Daily Papers

The SYNTAX score has become a widely used measure of coronary disease severity , crucial in selecting the optimal mode of revascularization. This paper introduces a new medical regression and classification problem - automatically estimating SYNTAX score from coronary angiography. Our study presents a comprehensive dataset of 1,844 patients, featuring a balanced distribution of individuals with zero and non-zero scores. This dataset includes a first-of-its-kind, complete coronary angiography samples captured through a multi-view X-ray video, allowing one to observe coronary arteries from multiple perspectives. Furthermore, we present a novel, fully automatic end-to-end method for estimating the SYNTAX. For such a difficult task, we have achieved a solid coefficient of determination R2 of 0.51 in score predictions.

Foundation models are increasingly used in scientific research, but evaluating AI-generated scientific work remains challenging. While expert reviews are costly, large language models (LLMs) as proxy reviewers have proven to be unreliable. To address this, we investigate two automatic evaluation metrics, specifically citation count prediction and review score prediction. We parse all papers of OpenReview and augment each submission with its citation count, reference, and research hypothesis. Our findings reveal that citation count prediction is more viable than review score prediction, and predicting scores is more difficult purely from the research hypothesis than from the full paper. Furthermore, we show that a simple prediction model based solely on title and abstract outperforms LLM-based reviewers, though it still falls short of human-level consistency.

The task of personalized image aesthetic assessment seeks to tailor aesthetic score prediction models to match individual preferences with just a few user-provided inputs. However, the scalability and generalization capabilities of current approaches are considerably restricted by their reliance on an expensive curated database. To overcome this long-standing scalability challenge, we present a unique approach that leverages readily available databases for general image aesthetic assessment and image quality assessment. Specifically, we view each database as a distinct image score regression task that exhibits varying degrees of personalization potential. By determining optimal combinations of task vectors, known to represent specific traits of each database, we successfully create personalized models for individuals. This approach of integrating multiple models allows us to harness a substantial amount of data. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in generalizing to previously unseen domains-a challenge previous approaches have struggled to achieve-making it highly applicable to real-world scenarios. Our novel approach significantly advances the field by offering scalable solutions for personalized aesthetic assessment and establishing high standards for future research. https://yeolj00.github.io/personal-projects/personalized-aesthetics/

Objective gait assessment in Parkinson's Disease (PD) is limited by the absence of large, diverse, and clinically annotated motion datasets. We introduce CARE-PD, the largest publicly available archive of 3D mesh gait data for PD, and the first multi-site collection spanning 9 cohorts from 8 clinical centers. All recordings (RGB video or motion capture) are converted into anonymized SMPL meshes via a harmonized preprocessing pipeline. CARE-PD supports two key benchmarks: supervised clinical score prediction (estimating Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale, UPDRS, gait scores) and unsupervised motion pretext tasks (2D-to-3D keypoint lifting and full-body 3D reconstruction). Clinical prediction is evaluated under four generalization protocols: within-dataset, cross-dataset, leave-one-dataset-out, and multi-dataset in-domain adaptation. To assess clinical relevance, we compare state-of-the-art motion encoders with a traditional gait-feature baseline, finding that encoders consistently outperform handcrafted features. Pretraining on CARE-PD reduces MPJPE (from 60.8mm to 7.5mm) and boosts PD severity macro-F1 by 17 percentage points, underscoring the value of clinically curated, diverse training data. CARE-PD and all benchmark code are released for non-commercial research at https://neurips2025.care-pd.ca/.

Evaluating machine translation (MT) for low-resource languages poses a persistent challenge, primarily due to the limited availability of high quality reference translations. This issue is further exacerbated in languages with multiple dialects, where linguistic diversity and data scarcity hinder robust evaluation. Large Language Models (LLMs) present a promising solution through reference-free evaluation techniques; however, their effectiveness diminishes in the absence of dialect-specific context and tailored guidance. In this work, we propose a comprehensive framework that enhances LLM-based MT evaluation using a dialect guided approach. We extend the ONUBAD dataset by incorporating Sylheti-English sentence pairs, corresponding machine translations, and Direct Assessment (DA) scores annotated by native speakers. To address the vocabulary gap, we augment the tokenizer vocabulary with dialect-specific terms. We further introduce a regression head to enable scalar score prediction and design a dialect-guided (DG) prompting strategy. Our evaluation across multiple LLMs shows that the proposed pipeline consistently outperforms existing methods, achieving the highest gain of +0.1083 in Spearman correlation, along with improvements across other evaluation settings. The dataset and the code are available at https://github.com/180041123-Atiq/MTEonLowResourceLanguage.

This paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) are state-of-the-art quality estimators for machine translation of user-generated content (UGC) that contains emotional expressions, without the use of reference translations. To achieve this, we employ an existing emotion-related dataset with human-annotated errors and calculate quality evaluation scores based on the Multi-dimensional Quality Metrics. We compare the accuracy of several LLMs with that of our fine-tuned baseline models, under in-context learning and parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) scenarios. We find that PEFT of LLMs leads to better performance in score prediction with human interpretable explanations than fine-tuned models. However, a manual analysis of LLM outputs reveals that they still have problems such as refusal to reply to a prompt and unstable output while evaluating machine translation of UGC.

Image quality assessment (IQA) algorithm aims to quantify the human perception of image quality. Unfortunately, there is a performance drop when assessing the distortion images generated by generative adversarial network (GAN) with seemingly realistic texture. In this work, we conjecture that this maladaptation lies in the backbone of IQA models, where patch-level prediction methods use independent image patches as input to calculate their scores separately, but lack spatial relationship modeling among image patches. Therefore, we propose an Attention-based Hybrid Image Quality Assessment Network (AHIQ) to deal with the challenge and get better performance on the GAN-based IQA task. Firstly, we adopt a two-branch architecture, including a vision transformer (ViT) branch and a convolutional neural network (CNN) branch for feature extraction. The hybrid architecture combines interaction information among image patches captured by ViT and local texture details from CNN. To make the features from shallow CNN more focused on the visually salient region, a deformable convolution is applied with the help of semantic information from the ViT branch. Finally, we use a patch-wise score prediction module to obtain the final score. The experiments show that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on four standard IQA datasets and AHIQ ranked first on the Full Reference (FR) track of the NTIRE 2022 Perceptual Image Quality Assessment Challenge.

We present the system description for our submission towards the Key Point Analysis Shared Task at ArgMining 2021. Track 1 of the shared task requires participants to develop methods to predict the match score between each pair of arguments and keypoints, provided they belong to the same topic under the same stance. We leveraged existing state of the art pre-trained language models along with incorporating additional data and features extracted from the inputs (topics, key points, and arguments) to improve performance. We were able to achieve mAP strict and mAP relaxed score of 0.872 and 0.966 respectively in the evaluation phase, securing 5th place on the leaderboard. In the post evaluation phase, we achieved a mAP strict and mAP relaxed score of 0.921 and 0.982 respectively. All the codes to generate reproducible results on our models are available on Github.

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) has witnessed great progress with various improvements in the self-training framework with pseudo labeling. The main challenge is how to distinguish high-quality pseudo labels against the confirmation bias. However, existing pseudo-label selection strategies are limited to pre-defined schemes or complex hand-crafted policies specially designed for classification, failing to achieve high-quality labels, fast convergence, and task versatility simultaneously. To these ends, we propose a Semi-supervised Reward framework (SemiReward) that predicts reward scores to evaluate and filter out high-quality pseudo labels, which is pluggable to mainstream SSL methods in wide task types and scenarios. To mitigate confirmation bias, SemiReward is trained online in two stages with a generator model and subsampling strategy. With classification and regression tasks on 13 standard SSL benchmarks across three modalities, extensive experiments verify that SemiReward achieves significant performance gains and faster convergence speeds upon Pseudo Label, FlexMatch, and Free/SoftMatch. Code and models are available at https://github.com/Westlake-AI/SemiReward.

Training dialog policies for speech-based virtual assistants requires a plethora of conversational data. The data collection phase is often expensive and time consuming due to human involvement. To address this issue, a common solution is to build user simulators for data generation. For the successful deployment of the trained policies into real world domains, it is vital that the user simulator mimics realistic conditions. In particular, speech-based assistants are heavily affected by automatic speech recognition and language understanding errors, hence the user simulator should be able to simulate similar errors. In this paper, we review the existing error simulation methods that induce errors at audio, phoneme, text, or semantic level; and conduct detailed comparisons between the audio-level and text-level methods. In the process, we improve the existing text-level method by introducing confidence score prediction and out-of-vocabulary word mapping. We also explore the impact of audio-level and text-level methods on learning a simple clarification dialog policy to recover from errors to provide insight on future improvement for both approaches.

Automatic evaluation of machine translation (MT) is a critical tool driving the rapid iterative development of MT systems. While considerable progress has been made on estimating a single scalar quality score, current metrics lack the informativeness of more detailed schemes that annotate individual errors, such as Multidimensional Quality Metrics (MQM). In this paper, we help fill this gap by proposing AutoMQM, a prompting technique which leverages the reasoning and in-context learning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) and asks them to identify and categorize errors in translations. We start by evaluating recent LLMs, such as PaLM and PaLM-2, through simple score prediction prompting, and we study the impact of labeled data through in-context learning and finetuning. We then evaluate AutoMQM with PaLM-2 models, and we find that it improves performance compared to just prompting for scores (with particularly large gains for larger models) while providing interpretability through error spans that align with human annotations.

Current developments in large language models (LLMs) have enabled impressive zero-shot capabilities across various natural language tasks. An interesting application of these systems is in the automated assessment of natural language generation (NLG), a highly challenging area with great practical benefit. In this paper, we explore two options for exploiting the emergent abilities of LLMs for zero-shot NLG assessment: absolute score prediction, and comparative assessment which uses relative comparisons between pairs of candidates. Though comparative assessment has not been extensively studied in NLG assessment, we note that humans often find it more intuitive to compare two options rather than scoring each one independently. This work examines comparative assessment from multiple perspectives: performance compared to absolute grading; positional biases in the prompt; and efficient ranking in terms of the number of comparisons. We illustrate that LLM comparative assessment is a simple, general and effective approach for NLG assessment. For moderate-sized open-source LLMs, such as FlanT5 and Llama2-chat, comparative assessment is superior to prompt scoring, and in many cases can achieve performance competitive with state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, we demonstrate that LLMs often exhibit strong positional biases when making pairwise comparisons, and we propose debiasing methods that can further improve performance.

The rapid advancement in generative artificial intelligence have enabled the creation of 3D human faces (HFs) for applications including media production, virtual reality, security, healthcare, and game development, etc. However, assessing the quality and realism of these AI-generated 3D human faces remains a significant challenge due to the subjective nature of human perception and innate perceptual sensitivity to facial features. To this end, we conduct a comprehensive study on the quality assessment of AI-generated 3D human faces. We first introduce Gen3DHF, a large-scale benchmark comprising 2,000 videos of AI-Generated 3D Human Faces along with 4,000 Mean Opinion Scores (MOS) collected across two dimensions, i.e., quality and authenticity, 2,000 distortion-aware saliency maps and distortion descriptions. Based on Gen3DHF, we propose LMME3DHF, a Large Multimodal Model (LMM)-based metric for Evaluating 3DHF capable of quality and authenticity score prediction, distortion-aware visual question answering, and distortion-aware saliency prediction. Experimental results show that LMME3DHF achieves state-of-the-art performance, surpassing existing methods in both accurately predicting quality scores for AI-generated 3D human faces and effectively identifying distortion-aware salient regions and distortion types, while maintaining strong alignment with human perceptual judgments. Both the Gen3DHF database and the LMME3DHF will be released upon the publication.

Tracking often uses a multi-stage pipeline of feature extraction, target information integration, and bounding box estimation. To simplify this pipeline and unify the process of feature extraction and target information integration, we present a compact tracking framework, termed as MixFormer, built upon transformers. Our core design is to utilize the flexibility of attention operations, and propose a Mixed Attention Module (MAM) for simultaneous feature extraction and target information integration. This synchronous modeling scheme allows to extract target-specific discriminative features and perform extensive communication between target and search area. Based on MAM, we build our MixFormer tracking framework simply by stacking multiple MAMs with progressive patch embedding and placing a localization head on top. In addition, to handle multiple target templates during online tracking, we devise an asymmetric attention scheme in MAM to reduce computational cost, and propose an effective score prediction module to select high-quality templates. Our MixFormer sets a new state-of-the-art performance on five tracking benchmarks, including LaSOT, TrackingNet, VOT2020, GOT-10k, and UAV123. In particular, our MixFormer-L achieves NP score of 79.9% on LaSOT, 88.9% on TrackingNet and EAO of 0.555 on VOT2020. We also perform in-depth ablation studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of simultaneous feature extraction and information integration. Code and trained models are publicly available at https://github.com/MCG-NJU/MixFormer.

Current visual evaluation approaches are typically constrained to a single task. To address this, we propose OmniQuality-R, a unified reward modeling framework that transforms multi-task quality reasoning into continuous and interpretable reward signals for policy optimization. Inspired by subjective experiments, where participants are given task-specific instructions outlining distinct assessment principles prior to evaluation, we propose OmniQuality-R, a structured reward modeling framework that transforms multi-dimensional reasoning into continuous and interpretable reward signals. To enable this, we construct a reasoning-enhanced reward modeling dataset by sampling informative plan-reason trajectories via rejection sampling, forming a reliable chain-of-thought (CoT) dataset for supervised fine-tuning (SFT). Building on this, we apply Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) for post-training, using a Gaussian-based reward to support continuous score prediction. To further stabilize the training and improve downstream generalization, we incorporate standard deviation (STD) filtering and entropy gating mechanisms during reinforcement learning. These techniques suppress unstable updates and reduce variance in policy optimization. We evaluate OmniQuality-R on three key IQA tasks: aesthetic quality assessment, technical quality evaluation, and text-image alignment.

Technical Element Score (TES) and Program Component Score (PCS) evaluations in figure skating demand precise assessment of athletic actions and artistic interpretation, respectively. Existing methods face three major challenges. Firstly, video and audio cues are regarded as common features for both TES and PCS predictions in previous works without considering the prior evaluation criterion of figure skating. Secondly, action elements in competitions are separated in time, TES should be derived from each element's score, but existing methods try to give an overall TES prediction without evaluating each action element. Thirdly, lengthy competition videos make it difficult and inefficient to handle long-range contexts. To address these challenges, we propose a two-stream Mamba pyramid network that aligns with actual judging criteria to predict TES and PCS by separating visual-feature based TES evaluation stream from audio-visual-feature based PCS evaluation stream. In the PCS evaluation stream, we introduce a multi-level fusion mechanism to guarantee that video-based features remain unaffected when assessing TES, and enhance PCS estimation by fusing visual and auditory cues across each contextual level of the pyramid. In the TES evaluation stream, the multi-scale Mamba pyramid and TES head we proposed effectively address the challenges of localizing and evaluating action elements with various temporal scales and give score predictions. With Mamba's superior ability to capture long-range dependencies and its linear computational complexity, our method is ideal for handling lengthy figure skating videos. Comprehensive experimentation demonstrates that our framework attains state-of-the-art performance on the FineFS benchmark. Our source code is available at https://github.com/ycwfs/Figure-Skating-Action-Quality-Assessment.

Mean Opinion Score (MOS) prediction for text to music systems requires evaluating both overall musical quality and text prompt alignment. This paper introduces WhisQ, a multimodal architecture that addresses this dual-assessment challenge through sequence level co-attention and optimal transport regularization. WhisQ employs the Whisper Base pretrained model for temporal audio encoding and Qwen 3, a 0.6B Small Language Model (SLM), for text encoding, with both maintaining sequence structure for fine grained cross-modal modeling. The architecture features specialized prediction pathways: OMQ is predicted from pooled audio embeddings, while TA leverages bidirectional sequence co-attention between audio and text. Sinkhorn optimal transport loss further enforce semantic alignment in the shared embedding space. On the MusicEval Track-1 dataset, WhisQ achieves substantial improvements over the baseline: 7% improvement in Spearman correlation for OMQ and 14% for TA. Ablation studies reveal that optimal transport regularization provides the largest performance gain (10% SRCC improvement), demonstrating the importance of explicit cross-modal alignment for text-to-music evaluation.

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in legal judgment prediction (LJP) has the potential to transform the legal landscape, particularly in jurisdictions like India, where a significant backlog of cases burdens the legal system. This paper introduces NyayaAnumana, the largest and most diverse corpus of Indian legal cases compiled for LJP, encompassing a total of 7,02,945 preprocessed cases. NyayaAnumana, which combines the words "Nyay" (judgment) and "Anuman" (prediction or inference) respectively for most major Indian languages, includes a wide range of cases from the Supreme Court, High Courts, Tribunal Courts, District Courts, and Daily Orders and, thus, provides unparalleled diversity and coverage. Our dataset surpasses existing datasets like PredEx and ILDC, offering a comprehensive foundation for advanced AI research in the legal domain. In addition to the dataset, we present INLegalLlama, a domain-specific generative large language model (LLM) tailored to the intricacies of the Indian legal system. It is developed through a two-phase training approach over a base LLaMa model. First, Indian legal documents are injected using continual pretraining. Second, task-specific supervised finetuning is done. This method allows the model to achieve a deeper understanding of legal contexts. Our experiments demonstrate that incorporating diverse court data significantly boosts model accuracy, achieving approximately 90% F1-score in prediction tasks. INLegalLlama not only improves prediction accuracy but also offers comprehensible explanations, addressing the need for explainability in AI-assisted legal decisions.

State-of-the-art supervised NLP models achieve high accuracy but are also susceptible to failures on inputs from low-data regimes, such as domains that are not represented in training data. As an approximation to collecting ground-truth labels for the specific domain, we study the use of large language models (LLMs) for annotating inputs and improving the generalization of NLP models. Specifically, given a budget for LLM annotations, we present an algorithm for sampling the most informative inputs to annotate and retrain the NLP model. We find that popular active learning strategies such as uncertainty-based sampling do not work well. Instead, we propose a sampling strategy based on the difference in prediction scores between the base model and the finetuned NLP model, utilizing the fact that most NLP models are finetuned from a base model. Experiments with classification (semantic similarity) and ranking (semantic search) tasks show that our sampling strategy leads to significant gains in accuracy for both the training and target domains.

We present the UTokyo-SaruLab mean opinion score (MOS) prediction system submitted to VoiceMOS Challenge 2022. The challenge is to predict the MOS values of speech samples collected from previous Blizzard Challenges and Voice Conversion Challenges for two tracks: a main track for in-domain prediction and an out-of-domain (OOD) track for which there is less labeled data from different listening tests. Our system is based on ensemble learning of strong and weak learners. Strong learners incorporate several improvements to the previous fine-tuning models of self-supervised learning (SSL) models, while weak learners use basic machine-learning methods to predict scores from SSL features. In the Challenge, our system had the highest score on several metrics for both the main and OOD tracks. In addition, we conducted ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

The rise of Deepfake technology to generate hyper-realistic manipulated images and videos poses a significant challenge to the public and relevant authorities. This study presents a robust Deepfake detection based on a modified Vision Transformer(ViT) model, trained to distinguish between real and Deepfake images. The model has been trained on a subset of the OpenForensics Dataset with multiple augmentation techniques to increase robustness for diverse image manipulations. The class imbalance issues are handled by oversampling and a train-validation split of the dataset in a stratified manner. Performance is evaluated using the accuracy metric on the training and testing datasets, followed by a prediction score on a random image of people, irrespective of their realness. The model demonstrates state-of-the-art results on the test dataset to meticulously detect Deepfake images.

Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Precision-Recall (PR) curves are fundamental tools for evaluating machine learning classifiers, offering detailed insights into the trade-offs between true positive rate vs. false positive rate (ROC) or precision vs. recall (PR). However, in Federated Learning (FL) scenarios, where data is distributed across multiple clients, computing these curves is challenging due to privacy and communication constraints. Specifically, the server cannot access raw prediction scores and class labels, which are used to compute the ROC and PR curves in a centralized setting. In this paper, we propose a novel method for approximating ROC and PR curves in a federated setting by estimating quantiles of the prediction score distribution under distributed differential privacy. We provide theoretical bounds on the Area Error (AE) between the true and estimated curves, demonstrating the trade-offs between approximation accuracy, privacy, and communication cost. Empirical results on real-world datasets demonstrate that our method achieves high approximation accuracy with minimal communication and strong privacy guarantees, making it practical for privacy-preserving model evaluation in federated systems.

Toxic comments in online platforms are an unavoidable social issue under the cloak of anonymity. Hate speech detection has been actively done for languages such as English, German, or Italian, where manually labeled corpus has been released. In this work, we first present 9.4K manually labeled entertainment news comments for identifying Korean toxic speech, collected from a widely used online news platform in Korea. The comments are annotated regarding social bias and hate speech since both aspects are correlated. The inter-annotator agreement Krippendorff's alpha score is 0.492 and 0.496, respectively. We provide benchmarks using CharCNN, BiLSTM, and BERT, where BERT achieves the highest score on all tasks. The models generally display better performance on bias identification, since the hate speech detection is a more subjective issue. Additionally, when BERT is trained with bias label for hate speech detection, the prediction score increases, implying that bias and hate are intertwined. We make our dataset publicly available and open competitions with the corpus and benchmarks.

This paper approaches the problem of separating the notes from a quantized symbolic music piece (e.g., a MIDI file) into multiple voices and staves. This is a fundamental part of the larger task of music score engraving (or score typesetting), which aims to produce readable musical scores for human performers. We focus on piano music and support homophonic voices, i.e., voices that can contain chords, and cross-staff voices, which are notably difficult tasks that have often been overlooked in previous research. We propose an end-to-end system based on graph neural networks that clusters notes that belong to the same chord and connects them with edges if they are part of a voice. Our results show clear and consistent improvements over a previous approach on two datasets of different styles. To aid the qualitative analysis of our results, we support the export in symbolic music formats and provide a direct visualization of our outputs graph over the musical score. All code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/CPJKU/piano_svsep

Osteoporosis is a widespread and chronic metabolic bone disease that often remains undiagnosed and untreated due to limited access to bone mineral density (BMD) tests like Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). In response to this challenge, current advancements are pivoting towards detecting osteoporosis by examining alternative indicators from peripheral bone areas, with the goal of increasing screening rates without added expenses or time. In this paper, we present a method to predict osteoporosis using hand and wrist X-ray images, which are both widely accessible and affordable, though their link to DXA-based data is not thoroughly explored. Initially, our method segments the ulnar, radius, and metacarpal bones using a foundational model for image segmentation. Then, we use a self-supervised learning approach to extract meaningful representations without the need for explicit labels, and move on to classify osteoporosis in a supervised manner. Our method is evaluated on a dataset with 192 individuals, cross-referencing their verified osteoporosis conditions against the standard DXA test. With a notable classification score (AUC=0.83), our model represents a pioneering effort in leveraging vision-based techniques for osteoporosis identification from the peripheral skeleton sites.

The field of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) aims to build explainable and interpretable machine learning (or deep learning) methods without sacrificing prediction performance. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have been successful in making predictions, especially in image classification. However, these famous deep learning models use tens of millions of parameters based on a large number of pre-trained filters which have been repurposed from previous data sets. We propose a novel Interaction-based Convolutional Neural Network (ICNN) that does not make assumptions about the relevance of local information. Instead, we use a model-free Influence Score (I-score) to directly extract the influential information from images to form important variable modules. We demonstrate that the proposed method produces state-of-the-art prediction performance of 99.8% on a real-world data set classifying COVID-19 Chest X-ray images without sacrificing the explanatory power of the model. This proposed design can efficiently screen COVID-19 patients before human diagnosis, and will be the benchmark for addressing future XAI problems in large-scale data sets.

Split and rephrase is the task of breaking down a sentence into shorter ones that together convey the same meaning. We extract a rich new dataset for this task by mining Wikipedia's edit history: WikiSplit contains one million naturally occurring sentence rewrites, providing sixty times more distinct split examples and a ninety times larger vocabulary than the WebSplit corpus introduced by Narayan et al. (2017) as a benchmark for this task. Incorporating WikiSplit as training data produces a model with qualitatively better predictions that score 32 BLEU points above the prior best result on the WebSplit benchmark.

While making a tremendous impact in various fields, deep neural networks usually require large amounts of labeled data for training which are expensive to collect in many applications, especially in the medical domain. Unlabeled data, on the other hand, is much more abundant. Semi-supervised learning techniques, such as co-training, could provide a powerful tool to leverage unlabeled data. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, uncertainty-aware multi-view co-training (UMCT), to address semi-supervised learning on 3D data, such as volumetric data from medical imaging. In our work, co-training is achieved by exploiting multi-viewpoint consistency of 3D data. We generate different views by rotating or permuting the 3D data and utilize asymmetrical 3D kernels to encourage diversified features in different sub-networks. In addition, we propose an uncertainty-weighted label fusion mechanism to estimate the reliability of each view's prediction with Bayesian deep learning. As one view requires the supervision from other views in co-training, our self-adaptive approach computes a confidence score for the prediction of each unlabeled sample in order to assign a reliable pseudo label. Thus, our approach can take advantage of unlabeled data during training. We show the effectiveness of our proposed semi-supervised method on several public datasets from medical image segmentation tasks (NIH pancreas & LiTS liver tumor dataset). Meanwhile, a fully-supervised method based on our approach achieved state-of-the-art performances on both the LiTS liver tumor segmentation and the Medical Segmentation Decathlon (MSD) challenge, demonstrating the robustness and value of our framework, even when fully supervised training is feasible.

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a score, based on the model predictions, and setting a threshold on this score using a validation set. In this study, we address the problem of CP calibration when we only have access to a calibration set with noisy labels. We show how we can estimate the noise-free conformal threshold based on the noisy labeled data. We derive a finite sample coverage guarantee for uniform noise that remains effective even in tasks with a large number of classes. We dub our approach Noise-Aware Conformal Prediction (NACP). We illustrate the performance of the proposed results on several standard image classification datasets with a large number of classes.

In many jurisdictions, the excessive workload of courts leads to high delays. Suitable predictive AI models can assist legal professionals in their work, and thus enhance and speed up the process. So far, Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) datasets have been released in English, French, and Chinese. We publicly release a multilingual (German, French, and Italian), diachronic (2000-2020) corpus of 85K cases from the Federal Supreme Court of Switzerland (FSCS). We evaluate state-of-the-art BERT-based methods including two variants of BERT that overcome the BERT input (text) length limitation (up to 512 tokens). Hierarchical BERT has the best performance (approx. 68-70% Macro-F1-Score in German and French). Furthermore, we study how several factors (canton of origin, year of publication, text length, legal area) affect performance. We release both the benchmark dataset and our code to accelerate future research and ensure reproducibility.

Satellite connectivity is gaining increased attention as the demand for seamless internet access, especially in transportation and remote areas, continues to grow. For fast-moving objects such as aircraft, vehicles, or trains, satellite connectivity is critical due to their mobility and frequent presence in areas without terrestrial coverage. Maintaining reliable connectivity in these cases requires frequent switching between satellite beams, constellations, or orbits. To enhance user experience and address challenges like long switching times, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms can analyze historical connectivity data and predict network quality at specific locations. This allows for proactive measures, such as network switching before connectivity issues arise. In this paper, we analyze a real dataset of communication between a Geostationary Orbit (GEO) satellite and aircraft over multiple flights, using ML to predict signal quality. Our prediction model achieved an F1 score of 0.97 on the test data, demonstrating the accuracy of machine learning in predicting signal quality during flight. By enabling seamless broadband service, including roaming between different satellite constellations and providers, our model addresses the need for real-time predictions of signal quality. This approach can further be adapted to automate satellite and beam-switching mechanisms to improve overall communication efficiency. The model can also be retrained and applied to any moving object with satellite connectivity, using customized datasets, including connected vehicles and trains.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) is a particularly challenging variant of continual learning, where the goal is to learn to discriminate between all classes presented in an incremental fashion. Existing approaches often suffer from excessive forgetting and imbalance of the scores assigned to classes that have not been seen together during training. In this study, we introduce a novel approach, Prediction Error-based Classification (PEC), which differs from traditional discriminative and generative classification paradigms. PEC computes a class score by measuring the prediction error of a model trained to replicate the outputs of a frozen random neural network on data from that class. The method can be interpreted as approximating a classification rule based on Gaussian Process posterior variance. PEC offers several practical advantages, including sample efficiency, ease of tuning, and effectiveness even when data are presented one class at a time. Our empirical results show that PEC performs strongly in single-pass-through-data CIL, outperforming other rehearsal-free baselines in all cases and rehearsal-based methods with moderate replay buffer size in most cases across multiple benchmarks.

We study multiple rule-based and machine learning (ML) models for sepsis detection. We report the first neural network detection and prediction results on three categories of sepsis. We have used the retrospective Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-III dataset, restricted to intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Features for prediction were created from only common vital sign measurements. We show significant improvement of AUC score using neural network based ensemble model compared to single ML and rule-based models. For the detection of sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock, our model achieves an AUC of 0.97, 0.96 and 0.91, respectively. Four hours before the positive hours, it predicts the same three categories with an AUC of 0.90, 0.91 and 0.90 respectively. Further, we ranked the features and found that using six vital signs consistently provides higher detection and prediction AUC for all the models tested. Our novel ensemble model achieves highest AUC in detecting and predicting sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock in the MIMIC-III ICU patients, and is amenable to deployment in hospital settings.

Within this study, we propose a new approach for natural language processing using Bayesian networks to predict and analyze the context and how this approach can be applied to the Community Question Answering domain. We discuss how Bayesian networks can detect semantic relationships and dependencies between entities, and this is connected to different score-based approaches of structure-learning. We compared the Bayesian networks with different score metrics, such as the BIC, BDeu, K2 and Chow-Liu trees. Our proposed approach out-performs the baseline model at the precision metric. We also discuss the influence of penalty terms on the structure of Bayesian networks and how they can be used to analyze the relationships between entities. In addition, we examine the visualization of directed acyclic graphs to analyze semantic relationships. The article further identifies issues with detecting certain semantic classes that are separated in the structure of directed acyclic graphs. Finally, we evaluate potential improvements for the Bayesian network approach.

Next token prediction paradigm has been prevailing for autoregressive models in the era of LLMs. The current default sampling choice for popular LLMs is temperature scaling together with nucleus sampling to balance diversity and coherence. Nevertheless, such approach leads to inferior performance in various NLP tasks when the model is not certain about testing questions. To this end, we propose a brand new training-free decoding strategy, dubbed as Cautious Next Token Prediction (CNTP). In the decoding process, if the model has comparatively high prediction entropy at a certain step, we sample multiple trials starting from the step independently and stop when encountering any punctuation. Then we select the trial with the lowest perplexity score viewed as the most probable and reliable trial path given the model's capacity. The trial number is negatively correlated with the prediction confidence, i.e., the less confident the model is, the more trials it should sample. This is consistent with human beings' behaviour: when feeling uncertain or unconfident, one tends to think more creatively, exploring multiple thinking paths, to cautiously select the path one feels most confident about. Extensive experiments on both LLMs and MLLMs show that our proposed CNTP approach outperforms existing standard decoding strategies consistently by a clear margin. Moreover, the integration of CNTP with self consistency can further improve over vanilla self consistency. We believe our proposed CNTP has the potential to become one of the default choices for LLM decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/wyzjack/CNTP.

By leveraging the text-to-image diffusion priors, score distillation can synthesize 3D contents without paired text-3D training data. Instead of spending hours of online optimization per text prompt, recent studies have been focused on learning a text-to-3D generative network for amortizing multiple text-3D relations, which can synthesize 3D contents in seconds. However, existing score distillation methods are hard to scale up to a large amount of text prompts due to the difficulties in aligning pretrained diffusion prior with the distribution of rendered images from various text prompts. Current state-of-the-arts such as Variational Score Distillation finetune the pretrained diffusion model to minimize the noise prediction error so as to align the distributions, which are however unstable to train and will impair the model's comprehension capability to numerous text prompts. Based on the observation that the diffusion models tend to have lower noise prediction errors at earlier timesteps, we propose Asynchronous Score Distillation (ASD), which minimizes the noise prediction error by shifting the diffusion timestep to earlier ones. ASD is stable to train and can scale up to 100k prompts. It reduces the noise prediction error without changing the weights of pre-trained diffusion model, thus keeping its strong comprehension capability to prompts. We conduct extensive experiments across different 2D diffusion models, including Stable Diffusion and MVDream, and text-to-3D generators, including Hyper-iNGP, 3DConv-Net and Triplane-Transformer. The results demonstrate ASD's effectiveness in stable 3D generator training, high-quality 3D content synthesis, and its superior prompt-consistency, especially under large prompt corpus.

Semiconductor lasers have been rapidly evolving to meet the demands of next-generation optical networks. This imposes much more stringent requirements on the laser reliability, which are dominated by degradation mechanisms (e.g., sudden degradation) limiting the semiconductor laser lifetime. Physics-based approaches are often used to characterize the degradation behavior analytically, yet explicit domain knowledge and accurate mathematical models are required. Building such models can be very challenging due to a lack of a full understanding of the complex physical processes inducing the degradation under various operating conditions. To overcome the aforementioned limitations, we propose a new data-driven approach, extracting useful insights from the operational monitored data to predict the degradation trend without requiring any specific knowledge or using any physical model. The proposed approach is based on an unsupervised technique, a conditional variational autoencoder, and validated using vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) and tunable edge emitting laser reliability data. The experimental results confirm that our model (i) achieves a good degradation prediction and generalization performance by yielding an F1 score of 95.3%, (ii) outperforms several baseline ML based anomaly detection techniques, and (iii) helps to shorten the aging tests by early predicting the failed devices before the end of the test and thereby saving costs

This paper presents a comprehensive study on resume classification to reduce the time and labor needed to screen an overwhelming number of applications significantly, while improving the selection of suitable candidates. A total of 6,492 resumes are extracted from 24,933 job applications for 252 positions designated into four levels of experience for Clinical Research Coordinators (CRC). Each resume is manually annotated to its most appropriate CRC position by experts through several rounds of triple annotation to establish guidelines. As a result, a high Kappa score of 61% is achieved for inter-annotator agreement. Given this dataset, novel transformer-based classification models are developed for two tasks: the first task takes a resume and classifies it to a CRC level (T1), and the second task takes both a resume and a job description to apply and predicts if the application is suited to the job T2. Our best models using section encoding and multi-head attention decoding give results of 73.3% to T1 and 79.2% to T2. Our analysis shows that the prediction errors are mostly made among adjacent CRC levels, which are hard for even experts to distinguish, implying the practical value of our models in real HR platforms.

While 2D diffusion models generate realistic, high-detail images, 3D shape generation methods like Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) built on these 2D diffusion models produce cartoon-like, over-smoothed shapes. To help explain this discrepancy, we show that the image guidance used in Score Distillation can be understood as the velocity field of a 2D denoising generative process, up to the choice of a noise term. In particular, after a change of variables, SDS resembles a high-variance version of Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models (DDIM) with a differently-sampled noise term: SDS introduces noise i.i.d. randomly at each step, while DDIM infers it from the previous noise predictions. This excessive variance can lead to over-smoothing and unrealistic outputs. We show that a better noise approximation can be recovered by inverting DDIM in each SDS update step. This modification makes SDS's generative process for 2D images almost identical to DDIM. In 3D, it removes over-smoothing, preserves higher-frequency detail, and brings the generation quality closer to that of 2D samplers. Experimentally, our method achieves better or similar 3D generation quality compared to other state-of-the-art Score Distillation methods, all without training additional neural networks or multi-view supervision, and providing useful insights into relationship between 2D and 3D asset generation with diffusion models.

Drug discovery is a complex and resource-intensive process, making early prediction of approval outcomes critical for optimizing research investments. While classical machine learning and deep learning methods have shown promise in drug approval prediction, their limited interpretability constraints their impact. Here, we present DrugReasoner, a reasoning-based large language model (LLM) built on the LLaMA architecture and fine-tuned with group relative policy optimization (GRPO) to predict the likelihood of small-molecule approval. DrugReasoner integrates molecular descriptors with comparative reasoning against structurally similar approved and unapproved compounds, generating predictions alongside step-by-step rationales and confidence scores. DrugReasoner achieved robust performance with an AUC of 0.732 and an F1 score of 0.729 on the validation set and 0.725 and 0.718 on the test set, respectively. These results outperformed conventional baselines, including logistic regression, support vector machine, and k-nearest neighbors and had competitive performance relative to XGBoost. On an external independent dataset, DrugReasoner outperformed both baseline and the recently developed ChemAP model, achieving an AUC of 0.728 and an F1-score of 0.774, while maintaining high precision and balanced sensitivity, demonstrating robustness in real-world scenarios. These findings demonstrate that DrugReasoner not only delivers competitive predictive accuracy but also enhances transparency through its reasoning outputs, thereby addressing a key bottleneck in AI-assisted drug discovery. This study highlights the potential of reasoning-augmented LLMs as interpretable and effective tools for pharmaceutical decision-making.

Verifiers or reward models are often used to enhance the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs). A common approach is the Best-of-N method, where N candidate solutions generated by the LLM are ranked by a verifier, and the best one is selected. While LLM-based verifiers are typically trained as discriminative classifiers to score solutions, they do not utilize the text generation capabilities of pretrained LLMs. To overcome this limitation, we instead propose training verifiers using the ubiquitous next-token prediction objective, jointly on verification and solution generation. Compared to standard verifiers, such generative verifiers (GenRM) can benefit from several advantages of LLMs: they integrate seamlessly with instruction tuning, enable chain-of-thought reasoning, and can utilize additional inference-time compute via majority voting for better verification. We demonstrate that when using Gemma-based verifiers on algorithmic and grade-school math reasoning tasks, GenRM outperforms discriminative verifiers and LLM-as-a-Judge, showing a 16-64% improvement in the percentage of problems solved with Best-of-N. Furthermore, we show that GenRM scales favorably across dataset size, model capacity, and inference-time compute.

LLM-as-a-judge has become a promising paradigm for using large language models (LLMs) to evaluate natural language generation (NLG), but the uncertainty of its evaluation remains underexplored. This lack of reliability may limit its deployment in many applications. This work presents the first framework to analyze the uncertainty by offering a prediction interval of LLM-based scoring via conformal prediction. Conformal prediction constructs continuous prediction intervals from a single evaluation run, and we design an ordinal boundary adjustment for discrete rating tasks. We also suggest a midpoint-based score within the interval as a low-bias alternative to raw model score and weighted average. We perform extensive experiments and analysis, which show that conformal prediction can provide valid prediction interval with coverage guarantees. We also explore the usefulness of interval midpoint and judge reprompting for better judgment.

Neural language models encode rich knowledge about entities and their relationships which can be extracted from their representations using probing. Common properties of nouns (e.g., red strawberries, small ant) are, however, more challenging to extract compared to other types of knowledge because they are rarely explicitly stated in texts. We hypothesize this to mainly be the case for perceptual properties which are obvious to the participants in the communication. We propose to extract these properties from images and use them in an ensemble model, in order to complement the information that is extracted from language models. We consider perceptual properties to be more concrete than abstract properties (e.g., interesting, flawless). We propose to use the adjectives' concreteness score as a lever to calibrate the contribution of each source (text vs. images). We evaluate our ensemble model in a ranking task where the actual properties of a noun need to be ranked higher than other non-relevant properties. Our results show that the proposed combination of text and images greatly improves noun property prediction compared to powerful text-based language models.

The ability to accurately model the fitness landscape of protein sequences is critical to a wide range of applications, from quantifying the effects of human variants on disease likelihood, to predicting immune-escape mutations in viruses and designing novel biotherapeutic proteins. Deep generative models of protein sequences trained on multiple sequence alignments have been the most successful approaches so far to address these tasks. The performance of these methods is however contingent on the availability of sufficiently deep and diverse alignments for reliable training. Their potential scope is thus limited by the fact many protein families are hard, if not impossible, to align. Large language models trained on massive quantities of non-aligned protein sequences from diverse families address these problems and show potential to eventually bridge the performance gap. We introduce Tranception, a novel transformer architecture leveraging autoregressive predictions and retrieval of homologous sequences at inference to achieve state-of-the-art fitness prediction performance. Given its markedly higher performance on multiple mutants, robustness to shallow alignments and ability to score indels, our approach offers significant gain of scope over existing approaches. To enable more rigorous model testing across a broader range of protein families, we develop ProteinGym -- an extensive set of multiplexed assays of variant effects, substantially increasing both the number and diversity of assays compared to existing benchmarks.

Video prediction is a challenging task. The quality of video frames from current state-of-the-art (SOTA) generative models tends to be poor and generalization beyond the training data is difficult. Furthermore, existing prediction frameworks are typically not capable of simultaneously handling other video-related tasks such as unconditional generation or interpolation. In this work, we devise a general-purpose framework called Masked Conditional Video Diffusion (MCVD) for all of these video synthesis tasks using a probabilistic conditional score-based denoising diffusion model, conditioned on past and/or future frames. We train the model in a manner where we randomly and independently mask all the past frames or all the future frames. This novel but straightforward setup allows us to train a single model that is capable of executing a broad range of video tasks, specifically: future/past prediction -- when only future/past frames are masked; unconditional generation -- when both past and future frames are masked; and interpolation -- when neither past nor future frames are masked. Our experiments show that this approach can generate high-quality frames for diverse types of videos. Our MCVD models are built from simple non-recurrent 2D-convolutional architectures, conditioning on blocks of frames and generating blocks of frames. We generate videos of arbitrary lengths autoregressively in a block-wise manner. Our approach yields SOTA results across standard video prediction and interpolation benchmarks, with computation times for training models measured in 1-12 days using le 4 GPUs. Project page: https://mask-cond-video-diffusion.github.io ; Code : https://github.com/voletiv/mcvd-pytorch

This paper describes Tacotron 2, a neural network architecture for speech synthesis directly from text. The system is composed of a recurrent sequence-to-sequence feature prediction network that maps character embeddings to mel-scale spectrograms, followed by a modified WaveNet model acting as a vocoder to synthesize timedomain waveforms from those spectrograms. Our model achieves a mean opinion score (MOS) of 4.53 comparable to a MOS of 4.58 for professionally recorded speech. To validate our design choices, we present ablation studies of key components of our system and evaluate the impact of using mel spectrograms as the input to WaveNet instead of linguistic, duration, and F_0 features. We further demonstrate that using a compact acoustic intermediate representation enables significant simplification of the WaveNet architecture.

This work presents HeadArtist for 3D head generation from text descriptions. With a landmark-guided ControlNet serving as the generative prior, we come up with an efficient pipeline that optimizes a parameterized 3D head model under the supervision of the prior distillation itself. We call such a process self score distillation (SSD). In detail, given a sampled camera pose, we first render an image and its corresponding landmarks from the head model, and add some particular level of noise onto the image. The noisy image, landmarks, and text condition are then fed into the frozen ControlNet twice for noise prediction. Two different classifier-free guidance (CFG) weights are applied during these two predictions, and the prediction difference offers a direction on how the rendered image can better match the text of interest. Experimental results suggest that our approach delivers high-quality 3D head sculptures with adequate geometry and photorealistic appearance, significantly outperforming state-ofthe-art methods. We also show that the same pipeline well supports editing the generated heads, including both geometry deformation and appearance change.

Due to the powerful vision-language reasoning and generalization abilities, multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have garnered significant attention in the field of end-to-end (E2E) autonomous driving. However, their application to closed-loop systems remains underexplored, and current MLLM-based methods have not shown clear superiority to mainstream E2E imitation learning approaches. In this work, we propose ReasonPlan, a novel MLLM fine-tuning framework designed for closed-loop driving through holistic reasoning with a self-supervised Next Scene Prediction task and supervised Decision Chain-of-Thought process. This dual mechanism encourages the model to align visual representations with actionable driving context, while promoting interpretable and causally grounded decision making. We curate a planning-oriented decision reasoning dataset, namely PDR, comprising 210k diverse and high-quality samples. Our method outperforms the mainstream E2E imitation learning method by a large margin of 19% L2 and 16.1 driving score on Bench2Drive benchmark. Furthermore, ReasonPlan demonstrates strong zero-shot generalization on unseen DOS benchmark, highlighting its adaptability in handling zero-shot corner cases. Code and dataset will be found in https://github.com/Liuxueyi/ReasonPlan.

Autoregressive models, built based on the Next Token Prediction (NTP) paradigm, show great potential in developing a unified framework that integrates both language and vision tasks. In this work, we rethink the NTP for autoregressive image generation and propose a novel Next Patch Prediction (NPP) paradigm. Our key idea is to group and aggregate image tokens into patch tokens containing high information density. With patch tokens as a shorter input sequence, the autoregressive model is trained to predict the next patch, thereby significantly reducing the computational cost. We further propose a multi-scale coarse-to-fine patch grouping strategy that exploits the natural hierarchical property of image data. Experiments on a diverse range of models (100M-1.4B parameters) demonstrate that the next patch prediction paradigm could reduce the training cost to around 0.6 times while improving image generation quality by up to 1.0 FID score on the ImageNet benchmark. We highlight that our method retains the original autoregressive model architecture without introducing additional trainable parameters or specifically designing a custom image tokenizer, thus ensuring flexibility and seamless adaptation to various autoregressive models for visual generation.

Matbench Discovery simulates the deployment of machine learning (ML) energy models in a high-throughput search for stable inorganic crystals. We address the disconnect between (i) thermodynamic stability and formation energy and (ii) in-domain vs out-of-distribution performance. Alongside this paper, we publish a Python package to aid with future model submissions and a growing online leaderboard with further insights into trade-offs between various performance metrics. To answer the question which ML methodology performs best at materials discovery, our initial release explores a variety of models including random forests, graph neural networks (GNN), one-shot predictors, iterative Bayesian optimizers and universal interatomic potentials (UIP). Ranked best-to-worst by their test set F1 score on thermodynamic stability prediction, we find CHGNet > M3GNet > MACE > ALIGNN > MEGNet > CGCNN > CGCNN+P > Wrenformer > BOWSR > Voronoi tessellation fingerprints with random forest. The top 3 models are UIPs, the winning methodology for ML-guided materials discovery, achieving F1 scores of ~0.6 for crystal stability classification and discovery acceleration factors (DAF) of up to 5x on the first 10k most stable predictions compared to dummy selection from our test set. We also highlight a sharp disconnect between commonly used global regression metrics and more task-relevant classification metrics. Accurate regressors are susceptible to unexpectedly high false-positive rates if those accurate predictions lie close to the decision boundary at 0 eV/atom above the convex hull where most materials are. Our results highlight the need to focus on classification metrics that actually correlate with improved stability hit rate.

The Quantum-Inspired Stacked Integrated Concept Graph Model (QISICGM) is an innovative machine learning framework that harnesses quantum-inspired techniques to predict diabetes risk with exceptional accuracy and efficiency. Utilizing the PIMA Indians Diabetes dataset augmented with 2,000 synthetic samples to mitigate class imbalance (total: 2,768 samples, 1,949 positives), QISICGM integrates a self-improving concept graph with a stacked ensemble comprising Random Forests (RF), Extra Trees (ET), transformers, convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and feed-forward neural networks (FFNNs). This approach achieves an out-of-fold (OOF) F1 score of 0.8933 and an AUC of 0.8699, outperforming traditional methods. Quantum inspired elements, such as phase feature mapping and neighborhood sequence modeling, enrich feature representations, enabling CPU-efficient inference at 8.5 rows per second. This paper presents a detailed architecture, theoretical foundations, code insights, and performance evaluations, including visualizations from the outputs subfolder. The open-source implementation (v1.0.0) is available at https://github.com/keninayoung/QISICGM, positioning QISICGM as a potential benchmark for AI-assisted clinical triage in diabetes and beyond. Ultimately, this work emphasizes trustworthy AI through calibration, interpretability, and open-source reproducibility.

Government fiscal policies, particularly annual union budgets, exert significant influence on financial markets. However, real-time analysis of budgetary impacts on sector-specific equity performance remains methodologically challenging and largely unexplored. This study proposes a framework to systematically identify and rank sectors poised to benefit from India's Union Budget announcements. The framework addresses two core tasks: (1) multi-label classification of excerpts from budget transcripts into 81 predefined economic sectors, and (2) performance ranking of these sectors. Leveraging a comprehensive corpus of Indian Union Budget transcripts from 1947 to 2025, we introduce BASIR (Budget-Assisted Sectoral Impact Ranking), an annotated dataset mapping excerpts from budgetary transcripts to sectoral impacts. Our architecture incorporates fine-tuned embeddings for sector identification, coupled with language models that rank sectors based on their predicted performances. Our results demonstrate 0.605 F1-score in sector classification, and 0.997 NDCG score in predicting ranks of sectors based on post-budget performances. The methodology enables investors and policymakers to quantify fiscal policy impacts through structured, data-driven insights, addressing critical gaps in manual analysis. The annotated dataset has been released under CC-BY-NC-SA-4.0 license to advance computational economics research.

Drug discovery is a complex and time-intensive process that requires identifying and validating new therapeutic candidates. Computational approaches using large-scale biomedical knowledge graphs (KGs) offer a promising solution to accelerate this process. However, extracting meaningful insights from large-scale KGs remains challenging due to the complexity of graph traversal. Existing subgraph-based methods are tailored to graph neural networks (GNNs), making them incompatible with other models, such as large language models (LLMs). We introduce K-Paths, a retrieval framework that extracts structured, diverse, and biologically meaningful paths from KGs. Integrating these paths enables LLMs and GNNs to effectively predict unobserved drug-drug and drug-disease interactions. Unlike traditional path-ranking approaches, K-Paths retrieves and transforms paths into a structured format that LLMs can directly process, facilitating explainable reasoning. K-Paths employs a diversity-aware adaptation of Yen's algorithm to retrieve the K shortest loopless paths between entities in an interaction query, prioritizing biologically relevant and diverse relationships. Our experiments on benchmark datasets show that K-Paths improves the zero-shot performance of Llama 8.1B's F1-score by 12.45 points on drug repurposing and 13.42 points on interaction severity prediction. We also show that Llama 70B achieves F1-score gains of 6.18 and 8.46 points, respectively. K-Paths also improves the supervised training efficiency of EmerGNN, a state-of-the-art GNN, by reducing KG size by 90% while maintaining strong predictive performance. Beyond its scalability and efficiency, K-Paths uniquely bridges the gap between KGs and LLMs, providing explainable rationales for predicted interactions. These capabilities show that K-Paths is a valuable tool for efficient data-driven drug discovery.

Adverse drug events (ADEs) significantly impact clinical research, causing many clinical trial failures. ADE prediction is key for developing safer medications and enhancing patient outcomes. To support this effort, we introduce CT-ADE, a dataset for multilabel predictive modeling of ADEs in monopharmacy treatments. CT-ADE integrates data from 2,497 unique drugs, encompassing 168,984 drug-ADE pairs extracted from clinical trials, annotated with patient and contextual information, and comprehensive ADE concepts standardized across multiple levels of the MedDRA ontology. Preliminary analyses with large language models (LLMs) achieved F1-scores up to 55.90%. Models using patient and contextual information showed F1-score improvements of 21%-38% over models using only chemical structure data. Our results highlight the importance of target population and treatment regimens in the predictive modeling of ADEs, offering greater performance gains than LLM domain specialization and scaling. CT-ADE provides an essential tool for researchers aiming to leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhance patient safety and minimize the impact of ADEs on pharmaceutical research and development. The dataset is publicly accessible at https://github.com/ds4dh/CT-ADE.

Predictor-based methods have substantially enhanced Neural Architecture Search (NAS) optimization. The efficacy of these predictors is largely influenced by the method of encoding neural network architectures. While traditional encodings used an adjacency matrix describing the graph structure of a neural network, novel encodings embrace a variety of approaches from unsupervised pretraining of latent representations to vectors of zero-cost proxies. In this paper, we categorize and investigate neural encodings from three main types: structural, learned, and score-based. Furthermore, we extend these encodings and introduce unified encodings, that extend NAS predictors to multiple search spaces. Our analysis draws from experiments conducted on over 1.5 million neural network architectures on NAS spaces such as NASBench-101 (NB101), NB201, NB301, Network Design Spaces (NDS), and TransNASBench-101. Building on our study, we present our predictor FLAN: Flow Attention for NAS. FLAN integrates critical insights on predictor design, transfer learning, and unified encodings to enable more than an order of magnitude cost reduction for training NAS accuracy predictors. Our implementation and encodings for all neural networks are open-sourced at https://github.com/abdelfattah-lab/flan_nas{https://github.com/abdelfattah-lab/flan\_nas}.

Understanding the 3D structures of protein multimers is crucial, as they play a vital role in regulating various cellular processes. It has been empirically confirmed that the multimer structure prediction~(MSP) can be well handled in a step-wise assembly fashion using provided dimer structures and predicted protein-protein interactions~(PPIs). However, due to the biological gap in the formation of dimers and larger multimers, directly applying PPI prediction techniques can often cause a poor generalization to the MSP task. To address this challenge, we aim to extend the PPI knowledge to multimers of different scales~(i.e., chain numbers). Specifically, we propose \textsc{PromptMSP}, a pre-training and Prompt tuning framework for Multimer Structure Prediction. First, we tailor the source and target tasks for effective PPI knowledge learning and efficient inference, respectively. We design PPI-inspired prompt learning to narrow the gaps of two task formats and generalize the PPI knowledge to multimers of different scales. We provide a meta-learning strategy to learn a reliable initialization of the prompt model, enabling our prompting framework to effectively adapt to limited data for large-scale multimers. Empirically, we achieve both significant accuracy (RMSD and TM-Score) and efficiency improvements compared to advanced MSP models. The code, data and checkpoints are released at https://github.com/zqgao22/PromptMSP.

The dynamic nature of proteins is crucial for determining their biological functions and properties, for which Monte Carlo (MC) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations stand as predominant tools to study such phenomena. By utilizing empirically derived force fields, MC or MD simulations explore the conformational space through numerically evolving the system via Markov chain or Newtonian mechanics. However, the high-energy barrier of the force fields can hamper the exploration of both methods by the rare event, resulting in inadequately sampled ensemble without exhaustive running. Existing learning-based approaches perform direct sampling yet heavily rely on target-specific simulation data for training, which suffers from high data acquisition cost and poor generalizability. Inspired by simulated annealing, we propose Str2Str, a novel structure-to-structure translation framework capable of zero-shot conformation sampling with roto-translation equivariant property. Our method leverages an amortized denoising score matching objective trained on general crystal structures and has no reliance on simulation data during both training and inference. Experimental results across several benchmarking protein systems demonstrate that Str2Str outperforms previous state-of-the-art generative structure prediction models and can be orders of magnitude faster compared to long MD simulations. Our open-source implementation is available at https://github.com/lujiarui/Str2Str

An accurate solar wind speed model is important for space weather predictions, catastrophic event warnings, and other issues concerning solar wind - magnetosphere interaction. In this work, we construct a model based on convolutional neural network (CNN) and Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms, considering a solar wind source surface of R_{rm SS}=2.5R_odot, aiming to predict the solar wind speed at the Lagrange 1 (L1) point of the Sun-Earth system. The input of our model consists of four Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) magnetograms at R_{rm SS}, which are 7, 6, 5, and 4 days before the target epoch. Reduced magnetograms are used to promote the model's efficiency. We use the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) photospheric magnetograms and the potential field extrapolation model to generate PFSS magnetograms at the source surface. The model provides predictions of the continuous test dataset with an averaged correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.52 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 80.8 km/s in an eight-fold validation training scheme with the time resolution of the data as small as one hour. The model also has the potential to forecast high speed streams of the solar wind, which can be quantified with a general threat score of 0.39.

The integration of knowledge graphs with deep learning is thriving in improving the performance of various natural language processing (NLP) tasks. In this paper, we focus on knowledge-infused link prediction and question answering using language models, T5, and BLOOM across three domains: Aviation, Movie, and Web. In this context, we infuse knowledge in large and small language models and study their performance, and find the performance to be similar. For the link prediction task on the Aviation Knowledge Graph, we obtain a 0.2 hits@1 score using T5-small, T5-base, T5-large, and BLOOM. Using template-based scripts, we create a set of 1 million synthetic factoid QA pairs in the aviation domain from National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reports. On our curated QA pairs, the three models of T5 achieve a 0.7 hits@1 score. We validate out findings with the paired student t-test and Cohen's kappa scores. For link prediction on Aviation Knowledge Graph using T5-small and T5-large, we obtain a Cohen's kappa score of 0.76, showing substantial agreement between the models. Thus, we infer that small language models perform similar to large language models with the infusion of knowledge.

The human driver is no longer the only one concerned with the complexity of the driving scenarios. Autonomous vehicles (AV) are similarly becoming involved in the process. Nowadays, the development of AVs in urban places raises essential safety concerns for vulnerable road users (VRUs) such as pedestrians. Therefore, to make the roads safer, it is critical to classify and predict the pedestrians' future behavior. In this paper, we present a framework based on multiple variations of the Transformer models able to infer predict the pedestrian street-crossing decision-making based on the dynamics of its initiated trajectory. We showed that using solely bounding boxes as input features can outperform the previous state-of-the-art results by reaching a prediction accuracy of 91\% and an F1-score of 0.83 on the PIE dataset. In addition, we introduced a large-size simulated dataset (CP2A) using CARLA for action prediction. Our model has similarly reached high accuracy (91\%) and F1-score (0.91) on this dataset. Interestingly, we showed that pre-training our Transformer model on the CP2A dataset and then fine-tuning it on the PIE dataset is beneficial for the action prediction task. Finally, our model's results are successfully supported by the "human attention to bounding boxes" experiment which we created to test humans ability for pedestrian action prediction without the need for environmental context. The code for the dataset and the models is available at: https://github.com/linaashaji/Action_Anticipation

In this paper we show how using satellite images can improve the accuracy of housing price estimation models. Using Los Angeles County's property assessment dataset, by transferring learning from an Inception-v3 model pretrained on ImageNet, we could achieve an improvement of ~10% in R-squared score compared to two baseline models that only use non-image features of the house.

Roman Numeral analysis is the important task of identifying chords and their functional context in pieces of tonal music. This paper presents a new approach to automatic Roman Numeral analysis in symbolic music. While existing techniques rely on an intermediate lossy representation of the score, we propose a new method based on Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) that enable the direct description and processing of each individual note in the score. The proposed architecture can leverage notewise features and interdependencies between notes but yield onset-wise representation by virtue of our novel edge contraction algorithm. Our results demonstrate that ChordGNN outperforms existing state-of-the-art models, achieving higher accuracy in Roman Numeral analysis on the reference datasets. In addition, we investigate variants of our model using proposed techniques such as NADE, and post-processing of the chord predictions. The full source code for this work is available at https://github.com/manoskary/chordgnn

While neural networks allow highly accurate predictions in many tasks, their lack of robustness towards even slight input perturbations often hampers their deployment. Adversarial attacks such as the seminal projected gradient descent (PGD) offer an effective means to evaluate a model's robustness and dedicated solutions have been proposed for attacks on semantic segmentation or optical flow estimation. While they attempt to increase the attack's efficiency, a further objective is to balance its effect, so that it acts on the entire image domain instead of isolated point-wise predictions. This often comes at the cost of optimization stability and thus efficiency. Here, we propose CosPGD, an attack that encourages more balanced errors over the entire image domain while increasing the attack's overall efficiency. To this end, CosPGD leverages a simple alignment score computed from any pixel-wise prediction and its target to scale the loss in a smooth and fully differentiable way. It leads to efficient evaluations of a model's robustness for semantic segmentation as well as regression models (such as optical flow, disparity estimation, or image restoration), and it allows it to outperform the previous SotA attack on semantic segmentation. We provide code for the CosPGD algorithm and example usage at https://github.com/shashankskagnihotri/cospgd.

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a chronic lung disease affecting 35% of extremely low birth weight infants. Defined by oxygen dependence at 36 weeks postmenstrual age, it causes lifelong respiratory complications. However, preventive interventions carry severe risks, including neurodevelopmental impairment, ventilator-induced lung injury, and systemic complications. Therefore, early BPD prognosis and prediction of BPD outcome is crucial to avoid unnecessary toxicity in low risk infants. Admission radiographs of extremely preterm infants are routinely acquired within 24h of life and could serve as a non-invasive prognostic tool. In this work, we developed and investigated a deep learning approach using chest X-rays from 163 extremely low-birth-weight infants (leq32 weeks gestation, 401-999g) obtained within 24 hours of birth. We fine-tuned a ResNet-50 pretrained specifically on adult chest radiographs, employing progressive layer freezing with discriminative learning rates to prevent overfitting and evaluated a CutMix augmentation and linear probing. For moderate/severe BPD outcome prediction, our best performing model with progressive freezing, linear probing and CutMix achieved an AUROC of 0.78 pm 0.10, balanced accuracy of 0.69 pm 0.10, and an F1-score of 0.67 pm 0.11. In-domain pre-training significantly outperformed ImageNet initialization (p = 0.031) which confirms domain-specific pretraining to be important for BPD outcome prediction. Routine IRDS grades showed limited prognostic value (AUROC 0.57 pm 0.11), confirming the need of learned markers. Our approach demonstrates that domain-specific pretraining enables accurate BPD prediction from routine day-1 radiographs. Through progressive freezing and linear probing, the method remains computationally feasible for site-level implementation and future federated learning deployments.

Recent progress has shown that large-scale pre-training using contrastive image-text pairs can be a promising alternative for high-quality visual representation learning from natural language supervision. Benefiting from a broader source of supervision, this new paradigm exhibits impressive transferability to downstream classification tasks and datasets. However, the problem of transferring the knowledge learned from image-text pairs to more complex dense prediction tasks has barely been visited. In this work, we present a new framework for dense prediction by implicitly and explicitly leveraging the pre-trained knowledge from CLIP. Specifically, we convert the original image-text matching problem in CLIP to a pixel-text matching problem and use the pixel-text score maps to guide the learning of dense prediction models. By further using the contextual information from the image to prompt the language model, we are able to facilitate our model to better exploit the pre-trained knowledge. Our method is model-agnostic, which can be applied to arbitrary dense prediction systems and various pre-trained visual backbones including both CLIP models and ImageNet pre-trained models. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior performance of our methods on semantic segmentation, object detection, and instance segmentation tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/raoyongming/DenseCLIP

Cognitively inspired Natural Language Pro-cessing uses human-derived behavioral datalike eye-tracking data, which reflect the seman-tic representations of language in the humanbrain to augment the neural nets to solve arange of tasks spanning syntax and semanticswith the aim of teaching machines about lan-guage processing mechanisms. In this paper,we use the ZuCo 1.0 and ZuCo 2.0 dataset con-taining the eye-gaze features to explore differ-ent linguistic models to directly predict thesegaze features for each word with respect to itssentence. We tried different neural networkmodels with the words as inputs to predict thetargets. And after lots of experimentation andfeature engineering finally devised a novel ar-chitecture consisting of RoBERTa Token Clas-sifier with a dense layer on top for languagemodeling and a stand-alone model consistingof dense layers followed by a transformer layerfor the extra features we engineered. Finally,we took the mean of the outputs of both thesemodels to make the final predictions. We eval-uated the models using mean absolute error(MAE) and the R2 score for each target.

In this research, we investigate techniques to detect hate speech in movies. We introduce a new dataset collected from the subtitles of six movies, where each utterance is annotated either as hate, offensive or normal. We apply transfer learning techniques of domain adaptation and fine-tuning on existing social media datasets, namely from Twitter and Fox News. We evaluate different representations, i.e., Bag of Words (BoW), Bi-directional Long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM), and Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) on 11k movie subtitles. The BERT model obtained the best macro-averaged F1-score of 77%. Hence, we show that transfer learning from the social media domain is efficacious in classifying hate and offensive speech in movies through subtitles.

In this work, we explore a multimodal semi-supervised learning approach for punctuation prediction by learning representations from large amounts of unlabelled audio and text data. Conventional approaches in speech processing typically use forced alignment to encoder per frame acoustic features to word level features and perform multimodal fusion of the resulting acoustic and lexical representations. As an alternative, we explore attention based multimodal fusion and compare its performance with forced alignment based fusion. Experiments conducted on the Fisher corpus show that our proposed approach achieves ~6-9% and ~3-4% absolute improvement (F1 score) over the baseline BLSTM model on reference transcripts and ASR outputs respectively. We further improve the model robustness to ASR errors by performing data augmentation with N-best lists which achieves up to an additional ~2-6% improvement on ASR outputs. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of semi-supervised learning approach by performing ablation study on various sizes of the corpus. When trained on 1 hour of speech and text data, the proposed model achieved ~9-18% absolute improvement over baseline model.

We present a novel supervised word alignment method based on cross-language span prediction. We first formalize a word alignment problem as a collection of independent predictions from a token in the source sentence to a span in the target sentence. As this is equivalent to a SQuAD v2.0 style question answering task, we then solve this problem by using multilingual BERT, which is fine-tuned on a manually created gold word alignment data. We greatly improved the word alignment accuracy by adding the context of the token to the question. In the experiments using five word alignment datasets among Chinese, Japanese, German, Romanian, French, and English, we show that the proposed method significantly outperformed previous supervised and unsupervised word alignment methods without using any bitexts for pretraining. For example, we achieved an F1 score of 86.7 for the Chinese-English data, which is 13.3 points higher than the previous state-of-the-art supervised methods.

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions inherently suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference, can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. Here, we introduce and evaluate two correction methods -- linear calibration correction and Tweedie's correction -- that substantially reduce prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. Linear calibration corrects bias through a straightforward linear transformation derived from held-out calibration data, whereas Tweedie's correction leverages empirical Bayes principles to directly address shrinkage-induced biases by exploiting score functions derived from the model's learning patterns. Through analytical exercises and experiments using Demographic and Health Survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed methods meet or outperform existing approaches that either require (a) adjustments to training pipelines or (b) additional labeled data. These approaches may represent a promising avenue for improving the reliability of causal inference when direct outcome measures are limited or unavailable, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm where a single upstream data creation team produces predictions usable by many downstream teams across diverse ML pipelines.

Clinical predictive models often rely on patients' electronic health records (EHR), but integrating medical knowledge to enhance predictions and decision-making is challenging. This is because personalized predictions require personalized knowledge graphs (KGs), which are difficult to generate from patient EHR data. To address this, we propose GraphCare, an open-world framework that uses external KGs to improve EHR-based predictions. Our method extracts knowledge from large language models (LLMs) and external biomedical KGs to build patient-specific KGs, which are then used to train our proposed Bi-attention AugmenTed (BAT) graph neural network (GNN) for healthcare predictions. On two public datasets, MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV, GraphCare surpasses baselines in four vital healthcare prediction tasks: mortality, readmission, length of stay (LOS), and drug recommendation. On MIMIC-III, it boosts AUROC by 17.6\% and 6.6\% for mortality and readmission, and F1-score by 7.9\% and 10.8\% for LOS and drug recommendation, respectively. Notably, GraphCare demonstrates a substantial edge in scenarios with limited data availability. Our findings highlight the potential of using external KGs in healthcare prediction tasks and demonstrate the promise of GraphCare in generating personalized KGs for promoting personalized medicine.

Existing Score-Based Models (SBMs) can be categorized into constrained SBMs (CSBMs) or unconstrained SBMs (USBMs) according to their parameterization approaches. CSBMs model probability density functions as Boltzmann distributions, and assign their predictions as the negative gradients of some scalar-valued energy functions. On the other hand, USBMs employ flexible architectures capable of directly estimating scores without the need to explicitly model energy functions. In this paper, we demonstrate that the architectural constraints of CSBMs may limit their modeling ability. In addition, we show that USBMs' inability to preserve the property of conservativeness may lead to degraded performance in practice. To address the above issues, we propose Quasi-Conservative Score-Based Models (QCSBMs) for keeping the advantages of both CSBMs and USBMs. Our theoretical derivations demonstrate that the training objective of QCSBMs can be efficiently integrated into the training processes by leveraging the Hutchinson's trace estimator. In addition, our experimental results on the CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, ImageNet, and SVHN datasets validate the effectiveness of QCSBMs. Finally, we justify the advantage of QCSBMs using an example of a one-layered autoencoder.

Diffusion models are a new class of generative models, and have dramatically promoted image generation with unprecedented quality and diversity. Existing diffusion models mainly try to reconstruct input image from a corrupted one with a pixel-wise or feature-wise constraint along spatial axes. However, such point-based reconstruction may fail to make each predicted pixel/feature fully preserve its neighborhood context, impairing diffusion-based image synthesis. As a powerful source of automatic supervisory signal, context has been well studied for learning representations. Inspired by this, we for the first time propose ConPreDiff to improve diffusion-based image synthesis with context prediction. We explicitly reinforce each point to predict its neighborhood context (i.e., multi-stride features/tokens/pixels) with a context decoder at the end of diffusion denoising blocks in training stage, and remove the decoder for inference. In this way, each point can better reconstruct itself by preserving its semantic connections with neighborhood context. This new paradigm of ConPreDiff can generalize to arbitrary discrete and continuous diffusion backbones without introducing extra parameters in sampling procedure. Extensive experiments are conducted on unconditional image generation, text-to-image generation and image inpainting tasks. Our ConPreDiff consistently outperforms previous methods and achieves a new SOTA text-to-image generation results on MS-COCO, with a zero-shot FID score of 6.21.

Interpretability is essential for machine learning models to be trusted and deployed in critical domains. However, existing methods for interpreting text models are often complex, lack mathematical foundations, and their performance is not guaranteed. In this paper, we propose FRED (Faithful and Robust Explainer for textual Documents), a novel method for interpreting predictions over text. FRED offers three key insights to explain a model prediction: (1) it identifies the minimal set of words in a document whose removal has the strongest influence on the prediction, (2) it assigns an importance score to each token, reflecting its influence on the model's output, and (3) it provides counterfactual explanations by generating examples similar to the original document, but leading to a different prediction. We establish the reliability of FRED through formal definitions and theoretical analyses on interpretable classifiers. Additionally, our empirical evaluation against state-of-the-art methods demonstrates the effectiveness of FRED in providing insights into text models.

Business Intelligence (BI) is crucial in modern enterprises and billion-dollar business. Traditionally, technical experts like database administrators would manually prepare BI-models (e.g., in star or snowflake schemas) that join tables in data warehouses, before less-technical business users can run analytics using end-user dashboarding tools. However, the popularity of self-service BI (e.g., Tableau and Power-BI) in recent years creates a strong demand for less technical end-users to build BI-models themselves. We develop an Auto-BI system that can accurately predict BI models given a set of input tables, using a principled graph-based optimization problem we propose called k-Min-Cost-Arborescence (k-MCA), which holistically considers both local join prediction and global schema-graph structures, leveraging a graph-theoretical structure called arborescence. While we prove k-MCA is intractable and inapproximate in general, we develop novel algorithms that can solve k-MCA optimally, which is shown to be efficient in practice with sub-second latency and can scale to the largest BI-models we encounter (with close to 100 tables). Auto-BI is rigorously evaluated on a unique dataset with over 100K real BI models we harvested, as well as on 4 popular TPC benchmarks. It is shown to be both efficient and accurate, achieving over 0.9 F1-score on both real and synthetic benchmarks.

Background: This study aimed to evaluate and compare the performance of classical machine learning models (CMLs) and large language models (LLMs) in predicting mortality associated with COVID-19 by utilizing a high-dimensional tabular dataset. Materials and Methods: We analyzed data from 9,134 COVID-19 patients collected across four hospitals. Seven CML models, including XGBoost and random forest (RF), were trained and evaluated. The structured data was converted into text for zero-shot classification by eight LLMs, including GPT-4 and Mistral-7b. Additionally, Mistral-7b was fine-tuned using the QLoRA approach to enhance its predictive capabilities. Results: Among the CML models, XGBoost and RF achieved the highest accuracy, with F1 scores of 0.87 for internal validation and 0.83 for external validation. In the LLM category, GPT-4 was the top performer with an F1 score of 0.43. Fine-tuning Mistral-7b significantly improved its recall from 1% to 79%, resulting in an F1 score of 0.74, which was stable during external validation. Conclusion: While LLMs show moderate performance in zero-shot classification, fine-tuning can significantly enhance their effectiveness, potentially aligning them closer to CML models. However, CMLs still outperform LLMs in high-dimensional tabular data tasks.

Cell instance segmentation (CIS) is crucial for identifying individual cell morphologies in histopathological images, providing valuable insights for biological and medical research. While unsupervised CIS (UCIS) models aim to reduce the heavy reliance on labor-intensive image annotations, they fail to accurately capture cell boundaries, causing missed detections and poor performance. Recognizing the absence of error-free instances as a key limitation, we present COIN (COnfidence score-guided INstance distillation), a novel annotation-free framework with three key steps: (1) Increasing the sensitivity for the presence of error-free instances via unsupervised semantic segmentation with optimal transport, leveraging its ability to discriminate spatially minor instances, (2) Instance-level confidence scoring to measure the consistency between model prediction and refined mask and identify highly confident instances, offering an alternative to ground truth annotations, and (3) Progressive expansion of confidence with recursive self-distillation. Extensive experiments across six datasets show COIN outperforming existing UCIS methods, even surpassing semi- and weakly-supervised approaches across all metrics on the MoNuSeg and TNBC datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/shjo-april/COIN.

Stock Price Trend Prediction (SPTP) based on Limit Order Book (LOB) data is a fundamental challenge in financial markets. Despite advances in deep learning, existing models fail to generalize across different market conditions and struggle to reliably predict short-term trends. Surprisingly, by adapting a simple MLP-based architecture to LOB, we show that we surpass SoTA performance; thus, challenging the necessity of complex architectures. Unlike past work that shows robustness issues, we propose TLOB, a transformer-based model that uses a dual attention mechanism to capture spatial and temporal dependencies in LOB data. This allows it to adaptively focus on the market microstructure, making it particularly effective for longer-horizon predictions and volatile market conditions. We also introduce a new labeling method that improves on previous ones, removing the horizon bias. We evaluate TLOB's effectiveness using the established FI-2010 benchmark, which exceeds the state-of-the-art by an average of 3.7 F1-score(\%). Additionally, TLOB shows improvements on Tesla and Intel with a 1.3 and 7.7 increase in F1-score(\%), respectively. Additionally, we empirically show how stock price predictability has declined over time (-6.68 absolute points in F1-score(\%)), highlighting the growing market efficiencies. Predictability must be considered in relation to transaction costs, so we experimented with defining trends using an average spread, reflecting the primary transaction cost. The resulting performance deterioration underscores the complexity of translating trend classification into profitable trading strategies. We argue that our work provides new insights into the evolving landscape of stock price trend prediction and sets a strong foundation for future advancements in financial AI. We release the code at https://github.com/LeonardoBerti00/TLOB.

Objective: To improve prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) progression to End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) using machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models applied to an integrated clinical and claims dataset of varying observation windows, supported by explainable AI (XAI) to enhance interpretability and reduce bias. Materials and Methods: We utilized data about 10,326 CKD patients, combining their clinical and claims information from 2009 to 2018. Following data preprocessing, cohort identification, and feature engineering, we evaluated multiple statistical, ML and DL models using data extracted from five distinct observation windows. Feature importance and Shapley value analysis were employed to understand key predictors. Models were tested for robustness, clinical relevance, misclassification errors and bias issues. Results: Integrated data models outperformed those using single data sources, with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model achieving the highest AUC (0.93) and F1 score (0.65). A 24-month observation window was identified as optimal for balancing early detection and prediction accuracy. The 2021 eGFR equation improved prediction accuracy and reduced racial bias, notably for African American patients. Discussion: Improved ESRD prediction accuracy, results interpretability and bias mitigation strategies presented in this study have the potential to significantly enhance CKD and ESRD management, support targeted early interventions and reduce healthcare disparities. Conclusion: This study presents a robust framework for predicting ESRD outcomes in CKD patients, improving clinical decision-making and patient care through multi-sourced, integrated data and AI/ML methods. Future research will expand data integration and explore the application of this framework to other chronic diseases.

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

In this paper, we study the problem of inference in high-order structured prediction tasks. In the context of Markov random fields, the goal of a high-order inference task is to maximize a score function on the space of labels, and the score function can be decomposed into sum of unary and high-order potentials. We apply a generative model approach to study the problem of high-order inference, and provide a two-stage convex optimization algorithm for exact label recovery. We also provide a new class of hypergraph structural properties related to hyperedge expansion that drives the success in general high-order inference problems. Finally, we connect the performance of our algorithm and the hyperedge expansion property using a novel hypergraph Cheeger-type inequality.

Conventional wisdom suggests that autoregressive models are used to process discrete data. When applied to continuous modalities such as visual data, Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) typically resorts to quantization-based approaches to cast the data into a discrete space, which can introduce significant information loss. To tackle this issue, we introduce a Continuous VAR framework that enables direct visual autoregressive generation without vector quantization. The underlying theoretical foundation is strictly proper scoring rules, which provide powerful statistical tools capable of evaluating how well a generative model approximates the true distribution. Within this framework, all we need is to select a strictly proper score and set it as the training objective to optimize. We primarily explore a class of training objectives based on the energy score, which is likelihood-free and thus overcomes the difficulty of making probabilistic predictions in the continuous space. Previous efforts on continuous autoregressive generation, such as GIVT and diffusion loss, can also be derived from our framework using other strictly proper scores. Source code: https://github.com/shaochenze/EAR.

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard raster-scan "next-token prediction". This simple, intuitive methodology allows autoregressive (AR) transformers to learn visual distributions fast and generalize well: VAR, for the first time, makes AR models surpass diffusion transformers in image generation. On ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, VAR significantly improve AR baseline by improving Frechet inception distance (FID) from 18.65 to 1.80, inception score (IS) from 80.4 to 356.4, with around 20x faster inference speed. It is also empirically verified that VAR outperforms the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) in multiple dimensions including image quality, inference speed, data efficiency, and scalability. Scaling up VAR models exhibits clear power-law scaling laws similar to those observed in LLMs, with linear correlation coefficients near -0.998 as solid evidence. VAR further showcases zero-shot generalization ability in downstream tasks including image in-painting, out-painting, and editing. These results suggest VAR has initially emulated the two important properties of LLMs: Scaling Laws and zero-shot task generalization. We have released all models and codes to promote the exploration of AR/VAR models for visual generation and unified learning.

Recent advances in 3D neural representations and instance-level editing models have enabled the efficient creation of high-quality 3D content. However, achieving precise local 3D edits remains challenging, especially for Gaussian Splatting, due to inconsistent multi-view 2D part segmentations and inherently ambiguous nature of Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) loss. To address these limitations, we propose RoMaP, a novel local 3D Gaussian editing framework that enables precise and drastic part-level modifications. First, we introduce a robust 3D mask generation module with our 3D-Geometry Aware Label Prediction (3D-GALP), which uses spherical harmonics (SH) coefficients to model view-dependent label variations and soft-label property, yielding accurate and consistent part segmentations across viewpoints. Second, we propose a regularized SDS loss that combines the standard SDS loss with additional regularizers. In particular, an L1 anchor loss is introduced via our Scheduled Latent Mixing and Part (SLaMP) editing method, which generates high-quality part-edited 2D images and confines modifications only to the target region while preserving contextual coherence. Additional regularizers, such as Gaussian prior removal, further improve flexibility by allowing changes beyond the existing context, and robust 3D masking prevents unintended edits. Experimental results demonstrate that our RoMaP achieves state-of-the-art local 3D editing on both reconstructed and generated Gaussian scenes and objects qualitatively and quantitatively, making it possible for more robust and flexible part-level 3D Gaussian editing. Code is available at https://janeyeon.github.io/romap.

Autoregressive models have shown remarkable success in image generation by adapting sequential prediction techniques from language modeling. However, applying these approaches to images requires discretizing continuous pixel data through vector quantization methods like VQ-VAE. To alleviate the quantization errors that existed in VQ-VAE, recent works tend to use larger codebooks. However, this will accordingly expand vocabulary size, complicating the autoregressive modeling task. This paper aims to find a way to enjoy the benefits of large codebooks without making autoregressive modeling more difficult. Through empirical investigation, we discover that tokens with similar codeword representations produce similar effects on the final generated image, revealing significant redundancy in large codebooks. Based on this insight, we propose to predict tokens from coarse to fine (CTF), realized by assigning the same coarse label for similar tokens. Our framework consists of two stages: (1) an autoregressive model that sequentially predicts coarse labels for each token in the sequence, and (2) an auxiliary model that simultaneously predicts fine-grained labels for all tokens conditioned on their coarse labels. Experiments on ImageNet demonstrate our method's superior performance, achieving an average improvement of 59 points in Inception Score compared to baselines. Notably, despite adding an inference step, our approach achieves faster sampling speeds.

Understanding and predicting human emotional and physiological states using wearable sensors has important applications in stress monitoring, mental health assessment, and affective computing. This study presents a novel Multi-Task Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) that performs Electrodermal Activity (EDA) prediction and emotion classification simultaneously, using the publicly available WESAD dataset. The model integrates psychological self-report features (PANAS and SAM) with a physics-inspired differential equation representing EDA dynamics, enforcing biophysically grounded constraints through a custom loss function. This loss combines EDA regression, emotion classification, and a physics residual term for improved interpretability. The architecture supports dual outputs for both tasks and is trained under a unified multi-task framework. Evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation, the model achieves an average EDA RMSE of 0.0362, Pearson correlation of 0.9919, and F1-score of 94.08 percent. These results outperform classical models such as SVR and XGBoost, as well as ablated variants like emotion-only and EDA-only models. In addition, the learned physical parameters including decay rate (alpha_0), emotional sensitivity (beta), and time scaling (gamma) are interpretable and stable across folds, aligning with known principles of human physiology. This work is the first to introduce a multi-task PINN framework for wearable emotion recognition, offering improved performance, generalizability, and model transparency. The proposed system provides a foundation for future interpretable and multimodal applications in healthcare and human-computer interaction.

In speech generation tasks, human subjective ratings, usually referred to as the opinion score, are considered the "gold standard" for speech quality evaluation, with the mean opinion score (MOS) serving as the primary evaluation metric. Due to the high cost of human annotation, several MOS prediction systems have emerged in the speech domain, demonstrating good performance. These MOS prediction models are trained using annotations from previous speech-related challenges. However, compared to the speech domain, the singing domain faces data scarcity and stricter copyright protections, leading to a lack of high-quality MOS-annotated datasets for singing. To address this, we propose SingMOS, a high-quality and diverse MOS dataset for singing, covering a range of Chinese and Japanese datasets. These synthesized vocals are generated using state-of-the-art models in singing synthesis, conversion, or resynthesis tasks and are rated by professional annotators alongside real vocals. Data analysis demonstrates the diversity and reliability of our dataset. Additionally, we conduct further exploration on SingMOS, providing insights for singing MOS prediction and guidance for the continued expansion of SingMOS.

Facial beauty prediction (FBP) is a significant visual recognition problem to make assessment of facial attractiveness that is consistent to human perception. To tackle this problem, various data-driven models, especially state-of-the-art deep learning techniques, were introduced, and benchmark dataset become one of the essential elements to achieve FBP. Previous works have formulated the recognition of facial beauty as a specific supervised learning problem of classification, regression or ranking, which indicates that FBP is intrinsically a computation problem with multiple paradigms. However, most of FBP benchmark datasets were built under specific computation constrains, which limits the performance and flexibility of the computational model trained on the dataset. In this paper, we argue that FBP is a multi-paradigm computation problem, and propose a new diverse benchmark dataset, called SCUT-FBP5500, to achieve multi-paradigm facial beauty prediction. The SCUT-FBP5500 dataset has totally 5500 frontal faces with diverse properties (male/female, Asian/Caucasian, ages) and diverse labels (face landmarks, beauty scores within [1,~5], beauty score distribution), which allows different computational models with different FBP paradigms, such as appearance-based/shape-based facial beauty classification/regression model for male/female of Asian/Caucasian. We evaluated the SCUT-FBP5500 dataset for FBP using different combinations of feature and predictor, and various deep learning methods. The results indicates the improvement of FBP and the potential applications based on the SCUT-FBP5500.

Recent advances in zero-shot text-to-3D human generation, which employ the human model prior (eg, SMPL) or Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) with pre-trained text-to-image diffusion models, have been groundbreaking. However, SDS may provide inaccurate gradient directions under the weak diffusion guidance, as it tends to produce over-smoothed results and generate body textures that are inconsistent with the detailed mesh geometry. Therefore, directly leverage existing strategies for high-fidelity text-to-3D human texturing is challenging. In this work, we propose a model called PaintHuman to addresses the challenges from two aspects. We first propose a novel score function, Denoised Score Distillation (DSD), which directly modifies the SDS by introducing negative gradient components to iteratively correct the gradient direction and generate high-quality textures. In addition, we use the depth map as a geometric guidance to ensure the texture is semantically aligned to human mesh surfaces. To guarantee the quality of rendered results, we employ geometry-aware networks to predict surface materials and render realistic human textures. Extensive experiments, benchmarked against state-of-the-art methods, validate the efficacy of our approach.

Aspect sentiment quadruple prediction (ASQP) facilitates a detailed understanding of opinions expressed in a text by identifying the opinion term, aspect term, aspect category and sentiment polarity for each opinion. However, annotating a full set of training examples to fine-tune models for ASQP is a resource-intensive process. In this study, we explore the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) for zero- and few-shot learning on the ASQP task across five diverse datasets. We report F1 scores slightly below those obtained with state-of-the-art fine-tuned models but exceeding previously reported zero- and few-shot performance. In the 40-shot setting on the Rest16 restaurant domain dataset, LLMs achieved an F1 score of 52.46, compared to 60.39 by the best-performing fine-tuned method MVP. Additionally, we report the performance of LLMs in target aspect sentiment detection (TASD), where the F1 scores were also close to fine-tuned models, achieving 66.03 on Rest16 in the 40-shot setting, compared to 72.76 with MVP. While human annotators remain essential for achieving optimal performance, LLMs can reduce the need for extensive manual annotation in ASQP tasks.

We present our system (denoted as T05) for the VoiceMOS Challenge (VMC) 2024. Our system was designed for the VMC 2024 Track 1, which focused on the accurate prediction of naturalness mean opinion score (MOS) for high-quality synthetic speech. In addition to a pretrained self-supervised learning (SSL)-based speech feature extractor, our system incorporates a pretrained image feature extractor to capture the difference of synthetic speech observed in speech spectrograms. We first separately train two MOS predictors that use either of an SSL-based or spectrogram-based feature. Then, we fine-tune the two predictors for better MOS prediction using the fusion of two extracted features. In the VMC 2024 Track 1, our T05 system achieved first place in 7 out of 16 evaluation metrics and second place in the remaining 9 metrics, with a significant difference compared to those ranked third and below. We also report the results of our ablation study to investigate essential factors of our system.

In visual decision making, high-level features, such as object categories, have a strong influence on choice. However, the impact of low-level features on behavior is less understood partly due to the high correlation between high- and low-level features in the stimuli presented (e.g., objects of the same category are more likely to share low-level features). To disentangle these effects, we propose a method that de-correlates low- and high-level visual properties in a novel set of stimuli. Our method uses two Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) as candidate models of the ventral visual stream: the CORnet-S that has high neural predictivity in high-level, IT-like responses and the VGG-16 that has high neural predictivity in low-level responses. Triplets (root, image1, image2) of stimuli are parametrized by the level of low- and high-level similarity of images extracted from the different layers. These stimuli are then used in a decision-making task where participants are tasked to choose the most similar-to-the-root image. We found that different networks show differing abilities to predict the effects of low-versus-high-level similarity: while CORnet-S outperforms VGG-16 in explaining human choices based on high-level similarity, VGG-16 outperforms CORnet-S in explaining human choices based on low-level similarity. Using Brain-Score, we observed that the behavioral prediction abilities of different layers of these networks qualitatively corresponded to their ability to explain neural activity at different levels of the visual hierarchy. In summary, our algorithm for stimulus set generation enables the study of how different representations in the visual stream affect high-level cognitive behaviors.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data -- e.g., from a generative model -- to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPI provably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification -- augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images -- and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

Medical coding is essential for standardizing clinical data and communication but is often time-consuming and prone to errors. Traditional Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods struggle with automating coding due to the large label space, lengthy text inputs, and the absence of supporting evidence annotations that justify code selection. Recent advancements in Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) offer promising solutions to these challenges. In this work, we introduce MedCodER, a Generative AI framework for automatic medical coding that leverages extraction, retrieval, and re-ranking techniques as core components. MedCodER achieves a micro-F1 score of 0.60 on International Classification of Diseases (ICD) code prediction, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, we present a new dataset containing medical records annotated with disease diagnoses, ICD codes, and supporting evidence texts (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13308316). Ablation tests confirm that MedCodER's performance depends on the integration of each of its aforementioned components, as performance declines when these components are evaluated in isolation.

Recent studies show that Question Answering (QA) based on Answer Sentence Selection (AS2) can be improved by generating an improved answer from the top-k ranked answer sentences (termed GenQA). This allows for synthesizing the information from multiple candidates into a concise, natural-sounding answer. However, creating large-scale supervised training data for GenQA models is very challenging. In this paper, we propose to train a GenQA model by transferring knowledge from a trained AS2 model, to overcome the aforementioned issue. First, we use an AS2 model to produce a ranking over answer candidates for a set of questions. Then, we use the top ranked candidate as the generation target, and the next k top ranked candidates as context for training a GenQA model. We also propose to use the AS2 model prediction scores for loss weighting and score-conditioned input/output shaping, to aid the knowledge transfer. Our evaluation on three public and one large industrial datasets demonstrates the superiority of our approach over the AS2 baseline, and GenQA trained using supervised data.

We introduce a protein language model for determining the complete sequence of a peptide based on measurement of a limited set of amino acids. To date, protein sequencing relies on mass spectrometry, with some novel edman degregation based platforms able to sequence non-native peptides. Current protein sequencing techniques face limitations in accurately identifying all amino acids, hindering comprehensive proteome analysis. Our method simulates partial sequencing data by selectively masking amino acids that are experimentally difficult to identify in protein sequences from the UniRef database. This targeted masking mimics real-world sequencing limitations. We then modify and finetune a ProtBert derived transformer-based model, for a new downstream task predicting these masked residues, providing an approximation of the complete sequence. Evaluating on three bacterial Escherichia species, we achieve per-amino-acid accuracy up to 90.5% when only four amino acids ([KCYM]) are known. Structural assessment using AlphaFold and TM-score validates the biological relevance of our predictions. The model also demonstrates potential for evolutionary analysis through cross-species performance. This integration of simulated experimental constraints with computational predictions offers a promising avenue for enhancing protein sequence analysis, potentially accelerating advancements in proteomics and structural biology by providing a probabilistic reconstruction of the complete protein sequence from limited experimental data.

In this paper, we explore the idea of analysing the historical bias of contextual language models based on BERT by measuring their adequacy with respect to Early Modern (EME) and Modern (ME) English. In our preliminary experiments, we perform fill-in-the-blank tests with 60 masked sentences (20 EME-specific, 20 ME-specific and 20 generic) and three different models (i.e., BERT Base, MacBERTh, English HLM). We then rate the model predictions according to a 5-point bipolar scale between the two language varieties and derive a weighted score to measure the adequacy of each model to EME and ME varieties of English.

Analytical framework for predicting General Matrix Multiplication (GEMM) performance on modern GPUs, focusing on runtime, power consumption, and energy efficiency. Our study employs two approaches: a custom-implemented tiled matrix multiplication kernel for fundamental analysis, and NVIDIA's CUTLASS library for comprehensive performance data collection across advanced configurations. Using the NVIDIA RTX 4070 as our experimental platform, we developed a Random Forest-based prediction model with multi-output regression capability. Through analysis of both naive tiled matrix multiplication with varying tile sizes (1 to 32) and 16,128 CUTLASS GEMM operations across diverse configurations, we identified critical performance patterns related to matrix dimensions, thread block configurations, and memory access patterns. Our framework achieved exceptional accuracy with an R^2 score of 0.98 for runtime prediction (mean error 15.57%) and 0.78 for power prediction (median error 5.42%). The system successfully predicts performance across matrix sizes, demonstrating robust scaling behavior. Our results show that optimal tile size selection can improve performance by up to 3.2x while reducing power consumption by 22% compared to baseline configurations. Analysis of shared memory utilization and SM occupancy reveals that tile sizes of 16x16 achieve the best balance between parallelism and resource usage. The implementation of our framework, including prediction models and analysis tools, is available as an open-source project at GPPerf [https://github.com/pavlyhalim/GPPerf].

Many clinical tasks require an understanding of specialized data, such as medical images and genomics, which is not typically found in general-purpose large multimodal models. Building upon Gemini's multimodal models, we develop several models within the new Med-Gemini family that inherit core capabilities of Gemini and are optimized for medical use via fine-tuning with 2D and 3D radiology, histopathology, ophthalmology, dermatology and genomic data. Med-Gemini-2D sets a new standard for AI-based chest X-ray (CXR) report generation based on expert evaluation, exceeding previous best results across two separate datasets by an absolute margin of 1% and 12%, where 57% and 96% of AI reports on normal cases, and 43% and 65% on abnormal cases, are evaluated as "equivalent or better" than the original radiologists' reports. We demonstrate the first ever large multimodal model-based report generation for 3D computed tomography (CT) volumes using Med-Gemini-3D, with 53% of AI reports considered clinically acceptable, although additional research is needed to meet expert radiologist reporting quality. Beyond report generation, Med-Gemini-2D surpasses the previous best performance in CXR visual question answering (VQA) and performs well in CXR classification and radiology VQA, exceeding SoTA or baselines on 17 of 20 tasks. In histopathology, ophthalmology, and dermatology image classification, Med-Gemini-2D surpasses baselines across 18 out of 20 tasks and approaches task-specific model performance. Beyond imaging, Med-Gemini-Polygenic outperforms the standard linear polygenic risk score-based approach for disease risk prediction and generalizes to genetically correlated diseases for which it has never been trained. Although further development and evaluation are necessary in the safety-critical medical domain, our results highlight the potential of Med-Gemini across a wide range of medical tasks.

This paper presents a new approach for assessing uncertainty in machine translation by simultaneously evaluating translation quality and providing a reliable confidence score. Our approach utilizes conformal predictive distributions to produce prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, meaning that for any given significance level epsilon, we can expect the true quality score of a translation to fall out of the interval at a rate of 1-epsilon. In this paper, we demonstrate how our method outperforms a simple, but effective baseline on six different language pairs in terms of coverage and sharpness. Furthermore, we validate that our approach requires the data exchangeability assumption to hold for optimal performance.

Recent advances in agentic workflows have enabled the automation of tasks such as professional document generation. However, they primarily focus on textual quality, neglecting visual structure and style, which are crucial for readability and engagement. This gap arises mainly from the absence of suitable reward models to guide agentic workflows toward producing documents with stronger structural and stylistic quality. To address this, we propose DocReward, a document reward model that evaluates documents based on their structure and style. We construct a multi-domain dataset DocPair of 117K paired documents, covering 32 domains and 267 document types, each including a high- and low-professionalism document with identical content but different structure and style. This enables the model to evaluate professionalism comprehensively, and in a textual-quality-agnostic way. DocReward is trained using the Bradley-Terry loss to score documents, penalizing predictions that contradict the annotated ranking. To assess the performance of reward models, we create a test dataset containing document bundles ranked by well-educated human evaluators. Notably, DocReward outperforms GPT-4o and GPT-5 in accuracy by 30.6 and 19.4 percentage points, respectively, demonstrating its superiority over baselines. In an extrinsic evaluation of document generation, DocReward achieves a significantly higher win rate of 60.8%, compared to GPT-5's 37.7% win rate, demonstrating its utility in guiding generation agents toward producing human-preferred documents.

This technical report describes our QuAVF@NTU-NVIDIA submission to the Ego4D Talking to Me (TTM) Challenge 2023. Based on the observation from the TTM task and the provided dataset, we propose to use two separate models to process the input videos and audio. By doing so, we can utilize all the labeled training data, including those without bounding box labels. Furthermore, we leverage the face quality score from a facial landmark prediction model for filtering noisy face input data. The face quality score is also employed in our proposed quality-aware fusion for integrating the results from two branches. With the simple architecture design, our model achieves 67.4% mean average precision (mAP) on the test set, which ranks first on the leaderboard and outperforms the baseline method by a large margin. Code is available at: https://github.com/hsi-che-lin/Ego4D-QuAVF-TTM-CVPR23

Generative models of natural images have progressed towards high fidelity samples by the strong leveraging of scale. We attempt to carry this success to the field of video modeling by showing that large Generative Adversarial Networks trained on the complex Kinetics-600 dataset are able to produce video samples of substantially higher complexity and fidelity than previous work. Our proposed model, Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), scales to longer and higher resolution videos by leveraging a computationally efficient decomposition of its discriminator. We evaluate on the related tasks of video synthesis and video prediction, and achieve new state-of-the-art Fr\'echet Inception Distance for prediction for Kinetics-600, as well as state-of-the-art Inception Score for synthesis on the UCF-101 dataset, alongside establishing a strong baseline for synthesis on Kinetics-600.

In industry deep learning application, our manually labeled data has a certain number of noisy data. To solve this problem and achieve more than 90 score in dev dataset, we present a simple method to find the noisy data and re-label the noisy data by human, given the model predictions as references in human labeling. In this paper, we illustrate our idea for a broad set of deep learning tasks, includes classification, sequence tagging, object detection, sequence generation, click-through rate prediction. The dev dataset evaluation results and human evaluation results verify our idea.

When reading medical images such as a computed tomography (CT) scan, radiologists generally search across the image to find lesions, characterize and measure them, and then describe them in the radiological report. To automate this process, we propose a multitask universal lesion analysis network (MULAN) for joint detection, tagging, and segmentation of lesions in a variety of body parts, which greatly extends existing work of single-task lesion analysis on specific body parts. MULAN is based on an improved Mask R-CNN framework with three head branches and a 3D feature fusion strategy. It achieves the state-of-the-art accuracy in the detection and tagging tasks on the DeepLesion dataset, which contains 32K lesions in the whole body. We also analyze the relationship between the three tasks and show that tag predictions can improve detection accuracy via a score refinement layer.

Recent large language models (LLMs) can generate long Chain-of-Thought (CoT) at test time, enabling them to solve complex tasks. These reasoning steps in CoT are often assumed as a faithful reflection of the model's internal thinking process, and used to monitor unsafe intentions. However, we find many reasoning steps don't truly contribute to LLMs' prediction. We measure the step-wise causal influence of each reasoning step on the model's final prediction with a proposed True Thinking Score (TTS). We reveal that LLMs often interleave between true-thinking steps (which are genuinely used to produce the final output) and decorative-thinking steps (which only give the appearance of reasoning but have minimal causal impact). Notably, only a small subset of the total reasoning steps have a high TTS that causally drive the model's prediction: e.g., for the AIME dataset, only an average of 2.3% of reasoning steps in CoT have a TTS >= 0.7 (range: 0-1) under the Qwen-2.5 model. Furthermore, we identify a TrueThinking direction in the latent space of LLMs. By steering along or against this direction, we can force the model to perform or disregard certain CoT steps when computing the final result. Finally, we highlight that self-verification steps in CoT (i.e., aha moments) can also be decorative, where LLMs do not truly verify their solution. Steering along the TrueThinking direction can force internal reasoning over these steps, resulting in a change in the final results. Overall, our work reveals that LLMs often verbalize reasoning steps without actually performing them internally, which undermines both the efficiency of LLM reasoning and the trustworthiness of CoT.

Online misinformation poses a global risk with harmful implications for society. Ordinary social media users are known to actively reply to misinformation posts with counter-misinformation messages, which is shown to be effective in containing the spread of misinformation. Such a practice is defined as "social correction". Nevertheless, it remains unknown how users respond to social correction in real-world scenarios, especially, will it have a corrective or backfire effect on users. Investigating this research question is pivotal for developing and refining strategies that maximize the efficacy of social correction initiatives. To fill this gap, we conduct an in-depth study to characterize and predict the user response to social correction in a data-driven manner through the lens of X (Formerly Twitter), where the user response is instantiated as the reply that is written toward a counter-misinformation message. Particularly, we first create a novel dataset with 55, 549 triples of misinformation tweets, counter-misinformation replies, and responses to counter-misinformation replies, and then curate a taxonomy to illustrate different kinds of user responses. Next, fine-grained statistical analysis of reply linguistic and engagement features as well as repliers' user attributes is conducted to illustrate the characteristics that are significant in determining whether a reply will have a corrective or backfire effect. Finally, we build a user response prediction model to identify whether a social correction will be corrective, neutral, or have a backfire effect, which achieves a promising F1 score of 0.816. Our work enables stakeholders to monitor and predict user responses effectively, thus guiding the use of social correction to maximize their corrective impact and minimize backfire effects. The code and data is accessible on https://github.com/claws-lab/response-to-social-correction.

No-Reference Image Quality Assessment (NR-IQA) aims to assess the perceptual quality of images in accordance with human subjective perception. Unfortunately, existing NR-IQA methods are far from meeting the needs of predicting accurate quality scores on GAN-based distortion images. To this end, we propose Multi-dimension Attention Network for no-reference Image Quality Assessment (MANIQA) to improve the performance on GAN-based distortion. We firstly extract features via ViT, then to strengthen global and local interactions, we propose the Transposed Attention Block (TAB) and the Scale Swin Transformer Block (SSTB). These two modules apply attention mechanisms across the channel and spatial dimension, respectively. In this multi-dimensional manner, the modules cooperatively increase the interaction among different regions of images globally and locally. Finally, a dual branch structure for patch-weighted quality prediction is applied to predict the final score depending on the weight of each patch's score. Experimental results demonstrate that MANIQA outperforms state-of-the-art methods on four standard datasets (LIVE, TID2013, CSIQ, and KADID-10K) by a large margin. Besides, our method ranked first place in the final testing phase of the NTIRE 2022 Perceptual Image Quality Assessment Challenge Track 2: No-Reference. Codes and models are available at https://github.com/IIGROUP/MANIQA.

Many methods have been proposed for removing batch effects and aligning single-cell RNA (scRNA) datasets. However, performance is typically evaluated based on multiple parameters and few datasets, creating challenges in assessing which method is best for aligning data at scale. Here, we introduce the K-Neighbors Intersection (KNI) score, a single score that both penalizes batch effects and measures accuracy at cross-dataset cell-type label prediction alongside carefully curated small (scMARK) and large (scREF) benchmarks comprising 11 and 46 human scRNA studies respectively, where we have standardized author labels. Using the KNI score, we evaluate and optimize approaches for cross-dataset single-cell RNA integration. We introduce Batch Adversarial single-cell Variational Inference (BA-scVI), as a new variant of scVI that uses adversarial training to penalize batch-effects in the encoder and decoder, and show this approach outperforms other methods. In the resulting aligned space, we find that the granularity of cell-type groupings is conserved, supporting the notion that whole-organism cell-type maps can be created by a single model without loss of information.

Machine learning models routinely automate decisions in applications like lending and hiring. In such settings, consumer protection rules require companies that deploy models to explain predictions to decision subjects. These rules are motivated, in part, by the belief that explanations can promote recourse by revealing information that individuals can use to contest or improve their outcomes. In practice, many companies comply with these rules by providing individuals with a list of the most important features for their prediction, which they identify based on feature importance scores from feature attribution methods such as SHAP or LIME. In this work, we show how these practices can undermine consumers by highlighting features that would not lead to an improved outcome and by explaining predictions that cannot be changed. We propose to address these issues by highlighting features based on their responsiveness score -- i.e., the probability that an individual can attain a target prediction by changing a specific feature. We develop efficient methods to compute responsiveness scores for any model and any dataset. We conduct an extensive empirical study on the responsiveness of explanations in lending. Our results show that standard practices in consumer finance can backfire by presenting consumers with reasons without recourse, and demonstrate how our approach improves consumer protection by highlighting responsive features and identifying fixed predictions.

Pyrolysis techniques have served to be a groundbreaking technique for effectively utilising natural and man-made biomass products like plastics, wood, crop residue, fruit peels etc. Recent advancements have shown a greater yield of essential products like biochar, bio-oil and other non-condensable gases by blending different biomasses in a certain ratio. This synergy effect of combining two pyrolytic raw materials i.e co-pyrolysis of algae and wood biomass has been systematically studied and grouped into 3 phases in this research paper-kinetic analysis of co-pyrolysis, correlation among proximate and ultimate analysis with bio-char yield and lastly grouping of different weight ratios based on biochar yield up to a certain percentage. Different ML and DL algorithms have been utilized for regression and classification techniques to give a comprehensive overview of the effect of the synergy of two different biomass materials on biochar yield. For the first phase, the best prediction of biochar yield was obtained by using a decision tree regressor with a perfect MSE score of 0.00, followed by a gradient-boosting regressor. The second phase was analyzed using both ML and DL techniques. Within ML, SVR proved to be the most convenient model with an accuracy score of 0.972 with DNN employed for deep learning technique. Finally, for the third phase, binary classification was applied to biochar yield with and without heating rate for biochar yield percentage above and below 40%. The best technique for ML was Support Vector followed by Random forest while ANN was the most suitable Deep Learning Technique.

In this work, we present Score MUsic Graph (SMUG)-Explain, a framework for generating and visualizing explanations of graph neural networks applied to arbitrary prediction tasks on musical scores. Our system allows the user to visualize the contribution of input notes (and note features) to the network output, directly in the context of the musical score. We provide an interactive interface based on the music notation engraving library Verovio. We showcase the usage of SMUG-Explain on the task of cadence detection in classical music. All code is available on https://github.com/manoskary/SMUG-Explain.

Text classification is a fundamental language task in Natural Language Processing. A variety of sequential models is capable making good predictions yet there is lack of connection between language semantics and prediction results. This paper proposes a novel influence score (I-score), a greedy search algorithm called Backward Dropping Algorithm (BDA), and a novel feature engineering technique called the "dagger technique". First, the paper proposes a novel influence score (I-score) to detect and search for the important language semantics in text document that are useful for making good prediction in text classification tasks. Next, a greedy search algorithm called the Backward Dropping Algorithm is proposed to handle long-term dependencies in the dataset. Moreover, the paper proposes a novel engineering technique called the "dagger technique" that fully preserve the relationship between explanatory variable and response variable. The proposed techniques can be further generalized into any feed-forward Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), and any neural network. A real-world application on the Internet Movie Database (IMDB) is used and the proposed methods are applied to improve prediction performance with an 81% error reduction comparing with other popular peers if I-score and "dagger technique" are not implemented.

We present a new human-human dialogue dataset - PhotoChat, the first dataset that casts light on the photo sharing behavior in onlin emessaging. PhotoChat contains 12k dialogues, each of which is paired with a user photo that is shared during the conversation. Based on this dataset, we propose two tasks to facilitate research on image-text modeling: a photo-sharing intent prediction task that predicts whether one intends to share a photo in the next conversation turn, and a photo retrieval task that retrieves the most relevant photo according to the dialogue context. In addition, for both tasks, we provide baseline models using the state-of-the-art models and report their benchmark performances. The best image retrieval model achieves 10.4% recall@1 (out of 1000 candidates) and the best photo intent prediction model achieves 58.1% F1 score, indicating that the dataset presents interesting yet challenging real-world problems. We are releasing PhotoChat to facilitate future research work among the community.

While deep reinforcement learning excels at solving tasks where large amounts of data can be collected through virtually unlimited interaction with the environment, learning from limited interaction remains a key challenge. We posit that an agent can learn more efficiently if we augment reward maximization with self-supervised objectives based on structure in its visual input and sequential interaction with the environment. Our method, Self-Predictive Representations(SPR), trains an agent to predict its own latent state representations multiple steps into the future. We compute target representations for future states using an encoder which is an exponential moving average of the agent's parameters and we make predictions using a learned transition model. On its own, this future prediction objective outperforms prior methods for sample-efficient deep RL from pixels. We further improve performance by adding data augmentation to the future prediction loss, which forces the agent's representations to be consistent across multiple views of an observation. Our full self-supervised objective, which combines future prediction and data augmentation, achieves a median human-normalized score of 0.415 on Atari in a setting limited to 100k steps of environment interaction, which represents a 55% relative improvement over the previous state-of-the-art. Notably, even in this limited data regime, SPR exceeds expert human scores on 7 out of 26 games. The code associated with this work is available at https://github.com/mila-iqia/spr

Risk scores are simple classification models that let users make quick risk predictions by adding and subtracting a few small numbers. These models are widely used in medicine and criminal justice, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be calibrated, sparse, use small integer coefficients, and obey application-specific operational constraints. In this paper, we present a new machine learning approach to learn risk scores. We formulate the risk score problem as a mixed integer nonlinear program, and present a cutting plane algorithm for non-convex settings to efficiently recover its optimal solution. We improve our algorithm with specialized techniques to generate feasible solutions, narrow the optimality gap, and reduce data-related computation. Our approach can fit risk scores in a way that scales linearly in the number of samples, provides a certificate of optimality, and obeys real-world constraints without parameter tuning or post-processing. We benchmark the performance benefits of this approach through an extensive set of numerical experiments, comparing to risk scores built using heuristic approaches. We also discuss its practical benefits through a real-world application where we build a customized risk score for ICU seizure prediction in collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital.

When language models (LMs) are trained via reinforcement learning (RL) to generate natural language "reasoning chains", their performance improves on a variety of difficult question answering tasks. Today, almost all successful applications of RL for reasoning use binary reward functions that evaluate the correctness of LM outputs. Because such reward functions do not penalize guessing or low-confidence outputs, they often have the unintended side-effect of degrading calibration and increasing the rate at which LMs generate incorrect responses (or "hallucinate") in other problem domains. This paper describes RLCR (Reinforcement Learning with Calibration Rewards), an approach to training reasoning models that jointly improves accuracy and calibrated confidence estimation. During RLCR, LMs generate both predictions and numerical confidence estimates after reasoning. They are trained to optimize a reward function that augments a binary correctness score with a Brier score -- a scoring rule for confidence estimates that incentivizes calibrated prediction. We first prove that this reward function (or any analogous reward function that uses a bounded, proper scoring rule) yields models whose predictions are both accurate and well-calibrated. We next show that across diverse datasets, RLCR substantially improves calibration with no loss in accuracy, on both in-domain and out-of-domain evaluations -- outperforming both ordinary RL training and classifiers trained to assign post-hoc confidence scores. While ordinary RL hurts calibration, RLCR improves it. Finally, we demonstrate that verbalized confidence can be leveraged at test time to improve accuracy and calibration via confidence-weighted scaling methods. Our results show that explicitly optimizing for calibration can produce more generally reliable reasoning models.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are typically trained to predict in the forward direction of time. However, recent works have shown that prompting these models to look back and critique their own generations can produce useful feedback. Motivated by this, we explore the question of whether LLMs can be empowered to think (predict and score) backwards to provide unsupervised feedback that complements forward LLMs. Towards this, we introduce Time Reversed Language Models (TRLMs), which can score and generate queries when conditioned on responses, effectively functioning in the reverse direction of time. Further, to effectively infer in the response to query direction, we pre-train and fine-tune a language model (TRLM-Ba) in the reverse token order from scratch. We show empirically (and theoretically in a stylized setting) that time-reversed models can indeed complement forward model predictions when used to score the query given response for re-ranking multiple forward generations. We obtain up to 5\% improvement on the widely used AlpacaEval Leaderboard over the competent baseline of best-of-N re-ranking using self log-perplexity scores. We further show that TRLM scoring outperforms conventional forward scoring of response given query, resulting in significant gains in applications such as citation generation and passage retrieval. We next leverage the generative ability of TRLM to augment or provide unsupervised feedback to input safety filters of LLMs, demonstrating a drastic reduction in false negative rate with negligible impact on false positive rates against several attacks published on the popular JailbreakBench leaderboard.

This paper presents the results of the fourth edition of the Monocular Depth Estimation Challenge (MDEC), which focuses on zero-shot generalization to the SYNS-Patches benchmark, a dataset featuring challenging environments in both natural and indoor settings. In this edition, we revised the evaluation protocol to use least-squares alignment with two degrees of freedom to support disparity and affine-invariant predictions. We also revised the baselines and included popular off-the-shelf methods: Depth Anything v2 and Marigold. The challenge received a total of 24 submissions that outperformed the baselines on the test set; 10 of these included a report describing their approach, with most leading methods relying on affine-invariant predictions. The challenge winners improved the 3D F-Score over the previous edition's best result, raising it from 22.58% to 23.05%.

In this paper we present TruFor, a forensic framework that can be applied to a large variety of image manipulation methods, from classic cheapfakes to more recent manipulations based on deep learning. We rely on the extraction of both high-level and low-level traces through a transformer-based fusion architecture that combines the RGB image and a learned noise-sensitive fingerprint. The latter learns to embed the artifacts related to the camera internal and external processing by training only on real data in a self-supervised manner. Forgeries are detected as deviations from the expected regular pattern that characterizes each pristine image. Looking for anomalies makes the approach able to robustly detect a variety of local manipulations, ensuring generalization. In addition to a pixel-level localization map and a whole-image integrity score, our approach outputs a reliability map that highlights areas where localization predictions may be error-prone. This is particularly important in forensic applications in order to reduce false alarms and allow for a large scale analysis. Extensive experiments on several datasets show that our method is able to reliably detect and localize both cheapfakes and deepfakes manipulations outperforming state-of-the-art works. Code is publicly available at https://grip-unina.github.io/TruFor/

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) are increasingly being explored for applications in telemedicine, yet their ability to engage with diverse patient behaviors remains underexplored. We introduce 3MDBench (Medical Multimodal Multi-agent Dialogue Benchmark), an open-source evaluation framework designed to assess LLM-driven medical consultations. Unlike existing benchmarks, 3MDBench simulates real-world patient variability by incorporating four temperament-driven Patient Agents and an Assessor Agent that evaluates diagnostic accuracy and dialogue quality. The benchmark integrates textual and image-based patient data across 34 common diagnoses, mirroring real-world telemedicine interactions. Under different diagnostic strategies, we evaluate state-of-the-art LVLMs. Our findings demonstrate that incorporating dialogue improves the F1 score from 50.4 to 54.2 compared to non-dialogue settings, underscoring the value of context-driven, information-seeking questioning. Additionally, we demonstrate that multimodal inputs enhance diagnostic efficiency. Image-supported models outperform text-only counterparts by raising the diagnostic F1 score from 52.8 to 54.2 in a similar dialogue setting. Finally, we suggest an approach that improves the diagnostic F1-score to 70.3 by training the CNN model on the diagnosis prediction task and incorporating its top-3 predictions into the LVLM context. 3MDBench provides a reproducible and extendable evaluation framework for AI-driven medical assistants. It offers insights into how patient temperament, dialogue strategies, and multimodal reasoning influence diagnosis quality. By addressing real-world complexities in telemedicine, our benchmark paves the way for more empathetic, reliable, and context-aware AI-driven healthcare solutions. The source code of our benchmark is publicly available: https://github.com/univanxx/3mdbench

Answering complex queries on incomplete knowledge graphs is a challenging task where a model needs to answer complex logical queries in the presence of missing knowledge. Prior work in the literature has proposed to address this problem by designing architectures trained end-to-end for the complex query answering task with a reasoning process that is hard to interpret while requiring data and resource-intensive training. Other lines of research have proposed re-using simple neural link predictors to answer complex queries, reducing the amount of training data by orders of magnitude while providing interpretable answers. The neural link predictor used in such approaches is not explicitly optimised for the complex query answering task, implying that its scores are not calibrated to interact together. We propose to address these problems via CQD^{A}, a parameter-efficient score adaptation model optimised to re-calibrate neural link prediction scores for the complex query answering task. While the neural link predictor is frozen, the adaptation component -- which only increases the number of model parameters by 0.03% -- is trained on the downstream complex query answering task. Furthermore, the calibration component enables us to support reasoning over queries that include atomic negations, which was previously impossible with link predictors. In our experiments, CQD^{A} produces significantly more accurate results than current state-of-the-art methods, improving from 34.4 to 35.1 Mean Reciprocal Rank values averaged across all datasets and query types while using leq 30% of the available training query types. We further show that CQD^{A} is data-efficient, achieving competitive results with only 1% of the training complex queries, and robust in out-of-domain evaluations.

Recent studies have demonstrated the exceptional potentials of leveraging human preference datasets to refine text-to-image generative models, enhancing the alignment between generated images and textual prompts. Despite these advances, current human preference datasets are either prohibitively expensive to construct or suffer from a lack of diversity in preference dimensions, resulting in limited applicability for instruction tuning in open-source text-to-image generative models and hinder further exploration. To address these challenges and promote the alignment of generative models through instruction tuning, we leverage multimodal large language models to create VisionPrefer, a high-quality and fine-grained preference dataset that captures multiple preference aspects. We aggregate feedback from AI annotators across four aspects: prompt-following, aesthetic, fidelity, and harmlessness to construct VisionPrefer. To validate the effectiveness of VisionPrefer, we train a reward model VP-Score over VisionPrefer to guide the training of text-to-image generative models and the preference prediction accuracy of VP-Score is comparable to human annotators. Furthermore, we use two reinforcement learning methods to supervised fine-tune generative models to evaluate the performance of VisionPrefer, and extensive experimental results demonstrate that VisionPrefer significantly improves text-image alignment in compositional image generation across diverse aspects, e.g., aesthetic, and generalizes better than previous human-preference metrics across various image distributions. Moreover, VisionPrefer indicates that the integration of AI-generated synthetic data as a supervisory signal is a promising avenue for achieving improved alignment with human preferences in vision generative models.

Estimating the overall user experience (UX) on a device is a common challenge faced by manufacturers. Today, device makers primarily rely on microbenchmark scores, such as Geekbench, that stress test specific hardware components, such as CPU or RAM, but do not satisfactorily capture consumer workloads. System designers often rely on domain-specific heuristics and extensive testing of prototypes to reach a desired UX goal, and yet there is often a mismatch between the manufacturers' performance claims and the consumers' experience. We present our initial results on predicting real-life experience on laptops from their hardware specifications. We target web applications that run on Chromebooks (ChromeOS laptops) for a simple and fair aggregation of experience across applications and workloads. On 54 laptops, we track 9 UX metrics on common end-user workloads: web browsing, video playback and audio/video calls. We focus on a subset of high-level metrics exposed by the Chrome browser, that are part of the Web Vitals initiative for judging the UX on web applications. With a dataset of 100K UX data points, we train gradient boosted regression trees that predict the metric values from device specifications. Across our 9 metrics, we note a mean R^2 score (goodness-of-fit on our dataset) of 97.8% and a mean MAAPE (percentage error in prediction on unseen data) of 10.1%.

We show that classifiers trained with random region proposals achieve state-of-the-art Open-world Object Detection (OWOD): they can not only maintain the accuracy of the known objects (w/ training labels), but also considerably improve the recall of unknown ones (w/o training labels). Specifically, we propose RandBox, a Fast R-CNN based architecture trained on random proposals at each training iteration, surpassing existing Faster R-CNN and Transformer based OWOD. Its effectiveness stems from the following two benefits introduced by randomness. First, as the randomization is independent of the distribution of the limited known objects, the random proposals become the instrumental variable that prevents the training from being confounded by the known objects. Second, the unbiased training encourages more proposal explorations by using our proposed matching score that does not penalize the random proposals whose prediction scores do not match the known objects. On two benchmarks: Pascal-VOC/MS-COCO and LVIS, RandBox significantly outperforms the previous state-of-the-art in all metrics. We also detail the ablations on randomization and loss designs. Codes are available at https://github.com/scuwyh2000/RandBox.

We introduce a new visual-interactive tool: Explainable Labeling Assistant (XLabel) that takes an explainable machine learning approach to data labeling. The main component of XLabel is the Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM), a predictive model that can calculate the contribution of each input feature towards the final prediction. As a case study, we use XLabel to predict the labels of four non-communicable diseases (NCDs): diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and dyslipidemia. We demonstrate that EBM is an excellent choice of predictive model by comparing it against a rule-based and four other machine learning models. By performing 5-fold cross-validation on 427 medical records, EBM's prediction accuracy, precision, and F1-score are greater than 0.95 in all four NCDs. It performed as well as two black-box models and outperformed the other models in these metrics. In an additional experiment, when 40% of the records were intentionally mislabeled, EBM could recall the correct labels of more than 90% of these records.

This study provides an efficient approach for using text data to calculate patent-to-patent (p2p) technological similarity, and presents a hybrid framework for leveraging the resulting p2p similarity for applications such as semantic search and automated patent classification. We create embeddings using Sentence-BERT (SBERT) based on patent claims. We leverage SBERTs efficiency in creating embedding distance measures to map p2p similarity in large sets of patent data. We deploy our framework for classification with a simple Nearest Neighbors (KNN) model that predicts Cooperative Patent Classification (CPC) of a patent based on the class assignment of the K patents with the highest p2p similarity. We thereby validate that the p2p similarity captures their technological features in terms of CPC overlap, and at the same demonstrate the usefulness of this approach for automatic patent classification based on text data. Furthermore, the presented classification framework is simple and the results easy to interpret and evaluate by end-users. In the out-of-sample model validation, we are able to perform a multi-label prediction of all assigned CPC classes on the subclass (663) level on 1,492,294 patents with an accuracy of 54% and F1 score > 66%, which suggests that our model outperforms the current state-of-the-art in text-based multi-label and multi-class patent classification. We furthermore discuss the applicability of the presented framework for semantic IP search, patent landscaping, and technology intelligence. We finally point towards a future research agenda for leveraging multi-source patent embeddings, their appropriateness across applications, as well as to improve and validate patent embeddings by creating domain-expert curated Semantic Textual Similarity (STS) benchmark datasets.

Real-time assessment of near-term Air Traffic Controller (ATCO) task demand is a critical challenge in an increasingly crowded airspace, as existing complexity metrics often fail to capture nuanced operational drivers beyond simple aircraft counts. This work introduces an interpretable Graph Neural Network (GNN) framework to address this gap. Our attention-based model predicts the number of upcoming clearances, the instructions issued to aircraft by ATCOs, from interactions within static traffic scenarios. Crucially, we derive an interpretable, per-aircraft task demand score by systematically ablating aircraft and measuring the impact on the model's predictions. Our framework significantly outperforms an ATCO-inspired heuristic and is a more reliable estimator of scenario complexity than established baselines. The resulting tool can attribute task demand to specific aircraft, offering a new way to analyse and understand the drivers of complexity for applications in controller training and airspace redesign.

Due to the diversity of assessment requirements in various application scenarios for the IQA task, existing IQA methods struggle to directly adapt to these varied requirements after training. Thus, when facing new requirements, a typical approach is fine-tuning these models on datasets specifically created for those requirements. However, it is time-consuming to establish IQA datasets. In this work, we propose a Prompt-based IQA (PromptIQA) that can directly adapt to new requirements without fine-tuning after training. On one hand, it utilizes a short sequence of Image-Score Pairs (ISP) as prompts for targeted predictions, which significantly reduces the dependency on the data requirements. On the other hand, PromptIQA is trained on a mixed dataset with two proposed data augmentation strategies to learn diverse requirements, thus enabling it to effectively adapt to new requirements. Experiments indicate that the PromptIQA outperforms SOTA methods with higher performance and better generalization. The code will be available.

Recent progress in Graph Neural Networks has resulted in wide adoption by many applications, including recommendation systems. The reason for Graph Neural Networks' superiority over other approaches is that many problems in recommendation systems can be naturally modeled as graphs, where nodes can be either users or items and edges represent preference relationships. In current Graph Neural Network approaches, nodes are represented with a static vector learned at training time. This static vector might only be suitable to capture some of the nuances of users or items they define. To overcome this limitation, we propose using a recently proposed model inspired by category theory: Sheaf Neural Networks. Sheaf Neural Networks, and its connected Laplacian, can address the previous problem by associating every node (and edge) with a vector space instead than a single vector. The vector space representation is richer and allows picking the proper representation at inference time. This approach can be generalized for different related tasks on graphs and achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of F1-Score@N in collaborative filtering and Hits@20 in link prediction. For collaborative filtering, the approach is evaluated on the MovieLens 100K with a 5.1% improvement, on MovieLens 1M with a 5.4% improvement and on Book-Crossing with a 2.8% improvement, while for link prediction on the ogbl-ddi dataset with a 1.6% refinement with respect to the respective baselines.

Large language models (LLMs) are known for their exceptional performance across a range of natural language processing tasks, but their deployment comes at a high computational and financial cost. On the other hand, smaller language models (SLMs), which can be deployed on lower-cost edge devices, struggle to match the performance of their larger counterparts. This paper presents a novel hybrid inference approach that leverages the strengths of both model types while minimizing reliance on costly cloud-based LLMs. Unlike existing methods that route entire queries to either an SLM or a cloud LLM, our approach introduces a reward-based mechanism to dynamically determine the involvement of the cloud LLM during token generation. Specifically, each token predicted by the SLM is evaluated against a reward score, and only when this score falls below a certain threshold is the cloud LLM consulted for assistance in the next token prediction. This method not only reduces the traffic to the cloud LLM, thereby lowering costs, but also allows for flexible control over response quality depending on the reward score threshold. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach significantly reduces cloud LLM usage with minimal impact on overall response quality, offering a cost-effective solution for deploying high-performance language models

Vision-language navigation (VLN), which entails an agent to navigate 3D environments following human instructions, has shown great advances. However, current agents are built upon panoramic observations, which hinders their ability to perceive 3D scene geometry and easily leads to ambiguous selection of panoramic view. To address these limitations, we present a BEV Scene Graph (BSG), which leverages multi-step BEV representations to encode scene layouts and geometric cues of indoor environment under the supervision of 3D detection. During navigation, BSG builds a local BEV representation at each step and maintains a BEV-based global scene map, which stores and organizes all the online collected local BEV representations according to their topological relations. Based on BSG, the agent predicts a local BEV grid-level decision score and a global graph-level decision score, combined with a sub-view selection score on panoramic views, for more accurate action prediction. Our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on REVERIE, R2R, and R4R, showing the potential of BEV perception in VLN.

We introduce CMPhysBench, designed to assess the proficiency of Large Language Models (LLMs) in Condensed Matter Physics, as a novel Benchmark. CMPhysBench is composed of more than 520 graduate-level meticulously curated questions covering both representative subfields and foundational theoretical frameworks of condensed matter physics, such as magnetism, superconductivity, strongly correlated systems, etc. To ensure a deep understanding of the problem-solving process,we focus exclusively on calculation problems, requiring LLMs to independently generate comprehensive solutions. Meanwhile, leveraging tree-based representations of expressions, we introduce the Scalable Expression Edit Distance (SEED) score, which provides fine-grained (non-binary) partial credit and yields a more accurate assessment of similarity between prediction and ground-truth. Our results show that even the best models, Grok-4, reach only 36 average SEED score and 28% accuracy on CMPhysBench, underscoring a significant capability gap, especially for this practical and frontier domain relative to traditional physics. The code anddataset are publicly available at https://github.com/CMPhysBench/CMPhysBench.

In recent years, graph representation learning has undergone a paradigm shift, driven by the emergence and proliferation of graph neural networks (GNNs) and their heterogeneous counterparts. Heterogeneous GNNs have shown remarkable success in extracting low-dimensional embeddings from complex graphs that encompass diverse entity types and relationships. While meta-path-based techniques have long been recognized for their ability to capture semantic affinities among nodes, their dependence on manual specification poses a significant limitation. In contrast, matrix-focused methods accelerate processing by utilizing structural cues but often overlook contextual richness. In this paper, we challenge the current paradigm by introducing ontology as a fundamental semantic primitive within complex graphs. Our goal is to integrate the strengths of both matrix-centric and meta-path-based approaches into a unified framework. We propose perturbation Ontology-based Graph Attention Networks (POGAT), a novel methodology that combines ontology subgraphs with an advanced self-supervised learning paradigm to achieve a deep contextual understanding. The core innovation of POGAT lies in our enhanced homogeneous perturbing scheme designed to generate rigorous negative samples, encouraging the model to explore minimal contextual features more thoroughly. Through extensive empirical evaluations, we demonstrate that POGAT significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving a groundbreaking improvement of up to 10.78\% in F1-score for the critical task of link prediction and 12.01\% in Micro-F1 for the critical task of node classification.

Word frequency is a key variable in psycholinguistics, useful for modeling human familiarity with words even in the era of large language models (LLMs). Frequency in film subtitles has proved to be a particularly good approximation of everyday language exposure. For many languages, however, film subtitles are not easily available, or are overwhelmingly translated from English. We demonstrate that frequencies extracted from carefully processed YouTube subtitles provide an approximation comparable to, and often better than, the best currently available resources. Moreover, they are available for languages for which a high-quality subtitle or speech corpus does not exist. We use YouTube subtitles to construct frequency norms for five diverse languages, Chinese, English, Indonesian, Japanese, and Spanish, and evaluate their correlation with lexical decision time, word familiarity, and lexical complexity. In addition to being strongly correlated with two psycholinguistic variables, a simple linear regression on the new frequencies achieves a new high score on a lexical complexity prediction task in English and Japanese, surpassing both models trained on film subtitle frequencies and the LLM GPT-4. Our code, the frequency lists, fastText word embeddings, and statistical language models are freely available at https://github.com/naist-nlp/tubelex.

We propose a novel task for generating 3D dance movements that simultaneously incorporate both text and music modalities. Unlike existing works that generate dance movements using a single modality such as music, our goal is to produce richer dance movements guided by the instructive information provided by the text. However, the lack of paired motion data with both music and text modalities limits the ability to generate dance movements that integrate both. To alleviate this challenge, we propose to utilize a 3D human motion VQ-VAE to project the motions of the two datasets into a latent space consisting of quantized vectors, which effectively mix the motion tokens from the two datasets with different distributions for training. Additionally, we propose a cross-modal transformer to integrate text instructions into motion generation architecture for generating 3D dance movements without degrading the performance of music-conditioned dance generation. To better evaluate the quality of the generated motion, we introduce two novel metrics, namely Motion Prediction Distance (MPD) and Freezing Score, to measure the coherence and freezing percentage of the generated motion. Extensive experiments show that our approach can generate realistic and coherent dance movements conditioned on both text and music while maintaining comparable performance with the two single modalities. Code will be available at: https://garfield-kh.github.io/TM2D/.

Abugida refers to a phonogram writing system where each syllable is represented using a single consonant or typographic ligature, along with a default vowel or optional diacritic(s) to denote other vowels. However, texting in these languages has some unique challenges in spite of the advent of devices with soft keyboard supporting custom key layouts. The number of characters in these languages is large enough to require characters to be spread over multiple views in the layout. Having to switch between views many times to type a single word hinders the natural thought process. This prevents popular usage of native keyboard layouts. On the other hand, supporting romanized scripts (native words transcribed using Latin characters) with language model based suggestions is also set back by the lack of uniform romanization rules. To this end, we propose a disambiguation algorithm and showcase its usefulness in two novel mutually non-exclusive input methods for languages natively using the abugida writing system: (a) disambiguation of ambiguous input for abugida scripts, and (b) disambiguation of word variants in romanized scripts. We benchmark these approaches using public datasets, and show an improvement in typing speed by 19.49%, 25.13%, and 14.89%, in Hindi, Bengali, and Thai, respectively, using Ambiguous Input, owing to the human ease of locating keys combined with the efficiency of our inference method. Our Word Variant Disambiguation (WDA) maps valid variants of romanized words, previously treated as Out-of-Vocab, to a vocabulary of 100k words with high accuracy, leading to an increase in Error Correction F1 score by 10.03% and Next Word Prediction (NWP) by 62.50% on average.

Books are typically segmented into chapters and sections, representing coherent subnarratives and topics. We investigate the task of predicting chapter boundaries, as a proxy for the general task of segmenting long texts. We build a Project Gutenberg chapter segmentation data set of 9,126 English novels, using a hybrid approach combining neural inference and rule matching to recognize chapter title headers in books, achieving an F1-score of 0.77 on this task. Using this annotated data as ground truth after removing structural cues, we present cut-based and neural methods for chapter segmentation, achieving an F1-score of 0.453 on the challenging task of exact break prediction over book-length documents. Finally, we reveal interesting historical trends in the chapter structure of novels.

Pairwise pose estimation from images with little or no overlap is an open challenge in computer vision. Existing methods, even those trained on large-scale datasets, struggle in these scenarios due to the lack of identifiable correspondences or visual overlap. Inspired by the human ability to infer spatial relationships from diverse scenes, we propose a novel approach, InterPose, that leverages the rich priors encoded within pre-trained generative video models. We propose to use a video model to hallucinate intermediate frames between two input images, effectively creating a dense, visual transition, which significantly simplifies the problem of pose estimation. Since current video models can still produce implausible motion or inconsistent geometry, we introduce a self-consistency score that evaluates the consistency of pose predictions from sampled videos. We demonstrate that our approach generalizes among three state-of-the-art video models and show consistent improvements over the state-of-the-art DUSt3R on four diverse datasets encompassing indoor, outdoor, and object-centric scenes. Our findings suggest a promising avenue for improving pose estimation models by leveraging large generative models trained on vast amounts of video data, which is more readily available than 3D data. See our project page for results: https://inter-pose.github.io/.

Synthetic data (SIM) drawn from simulators have emerged as a popular alternative for training models where acquiring annotated real-world images is difficult. However, transferring models trained on synthetic images to real-world applications can be challenging due to appearance disparities. A commonly employed solution to counter this SIM2REAL gap is unsupervised domain adaptation, where models are trained using labeled SIM data and unlabeled REAL data. Mispredictions made by such SIM2REAL adapted models are often associated with miscalibration - stemming from overconfident predictions on real data. In this paper, we introduce AUGCAL, a simple training-time patch for unsupervised adaptation that improves SIM2REAL adapted models by - (1) reducing overall miscalibration, (2) reducing overconfidence in incorrect predictions and (3) improving confidence score reliability by better guiding misclassification detection - all while retaining or improving SIM2REAL performance. Given a base SIM2REAL adaptation algorithm, at training time, AUGCAL involves replacing vanilla SIM images with strongly augmented views (AUG intervention) and additionally optimizing for a training time calibration loss on augmented SIM predictions (CAL intervention). We motivate AUGCAL using a brief analytical justification of how to reduce miscalibration on unlabeled REAL data. Through our experiments, we empirically show the efficacy of AUGCAL across multiple adaptation methods, backbones, tasks and shifts.

Task-oriented dialog systems need to know when a query falls outside their range of supported intents, but current text classification corpora only define label sets that cover every example. We introduce a new dataset that includes queries that are out-of-scope---i.e., queries that do not fall into any of the system's supported intents. This poses a new challenge because models cannot assume that every query at inference time belongs to a system-supported intent class. Our dataset also covers 150 intent classes over 10 domains, capturing the breadth that a production task-oriented agent must handle. We evaluate a range of benchmark classifiers on our dataset along with several different out-of-scope identification schemes. We find that while the classifiers perform well on in-scope intent classification, they struggle to identify out-of-scope queries. Our dataset and evaluation fill an important gap in the field, offering a way of more rigorously and realistically benchmarking text classification in task-driven dialog systems.

Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful tool rivaling GANs in generating high-quality samples with improved fidelity, flexibility, and robustness. A key component of these models is to learn the score function through score matching. Despite empirical success on various tasks, it remains unclear whether gradient-based algorithms can learn the score function with a provable accuracy. As a first step toward answering this question, this paper establishes a mathematical framework for analyzing score estimation using neural networks trained by gradient descent. Our analysis covers both the optimization and the generalization aspects of the learning procedure. In particular, we propose a parametric form to formulate the denoising score-matching problem as a regression with noisy labels. Compared to the standard supervised learning setup, the score-matching problem introduces distinct challenges, including unbounded input, vector-valued output, and an additional time variable, preventing existing techniques from being applied directly. In this paper, we show that with proper designs, the evolution of neural networks during training can be accurately modeled by a series of kernel regression tasks. Furthermore, by applying an early-stopping rule for gradient descent and leveraging recent developments in neural tangent kernels, we establish the first generalization error (sample complexity) bounds for learning the score function with neural networks, despite the presence of noise in the observations. Our analysis is grounded in a novel parametric form of the neural network and an innovative connection between score matching and regression analysis, facilitating the application of advanced statistical and optimization techniques.

Score-based generative models (SGMs) sample from a target distribution by iteratively transforming noise using the score function of the perturbed target. For any finite training set, this score function can be evaluated in closed form, but the resulting SGM memorizes its training data and does not generate novel samples. In practice, one approximates the score by training a neural network via score-matching. The error in this approximation promotes generalization, but neural SGMs are costly to train and sample, and the effective regularization this error provides is not well-understood theoretically. In this work, we instead explicitly smooth the closed-form score to obtain an SGM that generates novel samples without training. We analyze our model and propose an efficient nearest-neighbor-based estimator of its score function. Using this estimator, our method achieves competitive sampling times while running on consumer-grade CPUs.

Predicting case outcomes is useful but still an extremely hard task for attorneys and other Law professionals. It is not easy to search case information to extract valuable information as this requires dealing with huge data sets and their complexity. For instance, the complexity of Brazil legal system along with the high litigation rates makes this problem even harder. This paper introduces an approach for predicting Brazilian court decisions which is also able to predict whether the decision will be unanimous. We developed a working prototype which performs 79% of accuracy (F1-score) on a data set composed of 4,043 cases from a Brazilian court. To our knowledge, this is the first study to forecast judge decisions in Brazil.

Within the scope of natural language processing, the domain of multi-label text classification is uniquely challenging due to its expansive and uneven label distribution. The complexity deepens due to the demand for an extensive set of annotated data for training an advanced deep learning model, especially in specialized fields where the labeling task can be labor-intensive and often requires domain-specific knowledge. Addressing these challenges, our study introduces a novel deep active learning strategy, capitalizing on the Beta family of proper scoring rules within the Expected Loss Reduction framework. It computes the expected increase in scores using the Beta Scoring Rules, which are then transformed into sample vector representations. These vector representations guide the diverse selection of informative samples, directly linking this process to the model's expected proper score. Comprehensive evaluations across both synthetic and real datasets reveal our method's capability to often outperform established acquisition techniques in multi-label text classification, presenting encouraging outcomes across various architectural and dataset scenarios.

Docking is a crucial component in drug discovery aimed at predicting the binding conformation and affinity between small molecules and target proteins. ML-based docking has recently emerged as a prominent approach, outpacing traditional methods like DOCK and AutoDock Vina in handling the growing scale and complexity of molecular libraries. However, the availability of comprehensive and user-friendly datasets for training and benchmarking ML-based docking algorithms remains limited. We introduce Smiles2Dock, an open large-scale multi-task dataset for molecular docking. We created a framework combining P2Rank and AutoDock Vina to dock 1.7 million ligands from the ChEMBL database against 15 AlphaFold proteins, giving us more than 25 million protein-ligand binding scores. The dataset leverages a wide range of high-accuracy AlphaFold protein models, encompasses a diverse set of biologically relevant compounds and enables researchers to benchmark all major approaches for ML-based docking such as Graph, Transformer and CNN-based methods. We also introduce a novel Transformer-based architecture for docking scores prediction and set it as an initial benchmark for our dataset. Our dataset and code are publicly available to support the development of novel ML-based methods for molecular docking to advance scientific research in this field.

In this study, we approached the Hit Song Prediction problem, which aims to predict which songs will become Billboard hits. We gathered a dataset of nearly 18500 hit and non-hit songs and extracted their audio features using the Spotify Web API. We test four machine-learning models on our dataset. We were able to predict the Billboard success of a song with approximately 86\% accuracy. The most succesful algorithms were Random Forest and Support Vector Machine.

Fine-tuning of pre-trained transformer models has become the standard approach for solving common NLP tasks. Most of the existing approaches rely on a randomly initialized classifier on top of such networks. We argue that this fine-tuning procedure is sub-optimal as the pre-trained model has no prior on the specific classifier labels, while it might have already learned an intrinsic textual representation of the task. In this paper, we introduce a new scoring method that casts a plausibility ranking task in a full-text format and leverages the masked language modeling head tuned during the pre-training phase. We study commonsense reasoning tasks where the model must rank a set of hypotheses given a premise, focusing on the COPA, Swag, HellaSwag and CommonsenseQA datasets. By exploiting our scoring method without fine-tuning, we are able to produce strong baselines (e.g. 80% test accuracy on COPA) that are comparable to supervised approaches. Moreover, when fine-tuning directly on the proposed scoring function, we show that our method provides a much more stable training phase across random restarts (e.g times 10 standard deviation reduction on COPA test accuracy) and requires less annotated data than the standard classifier approach to reach equivalent performances.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

The growing popularity of data mining catalyses the researchers to explore various exciting aspects of education. Early prediction of student performance is an emerging area among them. The researchers have used various predictors in performance modelling studies. Although prior cognition can affect student performance, establishing their relationship is still an open research challenge. Quantifying the knowledge from readily available data is the major challenge here. We have proposed a semantic approach for this purpose. Association mining on nearly 0.35 million observations establishes that prior cognition impacts the student performance. The proposed approach of measuring domain knowledge can help the early performance modelling studies to use it as a predictor.

This study presents a hybrid framework for predicting movie success. The framework integrates multi-task learning (MTL), GPT-based sentiment analysis, and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) propagation modeling. The study examines limitations in existing approaches. It models static production attributes, information dissemination, and audience sentiment at the same time. The framework uses 5,840 films from 2004 to 2024 and approximate 300,000 user reviews. It shows predictive performance with classification accuracy of 0.964 and regression metrics of MAE 0.388. Ablation analysis indicates component interactions. Selective feature combinations perform better than the comprehensive model. This result questions assumptions about feature integration. The model shows virality patterns between successful and unsuccessful films. Innovations include epidemiological modeling for information diffusion, multidimensional sentiment features from GPT-based analysis, and a shared representation architecture that optimizes multiple success metrics. The framework provides applications in the film production lifecycle. It also contributes to understanding how audience engagement leads to commercial outcomes.

We present a new methodology for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) images by utilizing norms of the score estimates at multiple noise scales. A score is defined to be the gradient of the log density with respect to the input data. Our methodology is completely unsupervised and follows a straight forward training scheme. First, we train a deep network to estimate scores for levels of noise. Once trained, we calculate the noisy score estimates for N in-distribution samples and take the L2-norms across the input dimensions (resulting in an NxL matrix). Then we train an auxiliary model (such as a Gaussian Mixture Model) to learn the in-distribution spatial regions in this L-dimensional space. This auxiliary model can now be used to identify points that reside outside the learned space. Despite its simplicity, our experiments show that this methodology significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art in detecting out-of-distribution images. For example, our method can effectively separate CIFAR-10 (inlier) and SVHN (OOD) images, a setting which has been previously shown to be difficult for deep likelihood models.

By learning the gradient of smoothed data distributions, diffusion models can iteratively generate samples from complex distributions. The learned score function enables their generalization capabilities, but how the learned score relates to the score of the underlying data manifold remains largely unclear. Here, we aim to elucidate this relationship by comparing learned neural scores to the scores of two kinds of analytically tractable distributions: Gaussians and Gaussian mixtures. The simplicity of the Gaussian model makes it theoretically attractive, and we show that it admits a closed-form solution and predicts many qualitative aspects of sample generation dynamics. We claim that the learned neural score is dominated by its linear (Gaussian) approximation for moderate to high noise scales, and supply both theoretical and empirical arguments to support this claim. Moreover, the Gaussian approximation empirically works for a larger range of noise scales than naive theory suggests it should, and is preferentially learned early in training. At smaller noise scales, we observe that learned scores are better described by a coarse-grained (Gaussian mixture) approximation of training data than by the score of the training distribution, a finding consistent with generalization. Our findings enable us to precisely predict the initial phase of trained models' sampling trajectories through their Gaussian approximations. We show that this allows the skipping of the first 15-30% of sampling steps while maintaining high sample quality (with a near state-of-the-art FID score of 1.93 on CIFAR-10 unconditional generation). This forms the foundation of a novel hybrid sampling method, termed analytical teleportation, which can seamlessly integrate with and accelerate existing samplers, including DPM-Solver-v3 and UniPC. Our findings suggest ways to improve the design and training of diffusion models.

To assist human review process, we build a novel ReviewRobot to automatically assign a review score and write comments for multiple categories such as novelty and meaningful comparison. A good review needs to be knowledgeable, namely that the comments should be constructive and informative to help improve the paper; and explainable by providing detailed evidence. ReviewRobot achieves these goals via three steps: (1) We perform domain-specific Information Extraction to construct a knowledge graph (KG) from the target paper under review, a related work KG from the papers cited by the target paper, and a background KG from a large collection of previous papers in the domain. (2) By comparing these three KGs, we predict a review score and detailed structured knowledge as evidence for each review category. (3) We carefully select and generalize human review sentences into templates, and apply these templates to transform the review scores and evidence into natural language comments. Experimental results show that our review score predictor reaches 71.4%-100% accuracy. Human assessment by domain experts shows that 41.7%-70.5% of the comments generated by ReviewRobot are valid and constructive, and better than human-written ones for 20% of the time. Thus, ReviewRobot can serve as an assistant for paper reviewers, program chairs and authors.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

Automated scoring engines are increasingly being used to score the free-form text responses that students give to questions. Such engines are not designed to appropriately deal with responses that a human reader would find alarming such as those that indicate an intention to self-harm or harm others, responses that allude to drug abuse or sexual abuse or any response that would elicit concern for the student writing the response. Our neural network models have been designed to help identify these anomalous responses from a large collection of typical responses that students give. The responses identified by the neural network can be assessed for urgency, severity, and validity more quickly by a team of reviewers than otherwise possible. Given the anomalous nature of these types of responses, our goal is to maximize the chance of flagging these responses for review given the constraint that only a fixed percentage of responses can viably be assessed by a team of reviewers.

We propose a new score-based model with one-step sampling. Previously, score-based models were burdened with heavy computations due to iterative sampling. For substituting the iterative process, we train a standalone generator to compress all the time steps with the gradient backpropagated from the score network. In order to produce meaningful gradients for the generator, the score network is trained to simultaneously match the real data distribution and mismatch the fake data distribution. This model has the following advantages: 1) For sampling, it generates a fake image with only one step forward. 2) For training, it only needs 10 diffusion steps.3) Compared with consistency model, it is free of the ill-posed problem caused by consistency loss. On the popular CIFAR-10 dataset, our model outperforms Consistency Model and Denoising Score Matching, which demonstrates the potential of the framework. We further provide more examples on the MINIST and LSUN datasets. The code is available on GitHub.

Curriculum Learning is the presentation of samples to the machine learning model in a meaningful order instead of a random order. The main challenge of Curriculum Learning is determining how to rank these samples. The ranking of the samples is expressed by the scoring function. In this study, scoring functions were compared using data set features, using the model to be trained, and using another model and their ensemble versions. Experiments were performed for 4 images and 4 text datasets. No significant differences were found between scoring functions for text datasets, but significant improvements were obtained in scoring functions created using transfer learning compared to classical model training and other scoring functions for image datasets. It shows that different new scoring functions are waiting to be found for text classification tasks.

Review websites, such as TripAdvisor and Yelp, allow users to post online reviews for various businesses, products and services, and have been recently shown to have a significant influence on consumer shopping behaviour. An online review typically consists of free-form text and a star rating out of 5. The problem of predicting a user's star rating for a product, given the user's text review for that product, is called Review Rating Prediction and has lately become a popular, albeit hard, problem in machine learning. In this paper, we treat Review Rating Prediction as a multi-class classification problem, and build sixteen different prediction models by combining four feature extraction methods, (i) unigrams, (ii) bigrams, (iii) trigrams and (iv) Latent Semantic Indexing, with four machine learning algorithms, (i) logistic regression, (ii) Naive Bayes classification, (iii) perceptrons, and (iv) linear Support Vector Classification. We analyse the performance of each of these sixteen models to come up with the best model for predicting the ratings from reviews. We use the dataset provided by Yelp for training and testing the models.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

In this paper we introduce the SCoRe (Submodular Combinatorial Representation Learning) framework, a novel approach in representation learning that addresses inter-class bias and intra-class variance. SCoRe provides a new combinatorial viewpoint to representation learning, by introducing a family of loss functions based on set-based submodular information measures. We develop two novel combinatorial formulations for loss functions, using the Total Information and Total Correlation, that naturally minimize intra-class variance and inter-class bias. Several commonly used metric/contrastive learning loss functions like supervised contrastive loss, orthogonal projection loss, and N-pairs loss, are all instances of SCoRe, thereby underlining the versatility and applicability of SCoRe in a broad spectrum of learning scenarios. Novel objectives in SCoRe naturally model class-imbalance with up to 7.6\% improvement in classification on CIFAR-10-LT, CIFAR-100-LT, MedMNIST, 2.1% on ImageNet-LT, and 19.4% in object detection on IDD and LVIS (v1.0), demonstrating its effectiveness over existing approaches.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

We give an improved theoretical analysis of score-based generative modeling. Under a score estimate with small L^2 error (averaged across timesteps), we provide efficient convergence guarantees for any data distribution with second-order moment, by either employing early stopping or assuming smoothness condition on the score function of the data distribution. Our result does not rely on any log-concavity or functional inequality assumption and has a logarithmic dependence on the smoothness. In particular, we show that under only a finite second moment condition, approximating the following in reverse KL divergence in epsilon-accuracy can be done in tilde Oleft(d log (1/delta){epsilon}right) steps: 1) the variance-delta Gaussian perturbation of any data distribution; 2) data distributions with 1/delta-smooth score functions. Our analysis also provides a quantitative comparison between different discrete approximations and may guide the choice of discretization points in practice.

Estimating the performance difficulty of a musical score is crucial in music education for adequately designing the learning curriculum of the students. Although the Music Information Retrieval community has recently shown interest in this task, existing approaches mainly use machine-readable scores, leaving the broader case of sheet music images unaddressed. Based on previous works involving sheet music images, we use a mid-level representation, bootleg score, describing notehead positions relative to staff lines coupled with a transformer model. This architecture is adapted to our task by introducing an encoding scheme that reduces the encoded sequence length to one-eighth of the original size. In terms of evaluation, we consider five datasets -- more than 7500 scores with up to 9 difficulty levels -- , two of them particularly compiled for this work. The results obtained when pretraining the scheme on the IMSLP corpus and fine-tuning it on the considered datasets prove the proposal's validity, achieving the best-performing model with a balanced accuracy of 40.34\% and a mean square error of 1.33. Finally, we provide access to our code, data, and models for transparency and reproducibility.

We present the contribution of the Unbabel team to the WMT 2020 Shared Task on Metrics. We intend to participate on the segment-level, document-level and system-level tracks on all language pairs, as well as the 'QE as a Metric' track. Accordingly, we illustrate results of our models in these tracks with reference to test sets from the previous year. Our submissions build upon the recently proposed COMET framework: We train several estimator models to regress on different human-generated quality scores and a novel ranking model trained on relative ranks obtained from Direct Assessments. We also propose a simple technique for converting segment-level predictions into a document-level score. Overall, our systems achieve strong results for all language pairs on previous test sets and in many cases set a new state-of-the-art.

Existing text scoring methods require a large corpus, struggle with short texts, or require hand-labeled data. We develop a text scoring framework that leverages generative large language models (LLMs) to (1) set texts against the backdrop of information from the near-totality of the web and digitized media, and (2) effectively transform pairwise text comparisons from a reasoning problem to a pattern recognition task. Our approach, concept-guided chain-of-thought (CGCoT), utilizes a chain of researcher-designed prompts with an LLM to generate a concept-specific breakdown for each text, akin to guidance provided to human coders. We then pairwise compare breakdowns using an LLM and aggregate answers into a score using a probability model. We apply this approach to better understand speech reflecting aversion to specific political parties on Twitter, a topic that has commanded increasing interest because of its potential contributions to democratic backsliding. We achieve stronger correlations with human judgments than widely used unsupervised text scoring methods like Wordfish. In a supervised setting, besides a small pilot dataset to develop CGCoT prompts, our measures require no additional hand-labeled data and produce predictions on par with RoBERTa-Large fine-tuned on thousands of hand-labeled tweets. This project showcases the potential of combining human expertise and LLMs for scoring tasks.

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) aim to determine whether a specific sample was used to train a predictive model. Knowing this may indeed lead to a privacy breach. Most MIAs, however, make use of the model's prediction scores - the probability of each output given some input - following the intuition that the trained model tends to behave differently on its training data. We argue that this is a fallacy for many modern deep network architectures. Consequently, MIAs will miserably fail since overconfidence leads to high false-positive rates not only on known domains but also on out-of-distribution data and implicitly acts as a defense against MIAs. Specifically, using generative adversarial networks, we are able to produce a potentially infinite number of samples falsely classified as part of the training data. In other words, the threat of MIAs is overestimated, and less information is leaked than previously assumed. Moreover, there is actually a trade-off between the overconfidence of models and their susceptibility to MIAs: the more classifiers know when they do not know, making low confidence predictions, the more they reveal the training data.

Large Language Model agents excel at solving complex tasks through iterative reasoning and tool use, but typically depend on ultra-large, costly backbones. Existing distillation approaches train smaller students to imitate full teacher trajectories, yet reasoning and knowledge gaps between the teacher and student often lead to compounding errors. We propose SCoRe, a student-centered framework in which the student generates trajectories and the teacher intervenes only at the first critical error, producing training data matched to the student's ability and exposing specific weaknesses. The student is first fine-tuned on corrected trajectories. Subsequently, short-horizon reinforcement learning starts from the verified prefix before the first critical error, with target rewards assigned at that step. This design encourages autonomous problem-solving beyond imitation and improves training stability. Particularly, on 12 challenging benchmarks, a 7B-parameter student distilled with SCoRe matches the agentic performance of a 72B-parameter teacher.

Deep-learning based Automatic Essay Scoring (AES) systems are being actively used by states and language testing agencies alike to evaluate millions of candidates for life-changing decisions ranging from college applications to visa approvals. However, little research has been put to understand and interpret the black-box nature of deep-learning based scoring algorithms. Previous studies indicate that scoring models can be easily fooled. In this paper, we explore the reason behind their surprising adversarial brittleness. We utilize recent advances in interpretability to find the extent to which features such as coherence, content, vocabulary, and relevance are important for automated scoring mechanisms. We use this to investigate the oversensitivity i.e., large change in output score with a little change in input essay content) and overstability i.e., little change in output scores with large changes in input essay content) of AES. Our results indicate that autoscoring models, despite getting trained as "end-to-end" models with rich contextual embeddings such as BERT, behave like bag-of-words models. A few words determine the essay score without the requirement of any context making the model largely overstable. This is in stark contrast to recent probing studies on pre-trained representation learning models, which show that rich linguistic features such as parts-of-speech and morphology are encoded by them. Further, we also find that the models have learnt dataset biases, making them oversensitive. To deal with these issues, we propose detection-based protection models that can detect oversensitivity and overstability causing samples with high accuracies. We find that our proposed models are able to detect unusual attribution patterns and flag adversarial samples successfully.

In this paper, we present SCOREQ, a novel approach for speech quality prediction. SCOREQ is a triplet loss function for contrastive regression that addresses the domain generalisation shortcoming exhibited by state of the art no-reference speech quality metrics. In the paper we: (i) illustrate the problem of L2 loss training failing at capturing the continuous nature of the mean opinion score (MOS) labels; (ii) demonstrate the lack of generalisation through a benchmarking evaluation across several speech domains; (iii) outline our approach and explore the impact of the architectural design decisions through incremental evaluation; (iv) evaluate the final model against state of the art models for a wide variety of data and domains. The results show that the lack of generalisation observed in state of the art speech quality metrics is addressed by SCOREQ. We conclude that using a triplet loss function for contrastive regression improves generalisation for speech quality prediction models but also has potential utility across a wide range of applications using regression-based predictive models.

Recent years have witnessed a surge in the number of large language models (LLMs), yet efficiently managing and utilizing these vast resources remains a significant challenge. In this work, we explore how to learn compact representations of LLM abilities that can facilitate downstream tasks, such as model routing and performance prediction on new benchmarks. We frame this problem as estimating the probability that a given model will correctly answer a specific query. Inspired by the item response theory (IRT) in psychometrics, we model this probability as a function of three key factors: (i) the model's multi-skill ability vector, (2) the query's discrimination vector that separates models of differing skills, and (3) the query's difficulty scalar. To learn these parameters jointly, we introduce a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) network that couples model- and query-level embeddings. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach leads to state-of-the-art performance in both model routing and benchmark accuracy prediction. Moreover, analysis validates that the learned parameters encode meaningful, interpretable information about model capabilities and query characteristics.

We present PREMISE (PREdict with Matching ScorEs), a new architecture for the matching-based learning in the multimodal fields for the multimodal review helpfulness (MRHP) task. Distinct to previous fusion-based methods which obtains multimodal representations via cross-modal attention for downstream tasks, PREMISE computes the multi-scale and multi-field representations, filters duplicated semantics, and then obtained a set of matching scores as feature vectors for the downstream recommendation task. This new architecture significantly boosts the performance for such multimodal tasks whose context matching content are highly correlated to the targets of that task, compared to the state-of-the-art fusion-based methods. Experimental results on two publicly available datasets show that PREMISE achieves promising performance with less computational cost.

Modern ML systems ingest data aggregated from diverse sources, such as synthetic, human-annotated, and live customer traffic. Understanding which examples are important to the performance of a learning algorithm is crucial for efficient model training. Recently, a growing body of literature has given rise to various "influence scores," which use training artifacts such as model confidence or checkpointed gradients to identify important subsets of data. However, these methods have primarily been developed in computer vision settings, and it remains unclear how well they generalize to language-based tasks using pretrained models. In this paper, we explore the applicability of influence scores in language classification tasks. We evaluate a diverse subset of these scores on the SNLI dataset by quantifying accuracy changes in response to pruning training data through random and influence-score-based sampling. We then stress-test one of the scores -- "variance of gradients" (VoG) from Agarwal et al. (2022) -- in an NLU model stack that was exposed to dynamic user speech patterns in a voice assistant type of setting. Our experiments demonstrate that in many cases, encoder-based language models can be finetuned on roughly 50% of the original data without degradation in performance metrics. Along the way, we summarize lessons learned from applying out-of-the-box implementations of influence scores, quantify the effects of noisy and class-imbalanced data, and offer recommendations on score-based sampling for better accuracy and training efficiency.

In dense retrieval, effective training hinges on selecting high quality hard negatives while avoiding false negatives. Recent methods apply heuristics based on positive document scores to identify hard negatives, improving both performance and interpretability. However, these global, example agnostic strategies often miss instance specific false negatives. To address this, we propose a learnable adapter module that monitors Bi-Encoder representations to estimate the likelihood that a hard negative is actually a false negative. This probability is modeled dynamically and contextually, enabling fine-grained, query specific judgments. The predicted scores are used in two downstream components: (1) resampling, where negatives are reweighted during training, and (2) reranking, where top-k retrieved documents are reordered at inference. Empirical results on standard benchmarks show that our adapter-enhanced framework consistently outperforms strong Bi-Encoder baselines, underscoring the benefit of explicit false negative modeling in dense retrieval.

Current question-answering benchmarks predominantly focus on accuracy in realizable prediction tasks. Conditioned on a question and answer-key, does the most likely token match the ground truth? Such benchmarks necessarily fail to evaluate LLMs' ability to quantify ground-truth outcome uncertainty. In this work, we focus on the use of LLMs as risk scores for unrealizable prediction tasks. We introduce folktexts, a software package to systematically generate risk scores using LLMs, and evaluate them against US Census data products. A flexible API enables the use of different prompting schemes, local or web-hosted models, and diverse census columns that can be used to compose custom prediction tasks. We evaluate 17 recent LLMs across five proposed benchmark tasks. We find that zero-shot risk scores produced by multiple-choice question-answering have high predictive signal but are widely miscalibrated. Base models consistently overestimate outcome uncertainty, while instruction-tuned models underestimate uncertainty and produce over-confident risk scores. In fact, instruction-tuning polarizes answer distribution regardless of true underlying data uncertainty. This reveals a general inability of instruction-tuned LLMs to express data uncertainty using multiple-choice answers. A separate experiment using verbalized chat-style risk queries yields substantially improved calibration across instruction-tuned models. These differences in ability to quantify data uncertainty cannot be revealed in realizable settings, and highlight a blind-spot in the current evaluation ecosystem that folktexts covers.

Legal judgment prediction is the task of automatically predicting the outcome of a court case, given a text describing the case's facts. Previous work on using neural models for this task has focused on Chinese; only feature-based models (e.g., using bags of words and topics) have been considered in English. We release a new English legal judgment prediction dataset, containing cases from the European Court of Human Rights. We evaluate a broad variety of neural models on the new dataset, establishing strong baselines that surpass previous feature-based models in three tasks: (1) binary violation classification; (2) multi-label classification; (3) case importance prediction. We also explore if models are biased towards demographic information via data anonymization. As a side-product, we propose a hierarchical version of BERT, which bypasses BERT's length limitation.

Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a standardized set of forecasting questions. To address this gap, we introduce ForecastBench: a dynamic benchmark that evaluates the accuracy of ML systems on an automatically generated and regularly updated set of 1,000 forecasting questions. To avoid any possibility of data leakage, ForecastBench is comprised solely of questions about future events that have no known answer at the time of submission. We quantify the capabilities of current ML systems by collecting forecasts from expert (human) forecasters, the general public, and LLMs on a random subset of questions from the benchmark (N=200). While LLMs have achieved super-human performance on many benchmarks, they perform less well here: expert forecasters outperform the top-performing LLM (p-value <0.001). We display system and human scores in a public leaderboard at www.forecastbench.org.

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound). However, model scores are often not aligned with the true positivity rate. This is especially true when the training involves a differential sampling across classes or there is distributional drift between train and test settings. In this paper, we provide theoretical analysis and empirical evidence of the dependence of model score estimation bias on both uncertainty and score itself. Further, we formulate the decision boundary selection in terms of both model score and uncertainty, prove that it is NP-hard, and present algorithms based on dynamic programming and isotonic regression. Evaluation of the proposed algorithms on three real-world datasets yield 25%-40% gain in recall at high precision bounds over the traditional approach of using model score alone, highlighting the benefits of leveraging uncertainty.

The rapid advancements in computing dramatically increase the scale and cost of training Large Language Models (LLMs). Accurately predicting downstream task performance prior to model training is crucial for efficient resource allocation, yet remains challenging due to two primary constraints: (1) the "emergence phenomenon", wherein downstream performance metrics become meaningful only after extensive training, which limits the ability to use smaller models for prediction; (2) Uneven task difficulty distributions and the absence of consistent scaling laws, resulting in substantial metric variability. Existing performance prediction methods suffer from limited accuracy and reliability, thereby impeding the assessment of potential LLM capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose a Clustering-On-Difficulty (COD) downstream performance prediction framework. COD first constructs a predictable support subset by clustering tasks based on difficulty features, strategically excluding non-emergent and non-scalable clusters. The scores on the selected subset serve as effective intermediate predictors of downstream performance on the full evaluation set. With theoretical support, we derive a mapping function that transforms performance metrics from the predictable subset to the full evaluation set, thereby ensuring accurate extrapolation of LLM downstream performance. The proposed method has been applied to predict performance scaling for a 70B LLM, providing actionable insights for training resource allocation and assisting in monitoring the training process. Notably, COD achieves remarkable predictive accuracy on the 70B LLM by leveraging an ensemble of small models, demonstrating an absolute mean deviation of 1.36% across eight important LLM evaluation benchmarks.

In any ranking system, the retrieval model outputs a single score for a document based on its belief on how relevant it is to a given search query. While retrieval models have continued to improve with the introduction of increasingly complex architectures, few works have investigated a retrieval model's belief in the score beyond the scope of a single value. We argue that capturing the model's uncertainty with respect to its own scoring of a document is a critical aspect of retrieval that allows for greater use of current models across new document distributions, collections, or even improving effectiveness for down-stream tasks. In this paper, we address this problem via an efficient Bayesian framework for retrieval models which captures the model's belief in the relevance score through a stochastic process while adding only negligible computational overhead. We evaluate this belief via a ranking based calibration metric showing that our approximate Bayesian framework significantly improves a retrieval model's ranking effectiveness through a risk aware reranking as well as its confidence calibration. Lastly, we demonstrate that this additional uncertainty information is actionable and reliable on down-stream tasks represented via cutoff prediction.

Large language models (LLMs), renowned for their powerful conversational abilities, are widely recognized as exceptional tools in the field of education, particularly in the context of automated intelligent instruction systems for language learning. In this paper, we propose a scoring system based on LLMs, motivated by their positive impact on text-related scoring tasks. Specifically, the speech encoder first maps the learner's speech into contextual features. The adapter layer then transforms these features to align with the text embedding in latent space. The assessment task-specific prefix and prompt text are embedded and concatenated with the features generated by the modality adapter layer, enabling the LLMs to predict accuracy and fluency scores. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed scoring systems achieve competitive results compared to the baselines on the Speechocean762 datasets. Moreover, we also conducted an ablation study to better understand the contributions of the prompt text and training strategy in the proposed scoring system.

The rise of large language models (LLMs) has brought a critical need for high-quality human-labeled data, particularly for processes like human feedback and evaluation. A common practice is to label data via consensus annotation over crowdworker judgments. However, annotators' judgments for subjective tasks can differ in many ways: they may have different qualitative judgments about an example, and they may map those to a labeling scheme in different ways. We show that these nuances can be captured by natural language explanations, and propose a method to rescale ordinal annotations and explanations using LLMs. Specifically, we feed annotators' Likert ratings and corresponding explanations into an LLM and prompt it to produce a numeric score anchored in a scoring rubric. These scores should reflect the annotators' underlying assessments of the example. The rubric can be designed or modified after annotation, and include distinctions that may not have been known when the original error taxonomy was devised. We explore our technique in the context of rating system outputs for a document-grounded question answering task, where LLMs achieve near-human performance. Our method rescales the raw judgments without impacting agreement and brings the scores closer to human judgments grounded in the same scoring rubric.

There has been considerable recent interest in scoring properties on the basis of eviction risk. The success of methods for eviction prediction is typically evaluated using different measures of predictive accuracy. However, the underlying goal of such prediction is to direct appropriate assistance to households that may be at greater risk so they remain stably housed. Thus, we must ask the question of how useful such predictions are in targeting outreach efforts - informing action. In this paper, we investigate this question using a novel dataset that matches information on properties, evictions, and owners. We perform an eviction prediction task to produce risk scores and then use these risk scores to plan targeted outreach policies. We show that the risk scores are, in fact, useful, enabling a theoretical team of caseworkers to reach more eviction-prone properties in the same amount of time, compared to outreach policies that are either neighborhood-based or focus on buildings with a recent history of evictions. We also discuss the importance of neighborhood and ownership features in both risk prediction and targeted outreach.

Failure of machine learning models to generalize to new data is a core problem limiting the reliability of AI systems, partly due to the lack of simple and robust methods for comparing new data to the original training dataset. We propose a standardized approach for assessing data similarity in a model-agnostic manner by constructing a supervised autoencoder for generalizability estimation (SAGE). We compare points in a low-dimensional embedded latent space, defining empirical probability measures for k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) distance, reconstruction of inputs and task-based performance. As proof of concept for classification tasks, we use MNIST and CIFAR-10 to demonstrate how an ensemble output probability score can separate deformed images from a mixture of typical test examples, and how this SAGE score is robust to transformations of increasing severity. As further proof of concept, we extend this approach to a regression task using non-imaging data (UCI Abalone). In all cases, we show that out-of-the-box model performance increases after SAGE score filtering, even when applied to data from the model's own training and test datasets. Our out-of-distribution scoring method can be introduced during several steps of model construction and assessment, leading to future improvements in responsible deep learning implementation.

We present SURE-Score: an approach for learning score-based generative models using training samples corrupted by additive Gaussian noise. When a large training set of clean samples is available, solving inverse problems via score-based (diffusion) generative models trained on the underlying fully-sampled data distribution has recently been shown to outperform end-to-end supervised deep learning. In practice, such a large collection of training data may be prohibitively expensive to acquire in the first place. In this work, we present an approach for approximately learning a score-based generative model of the clean distribution, from noisy training data. We formulate and justify a novel loss function that leverages Stein's unbiased risk estimate to jointly denoise the data and learn the score function via denoising score matching, while using only the noisy samples. We demonstrate the generality of SURE-Score by learning priors and applying posterior sampling to ill-posed inverse problems in two practical applications from different domains: compressive wireless multiple-input multiple-output channel estimation and accelerated 2D multi-coil magnetic resonance imaging reconstruction, where we demonstrate competitive reconstruction performance when learning at signal-to-noise ratio values of 0 and 10 dB, respectively.

Recent success in deep learning has partially been driven by training increasingly overparametrized networks on ever larger datasets. It is therefore natural to ask: how much of the data is superfluous, which examples are important for generalization, and how do we find them? In this work, we make the striking observation that, in standard vision datasets, simple scores averaged over several weight initializations can be used to identify important examples very early in training. We propose two such scores -- the Gradient Normed (GraNd) and the Error L2-Norm (EL2N) scores -- and demonstrate their efficacy on a range of architectures and datasets by pruning significant fractions of training data without sacrificing test accuracy. In fact, using EL2N scores calculated a few epochs into training, we can prune half of the CIFAR10 training set while slightly improving test accuracy. Furthermore, for a given dataset, EL2N scores from one architecture or hyperparameter configuration generalize to other configurations. Compared to recent work that prunes data by discarding examples that are rarely forgotten over the course of training, our scores use only local information early in training. We also use our scores to detect noisy examples and study training dynamics through the lens of important examples -- we investigate how the data distribution shapes the loss surface and identify subspaces of the model's data representation that are relatively stable over training.

We propose a deep-learning system -- for the SQuAD2.0 task -- that finds, or indicates the lack of, a correct answer to a question in a context paragraph. Our goal is to learn an ensemble of heterogeneous SQuAD2.0 models that, when blended properly, outperforms the best model in the ensemble per se. We created a stacking ensemble that combines top-N predictions from two models, based on ALBERT and RoBERTa, into a multiclass classification task to pick the best answer out of their predictions. We explored various ensemble configurations, input representations, and model architectures. For evaluation, we examined test-set EM and F1 scores; our best-performing ensemble incorporated a CNN-based meta-model and scored 87.117 and 90.306, respectively -- a relative improvement of 0.55% for EM and 0.61% for F1 scores, compared to the baseline performance of the best model in the ensemble, an ALBERT-based model, at 86.644 for EM and 89.760 for F1.

Automated essay scoring (AES) involves predicting a score that reflects the writing quality of an essay. Most existing AES systems produce only a single overall score. However, users and L2 learners expect scores across different dimensions (e.g., vocabulary, grammar, coherence) for English essays in real-world applications. To address this need, we have developed two models that automatically score English essays across multiple dimensions by employing fine-tuning and other strategies on two large datasets. The results demonstrate that our systems achieve impressive performance in evaluation using three criteria: precision, F1 score, and Quadratic Weighted Kappa. Furthermore, our system outperforms existing methods in overall scoring.

Music scores are written representations of music and contain rich information about musical components. The visual information on music scores includes notes, rests, staff lines, clefs, dynamics, and articulations. This visual information in music scores contains more semantic information than audio and symbolic representations of music. Previous music score datasets have limited sizes and are mainly designed for optical music recognition (OMR). There is a lack of research on creating a large-scale benchmark dataset for music modeling and generation. In this work, we propose MusicScore, a large-scale music score dataset collected and processed from the International Music Score Library Project (IMSLP). MusicScore consists of image-text pairs, where the image is a page of a music score and the text is the metadata of the music. The metadata of MusicScore is extracted from the general information section of the IMSLP pages. The metadata includes rich information about the composer, instrument, piece style, and genre of the music pieces. MusicScore is curated into small, medium, and large scales of 400, 14k, and 200k image-text pairs with varying diversity, respectively. We build a score generation system based on a UNet diffusion model to generate visually readable music scores conditioned on text descriptions to benchmark the MusicScore dataset for music score generation. MusicScore is released to the public at https://huggingface.co/datasets/ZheqiDAI/MusicScore.

In this work, we try to decipher the internal connection of NLP technology development in the past decades, searching for essence, which rewards us with a (potential) new learning paradigm for NLP tasks, dubbed as reStructured Pre-training (RST). In such a paradigm, the role of data will be re-emphasized, and model pre-training and fine-tuning of downstream tasks are viewed as a process of data storing and accessing. Based on that, we operationalize the simple principle that a good storage mechanism should not only have the ability to cache a large amount of data but also consider the ease of access. We achieve this by pre-training models over restructured data that consist of a variety of valuable information instead of raw data after overcoming several engineering challenges. Experimentally, RST models not only surpass strong competitors (e.g., T0) on 52/55 popular datasets from a variety of NLP tasks, but also achieve superior performance in National College Entrance Examination - English (Gaokao-English),the most authoritative examination in China. Specifically, the proposed system Qin achieves 40 points higher than the average scores made by students and 15 points higher than GPT3 with 1/16 parameters. In particular, Qin gets a high score of 138.5 (the full mark is 150) in the 2018 English exam (national paper III). We have released the Gaokao Benchmark with an online submission platform. In addition, we test our model in the 2022 College Entrance Examination English that happened a few days ago (2022.06.08), and it gets a total score of 134 (v.s. GPT3's 108).

Causality detection draws plenty of attention in the field of Natural Language Processing and linguistics research. It has essential applications in information retrieval, event prediction, question answering, financial analysis, and market research. In this study, we explore several methods to identify and extract cause-effect pairs in financial documents using transformers. For this purpose, we propose an approach that combines POS tagging with the BIO scheme, which can be integrated with modern transformer models to address this challenge of identifying causality in a given text. Our best methodology achieves an F1-Score of 0.9551, and an Exact Match Score of 0.8777 on the blind test in the FinCausal-2021 Shared Task at the FinCausal 2021 Workshop.

In precision-oriented tasks like answer ranking, it is more important to rank many relevant answers highly than to retrieve all relevant answers. It follows that a good ranking strategy would be to learn how to identify the easiest correct answers first (i.e., assign a high ranking score to answers that have characteristics that usually indicate relevance, and a low ranking score to those with characteristics that do not), before incorporating more complex logic to handle difficult cases (e.g., semantic matching or reasoning). In this work, we apply this idea to the training of neural answer rankers using curriculum learning. We propose several heuristics to estimate the difficulty of a given training sample. We show that the proposed heuristics can be used to build a training curriculum that down-weights difficult samples early in the training process. As the training process progresses, our approach gradually shifts to weighting all samples equally, regardless of difficulty. We present a comprehensive evaluation of our proposed idea on three answer ranking datasets. Results show that our approach leads to superior performance of two leading neural ranking architectures, namely BERT and ConvKNRM, using both pointwise and pairwise losses. When applied to a BERT-based ranker, our method yields up to a 4% improvement in MRR and a 9% improvement in P@1 (compared to the model trained without a curriculum). This results in models that can achieve comparable performance to more expensive state-of-the-art techniques.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

Scoring systems are linear classification models that only require users to add, subtract and multiply a few small numbers in order to make a prediction. These models are in widespread use by the medical community, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be accurate and sparse, have coprime integer coefficients, and satisfy multiple operational constraints. We present a new method for creating data-driven scoring systems called a Supersparse Linear Integer Model (SLIM). SLIM scoring systems are built by solving an integer program that directly encodes measures of accuracy (the 0-1 loss) and sparsity (the ell_0-seminorm) while restricting coefficients to coprime integers. SLIM can seamlessly incorporate a wide range of operational constraints related to accuracy and sparsity, and can produce highly tailored models without parameter tuning. We provide bounds on the testing and training accuracy of SLIM scoring systems, and present a new data reduction technique that can improve scalability by eliminating a portion of the training data beforehand. Our paper includes results from a collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital Sleep Laboratory, where SLIM was used to create a highly tailored scoring system for sleep apnea screening

We introduce BM25S, an efficient Python-based implementation of BM25 that only depends on Numpy and Scipy. BM25S achieves up to a 500x speedup compared to the most popular Python-based framework by eagerly computing BM25 scores during indexing and storing them into sparse matrices. It also achieves considerable speedups compared to highly optimized Java-based implementations, which are used by popular commercial products. Finally, BM25S reproduces the exact implementation of five BM25 variants based on Kamphuis et al. (2020) by extending eager scoring to non-sparse variants using a novel score shifting method. The code can be found at https://github.com/xhluca/bm25s

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time evolving random forest classifier which leverages some unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.

Learning to rank is a key component of many e-commerce search engines. In learning to rank, one is interested in optimising the global ordering of a list of items according to their utility for users.Popular approaches learn a scoring function that scores items individually (i.e. without the context of other items in the list) by optimising a pointwise, pairwise or listwise loss. The list is then sorted in the descending order of the scores. Possible interactions between items present in the same list are taken into account in the training phase at the loss level. However, during inference, items are scored individually, and possible interactions between them are not considered. In this paper, we propose a context-aware neural network model that learns item scores by applying a self-attention mechanism. The relevance of a given item is thus determined in the context of all other items present in the list, both in training and in inference. We empirically demonstrate significant performance gains of self-attention based neural architecture over Multi-LayerPerceptron baselines, in particular on a dataset coming from search logs of a large scale e-commerce marketplace, Allegro.pl. This effect is consistent across popular pointwise, pairwise and listwise losses.Finally, we report new state-of-the-art results on MSLR-WEB30K, the learning to rank benchmark.

We present the Legal Passage Retrieval Dataset LePaRD. LePaRD is a massive collection of U.S. federal judicial citations to precedent in context. The dataset aims to facilitate work on legal passage prediction, a challenging practice-oriented legal retrieval and reasoning task. Legal passage prediction seeks to predict relevant passages from precedential court decisions given the context of a legal argument. We extensively evaluate various retrieval approaches on LePaRD, and find that classification appears to work best. However, we note that legal precedent prediction is a difficult task, and there remains significant room for improvement. We hope that by publishing LePaRD, we will encourage others to engage with a legal NLP task that promises to help expand access to justice by reducing the burden associated with legal research. A subset of the LePaRD dataset is freely available and the whole dataset will be released upon publication.

Understanding a student's problem-solving strategy can have a significant impact on effective math learning using Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) and Adaptive Instructional Systems (AISs). For instance, the ITS/AIS can better personalize itself to correct specific misconceptions that are indicated by incorrect strategies, specific problems can be designed to improve strategies and frustration can be minimized by adapting to a student's natural way of thinking rather than trying to fit a standard strategy for all. While it may be possible for human experts to identify strategies manually in classroom settings with sufficient student interaction, it is not possible to scale this up to big data. Therefore, we leverage advances in Machine Learning and AI methods to perform scalable strategy prediction that is also fair to students at all skill levels. Specifically, we develop an embedding called MVec where we learn a representation based on the mastery of students. We then cluster these embeddings with a non-parametric clustering method where we progressively learn clusters such that we group together instances that have approximately symmetrical strategies. The strategy prediction model is trained on instances sampled from these clusters. This ensures that we train the model over diverse strategies and also that strategies from a particular group do not bias the DNN model, thus allowing it to optimize its parameters over all groups. Using real world large-scale student interaction datasets from MATHia, we implement our approach using transformers and Node2Vec for learning the mastery embeddings and LSTMs for predicting strategies. We show that our approach can scale up to achieve high accuracy by training on a small sample of a large dataset and also has predictive equality, i.e., it can predict strategies equally well for learners at diverse skill levels.

Diffusion models have emerged as the principal paradigm for generative modeling across various domains. During training, they learn the score function, which in turn is used to generate samples at inference. They raise a basic yet unsolved question: which score do they actually learn? In principle, a diffusion model that matches the empirical score in the entire data space would simply reproduce the training data, failing to generate novel samples. Recent work addresses this question by arguing that diffusion models underfit the empirical score due to training-time inductive biases. In this work, we refine this perspective, introducing the notion of selective underfitting: instead of underfitting the score everywhere, better diffusion models more accurately approximate the score in certain regions of input space, while underfitting it in others. We characterize these regions and design empirical interventions to validate our perspective. Our results establish that selective underfitting is essential for understanding diffusion models, yielding new, testable insights into their generalization and generative performance.

There is a long history, as well as a recent explosion of interest, in statistical and generative modeling approaches based on score functions -- derivatives of the log-likelihood of a distribution. In seminal works, Hyv\"arinen proposed vanilla score matching as a way to learn distributions from data by computing an estimate of the score function of the underlying ground truth, and established connections between this method and established techniques like Contrastive Divergence and Pseudolikelihood estimation. It is by now well-known that vanilla score matching has significant difficulties learning multimodal distributions. Although there are various ways to overcome this difficulty, the following question has remained unanswered -- is there a natural way to sample multimodal distributions using just the vanilla score? Inspired by a long line of related experimental works, we prove that the Langevin diffusion with early stopping, initialized at the empirical distribution, and run on a score function estimated from data successfully generates natural multimodal distributions (mixtures of log-concave distributions).

This paper surveys and organizes research works in a new paradigm in natural language processing, which we dub "prompt-based learning". Unlike traditional supervised learning, which trains a model to take in an input x and predict an output y as P(y|x), prompt-based learning is based on language models that model the probability of text directly. To use these models to perform prediction tasks, the original input x is modified using a template into a textual string prompt x' that has some unfilled slots, and then the language model is used to probabilistically fill the unfilled information to obtain a final string x, from which the final output y can be derived. This framework is powerful and attractive for a number of reasons: it allows the language model to be pre-trained on massive amounts of raw text, and by defining a new prompting function the model is able to perform few-shot or even zero-shot learning, adapting to new scenarios with few or no labeled data. In this paper we introduce the basics of this promising paradigm, describe a unified set of mathematical notations that can cover a wide variety of existing work, and organize existing work along several dimensions, e.g.the choice of pre-trained models, prompts, and tuning strategies. To make the field more accessible to interested beginners, we not only make a systematic review of existing works and a highly structured typology of prompt-based concepts, but also release other resources, e.g., a website http://pretrain.nlpedia.ai/ including constantly-updated survey, and paperlist.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Recently, with the chain of thought (CoT) prompting, large language models (LLMs), e.g., GPT-3, have shown strong reasoning ability in several natural language processing tasks such as arithmetic, commonsense, and logical reasoning. However, LLMs with CoT require multi-step prompting and multi-token prediction, which is highly sensitive to individual mistakes and vulnerable to error accumulation. The above issues make the LLMs need the ability to verify the answers. In fact, after inferring conclusions in some thinking decision tasks, people often check them by re-verifying steps to avoid some mistakes. In this paper, we propose and prove that LLMs also have similar self-verification abilities. We take the conclusion obtained by CoT as one of the conditions for solving the original problem. By taking turns masking the original conditions and predicting their results, we calculate an explainable answer verification score based on whether the re-predicted conditions are correct. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can improve the reasoning performance on various arithmetic, commonsense, and logical reasoning datasets. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/WENGSYX/Self-Verification.

Memorization, or the tendency of large language models (LLMs) to output entire sequences from their training data verbatim, is a key concern for safely deploying language models. In particular, it is vital to minimize a model's memorization of sensitive datapoints such as those containing personal identifiable information (PII). The prevalence of such undesirable memorization can pose issues for model trainers, and may even require discarding an otherwise functional model. We therefore seek to predict which sequences will be memorized before a large model's full train-time by extrapolating the memorization behavior of lower-compute trial runs. We measure memorization of the Pythia model suite and plot scaling laws for forecasting memorization, allowing us to provide equi-compute recommendations to maximize the reliability (recall) of such predictions. We additionally provide further novel discoveries on the distribution of memorization scores across models and data. We release all code and data necessary to reproduce the results in this paper at https://github.com/EleutherAI/pythia

Lately, pre-trained language models advanced the field of natural language processing (NLP). The introduction of Bidirectional Encoders for Transformers (BERT) and its optimized version RoBERTa have had significant impact and increased the relevance of pre-trained models. First, research in this field mainly started on English data followed by models trained with multilingual text corpora. However, current research shows that multilingual models are inferior to monolingual models. Currently, no German single language RoBERTa model is yet published, which we introduce in this work (GottBERT). The German portion of the OSCAR data set was used as text corpus. In an evaluation we compare its performance on the two Named Entity Recognition (NER) tasks Conll 2003 and GermEval 2014 as well as on the text classification tasks GermEval 2018 (fine and coarse) and GNAD with existing German single language BERT models and two multilingual ones. GottBERT was pre-trained related to the original RoBERTa model using fairseq. All downstream tasks were trained using hyperparameter presets taken from the benchmark of German BERT. The experiments were setup utilizing FARM. Performance was measured by the F_{1} score. GottBERT was successfully pre-trained on a 256 core TPU pod using the RoBERTa BASE architecture. Even without extensive hyper-parameter optimization, in all NER and one text classification task, GottBERT already outperformed all other tested German and multilingual models. In order to support the German NLP field, we publish GottBERT under the AGPLv3 license.

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) makes it important to recognize their strengths and limitations. We argue that in order to develop a holistic understanding of these systems we need to consider the problem that they were trained to solve: next-word prediction over Internet text. By recognizing the pressures that this task exerts we can make predictions about the strategies that LLMs will adopt, allowing us to reason about when they will succeed or fail. This approach - which we call the teleological approach - leads us to identify three factors that we hypothesize will influence LLM accuracy: the probability of the task to be performed, the probability of the target output, and the probability of the provided input. We predict that LLMs will achieve higher accuracy when these probabilities are high than when they are low - even in deterministic settings where probability should not matter. To test our predictions, we evaluate two LLMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) on eleven tasks, and we find robust evidence that LLMs are influenced by probability in the ways that we have hypothesized. In many cases, the experiments reveal surprising failure modes. For instance, GPT-4's accuracy at decoding a simple cipher is 51% when the output is a high-probability word sequence but only 13% when it is low-probability. These results show that AI practitioners should be careful about using LLMs in low-probability situations. More broadly, we conclude that we should not evaluate LLMs as if they are humans but should instead treat them as a distinct type of system - one that has been shaped by its own particular set of pressures.

AI researchers and practitioners increasingly apply large language models (LLMs) to what we call reasoning-intensive regression (RiR), i.e. deducing subtle numerical properties from text. Unlike standard language regression tasks, e.g. for sentiment or similarity, RiR often appears instead in ad-hoc problems like rubric-based scoring or domain-specific retrieval, where much deeper analysis of text is required while only limited task-specific training data and computation are available. We cast three realistic problems as RiR tasks to establish an initial benchmark, and use that to test our hypothesis that prompting frozen LLMs and finetuning Transformer encoders via gradient descent will both often struggle in RiR. We then propose MENTAT, a simple and lightweight method that combines batch-reflective prompt optimization with neural ensemble learning. MENTAT achieves up to 65% improvement over both baselines, though substantial room remains for future advances in RiR.

Many existing conditional score-based data generation methods utilize Bayes' theorem to decompose the gradients of a log posterior density into a mixture of scores. These methods facilitate the training procedure of conditional score models, as a mixture of scores can be separately estimated using a score model and a classifier. However, our analysis indicates that the training objectives for the classifier in these methods may lead to a serious score mismatch issue, which corresponds to the situation that the estimated scores deviate from the true ones. Such an issue causes the samples to be misled by the deviated scores during the diffusion process, resulting in a degraded sampling quality. To resolve it, we formulate a novel training objective, called Denoising Likelihood Score Matching (DLSM) loss, for the classifier to match the gradients of the true log likelihood density. Our experimental evidence shows that the proposed method outperforms the previous methods on both Cifar-10 and Cifar-100 benchmarks noticeably in terms of several key evaluation metrics. We thus conclude that, by adopting DLSM, the conditional scores can be accurately modeled, and the effect of the score mismatch issue is alleviated.

The prohibitive cost of evaluating large language models (LLMs) on comprehensive benchmarks necessitates the creation of small yet representative data subsets (i.e., tiny benchmarks) that enable efficient assessment while retaining predictive fidelity. Current methods for this task operate under a model-centric paradigm, selecting benchmarking items based on the collective performance of existing models. Such approaches are limited by large upfront costs, an inability to immediately handle new benchmarks (`cold-start'), and the fragile assumption that future models will share the failure patterns of their predecessors. In this work, we challenge this paradigm and propose a item-centric approach to benchmark subset selection, arguing that selection should be based on the intrinsic properties of the task items themselves, rather than on model-specific failure patterns. We instantiate this item-centric efficient benchmarking approach via a novel method, Scales++, where data selection is based on the cognitive demands of the benchmark samples. Empirically, we show Scales++ reduces the upfront selection cost by over 18x while achieving competitive predictive fidelity. On the Open LLM Leaderboard, using just a 0.5\% data subset, we predict full benchmark scores with a 2.9% mean absolute error. We demonstrate that this item-centric approach enables more efficient model evaluation without significant fidelity degradation, while also providing better cold-start performance and more interpretable benchmarking.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Text embedding models have been popular for information retrieval applications such as semantic search and Question-Answering systems based on Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). Those models are typically Transformer models that are fine-tuned with contrastive learning objectives. Many papers introduced new embedding model architectures and training approaches, however, one of the key ingredients, the process of mining negative passages, remains poorly explored or described. One of the challenging aspects of fine-tuning embedding models is the selection of high quality hard-negative passages for contrastive learning. In this paper we propose a family of positive-aware mining methods that leverage the positive relevance score for more effective false negatives removal. We also provide a comprehensive ablation study on hard-negative mining methods over their configurations, exploring different teacher and base models. We demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed methods by introducing the NV-Retriever-v1 model, which scores 60.9 on MTEB Retrieval (BEIR) benchmark and 0.65 points higher than previous methods. The model placed 1st when it was published to MTEB Retrieval on July 07, 2024.

Leveraging the models' outputs, specifically the logits, is a common approach to estimating the test accuracy of a pre-trained neural network on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples without requiring access to the corresponding ground truth labels. Despite their ease of implementation and computational efficiency, current logit-based methods are vulnerable to overconfidence issues, leading to prediction bias, especially under the natural shift. In this work, we first study the relationship between logits and generalization performance from the view of low-density separation assumption. Our findings motivate our proposed method MaNo which (1) applies a data-dependent normalization on the logits to reduce prediction bias, and (2) takes the L_p norm of the matrix of normalized logits as the estimation score. Our theoretical analysis highlights the connection between the provided score and the model's uncertainty. We conduct an extensive empirical study on common unsupervised accuracy estimation benchmarks and demonstrate that MaNo achieves state-of-the-art performance across various architectures in the presence of synthetic, natural, or subpopulation shifts.

Automated Essay Score (AES) is proven to be one of the cutting-edge technologies. Scoring techniques are used for various purposes. Reliable scores are calculated based on influential variables. Such variables can be computed by different methods based on the domain. The research is concentrated on the user's understanding of a given topic. The analysis is based on a scoring index by using Large Language Models. The user can then compare and contrast the understanding of a topic that they recently learned. The results are then contributed towards learning analytics and progression is made for enhancing the learning ability. In this research, the focus is on summarizing a PDF document and gauging a user's understanding of its content. The process involves utilizing a Langchain tool to summarize the PDF and extract the essential information. By employing this technique, the research aims to determine how well the user comprehends the summarized content.

The purported "black box" nature of neural networks is a barrier to adoption in applications where interpretability is essential. Here we present DeepLIFT (Deep Learning Important FeaTures), a method for decomposing the output prediction of a neural network on a specific input by backpropagating the contributions of all neurons in the network to every feature of the input. DeepLIFT compares the activation of each neuron to its 'reference activation' and assigns contribution scores according to the difference. By optionally giving separate consideration to positive and negative contributions, DeepLIFT can also reveal dependencies which are missed by other approaches. Scores can be computed efficiently in a single backward pass. We apply DeepLIFT to models trained on MNIST and simulated genomic data, and show significant advantages over gradient-based methods. Video tutorial: http://goo.gl/qKb7pL, ICML slides: bit.ly/deeplifticmlslides, ICML talk: https://vimeo.com/238275076, code: http://goo.gl/RM8jvH.

We build a dual-way neural dictionary to retrieve words given definitions, and produce definitions for queried words. The model learns the two tasks simultaneously and handles unknown words via embeddings. It casts a word or a definition to the same representation space through a shared layer, then generates the other form in a multi-task fashion. Our method achieves promising automatic scores on previous benchmarks without extra resources. Human annotators prefer the model's outputs in both reference-less and reference-based evaluation, indicating its practicality. Analysis suggests that multiple objectives benefit learning.

We developed an explainable artificial intelligence (AI) early warning score (xAI-EWS) system for early detection of acute critical illness. While maintaining a high predictive performance, our system explains to the clinician on which relevant electronic health records (EHRs) data the prediction is grounded. Acute critical illness is often preceded by deterioration of routinely measured clinical parameters, e.g., blood pressure and heart rate. Early clinical prediction is typically based on manually calculated screening metrics that simply weigh these parameters, such as Early Warning Scores (EWS). The predictive performance of EWSs yields a tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity that can lead to negative outcomes for the patient. Previous work on EHR-trained AI systems offers promising results with high levels of predictive performance in relation to the early, real-time prediction of acute critical illness. However, without insight into the complex decisions by such system, clinical translation is hindered. In this letter, we present our xAI-EWS system, which potentiates clinical translation by accompanying a prediction with information on the EHR data explaining it.

Diffusion models have shown remarkable performance in generation problems over various domains including images, videos, text, and audio. A practical bottleneck of diffusion models is their sampling speed, due to the repeated evaluation of score estimation networks during the inference. In this work, we propose a novel framework capable of adaptively allocating compute required for the score estimation, thereby reducing the overall sampling time of diffusion models. We observe that the amount of computation required for the score estimation may vary along the time step for which the score is estimated. Based on this observation, we propose an early-exiting scheme, where we skip the subset of parameters in the score estimation network during the inference, based on a time-dependent exit schedule. Using the diffusion models for image synthesis, we show that our method could significantly improve the sampling throughput of the diffusion models without compromising image quality. Furthermore, we also demonstrate that our method seamlessly integrates with various types of solvers for faster sampling, capitalizing on their compatibility to enhance overall efficiency. The source code and our experiments are available at https://github.com/taehong-moon/ee-diffusion

Ordinal regression refers to classifying object instances into ordinal categories. It has been widely studied in many scenarios, such as medical disease grading, movie rating, etc. Known methods focused only on learning inter-class ordinal relationships, but still incur limitations in distinguishing adjacent categories thus far. In this paper, we propose a simple sequence prediction framework for ordinal regression called Ord2Seq, which, for the first time, transforms each ordinal category label into a special label sequence and thus regards an ordinal regression task as a sequence prediction process. In this way, we decompose an ordinal regression task into a series of recursive binary classification steps, so as to subtly distinguish adjacent categories. Comprehensive experiments show the effectiveness of distinguishing adjacent categories for performance improvement and our new approach exceeds state-of-the-art performances in four different scenarios. Codes are available at https://github.com/wjh892521292/Ord2Seq.

This paper presents an improved LLM based model for Grammatical Error Detection (GED), which is a very challenging and equally important problem for many applications. The traditional approach to GED involved hand-designed features, but recently, Neural Networks (NN) have automated the discovery of these features, improving performance in GED. Traditional rule-based systems have an F1 score of 0.50-0.60 and earlier machine learning models give an F1 score of 0.65-0.75, including decision trees and simple neural networks. Previous deep learning models, for example, Bi-LSTM, have reported F1 scores within the range from 0.80 to 0.90. In our study, we have fine-tuned various transformer models using the Lang8 dataset rigorously cleaned by us. In our experiments, the BERT-base-uncased model gave an impressive performance with an F1 score of 0.91 and accuracy of 98.49% on training data and 90.53% on testing data, also showcasing the importance of data cleaning. Increasing model size using BERT-large-uncased or RoBERTa-large did not give any noticeable improvements in performance or advantage for this task, underscoring that larger models are not always better. Our results clearly show how far rigorous data cleaning and simple transformer-based models can go toward significantly improving the quality of GED.

We propose a Monte Carlo sampler from the reverse diffusion process. Unlike the practice of diffusion models, where the intermediary updates -- the score functions -- are learned with a neural network, we transform the score matching problem into a mean estimation one. By estimating the means of the regularized posterior distributions, we derive a novel Monte Carlo sampling algorithm called reverse diffusion Monte Carlo (rdMC), which is distinct from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We determine the sample size from the error tolerance and the properties of the posterior distribution to yield an algorithm that can approximately sample the target distribution with any desired accuracy. Additionally, we demonstrate and prove under suitable conditions that sampling with rdMC can be significantly faster than that with MCMC. For multi-modal target distributions such as those in Gaussian mixture models, rdMC greatly improves over the Langevin-style MCMC sampling methods both theoretically and in practice. The proposed rdMC method offers a new perspective and solution beyond classical MCMC algorithms for the challenging complex distributions.

Do large language models (LLMs) anticipate when they will answer correctly? To study this, we extract activations after a question is read but before any tokens are generated, and train linear probes to predict whether the model's forthcoming answer will be correct. Across three open-source model families ranging from 7 to 70 billion parameters, projections on this "in-advance correctness direction" trained on generic trivia questions predict success in distribution and on diverse out-of-distribution knowledge datasets, outperforming black-box baselines and verbalised predicted confidence. Predictive power saturates in intermediate layers, suggesting that self-assessment emerges mid-computation. Notably, generalisation falters on questions requiring mathematical reasoning. Moreover, for models responding "I don't know", doing so strongly correlates with the probe score, indicating that the same direction also captures confidence. By complementing previous results on truthfulness and other behaviours obtained with probes and sparse auto-encoders, our work contributes essential findings to elucidate LLM internals.

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives reliable probabilities since the ground-truth probabilities are not available. The win probability estimation model for esports, which calculates the win probability under a certain game state, is also one of the fields being actively studied in probability estimation. However, most of the previous works evaluated their models using accuracy, a metric that only can measure the performance of discrimination. In this work, we firstly investigate the Brier score and the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a replacement of accuracy used as a performance evaluation metric for win probability estimation models in esports field. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel metric called Balance score which is a simple yet effective metric in terms of six good properties that probability estimation metric should have. Under the general condition, we also found that the Balance score can be an effective approximation of the true expected calibration error which has been imperfectly approximated by ECE using the binning technique. Extensive evaluations using simulation studies and real game snapshot data demonstrate the promising potential to adopt the proposed metric not only for the win probability estimation model for esports but also for evaluating general probability estimation models.

Foundation models rely on large-scale web-crawled datasets, which frequently contain noisy data, biases, and irrelevant content. Existing data selection techniques typically use human heuristics, downstream evaluation datasets, or specialized scoring models, and can overlook samples' utility in the training process. Instead, we propose a new approach, Mimic Score, a data quality metric that uses a pretrained reference model as a guide to assess the usefulness of data samples for training a new model. It relies on the alignment between the gradient of the new model parameters and the vector pointing toward the reference model in weight space. Samples that misalign with this direction are considered low-value and can be filtered out. Motivated by the Mimic score, we develop Grad-Mimic, a data selection framework that identifies and prioritizes useful samples, automating the selection process to create effective filters. Empirically, using Mimic scores to guide model training results in consistent performance gains across six image datasets and enhances the performance of CLIP models. Moreover, Mimic scores and their associated filters improve upon existing filtering methods and offer accurate estimation of dataset quality.

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

We consider the large-scale query-document retrieval problem: given a query (e.g., a question), return the set of relevant documents (e.g., paragraphs containing the answer) from a large document corpus. This problem is often solved in two steps. The retrieval phase first reduces the solution space, returning a subset of candidate documents. The scoring phase then re-ranks the documents. Critically, the retrieval algorithm not only desires high recall but also requires to be highly efficient, returning candidates in time sublinear to the number of documents. Unlike the scoring phase witnessing significant advances recently due to the BERT-style pre-training tasks on cross-attention models, the retrieval phase remains less well studied. Most previous works rely on classic Information Retrieval (IR) methods such as BM-25 (token matching + TF-IDF weights). These models only accept sparse handcrafted features and can not be optimized for different downstream tasks of interest. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive study on the embedding-based retrieval models. We show that the key ingredient of learning a strong embedding-based Transformer model is the set of pre-training tasks. With adequately designed paragraph-level pre-training tasks, the Transformer models can remarkably improve over the widely-used BM-25 as well as embedding models without Transformers. The paragraph-level pre-training tasks we studied are Inverse Cloze Task (ICT), Body First Selection (BFS), Wiki Link Prediction (WLP), and the combination of all three.

Due to the exponentially increasing reach of social media, it is essential to focus on its negative aspects as it can potentially divide society and incite people into violence. In this paper, we present our system description of work on the shared task ComMA@ICON, where we have to classify how aggressive the sentence is and if the sentence is gender-biased or communal biased. These three could be the primary reasons to cause significant problems in society. As team Hypers we have proposed an approach that utilizes different pretrained models with Attention and mean pooling methods. We were able to get Rank 3 with 0.223 Instance F1 score on Bengali, Rank 2 with 0.322 Instance F1 score on Multi-lingual set, Rank 4 with 0.129 Instance F1 score on Meitei and Rank 5 with 0.336 Instance F1 score on Hindi. The source code and the pretrained models of this work can be found here.

We present an online method for estimating the cost of solving SAT problems. Modern SAT solvers present several challenges to estimate search cost including non-chronological backtracking, learning and restarts. Our method uses a linear model trained on data gathered at the start of search. We show the effectiveness of this method using random and structured problems. We demonstrate that predictions made in early restarts can be used to improve later predictions. We also show that we can use such cost estimations to select a solver from a portfolio.

We introduce the submissions of the NJUNLP team to the WMT 2023 Quality Estimation (QE) shared task. Our team submitted predictions for the English-German language pair on all two sub-tasks: (i) sentence- and word-level quality prediction; and (ii) fine-grained error span detection. This year, we further explore pseudo data methods for QE based on NJUQE framework (https://github.com/NJUNLP/njuqe). We generate pseudo MQM data using parallel data from the WMT translation task. We pre-train the XLMR large model on pseudo QE data, then fine-tune it on real QE data. At both stages, we jointly learn sentence-level scores and word-level tags. Empirically, we conduct experiments to find the key hyper-parameters that improve the performance. Technically, we propose a simple method that covert the word-level outputs to fine-grained error span results. Overall, our models achieved the best results in English-German for both word-level and fine-grained error span detection sub-tasks by a considerable margin.

A standard way to evaluate the abilities of LLM involves presenting a multiple-choice question and selecting the option with the highest logit as the model's predicted answer. However, such a format for evaluating LLMs has limitations, since even if the model knows the correct answer, it may struggle to select the corresponding letter simply due to difficulties in following this rigid format. To address this, we introduce new scores that better capture and reveal model's underlying knowledge: the Query-Key Score (QK-score), derived from the interaction between query and key representations in attention heads, and the Attention Score, based on attention weights. These scores are extracted from specific select-and-copy heads, which show consistent performance across popular Multi-Choice Question Answering (MCQA) datasets. Based on these scores, our method improves knowledge extraction, yielding up to 16\% gain for LLaMA2-7B and up to 10\% for larger models on popular MCQA benchmarks. At the same time, the accuracy on a simple synthetic dataset, where the model explicitly knows the right answer, increases by almost 60\%, achieving nearly perfect accuracy, therefore demonstrating the method's efficiency in mitigating MCQA format limitations. To support our claims, we conduct experiments on models ranging from 7 billion to 70 billion parameters in both zero- and few-shot setups.

Analyzing memes on the internet has emerged as a crucial endeavor due to the impact this multi-modal form of content wields in shaping online discourse. Memes have become a powerful tool for expressing emotions and sentiments, possibly even spreading hate and misinformation, through humor and sarcasm. In this paper, we present the overview of the Memotion 3 shared task, as part of the DeFactify 2 workshop at AAAI-23. The task released an annotated dataset of Hindi-English code-mixed memes based on their Sentiment (Task A), Emotion (Task B), and Emotion intensity (Task C). Each of these is defined as an individual task and the participants are ranked separately for each task. Over 50 teams registered for the shared task and 5 made final submissions to the test set of the Memotion 3 dataset. CLIP, BERT modifications, ViT etc. were the most popular models among the participants along with approaches such as Student-Teacher model, Fusion, and Ensembling. The best final F1 score for Task A is 34.41, Task B is 79.77 and Task C is 59.82.

In this paper, we introduce the Chinese AI and Law challenge dataset (CAIL2018), the first large-scale Chinese legal dataset for judgment prediction. \dataset contains more than 2.6 million criminal cases published by the Supreme People's Court of China, which are several times larger than other datasets in existing works on judgment prediction. Moreover, the annotations of judgment results are more detailed and rich. It consists of applicable law articles, charges, and prison terms, which are expected to be inferred according to the fact descriptions of cases. For comparison, we implement several conventional text classification baselines for judgment prediction and experimental results show that it is still a challenge for current models to predict the judgment results of legal cases, especially on prison terms. To help the researchers make improvements on legal judgment prediction, both \dataset and baselines will be released after the CAIL competitionhttp://cail.cipsc.org.cn/.

Imitation learning (IL) with generative models, such as diffusion and flow matching, has enabled robots to perform complex, long-horizon tasks. However, distribution shifts from unseen environments or compounding action errors can still cause unpredictable and unsafe behavior, leading to task failure. Early failure prediction during runtime is therefore essential for deploying robots in human-centered and safety-critical environments. We propose FIPER, a general framework for Failure Prediction at Runtime for generative IL policies that does not require failure data. FIPER identifies two key indicators of impending failure: (i) out-of-distribution (OOD) observations detected via random network distillation in the policy's embedding space, and (ii) high uncertainty in generated actions measured by a novel action-chunk entropy score. Both failure prediction scores are calibrated using a small set of successful rollouts via conformal prediction. A failure alarm is triggered when both indicators, aggregated over short time windows, exceed their thresholds. We evaluate FIPER across five simulation and real-world environments involving diverse failure modes. Our results demonstrate that FIPER better distinguishes actual failures from benign OOD situations and predicts failures more accurately and earlier than existing methods. We thus consider this work an important step towards more interpretable and safer generative robot policies. Code, data and videos are available at https://tum-lsy.github.io/fiper_website.

This study evaluates the performance of OpenAI's o1-preview model in higher-order cognitive domains, including critical thinking, systematic thinking, computational thinking, data literacy, creative thinking, logical reasoning, and scientific reasoning. Using established benchmarks, we compared the o1-preview models's performance to human participants from diverse educational levels. o1-preview achieved a mean score of 24.33 on the Ennis-Weir Critical Thinking Essay Test (EWCTET), surpassing undergraduate (13.8) and postgraduate (18.39) participants (z = 1.60 and 0.90, respectively). In systematic thinking, it scored 46.1, SD = 4.12 on the Lake Urmia Vignette, significantly outperforming the human mean (20.08, SD = 8.13, z = 3.20). For data literacy, o1-preview scored 8.60, SD = 0.70 on Merk et al.'s "Use Data" dimension, compared to the human post-test mean of 4.17, SD = 2.02 (z = 2.19). On creative thinking tasks, the model achieved originality scores of 2.98, SD = 0.73, higher than the human mean of 1.74 (z = 0.71). In logical reasoning (LogiQA), it outperformed humans with average 90%, SD = 10% accuracy versus 86%, SD = 6.5% (z = 0.62). For scientific reasoning, it achieved near-perfect performance (mean = 0.99, SD = 0.12) on the TOSLS,, exceeding the highest human scores of 0.85, SD = 0.13 (z = 1.78). While o1-preview excelled in structured tasks, it showed limitations in problem-solving and adaptive reasoning. These results demonstrate the potential of AI to complement education in structured assessments but highlight the need for ethical oversight and refinement for broader applications.

A major technique in learning-augmented online algorithms is combining multiple algorithms or predictors. Since the performance of each predictor may vary over time, it is desirable to use not the single best predictor as a benchmark, but rather a dynamic combination which follows different predictors at different times. We design algorithms that combine predictions and are competitive against such dynamic combinations for a wide class of online problems, namely, metrical task systems. Against the best (in hindsight) unconstrained combination of ell predictors, we obtain a competitive ratio of O(ell^2), and show that this is best possible. However, for a benchmark with slightly constrained number of switches between different predictors, we can get a (1+epsilon)-competitive algorithm. Moreover, our algorithms can be adapted to access predictors in a bandit-like fashion, querying only one predictor at a time. An unexpected implication of one of our lower bounds is a new structural insight about covering formulations for the k-server problem.

The task of annotating data into concise summaries poses a significant challenge across various domains, frequently requiring the allocation of significant time and specialized knowledge by human experts. Despite existing efforts to use large language models for annotation tasks, significant problems such as limited applicability to unlabeled data, the absence of self-supervised methods, and the lack of focus on complex structured data still persist. In this work, we propose a GPT self-supervision annotation method, which embodies a generating-recovering paradigm that leverages the one-shot learning capabilities of the Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT). The proposed approach comprises a one-shot tuning phase followed by a generation phase. In the one-shot tuning phase, we sample a data from the support set as part of the prompt for GPT to generate a textual summary, which is then used to recover the original data. The alignment score between the recovered and original data serves as a self-supervision navigator to refine the process. In the generation stage, the optimally selected one-shot sample serves as a template in the prompt and is applied to generating summaries from challenging datasets. The annotation performance is evaluated by tuning several human feedback reward networks and by calculating alignment scores between original and recovered data at both sentence and structure levels. Our self-supervised annotation method consistently achieves competitive scores, convincingly demonstrating its robust strength in various data-to-summary annotation tasks.

Basic human values represent a set of values such as security, independence, success, kindness, and pleasure, which we deem important to our lives. Each of us holds different values with different degrees of significance. Existing studies show that values of a person can be identified from their social network usage. However, the value priority of a person may change over time due to different factors such as life experiences, influence, social structure and technology. Existing studies do not conduct any analysis regarding the change of users' value from the social influence, i.e., group persuasion, form the social media usage. In our research, first, we predict users' value score by the influence of friends from their social media usage. We propose a Bounded Confidence Model (BCM) based value dynamics model from 275 different ego networks in Facebook that predicts how social influence may persuade a person to change their value over time. Then, to predict better, we use particle swarm optimization based hyperparameter tuning technique. We observe that these optimized hyperparameters produce accurate future value score. We also run our approach with different machine learning based methods and find support vector regression (SVR) outperforms other regressor models. By using SVR with the best hyperparameters of BCM model, we find the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE) score 0.00347.

Automatic Speech Scoring (ASS) is the computer-assisted evaluation of a candidate's speaking proficiency in a language. ASS systems face many challenges like open grammar, variable pronunciations, and unstructured or semi-structured content. Recent deep learning approaches have shown some promise in this domain. However, most of these approaches focus on extracting features from a single audio, making them suffer from the lack of speaker-specific context required to model such a complex task. We propose a novel deep learning technique for non-native ASS, called speaker-conditioned hierarchical modeling. In our technique, we take advantage of the fact that oral proficiency tests rate multiple responses for a candidate. We extract context vectors from these responses and feed them as additional speaker-specific context to our network to score a particular response. We compare our technique with strong baselines and find that such modeling improves the model's average performance by 6.92% (maximum = 12.86%, minimum = 4.51%). We further show both quantitative and qualitative insights into the importance of this additional context in solving the problem of ASS.

The ability to describe images with natural language sentences is the hallmark for image and language understanding. Such a system has wide ranging applications such as annotating images and using natural sentences to search for images.In this project we focus on the task of bidirectional image retrieval: such asystem is capable of retrieving an image based on a sentence (image search) andretrieve sentence based on an image query (image annotation). We present asystem based on a global ranking objective function which uses a combinationof convolutional neural networks (CNN) and multi layer perceptrons (MLP).It takes a pair of image and sentence and processes them in different channels,finally embedding it into a common multimodal vector space. These embeddingsencode abstract semantic information about the two inputs and can be comparedusing traditional information retrieval approaches. For each such pair, the modelreturns a score which is interpretted as a similarity metric. If this score is high,the image and sentence are likely to convey similar meaning, and if the score is low then they are likely not to. The visual input is modeled via deep convolutional neural network. On theother hand we explore three models for the textual module. The first one isbag of words with an MLP. The second one uses n-grams (bigram, trigrams,and a combination of trigram & skip-grams) with an MLP. The third is morespecialized deep network specific for modeling variable length sequences (SSE).We report comparable performance to recent work in the field, even though ouroverall model is simpler. We also show that the training time choice of how wecan generate our negative samples has a significant impact on performance, and can be used to specialize the bi-directional system in one particular task.

WeatherBench 2 is an update to the global, medium-range (1-14 day) weather forecasting benchmark proposed by Rasp et al. (2020), designed with the aim to accelerate progress in data-driven weather modeling. WeatherBench 2 consists of an open-source evaluation framework, publicly available training, ground truth and baseline data as well as a continuously updated website with the latest metrics and state-of-the-art models: https://sites.research.google/weatherbench. This paper describes the design principles of the evaluation framework and presents results for current state-of-the-art physical and data-driven weather models. The metrics are based on established practices for evaluating weather forecasts at leading operational weather centers. We define a set of headline scores to provide an overview of model performance. In addition, we also discuss caveats in the current evaluation setup and challenges for the future of data-driven weather forecasting.

In this paper, we describe our participation in the subtask 1 of CASE-2022, Event Causality Identification with Casual News Corpus. We address the Causal Relation Identification (CRI) task by exploiting a set of simple yet complementary techniques for fine-tuning language models (LMs) on a small number of annotated examples (i.e., a few-shot configuration). We follow a prompt-based prediction approach for fine-tuning LMs in which the CRI task is treated as a masked language modeling problem (MLM). This approach allows LMs natively pre-trained on MLM problems to directly generate textual responses to CRI-specific prompts. We compare the performance of this method against ensemble techniques trained on the entire dataset. Our best-performing submission was fine-tuned with only 256 instances per class, 15.7% of the all available data, and yet obtained the second-best precision (0.82), third-best accuracy (0.82), and an F1-score (0.85) very close to what was reported by the winner team (0.86).

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

This study evaluates deep neural networks for forecasting probability distributions of financial returns. 1D convolutional neural networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures are used to forecast parameters of three probability distributions: Normal, Student's t, and skewed Student's t. Using custom negative log-likelihood loss functions, distribution parameters are optimized directly. The models are tested on six major equity indices (S\&P 500, BOVESPA, DAX, WIG, Nikkei 225, and KOSPI) using probabilistic evaluation metrics including Log Predictive Score (LPS), Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), and Probability Integral Transform (PIT). Results show that deep learning models provide accurate distributional forecasts and perform competitively with classical GARCH models for Value-at-Risk estimation. The LSTM with skewed Student's t distribution performs best across multiple evaluation criteria, capturing both heavy tails and asymmetry in financial returns. This work shows that deep neural networks are viable alternatives to traditional econometric models for financial risk assessment and portfolio management.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are commonly used as evaluators in various applications, but the reliability of the outcomes remains a challenge. One such challenge is using LLMs-as-judges for direct assessment, i.e., assigning scores from a specified range without any references. We first show that this challenge stems from LLM judge outputs being associated with score range bias, i.e., LLM judge outputs are highly sensitive to pre-defined score ranges, preventing the search for optimal score ranges. We also show that similar biases exist among models from the same family. We then mitigate this bias through contrastive decoding, achieving up to 11.3% relative improvement on average in Spearman correlation with human judgments across different score ranges.

This paper describes the performance of the team cs60075_team2 at SemEval 2021 Task 1 - Lexical Complexity Prediction. The main contribution of this paper is to fine-tune transformer-based language models pre-trained on several text corpora, some being general (E.g., Wikipedia, BooksCorpus), some being the corpora from which the CompLex Dataset was extracted, and others being from other specific domains such as Finance, Law, etc. We perform ablation studies on selecting the transformer models and how their individual complexity scores are aggregated to get the resulting complexity scores. Our method achieves a best Pearson Correlation of 0.784 in sub-task 1 (single word) and 0.836 in sub-task 2 (multiple word expressions).

VisionScores presents a novel proposal being the first system-segmented image score dataset, aiming to offer structure-rich, high information-density images for machine and deep learning tasks. Delimited to two-handed piano pieces, it was built to consider not only certain graphic similarity but also composition patterns, as this creative process is highly instrument-dependent. It provides two scenarios in relation to composer and composition type. The first, formed by 14k samples, considers works from different authors but the same composition type, specifically, Sonatinas. The latter, consisting of 10.8K samples, presents the opposite case, various composition types from the same author, being the one selected Franz Liszt. All of the 24.8k samples are formatted as grayscale jpg images of 128 times 512 pixels. VisionScores supplies the users not only the formatted samples but the systems' order and pieces' metadata. Moreover, unsegmented full-page scores and the pre-formatted images are included for further analysis.

This paper shows that two commonly used evaluation metrics for generative models, the Fr\'echet Inception Distance (FID) and the Inception Score (IS), are biased -- the expected value of the score computed for a finite sample set is not the true value of the score. Worse, the paper shows that the bias term depends on the particular model being evaluated, so model A may get a better score than model B simply because model A's bias term is smaller. This effect cannot be fixed by evaluating at a fixed number of samples. This means all comparisons using FID or IS as currently computed are unreliable. We then show how to extrapolate the score to obtain an effectively bias-free estimate of scores computed with an infinite number of samples, which we term textrm{FID}_infty and textrm{IS}_infty. In turn, this effectively bias-free estimate requires good estimates of scores with a finite number of samples. We show that using Quasi-Monte Carlo integration notably improves estimates of FID and IS for finite sample sets. Our extrapolated scores are simple, drop-in replacements for the finite sample scores. Additionally, we show that using low discrepancy sequence in GAN training offers small improvements in the resulting generator.

Software projects thrive on the involvement and contributions of individuals from different backgrounds. However, toxic language and negative interactions can hinder the participation and retention of contributors and alienate newcomers. Proactive moderation strategies aim to prevent toxicity from occurring by addressing conversations that have derailed from their intended purpose. This study aims to understand and predict conversational derailment leading to toxicity on GitHub. To facilitate this research, we curate a novel dataset comprising 202 toxic conversations from GitHub with annotated derailment points, along with 696 non-toxic conversations as a baseline. Based on this dataset, we identify unique characteristics of toxic conversations and derailment points, including linguistic markers such as second-person pronouns, negation terms, and tones of Bitter Frustration and Impatience, as well as patterns in conversational dynamics between project contributors and external participants. Leveraging these empirical observations, we propose a proactive moderation approach to automatically detect and address potentially harmful conversations before escalation. By utilizing modern LLMs, we develop a conversation trajectory summary technique that captures the evolution of discussions and identifies early signs of derailment. Our experiments demonstrate that LLM prompts tailored to provide summaries of GitHub conversations achieve 69% F1-Score in predicting conversational derailment, strongly improving over a set of baseline approaches.

In this paper, we investigate how efficiently large language models (LLM) can be trained to check whether an answer is already stored in their parametric memory. We distill an LLM-as-a-judge to compute the IK (I Know) score. We found that this method is particularly beneficial in the context of retrieval-assisted augmented generation (RAG), with a respectable accuracy of 80%. It enables a significant reduction (more than 50%) in the number of search and reranking steps required for certain data sets. We have also introduced the IK score, which serves as a useful tool for characterising datasets by facilitating the classification task. Interestingly, through the inclusion of response tokens as input, our results suggest that only about 20,000 training samples are required to achieve good performance. The central element of this work is the use of a teacher model - the LLM as a judge - to generate training data. We also assess the robustness of the IK classifier by evaluating it with various types of teachers, including both string-based methods and LLMs, with the latter providing better results.

Identifying significant references within the complex interrelations of a citation knowledge graph is challenging, which encompasses connections through citations, authorship, keywords, and other relational attributes. The Paper Source Tracing (PST) task seeks to automate the identification of pivotal references for given scholarly articles utilizing advanced data mining techniques. In the KDD CUP 2024, we design a recommendation-based framework tailored for the PST task. This framework employs the Neural Collaborative Filtering (NCF) model to generate final predictions. To process the textual attributes of the papers and extract input features for the model, we utilize SciBERT, a pre-trained language model. According to the experimental results, our method achieved a score of 0.37814 on the Mean Average Precision (MAP) metric, outperforming baseline models and ranking 11th among all participating teams. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/MyLove-XAB/KDDCupFinal.

The pulp and paper manufacturing industry requires precise quality control to ensure pure, contaminant-free end products suitable for various applications. Fungal spore concentration is a crucial metric that affects paper usability, and current testing methods are labor-intensive with delayed results, hindering real-time control strategies. To address this, a machine learning algorithm utilizing time-series data and domain knowledge was proposed. The optimal model employed Ridge Regression achieving an MSE of 2.90 on training and validation data. This approach could lead to significant improvements in efficiency and sustainability by providing real-time predictions for fungal spore concentrations. This paper showcases a promising method for real-time fungal spore concentration prediction, enabling stringent quality control measures in the pulp-and-paper industry.

Understanding customer sentiments is of paramount importance in marketing strategies today. Not only will it give companies an insight as to how customers perceive their products and/or services, but it will also give them an idea on how to improve their offers. This paper attempts to understand the correlation of different variables in customer reviews on a women clothing e-commerce, and to classify each review whether it recommends the reviewed product or not and whether it consists of positive, negative, or neutral sentiment. To achieve these goals, we employed univariate and multivariate analyses on dataset features except for review titles and review texts, and we implemented a bidirectional recurrent neural network (RNN) with long-short term memory unit (LSTM) for recommendation and sentiment classification. Results have shown that a recommendation is a strong indicator of a positive sentiment score, and vice-versa. On the other hand, ratings in product reviews are fuzzy indicators of sentiment scores. We also found out that the bidirectional LSTM was able to reach an F1-score of 0.88 for recommendation classification, and 0.93 for sentiment classification.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in generalizing to new tasks in a zero-shot or few-shot manner. However, the extent to which LLMs can comprehend user preferences based on their previous behavior remains an emerging and still unclear research question. Traditionally, Collaborative Filtering (CF) has been the most effective method for these tasks, predominantly relying on the extensive volume of rating data. In contrast, LLMs typically demand considerably less data while maintaining an exhaustive world knowledge about each item, such as movies or products. In this paper, we conduct a thorough examination of both CF and LLMs within the classic task of user rating prediction, which involves predicting a user's rating for a candidate item based on their past ratings. We investigate various LLMs in different sizes, ranging from 250M to 540B parameters and evaluate their performance in zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tuning scenarios. We conduct comprehensive analysis to compare between LLMs and strong CF methods, and find that zero-shot LLMs lag behind traditional recommender models that have the access to user interaction data, indicating the importance of user interaction data. However, through fine-tuning, LLMs achieve comparable or even better performance with only a small fraction of the training data, demonstrating their potential through data efficiency.

Diffusion models achieve state-of-the-art performance in various generation tasks. However, their theoretical foundations fall far behind. This paper studies score approximation, estimation, and distribution recovery of diffusion models, when data are supported on an unknown low-dimensional linear subspace. Our result provides sample complexity bounds for distribution estimation using diffusion models. We show that with a properly chosen neural network architecture, the score function can be both accurately approximated and efficiently estimated. Furthermore, the generated distribution based on the estimated score function captures the data geometric structures and converges to a close vicinity of the data distribution. The convergence rate depends on the subspace dimension, indicating that diffusion models can circumvent the curse of data ambient dimensionality.

In many Vietnamese schools, grades are still being inputted into the database manually, which is not only inefficient but also prone to human error. Thus, the automation of this process is highly necessary, which can only be achieved if we can extract information from academic transcripts. In this paper, we test our improved CRNN model in extracting information from 126 transcripts, with 1008 vertical lines, 3859 horizontal lines, and 2139 handwritten test scores. Then, this model is compared to the Baseline model. The results show that our model significantly outperforms the Baseline model with an accuracy of 99.6% in recognizing vertical lines, 100% in recognizing horizontal lines, and 96.11% in recognizing handwritten test scores.

Current rating systems update ratings incrementally and may not always accurately reflect a player's true strength at all times, especially for rapidly improving players or very rusty players. To overcome this, we explore a method to estimate player ratings directly from game moves and clock times. We compiled a benchmark dataset from Lichess, encompassing various time controls and including move sequences and clock times. Our model architecture comprises a CNN to learn positional features, which are then integrated with clock-time data into a bidirectional LSTM, predicting player ratings after each move. The model achieved an MAE of 182 rating points in the test data. Additionally, we applied our model to the 2024 IEEE Big Data Cup Chess Puzzle Difficulty Competition dataset, predicted puzzle ratings and achieved competitive results. This model is the first to use no hand-crafted features to estimate chess ratings and also the first to output a rating prediction for each move. Our method highlights the potential of using move-based rating estimation for enhancing rating systems and potentially other applications such as cheating detection.

The ability to collect a large dataset of human preferences from text-to-image users is usually limited to companies, making such datasets inaccessible to the public. To address this issue, we create a web app that enables text-to-image users to generate images and specify their preferences. Using this web app we build Pick-a-Pic, a large, open dataset of text-to-image prompts and real users' preferences over generated images. We leverage this dataset to train a CLIP-based scoring function, PickScore, which exhibits superhuman performance on the task of predicting human preferences. Then, we test PickScore's ability to perform model evaluation and observe that it correlates better with human rankings than other automatic evaluation metrics. Therefore, we recommend using PickScore for evaluating future text-to-image generation models, and using Pick-a-Pic prompts as a more relevant dataset than MS-COCO. Finally, we demonstrate how PickScore can enhance existing text-to-image models via ranking.

Neural networks excel as function approximators, but their complexity often obscures the types of functions they learn, making it difficult to explain their behavior. To address this, the linearity score lambda(f) is introduced, a simple and interpretable diagnostic that quantifies how well a regression network's output can be mimicked by a linear model. Defined as the R^2 value between the network's predictions and those of a trained linear surrogate, lambda(f) measures linear decodability: the extent to which the network's behavior aligns with a structurally simple model. This framework is evaluated on both synthetic and real-world datasets, using dataset-specific networks and surrogates. High lambda(f) scores reliably indicate alignment with the network's outputs; however, they do not guarantee accuracy with respect to the ground truth. These results highlight the risk of using surrogate fidelity as a proxy for model understanding, especially in high-stakes regression tasks.

It is well known that accurate probabilistic predictors can be trained through empirical risk minimisation with proper scoring rules as loss functions. While such learners capture so-called aleatoric uncertainty of predictions, various machine learning methods have recently been developed with the goal to let the learner also represent its epistemic uncertainty, i.e., the uncertainty caused by a lack of knowledge and data. An emerging branch of the literature proposes the use of a second-order learner that provides predictions in terms of distributions on probability distributions. However, recent work has revealed serious theoretical shortcomings for second-order predictors based on loss minimisation. In this paper, we generalise these findings and prove a more fundamental result: There seems to be no loss function that provides an incentive for a second-order learner to faithfully represent its epistemic uncertainty in the same manner as proper scoring rules do for standard (first-order) learners. As a main mathematical tool to prove this result, we introduce the generalised notion of second-order scoring rules.

Recent advances in retrieval models based on learned sparse representations generated by transformers have led us to, once again, consider score-at-a-time query evaluation techniques for the top-k retrieval problem. Previous studies comparing document-at-a-time and score-at-a-time approaches have consistently found that the former approach yields lower mean query latency, although the latter approach has more predictable query latency. In our experiments with four different retrieval models that exploit representational learning with bags of words, we find that transformers generate "wacky weights" that appear to greatly reduce the opportunities for skipping and early exiting optimizations that lie at the core of standard document-at-a-time techniques. As a result, score-at-a-time approaches appear to be more competitive in terms of query evaluation latency than in previous studies. We find that, if an effectiveness loss of up to three percent can be tolerated, a score-at-a-time approach can yield substantial gains in mean query latency while at the same time dramatically reducing tail latency.

This study investigates the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) for predicting human-perceived misery scores from natural language descriptions of real-world scenarios. The task is framed as a regression problem, where the model assigns a scalar value from 0 to 100 to each input statement. We evaluate multiple prompting strategies, including zero-shot, fixed-context few-shot, and retrieval-based prompting using BERT sentence embeddings. Few-shot approaches consistently outperform zero-shot baselines, underscoring the value of contextual examples in affective prediction. To move beyond static evaluation, we introduce the "Misery Game Show", a novel gamified framework inspired by a television format. It tests LLMs through structured rounds involving ordinal comparison, binary classification, scalar estimation, and feedback-driven reasoning. This setup enables us to assess not only predictive accuracy but also the model's ability to adapt based on corrective feedback. The gamified evaluation highlights the broader potential of LLMs in dynamic emotional reasoning tasks beyond standard regression. Code and data link: https://github.com/abhi1nandy2/Misery_Data_Exps_GitHub

Self-correction is a highly desirable capability of large language models (LLMs), yet it has consistently been found to be largely ineffective in modern LLMs. Existing approaches for training self-correction either require multiple models or rely on a more capable model or other forms of supervision. To this end, we develop a multi-turn online reinforcement learning (RL) approach, SCoRe, that significantly improves an LLM's self-correction ability using entirely self-generated data. To build SCoRe, we first show that variants of supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on offline model-generated correction traces are insufficient for instilling self-correction behavior. In particular, we observe that training via SFT either suffers from a distribution mismatch between the training data and the model's own responses or implicitly prefers only a certain mode of correction behavior that is often not effective at test time. SCoRe addresses these challenges by training under the model's own distribution of self-generated correction traces and using appropriate regularization to steer the learning process into learning a self-correction strategy that is effective at test time as opposed to simply fitting high-reward responses for a given prompt. This regularization prescribes running a first phase of RL on a base model to generate a policy initialization that is less susceptible to collapse and then using a reward bonus to amplify self-correction during training. When applied to Gemini 1.0 Pro and 1.5 Flash models, we find that SCoRe achieves state-of-the-art self-correction performance, improving the base models' self-correction by 15.6% and 9.1% respectively on the MATH and HumanEval benchmarks.