Daily Papers

With the growing prominence of antibody-based therapeutics, antibody engineering has gained increasing attention as a critical area of research and development. Recent progress in transformer-based protein large language models (LLMs) has demonstrated promising applications in protein sequence design and structural prediction. Moreover, the availability of large-scale antibody datasets such as the Observed Antibody Space (OAS) database has opened new avenues for the development of LLMs specialized for processing antibody sequences. Among these, RoBERTa has demonstrated improved performance relative to BERT, while maintaining a smaller parameter count (125M) compared to the BERT-based protein model, ProtBERT (420M). This reduced model size enables more efficient deployment in antibody-related applications. However, despite the numerous advantages of the RoBERTa architecture, antibody-specific foundational models built upon it have remained inaccessible to the research community. In this study, we introduce Ab-RoBERTa, a RoBERTa-based antibody-specific LLM, which is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/mogam-ai/Ab-RoBERTa. This resource is intended to support a wide range of antibody-related research applications including paratope prediction or humanness assessment.

In the field of antibody engineering, an essential task is to design a novel antibody whose paratopes bind to a specific antigen with correct epitopes. Understanding antibody structure and its paratope can facilitate a mechanistic understanding of its function. Therefore, antibody structure prediction from its sequence alone has always been a highly valuable problem for de novo antibody design. AlphaFold2, a breakthrough in the field of structural biology, provides a solution to predict protein structure based on protein sequences and computationally expensive coevolutionary multiple sequence alignments (MSAs). However, the computational efficiency and undesirable prediction accuracy of antibodies, especially on the complementarity-determining regions (CDRs) of antibodies limit their applications in the industrially high-throughput drug design. To learn an informative representation of antibodies, we employed a deep antibody language model (ALM) on curated sequences from the observed antibody space database via a transformer model. We also developed a novel model named xTrimoABFold to predict antibody structure from antibody sequence based on the pretrained ALM as well as efficient evoformers and structural modules. The model was trained end-to-end on the antibody structures in PDB by minimizing the ensemble loss of domain-specific focal loss on CDR and the frame-aligned point loss. xTrimoABFold outperforms AlphaFold2 and other protein language model based SOTAs, e.g., OmegaFold, HelixFold-Single, and IgFold with a large significant margin (30+\% improvement on RMSD) while performing 151 times faster than AlphaFold2. To the best of our knowledge, xTrimoABFold achieved state-of-the-art antibody structure prediction. Its improvement in both accuracy and efficiency makes it a valuable tool for de novo antibody design and could make further improvements in immuno-theory.

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data points one at a time. Here we study the problem of distribution-free predictive inference for a batch of multiple test points, aiming to construct prediction sets for functions -- such as the mean or median -- of any number of unobserved test datapoints. This setting includes constructing simultaneous prediction sets with a high probability of coverage, and selecting datapoints satisfying a specified condition while controlling the number of false claims. For the general task of predictive inference on a function of a batch of test points, we introduce a methodology called batch predictive inference (batch PI), and provide a distribution-free coverage guarantee under exchangeability of the calibration and test data. Batch PI requires the quantiles of a rank ordering function defined on certain subsets of ranks. While computing these quantiles is NP-hard in general, we show that it can be done efficiently in many cases of interest, most notably for batch score functions with a compositional structure -- which includes examples of interest such as the mean -- via a dynamic programming algorithm that we develop. Batch PI has advantages over naive approaches (such as partitioning the calibration data or directly extending conformal prediction) in many settings, as it can deliver informative prediction sets even using small calibration sample sizes. We illustrate that our procedures provide informative inference across the use cases mentioned above, through experiments on both simulated data and a drug-target interaction dataset.

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

This paper introduces a public dataset of 1.4 million procedurally-generated bicycle designs represented parametrically, as JSON files, and as rasterized images. The dataset is created through the use of a rendering engine which harnesses the BikeCAD software to generate vector graphics from parametric designs. This rendering engine is discussed in the paper and also released publicly alongside the dataset. Though this dataset has numerous applications, a principal motivation is the need to train cross-modal predictive models between parametric and image-based design representations. For example, we demonstrate that a predictive model can be trained to accurately estimate Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) embeddings from a parametric representation directly. This allows similarity relations to be established between parametric bicycle designs and text strings or reference images. Trained predictive models are also made public. The dataset joins the BIKED dataset family which includes thousands of mixed-representation human-designed bicycle models and several datasets quantifying design performance. The code and dataset can be found at: https://github.com/Lyleregenwetter/BIKED_multimodal/tree/main

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

We study the problem of learning optimal policy from a set of discrete treatment options using observational data. We propose a piecewise linear neural network model that can balance strong prescriptive performance and interpretability, which we refer to as the prescriptive ReLU network, or P-ReLU. We show analytically that this model (i) partitions the input space into disjoint polyhedra, where all instances that belong to the same partition receive the same treatment, and (ii) can be converted into an equivalent prescriptive tree with hyperplane splits for interpretability. We demonstrate the flexibility of the P-ReLU network as constraints can be easily incorporated with minor modifications to the architecture. Through experiments, we validate the superior prescriptive accuracy of P-ReLU against competing benchmarks. Lastly, we present examples of interpretable prescriptive trees extracted from trained P-ReLUs using a real-world dataset, for both the unconstrained and constrained scenarios.

We present Semantify: a self-supervised method that utilizes the semantic power of CLIP language-vision foundation model to simplify the control of 3D morphable models. Given a parametric model, training data is created by randomly sampling the model's parameters, creating various shapes and rendering them. The similarity between the output images and a set of word descriptors is calculated in CLIP's latent space. Our key idea is first to choose a small set of semantically meaningful and disentangled descriptors that characterize the 3DMM, and then learn a non-linear mapping from scores across this set to the parametric coefficients of the given 3DMM. The non-linear mapping is defined by training a neural network without a human-in-the-loop. We present results on numerous 3DMMs: body shape models, face shape and expression models, as well as animal shapes. We demonstrate how our method defines a simple slider interface for intuitive modeling, and show how the mapping can be used to instantly fit a 3D parametric body shape to in-the-wild images.

We challenge a common assumption underlying most supervised deep learning: that a model makes a prediction depending only on its parameters and the features of a single input. To this end, we introduce a general-purpose deep learning architecture that takes as input the entire dataset instead of processing one datapoint at a time. Our approach uses self-attention to reason about relationships between datapoints explicitly, which can be seen as realizing non-parametric models using parametric attention mechanisms. However, unlike conventional non-parametric models, we let the model learn end-to-end from the data how to make use of other datapoints for prediction. Empirically, our models solve cross-datapoint lookup and complex reasoning tasks unsolvable by traditional deep learning models. We show highly competitive results on tabular data, early results on CIFAR-10, and give insight into how the model makes use of the interactions between points.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

As language models scale up, it becomes increasingly expensive to verify research ideas because conclusions on small models do not trivially transfer to large ones. A possible solution is to establish a generic system that directly predicts some metrics for large models solely based on the results and hyperparameters from small models. Existing methods based on scaling laws require hyperparameter search on the largest models, which is impractical with limited resources. We address this issue by presenting our discoveries indicating that Maximal Update parametrization (Mup) enables accurate fitting of scaling laws for hyperparameters close to common loss basins, without any search. Thus, different models can be directly compared on large scales with loss prediction even before the training starts. We propose a new paradigm as a first step towards reliable academic research for any model scale without heavy computation. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/cofe-ai/Mu-scaling.

AlphaFold predicts protein structures from the amino acid sequence at or near experimental resolution, solving the 50-year-old protein folding challenge, leading to progress by transforming large-scale genomics data into protein structures. AlphaFold will also greatly change the scientific research model from low-throughput to high-throughput manner. The AlphaFold framework is a mixture of two types of workloads: MSA construction based on CPUs and model inference on GPUs. The first CPU stage dominates the overall runtime, taking hours for a single protein due to the large database sizes and I/O bottlenecks. However, GPUs in this CPU stage remain idle, resulting in low GPU utilization and restricting the capacity of large-scale structure predictions. Therefore, we proposed ParaFold, an open-source parallel version of AlphaFold for high throughput protein structure predictions. ParaFold separates the CPU and GPU parts to enable large-scale structure predictions. ParaFold also effectively reduces the CPU and GPU runtime with two optimizations without compromising the quality of prediction results: using multi-threaded parallelism on CPUs and using optimized JAX compilation on GPUs. We evaluated ParaFold with three datasets of different size and protein lengths. We evaluated the accuracy and efficiency of optimizations on CPUs and GPUs, and showed the large-scale prediction capability by running ParaFold inferences of 19,704 small proteins in five hours on one NVIDIA DGX-2. Using the JAX compile optimization, ParaFold attained a 13.8X average speedup over AlphaFold. ParaFold offers a rapid and effective approach for high-throughput structure predictions, leveraging the predictive power by running on supercomputers, with shorter time, and at a lower cost. The development of ParaFold will greatly speed up high-throughput studies and render the protein "structure-omics" feasible.

We propose ParaSCI, the first large-scale paraphrase dataset in the scientific field, including 33,981 paraphrase pairs from ACL (ParaSCI-ACL) and 316,063 pairs from arXiv (ParaSCI-arXiv). Digging into characteristics and common patterns of scientific papers, we construct this dataset though intra-paper and inter-paper methods, such as collecting citations to the same paper or aggregating definitions by scientific terms. To take advantage of sentences paraphrased partially, we put up PDBERT as a general paraphrase discovering method. The major advantages of paraphrases in ParaSCI lie in the prominent length and textual diversity, which is complementary to existing paraphrase datasets. ParaSCI obtains satisfactory results on human evaluation and downstream tasks, especially long paraphrase generation.

The task of determining whether two texts are paraphrases has long been a challenge in NLP. However, the prevailing notion of paraphrase is often quite simplistic, offering only a limited view of the vast spectrum of paraphrase phenomena. Indeed, we find that evaluating models in a paraphrase dataset can leave uncertainty about their true semantic understanding. To alleviate this, we release paraphrasus, a benchmark designed for multi-dimensional assessment of paraphrase detection models and finer model selection. We find that paraphrase detection models under a fine-grained evaluation lens exhibit trade-offs that cannot be captured through a single classification dataset.

Linear position interpolation helps pre-trained models using rotary position embeddings (RoPE) to extrapolate to longer sequence lengths. We propose using linear position interpolation to extend the extrapolation range of models using Attention with Linear Biases (ALiBi). We find position interpolation significantly improves extrapolation capability on upstream language modelling and downstream summarization and retrieval tasks.

We present PI3DETR, an end-to-end framework that directly predicts 3D parametric curve instances from raw point clouds, avoiding the intermediate representations and multi-stage processing common in prior work. Extending 3DETR, our model introduces a geometry-aware matching strategy and specialized loss functions that enable unified detection of differently parameterized curve types, including cubic B\'ezier curves, line segments, circles, and arcs, in a single forward pass. Optional post-processing steps further refine predictions without adding complexity. This streamlined design improves robustness to noise and varying sampling densities, addressing critical challenges in real world LiDAR and 3D sensing scenarios. PI3DETR sets a new state-of-the-art on the ABC dataset and generalizes effectively to real sensor data, offering a simple yet powerful solution for 3D edge and curve estimation.

Bayesian models of cognition have gained considerable traction in computational neuroscience and psychiatry. Their scopes are now expected to expand rapidly to artificial intelligence, providing general inference frameworks to support embodied, adaptable, and energy-efficient autonomous agents. A central theory in this domain is predictive coding, which posits that learning and behaviour are driven by hierarchical probabilistic inferences about the causes of sensory inputs. Biological realism constrains these networks to rely on simple local computations in the form of precision-weighted predictions and prediction errors. This can make this framework highly efficient, but its implementation comes with unique challenges on the software development side. Embedding such models in standard neural network libraries often becomes limiting, as these libraries' compilation and differentiation backends can force a conceptual separation between optimization algorithms and the systems being optimized. This critically departs from other biological principles such as self-monitoring, self-organisation, cellular growth and functional plasticity. In this paper, we introduce pyhgf: a Python package backed by JAX and Rust for creating, manipulating and sampling dynamic networks for predictive coding. We improve over other frameworks by enclosing the network components as transparent, modular and malleable variables in the message-passing steps. The resulting graphs can implement arbitrary computational complexities as beliefs propagation. But the transparency of core variables can also translate into inference processes that leverage self-organisation principles, and express structure learning, meta-learning or causal discovery as the consequence of network structural adaptation to surprising inputs. The code, tutorials and documentation are hosted at: https://github.com/ilabcode/pyhgf.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

Employing paraphrasing tools to conceal plagiarized text is a severe threat to academic integrity. To enable the detection of machine-paraphrased text, we evaluate the effectiveness of five pre-trained word embedding models combined with machine-learning classifiers and eight state-of-the-art neural language models. We analyzed preprints of research papers, graduation theses, and Wikipedia articles, which we paraphrased using different configurations of the tools SpinBot and SpinnerChief. The best-performing technique, Longformer, achieved an average F1 score of 81.0% (F1=99.7% for SpinBot and F1=71.6% for SpinnerChief cases), while human evaluators achieved F1=78.4% for SpinBot and F1=65.6% for SpinnerChief cases. We show that the automated classification alleviates shortcomings of widely-used text-matching systems, such as Turnitin and PlagScan. To facilitate future research, all data, code, and two web applications showcasing our contributions are openly available at https://github.com/jpwahle/iconf22-paraphrase.

Human trajectory prediction is a practical task of predicting the future positions of pedestrians on the road, which typically covers all temporal ranges from short-term to long-term within a trajectory. However, existing works attempt to address the entire trajectory prediction with a singular, uniform training paradigm, neglecting the distinction between short-term and long-term dynamics in human trajectories. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a novel Progressive Pretext Task learning (PPT) framework, which progressively enhances the model's capacity of capturing short-term dynamics and long-term dependencies for the final entire trajectory prediction. Specifically, we elaborately design three stages of training tasks in the PPT framework. In the first stage, the model learns to comprehend the short-term dynamics through a stepwise next-position prediction task. In the second stage, the model is further enhanced to understand long-term dependencies through a destination prediction task. In the final stage, the model aims to address the entire future trajectory task by taking full advantage of the knowledge from previous stages. To alleviate the knowledge forgetting, we further apply a cross-task knowledge distillation. Additionally, we design a Transformer-based trajectory predictor, which is able to achieve highly efficient two-step reasoning by integrating a destination-driven prediction strategy and a group of learnable prompt embeddings. Extensive experiments on popular benchmarks have demonstrated that our proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/iSEE-Laboratory/PPT.

Paraphrases are texts that convey the same meaning while using different words or sentence structures. It can be used as an automatic data augmentation tool for many Natural Language Processing tasks, especially when dealing with low-resource languages, where data shortage is a significant problem. To generate a paraphrase in multilingual settings, previous studies have leveraged the knowledge from the machine translation field, i.e., forming a paraphrase through zero-shot machine translation in the same language. Despite good performance on human evaluation, those methods still require parallel translation datasets, thus making them inapplicable to languages that do not have parallel corpora. To mitigate that problem, we proposed the first unsupervised multilingual paraphrasing model, LAMPAT (Low-rank Adaptation for Multilingual Paraphrasing using Adversarial Training), by which monolingual dataset is sufficient enough to generate a human-like and diverse sentence. Throughout the experiments, we found out that our method not only works well for English but can generalize on unseen languages as well. Data and code are available at https://github.com/VinAIResearch/LAMPAT.

We describe PARANMT-50M, a dataset of more than 50 million English-English sentential paraphrase pairs. We generated the pairs automatically by using neural machine translation to translate the non-English side of a large parallel corpus, following Wieting et al. (2017). Our hope is that ParaNMT-50M can be a valuable resource for paraphrase generation and can provide a rich source of semantic knowledge to improve downstream natural language understanding tasks. To show its utility, we use ParaNMT-50M to train paraphrastic sentence embeddings that outperform all supervised systems on every SemEval semantic textual similarity competition, in addition to showing how it can be used for paraphrase generation.

We extend our previous work on Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for multi-label text classification and present a novel approach for addressing the computational inefficiency of the Label Powerset (LP) ICP, arrising when dealing with a high number of unique labels. We present experimental results using the original and the proposed efficient LP-ICP on two English and one Czech language data-sets. Specifically, we apply the LP-ICP on three deep Artificial Neural Network (ANN) classifiers of two types: one based on contextualised (bert) and two on non-contextualised (word2vec) word-embeddings. In the LP-ICP setting we assign nonconformity scores to label-sets from which the corresponding p-values and prediction-sets are determined. Our approach deals with the increased computational burden of LP by eliminating from consideration a significant number of label-sets that will surely have p-values below the specified significance level. This reduces dramatically the computational complexity of the approach while fully respecting the standard CP guarantees. Our experimental results show that the contextualised-based classifier surpasses the non-contextualised-based ones and obtains state-of-the-art performance for all data-sets examined. The good performance of the underlying classifiers is carried on to their ICP counterparts without any significant accuracy loss, but with the added benefits of ICP, i.e. the confidence information encapsulated in the prediction sets. We experimentally demonstrate that the resulting prediction sets can be tight enough to be practically useful even though the set of all possible label-sets contains more than 1e+16 combinations. Additionally, the empirical error rates of the obtained prediction-sets confirm that our outputs are well-calibrated.

This paper presents a Patherea, a framework for point-based cell detection and classification that provides a complete solution for developing and evaluating state-of-the-art approaches. We introduce a large-scale dataset collected to directly replicate a clinical workflow for Ki-67 proliferation index estimation and use it to develop an efficient point-based approach that directly predicts point-based predictions, without the need for intermediate representations. The proposed approach effectively utilizes point proposal candidates with the hybrid Hungarian matching strategy and a flexible architecture that enables the usage of various backbones and (pre)training strategies. We report state-of-the-art results on existing public datasets - Lizard, BRCA-M2C, BCData, and the newly proposed Patherea dataset. We show that the performance on existing public datasets is saturated and that the newly proposed Patherea dataset represents a significantly harder challenge for the recently proposed approaches. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of recently proposed pathology foundational models that our proposed approach can natively utilize and benefit from. We also revisit the evaluation protocol that is used in the broader field of cell detection and classification and identify the erroneous calculation of performance metrics. Patherea provides a benchmarking utility that addresses the identified issues and enables a fair comparison of different approaches. The dataset and the code will be publicly released upon acceptance.

Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable. However, even small adversarial perturbations during the inference can violate the exchangeability assumption, challenge the coverage guarantees, and result in a subsequent decline in empirical coverage. In this work, we propose a certifiably robust learning-reasoning conformal prediction framework (COLEP) via probabilistic circuits, which comprise a data-driven learning component that trains statistical models to learn different semantic concepts, and a reasoning component that encodes knowledge and characterizes the relationships among the trained models for logic reasoning. To achieve exact and efficient reasoning, we employ probabilistic circuits (PCs) within the reasoning component. Theoretically, we provide end-to-end certification of prediction coverage for COLEP in the presence of bounded adversarial perturbations. We also provide certified coverage considering the finite size of the calibration set. Furthermore, we prove that COLEP achieves higher prediction coverage and accuracy over a single model as long as the utilities of knowledge models are non-trivial. Empirically, we show the validity and tightness of our certified coverage, demonstrating the robust conformal prediction of COLEP on various datasets, including GTSRB, CIFAR10, and AwA2. We show that COLEP achieves up to 12% improvement in certified coverage on GTSRB, 9% on CIFAR-10, and 14% on AwA2.

In this paper, we introduce PredBench, a benchmark tailored for the holistic evaluation of spatio-temporal prediction networks. Despite significant progress in this field, there remains a lack of a standardized framework for a detailed and comparative analysis of various prediction network architectures. PredBench addresses this gap by conducting large-scale experiments, upholding standardized and appropriate experimental settings, and implementing multi-dimensional evaluations. This benchmark integrates 12 widely adopted methods with 15 diverse datasets across multiple application domains, offering extensive evaluation of contemporary spatio-temporal prediction networks. Through meticulous calibration of prediction settings across various applications, PredBench ensures evaluations relevant to their intended use and enables fair comparisons. Moreover, its multi-dimensional evaluation framework broadens the analysis with a comprehensive set of metrics, providing deep insights into the capabilities of models. The findings from our research offer strategic directions for future developments in the field. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/OpenEarthLab/PredBench.

Geometry problem solving has attracted much attention in the NLP community recently. The task is challenging as it requires abstract problem understanding and symbolic reasoning with axiomatic knowledge. However, current datasets are either small in scale or not publicly available. Thus, we construct a new large-scale benchmark, Geometry3K, consisting of 3,002 geometry problems with dense annotation in formal language. We further propose a novel geometry solving approach with formal language and symbolic reasoning, called Interpretable Geometry Problem Solver (Inter-GPS). Inter-GPS first parses the problem text and diagram into formal language automatically via rule-based text parsing and neural object detecting, respectively. Unlike implicit learning in existing methods, Inter-GPS incorporates theorem knowledge as conditional rules and performs symbolic reasoning step by step. Also, a theorem predictor is designed to infer the theorem application sequence fed to the symbolic solver for the more efficient and reasonable searching path. Extensive experiments on the Geometry3K and GEOS datasets demonstrate that Inter-GPS achieves significant improvements over existing methods. The project with code and data is available at https://lupantech.github.io/inter-gps.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Recently, large language models such as GPT-2 have shown themselves to be extremely adept at text generation and have also been able to achieve high-quality results in many downstream NLP tasks such as text classification, sentiment analysis and question answering with the aid of fine-tuning. We present a useful technique for using a large language model to perform the task of paraphrasing on a variety of texts and subjects. Our approach is demonstrated to be capable of generating paraphrases not only at a sentence level but also for longer spans of text such as paragraphs without needing to break the text into smaller chunks.

The Maximal Update Parametrization (muP) aims to make the optimal hyperparameters (HPs) of a model independent of its size, allowing them to be swept using a cheap proxy model rather than the full-size target model. We present a new scheme, u-muP, which improves upon muP by combining it with Unit Scaling, a method for designing models that makes them easy to train in low-precision. The two techniques have a natural affinity: muP ensures that the scale of activations is independent of model size, and Unit Scaling ensures that activations, weights and gradients begin training with a scale of one. This synthesis opens the door to a simpler scheme, whose default values are near-optimal. This in turn facilitates a more efficient sweeping strategy, with u-muP models reaching a lower loss than comparable muP models and working out-of-the-box in FP8.

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

The mainstream of the existing approaches for video prediction builds up their models based on a Single-In-Single-Out (SISO) architecture, which takes the current frame as input to predict the next frame in a recursive manner. This way often leads to severe performance degradation when they try to extrapolate a longer period of future, thus limiting the practical use of the prediction model. Alternatively, a Multi-In-Multi-Out (MIMO) architecture that outputs all the future frames at one shot naturally breaks the recursive manner and therefore prevents error accumulation. However, only a few MIMO models for video prediction are proposed and they only achieve inferior performance due to the date. The real strength of the MIMO model in this area is not well noticed and is largely under-explored. Motivated by that, we conduct a comprehensive investigation in this paper to thoroughly exploit how far a simple MIMO architecture can go. Surprisingly, our empirical studies reveal that a simple MIMO model can outperform the state-of-the-art work with a large margin much more than expected, especially in dealing with longterm error accumulation. After exploring a number of ways and designs, we propose a new MIMO architecture based on extending the pure Transformer with local spatio-temporal blocks and a new multi-output decoder, namely MIMO-VP, to establish a new standard in video prediction. We evaluate our model in four highly competitive benchmarks (Moving MNIST, Human3.6M, Weather, KITTI). Extensive experiments show that our model wins 1st place on all the benchmarks with remarkable performance gains and surpasses the best SISO model in all aspects including efficiency, quantity, and quality. We believe our model can serve as a new baseline to facilitate the future research of video prediction tasks. The code will be released.

When learning simulations for modeling physical phenomena in industrial designs, geometrical variabilities are of prime interest. While classical regression techniques prove effective for parameterized geometries, practical scenarios often involve the absence of shape parametrization during the inference stage, leaving us with only mesh discretizations as available data. Learning simulations from such mesh-based representations poses significant challenges, with recent advances relying heavily on deep graph neural networks to overcome the limitations of conventional machine learning approaches. Despite their promising results, graph neural networks exhibit certain drawbacks, including their dependency on extensive datasets and limitations in providing built-in predictive uncertainties or handling large meshes. In this work, we propose a machine learning method that do not rely on graph neural networks. Complex geometrical shapes and variations with fixed topology are dealt with using well-known mesh morphing onto a common support, combined with classical dimensionality reduction techniques and Gaussian processes. The proposed methodology can easily deal with large meshes without the need for explicit shape parameterization and provides crucial predictive uncertainties, which are essential for informed decision-making. In the considered numerical experiments, the proposed method is competitive with respect to existing graph neural networks, regarding training efficiency and accuracy of the predictions.

We propose a novel approach to conformal prediction for generative language models (LMs). Standard conformal prediction produces prediction sets -- in place of single predictions -- that have rigorous, statistical performance guarantees. LM responses are typically sampled from the model's predicted distribution over the large, combinatorial output space of natural language. Translating this process to conformal prediction, we calibrate a stopping rule for sampling different outputs from the LM that get added to a growing set of candidates until we are confident that the output set is sufficient. Since some samples may be low-quality, we also simultaneously calibrate and apply a rejection rule for removing candidates from the output set to reduce noise. Similar to conformal prediction, we prove that the sampled set returned by our procedure contains at least one acceptable answer with high probability, while still being empirically precise (i.e., small) on average. Furthermore, within this set of candidate responses, we show that we can also accurately identify subsets of individual components -- such as phrases or sentences -- that are each independently correct (e.g., that are not "hallucinations"), again with statistical guarantees. We demonstrate the promise of our approach on multiple tasks in open-domain question answering, text summarization, and radiology report generation using different LM variants.

We present Multi-HMR, a strong sigle-shot model for multi-person 3D human mesh recovery from a single RGB image. Predictions encompass the whole body, i.e., including hands and facial expressions, using the SMPL-X parametric model and 3D location in the camera coordinate system. Our model detects people by predicting coarse 2D heatmaps of person locations, using features produced by a standard Vision Transformer (ViT) backbone. It then predicts their whole-body pose, shape and 3D location using a new cross-attention module called the Human Prediction Head (HPH), with one query attending to the entire set of features for each detected person. As direct prediction of fine-grained hands and facial poses in a single shot, i.e., without relying on explicit crops around body parts, is hard to learn from existing data, we introduce CUFFS, the Close-Up Frames of Full-Body Subjects dataset, containing humans close to the camera with diverse hand poses. We show that incorporating it into the training data further enhances predictions, particularly for hands. Multi-HMR also optionally accounts for camera intrinsics, if available, by encoding camera ray directions for each image token. This simple design achieves strong performance on whole-body and body-only benchmarks simultaneously: a ViT-S backbone on 448{times}448 images already yields a fast and competitive model, while larger models and higher resolutions obtain state-of-the-art results.

We introduce TabRepo, a new dataset of tabular model evaluations and predictions. TabRepo contains the predictions and metrics of 1310 models evaluated on 200 classification and regression datasets. We illustrate the benefit of our dataset in multiple ways. First, we show that it allows to perform analysis such as comparing Hyperparameter Optimization against current AutoML systems while also considering ensembling at marginal cost by using precomputed model predictions. Second, we show that our dataset can be readily leveraged to perform transfer-learning. In particular, we show that applying standard transfer-learning techniques allows to outperform current state-of-the-art tabular systems in accuracy, runtime and latency.

Vision-Language Pre-Training (VLP) has shown promising capabilities to align image and text pairs, facilitating a broad variety of cross-modal learning tasks. However, we observe that VLP models often lack the visual grounding/localization capability which is critical for many downstream tasks such as visual reasoning. In this work, we propose a novel Position-guided Text Prompt (PTP) paradigm to enhance the visual grounding ability of cross-modal models trained with VLP. Specifically, in the VLP phase, PTP divides the image into Ntimes N blocks, and identifies the objects in each block through the widely used object detector in VLP. It then reformulates the visual grounding task into a fill-in-the-blank problem given a PTP by encouraging the model to predict the objects in the given blocks or regress the blocks of a given object, e.g. filling `P" or ``O" in aPTP ``The block P has a O". This mechanism improves the visual grounding capability of VLP models and thus helps them better handle various downstream tasks. By introducing PTP into several state-of-the-art VLP frameworks, we observe consistently significant improvements across representative cross-modal learning model architectures and several benchmarks, e.g. zero-shot Flickr30K Retrieval (+4.8 in average recall@1) for ViLT vilt baseline, and COCO Captioning (+5.3 in CIDEr) for SOTA BLIP blip baseline. Moreover, PTP achieves comparable results with object-detector based methods, and much faster inference speed since PTP discards its object detector for inference while the later cannot. Our code and pre-trained weight will be released at https://github.com/sail-sg/ptp.

Post-training has emerged as a crucial paradigm for adapting large-scale pre-trained models to various tasks, whose effects are fully reflected by delta parameters (i.e., the disparity between post-trained and pre-trained parameters). While numerous studies have explored delta parameter properties via operations like pruning, quantization, low-rank approximation, and extrapolation, a unified framework for systematically examining these characteristics has been lacking. In this paper, we propose a novel perspective based on Riemann sum approximation of the loss function to elucidate delta parameter editing operations. Our analysis categorizes existing methods into three classes based on their post-editing performance: competitive, decreased, and improved, explaining how they are expressed by the Riemann sum approximation term and how they alter the model performance. Extensive experiments on both visual and language models, including ViT, LLaMA 3, Qwen 2, and Mistral, corroborate our theoretical findings. Furthermore, we introduce extensions to existing techniques like DARE and BitDelta, highlighting their limitations in leveraging the properties of delta parameters and reorganizing them into general expressions to enhance the applicability and effectiveness of delta parameter editing in post-trained models.

We study the implications of the modeling choice to use a graph, instead of a hypergraph, to represent real-world interconnected systems whose constituent relationships are of higher order by nature. Such a modeling choice typically involves an underlying projection process that maps the original hypergraph onto a graph, and is common in graph-based analysis. While hypergraph projection can potentially lead to loss of higher-order relations, there exists very limited studies on the consequences of doing so, as well as its remediation. This work fills this gap by doing two things: (1) we develop analysis based on graph and set theory, showing two ubiquitous patterns of hyperedges that are root to structural information loss in all hypergraph projections; we also quantify the combinatorial impossibility of recovering the lost higher-order structures if no extra help is provided; (2) we still seek to recover the lost higher-order structures in hypergraph projection, and in light of (1)'s findings we propose to relax the problem into a learning-based setting. Under this setting, we develop a learning-based hypergraph reconstruction method based on an important statistic of hyperedge distributions that we find. Our reconstruction method is evaluated on 8 real-world datasets under different settings, and exhibits consistently good performance. We also demonstrate benefits of the reconstructed hypergraphs via use cases of protein rankings and link predictions.

Link prediction, a fundamental task on graphs, has proven indispensable in various applications, e.g., friend recommendation, protein analysis, and drug interaction prediction. However, since datasets span a multitude of domains, they could have distinct underlying mechanisms of link formation. Evidence in existing literature underscores the absence of a universally best algorithm suitable for all datasets. In this paper, we endeavor to explore principles of link prediction across diverse datasets from a data-centric perspective. We recognize three fundamental factors critical to link prediction: local structural proximity, global structural proximity, and feature proximity. We then unearth relationships among those factors where (i) global structural proximity only shows effectiveness when local structural proximity is deficient. (ii) The incompatibility can be found between feature and structural proximity. Such incompatibility leads to GNNs for Link Prediction (GNN4LP) consistently underperforming on edges where the feature proximity factor dominates. Inspired by these new insights from a data perspective, we offer practical instruction for GNN4LP model design and guidelines for selecting appropriate benchmark datasets for more comprehensive evaluations.

Paraphrasing re-expresses meaning to enhance applications like text simplification, machine translation, and question-answering. Specific paraphrase types facilitate accurate semantic analysis and robust language models. However, existing paraphrase-type generation methods often misalign with human preferences due to reliance on automated metrics and limited human-annotated training data, obscuring crucial aspects of semantic fidelity and linguistic transformations. This study addresses this gap by leveraging a human-ranked paraphrase-type dataset and integrating Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) to align model outputs directly with human judgments. DPO-based training increases paraphrase-type generation accuracy by 3 percentage points over a supervised baseline and raises human preference ratings by 7 percentage points. A newly created human-annotated dataset supports more rigorous future evaluations. Additionally, a paraphrase-type detection model achieves F1 scores of 0.91 for addition/deletion, 0.78 for same polarity substitution, and 0.70 for punctuation changes. These findings demonstrate that preference data and DPO training produce more reliable, semantically accurate paraphrases, enabling downstream applications such as improved summarization and more robust question-answering. The PTD model surpasses automated metrics and provides a more reliable framework for evaluating paraphrase quality, advancing paraphrase-type research toward richer, user-aligned language generation and establishing a stronger foundation for future evaluations grounded in human-centric criteria.

Methods for neural network hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling are computationally expensive due to the need to train a large number of model configurations. In this paper, we show that standard frequentist regression models can predict the final performance of partially trained model configurations using features based on network architectures, hyperparameters, and time-series validation performance data. We empirically show that our performance prediction models are much more effective than prominent Bayesian counterparts, are simpler to implement, and are faster to train. Our models can predict final performance in both visual classification and language modeling domains, are effective for predicting performance of drastically varying model architectures, and can even generalize between model classes. Using these prediction models, we also propose an early stopping method for hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling, which obtains a speedup of a factor up to 6x in both hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling. Finally, we empirically show that our early stopping method can be seamlessly incorporated into both reinforcement learning-based architecture selection algorithms and bandit based search methods. Through extensive experimentation, we empirically show our performance prediction models and early stopping algorithm are state-of-the-art in terms of prediction accuracy and speedup achieved while still identifying the optimal model configurations.

Given the clinical notes written in electronic health records (EHRs), it is challenging to predict the diagnostic codes which is formulated as a multi-label classification task. The large set of labels, the hierarchical dependency, and the imbalanced data make this prediction task extremely hard. Most existing work built a binary prediction for each label independently, ignoring the dependencies between labels. To address this problem, we propose a two-stage framework to improve automatic ICD coding by capturing the label correlation. Specifically, we train a label set distribution estimator to rescore the probability of each label set candidate generated by a base predictor. This paper is the first attempt at learning the label set distribution as a reranking module for medical code prediction. In the experiments, our proposed framework is able to improve upon best-performing predictors on the benchmark MIMIC datasets. The source code of this project is available at https://github.com/MiuLab/ICD-Correlation.

In "Backprop as functor", the authors show that the fundamental elements of deep learning -- gradient descent and backpropagation -- can be conceptualized as a strong monoidal functor Para(Euc)toLearn from the category of parameterized Euclidean spaces to that of learners, a category developed explicitly to capture parameter update and backpropagation. It was soon realized that there is an isomorphism LearncongPara(Slens), where Slens is the symmetric monoidal category of simple lenses as used in functional programming. In this note, we observe that Slens is a full subcategory of Poly, the category of polynomial functors in one variable, via the functor Amapsto Ay^A. Using the fact that (Poly,otimes) is monoidal closed, we show that a map Ato B in Para(Slens) has a natural interpretation in terms of dynamical systems (more precisely, generalized Moore machines) whose interface is the internal-hom type [Ay^A,By^B]. Finally, we review the fact that the category p-Coalg of dynamical systems on any p in Poly forms a topos, and consider the logical propositions that can be stated in its internal language. We give gradient descent as an example, and we conclude by discussing some directions for future work.

Current scene graph datasets suffer from strong long-tail distributions of their predicate classes. Due to a very low number of some predicate classes in the test sets, no reliable metrics can be retrieved for the rarest classes. We construct a new panoptic scene graph dataset and a set of metrics that are designed as a benchmark for the predictive performance especially on rare predicate classes. To construct the new dataset, we propose a model-assisted annotation pipeline that efficiently finds rare predicate classes that are hidden in a large set of images like needles in a haystack. Contrary to prior scene graph datasets, Haystack contains explicit negative annotations, i.e. annotations that a given relation does not have a certain predicate class. Negative annotations are helpful especially in the field of scene graph generation and open up a whole new set of possibilities to improve current scene graph generation models. Haystack is 100% compatible with existing panoptic scene graph datasets and can easily be integrated with existing evaluation pipelines. Our dataset and code can be found here: https://lorjul.github.io/haystack/. It includes annotation files and simple to use scripts and utilities, to help with integrating our dataset in existing work.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

We study the realizability of simplicial complexes with a given pair of integer sequences, representing the node degree distribution and the facet size distribution, respectively. While the s-uniform variant of the problem is NP-complete when s geq 3, we identify two populations of input sequences, most of which can be solved in polynomial time using a recursive algorithm that we contribute. Combining with a sampler for the simplicial configuration model [J.-G. Young et al., Phys. Rev. E 96, 032312 (2017)], we facilitate the efficient sampling of simplicial ensembles from arbitrary degree and size distributions. We find that, contrary to expectations based on dyadic networks, increasing the nodes' degrees reduces the number of loops in simplicial complexes. Our work unveils a fundamental constraint on the degree-size sequences and sheds light on further analysis of higher-order phenomena based on local structures.

Protein modeling is an increasingly popular area of machine learning research. Semi-supervised learning has emerged as an important paradigm in protein modeling due to the high cost of acquiring supervised protein labels, but the current literature is fragmented when it comes to datasets and standardized evaluation techniques. To facilitate progress in this field, we introduce the Tasks Assessing Protein Embeddings (TAPE), a set of five biologically relevant semi-supervised learning tasks spread across different domains of protein biology. We curate tasks into specific training, validation, and test splits to ensure that each task tests biologically relevant generalization that transfers to real-life scenarios. We benchmark a range of approaches to semi-supervised protein representation learning, which span recent work as well as canonical sequence learning techniques. We find that self-supervised pretraining is helpful for almost all models on all tasks, more than doubling performance in some cases. Despite this increase, in several cases features learned by self-supervised pretraining still lag behind features extracted by state-of-the-art non-neural techniques. This gap in performance suggests a huge opportunity for innovative architecture design and improved modeling paradigms that better capture the signal in biological sequences. TAPE will help the machine learning community focus effort on scientifically relevant problems. Toward this end, all data and code used to run these experiments are available at https://github.com/songlab-cal/tape.

Various parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) techniques have been proposed to enable computationally efficient fine-tuning while maintaining model performance. However, existing PEFT methods are still limited by the growing number of trainable parameters with the rapid deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs). To address this challenge, we present LoRETTA, an ultra-parameter-efficient framework that significantly reduces trainable parameters through tensor-train decomposition. Specifically, we propose two methods, named {LoRETTA}_{adp} and {LoRETTA}_{rep}. The former employs tensorized adapters, offering a high-performance yet lightweight approach for the fine-tuning of LLMs. The latter emphasizes fine-tuning via weight parameterization with a set of small tensor factors. LoRETTA achieves comparable or better performance than most widely used PEFT methods with up to 100times fewer parameters on the LLaMA-2-7B models. Furthermore, empirical results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively improves training efficiency, enjoys better multi-task learning performance, and enhances the anti-overfitting capability. Plug-and-play codes built upon the Huggingface framework and PEFT library will be released.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data -- e.g., from a generative model -- to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPI provably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification -- augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images -- and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Contrastive language-image pre-training (CLIP) models have demonstrated considerable success across various vision-language tasks, such as text-to-image retrieval, where the model is required to effectively process natural language input to produce an accurate visual output. However, current models still face limitations in dealing with linguistic variations in input queries, such as paraphrases, making it challenging to handle a broad range of user queries in real-world applications. In this study, we introduce a straightforward fine-tuning approach to enhance the representations of CLIP models for paraphrases. Our approach involves a two-step paraphrase generation process, where we automatically create two categories of paraphrases from web-scale image captions by leveraging large language models. Subsequently, we fine-tune the CLIP text encoder using these generated paraphrases while freezing the image encoder. Our resulting model, which we call ParaCLIP, exhibits significant improvements over baseline CLIP models across various tasks, including paraphrased retrieval (with rank similarity scores improved by up to 2.0% and 5.6%), Visual Genome Relation and Attribution, as well as seven semantic textual similarity tasks.

In Multi-Task Learning (MTL), tasks may compete and limit the performance achieved on each other, rather than guiding the optimization to a solution, superior to all its single-task trained counterparts. Since there is often not a unique solution optimal for all tasks, practitioners have to balance tradeoffs between tasks' performance, and resort to optimality in the Pareto sense. Most MTL methodologies either completely neglect this aspect, and instead of aiming at learning a Pareto Front, produce one solution predefined by their optimization schemes, or produce diverse but discrete solutions. Recent approaches parameterize the Pareto Front via neural networks, leading to complex mappings from tradeoff to objective space. In this paper, we conjecture that the Pareto Front admits a linear parameterization in parameter space, which leads us to propose Pareto Manifold Learning, an ensembling method in weight space. Our approach produces a continuous Pareto Front in a single training run, that allows to modulate the performance on each task during inference. Experiments on multi-task learning benchmarks, ranging from image classification to tabular datasets and scene understanding, show that Pareto Manifold Learning outperforms state-of-the-art single-point algorithms, while learning a better Pareto parameterization than multi-point baselines.

The study emphasizes the challenge of finding the optimal trade-off between bias and variance, especially as hyperparameter optimization increases in complexity. Through empirical analysis, three hyperparameter tuning algorithms Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE), Genetic Search, and Random Search are evaluated across regression and classification tasks. The results show that nonlinear models, with properly tuned hyperparameters, significantly outperform linear models. Interestingly, Random Search excelled in regression tasks, while TPE was more effective for classification tasks. This suggests that there is no one-size-fits-all solution, as different algorithms perform better depending on the task and model type. The findings underscore the importance of selecting the appropriate tuning method and highlight the computational challenges involved in optimizing machine learning models, particularly as search spaces expand.

Paraphrases represent a human's intuitive ability to understand expressions presented in various different ways. Current paraphrase evaluations of language models primarily use binary approaches, offering limited interpretability of specific text changes. Atomic paraphrase types (APT) decompose paraphrases into different linguistic changes and offer a granular view of the flexibility in linguistic expression (e.g., a shift in syntax or vocabulary used). In this study, we assess the human preferences towards ChatGPT in generating English paraphrases with ten APTs and five prompting techniques. We introduce APTY (Atomic Paraphrase TYpes), a dataset of 500 sentence-level and word-level annotations by 15 annotators. The dataset also provides a human preference ranking of paraphrases with different types that can be used to fine-tune models with RLHF and DPO methods. Our results reveal that ChatGPT can generate simple APTs, such as additions and deletions, but struggle with complex structures (e.g., subordination changes). This study contributes to understanding which aspects of paraphrasing language models have already succeeded at understanding and what remains elusive. In addition, our curated datasets can be used to develop language models with specific linguistic capabilities.

It is often useful to compactly summarize important properties of model parameters and training data so that they can be used later without storing and/or iterating over the entire dataset. As a specific case, we consider estimating the Function Space Distance (FSD) over a training set, i.e. the average discrepancy between the outputs of two neural networks. We propose a Linearized Activation Function TRick (LAFTR) and derive an efficient approximation to FSD for ReLU neural networks. The key idea is to approximate the architecture as a linear network with stochastic gating. Despite requiring only one parameter per unit of the network, our approach outcompetes other parametric approximations with larger memory requirements. Applied to continual learning, our parametric approximation is competitive with state-of-the-art nonparametric approximations, which require storing many training examples. Furthermore, we show its efficacy in estimating influence functions accurately and detecting mislabeled examples without expensive iterations over the entire dataset.

Fill-in-the-Middle (FIM) has become integral to code language models, enabling generation of missing code given both left and right contexts. However, the current FIM training paradigm, which reorders original training sequences and then performs regular next-token prediction (NTP), often leads to models struggling to generate content that aligns smoothly with the surrounding context. Crucially, while existing works rely on rule-based post-processing to circumvent this weakness, such methods are not practically usable in open-domain code completion tasks as they depend on restrictive, dataset-specific assumptions (e.g., generating the same number of lines as in the ground truth). Moreover, model performance on FIM tasks deteriorates significantly without these unrealistic assumptions. We hypothesize that NTP alone is insufficient for models to learn effective planning conditioned on the distant right context, a critical factor for successful code infilling. To overcome this, we propose Horizon-Length Prediction (HLP), a novel training objective that teaches models to predict the number of remaining middle tokens (i.e., horizon length) at each step. HLP advances FIM with lookahead planning, enabling models to inherently learn infilling boundaries for arbitrary left and right contexts without relying on dataset-specific post-processing. Our evaluation across different models and sizes shows that HLP significantly improves FIM performance by up to 24% relatively on diverse benchmarks, across file-level and repository-level, and without resorting to unrealistic post-processing methods. Furthermore, the enhanced planning capability gained through HLP boosts model performance on code reasoning. Importantly, HLP only incurs negligible training overhead and no additional inference cost, ensuring its practicality for real-world scenarios.

ML-augmented algorithms utilize predictions to achieve performance beyond their worst-case bounds. Producing these predictions might be a costly operation -- this motivated Im et al. '22 to introduce the study of algorithms which use predictions parsimoniously. We design parsimonious algorithms for caching and MTS with action predictions, proposed by Antoniadis et al. '20, focusing on the parameters of consistency (performance with perfect predictions) and smoothness (dependence of their performance on the prediction error). Our algorithm for caching is 1-consistent, robust, and its smoothness deteriorates with the decreasing number of available predictions. We propose an algorithm for general MTS whose consistency and smoothness both scale linearly with the decreasing number of predictions. Without the restriction on the number of available predictions, both algorithms match the earlier guarantees achieved by Antoniadis et al. '20.

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical coverage guarantees, and versatility for underlying forecasters. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms for time series are limited to single-step prediction without considering the temporal dependency. In this paper, we propose a Copula Conformal Prediction algorithm for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting, CopulaCPTS. We prove that CopulaCPTS has finite sample validity guarantee. On several synthetic and real-world multivariate time series datasets, we show that CopulaCPTS produces more calibrated and sharp confidence intervals for multi-step prediction tasks than existing techniques.

Real-valued functions on geometric data -- such as node attributes on a graph -- can be optimized using descriptors from persistent homology, allowing the user to incorporate topological terms in the loss function. When optimizing a single real-valued function (the one-parameter setting), there is a canonical choice of descriptor for persistent homology: the barcode. The operation mapping a real-valued function to its barcode is differentiable almost everywhere, and the convergence of gradient descent for losses using barcodes is relatively well understood. When optimizing a vector-valued function (the multiparameter setting), there is no unique choice of descriptor for multiparameter persistent homology, and many distinct descriptors have been proposed. This calls for the development of a general framework for differentiability and optimization that applies to a wide range of multiparameter homological descriptors. In this article, we develop such a framework and show that it encompasses well-known descriptors of different flavors, such as signed barcodes and the multiparameter persistence landscape. We complement the theory with numerical experiments supporting the idea that optimizing multiparameter homological descriptors can lead to improved performances compared to optimizing one-parameter descriptors, even when using the simplest and most efficiently computable multiparameter descriptors.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

Recent advancements in implicit 3D representations and generative models have markedly propelled the field of 3D object generation forward. However, it remains a significant challenge to accurately model geometries with defined sharp features under parametric controls, which is crucial in fields like industrial design and manufacturing. To bridge this gap, we introduce a framework that employs Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate text-driven 3D shapes, manipulating 3D software via program synthesis. We present 3D-PreMise, a dataset specifically tailored for 3D parametric modeling of industrial shapes, designed to explore state-of-the-art LLMs within our proposed pipeline. Our work reveals effective generation strategies and delves into the self-correction capabilities of LLMs using a visual interface. Our work highlights both the potential and limitations of LLMs in 3D parametric modeling for industrial applications.

Fine-tuning pre-trained models has emerged as a powerful technique in numerous domains, owing to its ability to leverage enormous pre-existing knowledge and achieve remarkable performance on downstream tasks. However, updating the parameters of entire networks is computationally intensive. Although state-of-the-art parameter-efficient transfer learning (PETL) methods significantly reduce the trainable parameters and storage demand, almost all of them still need to back-propagate the gradients through large pre-trained networks. This memory-extensive characteristic extremely limits the applicability of PETL methods in real-world scenarios. To this end, we propose a new memory-efficient PETL strategy, dubbed Universal Parallel Tuning (UniPT). Specifically, we facilitate the transfer process via a lightweight learnable parallel network, which consists of two modules: 1) A parallel interaction module that decouples the inherently sequential connections and processes the intermediate activations detachedly of the pre-trained network. 2) A confidence aggregation module that learns optimal strategies adaptively for integrating cross-layer features. We evaluate UniPT with different backbones (e.g., VSEinfty, CLIP4Clip, Clip-ViL, and MDETR) on five challenging vision-and-language tasks (i.e., image-text retrieval, video-text retrieval, visual question answering, compositional question answering, and visual grounding). Extensive ablations on ten datasets have validated that our UniPT can not only dramatically reduce memory consumption and outperform the best memory-efficient competitor, but also achieve higher performance than existing PETL methods in a low-memory scenario on different architectures. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/Paranioar/UniPT.

The complex nature of big biological systems pushed some scientists to classify its understanding under the inconceivable missions. Different leveled challenges complicated this task, one of is the prediction of a protein's function. In recent years, significant progress has been made in this field through the development of various machine learning approaches. However, most existing methods formulate the task as a multi-classification problem, i.e assigning predefined labels to proteins. In this work, we propose a novel approach, Prot2Text, which predicts a protein function's in a free text style, moving beyond the conventional binary or categorical classifications. By combining Graph Neural Networks(GNNs) and Large Language Models(LLMs), in an encoder-decoder framework, our model effectively integrates diverse data types including proteins' sequences, structures, and textual annotations. This multimodal approach allows for a holistic representation of proteins' functions, enabling the generation of detailed and accurate descriptions. To evaluate our model, we extracted a multimodal protein dataset from SwissProt, and demonstrate empirically the effectiveness of Prot2Text. These results highlight the transformative impact of multimodal models, specifically the fusion of GNNs and LLMs, empowering researchers with powerful tools for more accurate prediction of proteins' functions. The code, the models and a demo will be publicly released.

This paper accompanies the release of Opusparcus, a new paraphrase corpus for six European languages: German, English, Finnish, French, Russian, and Swedish. The corpus consists of paraphrases, that is, pairs of sentences in the same language that mean approximately the same thing. The paraphrases are extracted from the OpenSubtitles2016 corpus, which contains subtitles from movies and TV shows. The informal and colloquial genre that occurs in subtitles makes such data a very interesting language resource, for instance, from the perspective of computer assisted language learning. For each target language, the Opusparcus data have been partitioned into three types of data sets: training, development and test sets. The training sets are large, consisting of millions of sentence pairs, and have been compiled automatically, with the help of probabilistic ranking functions. The development and test sets consist of sentence pairs that have been checked manually; each set contains approximately 1000 sentence pairs that have been verified to be acceptable paraphrases by two annotators.

We present RigAnything, a novel autoregressive transformer-based model, which makes 3D assets rig-ready by probabilistically generating joints, skeleton topologies, and assigning skinning weights in a template-free manner. Unlike most existing auto-rigging methods, which rely on predefined skeleton template and are limited to specific categories like humanoid, RigAnything approaches the rigging problem in an autoregressive manner, iteratively predicting the next joint based on the global input shape and the previous prediction. While autoregressive models are typically used to generate sequential data, RigAnything extends their application to effectively learn and represent skeletons, which are inherently tree structures. To achieve this, we organize the joints in a breadth-first search (BFS) order, enabling the skeleton to be defined as a sequence of 3D locations and the parent index. Furthermore, our model improves the accuracy of position prediction by leveraging diffusion modeling, ensuring precise and consistent placement of joints within the hierarchy. This formulation allows the autoregressive model to efficiently capture both spatial and hierarchical relationships within the skeleton. Trained end-to-end on both RigNet and Objaverse datasets, RigAnything demonstrates state-of-the-art performance across diverse object types, including humanoids, quadrupeds, marine creatures, insects, and many more, surpassing prior methods in quality, robustness, generalizability, and efficiency. Please check our website for more details: https://www.liuisabella.com/RigAnything.

We study the problem of classification with a reject option for a fixed predictor, applicable in natural language processing. We introduce a new problem formulation for this scenario, and an algorithm minimizing a new surrogate loss function. We provide a complete theoretical analysis of the surrogate loss function with a strong H-consistency guarantee. For evaluation, we choose the decontextualization task, and provide a manually-labelled dataset of 2mathord,000 examples. Our algorithm significantly outperforms the baselines considered, with a sim!!25% improvement in coverage when halving the error rate, which is only sim!! 3 % away from the theoretical limit.

To deduce new facts on a knowledge graph (KG), a link predictor learns from the graph structure and collects local evidence to find the answer to a given query. However, existing methods suffer from a severe scalability problem due to the utilization of the whole KG for prediction, which hinders their promise on large scale KGs and cannot be directly addressed by vanilla sampling methods. In this work, we propose the one-shot-subgraph link prediction to achieve efficient and adaptive prediction. The design principle is that, instead of directly acting on the whole KG, the prediction procedure is decoupled into two steps, i.e., (i) extracting only one subgraph according to the query and (ii) predicting on this single, query dependent subgraph. We reveal that the non-parametric and computation-efficient heuristics Personalized PageRank (PPR) can effectively identify the potential answers and supporting evidence. With efficient subgraph-based prediction, we further introduce the automated searching of the optimal configurations in both data and model spaces. Empirically, we achieve promoted efficiency and leading performances on five large-scale benchmarks. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/tmlr-group/one-shot-subgraph.

We introduce MeshGPT, a new approach for generating triangle meshes that reflects the compactness typical of artist-created meshes, in contrast to dense triangle meshes extracted by iso-surfacing methods from neural fields. Inspired by recent advances in powerful large language models, we adopt a sequence-based approach to autoregressively generate triangle meshes as sequences of triangles. We first learn a vocabulary of latent quantized embeddings, using graph convolutions, which inform these embeddings of the local mesh geometry and topology. These embeddings are sequenced and decoded into triangles by a decoder, ensuring that they can effectively reconstruct the mesh. A transformer is then trained on this learned vocabulary to predict the index of the next embedding given previous embeddings. Once trained, our model can be autoregressively sampled to generate new triangle meshes, directly generating compact meshes with sharp edges, more closely imitating the efficient triangulation patterns of human-crafted meshes. MeshGPT demonstrates a notable improvement over state of the art mesh generation methods, with a 9% increase in shape coverage and a 30-point enhancement in FID scores across various categories.

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

In this paper, we introduce a conformal prediction method to construct prediction sets in a oneshot federated learning setting. More specifically, we define a quantile-of-quantiles estimator and prove that for any distribution, it is possible to output prediction sets with desired coverage in only one round of communication. To mitigate privacy issues, we also describe a locally differentially private version of our estimator. Finally, over a wide range of experiments, we show that our method returns prediction sets with coverage and length very similar to those obtained in a centralized setting. Overall, these results demonstrate that our method is particularly well-suited to perform conformal predictions in a one-shot federated learning setting.

Large language models often produce plausible but incorrect outputs. Existing heuristics such as HallBayes lack formal guarantees. We develop the first comprehensive theory of information-lift certificates under selective classification. Our contributions are: (i) a PAC-Bayes sub-gamma analysis extending beyond standard Bernstein bounds; (ii) explicit skeleton sensitivity theorems quantifying robustness to misspecification; (iii) failure-mode guarantees under assumption violations; and (iv) a principled variational method for skeleton construction. Across six datasets and multiple model families, we validate assumptions empirically, reduce abstention by 12--15\% at the same risk, and maintain runtime overhead below 20\% (further reduced via batching).

Recent advances in Language Models have enabled the protein modeling community with a powerful tool since protein sequences can be represented as text. Specifically, by taking advantage of Transformers, sequence-to-property prediction will be amenable without the need for explicit structural data. In this work, inspired by recent progress in Large Language Models (LLMs), we introduce PeptideBERT, a protein language model for predicting three key properties of peptides (hemolysis, solubility, and non-fouling). The PeptideBert utilizes the ProtBERT pretrained transformer model with 12 attention heads and 12 hidden layers. We then finetuned the pretrained model for the three downstream tasks. Our model has achieved state of the art (SOTA) for predicting Hemolysis, which is a task for determining peptide's potential to induce red blood cell lysis. Our PeptideBert non-fouling model also achieved remarkable accuracy in predicting peptide's capacity to resist non-specific interactions. This model, trained predominantly on shorter sequences, benefits from the dataset where negative examples are largely associated with insoluble peptides. Codes, models, and data used in this study are freely available at: https://github.com/ChakradharG/PeptideBERT

This is the first paper in a series of work we have accomplished over the past three years. In this paper, we have constructed a consistent formal plane geometry system. This will serve as a crucial bridge between IMO-level plane geometry challenges and readable AI automated reasoning. Within this formal framework, we have been able to seamlessly integrate modern AI models with our formal system. AI is now capable of providing deductive reasoning solutions to IMO-level plane geometry problems, just like handling other natural languages, and these proofs are readable, traceable, and verifiable. We propose the geometry formalization theory (GFT) to guide the development of the geometry formal system. Based on the GFT, we have established the FormalGeo, which consists of 88 geometric predicates and 196 theorems. It can represent, validate, and solve IMO-level geometry problems. we also have crafted the FGPS (formal geometry problem solver) in Python. It serves as both an interactive assistant for verifying problem-solving processes and an automated problem solver. We've annotated the formalgeo7k and formalgeo-imo datasets. The former contains 6,981 (expand to 133,818 through data augmentation) geometry problems, while the latter includes 18 (expand to 2,627 and continuously increasing) IMO-level challenging geometry problems. All annotated problems include detailed formal language descriptions and solutions. Implementation of the formal system and experiments validate the correctness and utility of the GFT. The backward depth-first search method only yields a 2.42% problem-solving failure rate, and we can incorporate deep learning techniques to achieve lower one. The source code of FGPS and datasets are available at https://github.com/BitSecret/FGPS.

Complex prediction models such as deep learning are the output from fitting machine learning, neural networks, or AI models to a set of training data. These are now standard tools in science. A key challenge with the current generation of models is that they are highly parameterized, which makes describing and interpreting the prediction strategies difficult. We use topological data analysis to transform these complex prediction models into pictures representing a topological view. The result is a map of the predictions that enables inspection. The methods scale up to large datasets across different domains and enable us to detect labeling errors in training data, understand generalization in image classification, and inspect predictions of likely pathogenic mutations in the BRCA1 gene.

In this paper, we present CAD2Program, a new method for reconstructing 3D parametric models from 2D CAD drawings. Our proposed method is inspired by recent successes in vision-language models (VLMs), and departs from traditional methods which rely on task-specific data representations and/or algorithms. Specifically, on the input side, we simply treat the 2D CAD drawing as a raster image, regardless of its original format, and encode the image with a standard ViT model. We show that such an encoding scheme achieves competitive performance against existing methods that operate on vector-graphics inputs, while imposing substantially fewer restrictions on the 2D drawings. On the output side, our method auto-regressively predicts a general-purpose language describing 3D parametric models in text form. Compared to other sequence modeling methods for CAD which use domain-specific sequence representations with fixed-size slots, our text-based representation is more flexible, and can be easily extended to arbitrary geometric entities and semantic or functional properties. Experimental results on a large-scale dataset of cabinet models demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

The large-scale visual pretraining has significantly improve the performance of large vision models. However, we observe the low FLOPs pitfall that the existing low-FLOPs models cannot benefit from large-scale pretraining. In this paper, we propose a general design principle of adding more parameters while maintaining low FLOPs for large-scale visual pretraining, named as ParameterNet. Dynamic convolutions are used for instance to equip the networks with more parameters and only slightly increase the FLOPs. The proposed ParameterNet scheme enables low-FLOPs networks to benefit from large-scale visual pretraining. Experiments on the large-scale ImageNet-22K have shown the superiority of our ParameterNet scheme. For example, ParameterNet-600M can achieve higher accuracy than the widely-used Swin Transformer (81.6\% vs. 80.9\%) and has much lower FLOPs (0.6G vs. 4.5G). The code will be released as soon (MindSpore: https://gitee.com/mindspore/models, PyTorch: https://github.com/huawei-noah/Efficient-AI-Backbones).

Sequential learning paradigms pose challenges for gradient-based deep learning due to difficulties incorporating new data and retaining prior knowledge. While Gaussian processes elegantly tackle these problems, they struggle with scalability and handling rich inputs, such as images. To address these issues, we introduce a technique that converts neural networks from weight space to function space, through a dual parameterization. Our parameterization offers: (i) a way to scale function-space methods to large data sets via sparsification, (ii) retention of prior knowledge when access to past data is limited, and (iii) a mechanism to incorporate new data without retraining. Our experiments demonstrate that we can retain knowledge in continual learning and incorporate new data efficiently. We further show its strengths in uncertainty quantification and guiding exploration in model-based RL. Further information and code is available on the project website.

Generalized Category Discovery (GCD) aims to discover novel categories in unlabelled datasets using knowledge learned from labelled samples. Previous studies argued that parametric classifiers are prone to overfitting to seen categories, and endorsed using a non-parametric classifier formed with semi-supervised k-means. However, in this study, we investigate the failure of parametric classifiers, verify the effectiveness of previous design choices when high-quality supervision is available, and identify unreliable pseudo-labels as a key problem. We demonstrate that two prediction biases exist: the classifier tends to predict seen classes more often, and produces an imbalanced distribution across seen and novel categories. Based on these findings, we propose a simple yet effective parametric classification method that benefits from entropy regularisation, achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple GCD benchmarks and shows strong robustness to unknown class numbers. We hope the investigation and proposed simple framework can serve as a strong baseline to facilitate future studies in this field. Our code is available at: https://github.com/CVMI-Lab/SimGCD.

Spatio-temporal predictive learning is a learning paradigm that enables models to learn spatial and temporal patterns by predicting future frames from given past frames in an unsupervised manner. Despite remarkable progress in recent years, a lack of systematic understanding persists due to the diverse settings, complex implementation, and difficult reproducibility. Without standardization, comparisons can be unfair and insights inconclusive. To address this dilemma, we propose OpenSTL, a comprehensive benchmark for spatio-temporal predictive learning that categorizes prevalent approaches into recurrent-based and recurrent-free models. OpenSTL provides a modular and extensible framework implementing various state-of-the-art methods. We conduct standard evaluations on datasets across various domains, including synthetic moving object trajectory, human motion, driving scenes, traffic flow and weather forecasting. Based on our observations, we provide a detailed analysis of how model architecture and dataset properties affect spatio-temporal predictive learning performance. Surprisingly, we find that recurrent-free models achieve a good balance between efficiency and performance than recurrent models. Thus, we further extend the common MetaFormers to boost recurrent-free spatial-temporal predictive learning. We open-source the code and models at https://github.com/chengtan9907/OpenSTL.

Antibody design is an essential yet challenging task in various domains like therapeutics and biology. There are two major defects in current learning-based methods: 1) tackling only a certain subtask of the whole antibody design pipeline, making them suboptimal or resource-intensive. 2) omitting either the framework regions or side chains, thus incapable of capturing the full-atom geometry. To address these pitfalls, we propose dynamic Multi-channel Equivariant grAph Network (dyMEAN), an end-to-end full-atom model for E(3)-equivariant antibody design given the epitope and the incomplete sequence of the antibody. Specifically, we first explore structural initialization as a knowledgeable guess of the antibody structure and then propose shadow paratope to bridge the epitope-antibody connections. Both 1D sequences and 3D structures are updated via an adaptive multi-channel equivariant encoder that is able to process protein residues of variable sizes when considering full atoms. Finally, the updated antibody is docked to the epitope via the alignment of the shadow paratope. Experiments on epitope-binding CDR-H3 design, complex structure prediction, and affinity optimization demonstrate the superiority of our end-to-end framework and full-atom modeling.

Parameter inference, i.e. inferring the posterior distribution of the parameters of a statistical model given some data, is a central problem to many scientific disciplines. Generative models can be used as an alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for conducting posterior inference, both in likelihood-based and simulation-based problems. However, assessing the accuracy of posteriors encoded in generative models is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce `Tests of Accuracy with Random Points' (TARP) coverage testing as a method to estimate coverage probabilities of generative posterior estimators. Our method differs from previously-existing coverage-based methods, which require posterior evaluations. We prove that our approach is necessary and sufficient to show that a posterior estimator is accurate. We demonstrate the method on a variety of synthetic examples, and show that TARP can be used to test the results of posterior inference analyses in high-dimensional spaces. We also show that our method can detect inaccurate inferences in cases where existing methods fail.

Existing polygonal surface reconstruction methods heavily depend on input completeness and struggle with incomplete point clouds. We argue that while current point cloud completion techniques may recover missing points, they are not optimized for polygonal surface reconstruction, where the parametric representation of underlying surfaces remains overlooked. To address this gap, we introduce parametric completion, a novel paradigm for point cloud completion, which recovers parametric primitives instead of individual points to convey high-level geometric structures. Our presented approach, PaCo, enables high-quality polygonal surface reconstruction by leveraging plane proxies that encapsulate both plane parameters and inlier points, proving particularly effective in challenging scenarios with highly incomplete data. Comprehensive evaluations of our approach on the ABC dataset establish its effectiveness with superior performance and set a new standard for polygonal surface reconstruction from incomplete data. Project page: https://parametric-completion.github.io.

Protein function prediction is a crucial task in bioinformatics, with significant implications for understanding biological processes and disease mechanisms. While the relationship between sequence and function has been extensively explored, translating protein structure to function continues to present substantial challenges. Various models, particularly, CNN and graph-based deep learning approaches that integrate structural and functional data, have been proposed to address these challenges. However, these methods often fall short in elucidating the functional significance of key residues essential for protein functionality, as they predominantly adopt a retrospective perspective, leading to suboptimal performance. Inspired by region proposal networks in computer vision, we introduce the Protein Region Proposal Network (ProteinRPN) for accurate protein function prediction. Specifically, the region proposal module component of ProteinRPN identifies potential functional regions (anchors) which are refined through the hierarchy-aware node drop pooling layer favoring nodes with defined secondary structures and spatial proximity. The representations of the predicted functional nodes are enriched using attention mechanisms and subsequently fed into a Graph Multiset Transformer, which is trained with supervised contrastive (SupCon) and InfoNCE losses on perturbed protein structures. Our model demonstrates significant improvements in predicting Gene Ontology (GO) terms, effectively localizing functional residues within protein structures. The proposed framework provides a robust, scalable solution for protein function annotation, advancing the understanding of protein structure-function relationships in computational biology.

Over the broad landscape of experimental design, regression has been a powerful tool to accurately predict the outcome metrics of a system or model given a set of parameters, but has been traditionally restricted to methods which are only applicable to a specific task. In this paper, we propose OmniPred, a framework for training language models as universal end-to-end regressors over (x,y) evaluation data from diverse real world experiments. Using data sourced from Google Vizier, one of the largest blackbox optimization databases in the world, our extensive experiments demonstrate that through only textual representations of mathematical parameters and values, language models are capable of very precise numerical regression, and if given the opportunity to train over multiple tasks, can significantly outperform traditional regression models.

Hypergraphs offer a powerful framework for modeling higher-order interactions that traditional pairwise graphs cannot fully capture. However, practical constraints often lead to their simplification into projected graphs, resulting in substantial information loss and ambiguity in representing higher-order relationships. In this work, we propose MARIOH, a supervised approach for reconstructing the original hypergraph from its projected graph by leveraging edge multiplicity. To overcome the difficulties posed by the large search space, MARIOH integrates several key ideas: (a) identifying provable size-2 hyperedges, which reduces the candidate search space, (b) predicting the likelihood of candidates being hyperedges by utilizing both structural and multiplicity-related features, and (c) not only targeting promising hyperedge candidates but also examining less confident ones to explore alternative possibilities. Together, these ideas enable MARIOH to efficiently and effectively explore the search space. In our experiments using 10 real-world datasets, MARIOH achieves up to 74.51% higher reconstruction accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods.

When training deep learning models, the performance depends largely on the selected hyperparameters. However, hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is often one of the most expensive parts of model design. Classical HPO methods treat this as a black-box optimization problem. However, gray-box HPO methods, which incorporate more information about the setup, have emerged as a promising direction for more efficient optimization. For example, using intermediate loss evaluations to terminate bad selections. In this work, we propose an HPO method for neural networks using logged checkpoints of the trained weights to guide future hyperparameter selections. Our method, Forecasting Model Search (FMS), embeds weights into a Gaussian process deep kernel surrogate model, using a permutation-invariant graph metanetwork to be data-efficient with the logged network weights. To facilitate reproducibility and further research, we open-source our code at https://github.com/NVlabs/forecasting-model-search.

Uncertainty learning and quantification of models are crucial tasks to enhance the trustworthiness of the models. Importantly, the recent surge of generative language models (GLMs) emphasizes the need for reliable uncertainty quantification due to the concerns on generating hallucinated facts. In this paper, we propose to learn neural prediction set models that comes with the probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantee for quantifying the uncertainty of GLMs. Unlike existing prediction set models, which are parameterized by a scalar value, we propose to parameterize prediction sets via neural networks, which achieves more precise uncertainty quantification but still satisfies the PAC guarantee. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method on four types of language datasets and six types of models by showing that our method improves the quantified uncertainty by 63% on average, compared to a standard baseline method.

Parametric body models offer expressive 3D representation of humans across a wide range of poses, shapes, and facial expressions, typically derived by learning a basis over registered 3D meshes. However, existing human mesh modeling approaches struggle to capture detailed variations across diverse body poses and shapes, largely due to limited training data diversity and restrictive modeling assumptions. Moreover, the common paradigm first optimizes the external body surface using a linear basis, then regresses internal skeletal joints from surface vertices. This approach introduces problematic dependencies between internal skeleton and outer soft tissue, limiting direct control over body height and bone lengths. To address these issues, we present ATLAS, a high-fidelity body model learned from 600k high-resolution scans captured using 240 synchronized cameras. Unlike previous methods, we explicitly decouple the shape and skeleton bases by grounding our mesh representation in the human skeleton. This decoupling enables enhanced shape expressivity, fine-grained customization of body attributes, and keypoint fitting independent of external soft-tissue characteristics. ATLAS outperforms existing methods by fitting unseen subjects in diverse poses more accurately, and quantitative evaluations show that our non-linear pose correctives more effectively capture complex poses compared to linear models.

Foundation models in video generation are demonstrating remarkable capabilities as potential world models for simulating the physical world. However, their application in high-stakes domains like surgery, which demand deep, specialized causal knowledge rather than general physical rules, remains a critical unexplored gap. To systematically address this challenge, we present SurgVeo, the first expert-curated benchmark for video generation model evaluation in surgery, and the Surgical Plausibility Pyramid (SPP), a novel, four-tiered framework tailored to assess model outputs from basic appearance to complex surgical strategy. On the basis of the SurgVeo benchmark, we task the advanced Veo-3 model with a zero-shot prediction task on surgical clips from laparoscopic and neurosurgical procedures. A panel of four board-certified surgeons evaluates the generated videos according to the SPP. Our results reveal a distinct "plausibility gap": while Veo-3 achieves exceptional Visual Perceptual Plausibility, it fails critically at higher levels of the SPP, including Instrument Operation Plausibility, Environment Feedback Plausibility, and Surgical Intent Plausibility. This work provides the first quantitative evidence of the chasm between visually convincing mimicry and causal understanding in surgical AI. Our findings from SurgVeo and the SPP establish a crucial foundation and roadmap for developing future models capable of navigating the complexities of specialized, real-world healthcare domains.

This paper builds off recent work from Kiperwasser & Goldberg (2016) using neural attention in a simple graph-based dependency parser. We use a larger but more thoroughly regularized parser than other recent BiLSTM-based approaches, with biaffine classifiers to predict arcs and labels. Our parser gets state of the art or near state of the art performance on standard treebanks for six different languages, achieving 95.7% UAS and 94.1% LAS on the most popular English PTB dataset. This makes it the highest-performing graph-based parser on this benchmark---outperforming Kiperwasser Goldberg (2016) by 1.8% and 2.2%---and comparable to the highest performing transition-based parser (Kuncoro et al., 2016), which achieves 95.8% UAS and 94.6% LAS. We also show which hyperparameter choices had a significant effect on parsing accuracy, allowing us to achieve large gains over other graph-based approaches.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have been driven by test-time compute scaling - a strategy that improves reasoning by generating longer, sequential thought processes. While effective, this approach encounters a significant bottleneck as computation increases, where further computation offers only marginal performance gains. We argue this ceiling is not an inherent limit of the model's capability but a flaw in the scaling strategy itself, a phenomenon we term "Tunnel Vision", where a model's imperfect initial steps lock it into a suboptimal reasoning path. To overcome this, we introduce a new scaling paradigm: native thought parallelism. We present ParaThinker, an end-to-end framework that trains an LLM to generate multiple, diverse reasoning paths in parallel and synthesize them into a superior final answer. By exploring different lines of thoughts simultaneously, ParaThinker effectively sidesteps the Tunnel Vision issue and unlocks the model's latent reasoning potential. Our approach demonstrates that scaling compute in parallel (width) is a more effective and efficient way to superior reasoning than simply scaling sequentially (depth). On challenging reasoning benchmarks, ParaThinker achieves substantial accuracy improvements over sequential LLMs (12.3% for 1.5B and 7.5% for 7B models on average with 8 parallel paths), while adding only negligible latency overhead (7.1%). This enables smaller models to surpass much larger counterparts and establishes parallel thinking as a critical, efficient dimension for scaling future LLMs.

In many scenarios, the interpretability of machine learning models is a highly required but difficult task. To explain the individual predictions of such models, local model-agnostic approaches have been proposed. However, the process generating the explanations can be, for a user, as mysterious as the prediction to be explained. Furthermore, interpretability methods frequently lack theoretical guarantees, and their behavior on simple models is frequently unknown. While it is difficult, if not impossible, to ensure that an explainer behaves as expected on a cutting-edge model, we can at least ensure that everything works on simple, already interpretable models. In this paper, we present a theoretical analysis of Anchors (Ribeiro et al., 2018): a popular rule-based interpretability method that highlights a small set of words to explain a text classifier's decision. After formalizing its algorithm and providing useful insights, we demonstrate mathematically that Anchors produces meaningful results when used with linear text classifiers on top of a TF-IDF vectorization. We believe that our analysis framework can aid in the development of new explainability methods based on solid theoretical foundations.

Animal pose estimation is critical in applications ranging from life science research, agriculture, to veterinary medicine. Compared to human pose estimation, the performance of animal pose estimation is limited by the size of available datasets and the generalization of a model across datasets. Typically different keypoints are labeled regardless of whether the species are the same or not, leaving animal pose datasets to have disjoint or partially overlapping keypoints. As a consequence, a model cannot be used as a plug-and-play solution across datasets. This reality motivates us to develop panoptic animal pose estimation models that are able to predict keypoints defined in all datasets. In this work we propose a simple yet effective way to merge differentially labeled datasets to obtain the largest quadruped and lab mouse pose dataset. Using a gradient masking technique, so called SuperAnimal-models are able to predict keypoints that are distributed across datasets and exhibit strong zero-shot performance. The models can be further improved by (pseudo) labeled fine-tuning. These models outperform ImageNet-initialized models.

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods can fail if the sample size is small and often require expensive retraining when the underlying data distribution changes. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reservoir Conformal Prediction (ResCP), a novel training-free conformal prediction method for time series. Our approach leverages the efficiency and representation learning capabilities of reservoir computing to dynamically reweight conformity scores. In particular, we compute similarity scores among reservoir states and use them to adaptively reweight the observed residuals at each step. With this approach, ResCP enables us to account for local temporal dynamics when modeling the error distribution without compromising computational scalability. We prove that, under reasonable assumptions, ResCP achieves asymptotic conditional coverage, and we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness across diverse forecasting tasks.

Recently, unsupervised representation learning (URL) has improved the sample efficiency of Reinforcement Learning (RL) by pretraining a model from a large unlabeled dataset. The underlying principle of these methods is to learn temporally predictive representations by predicting future states in the latent space. However, an important challenge of this approach is the representational collapse, where the subspace of the latent representations collapses into a low-dimensional manifold. To address this issue, we propose a novel URL framework that causally predicts future states while increasing the dimension of the latent manifold by decorrelating the features in the latent space. Through extensive empirical studies, we demonstrate that our framework effectively learns predictive representations without collapse, which significantly improves the sample efficiency of state-of-the-art URL methods on the Atari 100k benchmark. The code is available at https://github.com/dojeon-ai/SimTPR.

Advances in peptide identification are revolutionizing our ability to decipher protein functions and accelerate therapeutic discovery. We present PDeepPP, a deep learning framework that integrates pretrained protein language models with parallel transformer-CNN architectures, achieving state-of-the-art performance in peptide characterization tasks. The model's hybrid architecture demonstrates unique capabilities in capturing both local sequence motifs and global structural features, as evidenced by 29% improved cluster separation in UMAP visualizations compared to conventional approaches. Evaluated across 33 biological recognition tasks - including post-translational modification site prediction and bioactive peptide identification - PDeepPP outperformed existing methods in 25 tasks with average AUC improvements of 4.2%. Notably, it achieved 0.9726 accuracy with PR AUC 0.9977 in antimicrobial peptide detection while reducing false negatives by 37.5% in antimalarial recognition scenarios. This framework enables accurate large-scale peptide analysis, achieving 218* acceleration over sequence-alignment-based methods while maintaining 99.5% specificity in critical glycosylation site detection.PDeepPP establishes a new paradigm for computational peptide analysis through its synergistic architecture design, enabling rapid yet precise functional annotation that bridges molecular pattern recognition with translational biomedical applications.We have made our implementation, including code, data, and pretrained models, publicly available via GitHub (https://github.com/fondress/PDeepPP) and Hugging Face (https://huggingface.co/fondress/PDeppPP).

Approximating nonlinear differential equations using a neural network provides a robust and efficient tool for various scientific computing tasks, including real-time predictions, inverse problems, optimal controls, and surrogate modeling. Previous works have focused on embedding dynamical systems into networks through two approaches: learning a single solution operator (i.e., the mapping from input parametrized functions to solutions) or learning the governing system of equations (i.e., the constitutive model relative to the state variables). Both of these approaches yield different representations for the same underlying data or function. Additionally, observing that families of differential equations often share key characteristics, we seek one network representation across a wide range of equations. Our method, called Predicting Operators and Symbolic Expressions (PROSE), learns maps from multimodal inputs to multimodal outputs, capable of generating both numerical predictions and mathematical equations. By using a transformer structure and a feature fusion approach, our network can simultaneously embed sets of solution operators for various parametric differential equations using a single trained network. Detailed experiments demonstrate that the network benefits from its multimodal nature, resulting in improved prediction accuracy and better generalization. The network is shown to be able to handle noise in the data and errors in the symbolic representation, including noisy numerical values, model misspecification, and erroneous addition or deletion of terms. PROSE provides a new neural network framework for differential equations which allows for more flexibility and generality in learning operators and governing equations from data.

Reconstructing dynamic articulated objects from a singular monocular video is challenging, requiring joint estimation of shape, motion, and camera parameters from limited views. Current methods typically demand extensive computational resources and training time, and require additional human annotations such as predefined parametric models, camera poses, and key points, limiting their generalizability. We propose Synergistic Shape and Skeleton Optimization (S3O), a novel two-phase method that forgoes these prerequisites and efficiently learns parametric models including visible shapes and underlying skeletons. Conventional strategies typically learn all parameters simultaneously, leading to interdependencies where a single incorrect prediction can result in significant errors. In contrast, S3O adopts a phased approach: it first focuses on learning coarse parametric models, then progresses to motion learning and detail addition. This method substantially lowers computational complexity and enhances robustness in reconstruction from limited viewpoints, all without requiring additional annotations. To address the current inadequacies in 3D reconstruction from monocular video benchmarks, we collected the PlanetZoo dataset. Our experimental evaluations on standard benchmarks and the PlanetZoo dataset affirm that S3O provides more accurate 3D reconstruction, and plausible skeletons, and reduces the training time by approximately 60% compared to the state-of-the-art, thus advancing the state of the art in dynamic object reconstruction.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

Spatio-temporal forecasting is essential for real-world applications such as traffic management and urban computing. Although recent methods have shown improved accuracy, they often fail to account for dynamic deviations between current inputs and historical patterns. These deviations contain critical signals that can significantly affect model performance. To fill this gap, we propose ST-SSDL, a Spatio-Temporal time series forecasting framework that incorporates a Self-Supervised Deviation Learning scheme to capture and utilize such deviations. ST-SSDL anchors each input to its historical average and discretizes the latent space using learnable prototypes that represent typical spatio-temporal patterns. Two auxiliary objectives are proposed to refine this structure: a contrastive loss that enhances inter-prototype discriminability and a deviation loss that regularizes the distance consistency between input representations and corresponding prototypes to quantify deviation. Optimized jointly with the forecasting objective, these components guide the model to organize its hidden space and improve generalization across diverse input conditions. Experiments on six benchmark datasets show that ST-SSDL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiple metrics. Visualizations further demonstrate its ability to adaptively respond to varying levels of deviation in complex spatio-temporal scenarios. Our code and datasets are available at https://github.com/Jimmy-7664/ST-SSDL.

As its width tends to infinity, a deep neural network's behavior under gradient descent can become simplified and predictable (e.g. given by the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK)), if it is parametrized appropriately (e.g. the NTK parametrization). However, we show that the standard and NTK parametrizations of a neural network do not admit infinite-width limits that can learn features, which is crucial for pretraining and transfer learning such as with BERT. We propose simple modifications to the standard parametrization to allow for feature learning in the limit. Using the *Tensor Programs* technique, we derive explicit formulas for such limits. On Word2Vec and few-shot learning on Omniglot via MAML, two canonical tasks that rely crucially on feature learning, we compute these limits exactly. We find that they outperform both NTK baselines and finite-width networks, with the latter approaching the infinite-width feature learning performance as width increases. More generally, we classify a natural space of neural network parametrizations that generalizes standard, NTK, and Mean Field parametrizations. We show 1) any parametrization in this space either admits feature learning or has an infinite-width training dynamics given by kernel gradient descent, but not both; 2) any such infinite-width limit can be computed using the Tensor Programs technique. Code for our experiments can be found at github.com/edwardjhu/TP4.

A technique for improving the prediction accuracy of decision trees is proposed. It consists in evaluating the tree's branches in parallel over multiple paths. The technique enables predictions that are more aligned with the ones generated by the nearest neighborhood variant of the deodata algorithms. The technique also enables the hybridization of the decision tree algorithm with the nearest neighborhood variant.

Quantitative tools are increasingly appealing for decision support in healthcare, driven by the growing capabilities of advanced AI systems. However, understanding the predictive uncertainties surrounding a tool's output is crucial for decision-makers to ensure reliable and transparent decisions. In this paper, we present a case study on pulmonary nodule detection for lung cancer screening, enhancing an advanced detection model with an uncertainty quantification technique called conformal risk control (CRC). We demonstrate that prediction sets with conformal guarantees are attractive measures of predictive uncertainty in the safety-critical healthcare domain, allowing end-users to achieve arbitrary validity by trading off false positives and providing formal statistical guarantees on model performance. Among ground-truth nodules annotated by at least three radiologists, our model achieves a sensitivity that is competitive with that generally achieved by individual radiologists, with a slight increase in false positives. Furthermore, we illustrate the risks of using off-the-shelve prediction models when faced with ontological uncertainty, such as when radiologists disagree on what constitutes the ground truth on pulmonary nodules.

Recent works have extended notions of feature importance to semantic concepts that are inherently interpretable to the users interacting with a black-box predictive model. Yet, precise statistical guarantees, such as false positive rate control, are needed to communicate findings transparently and to avoid unintended consequences in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we formalize the global (i.e., over a population) and local (i.e., for a sample) statistical importance of semantic concepts for the predictions of opaque models, by means of conditional independence, which allows for rigorous testing. We use recent ideas of sequential kernelized testing (SKIT) to induce a rank of importance across concepts, and showcase the effectiveness and flexibility of our framework on synthetic datasets as well as on image classification tasks using vision-language models such as CLIP.

We present the system description for our submission towards the Key Point Analysis Shared Task at ArgMining 2021. Track 1 of the shared task requires participants to develop methods to predict the match score between each pair of arguments and keypoints, provided they belong to the same topic under the same stance. We leveraged existing state of the art pre-trained language models along with incorporating additional data and features extracted from the inputs (topics, key points, and arguments) to improve performance. We were able to achieve mAP strict and mAP relaxed score of 0.872 and 0.966 respectively in the evaluation phase, securing 5th place on the leaderboard. In the post evaluation phase, we achieved a mAP strict and mAP relaxed score of 0.921 and 0.982 respectively. All the codes to generate reproducible results on our models are available on Github.

The regression of 3D Human Pose and Shape (HPS) from an image is becoming increasingly accurate. This makes the results useful for downstream tasks like human action recognition or 3D graphics. Yet, no regressor is perfect, and accuracy can be affected by ambiguous image evidence or by poses and appearance that are unseen during training. Most current HPS regressors, however, do not report the confidence of their outputs, meaning that downstream tasks cannot differentiate accurate estimates from inaccurate ones. To address this, we develop POCO, a novel framework for training HPS regressors to estimate not only a 3D human body, but also their confidence, in a single feed-forward pass. Specifically, POCO estimates both the 3D body pose and a per-sample variance. The key idea is to introduce a Dual Conditioning Strategy (DCS) for regressing uncertainty that is highly correlated to pose reconstruction quality. The POCO framework can be applied to any HPS regressor and here we evaluate it by modifying HMR, PARE, and CLIFF. In all cases, training the network to reason about uncertainty helps it learn to more accurately estimate 3D pose. While this was not our goal, the improvement is modest but consistent. Our main motivation is to provide uncertainty estimates for downstream tasks; we demonstrate this in two ways: (1) We use the confidence estimates to bootstrap HPS training. Given unlabelled image data, we take the confident estimates of a POCO-trained regressor as pseudo ground truth. Retraining with this automatically-curated data improves accuracy. (2) We exploit uncertainty in video pose estimation by automatically identifying uncertain frames (e.g. due to occlusion) and inpainting these from confident frames. Code and models will be available for research at https://poco.is.tue.mpg.de.

Do large language models (LLMs) anticipate when they will answer correctly? To study this, we extract activations after a question is read but before any tokens are generated, and train linear probes to predict whether the model's forthcoming answer will be correct. Across three open-source model families ranging from 7 to 70 billion parameters, projections on this "in-advance correctness direction" trained on generic trivia questions predict success in distribution and on diverse out-of-distribution knowledge datasets, outperforming black-box baselines and verbalised predicted confidence. Predictive power saturates in intermediate layers, suggesting that self-assessment emerges mid-computation. Notably, generalisation falters on questions requiring mathematical reasoning. Moreover, for models responding "I don't know", doing so strongly correlates with the probe score, indicating that the same direction also captures confidence. By complementing previous results on truthfulness and other behaviours obtained with probes and sparse auto-encoders, our work contributes essential findings to elucidate LLM internals.

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing the actual ground truth. While the original formulation assumes data exchangeability, some extensions handle non-exchangeable data, which is often the case in many real-world scenarios. In parallel, some progress has been made in conformal methods that provide statistical guarantees for a broader range of objectives, such as bounding the best F_1-score or minimizing the false negative rate in expectation. In this paper, we leverage and extend these two lines of work by proposing non-exchangeable conformal risk control, which allows controlling the expected value of any monotone loss function when the data is not exchangeable. Our framework is flexible, makes very few assumptions, and allows weighting the data based on its relevance for a given test example; a careful choice of weights may result on tighter bounds, making our framework useful in the presence of change points, time series, or other forms of distribution drift. Experiments with both synthetic and real world data show the usefulness of our method.

Spatial-temporal forecasting and imputation are important for real-world intelligent systems. Most existing methods are tailored for individual forecasting or imputation tasks but are not designed for both. Additionally, they are less effective for zero-shot and few-shot learning. While pre-trained language model (PLM) have exhibited strong pattern recognition and reasoning abilities across various tasks, including few-shot and zero-shot learning, their applications in spatial-temporal data understanding has been constrained by insufficient modeling of complex correlations such as the temporal correlations, spatial connectivity, non-pairwise and high-order spatial-temporal correlations within data. In this paper, we propose STD-PLM for understanding both spatial and temporal properties of Spatial-Temporal Data with PLM, which is capable of implementing both spatial-temporal forecasting and imputation tasks. STD-PLM understands spatial-temporal correlations via explicitly designed spatial and temporal tokenizers. Topology-aware node embeddings are designed for PLM to comprehend and exploit the topology structure of data in inductive manner. Furthermore, to mitigate the efficiency issues introduced by the PLM, we design a sandglass attention module (SGA) combined with a specific constrained loss function, which significantly improves the model's efficiency while ensuring performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that STD-PLM exhibits competitive performance and generalization capabilities across the forecasting and imputation tasks on various datasets. Moreover, STD-PLM achieves promising results on both few-shot and zero-shot tasks.The code is made available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/STD-PLM-F3BA{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/STD-PLM-F3BA}

In this paper, we propose Patience-based Early Exit, a straightforward yet effective inference method that can be used as a plug-and-play technique to simultaneously improve the efficiency and robustness of a pretrained language model (PLM). To achieve this, our approach couples an internal-classifier with each layer of a PLM and dynamically stops inference when the intermediate predictions of the internal classifiers remain unchanged for a pre-defined number of steps. Our approach improves inference efficiency as it allows the model to make a prediction with fewer layers. Meanwhile, experimental results with an ALBERT model show that our method can improve the accuracy and robustness of the model by preventing it from overthinking and exploiting multiple classifiers for prediction, yielding a better accuracy-speed trade-off compared to existing early exit methods.

In keypoint estimation tasks such as human pose estimation, heatmap-based regression is the dominant approach despite possessing notable drawbacks: heatmaps intrinsically suffer from quantization error and require excessive computation to generate and post-process. Motivated to find a more efficient solution, we propose to model individual keypoints and sets of spatially related keypoints (i.e., poses) as objects within a dense single-stage anchor-based detection framework. Hence, we call our method KAPAO (pronounced "Ka-Pow"), for Keypoints And Poses As Objects. KAPAO is applied to the problem of single-stage multi-person human pose estimation by simultaneously detecting human pose and keypoint objects and fusing the detections to exploit the strengths of both object representations. In experiments, we observe that KAPAO is faster and more accurate than previous methods, which suffer greatly from heatmap post-processing. The accuracy-speed trade-off is especially favourable in the practical setting when not using test-time augmentation. Source code: https://github.com/wmcnally/kapao.

This work studies learning from a synergy process of 3D Morphable Models (3DMM) and 3D facial landmarks to predict complete 3D facial geometry, including 3D alignment, face orientation, and 3D face modeling. Our synergy process leverages a representation cycle for 3DMM parameters and 3D landmarks. 3D landmarks can be extracted and refined from face meshes built by 3DMM parameters. We next reverse the representation direction and show that predicting 3DMM parameters from sparse 3D landmarks improves the information flow. Together we create a synergy process that utilizes the relation between 3D landmarks and 3DMM parameters, and they collaboratively contribute to better performance. We extensively validate our contribution on full tasks of facial geometry prediction and show our superior and robust performance on these tasks for various scenarios. Particularly, we adopt only simple and widely-used network operations to attain fast and accurate facial geometry prediction. Codes and data: https://choyingw.github.io/works/SynergyNet/

To detect the deployment of large language models for malicious use cases (e.g., fake content creation or academic plagiarism), several approaches have recently been proposed for identifying AI-generated text via watermarks or statistical irregularities. How robust are these detection algorithms to paraphrases of AI-generated text? To stress test these detectors, we first train an 11B parameter paraphrase generation model (DIPPER) that can paraphrase paragraphs, optionally leveraging surrounding text (e.g., user-written prompts) as context. DIPPER also uses scalar knobs to control the amount of lexical diversity and reordering in the paraphrases. Paraphrasing text generated by three large language models (including GPT3.5-davinci-003) with DIPPER successfully evades several detectors, including watermarking, GPTZero, DetectGPT, and OpenAI's text classifier. For example, DIPPER drops the detection accuracy of DetectGPT from 70.3% to 4.6% (at a constant false positive rate of 1%), without appreciably modifying the input semantics. To increase the robustness of AI-generated text detection to paraphrase attacks, we introduce a simple defense that relies on retrieving semantically-similar generations and must be maintained by a language model API provider. Given a candidate text, our algorithm searches a database of sequences previously generated by the API, looking for sequences that match the candidate text within a certain threshold. We empirically verify our defense using a database of 15M generations from a fine-tuned T5-XXL model and find that it can detect 80% to 97% of paraphrased generations across different settings, while only classifying 1% of human-written sequences as AI-generated. We will open source our code, model and data for future research.

Given a K-vertex simplex in a d-dimensional space, suppose we measure n points on the simplex with noise (hence, some of the observed points fall outside the simplex). Vertex hunting is the problem of estimating the K vertices of the simplex. A popular vertex hunting algorithm is successive projection algorithm (SPA). However, SPA is observed to perform unsatisfactorily under strong noise or outliers. We propose pseudo-point SPA (pp-SPA). It uses a projection step and a denoise step to generate pseudo-points and feed them into SPA for vertex hunting. We derive error bounds for pp-SPA, leveraging on extreme value theory of (possibly) high-dimensional random vectors. The results suggest that pp-SPA has faster rates and better numerical performances than SPA. Our analysis includes an improved non-asymptotic bound for the original SPA, which is of independent interest.

Symbolic regression (SR) is a challenging task in machine learning that involves finding a mathematical expression for a function based on its values. Recent advancements in SR have demonstrated the effectiveness of pretrained transformer-based models in generating equations as sequences, leveraging large-scale pretraining on synthetic datasets and offering notable advantages in terms of inference time over GP-based methods. However, these models primarily rely on supervised pretraining goals borrowed from text generation and overlook equation-specific objectives like accuracy and complexity. To address this, we propose TPSR, a Transformer-based Planning strategy for Symbolic Regression that incorporates Monte Carlo Tree Search into the transformer decoding process. Unlike conventional decoding strategies, TPSR enables the integration of non-differentiable feedback, such as fitting accuracy and complexity, as external sources of knowledge into the transformer-based equation generation process. Extensive experiments on various datasets show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods, enhancing the model's fitting-complexity trade-off, extrapolation abilities, and robustness to noise

Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) can be accurately fine-tuned for downstream text processing tasks. Recently, researchers have introduced several parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods that optimize input prompts or adjust a small number of model parameters (e.g LoRA). In this study, we explore the impact of altering the input text of the original task in conjunction with parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods. To most effectively rewrite the input text, we train a few-shot paraphrase model with a Maximum-Marginal Likelihood objective. Using six few-shot text classification datasets, we show that enriching data with paraphrases at train and test time enhances the performance beyond what can be achieved with parameter-efficient fine-tuning alone.

Predicting human mobility holds significant practical value, with applications ranging from enhancing disaster risk planning to simulating epidemic spread. In this paper, we present the GeoFormer, a decoder-only transformer model adapted from the GPT architecture to forecast human mobility. Our proposed model is rigorously tested in the context of the HuMob Challenge 2023 -- a competition designed to evaluate the performance of prediction models on standardized datasets to predict human mobility. The challenge leverages two datasets encompassing urban-scale data of 25,000 and 100,000 individuals over a longitudinal period of 75 days. GeoFormer stands out as a top performer in the competition, securing a place in the top-3 ranking. Its success is underscored by performing well on both performance metrics chosen for the competition -- the GEO-BLEU and the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) measures. The performance of the GeoFormer on the HuMob Challenge 2023 underscores its potential to make substantial contributions to the field of human mobility prediction, with far-reaching implications for disaster preparedness, epidemic control, and beyond.

Several recent papers have investigated the potential of language models as knowledge bases as well as the existence of severe biases when extracting factual knowledge. In this work, we focus on the factual probing performance over unseen prompts from tuning, and using a probabilistic view we show the inherent misalignment between pre-training and downstream tuning objectives in language models for probing knowledge. We hypothesize that simultaneously debiasing these objectives can be the key to generalisation over unseen prompts. We propose an adapter-based framework, UniArk, for generalised and consistent factual knowledge extraction through simple methods without introducing extra parameters. Extensive experiments show that UniArk can significantly improve the model's out-of-domain generalisation as well as consistency under various prompts. Additionally, we construct ParaTrex, a large-scale and diverse dataset for measuring the inconsistency and out-of-domain generation of models. Further, ParaTrex offers a reference method for constructing paraphrased datasets using large language models.

Many state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms rely on model-based optimizers that learn surrogate models of the target function to guide the search. Gaussian processes are the de facto surrogate model due to their ability to capture uncertainty but they make strong assumptions about the observation noise, which might not be warranted in practice. In this work, we propose to leverage conformalized quantile regression which makes minimal assumptions about the observation noise and, as a result, models the target function in a more realistic and robust fashion which translates to quicker HPO convergence on empirical benchmarks. To apply our method in a multi-fidelity setting, we propose a simple, yet effective, technique that aggregates observed results across different resource levels and outperforms conventional methods across many empirical tasks.

In this paper, we address the problem of human trajectory forecasting, which aims to predict the inherently multi-modal future movements of humans based on their past trajectories and other contextual cues. We propose a novel motion prediction conditional flow matching model, termed MoFlow, to predict K-shot future trajectories for all agents in a given scene. We design a novel flow matching loss function that not only ensures at least one of the K sets of future trajectories is accurate but also encourages all K sets of future trajectories to be diverse and plausible. Furthermore, by leveraging the implicit maximum likelihood estimation (IMLE), we propose a novel distillation method for flow models that only requires samples from the teacher model. Extensive experiments on the real-world datasets, including SportVU NBA games, ETH-UCY, and SDD, demonstrate that both our teacher flow model and the IMLE-distilled student model achieve state-of-the-art performance. These models can generate diverse trajectories that are physically and socially plausible. Moreover, our one-step student model is 100 times faster than the teacher flow model during sampling. The code, model, and data are available at our project page: https://moflow-imle.github.io

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

Numerical simulations in climate, chemistry, or astrophysics are computationally too expensive for uncertainty quantification or parameter-exploration at high-resolution. Reduced-order or surrogate models are multiple orders of magnitude faster, but traditional surrogates are inflexible or inaccurate and pure machine learning (ML)-based surrogates too data-hungry. We propose a hybrid, flexible surrogate model that exploits known physics for simulating large-scale dynamics and limits learning to the hard-to-model term, which is called parametrization or closure and captures the effect of fine- onto large-scale dynamics. Leveraging neural operators, we are the first to learn grid-independent, non-local, and flexible parametrizations. Our multiscale neural operator is motivated by a rich literature in multiscale modeling, has quasilinear runtime complexity, is more accurate or flexible than state-of-the-art parametrizations and demonstrated on the chaotic equation multiscale Lorenz96.

Robust and effective scaling of models from small to large width typically requires the precise adjustment of many algorithmic and architectural details, such as parameterization and optimizer choices. In this work, we propose a new perspective on parameterization by investigating a key assumption in prior work about the alignment between parameters and data and derive new theoretical results under weaker assumptions and a broader set of optimizers. Our extensive empirical investigation includes tens of thousands of models trained with all combinations of three optimizers, four parameterizations, several alignment assumptions, more than a dozen learning rates, and fourteen model sizes up to 26.8B parameters. We find that the best learning rate scaling prescription would often have been excluded by the assumptions in prior work. Our results show that all parameterizations, not just maximal update parameterization (muP), can achieve hyperparameter transfer; moreover, our novel per-layer learning rate prescription for standard parameterization outperforms muP. Finally, we demonstrate that an overlooked aspect of parameterization, the epsilon parameter in Adam, must be scaled correctly to avoid gradient underflow and propose Adam-atan2, a new numerically stable, scale-invariant version of Adam that eliminates the epsilon hyperparameter entirely.

Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs. In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves warrants a Bayesian approach, existing methods are (i) overly restrictive, and/or (ii) computationally expensive. We describe the first application of prior-data fitted neural networks (PFNs) in this context. A PFN is a transformer, pre-trained on data generated from a prior, to perform approximate Bayesian inference in a single forward pass. We propose LC-PFN, a PFN trained to extrapolate 10 million artificial right-censored learning curves generated from a parametric prior proposed in prior art using MCMC. We demonstrate that LC-PFN can approximate the posterior predictive distribution more accurately than MCMC, while being over 10 000 times faster. We also show that the same LC-PFN achieves competitive performance extrapolating a total of 20 000 real learning curves from four learning curve benchmarks (LCBench, NAS-Bench-201, Taskset, and PD1) that stem from training a wide range of model architectures (MLPs, CNNs, RNNs, and Transformers) on 53 different datasets with varying input modalities (tabular, image, text, and protein data). Finally, we investigate its potential in the context of model selection and find that a simple LC-PFN based predictive early stopping criterion obtains 2 - 6x speed-ups on 45 of these datasets, at virtually no overhead.

Since self-attention layers in Transformers are permutation invariant by design, positional encodings must be explicitly incorporated to enable spatial understanding. However, fixed-size lookup tables used in traditional learnable position embeddings (PEs) limit extrapolation capabilities beyond pre-trained sequence lengths. Expert-designed methods such as ALiBi and RoPE, mitigate this limitation but demand extensive modifications for adapting to new modalities, underscoring fundamental challenges in adaptability and scalability. In this work, we present SeqPE, a unified and fully learnable position encoding framework that represents each n-dimensional position index as a symbolic sequence and employs a lightweight sequential position encoder to learn their embeddings in an end-to-end manner. To regularize SeqPE's embedding space, we introduce two complementary objectives: a contrastive objective that aligns embedding distances with a predefined position-distance function, and a knowledge distillation loss that anchors out-of-distribution position embeddings to in-distribution teacher representations, further enhancing extrapolation performance. Experiments across language modeling, long-context question answering, and 2D image classification demonstrate that SeqPE not only surpasses strong baselines in perplexity, exact match (EM), and accuracy--particularly under context length extrapolation--but also enables seamless generalization to multi-dimensional inputs without requiring manual architectural redesign. We release our code, data, and checkpoints at https://github.com/ghrua/seqpe.

Personalized vaccines and T-cell immunotherapies depend critically on identifying peptide-MHC class I (pMHC-I) interactions capable of eliciting potent immune responses. However, current benchmarks and models inherit biases present in mass-spectrometry and binding-assay datasets, limiting discovery of novel peptide ligands. To address this issue, we introduce a structure-guided benchmark of pMHC-I peptides designed using diffusion models conditioned on crystal structure interaction distances. Spanning twenty high-priority HLA alleles, this benchmark is independent of previously characterized peptides yet reproduces canonical anchor residue preferences, indicating structural generalization without experimental dataset bias. Using this resource, we demonstrate that state-of-the-art sequence-based predictors perform poorly at recognizing the binding potential of these structurally stable designs, indicating allele-specific limitations invisible in conventional evaluations. Our geometry-aware design pipeline yields peptides with high predicted structural integrity and higher residue diversity than existing datasets, representing a key resource for unbiased model training and evaluation. Our code, and data are available at: https://github.com/sermare/struct-mhc-dev.

We consider non-clairvoyant scheduling with online precedence constraints, where an algorithm is oblivious to any job dependencies and learns about a job only if all of its predecessors have been completed. Given strong impossibility results in classical competitive analysis, we investigate the problem in a learning-augmented setting, where an algorithm has access to predictions without any quality guarantee. We discuss different prediction models: novel problem-specific models as well as general ones, which have been proposed in previous works. We present lower bounds and algorithmic upper bounds for different precedence topologies, and thereby give a structured overview on which and how additional (possibly erroneous) information helps for designing better algorithms. Along the way, we also improve bounds on traditional competitive ratios for existing algorithms.

Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE) performs remarkably on language models, especially for length extrapolation of Transformers. However, the impacts of RoPE on computer vision domains have been underexplored, even though RoPE appears capable of enhancing Vision Transformer (ViT) performance in a way similar to the language domain. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of RoPE when applied to ViTs, utilizing practical implementations of RoPE for 2D vision data. The analysis reveals that RoPE demonstrates impressive extrapolation performance, i.e., maintaining precision while increasing image resolution at inference. It eventually leads to performance improvement for ImageNet-1k, COCO detection, and ADE-20k segmentation. We believe this study provides thorough guidelines to apply RoPE into ViT, promising improved backbone performance with minimal extra computational overhead. Our code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/naver-ai/rope-vit

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to provide uncertainty quantification in language models for the specific task of multiple-choice question-answering. We find that the uncertainty estimates from conformal prediction are tightly correlated with prediction accuracy. This observation can be useful for downstream applications such as selective classification and filtering out low-quality predictions. We also investigate the exchangeability assumption required by conformal prediction to out-of-subject questions, which may be a more realistic scenario for many practical applications. Our work contributes towards more trustworthy and reliable usage of large language models in safety-critical situations, where robust guarantees of error rate are required.

Since the introduction of the transformer model by Vaswani et al. (2017), a fundamental question has yet to be answered: how does a model achieve extrapolation at inference time for sequences that are longer than it saw during training? We first show that extrapolation can be enabled by simply changing the position representation method, though we find that current methods do not allow for efficient extrapolation. We therefore introduce a simpler and more efficient position method, Attention with Linear Biases (ALiBi). ALiBi does not add positional embeddings to word embeddings; instead, it biases query-key attention scores with a penalty that is proportional to their distance. We show that this method trains a 1.3 billion parameter model on input sequences of length 1024 that extrapolates to input sequences of length 2048, achieving the same perplexity as a sinusoidal position embedding model trained on inputs of length 2048 but training 11% faster and using 11% less memory. ALiBi's inductive bias towards recency also leads it to outperform multiple strong position methods on the WikiText-103 benchmark.

Code generation aims to understand the problem description and generate corresponding code snippets, where existing works generally decompose such complex tasks into intermediate steps by prompting strategies, such as Chain-of-Thought and its variants. While these studies have achieved some success, their effectiveness is highly dependent on the capabilities of advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-4, particularly in terms of API calls, which significantly limits their practical applicability. Consequently, how to enhance the code generation capabilities of small and medium-scale code LLMs without significantly increasing training costs is an appealing challenge. In this paper, we suggest that code comments are the natural logic pivot between natural language and code language and propose using comments to boost the code generation ability of code LLMs. Concretely, we propose MANGO (comMents As Natural loGic pivOts), including a comment contrastive training strategy and a corresponding logical comment decoding strategy. Experiments are performed on HumanEval and MBPP, utilizing StarCoder and WizardCoder as backbone models, and encompassing model parameter sizes between 3B and 7B. The results indicate that MANGO significantly improves the code pass rate based on the strong baselines. Meanwhile, the robustness of the logical comment decoding strategy is notably higher than the Chain-of-thoughts prompting. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/pppa2019/Mango.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that besides achieving state-of-the-art performance, our method significantly performs better on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.

Capturing high-dimensional social interactions and feasible futures is essential for predicting trajectories. To address this complex nature, several attempts have been devoted to reducing the dimensionality of the output variables via parametric curve fitting such as the B\'ezier curve and B-spline function. However, these functions, which originate in computer graphics fields, are not suitable to account for socially acceptable human dynamics. In this paper, we present EigenTrajectory (ET), a trajectory prediction approach that uses a novel trajectory descriptor to form a compact space, known here as ET space, in place of Euclidean space, for representing pedestrian movements. We first reduce the complexity of the trajectory descriptor via a low-rank approximation. We transform the pedestrians' history paths into our ET space represented by spatio-temporal principle components, and feed them into off-the-shelf trajectory forecasting models. The inputs and outputs of the models as well as social interactions are all gathered and aggregated in the corresponding ET space. Lastly, we propose a trajectory anchor-based refinement method to cover all possible futures in the proposed ET space. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our EigenTrajectory predictor can significantly improve both the prediction accuracy and reliability of existing trajectory forecasting models on public benchmarks, indicating that the proposed descriptor is suited to represent pedestrian behaviors. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/inhwanbae/EigenTrajectory .

Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with conflicting predictions. We introduce formal measures to evaluate the severity of predictive multiplicity and develop integer programming tools to compute them exactly for linear classification problems. We apply our tools to measure predictive multiplicity in recidivism prediction problems. Our results show that real-world datasets may admit competing models that assign wildly conflicting predictions, and motivate the need to measure and report predictive multiplicity in model development.

Hypernetworks, neural networks that predict the parameters of another neural network, are powerful models that have been successfully used in diverse applications from image generation to multi-task learning. Unfortunately, existing hypernetworks are often challenging to train. Training typically converges far more slowly than for non-hypernetwork models, and the rate of convergence can be very sensitive to hyperparameter choices. In this work, we identify a fundamental and previously unidentified problem that contributes to the challenge of training hypernetworks: a magnitude proportionality between the inputs and outputs of the hypernetwork. We demonstrate both analytically and empirically that this can lead to unstable optimization, thereby slowing down convergence, and sometimes even preventing any learning. We present a simple solution to this problem using a revised hypernetwork formulation that we call Magnitude Invariant Parametrizations (MIP). We demonstrate the proposed solution on several hypernetwork tasks, where it consistently stabilizes training and achieves faster convergence. Furthermore, we perform a comprehensive ablation study including choices of activation function, normalization strategies, input dimensionality, and hypernetwork architecture; and find that MIP improves training in all scenarios. We provide easy-to-use code that can turn existing networks into MIP-based hypernetworks.

Perspective projection has been extensively utilized in monocular 3D object detection methods. It introduces geometric priors from 2D bounding boxes and 3D object dimensions to reduce the uncertainty of depth estimation. However, due to depth errors originating from the object's visual surface, the height of the bounding box often fails to represent the actual projected central height, which undermines the effectiveness of geometric depth. Direct prediction for the projected height unavoidably results in a loss of 2D priors, while multi-depth prediction with complex branches does not fully leverage geometric depth. This paper presents a Transformer-based monocular 3D object detection method called MonoDGP, which adopts perspective-invariant geometry errors to modify the projection formula. We also try to systematically discuss and explain the mechanisms and efficacy behind geometry errors, which serve as a simple but effective alternative to multi-depth prediction. Additionally, MonoDGP decouples the depth-guided decoder and constructs a 2D decoder only dependent on visual features, providing 2D priors and initializing object queries without the disturbance of 3D detection. To further optimize and fine-tune input tokens of the transformer decoder, we also introduce a Region Segment Head (RSH) that generates enhanced features and segment embeddings. Our monocular method demonstrates state-of-the-art performance on the KITTI benchmark without extra data. Code is available at https://github.com/PuFanqi23/MonoDGP.

The popularity of pre-trained large models has revolutionized downstream tasks across diverse fields, such as language, vision, and multi-modality. To minimize the adaption cost for downstream tasks, many Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) techniques are proposed for language and 2D image pre-trained models. However, the specialized PEFT method for 3D pre-trained models is still under-explored. To this end, we introduce Point-PEFT, a novel framework for adapting point cloud pre-trained models with minimal learnable parameters. Specifically, for a pre-trained 3D model, we freeze most of its parameters, and only tune the newly added PEFT modules on downstream tasks, which consist of a Point-prior Prompt and a Geometry-aware Adapter. The Point-prior Prompt adopts a set of learnable prompt tokens, for which we propose to construct a memory bank with domain-specific knowledge, and utilize a parameter-free attention to enhance the prompt tokens. The Geometry-aware Adapter aims to aggregate point cloud features within spatial neighborhoods to capture fine-grained geometric information through local interactions. Extensive experiments indicate that our Point-PEFT can achieve better performance than the full fine-tuning on various downstream tasks, while using only 5% of the trainable parameters, demonstrating the efficiency and effectiveness of our approach. Code is released at https://github.com/Ivan-Tang-3D/Point-PEFT.

Paraphrase generation has been widely used in various downstream tasks. Most tasks benefit mainly from high quality paraphrases, namely those that are semantically similar to, yet linguistically diverse from, the original sentence. Generating high-quality paraphrases is challenging as it becomes increasingly hard to preserve meaning as linguistic diversity increases. Recent works achieve nice results by controlling specific aspects of the paraphrase, such as its syntactic tree. However, they do not allow to directly control the quality of the generated paraphrase, and suffer from low flexibility and scalability. Here we propose QCPG, a quality-guided controlled paraphrase generation model, that allows directly controlling the quality dimensions. Furthermore, we suggest a method that given a sentence, identifies points in the quality control space that are expected to yield optimal generated paraphrases. We show that our method is able to generate paraphrases which maintain the original meaning while achieving higher diversity than the uncontrolled baseline. The models, the code, and the data can be found in https://github.com/IBM/quality-controlled-paraphrase-generation.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

Identifying drug-target interactions is essential for developing effective therapeutics. Binding affinity quantifies these interactions, and traditional approaches rely on computationally intensive 3D structural data. In contrast, language models can efficiently process sequential data, offering an alternative approach to molecular representation. In the current study, we introduce BAPULM, an innovative sequence-based framework that leverages the chemical latent representations of proteins via ProtT5-XL-U50 and ligands through MolFormer, eliminating reliance on complex 3D configurations. Our approach was validated extensively on benchmark datasets, achieving scoring power (R) values of 0.925 pm 0.043, 0.914 pm 0.004, and 0.8132 pm 0.001 on benchmark1k2101, Test2016_290, and CSAR-HiQ_36, respectively. These findings indicate the robustness and accuracy of BAPULM across diverse datasets and underscore the potential of sequence-based models in-silico drug discovery, offering a scalable alternative to 3D-centric methods for screening potential ligands.

We address the task of predicting what parts of an object can open and how they move when they do so. The input is a single image of an object, and as output we detect what parts of the object can open, and the motion parameters describing the articulation of each openable part. To tackle this task, we create two datasets of 3D objects: OPDSynth based on existing synthetic objects, and OPDReal based on RGBD reconstructions of real objects. We then design OPDRCNN, a neural architecture that detects openable parts and predicts their motion parameters. Our experiments show that this is a challenging task especially when considering generalization across object categories, and the limited amount of information in a single image. Our architecture outperforms baselines and prior work especially for RGB image inputs. Short video summary at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P85iCaD0rfc

Efficient LLM pre-training requires well-tuned hyperparameters (HPs), including learning rate {\eta} and weight decay {\lambda}. We study scaling laws for HPs: formulas for how to scale HPs as we scale model size N, dataset size D, and batch size B. Recent work suggests the AdamW timescale, B/({\eta}{\lambda}D), should remain constant across training settings, and we verify the implication that optimal {\lambda} scales linearly with B, for a fixed N,D. However, as N,D scale, we show the optimal timescale obeys a precise power law in the tokens-per-parameter ratio, D/N. This law thus provides a method to accurately predict {\lambda}opt in advance of large-scale training. We also study scaling laws for optimal batch size Bopt (the B enabling lowest loss at a given N,D) and critical batch size Bcrit (the B beyond which further data parallelism becomes ineffective). In contrast with prior work, we find both Bopt and Bcrit scale as power laws in D, independent of model size, N. Finally, we analyze how these findings inform the real-world selection of Pareto-optimal N and D under dual training time and compute objectives.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

This paper presents a Simple and effIcient Motion Prediction baseLine (SIMPL) for autonomous vehicles. Unlike conventional agent-centric methods with high accuracy but repetitive computations and scene-centric methods with compromised accuracy and generalizability, SIMPL delivers real-time, accurate motion predictions for all relevant traffic participants. To achieve improvements in both accuracy and inference speed, we propose a compact and efficient global feature fusion module that performs directed message passing in a symmetric manner, enabling the network to forecast future motion for all road users in a single feed-forward pass and mitigating accuracy loss caused by viewpoint shifting. Additionally, we investigate the continuous trajectory parameterization using Bernstein basis polynomials in trajectory decoding, allowing evaluations of states and their higher-order derivatives at any desired time point, which is valuable for downstream planning tasks. As a strong baseline, SIMPL exhibits highly competitive performance on Argoverse 1 & 2 motion forecasting benchmarks compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, its lightweight design and low inference latency make SIMPL highly extensible and promising for real-world onboard deployment. We open-source the code at https://github.com/HKUST-Aerial-Robotics/SIMPL.

We prove an inverse approximation theorem for the approximation of nonlinear sequence-to-sequence relationships using recurrent neural networks (RNNs). This is a so-called Bernstein-type result in approximation theory, which deduces properties of a target function under the assumption that it can be effectively approximated by a hypothesis space. In particular, we show that nonlinear sequence relationships that can be stably approximated by nonlinear RNNs must have an exponential decaying memory structure - a notion that can be made precise. This extends the previously identified curse of memory in linear RNNs into the general nonlinear setting, and quantifies the essential limitations of the RNN architecture for learning sequential relationships with long-term memory. Based on the analysis, we propose a principled reparameterization method to overcome the limitations. Our theoretical results are confirmed by numerical experiments. The code has been released in https://github.com/radarFudan/Curse-of-memory

Humans have the ability to adapt the type of information they use, the procedure they employ, and the amount of time they spend when solving problems. However, most standard neural networks have a fixed function type and computation budget regardless of the sample's nature or difficulty. Adaptivity is a powerful paradigm as it not only imbues practitioners with flexibility pertaining to the downstream usage of these models but can also serve as a powerful inductive bias for solving certain challenging classes of problems. In this work, we introduce a new approach called AdaTape, which allows for dynamic computation in neural networks through adaptive tape tokens. AdaTape utilizes an elastic input sequence by equipping an architecture with a dynamic read-and-write tape. Specifically, we adaptively generate input sequences using tape tokens obtained from a tape bank which can be either trainable or derived from input data. We examine the challenges and requirements to obtain dynamic sequence content and length, and propose the Adaptive Tape Reading (ATR) algorithm to achieve both goals. Through extensive experiments on image recognition tasks, we show that AdaTape can achieve better performance while maintaining the computational cost. To facilitate further research, we have released code at https://github.com/google-research/scenic.

The cost of hyperparameter tuning in deep learning has been rising with model sizes, prompting practitioners to find new tuning methods using a proxy of smaller networks. One such proposal uses muP parameterized networks, where the optimal hyperparameters for small width networks transfer to networks with arbitrarily large width. However, in this scheme, hyperparameters do not transfer across depths. As a remedy, we study residual networks with a residual branch scale of 1/text{depth} in combination with the muP parameterization. We provide experiments demonstrating that residual architectures including convolutional ResNets and Vision Transformers trained with this parameterization exhibit transfer of optimal hyperparameters across width and depth on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. Furthermore, our empirical findings are supported and motivated by theory. Using recent developments in the dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) description of neural network learning dynamics, we show that this parameterization of ResNets admits a well-defined feature learning joint infinite-width and infinite-depth limit and show convergence of finite-size network dynamics towards this limit.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

Twenty-seven years ago, E. Freuder highlighted that "Constraint programming represents one of the closest approaches computer science has yet made to the Holy Grail of programming: the user states the problem, the computer solves it". Nowadays, CP users have great modeling tools available (like Minizinc and CPMpy), allowing them to formulate the problem and then let a solver do the rest of the job, getting closer to the stated goal. However, this still requires the CP user to know the formalism and respect it. Another significant challenge lies in the expertise required to effectively model combinatorial problems. All this limits the wider adoption of CP. In this position paper, we investigate a possible approach to leverage pre-trained Large Language Models to extract models from textual problem descriptions. More specifically, we take inspiration from the Natural Language Processing for Optimization (NL4OPT) challenge and present early results with a decomposition-based prompting approach to GPT Models.

Aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences is critical for real-world deployment, yet existing methods like RLHF face computational and stability challenges. While DPO establishes an offline paradigm with single hyperparameter beta, subsequent methods like SimPO reintroduce complexity through dual parameters (beta, gamma). We propose {ReLU-based Preference Optimization (RePO)}, a streamlined algorithm that eliminates beta via two advances: (1) retaining SimPO's reference-free margins but removing beta through gradient analysis, and (2) adopting a ReLU-based max-margin loss that naturally filters trivial pairs. Theoretically, RePO is characterized as SimPO's limiting case (beta to infty), where the logistic weighting collapses to binary thresholding, forming a convex envelope of the 0-1 loss. Empirical results on AlpacaEval 2 and Arena-Hard show that RePO outperforms DPO and SimPO across multiple base models, requiring only one hyperparameter to tune.

Clinical trials are crucial for drug development but are time consuming, expensive, and often burdensome on patients. More importantly, clinical trials face uncertain outcomes due to issues with efficacy, safety, or problems with patient recruitment. If we were better at predicting the results of clinical trials, we could avoid having to run trials that will inevitably fail more resources could be devoted to trials that are likely to succeed. In this paper, we propose Hierarchical INteraction Network (HINT) for more general, clinical trial outcome predictions for all diseases based on a comprehensive and diverse set of web data including molecule information of the drugs, target disease information, trial protocol and biomedical knowledge. HINT first encode these multi-modal data into latent embeddings, where an imputation module is designed to handle missing data. Next, these embeddings will be fed into the knowledge embedding module to generate knowledge embeddings that are pretrained using external knowledge on pharmaco-kinetic properties and trial risk from the web. Then the interaction graph module will connect all the embedding via domain knowledge to fully capture various trial components and their complex relations as well as their influences on trial outcomes. Finally, HINT learns a dynamic attentive graph neural network to predict trial outcome. Comprehensive experimental results show that HINT achieves strong predictive performance, obtaining 0.772, 0.607, 0.623, 0.703 on PR-AUC for Phase I, II, III, and indication outcome prediction, respectively. It also consistently outperforms the best baseline method by up to 12.4\% on PR-AUC.

Scoring systems are linear classification models that only require users to add, subtract and multiply a few small numbers in order to make a prediction. These models are in widespread use by the medical community, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be accurate and sparse, have coprime integer coefficients, and satisfy multiple operational constraints. We present a new method for creating data-driven scoring systems called a Supersparse Linear Integer Model (SLIM). SLIM scoring systems are built by solving an integer program that directly encodes measures of accuracy (the 0-1 loss) and sparsity (the ell_0-seminorm) while restricting coefficients to coprime integers. SLIM can seamlessly incorporate a wide range of operational constraints related to accuracy and sparsity, and can produce highly tailored models without parameter tuning. We provide bounds on the testing and training accuracy of SLIM scoring systems, and present a new data reduction technique that can improve scalability by eliminating a portion of the training data beforehand. Our paper includes results from a collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital Sleep Laboratory, where SLIM was used to create a highly tailored scoring system for sleep apnea screening

We propose a penalized nonparametric approach to estimating the quantile regression process (QRP) in a nonseparable model using rectifier quadratic unit (ReQU) activated deep neural networks and introduce a novel penalty function to enforce non-crossing of quantile regression curves. We establish the non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for the estimated QRP and derive the mean integrated squared error for the estimated QRP under mild smoothness and regularity conditions. To establish these non-asymptotic risk and estimation error bounds, we also develop a new error bound for approximating C^s smooth functions with s >0 and their derivatives using ReQU activated neural networks. This is a new approximation result for ReQU networks and is of independent interest and may be useful in other problems. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive with or outperforms two existing methods, including methods using reproducing kernels and random forests, for nonparametric quantile regression.

Pre-training (PT) followed by fine-tuning (FT) is an effective method for training neural networks, and has led to significant performance improvements in many domains. PT can incorporate various design choices such as task and data reweighting strategies, augmentation policies, and noise models, all of which can significantly impact the quality of representations learned. The hyperparameters introduced by these strategies therefore must be tuned appropriately. However, setting the values of these hyperparameters is challenging. Most existing methods either struggle to scale to high dimensions, are too slow and memory-intensive, or cannot be directly applied to the two-stage PT and FT learning process. In this work, we propose an efficient, gradient-based algorithm to meta-learn PT hyperparameters. We formalize the PT hyperparameter optimization problem and propose a novel method to obtain PT hyperparameter gradients by combining implicit differentiation and backpropagation through unrolled optimization. We demonstrate that our method improves predictive performance on two real-world domains. First, we optimize high-dimensional task weighting hyperparameters for multitask pre-training on protein-protein interaction graphs and improve AUROC by up to 3.9%. Second, we optimize a data augmentation neural network for self-supervised PT with SimCLR on electrocardiography data and improve AUROC by up to 1.9%.

Asymmetrical distance structures (quasimetrics) are ubiquitous in our lives and are gaining more attention in machine learning applications. Imposing such quasimetric structures in model representations has been shown to improve many tasks, including reinforcement learning (RL) and causal relation learning. In this work, we present four desirable properties in such quasimetric models, and show how prior works fail at them. We propose Interval Quasimetric Embedding (IQE), which is designed to satisfy all four criteria. On three quasimetric learning experiments, IQEs show strong approximation and generalization abilities, leading to better performance and improved efficiency over prior methods. Project Page: https://www.tongzhouwang.info/interval_quasimetric_embedding Quasimetric Learning Code Package: https://www.github.com/quasimetric-learning/torch-quasimetric

Large language models such as GPT and Llama are trained with a next-token prediction loss. In this work, we suggest that training language models to predict multiple future tokens at once results in higher sample efficiency. More specifically, at each position in the training corpus, we ask the model to predict the following n tokens using n independent output heads, operating on top of a shared model trunk. Considering multi-token prediction as an auxiliary training task, we measure improved downstream capabilities with no overhead in training time for both code and natural language models. The method is increasingly useful for larger model sizes, and keeps its appeal when training for multiple epochs. Gains are especially pronounced on generative benchmarks like coding, where our models consistently outperform strong baselines by several percentage points. Our 13B parameter models solves 12 % more problems on HumanEval and 17 % more on MBPP than comparable next-token models. Experiments on small algorithmic tasks demonstrate that multi-token prediction is favorable for the development of induction heads and algorithmic reasoning capabilities. As an additional benefit, models trained with 4-token prediction are up to 3 times faster at inference, even with large batch sizes.

Storing open-source fine-tuned models separately introduces redundancy and increases response times in applications utilizing multiple models. Delta-parameter pruning (DPP), particularly the random drop and rescale (DARE) method proposed by Yu et al., addresses this by pruning the majority of delta parameters--the differences between fine-tuned and pre-trained model weights--while typically maintaining minimal performance loss. However, DARE fails when either the pruning rate or the magnitude of the delta parameters is large. We highlight two key reasons for this failure: (1) an excessively large rescaling factor as pruning rates increase, and (2) high mean and variance in the delta parameters. To push DARE's limits, we introduce DAREx (DARE the eXtreme), which features two algorithmic improvements: (1) DAREx-q, a rescaling factor modification that significantly boosts performance at high pruning rates (e.g., >30 % on COLA and SST2 for encoder models, with even greater gains in decoder models), and (2) DAREx-L2, which combines DARE with AdamR, an in-training method that applies appropriate delta regularization before DPP. We also demonstrate that DAREx-q can be seamlessly combined with vanilla parameter-efficient fine-tuning techniques like LoRA and can facilitate structural DPP. Additionally, we revisit the application of importance-based pruning techniques within DPP, demonstrating that they outperform random-based methods when delta parameters are large. Through this comprehensive study, we develop a pipeline for selecting the most appropriate DPP method under various practical scenarios.

In science and medicine, model interpretations may be reported as discoveries of natural phenomena or used to guide patient treatments. In such high-stakes tasks, false discoveries may lead investigators astray. These applications would therefore benefit from control over the finite-sample error rate of interpretations. We reframe black box model interpretability as a multiple hypothesis testing problem. The task is to discover "important" features by testing whether the model prediction is significantly different from what would be expected if the features were replaced with uninformative counterfactuals. We propose two testing methods: one that provably controls the false discovery rate but which is not yet feasible for large-scale applications, and an approximate testing method which can be applied to real-world data sets. In simulation, both tests have high power relative to existing interpretability methods. When applied to state-of-the-art vision and language models, the framework selects features that intuitively explain model predictions. The resulting explanations have the additional advantage that they are themselves easy to interpret.

The rise of language models such as BERT allows for high-quality text paraphrasing. This is a problem to academic integrity, as it is difficult to differentiate between original and machine-generated content. We propose a benchmark consisting of paraphrased articles using recent language models relying on the Transformer architecture. Our contribution fosters future research of paraphrase detection systems as it offers a large collection of aligned original and paraphrased documents, a study regarding its structure, classification experiments with state-of-the-art systems, and we make our findings publicly available.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

There is growing evidence that pretraining on high quality, carefully thought-out tokens such as code or mathematics plays an important role in improving the reasoning abilities of large language models. For example, Minerva, a PaLM model finetuned on billions of tokens of mathematical documents from arXiv and the web, reported dramatically improved performance on problems that require quantitative reasoning. However, because all known open source web datasets employ preprocessing that does not faithfully preserve mathematical notation, the benefits of large scale training on quantitive web documents are unavailable to the research community. We introduce OpenWebMath, an open dataset inspired by these works containing 14.7B tokens of mathematical webpages from Common Crawl. We describe in detail our method for extracting text and LaTeX content and removing boilerplate from HTML documents, as well as our methods for quality filtering and deduplication. Additionally, we run small-scale experiments by training 1.4B parameter language models on OpenWebMath, showing that models trained on 14.7B tokens of our dataset surpass the performance of models trained on over 20x the amount of general language data. We hope that our dataset, openly released on the Hugging Face Hub, will help spur advances in the reasoning abilities of large language models.

Recently pre-trained language representation models such as BERT have shown great success when fine-tuned on downstream tasks including information retrieval (IR). However, pre-training objectives tailored for ad-hoc retrieval have not been well explored. In this paper, we propose Pre-training with Representative wOrds Prediction (PROP) for ad-hoc retrieval. PROP is inspired by the classical statistical language model for IR, specifically the query likelihood model, which assumes that the query is generated as the piece of text representative of the "ideal" document. Based on this idea, we construct the representative words prediction (ROP) task for pre-training. Given an input document, we sample a pair of word sets according to the document language model, where the set with higher likelihood is deemed as more representative of the document. We then pre-train the Transformer model to predict the pairwise preference between the two word sets, jointly with the Masked Language Model (MLM) objective. By further fine-tuning on a variety of representative downstream ad-hoc retrieval tasks, PROP achieves significant improvements over baselines without pre-training or with other pre-training methods. We also show that PROP can achieve exciting performance under both the zero- and low-resource IR settings. The code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/Albert-Ma/PROP.

Prototypical part network (ProtoPNet) methods have been designed to achieve interpretable classification by associating predictions with a set of training prototypes, which we refer to as trivial prototypes because they are trained to lie far from the classification boundary in the feature space. Note that it is possible to make an analogy between ProtoPNet and support vector machine (SVM) given that the classification from both methods relies on computing similarity with a set of training points (i.e., trivial prototypes in ProtoPNet, and support vectors in SVM). However, while trivial prototypes are located far from the classification boundary, support vectors are located close to this boundary, and we argue that this discrepancy with the well-established SVM theory can result in ProtoPNet models with inferior classification accuracy. In this paper, we aim to improve the classification of ProtoPNet with a new method to learn support prototypes that lie near the classification boundary in the feature space, as suggested by the SVM theory. In addition, we target the improvement of classification results with a new model, named ST-ProtoPNet, which exploits our support prototypes and the trivial prototypes to provide more effective classification. Experimental results on CUB-200-2011, Stanford Cars, and Stanford Dogs datasets demonstrate that ST-ProtoPNet achieves state-of-the-art classification accuracy and interpretability results. We also show that the proposed support prototypes tend to be better localised in the object of interest rather than in the background region.

Scaling data and compute is critical to the success of machine learning. However, scaling demands predictability: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from small-scale runs, without running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show that value-based off-policy RL methods are predictable despite community lore regarding their pathological behavior. First, we show that data and compute requirements to attain a given performance level lie on a Pareto frontier, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can predict this data requirement when given more compute, and this compute requirement when given more data. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of a total resource budget across data and compute for a given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between hyperparameters, which is used to manage effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

Relative positional embeddings (RPE) have received considerable attention since RPEs effectively model the relative distance among tokens and enable length extrapolation. We propose KERPLE, a framework that generalizes relative position embedding for extrapolation by kernelizing positional differences. We achieve this goal using conditionally positive definite (CPD) kernels, a class of functions known for generalizing distance metrics. To maintain the inner product interpretation of self-attention, we show that a CPD kernel can be transformed into a PD kernel by adding a constant offset. This offset is implicitly absorbed in the Softmax normalization during self-attention. The diversity of CPD kernels allows us to derive various RPEs that enable length extrapolation in a principled way. Experiments demonstrate that the logarithmic variant achieves excellent extrapolation performance on three large language modeling datasets. Our implementation and pretrained checkpoints are released at https://github.com/chijames/KERPLE.git.

A critical problem in the field of post hoc explainability is the lack of a common foundational goal among methods. For example, some methods are motivated by function approximation, some by game theoretic notions, and some by obtaining clean visualizations. This fragmentation of goals causes not only an inconsistent conceptual understanding of explanations but also the practical challenge of not knowing which method to use when. In this work, we begin to address these challenges by unifying eight popular post hoc explanation methods (LIME, C-LIME, KernelSHAP, Occlusion, Vanilla Gradients, Gradients x Input, SmoothGrad, and Integrated Gradients). We show that these methods all perform local function approximation of the black-box model, differing only in the neighbourhood and loss function used to perform the approximation. This unification enables us to (1) state a no free lunch theorem for explanation methods, demonstrating that no method can perform optimally across all neighbourhoods, and (2) provide a guiding principle to choose among methods based on faithfulness to the black-box model. We empirically validate these theoretical results using various real-world datasets, model classes, and prediction tasks. By bringing diverse explanation methods into a common framework, this work (1) advances the conceptual understanding of these methods, revealing their shared local function approximation objective, properties, and relation to one another, and (2) guides the use of these methods in practice, providing a principled approach to choose among methods and paving the way for the creation of new ones.

Surgical future prediction, driven by real-time AI analysis of surgical video, is critical for operating room safety and efficiency. It provides actionable insights into upcoming events, their timing, and risks-enabling better resource allocation, timely instrument readiness, and early warnings for complications (e.g., bleeding, bile duct injury). Despite this need, current surgical AI research focuses on understanding what is happening rather than predicting future events. Existing methods target specific tasks in isolation, lacking unified approaches that span both short-term (action triplets, events) and long-term horizons (remaining surgery duration, phase transitions). These methods rely on coarse-grained supervision while fine-grained surgical action triplets and steps remain underexplored. Furthermore, methods based only on future feature prediction struggle to generalize across different surgical contexts and procedures. We address these limits by reframing surgical future prediction as state-change learning. Rather than forecasting raw observations, our approach classifies state transitions between current and future timesteps. We introduce SurgFUTR, implementing this through a teacher-student architecture. Video clips are compressed into state representations via Sinkhorn-Knopp clustering; the teacher network learns from both current and future clips, while the student network predicts future states from current videos alone, guided by our Action Dynamics (ActDyn) module. We establish SFPBench with five prediction tasks spanning short-term (triplets, events) and long-term (remaining surgery duration, phase and step transitions) horizons. Experiments across four datasets and three procedures show consistent improvements. Cross-procedure transfer validates generalizability.

Can we better anticipate an actor's future actions (e.g. mix eggs) by knowing what commonly happens after his/her current action (e.g. crack eggs)? What if we also know the longer-term goal of the actor (e.g. making egg fried rice)? The long-term action anticipation (LTA) task aims to predict an actor's future behavior from video observations in the form of verb and noun sequences, and it is crucial for human-machine interaction. We propose to formulate the LTA task from two perspectives: a bottom-up approach that predicts the next actions autoregressively by modeling temporal dynamics; and a top-down approach that infers the goal of the actor and plans the needed procedure to accomplish the goal. We hypothesize that large language models (LLMs), which have been pretrained on procedure text data (e.g. recipes, how-tos), have the potential to help LTA from both perspectives. It can help provide the prior knowledge on the possible next actions, and infer the goal given the observed part of a procedure, respectively. To leverage the LLMs, we propose a two-stage framework, AntGPT. It first recognizes the actions already performed in the observed videos and then asks an LLM to predict the future actions via conditioned generation, or to infer the goal and plan the whole procedure by chain-of-thought prompting. Empirical results on the Ego4D LTA v1 and v2 benchmarks, EPIC-Kitchens-55, as well as EGTEA GAZE+ demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. AntGPT achieves state-of-the-art performance on all above benchmarks, and can successfully infer the goal and thus perform goal-conditioned "counterfactual" prediction via qualitative analysis. Code and model will be released at https://brown-palm.github.io/AntGPT

Networks provide a powerful formalism for modeling complex systems by using a model of pairwise interactions. But much of the structure within these systems involves interactions that take place among more than two nodes at once; for example, communication within a group rather than person-to person, collaboration among a team rather than a pair of coauthors, or biological interaction between a set of molecules rather than just two. Such higher-order interactions are ubiquitous, but their empirical study has received limited attention, and little is known about possible organizational principles of such structures. Here we study the temporal evolution of 19 datasets with explicit accounting for higher-order interactions. We show that there is a rich variety of structure in our datasets but datasets from the same system types have consistent patterns of higher-order structure. Furthermore, we find that tie strength and edge density are competing positive indicators of higher-order organization, and these trends are consistent across interactions involving differing numbers of nodes. To systematically further the study of theories for such higher-order structures, we propose higher-order link prediction as a benchmark problem to assess models and algorithms that predict higher-order structure. We find a fundamental differences from traditional pairwise link prediction, with a greater role for local rather than long-range information in predicting the appearance of new interactions.

We present PrediTree, the first comprehensive open-source dataset designed for training and evaluating tree height prediction models at sub-meter resolution. This dataset combines very high-resolution (0.5m) LiDAR-derived canopy height maps, spatially aligned with multi-temporal and multi-spectral imagery, across diverse forest ecosystems in France, totaling 3,141,568 images. PrediTree addresses a critical gap in forest monitoring capabilities by enabling the training of deep learning methods that can predict tree growth based on multiple past observations. %Initially focused on French forests, PrediTree is designed as an expanding resource with ongoing efforts to incorporate data from other countries. To make use of this PrediTree dataset, we propose an encoder-decoder framework that requires the multi-temporal multi-spectral imagery and the relative time differences in years between the canopy height map timestamp (target) and each image acquisition date for which this framework predicts the canopy height. The conducted experiments demonstrate that a U-Net architecture trained on the PrediTree dataset provides the highest masked mean squared error of 11.78%, outperforming the next-best architecture, ResNet-50, by around 12%, and cutting the error of the same experiments but on fewer bands (red, green, blue only), by around 30%. This dataset is publicly available on URL{HuggingFace}, and both processing and training codebases are available on URL{GitHub}.

In this paper, we present Paramanu-Ganita, a 208 million parameter novel Auto Regressive (AR) decoder based language model on mathematics. The model is pretrained from scratch at context size of 4096 on our curated mixed mathematical corpus. We evaluate our model on both perplexity metric and GSM8k mathematical benchmark. Paramanu-Ganita despite being 35 times smaller than 7B LLMs, outperformed generalist LLMs such as LLaMa-1 7B by 28.4% points, LLaMa-2 7B by 27.6% points, Falcon 7B by 32.6% points, PaLM 8B by 35.3% points, and math specialised LLMs such as Minerva 8B by 23.2% points, and LLEMMA-7B by 3.0% points in GSM8k test accuracy metric respectively. Paramanu-Ganita also outperformed giant LLMs like PaLM 62B by 6.4% points, Falcon 40B by 19.8% points, LLaMa-1 33B by 3.8% points and Vicuna 13B by 11.8% points respectively. The large significant margin improvement in performance of our math model over the existing LLMs signifies that reasoning capabilities of language model are just not restricted to LLMs with humongous number of parameters. Paramanu-Ganita took 146 hours of A100 training whereas math specialised LLM, LLEMMA 7B, was trained for 23,000 A100 hours of training equivalent. Thus, our approach of pretraining powerful domain specialised language models from scratch for domain adaptation is much more cost-effective than performing continual training of LLMs for domain adaptation. Hence, we conclude that for strong mathematical reasoning abilities of language model, we do not need giant LLMs and immense computing power to our end. In the end, we want to point out that we have only trained Paramanu-Ganita only on a part of our entire mathematical corpus and yet to explore the full potential of our model.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Model selection/optimization in conformal inference is challenging, since it may break the exchangeability between labeled and unlabeled data. We study this problem in the context of conformal selection, which uses conformal p-values to select ``interesting'' instances with large unobserved labels from a pool of unlabeled data, while controlling the FDR in finite sample. For validity, existing solutions require the model choice to be independent of the data used to construct the p-values and calibrate the selection set. However, when presented with many model choices and limited labeled data, it is desirable to (i) select the best model in a data-driven manner, and (ii) mitigate power loss due to sample splitting. This paper presents OptCS, a general framework that allows valid statistical testing (selection) after flexible data-driven model optimization. We introduce general conditions under which OptCS constructs valid conformal p-values despite substantial data reuse and handles complex p-value dependencies to maintain finite-sample FDR control via a novel multiple testing procedure. We instantiate this general recipe to propose three FDR-controlling procedures, each optimizing the models differently: (i) selecting the most powerful one among multiple pre-trained candidate models, (ii) using all data for model fitting without sample splitting, and (iii) combining full-sample model fitting and selection. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods via simulation studies and real applications in drug discovery and alignment of large language models in radiology report generation.

Creating a 360{\deg} parametric model of a human head is a very challenging task. While recent advancements have demonstrated the efficacy of leveraging synthetic data for building such parametric head models, their performance remains inadequate in crucial areas such as expression-driven animation, hairstyle editing, and text-based modifications. In this paper, we build a dataset of artist-designed high-fidelity human heads and propose to create a novel parametric 360{\deg} renderable parametric head model from it. Our scheme decouples the facial motion/shape and facial appearance, which are represented by a classic parametric 3D mesh model and an attached neural texture, respectively. We further propose a training method for decompositing hairstyle and facial appearance, allowing free-swapping of the hairstyle. A novel inversion fitting method is presented based on single image input with high generalization and fidelity. To the best of our knowledge, our model is the first parametric 3D full-head that achieves 360{\deg} free-view synthesis, image-based fitting, appearance editing, and animation within a single model. Experiments show that facial motions and appearances are well disentangled in the parametric space, leading to SOTA performance in rendering and animating quality. The code and SynHead100 dataset are released at https://nju-3dv.github.io/projects/Head360.

Offline optimization has recently emerged as an increasingly popular approach to mitigate the prohibitively expensive cost of online experimentation. The key idea is to learn a surrogate of the black-box function that underlines the target experiment using a static (offline) dataset of its previous input-output queries. Such an approach is, however, fraught with an out-of-distribution issue where the learned surrogate becomes inaccurate outside the offline data regimes. To mitigate this, existing offline optimizers have proposed numerous conditioning techniques to prevent the learned surrogate from being too erratic. Nonetheless, such conditioning strategies are often specific to particular surrogate or search models, which might not generalize to a different model choice. This motivates us to develop a model-agnostic approach instead, which incorporates a notion of model sharpness into the training loss of the surrogate as a regularizer. Our approach is supported by a new theoretical analysis demonstrating that reducing surrogate sharpness on the offline dataset provably reduces its generalized sharpness on unseen data. Our analysis extends existing theories from bounding generalized prediction loss (on unseen data) with loss sharpness to bounding the worst-case generalized surrogate sharpness with its empirical estimate on training data, providing a new perspective on sharpness regularization. Our extensive experimentation on a diverse range of optimization tasks also shows that reducing surrogate sharpness often leads to significant improvement, marking (up to) a noticeable 9.6% performance boost. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/cuong-dm/IGNITE

In this paper, we present a pure-Python library called PyPop7 for black-box optimization (BBO). As population-based methods are becoming increasingly popular for BBO, our design goal is to provide a unified API and elegant implementations for them, particularly in high-dimensional cases. Since population-based methods suffer easily from the curse of dimensionality owing to their random sampling nature, various improvements have been proposed to alleviate this issue via exploiting possible problem structures: such as space decomposition, low-memory approximation, low-rank metric learning, variance reduction, ensemble of random subspaces, model self-adaptation, and smoothing. Now PyPop7 has covered these advances with >72 versions and variants of 13 BBO algorithm families from different research communities. Its open-source code and full-fledged documents are available at https://github.com/Evolutionary-Intelligence/pypop and https://pypop.readthedocs.io, respectively.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

We present a differentiable approach to learn the probabilistic factors used for inference by a nonparametric belief propagation algorithm. Existing nonparametric belief propagation methods rely on domain-specific features encoded in the probabilistic factors of a graphical model. In this work, we replace each crafted factor with a differentiable neural network enabling the factors to be learned using an efficient optimization routine from labeled data. By combining differentiable neural networks with an efficient belief propagation algorithm, our method learns to maintain a set of marginal posterior samples using end-to-end training. We evaluate our differentiable nonparametric belief propagation (DNBP) method on a set of articulated pose tracking tasks and compare performance with learned baselines. Results from these experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of using learned factors for tracking and suggest the practical advantage over hand-crafted approaches. The project webpage is available at: https://progress.eecs.umich.edu/projects/dnbp/ .

Large-scale pre-trained models (PTMs) such as BERT and GPT have recently achieved great success and become a milestone in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). Owing to sophisticated pre-training objectives and huge model parameters, large-scale PTMs can effectively capture knowledge from massive labeled and unlabeled data. By storing knowledge into huge parameters and fine-tuning on specific tasks, the rich knowledge implicitly encoded in huge parameters can benefit a variety of downstream tasks, which has been extensively demonstrated via experimental verification and empirical analysis. It is now the consensus of the AI community to adopt PTMs as backbone for downstream tasks rather than learning models from scratch. In this paper, we take a deep look into the history of pre-training, especially its special relation with transfer learning and self-supervised learning, to reveal the crucial position of PTMs in the AI development spectrum. Further, we comprehensively review the latest breakthroughs of PTMs. These breakthroughs are driven by the surge of computational power and the increasing availability of data, towards four important directions: designing effective architectures, utilizing rich contexts, improving computational efficiency, and conducting interpretation and theoretical analysis. Finally, we discuss a series of open problems and research directions of PTMs, and hope our view can inspire and advance the future study of PTMs.

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

With the immense growth of dataset sizes and computing resources in recent years, so-called foundation models have become popular in NLP and vision tasks. In this work, we propose to explore foundation models for the task of keypoint detection on 3D shapes. A unique characteristic of keypoint detection is that it requires semantic and geometric awareness while demanding high localization accuracy. To address this problem, we propose, first, to back-project features from large pre-trained 2D vision models onto 3D shapes and employ them for this task. We show that we obtain robust 3D features that contain rich semantic information and analyze multiple candidate features stemming from different 2D foundation models. Second, we employ a keypoint candidate optimization module which aims to match the average observed distribution of keypoints on the shape and is guided by the back-projected features. The resulting approach achieves a new state of the art for few-shot keypoint detection on the KeyPointNet dataset, almost doubling the performance of the previous best methods.

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

LLM-as-a-judge has become a promising paradigm for using large language models (LLMs) to evaluate natural language generation (NLG), but the uncertainty of its evaluation remains underexplored. This lack of reliability may limit its deployment in many applications. This work presents the first framework to analyze the uncertainty by offering a prediction interval of LLM-based scoring via conformal prediction. Conformal prediction constructs continuous prediction intervals from a single evaluation run, and we design an ordinal boundary adjustment for discrete rating tasks. We also suggest a midpoint-based score within the interval as a low-bias alternative to raw model score and weighted average. We perform extensive experiments and analysis, which show that conformal prediction can provide valid prediction interval with coverage guarantees. We also explore the usefulness of interval midpoint and judge reprompting for better judgment.

Accurate 3D geometric perception is an important prerequisite for a wide range of spatial AI systems. While state-of-the-art methods depend on large-scale training data, acquiring consistent and precise 3D annotations from in-the-wild videos remains a key challenge. In this work, we introduce ViPE, a handy and versatile video processing engine designed to bridge this gap. ViPE efficiently estimates camera intrinsics, camera motion, and dense, near-metric depth maps from unconstrained raw videos. It is robust to diverse scenarios, including dynamic selfie videos, cinematic shots, or dashcams, and supports various camera models such as pinhole, wide-angle, and 360{\deg} panoramas. We have benchmarked ViPE on multiple benchmarks. Notably, it outperforms existing uncalibrated pose estimation baselines by 18%/50% on TUM/KITTI sequences, and runs at 3-5FPS on a single GPU for standard input resolutions. We use ViPE to annotate a large-scale collection of videos. This collection includes around 100K real-world internet videos, 1M high-quality AI-generated videos, and 2K panoramic videos, totaling approximately 96M frames -- all annotated with accurate camera poses and dense depth maps. We open-source ViPE and the annotated dataset with the hope of accelerating the development of spatial AI systems.

The conventional recipe for maximizing model accuracy is to (1) train multiple models with various hyperparameters and (2) pick the individual model which performs best on a held-out validation set, discarding the remainder. In this paper, we revisit the second step of this procedure in the context of fine-tuning large pre-trained models, where fine-tuned models often appear to lie in a single low error basin. We show that averaging the weights of multiple models fine-tuned with different hyperparameter configurations often improves accuracy and robustness. Unlike a conventional ensemble, we may average many models without incurring any additional inference or memory costs -- we call the results "model soups." When fine-tuning large pre-trained models such as CLIP, ALIGN, and a ViT-G pre-trained on JFT, our soup recipe provides significant improvements over the best model in a hyperparameter sweep on ImageNet. The resulting ViT-G model, which attains 90.94% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet, achieved a new state of the art. Furthermore, we show that the model soup approach extends to multiple image classification and natural language processing tasks, improves out-of-distribution performance, and improves zero-shot performance on new downstream tasks. Finally, we analytically relate the performance similarity of weight-averaging and logit-ensembling to flatness of the loss and confidence of the predictions, and validate this relation empirically. Code is available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/model-soups.

Graph neural networks achieve high accuracy in link prediction by jointly leveraging graph topology and node attributes. Topology, however, is represented indirectly; state-of-the-art methods based on subgraph classification label nodes with distance to the target link, so that, although topological information is present, it is tempered by pooling. This makes it challenging to leverage features like loops and motifs associated with network formation mechanisms. We propose a link prediction algorithm based on a new pooling scheme called WalkPool. WalkPool combines the expressivity of topological heuristics with the feature-learning ability of neural networks. It summarizes a putative link by random walk probabilities of adjacent paths. Instead of extracting transition probabilities from the original graph, it computes the transition matrix of a "predictive" latent graph by applying attention to learned features; this may be interpreted as feature-sensitive topology fingerprinting. WalkPool can leverage unsupervised node features or be combined with GNNs and trained end-to-end. It outperforms state-of-the-art methods on all common link prediction benchmarks, both homophilic and heterophilic, with and without node attributes. Applying WalkPool to a set of unsupervised GNNs significantly improves prediction accuracy, suggesting that it may be used as a general-purpose graph pooling scheme.

Human pose estimation (HPE) in the top-view using fisheye cameras presents a promising and innovative application domain. However, the availability of datasets capturing this viewpoint is extremely limited, especially those with high-quality 2D and 3D keypoint annotations. Addressing this gap, we leverage the capabilities of Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) technique to establish a comprehensive pipeline for generating human pose datasets from existing 2D and 3D datasets, specifically tailored for the top-view fisheye perspective. Through this pipeline, we create a novel dataset NToP570K (NeRF-powered Top-view human Pose dataset for fisheye cameras with over 570 thousand images), and conduct an extensive evaluation of its efficacy in enhancing neural networks for 2D and 3D top-view human pose estimation. A pretrained ViTPose-B model achieves an improvement in AP of 33.3 % on our validation set for 2D HPE after finetuning on our training set. A similarly finetuned HybrIK-Transformer model gains 53.7 mm reduction in PA-MPJPE for 3D HPE on the validation set.

Suppose Alice trains an open-weight language model and Bob uses a blackbox derivative of Alice's model to produce text. Can Alice prove that Bob is using her model, either by querying Bob's derivative model (query setting) or from the text alone (observational setting)? We formulate this question as an independence testing problem--in which the null hypothesis is that Bob's model or text is independent of Alice's randomized training run--and investigate it through the lens of palimpsestic memorization in language models: models are more likely to memorize data seen later in training, so we can test whether Bob is using Alice's model using test statistics that capture correlation between Bob's model or text and the ordering of training examples in Alice's training run. If Alice has randomly shuffled her training data, then any significant correlation amounts to exactly quantifiable statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, regardless of the composition of Alice's training data. In the query setting, we directly estimate (via prompting) the likelihood Bob's model gives to Alice's training examples and order; we correlate the likelihoods of over 40 fine-tunes of various Pythia and OLMo base models ranging from 1B to 12B parameters with the base model's training data order, achieving a p-value on the order of at most 1e-8 in all but six cases. In the observational setting, we try two approaches based on estimating 1) the likelihood of Bob's text overlapping with spans of Alice's training examples and 2) the likelihood of Bob's text with respect to different versions of Alice's model we obtain by repeating the last phase (e.g., 1%) of her training run on reshuffled data. The second approach can reliably distinguish Bob's text from as little as a few hundred tokens; the first does not involve any retraining but requires many more tokens (several hundred thousand) to achieve high power.

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) for cross-task generalization consists in pre-training adapters on a multi-task training set before few-shot adaptation to test tasks. Polytropon [Ponti et al., 2023] (Poly) jointly learns an inventory of adapters and a routing function that selects a (variable-size) subset of adapters for each task during both pre-training and few-shot adaptation. In this paper, we investigate the role that adapter routing plays in its success and design new variants based on our findings. First, we build on the intuition that finer-grained routing provides more expressivity. Hence, we propose MHR (Multi-Head Routing), which combines subsets of adapter parameters and outperforms Poly under a comparable parameter budget; by only fine-tuning the routing function and not the adapters (MHR-z), we achieve competitive performance with extreme parameter efficiency. Second, we find that Poly/MHR performance is a result of better multi-task optimization, rather than modular inductive biases that facilitate adapter recombination and local adaptation, as previously hypothesized. In fact, we find that MHR exhibits higher gradient alignment between tasks than any other method. Since this implies that routing is only crucial during multi-task pre-training, we propose MHR-mu, which discards routing and fine-tunes the average of the pre-trained adapters during few-shot adaptation. This establishes MHR-mu as an effective method for single-adapter fine-tuning.

We present Ring-1T, the first open-source, state-of-the-art thinking model with a trillion-scale parameter. It features 1 trillion total parameters and activates approximately 50 billion per token. Training such models at a trillion-parameter scale introduces unprecedented challenges, including train-inference misalignment, inefficiencies in rollout processing, and bottlenecks in the RL system. To address these, we pioneer three interconnected innovations: (1) IcePop stabilizes RL training via token-level discrepancy masking and clipping, resolving instability from training-inference mismatches; (2) C3PO++ improves resource utilization for long rollouts under a token budget by dynamically partitioning them, thereby obtaining high time efficiency; and (3) ASystem, a high-performance RL framework designed to overcome the systemic bottlenecks that impede trillion-parameter model training. Ring-1T delivers breakthrough results across critical benchmarks: 93.4 on AIME-2025, 86.72 on HMMT-2025, 2088 on CodeForces, and 55.94 on ARC-AGI-v1. Notably, it attains a silver medal-level result on the IMO-2025, underscoring its exceptional reasoning capabilities. By releasing the complete 1T parameter MoE model to the community, we provide the research community with direct access to cutting-edge reasoning capabilities. This contribution marks a significant milestone in democratizing large-scale reasoning intelligence and establishes a new baseline for open-source model performance.

SymPoint is an initial attempt that utilizes point set representation to solve the panoptic symbol spotting task on CAD drawing. Despite its considerable success, it overlooks graphical layer information and suffers from prohibitively slow training convergence. To tackle this issue, we introduce SymPoint-V2, a robust and efficient solution featuring novel, streamlined designs that overcome these limitations. In particular, we first propose a Layer Feature-Enhanced module (LFE) to encode the graphical layer information into the primitive feature, which significantly boosts the performance. We also design a Position-Guided Training (PGT) method to make it easier to learn, which accelerates the convergence of the model in the early stages and further promotes performance. Extensive experiments show that our model achieves better performance and faster convergence than its predecessor SymPoint on the public benchmark. Our code and trained models are available at https://github.com/nicehuster/SymPointV2.

We present CRUXEval (Code Reasoning, Understanding, and eXecution Evaluation), a benchmark consisting of 800 Python functions (3-13 lines). Each function comes with an input-output pair, leading to two natural tasks: input prediction and output prediction. First, we propose a generic recipe for generating our execution benchmark which can be used to create future variation of the benchmark. Second, we evaluate twenty code models on our benchmark and discover that many recent high-scoring models on HumanEval do not show the same improvements on our benchmark. Third, we show that simple CoT and fine-tuning schemes can improve performance on our benchmark but remain far from solving it. The best setup, GPT-4 with chain of thought (CoT), achieves a pass@1 of 75% and 81% on input and output prediction, respectively. In contrast, Code Llama 34B achieves a pass@1 of 50% and 46% on input and output prediction, highlighting the gap between open and closed source models. As no model is close to acing CRUXEval, we provide examples of consistent GPT-4 failures on simple programs as a lens into its code reasoning capabilities and areas for improvement.

Over the past decade, machine learning has revolutionized computers' ability to analyze text through flexible computational models. Due to their structural similarity to written language, transformer-based architectures have also shown promise as tools to make sense of a range of multi-variate sequences from protein-structures, music, electronic health records to weather-forecasts. We can also represent human lives in a way that shares this structural similarity to language. From one perspective, lives are simply sequences of events: People are born, visit the pediatrician, start school, move to a new location, get married, and so on. Here, we exploit this similarity to adapt innovations from natural language processing to examine the evolution and predictability of human lives based on detailed event sequences. We do this by drawing on arguably the most comprehensive registry data in existence, available for an entire nation of more than six million individuals across decades. Our data include information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address, and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution. We create embeddings of life-events in a single vector space showing that this embedding space is robust and highly structured. Our models allow us to predict diverse outcomes ranging from early mortality to personality nuances, outperforming state-of-the-art models by a wide margin. Using methods for interpreting deep learning models, we probe the algorithm to understand the factors that enable our predictions. Our framework allows researchers to identify new potential mechanisms that impact life outcomes and associated possibilities for personalized interventions.

Machine learning models -- including prominent zero-shot models -- are often trained on datasets whose labels are only a small proportion of a larger label space. Such spaces are commonly equipped with a metric that relates the labels via distances between them. We propose a simple approach to exploit this information to adapt the trained model to reliably predict new classes -- or, in the case of zero-shot prediction, to improve its performance -- without any additional training. Our technique is a drop-in replacement of the standard prediction rule, swapping argmax with the Fr\'echet mean. We provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis for this approach, studying (i) learning-theoretic results trading off label space diameter, sample complexity, and model dimension, (ii) characterizations of the full range of scenarios in which it is possible to predict any unobserved class, and (iii) an optimal active learning-like next class selection procedure to obtain optimal training classes for when it is not possible to predict the entire range of unobserved classes. Empirically, using easily-available external metrics, our proposed approach, Loki, gains up to 29.7% relative improvement over SimCLR on ImageNet and scales to hundreds of thousands of classes. When no such metric is available, Loki can use self-derived metrics from class embeddings and obtains a 10.5% improvement on pretrained zero-shot models such as CLIP.

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a novel result, showing that choosing the best stacked generalization from a (finite or finite-dimensional) family of stacked generalizations based on cross-validated performance does not perform "much worse" than the oracle best. Our result strengthens and significantly extends the results in Van der Laan et al. (2007). Inspired by the theoretical analysis, we further propose a particular family of stacked generalizations in the context of probabilistic forecasting, each one with a different sensitivity for how much the ensemble weights are allowed to vary across items, timestamps in the forecast horizon, and quantiles. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed method.

In recent years, particle-based variational inference (ParVI) methods such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) have grown in popularity as scalable methods for Bayesian inference. Unfortunately, the properties of such methods invariably depend on hyperparameters such as the learning rate, which must be carefully tuned by the practitioner in order to ensure convergence to the target measure at a suitable rate. In this paper, we introduce a suite of new particle-based methods for scalable Bayesian inference based on coin betting, which are entirely learning-rate free. We illustrate the performance of our approach on a range of numerical examples, including several high-dimensional models and datasets, demonstrating comparable performance to other ParVI algorithms with no need to tune a learning rate.

We introduce pi^3, a feed-forward neural network that offers a novel approach to visual geometry reconstruction, breaking the reliance on a conventional fixed reference view. Previous methods often anchor their reconstructions to a designated viewpoint, an inductive bias that can lead to instability and failures if the reference is suboptimal. In contrast, pi^3 employs a fully permutation-equivariant architecture to predict affine-invariant camera poses and scale-invariant local point maps without any reference frames. This design makes our model inherently robust to input ordering and highly scalable. These advantages enable our simple and bias-free approach to achieve state-of-the-art performance on a wide range of tasks, including camera pose estimation, monocular/video depth estimation, and dense point map reconstruction. Code and models are publicly available.

Deep learning has been successful in automating the design of features in machine learning pipelines. However, the algorithms optimizing neural network parameters remain largely hand-designed and computationally inefficient. We study if we can use deep learning to directly predict these parameters by exploiting the past knowledge of training other networks. We introduce a large-scale dataset of diverse computational graphs of neural architectures - DeepNets-1M - and use it to explore parameter prediction on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. By leveraging advances in graph neural networks, we propose a hypernetwork that can predict performant parameters in a single forward pass taking a fraction of a second, even on a CPU. The proposed model achieves surprisingly good performance on unseen and diverse networks. For example, it is able to predict all 24 million parameters of a ResNet-50 achieving a 60% accuracy on CIFAR-10. On ImageNet, top-5 accuracy of some of our networks approaches 50%. Our task along with the model and results can potentially lead to a new, more computationally efficient paradigm of training networks. Our model also learns a strong representation of neural architectures enabling their analysis.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown great promise in learning node embeddings for link prediction (LP). While numerous studies aim to improve the overall LP performance of GNNs, none have explored its varying performance across different nodes and its underlying reasons. To this end, we aim to demystify which nodes will perform better from the perspective of their local topology. Despite the widespread belief that low-degree nodes exhibit poorer LP performance, our empirical findings provide nuances to this viewpoint and prompt us to propose a better metric, Topological Concentration (TC), based on the intersection of the local subgraph of each node with the ones of its neighbors. We empirically demonstrate that TC has a higher correlation with LP performance than other node-level topological metrics like degree and subgraph density, offering a better way to identify low-performing nodes than using cold-start. With TC, we discover a novel topological distribution shift issue in which newly joined neighbors of a node tend to become less interactive with that node's existing neighbors, compromising the generalizability of node embeddings for LP at testing time. To make the computation of TC scalable, We further propose Approximated Topological Concentration (ATC) and theoretically/empirically justify its efficacy in approximating TC and reducing the computation complexity. Given the positive correlation between node TC and its LP performance, we explore the potential of boosting LP performance via enhancing TC by re-weighting edges in the message-passing and discuss its effectiveness with limitations. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/YuWVandy/Topo_LP_GNN.

Hypothesis ranking is a crucial component of automated scientific discovery, particularly in natural sciences where wet-lab experiments are costly and throughput-limited. Existing approaches focus on pre-experiment ranking, relying solely on large language model's internal reasoning without incorporating empirical outcomes from experiments. We introduce the task of experiment-guided ranking, which aims to prioritize candidate hypotheses based on the results of previously tested ones. However, developing such strategies is challenging due to the impracticality of repeatedly conducting real experiments in natural science domains. To address this, we propose a simulator grounded in three domain-informed assumptions, modeling hypothesis performance as a function of similarity to a known ground truth hypothesis, perturbed by noise. We curate a dataset of 124 chemistry hypotheses with experimentally reported outcomes to validate the simulator. Building on this simulator, we develop a pseudo experiment-guided ranking method that clusters hypotheses by shared functional characteristics and prioritizes candidates based on insights derived from simulated experimental feedback. Experiments show that our method outperforms pre-experiment baselines and strong ablations.

3D pose estimation is an invaluable task in computer vision with various practical applications. Especially, 3D pose estimation for multi-person from a monocular video (3DMPPE) is particularly challenging and is still largely uncharted, far from applying to in-the-wild scenarios yet. We pose three unresolved issues with the existing methods: lack of robustness on unseen views during training, vulnerability to occlusion, and severe jittering in the output. As a remedy, we propose POTR-3D, the first realization of a sequence-to-sequence 2D-to-3D lifting model for 3DMPPE, powered by a novel geometry-aware data augmentation strategy, capable of generating unbounded data with a variety of views while caring about the ground plane and occlusions. Through extensive experiments, we verify that the proposed model and data augmentation robustly generalizes to diverse unseen views, robustly recovers the poses against heavy occlusions, and reliably generates more natural and smoother outputs. The effectiveness of our approach is verified not only by achieving the state-of-the-art performance on public benchmarks, but also by qualitative results on more challenging in-the-wild videos. Demo videos are available at https://www.youtube.com/@potr3d.

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples are able to manipulate conformal methods to construct prediction sets with invalid coverage rates, as the i.i.d. assumption is violated. To address this issue, a recent work, Randomized Smoothed Conformal Prediction (RSCP), was first proposed to certify the robustness of conformal prediction methods to adversarial noise. However, RSCP has two major limitations: (i) its robustness guarantee is flawed when used in practice and (ii) it tends to produce large uncertainty sets. To address these limitations, we first propose a novel framework called RSCP+ to provide provable robustness guarantee in evaluation, which fixes the issues in the original RSCP method. Next, we propose two novel methods, Post-Training Transformation (PTT) and Robust Conformal Training (RCT), to effectively reduce prediction set size with little computation overhead. Experimental results in CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and ImageNet suggest the baseline method only yields trivial predictions including full label set, while our methods could boost the efficiency by up to 4.36times, 5.46times, and 16.9times respectively and provide practical robustness guarantee. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Trustworthy-ML-Lab/Provably-Robust-Conformal-Prediction.

This paper explores the limits of the current generation of large language models for program synthesis in general purpose programming languages. We evaluate a collection of such models (with between 244M and 137B parameters) on two new benchmarks, MBPP and MathQA-Python, in both the few-shot and fine-tuning regimes. Our benchmarks are designed to measure the ability of these models to synthesize short Python programs from natural language descriptions. The Mostly Basic Programming Problems (MBPP) dataset contains 974 programming tasks, designed to be solvable by entry-level programmers. The MathQA-Python dataset, a Python version of the MathQA benchmark, contains 23914 problems that evaluate the ability of the models to synthesize code from more complex text. On both datasets, we find that synthesis performance scales log-linearly with model size. Our largest models, even without finetuning on a code dataset, can synthesize solutions to 59.6 percent of the problems from MBPP using few-shot learning with a well-designed prompt. Fine-tuning on a held-out portion of the dataset improves performance by about 10 percentage points across most model sizes. On the MathQA-Python dataset, the largest fine-tuned model achieves 83.8 percent accuracy. Going further, we study the model's ability to engage in dialog about code, incorporating human feedback to improve its solutions. We find that natural language feedback from a human halves the error rate compared to the model's initial prediction. Additionally, we conduct an error analysis to shed light on where these models fall short and what types of programs are most difficult to generate. Finally, we explore the semantic grounding of these models by fine-tuning them to predict the results of program execution. We find that even our best models are generally unable to predict the output of a program given a specific input.

While deep learning has revolutionized the prediction of rigid protein structures, modelling the conformational ensembles of Intrinsically Disordered Proteins (IDPs) remains a key frontier. Current AI paradigms present a trade-off: Protein Language Models (PLMs) capture evolutionary statistics but lack explicit physical grounding, while generative models trained to model full ensembles are computationally expensive. In this work we critically assess these limits and propose a path forward. We introduce GeoGraph, a simulation-informed surrogate trained to predict ensemble-averaged statistics of residue-residue contact-map topology directly from sequence. By featurizing coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations into residue- and sequence-level graph descriptors, we create a robust and information-rich learning target. Our evaluation demonstrates that this approach yields representations that are more predictive of key biophysical properties than existing methods.