-stationarity is modeled as stationarity conditioned on an underlying variable, a state, which can be of varying dimension, more or less hidden given observations of the scene, and also depend more or less directly on these observations. We propose a probabilistic deep learning approach called State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for causal discovery in such conditionally stationary time-series data. Results in two different synthetic scenarios show that this method is able to recover the underlying causal dependencies with high accuracy even in cases with hidden states.

We examine the geometry of neural network training using the Jacobian of trained network parameters with respect to their initial values. Our analysis reveals low-dimensional structure in the training process which is dependent on the input data but largely independent of the labels. We find that the singular value spectrum of the Jacobian matrix consists of three distinctive regions: a "chaotic" region of values orders of magnitude greater than one, a large "bulk" region of values extremely close to one, and a "stable" region of values less than one. Along each bulk direction, the left and right singular vectors are nearly identical, indicating that perturbations to the initialization are carried through training almost unchanged. These perturbations have virtually no effect on the network's output in-distribution, yet do have an effect far out-of-distribution. While the Jacobian applies only locally around a single initialization, we find substantial overlap in bulk subspaces for different random seeds. Our code is available at https://github.com/EleutherAI/training-jacobian

Networks provide a powerful formalism for modeling complex systems by using a model of pairwise interactions. But much of the structure within these systems involves interactions that take place among more than two nodes at once; for example, communication within a group rather than person-to person, collaboration among a team rather than a pair of coauthors, or biological interaction between a set of molecules rather than just two. Such higher-order interactions are ubiquitous, but their empirical study has received limited attention, and little is known about possible organizational principles of such structures. Here we study the temporal evolution of 19 datasets with explicit accounting for higher-order interactions. We show that there is a rich variety of structure in our datasets but datasets from the same system types have consistent patterns of higher-order structure. Furthermore, we find that tie strength and edge density are competing positive indicators of higher-order organization, and these trends are consistent across interactions involving differing numbers of nodes. To systematically further the study of theories for such higher-order structures, we propose higher-order link prediction as a benchmark problem to assess models and algorithms that predict higher-order structure. We find a fundamental differences from traditional pairwise link prediction, with a greater role for local rather than long-range information in predicting the appearance of new interactions.

In the field of algorithmic fairness, significant attention has been put on group fairness criteria, such as Demographic Parity and Equalized Odds. Nevertheless, these objectives, measured as global averages, have raised concerns about persistent local disparities between sensitive groups. In this work, we address the problem of local fairness, which ensures that the predictor is unbiased not only in terms of expectations over the whole population, but also within any subregion of the feature space, unknown at training time. To enforce this objective, we introduce ROAD, a novel approach that leverages the Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) framework within a fair adversarial learning objective, where an adversary tries to infer the sensitive attribute from the predictions. Using an instance-level re-weighting strategy, ROAD is designed to prioritize inputs that are likely to be locally unfair, i.e. where the adversary faces the least difficulty in reconstructing the sensitive attribute. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method: it achieves Pareto dominance with respect to local fairness and accuracy for a given global fairness level across three standard datasets, and also enhances fairness generalization under distribution shift.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

We study the realizability of simplicial complexes with a given pair of integer sequences, representing the node degree distribution and the facet size distribution, respectively. While the s-uniform variant of the problem is NP-complete when s geq 3, we identify two populations of input sequences, most of which can be solved in polynomial time using a recursive algorithm that we contribute. Combining with a sampler for the simplicial configuration model [J.-G. Young et al., Phys. Rev. E 96, 032312 (2017)], we facilitate the efficient sampling of simplicial ensembles from arbitrary degree and size distributions. We find that, contrary to expectations based on dyadic networks, increasing the nodes' degrees reduces the number of loops in simplicial complexes. Our work unveils a fundamental constraint on the degree-size sequences and sheds light on further analysis of higher-order phenomena based on local structures.

Graph structure learning aims to learn connectivity in a graph from data. It is particularly important for many computer vision related tasks since no explicit graph structure is available for images for most cases. A natural way to construct a graph among images is to treat each image as a node and assign pairwise image similarities as weights to corresponding edges. It is well known that pairwise similarities between images are sensitive to the noise in feature representations, leading to unreliable graph structures. We address this problem from the viewpoint of statistical tests. By viewing the feature vector of each node as an independent sample, the decision of whether creating an edge between two nodes based on their similarity in feature representation can be thought as a {it single} statistical test. To improve the robustness in the decision of creating an edge, multiple samples are drawn and integrated by {it multiple} statistical tests to generate a more reliable similarity measure, consequentially more reliable graph structure. The corresponding elegant matrix form named B-Attention is designed for efficiency. The effectiveness of multiple tests for graph structure learning is verified both theoretically and empirically on multiple clustering and ReID benchmark datasets. Source codes are available at https://github.com/Thomas-wyh/B-Attention.

Deep neural networks have reached human-level performance on many computer vision tasks. However, the objectives used to train these networks enforce only that similar images are embedded at similar locations in the representation space, and do not directly constrain the global structure of the resulting space. Here, we explore the impact of supervising this global structure by linearly aligning it with human similarity judgments. We find that a naive approach leads to large changes in local representational structure that harm downstream performance. Thus, we propose a novel method that aligns the global structure of representations while preserving their local structure. This global-local transform considerably improves accuracy across a variety of few-shot learning and anomaly detection tasks. Our results indicate that human visual representations are globally organized in a way that facilitates learning from few examples, and incorporating this global structure into neural network representations improves performance on downstream tasks.

We consider the visual disambiguation task of determining whether a pair of visually similar images depict the same or distinct 3D surfaces (e.g., the same or opposite sides of a symmetric building). Illusory image matches, where two images observe distinct but visually similar 3D surfaces, can be challenging for humans to differentiate, and can also lead 3D reconstruction algorithms to produce erroneous results. We propose a learning-based approach to visual disambiguation, formulating it as a binary classification task on image pairs. To that end, we introduce a new dataset for this problem, Doppelgangers, which includes image pairs of similar structures with ground truth labels. We also design a network architecture that takes the spatial distribution of local keypoints and matches as input, allowing for better reasoning about both local and global cues. Our evaluation shows that our method can distinguish illusory matches in difficult cases, and can be integrated into SfM pipelines to produce correct, disambiguated 3D reconstructions. See our project page for our code, datasets, and more results: http://doppelgangers-3d.github.io/.

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

Many existing FL methods assume clients with fully-labeled data, while in realistic settings, clients have limited labels due to the expensive and laborious process of labeling. Limited labeled local data of the clients often leads to their local model having poor generalization abilities to their larger unlabeled local data, such as having class-distribution mismatch with the unlabeled data. As a result, clients may instead look to benefit from the global model trained across clients to leverage their unlabeled data, but this also becomes difficult due to data heterogeneity across clients. In our work, we propose FedLabel where clients selectively choose the local or global model to pseudo-label their unlabeled data depending on which is more of an expert of the data. We further utilize both the local and global models' knowledge via global-local consistency regularization which minimizes the divergence between the two models' outputs when they have identical pseudo-labels for the unlabeled data. Unlike other semi-supervised FL baselines, our method does not require additional experts other than the local or global model, nor require additional parameters to be communicated. We also do not assume any server-labeled data or fully labeled clients. For both cross-device and cross-silo settings, we show that FedLabel outperforms other semi-supervised FL baselines by 8-24%, and even outperforms standard fully supervised FL baselines (100% labeled data) with only 5-20% of labeled data.

Establishing semantic correspondences between images is a fundamental yet challenging task in computer vision. Traditional feature-metric methods enhance visual features but may miss complex inter-correlation relationships, while recent correlation-metric approaches are hindered by high computational costs due to processing 4D correlation maps. We introduce MambaMatcher, a novel method that overcomes these limitations by efficiently modeling high-dimensional correlations using selective state-space models (SSMs). By implementing a similarity-aware selective scan mechanism adapted from Mamba's linear-complexity algorithm, MambaMatcher refines the 4D correlation map effectively without compromising feature map resolution or receptive field. Experiments on standard semantic correspondence benchmarks demonstrate that MambaMatcher achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Federated Learning (FL) models often experience client drift caused by heterogeneous data, where the distribution of data differs across clients. To address this issue, advanced research primarily focuses on manipulating the existing gradients to achieve more consistent client models. In this paper, we present an alternative perspective on client drift and aim to mitigate it by generating improved local models. First, we analyze the generalization contribution of local training and conclude that this generalization contribution is bounded by the conditional Wasserstein distance between the data distribution of different clients. Then, we propose FedImpro, to construct similar conditional distributions for local training. Specifically, FedImpro decouples the model into high-level and low-level components, and trains the high-level portion on reconstructed feature distributions. This approach enhances the generalization contribution and reduces the dissimilarity of gradients in FL. Experimental results show that FedImpro can help FL defend against data heterogeneity and enhance the generalization performance of the model.

In this paper we introduce Feature Gradients, a gradient-based search algorithm for feature selection. Our approach extends a recent result on the estimation of learnability in the sublinear data regime by showing that the calculation can be performed iteratively (i.e., in mini-batches) and in linear time and space with respect to both the number of features D and the sample size N . This, along with a discrete-to-continuous relaxation of the search domain, allows for an efficient, gradient-based search algorithm among feature subsets for very large datasets. Crucially, our algorithm is capable of finding higher-order correlations between features and targets for both the N > D and N < D regimes, as opposed to approaches that do not consider such interactions and/or only consider one regime. We provide experimental demonstration of the algorithm in small and large sample-and feature-size settings.

We here propose a machine learning approach for monitoring particle detectors in real-time. The goal is to assess the compatibility of incoming experimental data with a reference dataset, characterising the data behaviour under normal circumstances, via a likelihood-ratio hypothesis test. The model is based on a modern implementation of kernel methods, nonparametric algorithms that can learn any continuous function given enough data. The resulting approach is efficient and agnostic to the type of anomaly that may be present in the data. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of this strategy on multivariate data from drift tube chamber muon detectors.

This paper studies the online node classification problem under a transductive learning setting. Current methods either invert a graph kernel matrix with O(n^3) runtime and O(n^2) space complexity or sample a large volume of random spanning trees, thus are difficult to scale to large graphs. In this work, we propose an improvement based on the online relaxation technique introduced by a series of works (Rakhlin et al.,2012; Rakhlin and Sridharan, 2015; 2017). We first prove an effective regret O(n^{1+gamma}) when suitable parameterized graph kernels are chosen, then propose an approximate algorithm FastONL enjoying O(kn^{1+gamma}) regret based on this relaxation. The key of FastONL is a generalized local push method that effectively approximates inverse matrix columns and applies to a series of popular kernels. Furthermore, the per-prediction cost is O(vol({S})log 1/epsilon) locally dependent on the graph with linear memory cost. Experiments show that our scalable method enjoys a better tradeoff between local and global consistency.

Related works used indexes like CKA and variants of CCA to measure the similarity of cross-lingual representations in multilingual language models. In this paper, we argue that assumptions of CKA/CCA align poorly with one of the motivating goals of cross-lingual learning analysis, i.e., explaining zero-shot cross-lingual transfer. We highlight what valuable aspects of cross-lingual similarity these indexes fail to capture and provide a motivating case study demonstrating the problem empirically. Then, we introduce Average Neuron-Wise Correlation (ANC) as a straightforward alternative that is exempt from the difficulties of CKA/CCA and is good specifically in a cross-lingual context. Finally, we use ANC to construct evidence that the previously introduced ``first align, then predict'' pattern takes place not only in masked language models (MLMs) but also in multilingual models with causal language modeling objectives (CLMs). Moreover, we show that the pattern extends to the scaled versions of the MLMs and CLMs (up to 85x original mBERT).Our code is publicly available at \url{https://github.com/TartuNLP/xsim}

While the phenomenon of grokking, i.e., delayed generalization, has been studied extensively, it remains an open problem whether there is a mathematical framework that characterizes what kind of features will emerge, how and in which conditions it happens, and is closely related to the gradient dynamics of the training, for complex structured inputs. We propose a novel framework, named Li_2, that captures three key stages for the grokking behavior of 2-layer nonlinear networks: (I) \textbf{L}azy learning, (II) \textbf{i}ndependent feature learning and (III) \textbf{i}nteractive feature learning. At the lazy learning stage, top layer overfits to random hidden representation and the model appears to memorize. Thanks to lazy learning and weight decay, the backpropagated gradient G_F from the top layer now carries information about the target label, with a specific structure that enables each hidden node to learn their representation independently. Interestingly, the independent dynamics follows exactly the gradient ascent of an energy function E, and its local maxima are precisely the emerging features. We study whether these local-optima induced features are generalizable, their representation power, and how they change on sample size, in group arithmetic tasks. When hidden nodes start to interact in the later stage of learning, we provably show how G_F changes to focus on missing features that need to be learned. Our study sheds lights on roles played by key hyperparameters such as weight decay, learning rate and sample sizes in grokking, leads to provable scaling laws of feature emergence, memorization and generalization, and reveals the underlying cause why recent optimizers such as Muon can be effective, from the first principles of gradient dynamics. Our analysis can be extended to multi-layer architectures.

In semantic segmentation, the accuracy of models heavily depends on the high-quality annotations. However, in many practical scenarios such as medical imaging and remote sensing, obtaining true annotations is not straightforward and usually requires significant human labor. Relying on human labor often introduces annotation errors, including mislabeling, omissions, and inconsistency between annotators. In the case of remote sensing, differences in procurement time can lead to misaligned ground truth annotations. These label errors are not independently distributed, and instead usually appear in spatially connected regions where adjacent pixels are more likely to share the same errors. To address these issues, we propose an approximate Bayesian estimation based on a probabilistic model that assumes training data includes label errors, incorporating the tendency for these errors to occur with spatial correlations between adjacent pixels. Bayesian inference requires computing the posterior distribution of label errors, which becomes intractable when spatial correlations are present. We represent the correlation of label errors between adjacent pixels through a Gaussian distribution whose covariance is structured by a Kac-Murdock-Szeg\"{o} (KMS) matrix, solving the computational challenges. Through experiments on multiple segmentation tasks, we confirm that leveraging the spatial correlation of label errors significantly improves performance. Notably, in specific tasks such as lung segmentation, the proposed method achieves performance comparable to training with clean labels under moderate noise levels. Code is available at https://github.com/pfnet-research/Bayesian_SpatialCorr.

We investigate imbalanced regression with tabular data that have an imbalance ratio larger than 1,000 ("highly imbalanced"). Accurately estimating the target values of rare instances is important in applications such as forecasting the intensity of rare harmful Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. For regression, the MSE loss does not consider the correlation between predicted and actual values. Typical inverse importance functions allow only convex functions. Uniform sampling might yield mini-batches that do not have rare instances. We propose CISIR that incorporates correlation, Monotonically Decreasing Involution (MDI) importance, and stratified sampling. Based on five datasets, our experimental results indicate that CISIR can achieve lower error and higher correlation than some recent methods. Also, adding our correlation component to other recent methods can improve their performance. Lastly, MDI importance can outperform other importance functions. Our code can be found in https://github.com/Machine-Earning/CISIR.

Understanding and interpreting dynamics of functional materials in situ is a grand challenge in physics and materials science due to the difficulty of experimentally probing materials at varied length and time scales. X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) is uniquely well-suited for characterizing materials dynamics over wide-ranging time scales, however spatial and temporal heterogeneity in material behavior can make interpretation of experimental XPCS data difficult. In this work we have developed an unsupervised deep learning (DL) framework for automated classification and interpretation of relaxation dynamics from experimental data without requiring any prior physical knowledge of the system behavior. We demonstrate how this method can be used to rapidly explore large datasets to identify samples of interest, and we apply this approach to directly correlate bulk properties of a model system to microscopic dynamics. Importantly, this DL framework is material and process agnostic, marking a concrete step towards autonomous materials discovery.

Variational approaches based on neural networks are showing promise for estimating mutual information (MI) between high dimensional variables. However, they can be difficult to use in practice due to poorly understood bias/variance tradeoffs. We theoretically show that, under some conditions, estimators such as MINE exhibit variance that could grow exponentially with the true amount of underlying MI. We also empirically demonstrate that existing estimators fail to satisfy basic self-consistency properties of MI, such as data processing and additivity under independence. Based on a unified perspective of variational approaches, we develop a new estimator that focuses on variance reduction. Empirical results on standard benchmark tasks demonstrate that our proposed estimator exhibits improved bias-variance trade-offs on standard benchmark tasks.

Causal representation learning aims to unveil latent high-level causal representations from observed low-level data. One of its primary tasks is to provide reliable assurance of identifying these latent causal models, known as identifiability. A recent breakthrough explores identifiability by leveraging the change of causal influences among latent causal variables across multiple environments liu2022identifying. However, this progress rests on the assumption that the causal relationships among latent causal variables adhere strictly to linear Gaussian models. In this paper, we extend the scope of latent causal models to involve nonlinear causal relationships, represented by polynomial models, and general noise distributions conforming to the exponential family. Additionally, we investigate the necessity of imposing changes on all causal parameters and present partial identifiability results when part of them remains unchanged. Further, we propose a novel empirical estimation method, grounded in our theoretical finding, that enables learning consistent latent causal representations. Our experimental results, obtained from both synthetic and real-world data, validate our theoretical contributions concerning identifiability and consistency.

Local heights are arithmetic invariants used in the quadratic Chabauty method for determining the rational points on curves. We present an algorithm to compute these local heights for hyperelliptic curves at odd primes ellneq p. This algorithm significantly broadens the applicability of quadratic Chabauty to curves which were previously inaccessible due to the presence of non-trivial local heights. We provide numerous examples, including the first quadratic Chabauty computation for a curve having two primes with non-trivial local heights.

In this paper, we propose a dimensionless anomaly detection method for multivariate streams. Our method is independent of the unit of measurement for the different stream channels, therefore dimensionless. We first propose the variance norm, a generalisation of Mahalanobis distance to handle infinite-dimensional feature space and singular empirical covariance matrix rigorously. We then combine the variance norm with the path signature, an infinite collection of iterated integrals that provide global features of streams, to propose SigMahaKNN, a method for anomaly detection on (multivariate) streams. We show that SigMahaKNN is invariant to stream reparametrisation, stream concatenation and has a graded discrimination power depending on the truncation level of the path signature. We implement SigMahaKNN as an open-source software, and perform extensive numerical experiments, showing significantly improved anomaly detection on streams compared to isolation forest and local outlier factors in applications ranging from language analysis, hand-writing analysis, ship movement paths analysis and univariate time-series analysis.

Modern neural recording techniques allow neuroscientists to obtain spiking activity of multiple neurons from different brain regions over long time periods, which requires new statistical methods to be developed for understanding structure of the large-scale data. In this paper, we develop a bi-clustering method to cluster the neural spiking activity spatially and temporally, according to their low-dimensional latent structures. The spatial (neuron) clusters are defined by the latent trajectories within each neural population, while the temporal (state) clusters are defined by (populationally) synchronous local linear dynamics shared with different periods. To flexibly extract the bi-clustering structure, we build the model non-parametrically, and develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample the posterior distributions of model parameters. Validating our proposed MCMC algorithm through simulations, we find the method can recover unknown parameters and true bi-clustering structures successfully. We then apply the proposed bi-clustering method to multi-regional neural recordings under different experiment settings, where we find that simultaneously considering latent trajectories and spatial-temporal clustering structures can provide us with a more accurate and interpretable result. Overall, the proposed method provides scientific insights for large-scale (counting) time series with elongated recording periods, and it can potentially have application beyond neuroscience.

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying issue. For example, in military sensor networks, users will want to detect when one or more of the sensors has been compromised, and critically, they will want to know which specific sensors might be compromised. Thus, we first define a formalization of this problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests and propose both non-parametric and parametric statistical tests. For both efficiency and flexibility, we then propose to use a test statistic based on the density model score function (i.e. gradient with respect to the input) -- which can easily compute test statistics for all dimensions in a single forward and backward pass. Any density model could be used for computing the necessary statistics including deep density models such as normalizing flows or autoregressive models. We additionally develop methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data and show results for multiple scenarios using realistic attack models on both simulated and real world data.

A ubiquitous feature of data of our era is their extra-large sizes and dimensions. Analyzing such high-dimensional data poses significant challenges, since the feature dimension is often much larger than the sample size. This thesis introduces robust and computationally efficient methods to address several common challenges associated with high-dimensional data. In my first manuscript, I propose a coherent approach to variable screening that accommodates nonlinear associations. I develop a novel variable screening method that transcends traditional linear assumptions by leveraging mutual information, with an intended application in neuroimaging data. This approach allows for accurate identification of important variables by capturing nonlinear as well as linear relationships between the outcome and covariates. Building on this foundation, I develop new optimization methods for sparse estimation using nonconvex penalties in my second manuscript. These methods address notable challenges in current statistical computing practices, facilitating computationally efficient and robust analyses of complex datasets. The proposed method can be applied to a general class of optimization problems. In my third manuscript, I contribute to robust modeling of high-dimensional correlated observations by developing a mixed-effects model based on Tsallis power-law entropy maximization and discussed the theoretical properties of such distribution. This model surpasses the constraints of conventional Gaussian models by accommodating a broader class of distributions with enhanced robustness to outliers. Additionally, I develop a proximal nonlinear conjugate gradient algorithm that accelerates convergence while maintaining numerical stability, along with rigorous statistical properties for the proposed framework.

Many data have an underlying dependence on spatial location; it may be weather on the Earth, a simulation on a mesh, or a registered image. Yet this feature is rarely taken advantage of, and violates common assumptions made by many neural network layers, such as translation equivariance. Further, many works that do incorporate locality fail to capture fine-grained structure. To address this, we introduce the Spatial Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) layer, a sparsely-gated layer that learns spatial structure in the input domain and routes experts at a fine-grained level to utilize it. We also develop new techniques to train SMoEs, including a self-supervised routing loss and damping expert errors. Finally, we show strong results for SMoEs on numerous tasks, and set new state-of-the-art results for medium-range weather prediction and post-processing ensemble weather forecasts.

We propose a federated averaging Langevin algorithm (FA-LD) for uncertainty quantification and mean predictions with distributed clients. In particular, we generalize beyond normal posterior distributions and consider a general class of models. We develop theoretical guarantees for FA-LD for strongly log-concave distributions with non-i.i.d data and study how the injected noise and the stochastic-gradient noise, the heterogeneity of data, and the varying learning rates affect the convergence. Such an analysis sheds light on the optimal choice of local updates to minimize communication costs. Important to our approach is that the communication efficiency does not deteriorate with the injected noise in the Langevin algorithms. In addition, we examine in our FA-LD algorithm both independent and correlated noise used over different clients. We observe there is a trade-off between the pairs among communication, accuracy, and data privacy. As local devices may become inactive in federated networks, we also show convergence results based on different averaging schemes where only partial device updates are available. In such a case, we discover an additional bias that does not decay to zero.

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

A new prior is proposed for learning representations of high-level concepts of the kind we manipulate with language. This prior can be combined with other priors in order to help disentangling abstract factors from each other. It is inspired by cognitive neuroscience theories of consciousness, seen as a bottleneck through which just a few elements, after having been selected by attention from a broader pool, are then broadcast and condition further processing, both in perception and decision-making. The set of recently selected elements one becomes aware of is seen as forming a low-dimensional conscious state. This conscious state is combining the few concepts constituting a conscious thought, i.e., what one is immediately conscious of at a particular moment. We claim that this architectural and information-processing constraint corresponds to assumptions about the joint distribution between high-level concepts. To the extent that these assumptions are generally true (and the form of natural language seems consistent with them), they can form a useful prior for representation learning. A low-dimensional thought or conscious state is analogous to a sentence: it involves only a few variables and yet can make a statement with very high probability of being true. This is consistent with a joint distribution (over high-level concepts) which has the form of a sparse factor graph, i.e., where the dependencies captured by each factor of the factor graph involve only very few variables while creating a strong dip in the overall energy function. The consciousness prior also makes it natural to map conscious states to natural language utterances or to express classical AI knowledge in a form similar to facts and rules, albeit capturing uncertainty as well as efficient search mechanisms implemented by attention mechanisms.

In recent years, many large directed networks such as online social networks are collected with the help of powerful data engineering and data storage techniques. Analyses of such networks attract significant attention from both the academics and industries. However, analyses of large directed networks are often time-consuming and expensive because the complexities of a lot of graph algorithms are often polynomial with the size of the graph. Hence, sampling algorithms that can generate graphs preserving properties of original graph are of great importance because they can speed up the analysis process. We propose a promising framework to sample directed graphs: Construct a sample graph with linearly rescaled Joint Degree Matrix (JDM) and Degree Correlation Matrix (DCM). Previous work shows that graphs with the same JDM and DCM will have a range of very similar graph properties. We also conduct experiments on real-world datasets to show that the numbers of non-zero entries in JDM and DCM are quite small compared to the number of edges and nodes. Adopting this framework, we propose a novel graph sampling algorithm that can provably preserves in-degree and out-degree distributions, which are two most fundamental properties of a graph. We also prove the upper bound for deviations in the joint degree distribution and degree correlation distribution, which correspond to JDM and DCM. Besides, we prove that the deviations in these distributions are negatively correlated with the sparsity of the JDM and DCM. Considering that these two matrices are always quite sparse, we believe that proposed algorithm will have a better-than-theory performance on real-world large directed networks.

The ability of Variational Autoencoders to learn disentangled representations has made them appealing for practical applications. However, their mean representations, which are generally used for downstream tasks, have recently been shown to be more correlated than their sampled counterpart, on which disentanglement is usually measured. In this paper, we refine this observation through the lens of selective posterior collapse, which states that only a subset of the learned representations, the active variables, is encoding useful information while the rest (the passive variables) is discarded. We first extend the existing definition to multiple data examples and show that active variables are equally disentangled in mean and sampled representations. Based on this extension and the pre-trained models from disentanglement lib, we then isolate the passive variables and show that they are responsible for the discrepancies between mean and sampled representations. Specifically, passive variables exhibit high correlation scores with other variables in mean representations while being fully uncorrelated in sampled ones. We thus conclude that despite what their higher correlation might suggest, mean representations are still good candidates for downstream tasks applications. However, it may be beneficial to remove their passive variables, especially when used with models sensitive to correlated features.

We present network embedding algorithms that capture information about a node from the local distribution over node attributes around it, as observed over random walks following an approach similar to Skip-gram. Observations from neighborhoods of different sizes are either pooled (AE) or encoded distinctly in a multi-scale approach (MUSAE). Capturing attribute-neighborhood relationships over multiple scales is useful for a diverse range of applications, including latent feature identification across disconnected networks with similar attributes. We prove theoretically that matrices of node-feature pointwise mutual information are implicitly factorized by the embeddings. Experiments show that our algorithms are robust, computationally efficient and outperform comparable models on social networks and web graphs.

The concentration of radon in the air has been measured in the 700 m-deep Yangyang underground laboratory between October 2004 and May 2022. The average concentrations in two experimental areas, called A6 and A5, were measured to be 53.4pm0.2 Bq/m3 and 33.5pm0.1 Bq/m3, respectively. The lower value in the A5 area reflects the presence of better temperature control and ventilation. The radon concentrations sampled within the two A5 experimental rooms' air are found to be correlated to the local surface temperature outside of the rooms, with correlation coefficients r = 0.22 and r = 0.70. Therefore, the radon concentrations display a seasonal variation, because the local temperature driven by the overground season influences air ventilation in the experimental areas. A fit on the annual residual concentrations finds that the amplitude occurs each year on August, 31pm6 days.

In this work, we present a variety of novel information-theoretic generalization bounds for learning algorithms, from the supersample setting of Steinke & Zakynthinou (2020)-the setting of the "conditional mutual information" framework. Our development exploits projecting the loss pair (obtained from a training instance and a testing instance) down to a single number and correlating loss values with a Rademacher sequence (and its shifted variants). The presented bounds include square-root bounds, fast-rate bounds, including those based on variance and sharpness, and bounds for interpolating algorithms etc. We show theoretically or empirically that these bounds are tighter than all information-theoretic bounds known to date on the same supersample setting.

Deep neural networks often rely on spurious correlations to make predictions, which hinders generalization beyond training environments. For instance, models that associate cats with bed backgrounds can fail to predict the existence of cats in other environments without beds. Mitigating spurious correlations is crucial in building trustworthy models. However, the existing works lack transparency to offer insights into the mitigation process. In this work, we propose an interpretable framework, Discover and Cure (DISC), to tackle the issue. With human-interpretable concepts, DISC iteratively 1) discovers unstable concepts across different environments as spurious attributes, then 2) intervenes on the training data using the discovered concepts to reduce spurious correlation. Across systematic experiments, DISC provides superior generalization ability and interpretability than the existing approaches. Specifically, it outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on an object recognition task and a skin-lesion classification task by 7.5% and 9.6%, respectively. Additionally, we offer theoretical analysis and guarantees to understand the benefits of models trained by DISC. Code and data are available at https://github.com/Wuyxin/DISC.

We study neural network loss landscapes through the lens of mode connectivity, the observation that minimizers of neural networks retrieved via training on a dataset are connected via simple paths of low loss. Specifically, we ask the following question: are minimizers that rely on different mechanisms for making their predictions connected via simple paths of low loss? We provide a definition of mechanistic similarity as shared invariances to input transformations and demonstrate that lack of linear connectivity between two models implies they use dissimilar mechanisms for making their predictions. Relevant to practice, this result helps us demonstrate that naive fine-tuning on a downstream dataset can fail to alter a model's mechanisms, e.g., fine-tuning can fail to eliminate a model's reliance on spurious attributes. Our analysis also motivates a method for targeted alteration of a model's mechanisms, named connectivity-based fine-tuning (CBFT), which we analyze using several synthetic datasets for the task of reducing a model's reliance on spurious attributes.

The static synaptic connectivity of neuronal circuits stands in direct contrast to the dynamics of their function. As in changing community interactions, different neurons can participate actively in various combinations to effect behaviors at different times. We introduce an unsupervised approach to learn the dynamic affinities between neurons in live, behaving animals, and to reveal which communities form among neurons at different times. The inference occurs in two major steps. First, pairwise non-linear affinities between neuronal traces from brain-wide calcium activity are organized by non-negative tensor factorization (NTF). Each factor specifies which groups of neurons are most likely interacting for an inferred interval in time, and for which animals. Finally, a generative model that allows for weighted community detection is applied to the functional motifs produced by NTF to reveal a dynamic functional connectome. Since time codes the different experimental variables (e.g., application of chemical stimuli), this provides an atlas of neural motifs active during separate stages of an experiment (e.g., stimulus application or spontaneous behaviors). Results from our analysis are experimentally validated, confirming that our method is able to robustly predict causal interactions between neurons to generate behavior. Code is available at https://github.com/dyballa/dynamic-connectomes.

The lack of self-correcting codes hiders the development of boson sampling to be large-scale and robust. Therefore, it is important to know the noise levels in order to cautiously demonstrate the quantum computational advantage or realize certain tasks. Based on those statistical benchmark methods such as the correlators and the clouds, which are initially proposed to discriminate boson sampling and other mockups, we quantificationally evaluate noises of photon partial distinguishability and photon loss compensated by dark counts. This is feasible owing to the fact that the output distribution unbalances are suppressed by noises, which are actually results of multi-photon interferences. This is why the evaluation performance is better when high order correlators or corresponding clouds are employed. Our results indicate that the statistical benchmark methods can also work in the task of evaluating noises of boson sampling.

Interpreting the inner function of neural networks is crucial for the trustworthy development and deployment of these black-box models. Prior interpretability methods focus on correlation-based measures to attribute model decisions to individual examples. However, these measures are susceptible to noise and spurious correlations encoded in the model during the training phase (e.g., biased inputs, model overfitting, or misspecification). Moreover, this process has proven to result in noisy and unstable attributions that prevent any transparent understanding of the model's behavior. In this paper, we develop a robust interventional-based method grounded by causal analysis to capture cause-effect mechanisms in pre-trained neural networks and their relation to the prediction. Our novel approach relies on path interventions to infer the causal mechanisms within hidden layers and isolate relevant and necessary information (to model prediction), avoiding noisy ones. The result is task-specific causal explanatory graphs that can audit model behavior and express the actual causes underlying its performance. We apply our method to vision models trained on classification tasks. On image classification tasks, we provide extensive quantitative experiments to show that our approach can capture more stable and faithful explanations than standard attribution-based methods. Furthermore, the underlying causal graphs reveal the neural interactions in the model, making it a valuable tool in other applications (e.g., model repair).

In this paper, it is shown that if a sequence of resistance metric spaces equipped with measures converges with respect to the local Gromov-Hausdorff-vague topology, and certain non-explosion and metric-entropy conditions are satisfied, then the associated stochastic processes and their local times also converge. The metric-entropy condition can be checked by applying volume estimates of balls. Whilst similar results have been proved previously, the approach of this article is more widely applicable. Indeed, we recover various known conclusions for scaling limits of some deterministic self-similar fractal graphs, critical Galton-Watson trees, the critical Erdos-R\'enyi random graph and the configuration model (in the latter two cases, we prove for the first time the convergence of the models with respect to the resistance metric and also, for the configuration model, we overcome an error in the existing proof of local time convergence). Moreover, we derive new ones for scaling limits of uniform spanning trees and random recursive fractals. The metric-entropy condition also implies convergence of associated Gaussian processes.

Deep neural networks tend to exhibit a bias toward low-rank solutions during training, implicitly learning low-dimensional feature representations. This paper investigates how deep multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) encode these feature manifolds and connects this behavior to the Information Bottleneck (IB) theory. We introduce the concept of local rank as a measure of feature manifold dimensionality and demonstrate, both theoretically and empirically, that this rank decreases during the final phase of training. We argue that networks that reduce the rank of their learned representations also compress mutual information between inputs and intermediate layers. This work bridges the gap between feature manifold rank and information compression, offering new insights into the interplay between information bottlenecks and representation learning.

We consider dense, associative neural-networks trained with no supervision and we investigate their computational capabilities analytically, via a statistical-mechanics approach, and numerically, via Monte Carlo simulations. In particular, we obtain a phase diagram summarizing their performance as a function of the control parameters such as the quality and quantity of the training dataset and the network storage, valid in the limit of large network size and structureless datasets. Moreover, we establish a bridge between macroscopic observables standardly used in statistical mechanics and loss functions typically used in the machine learning. As technical remarks, from the analytic side, we implement large deviations and stability analysis within Guerra's interpolation to tackle the not-Gaussian distributions involved in the post-synaptic potentials while, from the computational counterpart, we insert Plefka approximation in the Monte Carlo scheme, to speed up the evaluation of the synaptic tensors, overall obtaining a novel and broad approach to investigate neural networks in general.

Gradients can be employed for sensitivity analysis. Here, we leverage the advantages of the Loss Landscape to comprehend which independent variables impact the dependent variable. We seek to grasp the loss landscape by utilizing first, second, and third derivatives through automatic differentiation. we know that Spearman's rank correlation coefficient can detect the monotonic relationship between two variables. However, I have found that second-order gradients, with certain configurations and parameters, provide information that can be visualized similarly to Spearman results, In this approach, we incorporate a loss function with an activation function, resulting in a non-linear pattern. Each exploration of the loss landscape through retraining yields new valuable information. Furthermore, the first and third derivatives are also beneficial, as they indicate the extent to which independent variables influence the dependent variable.

This paper investigates scaling laws for local SGD in LLM training, a distributed optimization algorithm that facilitates training on loosely connected devices. Through extensive experiments, we show that local SGD achieves competitive results compared to conventional methods, given equivalent model parameters, datasets, and computational resources. Furthermore, we explore the application of local SGD in various practical scenarios, including multi-cluster setups and edge computing environments. Our findings elucidate the necessary conditions for effective multi-cluster LLM training and examine the potential and limitations of leveraging edge computing resources in the LLM training process. This demonstrates its viability as an alternative to single large-cluster training.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Spurious correlations in the data, where multiple cues are predictive of the target labels, often lead to a phenomenon known as simplicity bias, where a model relies on erroneous, easy-to-learn cues while ignoring reliable ones. In this work, we propose an ensemble diversification framework exploiting Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs) for shortcut bias mitigation. We show that at particular training intervals, DPMs can generate images with novel feature combinations, even when trained on images displaying correlated input features. We leverage this crucial property to generate synthetic counterfactuals to increase model diversity via ensemble disagreement. We show that DPM-guided diversification is sufficient to remove dependence on primary shortcut cues, without a need for additional supervised signals. We further empirically quantify its efficacy on several diversification objectives, and finally show improved generalization and diversification performance on par with prior work that relies on auxiliary data collection.

We introduce Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM), a learning paradigm to estimate invariant correlations across multiple training distributions. To achieve this goal, IRM learns a data representation such that the optimal classifier, on top of that data representation, matches for all training distributions. Through theory and experiments, we show how the invariances learned by IRM relate to the causal structures governing the data and enable out-of-distribution generalization.

We introduce a hierarchical filtering procedure for generative models of sequences on trees, enabling control over the range of positional correlations in the data. Leveraging this controlled setting, we provide evidence that vanilla encoder-only transformer architectures can implement the optimal Belief Propagation algorithm on both root classification and masked language modeling tasks. Correlations at larger distances corresponding to increasing layers of the hierarchy are sequentially included as the network is trained. We analyze how the transformer layers succeed by focusing on attention maps from models trained with varying degrees of filtering. These attention maps show clear evidence for iterative hierarchical reconstruction of correlations, and we can relate these observations to a plausible implementation of the exact inference algorithm for the network sizes considered.

We propose a novel random walk-based algorithm for unbiased estimation of arbitrary functions of a weighted adjacency matrix, coined universal graph random features (u-GRFs). This includes many of the most popular examples of kernels defined on the nodes of a graph. Our algorithm enjoys subquadratic time complexity with respect to the number of nodes, overcoming the notoriously prohibitive cubic scaling of exact graph kernel evaluation. It can also be trivially distributed across machines, permitting learning on much larger networks. At the heart of the algorithm is a modulation function which upweights or downweights the contribution from different random walks depending on their lengths. We show that by parameterising it with a neural network we can obtain u-GRFs that give higher-quality kernel estimates or perform efficient, scalable kernel learning. We provide robust theoretical analysis and support our findings with experiments including pointwise estimation of fixed graph kernels, solving non-homogeneous graph ordinary differential equations, node clustering and kernel regression on triangular meshes.

A basic question within the emerging field of mechanistic interpretability is the degree to which neural networks learn the same underlying mechanisms. In other words, are neural mechanisms universal across different models? In this work, we study the universality of individual neurons across GPT2 models trained from different initial random seeds, motivated by the hypothesis that universal neurons are likely to be interpretable. In particular, we compute pairwise correlations of neuron activations over 100 million tokens for every neuron pair across five different seeds and find that 1-5\% of neurons are universal, that is, pairs of neurons which consistently activate on the same inputs. We then study these universal neurons in detail, finding that they usually have clear interpretations and taxonomize them into a small number of neuron families. We conclude by studying patterns in neuron weights to establish several universal functional roles of neurons in simple circuits: deactivating attention heads, changing the entropy of the next token distribution, and predicting the next token to (not) be within a particular set.

Advances in hardware and language model architecture have spurred a revolution in natural language generation. However, autoregressive models compute probability distributions over next-token choices, and sampling from these distributions, known as decoding, has received significantly less attention than other design choices. Existing decoding strategies are largely based on heuristics, resulting in methods that are hard to apply or improve in a principled manner. We develop the theory of decoding strategies for language models by expressing popular decoding algorithms as equilibrium states in the language of ergodic theory and stating the functions they optimize. Using this, we analyze the effect of the local normalization step of top-k, nucleus, and temperature sampling, used to make probabilities sum to one. We argue that local normalization distortion is a fundamental defect of decoding strategies and quantify the size of this distortion and its effect on mathematical proxies for the quality and diversity of generated text. Contrary to the prevailing explanation, we argue that the major cause of the under-performance of top-k sampling relative to nucleus sampling is local normalization distortion. This yields conclusions for the future design of decoding algorithms and the detection of machine-generated text.