// Réseau Bayésien Fonctionnel Complet pour l'évaluation d'autonomie // 12 variables avec tables de probabilités complètes network Autonomy_Functional_Complete { } // ============================================ // VARIABLES NON-ACTIONNABLES (3 variables) // ============================================ variable Age { type discrete[4] {age_60_69, age_70_79, age_80_89, age_90_plus}; } variable Sex { type discrete[2] {male, female}; } variable Education_Level { type discrete[3] {primary_or_below, secondary, higher_education}; } // ============================================ // VARIABLES ACTIONNABLES (5 variables) // ============================================ variable Physical_Activity { type discrete[4] {sedentary, low, moderate, high}; } variable BMI_Category { type discrete[4] {underweight_normal, overweight, obese_mild, obese_severe}; } variable Smoking_Status { type discrete[3] {never, former, current}; } variable Social_Support { type discrete[3] {poor, moderate, good}; } variable Social_Engagement { type discrete[3] {low, moderate, high}; } // ============================================ // VARIABLES INTERMÉDIAIRES (3 variables) // ============================================ variable Physical_Frailty { type discrete[3] {robust, pre_frail, frail}; } variable Cognitive_Function { type discrete[3] {normal, mild_impairment, moderate_severe_impairment}; } variable Depression { type discrete[3] {absent_mild, moderate, severe}; } // ============================================ // VARIABLE DE RÉSULTAT (1 variable) // ============================================ variable Global_Autonomy { type discrete[4] {autonomous, partially_dependent, dependent, heavily_dependent}; } // ============================================ // TABLES DE PROBABILITÉS COMPLÈTES // ============================================ // Variables de base (marginales) probability (Age) { table 0.30, 0.35, 0.25, 0.10; } probability (Sex) { table 0.48, 0.52; } probability (Education_Level) { table 0.35, 0.40, 0.25; } // Variables actionnables conditionnelles probability (Physical_Activity | Age, Education_Level) { (age_60_69, primary_or_below) 0.25, 0.30, 0.30, 0.15; (age_60_69, secondary) 0.20, 0.25, 0.35, 0.20; (age_60_69, higher_education) 0.15, 0.20, 0.40, 0.25; (age_70_79, primary_or_below) 0.35, 0.35, 0.20, 0.10; (age_70_79, secondary) 0.30, 0.30, 0.25, 0.15; (age_70_79, higher_education) 0.25, 0.25, 0.30, 0.20; (age_80_89, primary_or_below) 0.50, 0.30, 0.15, 0.05; (age_80_89, secondary) 0.45, 0.30, 0.20, 0.05; (age_80_89, higher_education) 0.40, 0.30, 0.25, 0.05; (age_90_plus, primary_or_below) 0.65, 0.25, 0.08, 0.02; (age_90_plus, secondary) 0.60, 0.25, 0.12, 0.03; (age_90_plus, higher_education) 0.55, 0.25, 0.15, 0.05; } probability (BMI_Category | Age, Sex) { (age_60_69, male) 0.40, 0.35, 0.20, 0.05; (age_60_69, female) 0.35, 0.40, 0.20, 0.05; (age_70_79, male) 0.45, 0.35, 0.15, 0.05; (age_70_79, female) 0.40, 0.40, 0.15, 0.05; (age_80_89, male) 0.50, 0.35, 0.12, 0.03; (age_80_89, female) 0.45, 0.40, 0.12, 0.03; (age_90_plus, male) 0.60, 0.30, 0.08, 0.02; (age_90_plus, female) 0.55, 0.35, 0.08, 0.02; } probability (Smoking_Status | Age, Sex) { (age_60_69, male) 0.45, 0.35, 0.20; (age_60_69, female) 0.70, 0.25, 0.05; (age_70_79, male) 0.55, 0.35, 0.10; (age_70_79, female) 0.80, 0.18, 0.02; (age_80_89, male) 0.70, 0.28, 0.02; (age_80_89, female) 0.88, 0.11, 0.01; (age_90_plus, male) 0.85, 0.14, 0.01; (age_90_plus, female) 0.95, 0.04, 0.01; } probability (Social_Support) { table 0.25, 0.50, 0.25; } probability (Social_Engagement | Age, Social_Support, Education_Level) { (age_60_69, poor, primary_or_below) 0.60, 0.30, 0.10; (age_60_69, poor, secondary) 0.50, 0.35, 0.15; (age_60_69, poor, higher_education) 0.40, 0.40, 0.20; (age_60_69, moderate, primary_or_below) 0.30, 0.45, 0.25; (age_60_69, moderate, secondary) 0.25, 0.45, 0.30; (age_60_69, moderate, higher_education) 0.20, 0.45, 0.35; (age_60_69, good, primary_or_below) 0.20, 0.45, 0.35; (age_60_69, good, secondary) 0.15, 0.45, 0.40; (age_60_69, good, higher_education) 0.10, 0.40, 0.50; (age_70_79, poor, primary_or_below) 0.70, 0.25, 0.05; (age_70_79, poor, secondary) 0.60, 0.30, 0.10; (age_70_79, poor, higher_education) 0.50, 0.35, 0.15; (age_70_79, moderate, primary_or_below) 0.40, 0.40, 0.20; (age_70_79, moderate, secondary) 0.35, 0.40, 0.25; (age_70_79, moderate, higher_education) 0.30, 0.40, 0.30; (age_70_79, good, primary_or_below) 0.30, 0.45, 0.25; (age_70_79, good, secondary) 0.25, 0.45, 0.30; (age_70_79, good, higher_education) 0.20, 0.40, 0.40; (age_80_89, poor, primary_or_below) 0.80, 0.17, 0.03; (age_80_89, poor, secondary) 0.75, 0.20, 0.05; (age_80_89, poor, higher_education) 0.65, 0.25, 0.10; (age_80_89, moderate, primary_or_below) 0.55, 0.35, 0.10; (age_80_89, moderate, secondary) 0.50, 0.35, 0.15; (age_80_89, moderate, higher_education) 0.40, 0.40, 0.20; (age_80_89, good, primary_or_below) 0.40, 0.45, 0.15; (age_80_89, good, secondary) 0.35, 0.45, 0.20; (age_80_89, good, higher_education) 0.25, 0.45, 0.30; (age_90_plus, poor, primary_or_below) 0.90, 0.08, 0.02; (age_90_plus, poor, secondary) 0.85, 0.12, 0.03; (age_90_plus, poor, higher_education) 0.75, 0.20, 0.05; (age_90_plus, moderate, primary_or_below) 0.70, 0.25, 0.05; (age_90_plus, moderate, secondary) 0.65, 0.28, 0.07; (age_90_plus, moderate, higher_education) 0.55, 0.35, 0.10; (age_90_plus, good, primary_or_below) 0.55, 0.35, 0.10; (age_90_plus, good, secondary) 0.50, 0.40, 0.10; (age_90_plus, good, higher_education) 0.40, 0.45, 0.15; } // Variables intermédiaires probability (Physical_Frailty | Age, Physical_Activity, BMI_Category) { (age_60_69, sedentary, underweight_normal) 0.55, 0.35, 0.10; (age_60_69, sedentary, overweight) 0.45, 0.40, 0.15; (age_60_69, sedentary, obese_mild) 0.35, 0.45, 0.20; (age_60_69, sedentary, obese_severe) 0.25, 0.45, 0.30; (age_60_69, low, underweight_normal) 0.70, 0.25, 0.05; (age_60_69, low, overweight) 0.60, 0.30, 0.10; (age_60_69, low, obese_mild) 0.50, 0.35, 0.15; (age_60_69, low, obese_severe) 0.40, 0.40, 0.20; (age_60_69, moderate, underweight_normal) 0.80, 0.17, 0.03; (age_60_69, moderate, overweight) 0.70, 0.25, 0.05; (age_60_69, moderate, obese_mild) 0.60, 0.30, 0.10; (age_60_69, moderate, obese_severe) 0.50, 0.35, 0.15; (age_60_69, high, underweight_normal) 0.85, 0.13, 0.02; (age_60_69, high, overweight) 0.75, 0.20, 0.05; (age_60_69, high, obese_mild) 0.65, 0.27, 0.08; (age_60_69, high, obese_severe) 0.55, 0.32, 0.13; (age_70_79, sedentary, underweight_normal) 0.35, 0.45, 0.20; (age_70_79, sedentary, overweight) 0.25, 0.45, 0.30; (age_70_79, sedentary, obese_mild) 0.15, 0.45, 0.40; (age_70_79, sedentary, obese_severe) 0.10, 0.40, 0.50; (age_70_79, low, underweight_normal) 0.50, 0.35, 0.15; (age_70_79, low, overweight) 0.40, 0.40, 0.20; (age_70_79, low, obese_mild) 0.30, 0.45, 0.25; (age_70_79, low, obese_severe) 0.20, 0.45, 0.35; (age_70_79, moderate, underweight_normal) 0.65, 0.27, 0.08; (age_70_79, moderate, overweight) 0.55, 0.32, 0.13; (age_70_79, moderate, obese_mild) 0.45, 0.37, 0.18; (age_70_79, moderate, obese_severe) 0.35, 0.40, 0.25; (age_70_79, high, underweight_normal) 0.70, 0.25, 0.05; (age_70_79, high, overweight) 0.60, 0.30, 0.10; (age_70_79, high, obese_mild) 0.50, 0.35, 0.15; (age_70_79, high, obese_severe) 0.40, 0.40, 0.20; (age_80_89, sedentary, underweight_normal) 0.15, 0.35, 0.50; (age_80_89, sedentary, overweight) 0.10, 0.30, 0.60; (age_80_89, sedentary, obese_mild) 0.05, 0.25, 0.70; (age_80_89, sedentary, obese_severe) 0.03, 0.20, 0.77; (age_80_89, low, underweight_normal) 0.25, 0.40, 0.35; (age_80_89, low, overweight) 0.20, 0.35, 0.45; (age_80_89, low, obese_mild) 0.15, 0.30, 0.55; (age_80_89, low, obese_severe) 0.10, 0.25, 0.65; (age_80_89, moderate, underweight_normal) 0.40, 0.35, 0.25; (age_80_89, moderate, overweight) 0.30, 0.40, 0.30; (age_80_89, moderate, obese_mild) 0.25, 0.35, 0.40; (age_80_89, moderate, obese_severe) 0.20, 0.30, 0.50; (age_80_89, high, underweight_normal) 0.50, 0.35, 0.15; (age_80_89, high, overweight) 0.40, 0.40, 0.20; (age_80_89, high, obese_mild) 0.30, 0.40, 0.30; (age_80_89, high, obese_severe) 0.25, 0.35, 0.40; (age_90_plus, sedentary, underweight_normal) 0.05, 0.20, 0.75; (age_90_plus, sedentary, overweight) 0.03, 0.15, 0.82; (age_90_plus, sedentary, obese_mild) 0.02, 0.10, 0.88; (age_90_plus, sedentary, obese_severe) 0.01, 0.07, 0.92; (age_90_plus, low, underweight_normal) 0.10, 0.25, 0.65; (age_90_plus, low, overweight) 0.07, 0.20, 0.73; (age_90_plus, low, obese_mild) 0.05, 0.15, 0.80; (age_90_plus, low, obese_severe) 0.03, 0.12, 0.85; (age_90_plus, moderate, underweight_normal) 0.20, 0.30, 0.50; (age_90_plus, moderate, overweight) 0.15, 0.25, 0.60; (age_90_plus, moderate, obese_mild) 0.10, 0.20, 0.70; (age_90_plus, moderate, obese_severe) 0.07, 0.15, 0.78; (age_90_plus, high, underweight_normal) 0.30, 0.35, 0.35; (age_90_plus, high, overweight) 0.25, 0.30, 0.45; (age_90_plus, high, obese_mild) 0.20, 0.25, 0.55; (age_90_plus, high, obese_severe) 0.15, 0.20, 0.65; } probability (Cognitive_Function | Age, Education_Level, Smoking_Status) { (age_60_69, primary_or_below, never) 0.75, 0.20, 0.05; (age_60_69, primary_or_below, former) 0.70, 0.23, 0.07; (age_60_69, primary_or_below, current) 0.60, 0.30, 0.10; (age_60_69, secondary, never) 0.80, 0.17, 0.03; (age_60_69, secondary, former) 0.75, 0.20, 0.05; (age_60_69, secondary, current) 0.65, 0.27, 0.08; (age_60_69, higher_education, never) 0.85, 0.13, 0.02; (age_60_69, higher_education, former) 0.80, 0.17, 0.03; (age_60_69, higher_education, current) 0.70, 0.25, 0.05; (age_70_79, primary_or_below, never) 0.60, 0.30, 0.10; (age_70_79, primary_or_below, former) 0.55, 0.33, 0.12; (age_70_79, primary_or_below, current) 0.45, 0.40, 0.15; (age_70_79, secondary, never) 0.70, 0.25, 0.05; (age_70_79, secondary, former) 0.65, 0.28, 0.07; (age_70_79, secondary, current) 0.55, 0.35, 0.10; (age_70_79, higher_education, never) 0.75, 0.22, 0.03; (age_70_79, higher_education, former) 0.70, 0.25, 0.05; (age_70_79, higher_education, current) 0.60, 0.32, 0.08; (age_80_89, primary_or_below, never) 0.40, 0.40, 0.20; (age_80_89, primary_or_below, former) 0.35, 0.40, 0.25; (age_80_89, primary_or_below, current) 0.25, 0.45, 0.30; (age_80_89, secondary, never) 0.50, 0.35, 0.15; (age_80_89, secondary, former) 0.45, 0.37, 0.18; (age_80_89, secondary, current) 0.35, 0.42, 0.23; (age_80_89, higher_education, never) 0.60, 0.30, 0.10; (age_80_89, higher_education, former) 0.55, 0.33, 0.12; (age_80_89, higher_education, current) 0.45, 0.40, 0.15; (age_90_plus, primary_or_below, never) 0.20, 0.45, 0.35; (age_90_plus, primary_or_below, former) 0.15, 0.45, 0.40; (age_90_plus, primary_or_below, current) 0.10, 0.40, 0.50; (age_90_plus, secondary, never) 0.30, 0.45, 0.25; (age_90_plus, secondary, former) 0.25, 0.45, 0.30; (age_90_plus, secondary, current) 0.20, 0.45, 0.35; (age_90_plus, higher_education, never) 0.40, 0.40, 0.20; (age_90_plus, higher_education, former) 0.35, 0.42, 0.23; (age_90_plus, higher_education, current) 0.25, 0.45, 0.30; } probability (Depression | Social_Support, Social_Engagement, Physical_Frailty) { (poor, low, robust) 0.40, 0.35, 0.25; (poor, low, pre_frail) 0.25, 0.40, 0.35; (poor, low, frail) 0.15, 0.35, 0.50; (poor, moderate, robust) 0.55, 0.30, 0.15; (poor, moderate, pre_frail) 0.40, 0.35, 0.25; (poor, moderate, frail) 0.25, 0.40, 0.35; (poor, high, robust) 0.65, 0.25, 0.10; (poor, high, pre_frail) 0.50, 0.35, 0.15; (poor, high, frail) 0.35, 0.40, 0.25; (moderate, low, robust) 0.60, 0.30, 0.10; (moderate, low, pre_frail) 0.45, 0.35, 0.20; (moderate, low, frail) 0.30, 0.40, 0.30; (moderate, moderate, robust) 0.75, 0.20, 0.05; (moderate, moderate, pre_frail) 0.60, 0.30, 0.10; (moderate, moderate, frail) 0.45, 0.35, 0.20; (moderate, high, robust) 0.80, 0.17, 0.03; (moderate, high, pre_frail) 0.70, 0.25, 0.05; (moderate, high, frail) 0.55, 0.32, 0.13; (good, low, robust) 0.70, 0.25, 0.05; (good, low, pre_frail) 0.55, 0.32, 0.13; (good, low, frail) 0.40, 0.40, 0.20; (good, moderate, robust) 0.85, 0.13, 0.02; (good, moderate, pre_frail) 0.75, 0.20, 0.05; (good, moderate, frail) 0.60, 0.30, 0.10; (good, high, robust) 0.90, 0.08, 0.02; (good, high, pre_frail) 0.80, 0.17, 0.03; (good, high, frail) 0.70, 0.25, 0.05; } // Variable de résultat finale probability (Global_Autonomy | Physical_Frailty, Cognitive_Function, Depression, Social_Support) { (robust, normal, absent_mild, poor) 0.70, 0.20, 0.08, 0.02; (robust, normal, absent_mild, moderate) 0.85, 0.12, 0.02, 0.01; (robust, normal, absent_mild, good) 0.90, 0.08, 0.01, 0.01; (robust, normal, moderate, poor) 0.50, 0.30, 0.15, 0.05; (robust, normal, moderate, moderate) 0.65, 0.25, 0.08, 0.02; (robust, normal, moderate, good) 0.75, 0.20, 0.04, 0.01; (robust, normal, severe, poor) 0.30, 0.35, 0.25, 0.10; (robust, normal, severe, moderate) 0.45, 0.30, 0.20, 0.05; (robust, normal, severe, good) 0.55, 0.30, 0.12, 0.03; (robust, mild_impairment, absent_mild, poor) 0.55, 0.25, 0.15, 0.05; (robust, mild_impairment, absent_mild, moderate) 0.70, 0.20, 0.08, 0.02; (robust, mild_impairment, absent_mild, good) 0.80, 0.15, 0.04, 0.01; (robust, mild_impairment, moderate, poor) 0.35, 0.35, 0.22, 0.08; (robust, mild_impairment, moderate, moderate) 0.50, 0.30, 0.15, 0.05; (robust, mild_impairment, moderate, good) 0.60, 0.27, 0.10, 0.03; (robust, mild_impairment, severe, poor) 0.20, 0.35, 0.30, 0.15; (robust, mild_impairment, severe, moderate) 0.30, 0.35, 0.25, 0.10; (robust, mild_impairment, severe, good) 0.40, 0.35, 0.20, 0.05; (robust, moderate_severe_impairment, absent_mild, poor) 0.40, 0.30, 0.20, 0.10; (robust, moderate_severe_impairment, absent_mild, moderate) 0.55, 0.25, 0.15, 0.05; (robust, moderate_severe_impairment, absent_mild, good) 0.65, 0.22, 0.10, 0.03; (robust, moderate_severe_impairment, moderate, poor) 0.25, 0.35, 0.27, 0.13; (robust, moderate_severe_impairment, moderate, moderate) 0.35, 0.35, 0.23, 0.07; (robust, moderate_severe_impairment, moderate, good) 0.45, 0.33, 0.17, 0.05; (robust, moderate_severe_impairment, severe, poor) 0.15, 0.30, 0.35, 0.20; (robust, moderate_severe_impairment, severe, moderate) 0.20, 0.35, 0.30, 0.15; (robust, moderate_severe_impairment, severe, good) 0.30, 0.35, 0.25, 0.10; (pre_frail, normal, absent_mild, poor) 0.50, 0.30, 0.15, 0.05; (pre_frail, normal, absent_mild, moderate) 0.65, 0.25, 0.08, 0.02; (pre_frail, normal, absent_mild, good) 0.75, 0.20, 0.04, 0.01; (pre_frail, normal, moderate, poor) 0.30, 0.35, 0.25, 0.10; (pre_frail, normal, moderate, moderate) 0.45, 0.33, 0.17, 0.05; (pre_frail, normal, moderate, good) 0.55, 0.30, 0.12, 0.03; (pre_frail, normal, severe, poor) 0.20, 0.35, 0.30, 0.15; (pre_frail, normal, severe, moderate) 0.30, 0.35, 0.25, 0.10; (pre_frail, normal, severe, good) 0.40, 0.35, 0.20, 0.05; (pre_frail, mild_impairment, absent_mild, poor) 0.35, 0.35, 0.22, 0.08; (pre_frail, mild_impairment, absent_mild, moderate) 0.50, 0.30, 0.15, 0.05; (pre_frail, mild_impairment, absent_mild, good) 0.60, 0.27, 0.10, 0.03; (pre_frail, mild_impairment, moderate, poor) 0.20, 0.35, 0.30, 0.15; (pre_frail, mild_impairment, moderate, moderate) 0.30, 0.35, 0.25, 0.10; (pre_frail, mild_impairment, moderate, good) 0.40, 0.35, 0.20, 0.05; (pre_frail, mild_impairment, severe, poor) 0.12, 0.28, 0.35, 0.25; (pre_frail, mild_impairment, severe, moderate) 0.20, 0.35, 0.30, 0.15; (pre_frail, mild_impairment, severe, good) 0.25, 0.35, 0.27, 0.13; (pre_frail, moderate_severe_impairment, absent_mild, poor) 0.25, 0.35, 0.27, 0.13; (pre_frail, moderate_severe_impairment, absent_mild, moderate) 0.35, 0.35, 0.23, 0.07; (pre_frail, moderate_severe_impairment, absent_mild, good) 0.45, 0.33, 0.17, 0.05; (pre_frail, moderate_severe_impairment, moderate, poor) 0.15, 0.30, 0.35, 0.20; (pre_frail, moderate_severe_impairment, moderate, moderate) 0.20, 0.35, 0.30, 0.15; (pre_frail, moderate_severe_impairment, moderate, good) 0.30, 0.35, 0.25, 0.10; (pre_frail, moderate_severe_impairment, severe, poor) 0.08, 0.22, 0.40, 0.30; (pre_frail, moderate_severe_impairment, severe, moderate) 0.12, 0.28, 0.35, 0.25; (pre_frail, moderate_severe_impairment, severe, good) 0.18, 0.32, 0.32, 0.18; (frail, normal, absent_mild, poor) 0.30, 0.35, 0.25, 0.10; (frail, normal, absent_mild, moderate) 0.45, 0.33, 0.17, 0.05; (frail, normal, absent_mild, good) 0.55, 0.30, 0.12, 0.03; (frail, normal, moderate, poor) 0.20, 0.35, 0.30, 0.15; (frail, normal, moderate, moderate) 0.25, 0.35, 0.27, 0.13; (frail, normal, moderate, good) 0.35, 0.35, 0.23, 0.07; (frail, normal, severe, poor) 0.12, 0.28, 0.35, 0.25; (frail, normal, severe, moderate) 0.18, 0.32, 0.32, 0.18; (frail, normal, severe, good) 0.25, 0.35, 0.27, 0.13; (frail, mild_impairment, absent_mild, poor) 0.20, 0.35, 0.30, 0.15; (frail, mild_impairment, absent_mild, moderate) 0.30, 0.35, 0.25, 0.10; (frail, mild_impairment, absent_mild, good) 0.40, 0.35, 0.20, 0.05; (frail, mild_impairment, moderate, poor) 0.12, 0.28, 0.35, 0.25; (frail, mild_impairment, moderate, moderate) 0.18, 0.32, 0.32, 0.18; (frail, mild_impairment, moderate, good) 0.25, 0.35, 0.27, 0.13; (frail, mild_impairment, severe, poor) 0.05, 0.20, 0.40, 0.35; (frail, mild_impairment, severe, moderate) 0.08, 0.22, 0.40, 0.30; (frail, mild_impairment, severe, good) 0.12, 0.28, 0.35, 0.25; (frail, moderate_severe_impairment, absent_mild, poor) 0.15, 0.30, 0.35, 0.20; (frail, moderate_severe_impairment, absent_mild, moderate) 0.20, 0.35, 0.30, 0.15; (frail, moderate_severe_impairment, absent_mild, good) 0.30, 0.35, 0.25, 0.10; (frail, moderate_severe_impairment, moderate, poor) 0.08, 0.22, 0.40, 0.30; (frail, moderate_severe_impairment, moderate, moderate) 0.12, 0.28, 0.35, 0.25; (frail, moderate_severe_impairment, moderate, good) 0.18, 0.32, 0.32, 0.18; (frail, moderate_severe_impairment, severe, poor) 0.03, 0.12, 0.35, 0.50; (frail, moderate_severe_impairment, severe, moderate) 0.05, 0.20, 0.40, 0.35; (frail, moderate_severe_impairment, severe, good) 0.08, 0.22, 0.40, 0.30; }