Daily Papers

We present Azimuth, an open-source and easy-to-use tool to perform error analysis for text classification. Compared to other stages of the ML development cycle, such as model training and hyper-parameter tuning, the process and tooling for the error analysis stage are less mature. However, this stage is critical for the development of reliable and trustworthy AI systems. To make error analysis more systematic, we propose an approach comprising dataset analysis and model quality assessment, which Azimuth facilitates. We aim to help AI practitioners discover and address areas where the model does not generalize by leveraging and integrating a range of ML techniques, such as saliency maps, similarity, uncertainty, and behavioral analyses, all in one tool. Our code and documentation are available at github.com/servicenow/azimuth.

With the advent of Transformers, large language models (LLMs) have saturated well-known NLP benchmarks and leaderboards with high aggregate performance. However, many times these models systematically fail on tail data or rare groups not obvious in aggregate evaluation. Identifying such problematic data groups is even more challenging when there are no explicit labels (e.g., ethnicity, gender, etc.) and further compounded for NLP datasets due to the lack of visual features to characterize failure modes (e.g., Asian males, animals indoors, waterbirds on land, etc.). This paper introduces an interactive Systematic Error Analysis and Labeling (\seal) tool that uses a two-step approach to first identify high error slices of data and then, in the second step, introduce methods to give human-understandable semantics to those underperforming slices. We explore a variety of methods for coming up with coherent semantics for the error groups using language models for semantic labeling and a text-to-image model for generating visual features. SEAL toolkit and demo screencast is available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/nazneen/seal.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various domains. Math Word Problems (MWPs) serve as a crucial benchmark for evaluating LLMs' reasoning abilities. While most research primarily focuses on improving accuracy, it often neglects understanding and addressing the underlying patterns of errors. Current error classification methods rely on static and predefined categories, which limit their ability to capture the full spectrum of error patterns in mathematical reasoning. To enable systematic error analysis, we collect error samples from 15 different LLMs of varying sizes across four distinct MWP datasets using multiple sampling strategies. Based on this extensive collection, we introduce MWPES-300K, a comprehensive dataset containing 304,865 error samples that cover diverse error patterns and reasoning paths. To reduce human bias and enable fine-grained analysis of error patterns, we propose a novel framework for automated dynamic error classification in mathematical reasoning. Experimental results demonstrate that dataset characteristics significantly shape error patterns, which evolve from basic to complex manifestations as model capabilities increase. With deeper insights into error patterns, we propose error-aware prompting that incorporates common error patterns as explicit guidance, leading to significant improvements in mathematical reasoning performance.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on complex tasks, including logical puzzle games that require deriving solutions satisfying all constraints. However, whether they can flexibly apply appropriate rules to varying conditions, particularly when faced with non-canonical game variants, remains an open question. Existing corpora focus on popular puzzles like 9x9 Sudoku, risking overfitting to canonical formats and memorization of solution patterns, which can mask deficiencies in understanding novel rules or adapting strategies to new variants. To address this, we introduce HardcoreLogic, a challenging benchmark of over 5,000 puzzles across 10 games, designed to test the robustness of LRMs on the "long-tail" of logical games. HardcoreLogic systematically transforms canonical puzzles through three dimensions: Increased Complexity (IC), Uncommon Elements (UE), and Unsolvable Puzzles (UP), reducing reliance on shortcut memorization. Evaluations on a diverse set of LRMs reveal significant performance drops, even for models achieving top scores on existing benchmarks, indicating heavy reliance on memorized stereotypes. While increased complexity is the dominant source of difficulty, models also struggle with subtle rule variations that do not necessarily increase puzzle difficulty. Our systematic error analysis on solvable and unsolvable puzzles further highlights gaps in genuine reasoning. Overall, HardcoreLogic exposes the limitations of current LRMs and establishes a benchmark for advancing high-level logical reasoning.

Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-4o can handle a wide range of complex tasks with the right prompt. As per token costs are reduced, the advantages of fine-tuning Small Language Models (SLMs) for real-world applications -- faster inference, lower costs -- may no longer be clear. In this work, we present evidence that, for domain-specific tasks that require structured outputs, SLMs still have a quality advantage. We compare fine-tuning an SLM against prompting LLMs on the task of generating low-code workflows in JSON form. We observe that while a good prompt can yield reasonable results, fine-tuning improves quality by 10% on average. We also perform systematic error analysis to reveal model limitations.

While counterfactual examples are useful for analysis and training of NLP models, current generation methods either rely on manual labor to create very few counterfactuals, or only instantiate limited types of perturbations such as paraphrases or word substitutions. We present Polyjuice, a general-purpose counterfactual generator that allows for control over perturbation types and locations, trained by finetuning GPT-2 on multiple datasets of paired sentences. We show that Polyjuice produces diverse sets of realistic counterfactuals, which in turn are useful in various distinct applications: improving training and evaluation on three different tasks (with around 70% less annotation effort than manual generation), augmenting state-of-the-art explanation techniques, and supporting systematic counterfactual error analysis by revealing behaviors easily missed by human experts.

This paper investigates the ability of artificial neural networks to judge the grammatical acceptability of a sentence, with the goal of testing their linguistic competence. We introduce the Corpus of Linguistic Acceptability (CoLA), a set of 10,657 English sentences labeled as grammatical or ungrammatical from published linguistics literature. As baselines, we train several recurrent neural network models on acceptability classification, and find that our models outperform unsupervised models by Lau et al (2016) on CoLA. Error-analysis on specific grammatical phenomena reveals that both Lau et al.'s models and ours learn systematic generalizations like subject-verb-object order. However, all models we test perform far below human level on a wide range of grammatical constructions.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a powerful paradigm for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Unlike traditional RL approaches, RLVR leverages rule-based feedback to guide LLMs in generating and refining complex reasoning chains -- a process critically dependent on effective exploration strategies. While prior work has demonstrated RLVR's empirical success, the fundamental mechanisms governing LLMs' exploration behaviors remain underexplored. This technical report presents a systematic investigation of exploration capacities in RLVR, covering four main aspects: (1) exploration space shaping, where we develop quantitative metrics to characterize LLMs' capability boundaries; (2) entropy-performance exchange, analyzed across training stages, individual instances, and token-level patterns; and (3) RL performance optimization, examining methods to effectively translate exploration gains into measurable improvements. By unifying previously identified insights with new empirical evidence, this work aims to provide a foundational framework for advancing RLVR systems.

Reasoning large language models (RLLMs) have recently demonstrated remarkable capabilities through structured and multi-step reasoning. While prior research has primarily focused on improving their training and inference strategies, their potential for in-context learning (ICL) remains largely underexplored. To fill this gap, we propose Thinking with Nothinking Calibration (JointThinking), a new ICL paradigm that leverages the structured difference between two reasoning modes, i.e., Thinking and Nothinking, to improve reasoning accuracy. Specifically, our method prompts the model to generate two answers in parallel: one in Thinking mode and the other in Nothinking mode. A second round of Thinking is triggered only when the two initial responses are inconsistent, using a single prompt that incorporates the original question and both candidate answers. Since such disagreement occurs infrequently (e.g., only 6\% in GSM8K), our method performs just one round of reasoning in most cases, resulting in minimal latency overhead. Extensive experiments across multiple reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that JointThinking significantly outperforms few-shot chain-of-thought (CoT) and majority voting with improved answer robustness. Moreover, It achieves comparable in-distribution performance to training-based SOTA method, while substantially outperforming on out-of-distribution tasks. We further conduct a systematic analysis of the calibration mechanism, showing that leveraging different reasoning modes consistently lowers the error rate and highlights the value of structural thinking diversity. Additionally, we observe that the performance gap between actual and ideal reasoning narrows as model size increases in the second round of thinking, indicating the strong scalability of our approach. Finally, we discuss current limitations and outline promising directions for future ICL research in RLLMs.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success in various domains but remain vulnerable to adversarial jailbreak attacks. Existing prompt-defense strategies, including parameter-modifying and parameter-free approaches, face limitations in adaptability, interpretability, and customization, constraining their effectiveness against evolving threats. To address these challenges, we propose ShieldLearner, a novel paradigm that mimics human learning in defense. Through trial and error, it autonomously distills attack signatures into a Pattern Atlas and synthesizes defense heuristics into a Meta-analysis Framework, enabling systematic and interpretable threat detection. Furthermore, we introduce Adaptive Adversarial Augmentation to generate adversarial variations of successfully defended prompts, enabling continuous self-improvement without model retraining. In addition to standard benchmarks, we create a hard test set by curating adversarial prompts from the Wildjailbreak dataset, emphasizing more concealed malicious intent. Experimental results show that ShieldLearner achieves a significantly higher defense success rate than existing baselines on both conventional and hard test sets, while also operating with lower computational overhead, making it a practical and efficient solution for real-world adversarial defense.

The development of Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems for low-resource African languages remains challenging due to limited transcribed speech data. While recent advances in large multilingual models like OpenAI's Whisper offer promising pathways for low-resource ASR development, critical questions persist regarding practical deployment requirements. This paper addresses two fundamental concerns for practitioners: determining the minimum data volumes needed for viable performance and characterizing the primary failure modes that emerge in production systems. We evaluate Whisper's performance through comprehensive experiments on two Bantu languages: systematic data scaling analysis on Kinyarwanda using training sets from 1 to 1,400 hours, and detailed error characterization on Kikuyu using 270 hours of training data. Our scaling experiments demonstrate that practical ASR performance (WER < 13\%) becomes achievable with as little as 50 hours of training data, with substantial improvements continuing through 200 hours (WER < 10\%). Complementing these volume-focused findings, our error analysis reveals that data quality issues, particularly noisy ground truth transcriptions, account for 38.6\% of high-error cases, indicating that careful data curation is as critical as data volume for robust system performance. These results provide actionable benchmarks and deployment guidance for teams developing ASR systems across similar low-resource language contexts. We release accompanying and models see https://github.com/SunbirdAI/kinyarwanda-whisper-eval

Time series data from observations of black hole ringdown gravitational waves are often analyzed in the time domain by using damped sinusoid models with acyclic boundary conditions. Data conditioning operations, including downsampling, filtering, and the choice of data segment duration, reduce the computational cost of such analyses and can improve numerical stability. Here we analyze simulated damped sinsuoid signals to illustrate how data conditioning operations, if not carefully applied, can undesirably alter the analysis' posterior distributions. We discuss how currently implemented downsampling and filtering methods, if applied too aggressively, can introduce systematic errors and skew tests of general relativity. These issues arise because current downsampling and filtering methods do not operate identically on the data and model. Alternative downsampling and filtering methods which identically operate on the data and model may be achievable, but we argue that the current operations can still be implemented safely. We also show that our preferred anti-alias filtering technique, which has an instantaneous frequency-domain response at its roll-off frequency, preserves the structure of posterior distributions better than other commonly used filters with transient frequency-domain responses. Lastly, we highlight that exceptionally long data segments may need to be analyzed in cases where thin lines in the noise power spectral density overlap with central signal frequencies. Our findings may be broadly applicable to any analysis of truncated time domain data with acyclic boundary conditions.

We present the measurements and cosmological implications of the galaxy two-point clustering using over 4.7 million unique galaxy and quasar redshifts in the range 0.1<z<2.1 divided into six redshift bins over a sim 7,500 square degree footprint, from the first year of observations with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI Data Release 1). By fitting the full power spectrum, we extend previous DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements to include redshift-space distortions and signals from the matter-radiation equality scale. For the first time, this Full-Shape analysis is blinded at the catalogue-level to avoid confirmation bias and the systematic errors are accounted for at the two-point clustering level, which automatically propagates them into any cosmological parameter. When analysing the data in terms of compressed model-agnostic variables, we obtain a combined precision of 4.7\% on the amplitude of the redshift space distortion signal reaching similar precision with just one year of DESI data than with 20 years of observation from previous generation surveys. We analyse the data to directly constrain the cosmological parameters within the LambdaCDM model using perturbation theory and combine this information with the reconstructed DESI DR1 galaxy BAO. Using a Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Gaussian prior on the baryon density parameter, and a Gaussian prior on the spectral index, we constrain the matter density is Omega_m=0.296pm 0.010 and the Hubble constant H_0=(68.63 pm 0.79)[{rm km, s^{-1}Mpc^{-1}}]. Additionally, we measure the amplitude of clustering sigma_8=0.841 pm 0.034. The DESI DR1 results are in agreement with the LambdaCDM model based on general relativity with parameters consistent with those from Planck. The cosmological interpretation of these results in combination with external datasets are presented in a companion paper.

Critical Error Detection (CED) in machine translation aims to determine whether a translation is safe to use or contains unacceptable deviations in meaning. While the WMT21 English-German CED dataset provided the first benchmark, it is limited in scale, label balance, domain coverage, and temporal freshness. We present SynCED-EnDe, a new resource consisting of 1,000 gold-labeled and 8,000 silver-labeled sentence pairs, balanced 50/50 between error and non-error cases. SynCED-EnDe draws from diverse 2024-2025 sources (StackExchange, GOV.UK) and introduces explicit error subclasses, structured trigger flags, and fine-grained auxiliary judgments (obviousness, severity, localization complexity, contextual dependency, adequacy deviation). These enrichments enable systematic analyses of error risk and intricacy beyond binary detection. The dataset is permanently hosted on GitHub and Hugging Face, accompanied by documentation, annotation guidelines, and baseline scripts. Benchmark experiments with XLM-R and related encoders show substantial performance gains over WMT21 due to balanced labels and refined annotations. We envision SynCED-EnDe as a community resource to advance safe deployment of MT in information retrieval and conversational assistants, particularly in emerging contexts such as wearable AI devices.

A central question in artificial intelligence is the extent to which machine learning models comprehend mathematics. To address this, we propose a novel framework for measuring mathematical reasoning that moves beyond standard benchmarks to diagnose specific failure points. Our method first generates structured, step-by-step reasoning from gpt-3.5-turbo on the GSM8K dataset. We then use a more capable analyst model, gpt-4o-mini, to categorize errors and, crucially, perform an unsupervised clustering of every reasoning sentence to identify emergent "reasoning modes." This analysis reveals a cognitive profile with a stark, nonhuman-like brittleness: while the model achieves near-perfect accuracy on procedural modes like sequential calculation, its performance on modes requiring combinatorial reasoning with restrictions plummets. By identifying and quantifying the reliability of these distinct reasoning skills, our work provides a more granular method to evaluate mathematical comprehension and offers a precise roadmap for developing new capabilities and more reliable future applications.

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly transforming social science research by enabling the automation of labor-intensive tasks like data annotation and text analysis. However, LLM outputs vary significantly depending on the implementation choices made by researchers (e.g., model selection, prompting strategy, or temperature settings). Such variation can introduce systematic biases and random errors, which propagate to downstream analyses and cause Type I, Type II, Type S, or Type M errors. We call this LLM hacking. We quantify the risk of LLM hacking by replicating 37 data annotation tasks from 21 published social science research studies with 18 different models. Analyzing 13 million LLM labels, we test 2,361 realistic hypotheses to measure how plausible researcher choices affect statistical conclusions. We find incorrect conclusions based on LLM-annotated data in approximately one in three hypotheses for state-of-the-art models, and in half the hypotheses for small language models. While our findings show that higher task performance and better general model capabilities reduce LLM hacking risk, even highly accurate models do not completely eliminate it. The risk of LLM hacking decreases as effect sizes increase, indicating the need for more rigorous verification of findings near significance thresholds. Our extensive analysis of LLM hacking mitigation techniques emphasizes the importance of human annotations in reducing false positive findings and improving model selection. Surprisingly, common regression estimator correction techniques are largely ineffective in reducing LLM hacking risk, as they heavily trade off Type I vs. Type II errors. Beyond accidental errors, we find that intentional LLM hacking is unacceptably simple. With few LLMs and just a handful of prompt paraphrases, anything can be presented as statistically significant.