Daily Papers

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

Trajectory-Guided image-to-video (I2V) generation aims to synthesize videos that adhere to user-specified motion instructions. Existing methods typically rely on computationally expensive fine-tuning on scarce annotated datasets. Although some zero-shot methods attempt to trajectory control in the latent space, they may yield unrealistic motion by neglecting 3D perspective and creating a misalignment between the manipulated latents and the network's noise predictions. To address these challenges, we introduce Zo3T, a novel zero-shot test-time-training framework for trajectory-guided generation with three core innovations: First, we incorporate a 3D-Aware Kinematic Projection, leveraging inferring scene depth to derive perspective-correct affine transformations for target regions. Second, we introduce Trajectory-Guided Test-Time LoRA, a mechanism that dynamically injects and optimizes ephemeral LoRA adapters into the denoising network alongside the latent state. Driven by a regional feature consistency loss, this co-adaptation effectively enforces motion constraints while allowing the pre-trained model to locally adapt its internal representations to the manipulated latent, thereby ensuring generative fidelity and on-manifold adherence. Finally, we develop Guidance Field Rectification, which refines the denoising evolutionary path by optimizing the conditional guidance field through a one-step lookahead strategy, ensuring efficient generative progression towards the target trajectory. Zo3T significantly enhances 3D realism and motion accuracy in trajectory-controlled I2V generation, demonstrating superior performance over existing training-based and zero-shot approaches.

Amidst the rapid advancements in generative language models, the investigation of how training data shapes the performance of GPT models is still emerging. This paper presents GPTfluence, a novel approach that leverages a featurized simulation to assess the impact of training examples on the training dynamics of GPT models. Our approach not only traces the influence of individual training instances on performance trajectories, such as loss and other key metrics, on targeted test points but also enables a comprehensive comparison with existing methods across various training scenarios in GPT models, ranging from 14 million to 2.8 billion parameters, across a range of downstream tasks. Contrary to earlier methods that struggle with generalization to new data, GPTfluence introduces a parameterized simulation of training dynamics, demonstrating robust generalization capabilities to unseen training data. This adaptability is evident across both fine-tuning and instruction-tuning scenarios, spanning tasks in natural language understanding and generation. We will make our code and data publicly available.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

The generalization performance of a machine learning algorithm such as a neural network depends in a non-trivial way on the structure of the data distribution. To analyze the influence of data structure on test loss dynamics, we study an exactly solveable model of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on mean square loss which predicts test loss when training on features with arbitrary covariance structure. We solve the theory exactly for both Gaussian features and arbitrary features and we show that the simpler Gaussian model accurately predicts test loss of nonlinear random-feature models and deep neural networks trained with SGD on real datasets such as MNIST and CIFAR-10. We show that the optimal batch size at a fixed compute budget is typically small and depends on the feature correlation structure, demonstrating the computational benefits of SGD with small batch sizes. Lastly, we extend our theory to the more usual setting of stochastic gradient descent on a fixed subsampled training set, showing that both training and test error can be accurately predicted in our framework on real data.

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) highlights the power of scaling test-time compute to achieve strong performance on complex tasks, such as mathematical reasoning and code generation. This raises a critical question: how should model training be modified to optimize performance under a subsequent test-time compute strategy and budget? To explore this, we focus on pass@N, a simple test-time strategy that searches for a correct answer in N independent samples. We show, surprisingly, that training with cross-entropy (CE) loss can be {it misaligned} with pass@N in that pass@N accuracy {it decreases} with longer training. We explain the origins of this misalignment in terms of model overconfidence induced by CE, and experimentally verify our prediction of overconfidence as an impediment to scaling test-time compute via pass@N. Furthermore we suggest a principled, modified training loss that is better aligned to pass@N by limiting model confidence and rescuing pass@N test performance. Our algorithm demonstrates improved mathematical reasoning on MATH and MiniF2F benchmarks under several scenarios: (1) providing answers to math questions; and (2) proving theorems by searching over proof trees of varying shapes. Overall our work underscores the importance of co-designing two traditionally separate phases of LLM development: training-time protocols and test-time search and reasoning strategies.

In unsupervised learning, collecting more data is not always a costly process unlike the training. For example, it is not hard to enlarge the 40GB WebText used for training GPT-2 by modifying its sampling methodology considering how many webpages there are in the Internet. On the other hand, given that training on this dataset already costs tens of thousands of dollars, training on a larger dataset naively is not cost-wise feasible. In this paper, we suggest to train on a larger dataset for only one epoch unlike the current practice, in which the unsupervised models are trained for from tens to hundreds of epochs. Furthermore, we suggest to adjust the model size and the number of iterations to be performed appropriately. We show that the performance of Transformer language model becomes dramatically improved in this way, especially if the original number of epochs is greater. For example, by replacing the training for 10 epochs with the one epoch training, this translates to 1.9-3.3x speedup in wall-clock time in our settings and more if the original number of epochs is greater. Under one epoch training, no overfitting occurs, and regularization method does nothing but slows down the training. Also, the curve of test loss over iterations follows power-law extensively. We compare the wall-clock time of the training of models with different parameter budget under one epoch training, and we show that size/iteration adjustment based on our proposed heuristics leads to 1-2.7x speedup in our cases. With the two methods combined, we achieve 3.3-5.1x speedup. Finally, we speculate various implications of one epoch training and size/iteration adjustment. In particular, based on our analysis we believe that we can reduce the cost to train the state-of-the-art models as BERT and GPT-2 dramatically, maybe even by the factor of 10.

Time Series Forecasting has been an active area of research due to its many applications ranging from network usage prediction, resource allocation, anomaly detection, and predictive maintenance. Numerous publications published in the last five years have proposed diverse sets of objective loss functions to address cases such as biased data, long-term forecasting, multicollinear features, etc. In this paper, we have summarized 14 well-known regression loss functions commonly used for time series forecasting and listed out the circumstances where their application can aid in faster and better model convergence. We have also demonstrated how certain categories of loss functions perform well across all data sets and can be considered as a baseline objective function in circumstances where the distribution of the data is unknown. Our code is available at GitHub: https://github.com/aryan-jadon/Regression-Loss-Functions-in-Time-Series-Forecasting-Tensorflow.

A primary cost driver for training large models is wall-clock training time. We show that popular time estimates based on FLOPs are poor estimates, and construct a more accurate proxy based on memory copies. We show that with some simple accounting, we can estimate the training speed of a transformer model from its hyperparameters. Combined with a scaling law curve like Chinchilla, this lets us estimate the final loss of the model. We fit our estimate to real data with a linear regression, and apply the result to rewrite Chinchilla in terms of a model's estimated training time as opposed to the amount of training data. This gives an expression for the loss in terms of the model's hyperparameters alone. We show that this expression is accurate across a wide range of model hyperparameter values, enabling us to analytically make architectural decisions and train models more efficiently.

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying issue. For example, in military sensor networks, users will want to detect when one or more of the sensors has been compromised, and critically, they will want to know which specific sensors might be compromised. Thus, we first define a formalization of this problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests and propose both non-parametric and parametric statistical tests. For both efficiency and flexibility, we then propose to use a test statistic based on the density model score function (i.e. gradient with respect to the input) -- which can easily compute test statistics for all dimensions in a single forward and backward pass. Any density model could be used for computing the necessary statistics including deep density models such as normalizing flows or autoregressive models. We additionally develop methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data and show results for multiple scenarios using realistic attack models on both simulated and real world data.

We propose that the grokking phenomenon, where the train loss of a neural network decreases much earlier than its test loss, can arise due to a neural network transitioning from lazy training dynamics to a rich, feature learning regime. To illustrate this mechanism, we study the simple setting of vanilla gradient descent on a polynomial regression problem with a two layer neural network which exhibits grokking without regularization in a way that cannot be explained by existing theories. We identify sufficient statistics for the test loss of such a network, and tracking these over training reveals that grokking arises in this setting when the network first attempts to fit a kernel regression solution with its initial features, followed by late-time feature learning where a generalizing solution is identified after train loss is already low. We provide an asymptotic theoretical description of the grokking dynamics in this model using dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) for high dimensional data. We find that the key determinants of grokking are the rate of feature learning -- which can be controlled precisely by parameters that scale the network output -- and the alignment of the initial features with the target function y(x). We argue this delayed generalization arises when (1) the top eigenvectors of the initial neural tangent kernel and the task labels y(x) are misaligned, but (2) the dataset size is large enough so that it is possible for the network to generalize eventually, but not so large that train loss perfectly tracks test loss at all epochs, and (3) the network begins training in the lazy regime so does not learn features immediately. We conclude with evidence that this transition from lazy (linear model) to rich training (feature learning) can control grokking in more general settings, like on MNIST, one-layer Transformers, and student-teacher networks.

Grokking, i.e., test performance keeps improving long after training loss converged, has been recently witnessed in neural network training, making the mechanism of generalization and other emerging capabilities such as reasoning mysterious. While prior studies usually train small models on a few toy or highly-specific tasks for thousands of epochs, we conduct the first study of grokking on checkpoints during one-pass pretraining of a 7B large language model (LLM), i.e., OLMoE. We compute the training loss and evaluate generalization on diverse benchmark tasks, including math reasoning, code generation, and commonsense/domain-specific knowledge retrieval tasks. Our study, for the first time, verifies that grokking still happens in the pretraining of large-scale foundation models, though different data may enter grokking stages asynchronously. We further demystify grokking's "emergence of generalization" by investigating LLM internal dynamics. Specifically, we find that training samples' pathways (i.e., expert choices across layers) evolve from random, instance-specific to more structured and shareable between samples during grokking. Also, the complexity of a sample's pathway reduces despite the converged loss. These indicate a memorization-to-generalization conversion, providing a mechanistic explanation of delayed generalization. In the study, we develop two novel metrics to quantify pathway distance and the complexity of a single pathway. We show their ability to predict the generalization improvement on diverse downstream tasks. They are efficient, simple to compute and solely dependent on training data. Hence, they have practical value for pretraining, enabling us to monitor the generalization performance without finetuning and test. Theoretically, we show that more structured pathways reduce model complexity and improve the generalization bound.

Accelerating the sampling speed of diffusion models remains a significant challenge. Recent score distillation methods distill a heavy teacher model into an one-step student generator, which is optimized by calculating the difference between the two score functions on the samples generated by the student model. However, there is a score mismatch issue in the early stage of the distillation process, because existing methods mainly focus on using the endpoint of pre-trained diffusion models as teacher models, overlooking the importance of the convergence trajectory between the student generator and the teacher model. To address this issue, we extend the score distillation process by introducing the entire convergence trajectory of teacher models and propose Distribution Backtracking Distillation (DisBack) for distilling student generators. DisBask is composed of two stages: Degradation Recording and Distribution Backtracking. Degradation Recording is designed to obtain the convergence trajectory of teacher models, which records the degradation path from the trained teacher model to the untrained initial student generator. The degradation path implicitly represents the intermediate distributions of teacher models. Then Distribution Backtracking trains a student generator to backtrack the intermediate distributions for approximating the convergence trajectory of teacher models. Extensive experiments show that DisBack achieves faster and better convergence than the existing distillation method and accomplishes comparable generation performance. Notably, DisBack is easy to implement and can be generalized to existing distillation methods to boost performance. Our code is publicly available on https://github.com/SYZhang0805/DisBack.

Off-policy learning from multistep returns is crucial for sample-efficient reinforcement learning, but counteracting off-policy bias without exacerbating variance is challenging. Classically, off-policy bias is corrected in a per-decision manner: past temporal-difference errors are re-weighted by the instantaneous Importance Sampling (IS) ratio after each action via eligibility traces. Many off-policy algorithms rely on this mechanism, along with differing protocols for cutting the IS ratios to combat the variance of the IS estimator. Unfortunately, once a trace has been fully cut, the effect cannot be reversed. This has led to the development of credit-assignment strategies that account for multiple past experiences at a time. These trajectory-aware methods have not been extensively analyzed, and their theoretical justification remains uncertain. In this paper, we propose a multistep operator that can express both per-decision and trajectory-aware methods. We prove convergence conditions for our operator in the tabular setting, establishing the first guarantees for several existing methods as well as many new ones. Finally, we introduce Recency-Bounded Importance Sampling (RBIS), which leverages trajectory awareness to perform robustly across lambda-values in an off-policy control task.

Modern deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performances but are typically over-parameterized. The over-parameterization may result in undesirably large generalization error in the absence of other customized training strategies. Recently, a line of research under the name of Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM) has shown that minimizing a sharpness measure, which reflects the geometry of the loss landscape, can significantly reduce the generalization error. However, SAM-like methods incur a two-fold computational overhead of the given base optimizer (e.g. SGD) for approximating the sharpness measure. In this paper, we propose Sharpness-Aware Training for Free, or SAF, which mitigates the sharp landscape at almost zero additional computational cost over the base optimizer. Intuitively, SAF achieves this by avoiding sudden drops in the loss in the sharp local minima throughout the trajectory of the updates of the weights. Specifically, we suggest a novel trajectory loss, based on the KL-divergence between the outputs of DNNs with the current weights and past weights, as a replacement of the SAM's sharpness measure. This loss captures the rate of change of the training loss along the model's update trajectory. By minimizing it, SAF ensures the convergence to a flat minimum with improved generalization capabilities. Extensive empirical results show that SAF minimizes the sharpness in the same way that SAM does, yielding better results on the ImageNet dataset with essentially the same computational cost as the base optimizer.

Training models to effectively use test-time compute is crucial for improving the reasoning performance of LLMs. Current methods mostly do so via fine-tuning on search traces or running RL with 0/1 outcome reward, but do these approaches efficiently utilize test-time compute? Would these approaches continue to scale as the budget improves? In this paper, we try to answer these questions. We formalize the problem of optimizing test-time compute as a meta-reinforcement learning (RL) problem, which provides a principled perspective on spending test-time compute. This perspective enables us to view the long output stream from the LLM as consisting of several episodes run at test time and leads us to use a notion of cumulative regret over output tokens as a way to measure the efficacy of test-time compute. Akin to how RL algorithms can best tradeoff exploration and exploitation over training, minimizing cumulative regret would also provide the best balance between exploration and exploitation in the token stream. While we show that state-of-the-art models do not minimize regret, one can do so by maximizing a dense reward bonus in conjunction with the outcome 0/1 reward RL. This bonus is the ''progress'' made by each subsequent block in the output stream, quantified by the change in the likelihood of eventual success. Using these insights, we develop Meta Reinforcement Fine-Tuning, or MRT, a new class of fine-tuning methods for optimizing test-time compute. MRT leads to a 2-3x relative gain in performance and roughly a 1.5x gain in token efficiency for math reasoning compared to outcome-reward RL.

Although deep learning has produced dazzling successes for applications of image, speech, and video processing in the past few years, most trainings are with suboptimal hyper-parameters, requiring unnecessarily long training times. Setting the hyper-parameters remains a black art that requires years of experience to acquire. This report proposes several efficient ways to set the hyper-parameters that significantly reduce training time and improves performance. Specifically, this report shows how to examine the training validation/test loss function for subtle clues of underfitting and overfitting and suggests guidelines for moving toward the optimal balance point. Then it discusses how to increase/decrease the learning rate/momentum to speed up training. Our experiments show that it is crucial to balance every manner of regularization for each dataset and architecture. Weight decay is used as a sample regularizer to show how its optimal value is tightly coupled with the learning rates and momentums. Files to help replicate the results reported here are available.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) is the problem of updating a pre-trained source model at inference time given test input(s) from a different target domain. Most existing TTA approaches assume the setting in which the target domain is stationary, i.e., all the test inputs come from a single target domain. However, in many practical settings, the test input distribution might exhibit a lifelong/continual shift over time. Moreover, existing TTA approaches also lack the ability to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, which is crucial when distribution shifts occur between the source and target domain. To address these issues, we present PETAL (Probabilistic lifElong Test-time Adaptation with seLf-training prior), which solves lifelong TTA using a probabilistic approach, and naturally results in (1) a student-teacher framework, where the teacher model is an exponential moving average of the student model, and (2) regularizing the model updates at inference time using the source model as a regularizer. To prevent model drift in the lifelong/continual TTA setting, we also propose a data-driven parameter restoration technique which contributes to reducing the error accumulation and maintaining the knowledge of recent domains by restoring only the irrelevant parameters. In terms of predictive error rate as well as uncertainty based metrics such as Brier score and negative log-likelihood, our method achieves better results than the current state-of-the-art for online lifelong test-time adaptation across various benchmarks, such as CIFAR-10C, CIFAR-100C, ImageNetC, and ImageNet3DCC datasets. The source code for our approach is accessible at https://github.com/dhanajitb/petal.

Training deep neural networks (DNNs) is computationally expensive, which is problematic especially when performing duplicated or similar training runs in model ensemble or fine-tuning pre-trained models, for example. Once we have trained one DNN on some dataset, we have its learning trajectory (i.e., a sequence of intermediate parameters during training) which may potentially contain useful information for learning the dataset. However, there has been no attempt to utilize such information of a given learning trajectory for another training. In this paper, we formulate the problem of "transferring" a given learning trajectory from one initial parameter to another one (learning transfer problem) and derive the first algorithm to approximately solve it by matching gradients successively along the trajectory via permutation symmetry. We empirically show that the transferred parameters achieve non-trivial accuracy before any direct training, and can be trained significantly faster than training from scratch.

Continual Pre-Training (CPT) has become a popular and effective method to apply strong foundation models to specific downstream tasks. In this work, we explore the learning dynamics throughout the CPT process for large language models. We specifically focus on how general and downstream domain performance evolves at each training step, with domain performance measured via validation losses. We have observed that the CPT loss curve fundamentally characterizes the transition from one curve to another hidden curve, and could be described by decoupling the effects of distribution shift and learning rate annealing. We derive a CPT scaling law that combines the two factors, enabling the prediction of loss at any (continual) training steps and across learning rate schedules (LRS) in CPT. Our formulation presents a comprehensive understanding of several critical factors in CPT, including loss potential, peak learning rate, training steps, replay ratio, etc. Moreover, our approach can be adapted to customize training hyper-parameters to different CPT goals such as balancing general and domain-specific performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our scaling law holds across various CPT datasets and training hyper-parameters.

This paper introduces a new testbed CLIFT (Clinical Shift) for the clinical domain Question-answering task. The testbed includes 7.5k high-quality question answering samples to provide a diverse and reliable benchmark. We performed a comprehensive experimental study and evaluated several QA deep-learning models under the proposed testbed. Despite impressive results on the original test set, the performance degrades when applied to new test sets, which shows the distribution shift. Our findings emphasize the need for and the potential for increasing the robustness of clinical domain models under distributional shifts. The testbed offers one way to track progress in that direction. It also highlights the necessity of adopting evaluation metrics that consider robustness to natural distribution shifts. We plan to expand the corpus by adding more samples and model results. The full paper and the updated benchmark are available at github.com/openlifescience-ai/clift

Since experiencing domain shifts during test-time is inevitable in practice, test-time adaption (TTA) continues to adapt the model after deployment. Recently, the area of continual and gradual test-time adaptation (TTA) emerged. In contrast to standard TTA, continual TTA considers not only a single domain shift, but a sequence of shifts. Gradual TTA further exploits the property that some shifts evolve gradually over time. Since in both settings long test sequences are present, error accumulation needs to be addressed for methods relying on self-training. In this work, we propose and show that in the setting of TTA, the symmetric cross-entropy is better suited as a consistency loss for mean teachers compared to the commonly used cross-entropy. This is justified by our analysis with respect to the (symmetric) cross-entropy's gradient properties. To pull the test feature space closer to the source domain, where the pre-trained model is well posed, contrastive learning is leveraged. Since applications differ in their requirements, we address several settings, including having source data available and the more challenging source-free setting. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method 'robust mean teacher' (RMT) on the continual and gradual corruption benchmarks CIFAR10C, CIFAR100C, and Imagenet-C. We further consider ImageNet-R and propose a new continual DomainNet-126 benchmark. State-of-the-art results are achieved on all benchmarks.

Evaluating anomaly detection algorithms in time series data is critical as inaccuracies can lead to flawed decision-making in various domains where real-time analytics and data-driven strategies are essential. Traditional performance metrics assume iid data and fail to capture the complex temporal dynamics and specific characteristics of time series anomalies, such as early and delayed detections. We introduce Proximity-Aware Time series anomaly Evaluation (PATE), a novel evaluation metric that incorporates the temporal relationship between prediction and anomaly intervals. PATE uses proximity-based weighting considering buffer zones around anomaly intervals, enabling a more detailed and informed assessment of a detection. Using these weights, PATE computes a weighted version of the area under the Precision and Recall curve. Our experiments with synthetic and real-world datasets show the superiority of PATE in providing more sensible and accurate evaluations than other evaluation metrics. We also tested several state-of-the-art anomaly detectors across various benchmark datasets using the PATE evaluation scheme. The results show that a common metric like Point-Adjusted F1 Score fails to characterize the detection performances well, and that PATE is able to provide a more fair model comparison. By introducing PATE, we redefine the understanding of model efficacy that steers future studies toward developing more effective and accurate detection models.

Diffusion models have emerged as a pivotal advancement in generative models, setting new standards to the quality of the generated instances. In the current paper we aim to underscore a discrepancy between conventional training methods and the desired conditional sampling behavior of these models. While the prevalent classifier-free guidance technique works well, it's not without flaws. At higher values for the guidance scale parameter w, we often get out of distribution samples and mode collapse, whereas at lower values for w we may not get the desired specificity. To address these challenges, we introduce an updated loss function that better aligns training objectives with sampling behaviors. Experimental validation with FID scores on CIFAR-10 elucidates our method's ability to produce higher quality samples with fewer sampling timesteps, and be more robust to the choice of guidance scale w. We also experiment with fine-tuning Stable Diffusion on the proposed loss, to provide early evidence that large diffusion models may also benefit from this refined loss function.

Testing and evaluation is a critical step in the development and deployment of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). Due to the black-box property and various types of CAVs, how to test and evaluate CAVs adaptively remains a major challenge. Many approaches have been proposed to adaptively generate testing scenarios during the testing process. However, most existing approaches cannot be applied to complex scenarios, where the variables needed to define such scenarios are high dimensional. Towards filling this gap, the adaptive testing with sparse control variates method is proposed in this paper. Instead of adaptively generating testing scenarios, our approach evaluates CAVs' performances by adaptively utilizing the testing results. Specifically, each testing result is adjusted using multiple linear regression techniques based on control variates. As the regression coefficients can be adaptively optimized for the CAV under test, using the adjusted results can reduce the estimation variance, compared with using the testing results directly. To overcome the high dimensionality challenge, sparse control variates are utilized only for the critical variables of testing scenarios. To validate the proposed method, the high-dimensional overtaking scenarios are investigated, and the results demonstrate that our approach can further accelerate the evaluation process by about 30 times.

Large language model (LLM)-based agents increasingly rely on tool use to complete real-world tasks. While existing works evaluate the LLMs' tool use capability, they largely focus on the final answers yet overlook the detailed tool usage trajectory, i.e., whether tools are selected, parameterized, and ordered correctly. We introduce TRAJECT-Bench, a trajectory-aware benchmark to comprehensively evaluate LLMs' tool use capability through diverse tasks with fine-grained evaluation metrics. TRAJECT-Bench pairs high-fidelity, executable tools across practical domains with tasks grounded in production-style APIs, and synthesizes trajectories that vary in breadth (parallel calls) and depth (interdependent chains). Besides final accuracy, TRAJECT-Bench also reports trajectory-level diagnostics, including tool selection and argument correctness, and dependency/order satisfaction. Analyses reveal failure modes such as similar tool confusion and parameter-blind selection, and scaling behavior with tool diversity and trajectory length where the bottleneck of transiting from short to mid-length trajectories is revealed, offering actionable guidance for LLMs' tool use.

The advancement in machine learning and artificial intelligence is promoting the testing and deployment of autonomous vehicles (AVs) on public roads. The California Department of Motor Vehicles (CA DMV) has launched the Autonomous Vehicle Tester Program, which collects and releases reports related to Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement (AVD) from autonomous driving. Understanding the causes of AVD is critical to improving the safety and stability of the AV system and provide guidance for AV testing and deployment. In this work, a scalable end-to-end pipeline is constructed to collect, process, model, and analyze the disengagement reports released from 2014 to 2020 using natural language processing deep transfer learning. The analysis of disengagement data using taxonomy, visualization and statistical tests revealed the trends of AV testing, categorized cause frequency, and significant relationships between causes and effects of AVD. We found that (1) manufacturers tested AVs intensively during the Spring and/or Winter, (2) test drivers initiated more than 80% of the disengagement while more than 75% of the disengagement were led by errors in perception, localization & mapping, planning and control of the AV system itself, and (3) there was a significant relationship between the initiator of AVD and the cause category. This study serves as a successful practice of deep transfer learning using pre-trained models and generates a consolidated disengagement database allowing further investigation for other researchers.

This paper reports on the second "Throughput" phase of the Tracking Machine Learning (TrackML) challenge on the Codalab platform. As in the first "Accuracy" phase, the participants had to solve a difficult experimental problem linked to tracking accurately the trajectory of particles as e.g. created at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC): given O(10^5) points, the participants had to connect them into O(10^4) individual groups that represent the particle trajectories which are approximated helical. While in the first phase only the accuracy mattered, the goal of this second phase was a compromise between the accuracy and the speed of inference. Both were measured on the Codalab platform where the participants had to upload their software. The best three participants had solutions with good accuracy and speed an order of magnitude faster than the state of the art when the challenge was designed. Although the core algorithms were less diverse than in the first phase, a diversity of techniques have been used and are described in this paper. The performance of the algorithms are analysed in depth and lessons derived.

Text-guided diffusion models (TDMs) are widely applied but can fail unexpectedly. Common failures include: (i) natural-looking text prompts generating images with the wrong content, or (ii) different random samples of the latent variables that generate vastly different, and even unrelated, outputs despite being conditioned on the same text prompt. In this work, we aim to study and understand the failure modes of TDMs in more detail. To achieve this, we propose SAGE, the first adversarial search method on TDMs that systematically explores the discrete prompt space and the high-dimensional latent space, to automatically discover undesirable behaviors and failure cases in image generation. We use image classifiers as surrogate loss functions during searching, and employ human inspections to validate the identified failures. For the first time, our method enables efficient exploration of both the discrete and intricate human language space and the challenging latent space, overcoming the gradient vanishing problem. Then, we demonstrate the effectiveness of SAGE on five widely used generative models and reveal four typical failure modes: (1) We find a variety of natural text prompts that generate images failing to capture the semantics of input texts. We further discuss the underlying causes and potential solutions based on the results. (2) We find regions in the latent space that lead to distorted images independent of the text prompt, suggesting that parts of the latent space are not well-structured. (3) We also find latent samples that result in natural-looking images unrelated to the text prompt, implying a possible misalignment between the latent and prompt spaces. (4) By appending a single adversarial token embedding to any input prompts, we can generate a variety of specified target objects. Project page: https://sage-diffusion.github.io/

Teams that have trained large Transformer-based models have reported training instabilities at large scale that did not appear when training with the same hyperparameters at smaller scales. Although the causes of such instabilities are of scientific interest, the amount of resources required to reproduce them has made investigation difficult. In this work, we seek ways to reproduce and study training stability and instability at smaller scales. First, we focus on two sources of training instability described in previous work: the growth of logits in attention layers (Dehghani et al., 2023) and divergence of the output logits from the log probabilities (Chowdhery et al., 2022). By measuring the relationship between learning rate and loss across scales, we show that these instabilities also appear in small models when training at high learning rates, and that mitigations previously employed at large scales are equally effective in this regime. This prompts us to investigate the extent to which other known optimizer and model interventions influence the sensitivity of the final loss to changes in the learning rate. To this end, we study methods such as warm-up, weight decay, and the muParam (Yang et al., 2022), and combine techniques to train small models that achieve similar losses across orders of magnitude of learning rate variation. Finally, to conclude our exploration we study two cases where instabilities can be predicted before they emerge by examining the scaling behavior of model activation and gradient norms.

As hyperparameter tuning becomes increasingly costly at scale, efficient tuning methods are essential. Yet principles for guiding hyperparameter tuning remain limited. In this work, we seek to establish such principles by considering a broad range of hyperparameters, including batch size, learning rate, and weight decay. We identify a phenomenon we call trajectory invariance, where pre-training loss curves, gradient noise, and gradient norm exhibit invariance--closely overlapping--with respect to a quantity that combines learning rate and weight decay. This phenomenon effectively reduces the original two-dimensional hyperparameter space to one dimension, yielding an efficient tuning rule: follow the salient direction revealed by trajectory invariance. Furthermore, we refine previous scaling laws and challenge several existing viewpoints. Overall, our work proposes new principles for efficient tuning and inspires future research on scaling laws.

Loss of plasticity is a phenomenon where neural networks become more difficult to train during the course of learning. Continual learning algorithms seek to mitigate this effect by sustaining good predictive performance while maintaining network trainability. We develop new techniques for improving continual learning by first reconsidering how initialization can ensure trainability during early phases of learning. From this perspective, we derive new regularization strategies for continual learning that ensure beneficial initialization properties are better maintained throughout training. In particular, we investigate two new regularization techniques for continual learning: (i) Wasserstein regularization toward the initial weight distribution, which is less restrictive than regularizing toward initial weights; and (ii) regularizing weight matrix singular values, which directly ensures gradient diversity is maintained throughout training. We present an experimental analysis that shows these alternative regularizers can improve continual learning performance across a range of supervised learning tasks and model architectures. The alternative regularizers prove to be less sensitive to hyperparameters while demonstrating better training in individual tasks, sustaining trainability as new tasks arrive, and achieving better generalization performance.

Loss explosions in training deep neural networks can nullify multi-million dollar training runs. Conventional monitoring metrics like weight and gradient norms are often lagging and ambiguous predictors, as their values vary dramatically across different models and even between layers of the same model, making it difficult to establish a unified standard for detecting impending failure. We introduce Spectral Alignment (SA), a novel, theoretically-grounded metric that monitors the distributional alignment between layer inputs and the principal singular vectors of weight matrices. We show that a collapse in the sign diversity of this alignment is a powerful early predictor of representational collapse and training divergence. Empirical results on language models demonstrate that monitoring the SA distribution provides a significantly earlier and clearer warning of loss explosions than traditional scalar metrics. SA's low computational overhead makes it a practical tool for safeguarding model training.

Many existing conditional score-based data generation methods utilize Bayes' theorem to decompose the gradients of a log posterior density into a mixture of scores. These methods facilitate the training procedure of conditional score models, as a mixture of scores can be separately estimated using a score model and a classifier. However, our analysis indicates that the training objectives for the classifier in these methods may lead to a serious score mismatch issue, which corresponds to the situation that the estimated scores deviate from the true ones. Such an issue causes the samples to be misled by the deviated scores during the diffusion process, resulting in a degraded sampling quality. To resolve it, we formulate a novel training objective, called Denoising Likelihood Score Matching (DLSM) loss, for the classifier to match the gradients of the true log likelihood density. Our experimental evidence shows that the proposed method outperforms the previous methods on both Cifar-10 and Cifar-100 benchmarks noticeably in terms of several key evaluation metrics. We thus conclude that, by adopting DLSM, the conditional scores can be accurately modeled, and the effect of the score mismatch issue is alleviated.

Model calibration aims to align confidence with prediction correctness. The Cross-Entropy (CE) loss is widely used for calibrator training, which enforces the model to increase confidence on the ground truth class. However, we find the CE loss has intrinsic limitations. For example, for a narrow misclassification, a calibrator trained by the CE loss often produces high confidence on the wrongly predicted class (e.g., a test sample is wrongly classified and its softmax score on the ground truth class is around 0.4), which is undesirable. In this paper, we propose a new post-hoc calibration objective derived from the aim of calibration. Intuitively, the proposed objective function asks that the calibrator decrease model confidence on wrongly predicted samples and increase confidence on correctly predicted samples. Because a sample itself has insufficient ability to indicate correctness, we use its transformed versions (e.g., rotated, greyscaled and color-jittered) during calibrator training. Trained on an in-distribution validation set and tested with isolated, individual test samples, our method achieves competitive calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets compared with the state of the art. Further, our analysis points out the difference between our method and commonly used objectives such as CE loss and mean square error loss, where the latters sometimes deviates from the calibration aim.

While language models have exceptional capabilities at text generation, they lack a natural inductive bias for emitting numbers and thus struggle in tasks involving reasoning over quantities, especially arithmetics. This has particular relevance in scientific datasets where combinations of text and numerical data are abundant. One fundamental limitation is the nature of the CE loss, which assumes a nominal (categorical) scale and thus cannot convey proximity between generated number tokens. As a remedy, we here present two versions of a number token loss. The first is based on an L_p loss between the ground truth token value and the weighted sum of the predicted class probabilities. The second loss minimizes the Wasserstein-1 distance between the distribution of the predicted output probabilities and the ground truth distribution. These regression-like losses can easily be added to any language model and extend the CE objective during training. We compare the proposed schemes on a mathematics dataset against existing tokenization, encoding, and decoding schemes for improving number representation in language models. Our results reveal a significant improvement in numerical accuracy when equipping a standard T5 model with the proposed loss schemes.

The ultimate goal of Dataset Distillation is to synthesize a small synthetic dataset such that a model trained on this synthetic set will perform equally well as a model trained on the full, real dataset. Until now, no method of Dataset Distillation has reached this completely lossless goal, in part due to the fact that previous methods only remain effective when the total number of synthetic samples is extremely small. Since only so much information can be contained in such a small number of samples, it seems that to achieve truly loss dataset distillation, we must develop a distillation method that remains effective as the size of the synthetic dataset grows. In this work, we present such an algorithm and elucidate why existing methods fail to generate larger, high-quality synthetic sets. Current state-of-the-art methods rely on trajectory-matching, or optimizing the synthetic data to induce similar long-term training dynamics as the real data. We empirically find that the training stage of the trajectories we choose to match (i.e., early or late) greatly affects the effectiveness of the distilled dataset. Specifically, early trajectories (where the teacher network learns easy patterns) work well for a low-cardinality synthetic set since there are fewer examples wherein to distribute the necessary information. Conversely, late trajectories (where the teacher network learns hard patterns) provide better signals for larger synthetic sets since there are now enough samples to represent the necessary complex patterns. Based on our findings, we propose to align the difficulty of the generated patterns with the size of the synthetic dataset. In doing so, we successfully scale trajectory matching-based methods to larger synthetic datasets, achieving lossless dataset distillation for the very first time. Code and distilled datasets are available at https://gzyaftermath.github.io/DATM.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) seeks to tackle potential distribution shifts between training and testing data by adapting a given model w.r.t. any testing sample. This task is particularly important for deep models when the test environment changes frequently. Although some recent attempts have been made to handle this task, we still face two practical challenges: 1) existing methods have to perform backward computation for each test sample, resulting in unbearable prediction cost to many applications; 2) while existing TTA solutions can significantly improve the test performance on out-of-distribution data, they often suffer from severe performance degradation on in-distribution data after TTA (known as catastrophic forgetting). In this paper, we point out that not all the test samples contribute equally to model adaptation, and high-entropy ones may lead to noisy gradients that could disrupt the model. Motivated by this, we propose an active sample selection criterion to identify reliable and non-redundant samples, on which the model is updated to minimize the entropy loss for test-time adaptation. Furthermore, to alleviate the forgetting issue, we introduce a Fisher regularizer to constrain important model parameters from drastic changes, where the Fisher importance is estimated from test samples with generated pseudo labels. Extensive experiments on CIFAR-10-C, ImageNet-C, and ImageNet-R verify the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Reasoning models improve their problem-solving ability through inference-time scaling, allocating more compute via longer token budgets. Identifying which reasoning traces are likely to succeed remains a key opportunity: reliably predicting productive paths can substantially reduce wasted computation and improve overall efficiency. We introduce Latent-Trajectory signals that characterize the temporal evolution of a model's internal representations during the generation of intermediate reasoning tokens. By measuring the overall change in latent representations between the start and end of reasoning, the change accumulated across intermediate steps, and the extent to which these changes advance toward the final state, we show that these signals predict solution accuracy more reliably than both cross-layer metrics and output-based confidence measures. When used to guide answer selection across multiple sampled generations, Latent-Trajectory signals make test-time scaling more effective and efficient than majority voting, reducing token usage by up to 70% while preserving and even improving accuracy by 2.6% on average. Moreover, these predictive signals often emerge early in the reasoning trace, enabling early selection and allocation of compute to the most promising candidates. Our findings contribute not only practical strategies for inference-time efficiency, but also a deeper interpretability perspective on how reasoning processes are represented and differentiated in latent space.

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease. Current methods for prognosis or disease trajectory forecasting often require domain knowledge and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many prediction problem. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner -- we predict prognosis with two transformer-based components that share information with each other. The first transformer in this framework aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second one leverages its internal states as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary clinical data. The temporal nature of the problem is modeled within the transformer states, allowing us to treat the forecasting problem as a multi-task classification, for which we propose a novel loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes and forecasting Alzheimer's disease clinical status directly from raw multi-modal data. The proposed method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art baselines with respect to performance and calibration, both of which are needed for real-world applications. An open-source implementation of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/CLIMATv2.

We study short-horizon forecasting of weekly terrorism incident counts using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD, 1970--2016). We build a reproducible pipeline with fixed time-based splits and evaluate a Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) against strong classical anchors (seasonal-naive, linear/ARIMA) and a deep LSTM-Attention baseline. On the held-out test set, the BiLSTM attains RMSE 6.38, outperforming LSTM-Attention (9.19; +30.6\%) and a linear lag-regression baseline (+35.4\% RMSE gain), with parallel improvements in MAE and MAPE. Ablations varying temporal memory, training-history length, spatial grain, lookback size, and feature groups show that models trained on long historical data generalize best; a moderate lookback (20--30 weeks) provides strong context; and bidirectional encoding is critical for capturing both build-up and aftermath patterns within the window. Feature-group analysis indicates that short-horizon structure (lagged counts and rolling statistics) contributes most, with geographic and casualty features adding incremental lift. We release code, configs, and compact result tables, and provide a data/ethics statement documenting GTD licensing and research-only use. Overall, the study offers a transparent, baseline-beating reference for GTD incident forecasting.

Learning rate scheduling is essential in transformer training, where the final annealing plays a crucial role in getting the best performance. However, the mechanisms behind this cooldown phase, with its characteristic drop in loss, remain poorly understood. To address this, we provide a comprehensive analysis focusing solely on the cooldown phase in the Warmup-Stable-Decay (WSD) learning rate scheduler. Our analysis reveals that different cooldown shapes reveal a fundamental bias-variance trade-off in the resulting models, with shapes that balance exploration and exploitation consistently outperforming alternatives. Similarly, we find substantial performance variations x2013 comparable to those from cooldown shape selection x2013 when tuning AdamW hyperparameters. Notably, we observe consistent improvements with higher values of beta_2 during cooldown. From a loss landscape perspective, we provide visualizations of the landscape during cooldown, supporting the river valley loss perspective empirically. These findings offer practical recommendations for configuring the WSD scheduler in transformer training, emphasizing the importance of optimizing the cooldown phase alongside traditional hyperparameter tuning.

Continuously adapting pre-trained models to local data on resource constrained edge devices is the last mile for model deployment. However, as models increase in size and depth, backpropagation requires a large amount of memory, which becomes prohibitive for edge devices. In addition, most existing low power neural processing engines (e.g., NPUs, DSPs, MCUs, etc.) are designed as fixed-point inference accelerators, without training capabilities. Forward gradients, solely based on directional derivatives computed from two forward calls, have been recently used for model training, with substantial savings in computation and memory. However, the performance of quantized training with fixed-point forward gradients remains unclear. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of on-device training using fixed-point forward gradients, by conducting comprehensive experiments across a variety of deep learning benchmark tasks in both vision and audio domains. We propose a series of algorithm enhancements that further reduce the memory footprint, and the accuracy gap compared to backpropagation. An empirical study on how training with forward gradients navigates in the loss landscape is further explored. Our results demonstrate that on the last mile of model customization on edge devices, training with fixed-point forward gradients is a feasible and practical approach.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) aims to address the distribution shift between the training and test data with only unlabeled data at test time. Existing TTA methods often focus on improving recognition performance specifically for test data associated with classes in the training set. However, during the open-world inference process, there are inevitably test data instances from unknown classes, commonly referred to as outliers. This paper pays attention to the problem that conducts both sample recognition and outlier rejection during inference while outliers exist. To address this problem, we propose a new approach called STAble Memory rePlay (STAMP), which performs optimization over a stable memory bank instead of the risky mini-batch. In particular, the memory bank is dynamically updated by selecting low-entropy and label-consistent samples in a class-balanced manner. In addition, we develop a self-weighted entropy minimization strategy that assigns higher weight to low-entropy samples. Extensive results demonstrate that STAMP outperforms existing TTA methods in terms of both recognition and outlier detection performance. The code is released at https://github.com/yuyongcan/STAMP.

: Deep learning methodologies have been used to create applications that can cause threats to privacy, democracy and national security and could be used to further amplify malicious activities. One of those deep learning-powered applications in recent times is synthesized videos of famous personalities. According to Forbes, Generative Adversarial Networks(GANs) generated fake videos growing exponentially every year and the organization known as Deeptrace had estimated an increase of deepfakes by 84% from the year 2018 to 2019. They are used to generate and modify human faces, where most of the existing fake videos are of prurient non-consensual nature, of which its estimates to be around 96% and some carried out impersonating personalities for cyber crime. In this paper, available video datasets are identified and a pretrained model BlazeFace is used to detect faces, and a ResNet and Xception ensembled architectured neural network trained on the dataset to achieve the goal of detection of fake faces in videos. The model is optimized over a loss value and log loss values and evaluated over its F1 score. Over a sample of data, it is observed that focal loss provides better accuracy, F1 score and loss as the gamma of the focal loss becomes a hyper parameter. This provides a k-folded accuracy of around 91% at its peak in a training cycle with the real world accuracy subjected to change over time as the model decays.

Recent years have seen considerable progress in the continual training of deep neural networks, predominantly thanks to approaches that add replay or regularization terms to the loss function to approximate the joint loss over all tasks so far. However, we show that even with a perfect approximation to the joint loss, these approaches still suffer from temporary but substantial forgetting when starting to train on a new task. Motivated by this 'stability gap', we propose that continual learning strategies should focus not only on the optimization objective, but also on the way this objective is optimized. While there is some continual learning work that alters the optimization trajectory (e.g., using gradient projection techniques), this line of research is positioned as alternative to improving the optimization objective, while we argue it should be complementary. To evaluate the merits of our proposition, we plan to combine replay-approximated joint objectives with gradient projection-based optimization routines to test whether the addition of the latter provides benefits in terms of (1) alleviating the stability gap, (2) increasing the learning efficiency and (3) improving the final learning outcome.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

The proper design and architecture of testing of machine learning models, especially in their application to quantitative finance problems, is crucial. The most important in this process is selecting an adequate loss function used for training, validation, estimation purposes, and tuning of hyperparameters. Therefore, in this research, through empirical experiments on equity and cryptocurrency assets, we introduce the Mean Absolute Directional Loss (MADL) function which is more adequate for optimizing forecast-generating models used in algorithmic investment strategies. The MADL function results are compared for Transformer and LSTM models and we show that almost in every case Transformer results are significantly better than those obtained with LSTM.

In this work, we propose a novel Trajectory Score Matching (TSM) method that aims to solve the pseudo ground truth inconsistency problem caused by the accumulated error in Interval Score Matching (ISM) when using the Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models (DDIM) inversion process. Unlike ISM which adopts the inversion process of DDIM to calculate on a single path, our TSM method leverages the inversion process of DDIM to generate two paths from the same starting point for calculation. Since both paths start from the same starting point, TSM can reduce the accumulated error compared to ISM, thus alleviating the problem of pseudo ground truth inconsistency. TSM enhances the stability and consistency of the model's generated paths during the distillation process. We demonstrate this experimentally and further show that ISM is a special case of TSM. Furthermore, to optimize the current multi-stage optimization process from high-resolution text to 3D generation, we adopt Stable Diffusion XL for guidance. In response to the issues of abnormal replication and splitting caused by unstable gradients during the 3D Gaussian splatting process when using Stable Diffusion XL, we propose a pixel-by-pixel gradient clipping method. Extensive experiments show that our model significantly surpasses the state-of-the-art models in terms of visual quality and performance. Code: https://github.com/xingy038/Dreamer-XL.

This paper investigates the issue of an adequate loss function in the optimization of machine learning models used in the forecasting of financial time series for the purpose of algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) construction. We propose the Mean Absolute Directional Loss (MADL) function, solving important problems of classical forecast error functions in extracting information from forecasts to create efficient buy/sell signals in algorithmic investment strategies. Finally, based on the data from two different asset classes (cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin and commodities: Crude Oil), we show that the new loss function enables us to select better hyperparameters for the LSTM model and obtain more efficient investment strategies, with regard to risk-adjusted return metrics on the out-of-sample data.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable progress in complex reasoning tasks, largely enabled by test-time scaling (TTS) paradigms that allocate additional compute during inference. Among these, external TTS (particularly the Best-of-N selection paradigm) yields scalable performance improvements by selecting from multiple independently generated reasoning trajectories. However, this approach faces key limitations: (i) the high computational overhead of deploying process reward models, (ii) the underutilization of the LLM's intrinsic latent representations. We introduce TrajSelector, an efficient and effective Best-of-N framework that exploit the hidden states in the sampler LLM for process-level scoring. A lightweight verifier (with only 0.6B parameters) evaluates the quality of step-wise trajectory, and then aggregates these scores to identify the optimal reasoning trajectory. Our framework employs a fully data-driven, end-to-end training recipe that eliminates reliance on massive step-level annotations. Experiential results across five benchmarks demonstrate that TrajSelector delivers consistent performance gains. In Best-of-32 settings, it surpasses majority voting by 4.61% accuracy and outperforms existing process reward models by 4.31% to 12.21%, all while maintaining lower inference costs.

Foundation models (FMs) trained on electronic health records (EHRs) have shown strong performance on a range of clinical prediction tasks. However, adapting these models to local health systems remains challenging due to limited data availability and resource constraints. In this study, we investigated what these models learn and evaluated the transferability of an FM trained on MIMIC-IV to an institutional EHR dataset at the University of Chicago Medical Center. We assessed their ability to identify outlier patients and examined representation-space patient trajectories in relation to future clinical outcomes. We also evaluated the performance of supervised fine-tuned classifiers on both source and target datasets. Our findings offer insights into the adaptability of FMs across different healthcare systems, highlight considerations for their effective implementation, and provide an empirical analysis of the underlying factors that contribute to their predictive performance.

Outliers introduce significant training challenges in neural networks by propagating erroneous gradients, which can degrade model performance and generalization. We propose the Z-Error Loss, a statistically principled approach that minimizes outlier influence during training by masking the contribution of data points identified as out-of-distribution within each batch. This method leverages batch-level statistics to automatically detect and exclude anomalous samples, allowing the model to focus its learning on the true underlying data structure. Our approach is robust, adaptive to data quality, and provides valuable diagnostics for data curation and cleaning.

When training or evaluating deep learning models, two essential parts are picking the proper loss function and deciding on performance metrics. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of the most common loss functions and metrics used across many different types of deep learning tasks, from general tasks such as regression and classification to more specific tasks in Computer Vision and Natural Language Processing. We introduce the formula for each loss and metric, discuss their strengths and limitations, and describe how these methods can be applied to various problems within deep learning. This work can serve as a reference for researchers and practitioners in the field, helping them make informed decisions when selecting the most appropriate loss function and performance metrics for their deep learning projects.

The loss landscape of neural networks is a critical aspect of their training, and understanding its properties is essential for improving their performance. In this paper, we investigate how the loss surface changes when the sample size increases, a previously unexplored issue. We theoretically analyze the convergence of the loss landscape in a fully connected neural network and derive upper bounds for the difference in loss function values when adding a new object to the sample. Our empirical study confirms these results on various datasets, demonstrating the convergence of the loss function surface for image classification tasks. Our findings provide insights into the local geometry of neural loss landscapes and have implications for the development of sample size determination techniques.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) addresses distribution shifts for streaming test data in unsupervised settings. Currently, most TTA methods can only deal with minor shifts and rely heavily on heuristic and empirical studies. To advance TTA under domain shifts, we propose the novel problem setting of active test-time adaptation (ATTA) that integrates active learning within the fully TTA setting. We provide a learning theory analysis, demonstrating that incorporating limited labeled test instances enhances overall performances across test domains with a theoretical guarantee. We also present a sample entropy balancing for implementing ATTA while avoiding catastrophic forgetting (CF). We introduce a simple yet effective ATTA algorithm, known as SimATTA, using real-time sample selection techniques. Extensive experimental results confirm consistency with our theoretical analyses and show that the proposed ATTA method yields substantial performance improvements over TTA methods while maintaining efficiency and shares similar effectiveness to the more demanding active domain adaptation (ADA) methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/divelab/ATTA

The rapid advancements in Autonomous Driving Systems (ADS) have necessitated robust software testing to ensure safety and reliability. However, automating the generation of scalable and concrete test scenarios remains a significant challenge. Current scenario-based test case generation methods often face limitations, such as unrealistic scenes and inaccurate vehicle trajectories. These challenges largely result from the loss of map information during data extraction and the lack of an effective verification mechanism to mitigate hallucinations in large language models (LLMs). This paper introduces TRACE, a scenario-based ADS Test case Generation framework for Critical Scenarios. By leveraging multimodal data to extract challenging scenarios from real-world car crash reports, TRACE constructs numerous critical test cases with less data, significantly enhancing ADS bug detection efficiency. Using in-context learning, chain-of-thought prompting, and self-validation approaches, we use LLMs to extract environmental and road network information from crash reports. For vehicle trajectory planning, data containing map information and vehicle coordinates serves as a knowledge base to build a ChatGPT-based LLM with path-planning capabilities, which we named TrackMate. Based on 50 existing crash reports, our approach successfully tested three ADS models across two simulation platforms, MetaDrive and BeamNG. Of the 290 constructed test scenarios, 127 are identified as critical, as they resulted in vehicle collisions. Additionally, user feedback reveals that TRACE demonstrates superior scenario reconstruction accuracy, with 77.5% of the scenarios being rated as 'mostly or 'totally' consistent, compared to only 27% for the most related SOTA, LCTGen.

The detailed images produced by Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) provide life-critical information for the diagnosis and treatment of prostate cancer. To provide standardized acquisition, interpretation and usage of the complex MRI images, the PI-RADS v2 guideline was proposed. An automated segmentation following the guideline facilitates consistent and precise lesion detection, staging and treatment. The guideline recommends a division of the prostate into four zones, PZ (peripheral zone), TZ (transition zone), DPU (distal prostatic urethra) and AFS (anterior fibromuscular stroma). Not every zone shares a boundary with the others and is present in every slice. Further, the representations captured by a single model might not suffice for all zones. This motivated us to design a dual-branch convolutional neural network (CNN), where each branch captures the representations of the connected zones separately. Further, the representations from different branches act complementary to each other at the second stage of training, where they are fine-tuned through an unsupervised loss. The loss penalises the difference in predictions from the two branches for the same class. We also incorporate multi-task learning in our framework to further improve the segmentation accuracy. The proposed approach improves the segmentation accuracy of the baseline (mean absolute symmetric distance) by 7.56%, 11.00%, 58.43% and 19.67% for PZ, TZ, DPU and AFS zones respectively.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) spend substantial test-time compute on long chain-of-thought (CoT) traces, but what *characterizes* an effective CoT remains unclear. While prior work reports gains from lengthening CoTs and increasing review (revisiting earlier steps) via appended *wait* tokens, recent studies suggest that shorter thinking can outperform longer traces. We therefore conduct a systematic evaluation across ten LRMs on math and scientific reasoning. Contrary to the "longer-is-better" narrative, we find that both naive CoT lengthening and increased review are associated with *lower* accuracy. As CoT unfolds step by step, token-level metrics can conflate verbosity with process quality. We introduce a graph view of CoT to extract structure and identify a single statistic-the *Failed-Step Fraction (FSF)*, the fraction of steps in abandoned branches-that consistently outpredicts length and review ratio for correctness across models. To probe causality, we design two interventions. First, we rank candidate CoTs by each metric at test time, where FSF yields the largest pass@1 gains; second, we edit CoTs to remove failed branches, which significantly improves accuracy, indicating that failed branches bias subsequent reasoning. Taken together, these results characterize effective CoTs as those that *fail less* and support *structure-aware* test-time scaling over indiscriminately generating long CoT.

The prior drift is crucial in Continual Test-Time Adaptation (CTTA) methods that only use unlabeled test data, as it can cause significant error propagation. In this paper, we introduce VCoTTA, a variational Bayesian approach to measure uncertainties in CTTA. At the source stage, we transform a pre-trained deterministic model into a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) via a variational warm-up strategy, injecting uncertainties into the model. During the testing time, we employ a mean-teacher update strategy using variational inference for the student model and exponential moving average for the teacher model. Our novel approach updates the student model by combining priors from both the source and teacher models. The evidence lower bound is formulated as the cross-entropy between the student and teacher models, along with the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence of the prior mixture. Experimental results on three datasets demonstrate the method's effectiveness in mitigating prior drift within the CTTA framework.

Test-time scaling (TTS), which involves dynamic allocation of compute during inference, offers a promising way to improve reasoning in large language models. While existing TTS methods work well, they often rely on long decoding paths or require a large number of samples to be generated, increasing the token usage and inference latency. We observe the surprising fact that for reasoning tasks, shorter traces are much more likely to be correct than longer ones. Motivated by this, we introduce First Finish Search (FFS), a training-free parallel decoding strategy that launches n independent samples and returns as soon as any one completes. We evaluate FFS alongside simple decoding, beam search, majority voting, and budget forcing on four reasoning models (DeepSeek-R1, R1-Distill-Qwen-32B, QwQ-32B and Phi-4-Reasoning-Plus) and across four datasets (AIME24, AIME25-I, AIME25-II and GPQA Diamond). With DeepSeek-R1, FFS achieves 82.23% accuracy on the AIME datasets, a 15% improvement over DeepSeek-R1's standalone accuracy, nearly matching OpenAI's o4-mini performance. Our theoretical analysis explains why stopping at the shortest trace is likely to yield a correct answer and identifies the conditions under which early stopping may be suboptimal. The elegance and simplicity of FFS demonstrate that straightforward TTS strategies can perform remarkably well, revealing the untapped potential of simple approaches at inference time.

Unsupervised anomaly detection (UAD) is a widely adopted approach in industry due to rare anomaly occurrences and data imbalance. A desirable characteristic of an UAD model is contained generalization ability which excels in the reconstruction of seen normal patterns but struggles with unseen anomalies. Recent studies have pursued to contain the generalization capability of their UAD models in reconstruction from different perspectives, such as design of neural network (NN) structure and training strategy. In contrast, we note that containing of generalization ability in reconstruction can also be obtained simply from steep-shaped loss landscape. Motivated by this, we propose a loss landscape sharpening method by amplifying the reconstruction loss, dubbed Loss AMPlification (LAMP). LAMP deforms the loss landscape into a steep shape so the reconstruction error on unseen anomalies becomes greater. Accordingly, the anomaly detection performance is improved without any change of the NN architecture. Our findings suggest that LAMP can be easily applied to any reconstruction error metrics in UAD settings where the reconstruction model is trained with anomaly-free samples only.

Quality management and assurance is key for space agencies to guarantee the success of space missions, which are high-risk and extremely costly. In this paper, we present a system to generate quizzes, a common resource to evaluate the effectiveness of training sessions, from documents about quality assurance procedures in the Space domain. Our system leverages state of the art auto-regressive models like T5 and BART to generate questions, and a RoBERTa model to extract answers for such questions, thus verifying their suitability.

One of the most profound challenges of modern machine learning is performing well on the long-tail of rare and underrepresented features. Large general-purpose models are trained for many tasks, but work best on high-frequency use cases. After training, it is hard to adapt a model to perform well on specific use cases underrepresented in the training corpus. Relying on prompt engineering or few-shot examples to maximize the output quality on a particular test case can be frustrating, as models can be highly sensitive to small changes, react in unpredicted ways or rely on a fixed system prompt for maintaining performance. In this work, we ask: "Can we optimize our training protocols to both improve controllability and performance on underrepresented use cases at inference time?" We revisit the divide between training and inference techniques to improve long-tail performance while providing users with a set of control levers the model is trained to be responsive to. We create a detailed taxonomy of data characteristics and task provenance to explicitly control generation attributes and implicitly condition generations at inference time. We fine-tune a base model to infer these markers automatically, which makes them optional at inference time. This principled and flexible approach yields pronounced improvements in performance, especially on examples from the long tail of the training distribution. While we observe an average lift of 5.7% win rates in open-ended generation quality with our markers, we see over 9.1% gains in underrepresented domains. We also observe relative lifts of up to 14.1% on underrepresented tasks like CodeRepair and absolute improvements of 35.3% on length instruction following evaluations.

Generalizing deep learning models to unknown target domain distribution with low latency has motivated research into test-time training/adaptation (TTT/TTA). Existing approaches often focus on improving test-time training performance under well-curated target domain data. As figured out in this work, many state-of-the-art methods fail to maintain the performance when the target domain is contaminated with strong out-of-distribution (OOD) data, a.k.a. open-world test-time training (OWTTT). The failure is mainly due to the inability to distinguish strong OOD samples from regular weak OOD samples. To improve the robustness of OWTTT we first develop an adaptive strong OOD pruning which improves the efficacy of the self-training TTT method. We further propose a way to dynamically expand the prototypes to represent strong OOD samples for an improved weak/strong OOD data separation. Finally, we regularize self-training with distribution alignment and the combination yields the state-of-the-art performance on 5 OWTTT benchmarks. The code is available at https://github.com/Yushu-Li/OWTTT.

In most machine learning tasks, we evaluate a model M on a given data population S by measuring a population-level metric F(S;M). Examples of such evaluation metric F include precision/recall for (binary) recognition, the F1 score for multi-class classification, and the BLEU metric for language generation. On the other hand, the model M is trained by optimizing a sample-level loss G(S_t;M) at each learning step t, where S_t is a subset of S (a.k.a. the mini-batch). Popular choices of G include cross-entropy loss, the Dice loss, and sentence-level BLEU scores. A fundamental assumption behind this paradigm is that the mean value of the sample-level loss G, if averaged over all possible samples, should effectively represent the population-level metric F of the task, such as, that E[ G(S_t;M) ] approx F(S;M). In this paper, we systematically investigate the above assumption in several NLP tasks. We show, both theoretically and experimentally, that some popular designs of the sample-level loss G may be inconsistent with the true population-level metric F of the task, so that models trained to optimize the former can be substantially sub-optimal to the latter, a phenomenon we call it, Simpson's bias, due to its deep connections with the classic paradox known as Simpson's reversal paradox in statistics and social sciences.

Training a large and state-of-the-art machine learning model typically necessitates the use of large-scale datasets, which, in turn, makes the training and parameter-tuning process expensive and time-consuming. Some researchers opt to distil information from real-world datasets into tiny and compact synthetic datasets while maintaining their ability to train a well-performing model, hence proposing a data-efficient method known as Dataset Distillation (DD). Despite recent progress in this field, existing methods still underperform and cannot effectively replace large datasets. In this paper, unlike previous methods that focus solely on improving the efficacy of student distillation, we are the first to recognize the important interplay between expert and student. We argue the significant impact of expert smoothness when employing more potent expert trajectories in subsequent dataset distillation. Based on this, we introduce the integration of clipping loss and gradient penalty to regulate the rate of parameter changes in expert trajectories. Furthermore, in response to the sensitivity exhibited towards randomly initialized variables during distillation, we propose representative initialization for synthetic dataset and balanced inner-loop loss. Finally, we present two enhancement strategies, namely intermediate matching loss and weight perturbation, to mitigate the potential occurrence of cumulative errors. We conduct extensive experiments on datasets of different scales, sizes, and resolutions. The results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms prior methods.

Exploration is essential in modern learning, from reinforcement learning environments with small neural policies to large language models (LLMs). Existing work, such as DPO, leverages full sequence log-likelihoods to capture an entire trajectory of the model's decisions, while methods like GRPO aggregate per-token ratios into a trajectory-level update. However, both often limit exploration on long-horizon tasks. We introduce History-Aggregated Exploratory Policy Optimization (HAEPO), a history-aware exploratory loss to combat these shortcomings. HAEPO compresses each trajectory into the sum of its logarithmic probabilities (a cumulative logarithmic likelihood), and applies a Plackett-Luce softmax across trajectories to obtain normalized weights proportional to their returns, thus encouraging broader exploration. We add entropy regularization to stabilize the aggressive updates to prevent premature collapse and a soft KL penalty relative to a frozen copy of the previous (reference) policy. Empirically, HAEPO converges fast, explores thoroughly, aligns closely with true rewards, and demonstrates robust learning behavior better or at par with PPO, GRPO, and DPO across diverse tasks. Thus, HAEPO provides a stable and interpretable framework by explicitly leveraging full-trajectory history while balancing exploration and stability.

We initiate the study of proper losses for evaluating generative models in the discrete setting. Unlike traditional proper losses, we treat both the generative model and the target distribution as black-boxes, only assuming ability to draw i.i.d. samples. We define a loss to be black-box proper if the generative distribution that minimizes expected loss is equal to the target distribution. Using techniques from statistical estimation theory, we give a general construction and characterization of black-box proper losses: they must take a polynomial form, and the number of draws from the model and target distribution must exceed the degree of the polynomial. The characterization rules out a loss whose expectation is the cross-entropy between the target distribution and the model. By extending the construction to arbitrary sampling schemes such as Poisson sampling, however, we show that one can construct such a loss.

Gradients can be employed for sensitivity analysis. Here, we leverage the advantages of the Loss Landscape to comprehend which independent variables impact the dependent variable. We seek to grasp the loss landscape by utilizing first, second, and third derivatives through automatic differentiation. we know that Spearman's rank correlation coefficient can detect the monotonic relationship between two variables. However, I have found that second-order gradients, with certain configurations and parameters, provide information that can be visualized similarly to Spearman results, In this approach, we incorporate a loss function with an activation function, resulting in a non-linear pattern. Each exploration of the loss landscape through retraining yields new valuable information. Furthermore, the first and third derivatives are also beneficial, as they indicate the extent to which independent variables influence the dependent variable.

Dataset Distillation is used to create a concise, yet informative, synthetic dataset that can replace the original dataset for training purposes. Some leading methods in this domain prioritize long-range matching, involving the unrolling of training trajectories with a fixed number of steps (NS) on the synthetic dataset to align with various expert training trajectories. However, traditional long-range matching methods possess an overfitting-like problem, the fixed step size NS forces synthetic dataset to distortedly conform seen expert training trajectories, resulting in a loss of generality-especially to those from unencountered architecture. We refer to this as the Accumulated Mismatching Problem (AMP), and propose a new approach, Automatic Training Trajectories (ATT), which dynamically and adaptively adjusts trajectory length NS to address the AMP. Our method outperforms existing methods particularly in tests involving cross-architectures. Moreover, owing to its adaptive nature, it exhibits enhanced stability in the face of parameter variations.

Deep neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial attacks. In this paper, we take the role of investigators who want to trace the attack and identify the source, that is, the particular model which the adversarial examples are generated from. Techniques derived would aid forensic investigation of attack incidents and serve as deterrence to potential attacks. We consider the buyers-seller setting where a machine learning model is to be distributed to various buyers and each buyer receives a slightly different copy with same functionality. A malicious buyer generates adversarial examples from a particular copy M_i and uses them to attack other copies. From these adversarial examples, the investigator wants to identify the source M_i. To address this problem, we propose a two-stage separate-and-trace framework. The model separation stage generates multiple copies of a model for a same classification task. This process injects unique characteristics into each copy so that adversarial examples generated have distinct and traceable features. We give a parallel structure which embeds a ``tracer'' in each copy, and a noise-sensitive training loss to achieve this goal. The tracing stage takes in adversarial examples and a few candidate models, and identifies the likely source. Based on the unique features induced by the noise-sensitive loss function, we could effectively trace the potential adversarial copy by considering the output logits from each tracer. Empirical results show that it is possible to trace the origin of the adversarial example and the mechanism can be applied to a wide range of architectures and datasets.

While the design of blind image quality assessment (IQA) algorithms has improved significantly, the distribution shift between the training and testing scenarios often leads to a poor performance of these methods at inference time. This motivates the study of test time adaptation (TTA) techniques to improve their performance at inference time. Existing auxiliary tasks and loss functions used for TTA may not be relevant for quality-aware adaptation of the pre-trained model. In this work, we introduce two novel quality-relevant auxiliary tasks at the batch and sample levels to enable TTA for blind IQA. In particular, we introduce a group contrastive loss at the batch level and a relative rank loss at the sample level to make the model quality aware and adapt to the target data. Our experiments reveal that even using a small batch of images from the test distribution helps achieve significant improvement in performance by updating the batch normalization statistics of the source model.

Recent large language models have been trained on vast datasets, but also often on repeated data, either intentionally for the purpose of upweighting higher quality data, or unintentionally because data deduplication is not perfect and the model is exposed to repeated data at the sentence, paragraph, or document level. Some works have reported substantial negative performance effects of this repeated data. In this paper we attempt to study repeated data systematically and to understand its effects mechanistically. To do this, we train a family of models where most of the data is unique but a small fraction of it is repeated many times. We find a strong double descent phenomenon, in which repeated data can lead test loss to increase midway through training. A predictable range of repetition frequency leads to surprisingly severe degradation in performance. For instance, performance of an 800M parameter model can be degraded to that of a 2x smaller model (400M params) by repeating 0.1% of the data 100 times, despite the other 90% of the training tokens remaining unique. We suspect there is a range in the middle where the data can be memorized and doing so consumes a large fraction of the model's capacity, and this may be where the peak of degradation occurs. Finally, we connect these observations to recent mechanistic interpretability work - attempting to reverse engineer the detailed computations performed by the model - by showing that data repetition disproportionately damages copying and internal structures associated with generalization, such as induction heads, providing a possible mechanism for the shift from generalization to memorization. Taken together, these results provide a hypothesis for why repeating a relatively small fraction of data in large language models could lead to disproportionately large harms to performance.

Dataset distillation methods aim to compress a large dataset into a small set of synthetic samples, such that when being trained on, competitive performances can be achieved compared to regular training on the entire dataset. Among recently proposed methods, Matching Training Trajectories (MTT) achieves state-of-the-art performance on CIFAR-10/100, while having difficulty scaling to ImageNet-1k dataset due to the large memory requirement when performing unrolled gradient computation through back-propagation. Surprisingly, we show that there exists a procedure to exactly calculate the gradient of the trajectory matching loss with constant GPU memory requirement (irrelevant to the number of unrolled steps). With this finding, the proposed memory-efficient trajectory matching method can easily scale to ImageNet-1K with 6x memory reduction while introducing only around 2% runtime overhead than original MTT. Further, we find that assigning soft labels for synthetic images is crucial for the performance when scaling to larger number of categories (e.g., 1,000) and propose a novel soft label version of trajectory matching that facilities better aligning of model training trajectories on large datasets. The proposed algorithm not only surpasses previous SOTA on ImageNet-1K under extremely low IPCs (Images Per Class), but also for the first time enables us to scale up to 50 IPCs on ImageNet-1K. Our method (TESLA) achieves 27.9% testing accuracy, a remarkable +18.2% margin over prior arts.

Auto-regressive LLM-based software engineering (SWE) agents, henceforth SWE agents, have made tremendous progress (>60% on SWE-Bench Verified) on real-world coding challenges including GitHub issue resolution. SWE agents use a combination of reasoning, environment interaction and self-reflection to resolve issues thereby generating "trajectories". Analysis of SWE agent trajectories is difficult, not only as they exceed LLM sequence length (sometimes, greater than 128k) but also because it involves a relatively prolonged interaction between an LLM and the environment managed by the agent. In case of an agent error, it can be hard to decipher, locate and understand its scope. Similarly, it can be hard to track improvements or regression over multiple runs or experiments. While a lot of research has gone into making these SWE agents reach state-of-the-art, much less focus has been put into creating tools to help analyze and visualize agent output. We propose a novel tool called SeaView: Software Engineering Agent Visual Interface for Enhanced Workflow, with a vision to assist SWE-agent researchers to visualize and inspect their experiments. SeaView's novel mechanisms help compare experimental runs with varying hyper-parameters or LLMs, and quickly get an understanding of LLM or environment related problems. Based on our user study, experienced researchers spend between 10 and 30 minutes to gather the information provided by SeaView, while researchers with little experience can spend between 30 minutes to 1 hour to diagnose their experiment.

We find that the cross-entropy loss curves of neural language models empirically adhere to a scaling law with learning rate (LR) annealing over training steps (s): $L(s) = L_0 + Acdot S_1^{-alpha} - Ccdot S_2 Where S_1 is forward area and S_2$ is learning rate annealing area. This formulation takes into account two factors: (1) The forward scaling defined as typical scaling law, and (2) the additional loss drop brought by LR annealing. Therefore, this formulation can describe the full loss curve at each step, rather than the single loss point at the end of training. Applying the scaling law with LR annealing and fitting only one or two training curves, we can accurately predict the loss of language model training at any given step and across any learning rate scheduler (LRS). Furthermore, this equation accurately describes the dynamics during training process, and provides a theoretical verification and explanation for numerous experimental findings of previous studies, particularly those focusing on LR schedule and LR annealing. The resulting insights, also serve as a guide for researchers to select critical LRS in advance by prediction using our equation. Most significantly, since all the points in a full training curve follow the equation, we can achieve accurate loss prediction at any given step across any learning rate scheduler, while expending less than 1\% of the computational cost required by the chinchilla scaling law to fit language modeling loss. This approach extremely democratizes scaling law fitting and predicting in developing large language models.

Training large-scale machine learning models poses distinct system challenges, given both the size and complexity of today's workloads. Recently, many organizations training state-of-the-art Generative AI models have reported cases of instability during training, often taking the form of loss spikes. Numeric deviation has emerged as a potential cause of this training instability, although quantifying this is especially challenging given the costly nature of training runs. In this work, we develop a principled approach to understanding the effects of numeric deviation, and construct proxies to put observations into context when downstream effects are difficult to quantify. As a case study, we apply this framework to analyze the widely-adopted Flash Attention optimization. We find that Flash Attention sees roughly an order of magnitude more numeric deviation as compared to Baseline Attention at BF16 when measured during an isolated forward pass. We then use a data-driven analysis based on the Wasserstein Distance to provide upper bounds on how this numeric deviation impacts model weights during training, finding that the numerical deviation present in Flash Attention is 2-5 times less significant than low-precision training.

In this paper, we introduce a novel predict-and-optimize method for profit-driven churn prevention. We frame the task of targeting customers for a retention campaign as a regret minimization problem. The main objective is to leverage individual customer lifetime values (CLVs) to ensure that only the most valuable customers are targeted. In contrast, many profit-driven strategies focus on churn probabilities while considering average CLVs. This often results in significant information loss due to data aggregation. Our proposed model aligns with the guidelines of Predict-and-Optimize (PnO) frameworks and can be efficiently solved using stochastic gradient descent methods. Results from 12 churn prediction datasets underscore the effectiveness of our approach, which achieves the best average performance compared to other well-established strategies in terms of average profit.

We build new test sets for the CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets. Both benchmarks have been the focus of intense research for almost a decade, raising the danger of overfitting to excessively re-used test sets. By closely following the original dataset creation processes, we test to what extent current classification models generalize to new data. We evaluate a broad range of models and find accuracy drops of 3% - 15% on CIFAR-10 and 11% - 14% on ImageNet. However, accuracy gains on the original test sets translate to larger gains on the new test sets. Our results suggest that the accuracy drops are not caused by adaptivity, but by the models' inability to generalize to slightly "harder" images than those found in the original test sets.

This work aims to understand how scaling improves language models, specifically in terms of training dynamics. We find that language models undergo loss deceleration early in training; an abrupt slowdown in the rate of loss improvement, resulting in piecewise linear behaviour of the loss curve in log-log space. Scaling up the model mitigates this transition by (1) decreasing the loss at which deceleration occurs, and (2) improving the log-log rate of loss improvement after deceleration. We attribute loss deceleration to a type of degenerate training dynamics we term zero-sum learning (ZSL). In ZSL, per-example gradients become systematically opposed, leading to destructive interference in per-example changes in loss. As a result, improving loss on one subset of examples degrades it on another, bottlenecking overall progress. Loss deceleration and ZSL provide new insights into the training dynamics underlying language model scaling laws, and could potentially be targeted directly to improve language models independent of scale. We make our code and artefacts available at: https://github.com/mirandrom/zsl

Semiconductor lasers have been rapidly evolving to meet the demands of next-generation optical networks. This imposes much more stringent requirements on the laser reliability, which are dominated by degradation mechanisms (e.g., sudden degradation) limiting the semiconductor laser lifetime. Physics-based approaches are often used to characterize the degradation behavior analytically, yet explicit domain knowledge and accurate mathematical models are required. Building such models can be very challenging due to a lack of a full understanding of the complex physical processes inducing the degradation under various operating conditions. To overcome the aforementioned limitations, we propose a new data-driven approach, extracting useful insights from the operational monitored data to predict the degradation trend without requiring any specific knowledge or using any physical model. The proposed approach is based on an unsupervised technique, a conditional variational autoencoder, and validated using vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) and tunable edge emitting laser reliability data. The experimental results confirm that our model (i) achieves a good degradation prediction and generalization performance by yielding an F1 score of 95.3%, (ii) outperforms several baseline ML based anomaly detection techniques, and (iii) helps to shorten the aging tests by early predicting the failed devices before the end of the test and thereby saving costs

Recent work by Power et al. (2022) highlighted a surprising "grokking" phenomenon in learning arithmetic tasks: a neural net first "memorizes" the training set, resulting in perfect training accuracy but near-random test accuracy, and after training for sufficiently longer, it suddenly transitions to perfect test accuracy. This paper studies the grokking phenomenon in theoretical setups and shows that it can be induced by a dichotomy of early and late phase implicit biases. Specifically, when training homogeneous neural nets with large initialization and small weight decay on both classification and regression tasks, we prove that the training process gets trapped at a solution corresponding to a kernel predictor for a long time, and then a very sharp transition to min-norm/max-margin predictors occurs, leading to a dramatic change in test accuracy.

In modern recommendation systems, the standard pipeline involves training machine learning models on historical data to predict user behaviors and improve recommendations continuously. However, these data training loops can introduce interference in A/B tests, where data generated by control and treatment algorithms, potentially with different distributions, are combined. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach called weighted training. This approach entails training a model to predict the probability of each data point appearing in either the treatment or control data and subsequently applying weighted losses during model training. We demonstrate that this approach achieves the least variance among all estimators that do not cause shifts in the training distributions. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the lower bias and variance of our approach compared to other methods.

Most recent test-time adaptation methods focus on only classification tasks, use specialized network architectures, destroy model calibration or rely on lightweight information from the source domain. To tackle these issues, this paper proposes a novel Test-time Self-Learning method with automatic Adversarial augmentation dubbed TeSLA for adapting a pre-trained source model to the unlabeled streaming test data. In contrast to conventional self-learning methods based on cross-entropy, we introduce a new test-time loss function through an implicitly tight connection with the mutual information and online knowledge distillation. Furthermore, we propose a learnable efficient adversarial augmentation module that further enhances online knowledge distillation by simulating high entropy augmented images. Our method achieves state-of-the-art classification and segmentation results on several benchmarks and types of domain shifts, particularly on challenging measurement shifts of medical images. TeSLA also benefits from several desirable properties compared to competing methods in terms of calibration, uncertainty metrics, insensitivity to model architectures, and source training strategies, all supported by extensive ablations. Our code and models are available on GitHub.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) can in principle synthesize more optimal behavior from a dataset consisting only of suboptimal trials. One way that this can happen is by "stitching" together the best parts of otherwise suboptimal trajectories that overlap on similar states, to create new behaviors where each individual state is in-distribution, but the overall returns are higher. However, in many interesting and complex applications, such as autonomous navigation and dialogue systems, the state is partially observed. Even worse, the state representation is unknown or not easy to define. In such cases, policies and value functions are often conditioned on observation histories instead of states. In these cases, it is not clear if the same kind of "stitching" is feasible at the level of observation histories, since two different trajectories would always have different histories, and thus "similar states" that might lead to effective stitching cannot be leveraged. Theoretically, we show that standard offline RL algorithms conditioned on observation histories suffer from poor sample complexity, in accordance with the above intuition. We then identify sufficient conditions under which offline RL can still be efficient -- intuitively, it needs to learn a compact representation of history comprising only features relevant for action selection. We introduce a bisimulation loss that captures the extent to which this happens, and propose that offline RL can explicitly optimize this loss to aid worst-case sample complexity. Empirically, we show that across a variety of tasks either our proposed loss improves performance, or the value of this loss is already minimized as a consequence of standard offline RL, indicating that it correlates well with good performance.

Typical neural network trainings have substantial variance in test-set performance between repeated runs, impeding hyperparameter comparison and training reproducibility. We present the following results towards understanding this variation. (1) Despite having significant variance on their test-sets, we demonstrate that standard CIFAR-10 and ImageNet trainings have very little variance in their performance on the test-distributions from which those test-sets are sampled, suggesting that variance is less of a practical issue than previously thought. (2) We present a simplifying statistical assumption which closely approximates the structure of the test-set accuracy distribution. (3) We argue that test-set variance is inevitable in the following two senses. First, we show that variance is largely caused by high sensitivity of the training process to initial conditions, rather than by specific sources of randomness like the data order and augmentations. Second, we prove that variance is unavoidable given the observation that ensembles of trained networks are well-calibrated. (4) We conduct preliminary studies of distribution-shift, fine-tuning, data augmentation and learning rate through the lens of variance between runs.

Existing methods for evaluating large language models face challenges such as data contamination, sensitivity to prompts, and the high cost of benchmark creation. To address this, we propose a lossless data compression based evaluation approach that tests how models' predictive abilities generalize after their training cutoff. Specifically, we collect comprehensive test data spanning 83 months from 2017 to 2023 and split the data into training and testing periods according to models' training data cutoff. We measure: 1) the compression performance on the testing period as a measure of generalization on unseen data; and 2) the performance gap between the training and testing period as a measure of robustness. Our experiments test 14 representative large language models with various sizes on sources including Wikipedia, news articles, code, arXiv papers, and multi-modal data. We find that the compression rate of many models reduces significantly after their cutoff date, but models such as Mistral and Llama-2 demonstrate a good balance between performance and robustness. Results also suggest that models struggle to generalize on news and code data, but work especially well on arXiv papers. We also find the context size and tokenization implementation have a big impact of on the overall compression performance.

Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models have shown an impressive generation quality, although their long sampling chain leads to high computational costs. In this paper, we observe that a long sampling chain also leads to an error accumulation phenomenon, which is similar to the exposure bias problem in autoregressive text generation. Specifically, we note that there is a discrepancy between training and testing, since the former is conditioned on the ground truth samples, while the latter is conditioned on the previously generated results. To alleviate this problem, we propose a very simple but effective training regularization, consisting in perturbing the ground truth samples to simulate the inference time prediction errors. We empirically show that, without affecting the recall and precision, the proposed input perturbation leads to a significant improvement in the sample quality while reducing both the training and the inference times. For instance, on CelebA 64times64, we achieve a new state-of-the-art FID score of 1.27, while saving 37.5% of the training time. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/forever208/DDPM-IP

Deep neural networks are highly performant, but might base their decision on spurious or background features that co-occur with certain classes, which can hurt generalization. To mitigate this issue, the usage of 'model guidance' has gained popularity recently: for this, models are guided to be "right for the right reasons" by regularizing the models' explanations to highlight the right features. Experimental validation of these approaches has thus far however been limited to relatively simple and / or synthetic datasets. To gain a better understanding of which model-guiding approaches actually transfer to more challenging real-world datasets, in this work we conduct an in-depth evaluation across various loss functions, attribution methods, models, and 'guidance depths' on the PASCAL VOC 2007 and MS COCO 2014 datasets, and show that model guidance can sometimes even improve model performance. In this context, we further propose a novel energy loss, show its effectiveness in directing the model to focus on object features. We also show that these gains can be achieved even with a small fraction (e.g. 1%) of bounding box annotations, highlighting the cost effectiveness of this approach. Lastly, we show that this approach can also improve generalization under distribution shifts. Code will be made available.

Recent approaches have yielded promising results in distilling multi-step text-to-image diffusion models into one-step ones. The state-of-the-art efficient distillation technique, i.e., SwiftBrushv2 (SBv2), even surpasses the teacher model's performance with limited resources. However, our study reveals its instability when handling different diffusion model backbones due to using a fixed guidance scale within the Variational Score Distillation (VSD) loss. Another weakness of the existing one-step diffusion models is the missing support for negative prompt guidance, which is crucial in practical image generation. This paper presents SNOOPI, a novel framework designed to address these limitations by enhancing the guidance in one-step diffusion models during both training and inference. First, we effectively enhance training stability through Proper Guidance-SwiftBrush (PG-SB), which employs a random-scale classifier-free guidance approach. By varying the guidance scale of both teacher models, we broaden their output distributions, resulting in a more robust VSD loss that enables SB to perform effectively across diverse backbones while maintaining competitive performance. Second, we propose a training-free method called Negative-Away Steer Attention (NASA), which integrates negative prompts into one-step diffusion models via cross-attention to suppress undesired elements in generated images. Our experimental results show that our proposed methods significantly improve baseline models across various metrics. Remarkably, we achieve an HPSv2 score of 31.08, setting a new state-of-the-art benchmark for one-step diffusion models.

Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) is a recent but already widely popular method that relies on an image diffusion model to control optimization problems using text prompts. In this paper, we conduct an in-depth analysis of the SDS loss function, identify an inherent problem with its formulation, and propose a surprisingly easy but effective fix. Specifically, we decompose the loss into different factors and isolate the component responsible for noisy gradients. In the original formulation, high text guidance is used to account for the noise, leading to unwanted side effects. Instead, we train a shallow network mimicking the timestep-dependent denoising deficiency of the image diffusion model in order to effectively factor it out. We demonstrate the versatility and the effectiveness of our novel loss formulation through several qualitative and quantitative experiments, including optimization-based image synthesis and editing, zero-shot image translation network training, and text-to-3D synthesis.

Recently, sequence learning methods have been applied to the problem of off-policy Reinforcement Learning, including the seminal work on Decision Transformers, which employs transformers for this task. Since transformers are parameter-heavy, cannot benefit from history longer than a fixed window size, and are not computed using recurrence, we set out to investigate the suitability of the S4 family of models, which are based on state-space layers and have been shown to outperform transformers, especially in modeling long-range dependencies. In this work we present two main algorithms: (i) an off-policy training procedure that works with trajectories, while still maintaining the training efficiency of the S4 model. (ii) An on-policy training procedure that is trained in a recurrent manner, benefits from long-range dependencies, and is based on a novel stable actor-critic mechanism. Our results indicate that our method outperforms multiple variants of decision transformers, as well as the other baseline methods on most tasks, while reducing the latency, number of parameters, and training time by several orders of magnitude, making our approach more suitable for real-world RL.

Safety performance evaluation is critical for developing and deploying connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). One prevailing way is to design testing scenarios using prior knowledge of CAVs, test CAVs in these scenarios, and then evaluate their safety performances. However, significant differences between CAVs and prior knowledge could severely reduce the evaluation efficiency. Towards addressing this issue, most existing studies focus on the adaptive design of testing scenarios during the CAV testing process, but so far they cannot be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. In this paper, we focus on the adaptive safety performance evaluation by leveraging the testing results, after the CAV testing process. It can significantly improve the evaluation efficiency and be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. Specifically, instead of directly evaluating the unknown quantity (e.g., crash rates) of CAV safety performances, we evaluate the differences between the unknown quantity and known quantity (i.e., control variates). By leveraging the testing results, the control variates could be well designed and optimized such that the differences are close to zero, so the evaluation variance could be dramatically reduced for different CAVs. To handle the high-dimensional scenarios, we propose the sparse control variates method, where the control variates are designed only for the sparse and critical variables of scenarios. According to the number of critical variables in each scenario, the control variates are stratified into strata and optimized within each stratum using multiple linear regression techniques. We justify the proposed method's effectiveness by rigorous theoretical analysis and empirical study of high-dimensional overtaking scenarios.

Recent advancements in software engineering agents have demonstrated promising capabilities in automating program improvements. However, their reliance on closed-source or resource-intensive models introduces significant deployment challenges in private environments, prompting a critical question: How can personally deployable open-source LLMs achieve comparable code reasoning performance? To this end, we propose a unified Test-Time Compute scaling framework that leverages increased inference-time computation instead of larger models. Our framework incorporates two complementary strategies: internal TTC and external TTC. Internally, we introduce a development-contextualized trajectory synthesis method leveraging real-world software repositories to bootstrap multi-stage reasoning processes, such as fault localization and patch generation. We further enhance trajectory quality through rejection sampling, rigorously evaluating trajectories along accuracy and complexity. Externally, we propose a novel development-process-based search strategy guided by reward models and execution verification. This approach enables targeted computational allocation at critical development decision points, overcoming limitations of existing "end-point only" verification methods. Evaluations on SWE-bench Verified demonstrate our 32B model achieves a 46\% issue resolution rate, surpassing significantly larger models such as DeepSeek R1 671B and OpenAI o1. Additionally, we provide the empirical validation of the test-time scaling phenomenon within SWE agents, revealing that models dynamically allocate more tokens to increasingly challenging problems, effectively enhancing reasoning capabilities. We publicly release all training data, models, and code to facilitate future research. https://github.com/yingweima2022/SWE-Reasoner

Test Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses the problem of distribution shift by adapting a pretrained model to a new domain during inference. When faced with challenging shifts, most methods collapse and perform worse than the original pretrained model. In this paper, we find that not all layers are equally receptive to the adaptation, and the layers with the most misaligned gradients often cause performance degradation. To address this, we propose GALA, a novel layer selection criterion to identify the most beneficial updates to perform during test time adaptation. This criterion can also filter out unreliable samples with noisy gradients. Its simplicity allows seamless integration with existing TTA loss functions, thereby preventing degradation and focusing adaptation on the most trainable layers. This approach also helps to regularize adaptation to preserve the pretrained features, which are crucial for handling unseen domains. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed layer selection framework improves the performance of existing TTA approaches across multiple datasets, domain shifts, model architectures, and TTA losses.

Neural scaling laws (NSL) refer to the phenomenon where model performance improves with scale. Sharma & Kaplan analyzed NSL using approximation theory and predict that MSE losses decay as N^{-alpha}, alpha=4/d, where N is the number of model parameters, and d is the intrinsic input dimension. Although their theory works well for some cases (e.g., ReLU networks), we surprisingly find that a simple 1D problem y=x^2 manifests a different scaling law (alpha=1) from their predictions (alpha=4). We opened the neural networks and found that the new scaling law originates from lottery ticket ensembling: a wider network on average has more "lottery tickets", which are ensembled to reduce the variance of outputs. We support the ensembling mechanism by mechanistically interpreting single neural networks, as well as studying them statistically. We attribute the N^{-1} scaling law to the "central limit theorem" of lottery tickets. Finally, we discuss its potential implications for large language models and statistical physics-type theories of learning.

The prediction of foreign exchange rates, such as the US Dollar (USD) to Bangladeshi Taka (BDT), plays a pivotal role in global financial markets, influencing trade, investments, and economic stability. This study leverages historical USD/BDT exchange rate data from 2018 to 2023, sourced from Yahoo Finance, to develop advanced machine learning models for accurate forecasting. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is employed, achieving an exceptional accuracy of 99.449%, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.9858, and a test loss of 0.8523, significantly outperforming traditional methods like ARIMA (RMSE 1.342). Additionally, a Gradient Boosting Classifier (GBC) is applied for directional prediction, with backtesting on a 10,000 initial capital revealing a 40.82% profitable trade rate, though resulting in a net loss of 20,653.25 over 49 trades. The study analyzes historical trends, showing a decline in BDT/USD rates from 0.012 to 0.009, and incorporates normalized daily returns to capture volatility. These findings highlight the potential of deep learning in forex forecasting, offering traders and policymakers robust tools to mitigate risks. Future work could integrate sentiment analysis and real-time economic indicators to further enhance model adaptability in volatile markets.

Iterative preference optimization methods have recently been shown to perform well for general instruction tuning tasks, but typically make little improvement on reasoning tasks (Yuan et al., 2024, Chen et al., 2024). In this work we develop an iterative approach that optimizes the preference between competing generated Chain-of-Thought (CoT) candidates by optimizing for winning vs. losing reasoning steps that lead to the correct answer. We train using a modified DPO loss (Rafailov et al., 2023) with an additional negative log-likelihood term, which we find to be crucial. We show reasoning improves across repeated iterations of this scheme. While only relying on examples in the training set, our approach results in increasing accuracy for Llama-2-70B-Chat from 55.6% to 81.6% on GSM8K (and 88.7% with majority voting out of 32 samples), from 12.5% to 20.8% on MATH, and from 77.8% to 86.7% on ARC-Challenge, which outperforms other Llama-2-based models not relying on additionally sourced datasets.

Large language models (LLMs) have been widely applied to assist test generation with the source code under test provided as the context. This paper aims to answer the question: If the source code under test is incorrect, will LLMs be misguided when generating tests? The effectiveness of test cases is measured by their accuracy, coverage, and bug detection effectiveness. Our evaluation results with five open- and six closed-source LLMs on four datasets demonstrate that incorrect code can significantly mislead LLMs in generating correct, high-coverage, and bug-revealing tests. For instance, in the HumanEval dataset, LLMs achieve 80.45% test accuracy when provided with task descriptions and correct code, but only 57.12% when given task descriptions and incorrect code. For the APPS dataset, prompts with correct code yield tests that detect 39.85% of the bugs, while prompts with incorrect code detect only 19.61%. These findings have important implications for the deployment of LLM-based testing: using it on mature code may help protect against future regression, but on early-stage immature code, it may simply bake in errors. Our findings also underscore the need for further research to improve LLMs resilience against incorrect code in generating reliable and bug-revealing tests.

Loss functions serve as the foundation of supervised learning and are often chosen prior to model development. To avoid potentially ad hoc choices of losses, statistical decision theory describes a desirable property for losses known as properness, which asserts that Bayes' rule is optimal. Recent works have sought to learn losses and models jointly. Existing methods do this by fitting an inverse canonical link function which monotonically maps R to [0,1] to estimate probabilities for binary problems. In this paper, we extend monotonicity to maps between R^{C-1} and the projected probability simplex Delta^{C-1} by using monotonicity of gradients of convex functions. We present {\sc LegendreTron} as a novel and practical method that jointly learns proper canonical losses and probabilities for multiclass problems. Tested on a benchmark of domains with up to 1,000 classes, our experimental results show that our method consistently outperforms the natural multiclass baseline under a t-test at 99% significance on all datasets with greater than 10 classes.

Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) has recently emerged as a promising approach for tackling the robustness challenge under distribution shifts. However, the lack of consistent settings and systematic studies in prior literature hinders thorough assessments of existing methods. To address this issue, we present TTAB, a test-time adaptation benchmark that encompasses ten state-of-the-art algorithms, a diverse array of distribution shifts, and two evaluation protocols. Through extensive experiments, our benchmark reveals three common pitfalls in prior efforts. First, selecting appropriate hyper-parameters, especially for model selection, is exceedingly difficult due to online batch dependency. Second, the effectiveness of TTA varies greatly depending on the quality and properties of the model being adapted. Third, even under optimal algorithmic conditions, none of the existing methods are capable of addressing all common types of distribution shifts. Our findings underscore the need for future research in the field to conduct rigorous evaluations on a broader set of models and shifts, and to re-examine the assumptions behind the empirical success of TTA. Our code is available at https://github.com/lins-lab/ttab.

Knowledge distillation transfers knowledge from a large model to a small one via task and distillation losses. In this paper, we observe a trade-off between task and distillation losses, i.e., introducing distillation loss limits the convergence of task loss. We believe that the trade-off results from the insufficient optimization of distillation loss. The reason is: The teacher has a lower task loss than the student, and a lower distillation loss drives the student more similar to the teacher, then a better-converged task loss could be obtained. To break the trade-off, we propose the Distillation-Oriented Trainer (DOT). DOT separately considers gradients of task and distillation losses, then applies a larger momentum to distillation loss to accelerate its optimization. We empirically prove that DOT breaks the trade-off, i.e., both losses are sufficiently optimized. Extensive experiments validate the superiority of DOT. Notably, DOT achieves a +2.59% accuracy improvement on ImageNet-1k for the ResNet50-MobileNetV1 pair. Conclusively, DOT greatly benefits the student's optimization properties in terms of loss convergence and model generalization. Code will be made publicly available.

Prior work has established test-time training (TTT) as a general framework to further improve a trained model at test time. Before making a prediction on each test instance, the model is trained on the same instance using a self-supervised task, such as image reconstruction with masked autoencoders. We extend TTT to the streaming setting, where multiple test instances - video frames in our case - arrive in temporal order. Our extension is online TTT: The current model is initialized from the previous model, then trained on the current frame and a small window of frames immediately before. Online TTT significantly outperforms the fixed-model baseline for four tasks, on three real-world datasets. The relative improvement is 45% and 66% for instance and panoptic segmentation. Surprisingly, online TTT also outperforms its offline variant that accesses more information, training on all frames from the entire test video regardless of temporal order. This differs from previous findings using synthetic videos. We conceptualize locality as the advantage of online over offline TTT. We analyze the role of locality with ablations and a theory based on bias-variance trade-off.

Introduced by Hinton et al. in 2012, dropout has stood the test of time as a regularizer for preventing overfitting in neural networks. In this study, we demonstrate that dropout can also mitigate underfitting when used at the start of training. During the early phase, we find dropout reduces the directional variance of gradients across mini-batches and helps align the mini-batch gradients with the entire dataset's gradient. This helps counteract the stochasticity of SGD and limit the influence of individual batches on model training. Our findings lead us to a solution for improving performance in underfitting models - early dropout: dropout is applied only during the initial phases of training, and turned off afterwards. Models equipped with early dropout achieve lower final training loss compared to their counterparts without dropout. Additionally, we explore a symmetric technique for regularizing overfitting models - late dropout, where dropout is not used in the early iterations and is only activated later in training. Experiments on ImageNet and various vision tasks demonstrate that our methods consistently improve generalization accuracy. Our results encourage more research on understanding regularization in deep learning and our methods can be useful tools for future neural network training, especially in the era of large data. Code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/dropout.

Dropout is a simple but efficient regularization technique for achieving better generalization of deep neural networks (DNNs); hence it is widely used in tasks based on DNNs. During training, dropout randomly discards a portion of the neurons to avoid overfitting. This paper presents an enhanced dropout technique, which we call multi-sample dropout, for both accelerating training and improving generalization over the original dropout. The original dropout creates a randomly selected subset (called a dropout sample) from the input in each training iteration while the multi-sample dropout creates multiple dropout samples. The loss is calculated for each sample, and then the sample losses are averaged to obtain the final loss. This technique can be easily implemented by duplicating a part of the network after the dropout layer while sharing the weights among the duplicated fully connected layers. Experimental results using image classification tasks including ImageNet, CIFAR-10, and CIFAR-100 showed that multi-sample dropout accelerates training. Moreover, the networks trained using multi-sample dropout achieved lower error rates compared to networks trained with the original dropout. The additional computation cost due to the duplicated operations is not significant for deep convolutional networks because most of the computation time is consumed in the convolution layers before the dropout layer, which are not duplicated.

Practitioners frequently aim to infer an unobserved population trajectory using sample snapshots at multiple time points. For instance, in single-cell sequencing, scientists would like to learn how gene expression evolves over time. But sequencing any cell destroys that cell. So we cannot access any cell's full trajectory, but we can access snapshot samples from many cells. Stochastic differential equations are commonly used to analyze systems with full individual-trajectory access; since here we have only sample snapshots, these methods are inapplicable. The deep learning community has recently explored using Schr\"odinger bridges (SBs) and their extensions to estimate these dynamics. However, these methods either (1) interpolate between just two time points or (2) require a single fixed reference dynamic within the SB, which is often just set to be Brownian motion. But learning piecewise from adjacent time points can fail to capture long-term dependencies. And practitioners are typically able to specify a model class for the reference dynamic but not the exact values of the parameters within it. So we propose a new method that (1) learns the unobserved trajectories from sample snapshots across multiple time points and (2) requires specification only of a class of reference dynamics, not a single fixed one. In particular, we suggest an iterative projection method inspired by Schr\"odinger bridges; we alternate between learning a piecewise SB on the unobserved trajectories and using the learned SB to refine our best guess for the dynamics within the reference class. We demonstrate the advantages of our method via a well-known simulated parametric model from ecology, simulated and real data from systems biology, and real motion-capture data.

Neural network training relies on our ability to find "good" minimizers of highly non-convex loss functions. It is well-known that certain network architecture designs (e.g., skip connections) produce loss functions that train easier, and well-chosen training parameters (batch size, learning rate, optimizer) produce minimizers that generalize better. However, the reasons for these differences, and their effects on the underlying loss landscape, are not well understood. In this paper, we explore the structure of neural loss functions, and the effect of loss landscapes on generalization, using a range of visualization methods. First, we introduce a simple "filter normalization" method that helps us visualize loss function curvature and make meaningful side-by-side comparisons between loss functions. Then, using a variety of visualizations, we explore how network architecture affects the loss landscape, and how training parameters affect the shape of minimizers.

It is well-known that a diverse corpus is critical for training large language models, which are typically constructed from a mixture of various domains. In general, previous efforts resort to sampling training data from different domains with static proportions, as well as adjusting data proportions during training. However, few methods have addressed the complexities of domain-adaptive continual pre-training. To fill this gap, we propose Velocitune, a novel framework dynamically assesses learning velocity and adjusts data proportions accordingly, favoring slower-learning domains while shunning faster-learning ones, which is guided by a scaling law to indicate the desired learning goal for each domain with less associated cost. To evaluate the effectiveness of Velocitune, we conduct experiments in a reasoning-focused dataset with CodeLlama, as well as in a corpus specialised for system command generation with Llama3 and Mistral. Velocitune achieves performance gains in both math and code reasoning tasks and command-line generation benchmarks. Further analysis reveals that key factors driving Velocitune's effectiveness include target loss prediction and data ordering.

Despite recent advancements in deep learning, deep neural networks continue to suffer from performance degradation when applied to new data that differs from training data. Test-time adaptation (TTA) aims to address this challenge by adapting a model to unlabeled data at test time. TTA can be applied to pretrained networks without modifying their training procedures, enabling them to utilize a well-formed source distribution for adaptation. One possible approach is to align the representation space of test samples to the source distribution (i.e., feature alignment). However, performing feature alignment in TTA is especially challenging in that access to labeled source data is restricted during adaptation. That is, a model does not have a chance to learn test data in a class-discriminative manner, which was feasible in other adaptation tasks (e.g., unsupervised domain adaptation) via supervised losses on the source data. Based on this observation, we propose a simple yet effective feature alignment loss, termed as Class-Aware Feature Alignment (CAFA), which simultaneously 1) encourages a model to learn target representations in a class-discriminative manner and 2) effectively mitigates the distribution shifts at test time. Our method does not require any hyper-parameters or additional losses, which are required in previous approaches. We conduct extensive experiments on 6 different datasets and show our proposed method consistently outperforms existing baselines.

One puzzling artifact in machine learning dubbed grokking is where delayed generalization is achieved tenfolds of iterations after near perfect overfitting to the training data. Focusing on the long delay itself on behalf of machine learning practitioners, our goal is to accelerate generalization of a model under grokking phenomenon. By regarding a series of gradients of a parameter over training iterations as a random signal over time, we can spectrally decompose the parameter trajectories under gradient descent into two components: the fast-varying, overfitting-yielding component and the slow-varying, generalization-inducing component. This analysis allows us to accelerate the grokking phenomenon more than times 50 with only a few lines of code that amplifies the slow-varying components of gradients. The experiments show that our algorithm applies to diverse tasks involving images, languages, and graphs, enabling practical availability of this peculiar artifact of sudden generalization. Our code is available at https://github.com/ironjr/grokfast.

Applying diffusion models in reinforcement learning for long-term planning has gained much attention recently. Several diffusion-based methods have successfully leveraged the modeling capabilities of diffusion for arbitrary distributions. These methods generate subsequent trajectories for planning and have demonstrated significant improvement. However, these methods are limited by their plain base distributions and their overlooking of the diversity of samples, in which different states have different returns. They simply leverage diffusion to learn the distribution of offline dataset, generate the trajectories whose states share the same distribution with the offline dataset. As a result, the probability of these models reaching the high-return states is largely dependent on the dataset distribution. Even equipped with the guidance model, the performance is still suppressed. To address these limitations, in this paper, we propose a novel method called CDiffuser, which devises a return contrast mechanism to pull the states in generated trajectories towards high-return states while pushing them away from low-return states to improve the base distribution. Experiments on 14 commonly used D4RL benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Recent empirical studies have explored the idea of continuing to train a model at test-time for a given task, known as test-time training (TTT), and have found it to yield significant performance improvements. However, there is limited understanding of why and when TTT is effective. Earlier explanations mostly focused on the observation that TTT may help when applied to out-of-distribution adaptation or used with privileged data. However, the growing scale of foundation models with most test data being in-distribution questions these explanations. We instead posit that foundation models remain globally underparameterized, with TTT providing a mechanism for specialization after generalization, focusing capacity on concepts relevant to the test task. Specifically, under the linear representation hypothesis, we propose a model in which TTT achieves a substantially smaller in-distribution test error than global training. We empirically validate our model's key assumptions by training a sparse autoencoder on ImageNet, showing that semantically related data points are explained by only a few shared concepts. Finally, we perform scaling studies across image and language tasks that confirm the practical implications of our model, identifying the regimes where specialization is most effective.

Information tasks such as writing surveys or analytical reports require complex search and reasoning, and have recently been grouped under the umbrella of deep research -- a term also adopted by recent models targeting these capabilities. Despite growing interest, the scope of the deep research task remains underdefined and its distinction from other reasoning-intensive problems is poorly understood. In this paper, we propose a formal characterization of the deep research (DR) task and introduce a benchmark to evaluate the performance of DR systems. We argue that the core defining feature of deep research is not the production of lengthy report-style outputs, but rather the high fan-out over concepts required during the search process, i.e., broad and reasoning-intensive exploration. To enable objective evaluation, we define DR using an intermediate output representation that encodes key claims uncovered during search-separating the reasoning challenge from surface-level report generation. Based on this formulation, we propose a diverse, challenging benchmark LiveDRBench with 100 challenging tasks over scientific topics (e.g., datasets, materials discovery, prior art search) and public interest events (e.g., flight incidents, movie awards). Across state-of-the-art DR systems, F1 score ranges between 0.02 and 0.72 for any sub-category. OpenAI's model performs the best with an overall F1 score of 0.55. Analysis of reasoning traces reveals the distribution over the number of referenced sources, branching, and backtracking events executed by current DR systems, motivating future directions for improving their search mechanisms and grounding capabilities. The benchmark is available at https://github.com/microsoft/LiveDRBench.

Longitudinal analysis has great potential to reveal developmental trajectories and monitor disease progression in medical imaging. This process relies on consistent and robust joint 4D segmentation. Traditional techniques are dependent on the similarity of images over time and the use of subject-specific priors to reduce random variation and improve the robustness and sensitivity of the overall longitudinal analysis. This is however slow and computationally intensive as subject-specific templates need to be rebuilt every time. The focus of this work to accelerate this analysis with the use of deep learning. The proposed approach is based on deep CNNs and incorporates semantic segmentation and provides a longitudinal relationship for the same subject. The proposed approach is based on deep CNNs and incorporates semantic segmentation and provides a longitudinal relationship for the same subject. The state of art using 3D patches as inputs to modified Unet provides results around {0.91 pm 0.5} Dice and using multi-view atlas in CNNs provide around the same results. In this work, different models are explored, each offers better accuracy and fast results while increasing the segmentation quality. These methods are evaluated on 135 scans from the EADC-ADNI Harmonized Hippocampus Protocol. Proposed CNN based segmentation approaches demonstrate how 2D segmentation using prior slices can provide similar results to 3D segmentation while maintaining good continuity in the 3D dimension and improved speed. Just using 2D modified sagittal slices provide us a better Dice and longitudinal analysis for a given subject. For the ADNI dataset, using the simple UNet CNN technique gives us {0.84 pm 0.5} and while using modified CNN techniques on the same input yields {0.89 pm 0.5}. Rate of atrophy and RMS error are calculated for several test cases using various methods and analyzed.

In this work, we study the evolution of the loss Hessian across many classification tasks in order to understand the effect the curvature of the loss has on the training dynamics. Whereas prior work has focused on how different learning rates affect the loss Hessian observed during training, we also analyze the effects of model initialization, architectural choices, and common training heuristics such as gradient clipping and learning rate warmup. Our results demonstrate that successful model and hyperparameter choices allow the early optimization trajectory to either avoid -- or navigate out of -- regions of high curvature and into flatter regions that tolerate a higher learning rate. Our results suggest a unifying perspective on how disparate mitigation strategies for training instability ultimately address the same underlying failure mode of neural network optimization, namely poor conditioning. Inspired by the conditioning perspective, we show that learning rate warmup can improve training stability just as much as batch normalization, layer normalization, MetaInit, GradInit, and Fixup initialization.

Training language models currently requires pre-determining a fixed compute budget because the typical cosine learning rate schedule depends on the total number of steps. In contrast, the Warmup-Stable-Decay (WSD) schedule uses a constant learning rate to produce a main branch of iterates that can in principle continue indefinitely without a pre-specified compute budget. Then, given any compute budget, one can branch out from the main branch at a proper time with a rapidly decaying learning rate to produce a strong model. Empirically, WSD generates a non-traditional loss curve: the loss remains elevated during the stable phase but sharply declines during the decay phase. Towards explaining this phenomenon, we conjecture that pretraining loss exhibits a river valley landscape, which resembles a deep valley with a river at its bottom. Under this assumption, we show that during the stable phase, the iterate undergoes large oscillations due to the high learning rate, yet it progresses swiftly along the river. During the decay phase, the rapidly dropping learning rate minimizes the iterate's oscillations, moving it closer to the river and revealing true optimization progress. Therefore, the sustained high learning rate phase and fast decaying phase are responsible for progress in the river and the mountain directions respectively, and are both critical. Our analysis predicts phenomenons consistent with empirical observations and shows that this landscape can emerge from pretraining on a simple bi-gram dataset. Inspired by the theory, we introduce WSD-S, a variant of WSD that reuses previous checkpoints' decay phases and keeps only one main branch, where we resume from a decayed checkpoint. WSD-S empirically outperforms WSD and Cyclic-Cosine in obtaining multiple language model checkpoints across various compute budgets in a single run for parameters scaling from 0.1B to 1.2B.

We build four new test sets for the Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) and evaluate the ability of question-answering systems to generalize to new data. Our first test set is from the original Wikipedia domain and measures the extent to which existing systems overfit the original test set. Despite several years of heavy test set re-use, we find no evidence of adaptive overfitting. The remaining three test sets are constructed from New York Times articles, Reddit posts, and Amazon product reviews and measure robustness to natural distribution shifts. Across a broad range of models, we observe average performance drops of 3.8, 14.0, and 17.4 F1 points, respectively. In contrast, a strong human baseline matches or exceeds the performance of SQuAD models on the original domain and exhibits little to no drop in new domains. Taken together, our results confirm the surprising resilience of the holdout method and emphasize the need to move towards evaluation metrics that incorporate robustness to natural distribution shifts.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) has shown to be effective at tackling distribution shifts between training and testing data by adapting a given model on test samples. However, the online model updating of TTA may be unstable and this is often a key obstacle preventing existing TTA methods from being deployed in the real world. Specifically, TTA may fail to improve or even harm the model performance when test data have: 1) mixed distribution shifts, 2) small batch sizes, and 3) online imbalanced label distribution shifts, which are quite common in practice. In this paper, we investigate the unstable reasons and find that the batch norm layer is a crucial factor hindering TTA stability. Conversely, TTA can perform more stably with batch-agnostic norm layers, \ie, group or layer norm. However, we observe that TTA with group and layer norms does not always succeed and still suffers many failure cases. By digging into the failure cases, we find that certain noisy test samples with large gradients may disturb the model adaption and result in collapsed trivial solutions, \ie, assigning the same class label for all samples. To address the above collapse issue, we propose a sharpness-aware and reliable entropy minimization method, called SAR, for further stabilizing TTA from two aspects: 1) remove partial noisy samples with large gradients, 2) encourage model weights to go to a flat minimum so that the model is robust to the remaining noisy samples. Promising results demonstrate that SAR performs more stably over prior methods and is computationally efficient under the above wild test scenarios.

This paper first answers the question "why do the two most powerful techniques Dropout and Batch Normalization (BN) often lead to a worse performance when they are combined together?" in both theoretical and statistical aspects. Theoretically, we find that Dropout would shift the variance of a specific neural unit when we transfer the state of that network from train to test. However, BN would maintain its statistical variance, which is accumulated from the entire learning procedure, in the test phase. The inconsistency of that variance (we name this scheme as "variance shift") causes the unstable numerical behavior in inference that leads to more erroneous predictions finally, when applying Dropout before BN. Thorough experiments on DenseNet, ResNet, ResNeXt and Wide ResNet confirm our findings. According to the uncovered mechanism, we next explore several strategies that modifies Dropout and try to overcome the limitations of their combination by avoiding the variance shift risks.

Memorization, or the tendency of large language models (LLMs) to output entire sequences from their training data verbatim, is a key concern for safely deploying language models. In particular, it is vital to minimize a model's memorization of sensitive datapoints such as those containing personal identifiable information (PII). The prevalence of such undesirable memorization can pose issues for model trainers, and may even require discarding an otherwise functional model. We therefore seek to predict which sequences will be memorized before a large model's full train-time by extrapolating the memorization behavior of lower-compute trial runs. We measure memorization of the Pythia model suite and plot scaling laws for forecasting memorization, allowing us to provide equi-compute recommendations to maximize the reliability (recall) of such predictions. We additionally provide further novel discoveries on the distribution of memorization scores across models and data. We release all code and data necessary to reproduce the results in this paper at https://github.com/EleutherAI/pythia

Large language models can memorize and repeat their training data, causing privacy and copyright risks. To mitigate memorization, we introduce a subtle modification to the next-token training objective that we call the goldfish loss. During training, a randomly sampled subset of tokens are excluded from the loss computation. These dropped tokens are not memorized by the model, which prevents verbatim reproduction of a complete chain of tokens from the training set. We run extensive experiments training billion-scale Llama-2 models, both pre-trained and trained from scratch, and demonstrate significant reductions in extractable memorization with little to no impact on downstream benchmarks.

Using the weights of trained Neural Network (NN) models as data modality has recently gained traction as a research field - dubbed Weight Space Learning (WSL). Multiple recent works propose WSL methods to analyze models, evaluate methods, or synthesize weights. Weight space learning methods require populations of trained models as datasets for development and evaluation. However, existing collections of models - called `model zoos' - are unstructured or follow a rudimentary definition of diversity. In parallel, work rooted in statistical physics has identified phases and phase transitions in NN models. Models are homogeneous within the same phase but qualitatively differ from one phase to another. We combine the idea of `model zoos' with phase information to create a controlled notion of diversity in populations. We introduce 12 large-scale zoos that systematically cover known phases and vary over model architecture, size, and datasets. These datasets cover different modalities, such as computer vision, natural language processing, and scientific ML. For every model, we compute loss landscape metrics and validate full coverage of the phases. With this dataset, we provide the community with a resource with a wide range of potential applications for WSL and beyond. Evidence suggests the loss landscape phase plays a role in applications such as model training, analysis, or sparsification. We demonstrate this in an exploratory study of the downstream methods like transfer learning or model weights averaging.

We derive a simple and model-independent formula for the change in the generalization gap due to a gradient descent update. We then compare the change in the test error for stochastic gradient descent to the change in test error from an equivalent number of gradient descent updates and show explicitly that stochastic gradient descent acts to regularize generalization error by decorrelating nearby updates. These calculations depends on the details of the model only through the mean and covariance of the gradient distribution, which may be readily measured for particular models of interest. We discuss further improvements to these calculations and comment on possible implications for stochastic optimization.

Most offline reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms return a target policy maximizing a trade-off between (1) the expected performance gain over the behavior policy that collected the dataset, and (2) the risk stemming from the out-of-distribution-ness of the induced state-action occupancy. It follows that the performance of the target policy is strongly related to the performance of the behavior policy and, thus, the trajectory return distribution of the dataset. We show that in mixed datasets consisting of mostly low-return trajectories and minor high-return trajectories, state-of-the-art offline RL algorithms are overly restrained by low-return trajectories and fail to exploit high-performing trajectories to the fullest. To overcome this issue, we show that, in deterministic MDPs with stochastic initial states, the dataset sampling can be re-weighted to induce an artificial dataset whose behavior policy has a higher return. This re-weighted sampling strategy may be combined with any offline RL algorithm. We further analyze that the opportunity for performance improvement over the behavior policy correlates with the positive-sided variance of the returns of the trajectories in the dataset. We empirically show that while CQL, IQL, and TD3+BC achieve only a part of this potential policy improvement, these same algorithms combined with our reweighted sampling strategy fully exploit the dataset. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate that, despite its theoretical limitation, the approach may still be efficient in stochastic environments. The code is available at https://github.com/Improbable-AI/harness-offline-rl.

In deep learning, often the training process finds an interpolator (a solution with 0 training loss), but the test loss is still low. This phenomenon, known as benign overfitting, is a major mystery that received a lot of recent attention. One common mechanism for benign overfitting is implicit regularization, where the training process leads to additional properties for the interpolator, often characterized by minimizing certain norms. However, even for a simple sparse linear regression problem y = beta^{*top} x +xi with sparse beta^*, neither minimum ell_1 or ell_2 norm interpolator gives the optimal test loss. In this work, we give a different parametrization of the model which leads to a new implicit regularization effect that combines the benefit of ell_1 and ell_2 interpolators. We show that training our new model via gradient descent leads to an interpolator with near-optimal test loss. Our result is based on careful analysis of the training dynamics and provides another example of implicit regularization effect that goes beyond norm minimization.

A large-scale deep model pre-trained on massive labeled or unlabeled data transfers well to downstream tasks. Linear evaluation freezes parameters in the pre-trained model and trains a linear classifier separately, which is efficient and attractive for transfer. However, little work has investigated the classifier in linear evaluation except for the default logistic regression. Inspired by the statistical efficiency of naive Bayes, the paper revisits the classical topic on discriminative vs. generative classifiers. Theoretically, the paper considers the surrogate loss instead of the zero-one loss in analyses and generalizes the classical results from binary cases to multiclass ones. We show that, under mild assumptions, multiclass naive Bayes requires O(log n) samples to approach its asymptotic error while the corresponding multiclass logistic regression requires O(n) samples, where n is the feature dimension. To establish it, we present a multiclass H-consistency bound framework and an explicit bound for logistic loss, which are of independent interests. Simulation results on a mixture of Gaussian validate our theoretical findings. Experiments on various pre-trained deep vision models show that naive Bayes consistently converges faster as the number of data increases. Besides, naive Bayes shows promise in few-shot cases and we observe the "two regimes" phenomenon in pre-trained supervised models. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/Revisiting-Dis-vs-Gen-Classifiers.

Spatio-temporal forecasting is essential for real-world applications such as traffic management and urban computing. Although recent methods have shown improved accuracy, they often fail to account for dynamic deviations between current inputs and historical patterns. These deviations contain critical signals that can significantly affect model performance. To fill this gap, we propose ST-SSDL, a Spatio-Temporal time series forecasting framework that incorporates a Self-Supervised Deviation Learning scheme to capture and utilize such deviations. ST-SSDL anchors each input to its historical average and discretizes the latent space using learnable prototypes that represent typical spatio-temporal patterns. Two auxiliary objectives are proposed to refine this structure: a contrastive loss that enhances inter-prototype discriminability and a deviation loss that regularizes the distance consistency between input representations and corresponding prototypes to quantify deviation. Optimized jointly with the forecasting objective, these components guide the model to organize its hidden space and improve generalization across diverse input conditions. Experiments on six benchmark datasets show that ST-SSDL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiple metrics. Visualizations further demonstrate its ability to adaptively respond to varying levels of deviation in complex spatio-temporal scenarios. Our code and datasets are available at https://github.com/Jimmy-7664/ST-SSDL.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) intends to adapt the pretrained model to test distributions with only unlabeled test data streams. Most of the previous TTA methods have achieved great success on simple test data streams such as independently sampled data from single or multiple distributions. However, these attempts may fail in dynamic scenarios of real-world applications like autonomous driving, where the environments gradually change and the test data is sampled correlatively over time. In this work, we explore such practical test data streams to deploy the model on the fly, namely practical test-time adaptation (PTTA). To do so, we elaborate a Robust Test-Time Adaptation (RoTTA) method against the complex data stream in PTTA. More specifically, we present a robust batch normalization scheme to estimate the normalization statistics. Meanwhile, a memory bank is utilized to sample category-balanced data with consideration of timeliness and uncertainty. Further, to stabilize the training procedure, we develop a time-aware reweighting strategy with a teacher-student model. Extensive experiments prove that RoTTA enables continual testtime adaptation on the correlatively sampled data streams. Our method is easy to implement, making it a good choice for rapid deployment. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/BIT-DA/RoTTA

Robust pedestrian trajectory forecasting is crucial to developing safe autonomous vehicles. Although previous works have studied adversarial robustness in the context of trajectory forecasting, some significant issues remain unaddressed. In this work, we try to tackle these crucial problems. Firstly, the previous definitions of robustness in trajectory prediction are ambiguous. We thus provide formal definitions for two kinds of robustness, namely label robustness and pure robustness. Secondly, as previous works fail to consider robustness about all points in a disturbance interval, we utilise a probably approximately correct (PAC) framework for robustness verification. Additionally, this framework can not only identify potential counterexamples, but also provides interpretable analyses of the original methods. Our approach is applied using a prototype tool named TrajPAC. With TrajPAC, we evaluate the robustness of four state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models -- Trajectron++, MemoNet, AgentFormer, and MID -- on trajectories from five scenes of the ETH/UCY dataset and scenes of the Stanford Drone Dataset. Using our framework, we also experimentally study various factors that could influence robustness performance.

Recently, a series of papers proposed deep learning-based approaches to sample from unnormalized target densities using controlled diffusion processes. In this work, we identify these approaches as special cases of the Schr\"odinger bridge problem, seeking the most likely stochastic evolution between a given prior distribution and the specified target. We further generalize this framework by introducing a variational formulation based on divergences between path space measures of time-reversed diffusion processes. This abstract perspective leads to practical losses that can be optimized by gradient-based algorithms and includes previous objectives as special cases. At the same time, it allows us to consider divergences other than the reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence that is known to suffer from mode collapse. In particular, we propose the so-called log-variance loss, which exhibits favorable numerical properties and leads to significantly improved performance across all considered approaches.

Diffusion transformers (DiT) have already achieved appealing synthesis and scaling properties in content recreation, e.g., image and video generation. However, scaling laws of DiT are less explored, which usually offer precise predictions regarding optimal model size and data requirements given a specific compute budget. Therefore, experiments across a broad range of compute budgets, from 1e17 to 6e18 FLOPs are conducted to confirm the existence of scaling laws in DiT for the first time. Concretely, the loss of pretraining DiT also follows a power-law relationship with the involved compute. Based on the scaling law, we can not only determine the optimal model size and required data but also accurately predict the text-to-image generation loss given a model with 1B parameters and a compute budget of 1e21 FLOPs. Additionally, we also demonstrate that the trend of pre-training loss matches the generation performances (e.g., FID), even across various datasets, which complements the mapping from compute to synthesis quality and thus provides a predictable benchmark that assesses model performance and data quality at a reduced cost.

Adapting to concept drift is a challenging task in machine learning, which is usually tackled using incremental learning techniques that periodically re-fit a learning model leveraging newly available data. A primary limitation of these techniques is their reliance on substantial amounts of data for retraining. The necessity of acquiring fresh data introduces temporal delays prior to retraining, potentially rendering the models inaccurate if a sudden concept drift occurs in-between two consecutive retrainings. In communication networks, such issue emerges when performing traffic forecasting following a~failure event: post-failure re-routing may induce a drastic shift in distribution and pattern of traffic data, thus requiring a timely model adaptation. In this work, we address this challenge for the problem of traffic forecasting and propose an approach that exploits adaptive learning algorithms, namely, liquid neural networks, which are capable of self-adaptation to abrupt changes in data patterns without requiring any retraining. Through extensive simulations of failure scenarios, we compare the predictive performance of our proposed approach to that of a reference method based on incremental learning. Experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms incremental learning-based methods in situations where the shifts in traffic patterns are drastic.

Training vision or language models on large datasets can take days, if not weeks. We show that averaging the weights of the k latest checkpoints, each collected at the end of an epoch, can speed up the training progression in terms of loss and accuracy by dozens of epochs, corresponding to time savings up to ~68 and ~30 GPU hours when training a ResNet50 on ImageNet and RoBERTa-Base model on WikiText-103, respectively. We also provide the code and model checkpoint trajectory to reproduce the results and facilitate research on reusing historical weights for faster convergence.

We propose and test the LLM Brain Rot Hypothesis: continual exposure to junk web text induces lasting cognitive decline in large language models (LLMs). To causally isolate data quality, we run controlled experiments on real Twitter/X corpora, constructing junk and reversely controlled datasets via two orthogonal operationalizations: M1 (engagement degree) and M2 (semantic quality), with matched token scale and training operations across conditions. Contrary to the control group, continual pre-training of 4 LLMs on the junk dataset causes non-trivial declines (Hedges' g>0.3) on reasoning, long-context understanding, safety, and inflating "dark traits" (e.g., psychopathy, narcissism). The gradual mixtures of junk and control datasets also yield dose-response cognition decay: for example, under M1, ARC-Challenge with Chain Of Thoughts drops 74.9 rightarrow 57.2 and RULER-CWE 84.4 rightarrow 52.3 as junk ratio rises from 0% to 100%. Error forensics reveal several key insights. First, we identify thought-skipping as the primary lesion: models increasingly truncate or skip reasoning chains, explaining most of the error growth. Second, partial but incomplete healing is observed: scaling instruction tuning and clean data pre-training improve the declined cognition yet cannot restore baseline capability, suggesting persistent representational drift rather than format mismatch. Finally, we discover that the popularity, a non-semantic metric, of a tweet is a better indicator of the Brain Rot effect than the length in M1. Together, the results provide significant, multi-perspective evidence that data quality is a causal driver of LLM capability decay, reframing curation for continual pretraining as a training-time safety problem and motivating routine "cognitive health checks" for deployed LLMs.

Latent diffusion models (LDMs) power state-of-the-art high-resolution generative image models. LDMs learn the data distribution in the latent space of an autoencoder (AE) and produce images by mapping the generated latents into RGB image space using the AE decoder. While this approach allows for efficient model training and sampling, it induces a disconnect between the training of the diffusion model and the decoder, resulting in a loss of detail in the generated images. To remediate this disconnect, we propose to leverage the internal features of the decoder to define a latent perceptual loss (LPL). This loss encourages the models to create sharper and more realistic images. Our loss can be seamlessly integrated with common autoencoders used in latent diffusion models, and can be applied to different generative modeling paradigms such as DDPM with epsilon and velocity prediction, as well as flow matching. Extensive experiments with models trained on three datasets at 256 and 512 resolution show improved quantitative -- with boosts between 6% and 20% in FID -- and qualitative results when using our perceptual loss.

A significant body of recent research in the field of Learning Analytics has focused on leveraging machine learning approaches for predicting at-risk students in order to initiate timely interventions and thereby elevate retention and completion rates. The overarching feature of the majority of these research studies has been on the science of prediction only. The component of predictive analytics concerned with interpreting the internals of the models and explaining their predictions for individual cases to stakeholders has largely been neglected. Additionally, works that attempt to employ data-driven prescriptive analytics to automatically generate evidence-based remedial advice for at-risk learners are in their infancy. eXplainable AI is a field that has recently emerged providing cutting-edge tools which support transparent predictive analytics and techniques for generating tailored advice for at-risk students. This study proposes a novel framework that unifies both transparent machine learning as well as techniques for enabling prescriptive analytics, while integrating the latest advances in large language models. This work practically demonstrates the proposed framework using predictive models for identifying at-risk learners of programme non-completion. The study then further demonstrates how predictive modelling can be augmented with prescriptive analytics on two case studies in order to generate human-readable prescriptive feedback for those who are at risk using ChatGPT.

Language models (LMs) have been shown to memorize a great deal of factual knowledge contained in their training data. But when an LM generates an assertion, it is often difficult to determine where it learned this information and whether it is true. In this paper, we propose the problem of fact tracing: identifying which training examples taught an LM to generate a particular factual assertion. Prior work on training data attribution (TDA) may offer effective tools for identifying such examples, known as "proponents". We present the first quantitative benchmark to evaluate this. We compare two popular families of TDA methods -- gradient-based and embedding-based -- and find that much headroom remains. For example, both methods have lower proponent-retrieval precision than an information retrieval baseline (BM25) that does not have access to the LM at all. We identify key challenges that may be necessary for further improvement such as overcoming the problem of gradient saturation, and also show how several nuanced implementation details of existing neural TDA methods can significantly improve overall fact tracing performance.

Multi-agent systems powered by Large Language Models excel at complex tasks through coordinated collaboration, yet they face high failure rates in multi-turn deep search scenarios. Existing temporal attribution methods struggle to accurately diagnose root causes, particularly when errors propagate across multiple agents. Attempts to automate failure attribution by analyzing action sequences remain ineffective due to their inability to account for information dependencies that span agents. This paper identifies two core challenges: (i) distinguishing symptoms from root causes in multi-agent error propagation, and (ii) tracing information dependencies beyond temporal order. To address these issues, we introduce GraphTracer, a framework that redefines failure attribution through information flow analysis. GraphTracer constructs Information Dependency Graphs (IDGs) to explicitly capture how agents reference and build on prior outputs. It localizes root causes by tracing through these dependency structures instead of relying on temporal sequences. GraphTracer also uses graph-aware synthetic data generation to target critical nodes, creating realistic failure scenarios. Evaluations on the Who\&When benchmark and integration into production systems demonstrate that GraphTracer-8B achieves up to 18.18\% higher attribution accuracy compared to state-of-the-art models and enables 4.8\% to 14.2\% performance improvements in deployed multi-agent frameworks, establishing a robust solution for multi-agent system debugging.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

This paper studies the problem of training a two-layer ReLU network for binary classification using gradient flow with small initialization. We consider a training dataset with well-separated input vectors: Any pair of input data with the same label are positively correlated, and any pair with different labels are negatively correlated. Our analysis shows that, during the early phase of training, neurons in the first layer try to align with either the positive data or the negative data, depending on its corresponding weight on the second layer. A careful analysis of the neurons' directional dynamics allows us to provide an O(log n{mu}) upper bound on the time it takes for all neurons to achieve good alignment with the input data, where n is the number of data points and mu measures how well the data are separated. After the early alignment phase, the loss converges to zero at a O(1{t}) rate, and the weight matrix on the first layer is approximately low-rank. Numerical experiments on the MNIST dataset illustrate our theoretical findings.

In representation learning, uniformity refers to the uniform feature distribution in the latent space (i.e., unit hypersphere). Previous work has shown that improving uniformity contributes to the learning of under-represented classes. However, most of the previous work focused on classification; the representation space of imbalanced regression remains unexplored. Classification-based methods are not suitable for regression tasks because they cluster features into distinct groups without considering the continuous and ordered nature essential for regression. In a geometric aspect, we uniquely focus on ensuring uniformity in the latent space for imbalanced regression through two key losses: enveloping and homogeneity. The enveloping loss encourages the induced trace to uniformly occupy the surface of a hypersphere, while the homogeneity loss ensures smoothness, with representations evenly spaced at consistent intervals. Our method integrates these geometric principles into the data representations via a Surrogate-driven Representation Learning (SRL) framework. Experiments with real-world regression and operator learning tasks highlight the importance of uniformity in imbalanced regression and validate the efficacy of our geometry-based loss functions.

We consider the solvable neural scaling model with three parameters: data complexity, target complexity, and model-parameter-count. We use this neural scaling model to derive new predictions about the compute-limited, infinite-data scaling law regime. To train the neural scaling model, we run one-pass stochastic gradient descent on a mean-squared loss. We derive a representation of the loss curves which holds over all iteration counts and improves in accuracy as the model parameter count grows. We then analyze the compute-optimal model-parameter-count, and identify 4 phases (+3 subphases) in the data-complexity/target-complexity phase-plane. The phase boundaries are determined by the relative importance of model capacity, optimizer noise, and embedding of the features. We furthermore derive, with mathematical proof and extensive numerical evidence, the scaling-law exponents in all of these phases, in particular computing the optimal model-parameter-count as a function of floating point operation budget.

A number of computer vision deep regression approaches report improved results when adding a classification loss to the regression loss. Here, we explore why this is useful in practice and when it is beneficial. To do so, we start from precisely controlled dataset variations and data samplings and find that the effect of adding a classification loss is the most pronounced for regression with imbalanced data. We explain these empirical findings by formalizing the relation between the balanced and imbalanced regression losses. Finally, we show that our findings hold on two real imbalanced image datasets for depth estimation (NYUD2-DIR), and age estimation (IMDB-WIKI-DIR), and on the problem of imbalanced video progress prediction (Breakfast). Our main takeaway is: for a regression task, if the data sampling is imbalanced, then add a classification loss.

Missing instances in time series data impose a significant challenge to deep learning models, particularly in regression tasks. In the Earth Observation field, satellite failure or cloud occlusion frequently results in missing time-steps, introducing uncertainties in the predicted output and causing a decline in predictive performance. While many studies address missing time-steps through data augmentation to improve model robustness, the uncertainty arising at the input level is commonly overlooked. To address this gap, we introduce Monte Carlo Temporal Dropout (MC-TD), a method that explicitly accounts for input-level uncertainty by randomly dropping time-steps during inference using a predefined dropout ratio, thereby simulating the effect of missing data. To bypass the need for costly searches for the optimal dropout ratio, we extend this approach with Monte Carlo Concrete Temporal Dropout (MC-ConcTD), a method that learns the optimal dropout distribution directly. Both MC-TD and MC-ConcTD are applied during inference, leveraging Monte Carlo sampling for uncertainty quantification. Experiments on three EO time-series datasets demonstrate that MC-ConcTD improves predictive performance and uncertainty calibration compared to existing approaches. Additionally, we highlight the advantages of adaptive dropout tuning over manual selection, making uncertainty quantification more robust and accessible for EO applications.

Machine learning models often experience performance degradation post-deployment due to shifts in data distribution. It is challenging to assess model's performance accurately when labels are missing or delayed. Existing proxy methods, such as drift detection, fail to measure the effects of these shifts adequately. To address this, we introduce a new method, Probabilistic Adaptive Performance Estimation (PAPE), for evaluating classification models on unlabeled data that accurately quantifies the impact of covariate shift on model performance. It is model and data-type agnostic and works for various performance metrics. Crucially, PAPE operates independently of the original model, relying only on its predictions and probability estimates, and does not need any assumptions about the nature of the covariate shift, learning directly from data instead. We tested PAPE on tabular data using over 900 dataset-model combinations created from US census data, assessing its performance against multiple benchmarks. Overall, PAPE provided more accurate performance estimates than other evaluated methodologies.

Differentiable Architecture Search (DARTS) has attracted a lot of attention due to its simplicity and small search costs achieved by a continuous relaxation and an approximation of the resulting bi-level optimization problem. However, DARTS does not work robustly for new problems: we identify a wide range of search spaces for which DARTS yields degenerate architectures with very poor test performance. We study this failure mode and show that, while DARTS successfully minimizes validation loss, the found solutions generalize poorly when they coincide with high validation loss curvature in the architecture space. We show that by adding one of various types of regularization we can robustify DARTS to find solutions with less curvature and better generalization properties. Based on these observations, we propose several simple variations of DARTS that perform substantially more robustly in practice. Our observations are robust across five search spaces on three image classification tasks and also hold for the very different domains of disparity estimation (a dense regression task) and language modelling.

The variational autoencoder (VAE) framework is a popular option for training unsupervised generative models, featuring ease of training and latent representation of data. The objective function of VAE does not guarantee to achieve the latter, however, and failure to do so leads to a frequent failure mode called posterior collapse. Even in successful cases, VAEs often result in low-precision reconstructions and generated samples. The introduction of the KL-divergence weight beta can help steer the model clear of posterior collapse, but its tuning is often a trial-and-error process with no guiding metrics. Here we test the idea of using the total VAE loss of generated samples (generated loss) as the proxy metric for generation quality, the related hypothesis that VAE reconstruction from the mean latent vector tends to be a more typical example of its class than the original, and the idea of exploiting this property by augmenting training data with generated variants (augmented training). The results are mixed, but repeated encoding and decoding indeed result in qualitatively and quantitatively more typical examples from both convolutional and fully-connected MNIST VAEs, suggesting that it may be an inherent property of the VAE framework.

Efficient and accurate motion prediction is crucial for ensuring safety and informed decision-making in autonomous driving, particularly under dynamic real-world conditions that necessitate multi-modal forecasts. We introduce TrajFlow, a novel flow matching-based motion prediction framework that addresses the scalability and efficiency challenges of existing generative trajectory prediction methods. Unlike conventional generative approaches that employ i.i.d. sampling and require multiple inference passes to capture diverse outcomes, TrajFlow predicts multiple plausible future trajectories in a single pass, significantly reducing computational overhead while maintaining coherence across predictions. Moreover, we propose a ranking loss based on the Plackett-Luce distribution to improve uncertainty estimation of predicted trajectories. Additionally, we design a self-conditioning training technique that reuses the model's own predictions to construct noisy inputs during a second forward pass, thereby improving generalization and accelerating inference. Extensive experiments on the large-scale Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) demonstrate that TrajFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance across various key metrics, underscoring its effectiveness for safety-critical autonomous driving applications. The code and other details are available on the project website https://traj-flow.github.io/.

Test-time compute scaling has emerged as a new axis along which to improve model accuracy, where additional computation is used at inference time to allow the model to think longer for more challenging problems. One promising approach for test-time compute scaling is search against a process reward model, where a model generates multiple potential candidates at each step of the search, and these partial trajectories are then scored by a separate reward model in order to guide the search process. The diversity of trajectories in the tree search process affects the accuracy of the search, since increasing diversity promotes more exploration. However, this diversity comes at a cost, as divergent trajectories have less KV sharing, which means they consume more memory and slow down the search process. Previous search methods either do not perform sufficient exploration, or else explore diverse trajectories but have high latency. We address this challenge by proposing Efficient Tree Search (ETS), which promotes KV sharing by pruning redundant trajectories while maintaining necessary diverse trajectories. ETS incorporates a linear programming cost model to promote KV cache sharing by penalizing the number of nodes retained, while incorporating a semantic coverage term into the cost model to ensure that we retain trajectories which are semantically different. We demonstrate how ETS can achieve 1.8times reduction in average KV cache size during the search process, leading to 1.4times increased throughput relative to prior state-of-the-art methods, with minimal accuracy degradation and without requiring any custom kernel implementation. Code is available at: https://github.com/SqueezeAILab/ETS.

Prior work has analyzed the robustness of visual encoders to image transformations and corruptions, particularly in cases where such alterations are not seen during training. When this occurs, they introduce a form of distribution shift at test time, often leading to performance degradation. The primary focus has been on severe corruptions that, when applied aggressively, distort useful signals necessary for accurate semantic predictions. We take a different perspective by analyzing parameters of the image acquisition process and transformations that may be subtle or even imperceptible to the human eye. We find that such parameters are systematically encoded in the learned visual representations and can be easily recovered. More strikingly, their presence can have a profound impact, either positively or negatively, on semantic predictions. This effect depends on whether there is a strong correlation or anti-correlation between semantic labels and these acquisition-based or processing-based labels. Our code and data are available at: https://github.com/ryan-caesar-ramos/visual-encoder-traces

Interpretability and explainability of deep neural networks are challenging due to their scale, complexity, and the agreeable notions on which the explaining process rests. Previous work, in particular, has focused on representing internal components of neural networks through human-friendly visuals and concepts. On the other hand, in real life, when making a decision, human tends to rely on similar situations and/or associations in the past. Hence arguably, a promising approach to make the model transparent is to design it in a way such that the model explicitly connects the current sample with the seen ones, and bases its decision on these samples. Grounded on that principle, we propose in this paper an explainable, evidence-based memory network architecture, which learns to summarize the dataset and extract supporting evidences to make its decision. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on two popular question answering datasets (i.e. TrecQA and WikiQA). Via further analysis, we show that this model can reliably trace the errors it has made in the validation step to the training instances that might have caused these errors. We believe that this error-tracing capability provides significant benefit in improving dataset quality in many applications.

Loss landscape is a useful tool to characterize and compare neural network models. The main challenge for analysis of loss landscape for the deep neural networks is that they are generally highly non-convex in very high dimensional space. In this paper, we develop "the roughness"concept for understanding such landscapes in high dimensions and apply this technique to study two neural network models arising from solving differential equations. Our main innovation is the proposal of a well-defined and easy-to-compute roughness index (RI) which is based on the mean and variance of the (normalized) total variation for one-dimensional functions projected on randomly sampled directions. A large RI at the local minimizer hints an oscillatory landscape profile and indicates a severe challenge for the first-order optimization method. Particularly, we observe the increasing-then-decreasing pattern for RI along the gradient descent path in most models. We apply our method to two types of loss functions used to solve partial differential equations (PDEs) when the solution of PDE is parametrized by neural networks. Our empirical results on these PDE problems reveal important and consistent observations that the landscapes from the deep Galerkin method around its local minimizers are less rough than the deep Ritz method.

Existing Score Distillation Sampling (SDS)-based methods have driven significant progress in text-to-3D generation. However, 3D models produced by SDS-based methods tend to exhibit over-smoothing and low-quality outputs. These issues arise from the mode-seeking behavior of current methods, where the scores used to update the model oscillate between multiple modes, resulting in unstable optimization and diminished output quality. To address this problem, we introduce a novel image prompt score distillation loss named ISD, which employs a reference image to direct text-to-3D optimization toward a specific mode. Our ISD loss can be implemented by using IP-Adapter, a lightweight adapter for integrating image prompt capability to a text-to-image diffusion model, as a mode-selection module. A variant of this adapter, when not being prompted by a reference image, can serve as an efficient control variate to reduce variance in score estimates, thereby enhancing both output quality and optimization stability. Our experiments demonstrate that the ISD loss consistently achieves visually coherent, high-quality outputs and improves optimization speed compared to prior text-to-3D methods, as demonstrated through both qualitative and quantitative evaluations on the T3Bench benchmark suite.

In many environments only a tiny subset of all states yield high reward. In these cases, few of the interactions with the environment provide a relevant learning signal. Hence, we may want to preferentially train on those high-reward states and the probable trajectories leading to them. To this end, we advocate for the use of a backtracking model that predicts the preceding states that terminate at a given high-reward state. We can train a model which, starting from a high value state (or one that is estimated to have high value), predicts and sample for which the (state, action)-tuples may have led to that high value state. These traces of (state, action) pairs, which we refer to as Recall Traces, sampled from this backtracking model starting from a high value state, are informative as they terminate in good states, and hence we can use these traces to improve a policy. We provide a variational interpretation for this idea and a practical algorithm in which the backtracking model samples from an approximate posterior distribution over trajectories which lead to large rewards. Our method improves the sample efficiency of both on- and off-policy RL algorithms across several environments and tasks.

Best-of-N (BoN) Average Displacement Error (ADE)/ Final Displacement Error (FDE) is the most used metric for evaluating trajectory prediction models. Yet, the BoN does not quantify the whole generated samples, resulting in an incomplete view of the model's prediction quality and performance. We propose a new metric, Average Mahalanobis Distance (AMD) to tackle this issue. AMD is a metric that quantifies how close the whole generated samples are to the ground truth. We also introduce the Average Maximum Eigenvalue (AMV) metric that quantifies the overall spread of the predictions. Our metrics are validated empirically by showing that the ADE/FDE is not sensitive to distribution shifts, giving a biased sense of accuracy, unlike the AMD/AMV metrics. We introduce the usage of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) as a replacement for traditional generative models to train our model, Social-Implicit. IMLE training mechanism aligns with AMD/AMV objective of predicting trajectories that are close to the ground truth with a tight spread. Social-Implicit is a memory efficient deep model with only 5.8K parameters that runs in real time of about 580Hz and achieves competitive results. Interactive demo of the problem can be seen at https://www.abduallahmohamed.com/social-implicit-amdamv-adefde-demo . Code is available at https://github.com/abduallahmohamed/Social-Implicit .

Large Language Models (LLMs) can achieve enhanced complex problem-solving through test-time computing scaling, yet this often entails longer contexts and numerous reasoning token costs. In this paper, we propose an efficient test-time scaling method that trains LLMs on code-related reasoning trajectories, facilitating their reduction of excess thinking tokens while maintaining performance. First, we create Z1-Code-Reasoning-107K, a curated dataset of simple and complex coding problems paired with their short and long solution trajectories. Second, we present a novel Shifted Thinking Window to mitigate overthinking overhead by removing context-delimiting tags (e.g., <think>. . . </think>) and capping reasoning tokens. Trained with long and short trajectory data and equipped with Shifted Thinking Window, our model, Z1-7B, demonstrates the ability to adjust its reasoning level as the complexity of problems and exhibits efficient test-time scaling across different reasoning tasks that matches R1-Distill-Qwen-7B performance with about 30% of its average thinking tokens. Notably, fine-tuned with only code trajectories, Z1-7B demonstrates generalization to broader reasoning tasks (47.5% on GPQA Diamond). Our analysis of efficient reasoning elicitation also provides valuable insights for future research.

Loss spikes often occur during pre-training of large language models. The spikes degrade the performance of large language models and sometimes ruin the pre-training. Since the pre-training needs a vast computational budget, we should avoid such spikes. To investigate the cause of loss spikes, we focus on gradients of internal layers. Through theoretical analyses, we reveal two causes of the exploding gradients, and provide requirements to prevent the explosion. In addition, we propose a method to satisfy the requirements by combining the initialization method and a simple modification to embeddings. We conduct various experiments to verify our theoretical analyses empirically. Experimental results indicate that the combination is effective in preventing spikes during pre-training.

We study the problem of estimating the distribution of the return of a policy using an offline dataset that is not generated from the policy, i.e., distributional offline policy evaluation (OPE). We propose an algorithm called Fitted Likelihood Estimation (FLE), which conducts a sequence of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and has the flexibility of integrating any state-of-the-art probabilistic generative models as long as it can be trained via MLE. FLE can be used for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings where rewards can be multi-dimensional vectors. Our theoretical results show that for both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon discounted settings, FLE can learn distributions that are close to the ground truth under total variation distance and Wasserstein distance, respectively. Our theoretical results hold under the conditions that the offline data covers the test policy's traces and that the supervised learning MLE procedures succeed. Experimentally, we demonstrate the performance of FLE with two generative models, Gaussian mixture models and diffusion models. For the multi-dimensional reward setting, FLE with diffusion models is capable of estimating the complicated distribution of the return of a test policy.

Deep learning models achieve state-of-the art results in predicting blood glucose trajectories, with a wide range of architectures being proposed. However, the adaptation of such models in clinical practice is slow, largely due to the lack of uncertainty quantification of provided predictions. In this work, we propose to model the future glucose trajectory conditioned on the past as an infinite mixture of basis distributions (i.e., Gaussian, Laplace, etc.). This change allows us to learn the uncertainty and predict more accurately in the cases when the trajectory has a heterogeneous or multi-modal distribution. To estimate the parameters of the predictive distribution, we utilize the Transformer architecture. We empirically demonstrate the superiority of our method over existing state-of-the-art techniques both in terms of accuracy and uncertainty on the synthetic and benchmark glucose data sets.

On a variety of tasks, the performance of neural networks predictably improves with training time, dataset size and model size across many orders of magnitude. This phenomenon is known as a neural scaling law. Of fundamental importance is the compute-optimal scaling law, which reports the performance as a function of units of compute when choosing model sizes optimally. We analyze a random feature model trained with gradient descent as a solvable model of network training and generalization. This reproduces many observations about neural scaling laws. First, our model makes a prediction about why the scaling of performance with training time and with model size have different power law exponents. Consequently, the theory predicts an asymmetric compute-optimal scaling rule where the number of training steps are increased faster than model parameters, consistent with recent empirical observations. Second, it has been observed that early in training, networks converge to their infinite-width dynamics at a rate 1/width but at late time exhibit a rate width^{-c}, where c depends on the structure of the architecture and task. We show that our model exhibits this behavior. Lastly, our theory shows how the gap between training and test loss can gradually build up over time due to repeated reuse of data.

Understanding alignment techniques begins with comprehending zero-shot generalization brought by instruction tuning, but little of the mechanism has been understood. Existing work has largely been confined to the task level, without considering that tasks are artificially defined and, to LLMs, merely consist of tokens and representations. To bridge this gap, we investigate zero-shot generalization from the perspective of the data itself. We first demonstrate that zero-shot generalization happens very early during instruction tuning, with loss serving as a stable indicator. Next, we investigate training data arrangement through similarity and granularity perspectives, confirming that the timing of exposure to certain training examples may greatly facilitate generalization on unseen tasks. Finally, we propose a more grounded training data arrangement framework, Test-centric Multi-turn Arrangement, and show its effectiveness in promoting continual learning and further loss reduction. For the first time, we show that zero-shot generalization during instruction tuning is a form of similarity-based generalization between training and test data at the instance level. Our code is released at https://github.com/thunlp/Dynamics-of-Zero-Shot-Generalization.

Time Series Imputation (TSI), which aims to recover missing values in temporal data, remains a fundamental challenge due to the complex and often high-rate missingness in real-world scenarios. Existing models typically optimize the point-wise reconstruction loss, focusing on recovering numerical values (local information). However, we observe that under high missing rates, these models still perform well in the training phase yet produce poor imputations and distorted latent representation distributions (global information) in the inference phase. This reveals a critical optimization dilemma: current objectives lack global guidance, leading models to overfit local noise and fail to capture global information of the data. To address this issue, we propose a new training paradigm, Glocal Information Bottleneck (Glocal-IB). Glocal-IB is model-agnostic and extends the standard IB framework by introducing a Global Alignment loss, derived from a tractable mutual information approximation. This loss aligns the latent representations of masked inputs with those of their originally observed counterparts. It helps the model retain global structure and local details while suppressing noise caused by missing values, giving rise to better generalization under high missingness. Extensive experiments on nine datasets confirm that Glocal-IB leads to consistently improved performance and aligned latent representations under missingness. Our code implementation is available in https://github.com/Muyiiiii/NeurIPS-25-Glocal-IB.

Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) is a widely adopted technique in diffusion/flow models to improve image fidelity and controllability. In this work, we first analytically study the effect of CFG on flow matching models trained on Gaussian mixtures where the ground-truth flow can be derived. We observe that in the early stages of training, when the flow estimation is inaccurate, CFG directs samples toward incorrect trajectories. Building on this observation, we propose CFG-Zero*, an improved CFG with two contributions: (a) optimized scale, where a scalar is optimized to correct for the inaccuracies in the estimated velocity, hence the * in the name; and (b) zero-init, which involves zeroing out the first few steps of the ODE solver. Experiments on both text-to-image (Lumina-Next, Stable Diffusion 3, and Flux) and text-to-video (Wan-2.1) generation demonstrate that CFG-Zero* consistently outperforms CFG, highlighting its effectiveness in guiding Flow Matching models. (Code is available at github.com/WeichenFan/CFG-Zero-star)

Recent research shows that when Gradient Descent (GD) is applied to neural networks, the loss almost never decreases monotonically. Instead, the loss oscillates as gradient descent converges to its ''Edge of Stability'' (EoS). Here, we find a quantity that does decrease monotonically throughout GD training: the sharpness attained by the gradient flow solution (GFS)-the solution that would be obtained if, from now until convergence, we train with an infinitesimal step size. Theoretically, we analyze scalar neural networks with the squared loss, perhaps the simplest setting where the EoS phenomena still occur. In this model, we prove that the GFS sharpness decreases monotonically. Using this result, we characterize settings where GD provably converges to the EoS in scalar networks. Empirically, we show that GD monotonically decreases the GFS sharpness in a squared regression model as well as practical neural network architectures.

A family of loss functions built on pair-based computation have been proposed in the literature which provide a myriad of solutions for deep metric learning. In this paper, we provide a general weighting framework for understanding recent pair-based loss functions. Our contributions are three-fold: (1) we establish a General Pair Weighting (GPW) framework, which casts the sampling problem of deep metric learning into a unified view of pair weighting through gradient analysis, providing a powerful tool for understanding recent pair-based loss functions; (2) we show that with GPW, various existing pair-based methods can be compared and discussed comprehensively, with clear differences and key limitations identified; (3) we propose a new loss called multi-similarity loss (MS loss) under the GPW, which is implemented in two iterative steps (i.e., mining and weighting). This allows it to fully consider three similarities for pair weighting, providing a more principled approach for collecting and weighting informative pairs. Finally, the proposed MS loss obtains new state-of-the-art performance on four image retrieval benchmarks, where it outperforms the most recent approaches, such as ABEKim_2018_ECCV and HTL by a large margin: 60.6% to 65.7% on CUB200, and 80.9% to 88.0% on In-Shop Clothes Retrieval dataset at Recall@1. Code is available at https://github.com/MalongTech/research-ms-loss.

This research enhances linear regression models by integrating a Kalman filter and analysing curve areas to minimize loss. The goal is to develop an optimal linear regression equation using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for weight updating. Our approach involves a stepwise process, starting with user-defined parameters. The linear regression model is trained using SGD, tracking weights and loss separately and zipping them finally. A Kalman filter is then trained based on weight and loss arrays to predict the next consolidated weights. Predictions result from multiplying input averages with weights, evaluated for loss to form a weight-versus-loss curve. The curve's equation is derived using the two-point formula, and area under the curve is calculated via integration. The linear regression equation with minimum area becomes the optimal curve for prediction. Benefits include avoiding constant weight updates via gradient descent and working with partial datasets, unlike methods needing the entire set. However, computational complexity should be considered. The Kalman filter's accuracy might diminish beyond a certain prediction range.

Data Drift is the phenomenon where the generating model behind the data changes over time. Due to data drift, any model built on the past training data becomes less relevant and inaccurate over time. Thus, detecting and controlling for data drift is critical in machine learning models. Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) is a machine learning model developed by Jeff Hawkins, inspired by how the human brain processes information. It is a biologically inspired model of memory that is similar in structure to the neocortex, and whose performance is claimed to be comparable to state of the art models in detecting anomalies in time series data. Another unique benefit of HTMs is its independence from training and testing cycle; all the learning takes place online with streaming data and no separate training and testing cycle is required. In sequential learning paradigm, Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) offers some unique benefit for online learning and inference. This paper proposes a novel hybrid framework combining HTM and SPRT for real-time data drift detection and anomaly identification. Unlike existing data drift methods, our approach eliminates frequent retraining and ensures low false positive rates. HTMs currently work with one dimensional or univariate data. In a second study, we also propose an application of HTM in multidimensional supervised scenario for anomaly detection by combining the outputs of multiple HTM columns, one for each dimension of the data, through a neural network. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms conventional drift detection techniques like the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, Wasserstein distance, and Population Stability Index (PSI) in terms of accuracy, adaptability, and computational efficiency. Our experiments also provide insights into optimizing hyperparameters for real-time deployment in domains such as Telecom.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

Recently, test-time adaptation (TTA) has been proposed as a promising solution for addressing distribution shifts. It allows a base model to adapt to an unforeseen distribution during inference by leveraging the information from the batch of (unlabeled) test data. However, we uncover a novel security vulnerability of TTA based on the insight that predictions on benign samples can be impacted by malicious samples in the same batch. To exploit this vulnerability, we propose Distribution Invading Attack (DIA), which injects a small fraction of malicious data into the test batch. DIA causes models using TTA to misclassify benign and unperturbed test data, providing an entirely new capability for adversaries that is infeasible in canonical machine learning pipelines. Through comprehensive evaluations, we demonstrate the high effectiveness of our attack on multiple benchmarks across six TTA methods. In response, we investigate two countermeasures to robustify the existing insecure TTA implementations, following the principle of "security by design". Together, we hope our findings can make the community aware of the utility-security tradeoffs in deploying TTA and provide valuable insights for developing robust TTA approaches.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Software testing is a crucial aspect of software development, and the creation of high-quality tests that adhere to best practices is essential for effective maintenance. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have gained popularity for code generation, including the automated creation of test cases. However, these LLMs are often trained on vast amounts of publicly available code, which may include test cases that do not adhere to best practices and may even contain test smells (anti-patterns). To address this issue, we propose a novel technique called Reinforcement Learning from Static Quality Metrics (RLSQM). To begin, we analyze the anti-patterns generated by the LLM and show that LLMs can generate undesirable test smells. Thus, we train specific reward models for each static quality metric, then utilize Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) to train models for optimizing a single quality metric at a time. Furthermore, we amalgamate these rewards into a unified reward model aimed at capturing different best practices and quality aspects of tests. By comparing RL-trained models with those trained using supervised learning, we provide insights into how reliably utilize RL to improve test generation quality and into the effects of various training strategies. Our experimental results demonstrate that the RL-optimized model consistently generated high-quality test cases compared to the base LLM, improving the model by up to 21%, and successfully generates nearly 100% syntactically correct code. RLSQM also outperformed GPT-4 on four out of seven metrics. This represents a significant step towards enhancing the overall efficiency and reliability of software testing through Reinforcement Learning and static quality metrics. Our data are available at this link: https://figshare.com/s/ded476c8d4c221222849.

Neural network training is inherently sensitive to initialization and the randomness induced by stochastic gradient descent. However, it is unclear to what extent such effects lead to meaningfully different networks, either in terms of the models' weights or the underlying functions that were learned. In this work, we show that during the initial "chaotic" phase of training, even extremely small perturbations reliably causes otherwise identical training trajectories to diverge-an effect that diminishes rapidly over training time. We quantify this divergence through (i) L^2 distance between parameters, (ii) the loss barrier when interpolating between networks, (iii) L^2 and barrier between parameters after permutation alignment, and (iv) representational similarity between intermediate activations; revealing how perturbations across different hyperparameter or fine-tuning settings drive training trajectories toward distinct loss minima. Our findings provide insights into neural network training stability, with practical implications for fine-tuning, model merging, and diversity of model ensembles.

We propose a new sampler for robust estimators that always selects the sample with the highest probability of consisting only of inliers. After every unsuccessful iteration, the inlier probabilities are updated in a principled way via a Bayesian approach. The probabilities obtained by the deep network are used as prior (so-called neural guidance) inside the sampler. Moreover, we introduce a new loss that exploits, in a geometrically justifiable manner, the orientation and scale that can be estimated for any type of feature, e.g., SIFT or SuperPoint, to estimate two-view geometry. The new loss helps to learn higher-order information about the underlying scene geometry. Benefiting from the new sampler and the proposed loss, we combine the neural guidance with the state-of-the-art MAGSAC++. Adaptive Reordering Sampler with Neurally Guided MAGSAC (ARS-MAGSAC) is superior to the state-of-the-art in terms of accuracy and run-time on the PhotoTourism and KITTI datasets for essential and fundamental matrix estimation. The code and trained models are available at https://github.com/weitong8591/ars_magsac.

Standard training metrics like loss fail to explain the emergence of complex capabilities in large language models. We take a spectral approach to investigate the geometry of learned representations across pretraining and post-training, measuring effective rank (RankMe) and eigenspectrum decay (α-ReQ). With OLMo (1B-7B) and Pythia (160M-12B) models, we uncover a consistent non-monotonic sequence of three geometric phases during autoregressive pretraining. The initial "warmup" phase exhibits rapid representational collapse. This is followed by an "entropy-seeking" phase, where the manifold's dimensionality expands substantially, coinciding with peak n-gram memorization. Subsequently, a "compression-seeking" phase imposes anisotropic consolidation, selectively preserving variance along dominant eigendirections while contracting others, a transition marked with significant improvement in downstream task performance. We show these phases can emerge from a fundamental interplay of cross-entropy optimization under skewed token frequencies and representational bottlenecks (d ll |V|). Post-training further transforms geometry: SFT and DPO drive "entropy-seeking" dynamics to integrate specific instructional or preferential data, improving in-distribution performance while degrading out-of-distribution robustness. Conversely, RLVR induces "compression-seeking", enhancing reward alignment but reducing generation diversity.

We develop techniques to quantify the degree to which a given (training or testing) example is an outlier in the underlying distribution. We evaluate five methods to score examples in a dataset by how well-represented the examples are, for different plausible definitions of "well-represented", and apply these to four common datasets: MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, CIFAR-10, and ImageNet. Despite being independent approaches, we find all five are highly correlated, suggesting that the notion of being well-represented can be quantified. Among other uses, we find these methods can be combined to identify (a) prototypical examples (that match human expectations); (b) memorized training examples; and, (c) uncommon submodes of the dataset. Further, we show how we can utilize our metrics to determine an improved ordering for curriculum learning, and impact adversarial robustness. We release all metric values on training and test sets we studied.

Inspired by recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) for Natural Language Processing (NLP), there has been a surge in research focused on developing foundational models for time series forecasting. One approach involves training LLM architectures on tokenized time series data using cross-entropy loss. Although this method has demonstrated promising results, cross-entropy loss is primarily designed for classification tasks and does not account for the distance between classes. To address this limitation, we propose using the Wasserstein loss for such architectures. To validate our approach, we fine-tuned a foundational time series model on 22 zero-shot datasets, comparing the performance of cross-entropy loss with that of Wasserstein loss. Our results demonstrate that replacing cross-entropy loss with Wasserstein loss significantly improves point estimation.

In this study, we propose Feature-aligned N-BEATS as a domain generalization model for univariate time series forecasting problems. The proposed model is an extension of the doubly residual stacking architecture of N-BEATS (Oreshkin et al. [34]) into a representation learning framework. The model is a new structure that involves marginal feature probability measures (i.e., pushforward measures of multiple source domains) induced by the intricate composition of residual operators of N-BEATS in each stack and aligns them stack-wise via an entropic regularized Wasserstein distance referred to as the Sinkhorn divergence (Genevay et al. [14]). The loss function consists of a typical forecasting loss for multiple source domains and an alignment loss calculated with the Sinkhorn divergence, which allows the model to learn invariant features stack-wise across multiple source data sequences while retaining N-BEATS's interpretable design. We conduct a comprehensive experimental evaluation of the proposed approach and the results demonstrate the model's forecasting and generalization capabilities in comparison with methods based on the original N-BEATS.

While post-training quantization is widely adopted for efficient deployment of large language models, the mechanisms underlying quantization robustness remain unclear. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of quantization degradation across open-source language model training trajectories up to 32B parameters and 15T training tokens to accurately assess the relationship between training dynamics and quantization performance. Our key finding is that quantization errors in large-scale training runs are driven by a complex interplay between learning rate and other training hyperparameters. Specifically, once learning rates decay, validation loss and quantization error diverge, largely independent of training data scale. To investigate interventions on the training dynamics and identify specific configurations that can modulate quantization robustness favorably, we train our own models in controlled experiments up to 100B tokens. Our results challenge the assumption that increasing dataset scale inherently compromises quantization effectiveness, demonstrating instead that strategic training hyperparameter interventions can improve quantization quality at scale.

Multi-modal trajectory forecasting methods commonly evaluate using single-agent metrics (marginal metrics), such as minimum Average Displacement Error (ADE) and Final Displacement Error (FDE), which fail to capture joint performance of multiple interacting agents. Only focusing on marginal metrics can lead to unnatural predictions, such as colliding trajectories or diverging trajectories for people who are clearly walking together as a group. Consequently, methods optimized for marginal metrics lead to overly-optimistic estimations of performance, which is detrimental to progress in trajectory forecasting research. In response to the limitations of marginal metrics, we present the first comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art (SOTA) trajectory forecasting methods with respect to multi-agent metrics (joint metrics): JADE, JFDE, and collision rate. We demonstrate the importance of joint metrics as opposed to marginal metrics with quantitative evidence and qualitative examples drawn from the ETH / UCY and Stanford Drone datasets. We introduce a new loss function incorporating joint metrics that, when applied to a SOTA trajectory forecasting method, achieves a 7% improvement in JADE / JFDE on the ETH / UCY datasets with respect to the previous SOTA. Our results also indicate that optimizing for joint metrics naturally leads to an improvement in interaction modeling, as evidenced by a 16% decrease in mean collision rate on the ETH / UCY datasets with respect to the previous SOTA.

Test-time prompt tuning enhances zero-shot generalization of vision-language models but tends to ignore the relatedness among test samples during inference. Online test-time prompt tuning provides a simple way to leverage the information in previous test samples, albeit with the risk of prompt collapse due to error accumulation. To enhance test-time prompt tuning, we propose DynaPrompt, short for dynamic test-time prompt tuning, exploiting relevant data distribution information while reducing error accumulation. Built on an online prompt buffer, DynaPrompt adaptively selects and optimizes the relevant prompts for each test sample during tuning. Specifically, we introduce a dynamic prompt selection strategy based on two metrics: prediction entropy and probability difference. For unseen test data information, we develop dynamic prompt appending, which allows the buffer to append new prompts and delete the inactive ones. By doing so, the prompts are optimized to exploit beneficial information on specific test data, while alleviating error accumulation. Experiments on fourteen datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of dynamic test-time prompt tuning.

Amid the expanding use of pre-training data, the phenomenon of benchmark dataset leakage has become increasingly prominent, exacerbated by opaque training processes and the often undisclosed inclusion of supervised data in contemporary Large Language Models (LLMs). This issue skews benchmark effectiveness and fosters potentially unfair comparisons, impeding the field's healthy development. To address this, we introduce a detection pipeline utilizing Perplexity and N-gram accuracy, two simple and scalable metrics that gauge a model's prediction precision on benchmark, to identify potential data leakages. By analyzing 31 LLMs under the context of mathematical reasoning, we reveal substantial instances of training even test set misuse, resulting in potentially unfair comparisons. These findings prompt us to offer several recommendations regarding model documentation, benchmark setup, and future evaluations. Notably, we propose the "Benchmark Transparency Card" to encourage clear documentation of benchmark utilization, promoting transparency and healthy developments of LLMs. we have made our leaderboard, pipeline implementation, and model predictions publicly available, fostering future research.

Dual-encoder retrievers depend on the principle that relevant documents should score higher than irrelevant ones for a given query. Yet the dominant Noise Contrastive Estimation (NCE) objective, which underpins Contrastive Loss, optimizes a softened ranking surrogate that we rigorously prove is fundamentally oblivious to score separation quality and unrelated to AUC. This mismatch leads to poor calibration and suboptimal performance in downstream tasks like retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). To address this fundamental limitation, we introduce the MW loss, a new training objective that maximizes the Mann-Whitney U statistic, which is mathematically equivalent to the Area under the ROC Curve (AUC). MW loss encourages each positive-negative pair to be correctly ranked by minimizing binary cross entropy over score differences. We provide theoretical guarantees that MW loss directly upper-bounds the AoC, better aligning optimization with retrieval goals. We further promote ROC curves and AUC as natural threshold free diagnostics for evaluating retriever calibration and ranking quality. Empirically, retrievers trained with MW loss consistently outperform contrastive counterparts in AUC and standard retrieval metrics. Our experiments show that MW loss is an empirically superior alternative to Contrastive Loss, yielding better-calibrated and more discriminative retrievers for high-stakes applications like RAG.

One straightforward metric to evaluate a survival prediction model is based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) -- the average of the absolute difference between the time predicted by the model and the true event time, over all subjects. Unfortunately, this is challenging because, in practice, the test set includes (right) censored individuals, meaning we do not know when a censored individual actually experienced the event. In this paper, we explore various metrics to estimate MAE for survival datasets that include (many) censored individuals. Moreover, we introduce a novel and effective approach for generating realistic semi-synthetic survival datasets to facilitate the evaluation of metrics. Our findings, based on the analysis of the semi-synthetic datasets, reveal that our proposed metric (MAE using pseudo-observations) is able to rank models accurately based on their performance, and often closely matches the true MAE -- in particular, is better than several alternative methods.

Despite substantial advances in scaling test-time compute, an ongoing debate in the community is how it should be scaled up to enable continued and efficient improvements with scaling. There are largely two approaches: first, distilling successful search or thinking traces; and second, using verification (e.g., 0/1 outcome rewards, reward models, or verifiers) to guide reinforcement learning (RL) and search algorithms. In this paper, we prove that finetuning LLMs with verifier-based (VB) methods based on RL or search is far superior to verifier-free (VF) approaches based on distilling or cloning search traces, given a fixed amount of compute/data budget. Further, we show that as we scale test-time compute (measured as the output token length) and training data, suboptimality of VF methods scales poorly compared to VB when the base pre-trained LLM presents a heterogeneous distribution over correct solution traces (e.g., different lengths, styles, etc.) and admits a non-sharp distribution over rewards on traces sampled from it. We formalize this condition using anti-concentration [Erdos, 1945]. This implies a stronger result that VB methods scale better asymptotically, with the performance gap between VB and VF methods widening as test-time budget grows. We corroborate our theory empirically on both didactic and math reasoning problems with 3/8/32B-sized pre-trained LLMs, where we find verification is crucial for scaling test-time compute.

Recent generative models face significant risks of producing harmful content, which has underscored the importance of machine unlearning (MU) as a critical technique for eliminating the influence of undesired data. However, existing MU methods typically assign the same weight to all data to be forgotten, which makes it difficult to effectively forget certain data that is harder to unlearn than others. In this paper, we empirically demonstrate that the loss of data itself can implicitly reflect its varying difficulty. Building on this insight, we introduce Loss-based Reweighting Unlearning (LoReUn), a simple yet effective plug-and-play strategy that dynamically reweights data during the unlearning process with minimal additional computational overhead. Our approach significantly reduces the gap between existing MU methods and exact unlearning in both image classification and generation tasks, effectively enhancing the prevention of harmful content generation in text-to-image diffusion models.

In this paper, we address the problem of human trajectory forecasting, which aims to predict the inherently multi-modal future movements of humans based on their past trajectories and other contextual cues. We propose a novel motion prediction conditional flow matching model, termed MoFlow, to predict K-shot future trajectories for all agents in a given scene. We design a novel flow matching loss function that not only ensures at least one of the K sets of future trajectories is accurate but also encourages all K sets of future trajectories to be diverse and plausible. Furthermore, by leveraging the implicit maximum likelihood estimation (IMLE), we propose a novel distillation method for flow models that only requires samples from the teacher model. Extensive experiments on the real-world datasets, including SportVU NBA games, ETH-UCY, and SDD, demonstrate that both our teacher flow model and the IMLE-distilled student model achieve state-of-the-art performance. These models can generate diverse trajectories that are physically and socially plausible. Moreover, our one-step student model is 100 times faster than the teacher flow model during sampling. The code, model, and data are available at our project page: https://moflow-imle.github.io

Despite the effectiveness of recurrent neural network language models, their maximum likelihood estimation suffers from two limitations. It treats all sentences that do not match the ground truth as equally poor, ignoring the structure of the output space. Second, it suffers from "exposure bias": during training tokens are predicted given ground-truth sequences, while at test time prediction is conditioned on generated output sequences. To overcome these limitations we build upon the recent reward augmented maximum likelihood approach \ie sequence-level smoothing that encourages the model to predict sentences close to the ground truth according to a given performance metric. We extend this approach to token-level loss smoothing, and propose improvements to the sequence-level smoothing approach. Our experiments on two different tasks, image captioning and machine translation, show that token-level and sequence-level loss smoothing are complementary, and significantly improve results.

We propose Delta L Normalization, a simple yet effective loss aggregation method tailored to the characteristic of dynamic generation lengths in Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). Recently, RLVR has demonstrated strong potential in improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but a major challenge lies in the large variability of response lengths during training, which leads to high gradient variance and unstable optimization. Although previous methods such as GRPO, DAPO, and Dr. GRPO introduce different loss normalization terms to address this issue, they either produce biased estimates or still suffer from high gradient variance. By analyzing the effect of varying lengths on policy loss both theoretically and empirically, we reformulate the problem as finding a minimum-variance unbiased estimator. Our proposed Delta L Normalization not only provides an unbiased estimate of the true policy loss but also minimizes gradient variance in theory. Extensive experiments show that it consistently achieves superior results across different model sizes, maximum lengths, and tasks. Our code will be made public at https://github.com/zerolllin/Delta-L-Normalization.

We consider learning in an adversarial Markov Decision Process (MDP) where the loss functions can change arbitrarily over K episodes and the state space can be arbitrarily large. We assume that the Q-function of any policy is linear in some known features, that is, a linear function approximation exists. The best existing regret upper bound for this setting (Luo et al., 2021) is of order mathcal O(K^{2/3}) (omitting all other dependencies), given access to a simulator. This paper provides two algorithms that improve the regret to mathcal O(sqrt K) in the same setting. Our first algorithm makes use of a refined analysis of the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) algorithm with the log-barrier regularizer. This analysis allows the loss estimators to be arbitrarily negative and might be of independent interest. Our second algorithm develops a magnitude-reduced loss estimator, further removing the polynomial dependency on the number of actions in the first algorithm and leading to the optimal regret bound (up to logarithmic terms and dependency on the horizon). Moreover, we also extend the first algorithm to simulator-free linear MDPs, which achieves mathcal O(K^{8/9}) regret and greatly improves over the best existing bound mathcal O(K^{14/15}). This algorithm relies on a better alternative to the Matrix Geometric Resampling procedure by Neu & Olkhovskaya (2020), which could again be of independent interest.

The development of diffusion-based generative models over the past decade has largely proceeded independently of progress in representation learning. These diffusion models typically rely on regression-based objectives and generally lack explicit regularization. In this work, we propose Dispersive Loss, a simple plug-and-play regularizer that effectively improves diffusion-based generative models. Our loss function encourages internal representations to disperse in the hidden space, analogous to contrastive self-supervised learning, with the key distinction that it requires no positive sample pairs and therefore does not interfere with the sampling process used for regression. Compared to the recent method of representation alignment (REPA), our approach is self-contained and minimalist, requiring no pre-training, no additional parameters, and no external data. We evaluate Dispersive Loss on the ImageNet dataset across a range of models and report consistent improvements over widely used and strong baselines. We hope our work will help bridge the gap between generative modeling and representation learning.

Uniform random exploration in decision-making systems supports off-policy learning via supervision but incurs high regret, making it impractical for many applications. Conversely, non-uniform exploration offers better immediate performance but lacks support for off-policy learning. Recent research suggests that regression oracles can bridge this gap by combining non-uniform exploration with supervised learning. In this paper, we analyze these approaches within a real-world industrial context at Adyen, a large global payments processor characterized by batch logged delayed feedback, short-term memory, and dynamic action spaces under the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework. Our analysis reveals that while regression oracles significantly improve performance, they introduce challenges due to rigid algorithmic assumptions. Specifically, we observe that as a policy improves, subsequent generations may perform worse due to shifts in the reward distribution and increased class imbalance in the training data. This degradation occurs de spite improvements in other aspects of the training data, leading to decreased performance in successive policy iterations. We further explore the long-term impact of regression oracles, identifying a potential "oscillation effect." This effect arises when regression oracles influence probability estimates and the realizability of subsequent policy models, leading to fluctuations in performance across iterations. Our findings highlight the need for more adaptable algorithms that can leverage the benefits of regression oracles without introducing instability in policy performance over time.

This study investigates GPT-4's assessment of its performance in healthcare applications. A simple prompting technique was used to prompt the LLM with questions taken from the United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) questionnaire and it was tasked to evaluate its confidence score before posing the question and after asking the question. The questionnaire was categorized into two groups-questions with feedback (WF) and questions with no feedback(NF) post-question. The model was asked to provide absolute and relative confidence scores before and after each question. The experimental findings were analyzed using statistical tools to study the variability of confidence in WF and NF groups. Additionally, a sequential analysis was conducted to observe the performance variation for the WF and NF groups. Results indicate that feedback influences relative confidence but doesn't consistently increase or decrease it. Understanding the performance of LLM is paramount in exploring its utility in sensitive areas like healthcare. This study contributes to the ongoing discourse on the reliability of AI, particularly of LLMs like GPT-4, within healthcare, offering insights into how feedback mechanisms might be optimized to enhance AI-assisted medical education and decision support.

This paper presents the ZJUKLAB team's submission for SemEval-2025 Task 4: Unlearning Sensitive Content from Large Language Models. This task aims to selectively erase sensitive knowledge from large language models, avoiding both over-forgetting and under-forgetting issues. We propose an unlearning system that leverages Model Merging (specifically TIES-Merging), combining two specialized models into a more balanced unlearned model. Our system achieves competitive results, ranking second among 26 teams, with an online score of 0.944 for Task Aggregate and 0.487 for overall Aggregate. In this paper, we also conduct local experiments and perform a comprehensive analysis of the unlearning process, examining performance trajectories, loss dynamics, and weight perspectives, along with several supplementary experiments, to understand the effectiveness of our method. Furthermore, we analyze the shortcomings of our method and evaluation metrics, emphasizing that MIA scores and ROUGE-based metrics alone are insufficient to fully evaluate successful unlearning. Finally, we emphasize the need for more comprehensive evaluation methodologies and rethinking of unlearning objectives in future research. Code is available at https://github.com/zjunlp/unlearn/tree/main/semeval25.

Recent advances in reinforcement learning for foundation models, such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), have significantly improved the performance of foundation models on reasoning tasks. Notably, the advantage function serves as a central mechanism in GRPO for ranking the trajectory importance. However, existing explorations encounter both advantage reversion and advantage mirror problems, which hinder the reasonable advantage allocation across different query samples. In this work, we propose an easy but effective GRPO strategy, Mixed Advantage Policy Optimization (MAPO). We reveal that the trajectory appears with different certainty and propose the advantage percent deviation for samples with high-certainty trajectories. Furthermore, we dynamically reweight the advantage function for samples with varying trajectory certainty, thereby adaptively configuring the advantage function to account for sample-specific characteristics. Comparison with related state-of-the-art methods, along with ablation studies on different advantage variants, validates the effectiveness of our approach.

Deep learning has recently achieved initial success in program analysis tasks such as bug detection. Lacking real bugs, most existing works construct training and test data by injecting synthetic bugs into correct programs. Despite achieving high test accuracy (e.g., 90%), the resulting bug detectors are found to be surprisingly unusable in practice, i.e., <10% precision when used to scan real software repositories. In this work, we argue that this massive performance difference is caused by a distribution shift, i.e., a fundamental mismatch between the real bug distribution and the synthetic bug distribution used to train and evaluate the detectors. To address this key challenge, we propose to train a bug detector in two phases, first on a synthetic bug distribution to adapt the model to the bug detection domain, and then on a real bug distribution to drive the model towards the real distribution. During these two phases, we leverage a multi-task hierarchy, focal loss, and contrastive learning to further boost performance. We evaluate our approach extensively on three widely studied bug types, for which we construct new datasets carefully designed to capture the real bug distribution. The results demonstrate that our approach is practically effective and successfully mitigates the distribution shift: our learned detectors are highly performant on both our test set and the latest version of open source repositories. Our code, datasets, and models are publicly available at https://github.com/eth-sri/learning-real-bug-detector.

This paper describes the development of an on-board data-driven system that can monitor and localize the fault in a quadrotor unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and at the same time, evaluate the degree of damage of the fault under real scenarios. To achieve offline training data generation, a hybrid approach is proposed for the development of a virtual data-generative model using a combination of data-driven models as well as well-established dynamic models that describe the kinematics of the UAV. To effectively represent the drop in performance of a faulty propeller, a variation of the deep neural network, a LSTM network is proposed. With the RPM of the propeller as input and based on the fault condition of the propeller, the proposed propeller model estimates the resultant torque and thrust. Then, flight datasets of the UAV under various fault scenarios are generated via simulation using the developed data-generative model. Lastly, a fault classifier using a CNN model is proposed to identify as well as evaluate the degree of damage to the damaged propeller. The scope of this paper focuses on the identification of faulty propellers and classification of the fault level for quadrotor UAVs using RPM as well as flight data. Doing so allows for early minor fault detection to prevent serious faults from occurring if the fault is left unrepaired. To further validate the workability of this approach outside of simulation, a real-flight test is conducted indoors. The real flight data is collected and a simulation to real sim-real test is conducted. Due to the imperfections in the build of our experimental UAV, a slight calibration approach to our simulation model is further proposed and the experimental results obtained show that our trained model can identify the location of propeller fault as well as the degree/type of damage. Currently, the diagnosis accuracy on the testing set is over 80%.

Language modeling on large-scale datasets leads to impressive performance gains on various downstream language tasks. The validation pre-training loss (or perplexity in autoregressive language modeling) is often used as the evaluation metric when developing language models since the pre-training loss tends to be well-correlated with downstream performance (which is itself difficult to evaluate comprehensively). Contrary to this conventional wisdom, this paper shows that 1) pre-training loss cannot fully explain downstream performance and 2) flatness of the model is well-correlated with downstream performance where pre-training loss is not. On simplified datasets, we identify three ways to produce models with the same (statistically optimal) pre-training loss but different downstream performance: continue pre-training after convergence, increasing the model size, and changing the training algorithm. These experiments demonstrate the existence of implicit bias of pre-training algorithms/optimizers -- among models with the same minimal pre-training loss, they implicitly prefer more transferable ones. Toward understanding this implicit bias, we prove that SGD with standard mini-batch noise implicitly prefers flatter minima in language models, and empirically observe a strong correlation between flatness and downstream performance among models with the same minimal pre-training loss. We also prove in a synthetic language setting that among the models with the minimal pre-training loss, the flattest model transfers to downstream tasks.

Recent advances in model distillation demonstrate that data from advanced reasoning models (e.g., DeepSeek-R1, OpenAI's o1) can effectively transfer complex reasoning abilities to smaller, efficient student models. However, standard practices employ rejection sampling, discarding incorrect reasoning examples -- valuable, yet often underutilized data. This paper addresses the critical question: How can both positive and negative distilled reasoning traces be effectively leveraged to maximize LLM reasoning performance in an offline setting? To this end, We propose Reinforcement Distillation (REDI), a two-stage framework. Stage 1 learns from positive traces via Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT). Stage 2 further refines the model using both positive and negative traces through our proposed REDI objective. This novel objective is a simple, reference-free loss function that outperforms established methods like DPO and SimPO in this distillation context. Our empirical evaluations demonstrate REDI's superiority over baseline Rejection Sampling SFT or SFT combined with DPO/SimPO on mathematical reasoning tasks. Notably, the Qwen-REDI-1.5B model, post-trained on just 131k positive and negative examples from the open Open-R1 dataset, achieves an 83.1% score on MATH-500 (pass@1). Its performance matches or surpasses that of DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B (a model post-trained on 800k proprietary data) across various mathematical reasoning benchmarks, establishing a new state-of-the-art for 1.5B models post-trained offline with openly available data.

Plasticity, the ability of a neural network to quickly change its predictions in response to new information, is essential for the adaptability and robustness of deep reinforcement learning systems. Deep neural networks are known to lose plasticity over the course of training even in relatively simple learning problems, but the mechanisms driving this phenomenon are still poorly understood. This paper conducts a systematic empirical analysis into plasticity loss, with the goal of understanding the phenomenon mechanistically in order to guide the future development of targeted solutions. We find that loss of plasticity is deeply connected to changes in the curvature of the loss landscape, but that it typically occurs in the absence of saturated units or divergent gradient norms. Based on this insight, we identify a number of parameterization and optimization design choices which enable networks to better preserve plasticity over the course of training. We validate the utility of these findings in larger-scale learning problems by applying the best-performing intervention, layer normalization, to a deep RL agent trained on the Arcade Learning Environment.

The success of automated medical image analysis depends on large-scale and expert-annotated training sets. Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) has been raised as a promising approach to alleviate the burden of labeled data collection. However, they generally operate under the closed-set adaptation setting assuming an identical label set between the source and target domains, which is over-restrictive in clinical practice where new classes commonly exist across datasets due to taxonomic inconsistency. While several methods have been presented to tackle both domain shifts and incoherent label sets, none of them take into account the common characteristics of the two issues and consider the learning dynamics along network training. In this work, we propose optimization trajectory distillation, a unified approach to address the two technical challenges from a new perspective. It exploits the low-rank nature of gradient space and devises a dual-stream distillation algorithm to regularize the learning dynamics of insufficiently annotated domain and classes with the external guidance obtained from reliable sources. Our approach resolves the issue of inadequate navigation along network optimization, which is the major obstacle in the taxonomy adaptive cross-domain adaptation scenario. We evaluate the proposed method extensively on several tasks towards various endpoints with clinical and open-world significance. The results demonstrate its effectiveness and improvements over previous methods.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Advances in medical imaging technologies have enabled the collection of longitudinal images, which involve repeated scanning of the same patients over time, to monitor disease progression. However, predictive modeling of such data remains challenging due to high dimensionality, irregular sampling, and data sparsity. To address these issues, we propose ImageFlowNet, a novel model designed to forecast disease trajectories from initial images while preserving spatial details. ImageFlowNet first learns multiscale joint representation spaces across patients and time points, then optimizes deterministic or stochastic flow fields within these spaces using a position-parameterized neural ODE/SDE framework. The model leverages a UNet architecture to create robust multiscale representations and mitigates data scarcity by combining knowledge from all patients. We provide theoretical insights that support our formulation of ODEs, and motivate our regularizations involving high-level visual features, latent space organization, and trajectory smoothness. We validate ImageFlowNet on three longitudinal medical image datasets depicting progression in geographic atrophy, multiple sclerosis, and glioblastoma, demonstrating its ability to effectively forecast disease progression and outperform existing methods. Our contributions include the development of ImageFlowNet, its theoretical underpinnings, and empirical validation on real-world datasets. The official implementation is available at https://github.com/KrishnaswamyLab/ImageFlowNet.

The ability to learn different tasks sequentially is essential to the development of artificial intelligence. In general, neural networks lack this capability, the major obstacle being catastrophic forgetting. It occurs when the incrementally available information from non-stationary data distributions is continually acquired, disrupting what the model has already learned. Our approach remembers old tasks by projecting the representations of new tasks close to that of old tasks while keeping the decision boundaries unchanged. We employ the center loss as a regularization penalty that enforces new tasks' features to have the same class centers as old tasks and makes the features highly discriminative. This, in turn, leads to the least forgetting of already learned information. This method is easy to implement, requires minimal computational and memory overhead, and allows the neural network to maintain high performance across many sequentially encountered tasks. We also demonstrate that using the center loss in conjunction with the memory replay outperforms other replay-based strategies. Along with standard MNIST variants for continual learning, we apply our method to continual domain adaptation scenarios with the Digits and PACS datasets. We demonstrate that our approach is scalable, effective, and gives competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art continual learning methods.

Over the last years, several works have explored the application of deep learning algorithms to determine the large-scale signal fading (also referred to as ``path loss'') between transmitter and receiver pairs in urban communication networks. The central idea is to replace costly measurement campaigns, inaccurate statistical models or computationally expensive ray-tracing simulations by machine learning models which, once trained, produce accurate predictions almost instantly. Although the topic has attracted attention from many researchers, there are few open benchmark datasets and codebases that would allow everyone to test and compare the developed methods and algorithms. We take a step towards filling this gap by releasing a publicly available dataset of simulated path loss radio maps together with realistic city maps from real-world locations and aerial images from open datasources. Initial experiments regarding model architectures, input feature design and estimation of radio maps from aerial images are presented and the code is made available.

Contrastive learning has shown to be effective to learn representations from time series in a self-supervised way. However, contrasting similar time series instances or values from adjacent timestamps within a time series leads to ignore their inherent correlations, which results in deteriorating the quality of learned representations. To address this issue, we propose SoftCLT, a simple yet effective soft contrastive learning strategy for time series. This is achieved by introducing instance-wise and temporal contrastive loss with soft assignments ranging from zero to one. Specifically, we define soft assignments for 1) instance-wise contrastive loss by the distance between time series on the data space, and 2) temporal contrastive loss by the difference of timestamps. SoftCLT is a plug-and-play method for time series contrastive learning that improves the quality of learned representations without bells and whistles. In experiments, we demonstrate that SoftCLT consistently improves the performance in various downstream tasks including classification, semi-supervised learning, transfer learning, and anomaly detection, showing state-of-the-art performance. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/seunghan96/softclt.

Differentiable programming techniques are widely used in the community and are responsible for the machine learning renaissance of the past several decades. While these methods are powerful, they have limits. In this short report, we discuss a common chaos based failure mode which appears in a variety of differentiable circumstances, ranging from recurrent neural networks and numerical physics simulation to training learned optimizers. We trace this failure to the spectrum of the Jacobian of the system under study, and provide criteria for when a practitioner might expect this failure to spoil their differentiation based optimization algorithms.

Transfer learning is widely used for training deep neural networks (DNN) for building a powerful representation. Even after the pre-trained model is adapted for the target task, the representation performance of the feature extractor is retained to some extent. As the performance of the pre-trained model can be considered the private property of the owner, it is natural to seek the exclusive right of the generalized performance of the pre-trained weight. To address this issue, we suggest a new paradigm of transfer learning called disposable transfer learning (DTL), which disposes of only the source task without degrading the performance of the target task. To achieve knowledge disposal, we propose a novel loss named Gradient Collision loss (GC loss). GC loss selectively unlearns the source knowledge by leading the gradient vectors of mini-batches in different directions. Whether the model successfully unlearns the source task is measured by piggyback learning accuracy (PL accuracy). PL accuracy estimates the vulnerability of knowledge leakage by retraining the scrubbed model on a subset of source data or new downstream data. We demonstrate that GC loss is an effective approach to the DTL problem by showing that the model trained with GC loss retains the performance on the target task with a significantly reduced PL accuracy.

Training large models is both resource-intensive and time-consuming, making it crucial to understand the quantitative relationship between model performance and hyperparameters. In this paper, we present an empirical law that describes how the pretraining loss of large language models evolves under different learning rate schedules, such as constant, cosine, and step decay schedules. Our proposed law takes a multi-power form, combining a power law based on the sum of learning rates and additional power laws to account for a loss reduction effect induced by learning rate decay. We extensively validate this law on various model sizes and architectures, and demonstrate that after fitting on a few learning rate schedules, the law accurately predicts the loss curves for unseen schedules of different shapes and horizons. Moreover, by minimizing the predicted final pretraining loss across learning rate schedules, we are able to find a schedule that outperforms the widely used cosine learning rate schedule. Interestingly, this automatically discovered schedule bears some resemblance to the recently proposed Warmup-Stable-Decay (WSD) schedule (Hu et al, 2024) but achieves a slightly lower final loss. We believe these results could offer valuable insights for understanding the dynamics of pretraining and designing learning rate schedules to improve efficiency.

We show that reinforcement learning with verifiable reward using one training example (1-shot RLVR) is effective in incentivizing the math reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Applying RLVR to the base model Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B, we identify a single example that elevates model performance on MATH500 from 36.0% to 73.6%, and improves the average performance across six common mathematical reasoning benchmarks from 17.6% to 35.7%. This result matches the performance obtained using the 1.2k DeepScaleR subset (MATH500: 73.6%, average: 35.9%), which includes the aforementioned example. Similar substantial improvements are observed across various models (Qwen2.5-Math-7B, Llama3.2-3B-Instruct, DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B), RL algorithms (GRPO and PPO), and different math examples (many of which yield approximately 30% or greater improvement on MATH500 when employed as a single training example). In addition, we identify some interesting phenomena during 1-shot RLVR, including cross-domain generalization, increased frequency of self-reflection, and sustained test performance improvement even after the training accuracy has saturated, a phenomenon we term post-saturation generalization. Moreover, we verify that the effectiveness of 1-shot RLVR primarily arises from the policy gradient loss, distinguishing it from the "grokking" phenomenon. We also show the critical role of promoting exploration (e.g., by adding entropy loss with an appropriate coefficient) in 1-shot RLVR training. As a bonus, we observe that applying entropy loss alone, without any outcome reward, significantly enhances Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B's performance on MATH500 by 27.4%. These findings can inspire future work on RLVR data efficiency and encourage a re-examination of both recent progress and the underlying mechanisms in RLVR. Our code, model, and data are open source at https://github.com/ypwang61/One-Shot-RLVR

With the scale capability of increasing training data, model size, and computational cost, video generation has achieved impressive results in digital creation, enabling users to express creativity across various domains. Recently, researchers in Large Language Models (LLMs) have expanded the scaling to test-time, which can significantly improve LLM performance by using more inference-time computation. Instead of scaling up video foundation models through expensive training costs, we explore the power of Test-Time Scaling (TTS) in video generation, aiming to answer the question: if a video generation model is allowed to use non-trivial amount of inference-time compute, how much can it improve generation quality given a challenging text prompt. In this work, we reinterpret the test-time scaling of video generation as a searching problem to sample better trajectories from Gaussian noise space to the target video distribution. Specifically, we build the search space with test-time verifiers to provide feedback and heuristic algorithms to guide searching process. Given a text prompt, we first explore an intuitive linear search strategy by increasing noise candidates at inference time. As full-step denoising all frames simultaneously requires heavy test-time computation costs, we further design a more efficient TTS method for video generation called Tree-of-Frames (ToF) that adaptively expands and prunes video branches in an autoregressive manner. Extensive experiments on text-conditioned video generation benchmarks demonstrate that increasing test-time compute consistently leads to significant improvements in the quality of videos. Project page: https://liuff19.github.io/Video-T1

Satellite connectivity is gaining increased attention as the demand for seamless internet access, especially in transportation and remote areas, continues to grow. For fast-moving objects such as aircraft, vehicles, or trains, satellite connectivity is critical due to their mobility and frequent presence in areas without terrestrial coverage. Maintaining reliable connectivity in these cases requires frequent switching between satellite beams, constellations, or orbits. To enhance user experience and address challenges like long switching times, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms can analyze historical connectivity data and predict network quality at specific locations. This allows for proactive measures, such as network switching before connectivity issues arise. In this paper, we analyze a real dataset of communication between a Geostationary Orbit (GEO) satellite and aircraft over multiple flights, using ML to predict signal quality. Our prediction model achieved an F1 score of 0.97 on the test data, demonstrating the accuracy of machine learning in predicting signal quality during flight. By enabling seamless broadband service, including roaming between different satellite constellations and providers, our model addresses the need for real-time predictions of signal quality. This approach can further be adapted to automate satellite and beam-switching mechanisms to improve overall communication efficiency. The model can also be retrained and applied to any moving object with satellite connectivity, using customized datasets, including connected vehicles and trains.

In this paper, we investigate the instability in the standard dense retrieval training, which iterates between model training and hard negative selection using the being-trained model. We show the catastrophic forgetting phenomena behind the training instability, where models learn and forget different negative groups during training iterations. We then propose ANCE-Tele, which accumulates momentum negatives from past iterations and approximates future iterations using lookahead negatives, as "teleportations" along the time axis to smooth the learning process. On web search and OpenQA, ANCE-Tele outperforms previous state-of-the-art systems of similar size, eliminates the dependency on sparse retrieval negatives, and is competitive among systems using significantly more (50x) parameters. Our analysis demonstrates that teleportation negatives reduce catastrophic forgetting and improve convergence speed for dense retrieval training. Our code is available at https://github.com/OpenMatch/ANCE-Tele.

Databases of electronic health records (EHRs) are increasingly used to inform clinical decisions. Machine learning methods can find patterns in EHRs that are predictive of future adverse outcomes. However, statistical models may be built upon patterns of health-seeking behavior that vary across patient subpopulations, leading to poor predictive performance when training on one patient population and predicting on another. This note proposes two tests to better measure and understand model generalization. We use these tests to compare models derived from two data sources: (i) historical medical records, and (ii) electrocardiogram (EKG) waveforms. In a predictive task, we show that EKG-based models can be more stable than EHR-based models across different patient populations.

We present an empirical evaluation of various outputs generated by nine of the most widely-available large language models (LLMs). Our analysis is done with off-the-shelf, readily-available tools. We find a correlation between percentage of memorized text, percentage of unique text, and overall output quality, when measured with respect to output pathologies such as counterfactual and logically-flawed statements, and general failures like not staying on topic. Overall, 80.0% of the outputs evaluated contained memorized data, but outputs containing the most memorized content were also more likely to be considered of high quality. We discuss and evaluate mitigation strategies, showing that, in the models evaluated, the rate of memorized text being output is reduced. We conclude with a discussion on potential implications around what it means to learn, to memorize, and to evaluate quality text.

Scaling laws are useful guides for developing language models, but there are still gaps between current scaling studies and how language models are ultimately trained and evaluated. For instance, scaling is usually studied in the compute-optimal training regime (i.e., "Chinchilla optimal" regime); however, in practice, models are often over-trained to reduce inference costs. Moreover, scaling laws mostly predict loss on next-token prediction, but ultimately models are compared based on downstream task performance. In this paper, we address both shortcomings. To do so, we create a testbed of 104 models with 0.011B to 6.9B parameters trained with various numbers of tokens on three data distributions. First, we investigate scaling in the over-trained regime. We fit scaling laws that extrapolate in both the number of model parameters and the ratio of training tokens to parameters. This enables us to predict the validation loss of a 1.4B parameter, 900B token run (i.e., 32times over-trained) and a 6.9B parameter, 138B token runx2014each from experiments that take 300times less compute. Second, we relate the perplexity of a language model to its downstream task performance via a power law. We use this law to predict top-1 error averaged over downstream tasks for the two aforementioned models using experiments that take 20times less compute. Our experiments are available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/scaling.

How can we rely on an end-to-end autonomous vehicle's complex decision-making system during deployment? One common solution is to have a ``fallback layer'' that checks the planned trajectory for rule violations and replaces it with a pre-defined safe action if necessary. Another approach involves adjusting the planner's decisions to minimize a pre-defined ``cost function'' using additional system predictions such as road layouts and detected obstacles. However, these pre-programmed rules or cost functions cannot learn and improve with new training data, often resulting in overly conservative behaviors. In this work, we propose Centaur (Cluster Entropy for Test-time trAining using Uncertainty) which updates a planner's behavior via test-time training, without relying on hand-engineered rules or cost functions. Instead, we measure and minimize the uncertainty in the planner's decisions. For this, we develop a novel uncertainty measure, called Cluster Entropy, which is simple, interpretable, and compatible with state-of-the-art planning algorithms. Using data collected at prior test-time time-steps, we perform an update to the model's parameters using a gradient that minimizes the Cluster Entropy. With only this sole gradient update prior to inference, Centaur exhibits significant improvements, ranking first on the navtest leaderboard with notable gains in safety-critical metrics such as time to collision. To provide detailed insights on a per-scenario basis, we also introduce navsafe, a challenging new benchmark, which highlights previously undiscovered failure modes of driving models.

Knowledge tracing (KT) has recently been an active research area of computational pedagogy. The task is to model students' mastery level of knowledge concepts based on their responses to the questions in the past, as well as predict the probabilities that they correctly answer subsequent questions in the future. KT tasks were historically solved using statistical modeling methods such as Bayesian inference and factor analysis, but recent advances in deep learning have led to the successive proposals that leverage deep neural networks, including long short-term memory networks, memory-augmented networks and self-attention networks. While those deep models demonstrate superior performance over the traditional approaches, they all neglect the explicit modeling of the learning curve theory, which generally says that more practice on the same knowledge concept enhances one's mastery level of the concept. Based on this theory, we propose a Convolution-Augmented Knowledge Tracing (CAKT) model in this paper. The model employs three-dimensional convolutional neural networks to explicitly learn a student's recent experience on applying the same knowledge concept with that in the next question, and fuses the learnt feature with the feature representing her overall latent knowledge state obtained using a classic LSTM network. The fused feature is then fed into a second LSTM network to predict the student's response to the next question. Experimental results show that CAKT achieves the new state-of-the-art performance in predicting students' responses compared with existing models. We also conduct extensive sensitivity analysis and ablation study to show the stability of the results and justify the particular architecture of CAKT, respectively.

Training data quality is one of the most important drivers of final model quality. In this work, we introduce a method for evaluating data integrity based on the assumption that low-quality input prompts result in high variance and low quality responses. This is achieved by measuring the rejected response quality and the reward gap between the chosen and rejected preference pair. Our method, Rejecting Instruction Preferences (RIP) can be used to filter prompts from existing training sets, or to make high quality synthetic datasets, yielding large performance gains across various benchmarks compared to unfiltered data. Using Llama 3.1-8B-Instruct, RIP improves AlpacaEval2 LC Win Rate by 9.4%, Arena-Hard by 8.7%, and WildBench by 9.9%. Using Llama 3.3-70B-Instruct, RIP improves Arena-Hard from 67.5 to 82.9, which is from 18th place to 6th overall in the leaderboard.

Offline optimization has recently emerged as an increasingly popular approach to mitigate the prohibitively expensive cost of online experimentation. The key idea is to learn a surrogate of the black-box function that underlines the target experiment using a static (offline) dataset of its previous input-output queries. Such an approach is, however, fraught with an out-of-distribution issue where the learned surrogate becomes inaccurate outside the offline data regimes. To mitigate this, existing offline optimizers have proposed numerous conditioning techniques to prevent the learned surrogate from being too erratic. Nonetheless, such conditioning strategies are often specific to particular surrogate or search models, which might not generalize to a different model choice. This motivates us to develop a model-agnostic approach instead, which incorporates a notion of model sharpness into the training loss of the surrogate as a regularizer. Our approach is supported by a new theoretical analysis demonstrating that reducing surrogate sharpness on the offline dataset provably reduces its generalized sharpness on unseen data. Our analysis extends existing theories from bounding generalized prediction loss (on unseen data) with loss sharpness to bounding the worst-case generalized surrogate sharpness with its empirical estimate on training data, providing a new perspective on sharpness regularization. Our extensive experimentation on a diverse range of optimization tasks also shows that reducing surrogate sharpness often leads to significant improvement, marking (up to) a noticeable 9.6% performance boost. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/cuong-dm/IGNITE

Recent test-time adaptation methods heavily rely on nuanced adjustments of batch normalization (BN) parameters. However, one critical assumption often goes overlooked: that of independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) test batches with respect to unknown labels. This oversight leads to skewed BN statistics and undermines the reliability of the model under non-i.i.d. scenarios. To tackle this challenge, this paper presents a novel method termed 'Un-Mixing Test-Time Normalization Statistics' (UnMix-TNS). Our method re-calibrates the statistics for each instance within a test batch by mixing it with multiple distinct statistics components, thus inherently simulating the i.i.d. scenario. The core of this method hinges on a distinctive online unmixing procedure that continuously updates these statistics components by incorporating the most similar instances from new test batches. Remarkably generic in its design, UnMix-TNS seamlessly integrates with a wide range of leading test-time adaptation methods and pre-trained architectures equipped with BN layers. Empirical evaluations corroborate the robustness of UnMix-TNS under varied scenarios-ranging from single to continual and mixed domain shifts, particularly excelling with temporally correlated test data and corrupted non-i.i.d. real-world streams. This adaptability is maintained even with very small batch sizes or single instances. Our results highlight UnMix-TNS's capacity to markedly enhance stability and performance across various benchmarks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/devavratTomar/unmixtns.

While recent developments in text-to-image generative models have led to a suite of high-performing methods capable of producing creative imagery from free-form text, there are several limitations. By analyzing the cross-attention representations of these models, we notice two key issues. First, for text prompts that contain multiple concepts, there is a significant amount of pixel-space overlap (i.e., same spatial regions) among pairs of different concepts. This eventually leads to the model being unable to distinguish between the two concepts and one of them being ignored in the final generation. Next, while these models attempt to capture all such concepts during the beginning of denoising (e.g., first few steps) as evidenced by cross-attention maps, this knowledge is not retained by the end of denoising (e.g., last few steps). Such loss of knowledge eventually leads to inaccurate generation outputs. To address these issues, our key innovations include two test-time attention-based loss functions that substantially improve the performance of pretrained baseline text-to-image diffusion models. First, our attention segregation loss reduces the cross-attention overlap between attention maps of different concepts in the text prompt, thereby reducing the confusion/conflict among various concepts and the eventual capture of all concepts in the generated output. Next, our attention retention loss explicitly forces text-to-image diffusion models to retain cross-attention information for all concepts across all denoising time steps, thereby leading to reduced information loss and the preservation of all concepts in the generated output.

We study the data selection problem, whose aim is to select a small representative subset of data that can be used to efficiently train a machine learning model. We present a new data selection approach based on k-means clustering and sensitivity sampling. Assuming access to an embedding representation of the data with respect to which the model loss is H\"older continuous, our approach provably allows selecting a set of ``typical'' k + 1/varepsilon^2 elements whose average loss corresponds to the average loss of the whole dataset, up to a multiplicative (1pmvarepsilon) factor and an additive varepsilon lambda Phi_k, where Phi_k represents the k-means cost for the input embeddings and lambda is the H\"older constant. We furthermore demonstrate the performance and scalability of our approach on fine-tuning foundation models and show that it outperforms state-of-the-art methods. We also show how it can be applied on linear regression, leading to a new sampling strategy that surprisingly matches the performances of leverage score sampling, while being conceptually simpler and more scalable.

Deep learning models have demonstrated exceptional performance across a wide range of computer vision tasks. However, their performance often degrades significantly when faced with distribution shifts, such as domain or dataset changes. Test-Time Training (TTT) has emerged as an effective method to enhance model robustness by incorporating an auxiliary unsupervised task during training and leveraging it for model updates at test time. In this work, we introduce CTA (Cross-Task Alignment), a novel approach for improving TTT. Unlike existing TTT methods, CTA does not require a specialized model architecture and instead takes inspiration from the success of multi-modal contrastive learning to align a supervised encoder with a self-supervised one. This process enforces alignment between the learned representations of both models, thereby mitigating the risk of gradient interference, preserving the intrinsic robustness of self-supervised learning and enabling more semantically meaningful updates at test-time. Experimental results demonstrate substantial improvements in robustness and generalization over the state-of-the-art on several benchmark datasets.

Language models (LMs) have proven to be powerful tools for psycholinguistic research, but most prior work has focused on purely behavioural measures (e.g., surprisal comparisons). At the same time, research in model interpretability has begun to illuminate the abstract causal mechanisms shaping LM behavior. To help bring these strands of research closer together, we introduce CausalGym. We adapt and expand the SyntaxGym suite of tasks to benchmark the ability of interpretability methods to causally affect model behaviour. To illustrate how CausalGym can be used, we study the pythia models (14M--6.9B) and assess the causal efficacy of a wide range of interpretability methods, including linear probing and distributed alignment search (DAS). We find that DAS outperforms the other methods, and so we use it to study the learning trajectory of two difficult linguistic phenomena in pythia-1b: negative polarity item licensing and filler--gap dependencies. Our analysis shows that the mechanism implementing both of these tasks is learned in discrete stages, not gradually.

Accurately measuring the cycle lifetime of commercial lithium-ion batteries is crucial for performance and technology development. We introduce a novel hybrid approach combining a physics-based equation with a self-attention model to predict the cycle lifetimes of commercial lithium iron phosphate graphite cells via early-cycle data. After fitting capacity loss curves to this physics-based equation, we then use a self-attention layer to reconstruct entire battery capacity loss curves. Our model exhibits comparable performances to existing models while predicting more information: the entire capacity loss curve instead of cycle life. This provides more robustness and interpretability: our model does not need to be retrained for a different notion of end-of-life and is backed by physical intuition.

In this paper, we propose Test-Time Training, a general approach for improving the performance of predictive models when training and test data come from different distributions. We turn a single unlabeled test sample into a self-supervised learning problem, on which we update the model parameters before making a prediction. This also extends naturally to data in an online stream. Our simple approach leads to improvements on diverse image classification benchmarks aimed at evaluating robustness to distribution shifts.

We introduce Score identity Distillation (SiD), an innovative data-free method that distills the generative capabilities of pretrained diffusion models into a single-step generator. SiD not only facilitates an exponentially fast reduction in Fr\'echet inception distance (FID) during distillation but also approaches or even exceeds the FID performance of the original teacher diffusion models. By reformulating forward diffusion processes as semi-implicit distributions, we leverage three score-related identities to create an innovative loss mechanism. This mechanism achieves rapid FID reduction by training the generator using its own synthesized images, eliminating the need for real data or reverse-diffusion-based generation, all accomplished within significantly shortened generation time. Upon evaluation across four benchmark datasets, the SiD algorithm demonstrates high iteration efficiency during distillation and surpasses competing distillation approaches, whether they are one-step or few-step, data-free, or dependent on training data, in terms of generation quality. This achievement not only redefines the benchmarks for efficiency and effectiveness in diffusion distillation but also in the broader field of diffusion-based generation. The PyTorch implementation is available at https://github.com/mingyuanzhou/SiD